The Chaser Report - The Underdog vs Underdog Election

Episode Date: April 13, 2025

The Liberals launched some new policies over the weekend, featuring the familiar and likeable faces of Scott Morrison and Tony Abbott. To explain why this is an elaborate move of "7D chess" by Dutton, Charles and Dom have all the insight you need that isn't on policy. Watch OPTICS on ABC iview here:https://iview.abc.net.au/show/opticsCheck out more Chaser headlines here:https://www.instagram.com/chaserwar/?hl=enGive us money:https://chaser.com.au/support/ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Chaser Report is recorded on Gadigal Land. Striving for mediocrity in a world of excellence, this is The Chaser Report. Hello and welcome to The Chaser Report with Dom and Charles. Now, Charles, I don't want you to get too excited. I don't want you to lose your head, as you sometimes do, but we actually have not just one, but two sets of new policies for addressing a couple of things, the cost of living, and in particular, how first homeowners can get into houses. The rest of got some new ideas in the election campaign.

Dom, Dom, Dom, Dom, Dom, Dom, Dom. Charles. First rule of covering elections is don't go into the, like, you're just, you're going into the grass, you're getting all confused by all the policies that people are putting out there. That is not how to cover this election. I've just opened up the Sydney Morning Herald website.

No. As we record, it says watch live, Liberals launch campaign in Western Sydney, head of Labor's Perth pitch. And the top image on the Herald website right now is Tony Abbott talking to Scott Morrison at the launch. It is an amazing flashback. Are you sure that's the image that Peter Dutton would want

on the front page of the Herald right now? One guy who got dumped by his own party and then lost his seat to the first teal, Zali Stegel. And then Scott Morrison, who was, you've always said Charles, the internal polling showed that it was literally all about him. The last election was basically, it was personal. That's what Labor, that's what Labor's polling show. In 2022.

Yeah, that, uh, no, but Dom, Dom, you've, you've made a huge mistake. And it's typical of you in the mainstream media. Oh, what have I done? What have I done? Just focusing on all the things that Dutton might not want in this campaign and things like that. And I am here to tell you, and I have a theory about this election, which is that actually, if you put aside all the things that have happened, right? Right.

Let's do that. Let's put aside all the details. All the policies and the detail, exactly. All this sort of distraction, right? I think it's pretty clear to me, it's becoming clear, that Peter Dutton is a political genius. Okay, okay. And a lot of people are going to have egg on their faces in three weeks' time

when they turn around and they see a wall of blue. Are you calling it? You're calling the election now. Yeah, okay. Yeah. Yeah, I am. Yeah. If you ignore it, everything.

It's been said and done. You're calling it with a big caveat that you're not going to look at a single detail. Okay, I'm fascinated to see how this unfolds after a few ads. Okay, so Dom, what is the thing that Australian voters hate most in a leader? What is the one thing that actually unseats every single prime minister? Oh, I think what they really don't like is occasionally there's just a policy that's just really on the nose. Like, I don't know, to choose a random example, the Knights and Dames,

and making Prince Philip a knight. No, no, no, no, no. That is way too specific, Dom. Like, we're talking in general the vibe. Well, what about Kevin Rudd's CPR that he couldn't get up and the girls were on a challenge about time? Dom, just go with me on this one.

Like, what's the sort of vibe that you... Okay, are we going to zoom out? Malcolm Turnbull being rich. No, that's... Again, too specific. I'm getting too granular. on actual things. What's the emotion that when they see in a Prime Minister,

they go, oh, yeah, I hate that. I'm going to get rid of him. Well, I think Peter Dutton's hoping that it's weakness and that Anthony Albanese is perceived as weak. He said it every soundbite for many months now. But I suspect you've got a grand theory, which is probably... No, yes. You're completely wrong.

And it's unsaid at every Prime Minister, which is cockiness. Cockiness. Yes. People hate... Australians hate a tall poppy, right? And it is the fate of every government. John Howard said this best, which is it is the fate of every government that eventually they'll lose their humility.

And that's when Australians turn against their prime ministers, right? Oh, Charles, this is a brilliant theory. It even happens to John Howard. This explains everything, right? Except for Bob Hawke. The theory falls down at Bob Hawke. But except for Bob Hawke, I think you're right. Oh, because he was always arrogant and cocky.

He was the cockiest prime minister we've had, but people actually liked that in the 80s were a different time, Charles. Yeah, that's right. Everyone was on cocaine. Like, you can't... Cockiness was, that was the price of walking in the door. But no, John Howard, it's true. I mean, the story of Howard work choices came through

and people thought he was going too far. Compared to everyone else in the 80s, Bob Hawke was actually not cocky. Oh, okay. Because everyone else was on cocaine as well. They were even more. Yeah. So that was just Bob.

was just being his natural self. Remember he didn't drink when he was prime minister? Yeah, I know. Maybe that was, maybe that's the only way he could achieve the level of humility required. Anyway, so the point is, I think what is going on in Peter Dutton's camp. This is why I think everyone's going to look back and go, what a fucking genius, right? Which is he's lulling the Labor Party into a false sense of security. So, you know, a few months ago, you know, everyone was certain that Peter Dutton was going to win. Yeah, the polls were very good to him. He was looking on a winning trajectory a few months ago. But during this campaign, as you say, Charles,

Labor has been in the lead on most polls. I think the last one I saw was 52 and a half to 47 and a half. That's a, they might even win a majority. But that didn't happen by mistake. That is an intentional master plan, master stroke by Dutton, to keep stuffing up so that Labor stops being so humble in their approach.

So the thing is that at the beginning of the year, Albo and the rest of the underdog knew that they had to an uphill fight just to even get a minority government, right? There was a real risk that Dutton would take over and so they were all humble and everything like that. And I think what has happened is

Dutton and his genius strategies have sat down and gone if we just consistently fuck up every single week and just do things like nobody nobody backtracks on a policy that they've held for months and months and months, one week into an election.

No one goes, oh, you know what I'm going to do? You know how I said, we're going to sack 41,000 people, we're not going to sack 41,000 people? And then, at the end of that week, after you've had a policy reversal, get a senator, James Patterson, to come out and say, well, actually, there will be some, there will be a bit of, you know, voluntary redundancies as well as natural nutrition and confuse the whole thing. Like, nobody, nobody does that, you know, out of choice.

That is a strategy. So, Charles, are you saying, for instance, when Justinta Amperjimpa Price went yesterday in front the microphone, she kind of took over the press conference from Peter Dutton. And she said, we're going to make Australia great again at one point. And this is after Peter Dutton, it's spent quite a bit of time distancing himself from Donald Trump, given that in the past, as we've said, some of his policies were quite Trumpian, the public service, the efficiency, so on. And she will run an efficiency unit, apparently, if Dutton wins government.

So you're saying that... shadow minister for government efficiency There you go. So if you get up, if she gets up and says something so overtly Trumpian, you're saying that was a bid to secure underdog status just in case they would have found out. Because it's been coming out of the Labor camp

that they see Dutton's real weakness is the link to Trump. And they're trying at every turn to link it. So what more masterful stroke that Dutton could pull out over the weekend then to get a minister to do that exactly for, a shadow minister, to do that exactly for him. You know what I mean?

Like, that is, and what people don't understand is everyone else is playing checkers or 3D chess or 4D chess. Duns on like level 6 or 7D at least. Wow. Eighth dimensional chess. Because what's going to happen, and I guarantee this is going to happen is over the next few weeks, Labor and Labor is going to get more and more assured of their victory. Did you just say Labor and Labor?

What? Did you say Labor and Labor is going to get more assured of their victory? Yeah, Labor, what's going to happen is Labor is going to get more and more assured of their victory, right? And as the polling comes in, because the polls will start shifting towards Labor, and what that means is they'll get more cocky, right? And it'll get to the point where probably in the last week of the election, people were going, well, it's in the bag for Labor because all the polling is going this way. And Dutton keeps on stuffing up announcements and doesn't sort of get anything right

and doesn't seem to be able to even reset the sort of thing. And then Australians will go, hang on, Alba actually thinks he's going to win. How arrogant of him. I'm going to vote for the other guy, right? And then everyone on election day, thinking Labor will win and thinking how arrogant it is that Labor seems to think they'll win, will vote for the Liberal Party. Well, Charles, I think you could be on to something here, actually,

if I'm going to actually take you seriously for one second, which I don't like to do. But Charles, one of the hottest contests in any Australian poll, we've known this for a very long time, is for underdog status. And I remember I think last time around, Scott Morrison was very much pitching himself as the underdog and Anthony Albanesey, making the point that his party been out of office for nine years was claiming he was the underdog status. And I'm very, you'll be very happy to hear this, Charles. But your theory is in fact agreed with by none other than Australia's.

final as political analysts. Oh, yeah, yeah. Who? Peter Credlin. Peter Credlin writes in the Daily Telegraph. In fact, yesterday, Underdog Dutton is still in the fight. She says with polls 50, 50, 50.

The polls aren't 50, 50, but anyway. She says roughly 50-50, which is generous. And betting markets favoring Labor. Peter Dutton is once more the campaign, underdog, and that should give him a license to go for broke. Now, when she says that, Charles, do you think she means go for broke in terms of giving it all, leave nothing out there?

Or do you think she means bankrupt the Australian? economy. I'm not sure which definition of broke she's going for. Well, I think probably the best way for Dutton to win this election is to come out and announce that Trump's style, he will bankrupt the Australian economy, because that will guarantee underdog status. Do you see what I mean? So to make us the economic underdog. Yes. Yes. Right. So when we're talking, doing new trade negotiations with developing countries, if our economy is in worse shape, we'll be able to get a better deal. Exactly. And so if we turn now to what's happened on Sunday with the, you know,

policy launches. Let's just take a moment for some ads before we do that, actually. The Chaser Report. More news. Less often. So we're recording this sort of midway through launch day. As I mentioned, the coalition one is underway. We've had Tony Abbott and Scott Morrison dressed in blue. Joe, I'm sure John Howard's somewhere there as well. He's been about on the campaign trail as well. How are you, as Australia's most respected political commentator, Charles, how are you calling the new ideas that they've had today? I know you didn't want to talk about them, but it seems like you know what you want to now. Well, now that you've got the broad brushstroke, we can now have a look at those policies based on my mode of analysis and

they totally fit in. They completely confirm my sort of thing because the centrepiece of Dutton's announcement is a temporary tax cut for middle Australians. Yeah, so basically or something for people on a median income, just as a one-off. Yeah, as an offset to your tax bill, right? Just as a one-off, right? And the whole thing about that is Labor's tax policy, which is admittedly a lot less, right, is permanent, right? And they've been using the word permanent, right?

Because it's something that then, you know, you can go, oh, okay, over the course of 10 years, that's actually going to build up to be quite a bit of money. Whereas this temporary one is just sort of locks in, Dutton, in the underdog status because he's going to give you something and then take it away a year later which is you know no one would want to really vote for like that's a sort of terrible policy but genius if what you're trying to do is drive your polls down to give albo a thoughtful sense of security Charles it seems a big call to me

to look at the two policy platforms at this point and saying that Australians will not Well, the Australians will turn down the quick and easy hit of extra cash in the next few months. I mean, this is the sort of thinking, you know, short-term economic interest is the way that policies worked in this country for many, many years. We don't plan for the future. We don't build new industries. We just take a cash grab, don't we? Yes, but I don't understand why you would vote for something that's going to expire in 12 months.

It's just like, oh, okay, so we'll just feel really worse off in 12 months. So I don't know about you, but the way I budget is I just spend what I've got. Right. Of course. That way you don't have to think about it. Yeah. So then the thing is you'll feel much worse of having that tax cut taken away from you in 12 months time. Like it's like taking a, it's like having a nice hot shower today and then being told, oh, and then a year later, you'll have constantly cold showers the next two years. It's a very good question.

It's a very good question, Charles. Would we prefer a larger cash hit now in terms of the tax refund? or less, what was it, five bucks, whatever it is per week, going on an ongoing basis. I'd love to see a poll on that. I suspect, given that lotteries advertise on a quick cash hit now, I think there's one product where it gives you like 20 years of a reasonable salary. Look, if you're right, Dom, this is a disaster for Dutton,

because if he's now launched a popular policy, then this completely undermines the masterstroke, which was to drive down his polls so that he's the underdog. get cocky. If this is a good policy, then Labor's going to be worried. They're going to bring out the humility and then it's all over for Dutton. Well, we'll see. But Charles, there's another aspect of this as well, which is the housing policy.

So they've both put housing policies out there. If I recall correctly, Labor's policy is that first homeowners can have just a 5% deposit. The government will guarantee the rest so they don't need mortgage insurance, lender's insurance. And then they can go out and buy a house and the government's going to help build some of these houses, apparently. Whereas the Dutton idea is to give first homeowners, at least those who pass a means test five years of being able to deduct their mortuary payments off their tax bills. So he's making first home buyers into negative gearers in the house they live in for five years.

Oh, that's genius. That's a genius policy. Negative gearing for all, not just the rich. Well, first home buyers is who it's for. And if you're super rich, you can't get it. unlike some of those hard ones, which anyone could get. So there is actually a cap on this one. How do you see that? What I'm glad is that neither side is addressing the underlying fundamental problem, which is that housing is treated as an asset to get yourself rich rather than something to actually provide shelter.

And I like the fact that neither side has recognised that even just 30 years ago, a quarter of the housing market was actually provided by the government and now less than 1% is. Is that something you think you'd forget, Charles, if you had grown up in a government provided home? Let's say, yeah, I think you would.

It's like Henry the 4th. About 60 years ago? Yeah, it's like Henry the 4th. You just forget all your old friends as you ascend the throne. That's how it works. Wow, what a reference that is. Or is that to be the 5th.

Anyway. See, but can I just point out, Dom, that at this point, As soon as we got into actually a discussion about the policy, you got incredibly boring. Oh, yeah. Right? So let's zoom right back out again. We've got to zoom back out and go, it's actually, like, if at a macro level, I think what has happened today is, like, the problem is to Dutton, you know, like, if we're being quite honest, he needs, he needs a Hail Mary, doesn't it?

He needs some sort of policy that's going to absolutely shift the dial back in his favour, isn't it? It needs a big announcement. Well, I mean, I was thinking so, Charles, but you might have convinced me for the time being that none of the announcements matter, and it's just a sort of vibe thing about who's going to win and who seems like a decent bloke. The question is going to be, who would you rather have a beer with? Isn't that the way these things are always decided?

Yeah, okay. But what if neither is the old woman? So does that mean David Pocock is going to win? That's the guy to quality analysis you get from us here at the Chaser Report. Would you have a beer with David Pocock? Don't you reckon he's the most interesting out of everyone in that parliament? Well, just because he's a former wallaby. I mean, you just wanted to ask him about being a wallaby.

Yeah, exactly. You'd get some good yarns. Andrew Lee, you could ask him about being a former economist. Yeah, exactly. You don't want that. Like, who would you? Because most of the people there are just career politicians, right? So the only thing you can ask them about is, so, what's it like to be in Parliament?

And it's so boring, right? Like, you want real-life experience people. I suppose Zali Stegel would be interesting. Oh, she'd be interesting too. Yeah, she'd be a good one. You could ask Anthony Almanese about what it was like being a head kid. kicker for the socialist left factored fashion at the ALP. Yeah, yeah.

Imagine the yards. What it was like going to all those pro-gaza rallies. Do you remember the Rats in the Rank movie where Albo comes up at the end and sorts it all out and he won't go on camera? But he won't go on camera. Yeah, that was great. That was a great movie. And Peter Nutt, and I'm sure I'd have a few stories about being a Queensland cop.

And let's leave that thought there. I think you have achieved a Kred Lannian level of analysis in this podcast. There's nothing more for us to say. Who's going to win after all that? You're going to call the election. I'm calling the election, which is the Dutton. Because I think, look, today it may feel like, oh, these policies might actually, you know, get a few votes, right?

But I think what's going to happen is he'll probably backtrack on the policies by the end of the week, right, and do some other. Like, there'll be some other, like, if we know anything about Dutton, it's like he's just going to stuff it up somehow. Well, over the next week, which means that Alba will get arrogant, and Dutton will win. So that's my prediction. The other thing to remember is that given that Scott Morrison's now out on the campaign trail, anything could happen.

Have they broken out John Howard yet? Repeatedly. Oh, right. Because that shows you that they feel like there's an emergency. If they're wheeling out John Howard, it's all over. It's Labor to win. All right. You've successfully given yourself a sound bite to use either way.

Either way. I think our work is done. It's what Peter Crederlin would do. We're part of the Icona class network and we'll catch you next time. Thank you.