The Canadian Investor - The TSX Hits $6 Trillion While TMX Has a Monster Quarter

Episode Date: November 6, 2025

In this episode, Simon breaks down the latest from the Bank of Canada and the Fed and why both are cutting rates again, but sending different signals on what comes next.  He then walks through ea...rnings from TMX Group, Allied Properties, and Franco-Nevada. TMX and Franco continue to execute well, while Allied’s fundamentals and payout picture keep deteriorating. Tickers of stocks discussed: X.TO, AP-UN.TO, FNV.TO  Check out our portfolio by going to Jointci.com Our Website Our New Youtube Channel! Canadian Investor Podcast Network Twitter: @cdn_investing Simon’s twitter: @Fiat_Iceberg Braden’s twitter: @BradoCapital Dan’s Twitter: @stocktrades_ca Want to learn more about Real Estate Investing? Check out the Canadian Real Estate Investor Podcast! Apple Podcast - The Canadian Real Estate Investor  Spotify - The Canadian Real Estate Investor  Web player - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Asset Allocation ETFs | BMO Global Asset Management Sign up for Fiscal.ai for free to get easy access to global stock coverage and powerful AI investing tools. Register for EQ Bank, the seamless digital banking experience with better rates and no nonsense.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Starting point is 00:01:16 opportunities for investors this has to be one of the biggest quarters i've seen from this company in quite some time welcome back to the Canadian investor podcast my name is Simon Belanger. I am back for a solo episode. So I haven't done many of those in the past few years. I've done a couple of them. But the reason I'm doing a solo episode today is because Dan became a dad last week. So big shout out to Dan. Congratulations to you and your wife. And obviously the two little boys that you now have. I'm sure you'll be a fantastic dad. Dan should be back next week or at the latest the week after as things get settled for him and his wife. So I'll do this solo. It's a news and earnings episode. I'll start off by the Bank of Canada and the Fed rate cuts and then I'll go over earnings from TMX Group, Allied Properties, Reit and Franco Nevada. And for those who like AI, tune in on Monday, I'll do something a bit different. So first I'll talk about the big takeaways from the big AI names, especially in the US, but I'll try to add a few names from Canada as well. It'll be just a big overview and the big takeaway.
Starting point is 00:02:29 there and my thoughts on it and then I'll do a recap of the budget but especially for the parts that do impact investors obviously some macro takes I'll talk about as well so tune in on Monday so I'll do that a little bit differently then and then Thursday Dan might be back or the following week like I said before so I haven't done many of these episodes so make sure that you let me know whether you liked it or not if there are things that you like didn't like things to improve, happy to hear it. Now, to start off, like I mentioned, so the Bank of Canada rate cuts, the Bank of Canada cut rates by another 25 basis point, which was widely expected by economists. What really stood out was the tone from Tiff McLem and how there is still
Starting point is 00:03:13 a lot of uncertainty in the economy, but he also ended that they may be done cutting for now. During the presser, they were asked about the federal government's upcoming deficit spending and the likelihood of heavier bond issuance and obviously the budget just came out as I'm recording this yesterday. I'm recording this on November 5th. They didn't really provide a clear answer but only said that they planned to restart asset purchases or QE quantitative easing in Q4 like it was previously announced. QE for those are not familiar with it. It simply means they are using newly created money to put it simply to buy assets. Typically, government bonds, but not always. And the main takeaway here was that they don't currently
Starting point is 00:04:02 expect to cut further based on their projections. But if the data deteriorates, if growth slows more than expected, or unemployment rises quickly, then they'll reconsider that. So they are pretty much in a wait-and-see mode. Like they've said time and time again, there'll be data the dependence. I don't expect them to be any different right now, but clearly their focus has shifted to the economy over inflation. Now, speaking of inflation, their preferred core measures are still hovering around 3%, but they expect that to gradually move down towards a target. And it's interesting that they talked about these preferred measures once again when they have Some people from the Bank of Canada, some deputy governors that were out saying that they're looking to bring dashboards out in the new year and saying that investors and the media were focusing too much an economist on those core measures, which is kind of funny that they're still referencing that.
Starting point is 00:05:05 But that aside, looking now at the broader outlook, they see growth as being weak and is expected to stay soft through the second half of the year. Unemployment has ticked up to just over 7% and wage growth is slowing. Housing is definitely mixed across the country. They even mentioned, and that was Carolyn Rogers, she explicitly said that Toronto condos are particularly in a tough spot and are showing signs of real stress, which was no authority. I don't remember the exact term that she used, but it was definitely central bank speak for saying I think it was acute stress.
Starting point is 00:05:41 So a term that is clearly not great. And I just want to shout out here to Dan Foch from the Canadian real estate investor podcast under this podcast network, of course, that has been saying this for essentially close to two years now that there were signs that stress was coming to the GTA condo market. They also highlighted the impact of the trade dispute with the U.S. and, of course, the Trump administration and what end the impact it's having on the Canadian economy. And finally, they flagged the stretch equity valuation tied to the AI boom, noting that any sharp change in sentiment could wait on growth and financial stability. Now, on to the Fed in the U.S. as expected, the U.S. Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis point, bringing out its target range from 3.75 to 4%. Now, what caught markets a bit off guard was possible. Powell's tone. He said that another rate cut in December is not guaranteed, even though markets had priced in over 90% chance for another cut before this speech. And right after the press
Starting point is 00:06:52 conference, those odds actually dropped to about 73%. And they fall in even a bit further. I think they stand around 68% right now. And I'll show this for our joint TCI subscribers. People can follow along even if you're not subscribed. You can look at the CME Fed Watch tool. And you see right now that the probabilities are for 70.1% in terms of the rates or rate cut in the December meeting and 29.9. So let's just say 30% chance that they'll leave it unchanged. So basically what Powell just said is you just wanted to make a point that it wasn't a guarantee. And based on what the market was pricing in. Clearly, the market was pricing it at a very high likelihood, almost a guarantee.
Starting point is 00:07:45 The Fed pointed to growing downside risk in employment as one of the reasons for this cut, meaning they're starting to worry more about the job market softening than inflation. So that's interesting. Definitely, it's been a bit of a shift. Let's be honest here. It's not been just this meeting. They have cuts since the peak, of course. But it's interesting that they're trying to focus a bit more, and clearly it's not extremely easy for them.
Starting point is 00:08:13 They have to focus more on the private data over the public data because of the U.S. government shutdown, but they do have a decent amount of data showing that the employment market is indeed softening in the U.S. Another noteworthy point is the ending of quantitative tightening. So it was a big piece of news that the Fed will end quantitative tightening or Q. QT on December 1st. So before I continue, I just want to make sure I explain what QT is because these terms get thrown around QT and QE. And I find typically when you hear that, they won't explain what they are. So I'll try to keep it as simple as possible. I like the Bank of Canada that I mentioned previously the Fed holds assets on its balance sheet. So mostly U.S. government
Starting point is 00:09:01 bonds or U.S. treasuries that it buys with newly created money during quantitative easing. one of those treasury matures, so let's just take one, the U.S. government pays the Fed back. The Fed can either use that money to buy a new treasury, which keeps its balance sheet the same, or let it roll off, which shrinks its balance sheets, and that is a form of QT quantitative tightening. In simple terms, QT removes liquidity from the system, while QE adds liquidity to the system. And by ending QT, the Fed is essentially signaling that is done shrinking its back. balance sheet. They're not expending it yet, but it's often the first step before QE eventually returns. And let's be honest, I think it's only a matter of time before it starts
Starting point is 00:09:50 happening. And QE, again, it's the same thing as the Bank of Canada. This means that the Fed would essentially use newly created money to buy U.S. government bonds. Typically, they'll buy those from large U.S. banks. And that process increases demand, of course, for U.S. government debt pushes treasury prices up and drives yield down since yields move inversely to the price when it comes to bonds. Now, the big takeaways here while I wrap this segment up is the focus from both central banks is clearly shifted towards supporting the economy. In Canada, we've already been in that mode for actually quite some time. That's a reason why our interests, the overnight rate in Canada is much lower than the Fed funds rate. Now, the Fed is really.
Starting point is 00:10:37 starting to signal the same thing, although it seems like Jerome Powell is definitely hedging over there a little bit by not guaranteeing or anything like that a cut in December. They're acknowledging that the labor market is softening and the emphasis is shifting from fighting inflation to stabilizing employment. From an investor perspective, because I always try to tie these things up, what it means for you. As a retail investor, we know that's our largest listener base. I try to put things into a bit more actionable items. I mean, I do tend to invest in big macro terms. So that's macro themes. Sorry, that's how I like to look at things. So I'll look at what I think has a good probability of happening in the future. And then I'll look for some investments that
Starting point is 00:11:27 should benefit from that. So that's typically how I view things. I know not everyone looks at it that way. Some people focus more on investing in just great businesses, a bit regardless of the sector and that's completely fine but that's the approach I found works best for me and from an investor perspective the next big catalyst is when QE restarts it hasn't begun yet like I just mentioned but when it does that typically increases liquidity in the system and more liquidity generally means more money flowing into finite asset which equals oftentimes financial assets which can be a tailwind for markets. However, that could be offset by a slowing economy because usually there's a reason why they do QE. It's because they see the liquidity drying up. They see the economy
Starting point is 00:12:18 slowing down. So it definitely is setting up a dynamic of more liquidity supporting asset prices versus a weaker economic growth acting as a drag. And especially if you start removing out like AI spend, there's a lot of data out there showing that the economy is. actually not doing all that well, whether you look at Canada or the US. Now, that's the segment about what the central banks have done in terms of the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve in the US. Want to buy a stock, but don't want to shell out hundreds or even thousands for a single share? With Questrade's new fractional shares, you can invest any dollar amount and build a diversified portfolio instantly. No delays, no trade fees.
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Starting point is 00:14:24 It was a blast. I got to connect with listeners, hear a few of their stock pitches, catch them rodeo events for the first time, enjoy the fair, and just soak up the energy of the city during the Stampede, all while rocking my new cowboy hat. While I was there, I stayed in a home on Airbnb just a short walk from the Stampede grounds. After a full day making new connections with people just as passionate about investing as I am, and a late night at the rodeo, it was the perfect place to come back to and make a quick dinner and unwind in a quiet, comfortable space that felt like home.
Starting point is 00:15:01 That trip got me thinking about my own place back in Ottawa. While I'm away, my home usually just sits empty, but instead, I thought I could be hosting it on Airbnb. Hosting is flexible so I can set the timing, and it could help me cover the cost of my next adventure while someone else enjoys our beautiful neighborhood. Your home might be worth more than you think. Find out how much at Airbnb.ca. Now moving on here, I'll have three overviews of earnings like I mentioned. So the first one is
Starting point is 00:15:35 Allied Properties Reap. Now, this is a company I used to own. I sold, I think it's a year and a half now that I sold Allied. My premise was pretty simple. I know I mentioned this every time, but we do get quite a bit of new listeners. My premise was pretty simple. They own high quality office real estate. I thought that after the pandemic, there'd be more and more businesses that would force their employees or encourage them to get back to work in the office. And what better way to do it than trying to rent premium real estate. So real estate with really good amenities. I mean, if you really want to encourage your employees to come back, if you have a great gym that's available there, if you have shops and all these kind of things, like really great
Starting point is 00:16:22 offices, nice looking offices, fully renovated or brand new, it's much more attractive than this building that's been built for 45 years. The carpet is older than me, smells not too great, the washrooms don't look good, there's no other amenities. So that was my premise for it. After holding it about a year and a half, I just realized that things were not turning around and that management I don't think in any bad like I don't think they were doing it on purpose but management kept promising that occupancy rates and leasing occupancy would also improve and they kept pushing back pushing back and saying oh it's going to improve by the end of this year and so on and at some point I just decided look I think they just don't know and things
Starting point is 00:17:16 are not going as they thought they would, so I just decided to take the loss. Not a big loss, but nonetheless a lot. So things since have not gotten better for Allied whatsoever. I do feel for those who invested in that, I mean, they have a very high yield right now. I think it's above, I think it's probably around 12%. I don't have it in front of me, but it's definitely above 10% if I remember correctly. So that kind of shows you that the market is thinking there may be a dividend cut or distribution cut coming. So if you own this, I totally get how it. This has been a frustrating company to own. I used to own it. For those not familiar, like I said, things have been trending down. There are a few red flags now with this company that I'll go over right now. The
Starting point is 00:18:02 problem with Allied is that things are just not improving. And that's been the same story like I just mentioned. So let's take a closer look. I actually went back and looked back at Q3 over the last two years. So Q3 of 2024, Q3 of 20203 because they just released Q3 of 2025. So I wanted to see over the last couple of years how have things progress and not good. So debt levels have gotten worse. Their net debt compared to their adjusted EBITA has gone from 7.9 times to 12.3 times in that span. And to keep it simple, this compared their net debt versus how profitable they are, The higher it is, the worse it is. So clearly not trending the right direction.
Starting point is 00:18:46 That's in that span of two years. Their interest coverage ratio has gone from 2.5 to 2.1. Higher is better here. So again, trending in the wrong direction. And a somewhat bright point here is that least area has been stable, around 87.5% since Q3 of 2023. But the problem is that they were guiding for that to be at 90% by, this year end, the end of this year, which they said they won't achieve. A more alarming trend here
Starting point is 00:19:18 is that occupied area, which is the area that is being used so you can lease an area but you don't occupy it, which has become more common due to the after effects of the pandemic, especially if you leased something pre-pandemic and then the pandemic happen and you shift them from a hybrid or work-from-home model, then it's very possible that you still have to leave. lease, you're not using it. And clearly that's an issue because if you're not using it, there is a high chance you won't renew that lease when it's up. So that portion, so occupied area, is really alarming. That has gone from 86.8 to 84% in that span of two years. And they were also guiding for that to be 90% by year end, which obviously won't happen. Now, I'll just show a graphic here
Starting point is 00:20:08 for joint TCI viewers. And you'll see that that has not been. been trending very well at all. You'll see. So this, what I'm showing here is the not only in the occupied, but also the least area. So in green, you see the least area and in blue the occupied area. And that's just the end of Q2. So it's actually gotten worse for both metrics since last quarter. It just hasn't been updated just yet on fiscal.aI. But then if you start looking here a bit differently. So this one here would be the payout ratios, which have not been all that great either. So the payout ratios have definitely been trending in the wrong direction. So you have two payout ratios that are no thwarty here. So funds from operation, that's basically a REITS versions
Starting point is 00:20:59 of earning, but adjusted to remove things like depreciation and gains or losses from property sales because those don't reflect the actual cast of properties are generating and then adjusted fund from operation so a FFO that just goes one test further so just take FFO and it adjust that for recurring capital expenses and maintenance costs to show what's really available for dividend so for those on joining TCI you'll see that that has actually been trending up for the last several quarters actually probably the last couple of years in the wrong direction better. A lower is usually better here. So traditionally they've been more around the 70s in terms of percentage depending which one you were looking at, FFO or AFFO. Well, in that span of
Starting point is 00:21:48 two years, FFO, so funds from operation has gone from 75 to 96%. And AFFO payout ratio has gone from 83 to 103%. So the payout ratio just means how gives you an idea of how sustainable the distribution is. it's really not sustainable right now. And that's something Dan and I have talked about the last time we looked at Allied. It was already not trending in the right direction and now it's even worse. And on the call, they said they are considering a distribution cut in 2026, which I was actually very glad to hear. But I think it's a move that should have already been done. When the payout ratio went above 90% for the adjusted firms from operation, I think that's something they should have looked at already. But this is a classic thing, companies that are very reliant on
Starting point is 00:22:40 their distribution, like a read, Bell, BC was another example here. That's pretty common. They tend to just not want to cut it until it's pretty obvious when clearly, you know, things are not getting better. Debt is getting worse and the payout ratios are getting worse. The occupancy and levels are not getting better. Even like I said, the least, East area is also not trending in the right direction. So the reality here is it's not great. They talked again on the call about leasing activity, which just seems to be the same thing that they've done over the last three years. Every single time they talk about that. And that is alarming to me because they always say, oh, well, leasing activity is there. There's a pickup in leasing activity,
Starting point is 00:23:29 any variation of that. But the reality is that leasing activity does not mean they're signing a And another metric that I'm just going on top of my head, but I remember to the average price per square foot that they're leasing, I think it's pretty much flat. So it's not trending in the right direction there as well. These are all things that are worrying, not a company that personally I would invest in at this point. I've been burnt by them before, like I said, the type of company that if you really, really want to invest in it, you have to stay on top of.
Starting point is 00:24:04 of it first of all. Like you should have most individual company, but especially a company in this situation. But second is the kind of company that I would prefer to see things turn around a little bit, even if it means not investing at the exact bottom. I would actually prefer that things turn around and then it starts going up and trend in the right direction than being too early. I'd rather be a little too late. I'd rather be a little too late. than being too early, if that makes sense. Now, let's move on now to TMX, so the Toronto-Montrial Exchange Group, for short,
Starting point is 00:24:43 for those who didn't know, because the Toronto Stock Exchange years ago bought the Montreal Exchange, which is more of a derivative exchange. Now, it was a very impressive quarter from TMX, a lot of stuff to like. I'll just bring up here for our joint TCI viewers here. Just show a chart.
Starting point is 00:25:03 Okay, so revenues were up 18%, although part of that increase was because of acquisitions, but even without those, what was really impressive was organic revenues, and those increased a whopping 17%. And now, still speaking of organic revenues, they saw 27% growth from derivatives and clearing, so you can think of options here, 18% growth, again, organically inequities and fixed income trading. And there are other segment led by VETI, which VETI help CTF providers create indexes, analyze market data, and reach investors with research and digital content. All the other segments actually perform quite well. Net income was of 45% to 121 million for the quarter. And what I'm
Starting point is 00:25:54 showing here is actually the derivatives trading and clearing revenue. So what would have been attributed more to the Montreal Exchange. And that has just been on a steady way up. You can just look, there was a bit of a lull here in 2022 when things were a bit more stagnating. But I would say if you start looking from end of 2023 up until now, it's just been straight way up. If you're looking at just since, let's just say, September 2023, the quarter there. So you're looking at a compound annual growth rate in those revenues of 25%. So very impressive here for the Montreal, for the derivatives trading here. Net income, like I said, was up 45% to 121 million for the quarter. They also saw their operating margins increased by 150 basis points, which is very impressive. On the call,
Starting point is 00:26:52 they said that geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty drove investor demand for derivatives. Again, on the same call, they said they are making progress on their TM2X strategy. That was in view about a year ago, which aims at doubling their revenue over the next five to seven years. The TSX venture is booming with dollars raised by venture issuers, surging 67% and led by, you probably guessed, in mining financing, so mining companies, those junior companies that list on the TSX. TSX and TSX venture reached a record high $6 trillion in market cap with the mining sector hitting $1 trillion on its own. Again, not surprising when Dan and I looked at some of the data at the end of Q3, if I remember correctly, the mining sector or materials in general, which includes the mining sector, was up something like 80%. Now, it's probably down a little bit since. I haven't looked at the data yet because it comes at the end of the quarter, but it's probably up. in the 65, 70% nonetheless. So it's no surprise that the mining sector is doing quite well here.
Starting point is 00:28:03 There's also been a record 200 new ETFs listed on the TSX year to date. So quite impressive. They also think the recent rock point gas storage IPO, which was very successful, could be a sign of a potential robust IPO season. So we'll have to see again, I think if commodities, especially pressure metals keep doing well, and if you see a rebound in oil prices, that could definitely be a bit of a boom for IPOs on the TSX and the TSX venture. So we'll have to see because clearly the TSX is heavily in those two sectors, also banking and financials, but I think we're more likely to see those. Maybe something in tech, who knows, I'm not very familiar of any Canadian companies that may be IPOing that are in the tech sector, but maybe we will
Starting point is 00:28:55 We'll see some as well, because there's definitely investor demand for anything AI related right now. Want to buy a stock, but don't want to shell out hundreds or even thousands for a single share? With Quest Trade's new fractional shares, you can invest any dollar amount and build a diversified portfolio instantly. No delays, no trade fees, no excuses. Want to put $10 into a stock trading at $100? No problem. Questrade has you covered. They're the first broker in Canada to offer real-time commission-free trading for U.S. fractional shares in ETFs.
Starting point is 00:29:33 It's simple, powerful, and finally available in Canada. Head to questrade.com to open and fund an account. Use code TCI and you get $50 to get you started. Do you keep hearing about these all-on-one ETFs lately? Well, I have some exciting news. BMO ETFs just cut the fees on their flagship all-in-one ETFs to 0.15%, making them one of the lowest cost options in Canada. That's right, more value, same smart diversification, all in a single ETF. Whether you're just starting out or simplifying your portfolio, BMO all-in-one ETFs make it easy to invest with confidence.
Starting point is 00:30:20 Just zad it and forget it. considering ETFs like ZEQT, BMO's All Equity ETF, or ZGRO, BMO's growth ETF. Earlier this year, I headed to Calgary for our Stampede podcast meetup. It was a blast. I got to connect with listeners, hear a few of their stock pitches, catch them rodeo events for the first time, enjoy the fair, and just soak up the energy of the city during the Stampede, all while rocking my new cowboy hat. While I was there, I stayed in a home on Airbnb just a short walk from the Stampede grounds. After a full day making new connections with people just as passionate about investing as I am
Starting point is 00:31:03 and a late night at the rodeo, it was the perfect place to come back to and make a quick dinner and unwind in a quiet, comfortable space that felt like home. That trip got me thinking about my own place back in Ottawa. While I'm away, my home usually just sits empty, but instead, I thought I could be be hosting it on Airbnb. Hosting is flexible so I can set the timing and it could help me cover the cost of my next adventure while someone else enjoys our beautiful neighborhood. Your home might be worth more than you think. Find out how much at Airbnb.ca slash host. Now let's move on and keep the mining theme here. So Franco Nevada, it is a company that I own. So definitely if you're interested in this
Starting point is 00:31:50 company do your own research but i mean it's hard to not argue that they had a very strong quarter really no surprise given how high gold prices were throughout q3 and the strength came from more than just gold prices it came also from solid operational performance across their asset base recent royalty and stream acquisition and the sale of the remaining cobray panama stockpile and streaming and royalty essentially is just them investing in certain projects And after the fact, they actually get money back. A royalty would be typically on a certain percentage of the revenue that is generated from gold, for example. And Stream just allows them to acquire gold at a much, much lower price than the current market price.
Starting point is 00:32:38 So it's usually a preset amount. And that's because they provide some financing to these companies. So I always like to specify that because they're not kind of traditional business models that not everyone is familiar with. They also mentioned that they are now debt-free once again. Now, if you're not familiar with Franco Nevada, more often than not, they don't have much debt on the balance sheet. But sometimes they will take on some debt to fund deals if needed. They had taken a bit of debt over the last 18 months to fund six meaningful new royalty and stream investments. Now, with strong cash flow and proceeds from equity sales, they were able to pay,
Starting point is 00:33:19 those that debt off and those projects are also expected to be long duration asset that should contribute to growth for decades. Now in the financial results it was clearly excellent. I won't go into a very deep detail just because I try to make this news and earnings a little bit more condensed since there's no back and forth with Dan. It's kind of hard to do when you're just yourself as you may have guessed. So I'll keep it a bit shorter, but we'll provide some kind of guidance of what they're providing too. So financial results were excellent record revenues of 488 million, up 77% year, and 33% versus just the previous quarter, so just Q2. And net income came in at 288 million. That's an 88% increase from last year. And I forgot to put this in my note.
Starting point is 00:34:16 but I know that they are either upwards or going over their projected geo guidance production or, yeah, geo guidance or the gold equivalent ounces, which is a metric that is very widely used for these type of mining companies or streamers like a Franco Nevada. It's just because they don't, gold is not the only metal that they actually, you know, have rights to. They'll have rights to silver. They'll have rights to some oil and gas, some platinum. So to make it sure that it's one unit, they qualify everything as gold equivalent ounces. And that production, or I don't know if production is the right word because they don't actually produce it, but the overall geo that they'll be selling throughout the whole year will be at the top end of the guidance, which is always nice for these kind of companies because what you want to see, of course,
Starting point is 00:35:12 is you want to see higher precious metal prices on the one hand, but you want to also see a higher output because if you have a higher output but metal prices are stable or even down, at least you know, you're offsetting it. But if you have higher output, but you also have higher prices, then that's the best of both worlds. And that's kind of what's happening so far this year. And the last thing I'll mention here is the progress on the Cobre Panama restart discussion. So there's been some encouraging progress on that. Recently, the Panamanian government has made a more constructive comments. Public sentiment appears to be shifting towards a reopening as well, provided there's more
Starting point is 00:35:55 transparency and stronger government participation and the president even expressed a desire to resolve the issue by year end. On the call, Franco was a bit more reserved on it, but you can definitely see that they're more and more positive about the potential mind reopening. And that's really important if you're not too familiar with that is Kobri Panama was essentially shut down. It was
Starting point is 00:36:19 operated by first quantum. And it was a good portion of those GOs that I mentioned that were produced for Franco Nevada in a year. I think it equaled when it shut down at the end of 2023. I think it was around 20% of
Starting point is 00:36:35 the output that they had. So definitely a big hit. And the stock took a big hit following that I remember and that's actually shortly after I started a position in Franco Nevada because I thought it was still a great company. It had interests in dozens of projects around the world. Clearly that was a big hit but most investors seem to be riding it off completely and I thought you know what maybe there's a small chance maybe not huge that this could eventually restart and the market is essentially pricing it in a way that it won't. So I thought there could be some upside and it looks like there's nothing guarantee
Starting point is 00:37:18 of course but it looks more and more hopeful that it will restart of course. This is still political. This could change very quickly. It could end up not happening. But they even went as far to note on the call that if Cobrey Panama restarts, their gold equivalent ounces. So the GEO's production could increase by 50% for Franco Nevada over the next five years. Of course, that's factoring in as well. Other projects that they have, other investments over growth projects that they have throughout their portfolio. But that would be amazing. 50% over the next five years. And like I mentioned, you're not even factoring any changes in commodity prices here. Of course, that could go down, could go up, could go sideways,
Starting point is 00:38:06 but the fact that the production could go up 50%. Really encouraging, we'll have to see if the Cobre Panama mind does restart or not. But that wraps it up for the news and earnings. Not easy to do everything solo because usually when we go back and forth, you get a few minutes here and there to be able to drink a little bit of water, take a bit more your time, take a deep breath. but that's not the case. I do hope that you enjoy this.
Starting point is 00:38:33 Of course, I'm doing it to help out Dan and his wife, making sure that they do have some time to get settled in their new lifestyle. Again, a big congratulation to both of them for the two very cute baby boys. You send me some pictures. So very happy for them. Dan will be back soon. And like I said, for the Monday episode, tune in.
Starting point is 00:38:55 I'll be going over my biggest takeaways from what happened on. the AI front for earnings and news, and then I'll also talk about the Canadian government budget and just give my overall take. I'll try to stay as much as I can, apolitical. Sometimes people think I'm leaning one way or another. The reality is I'm an independent, and my frank opinion on politics in Canada is I tend to think there's just really not really any good options. So take it as you wish.
Starting point is 00:39:26 I know people are more and more polarized, but I'll try to. Stay just kind of in the middle. Try to give my honest opinion. Doesn't matter which party is in power. That's my honest opinion there. So now I'll leave you at that. For those interested, I did share some screens, obviously, during this for our joint TCI subscribers.
Starting point is 00:39:45 For those interested, it is $15 a month. You get our monthly updates that we just posted a few days late, of course, because Dan was in the hospital. So thank you for all the subscribers who understood and the well wishes that you gave Dan. he's very appreciative. I also post once a month at the middle of the month my parents' portfolio update for their retirement. We also had the podcast ad free
Starting point is 00:40:08 that you're able to add to your favorite podcast player. And what I'm thinking to also doing is when I start a new position or make a significant change in my portfolio to record a little video and post it on there for our joint TCI subscribers and potentially posted maybe a week or two later on our YouTube channel, which we've been posting a video or two every week.
Starting point is 00:40:30 So make sure you check that out. The links are in the description. But even if you don't subscribe, we do appreciate all the support. It's really appreciated. We love seeing those emails that people have been listening for a while. That's what makes it all worthwhile for us. So I will be back with a new episode for you again solo on Monday.
Starting point is 00:40:49 The Canadian Investor Podcast should not be construed as investment or financial advice. The hosts and guests featured may own securities or assets discussed on this podcast. Always do your own due diligence or consult with a financial professional before making any financial or investment decisions.

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