The Chaser Report - How Does Kamala Change The US Election? | Emma Shortis

Episode Date: July 25, 2024

Dr Emma Shortis joins Dom Knight yet again, this time to unpack how Kamala Harris has shaken up the election entirely. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Chaser Report is recorded on Gadigal Land. Striving for mediocrity in a world of excellence, this is The Chaser Report. Hello and welcome to The Chaser Report. Dom here. Without, Charlesley, still working on his forthcoming TV show Optics. But we have once again Dr Emma Shortest Senior Researcher in the International and Security Affairs Program at the Australia Institute. Emma, welcome back. Thanks for having me back. It's good to be here.

There's been a new Democratic presidential, not quite presumptive nominee. people have pointed out, but presumptive, presumptive nomination, shall we say. Kamala Harris, the vice president, has swept Joe Biden aside in a sense. He got out of the way in the end. And let's talk about who she is, what it all means, and really how the Republicans are responding to this sudden personal change in just a moment here on the podcast. Right. So Joe went on Sunday.

What did you think when the news came through? I feel like I keep. saying that American politics is shocking but not surprising. I think we all expected that Biden probably wasn't going to survive that weekend, but it was still a shock, you know, to wake up in Australia at least and see that news. You know, it did feel like once he'd made the decision that happened really quickly. And then, of course, he endorsed Harris super quickly. And all of a sudden within kind of 24 hours, she was, I think, you know, you described her as the presumptive nominee. and I think that's accurate.

You know, it was only within a couple of days that American outlets were reporting that she'd secured enough delegates, you know, enough delegates had said that they would vote for her, that she had the nomination stitched up. And I don't think anybody thought that would happen quite so quickly. You know, there'd been so much wariness around Harris and her ability to campaign, which at least partly explained, I think, why Biden took so long to step aside. So the fact that she does have it stitched up so quickly is, yeah, again, and it's kind of surprising.

No serious contender put their hat in the ring. Marianne Williamson is how I think is interested in the position as ever. But no, it does seem as though this all happened very quickly. There was a concern that if it did happen this quickly, it might seem a bit undemocratic. But really, it seems to be a ringing endorsement. And it's really as though an adrenaline shot has been given to the Democratic Party as a result. They're all really running around like Joe Biden at the state of the union.

Suddenly, I was it jacked up. Joe, didn't they call him in the GIP? They did, yeah. It was one of the better nicknames, I think. And I think that's a really good description. Like, there seems to be this energy all of a sudden infusing the Democratic Party that kind of appeared so quickly. You know, Harris seems to have really energized people.

You know, she raised an extraordinary amount of money just in the first 24 hours. It was more than $80 million and had a list of endorsements from, you know, Congress people to unions, the black congressional corps. The list is super long. And you're right that no serious contender looks like they will challenge her, all of the names that were coming up. You know, Gretchen Whitmer, Gavin Newsom, they've all endorsed her. So for them to turn around and challenge her for the nomination would be pretty surprising, I think, at this stage. But it's been quite the experience. Like some of it almost feels a bit like 2008 Obama nostalgia-e, like the kind of romance that swept through, at least

part of, you know, a segment, I suppose, of American politics has been really quite something to watch. Yeah, and it's not every time, you know, you get to elect a first. And Kamala Harris has been several first things so far in her career. Hillary Clinton came out with an op-ed in the New York Times, which I'm sure she was just itching to write, reminding us all that she almost got there in one of the popular vote, but also pointing out this, even though the circumstances in which it's all come about are unique and complex and a bit awkward for Joe Biden, really. This will be an extraordinary moment, really, for America. There'll be in the list of presidents, for as long as there are presidents,

Kamala Harris's name will have an asterisk next to it, as the first woman and a woman of color at that. A term which, by the way, has been quite contested in Australia in the past few weeks, but it's a term she uses about herself. And it is meaningful that she has African American and also Indian American heritage. Yeah, I think it's really meaningful. You know, I've seen some, I suppose, analysis that's talked about her. heritage and the fact that, you know, she captioned her autobiography, something like an American journey, or I've got that wrong, but it's something quite similar to that. And I think

there is this real sense that she kind of embodies that particular story about the particular kind of good story, I suppose, about American multiculturalism and diversity. And her campaign and her supporters, I think, are using that, at least for the moment, really effectively as a contrast, of course, to the Trump campaign and the Trump vance ticket and are energizing supporters, you know, in terms of the enthusiasm, I think, for electing the first woman of color as the president of the United States. There's been reports that, you know, in a couple of days after Biden withdrew, there were, you know, Zoom meetings organized to get kind of grassroots, volunteers mobilized. And one particular meeting of black women, voters and volunteers,

ended up having something like 40,000 plus people sign on to this Zoom meeting. which just gives you a kind of indication, I think, of the enthusiasm on the ground for Harris. Like, of course, you know, there are lots of questions about whether that will last, how much of it is kind of manufactured or just, you know, sheer relief at the fact that it's not Biden and Trump again, you know, there was such despair, I think, and dissatisfaction in America about that being the choice, that the fact that the choice now appears to be quite radically different in and of itself, I think is super energizing for. for American politics.

Yeah, look, none of the above was appealing to a lot of the electorate for a while there. They now have a new person. I mean, I have, my in-laws are from the same, I guess, South Asian community as Kamala Harris, with their roots in Tamil Nadu state in India. And as you say, black women have gotten out in droves. They're generally the most loyal demographic segment we always hear for the Democrats. So we'll see how they go.

And I mean, already, I mean, you can see the case for change. And I guess Joe Biden in the end was convinced that even if he didn't think it was necessary, a shot in the arm and a move to a younger generation was going to be what he had to do. Look, it certainly appears that way, Dom. You know, it's difficult, I think, to kind of pass Biden's decision making. But it does seem as though he was convinced particularly by Pelosi and those arguments about, you know, saving Congress and particularly some opinion polling, some pretty

disastrous opinion polling for him in swing states that he won last time around that was suggesting he would lose those states, you know, states he absolutely would need to win to hold on to the presidency. And so it does appear that he's been convinced by that and does seem now convinced that Harris can do it. You know, he's phoned into one of her first campaign events to offer his support. And I think, you know, has really, with that speech from the Oval Office, which happened this morning, as we're recording, really has kind of cleared the way for her, you know, to say that he's going to see out the end of his presidency and kind of do that from an almost, you know, aloof sort of statesman-like place and allow her to run that campaign, you know, which is, as you

say, like such an incredible contrast to his, which, you know, as from the Oval Office today, was kind of somber and focused very much on the threats to American democracy, which Harris is doing as well. But, you know, doing, I think, from a place of hope and joy, you know, she laughs at things at her campaign events, which is maybe a mark of the kind of despair that's infected all of American politics. But the fact that she's like laughing and kind of leaning into some humor about Trump in particular, you know, and her contrast to him, I think, as we've discussed, is such a potential energizer for American politics. politics and something that just Biden could absolutely never have done.

Donald Trump has already tried a few nicknames. His first reaction was Luffin, L-A-W-F-I-N-A-N-A-Postrophe. I don't know he loves the apostrophes, but he does. Luffin Kamala as a way of trying to belittle her, really, based on her love of a good laugh. The thing is, though, people who laugh, it's actually quite an endearing characteristic. And so that seems to have been abandoned, and he's now stuck with Lion with that, again, with the N-apostrophe, Lion Kamala, Simis. the latest one. Tell me a bit about Kamala Harris, your impressions of her, how she went in

California when she had a fairly brief stay in the Senate, but also her time as vice president. And I guess it's also important to mention, as she has been repeatedly her time as a prosecutor, which serves up a fairly erotic contrast with Donald Trump giving his legal troubles. Yeah, and she's really leaning into that, isn't she, you know, using those lines about when she was a prosecutor. She went after sex offenders and fraudsters and felons. And so she knows Donald Trump's type. She's really leaning into that contrast and that record as a prosecutor. I think the thing about Harris is that Americans actually don't know her that well, Dom. You know, as you've described, she kind of was attorney general in California and, of course, was well known

there, but not necessarily nationally. And then had a little stint in the Senate and then a run for the the nomination, the Democratic nomination in 2020. And she had a few kind of standout moments in that campaign, one in particular where she went after Joe Biden in a debate about his history of working with segregationist senators and some pretty dicey positions that he had on busing. But she sort of crashed and burned, really. Maybe that's fair. But she did crash out of the nomination process even before the primaries had begun.

And then, of course, was elevated to prominence. again when Biden chose her as his vice president. And she was meant quite clearly that choice was meant as a symbol, or I guess this kind of symbolic fulfillment of Biden's promise to be a generational bridge for the Democratic Party, you know, for a young and diverse party being led by an old white dude. This was a kind of indication that he was going to be that bridge. But as vice president, she was very much in, I think, in Biden's shadow,

which is really inevitable generally for vice presidents, but there are some pretty strong arguments, I think that she wasn't especially initially treated particularly fairly, like he gave her ownership of immigration, which is much like it is here, always a kind of poison chalice, really. Hospital pass, yeah, yeah. Exactly, exactly.

But she did, particularly, I think, in the last kind of six months, she has gotten stronger, I think, in her performance, particularly as she's been focused on and really owning reproductive. rights in the campaign. That's an area where she is really particularly strong. And I think probably part of the calculation amongst many Democrats was that that's going to be a critical mobilizing factor in the election. And if we go back to Biden's performance, his responses to questions about reproductive rights in the debate were completely disastrous. You know,

even those hospital passes that he was given by the moderators. He just couldn't communicate on an issue that is a critical mobilizer. And that's a real controversy. to Harris. So I expect we'll see a lot more of that. And, you know, a lot more of that kind of leaning into to fund. She does that quite well, I think. But, you know, she can also be a bit, a bit weird and is also, I think on the kind of scale of American left, the left of politics in the United States is pretty conservative. You know, that's why Biden chose her. She's not a radical. And so whether that energy is maintained, especially on the left of the party, is still an open question, I think.

Yeah, so we still have much to learn about Kamala Harris, I feel. But it is hard not to remember the Obama energy and the stadiums to hear him speak. And Donald Trump clearly generates that same excitement and a movement on the right. We'll see what Harris does in terms of rallies rather than the country. But it does feel, yes, as though there's actually suddenly a wave of enthusiasm that has been unleashed that simply isn't possible for someone we knew as well as Joe Biden and the electorate knew as well as Joe Biden. So Kamala Harris has a lot to do. What are the early signs in terms of polls? I certainly have seen a few polls as being quite guarded in their response thus far.

But the real argument, I guess, that was put to Biden was that the party not only couldn't win with him as the candidate, but would do terrible things to its chances in both the House and the Senate, bearing in mind that if Donald Trump is president and they want to try and stop him unleashing the Project 25 agenda that we talked about last time we chatted Emma, they will need to try and block him. They can't do that if they lose the House and the Senate. So that's the argument. How's it looking?

I think, I mean, I'm taking the easy way out, but I think it's too early to tell. You're right that there have been some polls out, which haven't shifted heaps. Like, correct me if I'm wrong, but the ones that I've seen, especially the national polls, I think still have Trump marginally ahead.

but I think it's going to take polling a while to catch up. Like, you know, so much has happened in the past few weeks, and I think people are still processing it. We've had the assassination attempt, of course, the kind of chaos around Biden and then his withdrawal and Harris's, you know, kind of almost immediate ascension to presumptive nominee. So I think it will take polls a while to catch up. I have seen some quite interesting analysis of states like Georgia, which will.

also be a critical, we expect, I think will be a critical swing state. You know, the Senate race there went to a runoff last time around. So we're talking really, really slim margins. And I think the potential for Harris to be a mobiliser in a state like Georgia, which has a significant African-American population, of course, and pretty, pretty impressive ground game and organizing on the part of the Democrats led by Stacey Abrams. You know, I think it's likely that Harris could perform really, really strongly in a state like Georgia where, you know, I think people are sick of Trump in much the way we were discussing before that, you know, people are sick of both Biden and Trump. They don't want either of them. And so again, having that choice,

you know, potentially energizes voters. I think what will be really clear indication of what the polling is doing is who Harris picks as her vice president. That will kind of tell us where they think they need to focus on, you know, which states they need to focus on which voter demographics. topics they need to focus on. So, you know, there's a reason. I think there's been so much speculation about who she's going to pick. Yeah, it's interesting to think back to on the role that Joe Biden had in the Obama administration. And when Obama picked Biden, it was clear that the message was, I'm the exciting person on this ticket. I'm choosing Biden to overcome any perception that I don't know what I'm doing and that we have an experienced head when it comes

of things like foreign policy. And my impression of that administration was that Biden was far more central to it, even though Obama overruled him on things. He was always in the room and always, I think Obama described him as the last person he spoke to on major decisions and so on. I didn't get the sense that Kamala Harris

had that elevated position in the Biden administration really much at all. She was given a couple of projects to do, some of which were difficult, as you've been saying, Emma. So in terms of picking a partner, it's not just about who can give you votes you might need. It's about potentially a strong governing partner. Goodness knows, in the case of Dick Cheney,

someone who seemed to be running much of the federal government during George W. Bush's time in the Oval Office, but also your successor, as we've seen here, in the event that something untoward happens. Do we know, does she like any of these candidates? I've seen a lot of analyses of the electoral maths involved of different choices. But the person she's got a sort of intuitive individual bond with

you think would also be a good thing in a partner like that. Yeah, I think that's a really good point, Dom. And actually, I've not really seen anybody talk about it from that perspective, that this is somebody you're going to have to work with, presumably for at least four years. And, you know, they'd be hoping for at least eight. And so that choice is absolutely critical. And I think you're so right to point out the role that Biden played for Obama, because, you know, the other thing was Obama had been a senator, but just didn't have the kind of weight of experience that Biden did in wrangling Congress, you know, in getting legislation

through. And that's the role that he played. You know, he was kind of a negotiator. And also, they're like reassuringly white old dude who could talk to the other old white dudes in the Senate and kind of bring them along. He spoke old white dude. He really did. Fluently. And so does Harris need someone like that, you know, who can wrangle Congress for her the way that, you know, LBJ did for JFK?

Like there's a long history of that kind of move. So it's, yeah, it's a super good point to him because all of the analysis, most of the analysis as I've seen, is on that kind of shallow, you know, what are her political weaknesses in the eyes of the electorate, how are she going to offset them? And inevitably, that means the list of potential candidates thrown up by the media is white men, often kind of from the Midwest. So, yeah, it will be so interesting to say kind of what her calculation is there.

In a moment, how the Republicans are reacting to this. And I think not well is the summary. We'll find out more in a second. The Chaser Report. More news Less often Okay, so among the reactions

Emma from the GOP to this dramatic change of democratic inevitable nominees at this stage Donald Trump has accused the Democrats of fraud and said he should get a refund

because they spent all this time planning to fight against Biden they had a whole convention where the theme was that Trump was better than Biden they made that case and then three days later Joe Biden dropped out

potentially convinced by their arguments. No, not at all. But in fact, quite well-timed, as it turned out, in terms of resting back momentum onto his side of politics. What are some of the responses you've seen for the Republicans? And how much do you think they're worried about this complete recalibration at the race? I think, I think, Domney, they are pretty worried. You know, you mentioned Trump's response. And he does, the tantrum kind of seems to be escalating a little bit. You know, initially he didn't go that hard for Trump. I have to put that asterix in. But he does seem to be kind of stamping his feet harder and leaning into this kind of facetious argument about being

anti-democratic and Harris being an illegitimate candidate, which of course is a tried and true tactic for him. And, you know, there were calls as they always are, you know, initially for Trump and his surrogates in particular to kind of tone down the rhetoric and not go after, you know, Harris's identity. But of course they can't resist that. You know, that's kind of, that was something something Trump was always going to lean into. You know, this is a guy that rose to national political prominence off the back of a racist bertha conspiracy about the first black president, you know, who in his eyes and the eyes of so many of his supporters

couldn't possibly be a legitimate candidate for the presidency. And you can see that pattern repeating with Harris and the fact that she's a woman as well just adds so much more fuel to the fire. And so even he's, you know, the lamest of Trump's nicknames, you know, about Laugh and Kamala Harris is kind of leaning into this like characterization of, you know, women and particularly black women as like cackling witches and the lying as well, you know, this kind of scheming woman image. And they're also really leaning into this narrative around her as a DEI candidate, so a diversity, equity and inclusion candidate, which again is designed.

It's a bit nasty. It's, it is. It's again, shocking, not at all surprising, given what we know about American politics. And the whole point is to de-legitimize her, you know, that basically nobody but a white man could possibly have gotten to the position there in on merit alone. And, you know, I just think that's worked so well for Trump and the movement behind him until now. There's no reason to think he's not going to keep going down that road. Of course he will. And it has gotten personal. There's been discussion of the fact that she hasn't had children. And in fact, the second gentleman, Her husband has spoken in her defence. This is really quite ugly stuff.

It's really ugly. And we've experienced some of that, of course, in Australia as well. So I don't think it comes at all as a surprise. I think the campaign would have been ready for it. There's no way that Harris and her team wouldn't have known this was coming. They've already been experiencing it. It's just kind of ratcheting up to another level. But it is ugly and it's really dangerous.

And I think it's especially dangerous given, you know, that we already know that politics in America is incredibly volatile. So it's pretty horrible to watch. And I guess, you know, from our perspective, we can hope that the kind of romance of Harris's candidacy outshines that, you know, and Biden spoke about that in his address today, you know, that kind of love in response to hate argument. It has gotten personal. And a lot of it's been led by J.D. Vance to Bryce. vice presidential candidate and senator from Ohio, who is also very new to national politics. It's been suggested, though, that some within the Trump camp are even regretting their choice now that they're up against Kamala Harris, which is interesting. Donald Trump has denied this,

but can we believe that denial? It just shows, I guess, how much this race has transformed, Emma. Absolutely. I just, like, it's so funny, Dom, that, you know, a few days, a few days later, the rumors are that they're regretting J.D. Vance's, the pick of J.D. Vance. You know, he was, kind of spun as this incredible speaker, a charismatic speaker, and he is, you know, I've seen him, but has since kind of on the stumps said some pretty weird things and maybe hasn't been as deferential to Trump as he perhaps should have been. And we know how Trump feels about that. So, you know, it's not surprising, I think, that things are getting shaky. And of course, there's also been all over that emphasis on, you know, what Vance said about Trump before he had

his kind of miraculous conversion and while they, you know, I would expect would have anticipated that when they made the choice, that probably doesn't change the fact that when it's actually happening, it would be supremely irritating to Trump. And you put that alongside the kind of early success of Harris. And you can totally see why he would both want to direct blame at Vance and also, you know, potentially jettison him. So we've gone from a rehash that almost nobody wanted to a historic race, really, the first ever woman of color to be a major party candidate, and only the second in history. And someone who has to talk about this stuff almost every day of TV, Emma.

Are you more excited about covering the race now that the change has been made? Are you sharing whether, you know, not necessarily saying you endorse one side over the other, but just the fact that we're talking about somebody relatively new rather than Biden v. Trump chapter a million. It's totally energizing, Dom. Like, I have no problem admitting that. Because, you know, I think lots of people who watch American politics had fallen into that real kind of despair about the race. But also, you know, what's it static? You know, Biden's not wrong to say that this is a battle for the soul of America and especially as someone who

watches Trump and the kind of policies beneath him really closely. Like, it is genuinely really concerning the threat that he poses to American democratic institutions. Like, that has huge implications for the United States and for us as well. So to see that kind of injection of energy into the race and also, I think, a genuine choice for Americans is, it is exciting and it certainly makes it more interesting and less kind of pit of despair stuff. A pit of despair is still there, but it feels like at least for the last couple of days we've been able to crawl out of it.

I mean, come on, Emma, his supporters only try to overthrow American democracy that one time. I know, sorry, so dramatic. Yeah, it does make me wonder, though, if he does lose this election, there'll be quite the explosion. And it could be a scary day. I think I'm not going to want to be in the US in November, even if anyone masks me to be for election day, because who knows what will happen? Yeah, look, same, absolutely same. And I kind of already thought that before Biden had withdrawn just because exactly as you've described, the kind of volatility and the normalization of political violence. But when you add to that, the potential backlash to having a woman of color elected to the presidency, I think you do have a potentially quite scary situation. Like nothing is inevitable, of course, but what hasn't changed is the fact that American democracy teeters, really teeters on the brink. Well, I would say the one thing we know for certain is that Donald Trump won't be on the ballot in four years' time. But actually, I can't say that.

No, I can't even say that. Yeah. Even if he wins the presidency, there's every chance he'll try and find a way to have a third term who can say. As now the oldest candidate in American history, given that the other one has dropped out. All of this said, Emma, it's just fascinating. I can't look away from it.

And thank you for indulging me once again in bringing up to speed on all that's happening. Time we next speak, I imagine. There will be two completely different candidates, possibly settling the election in the UFC octagon. I just don't know. I'm hoping it's a confirmation of UFOs. That's my lax wand, hopefully. Oh, that's the next thing. Okay. Yeah. Yeah. Hopefully we can talk about that next time. How many votes do they get at the DNC? Are they super duper delegates? I don't know. We'll find out. All right. Thanks very much for joining us, Emma. Thanks, Tom. Aguies from Roe with part of the iconic class network. And we'll catch you next time.