The Chris Cuomo Project - Allan Lichtman Makes His Midterm Prediction

Episode Date: October 8, 2026

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial [phone] to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to http://askchapter.org/cuomo *Paid Partnership* Allan Lichtman (historian, political scientist, and author of “Great American Presidents”) joins Chris Cuomo to explain why he expects Democrats to win both the House and Senate in the midterms and what history suggests about the political backlash against Donald Trump. Lichtman also discusses who could emerge in 2028, why Democrats should stop relying on safe establishment candidates, his surprising assessment of Barack Obama’s presidency, and whether his famous Keys to the White House need to change after getting the 2024 election wrong. Join The Chris Cuomo Project on YouTube for ad-free episodes, early releases, exclusive access to Chris, and more: https://www.youtube.com/@chriscuomo/join Follow and subscribe to The Chris Cuomo Project on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and YouTube for new episodes every Tuesday and Thursday: https://linktr.ee/cuomoproject See if you're overpaying for car insurance with Jerry: https://pnl.link/f1eJy80 Download the Polymarket App to track the midterms. Deposit $10 get $25 with code "CUOMO": https://app.polymarket.us/S8ac/CUOMO Head to https://cozyearth.com and use code CHRIS for an exclusive 20% off on home and sleepwear! NOBL gives you real travel peace of mind — security, design, and convenience all in one. Head to https://NOBLTravel.com for 46% off your entire order! #NOBL #adHead to https://superpower.com/cuomo for $50 off your membership. Get 150+ biomarkers tested, a personalized health plan and on-demand care team. Detect early signs of 1,000+ conditions. #superpowerpod *Chapter: Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options.If the video references historical savings: *Average potential savings are based on realized premium, co-pay, and out of pocket savings estimates self-reported by consumers that worked with Chapter Advisory LLC to enroll in a Medicare Supplement, Medicare Advantage, and/or Part D Prescription Drug Plan. The average is limited to consumers that chose to self-report. Savings information is subject to periodic updates and corrections. There is no guarantee of savings and any savings may vary by policy type, state, or other factors. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Who's going to win the midterms? How do we know? What does that mean, actually, about the House versus the Senate? And what are the variables? What does history show us? But what do we have to adjust for in this crazy time that we're living in? And by the way, once you start getting into it, how do we know who's been a great leader? Well, there's a new book out that gives you a new way to look at it that plays right into every question I just asked.

And I have the man with the answers. Chris Cuomo here. Welcome to the Chris Cuomo Project. Thank you for subscribing and following. Alan Lickman. Oh, he was wrong about Harris v. Trump. Yep. And now he knows why. And he just wrote a book that is selling like hot capes that has a separate set of keys he uses that you can use too to figure out which presidents have actually been worthy of the title of greatness, which is very cool and interesting to me as a critical thinker. So I wanted to sit down with the professor, find out about his book, find out about whether or not he agrees with the idea that the Democrats are going to win in the midterms and what we see in the poly markets about where people are putting, whether they're putting their money and it matches where their mouths are. And what are we to make about the early understandings of the upcoming presidency? Who better than the professor? Let's get after it. I'm letting you in on the middle of this conversation that I've been having.

having with Alan Lickman, who, as you know, is a mentor and a friend to me. That's why I'm such a zealous defender of him because I know his political philosophy and his tools make sense. And it's such a better alternative to this kind of specious kind of feel-scape that we're in. But, but Lickman just dropped a bomb on me that is even a bigger headline that his best-selling book ranking the presidents. And there's something very controversial. Now, or someone very, very controversial, not included. We'll get to all of that. But, Lickman, did you just tell me that you are a senior Olympics competitor and that your wife is also, and there's a huge question I have to ask, but first, tell people what you just told me about what you do when you're not doing this.

Yes. I am a long time runner. I was at one point many, many years ago, north of American steeplechase champion in the Submasters Division. You know, the race made for horses but run by people where you've got to jump over barriers and water. And in my ancient situation, I am a senior Olympian. Next year, I am going to the National Senior Olympics in the 1500 meter run and the 800 meter run. And my wife is even about. better athlete.

So you'll, in power lifting. Power lifting a silver medal. And hold on, let me just ask you this. And be honest, because I'll tell you, if you don't tell me the truth, I will go right to her, okay? I will get to her and I will get it out. And I will come for you. Who's stronger?

Oh, there's no question. I don't even try to compete with her. I'm five foot six. She's six feet tall, sheer muscle. She is also an Ironman triathlet that is a 2.4 mile swim, a 112 mile bike, and a 26.4 mile run. I don't compete with my wife. So your wife is half a foot taller than you. Correct.

And stronger. Correct. Now, what's always more of a Renaissance man? Yeah, you're faster because you've got to run for your life. Exactly. All right. So anyway, that is a beautiful bit of trivia about Lickman. But here's now one more reason that I love him.

But here's why I really wanted to re-engage with Alan. On his own timetable, by the way, because I would add him on all the time, okay? I'm a busy guy. And rightly so. I want to talk to you about the book that is selling like bonkers. And it's great and kind of controversial, which is great. Great American presidents. And I love what they did with the cover because he kind of made it look like a government report.

Smart, savvy. So you use a different set of keys. These are not the presidential keys. No. These are his own that he came up with. And the basic gist of it for the uninitiated is he looks at relevancy and policy change over time versus popularity in the moment. Why? And versus my own political preferences, which have nothing to do with this.

Why? Why is that more important as a measure of a great president? popularity changes. It's ephemeral. It ebbs and flows over time. Harry Truman was one of the least popular presidents of all time. He had approval ratings when he left the White House under 30%. I am not swayed by that. I am looking at consequences. A great American president is a president who has significant, consequences for the course of American history and whose accomplishments still reverberate today. And it doesn't mean they're perfect, doesn't mean they're pure. Even great American presidents do some pretty awful things. But you've got to balance their entire administration. And I have my 10 keys, nothing like my keys to the White House, entirely different. These are retrospective analyses of presidents, and they enable anyone who buys my book to become their own evaluator

of presidents using my 10 keys. There's a lot of judgment involved. This is history. This is human beings. And one of the great things about this book, it's a fabulous teaching tool, because in debating the various presidents, you can make your own judgments, but you have to kind of go over all of American history. I just got a email from a teacher out in California who teaches advanced placement history, and they're using my book, and I agreed to come on for Zoom and help their students understand it. It's a great teaching tool or a do-it-yourself evaluator for anyone. You don't have to accept my judgments. You can make your own. Why do these keys? So the reason that your keys when picking presidents matters

so much is because they've been right. This is totally subjective, though, as you're saying, it's different. It doesn't take things that actually happened as the presidential keys do and putting them into a kind of an algorithm. Here, these are your own judgment. So what makes these keys better than anybody else's? Well, what makes them better, and, you know, I'm not, you know, criticizing anyone else. I don't think anyone else has come up with such an explicit, historically relevant set of keys that can take you from George Washington to the present. The other thing, you know, I have been studying American politics, Chris, for over 60 years. And these keys are based on a very careful evaluation of the history of the American presidency and American political history

for over 200 years. So they're not entirely subjective. They're judgments and they're They are, I believe, very well-informed judgments. But again, I welcome everyone else's judgments. And it's the wonderful tool for understanding, debating, and discussing our history. What was the philosophical and practical framework for coming up with the keys? Yeah. The framework was, I have been studying presidents for a very long time. And I have been actually disturbed about the modern presidency.

I've wondered why we don't have presidents of the stature anymore of Lincoln or Teddy Roosevelt or Franklin Roosevelt. So I wanted to come up with a model that not only helps us understand history, but helps us understand the predicament we're in at present and how we can see the light after that. One of the things I discovered here was a number of great presidents followed some very failed presidents and some very dark moments in our history. Abraham Lincoln followed the failed presidency of James Buchanan, which contributed to the Dred Scott decision declaring slaves' property, didn't do anything to stop the coming of the Civil War. Then you had Abraham Lincoln. Franklin Roosevelt followed the failed presidency of Herbert Hoover.

You know, when Franklin Roosevelt took office in 1933, it was the bottom of the Great Depression. People were worried about the very survival of our society and our economy. So I wanted to tell people that there is a path. You know, you should not despair that there are models for greatness and they can follow some of the darkest moments in our history. Now, one of the reasons is this gives me a chance. chance to kind of cheat into a frame of analysis I want critical thinkers to have, which is. And I know this is tough for students, but it shouldn't be for adults, okay? And here's why. It is boring and tedious to learn about times that you didn't live in when you're younger,

when you're younger. And I get that frustration. I live that frustration. However, you don't want to get duped. And this is a question I have for Alan also in a different context about why he thinks the modern presidency is so different, because there's a pushback that is, well, it's always been this kind of cycle of disputation within this bipartisan framework, which we've had almost since the beginning, even though everybody warned us against it in terms of parties, but that this is the way it's always been. There's just new tools and technologies to motivate and amplify and magnify this dynamic. But within that kind of... context is another context, a subcontext, which is what? Gilded age, into depression, and then

coming out of it with FDR. Remember, a lot of people just think of FDR about World War II and him and Churchill and it. But the New Deal was before, and it was coming out of the Gilded Age. I could make a very competent argument, and many people are making it. That's where we are now, that we are coming out of an economy that has been engineered and a government system that has been engineered to concentrate wealth and alienate labor in a way that is reminiscent of back then, not as bad as back then, thank God. We still have kids working back then. But that's why you study your history. Because what we're hearing now in the renewed fascism versus communism, both of which I think are exaggerated, though I think the communism part is exaggerated a lot more than the fascism part.

Trump is going out of his way to be framed accurately as an autocrat. I mean, just with what he's doing with ICE alone and how he's ignoring the checks and balances. But that's something that you can refine on your own. But this gives us this context. Who do you think the biggest surprise for people will be in your estimation about who's on the list and in their position? Who do you think we'll be like, wow, I wonder why he thought that? I think the biggest surprise is James K. Pulk. He's the only president.

The one thing everybody knows about him. You know, when he was nominated, they, first time they telegraphed the nomination to Washington. And those who received it said, oh, this must be a glitch of the system. James K. Polk couldn't possibly be the presidential nominee. The first real dark horse nominee. a one-term president, except for Kennedy, of course, who was assassinated, he's the only one-term president on our list. He was a racist. He was an imperialist. You know, there's a lot I don't like about James K. Paul, but he had enormous consequences for the country in his one term. He settled

the Northwest boundary dispute with Great Britain, which gave us the states of Oregon and Washington. nation without those two states. Then he fought this awful racist war on pretext. And by the way, you know who the biggest critic of the Mexican war was Abraham Lincoln, a one-term congressman from Illinois. Well, he fought this war, and they had this treaty, which essentially gave us California and so much of states like Utah, Nevada, New Mexico, Arizona. It gave us California and the American Southwest. He basically doubled the size of the nation and shaped the contours of the nation as it is today.

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And you go right back to your life. So today is your day to call and look and be a critical thinker before it's too late. Call 628-28-287-0-9-79. Don't let this decision get made for you. So this speaks to your, this isn't about the nicest guy. This isn't about the best guy. This isn't about the most moral or popular guy. It's about impact, which I think is very interesting and distinguishable.

Now, to what I think is the most controversial part, So Alan cuts this off at like Reagan, okay, because he believes that post Reagan, the game changed about what a president has to be about and what a presidency is about. But that means that he leaves out Barack Obama, who is the first minority member of the presidency. And how can he not be, in terms of impact, whether you like them or not, how did that not fundamentally change the country? I wish it did. I wish the election of a black president had fundamentally changed the country. Unfortunately, it did not. First of all, I'm a great admirer of Barack Obama. If I were just to include my own political preferences, he'd be right up there. But two big problems. One, while he was important for some critical policies, he also failed on one. He also failed on one of of my very important keys, the political key. He was terrible when it came to advancing the interest of his own party. The Democrats had disastrous losses in the midterm elections of 2010, which led to all of that gerrymandering by swing districts like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin

that have tainted our politics ever since then. But why couldn't you argue that that was done to him and not by him. And it was an outgrowth of prejudice and white fright that was marshaled and motivated, as malignantly in my opinion, despite what his best efforts were. Yeah. But if you were to say that, you also have to take into account the big midterm losses in 2014. When he wasn't on the ballot, his party took tremendous beatings. And of course, he did not pass on the presidency to a member of his own party. But the second big thing is, and this makes me so sad, come on, has racism been abolished or even diminished post-Obama? I would say racism is more prevalent in our politics today.

Well, maybe that's because we brought it out into the open. Barack Obama. Maybe now it's not all sort of vote. And, you know, now we just talk about it in a way. And yes, some people say it's overapplied. I actually almost never agree with that, by the way, because I do believe that every time somebody wants to say, oh, here we go again with playing the race court, I think that what we're forgetting is that this society somewhat especially, I wouldn't say uniquely because it happens in other societies, but it happens here all the time, which is we don't have any common tissue except our constitution and our laws. I mean, that's really our religion. But other than that, you've got a lot of different people fighting for air in this place.

And I do believe that the isms matter here. And racism is one of them. Let me give you another broad historical perspective for my scholarship. I've said this many times. You know, remember the tale of two cities, the best of times and the worst of times. Well, there was the best of America and the worst of America. Two strains have run throughout our history. One strain is open and tolerant and non-racist, non-misogynist, welcomes all different kinds of people, as you say, under our very sound constitutional framework.

But there is also the darker side of American history, which is exclusive, which believes, you know, there is this exclusive white Protestant culture. You know, I remember that wonderful film, The Good Shepherd, when this patrician CIA guide has said, you know, the black people have their music, the Jews have their scholarship. But what do you white Protestants have? And the answer was, we have the United States of America. And all the rest of you are only visitors. You know, go back to 1798. That was the first xenophobic laws, the alien and sedentious. Act. So it's not surprising that even today, we still have these two forces in American history contending against one another. At times, one of the forces is dominant at times other, you know, is dominant. And so it's not surprising what we see today. Who is the number one on your list? I don't have a number one. Yeah, I know. That's why I'm asking. See, this is what he does. This is what Lickman does, okay?

Lickman makes sure that he's not going to be wrong if he doesn't absolutely have to be. So he does this book, The Great American Presidents. Of course you want to know who number one is, right? But he doesn't give it to you. He makes you have to decide who number one is. And that's what he did. But you know what? When I read it, I was like, ah.

And that's why I was like, I'm coming at him about this. That's before I knew his wife was an Olympian Powerlifter. So now I'm going to do it a different way. Yeah, I'm just asking now as opposed to accusing him. Why don't you have a number one? I don't have a number one because, as you say, I'm laying out the framework. I'm laying out the presidents that I think are most influential. And I leave it to the readers to choose among them.

But if you want my personal preference, because you're such a good friend, I will give it to you. The three generally ranked greatest presidents, no surprise, Washington, Lincoln, and Franklin Roosevelt. So who do I pick among the three? And I'm going to surprise you a little bit. I pick Franklin Roosevelt. And here's why. He led us through two of the greatest existential crises that our nation has ever faced. As you say, before World War II, he led us through the Great Depression, not just through the New Deal. We're still living the legacy of the New Deal, right? Social security. You mentioned child labor laws, minimum wages, maximum hours, insurance of government, of federal government insurance, bank deposits, the Securities and Exchange Commission,

rural electrification. But more than that, he gave Americans hope that we could get out of this. We have nothing to fear but fear itself. And then he led us through the most destructive war in the history of the world. World War II. And it wasn't easy exercising leadership first for the Len Lees program that probably saved Europe from being conquered by Hitler. He had a fight, a tremendous amount of isolationism in America that didn't want us even to save Great Britain.

And you know who was led by the second most famous person in America after Franklin Roosevelt, lucky Lindy, America's hero, Charles Lindberg. So no other president has led us through two of the most existential crises that America has ever faced. But, you know, you can make your own judgments. You might want to pick Lincoln. You might want to pick Washington. And there'd be reasons for it. Support for the Chris Cuomo project comes from superpower.

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You won't be sorry. I think that one of the interesting things, that I have returned to about the Roosevelt's, and yes, they were related, is that Teddy is my favorite president, by the way. I'm a big fan of Teddy's, too. I think that's mostly a personal projection of him as a grinder and what he termed as noblese oblige, which is what his father taught him, which was the obligation of privilege. Correct.

And I think that we misunderstand privilege in our society right now is that. It is an abject negative, full stop. And I think that we are missing an opportunity in what every society has counted on, which is that the people who do well, the people who have, the people who matter more within a system are more responsible and have more duty placed on them because of it. Now we're just demonizing, but that means you're not harnessing and you're creating, you're exacerbating a division. So he gives us the man in the arena. Yeah. Roosevelt gives us, among other things, FDR, gives us nothing to fear, dot, dot, dot.

Both of those statements were the first part of a larger message in both cases, which was, and these people in the chattering class need to shut up and do something. Big problem for Teddy? Big problem for FDR, nothing to fear but fear itself. And then what was the answer to that notion, that premise was, and all of this fear mongering and these people who are trying to divide us and saying it's over and that you got to go with this. And these other little agendas have to die in favor of the whole. And I believe we are there again now. That the stratification is about suffocating.

It's about at suffocation level. And we have to realize that and we need messengers, leaders to challenge. to challenge it and win by saying, no, I will not play into the fear and the disconnect, the xenophobia, the Islamophobia in its manifestation today. I will remind of the bonds. So both of those messages were incredibly powerful because of what they were against, which we are living right now. Yeah, let me make a few comments about that.

FDR was viciously attacked in his own time. He was called a communist. He was called a fascist. And he was the subject of vicious anti-Semitic attacks, focused on his Jewish advisor, Felix Frankfurter, you know, Frankfurter and his hot dog boys. Of course, later became a Supreme Court. Supreme Court justice.

And a very, very savvy one. Continue. Yes. And FDR was accused of being a judge. you. They said, your real name is not Roosevelt. It's Rosenberg. You know what he said? This is one of the great statements that nobody knows about. He said, you know, I don't really know what religion my ancestors had way back then. But what is important is that they were good people. That's what matters, not the labels you attach to them. And that was incredibly important. Now, Theodore Roosevelt, I admire Theodore greatly, too, one of my favorites.

And one of the things he said, though, was, you know, I'm not quite a great president because I never had a great crisis to lead the nation through like Abraham Lincoln did in the Civil War. Finally, I want to comment about, you know, the linkage between the Gilden Age and today. FDR's reforms greatly diminished inequality in America. America. That's all been wiped out recently. Inequality today, believe it or not, is about as bad as it was in 1929 at the eve of the Great Depression. And if there is one critical thing that defines the health of democracy, it is equality. You cannot have us in them. And look, this is a timeless struggle. And I will remind people, the initial manifestation of it in America, America, America,

meaning us as a contiguous set of then 13 states, was when they went to the states to get the Constitution, okay, approved, the initial pushback everywhere, which led to the need for the Federalist Papers and the advocacy was, who are these aristocrat motherfuckers thinking that they're going to come at us and create their own system? I'm very suspicious of these guys. You know, I'm very suspicious to these landholders and slaveholders,

and they're just putting together this system for them. It's sneaky. it was present then. They didn't look at the founding fathers as these great guys. They saw them as a cabal who may be trying to get over on the rest of us. Even then that was the tension. 100% right. And it was a great struggle to get the Constitution approved.

And it required various compromises. They wanted to get the small states in. So what did they do for the small states? They gave every one of them two senators and at least three. votes in the electoral college no matter what the population might be. The other big conflict, of course, was between slave and free states. And you had to get both on board. And that led to perhaps the most notorious element of the U.S. Constitution. The dirty compromise. The dirty three-fifths compromise that slaves for apportionment would count as three-fifths of a free person. But you got to

make compromise. See, this is what we've lost. Right. Exactly. Right now, it's enough in politics for me to demonize Lickman. It's enough. Listen, I know you may, everything may not be perfect. This is what Kevin Hassett's saying right now, by the way, which is I don't believe these negative reports in the economy because these people, you know, they hate the country. They're just pessimists. But, you know, we're killing it. And if you say, if you think that it's going to be better with them, they are the scariest people in the world.

That is enough now. It was not enough in the moments of great crisis. And it does remind of the ancient wisdom that good people make hard, weak. So it's hard times make strong people, okay? Strong people make good times. Good times make weak people. Yes. We're going through a period now of weak people.

And what does weak mean? Trump is a weak person. What does that mean? He's not about anything but his own self-interest. And he will mortgage and leverage anything in favor of his own interest. That has never been a hallmark of greatness of any leader in our country. And that's why things are getting worse in this country and more stratified. And you do have to ask, well, then what comes next?

And history suggests a real populist and systemic reformation, not MAGA, the reaction to MAGA. Right. I've been arguing for a very long time that the media has fallen into Trump's trap of thinking that he is a populist. Look, the populist, I mean, give you some historical perspective. The populist movement was a movement of ordinary farmers, joined by some ordinary workers in the late 19th century, precisely against the depredations of the big corporations. They were for things like the progressive income tax ahead of their time, regulation of the railroads. and the communications companies, postal savings banks for ordinary persons. Trump is exactly the opposite of that. He is the champion of the big corporations and the wealthy.

Just look at his one singular piece of legislation, passed twice, his only singular legislation, the big tax and spending bill that achieved enormous tax breaks for the big corporations and the wealthy. and in its latest incarnation actually strikes down on our most vulnerable by threatening Medicare, Medicaid, and food stamps. So we really need, as you say, to get a real populace whose policies, not rhetoric, is in the interests of ordinary Americans.

That's what the New Deal was all about. Franklin Roosevelt, you're right, was a patrician. But things like Social Security and minimum wages, they didn't help the rich. they helped ordinary Americans, and they cut down on the inequality that was so evident in the Gilded Age in the 1920s. We have a voracious appetite right now on both sides for disruptors from people outside the establishment. But that doesn't mean that you have to be unsophisticated, uneducated, and unsuccessful to get in there.

And I do wonder, that's what Teddy Roosevelt was. He and FDR were both called what? Traders, class traders. Traders to the class, yes. They were against their own, right? Okay, and both of them reveled in that. Certainly Teddy did. Teddy loved it.

So did FDR. Be that as it may. So now, do we need a corny that we see in Canada? A sophisticated guy who hasn't been in government, but he ran the international bank. He knows economics. He knows this. He looks at the system. with skepticism, if not just a touch of cynicism.

It's like, this can definitely be done better if you're not worried about only impressing the people inside the system. Do we need somebody like that or is there too much anti-elitism now? And I find it hard to believe that a Republican could win in 2028. But if one or if a Democrat does, does that Democrat have to be from the streets kind of populist? doesn't have to be from the streets. You made a very important point. Some of our greatest presidents who have operated in the interests of ordinary people were born to the Silver Spoon.

We're patricians. You know, Teddy Roosevelt, Franklin Roosevelt, John F. Kennedy are all examples of that. And we've had presidents who, you know, grew up in more humble circumstances who do not fit my definition of great presidents, like, for example, Richard Nixon, who was not born of privilege, but violated his sacred oath of office as president. 100%. So now we have the midterms upon us. Yes, we do. The keys, Alan's 13 keys, are for the presidency. They do not adapt to the midterms, though they are inclusive of the midterms as part of the key system. So when I'm asking him about the midterms, terms, it's not algorithmic. It's about his, you know, his feeling based on being a political

scientist and a critical thinking citizen. So the midterms, do you go with the flow right now, which is all indications are that the administration, MAGA, will have to be punished in the midterms based on history and the nation's status quo and the polling, that the Democrats take the House. Do you believe that? Yes. And let me, it's not a short answer. if that's okay. Yeah, we're on a podcast here. Yeah. So let's look at history.

Midterm elections are usually disasters for the party holding the White House. Since the Civil War, the modern Republican versus Democratic political system, the party holding the White House has only won a midterm three times under some very special circumstances. 1934, FDR, the New Deal, the revulsion against the Hoover administration. 1998. Bill Clinton, 66% approval. A lot of angst about this impeachment controversy.

And then 2002, with the nation rallying around Bush and 9-11. So very few examples. And typically, since World War II, if you're looking at averages, the party holding the House has lost about 25 house seats. And when the presidential approval rating is below 40%, it balloons to 40 house seats. So history is very strongly against the Republicans holding the House. But let me take, you know, by history and by Trump's approval rating, the polls also support that. You know, I'm not much of a poll watcher or a poll predictor. But there were two, several important things about the polls. One, if you look at the 2025 off-year elections for

governor and a few others, Virginia and New Jersey, the Democrats well outperform the polls. They have outperformed the polls sometimes by double digits in the special elections in 2025 and 2024. That doesn't bode well for the Republicans, no matter what the polls say. Secondly, if you look more deeply into the polls, what's really important for low turnout, midterm elections is enthusiasm. And often Republicans in the era of Trump have led Democrats in enthusiasm. That's not true this time. Democrats seem to be more motivated than are Republicans in this particular cycle.

Finally, what is more important than some of the individual polls is what's called the generic congressional poll. Do you prefer generically to vote for a Democrat over Republican? That's been pretty, pretty predictive, and it very heavily favors Democrats right now. So for all those reasons, I do think Democrats will take back the House. Now, you do have the X factor, right, which we just lived through in the presidency, the X factors of who was using social media and how. the X factor of how the Democrats screwed their own process and what that meant and what wound up resonating in the election and what didn't, which was, of course, multifactorial. So we are in strange and unprecedented times.

And I know people always like to say that. Every election is the most important. This is the most important election ever, right? We have a better chance than any election I have ever covered of Trump's. administration fucking with voting in the midterms. And we know he's trying to. And I know MAGA people will send comments to me right now, and they'll say two things. One, don't call me MAGA.

I'm just a Republican. I'm not giving it to you. Until you reject what this administration is fundamentally about in terms of its harshness, it's disrespect for the law in our institutions, I'm not giving it to you. I'm not blaming you for who you vote for. I don't play that game. But you're MAGA. okay, you're MAGA until you reject what is malignant about this. And if you don't want

or you don't have to. But that's my decision. Second, they're going to say, well, wait a minute, he's making voting more safe so we don't have fake voting. We don't have fake voting. We don't have the problem at scale. We don't have it. Oh, but if everybody shows an ID, it has to be better. On one level, sure, but you are making a gross assumption, which is, Everyone has an ID and we'll get one. And you say, well, if they don't, then it's on them. But that's why voting never acquired one. So this man is motivated personally and his administration is motivated collectively

to do something about the midterms to avoid a beating. I've never dealt with that before this overtly and frankly perniciously, wickedly. I'm very worried about that. Yes, we have never quite seen it. I've been an expert witness in over 110 voting rights and civil rights cases. I've studied extensively vote of fraud, which is essentially non-existent in America. This idea of non-citizens voting, a non-citizen is more likely to be struck by lightning than to vote in an election.

And the tiny, tiny percentage of those who vote, they made mistakes. They think they're not doing anything nefarious. They're not part of a ring to rig our elections. So this, like Donald Trump's claim that the 2020 election was stolen from him, is a fabrication. It's a myth. It does not exist.

But it's an excuse. And we've heard throughout history, people have cited voter fraud as an excuse for resisting, restricting voting. Women are susceptible to fraud. African Americans can be bought off, so we have to restrict voting against women and African Americans. We've heard this throughout our history, and it's more bogus, as bogus as ever as it is today. Now, you know, the Supreme Court, for the most part, has been very differential to Trump. But one area, they've not been willing to drum into is elections that are not tied to race.

They did not countenance any of Trump's attempts to overturn the 2020 election. They struck down his totally bogus, nefarious attempts to destroy mail-in voting. So I don't think he is going to get the acquisition, the acquiescence of the Supreme Court and what he's going to do. Plus, people are voting already and voting in large numbers. And there's not much he's going to do about it. The only thing that he could do is to try to restrict voting at the polls. But that could backfire because Democrats tend to vote by mail and vote early. And Republicans tend to vote at the polls. So if he's going to disrupt voting at the polls, that could backfire against his own party. Unless, of course, you know, he just goes after black precincts. He always blames, you know, black areas or minority areas. is for fraud. So I'm worried, but I'm not, you know, totally worried about this. Yeah, but I mean, there is more cause for anxiety than I've had in any other election. Ever. I've covered. And it's not, you know, people will say, oh, that's because you hate Trump, please.

Don't, don't go middle school on me. Don't cheapen the criticism by making it personal. And by the way, there shouldn't be anything wrong with personally being offended by the kinds of injustice that this president plays with on a regular basis. But it is not about him. You don't hear me saying Trump is fat, the orange man. I don't, I don't play that game. I don't need it very, very rarely and selectively. This is about what he does. I don't want to cheapen the criticism because what he's doing is much more frightening to me than his hair. Now, in terms of the betting markets, the, I like the polymarket guys. Can I say something about that before you go on. Please, please. Give you a little historical perspective. You know, people say, oh, Republicans,

go along with Trump invariably because they're afraid of him. There's a small truth to that, but there's a much bigger truth. It's the truth I wrote about it in my previous book, conservative at the core, a new history of American conservatism. Republicans go along with him because they agree with him. You know, there's this notion that Trump has hijacked conservatism. Nonsense. 90% of conservative-affiliated voters voted for Trump in 2024.

A record, even beat the icon Ronald Reagan. Virtually every conservative officeholder lines up behind him. Both Trump and today's Republican Party, as I explain at length in my book, conservative at the core, are the culmination, not the contradiction of 100 years of American conservative history. And if you don't understand that, you don't understand why. the Republicans and Trump are so monolithic. And, you know, I would argue that right now, I'm surprised he didn't change the name of the party.

Because there is no GOP. It is, I have never seen a party as controlled by this one. There is no dissent. And yeah, if you leave, there can be dissent. If you want to lose, there can be dissent. But otherwise, it's all MAGA. I'm surprised he didn't rename the party. So, Polly Market, I like the idea of in this,

fickle, casual, nonchalant, unstudied social media environment where people just, I feel, I feel, I like polymarket because you put in your money where your mouth is. And I think there's something interesting about that. So, and some of the things I get and some of the things I don't get. So the first one I want to do is the midterms. Okay. They say the balance of power. Now, they are at Democrats sweep. 63 cents on every dollar spent are going that they sweep. And I saw that. I got to tell you, I don't understand the enthusiasm for that based on the Senate and the understanding of the gerrymandered seats and how many seats the Democrats would have to win. I don't even know that I'd put 63 cents on them way out of a dollar on them winning the House. I mean, I think it's more likely than not. I mean, it's more likely than not, okay? But I don't know that I'd put my money where my mouth is on betting on them to win because they got to turn some seats. You know, and turning seats is hard. We have a 95 plus percent retention rate in most areas.

So what do you think of the idea that it's 63 percent of the money is that they win House and Senate? That doesn't surprise me. I think they will win both the House and the Senate for all the reasons I've laid out. I have no problem with these prediction markets on predicting unknown outcomes, where I do have. a big problem with predicting markets is predicting things where inside information gives you a huge advantage. You know, supposedly we have laws against insider trading on stocks. They're not very effective, but at least there are laws.

I don't believe there are any laws restricting the use of inside information to manipulate these prediction markets. And that is what bothers me about the prediction markets, not the prediction of unknown political outcomes. And I don't entirely disagree with the notion that maybe not 63 cents, but I think it's more likely than not for the reasons I laid out. This will be a democratic sweep. And by the way, this gerrymandering, it's horrible. You know, it's attempt by legislators to decide elections and not the voters to decide up by join lines. Oh, yeah.

They're picking their voters, not vice versa. Now, the midterm winner, okay, in terms of just party, it's really interesting how it flipped in September. In September, the betting totally flipped to put us where we are now. What do you think the seminal event was that triggered the markets to move like this, polymarket. The collapse of, number one, the collapse of Trump's approval rating. You know, it's always been negative, but not as negative as it has been recently. There was one poll that may be an outlier where he was down to 29 percent. That's just extraordinary for a president at this point in the administration. Then the other thing that I think has turned are these

recent polls showing, let's look at the Senate, that Democrats may not win, but they're competitive in places you would never expect Democrats to be competitive in. Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, Texas, Texas, Alaska. You know, these are solid Republican states, won big by Donald Trump. So I think those are the two precipitating events that have turned the prediction markets. It's not random. The house has been solid going blue with them for a long time on Polly Market. Many months. Are they, I mean, it's literally like 90% right now. I'm telling you, I think there's a smart money bet.

You know, not money you need for college, not money you need for your mortgage. Never bet money you need. They have to win a lot of seats that they haven't won before to turn the house. Alan, and I get the historical context. It's only four seats. It's only four seats that they have in one. You know what I mean? Of course.

You've got to flip seats. Right. That happens all the time in midterms. Seats flip tremendously in midterms. But we've never been this gerrymandered. We've never been this divided in the modern era. I agree with you. But as horrible as the gerrymandering is, it may have been over extended.

That is, there's only a limited amount of voters that you can spread out in your gerrymandering. You don't create new voters. You simply reallocate voters. And there are those who say who follow these individual House races, which I don't do. I'd have nothing else to do if I did that, saying that they may have shaved a lot of these districts, say, in Texas and Florida, too close. And they could be won by Democrats. It doesn't mean they weren't intentionally and deliberately discriminating against Democrats. but, you know, they can't control the outcomes of an election.

I think one of the big sweeping changes that we're ripe for because you really can't change the electoral college. You want to have a constitutional convention. It's actually easier than people think it is in terms of how many states you need to want it. But, you know, I don't know that we have it in us. I don't know. But one of the things that could absolutely ride it is I am going to create federal law and I'm going to fight it with everything I have in the courts

that we are going to control the districts. The federal government is going to control the districts. I'm going to put together a body of non-office holder, sophisticated people. We're going to work with the census people and the demographers, and we're going to decide the districts in this country. The states are not going to decide them because of how fucked up it's gotten. I think that's going to have a lot of populist appeal heading into the presidency. Now, I believe that talking about the presidency, people ask me all the time,

Who do you think the Democrats are going to have? I have no clue who it's going to be. Neither do I. But I do think it's interesting that J.D. Vance, so for Polly Market, they have him at 20%, which is interesting. One, because a sitting vice president should probably be doing a little bit better than that. And two, the idea that anyone thinks that the Republicans are going to win again after Trump, I think is mind boggling to me. But what do you think of that, that the leading the polls right now is J.D. Van, at like 20-something percent for who will be president in 2028?

You know, it's very, very difficult in advance this far away to figure out who's going to be nominated. I'll tell you a little story about the Democrats. The Democrats for decades believed we should nominate safe, experienced, well-known candidates like Walter Mondale in 1984, Mike Dukakis in 1980. John Kerry in 2004, Hillary Clinton in 2016. And as you know, what they all have in common, they all lost. It's been the off-the-wall candidates who've won. People never heard of these candidates until they burst out recently to the nomination.

Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama. I remember watching a show called What's My Line way back then. And they had Jimmy Carter on, and no one knew these expert panelists had no idea who he was. Donald Trump wasn't even included before 2015 in the polls of Republicans on who they prefer to be president. So the notion that you can anticipate who is going to be nominated, you know, two years ahead of time or so is a fool's errant. It could be someone we had no idea was going to be nominated in either party, particularly when you have an open seat and that, you know, throws everything open on both sides.

Yeah, I think that like a Mark Cuban type is going to be attractive. I'm not part of the establishment, but I understand it. Kind of like an authentic manifestation of Trump's original cell. I'm a rich guy. They all know me. I've worked the system, but I hate them and I hate the system. And I'm going to break it all up and I can do it uniquely. Now, he's done the opposite, in my opinion.

But I think that that has appeal. But I do think there is a message in the early prediction markets that Alexandria, that AOC, when you talk to people, because she's leading the polls for Democrats, okay? Is she? I thought, I thought Harris was. On Polly Market, no. I mean, Harris is, you know, Harris is underwater, which I think, you know, makes sense to me. But the, AOC is big. When you talk to people about why they would say AOC, they say, well, look, I don't think she's going to win.

But the Democrats want disruption. They are pissed at their party. They are pissed at the status quo. And they want big change, which is why they're not afraid of the S and the DSA. It's not that they want to be socialists. It's that they hate this system and that they are and people aren't learning the lesson of Trump. When people want to reject something, they are not going to tolerate you telling them. No, no, no.

You can't reject it that much. They're not going to listen to you. especially if you're part of the system that they are rejected. Democrats have made that mistake for decades. So AOC isn't, yes, we want her to be the president. It's I want radical change, just like the MAGA voters did. And the Democrats who left to vote for that. Maybe it was on different reasons of prejudice and by whatever.

Whatever. But the message is there. You ain't going to get by with a ducacus. Yes. I wrote a whole column about this. I have a show with my son. You know about it every Tuesday and Thursday at 9 p.m. Eastern at Alan Lickman YouTube. I've talked extensively about this.

And I've been a big critic of James Carville, you know, who did something great in 1992 and has been trading on that since, who tries to be the membership czar of the Democratic Party, saying, you know, who should be in and who should be out. It's the fallacy you're pointing to. Instead of tearing your hair about these Democratic socialists and trying to expel them from your party, learn from them, as you say, why are they generating the kind of enthusiasm that the more safe, mainstream candidates are not? Don't try to expel them. Don't try to attack them. Learn from that. And I'm hoping some Democrats leaders listen.

So I'll be talking to Alan a lot between now and the presidency, God willing, because he's just a straight up historian and political scientists. And we need the perspective. We need our philosophers. We need our gray beards right now. Hey, watch that. Because, hey, listen, you look good. There's no question about it. I'm not going to erase you. That's for sure. But when it comes to the keys, are you going to tweak the keys or do you understand how to apply them now differently when it comes? And by the way, I always defend the keys and Alan. Why? I don't care what you think about him being wrong. And look, I was talking to him all the time about the Harris Trump election.

And I was like, are you sure? Because this feels like, and he was like, you've got to look at this. And now he's got different understandings. Does that change the keys or how to apply them? That's a great question, Chris. And I have been wrestling with that ever since the election. A lot of critics, and there's some merit to that, say, you know, I developed the keys 45 years ago based on historical patterns. And I said this, and I've said this to you on your show, but most people don't listen, that historical patterns can change.

They're not constant forever. And, you know, a 45-year run is a pretty good one. So my big question is, have historical patterns changed, or is that you? this a blip election because of the strange things we know about that happened within the Democratic Party that we've never seen before, the tremendous amount of disinformation, or is there some fundamental change that I either need to tweak the keys or change how they are being applied? And I have to tell you, I'm wrestling with that, Chris. I wish I could give you a definitive answer. I don't have one yet. Well, whether you're tweaking you.

the keys or not, I absolutely am going to have a seat for you at my table, not because you're Elijah, but because I want you there to be part of the conversation about what we should be considering. And to me, that is a 100 to zero proposition. So thank you for talking to me. Good luck with the new book. Congratulations. I can't believe you didn't include Obama. Crazy, but it makes sense within your own framework. Thank you. I really appreciate this great conversation. and I hope people will buy great American presidents. It's now available. Got published about two weeks ago.

Critical thinkers should want it. It's great food for thought. And that's what we need right now. It's to be distracted from the noise and get back to what gives us a signal. That's what Alan's work is all about. Professor Lickman, thank you very much. It's great to talk to you and I'll talk to you again soon.

You know where to find me. I can't get over the fact that the guy's wife is six inches taller than him and a champion power lift. What an interesting couple. He says they're a power couple. That's true on a number of levels. But I think what's also interesting is that he does believe that there is something formulaic to the way our outcomes are in our politics. I don't know that I can trust that anymore, not trust him. I trust him implicitly. But I feel like we're in crazy times. I feel like the rules don't apply anymore. But then I go back and I see in history how we have been through cycles like this before. But then I say, but I've never seen anyone like Trump before.

And, you know, and the way he abuses the system. And then I see how that's been said in the past before. I don't think equally to how we're living it with Trump right now. But that ultimately things seem to work out. Has that changed? Is this the end? I mean, these are some really frightening things. And we choose, I mean, I think you got to choose optimism, but it's got to be rational.

It's got to be reasonable. You've got to be a critical thinker about it. And that's why the keys are. are so interesting to me is how does history serve us in this moment or has everything changed? What do you think? Comment, let me know, and we'll keep talking about it because conversation has to be the cure. All right, I hope you benefited from this. I hope you found it useful. I hope it was food for thought for you as a critical thinker. I hope you're getting your gear. Got a brand back, baby. You've got to let people know that you're different. You're not some lemming,

okay? You're not just going to default to type, okay? You're going to think about it. it and you're going to make choices that matter, not based on left or right, but right and wrong, and not left or right, but reasonable. Okay? I'll see you again next time. Thank you for subscribing and following here and on Cuomo Crime Time, where I look at the big crimes through the lens of why does this case matter to what we are as a people in a society, not just the prurient, not just the stupid toxic narratives and the clickbait, okay? We've got to be better than that. You and me, we can be. So let's get after it. Listen, a lot of great things. have been happening on the podcast. So what I want to do is give you those best bits. Put them

together with similar themes and big moments where you can watch them and get an appreciation for what move the needle. And a reminder of who said what and when in this big conversation that we're trying to have. So thank you very much for being a part of Mo Mo's Best Moments.