The Chaser Report - A Premature Election Post Mortem

Episode Date: April 30, 2025

The betting markets (that we strongly disagree with) have had their say, so the election is practically over already. Never one to jump the gun, Australia’s most unjustifiably confident analyst Charles asks where it all went wrong during the campaign, and wonders who will be the replacement Opposition leader. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Chaser Report is recorded on Gadigal Land. Striving for mediocrity in a world of excellence, this is The Chaser Report. Hello and welcome to another episode of Welcome to the present, present, present, present. It is the Chaser Report. Charles, just looking quickly at the election odds on Sportsbet, which is not sponsoring us, which I don't endorse in any way. I think they're evil, but Labor is paying $1.13. The Coalition is paying $6.40.

I think the gamblers of Australia have made a call on the election. It's in just two days' time. So, Charles, should this massive event on our national calendar be the subject of today's podcast, it's in just two days. It's the most important news story in the country, for sure. Well, it certainly is, from a civic duty perspective, I think we really should talk about the election. Like, if we were good citizens who were trying to sort of focus on the very real responsibility

that we have as a democratic nation, As public servants, as citizens, has engaged citizens who love this country. And which, you know, you see all around the world the slippage of democracy. Yes. Where you see people who haven't taken it as seriously and are taking it for granted. And it's slipping away from the out of their fingers. Did you know the economist does an annual ranking? There are only 21 full democracies in the world, Australia being one of them.

New Zealand being much more democratic, apparently, according to the economists, than Australia, incidentally, we might want to get on that. So I think the best thing we can do as engaged citizens is to talk briefly about a completely different election and then talk about Donald Trump's first 100 days. What do you reckon? Yeah, look, I've got nothing to edit this day. No, we've talked about it.

Not much, but enough, I think. So let's take an hour break and then the obvious election, the most important election in the world this week. We'll address in a second. Thank you for your patience. Your call is important. Can't take being on hold anymore. FIS is 100% online, so you can make the switch in minutes.

Mobile plans start at $15 a month. Certain conditions apply. Details at FIS.C.A. So Mark Carney, Charles, who was... Sorry, sorry, can I just... I'll just say one thing about the Australian League. Whoa, okay. Which is that...

Okay, you nerd. Channel 7 had a poll on Tuesday night, which was all about how Dutton had actually increased one point. in the polls. Howdy? Yes. From what to what, though? Oh, well, it was actually, it was like 34 to 35 or something like that.

It wasn't actually bad. The problem, from a primary vote perspective, it didn't switch the two-party preferred at all, right? But there was just this sense that actually the coalition, within the margin of error, was just bumping slightly higher. Oh, yeah? And my guess is that all this sort of incredible racism that's coming out of the coalition this week, you know, just the drumbeats of dog whistle of, you know, in the post-Anzac day thing,

has just done its magic. Isn't the Australian population great that you can sort of run a bit of a dog whistle and, and you get a bump in the polls? I think it is, while not, you know, wanting to necessarily reflect positively on the Australian populace, Charles, I think saying that a 1% bump in the primary vote in a poll within the margin of error shows that the coalition's coming roaring back into this election. There's all the stuff about welcome to country. If that were true, H. Fong's latest text, which was about that today, would have Trumpet of Patriots winning.

You don't need to be welcome to your own country, comma, 3% home loans. What that means is that 3% home loans don't need to be welcomed into this country. I don't think that's really the message today, Fong, Trump of Patriots, is trying to convey charge up. See, the reason why the polls don't reflect the surge in support for trumpet of patriots, Don, is because all the supporters for trumpets of patriots. swamped with text messages that they can't answer any of the polls. That's really poll. Also, if you're a Trump, it's a Patriots supporter and Todd rings up, asking your questions, do you think they're from the government and you hang up?

Yes. Okay, so let's talk about... Look, I think the betting markets, without wanting to, you know, overstate the wisdom of gamblers, I think they may have a more informed handle than your one-point bump to pet it up and in one poll. But it is a pity that Anthony Green's not going to have a real nail by it as his last election. If so. Yeah.

Look, it could be a surprise. Maybe Anthony Green for his last election will actually fudge the numbers of it just to add a bit of suspense to keep it going. Yes. Because it'll be a real pity if, you know, everyone's turning off at 7.25 p.m. Which, I mean, he may call it by, it was quite early last time, wasn't it? Yeah, it was. So anyway, Mark Carney, this is the...

Not as early as me, of course. No, of course, you always call it well before the poll. Mark Carney is the new Prime Minister of Canada, and the important point here is... And it's not a very long point to make, because I don't want to spend too long on any election at this point. Charles has been electioned out. But they were a long way behind in the polls, the Liberals.

And in fact, Justin Trudeau was done. He had to leave because they were heading for certain defeat. Then they bring in Mark Carney, who's really a technocrat, formerly with the Bank of England, of all things, comes in and wins the Canadian election. Reason being, of course, Donald J. Trump, who now has, I think, the worst approval ratings in the first 100 days, within any president of a for any president in 80 years so what is his biggest achievement

what's actually accomplished in the first hundred days i think the top achievement charles is electing mark carney as prime minister of canada well don't mr president you've nailed but i must say you do know the western civilization is really going to shit when around the world everyone sighs you know a breath of relief uh when a central banker takes over it's like Oh, the central bankers are saving the world. The former... In previous generations, it was Nelson Mandela or Che Guevara or, you know, even towering figures like Winston Churchill and FDR.

Now you've got a literal governor of the Reserve Bank of England. And I must say, yes, that'd be like, you know, having electing... Ian McFarlane or someone is the governor. No, no, Alan Feltz. Who was the guy with the voice who was on the industry super eds? Was that Ellen Fields? No, he was headed to the Rydie Hilmer? Hillmer.

No, he wasn't at a Governor Reserve Bank. Bernie Fraser. Bernie Fraser. Bernie Fraser, we need to bring back draft Bernie. Bernie Fraser is a name that you don't hear often. No. On the podcast. But no, Chris Taylor was obsessed with Bernie Fraser's voice.

It's true. Now, I don't want to burnish any elements of, you know, reflect the glory here. But I have to note that I am the grandson of a former Governor of Reserve Bank. Oh, don't we know it, Dom? Yeah, I'm always bringing that. That makes me seem so cool at parties. It probably does now, does it actually might. Everyone's going, oh, wow.

It's like being Che Guevara's grandson. That's the thing. I mean, my grandfather was a wonderful man, but he was not known for his extreme charisma. He was your central banker, central banker. So that's what we're turning to. We're turning to the people who are not going to stuff things up completely. And I think that is Donald Trump's legacy at this point, is someone who won't cause chaos

is the order. And by that token, hasn't Anthony Albanesey been lucky to be the default option, the incumbent in this election. Yeah, so I saw a fantastic analysis yesterday where they were going through and tracking the polls. And you know how Labor, like especially Alba is very smug at the moment. There's a real confidence. He does seem quite a spring in his step.

Win to his back. But actually all the sort of key moments where the polls bumped in favour of Labor were to do with specific things that Trump had done. Like this is literally an election that Trump cedes to be the completely deciding factor. Well, and the exact things peter Dutton wanted to try and run on where Albanese might have seemed to be weak, Donald Trump kind of ruined for him. Like the public service, for instance. Yes, and because over in Canada, I thought it was interesting because here we've got Timu Trump. Right. But over there, they were calling the opposition leader mini Trump, right?

And I think our Timu Trump is actually better. It's wittier. Yeah, yeah. But, I mean, the shoe fit far more accurately on the Canadian opposition leader. He was quite extreme. Yeah, yeah. And it certainly made it up and looked like a delightful moderate in many respects. But that's the thing.

I mean, Albanese has been extraordinarily lucky. And in fact, Sean Kelly had this great article about how, yes, the exact nature of the Trump issues played into Albert. Turned out on his weaknesses into strength. The things where he wasn't particularly good at seemed like positive qualities. The world wandered a really unambitious, boring, mediocre white man in charge. Just to keep things much the same. Just to, I mean, basically, if you're doing sort of okay, if that's what your view is of how we're doing. And you see other places on fire, you kind of go, yeah.

And Peter doesn't get it going up and going, this is the worst prime minister we ever had. He's terrible. It's a disaster. Yeah. You're kind of going, well, not by the scales of that country over there, where the stock market is absolutely in the toilet. They're, you know, deporting two-year-old American citizens. And you see this, a seven-year-old American citizen with cancer.

A kid with cancer has been deported. John Stewart made a joke about Make a Wish, incidentally, about that and lost the audience. Yeah, right. And that brought back memories. Anyway, but the, I'm going to have to pull you up there, because you say, oh, Dutton's not as extreme as the Canadian, opposition leader. One of Dutton's, this is honestly true.

This is not something, because he sort of pretended to back away from it a couple of weeks ago. The idea that there will be 41,000 jobs lost in the public service over the next. Yeah, he said natural attrition, yeah. Yeah, and he backed away from saying we're going to fire them by saying it's natural attrition. He's now doubled down just this week and said, no, no, it'll only be, all 41,000 job losses will come from Canberra, right?

There's only 62,000 public servants in Canberra. It's two-thirds of the bureaucracy in Canberra. We were sort of making when we were trying to mention this. Yeah, I mean, that is genuinely radical. That's, you'd have to get rid of whole government departments to actually achieve that, or have them run by one person. You know, that sort of Doge-level Elon Musk style, let's go in and leave one person in the Department of Education.

You're missing the way that the coalition does these things, Charles, which is, we have got the track record on this. They moved them all to Barnaby Joyce's electorate. Isn't that the... They just basically translate the whole department. Right. Yes. To it's right.

Yes. But no, that is true. And so that's kind of an example, though, of what's happened with Dunn's whole campaign, where he's clarified and then clarified his clarification. Yes. Trying to walk the line between, we're going to change things because things are really bad,

but we're not going to change it very much because that would be extreme. We wouldn't want to frighten anyone and things are okay. But they're really bad. It's an impossible line to walk, really, that he's got because of Trump. The person you've really got to feel sorry for, I think, in this election. And it's going to be one of the first elections in the last 50 years that he really doesn't have a huge role in is Rupert Murdoch. True.

So you're losing his touch. Yeah, because you just go, like, if Rupert, if people obeyed Rupert Murdoch anymore, Peter Dutton would be in like Flynn, wouldn't he? I mean, like, the Australian is still backing Dutton. So you're just going. I mean, Paul Murray, bless Paul Murray. I used to go on Paul Murray live all the time. I think Paul Murray had a special with Peter Dutton the other night. Somehow Peter Dutton managed to find time for a full hour on Paul Murray Live.

And Paul Murray's post on Instagram here, this is the journalism that you get from Sky News. This is the post. What a pleasure to have Peter Dutton MP in the studio for PM Live tonight. He's the real deal and ready to fight with all he's got for a better country. I hope you enjoyed the hour as much as we did. How tough were the questions do you think that Peter Dutton got during the course of the hour? Oh, can we, Lachlan, can you put some of those questions in? You mentioned your mum and dad.

How is dad? He's really good, thanks much. He's back home and he turns 80 on Monday, so he's good. And he'll be watching tonight. He's a big fan of Paul Murray. I love your dad. Good on you, mate. Oh, what a question.

Jeez. Oh, that goes to the heart of the – Ooh, ow. Ouch. Oh. Oh, Peter Dutton's burning. No, we didn't listen to them. Thank you for your patience.

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But this is the thing A lot of commentators have said Charles That one of the problems Dutton has had Is that he's only gone on that sort of media He's only done that sort of media for years He hasn't had anyone asking him tough questions No this was a point I made on the No no respected commentators have made that point

Which is he's only done two public press conferences In the last year But I'm talking about things like going on With you know Raph Epstein ABC Melbourne things like that Yeah has actually been doing that during the campaign No no but before that It doesn't really work

Yeah, it doesn't work. He hasn't done National Press Club, which Arbo did today. Yeah. No, it's interesting. And if it is a two-term strategy, it's going to have a bit of work to do. But Paul Murray stands ready. If he's feeling a bit bruised after the loss, if it is a loss, he can go on Paul Murray. But I think it's on.

I'm calling it, Lib Spill is on. Like, there's no way Dutton. Dutton will survive for a few more months after the election. But they've got to be looking around. They've got to be, isn't it, is it Tudge's turn? Tudge. It's just a tudge Prospective Tudge government

There's a word for you Well I mean Susan Lee is the deputy Yeah But I guess the question is Who's left? This is the thing They lost a lot of moderates

Last time around Some of the people who might be likely I mean the question is And we shouldn't run a post morton Before the mortum But the bookies say it's over Yeah If Dutton were to lose

Yeah Just because I would look like less idiots If Ray Hadley's right And Dutton ends up winning But the whole thing is he's given up the teal seats. That very early on, there's no attempt to win back any of the teal seats. And I really question that because you have to win so many more seats to win office.

Or maybe pitted up and just quite sensibly went, look, there's not a chance. I'm going to win back, you know, Wallara. Alara is not fighting for done. Isn't it the whole Trump strategy, which is you reconfigure what your electoral coalition is? Yes, you get the working class with identity politics. Yeah, you get the sort of rusted on racist. and people who are bitter about their very existence. And you channel it.

And you tell them over and over again for like a decade that actually their life is shit and that they should resent everything about their life and, you know, that they have it worse than anyone else in the world. But this is the difficulty, Charles. And then you say that you're the only person who can say it. I mean, Peter Dutton is your man. The touch.

Tudge. The Tudge. The Tudge, Fudge, will save you. That thing is that has to ring true. And that's been the whole issue with this election from the get-go is that it was essentially the strategy was set in months ago and it was a question of who the time is favoured, right? Like Albo's whole approach to this was,

we're building a better Australia, we're positive, we're doing well, we're on the right track. Dutton's whole line is put Australia back on the right track. We're going on the wrong way. And you have to, there has to be a grudge in the community, a touch grudge, if you will. Yes. If there's no grievance from the community to tap into the way Tony Abbott did,

I mean, Tony Abbott... But there's tons to be grudgeful about. Like, couldn't you just tap into, like, the housing market? Well, six months ago, that would have worked. The problem is that things are looking slightly up. And also, they all own investment properties. Interest rate cuts probably coming on Tuesday. Oh, really?

It's not... It just seems less painful than it was. You know, certainly not... We're certainly not out of the cost of living crisis. So what you're saying is, ironically, Australia is getting back on track, which is what the Liberal Party's slogan is. But this is the whole point, is that so often election,

this has ended up being, we weren't going to talk about the election, we're going to talk about Trump's first 100 days, but Trump's first 100 days have produced this situation really where anyone with the grievance going, cost a living, it's really hard, he's actually going, holy crap, it can seem, things can be much worse than this, you know?

Things can be far more disastrous than this moment, maybe be thankful for what we've got, if Albanese wins. And I don't want to, I mean, certainly, everyone seems to think he will but I we've said it before on the podcast Charles betting on labour competence and success

we said this the moment Albert Easy won in 2022 on the podcast betting on labour competence is not a safe bet no no it's just it's it's a big call to say well this brilliant political machine

has steamrolled the Dutton machine but but yeah and it's actually this is the first time since I think was it 2007 was the last time that there was a swing to Labor in the last week traditionally Labor there's always a swing away

Yeah David Marr said this It's just a change between Monday and then the election day Yeah Kevin 07 yeah presumably that was the last time So just like just getting back to that thought about Who is doing the postmortem before the morton? Oh yeah and then who's going to be Just looking around

It's Angus Taylor Well, Angus Taylor would think Angus Taylor would be in the mix, I think. Yeah, I think he'd say, great work. Well done, I think it's. I, look, this is a bit of a curveball. If I were them, if I really wanted to do the Dutton-style campaign better, the grievance, the outsider stuff, the everything's wrong. I'd put him Barnaby Joyce.

He is good. I mean, the line of him being the most effective retail politician in the country. Is sort of true. I mean, the thing of lying down. That, yes, exactly. All that stuff. Who amongst us, I mean, hasn't wanted to.

Who amongst us has not had a nap on a big night out. Exactly. I think, and you saw him on that four corners show. What was it called? The, what was it called? The thought lines. What was it called? On nemesis.

He was brilliant on nemesis. Like, it's the one character in that whole show where you just go, I agree with him. It's an unconventional thing to put a nap in his, as the federal leader. Yes. But when you're looking at the liberal front bench, who else is there that even has name recognition?

And he could be the next Bob Hawke, couldn't he? Because he'd just go around. I think Blanche Daupecheau would find that offensive. But no, but in all honesty, in terms of who you'd have a beer with, that used to be Albo before he became a little bit, you know, nice suits. Yes. Albo's moved away from that and to the Central Coast.

And as long as Barnaby Joyce's children vote for him, that would get him a majority. But he had all those problems back in the day. But in all, honesty, who has name recognition out in the suburbs? If the coalition's going to stick with this strategy, who have the people in the outer suburbs heard of? They've heard of Barnaby Joyce. They haven't heard of Angus Taylor or Susan Lee or Alan Tudge or whoever else they might have. I'd love to know what sports better are giving for the next opposition leader. Next opposition. For Tudge. No, no,

for Joyce. For Barnaby. That's genius. Let's see what it is. Well, I mean, who else have people heard of in all honesty. What do you think? Oh, come on. What about Holly Hughes, the shadow assistant minister for mental health? You see, you as someone who's quite a political insider are currently Googling, prominent. What about Andrew Hastie? Exactly.

What about Jonathan Dunnium? Wait a minute. Wait a minute, wait a minute, wait a minute. We've got to think about this. I found a good bet for you, Charles, if you're wanting to bet on the election. Not that I endorse betting. No, I don't like betting at all. But if you were going to, there's election.

night novelties. Oh, yeah. When will Anthony Green call the election? Oh, yeah. Six to six to 59 is paying 11 to 1. I disapprove of this, by the way. But he definitely won't. Seven to eight is $7.50.

You know that there's an article in Crikey that we tipped Crocky off today about how evil all this gambling. Yeah. We should not be talking about it. But anyway, the point is that the most popular option is 9 till 9.59. I reckon that's a huge call that'll take that lot. No, it'll be 8 to 8.59. You can also bet on... You heard it here first.

When the leader will concede the highest rated election coverage, amazingly the ABC's favourite. And this is the stupidest one, colour of tie during the victory or concessions. Well, it's obvious. It'll be red for Albo and Blue for Dutton. Those are the favourites. Yes.

All right. What about yellow, Trump and Patriots, yellow? It's so banal. Just imagine all... $8.50. They're just making money out of people losing... What are you prepared to lose today, set a deposit limit is what it says. Yeah, in all honesty, we always say no to gambling advertising because we think it's terrible.

But it is interesting to know what the idiots who gamble will spend on. To our huge, remember, you know, a few years ago when we got a seven-figure deal, but it had to be done through that gambling website? Yeah, I think it was the end of our commercial radio career, the fact that we wouldn't do gambling ads. Anyway, I think we've hit, we weren't going to talk about the election. That was going to be the whole point. We're going to talk about Trump's first hundred days. But, Charles, you know what?

You've got to pay the bills somehow. You know what? It turns out we are actually slightly interested in the election after all. I'm kind of disappointed us. Yeah. We talked about it anyway. I'm sorry. Well, tomorrow, what we'll do is we'll do a special election eve version.

Special Election Eve episode. A special election Eve episode. And we'll do all the calls then. Okay. Okay. We're going to arrive prepared and we'll go through. and do all the calls on everything. You heard it here first.

I mean, tomorrow. We are part of the Aconiclass Network. Happy voting. Thank you for your patience. Your call is important. Can't take being on hold anymore. FIS is 100% online, so you can make the switch in minutes.

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