The Chris Cuomo Project - Why Trump’s Pollster John McLaughlin Predicts a 2024 Win

Episode Date: October 8, 2024

John McLaughlin, a key pollster for Donald Trump, joins Chris Cuomo to discuss the strategies and data shaping Trump’s 2024 campaign. McLaughlin breaks down how Trump’s appeal to working-class voters, his outsider status, and his stances on issues like immigration and the economy are influencing his re-election efforts. Cuomo and McLaughlin explore polling methods, shifts in voter demographics, and why certain media narratives miss the mark on Trump’s sustained popularity. If you want to do more and spend less like Uber, 8x8, and Databricks Mosaic - take a free test drive of OCI at oracle dot com slash CCP. That’s oracle dot com slash CCP. Oracle dot com slash CCP. Go to SHOPIFY DOT COM SLASH “chrisc” to upgrade your selling today. That is SHOPIFY DOT COM SLASH “chrisc”. Follow and subscribe to The Chris Cuomo Project on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and YouTube for new episodes every Tuesday and Thursday: https://linktr.ee/cuomoproject Join Chris Ad-Free On Substack: http://thechriscuomoproject.substack.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Take back your free time with PC Express Online Grocery Delivery and Pickup. Get in-store promos, PC Optimum Points, and more free time. And still get groceries. Shop now at pcexpress.ca. You want to know what's behind the rhetoric? Numbers, statistical analysis, polling. Sure, it can be deceptive, but those are the polls that the media is doing. It's the in-house polls that matter.

You want to know what I mean? John McLaughlin is Trump's main pollster. He has agreed to come on the podcast and talk about what they know and what their theory of the case is. So you want to know why Trump focuses on what he does? You're about to learn. I'm Chris Cuomo. Welcome to the Chris Cuomo Project.

John McLaughlin has been doing this a long time. Yes, he works for Republicans almost all the time. But more better. So you can understand why Trump focuses on what he does and what he believes about what is going to determine this election. So here is the guy who knows what Trump knows. So John, as of today, some 30 plus days out, who do you think wins the presidential election and why? I think President Trump wins. Of course, I'm president Trump's pollster, but the fact that I could come on and say that, I mean, I woke up this morning and I got a, of angry people in North Carolina demanding more federal aid right now. So you may have a hurricane Sandy situation.

Remember that, how that helped Barack Obama. He was losing until he provided aid to New Jersey and New York and came in and hug hugged, uh, Chris Christie. And, and, and now you've got a situation, granted it's 35 days out, but I think the media downplayed how bad it was in Georgia and, uh, North Carolina and South Carolina. They could, based on the stories you're hearing now, I mean, this, this storm hit, you know, Friday, Saturday, Sunday.

Now you're hearing that there's, that there were bodies in the trees. They're still recovering bodies and it's, it's really sad. And there's people without, it's very much like Sandy. Remember in Long Island, your brother was the governor and they had to send troopers down there with automatic weapons because there was looting going on. And there was, it was, it was so bad. And, uh, Why hasn't Trump gone down there to maximize it?

He is, he was in Valdosta yesterday with Franklin Graham. And after he went down there and he started a GoFundMe page to help people, and he raised like over a million dollars instantly, but he started to help people. He was there with Franklin Graham. And Kamala Harris, she wasn't back in Washington yet. She was like, they did a stage photo op on the plane

showing her like the plug on her phone wasn't even... Let me ask you something, John. I think you're right in your analysis. I am amused by the double standard. I mean, not from you, you're part of Trump's team, but even in the media, even people like me, we are holding Harris to a standard that Trump doesn't even approach, okay? When it comes to details of his plans, when it comes to media access, he doesn't do a lot of interviews where he takes real questions.

He just fights with the questioner and says that they're part of media bias. Why do you think this is working so well for Trump, creating a standard for Harris that he does not live by? He does answer the questions. I mean, she doesn't have press conferences. By the way, the polls was what's for us. I mean, you know, the polls are good compared to where we were in 2016,

when they were saying there was a Hillary lock. How so? And what do you think is different in the sample now than then? Um, I, in the sample, some of the polls, like the New York Times are probably modeling it better based on past, cause they got burned a lot of poll polls, like the New York times are probably modeling it better based on past cause they got burned a lot of pollsters, not just them, but they got burned where a lot of them were under polling Republicans. And then they say they wouldn't get Trump voters on the phone.

And you really, I mean, for those of us like Democrat pollsters and Republican pollsters that work for campaigns, like, you know, some, I know I work with bipartisan projects all the time. We've got a, we've, we have, we play to win, but we have to be realistic. And you've got voter databases of like, you know, 180 million, 200 million names, you know, I know who I'm calling ahead of time. And I know what the model should look like based on past elections. And you have exit polls from 2016 and you have exit polls from 2020. And granted the size of the turnout has increased from 139 million to a record 160 million in 2020. But the distributions weren't that different.

So what did they get wrong in 2016 and how have you adjusted it to be more accurate now? I'm the same because I was like saying back then it was close in 2016. In fact, I said, by a whopping 78,000 votes out of 139 million, I got it right by saying Trump was gonna win a close race. In 2020, I was saying it was close when others were saying we were getting buried.

I mean, November 6th in 2016, they said Hillary led 51 44. That was NBC. Uh, I'm looking at a poll here where on Halloween 1031, NBC had Biden winning 52 42, Mary won by 4%. But still it's like, it was only 44,000 votes in three states. So John, help people who are watching and listening understand how you deal with that as a numbers guy, that the Democrats, you know, for the last several presidential cycles, win by millions of votes in the popular, but the electoral college has been getting closer

and closer. Right. And, and it's because of the distribution of where the electoral college is based on the number of congressional seats you have, plus the two Senate seats. And, and populations have been moving and the Democrat population has moved to the coasts, uh, so that California and New York will have, and New Jersey will have a heavier democratic, uh, enrollment. And, and to some degree in the center part of the country, Illinois, and the Republicans have been moving to other States so that, you know, the Republican

vote is more competitive in the heartland. And, uh, so if you win a state, if, if Donald Trump wins Texas by, you know, the Republican vote, it's more competitive in the heartland. And, uh, so if you win a state, if, if Donald Trump wins Texas by, you know, by, uh, uh, 5%, well, he's going to get all 30. It's a winner take all, he's going to get all 30 electoral votes. And, uh, and, uh, you know, California, on the other hand, if, you know, if, uh, Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden wins by 30 points and that's the most popular state, they get all 54 electoral votes. But in the States that are competitive, um, you know, Georgia, uh, it may have

been in the beginning of the century, it may have been a more Republican state four to three, but after hurricane Katrina and people started moving around, uh, it was, and, and I blame my, my, my client was governor Nathan deal. And I was like, you keep on making the state such a good place for people to live, there's Democrats moving in. So the last elections were a third Democrat, a third Republican, and a third independent. And, uh, so it's a tossup state and Arizona has become more of a toss up state.

And, uh, you know, Nevada with the influx of Californians who were left is California now, and you have more Hispanic voters. And the interesting thing about Hispanic voters are the newer they are to the country. Once they become citizens, they're up for grabs. It's the ones who've been here longer. Like you have Puerto Ricans who are American citizens, but you know, for New York, like a lot of Puerto Ricans, uh, who moved to New York or Orlando or American citizens, they have Democrat roots. They've been in the Democrat party for a long time. They're harder for us to get.

to get, but, but going back to it, you know, the, the, the simple thing is, by the way, I, you know, I do have like an MBA from quantitative methods from Fordham. Your brother was a year behind me in undergraduate school. And I'm from Fordham law school. So, you know, we're all related family. Yeah. So it's like, we went to the poison Ivy league. So where the judge was for in the show. So it's like, what you have is, is, uh, you know, you have, you have to do a model when you set up the poll, where do I pull the sample from? I have the voter database.

I have past histories of turnout. I know what their parties are in, in past, you know, in, uh, past tournaments, I know what the race age demographics. So you set up a model to pull the sample from, and then you execute the survey and you make sure that you, you know, it's being done properly. And you have to use these days a mix of landlines, very little, more and more cells and text to sell a lot of times. And then, so then you have a second level of quality control when you're executing it. And the third level is when it comes off the computer, did something go wrong? I mean, it's hard to pull in Georgia and North Carolina today because of the hurricane.

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CozyEarth.com slash Chris. Check it out and tell them you heard about them on the podcast. Hook a brother up. John, help people understand what I believe is a misconception about Trump supporters. There are many people on the left who will say, these are bigots and people who are too stupid to realize that he is lying to them or they want to be lied to. What have you learned about the number and the weight of voters who support Trump despite what they know and maybe even feel about him?

Well, the thing is Donald Trump to his credit talks to, I mean, he's this blue collar billionaire who grew up working at construction sites. He owns clubs, but he talks to the workers as much as he does the members, et cetera. Um, there's something about Donald Trump that he's always represented the working people. And, and when he latched on in 2015, now I've known him since 2011 and given him political advice since then. So when he ran in 2015, 2016, I was given him advice and actually went to work after he lost the Wisconsin primary, went to work for him. But, um, there's something about him that connects with working people

and he has a gut instinct. He doesn't need to see my balls, but he he'll say there's something wrong with trade. It needs to be more fair. It's not, it's not, uh, uh, you know, free trade doesn't work. It needs to be fair. He'll there's something with immigration. When he announced, he went right after the immigration issue and, and the immigration issue has been a big issue with particularly working class voters

because, you know, they're the ones that feel if you're bringing in, you know, uh, higher paid workers or lower paid workers from other countries, and some of them may be here illegally versus those who are here legally, they, you know, the working class voters feel at first they don't have, they don't have the room. In fact, in 2016, when he was losing a Hillary Clinton, he said to me, he says, how are we going to win all these polls? How was losing? I said, we're going to win three ways.

One, first of all, Gary Johnson has 10% of our libertarian line of voters who don't like you and Hillary. So we'll make that a force, the issue that they've got to decide. So we'll siphon up from Gary. The second thing is we're going to max out the anti Hillary anti Obama vote. The third thing we were going to do is we're going to bring new voters in because they were like 90 million, 90 million voters who don't usually vote that were available to us in a presidential race and the presidential, there

were people that voted eight and 10, but didn't vote for Romney and 12. They walked away from the election and they were basically, we had polls of them. They were working class voters. They made about $60,000 a year in the household. They were mostly women, but they were diverse. It wasn't just white voters. It was African-Americans and Hispanic voters. And they were basically from the rust belt and the sun belt from the

heartland of the country. And I said, we're going to bring out new voters. And when those casual voters who they now call low propensity voters, when they come in to vote, because you're talking about things they care about, because whether it's trade immigration, they're talking about economic survival as well. So drill down on that about what he's talking about versus how he's talking about. Because to the cognoscenti in the media, the sins of lying, of the histrionics, of the meanness is the premium.

And so Trump checks all those boxes of political sins and should be discounted. What is the translation to the voters that the media is missing? By the way, there's a lot of what you're talking about. There's a lot of meanness in politics on both sides today. But he distinguishes himself. I've never had anybody weaponize me as a commodity the way Trump did.

He does more. There's things that get said about him that are exaggerations that don't like, like you have, uh, um, Snopes, they write about, uh, this thing when they fact check what he said in Charlottesville and they say, you know, he was like saying that there were good people on the, on one side, he was like, he was talking about both sides, his quotes got, his quotes got twisted into this. You're right.

Biden, you're riding you stack to an end. You're right. Biden used that to announce. You're right. Hold on. Let's just make sure everybody understands this because nobody does the homework anymore. The Charlottesville thing, Trump in context was talking about the dispute over monuments. And he said, look, there are good people on both sides of that debate. Fair. It got conflated through his own awkwardness.

He is still responsible for screwing it up by allowing himself to be taken out of context by what he was talking about. But that is also one example. Most of the things, and I would say overwhelmingly, he is guilty of saying things that are untrue and mean in a way that we're not used to in politics. I don't argue that point. My point is, despite that, he has voters who I am friends with, who do not talk like him,

who do not like the way he talks, except that he messes with the establishment, and they don't live like him, but they are voting for him. Why? I think it's a reflection of who we are. Sometimes leaders are ahead of the curve of where, like, like when we talk about trade and immigration, he was ahead of the curve and I was a gut. But it's, it's where American society is. Like at the time when I started in polling, I worked for Arthur Finkelstein and he used to work, he was, when he was well known in New York and around the country and he used to work for Arthur Finkelstein and he used to work. He was when he was well known in New York and around the country. And he used to work for Reagan.

He was one of Reagan's pollsters. So I've, I was a young guy going to the white house meeting with Dever and him. It was, it was a great thing, but Reagan was made for his age that he could look at his age of politics, that he could look in a teleprompter and do a speech like nobody else when he, when he, whether it was the speech he did in 64 for Goldwater, whether we did is addressed the debate with Jimmy Carter, the address, his, his overall office addresses to the country. When he looked in a teleprompter, it was a perfect, it was a perfect speech.

It was, he was trained for it. He could communicate with that. Um, later on, I got to work for Arnold Schwarzenegger. Arnold Schwarzenegger kind of fit when he ran in the recall election for governor. He was a, he was an action adventure hero. He kind of fit California. He w w w would host rallies, blow up Volkswagen's. He would, he would just, he would basically tell them, you know, that, that, uh, you

know, he, he could, you know, he, he could sum it up about what he was going to do as governor that was perfect for that time. You know, Donald Trump had the highest rate of reality TV show and we live in an, in an age still of reality TV, where we kind of encourage this both sides of the media. I mean, when you look at it used to be, you know, you put on CNN and it would be Reality TV where we kind of encourage this both sides in the media I mean when you look at it used to be you know You put on CNN and it would be crossfire and you'd have Bob Novak and you'd have a liberal on the other side You'd have there were it was Hannity and Combs on Fox

There was some sort of balance to it that the two sides would go to certain shows or certain Communication platforms and they would hear both sides that the two sides would go to certain shows or certain communication platforms and they would hear both sides. Someplace along the line over the last decade, even before Trump decided to run for president, it got, they pulled apart. Where the two sides went to their, went to their corners. And Trump is the leader of one coalition

and Barack Obama started as the leader of another coalition that he, that, you know, basically Hillary and Biden got, but they're about, they're in equilibrium. It's like these two, it's like watching an earthquake with tectonic plates. How is Obama a counterbalance to Trump? How does, I mean, Obama had his own way, but I'm talking about his voter coalition. And what's interesting to me is, Trump is now pulling from that coalition. That's why they threw Joe Biden overboard.

Was because all of a sudden it's like, well, Trump's winning with African-American, or getting more. We got eight, 12. How many African-Americans do you think are gonna vote for Trump? I'll bet you dinner right now. Let's pick it over on you. Okay. 15, 20%.

And I'll set it. I'll set it at 14 and I'll take the under. It's a push at 14. You take the over. Sure. All right. I'm going to take that over. Done. And then in Hispanic voters, he got, he went up, he got 32% last time. He's going to get more than 32% this time. Yeah, I don't, that I can't bet you on because people don't understand the Latino vote. They also don't understand the Latin. They don't understand the demographic superiority of them as we're still talking about black voters and I have no problem with that, but we're over weighting their relevance versus Hispanic voters or whatever you want to call them. Hispanic isn't even fair anymore because they're not from Hispaniola. Latino isn't fair anymore.

So we have to understand that demographic in a way for whatever reason we haven't decided to do yet. But within the number is incredible diversity in a way you do not have in black voters. And frankly, even in white voters, you have diversity of opinion. You take a Cuban and you take a Mexican and you have very different political precepts and predilections when it comes to politics.

So I can't mess with you on Latinos because I do believe Trump has strength there. The conservative movement has strength that will only grow, I think, in the near term. Nope, you're right. And, uh, and, and we're taking advantage of that. And when you look at younger voters, he's now doing better with younger voters because they were, a lot of them were like really upset during COVID. And they come out of college or come out of high school and they think they're

going to be able to buy a car they can't afford. How does Trump win people who are pissed about COVID? This is another thing I don't understand with Bobby backing him. Bobby believes that the vaccine is poison and that it didn't help. I think that is demonstrably false. I think we need a review of the pandemic. I don't think we know about how the vaccine has affected people after the first couple of iterations of the pandemic. I don't think we know about how the vaccine has affected people after the first couple of iterations of the virus. And I think that people are willfully ignorant about it in power.

But Trump created the vaccine. It is his signature achievement during the pandemic. How does he get Bobby's support? And how does Trump tell people that the pandemic was a disaster when he was in charge of it? Well, I'm talking about the younger voters right now. They're not looking back. They're not saying it happened to them. And what they're looking ahead to is they want a better future. They want to bounce, want to bounce into some sort of recovery that things are better instead of being whacked with inflation, they're being whacked with

the not getting the high paying jobs that they're looking for. And if, and, uh, and, and they're, you know, they basically, they're looking for less government and more freedom. So Trump accommodates that with them. I mean, they'd rather go back to a time where they have lower inflation and they could afford things, whether it's a car rent or all. You can't a mortgage now, a mortgage payment on a home is double what it was when Trump was president because of interest rates.

I mean, that's just and so, so, so the younger voters are looking back to him and saying, you know, that that was a better future. And they'd like to go back to that, that sense of optimism, that sense of. And also the other thing, too, is even as we speak, you've got you've got things going on in the world right now, where if you're a male and you're between 18 and 26, and they're telling you, you're going to have to register again for the draft. You're not really thrilled with that.

You want, you want the overall, always just succeed. Well, who believes that? We're not going to have a draft. There's no will in America to put boots on the ground anywhere. They're not hitting their recruiting rate. And that's why Trump, who was getting us out of those conflicts. I don't know how he's going to do that, by the way. I, you guys got to be careful on that cell.

I don't know how you can see what's happening in Lebanon is ending anytime soon, unless Bibi decides it does. And Trump is not in the Bibi pushback business. Well, in the meantime, I, since I pulled for both of them at the same time, and I pulled for BB over in Israel, he doesn't need a poll right now. He needs generals. So, uh, they're doing, they're doing, what he's doing is he's doing, I mean, the Israelis support him because you have friends, we all, you're from New York.

You gotta have friends in Israel. Yeah. I mean, you're talking to your friends, they're going to a bomb shelter like 10 times in the middle of the night, nowhere to live. And- None of them wanted Bibi in power because of what was happening before this,

and everybody believes there, I mean, every poll I see is better than six and 10, that B BB is no Shimon Perez, no gold in my ear, obviously will never see another Ben Gurion, but he is not a peace prophet. This guy likes to mix it up and he's loving what happens right now. I don't know if he loves it as much as he wants to keep them secure. I think, you know, I pulled from through the last election in 22.

I haven't been over there and have, you know, last time I saw him, I said, you're going to win. I got to go back and help this guy in New York, try and become governor. He's in a close race. Nice Jewish guy names. So, so Lee, so I had to go back and help Lee and I left. And usually I'd stay with BB through election day, but he was, he was going to win and it was, it was, it was clear that his coalition had the majority and Israel has

changed because of the security anxiety. I mean, they just, I mean, I mean, it's like, and the bad part is without Trump there and Iran getting billions of dollars from their oil revenues again, that they, they use on terror. I mean, Iran is just a- But terror is cheap, John. I agree with your analysis. Terror is cheap from a financial perspective.

You do have to own, and if Trump wins, he will have to deal with this. Getting out of the deal took the only eyes that we had on Iran out of the equation, and they have been doing nothing but sowing chaos during his administration and this one. And he's got good bad news if he's president.

The bad news is Iran is going to be a problem. The good news is the chance that we don't get hit at home is very small. And everybody is going to freak out again, and we're all going to get on the same page of chasing down the brown guys with the beards. And Trump will benefit from that. So will Harris if she's president. There'll be no internecine strife as soon as someone from the outside comes after us. But the fact that it hasn't happened yet is surprising.

The idea that it won't happen, given what's happened in the region, is almost, you know, ridiculous. Well, they've had Iran, I mean, the bad part is they've had a foul on Trump since he left office because of Solomon. And it's like, that's, that's coming out now pretty clear, but we knew two years ago when Trump was getting invited to speak at things in Europe and we couldn't send them because of Iran and, uh, uh, and Iran, it's just the, the, the problem with the rain is, like you said, we would have eyes on the deal. They wouldn't allow Americans then to inspect their place.

But it was the only thing you had. Now you have nothing and I don't know how you stop them, especially when Trump, I don't believe he's wrong about this, by the way. It is hard to be someone who covered the war on terror. I was there. I've been to Pakistan, I've been to Iraq, I've been to Afghanistan, I've been all these places more than once. And we really got very little for it

and everything is back in place. He is not wrong in that analysis, but it also straps him in, in terms of I'm not gonna put people on the ground. You know, what does that do to his ability to make things stop? You can't embargo your way. You can't sanction your way out of this.

Well, the key thing was the sanctions were working because, you know, when they didn't have money, they couldn't do this stuff and the sanctions were working. And, you know, I don't know where it's going to go right now, but it's a, it's a, it's a really bad situation when they threaten to attack Israel. Even as we speak right now, and really we're not going to let Israel do what they want right now. Oh, 100%. And really, we're not gonna let Israel do what they wanna do, just like in 1973. I mean, the real solution,

not to give too much credit to humanity, is fight it out and whoever wins, wins. I mean, that's the history of humanity. Fight it out, whoever wins, wins. That's why America exists. You know, you fight it out, whoever wins, wins. We don't let Israel do that. We didn't let them do it in 73 when they got behind Egypt and when marching towards Cairo, you know, Kissinger stopped them and it was probably a mistake.

And Israel probably with Bibi being a student of that time, won't allow it again if he decides to go all in. So I see that situation is only getting worse on Trump's watch or Harris's watch. go all in. So I, I see that situation is only getting worse on Trump's watch or Harris's watch. Well, hopefully, hopefully, uh, hopefully something will be done now so that it doesn't get worse, but we'll see. But, but in the meantime, it's a very difficult, I'm not disagreeing with you because I mean, Israel, you know, it's a small country surrounded by a lot of

people that it's like being in England in World War II. Well, but Hezbollah's gotta go. Hamas has to go, but they know it's like getting rid of crime, okay? Like you're gonna have a hard time eradicating it. They know they did as much harm as good in terms of the next generation of resistance to them on that southern border.

They know they need to get out of the business of controlling that region and having the Arabs take responsibility for their own. But Hezbollah is a different proposition. That is a well-funded, well-organized, significant fighting force that has the protection of a real sovereign in Lebanon and eco-respect in the region. So they have to take them out in a way they didn't do in 2008 or 2010 or whatever it was.

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Every month, you get amazing free gifts with your order. Why? Because Daily Dose, D-O-S-E, is trying to grow their business, and they're doing it the right way for the right reasons. Check it out. Back home to something that is more accessible to people. I am surprised that the southern border is resonating in polls the way we see it. You and I have never seen that before. It's interesting.

Reproductive rights is not showing up as a top five preference in polls, and yet I have a sneaking suspicion that as it was in the midterms, it may matter to women as the first class of people who've had a right taken from them in the modern era. What do you think on that issue? Well, going back to your point about immigration, what's different about that is the whole country has to deal with it. Right. Or they think they do.

Yeah. Because I mean, you're not safe from immigrant, illegal immigrants that are gang members or criminals. I mean, Harris, when she went to the board on Friday, somebody in the Biden administration decided to release how many known criminals are in the country where they are murderers, rapists. It's only tens of thousands of people. Look, you're winning that narrative.

There's no question about it. I don't agree with the narrative. I think that our crime problem is not about illegal entrance. It's about systemic problems we have all over the country, but it doesn't matter. You're winning the narrative. And we see it in the polls and we see it resonating in the coverage of the same.

What about reproductive rights? How concerned are you as a numbers guy that single women and some married women may look at their husbands and say, you're not gonna tell me to vote against my own body, are you? Well, that's what, you know, the thing about it, the Democrats are running campaigns saying that the Republicans are extremists and they're going to ban it for everybody, et cetera, like that national abortion ban.

And, and the Iraq, and, and what's again, there's things being said that aren't necessarily true. I mean, president Trump has always been let the states decide. So if you live in certain states, it's not going to change the laws in New York. It's not going to change the laws in California or Illinois or other, other states and voters have actually had referendums on. So, so in some states it's going to be determined other states it's not. Well, two things.

One, Trump has not always been let the states decide. He was in favor of choice and reproductive rights. And then he was against Roe v. Wade because that is the movement of his party. And now he's telling people, and I hope you didn't give him this suggestion because I've been saying, who gave him this idea? Who told Trump to say everybody wanted Roe v. Wade gone and all women wanted it to go back to the States. Who told him to say that?

No one tells him what to say. Why aren't you telling him to stop saying that? And, and no one tells him what to say, but he gets advice from a lot of people on both sides. I mean, again, well, you got to find who told him to say that and kick him in the balls. Well, the, uh, the, uh, the thing, the thing about president Trump is he's, his position since he, since he got elected has been actually consistent.

He was going to be, what he said about his, his, uh, his personal views on it, that it, that he supports the exceptions that he, you know, he's, uh, that he definitely wanted the States to decide. And that's what this judges did. And that's where we are. And that's where, and at some level, you know, the share part is when he tries to talk about, cause he's a businessman. He's not, he's not a politician by a career politician.

He's not somebody who says, tell me what the polls say. Then I'll let you know what I think. He's the opposite. He let you know what he thinks. And he's you know, he he got attacked from both sides when he says he tried to build some consensus. And he and he said that, you know, during the primaries, et cetera, and during some of these campaign town halls and, uh, you know, people just, people just, there is no consensus right now. Certain states have consensus. Well, there's every time you do a number,

national number, it's not even close in terms of people who support reproductive rights versus those who don't. It's at least 60-40 every time out. Actually, it depends, you know, and there are... What's different is back in the 90s, when you asked if you were pro-choice or pro-life, the pro-choice people were like five to three, the majority. Then you got the sonogram generation coming in. Right.

And all of a sudden, it's like pro-life, pro-choice is about even, and it's been about even for a decade or so, but the interesting part about that is there's pro-lifers that will allow abortion up to a certain point and, and there's pro-choicers who have banned abortion, like certainly late term, partial birth abortions, et cetera. Which don't exist, by the way. Excuse me. You guys have done well on that narrative also.

The late term abortion thing is a boogeyman. It does not exist. It doesn't exist. They happen like almost never. And when they do, it's because someone's going to die if they don't happen. It's not like, you know, Trump says they're born and then you want to kill them. That's called homicide. But then you get certain people that say, you know, I mean, Governor Northam gave us

a quote that we could use about letting a baby die. And so, you know, so there are, there are instances where there is, there are partial birth, there are some bad stories about partial birth abortion and it's allowed. And some of the rules about the reason to have it a pretty, you know, leaning, but you know what the country's got to build some sort of consensus and come to it. And, and what I'm just getting at is that the pro life side has moved into a more competitive position because of the sonogram generation, because of people that are saying, okay, you know, when you see a baby can survive

without medical help or with, you know, a lot of people will tell you stories about- See, but that's about when, not if. And I'm with you. I'm with you on the narrative argument, but to me, it doesn't vitiate the rights argument, which is I get how people can change their opinions about when I should be able to do what I want to do.

That's called a preference. That's called an opinion. But it's still supposed to be or not supposed to be my choice. And I think if it is defined as who has the right, I think you guys lose all day long. And I think that's why it keeps bubbling up. The idea is to win. Yeah, you figure that out any way you want. God forbid you actually employ scientists and vet the viability standard of Roe v. Wade and figure out where they got it from and figure out

when. But in terms of if, I think you lose on that with women and men about whether there should be a right to make the choice over your own body. Cause now IVF gets sweeped up in it. Now you're talking about my rights. So you guys are going to decide how I can start a family if either my wife or I can't conceive the normal way you're going to get a say in how I family plan. No thank you. The vast majority, including president Trump is in favor of IVF.

They're in favor of more life, more babies. And so that's kind of, you know, whatever legal things, and again, I'm not an expert on this, as you can tell. You went to law school, I did. So it's like, so that one, the vast majority of the country's in favor of- Do you think it matters in the election or no?

Reproductive rights, we're not seeing it in the preference polls. We keep hearing about it. We're told it mattered in the election or no? Reproductive rights, we're not seeing it in the preference polls. We keep hearing about it. We're told it mattered in the midterms. Do you think that that is something or do you think there's something else that outweighs it? It's in there, but it's being offset by people who think that the baby has a right to live.

So it's like they haven't developed a consensus yet and there's polls in the electorate that are pushing both, both sides and that's why you don't have, no one can support a national band because there is no consensus for it. So, but getting at it is, is it affecting the polls? Yes. In terms of, uh, certain segments of voters are going to, you know, that they're, they're hearing this and they're listening and they're going to, that's going to be.

You know, they're deciding factor, but the difference is that you're saying about most voters. You're saying yes. When you ask them, what's the biggest, biggest issue in the country right now is the economy, particularly inflation cost alert. It's the economy, particularly inflation, cost alert. When you ask people about what's next, they'll tell you it's immigration, which is really a security thing that has to do with crime. So it relates to crime. And by the way, when you talk about,

you see the stories in New York where they say, okay, three quarters of the arrests in Manhattan have to do with the illegal immigrants. I don't know. You know, those are my statistics. We know why that is. That's because the cops have been told not to do their jobs anymore because prosecutors aren't trying anything.

The only thing they're allowed to arrest is illegal entrance and migrants who are doing things because these prosecutors locally, until it came to Trump, decided to not try any cases anymore because of these stupid pendular swings we have in our society. Let me ask you this before I let you go. And so the audience knows, I'm a big fan of McLaughlin. I love having him on the show at News Nation. I believe he's a fair broker. And I love the understanding of the numbers

because numbers analysis drives our politics as much as anything else. The idea of Harris winning the popular vote, but that being not enough, is it true that Democrats need to win the popular vote by something like three or four points outside the margin of error to win the electoral college and presidential elections in the modern era?

Is that still true in your opinion? I'm not sure, but that's what, by the way, from the Trump campaign perspective, we want to win a majority. We're running like Trump campaign perspective, we want to win a majority. We're running like we're behind and we want to win a majority of the popular vote. I mean, president Bush did it when he got George W. Bush got it 51%.

He's the last Republican to do it. It's, it's within, when you look at a New York times poll and has this tide, when you look at a Quinnipiac poll has this tide, they don't usually like years ago, you were arguing about this and I was getting killed. But the social media like we now Trump doesn't win. I'm going to be, I won't be as good a pollster, but, but right now the polls are close. You know, the average of the real clear politics polls they have, it's like just over a point. And I would argue that that's good for us because in the battleground states,

we're ahead of most of them. And right now, the Real Clear Politics, no toss up average, but it's close, all within the margin of error. It's, they've got us at 286, we need 270. So if the grievance is so widespread culturally, but more specifically economically, why is it so close? Is that just because Trump is such an imperfect agent of that animus?

No, I'd argue that we're up against he's an outsider. Not anymore. He was a sitting president. No, no, no, he's still an outsider. Still an outsider. Still an outsider. They don't like him. When you look at the media coverage, you know, it's like, you know, the nonpartisan media research center, you got like when Harris came out of the box, you got 84% positive coverage. We got 89% negative coverage.

But how much of that, John, do you, and I get that you can't make them be any different. He asks for the coverage he gets. John, he talks so much shit all the time that he's begging to get attacked. But that's, he doesn't operate by political norms. The guy's a businessman. He's an outsider. He's, it was, I tell you, and when he won, I got a call from two days before Christmas in 2016 and he called to say thank you.

And I realized what he was calling about. I just had a poll that said he had the first time he had a positive rating. Cause when it was Hillary and him, both of them had negative rates. So he had a positive rating and he says, John, I just called to say thank you. It was a, it was a huge win. I said, no, not really. It was 78,000 votes out of 139 million across three states. And he says, yeah, but it was a big electoral victory.

And I said, no, I said. Barack Obama had more electoral votes and I heard the silence on the phone. And I, and I said to him, you know what it was? It was a historic Victor. It was a huge win, uh, in that you were able to beat the Republican establishment and then go on and beat the Washington establishment. And no one's done that in history since maybe Andrew Jackson. And, and, uh, and I said, but that was historic.

I mean, he's, he's an anti-establishment candidate and he'd beat the party establishment that he's an anti-establishment candidate and he beat the party establishment that he's now taking over and he's beaten the Washington establishment and he may build a coalition that could portend a realignment because sometimes leaders get in front of where the population's headed anyway. Yeah, but are you worried at all about what that direction is and that he keeps bashing all of the necessary institutions of this democracy?

Not that they're not imperfect. Of course they are. But that he is beating on the country in a way that I've never seen. Look, even your guy's slogan on the hat next to you, make America great again, is inherently a suggestion that we are not a great country. He calls us a failing nation all the time. Are you worried at all that he'll be a victim of his own success and people will want to destroy the country?

That was Reagan's slogan in 80. It was, let's make America great again. He took the let's out. But then going back to the point about Jackson. He does not see us as a shining city on a hill, by the way. By the way, he sees us as a great country. He is very patriotic. It would be nice if he said it.

And I will tell you though, but the good thing then when I told him about Andrew Jackson, when I went into the Oval Office, he had his portrait next to his desk. Yeah. I'm just glad I didn't tell him that he won two duels. But the other part of that, the other part of that, that that's, that's more serious is the country needs reform for four years now you've had many Americans for most of this decade or the last over a decade have thought the country has been on the wrong track. Yes.

And I think Washington has grown so out of touch. Yes. And that's why when you were talking about Bobby Kennedy, a reformer from the left has hooked up with a reformer from the right in Trump. And it's like when all of a sudden the left and the right populace get together, there's something really wrong that the ruling class has an address. The elites in this country have it. I don't disagree with that.

I don't disagree with that. And that is the fundamental proposition of News Nation. Look, I don't know if I wind up being there long term or not. Who knows in this crazy business. But that is the proposition of the place, is that everybody's picking sides. Nobody's picking your side of just hashing out what matters, having voices on. You may like it, you may not. We'll test what we can.

You can figure out what we can, and let's have a conversation about it. And that's why it's the only place that's growing. It's not because, you know, of some brand exercise, nobody even knows what NewsNation is. Like two out of three people who see me, John, still say, hey, I miss you on TV. But that's the proposition that people in power aren't connecting to the population. Do you see that?

Yeah, and that's why I think Trump is at the edge of a great reform movement. And Bobby Kennedy is gonna be a part of it. Tulsi Gabbard is gonna be a part of it. There's going to be voices that have felt alienated, disaffected, that all of a sudden, if Trump wins, the majority of the country will feel like they have a moment to reform Washington, to make a significant change. But the bare board about that is the elites that control the government and the institutions

now that are out of touch. I mean, think of all the federal workers that still have not returned to the office from COVID. I mean, there's still hundreds of thousands of them out there, not in the office. And you know, some place there's a guy who's a working taxpayer, asked to go to work every day, man or woman saying, I got to go to work, they need to go to work. And you are comfortable backing Donald Trump and you believe that if he were to be elected again,

he would not just be an agent of chaos and you're not afraid that he's going to try to unify power in the executive and become a despot as Project 2025 suggests? Absolutely not. In fact, like he said, I believe him. He hasn't read it. And, but I will say, I don't think he's read the books he's written.

Go ahead. He has read it. There is an America first policy Institute. It's filled with people from his administration, responsible people like Linda McMahon did a great job at SBA. You have Larry Kudlow was his economic advisor. They're real and they put out policies and programs. That's how we won the primary. So handling even better than

Reagan and they actually that's when you want to know what he's going to do, look at their policies and he, those are the policies he supports and he tells them what he wants to do. Almost half of what's on the website for his policies are also in Project 2025. Now, I don't think it's a boogeyman. I don't give it the weight that the left wants you to. But I'm just saying, it's not like he may not have read it, but somebody did because they copied it on his website.

Yeah, but the good parts of that, that are in the Republican platform that he personally went through and he personally made the cuts and changes to, and, and, uh, uh, what he's dictated through the American policy, American first policy Institute, those things he wants to do. And, uh, so now I think, I think there's a serious, there's a serious movement for reform in the country. And they've got a choice between Carol Harris who represents more of the same. She represents, you know, same policies as Biden pretty much, maybe even a little more radical.

But again, that's what the elites are investing in versus this populist movement that Trump has come to lead. And, uh, you know, that's what, that's what we do. And we'd have a moment to really make some serious reform changes in the federal government. What do you think he does if you call him on the day after the election and say, that's it, we lost. Do you think he'll accept it? If it was, he said he'll accept the election if it's a fair and honest election.

But what does that mean? I mean, that's what the lawyers are hashing out every day. Even if we're 35 days out, there's court decisions and battles going on around the country where, for example, the Republicans don't want non-citizens to vote and they want to make sure that... But how many non-citizens vote? What can you show me that shows ever any kind of significant number of wrong voters voting in a way that had any impact on any election? See, you're qualified that by saying significant. Yeah, because it matters.

Otherwise, you're just playing at something. Of course, it's an imperfect process, but are you going to find me 300 out of 50 billion ballots? But then why do the Democrats want to sue Alabama? Because they don't want to have non-citizens on the rolls illegal immigrants on the rolls. I Don't know why the federal they're not suing to have illegal. You are very smart guy, John, by the way I like it because you say with a smile on your face With school they are they are suing for what Alabama wants to do in vetting voter rolls. They are not suing to allow illegal voters.

They're suing to not allow you to suppress votes. By the way, we don't suppress votes. And that's what I think some of these polls that had Trump behind try to do. But by the way, having elected a governor in Alabama in a close election and experienced what it was like when we were calling around results for the Republican, we got a Democrat commissioner and he thought we were the Democrat. And we said, what's the vote count there? And he said, how much do you need?

So I don't know. Look, it's an imperfect process. Everybody knows that, but I don't think that that's a good answer. I don't think that if he thinks it's fair, he'll accept it. Hey, it's not what Clinton did. That's not what Gore did, okay? They had a Supreme Court decision

that had to come in and intercede in that 2000 election, which should have never happened. And he wound up having to suck it up. He wasn't happy about it. If that had been Trump, who knows what would have happened to us? Don't you think that it's incumbent upon you guys around them to not just use the excuse or explanation

that nobody tells them what to say. And that someone has to say, hey, you're president of the United States now, or you want to be. And you got to respect what happens here because otherwise everybody loses just because you did. I, I think we're all working for an honest and fair election. And if we have an honest fair election, either side will accept.

By the way, yes, sir. If we had voter ID, like a lot of other countries in every state, I don't think you'd have a, you know, I don't think you'd have this problem. Help me understand something. I get voter ID. I get the arguments on both sides. I think that the more satisfying side is your side. Why is it that the same people who want voter identification don't want people to be able to register to vote

when they get a driver's license at the DMV? Because sometimes you don't check if they're sitting. You have green light laws now that people who are here illegally get driver's licenses. You don't think that this is a boogeyman issue that illegal voters are going to decide the election? No, we've got too many illegal immigrants in the country right now. Even if all of the illegal immigrants, every single one of them, voted. So let's put it at 15 million. I know the official number is somewhere around 10. Let's go up 50%. 15 million. You have 170 million voters.

This is a boogeyman issue. I can't poll illegal immigrants, so I don't know where to start. But I'm saying if all of them voted against him, it's 15 million people that are mostly in the most populated states. How is this relevant? Well, no, it's not true anymore. It's like that's not true anymore. But I do. But you know, we should have voter ID

and we should have a fair and honest election. But then you would have to make sure that every eligible voter had an ID. And that's where it falls short, is that if you leave it on the person, you do wind up having a suppressive environment because we both know there are a lot of poor people who don't drive and who don't want to sign up. They'll give you forms of ID. Every other country in the world has a form of ID. If you want Georgia, they change their laws that if you need ID, they'll give it to you.

But it's like... It can increase the number of voters. That's all I'm saying. It can only decrease the number of voters. And you got to ask why one party would want that, no? Well only if it's free and honest and fair and makes an honest election. Does it? Every other free and fair democracy in the world has voter rights.

The only problem with the argument is we, and this has been studied, litigated, there's tons of money and grants that goes around to find it. They have examined billions of ballots and you always have de minimis returns on the impact of illegal voting. It's not our problem. It's legal voting that's the problem. So we should we should have voter ID in every state. But that I don't think that that's what I don't think that that's what the concern is. I think the concern should be that in the best country in the

world, you're lucky if you get to 60% of registered voters voting, let alone eligible ones. That's really the concern is you don't have participation. I think we'll be there. I think you'll, I mean, it was a record last time. I think we're headed for another record this time. I hope so because participation, participation is the key. The more votes, the more better. John McLaughlin, I love talking to you. Thank you very much for making the case and to be continued. Interesting conversation, right? I don't agree with a lot of the narratives that they're putting out, but that doesn't

mean that they're not winning the narrative battle. Why? Because that's what politics is about. Who tells the more compelling story? Facts be damned, facts be exaggerated or facts be known. And that's why I want you to know the game that's being played and how you can figure out to be a critical thinker, to be an independent and to expose the game so you don't be played for a sucker. I'm Chris Cuomo, thank you for subscribing and following here at The Chris Cuomo Project.

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even if I've failed with my own. Good proposition, right? So let's get after it.