The Chris Cuomo Project - Investing in Uncertainty: Kevin O’Leary’s Take on 2024

Episode Date: July 23, 2024

Kevin O’Leary (investor, entrepreneur, and Shark, ABC’s “Shark Tank”) joins Chris Cuomo to discuss the intersection of politics, investment, and societal trends. O’Leary shares his insights on the current political climate, the role of small businesses in America’s economy, and the global implications of the 2024 U.S. presidential election. The conversation also covers the impact of cancel culture and the importance of policy over politics in shaping investment strategies. NOTE: This interview was recorded before Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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And why does he wear two watches? I'm Chris Cuomo. Welcome to the Chris Cuomo Project. Kevin O'Leary, everybody knows him, but you're about to learn a lot more than most. Ah, Cozy Earth. Support from the Chris Cuomo project comes from Cozy Earth. I like it. I've told you this. I stick with it.

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So obviously, things have changed since I interviewed Kevin O'Leary. President Biden has dropped out. I didn't think he would. Kevin O'Leary, though, still has the same concerns. No matter who's running, it's about the policies. So the conversation is still as fresh as it was, we just have different players on the board for now. Kevin, thank you very much for joining us.

You got it, great to be here, thank you. Two watches, why? New York time, Abu Dhabi time. This is where all the money is in the world. This is the capital of capital. I do a lot of business over there, a lot, and I need to know what time it is because I keep waking up my guys at ridiculous hours.

But this way, and also I'm in the watch insurance business, so I encourage you, Chris, to wear two watches so I can insure both for you. I like that. I am not a watch guy. It used to be because I always just had to add a link because I was too much of a caveman. Um, but then I ran into an issue when I would interview people and they were on

hard times. I never liked walking in there with something that was like, you know, worth their house, uh, on my arm. So I got away with it, but a lot of my friends are fans of yours first of all, and they do ensure their stuff. So once again, you're in a good business. The thing is though, you should consider watch collecting. Nobody needs a watch. You can use your cell phone

to get a much better accurate time read, but these are now considered pieces of art, particularly on certain brands, and they have been appreciating better and more than the S&P 500 over the last seven years. Not every watch, but certain brands like Rolex, Atom RPK, Patek Philippe, and now this FP Journe Phenom that's going on. These are two FP Journes. This is the only one in America with a red band.

This is made for the restaurant FP owns in Geneva, and only people that are patrons get one of these watches. That's collectability. That's sort of what happens. And so other collectors, it's no different than buying modern art. And so they have appreciated dramatically as a form of capturing value and they're transportable for Asian clients. Right, which is of course huge

because the revenue center's there. Deep pockets. Why have we seen vintage cars, art, with an uncertain economic environment, why have we seen that those pockets of investment and also asset classes increasing? Is that a flight to safety? I would say it's several factors. Let me give you the use case for one I know very, very well, obviously watches, but it's no different than cars. My wife collects modern art.

When you get into that community, particularly the watch community, it's a culture, it's a club. It's like-minded people from all kinds of different walks of life. That because you also are passionate for the timepiece, it makes you feel socially part of it to be part of their world. The only way you get to be part of their world is not the snob factor of, oh, I've got a more expensive watch.

You don't get to be a collector until the watchmaker, the artist believes you're a real collector. They just don't sell the watches to you. If your plan is to flip a watch, I mean, if you go buy an F.P. Jorn and you wait two years to get it, and it goes up a thousand percent, which it does, and you turn around and sell it, F.P. himself knows you did that. There's not that many F.P. Jorns. The minute he sees it in the secondary market, not only you blacklisted for life with Jorn,

but every other maker knows what you are. You're not a collector, you're a flipper. You're ostracized from that society in perpetuity, and you'll never get back in. And so when you get that kind of a culture, which people don't understand about watch collecting, when they do, they strive to be part of that community, and it makes me feel warm and fuzzy. Not about the money. I get watches that I don't pay a lot for,

but there's only three of them in the world because the maker knows who I am. It took me decades to get that status, decades. And so if you mention my name anywhere on earth to watchmaker, oh, I know that guy, he's a real collector. I have never sold a watch, Chris, in my life ever. And all of them are coming in my coffin after I die. They're coming with me in the afterlife.

You need a good timepiece. Like an Egyptian royal. Exactly. So the point is, if they know with certainty that I can collect and support, you know, horology. I'm a member of the New York Horological Society. We celebrate. Remember, you're giving up your life at 14.

That's it, you do nothing else. You become a watchmaker, that's it, at 14 years old for the rest of your life. That's what you do. What does it mean to you to be known as Mr. Wonderful? I don't know how that happened. We've been trying to find the tape where that occurred. We think it was an exchange with Barbara Corcoran

16 years ago on Shark Tank, but we're not sure. But I'll tell you today, there are many people around the world that don't know my name. When I landed in LA a few months ago, the guy had that card, said Mr. Wonderful on it for the limo, and I said to him, do you know my name? He said, yeah, you're Mr. Wonderful. I said, no, my real name. He said, you're Mr. Wonderful. I said, you don't really know my name, do you? He said, no, I don't. So that's how far it's gotten, but it's a passport worldwide. I'm the most hated man in

Austria. Nobody knows that. I won an award for it. That's pretty weird because I was on a train from Geneva to Zurich and this couple said, we just got married, can we get a picture with you? Everybody hates you in Austria. I said, why? Well, you're the mean one. I said, I'm not the mean one. I'm the only guy that tells the truth on Shark Tank. Anyways, can we get a picture? I said, I'm that most hated guy and you want a picture for your wedding with me? Yeah, yeah, we'd like that. No difference specifically in American culture

between fame and infamy anymore. True or false? Oh, that's 100% true. I mean, there are so many examples. I remember in year three of Shark Tank, whoever the CEO of ABC was, because there's been a lot of CEOs over the years. Media jobs are the most volatile jobs in the world.

I really believe that. But he called me into his office and he says, "'How you liking fame now?' And I said, "'Why are you asking me that?' He said, "'Because I know it's not what you thought.' And I said, "'That's true. Why are you bringing up?' He said, "'I'm just, how are you dealing with it?'

I said, "'I'm dealing with it. I'm dealing with it. And yes, there are some downsides to it. But I'll tell you a story that for me sums it up. And I always tell this story on the two cutting edges of infamy and fame, if you want to call it that. New York City, seven years ago maybe, eating at a restaurant called something South Southwest or Two Ways, some crazy name

with my daughter and my wife and my son. It'll come to me in a second. It's a nautical name, very long sentence, famous restaurant here. And somebody comes up and says, can I get a picture? One if by land, two if by sea. That's it, what's it called again? One if by land, two if by sea.

How crazy is that? I mean, it was great food. And this woman came up with her young daughter and said, can we get a picture? She's a big Shark Tank fan, she's nine years old. And I always do it for kids, even if we're eating. And it really bothered my daughter. She just went nuts.

Said, why can't we ever get any free time as a family? Yada, yada, yada, yada, yada. Five hours later, when we're asleep in the hotel, it was not the cell phones that was ringing. It was the phone in the room, which never happens anymore. Wow. And I pick it up, and it's my daughter saying, Daddy, I'm outside of this club with all my friends,

and we can't get in, and the bouncer's a Shark Tank fan. Would you please talk to him and get us in? I said, Savannah, you hate fame. You told me you didn't want to be interrupted, and now you've gone to the dark side? Never bring this up again. If I talk to this guy and you get in that club, it's over. Do we have this agreement?

There is the essence of the pros and cons. That's what it was. And to this day, she doesn't utter a word. The big check on boldface names has been the manifestation of cancel culture and Me Too. Not to say that every boldface name deserves that kind of scrutiny, but that had been the operative principle. Observing the plus minus of that, what is the cultural commentary of what we've seen transpire in the last three or four years in terms of social accountability? I think it's a great topic, but it started in comedy

That's where the first canceled culture started. It's talking like Lenny Bruce way back then that's my argument There there was never a comic with such social satire before. And it disturbed people immensely, but the crowds kept flocking because they saw something in themselves in what he was saying. He was telling the truth. And so that was the beginning of testing the edges of where our culture is at any one time. The comedians who I've got to know over the years have, most of them I've learned have a very dark side. They live in a horrible lifestyle and they're in bars.

Even successful ones are often troubled by drugs and alcohol because they're tor... Depressed. The best are tortured souls. And they're always pushing the edges on their material, testing it every night. And we as a society used to let them go over and pull it back if they felt an uncomfortable vibe

from the crowd. We used to let the market decide. We used to. That does not happen anymore. And the difference between then and now is your cell phone. It's social media. Because everything you do, everywhere you do it is recorded.

That goes for war too. This war going on in, uh, in, in, in, in Middle East and, you know, in Israel or even Ukraine, Israel, particularly, uh, in Gaza, every single ordinance explosion is covered. And it's so much for the Jews controlling the media, by the way, because they're getting killed. Nobody controls the media because people make

their own decisions on watching the outcomes of these situations, in Ukraine as well. So it's the same thing happening in cancel culture. When something goes viral and it touches a nerve and you're on a platform, you're gone. But we have, because we have allowed, and by we I mean people in my business, we have allowed the dynamic of magnifying a minority audience on social media to be a proxy for

Vox Populi. You get 5,000 people who say, I hate this, 10,000 maybe, it might as well be 150 million. And the media has done that. And it has infected everything as a process, and I believe is the main culprit behind what we saw when former President Trump was shot in the head. I don't know if that guy did it because of what he heard from Trump or about Trump, but it doesn't matter. We are in the business now as a culture

of magnifying minority beliefs. Our politics is dominated by a binary system that battles to the bottom, wouldn't work in any other marketplace except in our politics. They're okay with Trump and Biden because they don't care how good their product is, it's just that the other one is worse.

You now have numbers we've never seen before about rejection of both. Trump is ahead right now, I would believe. Less than four in 10 people say he can be believed. His voters and non-voters, cum to less than four in 10. This I see is all part of the same dynamic. How do you see it? So I look at it through a different lens. My day job and my night job is to deploy capital.

I am an investor, a global investor. I work with a lot of different groups in sovereign wealth and private equity and individual investors and family offices. And we do everything from venture, which is what I'm known for on Shark Tank, all the way to mega infrastructure projects around data centers. So I've never made any money on politics. I've made money on policy. And so I've spent in the last three years an inordinate amount of time on the hill.

I'm very, very fortunate. The Shark Tank passport, as I call it, gets me into any office, red or blue, or independent I want. Every single politician wants to associate themselves with American entrepreneurship, regardless of their color. They just want to be part of what makes this country incredible, which is entrepreneurship. I would argue that 62% of our jobs are created by small businesses between five and five hundred employees, more than the S&P creates. And so those politicians, that's their constituency. So I get to meet with them all the time.

And they do the least for those people, by the way. I realize that. And so, and the reason I got active on the Hill is when I see bills like the Inflation Reduction Act or I see the Chips and Science Act I actually have a team that reads them these things are telephone books and I marched right into the author's office and say this doesn't work for small business show me one line allocating capital to a small business in here. You've just given two trillion dollars to the S&P 500, and they'll take the meeting because they know I've got a platform that's massive to that audience and I call them out on it.

So I said, if you're going to start writing policy, you better give me a call because I'm going to point out that you should be supporting your constituencies and I'll let them know you're not just because I'm an advocate for small business in America because that is America, that is what we do and we've gone a little off piste so to speak in these policies which are just really can I get five CEOs in the S&P 500 to come to the White House and tell me how great I am. It doesn't make sense. They never bring an auto dealer in, and they never bring a dry cleaner or a restaurant owner. I mean, that's a mistake.

My point about all this is, let's go back to the Trump-Biden situation. Let me draw a circle around it for you that I'm dealing with as we speak, OK? I'm watching these polls. I'm getting calls from all around the world on these polls. They're watching everything that's happening and unrolling and they're watching the convention

and they're watching every speech anybody makes. Let's take energy policy in this country. 11th, one of the 11 sectors of the SMP, one of the largest and most important, because I'd argue every sector needs energy. You can't have an economy without energy. We have an infrastructure policy currently, and I'm not saying for our con, the policy says you can't do anything in energy without an agency deciding whether you should get

a permit or not. As a result, our ability to create new electricity, just electricity, has been diminished dramatically in the last four years. The investment opportunity is in the trillions. Now, I don't know if you listened to that speech Doug Burgum gave on CNBC just 48 hours ago. Everybody thinks he's either going to be

Secretary of State, Interior interior or secretary of energy So his words matter Assuming Trump becomes president What he basically said is we're gonna use the balance sheet of America to get us out of debt by opening up our ability to create more energy through green forces through Solar through wind through oil through gas turbines, through everything in a portfolio. No one thing is bad. He's saying everything can work as long as it's economic.

I hear that and I'm on the phone to sovereign wealth funds saying, listen to this. And they're saying to me, how do we hedge the bet on this thing? Because if you want to go get permits, you're going to write a check for $5 to $30 million on this stuff in states like Oklahoma, North Dakota, West Virginia. These are the places that now are the hot zones for opportunity for new energy. Here's the way I look at it. You tell me, and I don't have

a political bone in my body when I tell you this, Chris. Midnight, August 7th, if you tell me that Harris is vice president for the ticket for the Democrats and Biden is still leading the charge, and Trump is still the candidate, as we now know he is as of 48 hours ago, I'm gonna triple down on energy before the election. If you tell me that they're going to swap Harris out

for Gretchen in Michigan, I'm not going to do that because then I have way more risk that Biden stays in. His ticket right now for an analytical polling for Capitol, remember, I'm putting Capitol up. I'm not, no political bone in my body. They stay with that ticket. I triple on energy. They change that ticket.

I wait for the election. Because he is the most unpopular vice president. And if you're worried about longevity with Biden, you've got to be voting for Harris. How do the Democrats not pick Kamala Harris? If Biden says he wants to go, I don't think they can kick Biden out. Biden says, I've listened to my wife, fill in the blank, I listen to somebody, I'm not going to do it. How do they not pick Kamala Harris? Because they're going to lose. So you're saying a black woman can't win?

She can't win. A black woman could win. Well, remember, to the Democratic audience, how do you say we're not picking? This is not about color. It's about executional excellence at the vice president level. She would never be voted by an independent. Remember, I'm not

making a political call, I'm making an investment call. An independent voter would not vote for her, not because of her color, because of her track record and her lack of execution skills. So the media will push out polls, I'm not saying they'll manufacture them, but there'll be polls out there that show, in the list of others, Harris is very high among the Democrats. That's true. But while she, look, right now, they just put out a poll just on name recognition alone.

She's not in the top four to replace Biden. She's not, as of an hour ago, not in the top four. Bringing forward candidates to replace Biden, if he was to be pushed out, which we both agree probably won't happen. Remember, I'm not looking at it from a political perspective. I totally get it. I tried to decide, do I actually put 30, 40, 50, 60 million dollars on the ground before

the election? I can't do that unless I know that the probability of success is higher. Right. The first poll that came out had Harris at 29 percent and nobody in double digits, but that's because they didn't know them. Then they changed the question of who do you think is the best person to replace Biden? And then they had, right now, and what I saw from the major polling companies, there's three out there that have it out, she's in the mix or ahead with Newsom, Whitmer, and two others.

You're only talking about Democratic voters. Yes, yes. Chris, that's a mistake because the seven battleground states will determine the presidency. Oh, I'm with you. I'm saying the question is, how do Democrats, with what they say they're about, right, which is diversity first, diversity first, how do they explain not picking Kamala Harris, who's a sitting VP, which means you said she was good enough to be president,

who is a woman and who is half black and keep the black vote? They've had her for three and a half years. You know, this has nothing to do with diversification in terms of race or gender. It has to do with execution skills. And at the end of the day, if you know you're gonna lose or think you're gonna lose the Senate and the House

in one sweeping vote, the right change is at the VP level. Because you're right, they can't swap him out. They'll lose $200 million worth of donations, which they can't do. They may lose money, although this dark money stuff now is so fungible. It's hard, but the point is, I don't think you can push out the president who's already been nominated and may be in a shadow nomination in 48 hours.

And we know Iowa, I mean, the reason I know so much about this is I'm talking about $50 million here. And I'm nervous to put that to work unless they keep that ticket the way it is and my argument to these potential investors because they're asking for the same analysis this is not a this is not pro-democrat or pro I don't care what I care about is what's the policy outcome come the election you believe that if Biden stays in there, they won't open up enough opportunity for energy even though they'll say America's making more energy than it ever has before right

now? No, it's not true. If you look at the electrical grid, this is what I'm talking about. We need more electricity. They say it about oil specifically. Yeah, no, but I'm talking about net gas. The easiest path politically and in terms of carbon neutrality is gas turbines off abundance of gas we have in North America here. These are huge projects.

These are, you know, 30, 40, 50 million dollar projects, but then you get the electricity you need for cars, EVs and everything else. Right now you can't get a permit to do that. You cannot get a permit. So... The regulatory environment. The regulatory environment is punitive and so... And Democrats are more pro-regulation than Republicans. Yeah, and nobody understands this unless you actually go to a state and try and do a gas

turbine electrical farm. With all the new technology of carbon scrubbing and everything else, you can't get it done. And so if, if Burgum gets in, in any of those mandates I just described as a secretary, associated with the regulatory environment we know that Trump had in the mandate prior, it would open up power in this country. We would be totally energy secure. But then you would attract foreign capital here. But I don't want to do that unless I know that the stakes remain the same. Wherever you're going, you better believe

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you here on the couch in the house. I speak to a lot of people who are very influential raising money for the Democratic Party, okay? Well, how's that working out for them right now? How's it working out for me? No, for them. Oh, right. How easy is it to out for me? No, for them. Oh, uh, right. How easy is it to raise money with the ticket as it is? Right now they are causing their own problems.

Well I rest my case, Your Honor. After the debate, we expected, they expected, donors expected, corporate pockets that are going to give dark money into the packs and hedge, which the easiest hedge is always to give to both. But if they want to be cost sensitive, they cause their own problem by raising questions about Biden. The poll numbers didn't support it. There was a little bit of a move. I was shocked. I thought there was going to be more of a move. But here's what they tell me. They can't get past. The who is easy. Oh, we're worried about Biden. Okay, you're worried about him. Who replaces him? And how? They cannot answer either of those questions. I'm not saying they don't know the answer. I'm saying there is no answer. This early vote they're going to have through the DNC, people are upset about that. Not

enough of them. It's going to happen. Well, but it can change at the convention. True. But you don't have enough energy to change from Biden to anyone but Kamala Harris because that but but you know, but I'm telling you, you need to hear where their head is. As Democrats, they don't know how to explain. You're saying she can't win. She can't win. Democrats can't say that because you're saying a black woman can't win. No, no, nothing to do with her being black or white or whatever gender or race. Doesn't matter. She has a track record. It's not like she just started yesterday. She's been here for over three and a half years. It doesn't matter what a Democrat says. It matters what

the independent voter is going to do in the seven states that matter for me as an investor That's all I care about. How's it gonna work in Michigan? How's it gonna work in Pennsylvania? What's gonna happen in Iowa? You're a pragmatic person. I have to be I'm putting I know they are party and you can make a mistake when you vote and get It wrong. I lose 50 million dollars. I totally get it. But as a party they can't get past party thing Okay. Well, why does why JD Vance, a Vivek Rameswamy, a DeSantis, why do they all say Trump is great? Because they're in that party. The Democrats don't know how to explain not picking the sitting VP who's a black woman and keep the black vote.

However, I can assure you, I also have great access to the on both parties because I'm trying to buy tick-tock I don't know if you're aware of that no so I've had a chance they just banned me permanently and then gave me my account back when I complained on my show well they are going to the law of the land as of January 19th is they're going to have to change ownership I hope to be part of the at least one of the syndicates that buys it. Don't ban me when you take it. No, no, I get it.

But I basically, I'm a big supporter of TikTok because there's 7 million, all of mine are on it and we acquire customers. But I talked to Trump about it and I talked to some people close to Biden. I never got to Biden. I got to Trump on this issue. So I formed some friendships in his inner circle

and I've been talking to them off the record almost daily about this dilemma. And the big issue is fundraising. They're having some trouble right now fundraising. And you think after getting shot in the head, Trump's going to have problem raising? No, I'm talking about Democrats right now. Oh, yeah, yeah. They'd like to settle the uncertainty issue about Biden's position. I'm like you, I'm assuming he's staying, but they do see an opportunity to swap out the VP role to someone that would get more independence to vote. Remember, there's lots of independents who hate Trump that would vote for anybody, but they won't vote this ticket because they don't think she's up for the job as president.

Don't shoot the messenger. I've never met Harris. I'm sure she's a wonderful person. Democrats can't do it and not get attacked by their own. Then they'll face the consequences and my investment thesis will be right. Yes, your investment thesis, and again, I'm not questioning you.

I'm saying you got to look at it through the lens, to use your phrase phrase of the audience. Among Democrats, saying that you're replacing a black woman is a death sentence. There must be another woman of color that has better executional skills or whatever you want. Certainly there's other women. And I think of a woman vice president would be a perfect... You can't replace a black person and not replace a black person and well I hear what you're saying not for Democrats if you're facing losing the house and the Senate maybe you need to do some soul-searching maybe you should rather lose well then

that's an interesting statement if that's the case it for me because I am very very nervous about deploying large amounts of capital and not knowing the outcome on policy I'm really scared. They believe that the lack of movement in the numbers since the debate now we haven't seen since the former president escaped an assassination attempt, but They believe the anti Trump vote the Trump is too crazy Did too much crazy shit the first time, and will do more the second time, is enough to win.

Then why is it down at all time highs? I think they're anticipating a change in policy on all 11 sectors to a more accommodative for business, including a deregulation at the federal level on a lot of red tape. Because we know, we know that Trump doesn't like red tape, and we know that Burgum certainly doesn't, he said said so and he's gonna be in one of these positions particular on energy. Wall Street likes it. Main Street votes on concern about the

democracy concern about stability concern about their household so that's the economics of groceries and gas but independents care about the nature of the leadership and that's Trump's problem. I agree, but we started this narrative on this conversation regarding my lens. My lens is an investor, so I don't like to get dragged down, oh, you're a Trump supporter or you're a Biden supporter. I didn't say that.

No, I'm a policy supporter. Yeah, I'm fine with that. I wanna do policy that helps create jobs in America and I don't care whether they're red or blue or independent jobs, I really don policy supporter. Yeah, I'm fine with that. I want to do policy that helps create jobs in America, and I don't care whether they're red or blue or independent jobs. I really don't care. By the way, I've got lots of CEOs in my portfolio who are very left-wing. I've got lots of very right-wing, and somehow we all work together to create jobs and make money for our investors.

We don't talk politics that much. We do talk policy. Why don't Democrats get a better reputation for creating jobs when you look at the numbers during Biden versus during Trump? I think just bad marketing because they deserve some credit. I mean, they really do. There's been some very, very good unemployment data, including the most recent. We're in great shape in the economy right now, although people think that we're

not. I don't think Biden's people have done a good job. Somehow they've been talking about things that have nothing to do with the kitchen table discussions. And so they should be taking more credit. They seem out of touch. It could be, but they have nothing to be ashamed of in this economy. And it's just amazing that they're not taking more credit or somehow not getting more credit.

Well, here's how it works. You be the lefty for a second and I'll be the other. I don't know how to do that, Chris. Well, but you will on this issue. My gas price is higher. My food price is higher. On your watch, I'm not voting for you. What do you say?

It's a tough one. Inflation is always the enemy of the incumbent. And unfortunately, the only challenge, and I'll tell you why this inflation has been so sticky, we wrote two trillion, too many dollar bills. We didn't need the Inflation Reduction Act. It's been very inflationary. And I'm not even sure chips and science isn't going to get reversed. The reasons Taiwan's semiconductor has collapsed in the last 48 hours of trading is that Trump has signaled he's not giving free money out to

foreigners. So it's really going to be a problem about printing. But inflation under Trump versus inflation under Biden, it's higher under Biden even though it's on the way down. You're right. You lose. He's suffering that one. He's suffering that one. That's why they don, even though it's on the way down. You lose. So you're right. He's suffering that one. He's suffering that one. Yeah.

That's why they don't talk about it. And it's going to be difficult. I do not count Biden out. Otherwise, I'd make that investment today. I'm waiting to see what happens. I'm no different than a contributor to the Democratic Party. The big ticket guys are telling me, I'm waiting till we get certainty.

If you tell me with certainty that it's Harris and Biden, okay, I'll write a check. If you're gonna change it, let me know, because I don't wanna write a check with uncertainty. Yes, well, right now you have uncertainty, although you're getting to a better place. I think there is no October surprise. I think that we've had the surprises.

We know where we are. Well, August 7th is really the surprise, right? Well, that's your deadline, midnight August 7th for Iowa. I think that they pick, I think Biden Harris is the ticket. And all this hand rigging is more magnified by the media than the numbers of electives within the Democratic Party.

Well, I hope as an investor you're right, because I'm pulling the trigger. If that's the ticket, then I'm going long energy. That's going to be the ticket, because they cannot replace Harris and not get destroyed by their own. Then I'm very, I don't know how to put it. But here's who controls it, though. I'll tell you who controls the moment.

Not Biden, not the Democrats, not who they pick. Trump controls the moment, here's how. If Trump pivots after the assassination attempt, now he picked JD Vance, which is not a good indication of pivoting. But he's always been controversial. Fine, but JD, when you pick a guy who is a red meat MAGA guy,

then you're not looking to pivot unless Trump says, well, I've taken care of MAGA. First of all, I am MAGA. Second, I gave them Vance, so they'll be happy. But now I'm pivoting. If Trump says, you know, you get shot in the head, it makes you think. And I'm glad to be able to think. Right.

And I am speaking to the many and no longer just the few. I understand the outrage. I understand the grievance. No one has talked about it more than I have. But what got me here won't get me where I want us to be. And I'm going back to DJT 100. You are writing a great speech there. So DJT 100.

Middle of the road idea. Well, but the only thing that happens when you're in the middle of the road is you get hit by traffic on both sides. No, but then you get to throw the red meat Vance. That's right. So Vance is taken care of right? He took care of them DJT 100 was an initiative that Kushner was supposed to put into play when they were first elected the first time But he got savaged by himself and he got overcome by playing to the division and it never happened

Donald John Trump 100% approval and it was supposed to be a marketing campaign to get as many people to like Trump as possible to create consensus. It was a great idea. If he pivots to that now and says I'm not anti-democrat, I'm pro-democrat, cooperation is strength,

compromise is strength, I'm going to make more pieces of legislation on my watch than has ever been made before, all I'm going to do is do. I'm just going to do. Some of it you'll like, some of it you won't, but I'm gonna be doing like crazy. Legacy. If he did that, this race is over. If he says that, the race is over. But I don't think that's lost on him. I think he's thinking, I could have a very consequential second term. I could execute on a lot of things that matter to this country. And a lot of that is music to my ears as an investor because all of it has to do with

the economy. And so, you know, the thing about the economy, it's not partisan. The economy itself is bipartisan. There are as many Democrats that want jobs as there are Republicans. Those are my people. I don't care what your politics are when I'm investing in you. I couldn't give a shit. I just want to know can you execute? And I don't care what party you support or what your gender is or what your whole... Can you execute in building a business? I have every gender under the Sun working with me and every party working with me and they know that I don't have a partisan bone in my body but I do have a policy bone in my body and I'm listening as this whole narrative we've had for the last 20 minutes has been on what's the policy going

to look like just on one sector energy that's when I want to invest in. If you tell me they keep their ticket the way it is, I'm going long energy before the election. You have to be as concerned with the Congress as the White House, because the bigger problem in our politics right now isn't the man or woman at the top. It's the fact that the culture is that opposition is strength. But I think the Biden ticket with Harris loses both House and Senate.

Then you can actually have action. And then you can have real action and energy. Until the midterms. I get it, but that's only a 24-month window. It's enough to get a permit. And so I'm just saying that it's gonna be... You're saying that the Democratic Party wants to reset. They're just gonna get on the ship even though it's on fire and just reset. They believe that anti-Trump, Trump fear, Trump despot, Trump screwing with democracy and using government to go after his enemies in retaliation is enough for people to not vote for him. I'm not sure that works when people are asking for policy. You can keep telling, and I don't care what party you're in,

if you keep saying the other guy's a bad guy, that's not enough to win the hearts and minds of independent voters. You have to say, here's my path for you independent voters. It's not just telling you the other guy's a bad guy. I'm telling you I've got a plan for you on inflation, I got a plan for you on border security, I got a plan for you on foreign relations. I got a plan for you on the debt

I haven't heard any of that from either party yet I'm waiting because it doesn't work as well as the other guy know but I think in this case with the situation we've got Particularly on border security these days. You got to have a plan and by the way Harris owns border security. I'll tell you, one of the things that, you know, I don't buy macro narratives. Media is left, all of these people are this way. You think the border's a macro narrative? Here's where the macro narrative becomes appealing to me

in this one instance. Harris gets put in charge of a research assignment, basically, two and a half years ago. What's going on at the southern border? We have never heard about it again from her or the administration. But that goes to the executional issue. Yes. So, I mean, in other words, she's not a bad person. She just may not have executional skills. I don't want to bash her. I'm only looking at it saying, how do I invest? Like, how do I de-risk?

I get it. But the media, look I have been talking about it but I'm only one platform right? The media should all be saying every time we hear Kamala Harris the media should be saying what did you come up with on the border? That was the one thing you've been put in charge of. And nobody even says it. Yeah I get it but I mean I don't think she's getting good marks for the border, because the border is still a problem. No, but I'm saying it's a bigger problem for her than it is being imagined.

So you just flip the ticket. You get rid of Biden, Harris is the ticket. The media narrative would immediately be two things. One, blacks don't like her. Wait, what do I mean? She's black. She's half. And she used to pretend that she was mainly Indian when she was

in California prosecuting blacks for everything as attorney general. The second thing is going to be, hey, you were the one who was supposed to study the border. You never even said anything about it. Don't you own the problem at the southern border even more than Biden did? Now you got a problem. No, I think that would happen. They find things to it. Anybody's going to try and attack on execution skills. I get it. I just think now a little soul searching would be a good idea. I have not decided to pull the trigger yet, because I think the Democratic Party's pretty smart,

and they've got some legs, and they've got a good bench strength, and I think something's going to happen. They don't know that they have good bench strength. They know the polls are deceptive. Once you put somebody in the position, it's very different than what's said about them being in the position, and they don't have a mechanism to make the change. I had this narrative just a few hours ago on a call to the UAE, and they asked me, are

you ready to pull the trigger? I said, no, not yet, not yet. I am, I'm not. I just don't think we're this this story hasn't finished unfolding. It just hasn't. We're also disconnected from the people. We are so into the magnified minorities of the fringes that are motivating the narrative on both sides, that you've lost the majority. We don't know where the majority of this country is. They don't respond to polls. You don't really have them. So you don't, that's what makes it tricky as an

analysis. As you and I live our regular lives and you talk to people who aren't in this game, I'm sure your experience is the same as mine, very intelligent people, but they have this quizzical feel about that they're non plused about what's going on. They don't understand what's motivating it and that's very telling because it shows that they're disengaged and you don't know whether or not they're picking up on everything that's being put out there and that's what makes it there's an uncertainty for me that most of the people who are going to vote are not fringe people.

No, I think you're right. But I do look at just, you know, my years on the Hill now, I know all the pollsters and they are the most sought after people at times like this. When you go for a drink at the Capitol Grill, you sit down and say, OK, what do you think today? Because they're polling 24-7. They have a lot of access to digital polling. And they watch the ebb and flow. They only seem to care about independence now in the seven states. They really only care. And they're the hardest people to poll, and they have the least susceptibility to outreach.

But to their credit- Which means that they don't want to answer your poll questions. To their credit, I think they're going to get it with less margin of error now because they've got such amazing technology that they're using, including some AI models that aren't that sophisticated. They're just good data science. I use them because I need to understand, am I getting it wrong? I'm so, as I keep saying, it's okay to get it wrong when you vote with your vote,

but it's not okay to vote with 50 to 100 million dollars and get it wrong. That's, it's also hard because if they get it right with the popular vote, that's irrelevant. It's about the electoral college. Believe me, every sovereign wealth fund on earth understands the electoral system in the United States. They totally get it. And they are watching this. The US is still the number one destination for capital around the world. It's still 60% of every currency. That's where it wants to come. There's many, many, many people like me that make a living off indexing the exchanges or

doing real estate deals or whatever. That's what I do. There's a plethora of capital, unlimited capital that wants to come to the United States. It can't do it unless it understands at least a five-year window on policy. Because these projects sometimes take five to seven years to break even, and after that, you're making your money. So that's why New York is not a destination for a lot of real estate right now. It's unstable as we've seen the last 24 months,

and why these so-called flyover states with governors like Kevin Stead and Doug Burgum and Jim Justice, who's going to be a senator now, people go meet those people in the state. They feel comfortable. They say, these guys are normal people. And we can probably sink in an 11-year project here for $3.6 billion. I mean, I'd never been to prior Oklahoma before, never

been to Fargo, never cruised West Virginia. I know those states like a back of my hand now. Those are really fertile investment grounds with good policies. Sawed in South Carolina also. Yeah, and Tennessee and Texas and Florida. These are the places where I spend my time. I'm not going to dumpster fire like California, and I certainly can't understand how to invest in New York. You can't do anything here.

You just can't get any permits. And yet New York, upstate New York, has the lowest cost of electricity in the US on the Niagara Falls. My brother used to talk about this all the time. He came up with an initiative where you bring your business here, you pay no taxes for 10 years.

The problem was that the businesses still didn't want to come because of the regulatory environment. It's only gotten worse. You'd say, well, you were the governor, why didn't you change it? Because you need the legislature. You need the legislature. I think you need a spatula. He couldn't even get fracking in the state.

He had to go bad on fracking. I think the people of New York are starting to figure out they need better management. It doesn't matter which party they come from. I don't care if they're Democrats or Republicans. They need people with more execution skills and understanding what it takes to attract capital. And the things that have happened around the real estate, all those crazy Trump porn star trials and all that stuff, that wasn't good for New York.

I followed your commentary very closely on the first one, the Letitia James, the AG of New York, where they went after him for the bookkeeping and you were like, say goodbye to commercial real estate. I was right. Like everybody in commercial real estate was saying, what the f- you know, what is this? This is how every- anyway, I'm well on the record. The good news is if your name isn't Trump, she doesn't bring that case. So don't worry. Well, I don't know how these will, it's true appeal. One of the reasons the US is still the number one destination for investing is the appellate system actually works. Yes. It actually works. You filter out the craziness.

Yes. And through the appellate process, you get a real outcome. Right. And I've always felt comfortable telling every foreign investor that's what's great about America. The appellate system is this what we built in really works when you get somebody that's... and I'll argue something for you that I think in... if Trump wins, if he wins, I think the person that deserves the most credit is Alvin Bragg. He deserves the credit.

And I'll tell you why. I was watching again from a policy perspective investing, how the Republican party was going offside on Donald Trump. They, half the party said, we've had enough of this guy and we just don't think we want the noise anymore and we've got to find somebody else. Then Bragg brings his case. They crystallized around him in 48 hours and they never let go of him. And they even showed up in the courtroom.

Alvin Bragg made Donald Trump president of the United States. It may be a perverse outcome for him. I don't know which way he's going to vote. I'm going to guess it's not for Donald, but he's the guy that did it. And I think history will write that. The case was too much. It was too obvious. But I'll tell you what, man, they sink their teeth onto me when I say that. To me, it's a no-brainer that that case only gets brought if your name is Donald Trump. And as soon as that's the answer, it's a bad case. Alec Baldwin, that case only gets brought if your name is Alec Baldwin. That's a bad case.

Yeah, but I know Alec Spiro, Baldwin's lawyer, and I was with interest looking at that. It was a celebrity case. It's a tragedy, obviously. but that got thrown out because all the dirt prosecution Alex Spiro went after yeah but they were but they were processed they it was a dirty prosecution bringing the case putting an expectation of duty on an actor no I totally get that but was it was politics. If you want to find a lawyer that understands the law as it applies in the cold hard truth outside of the celebrity aspect, although he is probably the most famous

celebrity lawyer in America now, I think he's used by Elon Musk and certainly Baldwin, I'm sure he's very expensive, he's kind of a genius. If you meet him, he's a little... Well, that worked out. I got to tell you, he got his ass kicked in the opening by the legal experts. They were like, wow, he was terrible. He was reading... That doesn't put him off. He was reading off something. Well, it shouldn't put him off. But what was interesting is, you know, opinions switch on outcomes.

So you stunk in the opening, then you win the case and now everybody changes their opinion. That's the privilege of being in the media. It's how that case was won. Digging, digging, digging, digging, digging at the data regarding those bullets. I mean, it's still a tragedy. How did those live rounds ever get into that on that set? We still don't know how that happened. Well, it happened one of two ways, right? One, either someone planted them, which I don't believe,

but that was something that they should have allowed the defense to pursue and they didn't. And the second one is you had an inexperienced armorer who someone said, let's shoot at some shit tonight. That could be a case. Brought live rounds. They shot at shit, had some fun.

Left one in the room. And then she botched her organization and she had live rounds mixed in with the blanks. It's very hard to tell the difference. She is the one in prison currently. And I think her case is going to get thrown out for the same reason. But you are right, the appellate process gets you past a lot of eccentricity. I think once the initial shock of the outcome then go through the appellate process, I mean I see it a lot in the financial fraud cases and everything else.

I'm comfortable with our legal system and I'm comfortable that it is fair and I think the reason I'm comfortable saying that is I watch the flow of capital has never diminished into America for 200 years. It's still the number one destination. When I fly to France or Geneva or London or Riyadh or Doha or Abu Dhabi, we talk America. How much has our politics changed people's perceptions of the country around the world? New York did a lot of damage to the American brand. New York, those cases did damage to the American brand. Thank goodness the appellate system is bringing that branding back. It was a concern because real estate is a massive sector for foreign

capital, American real estate. You think it was the cases not the unrelenting hostility that we have between the two parties? They saw it as that but they also thought if you're wildly successful maybe they go after me next. You know it's sort of it didn't feel right. Who's the they? It looks like in the in the case of Donald Trump because he was Donald Trump And I'm not saying they shouldn't have pursued him or you know, the jurors didn't make the right decision I don't care about that. It'll be tested through the appellate system it's We've never punished success in America ever and yet we're starting to do that

I look at Elizabeth Warren's policy in Massachusetts. I see states going after the fair share of the rich that create all the jobs in this country through their risk appetite and the capital they put to work, and we want to punish them. That's so un-American. Right. There's a new perversity that's taking hold. The American dream used to be that your kids

get to go to the good schools. They get to make money. They get to make jobs. No, they don't, unless they're successful. But I'm saying that used to be the dream, money, opportunity, and your ability to succeed or fail on your own merits and then to enjoy the fruits of that any way you decide to. Now, the one thing that I see that kind of knits both fringes together is this anti-elitism.

And I think that it is a very frightening dynamic when you have both fringes basically targeting the same group of people who is anyone who's distinguished themselves. I would agree with you. It is alarming. It's a new issue that I don't think we've dealt with before, but to punish entrepreneurship, which is essentially what is going on here, it's the first time we've ever had, you know, multi-billionaires from one idea, the Tesla idea, for example. The amount of jobs, my son works for Tesla, the amount of jobs he's created, you may like him, you may hate him, there are very few people that take the risks that he takes, that are willing to take those risks and as a

result he deserves the rewards. I'm glad he won his case on his compensation, you know, I'm just another investor, every dollar I have I made myself, I'm not embarrassed about it, I've worked like hell my whole life, I still do. I'm not ashamed of my results. And I teach that to my kids and I teach it in colleges now. I go to Harvard, I teach this stuff. I am not ashamed of capitalism. Not one cent was made dishonestly. That's how I look at it. And so if you want to challenge it, go ahead. But having politicians tell me that I've done something wrong, I find that very distasteful. Just because my outcome is success, that's un-American.

That's my answer. And by the way, that answer works. I've talked to legislatures in Massachusetts saying, here I am. I'm a product of this state. I came here with nothing. I was supported by private equity here in Boston. The outcome was fantastic for all of my investors and all my employees and all my customers. And now you want to punish me? For what specifically? You don't want me to do that again? You don't want the next guy to come here and do it again?

In fact, they won't come here because you're punishing them. They're going to Florida, they're going to Texas, they're going to Tennessee, they're going everywhere but here. As soon as they graduate from IT, they get the hell out of town. They don't want to start a company where they're punished for success. That's what Elizabeth Warren's done. I look at AOC. By the way, I think they're both very successful politicians. They have done a great job in sustaining their longevity. They say outrageous things. They raise a ton of money, but they both have this idea that punishing

success is a good thing. And that's why their jurisdictions are in decline. On the far left, it's that it is an imbalance, the equities are imbalanced and you need to take from the haves and give to the have-nots. How's that working out for them though? Well, them very well. Think about it.

I'm talking their people. That's exactly right. Their constituents are a different thing. Look at her. AOCs look like a war zone. That's right. And yet she's very popular. What other business can you look at where the approval of the business is in the shitter, right?

You define it any way you want, but it's certainly below 30%. I know where you're going with this. And the retention of your seat is over 95%. What else do you need to know? It's unique. I respect the ability to build a personal brand like that, Elizabeth Warren is a remarkable orator, a fantastic marketer, a spectacular politician for longevity metrics. I don't agree on any of her policies. And I say the same thing for AOC. That does not mean they're not successful. In their definition of success is longevity and the ability to raise money,

they are the best of the best. There's so many other senators and governors that are jealous of the power they have. That's right. To get in front of a camera and just rant and get $20 checks. Do you believe that in the three-year window from now, America is in a better place or a worse place? And can you not answer based on who's leading? No. Can you not answer based on who's leading? No, what I've learned, because I've been working here for so long, it transcends the presidency. I've never bet against America, and it's only gone up and to the right.

It's never. I mean, everybody keeps talking about, oh, it's the end of the free world as we know it. But I have a different lens because I work internationally. I would never deploy the capital I'm talking about with you in France, for example. I wouldn't do it in England. I wouldn't do it in Switzerland. I probably would do it in Abu Dhabi because that country in 52 years has done something

extraordinary and I am doing it there. But America seems to be able to every four years correct itself because people wake up after trying the bad ideas and I think that's about to happen in this election and go back on course to the core of what the economy is and the psyche of the country which is entrepreneurship. I've never seen a situation where everybody in America says, I don't wanna be an entrepreneur. I don't have an American dream. I don't want better for my kids.

I don't wanna start a business. I don't wanna try something new. That's the DNA of the country. So I'm not worried. I'm not worried. I'm worried about my investment decision, as we talked about for half an hour about energy, and you have been useful in helping me think a little bit about

how that ticket's going to stay the same and assure my triple down will work and I don't have anything against Biden or Harris. It's just I don't those policies won't work for the investment I want to do. So I have things against Biden Harris because I don't believe they're doing their party or the people of this country of service by how they've been mounting their campaign. Well, then the voter will determine that outcome. That's exactly right. The marketplace should always decide. So I don't worry when somebody says to me, oh, I hate Trump or I like Biden or vice versa. I always say to them, the market will decide. You personally don't have the power to change that.

Only the collective of a hundred million people who are going to change that. Only the collective of 100 million people who are gonna make that decision independently, regardless of what you think, and they're gonna do it in private, they will decide. So thank you for your opinion, but in a sense, it doesn't matter unless everybody thinks the way you do. We pay too much attention to the chattering class, and the country tends to get it right. We pay too much attention to the chattering class

and the country tends to get it right. We swing back and forth. So why don't you, so to me that's the ultimate confidence. I'm confident when we sit here and we talk again in January, this will be resolved. Right.

And we will be talking about my investment in Oklahoma or whatever it's gonna be. And we'll be talking about policy. And you or whatever it's going to be, and we'll be talking about policy. And you know that the people that hate whoever the president's going to be then will hate them still, and the people who love them will love them. But that's democracy, and I don't think it's at risk. I never thought it was. The system's self-corrected. Horrific things have happened. But what makes me feel better about America is not being in America. Come with me, travel the world, and you'll be fucking happy you got back here.

I say that all the time, that this is the hardest place, this is the worst place, or justice system is the worst, until you compare us to anywhere else. And it's in vogue now to say, well, that's not true. Good, then go there. I don't go there though. Yeah, I've been everywhere in this country. My wife jokes, my friends joke that I'm the best traveled, least cultured person you'll ever meet. I wouldn't live anywhere else.

I wouldn't take my family anywhere else. Well, these are optimistic words and you're right to say them because it does work that way. And I think at the end, we have a little bit of a weird narrative going on that somehow politics are, you know, I'll leave, let's leave it on this because here's a case study that I never thought I'd say but I ran for Prime Minister of Canada in 2016.

I decided to run for it. And my wife thought I was nuts but I just felt I wanted to give it a shot, okay? And I had never done politics before. And so Canada's a really big country, and the way the electoral system there as a parliamentary works is a town with five people has the same power as the fourth largest city in North America, Toronto. So you've got to go to that small town. So I got a plane and I flew to every town in Canada, from the East Coast to the West Coast, which I'd never done before. Beautiful country.

But I learned something. I learned it at a Raptors game against the Mavs. Cuban was in town. You know, we've known each other a long time, and he gave me floor seats. Very nice of him. And I had to be escorted out of the, towards the end of the game because there was some problems with people that didn't like my potential policies. So in celebrity, there are people that don't like you, and I got used to that.

But in politics, 50 percent of the population hates you and some want to kill you. That's way different than celebrity, and I wasn't used to that. That's when my wife said, hey, asshole, this is not for our family. Right. And you've spent millions of dollars on this thing

you're doing and you're losing a lot more because you're going to lose because you can't speak French. And I don't want to die for your crazy journey. And I said, well, I'm glad I did it. I agree with you. This is pretty crazy. But I got, you know, I started getting calls from world leaders saying, listen, we're looking at your poll results,

you got a shot here. And it was pretty cool. But then that game happened and it was very scary. So I know what Trump feels like today. It's not good. No one shot at me, but it must be a game changer. He was very brave in the moment. You saw that he is who he says he is It's not good. No one shot at me, but it must be a game changer. He was very brave in the moment. You saw that he is who he says he is when it comes to his

personal resilience. Still, he has to be freaked out. Look, I don't like the idea, but I hope that he is because I think that there is amazing power in perspective. And there is such opportunity because there's such desperation in the country for better. He may be a better man for it now. He may be, depends how we use it. You may be right.

He may maneuver to the center and he's got his raw meat magna guy now for VP. And he's got a reason to do it. I just got shot in the head. Yeah. You know what I mean? Like, listen, literally, I just got shot in the head. Makes you think different.

And here's what I wanna do. Here's how we get there. And I kinda think that's a very interesting perspective. And people say, fuck you, you're being pro-Trump. No, I'm pro-America, and I want us to get to a better place, and we're not gonna do it without better leadership. I never have to say I'm pro-anything, I'm pro-policy, because I do create jobs,

and nobody in Congress hates me for that. I walk through those offices, I'm welcomed everywhere. I just want a better dialogue. I want cooperation and compromise to not be weakness. And that needs leadership. And I don't care who it comes from. And I'll celebrate it no matter where it is as a function of the journalists.

Well Chris, the good news is if you actually poll the congressmen and women and the senators, I'd argue that 99% of them are good people. They really are. Yeah, they're just playing a game where doing nothing works better for them. And they have to raise money all the time. Yeah, and I want it to change.

Kevin O'Leary. Thank you. You are Mr. Wonderful for good reason. I appreciate your perspective. It's really great working with you and I think we should do it more often. I am a fan and a friend and always a call away. Fantastic.

We get the two watches, we get the lens that he's watching, politics through on Tondra Intended. What do you think? What's going to be the outcome of this election? What will it mean for policy? What will it mean for you? I'm Chris Cuomo. Thank you for subscribing and following here I'm Chris Cuomo. Thank you for

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All right, my friends, I bring you the perspective because the power is in all of us trying to get to a better place. So let's get after it.