The Canadian Investor - The Best 30 Canadian Compounders Ranked

Episode Date: August 26, 2024

Braden hops on the mic for a solo episode discussing 30 Canadian Compounders that have had great returns over the last 10 years. From garbage collection to real estate services, there have been some T...SX listed stocks that have been favourable to shareholders.  Braden goes through some stats and a hot take on each one moving forward.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Starting point is 00:00:00 Welcome back into the show. This is the Canadian Investor Podcast, made possible by our friends and show sponsor, EQ Bank, which helps Canadians make bank with high interest and no fees on everyday banking. We also love their savings and investment products like GICs, which offer some of the best rates on the market. I personally, and I know Simone as well, is using the GICs, which offer some of the best rates on the market. I personally, and I know Simone as well, is using the GICs on a regular basis to set money aside for personal income taxes in April of every year. Their GICs are perfect because the interest rate is guaranteed, and I know I won't be able to touch that money until I need it for tax time. Whether you're looking to set some money aside for a rainy day or a big purchase is
Starting point is 00:00:45 coming through the pipeline or simply want to lower the risk of your overall investment portfolio, EQ Bank's GICs are a great option. The best thing about EQ Bank is that it is so easy to use. You can open an account and buy a GIC online in minutes. Take advantage of some of the best rates on the market today at eqbank.ca forward slash GIC. Again, eqbank.ca forward slash GIC. This is the Canadian Investor, where you take control of your own portfolio and gain the confidence you need to succeed in the markets. Hosted by Brayden Dennis and Simone Bélanger. The Canadian Investor Podcast. Welcome into the show. Now, for the first time in this podcast history, first time in my life, I am doing a solo adventure episode here. Simone's at his cottage, adventure episode here. Simone's at his cottage taking some time off for the summer as he should,
Starting point is 00:01:54 as he deserves. And I'm just going to hop on the mic here and go through a ton of Canadian stocks. Today is like Canadian stock rapid fire, but there's a very specific thread that weaves these companies together and topic that we're going to discuss. Now, the inspiration for today's show was a Twitter X thread from our boy CJ Opal. He's become pretty popular on Twitter for highlighting high quality Canadian companies. highlighting high quality Canadian companies. He's been very early to some what are now consensus compounders. And so a full shout out to him. And he basically just said, let's make a thread of all the Canadian quote unquote compounders. And so I added to the discussion, lots of folks added to the discussion. There's like over 60 comments, tons of different activity on the thread. And I've gone through and looked at all of them and consolidated a list of 30 Canadian stocks that fit this profile and had some overlap of multiple people suggesting it should be in the list. Of course, there are a lot more names that have done well, but this was the list widely
Starting point is 00:03:15 agreed upon for reasons of performance, business quality, and long-term business success. Some I agree with, some I think could be included, which I may throw in as honorary mentions along the way here. But the caveat here is don't shoot the messenger. Somewhat of an arbitrary definition, but what is a compounder? So to me, a compounder is a business of high quality, great management, a track record of good results and performance, where shareholders have generally been delighted to own the equity over long periods of time. I think that that's really important too. Owning quote unquote compounders is a long-term fundamental investor's nirvana. It's what I look to achieve. I look to own as many as I can for as long as I can. The idea of being a compounder essentially means that that equity has
Starting point is 00:04:15 compounded your capital over long periods of time, typically market beating returns. An example would be like the plan of Canadian Western Bank being acquired by National Bank has the stock up 100% in the past couple of weeks. Recency bias go, that's a great stock to own. Over the last 10 years, the stock has been flat. That is not a compounder. Maybe the company acquiring them, National Bank might fit the list. You'll have to stay tuned for the list here. So I'm going to do a countdown of all 30 stocks today from number 30 to number one in order of performance of the share price on a 10-year compound annual growth rate. I'm going to give a quick overview, not a deep dive, and then give my hot
Starting point is 00:05:05 take. And so let's get right into the mix. I used FinChat heavily for the purposes of recording and researching for this podcast. I used the co-pilot feature to get up to speed on some names that I didn't know particularly well. I love it for that because I can just be like, hey, what does this company do? I've never heard of it before. Give me the 101. And then of course, I made a little dashboard with the performance, the dividend per share, and the earnings per share growth over the last 10 years. Without further delay, number 30 through number one, based on 10-year compound annual growth performance on the share price, not total return. CN Rail. CN Rail is a well-known blue chip. Maybe the blue chip of all blue chip is the Canadian rail companies.
Starting point is 00:06:11 And founded in 1919, history goes way, way back, operating a network of nearly 20,000 route miles spanning Canada and the US. CN Rail has become a staple of our industrial world in North America. staple of our industrial world in North America. Now, the stock has done a compound annual growth rate of 7.4%. The dividend has grown 13.4% on average of the last 10 years, and they've grown earnings per share at about 10%. So you have this extremely lindy business infrastructure that's been in the ground for 100 years, probably going to be in the ground for another 100 years or more. And really, you see it around that 10% mark on diluted earnings per share compound annual growth rate. Somewhere between 8% and 10% is probably a pretty safe bet for quite a long run here as it is a play on macro. Next up, Canadian Natural Resources, ticker CNQ. The stock has done
Starting point is 00:07:17 an average around 8% over the last 10 years before dividends. So its total return has been quite fantastic. Dividend per share has grown at nearly 18% and their earnings per share has grown around 9% during that timeframe on average. Wow. Now 76 billion in market cap. So a massive company. Look, in my view, CNQ is one of the best run oil and gas energy stock names you can find, not only in Canada, but in the world. Now, by the way, I just listed that market cap. That's in US dollars. So it is actually over a hundred billion in market cap in Canadian dollars, my mistake. And it's sporting like, you know, four and a half percent dividend yield here. Now, exploration, development, production, marketing of crude oil, natural gas, natural
Starting point is 00:08:15 gas liquids. It's not the way I invest owning energy stocks and commoditized stocks, commoditized products. But this is probably the one I would own if I had to. All right, let's move on to national bank. Compound annual growth rate, 9% in the last 10 years. The dividends grown by 8.74% and the exact same pretty much on earnings per share during that time. National has been a sneaky, sneaky good stock to own over the long run. They're doing something pretty interesting here by taking out Canadian Western Bank to have kind of that global footprint. National has really, really strong market share in Quebec.
Starting point is 00:09:06 And the management team has been very, very successful. I've seen them do some pretty interesting stuff as well in Latin America, them in Scotia. I'm not sure how those bets are paying off. But overall, I think they've been one of the best managed Canadian banks. overall, I think they've been one of the best managed Canadian banks. And just being a little bit smaller and a little bit more nimble, I suspect has been an advantage. All right, next up, Canadian Pacific, now bundled in with Kansas City. So CPKC, ticker CP on the TSX. Stocks compounded around 9.5% and earnings per share growth at 12. It's grown the dividend by over 10% a year. Not much more to say beyond my assessment of CN Rail. I think both companies are fantastic. I'm not a shareholder in either of them, but I'd have no problem being a shareholder
Starting point is 00:10:05 in either of them or both of them. CP does have a pretty nice leg up. The market cap is now higher than CN Rail, which is interesting. It does have a nice leg up having that rail network all the way into Mexico. I would say that is a pretty distinct advantage. That's kind of like a once in a lifetime type acquisition. And the fact that they pulled it off is pretty cool. From here, I mean, it does trade at a higher multiple. I'd be happy to own either of them. This is a Visa MasterCard situation with me. It's like, yes, they have that advantage now going through Mexico, but it is relatively very similar story. As do-it-yourself investors, we want to keep our fees low. That's why Simone and I have been using Questrade as our online broker
Starting point is 00:11:00 for so many years now. Questrade is Canada's number one rated online broker by MoneySense, and with them, you can buy all North American ETFs, not just a few select ones, all commission-free, so that you can choose the ETFs that you want. And they charge no annual RRSP or TFSA account fees. They have an award-winning customer service team with real people that are ready to help if you have questions along the way. As a customer myself, I've been impressed with Questrade's customer service. Whenever I call or email, every support rep is very knowledgeable and they get exactly what I need done quickly. Switch for free. That is questrade.com. Calling all DIY do-it-yourself investors, Blossom is an essential app for you. It has been blowing up with now more than 50,000 Canadians plus and growing who are using the app. Every time I go on
Starting point is 00:12:02 there, I am shocked. The engagement is amazing. This is a really vibrant community that they're building. And people share their portfolios, their trades, their investment ideas in real time. And it's all built on the concept of transparency because brokerage accounts are linked. And then once you link your brokerage account, you can get in-depth portfolio insights, track your dividends, and there's other stuff like learning Duolingo style education lessons that are completely free. You can search up Blossom Social in the app store and join the community today. I'm on there. I encourage you go on there and follow me, search me up. Some of the YouTubers and influencers and podcasters that you might know,
Starting point is 00:12:41 I bet you they're already on there. People are just on there talking, sharing their investment ideas, and using the analytics tools. So go ahead, blossom social in the app store, and I'll see you there. Here on the show, we talk about companies with strong two-sided networks make for the best products. I'm going to spend this coming February and March in an Airbnb in South Florida for a combination of work and vacation and realized, hey, my place could be a great Airbnb while I'm away. Since it's just going to be sitting empty, it could make some extra income. But there are still so many people who don't even think about hosting on Airbnb or think it's a lot of work to get started. But now it is easier than ever with Airbnb's
Starting point is 00:13:32 new co-host network. You can hire a local quality co-host to take care of your home and guests. It's a win-win since you make some extra money hosting on Airbnb, but can still focus on enjoying your time away. Find a co-host at airbnb.ca forward slash host. That is airbnb.ca forward slash host. Next up, ATS Corporation. This is the automation business, ticker ATS on the TSX, just around three and a half billion in market cap. The stock's compounded around 10 and a half percent. They haven't paid a dividend, but during that time, the stock has grown significantly on earnings per share at 11%. I'm trying to look now, do they pay a dividend now? No, they don't. So there you go. Now, this company has been low key, very acquisitive. And I think it deserves another
Starting point is 00:14:36 look here. I think the price is fairly good here. So for those who do not know, they're providing automation solutions worldwide, design, build, commissioning of robots for manufacturing and assembly. They have exploded in robotics in the life sciences space. That's now their biggest segment. And it's not one I understand well. So I think I know manufacturing much better than automation and life sciences. But I know people have done quite well with this name, hauled it for a long time. And it's been around for a long time. I think the company was founded in the late 70s. All right, moving on. Another name here, another Canadian name, Stella Jones, ticker SJ. The stock has done
Starting point is 00:15:30 quite well, compounding over 11%. The dividend has grown by nearly 16% during that time on compound annual growth rate. And same with earnings. Side comment, I like seeing, I'm not a dividend guy. A lot of these Canadian stocks are dividend payers. I would say a majority of them. I'm not a big dividend investor myself, but I do like seeing the earnings per share and dividend growth being relatively aligned. So they've maintained their payout ratio to a conservative amount as they continue to grow and scale, reward shareholders, but not increase it much, much faster than earnings per share. Because I believe these companies should take retained earnings and keep investing in the business, especially if it's sub $5 billion in market cap here. So Stella Jones has been a very successful play here on pressure-treated wood.
Starting point is 00:16:37 I believe their bread and butter is in two categories of railroad operators being their customer in terms of wood and utility poles, like those electrical poles you'll see. I believe those are their two bread and butter products for their pressure treated wood. It was started in 1992 and shareholders have done quite well. Again, not my type of business, just because input costs are so random and variable and pricing power is tricky, but they've done incredibly well. EQ Bank. EQ Bank. Long time sponsor of the show on this list. There's got to be some correlation there sponsoring the podcast. Now, EQ Bank has had such a successful story with their EQ Bank product. The stock's grown compounding the growth rate over the last 10 years at 11.3%, including a massive drawdown when I think it got thrown out with home capitals issues
Starting point is 00:17:46 that it had in 2018. That's when I became a shareholder in 2018. I've held onto the stock ever since. Now, EQ Bank, they obviously are a lender and a bank providing services to retail and commercial customers in Canada through the Holdco being equitable group and then Equitable Bank providing those services, but also their new digital EQ bank product has been very, very successful. And I think it just comes down to it's a good product and counter positioned against the canadian banks is a pretty good place to live i mean a lot of people have really poor experiences with them counter position to it offer a great product and i'm not just saying this because they sponsor the
Starting point is 00:18:36 podcast but i'm pumped for their business banking as like i use a big Canadian bank for my business bank. And dude, it sucks. Like sometimes it's just down with no explanation. Like how is this 150 billion in market cap bank, their service just down right now? It's mind blowing to me. All right, let's move on to Fairfax. Now, Fairfax, headed up by what people have touted, the Warren Buffett of Canada, Prem Watsa, has been a company I frankly just never really understand. It is a conglomerate. They're doing lots of insurance, reinsurance. And I think that's the Buffett comparison here. But they've also been pretty acquisitive and astute with capital of various other businesses, like very agnostic.
Starting point is 00:19:37 And it's done quite well, especially as of late. Now, in terms of financial performance, stock's done 12%. The dividend's grown a little bit and earnings per share have grown 21% during that time. I think that's why the stock has ran up so fast is it was loved, then unloved, and then loved again while the business kept compounding. And so the stock price had to catch up a little bit in the last few years. Let's move on to Collier's International. Now, Collier's and First Service, you know, spoiler alert, First Service is also on this list.
Starting point is 00:20:19 Collier's and First Service have a very interesting history together. And both stocks have made it into this list. Really, really successful in the real estate world here with Collier's professional investment management services for mostly corporate and institutional clients, brokerage services, debt origination, equity capital raising, market value, acquisition advisory in M&A. They have been a really important service business in this country for real estate. And the business has done quite fantastic over time. It's managed extremely well. Stock's done 12.4% on average and diluted earnings per share have exploded at around 38% during that time. Another insurance company which has just
Starting point is 00:21:15 low key continued to surprise me, Intact Financial, ticker IFC. Intact Financial came on my radar when I was looking for a bunch of quotes because they own one of the subsidiaries of Bel Air Direct. And I still, to this day, anecdotally, have not been able to get cheaper car insurance and better service in terms of instant quote, quick turnaround and low fees than Bel Air Direct. And Intact Financial has continued to do extremely well. I mean, they have been huge in the auto space and then they just bundle with their home. It's been quite successful. Next up, BRP, a stock I have owned for quite some time now. Mid-cap name, less than $10 billion, more than $5 billion in market cap. The stock hasn't done particularly hot as of late, but during that time, it's still grown on average 13% year over year. Earnings per share
Starting point is 00:22:27 have exploded 30% on a CAGR. Wild success BRP has been since spun out of Bombardier recreational products. The ticker is DOO for do, which is a play on their two flagship products, Sea-Do, which are jet skis, and Skid-Do, which are snowmobiles. Look, this is a consumer discretionary company, without a doubt, selling recreational products. They sell boats, motors, they've done some acquisitions, but really those two flagship products, jet skis and snowmobiles, and also all-terrain vehicles, ATVs, have been their bread and butter. Just a blast.
Starting point is 00:23:12 These products are so fun to use. The reason the stock has done so well on an EPS number, like you're looking at 30% during that time, They have bought back a lot of shares. I think the stock is cheap here today. You actually want to buy these names when you're out of the cycle. This is a cyclical company. You're going to see periods of mega growth and pretty big pullbacks in its financials because it's as consumer discretionary as they get. So it's not a stock that you can just hold and it goes up and to the right all the time. You have to know that it's going to have some ups and downs as a consumer discretionary name. But if you track what matters, which is market share gains over time, the upper middle class are buying their CDs and jet skis no matter what.
Starting point is 00:24:21 And so you have some baseline there. The on top gravy is definitely going to be cyclical to the economy. I've always said around cyclical names, you want to buy them when they're at high PE, which is so hard and contradictory to the brain. You want to buy cyclical stocks when the PE is high. That's because the earnings are depressed. You're going to have a high PE. That's when the stock's actually cheap. I know, hard to map that out in your brain. All right, next up, Brookfield. Brookfield Corp. I'm just going to bundle all of Brookfield into the corp, ticker BN. Many of the subsidiaries have done well, namely the infrastructure partners,
Starting point is 00:25:05 biz. Let's bundle them all in together here because we just have a lot more history to work off of as well. Stocks done at compounding growth rate of around 13% and cash from operations, got to use that number instead, not earnings per share of around 10% year over year. Now, the numbers with Brookfield are always confusing, right? You've got the subsidiaries, it's the spinoffs, the asset management business is spun off. It's been a confusing story. Some investors have, I think, correctly labeled it a
Starting point is 00:25:39 bit of a black box. However, there are very few companies on this planet that can do what Brookfield can do. And the management team is highly incentivized. They own a ton of stock headed up by Bruce Flatt, who's been with the business now for, I don't know, got to be close to 30 years in the CEO seat. They've tagged on Oaktree with Howard Marks. They've done lots of interesting spinoffs. We're looking at probably any minute now, they hit a trillion of AUM across all of the things that they do, whether it's real estate, the reinsurance business, the infrastructure business, and the renewable power company.
Starting point is 00:26:21 This is a bet on the management team. It has been, it will continue to be. And yeah, I am long the stock. All right, TMX Group. Ticker X on the TSX, the stock's done wonderful, 14.5% on average the last 10 years. And earnings per share has grown 17% during that time. It's been a low key compounder and they also operate the TSX Venture, the TSX Alpha Exchange. The business is moving more and more towards high-margin recurring revenue business with derivatives trading and clearing, analytics, obviously the listings business with equities and fixed income trading. But it's really exciting with these types of what I'll call financial infrastructure companies. Let's just make a quick basket here for you guys to wrap your head around to that. The NASDAQ, the ICE, which operates the New York Stock Exchange, TMX, S&P Global, Moody's Corp,
Starting point is 00:27:54 you have Refinitiv under the London Stock Exchange. A lot of them own and operate some sort of own and operate some sort of geographical monopoly with the exchange business. And then what they're able to do beyond that with analytics and start charging, not only listing fees, but every time there's a new Robin Hood of the world that pops up, they need to get direct pricing feeds from the exchange. There are other data providers like an S&P, like an LSAC, like a Moody's, Morningstar, like a FinChat. Get data from those places. But you've got to pipe in direct feeds for pricing of equity and fixed income through from the exchange. And so they operate that monopoly. They take that cash and then they invest in strategic things on top. It's a pretty good model. It is a pretty good model. Is this thing going to shoot the lights
Starting point is 00:28:56 off returns moving forward? No, but you do have kind of a regulated monopoly. All right. CGI Inc, ticker GIB. It's always thrown me off that CGI has ticker GIB, but CGI has been a Canadian tech consulting company. The stocks returned 15% on average during that time and cash from operations has grown almost 13%. Nope. No, I had that wrong. That's the wrong one. Earnings per share has grown 11% during that time. CGI has been very acquisitive of buying, rolling up services, very similar to Accenture,
Starting point is 00:29:41 which is tech consulting. Very similar to a WSP, which I may or may not talk about soon. Rolling up services, very similar to a first service corporation. You have a niche vertical of services. In this case of CGI, you are doing tech consulting, IT consulting, cloud migrations for governments and corporations. And what you can do is just keep rolling them up. These services business is highly fragmented. You keep buying them. You keep doing smart acquisitions. You can do upsells once you have integrated these services together. It's like, okay, I'll use the engineering example. It's like, okay,
Starting point is 00:30:25 I used to be able to do your land surveying only, but now also I can do your permitting and all your applications with the government. Oh, and now, by the way, I can also do your stormwater ponds because we just bought some company that does that. And by the way, now we're actually going to do full stack start to finish for some civil engineering project. These acquisitions make sense. They've worked and these roll-ups do work. All right. Main Street Equity Corp. I don't know this business particularly well. It's only around just short of 2 billion in market cap. Stock's done extremely well. 16% on average during that time. I'd ask Finchette what they do. Main Street Equity Corp engages in the acquisition, divestiture, value enhancement, and management of multifamily residential properties in Western
Starting point is 00:31:17 Canada. Company owns portfolio of res properties, Vancouver, Calgary, Alberta, Company owns portfolio of res properties, Vancouver, Calgary, Alberta, Southern Alberta, Edmonton, Saskatoon, Regina. They have 15,000 revity producing units. Okay. So it's a REIT, but not traded like a REIT. That's what it looks like. As do-it-yourself investors, we want to keep our fees low. That's why Simone and I have been using Questrade as our online broker for so many years now. Questrade is Canada's number one rated online broker by MoneySense, and with them, you can buy all North American ETFs, not just a few select ones, all commission free so that you can choose the ETFs that you want. And they charge no annual RRSP or TFSA account fees. They have an award
Starting point is 00:32:06 winning customer service team with real people that are ready to help if you have questions along the way. As a customer myself, I've been impressed with Questrade's customer service. Whenever I call or email, every support rep is very knowledgeable and they get exactly what I need done quickly. Switch for free today and keep more of your money. Visit questrade.com for details. That is questrade.com. Calling all DIY, do-it-yourself investors. Blossom is an essential app for you. It has been blowing up with now more than 50,000 Canadians plus and growing who are using the app. Every time I go on there, I am shocked. The engagement is amazing. This is
Starting point is 00:32:52 a really vibrant community that they're building. And people share their portfolios, their trades, their investment ideas in real time. And it's all built on the concept of transparency because brokerage accounts are linked. And then once you link your brokerage account, you can get in-depth portfolio insights, track your dividends, and there's other stuff like learning Duolingo style education lessons that are completely free. You can search up Blossom Social in the app store and join the community today. I'm on there. I encourage you, go on there and follow me, search me up. Some of the YouTubers and influencers and podcasters that you might know, I bet you they're already on there. People
Starting point is 00:33:29 are just on there talking, sharing their investment ideas and using the analytics tools. So go ahead, blossom social in the app store and I'll see you there. Here on the show, we talk about companies with strong two-sided networks make for the best products. I'm going to spend this coming February and March in an Airbnb in South Florida for a combination of work and vacation and realized, hey, my place could be a great Airbnb while I'm away. Since it's just going to be sitting empty, it could make some extra income. But there are still so many people who don't even think about hosting on Airbnb or think it's a lot of work to get started. But now it is easier than ever with Airbnb's new co-host network. You can hire a local quality co-host to take care of your home and guests. It's a win-win
Starting point is 00:34:26 since you make some extra money hosting on Airbnb, but can still focus on enjoying your time away. Find a co-host at airbnb.ca forward slash host. That is airbnb.ca forward slash host. dot C-A forward slash host. All right, moving on to Toramont. Now Toramont is a stock I used to own based on these numbers. It looks like it probably should have kept owning. Toramont, ticker T-I-H on the TSX, stock's done 16.3% the last 10 years on average, and earnings per share has grown up nearly 15% during that time. So very similar numbers. Torremont is a rental operator for construction equipment. You probably see a little Torremont on the side of the highway as you drive down a major series highway in Canada. highway in Canada. They have been the behemoth player under their subsidiaries. So the equipment group and CIMCO, which is rentals and service for mobile equipment and refrigeration systems for Simcoe. But the equipment group, Battlefield is one of the main brands that they operate. And you'll see Battlefield branded Caterpillars or other
Starting point is 00:35:47 types of equipment manufacturers. So this world was surprising to me where if you're a construction company, it's actually a lot more, it can be a lot more beneficial to rent basically everything you need for that job site, even though you're a large scale operator of big government projects like major series highways. And so if you're going up to the site, you need to do fencing security systems for the job site, Battlefield would do that. Okay, I need to get 40 diggers, 40 backhoes, whatever the job site requires. I might just go to Toromont and rent all of that equipment directly from them. That stock's done incredibly well. And the stock's done incredibly well. All right. Another surprising one to me is Thomson Reuters. Now, what has seemed to me like an older legacy business, ticker TRI on the TSX, they have done so well with legal software acquisitions and have completely surprised me. Stocks done 17%
Starting point is 00:37:08 on average and earnings per share has up 23.6%. I think I've came on here and been critical of some of the assets they own and the legacy assets they own in the financial software world where I live. And I still hold that sentiment, but they've taken that capital and been really smart with buying software for legal professionals, corporates, and tax and accounting. So yes, the Reuters news and global print business may have lost some steam, but they have taken that capital and made great returns on it in other spaces in what I'll call professional software. So good for them. Long-term Canadian brand. So I'm actually quite happy to see Thompson do well. Boyd. Boyd Group Services Inc, ticker BYD on the TSX.
Starting point is 00:38:07 Boyd Group Services Inc, ticker BYD on the TSX. Auto collision repair roll-up. Brilliant management. They've done extremely well. I think the stock's on a bit of a pullback right now. Don't quote me. Maybe worth a look here. The stock's done 17% on average during that time and earnings per share has compounded at nearly 10%. It's cash from operations up 27%. Really impressive execution from Boyd. Not much more to say there, auto collision. All right, Kushtar, which is in the news again right now for potentially wanting to take out 7-Eleven, acquire 7-Eleven stores from the Japanese Holdco. This would make for a monster, monster deal. I think they're going to have to raise somewhere between $30 and $40 billion to do it, but this would cement them firmly as the largest convenience
Starting point is 00:39:01 store operator in the world. I mean, Khrushchev already is one of the operator in the world. I mean, Crestar already is one of the largest in the world. And the stock has compounded at 17.5% over the last 10 years, and it's per share up 15%. They've grown the dividend to over 20% a year during that time. Look, you have a boring business of convenience stores with the best operators of convenience stores in history out of Quebec here in Canada. It's just amazing what they have done. And the business now can look a lot more like 7-Eleven in the future. And what I mean by that is trying to get people to come into the store for more than just like a quick gas stop, which will still continue to be their bread and butter. But there's a lot of really high margin things that they can do by positioning the stores in very convenient locations as the convenience store suggests. suggests. Couchstar is one of those businesses where it's like, they can't keep getting away with this. Where it's like, convenience stores, C-stores does not seem like a fantastic business,
Starting point is 00:40:10 really. Fuel margins are whatever. They fluctuate constantly. What's this world look like with electrics cars in the future if you maybe don't have to go fuel up at the pump. And it probably looks more and more like 7-Eleven in the future because those businesses, when you go to Asia and see the market share and the presence that they have, it's not just a truck stop Red Bull experience. It's more than that. i'm moving on to waste connections to go wcn maybe compounder bro of all compounder bro stocks here with uh acquiring the mom and pop shops of garbage collection around north america very similar playbook to GFL on the waste side if you back out green infrastructure partners, which they did actually. Stock's grown at 18% on average over the last 10 years and
Starting point is 00:41:14 have grown the dividend 14%. Earnings per share has grown over 10%. This is waste collection. waste collection. So recurring stable staple of a business with really smart capital allocation in acquisitions. It's actually a pretty easy playbook to understand why it's worked, right? It's waste collection is very, very fragmented around North America. There is still so many targets for them to go after. I'd be happy to own the stock. It's perennially expensive. It's always such an expensive stock. Every time I look at it, I'm like, this thing doesn't grow fast enough to justify this multiple. And it hasn't mattered what you paid. I've been wrong because it hadn't really mattered the multiple you've paid because they keep executing. Now, I think you kind of throw out your margin of safety with that methodology of investing,
Starting point is 00:42:17 but I'd be happy to own Waste Connections. All right. My submission, which got some love, thankfully, in the thread was WSP Global. WSP is an engineering firm, which mostly focuses in the civil space. Buildings, environmental services, and consulting have been their bread and butter. And the stock has compounded at 20%. Cashflow during that time has compounded at nearly 25%. Look, same thesis as Waste Connections. You have NCGI. You have very fragmented world of engineering services around the world. There are so many 40, 50, 150 person civil engineering firms around the world that have awesome long-term relationships with businesses and governments around the world for
Starting point is 00:43:13 consulting services. And they just scoop them up. They've done, I think, nearly 125 acquisitions to date. This is just kind of very quietly been done tons of actually they did and they've done big ones. They've done small ones. They've done, you know, small mom and pop 5060 type engineering firms to massive 2 billion acquisition takeout of environmental services company Golder, which was in my world before I started FinChat. I've owned the stock since 2018, if memory serves me correctly. Kind of always trades at a fair to expensive price, but I think mostly fair. I think they can keep rolling up names globally. They're not confined to a North American network too. They can keep doing global acquisitions.
Starting point is 00:44:07 keep doing global acquisitions. It's over 20 billion US in market cap now. What is it in Canadian? It's nearly 30 billion in market cap now on the TSX. And I like the stock now. I've liked it for a long time and I'll continue to own it. All right, moving forward. Same story. I've owned this one for a long time too. TFI International. There's a recurring theme here with high quality Canadian performance, which is acquisition based companies. TFI International definitely fits that bill. They buy, operate extremely well, distress trucking companies across North America, integrate them, make them more profitable. And they've been very disciplined along the way. The stock's done 22% a year on average over 10 years. Earnings per shares exploded up 28% per year. Look, I mean, trucking, again, very boring. Long-term, they have done...
Starting point is 00:45:12 I like seeing acquirers like TFI that can demonstrate that they can do small tuck-in of distressed assets and then also carve out something massive like UPS's freight business for just $800 million. Excel on last mile delivery as e-commerce grew. They've just been very opportunistic. They've been very opportunistic. Whatever Alain Bedard, him and Alain Bouchard from Couch Bedard, uh, him and, um, Elaine Bouchard from Couchtard. Something's in the water there with high quality, long-term performance of acquisitive companies out of Quebec. So there's something to whatever they're doing. WSP fits that bill as well.
Starting point is 00:46:03 Uh, whatever they're doing, keep doing it. They operate 50,000 trailers,'re doing, keep doing it. They operate 50,000 trailers, almost 15,000 tractors, and have almost 10,000 independent contractors. Most people know the company as Transforce because all the trucks used to be called Transforce, and then they just rebranded to TFI in a little swoop. It's pretty low key when you see the trucks on the highway now. All right, moving on to GoEasy Financial. Another how do they keep getting away with this?
Starting point is 00:46:38 GoEasy is subprime payday lender type of name. The stock's compounded at 23%. Earnings per share has grown 28%. This is a financial lending company and their quarterly revenue looks like a beautiful software co. It's so sticky and recurring. And it's not a company I would feel particularly great about owning. With Easy Financial and Easy Home, I do think that they, I don't know if take advantage is the right word, but they definitely benefit from lower income Canadians and giving them very high APR loans. Loans and then also the financing on home products like furniture. You can finance like an Xbox for like 48% APR or something outrageous. Auto loans, point of sale financing. I am shocked this has continued to work at the scale it's gone to. But clearly the management team has done something right. All right, Dollarama. Dollarama stock has compounded 24% per year. Earnings per share has
Starting point is 00:47:54 grown nearly 20% per year. This is the dream retail concept. The dream retail concept. dream retail concept. The dream retail concept. I really can't think of a better retail concept. Gross margins are amazing. They run the business. They run them so lean. You have like one or two people working there at any time. The product is good. Yes, of course, it's low quality stuff, but it's what you want. I'm spending $2 on something. I know exactly what I'm getting when I go there. And it's consistent. They continue to operate and grow the store count by like 60 per year. I love the model.
Starting point is 00:48:41 I've just been bearish on, I think I've been wrongly bearish on their continued expansion because they eventually will hit a wall. It's a very Canadian brand. They're way better operators and margin profile than any of the dollar stores in south of the border in the US. But where's the next leg? If I can answer that question, I'd be long the stock in size. All right, TerraVest, ticker TVK. TerraVest has compounded at 30%. I am a shareholder now, earnings per share, cashflow operations, over 30% during that time. Bit of a turnaround story. Started as very small. It's still less than $2 billion in market cap still. Let's take a look.
Starting point is 00:49:27 Yeah, still less than $2 billion in market cap here on the TSX. So this is going to sound different than what people who are familiar with the company on because, of course, they operate tanks and fuel containment processing equipment. But the bet is on steel, steel products. And that's what Dustin Ha specified very clearly in their latest Investor Day, which I was listening to live. It's not many people were on the call. He made it very clear that the business is about steel.
Starting point is 00:50:07 And of course, when you have fuel containment, processing containment, transport trailers of liquefied petroleum grass, service trucks, storage tanks, they're the propane storage cowboys. But since they're also doing stuff with boilers and furnaces in the HVAC segment, the bet is on steel when they acquire something for just a few times owner's earnings and then get huge economies of scale because the main manufacturing component of everything that threads their businesses together is steel. And so they can turn something that they bought just for a few times owner's earnings a few years back, grow the business organically. The organic growth has
Starting point is 00:50:57 been fantastic. And their largest input cost in the manufacturing process for a storage tank being steel, they get economies of scale on. There is real synergy. Usually synergies are overstated. I think that there is real synergies here. I suspect they have another 400 targets they could take out over the next, I don't know, a couple of decades. Dustin Haas still in his forties, the CEO. I'm long the propane cowboys. It's a small position for me. The stocks popped again on successful results here just last week. First Service. First Service has been a phenomenal Canadian story. First Service operates through its various subsidiaries, their residential and first service brands with property management
Starting point is 00:51:46 being the big hitter. So condo boards, cooperatives, homeowner associations, master plan communities, adult community, adult lifestyle communities, retirement homes, these types of residential developments, you need a company to operate them, do the cleaning, maintain the cleaning of the elevators and the park aids and the various things that come up that are required. That is a massive business for them. And think about the unit economics. Once you're in there, you're not going to switch property management products. You can continue to leverage pricing power and be the trusted brand that when you are up for renewal on your condo board contract, first service has done it. You know they're going to do a good job.
Starting point is 00:52:46 First Service has done it. You know they're going to do a good job. They also have other services businesses like California Closets, Paul Davis Restoration, Serta Pro. Those other brands are tucked into the First Service business. Lots of acquisitions. All right, speaking of lots of acquisitions, Constellation Software. You can't have a conversation about Canadian compounding stories without talking about Constellation software. Now, I didn't bring up any of the spin cos that they've spun off into onto the TSX venture like Lumine Group and Topicus into today's story because they just haven't been public long enough. Yes, they have the same DNA as Constellation, but Lumine Group, I think, went public last spring. So there you go. Now sporting, what is it today? Now sporting $85 billion in market cap. What is it here?
Starting point is 00:53:39 I should probably know this. $91 billion market cap, Canadian dollars on the TSX. It's probably the most satisfying stock chart you could ever imagine. I have owned it for years and years now. I'm happy to own it for many more years and years now. Stock's grown on average 31% of the last 10 years and earnings per share has grown up 21%. Revenue is probably pretty similar to that. For those who do not know, which is probably a very select few people who listen to this podcast, Constellation Software, headed up by Mark Leonard,
Starting point is 00:54:20 operates five or six operating groups that have a lot of autonomy to do acquisitions of vertical market software. I think there are like 950 companies today. Any minute now, there's going to be literally over a thousand companies in the Constellation software umbrella. It is nearly 50% of my portfolio if you include Topicus and Lumine Group. And some people will say, you've lost your mind. That concentration is absurd. Well, first of all, it didn't start that big. Stock's done so well to deserve that. And I don't trim, I don't sell. And secondly, it's more diversified than many portfolios with 10, 15, 30 companies. Constellation in itself is a basket and an index play on vertical market software,
Starting point is 00:55:15 B2B vertical market software companies serving niche end markets. They take the cash from those companies that are spitting out a lot to cash at high margin and do it again. They're buying over 100 companies a year. And they've done it at scale. There's a lot of targets still to go. And there's lots of new targets being made every day. My hot take is obviously long in size. Shopify coming in at number one, the Canadian tech darling of a company.
Starting point is 00:55:49 Had some pretty impressive results lately. It trades at perennially nosebleeds multiples on the stock. The stock's compounded at 46% of the last 10 years and earnings per share at 22%. I mean, they have kind of turned on as they've needed that a bit of profitability. Was it doing gap profit these days? Yeah. A little bit of gap profit these days too. So you know the tide has turned in software when they're doing a couple billion in gap profits on a trailing 12 months. So good for Toby and Harley at Shopify. Amazing story out of Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. I'm very happy about this story.
Starting point is 00:56:40 Now, moving forward, the business has two kind of core pillars. They have the subscription solutions. So that is if you are a Shopify seller, you pay for a plan. So like a business plan or like an enterprise plan, and you get multiple more features for being on that plan as well as lower transaction fees. And then there's the merchant solutions part of the business, like handling logistics, handling payments, a lot of the fintech type of things that you'd expect Shopify would get into. That's that merchant side of the business. And look, if you want to start a e-commerce store and you don't use Shopify, there are competitors out there, of course. There's all these other web builders,
Starting point is 00:57:31 the Squarespace, the Wix, there's more. If you're not using Shopify, the way I understand it and the way that the brand at least is positioned at this point, is you're shooting yourself in the foot. You're setting up your e-commerce store and you're picking a operating system of your entire business. You don't want to mess this up. Shopify is the name. Merchant solutions have compounded revenue at 86% since 2012 and subscription solutions, which is really the juicy high margin part of the business, the SaaS part of the business, a 50% compound annual growth rate. What's the run rate on that? That's doing $563 million a quarter. So yeah, well over $2 billion run rate. And that's almost all coming through gross profit. That's $466 million in gross profit on $563 million in revenue, monthly recurring revenue.
Starting point is 00:58:39 So every month is $169 million on that subscription solutions. Look, incredibly successful execution here. I think it's always been a bit of a battleground stock because yes, it is $2.57 10 years ago. That's why you have this amazing run-up. But the stock trades for 75 bucks US on the New York Stock Exchange. Let me go to the, I'm going to go to the Canadian listing here instead for the purpose of the podcast. Okay. Pulled up the TSX listing now. So you're looking at $103 on the TSX. That was $3 in 2015, 10 years ago. It reached a peak of $214. I'm assuming this is all split adjusted. I'd have to look when the last time they split. $214 in November of 2021.
Starting point is 00:59:40 So it's still more than half off of its peak. The drawdown total, yeah, it's 52%. It drew down 80% peak to trough from that timeframe to June 2022. So it's been a bit of a battleground stock. And now, you know, the tide came in and now it's back to, okay, we're going to reward these companies, but we're cautiously optimistic. So I think that that makes sense. Anything trading at, you know, 64 times forward earnings, 23 times historical gross profit, you need everything to go right when these things are traded like that. And I think that it can go right here. I think that things can go right. I think you have the right people running this, the right vision and the right market. But expect a lot of volatility when stocks trade at those multiples.
Starting point is 01:00:49 But my hot take is, I like Shopify. I like the stock. I hope it does well. It's a proud Canadian tech story because we don't have many. We really don't have that many. All right, that rounds out the entire list, folks. That was like a full hour monologue. Never done that before. May never do it again. So, you know, it's a where were you moment. You're in August, 2024. We appreciate you listening to the podcast.
Starting point is 01:01:22 We're back next week. Myself and Simone and Simone and Dan Kent, as well as the Real Estate Podcast continues to roll on with Daniel Foch and Nick Hill twice a week in your ears. Lots of exciting things up in our content schedule. Lots of exciting partnerships that we're doing as well with some new partners coming online.
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