The Chris Cuomo Project - Ian Bremmer Says There Is No Iran Deal

Episode Date: July 7, 2026

Ian Bremmer (President & Founder, Eurasia Group and GZERO Media) joins Chris Cuomo to break down the biggest geopolitical and political questions shaping America today, from Iran and Israel to artificial intelligence, China, and the growing anti-establishment movement transforming U.S. politics. Bremmer explains why he believes there is no real Iran deal despite the White House’s claims, what the ceasefire actually accomplished, why he sees Trump’s strategy as a major foreign policy setback, and how the conflict could continue to affect inflation, energy markets, and the economy heading into the midterms. The conversation also explores Israel’s security challenges, Benjamin Netanyahu’s political future, and the strategic balance across the Middle East. The discussion then turns to AI, where Bremmer argues that governments are falling behind technology, why artificial intelligence is moving faster than regulation, how China is competing with the United States, and why AI could reshape national security, the economy, and the future of work. Finally, Chris and Ian examine the anti-establishment wave emerging in American politics, the shift toward economic populism, younger voters, and why the next political movement may look very different from MAGA. Join The Chris Cuomo Project on YouTube for ad-free episodes, early releases, exclusive access to Chris, and more: https://www.youtube.com/@chriscuomo/join Follow and subscribe to The Chris Cuomo Project on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and YouTube for new episodes every Tuesday and Thursday: https://linktr.ee/cuomoproject Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Offer ends July 22nd, 2026. Visit Ancestry.ca slash beginners for details. Terms apply. Are we anywhere close to a deal with Iran? Is this really Israel's fault? Is what's going on somehow related to AI? Is AI everything? And is AI going to drive the midterms?

And is what we're seeing in the midterms right now? Horseshoe polarization that has been seen all over the place in the world? Are those things real? Yes. And here's what you need to know. There are answers to each and all of these things. The noise is actually distracting from real signal. There are answers.

How do I know? Because I got the guy who has him. I'm Chris Cuomo. Welcome to the Chris Cuomo Project, Ian Bremmer. This guy travels the whole world all the time for GZero Media, and he is a leading international geopolitical thinker and understanding of the diplomatic, the socioeconomic, the straight economic, the political, the political economies, all of it in real time. That's what he does. How does he see where things stand with Iran or not? Israel's role

or not? What it means back here at home now and at the midterms. And what is happening here and what is actually driving it and where does it lead us? So many questions. Why? Critical thinkers have questions. And the problem is that people throw answers at you that really just suit their agenda. So what is a clear-eyed analysis? What is the deeper look? How is it all connected? What does it mean? That takes us to Mr. Ian Bremmer.

Ian Bremmer, as I live and breathe, I don't think I've ever had more need for your perspective both in terms of what's happening to America. from America abroad and at home. And I've been following your feed even more closely than always, and you are very tuned in. So let's start abroad and move into home. It's always good to see you, Chris. Happy to do it.

Pleasure, brother. So the Iran deal, in quotes, is that even the right word? No, no, it's not the right word. It is because a deal brings us back to, the Obama JCPOA, the nuclear deal, and it makes us think about, is this a better deal? Is it a worse deal?

We're nowhere close to that. All we're talking about is getting the straight reopened, and it mostly is, right? I mean, that's why oil prices are coming down and the ships are going through. It's not 100%. And some of that is Iranian chippiness and leverage. And some of it is it just takes time

to actually unstuck the waterway. And we also have virtually, I wouldn't say no fighting, but very limited fighting compared to where we wore before the ceasefire. That's not a deal. It's not a deal at all. But it does get us closer to the status quo ante where we can put behind us the disastrous missteps of the last four plus months. The argument is, no, no, no, no, not disastrous. got us to a better place. Something had to be happened. They were about to have nukes. And now we're going to get a better deal than we've ever had before. Yeah, that's the argument. I don't see it. If that were to happen,

I'd be delighted, of course, as would you. We'd certainly love to see the Iranians come to the table and give up all of their enriched uranium stocks and willingly allow inspectors in to ensure that that is indeed happening and not engage in enrichment going through. forward. I am very skeptical that will happen. That has not happened. They have not agreed to that. They haven't come close to agreeing to that. And they've gotten a lot of money for a country that hasn't agreed to any of those things, right? They've gotten money from being able to now sell once again, as they did at the beginning of the war, their exported oil at pretty significant rates. And also, we're seeing significant amounts of their assets being unfrozen.

That's well before we talk about some possible in the future nuclear deal that no Iranians have agreed to. And there haven't really been serious negotiations since the war started. Why are my friends in Riyadh and in Amman saying, I can't believe you people agreed in the MOU to treat the regime as a sovereign. Is this really that unusual? And why is it something we don't really talk about at home, but seems to really piss off my friends in Saudi Arabia and Jordan? Well, I think they're surprised in a way because the war was predicated on the notion that the regime itself.

was illegitimate. That's why it was decapitated. Trump did say he was going to change the regime, did say he would choose the next Supreme Leader. That was a moment of overconfidence, shall we say. Jews. Did you just slip in the Jews? Oh, no, my friend, I didn't say anything about the Jews. This isn't Tucker Carlson. I knew it was the Jews. I said Jews. I said Jews. Oh, Jews. No, we're just, first we're on Saudi Arabia. and Jordan, we can get to Israel eventually, if you like, and remember, anti-Semitism and anti-Zionism are two different things, though there's frequently overlap. That's not what we're talking about. We're talking about why it was that Trump decided to do this extraordinary deal

with an Islamic Republic that he considers to support terrorism and is illegitimate and has killed thousands upon thousands of its own citizens brutally back in January. And the answer is because they had the leverage. And if you talk to White House officials privately, that's what they tell you. And even Trump publicly said it was going to be an economic catastrophe if the U.S. continued the boycott. Well, if the Iranians know that Trump felt that way and they do, then why would they possibly give him anything? And so the Americans were stuck and Trump was stuck, going cap in hand to Iran basically saying, what do I need to do to get you to reopen the strait

that had been open before? That is the problem. And it's very analogous not to Vietnam or Afghanistan. It's analogous to Trump's first big foreign policy mistake where he thought he had leverage and he didn't with the Chinese, where he hit them really hard with all of these tariffs and essentially a boycott. and then the Chinese hit him back really hard.

And suddenly he realized within weeks, you were going to have factories shut down. Just like within weeks, you were going to have oil prices over 150. And in both cases, Trump, who can throw a big punch, but can't take one, has a glass jaw, had to back down. That's what we've now seen. He's 0 for two on his big swings, his big swings.

Venezuela was a big win. Wasn't a big swing. These were big swings. Decapitation against the Islamic Republic. and an effort to bring the world's second largest economy to its knees, 0 for two. A for effort? No. A for effort.

I mean, I for incomplete. You know, you've got to actually show up at these lectures, right? You've got to actually turn in your work. And, I mean, you know, it looked really good in the first class. No question. He had great stuff in the first inning, right? I mean, high and tight. He was throwing some heat a second inning.

I don't know where that picture was. You know, they were calling up triple A ball. And by the fifth inning, he was gassed. And they had to pull him and they had to bring in somebody else. I don't know what metaphor you're looking for here, Chris, but there are plenty. They say, well, hold on. You're ignoring the only thing that matters. They were weeks away from a nuclear weapon.

It was imminent. Somebody had to do something. Trump finally had the knockus. to get it done. The nares. Yes. I mean, look, I think no one questions that Trump has nares at least until he gets kicked in him, right?

Nobody questions that. But there was no sense that the Iranians were intent on developing a nuclear weapon because if they developed a nuclear weapon, they were going to get blown up, right? By the Israelis and probably by the Americans, too. They saw that last year in June with the 12-day war. And so, no, they definitely had ever since the Americans pulled out of the JCPOA, should I say the Trump administration unilaterally pulled out of the JCPOA in the first term,

the Iranians started building up their advanced uranium and rich uranium stockpiles. So yes, they got much closer to a nuclear weapon, nuclear weapon capability, if not intent. because of the withdrawal. And then the Americans blew them up once. And frankly, there was good argument that the U.S. should have done it again, as the Israelis say, mow the grass, right? And that is ensuring that you continue to constrain their capabilities. Now, that is not a decapitation attack against the supreme leader

and all the top military leaders. That's not taking out energy infrastructure and driving black rain across all of Tehran. That's not taking out, you know, their Navy. It's none of those things. It's making sure that the weapons capacity that they are getting closer to, they get farther away from,

as the Americans did a year ago. Why didn't the U.S. did do that again? There's literally no one in the Trump administration making the argument that they needed to go much, much bigger, radically bigger, because, of course, what was impressive about the 12-day war. And remember, the U.S. didn't start it.

The Israelis started it. Even though it was so urgent, Trump didn't want to be a part of it to begin with until it was successful. And then he said, okay, now I'm going to get involved. But at that point, the Iranians talked really big against the Americans. They did hit the Israelis and they killed a fair number of Israeli citizens with their ballistic missiles. They weren't striking at the U.S.

The one strike they had against the American Qatari base, they gave the Americans a heads up through Turkey and Iraq hours before to ensure that this did not escalate. So, I mean, the Americans understood that not only did you have a reason to hit the Iranians in a strategic way, in a surgical way, when they're developing their enriched uranium stocks, and they are enriching at a higher level, but also that the Iranians don't hit back. Now, what Trump then decided to do in February out of an extraordinary overabundance of confidence coming off of Venezuela and his win there is he wasn't going to just mow the lawn again. He was going to change the Iranian regime.

Also on the back of all those Iranians that were killed by the same regime, he was going to remove the Supreme Leader and their leaders. and his presumption, which was wildly wrong, was that they would then bend the knee as he expected the Chinese would and they would do whatever possible to cut a deal with Trump and that he would be able to get them

to align with U.S. investment and oil flows and all of that stuff like we're seeing from Delsey Rodriguez in Venezuela. And when that did not happen, when instead the Iranians broke glass pole lever because they're facing an emergency of regime change, Trump has literally no plan. None, zero. So that's the problem.

That's the problem. You keep saying Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump. Yeah. But what I'm hearing more and more from the Trump administration, and I don't know if you'll remember this, but when we were first talking about this, I was worried. I didn't know that I'd be right, but I was worried that they would come to the conclusion. Somebody's got on this, and it ain't going to be us. That fucking BB Netanyahu, man, he duped us.

He lied to us. He told Trump, and we told Trump, you can't trust this guy. He's not your friend. Trump said, well, I want to give him a chance. I love the Jews. And Beebe said they're weeks away. Bebe said, we can take them all out. And if we don't, this is the moment they come for us. And Trump trusted him. And Beebe played him, sneaky Jews. That's what I'm hearing more and more from the people around the president. Is it true? Is it effective? I hope that people around the president aren't telling you sneaky Jews. That would be really very, very disturbing. No one around the president has said anything like sneaky Jews. That is how it will be heard by the feast of haters looking for meat on the bones of their anti-Zionism.

Well, you and I need to do everything possible to ensure that Prime Minister Natyao's failures have nothing to do with the way people think about the Jewish people. And BB has been looking out not for the Jewish people. He hasn't even really been looking out for Israel. He's been looking out for himself. You know, I mean, October 7th, most of the Israeli voters blame Bibi for that. You and I have talked about this for years now. that he was the one that was facilitating money to Hamas

so that he wouldn't have to deal with a two-state solution with the Palestinian administration. He authority. He was the one that took Israeli defense forces away from Gaza's security towards the West Bank, supporting his far right, even fascist, if you will, coalition partners that are taking, taking land, supporting the settlers in the West Bank,

taking his eye off the ball. He's the one that's trying to take away, an independent judiciary in Israel, leading to a million people on the streets and a general labor strike that included a whole bunch of people in the armed forces and in intelligence that weren't at their desk jobs so that they could protest what they thought was a guy that was trying to destroy Israeli democracy. So lack of trust for BB is nothing new. Bibi looking after himself to ensure he doesn't go to jail and he stays in office is nothing new. And Trump is more aware of that than most leaders because BB's been trying to play Trump for years and years and years and

years. And Trump does Trump. Trump, you know, was the one that forced BB to accept the phase one Gaza deal, which Bibi didn't want to do. And then Trump went to Israel and he addressed the Knesset and Bibi is booed and Trump gets multiple standing ovations because he's far more popular in Israel than Bibi would ever be. So the idea that Trump is incapable of saying no to not yet, and he was somehow hoodwinked by the prime minister of a far, far smaller country that relies on the United States for intelligence and advanced defense and still billions of dollars of aid in defense every year. I don't accept it. I accept that he was one of several that were, you know, sort of whispering in Trump's ear, we've got to do this, we've got to do this, you're going to look so great,

you're going to look so wonderful, sir. But if there's one thing I've seen this term is that everyone around Trump is competing to tell him how brilliant and wonderful he will be if only he listens to his own instinctual genius impulses. And that is a bad way to run a country. It's a bad way to run a cabinet. It's a bad way to run alliances. I mean, Mark Ruta, has in NATO, has been doing very similar things in that regard with Trump's ego to BB Not in Yahoo. I mean, I think with better outcomes and which outcomes that are more aligned with U.S. interests long term. But I don't think that Trump needed a lot of convincing again on the back of wild success in Venezuela, on the back of thousands and thousands of Iranians getting killed, and him thinking,

I'm going to have another big win. And then I can do Cuba after that. And they may not give me a peace prize, but nobody else could have done what I did. I did the Abraham Accords first time around. I'm going to have a string of strategic victories this time around. So I'm unwilling to lay this at the doorstep of the Israeli prime minister. I think that he deserves some credit for it in the same way that Pete Hague set deserves some credit, but frankly, in the same way that a lot of people, even like J.D. Vance, and J.D. was obviously skeptical? But was he willing to air that skepticism?

And we know from J.D.'s signal conversation on the war that Trump, was planning on launching against the Houthis in Yemen that J.D. was telling people internally. I think this is a bad idea. He's being advised badly. This is not really his interest. And Stephen Miller and Pete Hague, Seth, and others are all going, who are? This is going to be awesome. Thumbs up. Bombs to these guys. And Vance never brought it up to the president. So does Vance not deserve some credit for this Iran war when he's the sitting vice president? and he has a track record of not even telling the president what he actually thinks when it's bad for the United States?

I think Vance deserves some credit. There's enough credit to go around. But the buck stops with Trump. I mean, he's the guy that we elected, and he's the guy that ultimately made the decision and pulled the trigger. Hey, Ontario. Come on down to BetMGM Casino and see what our newest exclusive the Price's Right Fortune Pick has to offer.

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What should people know about the Israeli people's sentiment about BB? and about how much you should do against Hamas and Hezbollah? Oh, well, so not the Iran war, but Hamas and Hezbollah, I mean, I think that the Israeli people have moved towards the right on their political spectrum across the board since October 7th. So, I mean, their view is never a two-state solution, maintain occupation, including in southern Lebanon unless and until Gaza, Hamas operatives and Hezbollah operatives are fully disarmed. That's what they want. And that has not happened. That is certainly not happening. The Lebanese government does not have the capacity to make that happen. And so that means maintain

occupation. Look, there are plenty of Israelis that live in the north of the country and they are facing rocket attacks and increasingly sophisticated drone attacks from Hezbollah. It's not just that the Ukrainians that know how to do this stuff. There are a lot of IDF soldiers in occupied southern Lebanon that are now getting killed because Hezbollah now has that capacity. So I think despite the fact that the Israeli people blame Notin Yahoo for falling asleep at the switch and having culpability for October 7th, and despite the fact that they blame him for a war that is not making them more secure with Iran. They absolutely support continued military operations in Gaza and in Lebanon against Hezbollah. Those are broadly popular positions

among the Israeli citizens today. Does that make them warmongers who are not good allies for the United States? No. I think that the fact that you have countries around the world that have priorities that focus squarely on their direct national security interests and those interests do not completely line up with those of the United States does not make a country a bad ally. It just means the Americans need to be clear-sighted. There are lots of countries around the world with very different security needs and priorities. Frontline NATO states dealing with Ukraine and Russia, like Poland and the Baltics, have very different perspectives on what they should spend, what they should do, how they should support Ukraine, and how Russia should be damaged to the

views of the Spaniards or the Italians or the Canadians, for example. Japan feels differently from Australia, right? I mean, you know, the Indians are good. strategic partner, but they're hedging much more than those allies I've mentioned have been. And then when you talk about the Gulf states, I mean, Israel, in terms of their level of intelligence sharing with the U.S., Israeli intelligence on Iran is considerably more sophisticated in most areas than the U.S. And the Americans rely on that and have relied on that for a long time. Having said that, Americans in the intelligence operations at seen your levels worry that what the Israelis give the Americans is cherry picked and it's filtered,

and that, you know, you shouldn't rely on it without also checking the best sources that you have yourself and with your allies. You can't just go in and say, oh, that's what they said, so we should just accept that as God's truth. But, you know, that's also, I mean, the Saudis, the Emirates, all of these countries have different interests to the United States. Doesn't mean they're not aligned, but they also spy on the U.S. and the Americans. and spy on them, right? And I mean, the level of trust is greatest among the five eyes. And that's, you know, of course, the U.S. and the Canadians and the Australians and the Brits.

I mean, those are the, in New Zealand. Those are the closest relations, I think, as allies. Everyone else is farther from that. But Israel's been pretty close. All the white guys stick together. When we get close to the midterms, what is the most reasonable assumption of where the Iran's situation stands and its materiality to the moment of the midterms? I don't think, I mean, look, I saw John Ossoff sent me a text yesterday with his latest video on Iran, and I thought he did a pretty good job with no exaggeration of just all of the promises.

all of the war goals and all of the failures that Trump made, and it's very powerful today, I don't think that speech is likely to play in November. I think prices will come down. I think the U.S. will be Iran and the rearview mirror. There'll be Cuba to talk about. There'll be Mexico. There'll be Venezuela. There'll be a host of domestic stuff. And the U.S. will also be in midterm fever. So I don't think it will be as big of a deal. But it's, you know, as a failure on foreign policy, it's by far the largest we've seen since the Iraq war. So it's major. And it's costly.

And even though no American ground troops were sent, Americans did die. A fair number were injured. And the costs are real. Food costs are going to be with us. We'll see more inflation for another year because you lost a growing cycle with the lack of fertilizer. So, you know, we're at over a forehandle. for the last print on inflation. Inflation is going to be higher in November than it would have been if Trump hadn't decided

that he wanted to go all in on Iran. And no deal. I think affordability will be an issue for Trump. And Iran is kind of, you know, it's part of that proxy. And there'll be no deal. And there will probably be no deal. I mean, not definitely and not 60 days, but there will probably be no deal. Yeah.

why Israel matters. AI is also why they matter. They are very sophisticated as evidenced by not just their own development capabilities, but their relationships with China and Russia when it comes to AI, relationships that the United States does not have. How big a piece of the puzzle is that for the United States, interests, you better stay close to Israel because Russia, Russian isn't just the third most common language in Israel. They have real ties there. They have real influence with them and the Chinese.

Look, I mean, there's no question that there are some capabilities, some surveillance capabilities that the Israelis have developed, but they're also developing it with American companies, with Palantir, with Scale AI, with Andrewil, with companies like this. The Israelis would have a hard time doing all that by themselves. And there are a lot of security measures that help ensure that those efforts are not, they're being ring-fenced, they're not being shared with American adversaries. And I think that there's a fair amount of confidence that that is indeed the case in operation. I think when you look at what the hyperscalers are doing today in terms of advanced AI models. The Israelis are not remotely close to the United States.

No one is close to the Google's and the Microsofts and the Anthropics except the Chinese. That's it. Now, I mean, from a defense perspective, I could increasingly ask whether, I mean, Israel is a particularly important ally to the U.S. because of their intelligence capabilities and experience. and history in the Middle East. But in terms of actual advanced AI capabilities in warcraft, you could increasingly make the argument that the Ukrainians are catching up fast. And the Americans told the Ukrainians, you don't have the cards and kick them to the curb just a year ago.

And that was an enormous mistake. The Ukrainians today are the most powerful military. No one else is close in all of Europe. Number two in NATO. And the Americans should be working closely with the Ukrainians to share that technology and that experience because those are warfighting capabilities that will leapfrog a lot of the legacy systems that the Americans have been spending billions upon billions of dollars for for generations, but will be mothballed with AI.

And so I wish the U.S. was a little more foresightful in leaning into relations. relationships with allies more broadly and the things that they are bringing to the table. You said in NATO, but they're not in NATO and they're not going to be in NATO anytime soon if we want to end that war with Russia. It's almost certain to be a precondition. Correct. AI, when you look at it, the argument I'm making is it's not to be seen as the latest technological advancement that will all add more jobs in it will take. I think it's different. I think it's more akin to electricity, which is it is an entirely new power source that we don't know what it will mean, but as is electricity, it is not to be controlled by Ian Bremmer. It is to be controlled by the government, by the American

people, heavily regulated in terms of how it's allowed to be adapted and not left just to commercial and profit concern. Yes or no, doable or not? Yeah. Yes and probably eventually doable in certain areas after crises force it. Look, we almost had a jet blue plane. We had a drone hit on a jet blue plane. We have no idea if it's just an enthusiast or if it was an actual malicious attack. But you know, you're going to see AI powered fleets and swarms of drones that are going to be at some point, they're going to take down a commercial plane. At some point, there's going to be an incident against a world leader. There's going to be a mass casualty event in an open air stadium. These are AI capabilities that right

now, the U.S. and other countries do not have adequate defenses at scale. You could stop attack on the president, but you're not going to be able to stop attacks broadly. There are concerns about bio-weapons that can and will be developed by people that have access to AI. Again, tinkers and terrorists. And, you know, Open AI Foundation is starting to spend real money in creating air filtration systems and, you know, masks at scale and other, other capacity to respond to a bioterror incident, which they expect at some point will probably come from, you know, their and other models that the U.S. government, other governments will unadquently be able to respond to. Look, we just talked about Ukraine and the Russians are now on their

back foot. And I'm delighted that that's true. But the reason it's true mostly is because Elon Musk decided that he was going to cut off Starlink to the Russians back in February. And I'm very glad he did that. But I don't think it is the place of one guy that happens to own a company to make that decision. That decision should be made by the government, by the U.S. government, right? And it's not being. So I wasn't comfortable when a bunch of social media companies de-platformed a sitting American president. That decision should not be made by individual CEOs of companies. I don't care whether I agree with the decision or not. I don't want the decisions to be made by those companies.

And what I see is that the technology is moving too fast. The government leaders don't have the capacity, don't know what they're doing. The companies have spent an awful lot of money to ensure that they can mostly self-regulatory. in areas that might affect and might touch their profitability. And the threats, the threat profile from exploding AI technology that's getting so much better and more advanced on a monthly basis, you know, never mind a yearly basis, is that there are too many vectors of threat for the U.S. government, for example,

to know what they should put resources into, what they should regulate, what they should govern. So as a consequence, it's very, targeted reactive post-crisis. And of course that should worry else. Hey, Ontario. Come on down to BetMGM Casino and see what our newest exclusive

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please contact Connects Ontario at 1-866-531. 260 to speak to an advisor free of charge. BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with Eye Gaming, Ontario. A bridge idea here that will take us to the domestic is that Trump has made his choice. He's bringing the tech bros to China. He's bringing the tech bros to the G7. He has chosen the AI guys over the American people. This is a huge talking point and organizing point on the left.

And it has real traction. People are afraid of AI. And he's already made his choice that he's going to be on their side as opposed to our side of regulating them and holding them back because he sees that they are holding up the stock market. As people should know, you basically. have a handful of companies overwhelmingly AI-related that are what is supporting and driving the Dow Jones Industrial Average. What do you think of that? You know, he's obviously putting Jared and Wickev and Lutnik over the American people. He's putting himself over the American people, the kleptocracy, the self-dealing, the billions and billions of preferred deals

and the manipulation of the stock market and all of these, you know, sudden, huge. spikes in targeted investments before a political decision is made. We don't we don't have any clarity on, deserves to be fully investigated, and at some point, of course, will. And by then, everyone's pardoned, and he assumes that he and those close to him will bear no consequences. So I certainly think that there's plenty of willingness to put folks above the American people. There's no swamp being drained. But I think when it comes to the AI companies, when I saw the response made by the Secretary of Treasury, Scott Besant, to Anthropics mythos model, that was a concern that this model can unearth cyber vulnerabilities in the financial

institutions and in the U.S. national security arena, and therefore the government has to take control because this is going to be a disaster otherwise. And that's what they did. My point is that decision came after the anthropic raised the alarm bells. It was only done in the financial industry and only in the United States and not with allies because that was the guy that happened to be aware, be capable, and take action where you'd want to have. the water companies and the power companies, all of which also have software vulnerabilities that would have been on earth by the same model, that didn't happen. So again, my point here is that it is reactive, it is responding to crisis, and it is very narrow. And that will be

inadequate for the state of play. I mean, we all want American companies to do well in AI. They are holding up the economy. They are driving productivity. It's extraordinary what they can do. I accept the electricity analogy, except this is much bigger. Bigger than electricity? Yeah, well, in terms of how much faster it's moving. Yeah, I mean, you know, we were electrifying, you know, sort of over generations. AI, we actually have uptake among the entire population on the planet that's been globalized over the course of just a few years.

I mean, there's no ability for the government to work in lockstep with the technology to create the regulations, it's too fast. Is AI what allows the Chinese to dominate the world and puts us in a position of subservience? I don't think so. I mean, I think the Chinese are certainly investing in a lot of big long-term technologies and they're creating an electrostate.

I mean, so they're investing at scale in batteries and EBs and solar power panels. And that helps them a lot. to make cheaper energy, which can power the data centers, which will allow them to have more effective compute, even if their semiconductors are behind those of the United States. That's impressive. They're ahead in robotics. That matters.

They're doing really well in biotech. That matters. But their economy is not only small in the U.S. It's also pretty weak. They don't have a lot of consumption. They've got serious problems. in bad corporate debt. The real growth is not 4 to 5%, as they say publicly.

It's more 1 to 3%. All of the experts generally say that. So it's not like they're catching up to the United States. And I think that the safety around AI and their models is going to have the same riddled with the same problems as the U.S. They're focused more on the application side. They will have big advances in industrial and military applications. for AI, and some of those things, I think, will help them grow over time, and some of those things

will be great for the planet. An AI guy who is Chinese American said to me, we have a gross assumption here in our culture that we need to correct. And I said, okay, what is it? He says, you know, you probably grew up thinking that the Chinese kids were better at math than you. And I said, well, a lot of people were better than math than I. But, okay, I'll give it to you.

I probably did think that. And he said, the Chinese as a development and technological people are stupid compared to us. We are way better. The Chinese who are any good at this are here. That's why they steal all our shit because they take the easy route because they can't compete with us the people we have here. Now, of course, he is grossly generalizing. But is there anything to that?

And what does it miss if not? I travel to China pretty frequently. I don't know how anyone could understand the world today without doing that. I think that the rate of improvement of their own technological capacity. city in-house, in country, is world-class, world standard. It's the Europeans that are falling behind. It's the Japanese that are falling behind. It's the Canadians that are falling behind.

China has a very different model. It's very much state-directed, the capital and the preferences and the laws. They're picking winners and losers, but they are educating huge numbers of engineers. They're huge numbers of STEM-educated graduates matriculating from China every year. And yes, some of them have a lot of the advanced ones have come to Columbia where I've taught them. And they've come to MIT.

They've come to Caltech. But fewer Chinese students today than five, ten years ago, in part because their own universities are getting better. like Xinghua, for example, where I've given lectures at Chinghua and the questions I get and the students are every bit as talented is what I see at Columbia or Harvard or Michigan or you name it. And also because America has seen to be somewhat less welcoming to the Chinese, both legally and in some cases politically, than we have been over the past years. And some of that is smart because we don't want, you know, Chinese. coming here and, you know, sort of basically getting trained in advanced systems and using that for the Chinese military, some of that is stupid because we do want Chinese to come to the U.S.

and stay and have families and have great work life and become part of what always has been successful in the United States. But yeah, I think that that wasn't just a generalization. I would take issue with the idea that they don't have talent. Hey Ontario. Come on down to BetMGM Casino and see what our newest exclusive The Price's Right Fortune Pick has to offer. Don't miss out.

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please contact Connects Ontario at 1-866-531-2-600-0 to speak to an advisor free of charge. BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with Eye Gaming Ontario. The horseshoe polarization that is going on in American politics right now, where you had the right fringe, MAGA, absorbed the Republican Party, and now it is being met embedded by the fringe movement of the Democratic Party that I call mega, that is bigger and deeper and deeper and has college-educated people in it, that will be the reaction formation to it. Is America going through what we have observed elsewhere in the world in terms of battling extremes? And where does it leave us? Yeah. And I think it's kind of like what

happened at the end of the Gilded Age, which is you had a very serious backlash. on the left and the right. In that case, it led to the New Deal and the creation of a new administrative state that invested massively in infrastructure and created the bones that allowed for a working and middle class that could thrive and flourish for generations.

So I do think that a lot of Americans are going to oppose the establishment and they're going to demand something that feels like a political revolution, some will be on the right, some will be on the left. I think that what we're seeing on the left is a moving away from the identity politics that was very narrow

and a moving towards economic populism and anti-corruption and anti-AI. And obviously, to the extent that that becomes more and more extreme, it will endanger some establishment capabilities throwing the baby out with the bathwater. Like in the same way that you knew that there was a lot of waste in USAID, but you didn't want to shut down America's ability to limit Ebola outbreaks, for example,

and you ended up doing that too. There are a lot of people that abuse the American regulatory system and enrich themselves at the expense of the U.S. You don't want the Americans to destroy competitiveness and entrepreneurship because they're going after people that are capturing the regulatory environment. And, you know, so for me, I don't mind seeing, you know, sort of a non-DOM tax on people that have petiators in the U.S. But I don't want to see Americans or New Yorkers demonizing the people that are actually building wealth, building companies in New York that make New York wonderful. could we pay higher taxes? Sure. Could those things be targeted at better education, for example, at improving public transit, for example? Yes, do those things. That's fine. But you are too pragmatic and not sexy enough. Socialism is sexy. Oh, we know I'm not sexy enough. Disrupted. I could even open another button and you're not voting for me. Disrupt it is sexy. Get rid of the establishment is sexy. Socialism, for some, is sexy. Does it have to be sexy to work? Well, I mean, I'm not sure that,

mom, Donnie, he talks a good socialist game, but the people he's put in office so far in terms of those that are around him actually implementing policy do not seem very socialist to me. As a New Yorker, the streets I walk down still seem very business oriented and capitalist in orientation. I haven't felt shaken down by this government yet. But now look, as a New Yorker, I'm used to lots staggering incompetence from our mayors, right? I'm used to it. I'm used to talking a big shop and then like we just all get on with doing New York shit. And I mean, look, it's been a great run for New York the last few months.

I mean, look, we got the World Cup, we got the Knicks. We just had Pride Day. I mean, you know, the weather's good. I mean, it's a staggering time to be in New York right now. So, I mean, fuck it, Mom, Donnie. All he has to do is tie his shoes in the morning, jump in, to a pool with a suit on and we're all good with Moundani, right? It's fine.

But we do need to understand that, you know, even though you didn't vote for Mumdani because, you know, you're biased. And most people that you and I know over 50 didn't vote for Mbondani, almost everyone we know under 30 did. Almost everyone. And at some point, you have to ask, what is it that they are seeing that the old guys aren't seeing? Because, you know, they are the future.

and they're sick of 80-year-old Trump and 80-year-old Biden telling them this is the way it's going to go because it hasn't gone so well for them with those people. I'd love to see far younger people in Congress. I'd like to see the next president under 50. I'd like that. I really would. Whoever it is.

I think that you're going to see different people coming in. I think you're going to see what's going to make this unusual if it stays at this dynamic. is you're not just going to see MAGA lose. You're going to see sitting Democrats lose. So it's going to be a two-in-one. It's going to be the MAGA primary phenomenon. Yeah.

And a MAGA as the majority and status quo owner defeat. I think both are going to happen in the midterms. The question is, then what? For the people voting for the change, that is a, luxury. I just need to stop this. I don't care how you put out the fire. I'll deal with that later. I got to deal with the fire. It burns. It hurts. That's where we are. And people who think it's not going to happen because of the word socialism is missing the moment. Ian, I love you. Thank you for taking the time. Thank you for the brain food. As always. Talk to soon.

told you so smart Caesar all helps a critical thinker with food for thought that really kind of connects these ideas how what is happening and not happening in Iran is related to what's happening here vis-a-vis Israel but also the economy and what that militates us

in terms of the mega movement versus the MAGA movement and what we're seeing in our politics and why it is and what it's motivated by and why so many sophisticated people seem to want to destroy capitalism unless you're wrong and that's not really what they want to

do. They want to force it to change the same way MAGA wanted to put a virus into the political corpus in the form of Donald Trump, not to destroy our politics, but to make it sick. Give it a fever that when that fever breaks, hopefully leaves it in a better place. I think that's what we're seeing with the mega movement. Now, that's not what the Democratic socialists want. They want systemic change. And that's what they're pitching, even though they're very sort of voce about it. They're very quiet. Why? Because they know it's a scary thought and that people in America conditioned to not want that. But the reality of the economy and wanting it to change is more powerful than the fear of what you will change it to, just like with MAGA. Get rid of these

illegals. We never really talked about how. Then you start seeing the how with the ice. You don't like it so much. Well, let's get rid of ice. Equally extreme. Equally extreme, but that's what a horseshoe polarization is about, where the fringes wind up being the closest points of contact. Middle, centrist, moderate, weak, all week. I want extreme, I want muscular response so much so that I will prefer a man for president in my polling that I know can't even run. Because he wasn't born here. So why would I even say him? Because I'm so angry, I reject the status quo so vehemently that not only am I going to take out MAGA, I'm going to take out MAGA, I'm going to take out members of my own party because they're not real ones. It's happening at once.

We didn't see that with MAGA. First, they went after the left, the establishment, the Hillary people, right? Then they had a cleansing of their own. This is both happening in real time at the same time. Why? Because that's how reaction formation works. The pendulum doesn't swing from one side and stop in the middle. It swings all the way the other way. And that's what we're seeing now. People are angry, just like in 2015. In fact, there are more of them. and those college-educated people are going to make a difference. Young college-educated people specifically and especially. So you got to see how it all fits together and you got to get a feel for that vibe and Ian Bremmer did that for us and that's very nice because we are critical thinkers.

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