The Compound and Friends - Belski the Bull

Episode Date: February 10, 2023

On episode 80 of The Compound and Friends, Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown are joined by Brian Belski to discuss earnings season, recession fears, market sectors, PE expansion out of a bear market, small cap stocks, consumer staples, Bob Iger getting things done, Microsoft vs Google, and much more! This episode is sponsored by Advisorshares. Visit https://advisorshares.com/etfs/dwa-etfs/ to learn more about the Dorsey Wright ETFs. Check out the latest in financial blogger fashion at The Compound shop: https://www.idontshop.com Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Josh Brown are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. Wealthcast Media, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information. Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here: https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What do you like the most about being on the road? Seeing people. Of course. Seeing people. You know, the traveling stuff, even though, you know, with being a Delta Diamond or a Premier 1K, I'm going to say something controversial, they don't give a shit, right? I mean, you're sitting up front and- You board the plane first, so you get to sit there the longest.

That's cool. Well, tomorrow morning, I'll be lingering on like all the premier 1Ks. I got Delta Club shamed the other day. I tried to roll in there with a Delta with an Amex gold card, and they said, sir. Eliguadia? They said, sir, JFK, this is for platinum members only. Come on. Do you know who I am?

What's the difference between diamond and platinum? No, gold and platinum. I don't know. Well, I need to know. You don't have enough leather-bound books or what? I guess. Well, I'm a new gold member, so maybe I need to upgrade. Can I pay for that?

I'll tell them I know you. Yeah, that'll get you. I'm flying with Belsky, sir. It's the regular MX Platinum. We'll get you one. I'm not anything, but I usually fly JetBlue, and I can't believe how many. Do you like it? No.

I don't know, but that's just what we do. I can't believe how many categories, like mosaic, mosaic with disability, mosaic plus war veteran. It's like all these, and you're just standing there and there's nobody getting on the plane. All right.

So there's a little trick, right? They can't ask you what your disability is. You may have like- Well, I have one. I'm bald. Well- Bipolar. I've got anxiety. Yeah. Right? I sweat. Oh, I have one. I'm bald. Well, bipolar. I've got anxiety.

Yeah. Right, I sweat. Oh, I'm... If I pass, more than row five, I start sweating. I always sweat. Pass, yeah.

You know, we used to fly JetBlue too. It was like Verizon. It was just what you did. Why do you hate it so much? I don't hate it. It's just not what it used to be. It's definitely not

what it used to be. The planes are all very old. Actually, I believe on my last JetBlue flight, there was the power cord wasn't working, but at least there was no internet and my TV wasn't working either. So I'm sitting there twiddling my thumbs. I guess I'll drink vodka.

You need to download movies to your phone. How much are they charging you for that vodka on JetBlue, though? I don't think I paid for it. Just give a credit card. It's all electronic, whatever. It's in the cloud. My vodka bill on JetBlue is in the cloud. No, but that's a good point. I really don't think I paid for it. Just give a credit card. Just let me notice. It's all electronic. Whatever. It's in the cloud. My vodka bill on JetBlue is in the cloud. No, but that's a good point.

I really don't think I paid for it. I don't think I paid for it. It's virtual. I don't think I paid for it. You know, chat GBT the vodka. Yeah. Yeah. Well, I fly it just because I fly it.

And there's no really better reason than that. I don't know why. If somebody's like, what do you like about JetBlue? Really, I hate it, actually. They have the best delays. They really do have great delays. You know what? You want to hate JetBlue less?

Fly Air Canada. Really? Oh, my God. Oh, my God. Why? Why is it so bad? It's a state run. Pretty much.

Yeah. They don't tell you what's going on. Yeah. You could sit on a, you could land at YYZ, which is the Pearson Airport in Toronto, and sit there for 45 minutes, they won't tell you anything. But politely, they don't tell you anything. Politely. Do we have any earnings after the bell today?

I think FTX comes out 415. Uh-huh. Should be good. What did you think of the Robinhood earnings report? About as expected? Yeah. How did they get the fire back? I don't know.

They need a new mania. I remember I was on the show, one of the very first overtimes, and Wapner said, so what do you think of Robin Hood? And I said, never owned it, never will. Why? It's a not real company. I would have said Costner over, who else played Robin Hood? Russell Crowe. Not a good movie. PayPal. That was a terrible movie. I would have said Costner over— Who else played Robin Hood? What's his name?

Russell Crowe. Russell Crowe. Not a good movie. PayPal. That was a terrible movie. We got PayPal after the Bellatrix. Costner is my Robin Hood. Prince of Thieves.

Yes. That was the better one. That's the one. Was Lyft pre-market, or did they go after? If it doesn't have a Bryan Adams song, I'm f***ing out. Oh, God. That was such a hit. Was it 92?

Such a—91. 91. What a hit. Could it have been 90? I don't know. It was 90 or 91, but it was definitely after Tatanka. Dude, I sent Michael this clip yesterday. Saturday Night Live did very sneakily like their best skit in a long time.

They- Oh, wait. We're not on YouTube yet. No, we're not on YouTube yet. It's all pinched. I told you. That's podcast only. Oh, stop it.

We're giving them a plug. Tell Brian Adams to relax. They don't need a plug. He's Canadian. Oh, stop it. We're giving them a plug. Tell Brian Adams to relax. They don't need a plug. He's Canadian. Be careful. So he did this skit where it's a movie quiz show. So the three contestants, they asked them like movie trivia from the 50s, the 80s. They know every answer.

Like every actor, every – And then they start asking them about like 2022. And nobody has any idea. They're like, this movie is up for best picture, best actress. And they start giving them clues. And they're like, this doesn't sound like it's a real thing. Bodies, bodies, bodies.

Because nobody knows the movies now because they're on a phone. They're not big anymore. I know the movies now, sir. Okay. Name one movie that's nominated for best actor. Name what for best actor? Right now. They just put out the nomination

two days ago. It should be fresh in your mind. What is it? Colin Farrell? The Banshees of Iber-ish-ish-ish-ish-ish-ish? You might have gotten one. I don't know. I wouldn't know. No, you're putting me on the spot. I could do the Best Actors, I feel like. What is three of the Best Picture nominees?

What are the Best Picture nominees? There's ten. Avatar. Avatar Best Picture? Tar, which know one. There's 10. I'm saying give me three, not give me 10. Avatar. Avatar. Avatar best picture? Tar, which is horrible. The Banshees. I don't know what it's called, but Spielberg's biopic about his life. Oh, Fablements.

I didn't see that yet. Yeah. Well, that's the other thing. Did anyone see most of these movies? There's a big controversy. There's an actress who is in a movie that made $30,000 at the box office. She's up for Best Picture. The controversy is all of the other actors

started promoting her on social media. Oh, is that Triangle of Sadness? What is that? It's called To Leslie. So literally, the movie made $30,000. Elvis wasn't good. A Woman Talking, is that what you're talking about? Oh, Everything Everywhere All at Once was nominated.

I don't know. Watch the SNL skit. It's perfect. They nailed it. All right, how are we doing? We're good. What's the holdup? Yeah.

Duncan, you comfortable? I think so. Okay. John? John, you feeling good about today? Oh, I'm always feeling good. All right. Nicole, are you in position?

I'm good. All right. Oh, trade deadline's fast. Oh, my God. We're back. Episode 80. Welcome to The Compound and Friends. All opinions expressed by me, Michael Batnick, and our castmates are solely our own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of

Ritholtz Wealth Management. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions. Clients of Ritholtz Wealth Management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. Today's show is brought to you by AdvisorShares Dorsey Wright ETFs. If you are in the financial services industry, and maybe even if you're not, you probably know who Dorsey Wright is. They were very famous for their research, particularly with point and figure stuff, with relative strength stuff.

Well, now you can buy some of their ETFs through AdvisorShares, who has been working with Dorsey Wright since 2016. Again, they do a lot of stuff with relative strength. They've got broad U.S. exposure. They've got sector exposure. They even do microcap stuff. For more information, visit Advisorshares.com. So every morning, 6 to 7 o'clock, I work out, and I watch you on television.

And it's really entertaining for me. It doesn't make me change how I invest, but it is very entertaining and it's nice to see the service you're providing to people and how it makes them aware of why stocks are going up and down in the short term. And so the big thing, the big picture I take away is that I started Baron Capital in 1982. And since then, there's been one year where the news was good. One year. 1989. That was the year where they took down the wall between East and West Berlin.

And we thought there was going to be a peace dividend and everything's going to be fine. One year. And all the other years, we have pandemics and wars and inflation and panics and crashes. Everything. And what happens? The stock market is 800 when we start, and it's now 33,000. So 41 times. We've done much better than that, but 41 times in the face of all this terrible, terrible news. Ron Barron, I mean, that's a kindred spirit to you. That's kind of been your, I feel like that's been like a very big part of your message,

and you've been right, obviously. What do you think about that? I love it. I didn't see that part. I met him once. Okay. He was on Squawk this week. Yeah, I saw the end of the – they were trying to get him off the air because he kept on talking and talking and talking.

Yeah. I met him once when I was at Merrill Lynch. Amazing man in terms of his vision. Yeah. It's dramatically different than what they usually have on there. Yeah. Right? So I thought that was really gratifying.

They asked him about inflation. He goes, there's always inflation. Next question. They're like, no, but it's high. He's like, I think it's always been higher than what the numbers say. He goes, just look at college tuition. Look at the things that really matter. They're way higher than 2% every year.

So what? I don't know where the line is between too complacent or blasé and actually, that sounds right. But I was leaning more toward, you know what? Actually, that does sound right. Prices of everything always going up.

Always going up too fast. And for whatever reason, we survive. So I don't know. I thought that was kind of interesting. Can we give you an official introduction? I've been waiting all day for this, right? Bring it on. All right.

Belsky is here, guys. Let me tell you something. First of all, that's enough. Like, just say my name and start laughing. That's the best intro ever. Because here's why I'm laughing. Everything you said on episode 61, which I rewatched on YouTube, was right. Maybe not like a second later, but you broadly have this thing right.

Brian Belsky is the chief investment strategist at BMO Capital Markets with a focus on U.S. and Canadian equity markets. Brian spent time at Oppenheimer, Merrill, Piper Jaffray, and is a frequent CNBC contributor. Brian Belsky, welcome back to the show. Thank you. So happy to have you. Listen, you were saying things that were very unpopular this fall, but you basically got it right.

It took, you know, it took a minute. Hang on. Let me just say, we did this last week. We're doing it again. Last time Brian was on, it took a minute. Hang on. Let me just say, we did this last week. We're doing it again. Last time Brian was on, it was the Battle to Remain Bullish. The S&P 500 closed at- That's what we call the episode, the Battle to Remain Bullish. The S&P 500 closed that day at 4067. Here we are today. It's 4089. That's what I'm talking about.

How about that? Hey. How about that? Not so bad. Dude, drop the mic. Well, no, but so what I think is really important to about that? Hey. How about that? Not so bad. Dude, drop the mic. Not so bad. Well, no. But so what I think is really important to just start off with, and I know you have some great charts here that we want to get into. But what I think the main takeaway is a lot of the things that people said about 2023 that were very negative could still come to pass.

But many of these things were also being said last summer, and they haven't happened yet. The consumer pulling back, and enterprise spending collapsing, and margins collapsing, and earnings collapsing. And definitely, directionally, things are slowing down, but everybody is aware of that. But it has not had a material effect on the stock market. And if anything, ex-tech, most stocks have looked really good for two or three months now. So that's where I wanted to start. No, thanks. X tech and you can't say enough about equal weighted versus weighted. You take a look at the top 10 biggest stocks in the S&P 500, they account for X amount of the multiple and X amount

of the bad performance last year. And that's what makes us bullish when you take a look at companies overall. It makes us particularly bullish. And we teased it when we were on last time about liking small mid-cap over large cap for the first time in 10 years, over 10 years. And I think we're going to show you a cool chart on that. But no, that's what keeps me bullish. The timing was shitty, but the premise was correct. And we are starting to see that eventual inflation move from an escalator to an elevator. I really do. And this whole notion of higher interest rates, of course, we're going to have higher interest rates than zero. Anything's higher than zero. I mean, give me a break. It's not a bold call. It's a bold strategy, Cotton. Let's see how it works out for him. But,

you know, I think what people are missing is that we can actually go into a period, Josh, that is normal, where you're not seeing these crazy upside moves in either direction. And the spike in the VIX and all this kind of stuff, I think we're kind of getting back into single-digit – high single-digit returns, single-digit earnings growth, either 2% to 3% or 3% to 4%. We had 500,000-plus print on jobs, and the VIX didn't even get out of bed that morning. Yeah. So, to your point. Let's do this first chart. This is S&P 500 calendar year price returns. This is from your most recent research presentation.

Tell us what we're looking at here. Well, it's really rare to have two years negative in a row. The last couple times that we've had that has been during a crisis. So it happened in the 30s, obviously, toward the end of the depression. The only thing that got us out of the depression in this country was World War II. Then we had in the 70s, which was the oil embargo. Then we had it during the late, I'm sorry, 2000, 2001, 2002 crisis, right? 9-11. Yeah.

I would think that's— Some shit was going on. Some shit was going on in our country. So what's really interesting is all this bullshit about the bear market's like 2008, 2009 again. We weren't two years in a row negative 2008, 2009. Yeah, 2009 was positive. 2007 was positive. And I just don't see us being negative row negative in 2008, 2009. Yeah, 2009 was positive. 2007 was positive. And I just don't see us being negative again.

I just don't. And remember, the negative year that we had in 2018 was primarily the fourth quarter. It was when Powell was basically giving Trumpy the finger and was pumping out increasing interest rates in the face of tariffs. Yeah. And then we went into the Goldilocks side and the pivot very quickly in January and then things change. But I just don't see the ingredients.

And I'm not being stubborn. I'm not just always being bullish Belsky. I don't see the ingredients to have a double-digit negative year. Yet. No, I'm just kidding. I'm f***ing with you. The bears are moving the goalposts already.

They're saying, okay, maybe we don't revisit the October lows, but the gains for the year are in. Like the NASDAQ's up 9% on the year. What's the S&P up on the year? Do you know? Seven, six, five percent. And NASDAQ, nine?

Yeah, something like that. So like that's the moderate bears, not the doomers are like, all right, fine, but you got your bounce. And now we're going to chop around and the gains are in. Hope you were invested January 1st, basically. You know, I don't know. I could take this a lot of different directions, man, with the bears.

I mean, God bless them. They were right last year. Congratulations. Congratulations. You know, we've typically, with the way that we model the market, have a dividend discount model, a PE model, and a macro model.

For the majority of the last 14 years that we've been using these models, 13 out of 14, macro was wrong. 13 out of 14, because macro is dated and backdate time lag type of series. And it was absolutely right last year. So congratulations. I just find that bears are so much more eloquent and smarter than bulls.

Bears are smart, but bulls make you money. And I just don't understand. Now they're changing the narrative. It's almost like talking to a narcissist. They're changing the narrative on this. Now they've come up with this new thing called a rolling recession. I'm still trying to figure out what the hell that is. I actually, but I believe that.

I think there are parts of the economy that had a real recession last year, housing and technology. Like, I know it's not a recession, capital R, but if you worked in either of those two industries, let's say you worked

in mortgage finance, that's a huge industry. JP Morgan's done another round of layoffs. It's millions of people. What they would say is, I don't give a shit what GDP is. This is a recession for me. We have personal recessions? That's very

narcissistic. No, that's reflective. I think I said it when I was here last time too. I think I don't really give a shit if we have a recession. I don't mean to be flippant, because the stock market told you we're going to have a recession at some point. You mean through your analysis. Correct. So stocks lead earnings, which lead the economy. I think right before we were here, we wrote this piece called, in September, we wrote this piece, Hold the Line. So

stocks went down 25%, which tells you you're going to have a recession. So that's enough for me because I really don't give a shit about force-casting the economy. My job is to forecast the stock market, make people money in their equity portfolios. So enough said, it priced it in. So I don't know when it is, how it is, if it already happened, don't care. That's the way I look at it. And so as we take a look at our bull, bear, and base case for 2023, I'm set up, why should I be any different than major corporations in the United States? I really think that when we started to hear about fourth quarter earnings in year-end earnings from Moynihan and Diamond, they pivoted, they set the stage, meaning under

promise and over deliver. So why shouldn't we under-promise and over-deliver, I think, in our price targets? I think $4,300, it's in the bag. So set the stage. What is your bear base and bull case for $2,300? Bear is $3,600 on $200 of earnings. We can live with that. $3,600, you said? I think everyone can live with that.

Wait, let me just correct the record because I could hear people saying that's not what the stocks are up. The S&P is up 6.5%. The Nasdaq is up 13%. Yeah. Always more than I thought. Wait, let me just correct the record because I could hear people saying that's not what the stocks are up. The S&P is up 6.5%. The Nasdaq is up 13. Yeah. Always more than I thought. So that's a lot. So is it going to get better than that? Yes.

On the overall market. So if you go back, if you go, so let's finish the bull bear in base case first. So bear is $3,600, $200. Base is $4,300 and $220.. Base is $4,300 and $220. And bull is $4,800 and $230.

So, none of that is outside of the range of historic norms? No. So, here I'm going in history. So, I was giving you shit about the 2008, 2009 stuff. You know what's really similar to 2009, what's happening right now? So, what does that mean? If you go back and look at March to kind of June, July of 2009, what's happening right now. So what does that mean? If you go back and look at March to kind of June, July of 2009, it was a low quality prior cycle leadership that was leading us.

Is that right? Yeah. Oh, okay. So I remember I just got pushed out of Merrill Lynch and I was at a place called Oppenheimer and we were super bullish jumping up and down saying, this is a generational time to buy stocks. Everyone's super negative. It was climbing the wall of worry. And it was low quality, emerging markets, and commodities again. And then we started to see the semblance of leadership change with consumer and technology. So what's happening now? You had the stuff that got beat up last year, LEED. Thank you, Brian, whether or not that's tax loss selling or whatever,

has come back. But I don't know if we can continue to have gains in some of the meme stocks or the crypto. You need a handoff to real companies. We need a handoff to real companies with real cash flow and real earnings. And that's why we still believe in value, GARP, and SMIT. Okay, over low quality, over small growth,

et cetera. Or high, let's say high multiple tech, which I think is one of the four horsemen of the apocalypse. We're going to get into the sector stuff because you had some really interesting stuff there. But for your bear case, $200 worth of earnings, $3,600 price, that's not so bearish. An 18 multiple on earnings like that? Exactly. But he made— Not so bearish. Do you really think that I'm going to—

Honestly. Give me 30. If that's the bear case, I'll be fine with that. Do you really think I'm going to give that kind of gratification to those people out there that are saying $3,000 in $200 earnings, meaning let's go look at the textbooks that say 15 PE times 200 gets you $3,000, right? Come on, give me a break. I mean, if you saw the movie Deadpool, he talks about lazy writing, right? That's lazy math. That's just simple. I don't see how we get there.

I don't see how we can get to $200 earnings. I just don't. If we went to 3000, I don't think we could stop there because that would be indicative of something really being wrong. Really wrong. And then you have exactly. So what, what goes wrong? Is it inflation reaccelerates? Is it earnings are just way, way worse or the consumer is out of rope and they've expended all their excess capital and things start to get really bad, really fast. Is it layoffs finally? Like, what is it? What would, if you had to guess? I think you would probably need to see a massive reversal in the employment trends. So that's what I, I think it's a shock. Like we've got an upside shock, but like, that's what I think is the thing where people all of a sudden say, oh, it's too

late. The Fed already did too much. But I mean, look at January. So you could say that that's the thing that – You're not taking that off the table after the job support we just had? What do you mean taking what off the table? That there's going to be a shocking miss on NFP? I do. I think there will. I don't know.

So you're not – No, I wouldn't take it off. You're not changing your mind. I wouldn't take it off the table. He's stubborn. Well, yes, among other things. Let's do this next chart. S&P earnings per share revisions breadth and percentage change in next 12 months.

Earnings per share following. I don't even understand what we're talking about. Josh lost the plot. You explain this to us. So we're looking at FY2 earnings. So we're taking a look at the 500 companies with respect to their earnings growth rates for next fiscal year, which would be 2024.

Not 2023 is FY1. We always want to look out and look at the change between over a certain amount of time. And what you want to do through time is this is a contrarian signal. It's a great contrarian signal. You sell at the top and buy at the bottom, especially in some of these historical troughs, like we saw in 08 in 2020,

where obviously everybody, meaning companies and analysts, all dropped their earnings at one. These are earnings expectations for the out year. Yep. It's revisions. It's earnings revisions. Earnings revisions lower, but on the part of analysts.

Correct. And when they fall through the floor like this, you're saying that's a great buy signal. This means analysts are behind the curve. No, it means that they're getting too bearish. Right? Correct. It means that they're all kind of doing it all at once.

They're being reactive. They're capitulating. They're capitulating on their own expectations. That's what I'm saying. Okay, but so revisions are bad, but so is guidance. So we've had 50% of companies report Q4. This is from FactSet. Earnings guidance, 37 S&P 500 companies have issued negative guidance.

Only six have issued positive guidance. And if you look at where it's coming from, this is not a pretty picture. 100% of materials, real estate, consumer staples, discretionary services, industrial, I'm sorry, not industrials. They've all been negative guidance for Q1. Do you think that companies are using this as an opportunity to, why wouldn't they lower guidance so that they could step over it in the next quarter or what? Like, are they sandbagging? Sandbagging. Are they sandbagging, son of a bitch? What that guy said, sandbagging.

So for 10 years, between 2009 and 2019, we played this game of, yeah, you know, we beat the revised number and, you know, well, we're going to lower next year. Why are you doing this as Ronald Reagan? I love it. I love it. No, I like it, but okay, go on. And then next quarter, you know, we beat the revised number and we're going to buy back? I love it. I love it. I like it, but okay, go on. And then next quarter,

ah, you know, we beat the revised number and we're going to buy back more and more. Do George Bush. Do George Bush. Well, so they're lowering the hurdle for themselves. Correct. And then they're hopping over it. So what changed though in 2020, 2021,

we just wanted to, society and business in general just wanted to prove that we were alive, right? Yeah. Look at, I'm growing. Look at my company. Like everyone was so forthright. Doug, we're fine. We're fine. We're good. Think of all this Look at, I'm growing. Look at my company. Like everyone was so forthright. Doug, we're fine.

We're fine. We're good. Think of all this. Oh, that's interesting. Look up, think of all this, how CNBC in particular pivoted, especially Squawk Box. They're having all these CEOs on.

I mean, that was their mouthpiece. Yeah. They knew they could get them because they'd call on the Zoom machine or whatever and say, I know you're sitting in your ass at home. Let's talk about your company.

Of course, they're saying, we're alive, we're working. I did love that era of financial TV where like you would have the CEO I know you're sitting in your ass at home. Let's talk about your company. Of course, they're saying, we're alive. We're working. We're doing this. I did love that era of financial TV where, like, you would have the CEO of a Fortune 500 company in his kitchen and, like, casually on a Zoom. And it was so real. It was like one of those film movements where the camera is shaky. Like, I kind of was into that shit.

Yeah, it was cool. I was doing hits from my living room with a staircase behind me that leads to the bedrooms. So my family was held hostage for an hour every day. Like if you were upstairs at 12, you were upstairs till 1. Or if you were downstairs, you ain't getting back up till 1. So I kind of like that era. That's a really good point that you make. There was a concerted effort on the part of business leaders to – almost for the benefit of their employees.

Confidence. To just be like – right. So maybe they sandbagged less and now the bullshit is starting again? Now the bullshit is starting again. You know when the bullshit really started? That's really interesting. This whole thing, it was a secular trend that occurred in kind of mid-2002. I'll never forget it. Cisco came out with their earnings in kind of mid-2002. I'll never forget it.

Cisco came out with their earnings in July of 2002 and just got crushed, right? And that was the bottom of the tech market. The buy the dip, no one believed it anymore. That was the day I bought the Q's. And I remember because I was having a meeting, that's when Morgan Stanley, they moved

their headquarters to 6th Avenue where Del Frisco's building where Del Frisco's was and we were sitting outside having the meeting

outside and Cisco came out with their earnings screwed the pooch John Chambers who was a effing rock star on CBC

sick flow man he looked good talking about how great Cisco was he comes on TV and he goes I don't know what their earthright is who was a effing rock star on CBC. Yeah, yeah, Kuduro Rome. Sick flow, man. He looked good. Talking about how great Cisco was. He comes on TV and he goes, I don't know what their earthright is. And then ever since then, he was the poster child for,

oh, well, you know, we're going to, we beat the guidance number, but next quarter we're going down, we're going to buy back more stock. And then the next quarter comes, oh, we beat the revised lower, but blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah lower, but and then the game began. Okay. So for 20 years or 18 years, CEOs kind of learned there's no upside in giving bold guidance and then killing ourselves to try to hit it. Correct. And then that was resurrected during the pandemic for obvious spiritual reasons.

And now we're going back to normal and people are picking up on that as something worse than it really is. And Moynihan and Diamond started it again. They kick-started it when they talked about it. But they backed off a little bit in the most recent quarter. Diamond did at least. Moynihan too, didn't they?

Well, Moynihan's the one that he was like, last year, if you remember when he was talking about the consumer, consumer, consumer, now he's like, well, you know, might be a little tough this year. But, you know, he's starting to do that again. So that's really, I think, going back to the prior game. But it's possible also that he believes that.

Like it doesn't all have to be stagecraft. Yeah, maybe. Maybe. I mean, it's not showing up in any of their numbers, but it's possible that they think it's coming. No, I think from if you're out in the public eye like that, there's no, I mean, are you really going to be swinging for the fences now? No.

No, singles and doubles, man. Well, Mike, that's what Mike was saying. I totally agree with that. What is the upside? Like the downside is obvious. You have a down 18% stock price right after you report and you get an activist in your life. Like, so don't do that.

So, all right. I think there could be something to that. I had not really thought about that. Let's do this average change in S&P. John, you got this one? Following bear market troughs? Okay, what are we looking at here? So if you look out on average,

you go back to since 1950, coming out of a bear market trough, the S&P 500 multiple goes up six full multiple points in 15 months. This is PE expansion coming out of a bear market trough. Where did we bottom recently? I think 16. Yeah.

So we're up only like two points from where- We're on 18. Yeah. Okay. This is forward or backward? Oh, you mean earnings. Earnings, yeah. Okay.

So just on PE expansion alone, there's still room. Correct. Historically. Historically. How do you get this average of six? There must have been some incredible PE expansions. What would those have been? Probably coming out of 98?

We had that little stupid bear market in the summer of 98. 95. Well, probably. In 82, it got under 10, I think. Yeah. Right. Could have been 95, could have been 83, could have been parts of 2009. Yeah.

But 2009 was such a moving target, too, because you had, like, negative earnings for 400 companies. Yeah. And it was just write-downs. It wasn't operating. And remember, too, because the financials took TARP money. Yeah. And it was just write-downs. It wasn't operating. And remember, too, because the financials took TARP money, nobody was buying financials. Right.

Right. What's this? Relative blended PE, small caps and mid caps versus large caps. Yeah. So if you take a look at the way that mid caps and small caps

are trading relative to the S&P 500, we're at all-time lows with respect to the relative multiples. What is this? What is this about? This looks, this looks so anomalous that I'm surprised more people haven't remarked on it. Like the, like the theory.

Is it not just, am I oversimplifying just that the biggest stocks are also the best companies in the world? I guess maybe it always works that way, but the amount of operating leverage that Facebook has, that Google had, like... But those market caps are crashing, and this is still persistent. Yep.

Well, I think it's a bigger thing that we've had such massive outperformance of large cap. We talk about the massive outperformance of growth, but we've had massive outperformance of large cap and massive under-investing. If you just take a look at small cap funds, no one's there anymore. And so I think that's a big part of this, the secular decline for all intents and purposes. Back in the 2000s, we were still kind of – early 2000, we were still kind of playing that game. If you were a mid-cap manager, you were sneaking up in market cap and vice versa.

But we haven't really – they were much tighter back then. But then we've had this massive dislocation between large and small because people wanted liquidity. They wanted the real companies and things like that. And that's actually what's kept me more bullish on the market. And we talk a lot about the consumer, but we've had the opportunity to go around the country and talk to small and medium-sized private companies, and they're bullish. What if this was an allocation story where so much of the money in the market has been shifted from brokerage to investment advisor? in the market has been shifted from brokerage to investment advisor. And investment advisors, they're building portfolios based on financial plans.

And it turns out the financial plans just don't require that much small cap exposure. And therefore, you get a historic change in how much of the flows that normally would have gone to small caps just not showing up. Because look, the RAA market is like $30 trillion. It's very meaningful. And RIAs – Mostly passive. Mostly passive but also acting in lockstep. They hear about what their peers are doing and they do the same thing. So they don't want to lose clients.

And so what if like that's a structural de-emphasis on investing in small caps and maybe i don't know what would change it but maybe that you know that's part of the story but how to put it what's but how do you explain the recent crash i mean you're right it had been going lower for the last decade so that's true well i think small equals speculative to some extent also and speculative stocks just had a really shitty 18 months. You know? Yeah, we're going to throw the baby out with the bathwater. And they threw in the Russell or any kind of small cap with that.

But hearing you talk about that just makes me more bullish in terms of wanting to be in small cap because I think what takes care of a lot of things and a lot of those answers would be outperformance in active investing. So you get a great year for the Russell versus the Russell 1000. And then all of a sudden people are interested.

Think about value last year, right? Value and dividend growth had great years. And then, oh, forgot about that because tech's running again. So who gives a shit, right? But I think we need to see kind of prolonged outperformance from small-mid. So what's the last five-year run for small? Probably 2000 to 2010 or to 2009, that decade? Small does better than—

They had a great run in the 2000s. They had a great run in the 2000s along with international stocks and commodities. Correct, and value. You know what happened today, Brian? For the first time—I saw Helene Meiser tweet about this. For the first time since March 2022, there was more bulls and bears in the AAII survey. Really? First time since March 2022.

You have some really good market indicators. You're looking at the consumer market. And this is very much a watch what they do, not what they say. So in here, you're looking at disposable income, nonfarm payrolls, jobless claims, consumer confidence, consumer credit, oil prices, home prices, and stock prices. And this is above zero. And maybe more surprising than the top pane is the bottom one, which shows financial market indicators. And we're looking very accommodative. And again, this is hard data. You're looking very accommodative. And again, this is hard data. You're looking at spreads.

I saw corporate spreads or junk spreads were at the lowest level in, I don't know if it's a couple of years, I can't remember the data, but things look pretty okay. So what- How do you use, do you use these as a contrarian or not necessarily?

More so for confirmation affirmation, but in terms of big, big swings. So when it's either at the top or the bottom. What's interesting is these don't always line up. No. Okay. So tell us the consumer market indicator. So this is crossed back into positive territory.

I don't know what's in there. Tell us how you think about that. Well, remember, as we talk about a lot, confidence and jobless claims and a lot of market indicators with respect to that. But remember the consumer, given it's such a big importance of the economy and the consumer discretionary sector, if you take a look at the performance last year, just to strip out Tesla and Amazon, it did a lot better, right? And if you look at the equal weighted consumer discretionary, I think equal weighted outperformed, but like a thousand basis points. Was Tesla like 15% of that index at the start of last year or something? It was so big. Yeah, it was too big.

And Amazon got cut in half last year. Yeah. Okay. So if you pull those out, it didn't look as bad. Didn't look as bad. Okay. And now they've come back, obviously, and I think the three best performing sectors this year are discretionaries, tech, and communication services. What's in the financial market indicator?

Is that spreads? Spreads, put-to-call ratio. Why is gold in here? Gold can be a hedge. And we're bullish gold, by the way. Oh, I like gold. Not just because I work for the Canadian bank. Yeah, you're from Canada.

You have to be. I'm not from Canada. Minnesota. It will chase you out of there. Same thing. I like taconite. I'm long taconite because I'm from Minnesota. You don't even know what'm not from Canada. Minnesota. It will chase you out of there. Same thing. Listen, I like taconite. I'm long taconite because I'm from Minnesota. You don't even know what taconite is, do you?

No, no idea. No. You want to explain it to us, or should we just keep going? It's like a cheap iron ore. Okay. There's a chart that I think you're going to like from Steve Straza, who was on the show a couple weeks ago. So we're looking at the Russell 3000,

and this goes back to your point about small to mid, and we're showing the percentage of new 52-week highs. So Strauss has said, and he said more stocks made in a new 52-week high yesterday than when the major averages were at an all-time high a little over a year ago. This chart's probably a week ago, but still, point remains. Participation.

You want to see that? Yep. 52-week highs more important than all-time highs? Well, he's looking at the components. So it's just interesting that we lost the mega caps, and they've come back a lot, but we lost the mega caps and the market didn't completely fall apart.

If you had known that Amazon would be down 55 or whatever it was, Facebook down 70 plus, Netflix down 70 plus, you would have said, holy shit, the S&P's got to be down 30 at least. No, to answer your question, for this, I think 52-week high is more important.

Because all-time highs mean you've already missed it. It's over. Right. Especially considering that the last year sucked. So this is interesting. So this is a big burst in new highs to start the year. And I feel like there's probably no real signal there for like how the year ends.

But it is confirmation that um sentiment is not as bad as maybe the headlines would make you think it should be is that a fair way i actually don't think sentiment's not that bad right now like do you think it's super because everything just went up for a month well exactly yeah but there's a lot of pissed off people that pundit sentiment pundit sentiment is not good sentiment is not good right but if you talk to you know a lot of my institutional people that missed the move. Pundit sentiment is not good. Pundit sentiment is not good. Right. But if you talk to a lot of my institutional clients, they did not believe the rally, and they're waiting. For what?

The pullback. October lows. Put up this AAII Bulls Bears. So this is sentiment. Yeah, it's been a year. Almost a year. We're back at September 2021 levels of sentiment, and then October was horrible,

but it's, it's, it's notable. I look at sentiment as like the ultimate coincident indicator. Like tell me what the market did last week. I'll tell you what sentiment. Well, well,

well, well, yes. I think the, the sentiment is interesting when it gets extreme in either direction, but I think this is a combination of two things. It's not just stocks. These are probably older,

not probably. These are older investors that also have a lot of bonds in their portfolio. Bonds had an incredible bounce in January and so does stocks. And so now they're bullish. How much of this is positioning, do you think? This is from Bloomberg. Money managers have cut $300 billion of bearish bets and are now positioned more in line with historic norms, robbing the market of pent-up demand. See how it's still bearish? Just as the Federal Reserve warns its inflation-fighting battle is far from over.

Now it's bad that all these bearish bets came off because we're losing the pent-up demand. Look at this, Josh, to that point, short covering. This is from, I can't remember who, but it's the highest short covering since 2016, last week. The New Year surge forced many investors who had expected a slow start to cover bearish positions. A basket of the most shorted stocks trapped by Goldman gained 21%,

as the S&P added almost 8% so far this year. Quote, our equity futures positioning proxy has moved closer to the middle of its historical level, suggesting that the previous equity shorts or underweights of last October have been largely covered. That's a strategist at JP Morgan. 300 billion worth of bearish positions sounds like a lot. Is this noteworthy or not really? It's a great question. Again, I think the hedge funds had a great year last year. So congratulations. I think they started to believe their own bullshit heading into this year that the first half was going to suck and they got squeezed. But going back to looking at sentiment in particular, the best way to gauge

sentiment is go out and talk to clients. And the majority of clients that I talked to did not believe the January rally. Just in hedge fund or just across the board? Across the board. Yeah. Institutional long only money. So that's why it doesn't surprise me to see February being, for all intents and purposes, more mixed, quite frankly. Okay.

This is you. Percentage of stocks outperforming trailing 12 months. This is an amazing chart. Yeah. Let's stick on this for a minute. So this should favor the stock pickers, finally. Yep. So tell us what's going on in the first pane. So this is a chart that we put out every month in our monthly chart book. And it shows the percentage of stocks outperforming the S&P 500 over the trailing 12 months and shows that trend.

So you saw that going down, down, down for the majority of really for 10 years, right? Fang. And then you've seen a decided change in that, especially heading into the end of the year. What's really interesting, if you also overlay earnings revisions, the second half of the year, especially the fourth quarter, earnings revisions in tech, the earnings stability score for tech, if you just take a look at the standard deviation of earnings, spiked for the first time in several years, meaning analysts are all over the place. They didn't know, right? Now you're starting to see analysts tighten up their – The consensus is getting tighter. Correct. Again. So, the standard deviation is dropping again. So, if you take a look at stability of earnings, tech is still the most stable earner in the S&P 500, believe it or not.

Really? Yes. And way more than Staples, by the way. We're going to get into that in a second. And as you know, I hate Staples. But this is a promising thing. I hate staples. But this is a promising thing. I hate OfficeMax. You're saying 60% of stocks are outperforming the S&P index over the last – like trailing 12 months. Like that seems like a very high percentage.

That's a lot of dispersion. That's like a lot going on. Then if you take a look at where we've seen from a sectoral basis and all these bets with respect to, let's say, energy and utilities, right? Where the majority, all the stocks, like 100% of the stocks in energy have all performed. Right. Which you would have expected. Yeah. So that tells me that it's over. Once it reaches that point, that's consensus. Super consensus. That's interesting.

So what does it say about real estate that only 30% are outperforming the S&P? Is that where the opportunity is? Yeah, I think, well, again. Or a clue? REITs are a great theme. Depends upon if you want to buy it. Not office REITs. Well, technology REITs or industrial REITs, right?

Hospital REITs. Hospital REITs, apartment REITs or industrial REITs, right? Hospital REITs. Hospital REITs, apartment REITs. What was the REIT that you spoke about years ago that did all of Amazon's… PLD. PLD. How are they doing? The largest. I mean, it's been a good stock.

I don't know where it is right now. I have since left the building on that. It's whatever. VNQ is in a no man's land. The Vanguard REIT index ETF like the main one because people don't follow indexes anymore they follow ETFs it's like in the middle of nowhere basically

Simon Property looks pretty good yeah well Simon Property is like the closest REIT to playing the consumer yeah I want to talk about Staples because Brian a couple of weeks ago Vornado still looks like shit, by the way. Vornado.

Whatever. It's Vornado to me. Josh and I were talking about consumer Staples, and I was looking at Walmart, Pepsi, and all the names, and I was saying, why the hell are these stocks trading at such expensive multiples, whatever multiple you're looking at? So you write in your sector summary, defense is expensive and excessively consensus, largest relative valuation expansion in decades. Please opine. What are these stocks trading at right now? Let's start with that.

What was Pepsi, like 23, 24, 25? So if you take a look at the consumer staples multiple, relative multiple, if you take a look at the consumer staples multiple, relative multiple, it expanded in 2022 more than it ever has in the history of the sector relative to the market. This is because long onlys have to buy something and that's the perceived safest thing to buy in a bear market.

Staples, utilities, and then playing the energy trade. Yeah, because it was working. Because it was working. So utility is also very expensive. Yeah, I mean, all these people talk about avoid long duration assets, right? Meaning high multiples. So what's shorter duration than sales?

And then they buy Pepsi at 30 times earnings. Or they look like, I mean, you were talking today about NextEra, great company, right? If you remember, I was thinking about this when you were talking about it today. I didn't have a chance to talk on TV, by the way, today. But NextEra was a hedge fund darling. Yes.

And then I got crushed in 2020. That's when I bought it. I bought it in March 2020. I still own it. But you buy it at 40? Yeah. Yeah, yeah. And I, of course, write checks to FPL every month.

I'm living in Florida. But it's the problem with, and it even goes back to the small cap. It's not cheap right now. No, no, it's not cheap. But so I'm worried about the market. I'm going to buy utilities and staples kind of blindly, right? Or I want liquidity. I'm just going to buy large cap. So it's just, it's these binary decisions that I think the majority of that's over. Now, what's really interesting about Staples is the sector's going to get bigger because there's going to be some new stock constitution. I think it's in later.

I think it's in March where they're going to take out a bunch of tech stocks and put them in financials, meaning payments. I think Russell is in June or May. Wait, tax to financials? So Visa, PayPal, the payment are going into financials. Target is leaving discretionary.

Going to Staples? Going to Staples. That's where it belongs. Of course it does. That makes sense. Of course it does. But I mean- That's S&P.

That's the S&P. Yeah. But that's going to shake up. So that's actually, to me, bullish tech. If you have 300 or 400 basis points you're taking out of tech, I don't want to be more than 25% of my portfolio in tech. But think about this. If you're taking out 300 or 400 basis points you're taking out of tech, I mean, I don't want to be more than 25% of my portfolio in tech. But think about this. If you're taking out 300 or 400 basis points out of tech, that gives you an opportunity to be a little bit more selective and you actually can be overweight tech.

So you're saying there's going to be more staples in the index now? Correct. But look at this. So, Brian, within staples, you break this down into beverages, food and staples, retailing, food products, household products, personal products, tobacco. Why are beverages trading at 25 times earnings? Why are household products— Let's not rush to judgment. It's possible that Coca-Cola is about to make an AI announcement.

Why are household products trading at 25—why is toilet paper trading at 25 times earnings? How soft is it? Clorox has a blockchain announcement coming. That's got to, I don't know. Safety, safety, safety. Same thing. I was going to say that. It's too much.

Where's your safety when you're paying the highest multiple in 20 years for these stocks? No. You don't have any. Yeah, no. I mean, well, except for tobacco. But what do we mean by safety? We mean lack of volatility in the share price? Check.

Stable earnings? Stable earnings? Check. Stable demand? Yeah. So, like, that's the safety component. I don't know if it'll show up in what the stock actually does. No, but if you—

That's how people feel. That's why if you take a look at valuation, you take a look at earnings growth, they're not defensive like they used to be. Period. Maybe tobacco is because they're cheap, but they're cheap for a reason. Well, how do we define defensive? Are we talking about the stock price? I always grew up learning that no matter what, you smoke or drink, right? And actually, you smoke and drink more during recessions. Guilty.

Bingo. So that from an inherent storytelling and thematic, that's why you want to own staples. Everybody gets that. Everyone agrees to that. Everyone gets that. Everyone gets it. It's easy. It's easy peasy. But now, I think that they've overstayed their welcome. I mean, it has some fundamental problems. General Mills has some fundamental problems. Kellogg's has some fundamental problems. Campbell Soup does. I mean, do you really want to own

these names in here? And the answer to me would be no. Right. So that's a source of opportunity for other sectors that might now be underweighted because of this perceived risk versus perceived safety stuff. Correct. But, I mean, honestly, the financial world is disconnected from the real world.

If you actually go talk to the real world people walking down the street, do you think people think we're in a recession? Duncan, want to weigh in? I mean, things seem okay in New York. Okay. People aren't walking around saying we're in a recession? Duncan, want to weigh in? I mean, things seem okay in New York. Okay. People aren't walking around saying we're in a recession? No, but I'm hearing. Okay. John, what about you? Yeah, same. Okay. I would say the same. Like from people I talk to in my real life. It doesn't come up in bars and stuff. Like they're just like, yeah, Biden sucks or whatever, but they're not like

the economy is terrible. Nobody's really saying that. Shut down the balloon, man. There's a little balloon chatted. General Mills, price to sales ratio. Why? Why is it going up and up and up? General freaking Mills. Safety. Yo play, baby.

Let's talk about, you did a chart. You've got all these valuation composites. Here is communication services. So Google is in the midst of its worst two-day return since March of 2020. Google's down 12%. I know we're going to talk about that in a little bit. So a lot of air came out of here. What's in communication services?

It's Facebook and Google. Because it's only existed for three years as a sector. So they pulled stuff out of tech. And they put it in here. Right. Netflix, Facebook, Google. Yeah, Netflix machine, the Google machine, Meta, Disney, Comcast. Right.

Verizon, AT&T. They all got killed. It's a weird mix of – it's a weird mix because you've got some of the highest tech firms and then like baby bells. By the way, AT&T and T-Mobile are in here. Yeah. Yeah. It's a weird mix of stocks. They took the telecom sector and they took some out of tech and they put it in there.

So to me, there's two things. It's the quintessential barbell sector, right? It's like discretionary entertainment and then like your cell phone bill. Correct. Okay, got it. Right? And from a thematic perspective, it's the three Cs of communication services. So cash.

Caring. Cash, content, and consolidation. Cash, content, and consolidation. What? Those are like the three main things going on. Okay. That's interesting. Big themes.

So, I mean, how many streamers do you have? All of them. All of them, right? Do you need all of them? I do. We have Peacock. You know why you need all of them? Because everyone that lives in my house has their

one favorite show that if you cancel, they're going to kill themselves. That's a quote. But so this is showing that these stocks relative to the S&P are as cheap as they've been since the bottom of the GFC? Correct. And we are very bullish in this sector. That's our contrarian- Paramount and Showtime are merging. So maybe that'll be one bill instead of two. That'll be cool, I guess. I own three of these stocks, Facebook, Disney, and Netflix. So tell me more. Why are you so bullish? Because now I'm getting more bullish. Do I need leverage? No, I don't like meta. I don't like meta. I sold meta a number of years ago and put all my meta money into Google. And I was wrong on Netflix for the first half of last year. And then I put

Netflix in my value portfolio. I actually made money in Netflix miraculously. Netflix is a value stock now, according to the— So is Facebook. Russell 1000 value. So I put it in my value portfolio about a month before I got into the Russell 1000 value. Good for you. Sold Disney, put in Netflix.

I suddenly met Facebook and monetized the shit out of Reels. I know they spent a ton of money doing it, but like I am on Instagram a lot and I'm just scrolling. I don't do TikTok because I'm a patriot. They're just cannibalizing. If they're pushing you to Reels, they're not pushing you to whatever they were pushing you to.

I think the pie is going to expand. I think their advertising pie is going to expand. The stock price is saying that you're right. So are US stocks a buy? Well, obviously- Wait, let's look at this chart. So we're setting this up. This is from Datatrack, Nicholas and Jessica Rabe. So they say they have a great chart showing the 100-day rolling performance of the S&P 500 relative to international developed stocks.

international developed stocks. So they say on average, MSCI EFA has underperformed the S&P 500 by an average of 3.4 percentage points since 2010 over any given 100-day period. And right now, over those recent 100 days, they've outperformed, internationals outperformed the US by like 15 some odd percent. So relative to the rest of the world, are US stocks a buy again? This is literally off the charts. Yeah, pretty much. Right? Yeah. Literally. And that's what?

100% U.S. dollar story? U.S. dollar has pulled back dramatically. This is a dollar story. It's also the broken clock was finally right last year. What do I mean by that? The broken clock is don't be a home country bias by the whole world. By international. You know, they're the real thing. I mean, Europe's a value trap.

They're still raising rates. What are they making, right? What do they do over there? China's a house of cards. Do you really want to buy emerging markets in China now? The answer has to be no. Wait, did you do? Pushback.

No, no. Who came in here and said, where else are you going to put your money? Japan is an old age home. Let's call this now. Wait, did you do? Pushback. No, no. Who came in here and said where else are you going to put your money? Japan is an old age home. Wait, what did he f***ing say? Oh, Europe's a museum. Japan is an old age home. China is a jail. Where else are you going to put your money? Okay, but.

It's not very PC, but. John, next shot. Look at the FTSE 100. Literally at an all-time high, and it's done nothing forever. Forever. This is not bearish. What do you got to say to that? What's in this FTSE 100. Literally at an all-time high, and it's done nothing forever. Forever. This is not bearish. What are you going to say to that? What's in this FTSE? It's like chimney sweeps. I played FTSE back in the 70s.

Bagpipes. What's in the FTSE index? Is that Benji? Can you find out? Is Lloyd's in there? Lloyd's in London, maybe. I bet it's a lot of big banks and oil companies. British Telecom. Right.

That's a double top. British Telecom. What is that? Verizon. Isn't that a double top? It's Verizon. I don't think you can do that. Why?

Of course you can. I love the British. Our British listeners might be offended. All right. What is in here? Here we go. Who cares? Let's see.

Bedknobs. I'm only kidding. Just a real. Barclays, BP, British American Tobacco, Coca-Cola, HBC. I'm going in order, not a market cap. I don't know. There's the HSBC. Whatever.

Anyway, who cares what's in here? It's at an all-time high. Yeah. That's not bearish. So, all right. But it's not most of the international individual country stock markets don't look like this. This could be an anomaly. It's not an anomaly.

International charts look good. Yeah, but they're not making all-time highs. Like, I don't know. Maybe I'm wrong. What is the DAX doing? Do you care about any of this shit or not really? How come? First off, I don't have research.

I don't have published research on it. Okay. I can't invest in those companies. Okay. I can't invest in those companies. I think it's best in U.S. companies. Here's the DAX. I mean, that doesn't look bad. I think from... No, it doesn't look bad.

This goes from the general hatred of hating on the U.S. Still. Still. Yeah. Well, the U.S. always sells at a premium multiple, at least in the last 20 years, to these other markets. And if you're a global asset allocator and value is your primary lens through which you view the world,

then, of course, you're going to hate U.S. stocks relative to the, quote-unquote, opportunities overseas. Yeah. Well, Canada massively outperformed the U.S. last year. Yeah. Thanks to energy and materials. That the U.S. last year. Yeah. Thanks to energy and materials. That makes sense. Part of financials.

But Canada isn't a country of just banks and oil companies. They've got some great companies up there like Couchetard. If you know what Circle K is, that's Couchetard. Shopify. Shopify, amazing company. Aritzia, amazing company. Lululemon, even though it's listed in the U.S. Waste Connections, 80% of their business is done in the U.S.

The Rails, CP and CN. They've got great companies up there. And it's not just a bank or not just oil. Good bands too. Rush. Brian Adams. Brian f***ing Adams. That's right.

These are the top five companies. Shell, AstraZeneca, HSBC, Unilever, BPAY. These are all massive companies. Oh, oil, energy. Interesting. Rio Tinto is another one. Yeah. No, Europe in general, there are great companies that you can invest in individually, but it

just seems as though it's very far-fetched to predict a year where the European stock market does great and the S&P is not up. No, it's not up. It just happened. It just happened in the last 12 months. Wait, how much was Europe up in 2022? Dude, I think the FTSE 100 was up 8%. No, Europe, continental Europe.

But it can happen. If the value shift continues, it will happen. And it just fucking happened. The S&P underperforms. But I'm talking about, didn't we talk about this on Tuesday? Like only 17% of the time is the rest of the world up with the S&P down going back like 50 years. It's very rare is the point. So if you're super bullish on international stocks, you sort of also have to think the S&P is

going to have a good year. That's reasonable, right? John, let's move to Exhibit 30 from Bank of America. NASDAQ 100 earnings have been lagging S&P 500 earnings for 15 months. This is kind of interesting. Josh, you have this in here. What are we looking at? This is fairly rare. This comes from Savita. And I think the point is that, you know,

a lot of times you can look back at stock prices and you can kind of deconstruct, oh, the stock market was right after all. This is what should have been happening. Oh, here it is. I'm sorry. Sorry, I didn't explain this properly. This is the NASDAQ 100 earnings as a percentage of 500 earnings. of... So, like, we're talking about these decompositions and we're talking about the rejiggering of the indices and tech being smaller

and then you look at something like this and it's like, oh, well, that is actually what should happen because look at earnings. So, like, yes, tech should be smaller. Okay, so I just find that kind of confirmation like a little bit like a little bit like I like the continuity that those two things are in the same world.

Brian, was there anything last week that you heard from Apple, Amazon, or Google that scared you a little bit? No. You're saying you think inflation is about to go from an escalator down to an elevator down? At some point. All right. Like the first half? Sun's going to come up too. No.

No, I think probably more toward the second half. Okay. If that's true, then you got to believe in this Nasdaq rally. No? Like the start of it. You got to like – Parts of it, yeah. You got to look at some of these higher multiple techs once again.

It's tough. I think those high multiple, high duration assets are going to have a hard time. I really do. But if you go back to the question with respect to Apple, I think investors are going to pay for stability. They know what Apple is. They know what they're making. They know what kind of money, they know their earning stream. I'm going to pay a higher multiple for I know what the company does. And then, you know, with your tech holdings, I've been a big believer in, and I'm not saying you have to lose weight. I'm just saying you got to tighten it up a little bit. You got to tighten up your position. You talking to Josh? Yeah, I'm trying. I'm trying. It's Superbowl

weekend too. You got pizza rolls. Sunday will be an exception. Chips and dip. Yeah. No, anyway, so for every higher multiple tech stock, you should try to, higher than the market multiple, you should try to match it up with a lower than multiple stock. Barbell the shit out of that. Barbell the shit out of it. I love that.

I've always felt that way. Are you coming in here with COVID? What's all those hauls? Lost my voice. I started running again. So I love the Peloton. Is that the Johnson & Johnson halls or the Pfizer? What are you running from?

A lot, baby. Let's stay on track. Did you hear about this? The Bureau of Labor Statistics is talking about changing the way they calculate CPI. Anyone hear about this? No. Alright. Sally J. Leno, hear about this one? In a notable wrinkle, this coming Tuesday, the BLS will release January consumer CPI. That should be exciting.

Offering the first major read on inflation in 2023. In a notable wrinkle, it will also tweak how it weights different goods and services based on Americans' recent buying patterns. based on Americans' recent buying patterns. Previously, the agency has updated those weights every other year, adjusting price swings in anything from bananas to used cars and how those auto affect the overall inflation index. They give examples, gasoline, blah, blah, blah. So this is going to be a reweighting now,

it sounds like every year, which will change the basket. But they're saying don't expect a huge change to come from this. Any thoughts on what we could expect with the new CPI report? Or what you think people are looking for specifically?

I just think directionally. It's not so much a number anymore, it's the trend. And they want to continue to see that trend going down. Yeah. Services X shelter. Services X shelter. Services X shelter.

Right? That's what they keep harping on in the speeches? Mm-hmm. Okay. I mean, look how rents are high. But typically, you go back in history and see when we've had these rent shocks. Like even in New York City, we didn't have a rent shock during the vid. We didn't. Relative to 2009.

We had like a month where nobody did anything and then all of a sudden young people started taking rents again. Right. There was about a three or four month window in 2009 where you could actually even rent a co-op. Yeah. They'd let you in. But then when things started turning in the summer into the fall,

couldn't get into a co-op. New York's like a bad example for everything, though. New York is New York. It's like kind of an aberration in the midst of an aberration. Even like Minneapolis, my hometown, they're still building, building, building. And you look at the urban renewal in some of these Midwest cities, and that's been – the rents are high. Well, I hope you like your apartment because if you're going to be working from home

two days a week. Yield curve. Just, should we just throw it out? Today, the spread between the two and 10-year treasury yield plunged to negative 87.3 basis points. The most inverted since October 2nd 1981

like the police had a number one single the last time the yield curve was this inverted like it's over like throw it out or like what do we do with this this is dangerous because it's different this time bullshit

and this one actually works. Yeah. Historically. What's the joke? It's forecast the last nine the last four recessions the last nine times or something like that. Well, wait a minute. No, but this one is 10 for 10. Hang on. 2019, it inverted. And we had a

recession. Right. It was probably recent. It predicted COVID. Yeah. It is pretty good. Hold on. You heard what Cam Harvey is saying now? too many people are watching it. So it might lose its- Like the VIX. Well, not just that. Might lose its efficacy because people are now adjusting their behavior because they know the inverted yield curve is bad. And if too many people are focused on it, like economists and policymakers or whatever, then maybe it loses some of its ability to surprise us. One of my favorite quotes of all time is about markets from Benoit Mandelbrot.

He said, the trend has vanished, killed by its discovery. And I feel like this might be one of those things where everybody knows about it. And also- There's a term for that where scientists studying something in a lab change its behavior by the mere fact that they're observing it. What is that word? Does anyone know? It's called the Cam Harvey effect.

That's right. So the Cam Harvey effect might be in play here with the yield curve, or what do you think? I'm thinking more and more. It's so dangerous to say that. You don't want to be the guy. You don't want to be the guy coming out. No, well, the podcast.

I want to be that guy. The guy on the podcast saying, yield curve, forget it. It's apparently called the observer effect. That makes sense. The observer effect. All right. I'm very—

But something about forward guidance and all Fed transparency and Fed intervention in the bond market, like it is so much different than it was in, say, the 40s. Or 19—I mean, well, so go back. In 1982, though, ushered in one of the greatest bull markets of all time within a year. But in 81 – Dual deficit. We had a double procession. It was a disaster.

Yeah, yeah. You ended up with a PE multiple of like nine on the S&P, and nobody was ever going to buy a stock again. Ever. Okay. Just like no one's ever doing 60-40 again. Can I tell you something? Volcker gets a ton of credit for breaking the bank of inflation, blah, blah, blah. I also think that's when the baby boomers all turned 30

and there was a huge demographic benefit tailwind coming into the 80s. So like people want to give like Reagan credit and Volcker credit and of course they should, but also you had like 75 million people

go into their peak earnings years old at the same time. So Lyft, sorry to jump in, but Lyft just missed and the stock is down bad. First quarter revenue, they're estimating for 975. I get another guy down. The previous estimate was 1.1 billion. The stock is down. Tell me if this is bad. The stock is down 20%.

You know when you use Lyft, like you use Uber 99% of the time. You never, I mean. You use Lyft when there's been like a gunshot wound and you're going to bleed in someone's car. You don't want to f*** your Uber score up with that. So if you need to get to an emergency room, that's the perfect time for Lyft. When Uber app is

down. Don't edit this. I see you already with your finger hovering over the button. Today's show is sponsored by This is the New York Times today. Is this one of these headlines where we're going to look back and be like, oh man, we spoke too soon. The colloquial

way. What recession, this is the headline, what recession some economists see chances of a growth rebound. The Federal Reserve has raised rates rapidly, but instead of cracking some data point to an economy that's thriving. And basically, it's a good article.

It's about the narrative that everyone had going into 2023, which is that this is the year we pay the bill for the excesses, blah, blah, blah. But then we just had a half a million jobs added in January, which kind of forces everybody to maybe change their minds. What do you think about that? I think to me, the thing that no one can explain is this whole notion of how low unemployment is. I don't think anybody has a really good explanation for it. I do. Hold on.

Nor, but also, listen. really good explanation for it. I do. Hold on. But also heading into this, remember this whole notion of high wages, we can't find anybody to work or increasing wages, but actually wages have rolled over here a little bit. Now I can explain some of that because whitear wages have gone down relative to 2021, clearly, and blue-collar is going up. So in net-net, that's still the high wages are going down faster. That's why wages. But I don't – so my question is I can't explain – where I'm going with this, I can't explain how we would get a recession if we have such a strong job market. We talked about it earlier. You can't.

You can't. you can't you can't you can't you get an earnings recession which you know you you can't get like a real lived-in recession experience if everybody's working and nobody could find enough workers you just literally can't so i mean that's that's that's but how do you explain why there are so few people to work? Is that the part that – that's demography and immigration. That's it. You had a million people die from COVID.

You had probably 10 million people who said, I'm done working. I'm retiring, who maybe wouldn't have retired as early. And you had six years of no immigrants, legal or illegal, and that's how you get 3.5% unemployment. I don't even think that's that complicated. Yeah. You wouldn't buy that? I don't know. The demographic stuff, I definitely do.

But I think people are going to come back in. If you have one of these periods where markets suck for a while, you're going to have people come back into the workforce too. Okay. So then they'll come out of the woodwork. And you have the underemployed too, which was a really big deal following the great financial crisis. I remember that. Right? We talk about it all the time.

People that could get work but not full-time or people that were like in the gig economy and we weren't measuring them the same way that we measure salaried people, even if they were making the same amount of money. So that phenomenon is still with us. You know, think of like research associates or junior people in our business that left financial services in 2021 because they went to work for a tech company and then they got fired. Now they come, quote unquote, crawling back at lower wages, though. Okay. We're not going to pay what we paid back at lower wages though. Okay. We're not going to pay what we paid back then. And oh, by the way, you got to be in the office four days a week. And is anyone even really hiring in, in, on wall street?

No. We have a huge hangover from 2021, 22. Yeah. They're still right sizing that, but you know, hiring freezes everywhere. Okay. Um, the Bob Iger Disney stuff. Are you following this? Yeah. I own the stock. Okay. The Bob Iger Disney stuff. Are you following this? Yeah, I own the stock.

Okay. This is Martin Piers from the – you guys are fist bumping it out? Good. I wish I was in the stock. Martin Piers from the information, quote, Bob Iger really should have run for president as he once considered doing. His political instinct is unmatched, at least among CEOs. On Wednesday in his first quarterly earnings call since returning to the top job, Iger offered something for everyone, a return of the dividend, layoffs, creative executives get their power back. Traditional TV is still important. Streaming is the future. He didn't say anything about cutting taxes, but you get the picture. If this was an election, which given activist Nelson Peltz's proxy challenge,

it kind of is, you wouldn't bet against Iger. No. Wait, Josh, to add to that about him being a politician, somebody tweeted something along the lines of like, Iger is amazing. He came in and fixed all the problems that he started before he left. Yeah, yeah. That's great. He would have shot down the balloon

way sooner than Biden, too, I feel like. Day one. And it would have been a Pixar movie. 100 miles from the US border, that thing would have shot down the balloon way sooner than Biden too, I feel like. Absolutely. Day one. And it would have been a Pixar movie. 100 miles from the US border, that thing would have been down. So Disney's not like doing great, but they're not doing badly. And the problems are being addressed. And what I found interesting was it seems like there is a post-tech bubble playbook now. I saw this on TV today.

Like if every CEO did this, the stock market would be fine. We're doing layoffs. It almost doesn't even matter how many. It's just the point that you're not hiring. Dividend, buyback. Dividend seems more important these days. Layoffs. Dividend, buyback, layoffs.

Some more layoffs. It's a trifecta. Everything in moderation. And then saying the word discipline a lot. And efficiency. So. Like Meta did this, and they had a shitty earnings report.

Just not as bad as Feared, but they said the magic words. So you got to think about things and use the terms secular and cyclical. So do you think the communication services sector is a secular type play, right? Well, I think streaming is. Yes. Okay. So let's go there. So what we did is that we cyclically got over our skis, right? Everyone went nuts. And then they overspent and overgrew. And then they overspent and overgrew.

And then now you're seeing the cyclical correction. Back to trend. Back to trend, normalization. But the secular growth is still there. Secular growth is still there. And there's going to be winners and losers. But it's just no different than any kind of traditional cyclical area. Like think about – so I work for BMO.

And obviously I got to know a little bit about gold. And my big joke about gold miners are if they got cash in their pocket, they're digging the hole. Yeah. Right? However, the last 10 years or so, the majority of publicly traded gold companies, mining companies, quote unquote, got religion. What'd they do? Cut costs, bought back stock, increased their dividends. Oil too.

Oil too. Yep. So then apply- They stopped investing. Right. So apply that template onto these quote-unquote secular growers. You can do it in communication services,

but you can also do it in tech. All these stocks could be higher. They just follow the playbook. This is streaming as a percentage of overall TV watching. In July 21, it's 28%. And it's just growing, growing, growing. 30, 32, 33, 34, 35.

This is one way. This is only going to grow. So in fairness, though, to the communication services companies, it's not as though they were getting over their skis and going nuts in a vacuum. They were being rewarded for that behavior. Exactly. It was the market. Netflix went to $700 a share while they spent record amounts on content.

But think about what was going on though in this country. I mean, we were on lockdown. It was also a stay at home. They saved us. Netflix saved us. Netflix probably is the reason we didn't have a civil war.

Tiger King ended the pandemic. I would say. Tiger King. It might have. No, I was saying this the other day. Absent the cloud, nothing would have worked. No. So we could have really had a societal collapse.

If the pandemic was 20 years earlier, what would have happened? I don't know. What ended the last pandemic? What if we just had a really well-read populace? Yeah, exactly. Without the ability- Oh, everyone would have turned to books? Without the ability to work remotely.

What would have happened in 19- In 2003, a pandemic like that? I think maybe societal breakdown. Honestly, I don't know what people would have done with themselves is my point. So like saying Netflix saved us, like facetiously, but it probably probably helped i think robin hood maybe saved the day a little bit give people give people shit to do i don't know what else we would what would you have done in call of duty save the day what would you have done in

2003 listen to coldplay then what on a cd and then robbed each other's houses i don't know what like what else would people have done probably riots in in the street. Alright, we'll keep going. Microsoft, Google. Hey, Brian, can you remember a time since it came public in 2004 that Google ever seemed like it was this vulnerable? No.

I mean, this stock is shook. The shareholders are shook. Google market cap is down $100 billion in a couple of days since they tried to demo their AI in reaction to Microsoft and

OpenAI and Google's AI got a really easy question wrong. And the stock went down 8% yesterday, 5% today. Is this a massive overreaction? Maybe. Correct. It is?

Yeah. Google's going to figure this shit out, right? Do you really want to bet against Google? I'm a shareholder. I don't. No effing way. By the way, Josh, yes. Follow the cash.

I also don't like this as a shareholder. I don't like this stuff. No, of course. Josh, we were talking about the AI bubble yesterday. And I know it's only just started. AI is down 14% today. Thank God. SIUN is down 13%. What was the other one?

Is there a bear? Big Bear. Big Bear, yeah. What's the ticker? B-B-A-I. Sorry, Duncan. Big Bear was down 11% today. All right, whatever.

It'll double next week. All right, so listen. This is what I was thinking. Double down. This is a really exciting showdown. Microsoft versus Google. They kind of competed on office products. Like Google basically duplicated Word and Excel and Outlook became Gmail.

Like, all right, so there's like a low level, I don't want to say hostility, but this thing seems really big. Like Google has 97% of the search market or something. And now for the first time, it seems like there might be a two-horse race. I don't want to say like everyone's going to start binging things, but I don't know. What do you think about this? You know, I think about AI like I think about energy transition. So what are the best energy transition names? Exxon, Chevron, BP, Shell.

Because they have the most money and they'll figure it out. The old companies are the new companies. They'll figure it out. So that's how I feel, but the market doesn't. Well, the market might be wrong. So listen to this. In a conference call with analysts held Tuesday in connection with the Bing announcement,

Microsoft's CFO Amy Hood noted that search advertising accounts for about 40% of the $500 billion digital advertising market. On that call, the CFO for Microsoft Windows, devices, and search businesses added, here's the money quote, the coup de grace, they say, for every one point of share gain in the search advertising market,

it's a $2 billion revenue opportunity for our advertising business. These are big numbers. Microsoft wants- These are big numbers. 40% is... And if they would have said this two years ago, you would have laughed. Yeah. Like, Bing is

going to take market share from Google. Yeah, it would be laughable. And maybe they won't, and we'll look back on this, but I'm just saying the reaction in Alphabet's share price is wild. But Microsoft didn't really pop. Google just got killed. Because Microsoft owns an investment in OpenAI.

It's not their subsidiary. And there's some Microsoft worry about the Activision stuff, and people are also looking on that with respect to what's going to happen. But I think, are we running into one of these situations where the new Coke and Pepsi is Microsoft and Google? Because for a lot of time, we thought the new Coke and Pepsi is Microsoft and Google. Because for a lot of time, we thought the old, the new Coke and Pepsi are going to be Google and Apple. Yeah.

So I think that just accentuates why Apple is out on its own. One of the things that's interesting is when the fangs were going through that period of time where every month they became a bigger part of the S&P, and their earnings kept growing like 18, 19. What company could ever challenge? It turns out they have to just turn on each other, and that's how you get those multiples to calm down and those market caps to deflate. And that's what we're seeing here. Apple f***ed up Facebook with the iOS privacy changes.

Microsoft versus Google now in search of all things. That's how you get the fangs to be a less important part of the market. They have to eat each other. They get so big that that's the only war left. So I kind of thought that was interesting. You think it's an overreaction? Yeah, I do.

Okay. Did you have fun on the show today? It was terrible. This is the halfway point. So I just wanted to make- Oh, really? No. So why does it have to be so long? Brian Belsky, ladies halfway point. So I just wanted to make... Oh, really? No. So why does it have to be so long?

Brian Belsky, ladies and gentlemen. Why does it have to be so long? It was September to February. I mean, you guys are so... This is like the shiz right here. I mean, this is where you want people to be. We love it. Dude, let me tell you.

This is a top 10 investing podcast now in America. Every weekend, we release the new episode. Wait till we get into AI. The next time you come on, the next time you come on, we're going to be AI enabled and this is going to be top five. Top five.

Yeah. And you're going to be part of that journey. I love it. What do you think about that? I'm on board. Duncan, what do you think? What do you think? You know, you need to find that movie.

You ever seen the movie Some Kind of Wonderful? I have not. I do. You're in the dumper, Duncan. Remember that line? You're in the dumper, Duncan. You got to get that quote. I don't line that movie, you ever seen the movie Some Kind of Wonderful? I have not. I do. You're in the dumper, Duncan. Remember that line? You're in the dumper, Duncan. Oh, shit. You got to get that quote.

I don't remember that line. That's the one where his best friend turns out to be the girl of his dreams all this time. So, Duncan, it was the- Is that Eric Stoltz?

Yeah, Eric Stoltz. Duncan is the skinhead and they end up being buddies because they were in detention. Remember this part? Like an actual skinhead and they end up being buddies because they were in detention. Remember this part? Wait, like the actual skinhead? No, he had like a skinhead tattoo. I mean, this was the early 80s, right?

So Eric Stoltz was in... Oh my God. Yeah. Who's your job? I'm in the dumper, Duncan. Yes, that's his dad is the security guard. That's quite a reference.

And Eric Stoltz is bringing his girlfriend to the art gallery. And if you... That's a sick reference, bro. That's a deep cut. What's the best movie or TV show, Duncan? Besides Some Kind of Wonderful.

With your name quoted. Oh, I got one for you. Duncan's Toy Chest? Oh, is that Home Alone? Yeah. Prince of Thieves, back to Robin Hood, the blind helper. The guy,

he gets his eyes poked out. Oh, you're right. It's Duncan. Are you serious? That is right. I think you got to go back and watch the movie.

All right, stick with movies. It's a really important character in the movie. I'll give my favorite for the week. So I'm a huge fan of watching movies

on an airplane for two reasons. Number one, well, what else is there to do in an airplane? But number two, there's no distractions, like zero distractions, right? You're not on your phone. You're just watching a movie. So it can either make a shitty action movie great. Sit next to me sometime. Why, what are you doing? No, nothing. You sleep. It could either make a shitty action movie great or a decent action, like Bullet Train is a perfect airplane movie. I actually watched is a perfect airplane movie.

I actually watched that on an airplane. Yeah, it's so much better on an airplane. It could also make a movie that's good but boring that you wouldn't watch at home a very good movie. So this is an old movie that I never saw. It's been on my list. I finally saw Kramer vs. Kramer. Did you cry like a baby? It was great.

I would never, ever watch that on my couch. I'd be bored. Dustin Hoffman getting a divorce? Meryl Streep. Yeah. Okay, and they my couch. I'd be bored. That's Dustin Hoffman getting a divorce? And Meryl Streep. Okay. And they have one kid. Yeah. And it's just Dustin Hoffman just carries the movie.

And the kid. Okay. You want to go deep on this? You know who the kid was? Justin Henry. I Googled him. Is that his name? Yeah, but you know what other movie he was in?

No, I don't. What else? 16 Candles. He was the smart-ass little brother in 16 Candles. Oh, wow. Look at that. When did this movie come out? 1981.

Okay. 80 or 81. 16 Candles was like 85. 1984. It won Best Picture. And I'm pretty sure Dustin Hoffman... Yeah, he won the Oscar. Yeah, he was incredible.

It was 81, I think, because the next year they made Tootsie. That I never saw. Yeah, really? So if you're on the airplane, do you use closed captions? I always use closed captions. Every time. 79. Wow.

79? Really? So I would never watch it at home. I'd be bored. Every time. 79. 79. Wow. 79 was, really? But so I would never watch it at home. I'd be bored. I'd go do something else. Isn't it, it's depressing though, right? No, not for me. It's depressing.

Does it have a happy ending? No. Well, listen, I grew up with parents divorced. So for me, I felt right at home. Yeah. But not like that. I try not to read it and stuff. It's so funny.

I grew up, I didn't quite grow up, but my parents got divorced and I like deliberately steer clear of like all these shows. I love divorce movies. The Fish in the Whale, The Squid in the Whale. This is Doubtfire too. Love it. Oh, well, I mean, I was like, my parents just got divorced and then two months later, my dad took me to see that.

That's PTSD. You were like, dad, why can't you be a housekeeper? Get the vacuum out. Dad, sneak in an address. Here's my favorite. This guy, Taylor Sheridan, does not miss. No. He does not miss.

Oh. Holy shit. So Beth is one of the best characters in television history. She has one of the best lines ever. On Yellowstone. Yes. Okay. When she walks in and she says, I hope you die of ass cancer.

Right. That's one of the best lines I've ever heard. Wait, what are you watching now? What are you watching now? No, Tulsa King. Oh, it's good? Is it good? I love Sylvester Stallone. Obviously.

You gotta understand, I'm an 80s baby and Rocky is like the thing that like, Rocky, Star Wars. So, I just love anything he does, but he's actually really acting in this. Okay, you didn't see Samaritan then? Oh my God, I watched that on an airplane.

I watched that airplane, terrible movie. But get it from an airplane. It was a great airplane movie. That's the thing. Taylor Sheridan doesn't write garbage. Listen, it's not like the most intellectual show. It's Sylvester Stallone playing a mobster In Oklahoma

Just like crushing people's heads But it's just, it's great And the other one that's even better What's the one with Jeremy Renner? Oh, is that the prison one? Mayor of Kingstown Holy shit I've never seen that, is it good?

I think it's as good as anything That I'm watching right now That's a prison show? No good it's it's it's i think it's as good as anything that i'm watching that's a prison show no it's better it's a town in michigan that has four prisons in it and he is this guy on the outside that has relationships with both criminals and the guards and the police didn't i just say is that a prison show no because it doesn't take place in the prison it takes place in the town that houses the prison. And this is all Paramount. Dude, Jeremy Renner is underrated,

and it's Taylor Sheridan, and it's just everything the sky touches. Heller Highwater was great. You ever see Heller Highwater? I did see that. That was awesome. Yeah. Anyway, big recommendation for both those shows.

Have you brought us a favorite today? Samaritan. Samaritan. That was really bad. No offense. No offense, Amazon. Oh, my gosh. I don't have a favorite.

So what do you do with all this travel? How do you spend your time? Listening to the compound and friends. I will tell you, because I've traveled so much, I never used to be able to sleep on airplanes. Now you have no choice. I have no choice. And I do download

I actually the thing that I watched most recently on Netflix is I downloaded World War 2 in color amazing

amazing and I just watched the episode about Battle of the Bulge how do they do that? I don't know it's fucking cool it looks like

it's the right colors like if you just had to guess it looks like they do a good job of it. But it also accentuated how great, like, Band of Brothers was. Have you ever seen, or the Pacific? Have you ever seen, remember?

Oh, my gosh. I mean, a million years ago, but yeah. Like, re-watch Band of Brothers. It's just an amazing. Was that Battle of the Bulge? Battle of the Bulge. Okay, that's what Band of Brothers was. Remember they're in the trees and the,

and blowing up? The forests on the border of Germany and France? Germany and Belgium. Germany and Belgium. The Germans did a surprise attack, and they based their entire attack on weather. Shitty weather, super cold, and they were losing the war. And they did a counteroffensive because they knew that the Allies couldn't bomb them. And they retook ground into Belgium. And then—

That's the bulge. That's the bulge. There's a bulge. Yeah. So they didn't hold the line. So there was a bulge in the line, literally. And then literally the fog cleared. And the Allies came in and bombed the shit out of them.

I mean, like several hundred thousand Germans. they had the weather on their side. Yep. And then it's, okay, yeah, I got to read.

It was kind of the last ditch effort and then after that, it was clear sailing right into Germany. So, I should watch history and, what is it called?

World War II in color? World War II in history and color, yeah. It's on Netflix. I've seen like one episode of it and it looked pretty, looked pretty great. Me too.

I did the same. All right, dude, we're going to let you get out of here you enjoying New York while you're here I always love New York where's dinner

any good restaurants where's dinner where you going so brand new one have you been to 53 yet no 53 is

53 53rd street okay Asian fusion okay really good I've never even heard of it yeah

I'm going to a polo bar tonight, not to brag. Are you going to wear a jacket? No, but I'll probably be in page six tomorrow. Who knows? Who knows? All right. Hey, we want to thank Brian Belsky for being part of the show today.

Returning guest, Brian Belsky. Thank you. Thank you. Where can people follow you? BMO has a website where people that want to do research can sign up. Yep. Just sign up or send me an email and if you're a client, we'll sign you up. And I'm on

the Twitter machine too. I don't say anything, but also the only other social media I'm on is LinkedIn. Okay. And I put my TV stuff on there. You don't say anything on Twitter? Never. What are you doing there? I just want to see what bad things people are saying about me. Oh, come on. Don't do that.

Never read your own mentions. All right. Shouts to Brian Belsky. Thank you guys so much for listening. We appreciate it. Duncan, anything else before we go? Nope. Think we're all set? All set. All right. Thanks, guys. We'll see you next week. And... All right. Good rehearsal.

Everybody warmed up now? Put those cans back on. Here's the dumper duncan ritholtz wealth management is coming to chicago for first time in, when's this meeting with Chicago? Four years? 2018? I think 18 for me. Free pandemic. We are going to be seeing advisors that are interested in working with us.

We're going to be visiting clients and prospects that are interested in working with us. I know people say this and it's usually not true. However, sometimes it's not true. Slots are literally running out. If you are interested in meeting with us, we're going to be there March 6th through March 8th. Where do people find us? Well, infoedwardholzwealth.com is where you can get in touch and schedule a time to meet with us. The whole gang is going to be

there. It's, I guess, once in a lifetime if you really want to. I don't know. We'll probably be back in Chicago. Yeah, I guess we'll go back. It's once in the 2023 lifetime. That's right. So we're coming March 6th, 7th, 8th. Info at ridholtswealth.com. We're here to talk about your portfolio, your financial plan, your life. The stuff that really matters.

Get in touch and we would love to sit down and chat.