The Chris Cuomo Project - Why Biden Won’t Drop Out (For Now)

Episode Date: July 11, 2024

Chris Cuomo explores whether President Biden will remain in the 2024 presidential race, analyzing the current political landscape and media narratives. He discusses the challenges Biden faces in the wake of his dismal debate performance against Donald Trump, including his age and capacity issues, the lack of strong contenders from the Democratic Party, and the potential impact of polling and fundraising dynamics. Follow and subscribe to The Chris Cuomo Project on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and YouTube for new episodes every Tuesday and Thursday: https://linktr.ee/cuomoproject Join Chris Ad-Free On Substack: http://thechriscuomoproject.substack.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Benefits vary by card, other conditions apply. Biden sticks for now. How do I know? I don't, but I do know the analysis and I do talk to people that most people with podcasts don't, okay? Why? Because we are over-sampled on the conservative side and the

fringe side, which have done very well, these folks, seeding S-E-E-D-I-N-G, the notion that Biden is out, Biden is done. Notice how you've heard that from almost no one on the left. Why? The game, my friends. But a vulnerability was revealed revealed and I do know the factors, I know the proposition, and I know what the right questions are to be asking. Support for the Chris Cuomo project comes from Shopify. Now I gotta tell you, I did not get into this business to be selling things, but I do believe in brand extension and I do believe in the ability to raise funds

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I'm Chris Cuomo. Welcome to the Chris Cuomo Project. Thank you for subscribing and following. So Biden, is he in trouble? Yes. Is it new? No. Okay.

You have to understand the law of accumulation when it comes to politics. Now, it's a little nebulous, it's multifactorial, and it's more about feel than it is a formula. Okay? But things start to add up, and eventually you'll get a dynamic that the media wants to hype. I'm not blaming the media, okay? And the media is not the why Biden is in trouble, okay? There's an idea that Donald Trump has written this script and the media is just following it like they always do, as with Locker Up, as with Hillary's emails, as with all the nicknames for people.

I believe that's a misperception of how the media works. First of all, it's not a monolith, okay? There is a packed mentality. There is a lot of following that goes on in the media. So when something seems to be working, others will do the same, no question about it. That's why the nightly newscasts and that's why so many of your feeds echo the same stories, because it's not an innovator's business.

It's a follower's business. So Trump is not leading us around by the nose. Okay? Certainly not me. I mean, I really have existed as a point of opposition to most of Trump's tactics lie, defy and deny for, I don't know, almost nine years now, it seems like. So it's certainly not me, but I don't see it in the overall media either. Funny nicknames get traction and people talk about them. So the media is gonna hype it. And Hillary Clinton had real problems

and she represented real problems for people who hate the establishment. But with all of that said, no one has gotten their ass whooped more by the media in the last eight years than Donald John Trump, okay? How has he survived it? Well, you know my thoughts about that. He is an agent of people's animus.

And the people who back him don't respect the basis of criticism, think that whatever's wrong with him is wrong with everybody in politics, and that he's just being picked on because he wants to fight for them. And they would rather see disruption of the system and have him be their tough guy

than judge him the way they would judge anybody else. And I know that's a little perverse, I know it's a little confusing, a little frustrating for some people, but it's the reality. And the people who have a problem with it should probably try reaching out to Trump supporters more. And I'll give you a reason why that you may not have thought of. I think that people in the center and the left should reach out to more people on the right, not the far right, because once you get into the fringes, you're in crazy land. Okay. But there are a lot of people to the left of crazy where you may have better arguments than the ones that they're susceptible to. And that's the price of ignoring them. So Biden made his own problems. The Democratic Party made their own problems. Yes, incumbents don't get primaried. It's very, very rare.

Count on one hand that mishandled firecrackers how many times it's happened. But this was one of the cases where it should have happened. Biden has an age and capacity issue. He has some kind of degenerative process. I don't know what else to call it. I can't give you a clinical name for it. I don't know what it is. I'm not gonna guess at it.

And I don't give a shit at the guesses that are being made about it. But whatever it is, it's real and it's obvious. And we live through this with Reagan. Biden's problem is not that he can't be president today. Clearly, the operations of state are ongoing. Okay, we're not in despair. All right. Now, I'm not talking about the nature of the economy and economic realities and social realities. I'm talking about the function of government. It's doing what it's supposed to do. But is it doing it as well? Of course not. But I don't believe that's because of Biden's capacity. His problem is, and I'll be good for the next five years. Can he really say that? Yes.

Can he mean it? Maybe. Can he guarantee it? Hell no. Oh, but nobody can. The same is true with Trump. No, the same is not true with Trump. The same is not true with you.

It is not true with me. Yes, we could all get hit by a bus. I'm talking about the percentages here. If you look at who Biden was when he started versus now, there's been a rate of decline that is hard to rationalize with feeling confident that he's going to be there for the next four years. And if he isn't, then you're getting President Kamala Harris and she scares a lot of people in the center and the right

because they see her as a far radical progressive. And I think her being brown or half brown or however you want to do it, all brown, brown but half Asian half whatever, however you want to break down your phobias. I think that that has a little something to do with it. I just do. I think we're color sensitive in this country. If I'm wrong great I'd love to be wrong but I don't think I am. And I think her being seen as radical not that I think that that really stands up to scrutiny, but whatever, it's about perceptions.

Perception is reality in politics. She scares people. And she didn't do that well with the black vote. And she didn't do that well in the primary. And I don't think people want her as president of the United States. And I think polling is gonna be coming out while you're watching this,

that is gonna give us a different picture and understanding of how she is on her own versus Biden Biden versus Trump and versus the field of other Democrats whose names are gonna be popping up. So why do I say that Biden's not out right now? Because they don't have a plan. And also I'm not impressed by the numbers.

I believe it's more about the right and the media than it is about the left right now. Cause they can only come up with like a dozen people. And you saw what happened with Jerry Nadler, right? I believe it's more about the right and the media than it is about the left right now. Because they can only come up with like a dozen people. And you saw what happened with Jerry Nadler, right? The most senior member of the people who were supposedly saying Biden had to go, all of a sudden he switched course. Why?

Because he had to own it. And now there's a price. And when there's a price in politics, you think before you pay it. And he's also someone, look, you don't get to stay in office as long as he has and not check one of two boxes. One, I'm a fuck you I'm doing it anyway person and my constituents will keep me. Or I play safe. Nadler's a I play safe, okay? And I'm not criticizing him. That's how you exist in a party system for as long as he has. So I'm not impressed by the numbers.

I think I could find just as many people in the GOP who want Trump switched out, probably more. They just have to shut up because they're afraid of getting primaried by him and losing to the extent that that's still true. So then why does Biden stick? Because there's not enough energy on the left yet to get rid of him.

Why? Because even though they enough energy on the left yet to get rid of him. Why? Because even though they see what he isn't, they have a different proposition than the one that we're hearing in the media and certainly from the right. Because they're treating Donald Trump like he's in his prime. Okay? He's not in his prime. He's different than when he first ran. He doesn't have the same facility with language.

He's not clicking. He looks dumpier. Why? Because he's getting older. Okay? Again, remember my operating premise. Fine, you want to compare Trump versus Biden. Again, I think you're comparing pee and poo.

Trump versus Biden is an embarrassment to you and to me and to our democracy. The fact that America can't do better than these two guys, I don't care that they're white. I don't even care that they're white and they're old and male. I know a lot of older white males who would be amazing leaders, who are amazing leaders. It's just not them. They're an embarrassment to us because I believe that we've been co-opted by the game of party politics

and too many of us are okay with it. Well, that's the way it is and it's never gonna change. We would never be who we are in this country if we had accepted that on any level of change that really mattered. I don't even know that we would have gotten any vestige, not vestige, any semblance of civil rights in this country if we accepted that. Well, it's just the way it is. Black and white is just different. Separate but equal. Plessy v. Ferguson. That was the rule too. Just how it is.

Nothing changes if nothing changes. And by the way, separate but equal was codified in law and in culture, rooted in deep, deep, deep prejudice, and we still transcended it. Party politics? Not in law, not really embedded in culture, mere tradition. We could change it. And by the way, nobody likes it. Fewer and fewer of us even want to identify with a party. The largest part of our electorate is the plurality who say, I am not Democrat. I am not Republican.

What does that tell you? It's time to start thinking about changing it because look at what it gave you, Trump and Biden. Trump and Biden? Really? That's how I want you to see it. So, I'm not for one side or the other. Now, you want transparency, I'll give it to you. Do I believe that Donald Trump is a danger? Yes. is a danger. Yes, I think that he's all about himself and not particularly capable. And what I saw last time was frightening on several levels. Oh, but the policies, I'll go through the policies with you in another podcast, because one, I would argue strenuously that they are run of the mill

conservative policies, and that he didn't even effectuate them well. And fiscally, he was a nightmare. Okay, maybe not for me. Well, yes, me, even though I make good money, I'm in New York and he took away our state and local tax deduction, which really messed up a lot of people who were income earners, even high-end ones like I am.

So, but most rich people did better under Trump. Okay, I'll give you that. But I don't know that that's dispositive of why somebody should be president of the United States. But more importantly, I think his mouth and his obsession and preoccupation with himself is a distraction from us getting things done in the country. And I think that he has disqualified himself personally and it has nothing to do with his personal life.

I don't care who he sleeps with or doesn't sleep with, who he pays to be quiet about who he sleeps with. I don't care. I really don't care. Why? I'm not picking a moral agent for me and my family. I'm not picking a priest. I'm not picking someone to date my mother, okay?

I'm picking somebody to make a really dirty business work. And that's really what I'm looking at. I'm not looking for a virtue signaler. Okay? I think those days are behind us, at least for now. But, so that's how I feel about Trump. And I have personal grievance with him. He weaponized me I have personal grievance with him. He weaponized me wrongly, falsely, and made life hard for my family. And he knew he was doing it. I told him not to do it, and he did it anyway. And I am still fair to him, okay?

I got beat up plenty about, I'm not saying that I think he's an autocrat in the making. I'm not saying that I think he's a despot in the making. Why? Well, not because I think he's better than that, but I don't think he's up to it. I don't think he has the intelligence, the sense of history, the sense of strategy, that you need to be somebody like that. I don't think he has that kind of grand ambition. I think

he's just all about himself and winning and bragging and saying things that aren't true. That debate the other night showed two things, not just one. It showed Biden is not up to the task of going toe to toe with somebody in that format. And it showed that Donald Trump will lie about anything even when the truth is enough. And I've never seen him lie more than he did. By percentage, he just talked less because he was letting Biden dig the hole for him. And it worked. Good for him in terms of playing the game. Bad for us in terms of getting a leader that can get us to a better place. Support for the Chris Cuomo project comes in part from AG1. All right, look, we all

know that I try to take care of my health. All right. Diet has gaps. Certainly mine does. That's why I start my day with AG1, okay? It makes sure that I'm getting everything I need, whole body health, starting the day, one and done, scooping some warm water and I'm good. AG1 is foundational nutrition. That's the kind of supplement you need. Gives you what you need for your gut,

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Try right now and AG1 is gonna give you a free one year supply of vitamin D3K2 and five free AG1 travel packs with your first purchase. Drink ag1.com slash CCP for the Chris Cuomo project. Drink ag1.com slash CCP. Tell them we sent you. So why is Biden still in? Not enough energy on the left. Could that change? Yes. What will do it? Poll numbers and pockets. Polls and pockets. Why? Because it's alliterative? No. Because it's rational. If he starts to

lose in the places that matter, the candidates in those places will start to fear trickle down, lose by association, and they will start to get nervous. That will affect fundraising. And then Biden has trouble if they can figure out how to get him out. Failing to plan is planning to fail. The Democrats did not plan here. They thought they were gonna just ride him. Why?

Because incumbents rarely, rarely lose. Because he beat Trump the last time and was stronger than the rest of their field against Trump. Because they are betting on the anti-Trump vote which is now summed up by their new proposition, which now that I say it to you, you will realize that you're hearing it echoed by a lot of lefties, pundits, media, but also politicians.

Biden on his worst day is better than Trump on his best day. That's their new proposition. That is their way of embracing the reality, which is Biden is off his game. He is diminishing. Okay? But I'll take a sick old man over a mad man any day. That's their proposition. Is it enough? I don't know. That's why I think that while Biden sticks for now, that the convention could be a real thing. A real thing. Now, what is pushing us in that direction of getting rid of him? Well, the biggest check for me is that they don't have a plan. So if you don't have a plan, you have a problem, okay? So I don't know how they do. But the reason they get rid of them is the polls.

There has been erosion over time. It wasn't just the debate. The debate was a tipping point. Have you read that book by Gladwell? You should, because it's so instructive of our reality right now and why there's been resistance to change and why I believe that's going to change.

A tipping point, critical mass, whatever metaphor you want or explanation you want. His numbers have been going down, his performance has been going down, his ability to step up in the way they thought he would in the campaign season has been steadily disappointing. And then you had the straw that broke the camel's back or whatever, it really wasn't that because we haven't seen the floodgates open just to keep the metaphors going. But the debate made clear why there's erosion and that spooked them.

And the right jumped on the opportunity and the media jumped on the opportunity to blow this story up is Biden's Situation as precarious as it seems on television and on your phone No, not right now. That's why I'm not dealing with it the way other people are could I be wrong? Yeah, I I be wrong? Yeah, I could be wrong. I don't have any ego about that.

I'm not gonna apologize if I'm wrong. This is my analysis in the moment. He's not going anywhere. They don't have the energy to get him out. The money's drying up. That's bullshit, okay? We haven't even had a reporting thing. Yeah, but anecdotally, we're hearing that the bundlers,

listen, I don't even know that I believe that. I'm talking to people who are very high up in the party on a regular basis. And this is a weird time to raise money. And they already have a lot of money. And it is a hard time when the guys that, you know, being at his most embarrassing, of course it's gonna be harder to raise money.

And yet you saw that Biden raised money after that debate. Why? Because people also saw Trump, not just Biden. And remember, as Joe Biden says, don't compare me to the Almighty, compare me to the alternative. Now, I would say it a little differently. I would say, don't compare Joe Biden

to who Joe Biden was the first time you voted for him. Basically just see him as the anti-Trump. That's what the Democrats are going all in on. Is that enough? I don't know. I don't know that Trump is as scary as the left and far left want you to believe that he is. Okay? I'm not saying he's not a liar. I'm not saying that he doesn't have really

malignant tendencies, like really malicious tendencies. No, he wants to make America great again. I don't believe that. I think he's about his own aggrandizement. Oh, and Biden is better? That's the decision for you to make. Okay? I'm not endorsing the anybody but Trump. Remember, I condemn both of these choices and that's not convenience. That's not convenience. That's contempt. I have contempt for the process. I have disrespect for the party system. I'm angry at it for putting us in the box that we're in because I blame them more than anybody else. Both of them. Both sides. You know why people don't like both sides? Because they're playing the fucking game. That's why. That's why. Oh, don't balance it out.

They're bad. We're good. No, you're not. You're not. Neither of you is good for this country. No, you're not, you're not. Neither of you is good for this country. Neither of your parties is good for this country. That's the truth. And if you need proof, look around. You've created a dynamic of inertia of inaction in Congress. The whole thing is about compromise and making things happen. You've made opposition an operative position.

I'll stop them, I'll stop them. I'll stop them. That's enough. Crazy, just crazy. So if you lose Biden, what's the answer to how and what's the answer to who? Both of these could culminate at the convention if Biden wants to give over his delegates. Why

would he do that? Well, Jim Carville's suggestion is that he laid out in the New York Times and he laid out on my show, which you can see on my Instagram feed or just look it up on the News Nation feed, is enough people are going to tell him he can't win. Is that true? We'll know more very soon. And it's not just that he can't win, it's that other people have a better chance of winning than he, which is a different metric. And I don't know who satisfies that. Jim Carville said to me on the show, we have six or seven people that beat Trump. I don't know that. We'll look at it in the data and we'll study where and why and when and how real it seems and how solid it seems.

And it's still just theoretical. A poll is not practicality. I mean, it just isn't. They're snapshots of a moment in time and things can change. Remember the grab them by the beep video? Trump was dead, right? Everybody was calling for him to get out, right? What happened?

See, moments are different than momentum. Moments are different than momentum. Moments, like what happened to Biden at the debate, are different than momentum, which is that plus not raising money, plus the polls, plus someone better raising their head, plus the people who are the influentials within the party thinking the convention could now be something dynamic, now you have momentum. They are not

there. So as of now, Biden sticks. What can change it? The how and the who. What is the mechanism for getting rid of them? Is it a mini primary in the next 40 days? Is it at the convention? I think that's the better answer. I think it's the more likely answer. Let me put that that way. I don't know if it's the better answer, but I know it's I think it's the more likely answer. And then it's going to come down to independent voters. That's who's going to decide this. There are two variables on the Democratic side. Will the base come out, hence Biden meeting with the black caucus? Remember, black voters, for all of the notions of their disempowerment and their poor yield

in politics, meaning that they don't get what they give to the Democratic Party, that's the criticism right now. That's opportunistically being offered almost exclusively by the right, right? Because they want more of those voters. And I get why a lot of black voters don't think voting for the right, right, because they want more of those voters. And I get why a lot of black voters don't think voting for the right makes sense, given what has been said by its leadership and what has been done and how cities are seen, where there are big population centers for minorities in general. But if not for black, really female 40 and plus years of age voters.

You don't have Joe Biden. They say South Carolina, but for South Carolina, you don't have Biden. But for blacks in South Carolina, you don't have Biden. So that's why he's trying to shore up the CBC and hoping that they go back to their constituencies and it redounds. But I think the independents are just as big a question mark.

The old operating assumption of a third, a third, a third, a third are with you, a third are against you, and you fight for that other third. I don't think that's true anymore. I think it's less than a third. And I think that those people, and I feel like I'm in that group, and I feel like a lot of you are in that group, critical thinkers, independents, not left and right, but reasonable,

look at Biden and are like, God, why are they forcing this choice on me? Why do I have to pick someone who's clearly not up to it versus a guy that I think is too up for it in terms of perverting what matters to me about our country. So I get it. I get it. I get why this is such a hard choice to make. It's because it's been made hard for you because it's a battle to the bottom. That's what it is.

This is the ultimate, which is worse because you are in the land of bad. You cannot look at Donald Trump. Look, I know you have the MAGA crowd and I give them their respect as due, but you cannot look at Trump and say he is the best agent of the policies that you want as a traditional conservative. That's not what this is about. He is about grieving. Look, he said it himself. I am your retribution. What else do you need to hear? It came out right out of Trump's face. That's what I am. Payback. Okay. But is

that going to get you to a better place? Didn't the last time? Yes it did. Life was great. Oh please. Income inequality was very real. We were dumping money into the system. He then had those tax cuts that ballooned deficits. Anybody who tells you otherwise is bullshit. Put $4,000 in every middle class pocket. Bullshit.

And that was as big a piece of inflation as anything except for the pandemic, which Trump absolutely mishandled early on. Now you can justify away why, but it's very interesting that Trump gets forgiveness for what happened during the pandemic that nobody else gets. And few had a bigger hand in laying down and laying out what would wind up controlling our existence. Guy brags about lockdowns, brags about the vaccine. Most of his voters are anti-vaccine and anti-lockdown. Now he'll say you should have never mandated the vaccine. You don't think he would have? Come on. You know better than that. Was it the right move? We still don't know. Nobody's going to review the pandemic because there's no basis for the one party to blame the other. That's why Biden doesn't talk about the pandemic. That's why Trump only

talks about the pandemic in as much as saying, oh yeah, I didn't like the mandates, when he has to. The guy's still getting boosted with the vaccine. I mean, I just wish people could see it as it is. Wanting Biden to be out because you're getting carried away by the momentum of the media is different than that being the best course of action or the most likely course of action. Yes, the media can make things happen. Media got me fired.

Media got my brother to resign. Media got Al Franken to resign. Media has taken out a lot of boldface names, especially in the media. I'm not carrying a grudge. Why? Because I got to own my own reality and accept what has happened and do what I can with the rest of my life. There's no percentage in me feeling any other way. There's no one to go get back. You know, so much becomes clear to you when you start living it yourself. You know, even as Trump recently said, success will be my revenge.

Now, I don't think that's true. I think it's what I'm trying to do. I don't think it's what he's going to try to do. I think what he defines as success is very different than what I do. I think success for him means vengeance. I think his vengeance is gonna be my vengeance. And I don't know that if Trump is president, I wind up still being able to do this.

I don't know. If there's somebody in this race who would take away my ability to say things that they don't like, it's Trump, okay? But Biden sticks for now, why? Not enough momentum, no plan, no how, and no who. If you don't have a process, it's hard to get him out until the convention. And that's going to have to be with his acquiescence, his acceptance of it, his part of it.

It's kind of what Jamie Raskin was referring to when he said he's going to be our keynote speaker, whether he's the nominee or not. A nominee is never the keynote speaker. So I don't know what Raskin was talking about and he is really ducked since then and not wanting to clarify it. Who is the potential to replace him? How would you replace him?

You have to answer those questions as much as, ooh, those poll numbers bad. They will push you to find answers to the questions, but they are not the answers to the questions. Does that make sense? Bad poll numbers doesn't give you the how. It gives you the why, right? Candidates in seats that you need to keep Congress get nervous. It gives gives you your why not your how and not your who. So for now Biden sticks. Does it stay that way? I don't know, but it's going to be decided. Obviously at the convention you can't take him out after it. It's a sprint after that and he's not built for that. That's another thing that goes into the why. Doesn't help you with the

how, but the convention is the best chance to make it happen. That's why I'm going so slow on it now. Because if I'm thinking through the democratic mindset from the voices that I'm hearing there, yeah, I'd say it's 30, 70. 30% say to me, no, it's gonna happen before then. 70% of those who say it's gonna happen, say it's gonna happen at the convention.

Why? It makes more sense. It's better for the democratic party. Oh no, say it's gonna happen at the convention. Why? It makes more sense. It's better for the Democratic party. Oh no, wouldn't be enough time. Please. In this world of media everywhere, all time 24 seven, you could be introduced to somebody and know more than you wanna know about them in four days.

So I don't think time is an issue and I don't think money is an issue because of what we allow in now with dark money. It's about the process and it's about how you do it and who. The presumption is it's got to be Kamala Harris. Is she really a better proposition to beat Trump than Joe Biden? Really? With independence?

With people who aren't sure? With people who are anti-Trump, but not anybody but Trump? Is she your best chance? Or do you have to do it because you're tied to the politics of color? Is that why you picked her in the first place? Is that what black voters want?

Does she satisfy them? You better be figuring this out, especially if you go with her because it's just the easiest, because you're going to get the least heat from the media. Because remember, the media doesn't give a shit who you pick. The media is just going to play on the now, the new and news. Hype what you can and then move on. Who would have ever thought a children's hospital getting bombed in Ukraine would be ignored largely by American media? The new and news. Man, we fatigue fast.

And the Biden story may fatigue as well. If the poll numbers don't push the narrative as much, if the right finds something else to obsess on, or they get tripped up because of something that comes out with Trump, you could just move on. And it's summer, a lot less interest. That's why this hasn't resonated through the ranks with guys like you, as much as might have been expected if it happened in the fall or it happened last in the winter, last season. Why? Because you're paying more attention then. Summertime now. Kids are out of school, you're living your life, you're doing your thing. That's why this is more of an insular obsession right now than it is kind of comprehensive. But that could change.

For now, Biden sticks. For now, it's still the proposition that he is better, no matter how he is, than Trump will ever be because of the team. You better show us the team then. You better change your press secretary then because KJP may check a lot of boxes for you, but she doesn't check the one that matters most, which is being a competent proxy for Biden with the media. She does not command messaging. She's not compelling to them. She gets slapped around on a regular basis. If Biden's theory of the case is, I got a great team around me,

you better do better than that. Who cares about press security? Oh, it matters. It matters. I mean, that is the public face of the administration. That's the one who's going to be taking the questions that Biden doesn't. You need a muscular man or woman in that position who can fight with the media, who has the respect of the media, and who can beat the media when they're coming from a bad place

on a regular basis. So if it's about the team, you better shore up the team. And if it's about the proposition that he's better than Trump any old day, no matter who Trump is, that's a big gamble. But for today, for now, the gamble is still paying off.

With more information and more polling, could come more momentum. So, stay tuned. I'm Chris Cuomo. Thank you very much for suffering my analysis. Do you agree? Do you disagree and why? Let me know. Thank you for subscribing and following. Share as you want. Watch me Thank you for subscribing and following. Share as you want. Watch me on NewsNation, 8P and 11P every weekday night. Check me out on my sub stack if you want this ad free

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