The Chaser Report - Breaking Into The Budget Lock-Up

Episode Date: March 26, 2025

In a Chaser Report first, Charles and Dom are officially inside the 2025 federal budget lock-up. Which means they know all of the details about this year's winners and losers. Charles tries to rewrite the metaphor of the budget, meanwhile Dom investigates all the best budget night drinking games.Watch OPTICS on ABC iview here:https://iview.abc.net.au/show/opticsCheck out more Chaser headlines here:https://www.instagram.com/chaserwar/?hl=enGive us money:https://chaser.com.au/support/ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Chaser Report is recorded on Gatigal Land. Striving for mediocrity in a world of excellence, this is The Chaser Report. Hello and welcome to The Chaser Report with Dom and Charles. Oh, Charles, we're in the budget lockup. It is so exciting. I just got to see Phil Coory from the Financial Review. And I think I saw Ross Gitton. Oh, my goodness, really?

Yeah, well, I saw him from behind, but I saw a really amazing bald patch. Can you introduce me? Is that all right? Oh, I don't know. Oh, you don't know. I'm a bit staster. Is that about crab here somewhere? I just sort of get tongue-tied when I meet with all these economists.

Economists, I know. And economics reporters. So that said, though, despite their many years of expertise, you're not going to find better analysis than right here on the Chaser report. There is one problem, which is we're recording this from the budget lockup before the budget's been delivered, which means we're not allowed to reveal any of the details that we definitely know. Yeah, that's true. I have in front of me all of the budget.

papers. I've had time to analyze them all in considerable detail. Oh, we're allowed to mention the amount of red ink? It's a lockup. The red ink that they've used? No, you can't even mention the colour of the ink. Okay, Lachlan, make sure you take that out. Have we seen anyone smoking cigars yet? That's always a great moment on budget day. All right, we're going to tell you exactly what we can't tell you after these ads. Oh, I'm so excited. We got asked though, child, for the first time. Yes, and they called specially. They did. They went, look, we've I've heard that the Chaser Report does the rounds in Parliament House. Yeah, I mean, you hypothesise that Peter Dutton listens, and that's probably enough for the Canber Kognoshen.

And also, I think that they probably realise that we're much easier to spin than... That's true. We are very gullible. Gosh, this budget looks fantastic. Except that I think Peter Dutton's objections in two days' time will also be very sound. But I think the thing is, Dom, that... And you won't hear this level of analysis anywhere else. Yeah, yeah.

Just bring out the big guns, Charles. Which is that in some ways, a government budget should be thought of entirely identically as a household budget. There's no difference between them. Yes, they're just like us, aren't they? It's so approachable. And I think what we should do is just analyse what a government who can print money and raise debt and has an infinite lifespan can do using metaphors only related to what we do in our own household, right? So I think, you know, it should just be a tortuous, extended metaphor that doesn't quite work.

Oh, so you're saying that what would be really helpful? Yes, if they explain the budget in terms that make sense to us poor minions with our household. So the way, you know how, you know, if you rack up a whole lot of credit card debt, that's bad. Very bad. That's bad. Cripling. Therefore, all government. debt is bad, right? Because it's basically the government just using a credit card.

Except that, isn't it fair to say, Charles, that just in general, the experience is entirely unlike what it's like having a massive credit card debt, which I have had in the past, as, you know, as someone in the creative industries, it is quite an obvious trap. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Oh, look, look, I have more money. And then, but then the thing is that they expect you to pay it back and they kind of hound you if you don't. I'm not sure that's quite the same for Jim Chalmers, if you were to, I don't know, extend the nation's credit card limit. Isn't America up to multiple trillions of debt without any trouble?

What I'm thinking, though, is because all the coverage is done with the metaphor of a household, which actually is a completely inappropriate metaphor, what we need to do is we need to make that metaphor more salient, right? And the way to do that is to allow every household to be able to print its own money. Right. So rather than trying to make the budget like Australian households, Yes. We should make Australian households like the budget.

Yes. So what you're saying essentially, for instance, is that you can change your own credit limit to whatever you want. You don't need any sort of means testing. You just put it up. And then does anyone chase you if you don't pay it? No. No. Oh, that's so relatable.

Yeah. Okay, now I understand the government budget. And I think also what I'd like to see in my household is at the moment, my kids get a bit of pocket money each week. Yes. I think instead I should be taxing them. That's a great idea. To help cover the national debt. Well, the health care you provide them, the meals, all that kind of stuff.

Yeah, yeah, that's a great idea. The roads you provide. Yeah, it's probably a little bit of, I don't know. Is there a hallway in your house that you fund? Yeah, exactly, yeah, exactly. The bedrooms that they occupy. Yeah, so. That is very good.

Tax the children. What else could be you to make the budget make sense to us all? I think cash payouts, we already know that there's going to be a cash payout from the government to help with power. bills. Yes. And it will be, I think, what, $150, something like that. So in household terms, it might be a nice, shiny $2 coin for everyone in your household. I like that. Which buys you at about half a coffee. Well, and also, is it a bonus for turning off the lights or something? I could be. Oh, no, except it's, no, it's for turning on the lights.

Turning on the lights, yeah. It's essentially trying to help you cover the cost of living. I do like, because, you know, they're talking about a gas bounty. Are they? Yeah, they're talking about should gas be taxed. Hang on a sec. Is this actually a detail of the budget? Oh, shit. No, shit. But hypothetically, what would a gas bounty look like?

They definitely won't bring in a gas bounty because they're beholden to the fossil fuel companies. But if they did, what we should implement in our household is a tax on farce. I just was wondering if you were going to go there. I was about five seconds ahead of you and going, yeah, he's going to do it. Because frankly, because we're in the budget lock up and we can't talk about the budget, No, exactly. You've just got to basically come up with jokes like that.

Charles, there's another problem with all this. I am. And that is that the budget is incredibly boring. We've been sitting here, mine and all these economic papers. Trying to work out, we can't tell you anything, but if we could, trying to make it kind of relatable to you and your life

and all that kind of stuff. And I'm already, this is why I didn't become an economist. This is why I should no longer worship Ross Kittins. I suppose he makes it relatively interesting. But isn't the whole point that we just basically read the commentary and say who had the better budget option. We don't actually engage with the detail. But also, don't you feel like part of the problem with economics as a discipline?

As a discipline. Is that it boils everything down to the value of dollars and cents. Whereas the whole point about lots of values in the world is that they don't have a monetary attachment. Oh, that's so true. How do you place a monetary value on the love of a mother for a child? How do you? Oh, well, I know.

Because Peter Costello did with the baby bonus. Oh, yeah. That's actually been done in a budget in the past. How do you value, like, a nation's cultural bounty? Are we nation's cultural heritage and richness? Yes, exactly. You defund the arts could be a thing you could potentially do. But I think it's just like we've fallen into this trap that everything,

the only things that are important, the things that have dollars and cents, you know, have attached to them. It's so poetic. And we've just sort of, we've got, like, politics used to be about things like integrity, which doesn't even cost that much. I mean, how much does the National Anti-Corruption Commission cost? I mean, it doesn't do any work, so it can't cost that much. I think I've got a trick-to-date too much.

I reckon they've come in under budget on printing out findings because they haven't made any findings. And so, I mean, we'll obviously get out of the lockout before the budget goes. Oh, yeah. We're going to go out there. We're in Canberra on the town. Yeah, so what are you doing tonight? Priming the economy. Right.

Charles, I'm prepared to just spend heavily at whatever that. What does that bar that have all the politicians gone drink at? Really? Yeah, it's called something like the killfire or something. It's some sort of seedy nightclub. Oh, God. Is that the place where senior politicians go with their staffers and basically everything gets leaked and lots of inappropriate things happening? No, no, but I don't think it does get leaked.

Oh, really? You know, I think what I actually happened is. happens is people are all handsy at that bar and what stays in Canberra, like what happens in Canberra stays in Canber? I don't want to go there. No, no, no, no. What I'm going to do is I'm going to have a massive budget night party at my house. Oh, really?

Yeah, just everyone. And we can just get out the popcorn and watch Jim Chalmers. It'll just be like, fuck. Is there a drinking go? It'll be like a, you'll have a raging budget night party. It'll be like the old days. You know, back in your 20s when you just take drugs and watch the budget. You know what I mean.

I didn't do that. But what I did do on budget night was the drinking games. Ah, yeah. Whenever someone says Beasley's Black Hole, you take a shot of San Booker. What's the equivalent this time round? It'd be like, it'll be bulk billing. Oh, it'll be Medicare. It'll be Medicare.

Take a shot every time they say. Basically, the aim is take a shot every time they mention Medicare in the budget to the point where you need the services of Medicare by the end of the night. But also, I reckon another certainty is that even though they've been in power for three years, Jim Sharma's blames previous government for something. Yes. I think that's a stored of every budget. In like the fourth Howard budget, you know, Costello was still blaming.

Labor was to blame. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, no, they get to play that card forever. Do you think they'll mention nuclear? If you're Jim Chalmers, do you mention the nuclear power tonight? Yeah, I think you see. I think if he mentions it, you do a shot of uranium. My understanding is the nuclear stuff has now become embarrassing,

not just for the, you know, for Dutton, but there's people in, the Liberal Party who, like it was revealed just this week that there was a bit of consternation about setting it up. Well, that's certainly Malcolm Turnbull talked about that. And it's sort of, on the radio this week. It's now actively fizzling. And so they're sort of scrambling to, because it's sort of a little bit too late to pull out of the nuclear stuff, but it's actually not working electorally like they hoped it would.

So it's all a bit of a disaster. Are you telling me, are you telling me that ordinary Australians are not embracing the concept of nuclear reactors being built? Well, it was saying, no, no, I'm not saying that. I remember we talked about the young guys who were sort of pro-nuclear. Young men. But I think because renewables is just so clearly economically more sensible, it's sort of not even grabbing on there.

You've got to remember when Peter Dutton talks about this, he doesn't say it's an either-or. It's renewables plus nuclear. Yeah. But haven't they accidentally sort of said that it's actually just to prop up the coal industry? Like Barnaby said that the other way. Oh, you don't listen to Barnaby. Oh, yeah, that's true.

Yeah, that's true. In fact, every time Barnaby Joyce's face appears in, like, in a cutaway to the chamber, I think that's a beer. Yeah. I think that's a full, I think that's a full tinny. But he's got a drink as well. No, Charles. Hasn't he giving it up?

Is he given up? I thought he had. What? Isn't Barnaby, you know, staying out of the flower boxes now? Really? I don't think so. All right, we'll have to fact check that one. Maybe we need another ad break while we do.

The Chaser Report, news a few days after a day. happens. Yeah, just to fact check, as of July 2024, he was sober after that wildly positive. Well, you mean like he was sober for a day in July 2020? No, no, he was sober, he says. I can't speak to March 2025 though. We might see what the papers have tomorrow and the condition of any planter boxes. He lost 15 kilos, apparently after that. Wow.

I should stop drinking. Or maybe I should start drinking and then stop. He probably drank 15 kilos of alcohol. whole per day. So it was only one day. So where does this leave us? Look, I guess the other thing to note, Charles, is this was the budget that the government wasn't intending to give, right? Like, the narrative, it's never been really confirmed, but this whole theory was they were going to go to the election before the budget, but the cyclone stuff things up. Isn't that just an illustration, Charles, that no budget really means anything because unpredictable things happen. Cyclones happen. Bad things happen in life. Every budget I've ever tried to make or whatever

has been meaningless because everything's changed. Why about the budgeting? It's just stressful. So are you calling for a radical overhaul of the Australian political system whereby we just don't have budgets? We just got a vibe. But wouldn't it be better, Charles, rather than having a budget which often isn't really stuck to, we just had a bunch of thoughts. It might be nice to spend more money on health. And just leave it at that, not say how much.

Because then he wouldn't break a promise. He wouldn't disappoint anyone. And he wouldn't have that thing where, you know how past governments have come in saying we're not going to increase taxes or whatever. and they've just broken the promise. And that was a bad vibe. It was sad for everybody. Yes. And then we'd have less talk about Beasley's big black holes.

Oh, no more black holes. Yes. So where is this taken as, Charles? The bottom line is we shouldn't have come. We were so excited about being in the budget lockup for the very first time. Yes. But actually, the whole thing is it's a charade. It's a wash.

It's a facade. Yes. And is it going to even impact how people vote on election day? Yes. What happens today? Definitely. You think it is? Yes.

And given what? we know about all the detail of the federal budget, what do you think the impact will be? I'm sorry, that's all we have time for. Well, we can't possibly reveal it. We can't mention it. No. We'll return tomorrow with an extremely detailed wrap of the budget or not. No, let's just leave it at that.

Should we go with my idea that the budgets don't matter? Isn't it true? I mean, we've already said this week that in Cook's law, every Australian election is determined by the most boring possible outcome. Yes. And so the budget doesn't change that at all, does it? If only they'd known Cook's law, they wouldn't have had to turn up to this. No, I think the thing is, what this does is this gives Labor an opportunity, because

they've just bounced back, they're now slightly ahead, and this gives Labor the chance to squander their lead again. Oh, right. Because it'll be some sort of, don't you reckon that they'll... Well, it's actually interesting, Charles, because if I may make an observation about the cycle so far, what I've noticed, and this other more expert, commentators may pick me up on this, but I've noticed that when Anthony Albanesey does a lot of the talking, Peter Dutton does better in the polls.

When Peter Dutton does a lot of the talk. Yes. Anthony Albanese does a lot of the better in the polls. So we're hearing the Treasury Jim Chalmers in the budget tonight, of course. Yes. So you have a big boost for the coalition. Two days later, Dutton will give his reply. It'll be.

It'll go the other way around. So I think maybe the election will be won by whoever says the least and does the least. And bothers Australians the least. In which case, I think Trump would have Patriots is looking very good. We did promise you wouldn't get analysis of the budget like this anywhere else. And I think, Charles, we have delivered on that promise. I do like the extra money for podcasts that they're giving it. Oh, no, not allowed to.

No, I'm not allowed to reveal details, particularly if it's a massive bribe to us. It's not something you're supposed to do. Don't worry. National Anti-Corruption Commission doesn't investigate anything anyway, so it doesn't matter. We're part of the Aconiclass Network. he can't be anything to say it after that. Yeah, we are. We certainly are. Happy budget.