The Chaser Report - Who Will Be One Nation's Prime Minister? | LIVE AND ARTY

Episode Date: May 24, 2026

Charles and Dom join you live in front of an audience at the Soda Factory in Sydney to talk about how Charles was right about everything to do with One Nation. ---Listen AD FREE: https://thechaserreport.supercast.com/ Follow us on Instagram: @chaserwarSpam Dom's socials: @dom_knightSend Charles voicemails: @charlesfirthEmail us: [e-mail] CEO’s Super-yacht upgrade Fund: https://chaser.com.au/support/ Send complaints to: [e-mail] Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Chaser Report is recorded on Gatigal Land. Striving for mediocrity in a world of excellence, this is The Chaser Report. Hello, you're listening to The Chaser Report with Dom and Charles. I'm producer Lachlan, and we just recorded a live special episode of the podcast at the Soda Factory in Surrey Hills. It was a lovely live event that we've been plugging in the pod, sorry, for the last few episodes. are joined by many fans. Thank you very much for coming, everyone. Unfortunately, when we started recording, we pressed the record button about five seconds after explaining what we were doing. So I'm here to do a tiny bit of continuity and fix the episode so everything makes sense and you have context,

dear listener. So now that you have that information, I'm going to throw it straight to Charles and Dom in the studio. But we will do a regular Chase the Report episode just to warm up. Yeah, but also because we realise we've got to put out a fucking Epp tomorrow. Yeah, let's do that.

But before we'll just check the mood of the room. Yes. Who's feeling like talking about Angus Taylor? Round of applause for Angus. This is the very problem we're going to be talking about in this episode. So in keeping with the brand, we do have to talk a little bit about Australian politics,

because today is the day when one very good thing happened and one very, very fascinating thing happened. And the problem is Charles is right. This is the thing that's really upsetting to me. It's good for Charles. I hate it when Charles's predictions are proven correct months later. Is this because it's so boring because it happens so often? Is this why it's so irritating to you?

Yeah, it really is. Because Charles, the most dangerous words, if you listen to the podcast in the podcast is, I've got a theory from Charles. And they're often preposterous, but they're often correct. Now, I haven't told Charles any of this information in detail about what's in the news today.

All I've heard is that I'm correct. He's correct. So I went, oh, yeah, let's do that as a topic. So, all right, quick show of hands. You don't have to say whether you did or not, but how many people in the room voted for the coalition in the last election? What do you mean?

Put up your hands. You don't have to say whether you do. Okay. Who in the room voted for one nation in the last election? Come on. In art gallery in Surrey Hills? Come on. Surely at least half of you did.

All right. People who voted for Labor in the last election is like one person sheepishly raising his hand. I can't remember. Sucked in about your CGT, mate. And then, oh, of course, with Greens. Greens. Oh, we're in the inner cities of Sydney. Oh, yeah.

Bad luck about Adam. What about Teals? Teals. Oh, Teals, we got Teals. There we go. Can I borrow some money? Charles turned up actually saying, I have no money. You've got to buy me drinks to me today.

And then he said, oh, you can put it on the chaser, which I think never works. So, yeah, so if you want to buy Charles a drink, he's got all this sweet Wankanomics money, but it's all in pounds, isn't it? No, it's all in trust funds. Well, we're taxing that. It's now being taxed. So the thing Charles is right about is an amazing article from a couple of days. ago, saying that if an election were held now, the coalition would pretty much close to

cease to exist. They would have number of seats in Queensland, zero. Number of seats in Western Australia. Zero. Hang on. Hang on. Zero. I think that might be the situation already, isn't it?

Well, there's nothing in Transmania. In Western Australia, the lives sort of least only one or two seats. Well, they're sort of, that's not really news. That's just the current state of affairs. Well, the news is that after the next election, if it were held today, they would have, do you don't want to guess how many seats? You don't want to take a quick guess how many seats? This is based on a red bridge pole looking at all the seats in the country.

Six, six, five. Eight is a guess five? Three. Oh, okay. Angus Taylor's relatives are over there. The correct answer is seven. Seven seats nationally. Seven.

seats nationally. That is so many. Nobody gets that many. Across New South Wales, Victoria and the NT. So they'd be like almost a major party. Among those who'd lose their seats, Andrew Hastie would be among the casualties. He hasn't even had a leadership

challenge yet. Oh no. Yeah. Because he's Western Australia. They get none. They get none. And a gentleman by the name of Angus Taylor. Well, yeah, he's gone, isn't it? Good job, Angus. Isn't that the whole reason? Well done. No, isn't the whole problem, and the reason why, because everyone's going,

it doesn't make any sense to tactically shift to the right and just literally be a copy of one nation. I mean, they're shifting to the right out of Parliament. It's what they're shifting. Yeah, because it doesn't make any sense tactically because don't you want to inhabit the centre in Australian politics. But then you look at the actual people who are making the decisions and you go, no, of course it makes sense because it's actually Angus Taylor. He doesn't care about the rest of the liberal body. He cares about his own seat. going, oh, fuck, I've just got a fucking bunch of racists who I've just sort of said, you know,

yes, you should be more racist to in my electorate. Oh, shit, what am I going to do? Why don't I just make the entire Liberal Party racist to save myself in my seat? Well, but the thing is, on these numbers, that hasn't worked. His chance of winning the seat of Hume, according to Redbridge in the next election, is 2%. Andrew Hastie's chances of losing canning to one nation, 100% ladies and gentlemen, according to Redbridge. The Teals keep almost all of their seats.

Labor lose, I think it's about 16 or so. So Labor would have 76 seats. They would be just in majority government on these numbers. And yeah, the Teals would be doing very well. Bob Catter will be unaffected by these numbers. The only thing that's going to get Bob Catter out of the seat of Kennedy is death. And even then, I honestly think he's going to be re-elected. And so One Nation becomes the official opposition.

But that will be hilarious. Like, I think we're sort of, you're missing the big picture, Dom, which is that actually one nation candidates, like, never survive. They always defect. Like, whenever there's a One Nation candidate, they end up either leaving the party. That's true. Or, you know, getting some conviction that means they're not allowed to serve in Parliament anymore. Didn't somebody, no, it wasn't treason, was it?

But there was that guy who, remember the guy? who was elected as a One Nation MP and then he was caught putting nicotine, like pesticide, I think it spelled out bitch or something on the lawn of his partner who had an AVO out against him at the time.

Remember that? Remember that one? Is he, mate? I've got my... Oh, they're zip ties. Yes. To fact check. And yes, it was quite creepy and a bit sinister and a bit sort of weird. Are you suggesting?

Isn't that One Nation don't fit their candidates all that they're only? I'm just saying, imagine, like, so how many seats do they get? They get, like, 55. 53, 53 seats? Okay, so 53 weirdos. That's going to be 50, like, imagine the stories out of that. That's going to be hilarious. 53 stories of people leaving One Nation.

What I'm hearing is a man who's very happy about this change. So, yeah, so 53 seats, Labor's basically just holding on. But, yeah, as you say, this is, they'll be, you. in One Nation on day one, and then they'll realize that they're allowed to just sort of jump off and start their own party. And we'll have 53 people, what is sort of Jackie Lambie network type thing going on? Mind you, I feel like we laughed at, this feels like America 10 or 15 years ago, doesn't that?

We were laughing at all the sort of weird American politicians. And Trump, you know, like, remember Trump was like around in 2012 saying things about Mexicans and we were all going, oh, this is. hilarious. And then suddenly he started running the world. Are you suggesting that Donald Trump's gotten less funny since he took office? Yeah, okay. Yeah.

On the pure metric of what will generate good content. I think that's good for the podcast. We're sitting pretty, is what I'm saying. The amazing thing about it, too, is, I mean, they're not going to win any of the seats in the suburbs. This is the thing that's most interesting about. So one nation is. The projection.

Or the lead. One nation. No, one nation, I mean, of course the Libs aren't going to win any seats in the suburbs. But one nation's whole goal is to win the Western Sydney seats. That's what they're going for. They said this after the by-election, after they picked up Susan Lee's old seat. So how? Well, they're forgetting something about those seats.

Are they going to hold halal barbecues and stuff of that? Turn up to eat and celebrate alongside the community? She's wearing the burqa as an outreach tool. I'm not sure. I mean, this is the thing. they're forgetting, is that they're forgetting that they need to convince people who remember the words swamped by Asians from her maiden speech. Presumably Pauline doesn't remember those words anymore, but I suspect the voters actually

recall. But maybe she was saying the ballot box will be swamped by Asians supporting us. It's entirely possible. But that basically means, based on these numbers, how would they ever win the election? Is this bizarre question. So you're right about your prediction here, Charles. No, I'll do you how it happens like, like, legal. literally next election is that cos Samaras, whoever did the polling, is slightly wrong

and actually Labor falls short by three seats. And then suddenly the Libs go, hey, we've got seven seats. We can be the coalition partner to you. Oh, you think they're going to join the coalition as a minority rump? Well, what? Like, yes, of course you, like, in that situation, you'd be looking up to one nation and going, Hello, Daddy. Didn't you help?

But the problem with this, Charles, is that once again, not only are you right, but Barnaby Joyce has once again been utterly vindicated. Do you think he's the camel that broke the straws back? I think when he was lying down next to that flower bed, he was certainly breaking something's back, possibly his own back.

But no, I mean, he's... We've got a genius. He's a quite well-discised political genius, isn't he, Barnaby Joyce? Well, he was. Like he is. He's such a good... Did anyone see that four-corner?

No, it wasn't four corners. The series that they did about the coalition government after they got unelected. What was it called? Nemesis or something? Nemesis. Fuck, that was a good series. It is actually worth downloading the Ivy app to watch.

And the... This is a man who spent most of his life working for the ABC. Seriously. It won't give you a virus. You can download Ivy. But the thing of... Yeah, but you can't... Anyway.

You got to log in is the problem. Log in is Angus Taylor. See what happened. You got to log in and then it never knows what you've been watching and stuff. It's so shit. Anyway. I'll give that feedback. But Barnaby Joyce was by far the best character in that entire series.

He managed to out charisma as Scott Morrison and Peter Dutney. You're kidding me? But you found yourself agreeing with everything he said because he was sort of, like you didn't necessarily agree with him, but you sort of, God, his perspective and he just, he's so much a better communicating than everyone else. And he go, if he wasn't an alcoholic, he would definitely be prime ministerial material.

Which is what they said about, which is what they said about Bob Hawke. And he goes that alcohol. No, he's serious when he gives that alcohol. See, this is how it starts, Charles. You find yourself going, this part of a be Joyce guy. He's a big reasonable. He's making sense. You're saying all kinds of things.

Then, you know, you have a few drinks with him after ministerial functions. Before you know it, he's left his wife and you're carrying his baby, Charles. You've got to watch out. It's a slippery. The Chaser Report. Less news more often. So I feel like becoming a member of One Nation is a little bit like a bowler, isn't it? Oh, really?

Because it's that thing where you don't... It's pretty rough for Africans. Is that what you meant? Well, yes. But also, like, yeah, you go along thinking it'll be all fine. It's only at the death that you then catch it. Right. Oh, okay.

You know how Ebola's... Let's spend more time on this metaphor. I was going to put the mic down to us. Yeah, no, let's... Oh, it's almost the end of the episode. What are we going to do, Dom? These are the bits we edit out. No, how is One Nation like Ebola?

I really... Because you were going... No, what you're saying. It's like a frog in boiling water. Like, you start going, oh, Barnaby Joyce starts to make sense. And then before you know it, you've caught One Nation and you're voting for them. You know what I mean?

I mean, the thing about One Nation that has been pointed out, and we'll talk to Jennifer shortly about UK politics, our special guest who joined us shortly. But one of my friends shared this video before of reform councillors. You know how in the UK all the reform councillors have just been elected? And this is why Sekeir Stama's in terrible trouble. I think he was in trouble when people started referring to him as Sir Keir Stahmer as well, rather than just here.

But there are all these reform councillors who've been, and this is doing the rounds, who've been going to their first council meeting and saying, I don't know what the constitution is, I don't know what I'm voting for, and you're tricking us. So if you trick us so we vote something that we don't want to vote for, it's your fault.

And basically, they don't understand how a council works. The thing they've been elected to, they don't get. So the point is that if you get a bunch of randos and people who send weird messages to their exes using fertilizer, you're going to get a very strange out. come is the point. If you get all these, so one nation might win a whole lot of seats, but will they hold them for more than one term, is the question. Yes, because it'll be so entertaining. People won't be able to look away. But also, no, no, but with the reform

thing, with the reform thing, no, because the best thing about the reform thing was, I heard this interview where, we should find the video, it's pretty exciting. It's so good, where this counsellor, he's just been elected, and they go, anyway, so how do you feel about getting elected? to this council position, you know, it's a lot of work, you're not going to be paid. And he was, what? I'm not going to be paid. And he goes, oh, fuck this. And just walks off, halfway through the interview.

It's like becoming a podcaster. Anyway, hang on, what I want to get before the end of the episode is you were right. So Charles quite a while ago said that, I mean, he first said that One Nation would never get anywhere and that Barnaby Joyce was going to switch to Reform Australia. And I was kind of going, wouldn't it just be one nation? So that was, I was right about that one. But nevertheless, you were right about them becoming the opposition. If this poll was correct.

I called that, like, literally in about October last year, because there was a meeting. I don't know whether people remember I was talking about this, but there was a meeting between Barnaby Joyce, Gina Reinhardt, a plan to box, Nigel Farage. Oh, yeah, Farage. John, Donald Trump. was there. There's a couple of other billionaires.

Did this actually happen? This was at Mar-a-Lago, yeah. Did Bar-Lago? No, this happened. I remember what it happened, because it happened, and he came home, and then I talked about it on the podcast, and then about a week later, he defected to One Nation, and it was like, I told you there was something.

But the thing that I'd predicted was that Barnaby was about to set up his own party, not join One Nation. Yeah, that was the mistake. And that's the point where, because they've re-naded, it's not Pauline Hanson's One Nation anymore. Yeah. It's just one nation. They're going to be so pissed off, aren't they, when someone tells them that they've named their party after a Keating policy from 1993.

That's going to be very embarrassing. But I think the other thing to remember is, like, all the messaging is being sharpened so brilliantly. Like, it is directly coming out of Nigel Farage and the Reform Party in the UK. And it is chillingly good. Are you saying that ideas from overseas are coming in into terms? making the jobs of Australian ideas. Because my sons have TikTok accounts where One Nation pops up all the time. And their videos are brilliant.

They work. They're good videos. They're good political communication. And that is not Paul and Hansen. That is proper well-funded messaging. They've gotten a lot of taxpayers' money after recent elections because of the way that the funding laws work. They've been, you know, we've all been paying for those videos.

Also, Gina Reinhart, giving like a $2 million jet doesn't hurt as well. Do you know, just very quietly, just in the room and on the podcast feed, I discovered that a guy I went to school with gave them like a million dollars. It's going to be an interesting conversation at the reunion. Oh, yes. I'm suggesting we have the reunion at Gina Reinhart's place and he can fly some whatever. Get on board. So Charles, the final question, what's the next prediction? So you got that one right.

So my next prediction is. prediction. Are they going to win office? Who will be the prime minister? Just point, Paul Hanson may not understand, by the way, that as a senator, and I mean this in the nicest possible way, that as a senator, she doesn't actually get to be prime minister if they win the election. I think she's aware of that? No, she'll know that. No, my prediction is there'll be some knife fights within One Nation after the next. What? Internal disunity in One Nation? Yeah, because it'll be about Barnaby wanting to be leader. It'll be about, and because he... I mean, when's he tried to Charles the leader of the party,

except for every single time he's ever been in a party? You've got to remember that Barnaby is all about the money because he's got a huge amount of alimony and he needs it to pay all the... No, he's been very upfront about this. That's true. That's not a joke. That's true. It's his financial reality.

Yeah, yeah. Yeah, and you get paid more. You get a loading for being a leader. Get a huge loading. Yeah. So I think, I think that's the thing. But it won't happen until after the next election. Right.

So, and then that will. And it'll be, I think the thing that people forget about Australia is because of compulsory preferential voting at a federal level, it will be less spectacular than everyone's hoping. I mean, I'm hoping for, I mean, I hate it all, but also you sort of love it when it's dramatic. I remember talking before the US, the last US election in terms of which would be the most interesting outcome, which I talked to jazz about this as well. on radio. What's the best outcome in terms of policy? What's the best outcome in terms of, you know, ratings and narrative? And it was like, well, Donald, it would be fascinating to see Donald Trump come back.

Didn't quite think he managed to crash the entire world economy. Yeah, yeah. But, I mean, what's paying more for petrol and everything versus the sheer entertainment value of the Irish rate? Of the Iranian propaganda, I think we all agree that that's been one of the great entertainment pieces of 2026? Is it possible that Gina Ryan Hart's funding that as well? I'll show how that word.

All right. So the next prime minister, the one nation prime minister is Barnaby Joyce? Yes. And it will be Barnaby Joyce, and it'll be up against who will be leading the Labor Party by then? Because the elbow's clearly going to get in the neck. Well, I think we can agree after the past week.

Probably not Jim Chalmers. Dr. Chalmers is a bit of trouble. Yeah. What do we think? Who's the Labor leader? They all think it's them. I think it'll be Andrew Hasty. Andrew Hasty.

Angus Taylor, hey, guys. I don't know. I don't have a good prediction. You put me on the... My predictions come from deep research. What they come from is deep drinking. Can we get some more drinks for child? I mean, the person who should be the Labour leader, the only popular one of them, as far as I can tell, is Penny Wong.

No, yeah. I think there's a few people who oppose genocide. Yeah, a little bit of post-opt-October 7 brand damage, which is true. All right, well, you heard it here first. Barnaby Joyce Barnaby Joyce will be the next prime minister Oh yes Barnaby Joyce will be the next Prime Minister

Oh yes that's who will oppose him The opposition leader will be the planter box The only thing that's managed to stop him In years I love it And possibly better messaging than Labour Okay well we're part of the alcoholic class network We'll catch for tomorrow

For joining us and so you won't hear with us in the Soda Factory All right thank you very much There you go Thank you Thank you.