The Compound and Friends - Best Burger in NYC

Episode Date: March 4, 2022

On episode 36 of The Compound & Friends, Michael Batnick, JC Parets, Dan Nathan, and Downtown Josh Brown discuss: JC's charts, retail investors buying the dip, startup valuations, corporate America pulling out of Russia, the best burger in NYC, and much more! Thanks to Composer for sponsoring this episode! Invest like a quant trader with Composer - no-coding, spreadsheets or Terminal required: https://bit.ly/compoundmarch22 Check out the latest in financial blogger fashion at: https://www.idontshop.com Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here: https://ritholtzwealth.com/disclosures/ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Oh, I'm bitching. Oh, I'm bitching. It's the rumor in the green room. I think so. How's my hat? I've literally never worn this before. How about Tommy Tumperville yoloing corn futures and soybean futures? I thought I was the only one.

Who is that? He's the governor of Alabama. What do you mean, yoloing? What's going on? You don't even know. You haven't looked at the slides? No. What is this, John at Red Hole 12? You don't even know. I don't even know. You haven't looked at the slides? No. What is this? John at Redhold 12? Yep, that's me.

Is that anybody else? We're about to start recording. I'm wearing, I'm literally wearing a hat with a flap rim. Michael. Because I can't go full bald on the show. I don't have a hat and I can't be bald on the show. Oh, I like this. I'm wearing a hat with a flap rim. No, I don't care a hat and I can't be bald on the show oh I like this I'm wearing a hat with a flat brain

no I don't care who I just um I'll show you cause I don't have one I'll take a picture bye we don't take life too seriously around here

I know I know all about it yo what do you guys got for me we don't know oh my god got it oh you got for me is light beer

dan ethan's bringing some fucking hooch over we got we gotta get glasses with ice we have bush glass ice it's 258 put my mic on yeah what's going on with your wine futures why can i buy a case dude so we got some news we got some news the We got some news. The vineyard was in Russia. No, here's what happened. We were going to take 50 cases of the futures and

turn them into FTS. And then my attorneys strongly advised against that. Why? Because it could be deemed as a security. Dude, it's not a security. It's booze laws, not security laws. So you can't just be trade slinging cases all over the internet uh because laws and shit um but they they figured out a way to do it legally but i'm still walking a fine line so i wasn't it wasn't worth it for me to

fight that fight if i had to fight it and certain things have come to light new shit new shit new shit where it is worth it for me to fight that fight if i ever have to so let's go so we're doing nfts on here okay the nft represents an allocation so it's almost like a key to enter a room i love the way you say allocation it's amazing well if you're a member of a wine club like let's say you like you're a member of screaming eagle you get allocation of one case per year per vintage but then you have to buy it right allocation is not the buy the buy is the buy the allocation is the right to buy that's right yeah so okay so the nft can represent the right to buy it really brings out the blue in your eyes i think so too right oh did anybody see steven a yelling with russo about who, about, Stephen A said Steph Curry's one of the best, 10 best players of all time.

And Russo went nuts. Why? How is he not? Better than Russell! He's better than Russell! Yeah. He f***ing went nuts. He definitely is.

It was amazing. How stupid is that conversation? No, it was so much fun. I know, no, but just generally, comparing Steph Curry to somebody that played 60 years ago. Yeah, it makes no sense. What is the f***ing purpose of that? It's it was so much fun. I know, no, but just generally comparing Steph Curry to somebody that played 60 years ago, what is the f***ing purpose of that? It's just because it's content.

So, okay, so what's the plan? So we're just going to shoot, we're going to do this. We're going right into your charts. Wait, you brought charts? We don't have to talk about charts. I don't know what the f***

else you want. Fundamentals. People actually think about that stuff. Does John have your stuff all of you have my stuff okay so we're gonna go

right into JC Charged and Batnick wants to talk about how stocks are bottom how stocks bottom I think you're gonna disagree with his he wrote a post about

this is what bottoms look like you have a blog yeah he has a blog what's what's EW33 actually don't

don't let's save for the show save for the show save for the show What's EW33? Actually, don't, don't, don't, don't. Let's save it for the show. Save it for the show. Save it for the show. What is EW33? I say, well, it's gangster shit, kid. JC, I'll go and order on the charts, but if you want to jump around, just hit me up at the slide number.

You wearing a flat bill? I can't go blog. And you don't do flat bills. I don't. And I'm not. And I'm not. That's what's funny. I like that hat.

Thank you. That's OG. Did you get yourself aaked t-shirt? What? What t-shirt? Did they already take all the t-shirts? There's Naked Puts? Self Puts Naked and Fibonacci is my homeboy.

That's amazing. For you. Just for you. All right. All right. Michael. By the way, I'm supposed to tell you this. I always forget.

So we have a client who says, you guys need to make t-shirts. And I'm like, great, what kind of t-shirts should we make? And he made a list. And one of them was, Batnik's a hater. So hold on, it gets better. So I forward the email to my team, like not even thinking,

obviously they're not going to make a t-shirt that says Batnik's a hater. Did they? They made a t-shirt that says Batnik. They didn't make. Did they? They made a t-shirt that says Vatnik. They didn't make the t-shirt, but they did a design. Oh, send me one. Can I have one of those? Hold on.

May I please? I'm sorry. I got to wait. Now I have your slides. Isn't that funny? So good. What's up? Yo, Giancarlo, you you made the design for Batnik's a hater right I'm here with Batnik what does it look like can you text it to me yeah I was just telling him I was just telling him. I was just telling him. That's so good. He has a bunch of hilarious ideas.

So then we turned that into real art. Can you send it to me? Because I was just telling him. I always forget when I see him. Yeah, I'll text it to you. All right, peace. What does it look like? Is it a picture of him?

I don't remember. I always push my bald head. I don't know. I have to have this. Especially if there's a picture of him. So I don't know what he did. I forget. It was a long time.

It was a while ago. Because I think you and i were like arguing about something so the email came shortly thereafter from like a client or a reader you tried to time wait the volatility of bitcoin oh sorry time wait what were you doing we were adjusting for time yeah just for time as you should obviously hello well it trades almost six times as much. So obviously, you're going to have more volatility. How many hours are commodities marketed for? It still makes no sense. Depends on the commodities. So those are more volatile.

Like sugar opens at three and shit like that, you know? Right. So in some ways, that would make commodities more volatile. More volatile than? If they're only open for a few hours a day and they're as volatile as they are, then you would have to go the other way with that. Yeah, that's what a lot of people say. Commod they are, then you would have to go the other way with that. That's what a lot of people say.

Commodities are not trending. There he is! Oh, nice of you to join us. Step in, step in. And he's handsome. Look at this handsome man. How are you? I haven't seen you since I was here last time. What's happening?

Dude, come on, man. Bring it in. Bring it in, big fella. What's up, dude? How are you, guys? I haven't seen you since I was here last time. What's happening? I haven't seen you in years. Dude, come on, man. Bring it in. Bring it in, big fella. I'm all warmed up, though. God, look at Peloton. The last time you made us drink shit from... Shit.

What is that? This is a rosé tequila. It's delicious. Rosé tequila? Yes. And it's... Real man drink rosé. You guys will love it. Without even tasting it, I need to taste it.

It's made by Master Psalm. All right. A guy named push my bottle. All right. All right, so what do we need? Cups with ice? Yeah. Give me a straw, please, Duncan. A straw. You don't need a straw.

We need, like, we need cups with ice. I do kind of want to see Michael in a flat bill drinking tequila with a straw. Oh, Zoom, new 52-week lows. It's amazing. Oh, my God. Now, now, buy it now. Oh, you know what 52-week lows. It's amazing. Oh, my God. Now, buy it now. Oh, you know what I said on TV today? And I actually, I think I'm going to follow through with this.

Thank you, sir. If SoFi gets under 10, I think that's it. You buy the snot out of it. Ooh, the snot, too. It's enough already. I first bought it at $17, and I bought it a couple times. I never owned it, but I'm going to tell you something. I listened to the conference call, Noto.

They are underplaying the meaning of having their own bank charter. But starting in May, they're no longer sourcing loans. They're making loans, which I think they'll make double the amount of money on because it's their own capital. Right. We actually had a little debate on Fast Money the other night because, you know, when you think about the incumbents

and all the costs associated with like writing a f***ing loan, you know what I mean? Like just all the infrastructure, all the other stuff. You need a lot of marble, a lot of lobbies. If they're being able,

like neobanks are really interesting to me because you get rid of all those legacy costs that it used to take those do those things and if no one's really serious about i know there's a handful of them but i i would put my money on him i am putting my money on him it sounds like you want to put your money on him oh no no no i actually think some big dumb incumbent's gonna buy them he's gonna be the heir apparent that's my point it listen to me it's close 1074 they had a great quarter. It's down 7% today for no reason. They added a record number of members in the fourth quarter. They added 520,000 members.

And as stupid as the stadium thing looked, I actually am starting to think that's better marketing than almost anything else they've done. I was at the NFC Championship when the Rams at home beat the Niners. It was crazy. I mean, I'm just saying from a marketing standpoint, you think of that brand. It went international. They had five primetime NFL games played in that stadium, I think not counting the Super Bowl.

Yeah, it's sick. So Robinhood and SoFi are the same size. Robinhood is $10 billion. SoFi is $9 billion. Yeah, so the average account size at Robinhood, I think we did this last time. 4K? Yeah, something like that. And there's no really way to make money off them other than selling their order flow.

That's it. So SoFi has 85 different ways to make money. They're selling credit cards, debit cards. They're doing student loan refinancings. They're doing mortgages. They're doing traditional banking. They're going to do yield products. They're doing mortgages they're doing traditional banking they're going to do yield products they're doing crypto stock trading like they once they have the member yeah there's

no limit of of fun and games they can put in front of that member and i feel like their customer acquisition strategy makes more sense than any other publicly traded broker true that hey by the way yeah you know josh got a couple shout out-outs. I gave you a birthday shout-out on Fast Money the other day. Happy birthday. Did I hit you or no? Directly? I might have texted you. You did, but I wasn't watching the show because it was my birthday.

Yeah. But I heard you guys were very nice. Did you go to Polo? Next week. I was there last night. What's Polo? Is that like nobody knows that? What is that?

She never emailed me back. Do I have to worry about that? No, you're all set. Okay. Final compound. I don't know what time though. I'll find out. All right.

I'll find out for you. You're the man. What do you get there? I get the start out with a Reuben. They have this delicious tuna tartar. Start with the Reuben. Time out.

You chop it up. You hack it up. Time out. We can't even fuck around with this stuff. You have a hard stop at 430? Yeah, I just have to go over there. I like starting with the sandwich. That Time out. You chop it up. You hack it up. Time out. We can't even fuck around with this stuff. You have a hard stop at 4.30? Yeah, I just have

to go over there. I like starting with the sandwich. That's the Peter Luger's move. Actually, we're starting with Sandy's tonight. What are we starting with tonight?

Let's save that for the show. You're going to need to go over there because I want to get a few pictures. Oh, Nicole. Okay.

I'll tell you when to open it. You are the best. Look at this. The best. We're celebrating 100,000. Is that what this is? Thank you, Nicole open it. You are the best. Look at this. The best. We're celebrating 100,000. Is that what this is? Thank you, Nicole. Yep.

Okay, go ahead. You can open it. And then just pull it out. The good stuff. Just hold it from the top. Click it. Oh, shit. Oh, no way.

Oh, Nicole. Yeah, pull that up. There it is. This is. Oh, nice. I mean. Wow. You see she put the initials in the bricks?

That's awesome. This is dope. It's kind of hip hop. This is super dope. Who did that? Nicole did that. You did that? Yeah.

You don't have a Nicole. Wow. This is what you're missing. JC, this shirt. Oh, my God. Come on. This is awesome. We can obviously never open this.

It's never seen The light of day For the record But it has existed For a while Josh Let's move that So we can see

The bottle That's it That's excellent I'll move Thanos Back a little bit Alright We gotta get underway Play my theme song

Here Duncan Let me know If you can see Is that good? What about the tequila? Wes Anderson Look. Look at you. That was for Michael. Welcome to The Compound and Friends. All opinions expressed by me, Michael Batnick, and our castmates are solely our own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions. Clients of Ritholtz Wealth Management may maintain positions

in the securities discussed in this podcast. Listen, Duncan, here's the deal. Last week I wrote a post, you have to have a plan. You have to. When I was buying stocks and just winging it, forget about it. Buying breakouts, selling the retest, no, nonsense. Here's the deal. You need to have a plan and Composer is the new sponsor. That's very exciting that we have Composer on board. What do they do? Here's the deal. With Composer, you can easily build systematic trading strategies with their no-code, meaning an idiot like me can do it,

their no-code portfolio visualizer. For example, they have a strategy. It's called a composer. A compose? I don't know what it's called, but here's a strategy. Composition dum-dum. Okay. Dum-dum. I don't know. it's called. But here's a strategy. Composition dum-dum. Okay.

Dum-dum. I don't know. I just made it up. Here's the deal. Buy the dips NASDAQ. That's one of their templates. And you could customize it if you wanted to to only buy the top 10 holdings

if they were up over 30% last quarter and rebalance every two weeks. So that's the no-code aspect. Do this, if that, and you can program that in advance. You can drag and drop and you could quickly backtest the strategies from their library. Again, no code. You know what I like about that also? You don't have to sit in front of your screen all day waiting for things to happen and then manually react. That's what I'm saying. You need a plan. But you also need the ability to let the

plan function and not feel chained to your terminal. So if it's your strategy, my hypothesis is, I hope, you're more likely to let it run. It's your strategy. So go to composer.trade. It's completely free. But I have to let you know that investing in securities does involve risks, including the risk of loss. Composer Technologies, Inc. Tell them Mike Batnick sent you.

It's SEC registered. It's an SEC registered RIA. Go to composer.trade. I'm going to try it myself. Ladies and gentlemen, what episode are we in? Episode 36. Celebrating. Celebrating 100,000 subscribers on the YouTube channel.

Shout out to Nicole, Duncan, John, everybody who's worked on the show. We appreciate you. We love you. You've done an outstanding job. Did you hear what I said? 100,000 subs. It's a big number. It's a big number.

It's an excellent number. How many subs do you have on YouTube? We have like 2,000. I don't even want to hear from you. What about you? You have a YouTube channel? No. What's YouTube?

Okay, good. All the kids, is that like TikTok, but like for adults? Come on. Listen, we have a big show today, and we can't dawdle because there's way too much to talk about. We have two fan favorites on the show today. Fan favorites. Have you guys ever done a podcast together? JC and I have not.

We've done TV together. We've done speaking events together. I can't wait to see who dominates. No, I'm just kidding. It's a lot of horsepower on that side of the table. A lot of horsepower today. Alright, JC Perez. A lot of opinions. You know him. You love him. We're going to try to draw him out of his shell a little bit.

We're going to try to get him to say what he really thinks. And Dan Nathan, the lovable Dan Nathan, is back. And tonight's show, we're going to start with JC's charts, as we always do. Is this your third time on The Compounded Friends? I believe so. All right, so third time's a charm. We used to do something, like monthlies with Josh and JC

or something. We really did. We did. The Untitled Chart Show. Let's get right into these. What was it called? The Untitled Chart Show. That was dope. It these. What was it called? The Untitled Chart Show. That was dope.

It was not bad. It was a good dress rehearsal for this. The first thing we have to do is commodities. That is the biggest story market-wise. We'll get there later.

That is the biggest story market-wise. Let's throw up JC's first chart. This is the CRB Index. It looks like a sombrero. What are you trying to tell me here?

I mean, it's going up, right? But I think it's... The most bullish thing an asset can do is go up in price. Okay. I mean, that's just not my opinion. That's just a fact, right? What's the weights of this index? So it's a lot of energy.

Like 60 or more? You wait, my friend. You wait. Give me a second. Give me a second. So the bottom line is, people forget that commodities have had cycles where they go up before, right? Because a lot of investors, you know, a lot of new investors over the last decade. It's been a while. Yeah,

fine. So a lot of people just haven't participated in an environment where these things are relevant. It's like oil and gas. Give me tech. Give me software. You know, Robin Hood. Yeah. Oil as a service. Wheat is the new arc. We'll get to wheat. But commodities in general have really been going up. It's not just like one or two. They've really everything but gold. Right.

Everything but gold and silver. Base metals, agriculture, energy, heating oil, crude oil, Brent. All of them have been working. And you're seeing that here. But again, think as far as we've come, when you zoom out, we can go a lot higher, and it's really perfectly normal. Can we have a break? Can we have corrections? I can virtually guarantee you that we will. I don't know, but my bet is we probably will have corrections along the way.

What's the significance of this gray line, though? That's been a pivot point historically? Yeah, you know, former resistance in the late 90s, early 2000s that turned into support after the great financial crisis. I mean, it's quite obvious there's a lot of market memory there. And if we're above that 200 level in the CRB index, which we've talked about on the show, we used to talk about it in the untitled chart show. You know what I'm saying? So, I mean, the trend is up. So you can fight this if you want, but I think that would probably be foolish. We kind of have to throw out that bullshit that went on at the beginning of 2020 because it was mechanical. It was not—

You mean the crude oil, the negative prints? Crude being negative. Next chart, John. All right. Here we are. To your point, Mr. Brown, crude oil trades below zero in April of 2020. Wait, for the audience, for the audience, what are we looking at?

We are looking at a ratio of the S&P 500 and the CRB index. So stocks versus commodities, essentially. That went vertical. So just, you know, straight up, stocks have been outperforming commodities for a decade. And then the reason I bring this chart up, obviously we're making new multi-year lows

in the S&P 500 relative to commodities. How clean that support line is on the way up. Brother, the bottom line is these things, these things last a decade. These trends are, this isn't like a day trade. We're like a swing trade. Like these are real secular cycles. It's like a new, you're saying this is like the start of a new regime. Super duper cycle. What do youper. What do you think? Too early to say we're in a commodity bull market? Yeah. I mean, again, I mean, I can't disagree with his charts. The charts are the charts. The charts don't lie. Well, going back to the first one with just the CRB, what I take away from that is when you do have those parabolic moves, there usually is an

inflection point. There's something going on other than, you know what I mean? And so right now we had a trade war, we had de-globalization, we had a black swan pandemic that just destroyed all, it's destroyed demand, but then it also destroyed supply chains. And it's been waves of when it's, you know, we were supposed to be endemic in 2021 and we got Delta in Q3 and we got Omicron in Q4. And so, you know, now we have this war in Ukraine and who knows what's going to happen with China and Taiwan. So my point is, is like, you know, we have, we've gone parabolic. I suspect that you're going to see a huge retracement. I mean, that's just my tech, and that's purely qualitatively there

because if you look at that 25-year chart, every single time it's gone parabolic, it's retraced like, what, 50% of the move over the next few years or so? Yeah, listen, I mean, this is on a relative basis. So you can tell that it's much cleaner. So while you do have retracements on an absolute basis, the secular trend, and this isn't like, hey, go long S&P and short commodities or vice versa. It's, hey, the trend bigger picture is commodities going up. So if you're going to be buying stocks,

perhaps you should take a closer look at the types of stocks that have exposure to those areas. So is that next? Well, I wanted to go to the next one so you could really see. So you asked me about the exposure that CRB index has. So yeah, it's a lot of energy.

So let's extract that out there and take all 33 commodities futures, which is what we do here. And we equally weighted. So this is an equally weighted commodities chart. And as you can see, it's only 15% energy. You got a lot more industrial metals, grains, softs, livestock, everything's been ripping. What are softs? Softs like cocoa, soybeans, coffee, cocoa. I didn't know that either. Yeah. Livestock. I feel like you would be the kind of person. Go to the next chart.

But this is to show you it's not just a CRB index. And the bond market, as usual, is right. I don't trust people, really. I trust dogs and the bond market. And the bond market's been telling us that inflationary pressures have existed. I saw this in your email yesterday. What are we looking at? This is inflation-protected treasury securities.

So it's TIPS versus U.S. treasuries. And TIPS relative to the same maturity treasuries have just substantially broken out of a downtrend, which is just another way to confirm that the bond market is pricing in more inflation. And the commodities are obviously doing that by going up, and you're just seeing that again and again. But this is the bond market telling you that. So it's not like an opinion. It's not just the commodity players.

I just put up a chart of wheat, like literally. Like the ETF that tracks it is up 16% to that. Holy shit. Yeah, I got a ratio chart of wheat to Peloton. You would be absolutely blown away. Aren't you guys concerned that all of these charts, all of this price action, wheat's been limbed up. It's literally pricing in Armageddon here.

I mean, that's the thing. It's a lot very fast. But you'd both be right. The longer-term trend might be up, even if we'd overshot in the near term. Why is it, though, that pre-pandemic, everyone used to say that the Fed was trying to solve to north of 2% inflation, right?

And a lot of smart people said, be careful what you wish for, right? Because we do see inflation in a lot of places in healthcare and education and a whole host of other things, right? But technology has been this massive deflationary force, globalization on wages. I mean, the list goes on and on.

And the conversation was UBI, universal basic income, and technology is destroying everything. So I just don't believe, I mean, the list goes on and on. And the conversation was UBI, universal basic income, and technology is destroying everything. So I just don't believe, I mean, granted, this is like the black swan of all black swans, the pandemic. It doesn't seem like it's ever going to end. I just don't think it's broken the cycles that we had seen, like really decomposing before our eyes since the industrial age over the last, let's say, 100 plus years or something like that. I just don't believe the pandemic is going to do that. Hopefully it will end soon. And hopefully we don't have World War III.

Well, one other thing to throw on top of that is like the cure for very high commodity prices is very high commodity prices because people are greedy and eventually they'll overproduce whatever is very expensive, which is a regulating force. And I'll tell you this, from a reality standpoint, in terms of money flow and asset allocation, investors are just not in commodities. So the biggest risk to investors, you know, in 2021, the best performing sector was energy. So far this year, by a long shot, obviously, the best performing asset class last year was also commodities. And investors have a lot of exposure in growth and tech and all of the areas that have been getting slaughtered.

And those are the areas that were underperforming 2004, 5, 6, 7. So this is very similar to that. Technology can go up, but like it was an afterthought back then, I think it will continue to be an afterthought moving forward. And I'll show you now if you'd like. Yes, let's go. So here's the U.S. 10-year yield, which is really one of the things that have been driving this. So you asked me about the U.S. 10s. 2%, I thought was a lock. You know, there's some memory there. I think 3% is a lock.

I think that's where we're going. Really? Yeah, for sure. So this week is a war-related head fake. Like the pullback from 2% to 1.7 he just said faux show do you let you guys let people get away with for sure we're gonna go for one eight one the nomenclature the nomenclature was uh a lock yeah that's jc's lock of the week ladies and gentlemen today's program sponsored by fanduel all right go ahead no listen i think if u.s 10-year yields above two percent i think that's the bet you need to make. I mean, I think if we're below 2%, then you could be like, okay, it's digesting for a while.

But if we're above 2%, I think 3% is next. All right, when's 3% and where is the S&P 500 if the 10-year's at 3%? Well, fortunately, we don't have to care what the S&P 500 is doing. We can bet on specific sectors, and I think energy's going higher. I think materials are higher.

I think cyclicals are higher. What about the XLF? I think tech and growth in general continue to underperform. What do financials do in that scenario? Is it the speed at which it gets to 3% that might determine whether or not? Yeah, I think regionals probably benefit the most, community banks, like your obvious areas. Insurance has been a huge winner, right? If you have to guess, time frame for 3%, I know nobody knows, but is that 12 months or 24? Yeah, probably this year. Yeah, sure. Yeah. Maybe next year. Yeah, sure. Okay. Very confident in my assertion. Thank you, Ben. I think for the stock market, it's not so much whether it gets to three, it's how fast it gets

there because the stock market doesn't like rates moving fast. So if it goes to three is how fast it gets there because the stock market doesn't like rates moving fast so if it goes to three and it takes a year and a half or two years i think stock market in general is fine you say that no well you say it's a key point but the 10-year u.s treasury year one from one percent to two percent in a very short period of time last year and the stock market didn't give a shit agreed think about that yeah you know what i mean so but i think two to three is different and i and then when i think about you know if you took that 10-year Treasury yield chart and you back it out 30 years, okay, you take it back to 1990, it's upper left, the bottom right. And no one ever thought the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield would essentially go to zero, which is what it did when it was at 50 basis points in 2020. And then it shot to 2%. The 2% was a lot of people's target.

I'm not saying you're, you know what I mean? Like you weren't particularly unique. But interestingly to me is that what's happened in each of the last two major market tops where the S&P 500 has been cut in half. And that's why I asked you, where do you think the S&P is? Because the Fed was hiking into the top of the market in early 2000, okay? And they did the same thing into 2007, okay? And then they were doing the same thing into 2018.

The first two times, S&P got cut in half, 50%. They're late to cut and they're late to hike. It's the same. It's over and over again. But what's different this time about what they might or might not do, the rate move was really interesting to me last week. As soon as you saw that CME Fed funds tracker move from a high probability of a 50-price hike in March to basically a zero probability, what happened? You saw rates get nailed, and that was a huge move. So I guess my point about the rate thing is that I don't think rates are ever going up meaningfully ever again. Maybe they get to 3% someday in some weirdo world.

Look at what happened to the Fed's balance sheet that they're never going to let run off. That's what's different. Every crisis that we've seen over the last 20 years, the Fed balance sheet keeps skipping up a few trillion dollars. It doesn't go back to whatever the original size was. Tony Dwyer had that. I also think that investor demand for interest rates will not let yields go much higher. We've been saying that on this show. It's like if I could get 3% risk-free in a treasury, there's like 20% of my stock.

There's trillions of dollars. But what people are not thinking about is that if oil's at 250 and gold's at 10,000, the US tenure yield ain't going to be a 2%. Yeah, but which one drives which? It doesn't matter. The point is, and I'm not saying oil's going to 250 or gold's going to 10,000, but as investors, if we're not thinking that that's on the table, I think you are making a huge mistake. And this isn't a day trade or a swing trade. I think this is the way we need to think as investors.

That's a real possibility. Wilder, more outrageous price swings than before, you're saying. I mean, we've seen 150. Why can't we see 250? It's 0, too. It's amazing. 3% is obviously a possibility. Of course it's in the, nobody would say that. No, my thinking is that the demand for fixed income

at those yields will, will swamp the ability for rates to go meaningfully higher. And obviously, you know, there's a $17 trillion in cash right now in American consumers, like bank accounts, money market funds. Why aren't they yield farming? No, but think about that number. They're not yield farming enough. So you're telling like, yeah, the Fed's balance sheet's $9 trillion, blah, blah, blah. U.S. households alone have like almost $20 trillion, and most of that's not going to end up in stocks.

If the 10-year goes to 3%, I might buy bonds. It's not about what a household, whether they're going to buy bonds or not. I think it's bigger than that. household, whether they're going to buy bonds or not. I think it's bigger than that. No, I'm saying it is. No, I'm saying higher yields on risk-free assets bring a ton of demand in, which depresses- Yeah, fine, maybe, but I think it's bigger than that is my point. I think there are inflationary factors that are going to be driving rates, whether that's good for bond investors or not is not really the point, I think. No, to me, that's like the biggest question. It's like the push-pull of that. Yeah, you're right.

John, next slide. Let's do it, baby. Chevron? So, you know, rates have really been driving this rotation, right? So, obviously, or maybe not obvious to you, but we've been talking about it here on the show, and, you know, we make it, I mean, the 10-year yield's driving that rotation.

When rates are going higher, certain stocks tend to do well. Other stocks tend to do poorly. And guess what? The stocks that tend to do well when rates are going higher have been doing tend to do well, other stocks tend to do poorly. And guess what? The stocks that tend to do well when rates are going higher have been doing the best and the stocks that tend to do poorly when rates are going higher are doing the worst. Let me set this up. It's U.S. 10-year yields versus a ratio

of small-cap value versus small-cap growth. And surprise, surprise, they line up almost perfectly. I think small-cap value rallying hard with the 10-year yield. A lot of charts like this- Relative to growth, so growth underperforming. A lot of charts like this are chart crimes.

This is not a chart crime. No, it's got both scales. Why would it be a chart crime? Oftentimes when you see funky shit like this, it is a chart crime. I'm saying you're guilty. You're innocent. We have a guest here who's being accused of crimes.

I'm saying he's innocent. Crimes, bro, crimes. I'm saying he's innocent. Wait, wait, hold on a second. So Duncan, are you still bleeping their f**ks? Yeah, and yours. What's the maximum f**k? And yours, and yours.

Why? You guys are so hip hop. I don't get it. It's not just small cash. It would save so much time. No, it's because the algorithms. The algorithms. That's why you're at 100,000 YouTube and I'm at 2,000. You have to bleep the F-bombs for the algorithms. The algorithms. That's why you're at 100,000 YouTube and I'm at 2,000.

You have to bleep the F-bombs for the algorithms. The algorithms. All right, whatever. Anyway, what are we looking at? Do you want other people to watch your shit and hear it or you don't? Okay. If you don't, then by all means, don't bleep it. Do you not?

What are we looking at? Same thing on the large cap scale, right? So it's not just small caps. Large caps too, right? But small caps sniffed it out earlier. The large cap growth sort of had some outperformance into year end and that completely fell apart when we entered the new year and it's small cap and large cap growth underperforming with rates going higher, which is perfectly normal by all historical measures.

One of the reasons why you see such a discrepancy between small value, small growth, large value, large growth is because small value, a huge portion of that are regional banks, and they're particularly sensitive to higher rates in a good way. I was also going to say, we're doing value versus growth, but really, this is a battle of what industries investors want their money in, more so than... Because it's not like there's a sector where you could have the growth names selling off and the value names doing so well. They might just go down less. You know what comes to mind? We all consider semiconductors a growth sector. Right. Good example. If NVIDIA and AMD are getting killed, Intel's not doubling. Intel's just going down less. Yeah. So this really is more about sector

dispersion than it is about style. Although it's almost the same thing. Like I bet if you made a chart of like cyclical industries versus secular growth, you know, kind of industries, it would look almost identical. What do you think about that? He wasn't listening. Yes. Yeah. I mean, you make a good point on the semiconductors.

When you look at internet, when you look at all those other growth areas, software, cloud computing, they're all going down and some of these are going sideways. What happened to snow today? Go ahead. Down 17%. Down as usual is what it does. It still trades at 28 times. So I think this is a trade of the generation.

Snow has become slush. What's this? I think this is a trade of a generation. That's pretty good, right? I should be on Fast Money with lines like that. Yeah, but if 3% tenure and you're not going to be interested in half the stocks, it's going to be like the most boring show ever. What are we going to do?

Talk about like real differentials? CDs. Kroger. This is a chart. Oh. Energy versus tech. I would fade this eventually. Well, I think if we're above the March 2000 lows, you could fade it all you want, but it's going higher.

Would you actually put that trade on short tech, low energy? You have it on. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Indirectly because we've got on Chevron leaps, 2024 January leaps, 150 strikes. What does that look like year to date, like the discrepancy between energy and tech? It must be massive.

Oh, my God. I think it's one of the biggest, I mean, go back in history and pick two sectors and look at the dispersion and tell me. I think the XLE is up 35% year to date and NASDAQ's down what, 14, 15% or something. Yeah, so it's 32 and minus 10. It's a lot. You know when you want to fade this? When people start asking you for oil stock ideas. You know when you want to fade this? We're not there yet. When we get back to the 2008 highs, that's when you can fade it.

Stop. 2008 highs on the energy sector relative to tech if that happens the market's crashing alright what do we got next oil and gas exploration and production ETF you can flip through these break it out of a beautiful base this looks amazing what are the big components in this

do you know yeah I mean yeah is conical no that's go it's so the oil services are like haliburton schlumberger so it's not those in this case you're looking at the xop go look the the market caps are all kind of the same so the top 10 changes a lot it's occidental apache marathon anadarko used to be in here that was bought these are like these are like shale companies and the top 10 changes a lot midstream so i know that you do this a lot and i've followed jc's work for over 10 years i think

okay and you always say there's lots of stuff to trade you know i mean this is part of your thematic sort of stuff it's interesting to me i've been in the markets for 25 years and because energy was such a greater part of the s&p 500 let's say say, when I started. In like 05, 06, 07. I think it was low single digits last year, okay, before this move. You know, it was always a really niche-y group of investors who were interested in it. And they were like the gold bugs in a way. You know what I mean?

Like, I could give two shits about gold. Most of them were Canadian. Yes. But the resource, like, they come from Australia and Canada. And then there's like a handful of guys here in the U.S. who gave a shit about it. So to me, it's really funny. And literally, again, I've been doing this for a long time as an investor, a trader, and then as a pundit for the last, call it, 12 or 13 years.

And sometimes my eyes do glaze over on something. I cannot find myself getting interested in some of this stuff. The last energy company to actually be interesting was Chesapeake because Aubrey McClendon was just like – he was like a tech founder. Like his vision – He was the guy who drove himself into a wall and it didn't end well. But in his heyday when he was on Mad Money every week and he was like making huge acquisitions. They bought the Thunder Arena. Right.

He was always sitting courtside. He was doing crazy shit, and he was fascinating. I can't think of another natural gas company executive, maybe T. Boone Pickens. T. Boone, come on. And who else? I mean, I think personalities are not interesting in this space. You know, nobody's interested. Nobody has any exposure to it.

Smells like a squeeze. Dick Cheney was great. Who's buying Alcoa? Who's excited about Alcoa? Nothing. Stocks ripping. Us. Yeah exposure to it. Smells like a squeeze. Dick Cheney was great. Who's buying Alcoa? Who's excited about Alcoa? Nothing. Stocks ripping. Us. Yeah, you are.

Stocks ripping. All right, Chevron, this thing went vertical this week. This is one of the sickest charts I've ever seen. And I just wanted to show the oil and gas longer term. So that's the EMP. If we're above those, see that, those 09 lows, and then you had the same lows in 2016. If we're above those levels and you're not long energy,

like I don't know what you're thinking. Is that irresponsible or responsible? I think it's incredibly irresponsible to you, your family, and everybody you know. Get them. All right, what's next? Chevron. There it is, Chevron.

We got the 150. All right, is this like, can you reasonably still buy this? It doesn't look like it's done that much. It's funny you said that. Because when it was in the low 130s, we were asking ourselves that, like, are we chasing? Are we chasing? It's like, well,. Over time. Because when it was in the low 130s, we were asking ourselves that. Like, are we chasing?

Are we chasing? It's like, well, if we buy the January 2024 Leaps, we could give it room to dance. And it gives us exposure. Right? What does that cost? It costs 12 bucks at the time. Now it's twice that. So we sell half when our calls double.

We just did that this week. And now we have a free ride for the next two years, long Chevron. I mean, if that's not the perfect situation, because now we're playing with house money. We can hold this thing for two more years. Is there anything else setting up similar to Chevron that you think? Okay. Funny you should ask. Funny I should.

I didn't do it on purpose. So the economists and their infinite wisdom comes out with making coal history, which is hilarious. At the same time that VanEck delists the coal ETF, KOL. I remember all this. This is October 2020. Yeah. So the cover of The Economist making coal history,

and that's literally the bottom on Peabody Energy. And they delisted the coal ETF. Hold on. This stock just went from $0.50 to $21? After they delisted the ETF? Are you kidding me? I am not. You can't make this shit up.

That's incredible. By the way- KOL was the coal ETF. Uh-huh. Yeah. That's incredible. Isn't it beautiful? You could buy this now.

I don't think it's ESG, JC. For all my friends in the ESG, PQ, whatever community- There was like three stocks in the industry. Yeah, because they all went out of business. They were in other countries and stuff. Yeah, yeah. Okay, I'm not going to buy that one. So for the ESG people,

we're buying the grossest, dirtiest companies in the world that hurt the earth the worst. Those are the ones we're buying. Is this a cup and handle? I'm not like a cup and handle guy. I know you're not a pattern guy. But for me, these look the same, right? Go back and look at the chart, right?

They look the same. So you're looking at that tip EIF ratio. This is beautiful, Jason. That's that same chart we looked at before and the correlation between... It's a dope chart. Is this a dope chart?

Do I bring dope charts or what? Come on. So wait, let's explain what we're looking at. This is beautiful. So the metals and mining ETF in black and then below, you're looking at tips versus treasury.

So it's what the bond market's pricing is for inflation. So it's showing metals and mining moving in line with inflation and inflation expectations there's a beautiful chart well done and then for you correlation nerds you got that down at the bottom yeah it's pretty it's pretty clean you know all right so next chart here's freeport here and then here's the trade so freeport new core reliance it's amazing how they all look the same but it shouldn't be is it amazing it shouldn't be it's all something they all do the same thing it makes it makes perfect sense that

they would all so the trade's very simple. If we're above last year's highs, you own it. If we're not above last year's highs, you don't. Let me make a recommendation. If you're interested in listening to the fundamental case for these companies, Eric something was on Patrick O'Shaughnessy's podcast this week. I don't know the guy's last name. But it was just hilarious to hear how smart this guy was.

Like, just if you're casually trading stocks, that's your competition. And he's talking about Alcoa, bullish as hell, and all these names. You know who else? I think, did Patrick have Jeff Curry on? Goldman Sachs come out of these guys? I think. Somebody had him on. He was.

Now because we're talking about Patrick Oshag-Hennessy here, one of the best podcasts that I've listened to in the last years was when he had Gavin Baker on from the treaties. Did you hear that in January? This one or the last one? This one. It's so good. I mean, I was mesmerized by it.

Yeah. So this guy's name is Eric Mandelblatt. Do you know who that is? Jewish? Mandelbaum. Eric Mandelblatt from Sorbonne Capital is so good. I think so. All right.

Steel Dynamics, STLD. What are we doing here? We getting long? You're buying. If you don't buy this, your wife will leave you. I mean, I don't know about all that, but I think if we're above- Have fun staying poor if you're not in Steel Dynamics. Maybe, but I think if it's above 75, you're long.

Is that your final trade on the half today? That's how I introduce my final trade every night. Next one, John. Wait, do we have any growth stocks? What the fuck is this? Next chart. I want to look at this. South African gold.

Get out. Next. Come on. South African gold. Next. This is J. Next. Come on. South African gold. Next. This is J.C. Hold on. It's Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile.

It's a $17 billion lithium producer. I think you own it. Look at that base. Come on. SQM. I was in ALB, which is the same trade. Alba Male. That was a good one, too.

Alba Male. Still is. Same trade, but Alba Male is based in North Carolina. And this is based in- We have any growth stocks? So now you're getting Latin America exposure, Chilean exposure, getting out of the US, the worst country in the Western Hemisphere. Watch your mouth.

Watch your mouth. Stock market wise. I love America. This is lithium. It's a weird metal. It's the lightest metal. Gets you out of America. I thought he was doing his Jeff Daniels thing from that.

Remember the network? Remember that opening scene? The show on HBO? Oh, yeah. That's where I think he was going. What was the name of that show? The Network? It's a newsroom.

It's a newsroom. We have any growth stocks that are crashing coming up? Show me Nasdaq Composite. There we go. Here we go. Now we're going. That's like a generational top, quote Doug Cass. Isn't that what it looks like?

That rounded- Who? Right. That rounded top where people slowly just give up and every high is a lower high. Doesn't that look really bad right now? Yeah, it's going to be a minute. NASDAQ composite. It's going to be a minute.

This doesn't just stop on a dime and reverse. 70% of the NASDAQ is down 20%. Half the NASDAQ stocks have been cut in half. The average drawdown of the NASDAQ is 44%. And people are asking me if I think that we're going to go into a bear market. It's like, well, what the hell do you call that?

Yeah. What are you talking about, bro? This doesn't just stop on a dime and turn around. Because too many people need it to. Maybe it will. The biggest fake out,

one of the worst trades I've had on in 10 years, and I mean this sincerely, it was kind of my scar tissue from the financial crisis, which actually just kind of got worse from the post.com implosion.

In 15 and 16, remember we had that Chinese growth scare in 15? The earnings recession. Yeah, but we had the first – it looked like that. I just want to be really clear, and I was certain. I was certain that was a generational top, and I leaned into a lot of that stuff, and I got my face blown off. I could see that. Yeah, the generational top is in the tech energy ratio.

So not so much tech on an absolute. The inverse of what we were just looking at. Right, correct. So we're essentially long energy short the NASDAQ. We're just essentially long energy on a relative basis because technology is such a huge portion, not short the NASDAQ, short tech. But tech is such a large portion of the market. You're essentially playing the relative strength in energy.

That, I think, is a generational trade. The top last year in the market, I think we'll blow right through that eventually. No problem. So now let's look at some stocks. Let's keep going. So this is the round trip, right? So these are all the infamous ones. This is nuts.

IPO. I can't stop looking at these charts. Look at iBuy. Wait, let me set this up for the listener. So we have ARK, IPO, which is the Renaissance ETF for IPOs, XBI, which is Equal Weight Biotech, Crane Shares, China, Internet, K-Web, everybody knows it. I don't know iBuy.

What is that? That is internet retail. Okay. You know everything in it. Shopify, Amazon. You know what's in it. All right. So these stocks, starting in March of 2020,

it looks like the laggard went up 100%, but a few of them went up 300%, and they've all given it back, or almost all of it back. That's what we're saying here? Yeah, round trip. I mean, just these things have just come. It's amazing how quickly this has faded. Yeah.

There was no staying power to most of these trades. You had two years. Well. Well, that's how the ball bounces. Peaked in February, you know. Yeah. There was no staying power to most of these trades. You had two years. Well. Well, that's how the ball bounces. Peaked in February. You know. Yeah. For those compound fans out there.

For sure. Yeah, knowing Jim Carrey leaves the 7-Eleven, dumb and dumber. Big old stock, guys. Yeah. Well, see you later. See you later. That's what happened to these stocks.

So let's take a look at a few of them. Okay. So here's the arc against those early 2020, you know, for you YOLOers out there looking to do some YOLOing, you know, these are the stocks that we're looking at for that sort of behavior. But even with any good YOLO, you need a risk management strategy. And I think that if we are against the January lows, to me, that's the YOLO strategy. For ARK. For all the garbage.

ARK, biotech, the IPO. Wait, you mean you can get long? You can get long. Long, if we're above the January lows. Funny that you mentioned 2015 and you thought that it was the end of the world and generation

and I was right there with you, bro. I was permable. I thought Deutsche Bank was going to zero. I was right there with you. And then January, we made a low. We undercut that low and retested in a lot of areas. The strongest areas did not retest in January and February of 2016.

Very familiar sort of behavior. And here's another similarity. And then a certain person made America great again, not long after. All right. But one of the things that was really similar in 15 was that the Fed had stopped buying bonds, and they were coming off ZERP. I'm just saying, so that was – you can get yourself in a similar trap right now is what I'm saying. And the one thing I'd say about your barge – Getting bearish.

Getting too bearish. Which everybody is right now. Well, what I'm saying is – I'm medium bearish. By everyone, I mean like Poles. I'm fairly bearish. I mean, listen, if you're right about commodities, you better be bearish about stocks. I'm not.

Well, some of these stocks. So no. The one thing I would say about this ARK is that, well, I'm not putting words in your mouth. The one thing about ARK is that ARK is the NASDAQ without the good shit. So why buy the ARK ever again? You know what I mean? If you think about it, like you buy the QQQ because you have six stocks that make up half the weight.

And then you have dozens of stocks that are down 50 and 60 percent. ARK is the NASDAQ like minus all the companies with the dividends and the buybacks and earnings. With earnings. Wow. I'm saying. Okay. But you think it's a tradable bounce here, but you have to respect that. What is that, 60?

Pick your favorite garbage stock. The SPC. I already have. The problem is I picked them six months ago and held them. Well, fine. So I can't help you there. I think the YOLO trade today and over the last week is you go long, the worst things in the world, if they're above the January lows.

Because if they're not- January 2022 low. Correct. Last month. Let's do square. Oh, two months. if they're above the January lows. Because if they're not- January 2022 low. Correct. Last month. Let's do square. Oh, two months. Or we're calling this block now. Same thing, right?

The January lows. Failed breakdown below 100. Yeah. Snapping back right now. Yeah. Above the January lows. It's all the same trade. Speaking of snap, snap has got the same chart almost.

There's so many. No, but because it had that huge gap the way Square did. I'll just tell you if Square and Snap fill in those gaps, Upstart was not that I know what that company does. I know what Upstart does. But I do not. But what I'm saying is if you – some of those crazy gaps that we've seen over the last few weeks, you see those fill in, then that means that the market's below those January 24th lows

or below the lows last week and And then it's, you know. Couldn't SoFi fit in that bucket? SoFi can fit in. You tell me because- It's the worst of the worst right now. I know, but it doesn't have a chart, basically. It's back at 10. It was a SPAC.

You know what I'm saying? So that's the hard part. I don't know quite what you're saying. I had to look at it. 27 down to 10. When I see the stake, I'll be like, oh, yeah. Dude, Snap has actually one of the weirdest charts

because remember, look how weird this is. No, no. The Snap chart. There's too many colors and lines. What is that? If you look at a, sorry.

All right, what do you got to do? Is it a daily chart? Is that what we're looking at? Look at that candle on the Facebook. Yeah, so weird. That's the weirdest thing about it. This might be the weirdest chart ever.

Look at that. But we're above the January lows. So if you want to own it, own it above the January lows. I think that's the trade. Draft Kings. Next chart. Draft Kings.

And then here, this is the Draft Kings. So this guy, Harry Sloan, he's the vice chairman. He's doing some YOLOing himself. Just filed a form for. So if you're looking for what smart YOLOers are doing, this is what's going on here. So I think that's an interesting one. So go to the next one.

DraftKings down 10%. So then this is the whole hot list. So what we're doing is we're analyzing all the SEC filings, the 13Ds, what the House of Reps are doing, the Senators are doing, and all the Form 4s. I'm surprised to see you looking at insider buying and selling at all. This seems so...

He's a weight of the evidence guy. No, but doesn't this seem so distant from technical analysis? You're analyzing the behavior of market and market participants. This is technical analysis. It is. We're watching money flow.

But I've never heard you talk about insider buying. You and I have been talking about it for 20 years. No, but not as a... Whatever, I'm not going to argue with you. This is great. I think this is great that you're incorporating this. Wait, Nancy Pelosi's buying PayPal literally? What is Nancy Pelosi not buying?

She just filed so... Like, calls, all kinds of stuff. I'll tell you what she's not buying. DraftKings, motherfucker. She's buying Apple, Amix. Wait, I might be kidding. Why are these people trading? Why is Nancy Pelosi trading all these stocks? I don't know, bro, but she must know something.

Why would the Fed go and buy mortgage-backed securities for their own portfolios? Dude, Tommy Tuberville was YOLOing cattle futures and wheat futures and soybean. Before the war, the senator of Alabama was buying all these commodities futures before the war. We'll take a look at it. And he's a dumb motherfucker. Yeah, maybe. I don't know.

He made a lot of money. Go ahead. Bleep that, Duncan. He's a wealthy motherfucker. Leave that in, Duncan. I call the shots in this room. When you're on your podcast, you call the shots. All right.

Tommy the Tuba or whatever. Tuba Bill. Great. He was a head coach, college football coach, Auburn. And Mississippi State, I think. Alliance Bernstein. Why is this on here? This doesn't look like anything's going on.

Pelosi's Yolo Wing. Oh, she's buying this? Yeah, she's buying it. She saw an unusual activity. Pelosi's YOLOing. Oh, she's buying this? Yeah, she's buying it. No, she saw Najarian's unusual activity. Pelosi got on there. Wait, when did you get a heat sinker over there at All-Star Charts? This is what Pelosi's buying. She's a big Pete Najarian fan.

So if you're looking to bottom fish some garbage, I'm not saying this is garbage. It's not like those tech stocks. But, you know, definitely gotten hit. Coming back to a key level. If you see what Nancy sees and you want to be long, I think 42 and a half. If you're above 42 and a half, join her.

If not, that's her problem. Next trade, Micron. Same thing, she's buying Micron. Look at that base, 20 year base. This actually looks great. Oh, this one looks good. Chasey, do you have PayPal? Chartered PayPal?

What happened to PayPal? What in the happened to PayPal? What do you mean what happened? If it's above the January lows, you own it. They missed. They guided lower for a full year. Okay, one of the biggest stocks in the world lost two-thirds of its value in like six months. Summer of 2021, they had a huge gap.

They missed and guided down. And there was two consecutive gaps and no one was paying attention. It went from 310 in July to 95. Do you know that nobody is calling this guy out? Shulman, whatever the CEO is. They let it slip that they were thinking about buying Pinterest to gauge market response. That was the top for the stock. $25 billion or something like that.

That was the top for the stock. I don't know what the hell they're doing over there. This is Apache? This is Micron. I think this is what I would do for the Micron. We already did this. We did Apache. So we didn't.

We're going to do it now. But Pelosi, she's already in. So we're going to put our alerts. We're going to do it now. But Pelosi, she's already in. So we're going to put our alerts. We're going to put our alerts above the 2,000 highs. And if it takes out the 2,000 highs, we want to be buyers. We want to buy high, sell higher. What's the big deal? Josh Brown here from PelosiTrades.com.

All right, now go. Look at this. This is the one. This is Apache. And not only is Apache in the right sector, because it's not tech or growth or freaking biotech. Who is Young Chan-Soo? This is a gentleman on the board of directors of Apache, and he just filed a form for. It's a hot rapper right now, Young Chan-Soo.

Little Chan-Soo. How much did he buy? 1.3 million. It's not nothing. No, that looks legit. And the chart looks great. If you're above the 2,000 highs, you're buying. When are we going to get to Bitcoin?

Yeah. You got Bitcoin in here? Yeah, go highs, you're buying. When are we going to get to Bitcoin? Yeah. You got Bitcoin in here? Yeah, go. Let's skip ahead. What slide is Bitcoin? Here we are. So that's, by the way, that's Tuberville. Corn futures, soybean futures, cattle futures.

He's been loading the boat before the war. I think you've heard this. Slide 32, John. Slide 32. Of 32. Dan, calm down. So here's like 32. Of 32. Dan, calm down. So here's the thing. So I don't know how many of your viewers are trading options in the crypto markets.

It would be irresponsible if they weren't. I think it would be pretty irresponsible if they were between you and me. But that's another story. This has been a great market environment to be selling the wings. Is that how you guys talk? You're selling wings? Yeah. Right?

So taking advantage of the chop, right? What's a wing? We're not options, guys. What does that mean? Like really kind of far away from the strike. Betting things keep staying messy, right? So non-directional. That's been the trade, a great trade.

If you could put it on, few people can. It's like when you're on sports and when you're teasing, you're buying points for both teams. I think you're selling. No, I don people can it's like it's like when you're on sports when like you're teasing you're like buying points for both teams i think you're selling no i don't think it's anything like that i think it's more like you're just betting that it stays messy okay and then while traders are getting chopped up they're making donations you're collecting them yeah so i think that as as just crypto investors in general we're not getting any of them making new highs like 0.0. Except for the gold one. There's a gold, the one at the top, the PAX gold.

But that doesn't count. So Luna is by far and away the strongest one. Not even close. That's in the Archery Index. Shout out to Archery. It is by far and away. So what I think is- What is Luna? Is it D-I?

Terra. Oh, that's Terra's coin? It's an algorithmic stable coin. I don't know what they do. I'm a price guy. Michael does. He has all the white papers. Okay.

All right. So let's pivot. By the way, amazing job with the charges this time. I mean, really. Were they dope this time? We got through a lot of really good stuff here. Clean. Clean.

Very clean. He was bored the whole time. He's like, commodities, bro? Come on. No. I can't get excited about it. Can I tell you something? He's actually trading your picks. I find this odd as fuck. I like well thought out. time he's like commodities bro come on no i can't get excited can i tell you something i was actually

trading your picks i find those on his phone i like well thought out um ideas like that i like your thematic you have a top down view then you you do the bottoms up and i like the ratio ones and and there's like some great ideas all right well i appreciate that my friend we i don't know if this will turn out to look great in the short term but we're maybe not giving retail enough credit uh just generally speaking i know i'm not they seem to have really learned their lesson and they don't panic anymore and this is from savitas group at bank of america uh big inflows from retail this is the week of the war sell-off last last week big inflows from retail during sell-off private clients that's like mom and pop, have so far been buyers every week this year.

And buying of this dip by retail was more aggressive than during other 10% pullbacks post-crisis. So mom and pop does not give a shit about geopolitics as much as maybe we would have thought. And we have – let me see this. about geopolitics as much as maybe we would have thought. And we have, let me see this. Like that's noticeable that they came charging in during a week where the market was probably as scary as it's been this year. Some people might see that and say that's actually bearish

because there's no fear yet. I wouldn't be one of those people, but some people might. Oh, because it's complacency? Right, exactly. I don't know. What do you think about that? Well, I would say that you got to take retail and put it into two buckets, right?

So there's a retail that was YOLOing to JC's point, and they were buying every SPAC. And before, there was a Target. They were buying every shit coin. That's tiny, tiny dollars. No, I understand. But it actually makes up, like, if you think about just from a sentiment standpoint, I mean, you've absolutely taken out a large group. You gave us that $17 trillion of cash that's sitting on the sideline. To me, if it's not already in the stock market right now, what does that mean?

That means that they're just – they got burned in dot com. They got burned in the housing crisis. You know what I mean? Maybe they got burned a little early in some of this other stuff. And maybe they're just not interested in investing it in risk assets. I should say that they're looking at data of Merrill Lynch clients. That's not the YOLO crowd. That's right.

Right? That's an old school investor, probably not like on Reddit. So you're right. It is two buckets. But in this case, they're looking at like the more mature investors. And those whole infrastructures, they're like down 10% in the S&P 500. They're all hitting the horns. You know what I mean?

They're like this is the time to start layering into if you had cash on the sidelines. Because a lot of people, and we know this, very sensible investors, when you see the S&P up 26% of the year last year, climbing a wall of worry and all that sort of stuff, people are like, when do I get in? Well, if your broker calls you or your investment advisor from a reputable bank and they say, listen, we're down 10%, you wanted me to tell you when to get in. Get in. You said last February was the top, the sentiment top, the top for most stocks.

For investor enthusiasm. But you were right. None of the above. You guys not even listened to the ORO show. That's not what you said? What did you say? That was the best thing. That was the top of the stock market.

The market of stocks peaked in February. That's what I just said. You were talking about enthusiasm. I said it was enthusiasm. No, but it has nothing to do with sentiment. It has to do with price. Honestly, it doesn't even matter. That was a segue.

No, it was a JV. But it's important because from a sentiment perspective, last summer, sentiment was a headwind, right? We had no bears. We had the most bulls that we had had in years since 2018. So sentiment was a headwind last summer. Today, between, and then when you were talking about buckets of retail, I think there's two buckets too. I think you've got financial advisors and then you have individual investors are retail investors to me.

So we take the investor intelligence polls and the AAII. They're bearish. And we combine them. AAII is bearish. And we combine them. AAII is bearish. To create an average. And the AAII and the II, we have the fewest amount of bulls since 2016. Nobody's bullish.

So fewer bulls than during the pandemic when we were staring into the abyss and the most bears since the pandemic. So when you look at the market environment and it's like, okay, is sentiment a headwind or a tailwind? I think we are in an environment for a potential ripple though can i ask you a question though yeah you just had the worst start to a year in recorded history i think like the worst january us maybe okay fine that i

mean that's what we're talking about though sentiment is always going to be that u.s stocks retail doesn't know what the hell's going they don't know what's happening in other but isn't that even more bullish that sentiment is so bad? My point is, shouldn't sentiment be bad for the typical US investor who is watching the worst start to a year they've ever seen? Especially a lot of those people are stock pickers. The stock pickers are getting careened. Because they're in the growth.

So sentiment follows growth, 100%. Right. Stock pickers are not buying home builders. They're literally buying like semiconductor stocks that are reporting great earnings and getting cut in half. It's all those IPO, ARK, KWev, all of those. My point is, when do you think the bottom – the top in venture capital and startup valuations, do you think it passed? Is it yet to come? It has not come.

It's not yet? No. And I think it usually six to nine month lag from the top of valuations. So that's where we are though. Yeah, but think about it. So a lot of rounds, early rounds were being priced off the fact that, look at Snowflake, it's trading at 50 times sales. You know what I'm saying?

So this is a massive market cap company that actually, you know, and then what I think really shifted is like when you started seeing a lot of these companies come public through SPAC or regular way IPO, it was a public down round in valuation. So the lag there – Instantaneous. So here's one thing, and I keep hearing this, that SoftBank is going to have a real problem here because a lot of their public holdings, BABA in particular, has gone into the shitter here. And they are basically never marked down anything in the private markets you know they had that big one with um we work obviously um from like 40 billion to zero or whatever the hell it is so that that could be a knock-on effect or some sort of snowballing sort of thing once they finally have to do that and maybe they've been selling the stuff that they can in public markets

because that's what's liquid. And they don't really want to mark down. Let me share this with you. This is from Think Plus Ventures. We believe the possibility of further decline in VC valuations is increasing as capital markets could see bigger drops, blah, blah, blah. We expect valuation to decline by at least 50%

for new IPOs getting closer to the historical norm of around seven times revenue versus 15 times in 2021. John, we have this chart. I mean, we never even came close to the dot-com lunacy, but it's pretty – it's enough lunacy for the cycle. VC was so much smaller back then, right? That's true. And so it wasn't global. It was much smaller back then, right? That's true.

And so, you know, it wasn't global. We believe the median valuation of early stage companies will not significantly change, but the average is likely to come down quite a bit as the appetite for $40 to $60 million seed valuation with only an MVP and a two-person team will decline. We are even beginning to see pre-seed companies at single-digit valuations, something that only last year we thought we would never see again. Wait, pre-seed? What does that even mean? Pre-seed has no – there's no revenue there. No valuation.

No, no, pre-seed. Single-digit valuation is like $5 million. Oh. Like instead of – I was thinking multiples. Got it, got it. Yeah, instead of a company like just raising 20 out of the gates because one guy worked at Google, they're that's already over with very good so i mean this is that our problem i hope they go to zero i mean if i'm not in it i don't care yeah uh this idea that the private market is in some way

divorced from the public market howard lindsen has always been right about this like there's a feedback loop between the two and it's inescapable. And I don't care how cool the startups are now, or if they're crypto or FinTech or whatever, this is always going to be about what you could sell this shit to. And then not to mention Josh, investors in venture capital have liquid public investments, whether they went out and bought public investments in a lot of cases or

their private investments went public, but like it's the same money. Not more than ever with all these crossover funds, not more than ever. Right. So if you just, if, if, if you were part of the group that funded snowflake pre IPO came public, you were very rich. You're still very rich now, but you're significantly less actually a year ago, your sentiment toward your next five investments might change. And there'll be some people that go the other way. And I saw this in an article in the information talking about a CEO at one of these crossover funds goes, you know what? I'm going to start

buying public stocks because they're cheaper than the private ones. That's it, right? Yeah. And not only that, Gavin on Invest Like the Best, he goes, welcome. He's like, welcome to all of you to the insanity in the public markets because they never, they just for 10 years have just seen valuations skipping up, skipping up. They think they're geniuses. They never have to mark anything. The time horizon is 10 years.

Welcome to the insanity, right? Oh, they're building on IRR. It's hilarious. It's stuff that gets marked once every 18 months. It's like practice for the public markets. And listen, without VC, we don't have a lot of these crazy innovations. So we're not sitting here shitting on the practice of it. It's the valuations.

And I say the same thing about public markets. You know, it's investors who lost their goddamn minds. It wasn't like the Wall Street machine or your broker or this or whatever. You wanted it. You know what I mean? And you went for it. And some asshole paid, you know, 50 times sales for Snowflake in November when the stock was trading at $400. And no one forced him to do that.

You know what I mean? He thought that was a good idea. The thing is that people think the investment bankers that are bringing – It could have been a short getting squeezed that was then forced. People think like the bankers bringing these public have some sort of responsibility to govern the value. They will sell whatever shit they think they can get you to buy at the highest price possible. They're not here to keep people calm. They're here literally to bill on the biggest deal they can win.

I'm looking at that. Could Theranos have – in an alternate universe, could that have been a public company? Yeah. It almost could have squeaked through. Was Goldman talking to them? Of course. I told you all she had to do was pivot and say this isn't working so well, but we're going to do this new thing. That would have given her three more years to f*** around.

Not only were we not shitting on VCs, they subsidized all of these amazing companies for the last decade. All of these money-losing companies that were amazing for consumers. I think it's been great for us. Uber and the delivery services. They've been a godsend. How about – right. for us. Uber and the delivery services. They've been a godsend. And I feel the same way about all the content that's being created because of cheap money. You probably have

twice the amount of great TV shows than we otherwise would have if it actually cost Hollywood Studios like 7% to fund programming. I watched the Kanye doc. Holy moly. That scene with Pharrell where he's like, yo, I love you. That was so good.

All right. I didn't want to dwell on this for a lot of the show, so we're just going to kind of blaze by this. But corporate America pulling out of Russia. I don't think we've ever seen an economy this big literally commit suicide right before our eyes. This is the 11th biggest economy in the world. They actually committed suicide this week. I just want to give you guys a couple of the highlights of what's going on. MSCI and FTSE Russell, which said another way, BlackRock and Vanguard, literally just made anything in the Russian Federation ineligible for investor dollars.

Ford announced Tuesday suspending operations in Russia. They had a big joint venture there. Gone. General Motors halting all exports to Russia until further notice. Doesn't sell that many there, but so what? Volkswagen stopping production of vehicles in Russia. Will suspend exports to Russia as well. Boeing, suspend support for Russian airlines.

Airbus, same thing. Apple, no more iPhones being sold in Russia, and they're shutting down apps in the App Store. You literally can't use Apple Pay there. Meta, blocking access to Russia Today and Sputnik and other Russian media companies. Twitter, barely doing shit. Reduce the visibility and amplification of Russian state media.

Twitter sucks. Netflix, refusing to air Russian state TV channels. Spotify, tells Russia to go f**k itself. Roku, YouTube, Google. The list is literally endless. And it's more than symbolic they're walking away from some actual money all right so it's a crazy precedent they're setting let's just say in a month from now um china invades taiwan what do we do there oh they won't do anything

okay so we're absolute hypocrites we just had the olympics in uh you know in china and you know there's there's supposed genocide you know with theyghurs and stuff like that. Nobody did anything. No one says anything. I mean, it's a weird precedent. We will be hypocrites all of these U S multinationals for the most part. I fully agree with you. Yeah. I mean, you know, but if they are forced, you know, because there could be a situation where U S consumers forced the hand, we've seen this again and again and again, right.

About like sort of geopolitical sort of things. I mean, you know, I just think the bigger issues with this is like we have a surging dollar right now because of all this stuff. I mean, like it's going to be really hard for multinationals. Surging dollar relative to the euro. Relative to the euro. But like think about if a lot of U.S. corporations were hoping

to get back. The U.S. came back online I think quicker than a lot of other economies. If they were hoping to kind of take advantage of the rest of the globe reflating, now all of a sudden you have all of these inflationary pressures, you have f***ed up supply chain, sorry, Duncan, you know, you have a surging dollar and now you have the social pressure of, you know, not doing business. And just, you know, I mean, MBS can go hack up reporters, you know what I mean, in Turkey and nothing happens whatsoever, you know what I mean, MBS can go hack up reporters, you know what I mean, in Turkey and nothing happens whatsoever. You know what I mean?

From our – Well, in real life though, we are not doing – we are not as big of an economic force in the lives of the average Saudi as we are in the lives of people in China. China is like a super important market. We got this alert today from TD. Due to liquidity issues stemming from restrictions placed on all Russian securities by TD Ameritrade's clearing agents, neither buy nor sell order on Russian securities

are able to be accepted at this time. This is a rapidly evolving situation and we will continue to provide updates Oh, that's a shame. Does anybody want to trade these securities in any direction? So BP's Rosnet, whatever they pronounce it,

who's... So somebody was saying this morning the Russian oligarchs are going to make out like bandits because they're going to buy it for pennies on the dollar Back from BP Buy with what money? Like literally, buy with what money? Disney suspending the release of theatrical

releases in Russia The Entertainment Giant had multiple films set for release in Russia Marvel's Doctor Strange, Pixar's Lightyear I don't know if Russians are really the entertainment giant had multiple films set for release in russia marvel's doctor strange pixar's light year i don't know if russians are really into our movies there or not but to your point they ain't doing that with china no if not for chinese audiences they can't fund any of these movies so i think you're i think you're dead on uh i wanted to get to this too. We did the index providers dropping Russia. You guys know Rob Koifman from Koifin. So I hung up with Rob like an hour ago.

Rob created Koifin, which is kind of like online charts, market data, a lot of – you use it a little bit for certain things? Yeah. Koifin is a great product. Rob has 20 employees who are Ukrainians living in Ukraine. They're all in their 20s and 30s. They're kids. And they're programmers and developers. And they're not like outside contractors. They're literally his employees. And some of them have managed to make it West where there aren't as, where there isn't as much bombing and whatever, but some of them stayed in the hardest hit cities because their parents are there and they just won't leave them. And it's a sick thing that's going on right now.

And I know a lot of people are frustrated and they're like, how do I help? What do I do? I wanted to let you guys know, Rob said he's going to set up a thing where we can make donations that will go directly to his employees that are trapped in the country. Maybe help them get food. Maybe help them get supplies. Maybe help them get the hell out of there.

It's not set up yet. There's a regulatory thing where you can't do a GoFundMe and then send it overseas. So he's going to figure out a way that he can do it. Crypto? Is it Bitcoin solvers? So our good friend, Matthew McCormick, not boring, he did his whole Monday post on this. So go look at it.

There's a link fest in there, and there's a ton of links that you can do. And I know Masterworks is obviously a sponsor, a sponsor of ours and his. And we were all donating this week the Masterworks sponsorship to some of those. UNICEF was one of them. but he had a lot of direct things. And there was actually a crypto account that was open that was totally legit.

There's some people, obviously, at A16Z verified it and everything like that. So Paki's Not Boring Post was called Ukraine on Monday. We'll link to that. Yeah, we'll link to that. And whenever Rob figures out what he can do to get money to his people, but I just wanted to shout out Koyfin. And he says the users of Koy Finn have already been just bombarding him. Like, what can we do?

How can we help? So I thought that was pretty cool to see our community pulled together like that. We're going to do a hard pivot and end on a lighter note. What's the best burger in New York? I wanted to hear both of your takes on this because I feel like it's going to be a little contentious. Didn't we run into each other there for you like maybe a couple years ago? Where's there?

Where? Where's there? First of all, tonight, aren't we doing the Compound and Friends? It's got like a risk reversal collab at Fort Charles Prime Rib. Is that burger? That's the O'Shavala burger. Yeah. The O'Shavala is one of my favorites.

I mean, to see, I'm a technician. Have you not been to Fort Charles? No, I haven't been, dude. It's a virgin night. I'm a technician Have you not been to Fort Charles? No I haven't been No it's a virgin night It's a virgin night Do we start with burgers? Lake history Fort Charles prime rib

Is so good It's like a meat bugger's Oh Batnick It's so good We've been there We're not getting steak We're getting burgers? We're not getting everything

Don't worry about it It's called the Nathan The order is We got it Dude I trust that Nathan Like bro This is delicious by the way Alright so first things first that Nathan. Like, bro, this is delicious, by the way.

All right, so first things first, we're also going to be drinking this. This is Como's tequila. This is their rosé tequila. It's absolutely delicious. My friend, Joe Marchese,

Human Ventures, he co-founded this with Richard Betts. He's a former master. Psalm, and they created this. It's delicious. This is so good.

And an Yeho, an extra Yeho, and this Rosa, and we're going to be drinking that tonight. It's delicious. So good. All right.

So wait. So you got O'Shaval? That's your? No. I don't call it. The Four Charles. The Four Charles burger. I don't slum it over there at O'Shaval.

What's the best burger in New York City? You know, I just have had such good times, like, you know, late nights. Stop filibustering. You know what? I actually just, I'm an audible. I was going to go Corner Bistro. You and I ran into each other there. No, that's not the best. It's good. No, you know what? I was, I actually just, I'm an audible. I was going to go corner bistro. You and I ran into each other there. No, that's not the best.

It's good. No, you know what it is? I don't know it. It's the black label burger at Minetta Tavern. That's the best burger in the city. With the bone marrow. So you get a side of bone marrow and you spread the bone marrow on the black label. Okay.

The black label is rich as fuck. So my buddy created that. Lee Hanson created that. How do you put bone marrow on the bun? Have you been to Mineta? Mineta happens. So you know how you can get the bone marrow? I don't love that burger, but Michael.

No, no, no. Put it on the toast, like the crostinis. But instead of putting on the crostinis, you put it in the burger. When you go to Mineta, you got to get the Black Label and the Mineta burger and go halfsies. And they have a delicious French dip. Yes, they do. Great fries too. What's the difference between the Mineta burger and the Black Label and the Mineta Burger and go halfsies. And they have a delicious French dip. Yes, they do. Great fries too. What's the difference between the Mineta Burger and the Black Label?

The Black Label is just like 18 more pounds of grease. Like it's just richer. It's more rich. One has caramelized onions on it and it's just a different, it's got short rib and stuff like that. It's good. I go the other way with burgers. I'm a traditionalist. I don't want short ribs.

We like J.G. Mellon. J.G. Mellon. J.G. Mellon's good. It's a little basic. It is literally the simplest. Mellon? J.G. Mellon. I love J.G. Mellon. It's all basic. It is literally the simplest. There's no bullshit. It's extremely basic. I actually think they serve it on a Wonder Bread roll.

It's old school. But that's me. So just so you know, tonight, our midcourse is going to be the burger. Duncan's going to have to leave the room. Duncan's literally vegan. Duncan's going to have to leave the room. Duncan's literally vegan. Okay. Duncan's going to have to leave the room. I was about to say, this is all play-based, right?

PJ Clark's is good. J.G. Mellon, especially the one in the E70s, the original. Honestly, it's the most reliable. If you walk in there, anytime during the day, during the night, it will be an identical cheeseburger. No frills. Like, there's nothing. Wait, what about the steak? What steakhouse does the burger?

Is that Bobby Vans? I love the Bobby Vans. You've had Bobby Vans. Peter Luger's has the most underrated burger also. I agree with that 100%. Because they're taking the steak that has already been aging for 28 days that they haven't sold, and they're grinding it. So hold on. Can we tell the folks, the listeners, this is the move.

So you're not going to go to Brooklyn and go to Peter Luger's and order a burger. You're going to get the porterhouse, right? But the burger is so good that what you should do is you get it as an appetizer and you cut it into fours and everybody share a little piece of the burger. That's what we're doing. That's what we're doing tonight at Fort Charles. All right. Everyone's probably heard enough from us Khazas at this point. You say that word, right?

Khaza? Let me hear it. Khaza. I'm Jewish now. I know. Cuban in Miami is like 75% Jewish. I'm a Juban. I went to Catholic school from 4 to 22,

but I think I'm in. We welcome you with open arms. We're doing favorites and then we're done. Michael, start us off. What's your favorite this week? The Kanye doc was awesome. And it's sad. I'm nervous to see the next one.

Because we know how it ends. Watch the second one, and there's one left. And we know how it ends. Severance on Apple TV. Ben Stiller knows how to make good shit. It's really good. I haven't seen it yet. Did you watch it?

No. Wait, Ben Stiller produced it? Yeah, and directed. Wow. Adam Scott, sci-fi. Did you watch it? No. Ben Stiller produced it? Yeah, and directed. Adam Scott, sci-fi. Oh, that thing looks awesome. Oh, I thought you were talking about the Kanye thing. That looks amazing. Severance, Adam Scott, Ben Stiller made it.

It's f***ing good. Dude, I mean, Adam Scott in Step Brothers, to me, one of the best characters. Best character ever. He's like a perfect douchebag in that movie. Perfect, perfect. One of the easy drives of Range Rover. I want to make, when Will Smith says to him – when Will Ferrell says to him, I want to make Bank Bro, I want to drive a Range Rover.

What's your favorite? What do you got for us? I know you got to run out of here too. So really quickly, I've been watching this show literally since the late aughts. It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia. You guys probably love it too. One of my favorites. Those three guys have a podcast.

Shut up. Yeah, and I literally just started listening to it. I was driving up to see my parents. It was my dad's 80th birthday yesterday. Shout out. Is Charlie great on the podcast? Dude, they're all great. I mean, like literally they are them.

They're not as horrible. And so they basically are starting out and they're going through all of their episodes, but they lose the script really quickly. And it's just, it's a great podcast. It's one of my favorites. I can't believe how long that show has been on the air. Season 15. That's nuts. It started in like 05 or 06. And Danny DeVito has been on the entire

time too. He started late. They have great stories. I'm not going to, you know, no spoilers here. Go listen to that thing. Did you see where they take live calls, Dan? Yes. It's getting real. What's your favorite Always Sunny episode? It's got to be Rum Ham.

Can I just tell you? I mean, they literally started out like a rocket ship. Literally, it's the gang gets racist. It's the first episode. And it literally just sets the stage. They did not give a shit. No. Yeah.

Oh, what about when the gang tries out for the the eagles that was out introduce green man in that think about they they have like uh they have like dennis casually date like as a date rapist they they were fearless i don't know if they still are but they were the the time's up for the gang is probably one of the best episodes and there's a scene there when mac does something with Sweet D and it literally, I was on a plane watching it and I literally spit out what I was doing on a plane. I actually know what you're talking about. Yes, I can't talk about that.

JC, favorites. What do you got? Listen, if you're into just watching serious quality basketball, I think you gotta watch the Miami Heat. They're good. I watched them beat the Knicks live. It was great. Is Tyler Hero gonna win six-man? Probably, right? I mean, it seems quite obvious.

He's the kind of guy that he doesn't give a shit about that. He says that he's going for six-man because he's up for it. He gives a shit. He's got an ego. I think the bigger chip on his shoulder is when they get into the playoffs. He's been there before. He's done well there before. Miami's not like the Nets or Philly or one of these teams that they brought together.

They've already been playing together. They've been there. I don't think there's anybody better. They're very well coached, obviously. You don't think there's anybody. No, he's not. He's getting the props now. He's getting now.

He was just named top 15 all time. He's not overrated. He's properly rated. Yeah. You think he's properly rated? Now he's properly rated. You know. Seven years ago, he was not.

I don't think the new Philly is just going to put a stop to all this Miami excitement. I made two bets. I made two bets. I made two bets. Let's go. The Sixers, 7-1 to win the championship. 7-1 is good odds. I would have taken that too. The Nuggets, plus 3,300.

I like those odds. They're not going to win, but 3,300? What do you want, confirmation from me? I'm telling you who's going to win the finals. I already told you. The Heat are not winning the finals. So, you know, I'm not a huge NBA guy. No, they're good.

They're good. Stop. This week, I interviewed Wick Rosbeck, I'm not a huge NBA guy. No, they're good. They're good. Stop. This week, I interviewed Wick Rosbeck, the lead owner of the Celtics. That guy's a cool fucking guy. So my buddy Rick Heitzman's good buddies with him. And what he did in the last 20 years, I mean, I think it's pretty interesting. So go listen to it.

No, Heat are very, very, very good. And they're fun to watch. Are they in first place? My point was. They are fun to watch. They're very good. I like Jimmy Butler. I like watching a lot of those guys. Lowry's balling. Come on, dude.

You know who's quiet on that team? Bam doesn't seem to do much these days. I don't know. He's going to go down as one of the greatest defenders in NBA history. No, he's a great player, but he's just not that important to them, I feel like. I don't know. Duncan, bleep that out. Are you serious? I really don't feel that way. I watched the last... No, no, no.

He's incredible. He's awesome. He played high school basketball. I agree he's incredible. Did he? I really don't feel that way. I watched the rest. No, no, no. He's incredible. He's awesome. Are you kidding me? He played high school basketball. I agree he's incredible. Did he? I agree he's incredible. I just don't feel like he's that important anymore. Dude, his pick and roll at the top. Dude, he's nasty.

Who's their backup big man? They don't have a backup big man, do they? Yeah, they got a few. They got, what's his face? He looks like he's 100. He's probably like 30. He looks like he's 100. It hurts me watching him play.

Wait, are you guys still recording this? yeah what's that? what's that? yeah just kidding I'm sorry yeah we're done with the heat I have a favorite

it's Tyler the Creator finding out about NFTs and John's gonna play it real quick let's see if this works I don't know who this is he's a rapper do you guys own any NFTs? I do

I do too you bought a dick butt I bought a dick butt you bought a dick? I do. I do too. You bought a dick butt. I bought a dick butt. You bought a dick butt. I'm digging my dick butt. Do you have a dick butt? Yeah, I do have a dick butt. I'm team On Chain Monkeys.

Not to brag. If I'm really outside, I bought a Mini Cooper three weeks ago. 1991 Rover Mini Cooper. three weeks ago 1991 rover mini cooper just to put a bike rack on it to drive to san pedro to ride my bike down the hills out there because it's awesome i'm really outside what the i mean this is where i am with this is this guy comedian a comedian? Why? No, dude. He's, you have to. He sounds funny. Oh, he's hilarious. Is he a comedian or no? No, he's like a rapper,

but he trolls hard. This is where I am. Nobody cares. All right. This is where I am with this whole thing. Nobody cares. I think he perfectly

encapsulates it. It's not for you. Oh no, it's definitely not for me. It's not for him yet. Yeah, what are you talking about? You're going to buy my NFT. Let's hear it. Let's hear it.

Because I'm your friend. I'll buy anything. Let's hear it. What's your take? What's your take? Go outside is my take. What does one have to do with the other? What hear it. Yeah, because I'm your friend. I'll buy anything. Let's hear it. What's your take? What's your take? Go outside is my take. What does one have to do with the other? What the fuck does that mean?

I get off the internet for like 15 seconds. Sad Josh. Yeah, come on. I am completely off the internet. I'm only on the internet for work at this point. I'm out. But it's not even about that. It's not even about that.

Boomer alert. Okay. I want to see what energy versus NFTs look like. The minute we have an index that's actually functional, I can't imagine it's going to look any different than all of the stuff that we compared to value stocks, energy stocks. I'm telling you, my property in Decentraland has held its value so well despite the volatility. Actually, when crypto crashed. Because I don't think anybody knows that you can actually sell it.

When crypto crashed, NFTs went up. I get a bid every other day. Well, that might be because they're illiquid. They're in books. Hit the bid, right? Hit the bid. I haven't hit it, no. Why are you squatting on fake land, on Decentraland? What's your plan for it? First of all, it's a 16x16 meter plot.

Bury yourself in it. And it's holding its value very well despite the volatility in crypto. Hey, we gotta get... Dan's gotta get to the NAS in it. Dude, come on. And it's holding its value very well despite the volatility. Come around. Hey, we got to get Dan's got to get to the NASDAQ. Hey, congrats on 100,000. Thank you so much. I appreciate it. And last time I was on here, you hit 10 million downloads for Animal Spirits.

It's really amazing. You guys have built an amazing team. We're not playing around. No, we're not playing around. And let's tell everybody how they could listen to your stuff. Dude, I had so much fun with you and Guy. That was so much fun. We're doing a around. We're not playing around. And let's tell everybody how they could listen to your stuff. Dude, I had so much fun with you and Guy. That was so much fun. We're doing a collab. Can we do it in here? And we'll get Danny

Moses in here too? Do we have enough room for their whole cast and our whole cast? We'll figure it out. It'll be interesting. Alright, so let's get into your podcast really quickly. So it's Guy Adami and it's another Dan. And Michael Slayland. Just so you know, for On The Tape, okay, so Guy Adami and Danny Moses and I,

we do that. We just reached a million downloads, which was kind of cool. We were like, and we haven't been doing anything from a marketing standpoint. So coming on here is really fun and your audience is amazing

and I have a lot of fun talking to people like JC. So we have that. We launched OK Computer in December. We have Packy on that. We have Packy's on that. Love the Jumers.

Packy the best. Rick Heitzman. Packy's the best and I know you, I listen to him when he's on with you guys all the best. Rick Heitzman. Paki's the best. And I know you, I listened to him when he's on with you guys all the time. He's amazing. So we have a great cast there. Katie Stanton joins us there.

He likes us a little bit better, but he's great on that. He should like you a little better. No, he's awesome. And it's just a different muscle. I mean, and this is like,

I wish I could do this. You guys are doing an amazing thing. So are doing an amazing thing. You have one of the most, listen, you have one of the most entertaining podcasts in our space. You got to get JC on. JC will come on. It's amazing. So thank

you guys. That's... Alright, Dan, thanks for being here. JC, thanks for being here. I will see you guys at dinner. We will... We will dine in a few hours. We'll let you get out of here for fast money. This hat is hurting my head, literally. Shush. I got to wrap this up. Listen, if you want to see all the charts that JC brought and all of our interaction

from today's show, check out youtube.com slash the compound R-W-M. Go ahead and like us, subscribe us, do all the things, and we'll see you next week. Is there a mark on my head? All right. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go.

Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go.

Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. let's go.