The Compound and Friends - A Very Compound Christmas

Episode Date: December 23, 2021

On this week's episode of The Compound & Friends, Michael Batnick, Doug Boneparth, Jenn Ablan, and Downtown Josh Brown discuss: favorites of 2021, Investopedia Terms of the Year, biggest trends in asset management, the great resignation, Omicron, holiday traditions, and much more! Thanks to our sponsor Cadre! Invest in a portfolio of professionally-curated commercial real estate in minutes, check out: http://go.cadre.com/compound Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here: https://ritholtzwealth.com/disclosures/ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

You look ridiculous. Edit it away. Yeah. Wait, let me see how bad, though. Oh, funny ridiculous. So I came here for the Instagrams. Look. Stop.

I can't. Hi, Doug. Oh, my God. Okay. Now, why? Okay, first of all, why would you guys pair me? It's already Josh Brown, right? Josh Brown.

Michael Batnick. Why would you pair me with the most famous Josh Brown, right? Josh Brown, Michael Batnick. Why would you pair me with the most famous guy on Twitter right now? I didn't realize that he's the most famous guy on Twitter. Well, you're famous, so I call you the Drake of Twitter. Okay. I like it. Do you like it?

I've got an M&M, but I'll take Drake. Well, Drake is much more accurate. Drake is Jewish. I'm standing in the shadow of him. Who's Doug? But that's not wild. Doug is Jewish. I'm standing in the shadow of him. Yeah, I know. Who's Doug? But that's not why. Who's Doug? No, I know. I mean, Drake. Doug is the Doug of Twitter. You know, people are jealous of him.

He's got a lot of attention. Doug is like the Will Smith of Twitter. So good to meet you. Because I feel like your humor is very family friendly. Like funny, corny, doesn't curse. That's right. It's funny how I don't do that. So I'm going to say you're like Will Smith.

And I'll take Drake. That's cool. I like that, I feel like do that. So I'm going to say you're like Will Smith. And I'll take Drake. That's cool. I like that, I feel like. I'm just following this guy. Well, have you heard his lyrics? Whose? Doug's. Oh, yeah.

Doug's lyrics? I have not heard Doug's lyrics. I have not heard Doug's lyrics. Doug will freestyle when he gets back. Let's hope not. All right. So the format of the show is we just kind of like start talking and then all of a sudden the show starts. But like.

Yeah. It's very raw in the beginning. It's very raw. I love it. Yeah. Because. It's very us. When you listen to other podcasts, they're heavily edited.

They're too highly produced. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, John and Duncan don't do anything. It's perfect. I was about to say, the code of is actually surprisingly cut off. But can I ask, who picked the song? Oh, that's me. Yeah, that's good.

It's a good song, right? Yeah. Hopefully, Doug doesn't have any words to it. People want to know what the song is, and Josh won't tell. And it's driving people crazy. People are asking constantly what the songs are. It's Kenny J. We'll never tell.

See, he's really cool. I love how the hair is battling with it. I purposely did it. Wait, can I take a picture? It looks pretty good. Unbelievable, Doug. Look at this. It's side profile.

Wait, I gotta get one one of both, you guys. What's on this to you, Doug? Unbelievable. Way too adorable. All right. Sorry I'm late, guys. Any number of things could have derailed what I just did. Headphones.

Oh, okay. And the thing with the headphones is they will let you know if you're getting too far away from the mic because you'll hear your own voice. Oh, I was wondering what this was for. All right, Jen, we're going to get your official title. It's U.S. Assistant Managing Editor. All right. That's a boss of Financial Times. He's the boss.

So who is Peter Spiegel? Peter Spiegel is my boss, and he is the U.S. managing editor. And believe it or not, Peter is the first American to run the U.S. operations. Oh, so he's been a Brit? Yeah. Okay. All right. How did he get that gig? So Peter Spiegel broke a lot of news on the Greek crisis, and he's well-versed on politics. on the Greek crisis and he's well versed on politics. He's a political junkie

and he's just done really well at the FT. Okay. Alright. How you doing? You all set? I'm good. Yeah? I'm good to go. When's your NFT dropping? The collection will be January. The whole collection? There's like 20 of them. I'm not doing like

5,000. Okay. Scarce. Sounds real scarce. They look rare. What are they NFTs of? Take one guess, you'll nail it. Pictures of your hair? That's actually a really good... Coffee. There you go. Like coffee beans? Yeah, but

I think the whole notion of like large PFEP collections is like done like that that we're so so beyond that right now like the profile picture and yeah like oh 10 000 yeah yeah i think i think we're very far past that with like what people are building so what do they want now i mean they want utility yeah they want they want utility they want play to earn they want it actually serving a purpose in their life. And first to crack that kind of code. I mean, you're seeing big corporations, you know, Adidas and Nike.

Oh, so I can't just come up with an animal and have a cartoon and show pictures of it and be a billionaire? If you have a really strong network, you can shill, you know, 10,000 animals and sell out. Is it generative? Is it what? Generative. Yeah, it's not going to. I mean. You know what?

You know what phrase I hate? You guys are f***ing kidding yourself. You know what phrase I hate? You guys are fucking kidding yourself. You know what phrase I hate? Shut up. That burst onto the scene. Michael hates. Michael hates. Provenance.

Go fuck yourself. I hate that word. It's not provenance. It's provenance. What's the difference? Well, in the pronunciation, you're making it twice as douchey as it really is. Yeah. People say provenance.

First of all, people don't say that word at all, right way or wrong way. With four A's. What happened? In the art world, they say provenance. Thank you. When they're talking about where a painting came from. On purpose? Yeah, yeah.

Because it's a French, you know, it's French work. Do you even finance? I suppose I don't. I suppose I don't. All right. Are we clicked up? What are we doing? Better be buying one of them.

I'll have my bids in. Spend your ETH. Wow. This is how you know it's real, though. All right. Where's the music? I felt that one. Are you excited for this?

I'm really excited, but there's... Are you nervous? I'm nervous because I can't get sick. Episode 27. Welcome to The Compound and Friends. All opinions expressed by me, Michael Batnick, and our castmates are solely our own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any

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I have 48 hours until I get on a plane to Hawaii. Oh my God. That's a lot of pressure. Yeah, exactly. That's a lot of pressure, Doug. I can't get sick. Stay away from Jen, please. Would you please? Thank you. I'm good. Alright, Jen Oblon is here on a very

compound Christmas. Doug Bonaparte is here. Doug, this is your third? Fourth? Third on this show. There are side narratives. It's almost as if we really don't even have that many friends. Fourth, third. I don't have friends. Third on this show, but you've been on some of our other shows. Doug is here. Jen, this is your first time here. Yeah. I'm sitting six feet away from you. I just want to point that out. Yeah, I know. I know. All right. And I'm gradually inching my way backward. You're going to be, you're going to be fine. You're going to be fine. Listen, I know. I know. All right. And I'm gradually inching my way backward. You're going to be fine.

You're going to be fine. Listen, I'm so excited to have you. Doug, everyone knows your story, so we're going to ignore you for the first 15 minutes. Well, I have to say, it's a real pleasure to meet you in person because I'm putting the face with the tweet. Thank you. You guys have not met in person? No.

No. No. And, you know, what were you thinking? With what? The two of you together? Why would you pair me with the most famous person on Twitter? Keeping you on your toes. Listen, we're going to make you look good. Yeah.

Keeping you on your toes. This is going to be a clinic for you. You're going to learn something. But we know that you're the OG of Twitter. OG, but emphasis on the O. Because, look, I'm following in the shadows of giants here. Yeah, well. Nobody even remembers me anymore.

All right. So we're so excited to have you here, Jen. Jen, when did you and I first become friendly? Probably 10 years ago? I have a picture. Not to age either of us, but. We met over a decade ago. Okay.

And we've been cracking each other up ever since. Yeah. I would say. Okay. You're one of my favorite people in finance. You too. I know you know that. You too. Let's get your formal title established. You are the assistant managing editor. U.S. assistant managing editor of the Financial Times. I already screwed it up. U.S. assistant managing editor of the Financial Times. And you screwed it up. U.S. assistant managing editor of the Financial Times and you've been at Financial Times three years? Two and a half.

Two and a half years? Two and a half, yeah. Just before the pandemic? Just before the pandemic. And then they were like, welcome to the FT, please go home. Yeah.

Yeah. But still, you got the gig. I did. Okay. So what do you spend most of the time doing these days?

So- I know you're a reporter. Right. I know you've been an editor, but what's your deal now? A lot of it is U.S. growth strategy. We do a lot of hiring and also audience engagement. Okay. So the audience pretty much right now is engaged in Omicron around the clock.

If that's what's going on. It's Omicron. Our top three stories is Omicron. Okay. Are any of those good stories? I'm just asking. I'm assuming. I'm assuming.

No, I'm just asking. Nothing good. You ask really good questions. Nothing good is going on there, but okay. But that's what, that's what people are trying to figure out. It's actually been, our COVID tracker has been one of the most popular. Okay. So that just speaks to what people are engaged in.

What's the COVID tracker? We track COVID cases around the world. Okay. So data. Yeah. Okay. And then the stories are like, the pill is coming. Maybe get a booster, right?

That's right. Okay. All right. And also one of our stories is about what do you do about hybrid working in 2022? What do you do? You know, I think we're going to continue with the hybrid. I don't see any way around it. Yeah. So we're okay with that. I shut, I basically, I shut off the part of my brain that's telling me that we're ever going to be five days a week. I don't, I don't think anyone's thinking that way.

Yeah. And I think on balance, it's a win for like 99% of people. So we don't like the reason we got it. Yeah. But we're not giving it back. But don't you feel more productive? I've always been very productive. Yeah.

But I can see how a lot of people might feel more productive. But I could also see the other side of that. Same. Like I could see people that want to get away with things, get away with things. I find myself more productive like in my life because I can just like run out and crush an errand in between like the 30 activities I have to do. You also have very young kids. That's it. Everybody in your boat is like, this is awesome.

Yeah. Like stay safe. Yeah. But feel, you know, like you got to filter it. If you're young and irresponsible and like new, I feel like we talked about this,

right? You know, like, yeah, you, you got, you gotta have someone look over you, but if you're like got little kids or,

or, you know, close to retirement age, like work from home. Like I'm looking at the COVID tracker thing from FT and not to minimize the situation, but like this is way less than I would have thought. So Michigan, for example, which is like the worst state in the country, has over the last seven days, 1.17 deaths per 100,000 people. You would have thought, you would have thought what? Five?

One death? Wait, could that be right? One death? Yeah, it's early. Yeah, it's early. Yeah, it's early. It's early. We know what these waves ultimately can do. Yeah, I mean, I've been getting PTSD of March 2020.

Why does this remind me more of March 2020 than it reminds me of the Delta variant in July? It's cold. Is that what it is? Yeah, it's... think broadway shutting down and sporting events being canceled is the reason i feel that way yeah and also people have been talking about uh baking banana bread again we're gonna do that shit all over again my wife's ready to go does anybody want really she's ready to bake i mean she bakes she bakes all she's not

happy she's doing it i think she said look on bright side, I guess I get to bake stuff again. Look on the bright side, the apron's coming back up. Yeah, that's a big win for me. All right, so I wanted to start the show, not with Gloom and Doom, but I wanted to talk about the biggest, the favorite stories of this year or everyone's favorite moment of this year. Jen, what's yours? Bears have gotten this market wrong.

Well, stay tuned. But okay, so far you're talking about 2021 stock markets at record highs, uh, home prices, all time highs, wages, all time highs and fed fed fed. Yeah. Yeah. But still, you're right. But to summarize just how on fire markets have been is you look at the junk bond market. I think I brought a couple of slides with me. So I chose the riskiest part of the credit markets. And junk bonds have really been a huge shocker for many. I went to an investor day at an asset management firm, and they just talked about how they just cannot believe what has happened to junk bonds. And you can see, yeah, the one year look back using daily data in the first chart. And then the second is the five-year perspective on the Bloomberg U.S. High Yield Corporate Index.

What are these rates? Yield. Yield. So it's interesting. I mean, it is turning up now, but it just spends so much time being suppressed. Right. I mean, it's- Yeah, but Josh, look, this is like a five-year chart.

Yeah. And it's lower than it ever was. Yeah. And also, you know, Fitch, so I have to update this because, you know, the last 48 hours have been wild. Fitch expects the high yield default rate to come in at just 1%- That's wild. By the end of 2022. I would take the over on 1%, but I would have taken it this year too.

And I think I would have been wrong. And that's shocking. So yields are not very much better than what you're getting on investment grade credit, what you're getting in the muni bond market. It's like, I can't understand who is allocating to this asset class right now, other than if it's just like part of an allocation

and they're not even thinking about it. That's it. It has to be. That has to be the answer, right? It has to be. It's a little driven. It's there. Because you're not getting paid for the extra LOL risk

that ordinarily they'd be getting. These are obviously insensitive buyers, right? Otherwise, they wouldn't be buying. Well, it also reflects the scramble for yield. People are starved for yield. I'm so hungry. And they will literally do anything. All right, what's your other favorite moment?

Oh, we got to go here. So some of you have not watched Sex and the City. Yeah, no spoilers. We know about the Peloton thing. Well, yeah, it's big. I mean, that came out of nowhere. Yeah. And that actually is a Wall Street story.

See, did you watch it? I've seen the first, because of my wife, I've seen the first episode. See? Because of my wife. Stop that shit. I willingly watch Sex and the City every episode. I watched the first one, and then I'm like, I'm done here, because I actually don't like the series.

You can hate me for it. And then I watched her see some of the second episode. That's where I'm at. Wait, do any of them have grandkids in this season? No. That's very unrealistic. No. Isn't it?

Why? How old is SJP? 55? Pushing 60 in this, I would imagine. Yeah, no, she can't be 55. I mean, I guess she could. I don't really know. It's a good question.

I would have assumed they would have gotten there at this point. They literally started this show by killing someone in this environment. Can we have an upbeat? He hasn't watched it yet. No, no, no, really know. It's a good question. I would have assumed they would have gotten there at this point. They literally started this show by killing someone in this like environment. Can we have like an upbeat? He hasn't watched it yet. No, no, no. I know. Oh, okay. He scared the crap out of me.

Chris Nolte should have seen that script and said no. Yeah. And then probably a lot of things would have been better in his life. But I think it's so tone deaf the way they started this thing. It's such a big thing and it was the biggest bummer. Well, I would disagree.

It's okay. That's my opinion. You love it. No, because I don't love it. What I'm saying is they made, I guess you guys don't know what's going on with Chris Noth.

All right, you could ruin it. I don't think there's a lot of hope for that. She means in real life. In real life. The scandal. Now I do realize that. That's a new right, you could ruin it. I don't think there's a lot of overlap. She means in real life. In real life. The scandal. Now I do realize that. That's a new bumper on top of it.

What I'm saying is, if you connect the dots, it was good that they killed his character. Because it led to a lot of media coverage. What scandal? Oh, you don't even know. It's so not what we're going to do today. Two accusers.

Yeah, we're so not going there. All right. I actually wanted to ask you about this US corporate pension plan thing. So that plays into what's going on with junk bonds. How active is the readership for fixed income in general at the FT? Like, is there anything? It's huge. I mean, you have CEOs, CFOs, you know, it's a lot of- But doesn't it seem like all one trade more so than the stock market? What do you mean? This is from the outside looking in. I feel like over the last year on any given day,

you looked at the stock market and you read content related to the stock market, maybe at the Financial Times. And there's like different things happening in different sectors, some stocks going up, some stocks going down. The bond market to me looks like a school of fish. And the entire thing is just moving in one direction based on whatever came out of a Fed speaker on any given day. Do I have that wrong? Is there more dispersion in the bond market than it appears from the outside? I mean, I think, so if you're over a certain age, you have to be allocated to fix income, right? As we are. And a lot of our readers are much older, white male.

Why are you laughing? I'll tell you why. Why are you laughing? Because I don't know why. I was just reminded of the fact that I used to read the Financial Times on the newspaper as like a 24-year-old going to sell life insurance. You're looking smart. You had a lot to say about bonds.

I swear to God. The paper was like, is it still pink? It was like physically pink. Yeah, it's still pink. That's how you know. Oh my God. That's how you know. If you were reading the journal, I gave you props.

But if you had the pink, if you had the pink, you were taking it seriously. It's salmon. Yeah, it's salmon. So I used to read the Wall Street Journal, and when I signed up for the CFA Level 1, I switched to the Times. Yeah. But it's just funny.

I had no idea what I was reading, but I was physically reading it. I felt like I was getting flexed on in the subway when someone had the Financial Times and I was reading the Wall Street Journal. You're a Sim're a simpsons junkie right yeah what's the joke where they fly first class and uh marge picks up the economist and she's reading it she's like did you know that uh they're at a turning point in Myanmar and Homer goes they are I love how Jen goes, what are you laughing at? Because I'm literally just thinking about-

No, because you were like laughing when I was talking about bonds. And I'm like, oh my God, what did I say that- Nothing, I was thinking in my head, the image of my moronic self reading the Financial Times is funny. Oh, as a 24 year old, that's good. It was Homer reading it on a plane to Miami Beach

and asked Marge if she knew that Indonesia was at a crossroads after reading the magazine. A crossroads, right. New challenges for Indonesia, special report on the Ural Mountains. Right. Oh, and she's like, it is? And he goes, yes. That's it. All right. So US-China scoops, are you guys covering China? I don't want to say more aggressively, but in a very different way than U.S.-based financial media? So we have this rock star, Dimitri Sevastopoulos. Okay, you did that well. Did I?

I was going to correct you if you got it wrong, but you didn't. And he's just been breaking stories in his dreams. Okay. You know, the U.S U S China relationship is very important. It's tenuous. Yeah. Yeah. It's at a crossroads. You can almost say, did you know, but, um, he's been out there talking about what's been

happening with trade trade and, um, just are people paying more or less attention to that kind of thing than usual right now again like since trump left is the china trade thing like as big a deal for u.s readers what's a big deal is the omicron and covid and what's going to happen when we all go back or we don't go back. And, you know, a lot of companies are really grappling with this. How do you, how do you keep your employees engaged? And I know that you said that you folks talked about this at Nauseam, but it's, it's real. How do you keep your young employees engaged? Mentorship programs,

sponsorships. If you're a subscriber to the FT, you're probably an executive. Right? For the most part. Or a 24-year-old. My question to you is how did you pay for it?

No, I mean... If you have to ask how much, you can't afford it was in my budget here's some odd jobs no I was a great saver I was a great saver as a child

alright your big story this week is credits other than Omicron Credit Suisse seeks access to personal staff mobiles yeah they kind of have to

if alright if you're using a mobile phone to text with a client you kind of can't do that. JP Morgan just got a $200 million fine for that, right?

Yeah. JPEG Morgan. JPEG Morgan. So wait, so this is like going to be the next thing. This was our best read company story of the week. Right. Yeah. It's horrifying when you think about it.

Like, wait, my employer is going to have access to what? My searches on my mobile phone? My emails? Their personal phone or their work phone? But that's the thing. Get a work phone. Two phone life. Nobody's doing that, though.

That's horrible. It's absolutely horrible. But as someone who thinks it's absolutely horrible, I would demand a second work phone. I would probably not work there. So we have that same compliance challenge. I have 50, 40 something people. I get it. We did a ring.com.

Stop reading my texts. What? I'm not, believe me. I'm not even reading my own texts. For us, there's no good solution at all. You can't seamlessly integrate personal and business contacts and text to and fro. I'm not doing a commercial here, but ring.com would enable Credit Suisse in this example. No, Ring Central.

What is it? Ring Central. Ring.com is something else? Ring Central. Ring is the Suisse in this example. No, Ring Central. What is it? Ring Central. Ring.com, something else? Ring Central. Ring is the ring, the Amazon ring. You can see how engaged I am with the IT budget. Ring Central allows for our employees to text clients, but it's not from their real phone number. It's from an assigned phone number by Ring Central.

So clients want text messages. And it's through an app. It's through an app. Yeah. It's not through their regular SMS text. So I feel like that's pretty obvious that that's the solution to that. Does it allow for emojis?

Yeah. Okay, good. It's just, but it's the same thing for the Zooms, like no personal Zoom. Of course. So everything gets done that way. Can I share my moment of the year? It's not really a moment.

It's just more of like a observation. Please. So this was the highest of the year? It's not really a moment. It's just more of like a observation. Please. So this was the highest inflationary year since the 1970s. And I guess the trade would have been short bonds, long gold, right? Like the traditional macro trade for this type of environment. And bonds didn't do so well this year. Well, nominal returns were like negative one and a half percent for like a total index. Obviously real returns much worse,

but gold did even worse. Gold is down six and a half percent on the year. You did better in cash than gold in the worst inflationary environment. Same thing. You might as well have been in cash. Unbelievable. Wait, what was gold total return this year? Negative six and a half percent. Who wants gold? That's disgusting. My mom. Because what do you tell, now, what%. Who wants gold? That's disgusting. My mom. Because what do you tell,

now what do you tell people? That's telling. That, let's say, let's say in the beginning of 2021, you said this is going to be a big inflation year. Because of all the money printing. All the reasons. Because of whatever.

Supply constraints, money printing, oil, all the reasons. And then you gave somebody like a 5% or 10% allocation to gold because you're a genius. And now you're talking to them in December, and it's like, well, I got half right. It is the worst inflationary year since the 70s. Yeah.

But then what did I get wrong? You give them the textbook that you read that out of and said, see, look, it says right here. Yeah, it says this was supposed to work. Everybody said on Twitter that it would work. Everybody knows this. Yeah. I mean, I'm not taking a victory lap dunking on gold

because it'll probably go up 50% next year. But I have never believed in this fairy tale. No. I've never seen data to support it. Do you think decentralization is impacting that play at all or no? Yes. Doug's NFTs disrupted the gold market. We all agree on that.

Who put this in Investopedia Terms of the Year? I love this. Oh, I did. Caleb just sent it to me. And I'm wearing an Investopedia sweatshirt. Okay.

Can I just say one thing about gold? Please. So my mother gifts my brother, sister, and I gold every year. Jewelry? Physical gold?

Or ETFs? No, physical gold. Okay. So, you know, what do we do with it, Doug? What do you do with that gold? Sell it and buy Bitcoin. Yeah.

Melt it down. And what if she gives you gold coins? Yeah. Okay. Like fit, like mails them to, how do you get them? Well, that's why I'm going to Hawaii. Don't tell people when you return flight. If you see her, she's got gold.

Okay. So what do you do with it? Yeah. It's a keepsake. Wait for it to turn around. I'm told it's a good conductor of electricity. Just because it didn't work this year

doesn't mean it won't work next year. We have no idea. Right. But it didn't work in 2020, right? Oh no, it hasn't worked since 2011, quite frankly. But as part of a properly

diversified portfolio. But it's like the Knicks. It's due. It's due. Yeah due it had one good year it had one good year I feel like in 2018 it was up like 30 or 40% alright

whatever Investopedia terms of the year so these are the things that people looked at the most is that so these are the these are the top 10

alright let's go through these see if any of these are shocking capital gains tax that's hilarious number one the number one most search for term on Investopedia this year there's gains out there number two is better All right, let's go through these, see if any of these are shocking. Capital gains tax, that's hilarious. Number one. The number one most searched for term on Investopedia this year. There's gains out there.

Number two is better. Fiat money is even more hilarious. That's almost all people that are getting their information from Twitter. Do we agree on that? Yeah, because I bet people are like, wait, what the hell is it? Why do people keep saying fiat? Like nobody knows what fiat is unless you're on Twitter. Two years ago, I had no idea.

Yeah, why would you? What the hell is fiat? If you're over 70 and you were around for like Nixon taking us off the gold standard. You probably know what fiat is unless you're on Twitter. Two years ago, I had no idea. Yeah, why would you? What the hell is Fiat? If you're over 70 and you were around for like Nixon taking us off the gold standard. You probably know what Fiat is. Then you probably know what that term means. Most people think it's a car. Inflation, I would have guessed that would be number one. Yeah.

HODL, that seems like played out like a holdover from 2020, but whatever. Child tax credit on Investopedia. That's cool. Young demographic and changes in the law. Yeah. That's young men and women who like this now applies to. Great demo for Investopedia. ESG. Less said about that, the better. Dogecoin. Okay. That's embarrassing for us. A little bit.

For America. Guys, you're not going to tip your waiter with Dogecoin. I hope you all make money with your Dogecoin, but no. NFTs, fine, obviously. Short interest, that's got to be from January. I saw a tweet that Melania is making fungible NFTs. Was that a joke? Melania? You know what I call that?

Yeah, centralized. It's called a grift. That's another IQ test. Let's see. Let's see how many people fail that IQ test. Yeah, it's called a grift that's another iq test let's see let's see how many people fail that iq test yeah it's just not hiding it uh guys short interest was from january of 2021 game which is doing that right yeah hold on hold on a sec sprinkles you know i'm taping a podcast right now right okay all right conservative ship uh wait so short interest was from GameStop. What's conservatorship? Britney Spears.

Oh, June 2021. Right? Yeah. That's when the whole Free Britney movement. That doesn't belong on Investopedia. What does that do with investing? Her access to her money. Oh, I guess so.

Okay, that's really cool. What's not on here that should be on here? No Bitcoin. Yeah, it's Boomercoin. No Ethereum. No Ethereum. I wonder if- No Web3. No Web3. I it's Boomercoin. No Ethereum. No Ethereum. I wonder if- No Web3.

No Web3. I think that's too late in the year. Okay. Like that'll be next year. Web3 will be next year. Yeah, 100%. Yo, no SPAC. It's done.

It's done. It's so cooked. No GameStop? Well, why would that be? Done. It's not a done as well term. Stonks, done. Meme stock.

Meme stock. Just meme, yeah. I hated the stonk meme. Meme stocks is not on there. What else is missing? Federal Reserve. No Fed. Doug Bonaparte.

That's interesting. Everyone knows what the Fed is basically, just a conspiracy at this point. All right, where are we going next? All right. The great resignation. So, all right, let's go through this. The U.S. is on track to have 46 million job quits in 2021,

meaning over one quarter of the workforce left the job. Can that be right? Yeah. That's the actual number? Yeah. All right, think about the people you know. One out of four of them quit their job this year. I know six people.

But, no, you know probably 200 people. What about out of your clients? Would you know? I wouldn't know. Like, I guess the advisors would know. Like, I'm trying to think of it through my base, right? Well, I can't picture that one in four people left the job. I believe it.

Out of the households I serve, one in four definitely did not flip their job. Yeah, and during COVID. Well, wait a minute, wait a minute. Because think about the people. This sounds elitist, but like the people that are leaving, the one in four people are probably lower wage people, which is great. So I'm skewed to the higher white collar. Doug doesn't speak to those people at all. No, he's allergic to them. Right. Hey, he hates them. All right, Jen, come on.

I mean, I, I actually think it's across the board. You were, you were saying that you think it's a, a, a situation for just young professionals, right? I think it's men and women. Oh, no, he's saying it's baristas. Huh? He's saying it's baristas. No, I'm saying it's the income scale thing. Yes, I agree with Michael.

People in the lower 50% are leaving for better opportunities. I think it's across the board. I think people are starting their own companies. That's true. I saw a lot of flexibility. And again, this is all skewed data. I have very small population I'm sampling from here, right? But I think that I saw more employers matching the expectations of the employees that could speak

to the types of companies that they're working for more than, you know, what's happening more on a macro level. But I saw more like clients go, uh, good to new Orleans. Cause I always wanted to live there and their employers don't care. They got lucky with employers who, and the types of jobs that allow that though. Yeah. Go work wherever you want. We're not changing how much you make. Just do the, do the work. Jen, you mentioned that you're seeing this, um, YOLO mindset taking hold, which I totally get. If ever you were to jump and go do something, why wouldn't it be now? But you're saying you're seeing it more particularly in women. Yeah.

What do you mean by that? I think women are, you know, everyone keeps talking about the great resignation. I'm seeing the great renewal of women play out. Okay. Women are getting offered really great positions. They're getting elevated at their current positions. And I think there's been a reassessment of, you know, what do you want to do post-COVID or post-Omicron? Yeah, because there is no post.

None of this will ever end, but okay. Yeah, but. What do you want to do on the other side of the this will ever end, but okay. Yeah. But. What do you want to do on the other side of the way things used to be? Basically. Yeah. I feel like is the way we have to start thinking. John, can you throw up this chart of business applications?

So this, this has to explain some of the missing people. This is crazy. And this is, this to me is like one of the most bullish charts. Yeah, it's awesome. Of the year. So we're looking at a chart of business applications. And as we all know, it's spiked, like ridiculously spiked. Mike, is this monthly? This, I don't know.

Yeah. So look at this one month where it hit five, is that 580,000 business applications in one month or one quarter? This is like twice what the normal was at least. And to Jen's point about it, it's not just, it's not just, uh, people in lower income scale. Like a lot of, a lot of people that are starting businesses are like, Hey, I worked at Qualcomm or whatever. Like people that were engineers at Google that are like, I'm out of here. I got people doing that, keeping their job and also like doing the other thing in

hopes of like making, yeah, obviously classic move, but now they're emboldened to do that. Yeah. I think that, that um covid for some reason has has given people a sense of urgency because your phone again yeah i mean i don't that one was my mom is that your mom yeah i love it i hope she's uh staying positive testing negative you know what i mean yeah uh wait so do you think that do you think that, wasn't there that story? Maybe, I don't think it was in the Financial Times, but somebody had two jobs. Oh, yeah. Two remote jobs, two different employers.

That was the headline story. There was like a thousand people that did it, though. It's like a tiny, I mean, people are doing it. It's not a lot of people. Yeah, people are doing that. Couldn't you picture it be like way more than a thousand in real life? Like how would anyone, I mean, you would know, I guess if you really looked for it as an employer, but. So the labor force participation rate chart on John, this labor

force participation rate looks like it bottomed. JP Morgan showed that for households that earn between roughly 45 and $69,000, the typical family's checking count rose by more than half between January, 2020 and the spring to above $3,000. Now, the personal savings rate recently fell below its pre-pandemic level. So it looks like people are starting to, you know, the coffers are running dry a little bit and people are getting back to work. So people are not able to just sit around and wait anymore. Now they have to work. I think we're going to see more of that.

I don't think we're far enough away from the faucet being turned off to really like have a good gauge of how people are going to be like coming back into the workforce. And I think there's a number of variables that are going to, you know, give either employers more or less leverage when it comes to work from home, come back. Right now, it doesn't look like they have any leverage. In this moment, all leverage is gone. Anything you built up from over the summer as an employer, like it's just out the window as far as being like, you should come back to the office. But if people now have to earn again. There it is.

Right. And you felt okay with that because you had money coming in, to your point? Yeah. If you have to do it, you're going to do it. There's not going to be another round of direct payments, I don't think. Now, is there a positive thing to say there where like, I am trying to be positive about this fog that's over us right now. And it's here. I can feel it.

I feel it in this room. I feel it out there. I feel it at home. It sucks. Oh, we're all going to die. Yeah. I wouldn't go that far, but like I'm watching. No, eventually.

Yeah, yeah, for sure. Zero sum game. Watching my children's daycare situation literally blow up before my eyes right now. That's what's happening. Wait, tell me what's happening. No, this parent's got it. That parent's got it. Everyone's got it. Everyone's got it. Everyone's got it. Everyone's got it. Everyone's got it. Everyone's got it. Everyone's got it. Everyone's got it. Everyone's got it. Everyone's got it. Everyone's got it. Everyone's got it. Everyone's got it. Everyone's got it. Everyone's got it. Everyone's got it. Everyone's got it. Everyone's got it. Everyone's got it. Everyone's got it. Everyone's got it. Everyone's got it. Everyone's got it. Everyone's got it. Everyone's got it. Everyone's got it. Everyone's got now. That's what's happening. Wait, tell me what's happening. No, this parent's got it, that parent's got it, exposure here, who's got what, you know, you're doing a matrix at home,

the whole shebang again. Jen's freaking out, stop. Yeah, I have to fly in 48 hours. No, we're good. I made sure of that. But this is where we're going, just like on a good idea. Good idea, now it's not going to happen. Alright, trust me, my wife's like, where are you going? What are you doing? I'm like, don't worry.

I'm with Jen. There is an upside to this. Oh, sorry. Yeah. Good point. Getting through it, actually. Getting through it. And you come out of this where, look, if my best case scenario is this spreads, it does

its thing. People got to go to work. Look, eventually people are going to get back to work and push through this. I'm not going to sit here and be like, oh, over and over again. No, it's going to get through. Well, no. So my point is, I don't think anyone's leaving work and push through this. I'm not going to sit here and be like, oh, over and over again. No, it's going to get through. Well, no. So my point is, I don't think anyone's leaving work this time. No.

No, you're going to work. Because now we're, this is it. Train was packed today, this morning. It's packed. Yeah. So now we're set up like this is, oh, this is work now. It's variable. Every time I try and push out a little further, if everyone's like, oh yeah, six months, give

it six months. No. 12 to 18. Set your expectations. No, 12 to 18. Set your expectations. Yeah, 12 to 18 years we should be through. All right, I want to pivot to biggest trends in asset management, brokerage wealth. Doug, you gave us a lot on this. Oh.

So what do you see is going on here? Yeah. What would you say are like the big things that are happening? I'm drinking from the Kool-Aid, but it's this web. Yeah, it's constantly rebranding itself. But decentralization or decentralized finance or Web3 or whatever, you know, it's being called right now.

That is not stopping. Web9. Web9. GM. Jen is covering Web9 right now. So right now you have, this is the best way to describe it. You have this sandbox and everyone's welcome in this sandbox to go build castles or whatever they want, give it a, give it a try.

Some people are going to come along and crush other people's sandcastles. Other people are going to build some pretty cool stuff in here. Almost 90% of it will be absolute garbage or won't work or, you know, was a great idea and morph into something super cool. But that's the way to view Web3 and all of this metaverse stuff right now is everyone can build the barrier to entry with the way technology has been built now from Web2 has made more creators out there.

It's interoperable. It's interoperable diamond hands. I mean, you guys have all the utility. Yeah, we're here to share utility. Who do you guys have covering Web3 crypto stuff do you have a dedicated person yet because that's when i'll short it all is it is it me now not yet nobody okay it's it's it's coming though you're gonna have to yeah definitely you know why because the people that are into this are more into this than anything on earth and they're never gonna stop and they have so much money

financial times did an NFT documentary. It was a 25 minute NFT documentary. You want to know how I know that? Because you're in it. Because I'm in it. Yeah. It goes Gary V. It goes Gary V. Doug Bonaparte.

That's the order of NFT knowledge in this video. I spoke to a reporter from the FT about Top Shot in like March. Yeah, I remember that too. So you're an expert as well. You were like, I'm getting killed in this thing or something? I lost my kids' college money. What did you say in the article? Do you remember?

Uh-uh. No, you didn't say anything that extreme, but I think you were like, yeah, I have no idea what I'm doing. And they printed it. I don't remember. Oh my God. By the way, I think that was more or less the line.

It was like Michael Batnick, director of research for the whole wealth management. He goes, I don't know, this whole thing's a joke. Or something like that. But I forget what you said, but I remember it being funny. I think he said he uses leverage in this particular asset class. Dude, Topshop was fun. It was fun. It was fun. How long did it go

on for? Four weeks? Six weeks? I don't even know. Less. Two weeks. It was all a blur. Dapper Labs has a deal with the NFL. Yep. Yep. Yep. So why won't that go the same way? What do you think they learned from that? I think I'm like by no means an expert, but I think they just supplied oversupply to the NFL. So why won't that go the same way? What do you think they learned from that? I think, I think I'm like by no means an expert, but I think they just, they just supplied oversupplied on the market. They just kept too many drops, too many drops.

Because what happened was getting the drop, the email that a drop was coming up. It's like, all right, I'm in line for the lottery. I'm in line for the lottery. I want a LeBron moment. And you could like legitimately win like $30,000 just waiting in line. And there was demand and they just crushed demand. They just poured supply. There was a new drop every other hour. But that's why this is all sandbox play around type stuff.

You can have legitimate brands. You had Adidas and Nike. You just had Adidas do their drop last week with Bored Apes. And there's a crazy story out of it. Some smart contract developer created a smart contract that created 150 other addresses to get around the two mint minimum. So this one guy, this one guy minted like 330 Bored Ape Adidas, you know, drops. How do you know it was a guy? Or a girl. I use this interchangeably. All that. Either way, Josh, they are $600,000 fiat dollars wealthier, but someone broke it down. They had to spend like $100,000. But here's the thing, and sorry if this is

like very boomer energy or Xer energy. What happens when they want to sell what they just apparently stole? Who is the buyer once there's a new thing that comes along that's even cooler than that? Or do these things keep their cool perpetually?

They're called mops. So a mop is what? A fund? No, there's two types of fans. that or do these things keep their cool perpetually they're called mops all right what is it all right so a mop is what a fund no there's two types of fans there's the geeks and the mops the geeks will follow this and have have an idea of what's going on but they're really not kind of aware what the corporations or the you know sociopaths are doing that's the the string pullers or the sociopaths taking advantage of this situation yeah the mops are just the zealot fanboys and girls who like and there will be enough of them to buy these things when they're. The mops are just the zealot fanboys and girls who like- And there will be enough of them to buy these things when they're down?

You squeeze mops for liquidity, for liquid, right? Oh my God. Doug is in deep. I don't know about mops. I thought it was an acronym. You don't know about mops? Motimated. Decentralized mops.

None of this sounds like finance to me. No, no. But I think it's worth saying it because- It sounds like high school. Josh, you're not being boomer about it. You're pointing out an inherently not good thing that took place in this particular market. And it's okay to point that out. And I think what we really should be doing is looking at situations like this early on in a space that's legitimate and say, yeah, look, if it was regulated, I'm pretty sure the SEC wouldn't be so thrilled with the guy who created a smart contract to create all that and do all this, you know, tomfoolery. But, um, it, you know, if you take the approach that I'm observing,

how do financial regulators regulate NFT drops? And you don't. Jen, what do you think? No chance. Yeah. What regulator has the bandwidth? You create better, you create better, you create better contracts and better auctioning and better systems to do this stuff. But it sounds like the incentive is to not do that. It sounds like the incentive is to keep the loopholes open for the geniuses that are stealing from people. I don't think these types of projects are the ones that we should be talking about. And I don't think the attention should be going to Adidas doing a drop with Bored Apes,

that surface level stuff in this space, but it's capturing our attention. There's real money involved though. Yeah. Someone's going to get hurt when you're experimenting with new stuff. You think like when they were building bombs, someone didn't get their hand blown off, but we have bombs. The last time we talked about NFTs in depth, although there was a lot of activity, you told me that the market for this is so few people relative to the overall population. The last time we spoke-

Has that changed? No, I don't know. It's tiny. How many wallets are on MetaMask? Wait for Coinbase. And then that will open up the next leg of users. Coinbase is now going to allow all the people that opened up these accounts to buy Bitcoin

to start trading in NFTs. The wait list is huge. Yeah, yeah. There'll be smart contracts. It's step by step. So if you're going to drop something, you want to drop it right around that time. I think the –

Because there are going to be people buying things just to buy them. Of course. But again, we're giving our attention to that very – the flipper. All right. Where should our attention be? See who's really building stuff that has the ability to find its way into your everyday technology and everyday need to do proof of work. So, I mean, we can go to real boring stuff real fast, like title insurance or-

There we go. Or if you're a luxury manufacturer of goods and you want to control and monetize your secondary market, if you're Chanel, if you're Louis Vuitton, there's applications here for decentralized blockchain technology and tokens to help you do that. And if you are Louis Vuitton or Chanel, what's your biggest asset? Your brand. So, you know, showing a company like that, and these aren't small companies, how big, Zelvi, you know?

Oh, yeah. Oh, Nike's all in on this. Oh, my God. Hey, guys. Hey, guys, I can insure your entire secondary market of luxury goods, monetize it, and insure your brand. What's that worth to you? Yeah, I'll cut the check for $500 million to go build this. Yeah. Listen, I think if Louis finds out that they can, um, that they can sell digital versions of their handbags inside of a video game, and then the metaverse makes it so that you can take that bag out of that game and bring it into some other environment with you. Exactly. That's free money for them. They don't even have to pay a kid in a third world country to stitch it together. It's not even that.

Like I buy the handbag, you get an authenticity card saying that this is real. You can forge that. You can't forge an NFT, right? So you got a digital token linking it to the physical good. It changes hands. How will you fight all the girls off though, is the question.

I don't know, man. Once you have that authenticity. OpenSea has less than 2 million monthly active users. I- That might as well be zero. Zero. So here's the biggest challenge of all, and I got to get this point out there.

It's that the user interface and user experience for a lot of this stuff is complete garbage. Complete garbage. When you think about- It's too annoying. I had Heather buy- That's why I don't do it. I wanted Heather to buy an NFT.

She goes, hey, I really like this female empowerment project. And I want to buy one of these NFTs. I said, I will stand over your shoulder as you do it. But let's see if you can do it. Which meant, you know, open up a Gemini account. Link her checking account to it. Wait, wait. Yeah, I know you're laughing already.

It gets worse. You know, move money. Buy Ethereum. Move Ethereum to her new MetaMask wallet. Find the things she wants on OpenSea and trust this system that she's never used in her entire life that just took X amount of dollars into internet money was going to work. She does it and says none of my girlfriends would ever, ever, ever, ever do that. So yes, it's too early. And until it's an app on your phone that you use like everything else, it's not going to get there.

And it's going to get there. It's just not now. Let me throw this at you. It's not going to get there and it's going to get there. It's just not now. Let me throw this at you. My phone? Your phone at me? Yeah, no. Oh. Seusables.

Yes. Do we know? Jen, big Dr. Seuss fan? Awesome. Come on, you definitely are. Is that an NFT? Better. It's an NFT platform.

Wow. And you could buy it for cash. You could buy NFTs with dollars. Good. All that f***ing bullshit with MetaMask. Forget it. The exchange from Fiat to-

Now here's the problem. They did a drop two days ago. The Grinch. Grinch won. These are pictures of the Grinch. I don't understand this. Who told you about this? I forget, but they sold it out in seconds.

Yeah. And now they said, very soon we'll develop a secondary market. Right now, if you want one of these things I hope you really love it because there is not a way to trade it on the app. But why can't that be the edit? It's adorable. I don't hate it. I have it on my phone. This is from Dapper Labs. That's how I heard about it. I was reading about

so look it's totally cool because I love Dr. Seuss and I can picture little kids ask their parents can I have $3,000 to buy? Dude, you think they're spending less on Roblox? You think they're spending 10 grand on in-app purchases on their games?

No, I totally understand this. This is cool. They call them stickers. I need one now. Michael's trembling that I knew about this before him. All right, fine. I totally get it. But I think you're right.

Somebody has to, this platform looks very easy to use. That's probably why everything's I totally get it. Red flip. But I think you're right. Somebody has to, this platform looks very easy to use. That's probably why everything's sold out on it. Yeah. Shameless plug. Maybe Disney will do this better. I'm going to do it better. They're doing it with Veve.

With what? There's a company called Veve. V-E-V-E. Who's they? Disney. Disney Marvel. Like all this. I try to like read between the lines

when you see like payment companies like Square. I mean Block, you know, you have a huge payment platform like that that's already in crypto. Venmo's already there and PayPal's already there. I almost feel like we're almost like one or two steps away from that, you know, seamless fiat to token conversion. Do you think kids are asking their parents for NFTs for Christmas? No. Some.

Like the kids who know about it. Kevin Rose did an NFT drop the last week where he created, was it 100? No, 1,000. I think he created 1,000 NFTs called Proof, which was their utility tokens that give access to his events, his podcasts. So that makes sense.

His discord because he's deep in the community. He can legitimately generate alpha and help. So he started it at five ETH and it went down like a quarter of an ETH every 10 minutes or whatever. And he sold a thousand. The floor was one ETH. So he probably did like $5 million in sales. So that's what people are paying for.

To your point, Doug, things that have utility. But the rabbit hole. But wait a minute. But then if you're him, now you have to. So this is the thing. I know a lot of rock bands were selling NFTs and rappers and they confer certain rights on the buyer. And that's like, to me, that's like a modern fan club. I totally get it. But now you have to like do the thing that you said you would do yes nothing sucks more to me than collecting five million dollars up front and then like oh shit i gotta build it now these people own no no he's not he is not a grifter like he is going to i believe that i know you're not convinced i know you're talking about the feeling of that yeah back up against the wall in my opinion that would suck to feel like you just sold a piece of yourself and your time. And now forever, hey man, I bought your thing.

When's the next Zoom meeting? When's the next thing? I put real capital behind this. Totally. Anyway, content creators are going to be doing that all over the place. I agree with you. And I think it makes sense. All right.

Jen, the biggest trend in asset management is still the move to ETFs. Yeah. All right. Jen, the biggest trend in asset management is still the move to ETFs. Yeah. All right. Tell us about this conversation you had. So I had a conversation with Ron Riddell, the president of DoubleLine, and he talked about how the biggest trend that's getting louder and louder is the move to ETFs. For active funds. Yeah. Like active funds. Yeah.

Like existing funds still. Yeah. It's amazing how long. Well, we're about to cross a trillion dollars in US ETF flows. And a lot of that was active mutual funds or mutual funds converting to ETFs. Yeah. I discount that. That doesn't count.

I agree. But- Why? It's the same portfolio, just moving it from one wrapper. It's not like new money. Yeah, exactly. What is the active ETF landscape beyond Cathie Wood even look like right now? Is anyone big there? Well, it's thematic. It's not like stock pickers.

Okay, so like Fidelity hasn't really done this with any of their big brands. Because I don't know of any active ETF managers beyond ARK that have raised enough money for people to be talking about it. But I could be wrong about that. Well, Roundtable's meta ETF got a lot of flows. Right, but to your point, that's a thematic. That's a thematic, right.

Right, so that's... I mean, ETF buyers like thematic more so than they like the idea of somebody's just going to pick all these stocks. What were the anti-ETFs? Remember those? Which ones? Active, non-transparent ETFs.

That never took off. That was a thing. That was a structure that they got the SEC to say yes to where they don't have to disclose their holdings in real time the way a mutual fund manager doesn't have to. have to disclose their holdings in real time the way a mutual fund manager doesn't have to. So like a mutual fund can wait for the 13F before disclosing things 45 days after the quarter closes. The ETF has to disclose that day. And that's how there are a million stories about Kathy because she's like the biggest active manager forced to say what she's doing. There's also a million stories because she says some wild shit. A hundred percent.

A hundred percent. Well, hold on. Let me substantiate that. For example, she said over the weekend that she thinks that the ARK holdings, the Frontier stuff is now deep value, which, okay, she might be right.

But what she said, which is like really out there, is she said that she thinks that they can do 40% compound annual returns for the next five to 10 years. And I don't know any fund that's done that really like ever. Well, you just wait and see. When you guys write about her, people click. Yeah. Is that like right up there with Elon?

Yes. Would you say? Yes. Elon and Kathy? Yes. Elon and Kathy. Okay. No way Kathy comes close to like the amount of Elon conversation. Well, he's doing even more out there shit than anyone.

Of course. That's why. I love the idea. Like paying $11 billion in taxes. But I love the idea that she's. Him and me both. That that's her largest holding. And I, and I feel like he definitely wants to take her into space.

No, I, I really like something tells me that's a thing that that could be wouldn't that be like a perfect 2022 headline like come on it's his it's like one of his biggest shareholders like why wouldn't he take her right right what no yeah i love this world you're painting here not to mars guys but into orbit not to mars did say Mars? You know, Michael Strahan made a comment on one of his morning shows about how he would like to go up in space. And Jeff Bezos got a hold of him. And took him. Yes. Yeah.

For the record, I would like to go up in space. Jeff, if you're listening. Yeah. Yeah. Anyone that wants, just shout it out. We were watching the document, you know, the SpaceX doc where they did send, you know, that crew up for St. Jude's and all that. It was awesome to watch. And I turned and looked at my wife.

I said, if either one of us was offered to go to space, we're going, right? Really? And we both said, absolutely. But not separately. You'd have to go together? Yeah, too much of a risk if we went together. No, we've got to go separately. Go separately.

Go separately. Yeah, can't run the risk of us both exploding in the atmosphere. Okay. I don't think that there is a capsule created yet that has space for me. I require a lot of space. It's gonna launch you out of a cannon. I don't, it's not,

it's not a thing that's ever gonna happen for me. Extra boosters. All right. Retiring advisors, another big story in asset management. Let's go through this from Deloitte. As advisors retire, so too will their fellow baby boomers, initiating the largest transfer of wealth in history

over the 55-year period from 07 to 2061, which would be a stretch for me. 58.1 trillion is expected to move out, move from one adult population to another. Historically, wealth transfers from one generation to the next have resulted in 90% of their heirs changing advisors. Yeah, but you know what? This is going to happen. Like millennials are going to be 60.

By the time they get the money? Yeah. And we'll be writing the same stories. Because their parents will be 100? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, that wealth transfer is right over the hill. Yeah, I didn't build a business around millennials and expected that trickle down.

I'm a little more cynical about that, to be honest with you. Like the amount of money that will trickle down. I think it's already halfway done. Well, there was that journal article not too long ago that parents want to share the wealth now more during the lifetime. I don't think they're waiting.

I've seen examples of that in our clientele. Many, many. I would back that up and say, I've had plenty of examples of that, that specific article being mentioned. Were you in that article? No, I was not in that one. Wait, this idea that grandparents, that parents have to die for that money to transfer is a very outdated concept. Yes. It pairs very well with how we've handled the conversation around money and personal finance and have made it taboo.

It's in that filing cabinet of don't talk about money. Yeah, you'll find out when I die. Yeah. And we're breaking through that. That's stupid. Guys, I'm going on the record to say like that is bad planning. As a planner, that's bad. Privatization of markets and GP consolidations.

What is this? This was. John, you have this chart? So there's two charts. This one is from that Bank of America report showing the growth in alternative assets under management over time, private equity and venture, obviously being the big one,

private debt, natural resources, et cetera. Let's move to the next chart. This is from A16C. They did a sort of parallel piece talking about how the private capital industry has exploded in size. And as a percent of total assets, it's still very, very small.

Jen, this blurring of the lines between private and public markets, I think it's the biggest story there is. Yeah, I agree. This is the year that everyone decided, I also want money somehow, VC, private equity. Like you guys must be doing tons of stuff on this. We are.

I mean, there's a lot of stories about the billionaires getting richer, right? Yeah. And there's been a lot of talk about wealth inequality and who gained from the Federal Reserve's policy moves. And I think, you know, the Robin Hoods of the world have given a vehicle for retail investors to finally get engaged in the markets. And this is what you were talking about, about having infrastructure and interface

to get into NFTs. So, you know, my husband... Sorry, go on. I was going to say, my husband's been trading crypto behind my back. For how long now? How long has this been going on, Jen? Oh, man, like six months.

Okay. Are you guys seeing a counselor? How'd you catch him? Yeah. Well, he was in the room like 11. He was in the room late at night and I was like, what is he doing? It's on Coinbase. This is like really freaking me out.

You know how much worse this could have been? I'm just saying. i'm just saying i'm just saying you know there are many things you could have walked in on that are way worse than oh i know i know and i was just like oh my god he is trading how big and how big into uh crypto is he is it like a huge no all right good no all right no we don't have to sit him down satoshi is coming after after him. But that just, I mean. Well, he's probably not like using leverage and doing stupid stuff. No, but he told me that you can use leverage. And I said, I know that. You know that because you guys are publishing stories on all the people using leverage.

All right. So when we think about, here's what I was going to say about this private market thing. I don't think the 20-year-olds now who are first getting into the market are going to understand or care about the distinction between something that trades on the market versus something that's like their friend started a venture capital company and they just want to put money into it. I don't think that distinction is going to be, thank you so much. Look what I got, guys. How do I pronounce this? I just go with Vuv. Me too. I don't think there's that distinction is going to be, thank you so much. Look what I got, guys. A little, how do I pronounce, how do I pronounce this?

I just go with Vuv. You can't mess it up. Vuv Clico. Vuv Clico. Wait, what did you do? I just mumbled it so it sounded cool. Vuv Clico.

I'm with it. It's provenance. This is our last, this is our, where's my cup? There we go, Duncan. To your point though, I think it's even more

than just the Robin Hoodification. Thank you, John. I also think it's, you know, there's no shortage of, thank you, there's no shortage of companies that have fractionalized investing to get into alternative asset classes that were never once accessible before. They're booming. Yeah, they are. You know, you can do real estate, art, whatever it is.

Everything. Everything. Beanie babies. You take one first out of there before anyone goes near it. No, go ahead. Well, listen, I was just thinking like, why do we care about that distinction?

The main reason is that's how- Liquidity, but that's also how the securities rules were written as though, oh no, this isn't for everybody. This is only for this very specific group of billionaires or multimillionaires. And those rules have changed.

Like the, like the, the jobs act changed who can raise money and how. Look how big this, on this chart, you see growth equity is huge. Like series F is like a thing now. Like that,

that did not exist 10 years ago. Companies just went public. Yeah. Companies would go public. We're going to see like series. After two or three rounds. Double A. Double H. It's going to go all around the alphabet. And it's going to be public after two or three rounds. Double A. Double H.

It's going to go all around the alphabet. And it's going to be like series double A at 2.3 trillion. That would be what the new tech bros are like. What are you on, bro? I'm on triple B now. It's like, you've been around 12 years. You're not public yet? No, that's my 43.

They keep giving us money. How many down rounds have you had? Like 18? But now you have platforms where these things can trade. So they're de facto not private equity anymore. But that's what I was talking about. I mean, I'm all for it. I think that the new players in the market should be engaged in stocks, bonds, private capital.

It shouldn't be just relegated to high net worth. Right. They're getting, if you're just waiting for things to hit the public market, you're late. Absolutely. And that is another form of, I think, like another reason for this huge divide, this huge wealth gap. Right. You can't have 10% of the people take 100% of that opportunity and then wonder why, oh,

why do we still have the same people getting- Are we going to democratize venture capital investing? I feel like, how do you do that? Just crowdfund it? Well, Vanguard's going to launch a private equity fund for public investors. It'll start, but it'll start with high net worth. Sure. But it's one further step.

VC DAOs. VC DAOs? Yeah. That's crowdfunding. That's decentralized. You can vote on what companies you want to buy, set some rules in the contract. Boom, off you go. It'll pull in money. So you could do a crowdsourced venture fund, let the crowd vote. Yep. Doesn't that run against what's historically worked in venture? Isn't everything that's going on right now running against what historically is in a financial textbook? Oh're going to cheers. He just started drinking.

We can't actually toast physically. I know. Cheers. To VC Dow's. To 2024 when this thing is behind us. Just think ahead. All right, guys. Christmas, New Year traditions. Besides

listening to sirens in my conference room, what are we? Jen, you're going to Hawaii. Yours is definitely going to be more interesting than the rest of ours. Yeah, I'm actually. Do you do this every year? Yes. Other than 2020? Yeah, I do this every year.

And this year, I really I have to see my parents because I haven't seen them in two years. What's Hawaii like at Christmas time? Is it like an Elvis song? Yes. It is, right? Yeah. It's amazing. It's really great.

Can you do your stuff remotely like everyone else? Some weird work hours, right? Why can't you get up at 3 o'clock in the morning? I have to wake up at 2.30 or something. 2.30 a.m.? Yeah. That's not sustainable. 9.30?

Is that market open? Like 7.30 here. Well, maybe you can cover, maybe you could take over the China coverage. No, just cover the metaverse. Yeah, just cover the metaverse. It never sleeps. And most stupid things are bought at 1 a.m., it turns out. So I'm just, listen, I'm just spitballing.

I'm trying to give you some options. Thank you. How long are you going to go for? Two weeks. But it's amazing. You just never know what's going to happen, right? I mean, the last 48 hours have been wild. Yeah.

For New York City, for the world. They canceled the Christmas show. Rockettes are done. They're going to cancel. Watch. They're going to cancel New Year's Eve. Who knows what Biden's going to say tomorrow? He's addressing the nation.

So. He's going to win us all over. Listen, I think they're going to cancel New Year's Eve Times Square. They're like, as it is, we were requiring vaccines. Oh, yeah. Last year it was empty. Remember? That was so weird.

Well, they invited. Wasn't it? Rooftop. Invited Mariah. Stuff. They invited health care workers. Nick Cannon. invited healthcare workers. Nick Cannon. Frontline workers. Maybe they should do that again.

I don't think we need 250,000 people cramming into a... No way it's happening. There's no way it's happening. Zero. But did you see Anderson Cooper and Andy Cohen get really... They were shit-faced. It was the best thing that could happen.

It's the best part of CNN. This year it's Miley Cyrus and Pete Davidson. Pete Davidson. What a combo. On what channel? They're trying to energize the younger base on that. It's NBC. Well, I might watch that.

I would watch the shit out of that. I like both of them. I find them both to be fascinating. They're iconic. They're not going to be fascinating. They're iconic. They're not going to be funny. Maybe. Pete will slip in some funny. I don't find him funny at all. I find him interesting. He's like a curiosity.

Yeah, he's interesting. I saw him do stand-up and I saw... It's no offense. I'm not trying to say anything nasty, but I saw him do stand-up at Jones Beach a few years ago. Not a great place for comedy. But there were other comics who killed. There were other comics who killed.

I think he was second to last right before John Oliver. Yeah, but you could be funny and bad at stand-up. This is bad. This is 20... I watched his Netflix stand-up. This is true story. I'm going to love it. It was a C. This is 2016. Wait, it's 2016 and Pete Davidson bombed

at Jones Beach. No offense. And I feel like that's his audience there. He should not have bombed there, right? And then after him, John Oliver comes up and starts doing anti Trump shit. I've never seen a building empty out this fast because it's Nassau

County. Like you're in the heart of Trump country. And so he's like, I'm not going to do a lot of stuff on Trump. And then he does 10 minutes on Trump and the place is a ghost town after. People weren't yelling or angry. They just didn't want to hear it. So that was not a great comedy show,

I think is what I'm trying to say. I don't find Pete that funny, but I think he's fascinating. So I'll probably watch him. But wait, but you would agree that- I like Miley Cyrus. You could be funny and bad stand-up. It's a different beast.

Right, but he was a stand-up comic. It's not like he's never done it before. He's not great. He's not that funny. Alright, so you're going to Hawaii. Where are you going? Manalapan? Are you going to Florida? No. I have a new annual tradition.

It's called avoid COVID. Um, it's the second year we're doing this. Oh, you f*** that up. Yeah. Um, and I'm going to be at home, uh, watching, you know, the collapse of my local community as Omicron spreads its ways. And look, I say this not to bump. It's so touching.

It's going to happen. It's going to happen. Let's get to endemic mode. Wait, what's going to happen? What are you saying is going to happen? It's get to endemic mode. Wait, what's going to happen? What are you saying is going to happen? It, Josh. No. No, I just think that there's a really good chance you're going to

get infected. You have a family in Florida. You're not going to see them this year? No. They're not coming up? No, I'm going to stay home and celebrate with the kids and we got a few friends who are sticking around and I'm sure we'll have some play dates. Listen, I wasn't going to do this. What? You can come to my house. Wow. I will be in Florida. Oh, cool. You got a few friends who are sticking around. And I'm sure we'll have some play dates. Listen, I wasn't going to do this. What? You can come to my house. I can?

Wow. I will be in Florida. Oh, cool. You got a pool. Pool's still open. You can go to my house. Pool's still open? I'm really hoping to get to Boca.

You should. Del Rey, et cetera. You going to take my mom out? I will. Thank you. That's what I'm... And what are you? You're home?

Yeah, I'm nothing. You're going to come here and make memes? I'm a goner. Dude, we got two little kids. Michael, I'm speaking for Michael and myself here. Duncan, when do you leave? I'm heading out on Thursday. Where are you going?

North Carolina. And then we were supposed to go to Disney World. But we'll see about that. You were going to fly from North Carolina to Orlando? No, we were going to drive. Oy vey. What is that? 10 hours? Basically what it takes to get from here to North Carolina. We drive down there too. That's double the

length of the drive? Yeah, I like driving though. Okay. Road trip. Yeah, as long as there's not traffic. When was the last time you were at Disney? Two years ago or something. Okay. I might be done with Disney forever. Really?

My kids are 12 and 15. We went. I don't think I'll get invited with the grandkids. I'm sad about this. I love Disney. I was the last person there before they shut it down the first go around. Shut up. I was there February 29th through like, no, February 26th through like March 1st.

What was it like? What was, did anyone care? It's Florida. Nobody cared, right? Well, it's not that, I mean, no, you're thinking of Florida like after. This was like before. This was before we shut down.

So like nobody was talking about it and there were Purell hand sensors everywhere. And I was just trying to see if people were talking about it in the lines. That's during a time where there's still like tourists coming from Europe and China and stuff. Dude, all we were saying to ourselves, we're just looking around with this melting pot that is Disney. And we're just like, we're like, does that guy look like he was skiing in the Italian Alps or what?

Oh, I will never forget standing in like the packed queue of the little mermaid theater thing with my daughter and wife. Weaving into your shirt. Oh, and some lady is just hacking up a lung. And I'm just like, well, we're not in the right place. Yeah, at least the kid's having fun. Yeah, it was a small world after all. Yeah, we made it home. I was like, what did we, what just happened?

And we did it. We pulled it off. All right, let's do favorites. And then we're going to guzzle the rest of this bottle of Vouv. And then we're all going to do a PCR test. All right, I'm going to go first. rest of this bottle of Vouv and then we're all going to do a PCR test. All right. I'm going to go first. Ben Affleck is f***ing back

and I didn't realize that I actually like him. Same. You didn't realize it either? I really like him. But how back is he? He is so back. He's inescapable. I said this.

What did I say, Doug? The backlash is going to happen all over again. He's so back. What did I say in my tweet to you? Tell downtown. Yeah, read us Jen's tweets, please. When did you tweet it? I'm not trying to be like, oh, I didn't get it.

Which one? I said it was a huge year for you. You're muted. Oh, thank you. Yeah, that's right. She said it was a good year for me, Ben Affleck, and Pete Davidson. She hit all of it. So we hit it all.

He's super back. Thank you for the win. Why is he back? What is he promoting? I don't even know. The last duel. He's promoting Jennifer Lopez. Which was already a bomb he back what is he promoting I don't even know the last duel which was already a bomb yeah but he also

talked about second chances oh he was amazing he talked about what second chances he's given a second chance in love in his career

in his personal life I have never I've never heard a celebrity that's gone through what he went through Duncan you like that what happened

I said, what second chances? Duncan's cracking up. I thought it was a movie title. Yeah. I thought it was a movie. I said, oh,

I never heard of that one. I've never heard a celebrity be that honest about like what it was like to live through this period where everyone on earth thinks you're a piece of shit. And yeah, he's the smoking cigarette me. Yeah. And the Dunkin Donuts and the coffee yes

oh falling yeah but it kind of was inexplicable why everybody all of a sudden hated him so much other than he was so famous

and J-Lo was so famous and the two of them together was like the sun colliding with the moon well also he just kept going to rehab like he f***ed up a lot yeah

oh yeah he talked about it on Howard Stern his roles also the way you think about him from the roles the little kind of rough going to rehab. Like he fucked up a lot. Yeah. Oh yeah. He talked about it on Howard Stern. His roles also, the way you think about him from the roles, the little kind of rough, a little too rough around the edges kind of, you know,

typecasting going on here. I don't know. That's kind of how I think of him. I'm very happy. I'm very happy that he's getting like a, I don't know what to call it. A comeback, I guess.

I love his movies. Yeah. I think he's great. And I didn't realize that I liked him. And on Howard Stern, he was very honest. And then he did The Ringer, and he got very deep into the weeds on movie making.

And he's like, no shit. He had a great line. He's like, it's not like I'm getting scripts. He's like, ah, Scorsese? Nah, pass. So I thought that was very good. Here's the other thing. All the stuff we're talking about with lockdowns and the imposition on our lives because of Omicron, whatever.

This is totally by accident, but I just picked up The Splendid and the Vile by Eric Larson. You read all his books, right? Yeah. This is like the perfect book for right now. This is London in 1940 when they know the bombers are coming from Germany. And it's not if it's when and how Churchill kind of like has to figure out the answers to something that has no

answer and just what it was like living there. Eric Larson uses people's real diaries to write this book. So he's not like reading other history books. He went to like original source material, which is people used to keep diaries. That's where I got that line. No color left unturned. It was from that book.

It must have been from that book. That makes sense. Anyway, it feels like it's the perfect book for this moment. It's basically like a city that's about to be under siege and people trying to live normal lives despite it. Omicron is Germany. Omicron would be Germany. All right, Michael. So I drove

home last night from upstate New York and I listened to a podcast. Humblebrag. Yeah, Humblebrag. From upstate. How's that a Humblebrag? I don't know. Called Our Thing.

Vacation property. Called Our Thing. I'll have more. It is a podcast. Who needs more? Listen to this. You would love this. Everyone would love this.

It's a podcast with this guy called Sammy the Bull. Gravano. You heard this? This is Gotti's number two that flipped on the whole mob. Everyone would love this. It's a podcast with this guy called Sammy the Bull. Gravano. You heard this? This is Gotti's number two that flipped on the whole mob. He's the one that killed Paul Castellano at Sparks. Yeah. It is so good.

Wait, the podcast is called Our Thing? Yeah, it's his podcast. Oh, shit. It's just him telling stories. I didn't even know this existed. Me either. I'll listen to this tonight. Somebody put me onto this. It's so good.

Really? It's so good. Really? It's so good. Is he like funny or is he like very dead serious? He sounds like Ronnie Mund but he actually killed people. And he was talking about the first time he saw

the Godfather. He's like, that was us. That was us. It's so good. Oh, really? It's like three seasons, four seasons.

It's excellent. Big mafia guy, mafia movie guy, Godfather, Goodfellas. I love him. I know you are. No, I love them all like three seasons, four seasons. Excellent. Big mafia guy, mafia movie guy, father of Goodfellas. I love him all. I know you are. No, I love him all. But I'm not like, you know, I'm not like. I saw Casino again this week. That, see, that might be my, that actually

might be my favorite. Two nights ago, Robert goes, you're watching this again? This was on last week. It's like, yeah, but it's on again. It's on again. It's just so raw. It's so perfect. Mike keeps watching Casino to see if he missed the scene where Paki makes an appearance. It hasn't happened raw. Mike keeps watching Casino to see if he missed the scene where Paki makes an appearance. It hasn't happened yet. That and Goodfellas.

That followed by Goodfellas. And people would be mad if I was like, well, where's Godfather in there? I like Casino more than all of them. Jen, favorites. What did you bring us today? Tiger and Charlie Wood. All right. What's that?

They played together. Who are they? I'm just kidding. Wait. So why were you so into it? Are you a golfer? No, I'm not a golfer, but I saw both of them in this, I think it was a charity. See, I'm not a big golf fan, but I saw them on TV and I thought, wow, it's nice to see Tiger back after a tumultuous year. But you know the clock is always ticking on that.

Every time he comes back, it's like, how long could he stay back? Yeah, exactly. It'll be about as bad. But it was nice to see him and his son together playing. Yeah. And he played with Cathie Wood, you said? That's right. Charlie Wood.

Jeff Gundlach. All right. The New Bazaar. So we listened to The New Bazaar. That's our friend Cardiff. Yeah. We love Cardiff. Cardiff's been. All right. The New Bazaar. So we listened to The New Bazaar. That's our friend. That's our friend Cardiff. Yeah. We love Cardiff.

Cardiff's been on the show. Yeah. Okay. I didn't listen to this one yet. So he brought on Vicki Bogan, who's an economist, and she talked about the psychology of how we decide things. So that was a really interesting segment. Okay, we gotta listen to that one. I haven't heard that one yet,

but I think Cardiff's doing a great job. He was at the FT before you were there. Yeah, but this is what I mean also. Amy Keene left to join him. Amy Keene was the head of the US Audio Department. At Financial Times? Yeah, at the Financial Times. And she left last year to join Cardiff.

Oh, okay. So this is, it goes along with the great resignation, great renewal theme that I'm talking about. Yeah, I don't think Cardiff would have done this. Huh? I don't think Cardiff would have like, to your point, I think he's been thinking for a long time about building his own thing. Yeah. But he was at NPR, I guess, after Financial Times. Yeah.

And I think he was comfortable. Right. But what changed his mind? I think, to your point, I think the pandemic and it's like, well, if I'm going to do this, now is the time to just do this. I mean, life is fragile and people are saying, I'm not gonna wait. If not right, if not now, when? I totally agree with you. Yeah, I mean, people are just not waiting. Congrats to Cardiff

because he's doing exactly what he always wanted to do. Exactly. So, very happy, very happy for Cardiff. When do you leave to start your podcast? Is that right after Hawaii? Do you start planning that from the beach? Oh, my God.

We'll edit this out. Don't worry. Let's see if I get on the plane. Right. You'll be fine. Just don't get tested. Just don't get tested. I was thinking that, too.

All right, Doug. Favorites, and then we're done. What do you got? Oh, I can't get it out of my mind. It's not very new, but I watched Nine Perfect Strangers. I don't know what this is. My wife watched that. It can't be that old. It's not.

It's this year, but it's not like last week. You don't know what this is. My wife watched that. You can't be that old. It's not. It's this year, but it's not like last week. You know, I knew about it. I was like, eh, I don't want to watch it. And finally my wife was like,

yo, Nicole Kidman, Michael Shannon, Luke Evans, Regina Hall, Melissa McCartney, Bobby Cannavale. It's a crazy cast.

Yeah. It's like, how do you get these people to get out? Bobby Cannavale is low key one of my favorite actors. Where'd he go? Where'd he go? What do you mean?

He was an Irishman. He was an Irishman. He was an Irishman. Marvel movies, right? Marvel movies. Yeah, he was in Wasp and Fly. Oh, yeah, he's an FBI agent or something. I like Ant-Man.

Yeah, the new husband to his wife, whatever. Anyways. What is this show about? This is about a It's like Nine Strangers. super bougie retreat. They micro-dose

a bunch of drugs trying to heal themselves the writing is superb just this cast how do you mess this up they didn't it's nuts everything about it is is it like white lotus they're like a resort white lotus vibes very funny you said that very much like that i love nine nine perfect when you were like it's a super bougie thing and they microdose and like michael shannon's there on like a discount because his family's trying to heal from the death of their, you know, the twin. And everybody's a broken character. That's quite lotus.

Yeah. Everyone's a broken character. And this lady's trying to heal them. Where can I watch this? This is going to be Hulu. Oh, fuck. You don't have this one? You don't have?

It's the only one I don't have. I gave you my password. Watch Dave. It's not the $6. I have news for you. Watch have? That's the only one I don't have. I gave you my password. Watch Dave. That's not the $6 I have news for you. Watch Dave. That's what you said last time. I have news for you. No, I did watch Dave.

I know. I should have liked it. Didn't love it. I gave it a shot. I really did. I really did. Nine Perfect Strangers could have been the cheesiest thing ever. White guys rapping makes me want to throw myself out a window, honestly.

You wear a f***ing flapper and hat. So what? I don't rap. Do you ever see me rap? You rap. You rap. You rap by yourself. Play my theme music. I'm going to start rapping right now. We're going to rap. We're going to rap bars. We're going to wrap this COVID Christmas episode up once and for all. Everyone's got people to see.

Duncan, cue my music. Thank you so much to Jen Oblon for being here. We love you so much, Jen. We're so excited for you to see your parents. Have an amazing trip. Thank you, Jen. We're so proud of you, your career at FT. I'm proud of all of you.

Aloha. Oh. Yes. Did it. Wait, who taught you Hawaiian? Huh? Did you? The street.

The street told him. Yo, Hawaii finds you. You don't find Hawaii. Did you learn that from Rosetta Stone? Thanks to Doug for being here. Doug, I heard you drove in and parked. I drove in and parked down the street. Can Michael validate your parking?

Thank you, Doug. Could you guys? Are you spot hero? On the blockchain? Of course. NFT of my parking spot. Shout out to John. John, you did a great job.

Thanks, my man. Thanks, John. Well done. Well done. Really appreciate you. Duncan, sorry about Disney. Sorry that's not going to happen for you this time. It's still mine. We'll see.

We'll see what happens. You'll get back to us on that. Listen, don't forget to watch the video from this show, which will be at youtube.com slash the compound RWM. John and Duncan will have that up very soon. Make sure you check out idontshop.com

for the latest in financial blogger fashion. Jen, you got a shirt from idontshop.com for the latest in financial blogger fashion. Jen, you got a shirt from idontshop.com, right? Did you ever receive it? Oh, I love it. You have it. Yeah, I'm going to wear it on the plane. What'd you get? The Fade Vicks shirt? Fade Vicks. Rock that shit. Yeah. All right. But don't forget to check it out. It's probably too late for Christmas deliveries, but still, we have some great stuff out there. If you love investing podcasts, Michael and Ben on Animal Spirits every Monday morning, every Wednesday morning. Don't miss that.

And we will see you guys next year. Thanks so much for listening to The Compound and Friends all year. We appreciate you. We'll see you in January. All right, take us out of here. Atta boy. I got more voov.

I got more voov. How many episodes did you watch? You saw one. One. Unwatchable. How many episodes did you watch? You saw one. One. Unwatchable. The first 90 seconds. It's a white guy rapping. Period.

It's over. I tried. I tried. The first scene didn't make you laugh in the doctor's office? It's not not funny. It's too cringy.