The Compound and Friends - ChatCPI

Episode Date: May 12, 2023

On episode 92 of The Compound and Friends, Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown are joined by Dion Rabouin to discuss inflation, the Fed, the labor market, Robinhood earnings, the advent of 24/7 trading, and much more! Thanks to Global X ETFs for sponsoring this episode. To learn more about their thematic strategies, visit: https://go.globalxetfs.com/l/750543/2023-05-02/8y4fqj Check out the latest in financial blogger fashion at The Compound shop: https://www.idontshop.com Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Josh Brown are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. Wealthcast Media, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information. Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here: https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

He said they liked the quality of our stuff. My boss, when I sent the request, he was like, that's a high-quality podcast. That was his one response. That's a cool boss. As a lifelong Wall Street Journal subscriber... He uses my login. No, I do not.

I most certainly do not. It's nice to hear. Definitely include that on the podcast. So that it'd be like, now that you've come on, I'm going to continue my subscription. You're doing a lot of video. Yeah. Is that because you wanted to or did they tap you and say, hey, you might be good at

video. Can we try this? No, that was part of the deal coming in. My job when I started was going to be like half video and then half print. Okay. So you want that. Yeah. That was why I came over.

I think video is where people are like— Couldn't agree more. I don't think there's that many people reading the full article. And so if you can hit people with like a three-minute video or a ten-minute video, you can actually get them to like pay attention. Can you say as much in a video as you can say by writing? More. You think you can say more? No, I mean I think—

I'm not sure. You think you could say more? No, I mean, I think. I'm not sure. In a video, I think there's just, there's less of a need to be specific because you can have like charts and graphs and you just boom. Whereas in a print article, you got to say, you got to write it all out. Okay. And people have to read through it.

Whereas I'm going to show you a chart. Yeah. And that backs up what I'm saying. I mean, you can't do that in writing though? You can't know because you have to explain. You kind of have to explain out everything. Oh, I see what you're saying. So if I write an article for the Wall Street Journal and I include a chart, I can put a caption under the chart, but I can't like walk people through it. Right, exactly.

They're looking at it and you don't know what they're looking at. I can say like investors doubt the Fed will – or investors think the Fed is going to cut rates through – and then I can just show you like Fed fund futures. Right. And then that's it. Whereas I have to, in an article say like investor say in this, you know, and I'll have to explain out like, here's what this means. Here's what these things are. Yeah. Whereas in video, it's sort of understood the audience has limited time. So you got to like, well, people don't build rapport with, with your writing. It's like, it's much harder, right? People build trust a lot faster if they listen to you. Yeah. Or distrust.

Yeah, the seeing is definitely. The seeing is a big part of it. And then it's generational. Yeah. If you're trying to get people in their 20s and 30s to pay attention to something, I think these days it's harder with a 500-word thing in print. For sure. And I think that is, I don't know, with the newsletter,

when I used to do the newsletter, I feel like that really got people because it was in their inbox and it wasn't like a thing they had to go find on the website and read. It's just in my inbox. I open, I'm scrolling, boom, and okay, cool.

100%. And that was... We had Ben Smith on. You know Ben? I have not met Ben. I know who he is, but yeah, I don't know him. So he was saying, you know, they started Semaphore,

which is like this new, new, new media thing. And like the best technology they have is email. Yeah. Like literally put it in someone's box. And that's like better than any kind of social network engineering thing that you could try to do. Yeah, for sure. It's amazing.

It still works. So all of our stuff goes out via email. You know what email stands for? Electronic mail. That's right. Is that a thing that people don't know? Do you find that people are not aware of this? Well, if there are people that don't know that,

did you think that I was going to be one of them? No, I was making a joke. Bizzero, Bizzero, Bizzero, Bizzero. The Google machine. Am I ready to put my headphones on? Duncan, Bizzero, Bizzero, Bizzero. Just a chance. The Google machine. Am I ready to put my headphones on? Duncan, you done fiddling? Yeah, put them on.

More or less. Okay. Yeah, we're doing headphones already. So, no, when Duncan fiddles, I get the shock to my ear. Oh, I see. Okay. You were talking about the Knicks game? Yeah.

I mean, you thought that you texted the group it's a gigantic win or something? Well, I didn't say that. But it was. They pulled to within two. Did I say that? Yeah. It's huge. No, it's huge that they won. It was not a great win.

A win is a win is a win. I understand. No, the last three minutes, I literally got lightheaded one time. I had to sit down because I was screaming so loud. I honestly thought they were about to blow it. Yeah, it was really rough. And then Barrett's miss and Iheart's put back. You watched the game?

I did, yeah. A Knicks guy? I'm not a Knicks guy per se, but I went to the Garden for game two. You hate the Knicks. I don't know. Where did you go? I'm from Denver, actually. Oh, okay.

Yeah, so I'm a big Nuggets guy. I'm going hard for Jokic and Murray right now. Murray is so good. I love Murray. I've been telling people about big Nuggets guy. I'm going hard. I'm going hard for Jokic and Murray right now. Murray is so good. I love Murray. I've been telling people about Murray for years when nobody wanted to talk about him. Well, when he was going head-to-head with Donovan like four years ago,

and then he got hurt really badly. Yeah, that's the thing. People finally learned about him in that 2020 bubble. People were like, oh, it's Jamal Murray guy. And then he got hurt, and they forgot about him again. They were like, oh, why can't this Jokic guy win? And it was like, well, there's two max players

not playing right now. And then this year, it was like, oh, why can't this Jokic guy win? And I was like, well, there's two max players not playing right now. And then this year, it was like, oh yeah, Murray. And then it comes back. Does Denver deserve a team that good? Absolutely. The city? Absolutely.

It's not a basketball city. It's a football town. It's a football town. Yeah, it's absolutely a football town. But we also have gone hard for the Avs. We just haven't ever had a champion. Well, hockey makes sense in Denver. Because a champion. Hockey makes sense in Denver. Football makes sense in Denver.

I don't know. I feel like that team's too good for where they are. Wow. No disrespect. What do you mean no disrespect? What are you talking about? What are you trying to say? We love the state of Colorado.

I'm jealous. I want Jokic. I want a guy like that on my team. We don't have that. Are you a Knicks like that on my team. We don't have that. You're a Knicks fan as well? Yeah. We don't have a guy that can take over a playoff game. Excuse me.

Excuse me. Did you watch Jalen last night? The way Jokic or Butler can. Jalen Brunson is an absolute animal. Oh, he's great. 38 points. Listen. Yeah, he's not a top five player, but he's f***ing awesome.

I don't think Butler's a top five player. In the playoffs, he is. But in the playoffs, he can take a game over at will. New York does not have that player. He just did last night. Did he hook it over or he played really well? Dude, he had 38 points.

He took over. He took over. But here's what I'll say. We've never had a championship basketball team. Never. You're close. Really?

You got to the Western Conference Finals. Yeah, Western Conference Finals. That's our best. Were they good when Carmelo was there? Yeah, Melo and Billups. We got to the Western Conference Finals one year. And you lost to Kobe.

When is that? Is that 05? No, no, no. That was like 11. 11? Yeah, it was 11. And we lost basically because we couldn't inbound the ball. It was the wildest.

Because another bad coach we had, George Carl. I hated George Carl. That's the last time that you guys were as good as you are in the Jokic era? Yes. Is Carl the guy that looked like he was 85 years old? No. You think Popovich? No, no, this was a Nuggets coach.

He just looked like really old. PJ Carlissimo? Was he out for the Nuggets coach? I don't think PJ was out for the Nuggets coach. I don't know. We had a bunch of kind of no-name coaches, and then we got George Carl, and then we got this guy Michael Malone.

What do you think is going gonna happen in the finals like who do I think is going to the finals yeah I had so I came in predicting Nuggets and Bucks now Celtics honestly I really want the Sixers I want I want Nuggets Sixers more than I want you know why I want the Sixers I don't like excuse me what hmm you want the Sixers want the Sixers more than I want. You know why I want the Sixers? Excuse me? What? You want the Sixers? Want the Sixers ahead of Boston. My assumption is that the winner of that series ends up in the finals. I feel like James Harden is the best player in the NBA that's never been there.

Wow. But I sports hate all of the cities that are still there. You're talking about best for a long period of time, you mean, that's never been. Because Jokic is the best that's never been. No, no, no. He's never been to the finals. Yeah, but he has more time. Right, okay.

Harden doesn't seem or look like he's going to do this for another three years. I would say Chris Paul. I also think Chris Paul is more deserving. Yeah, for sure.

Like, James Harden has spent a lot of his money at strip clubs and a lot of his off-season at strip clubs. You could do both. Yeah, no, but you can't, though.

You can't. Like, you got to decide. There's a point at which you got to make a decision. Like, what am I going to do tonight? Am I going to rest up and get a good night's sleep? Am I going to be with Lil Baby at a strip club? Right, right. And Chris Paul, he made decision one,

and James Harden has made decision two. I can't believe what Harden did. Was it games three and five? I don't know. Whatever games it was. One and three. Yeah. One and three, one and four.

But yeah, yeah, he was great. I have really been down on Harden. Yeah. One and three, one and four. But yeah, he was great. I have really been down on Harden. Yeah, how could you not be? He's been awful in the playoffs. What's the best series, though? I feel like the LA Golden State series is like... No, Phoenix-Denver. I think Phoenix...

I mean, I'm biased. The Sunday game was amazing. That was an incredible game. Actually, are we all 3-2 right now? Is everything 3-2? Everything is... Yeah, I think so, right? Yeah, I think everything is 3 incredible game. Actually, are we all 3-2 right now? Is everything 3-2? Everything is, yeah, I think so, right? Yeah, I think everything

is 3-2. Yeah, these series are going to distance. Who's going to push it to 7? I think Boston. I think Boston, Philly is going 7. I think Nuggets

take care of business tonight. I hope. I don't want to speak on it because I don't want to jinx anything. What time is that game? 10. That's a problem. Well, I could watch it tonight,

but it's so late. That's a problem. That's why I don't see as much of those games. Right. that game? 10. That's a problem. Well, I could watch it tonight, but it's so late. That's a problem. That's why I don't see as much of those games. Right. It's why a lot of people have slept on Jokic for all this time.

Yeah, you don't see him. And he's just, he's awkward. Yeah. And he looks like a doofus. He does. He walks like a penguin or something. And his shots,

they don't look like they should go in. No, every time he shoots, I'm like, how does this go in? Right. It's so ugly. Right.

He's just like Marcus Camby, kind of. Like, that's his shot, but even when he's up close to the rim, he's got this floater that just kind of looks like what you would do in third grade. He's also like one of those guys that... He's just like a British dude. He seems like he controls

the tempo of the game. Yes. And there's a few players like that that are interesting to watch. Like, you just see the dominance. Right. And however they dictate the game's going to be played, that's how it goes. I tell people all the time,

Jokic, he's like John Stockton and Shaq combined. Oh, wow. That's true. That's true. I'm like, yo, this is... With a little Dirk. A little Dirk in there. Yeah.

I like it. What episode is this? 90? Are we at 90? 97? 94? I don't know. Oh, wait.

Who's our 100th? Who's the 100th guest? Sam Bank at 90? 97? 94? I don't know. Oh wait, who's our 100th? Who's our 100th guest? Sam Bankman-Fried? No, I don't know. Who do we have? Don't even say it. Don't even say it. Alright. John, what episode is it?

Episode 92. Welcome to The Compound and Friends. All opinions expressed by Josh Brown, Michael Batnick, and their castmates are solely their own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions. Clients of Ritholtz Wealth Management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. Hi, everyone. Hey. I'm Josh Brown, here with Michael Batnick, and we're here to tell you about GlobalX ETFs.

Michael, did you know that GlobalX ETFs was founded in 2008? No. And for more than a decade, they've been pioneers in the thematic investing space. I've been aware of them since at least like 2010, I would say. I met these guys once. I did a bell ringing with them. What are they known for? You tell me. They have a, no, thematic investing is big. Like thematic investing is something that the public loves. And it's just a question of which theme catches fire at a particular time. Alright, so what's a thematic investment? AI, clean energy,

etc. Well, I was about to give it to you. So, for example, there's an ETF, the ticker is PAVE, that's U.S. Infrastructure and Development. They've got a lithium and battery ETF, the ticker is LIT. So, things like that, copper miners, robotics, and AI. Oh, bots, that's a big one.

They've got more than 30 forward-leaning thematic strategies. It's a research-driven approach to thematic investing. You can learn more at globalxetfs.com slash insights. See the link in the description of this show for more on GlobalX thematic strategies. Episode 92 of Compound and Friends. Welcome back to your favorite financial-flavored podcast. Everybody's here.

John's in the house. Duncan's here. Nicole is here. Robbie P. Right? It's been a minute. I haven't given you your shout-out yet. Rob Passarella is sitting in with us.

And our special guest this week. I'm so excited for this show. I wrote you, we wrote you like a, an official, an official, okay. Listen to me do the name too.

Dion Raboan is an award winning journalist writing about markets and the economy for the Wall Street Journal. His work has appeared on CNBC, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, The New York Times, ESPN, and others. Dion Rabot, welcome to the show. Thank you, thank you.

I love the applause, but I love the effects. This is great. What'd you do? No, that's a real crowd. That's a real crowd. Behind the glass. What did you do for ESPN? I didn't even know that.

So when I was down in Brazil, I covered the World Cup. And I just kind of wrote about here's sort of some of the business economic stuff going on surrounding the World Cup. What year was that? It was 2014. Who won that year? That's Germany, I think. Was USA like competitive in that one? Actually, the thing I wrote for ESPN was about how people thought the US might start to be competitive.

And then no. And then no. And then no. Well, it was, people were saying in maybe 10, 20 years, this is the start of them being, the U.S. being competitive. And do Brazilians actually buy it? And a few of them did. They were like, yeah, but there's 0% chance. Whoa. That's a Michael Batten.

0% chance. So you interviewed Brazilians about the U.S. team? Yeah. That was one of the things I did. They must have thought that was funny. A little bit funny. No, I think they expect it. They think that Americans are all about us.

So they were like, yeah, of course, that's what you're doing. Speaking of Brazil, we're going to start off talking about inflation. Ooh, great segue. So let me set people up, though, a little bit on you. Because I watch all your— So I'm a subscriber to the wall street journal and like everyone else i'm consuming as much and you were gonna end your subscription until i until you came along that's right um like everyone else in this world i'm like defaulting

more and more to video and audio and i'm not reading as much as i used to it's not because i don't want to it's just this is the pace of life now. Your videos are like ubiquitous all over the Wall Street Journal's coverage, like because you're talking about the most important things that are going on right now for investors. You talk inflation, you talk banks, central banking, the Fed, like this is what this is the ballgame right now. So when did you start doing video for Wall Street Journal, and what's it like to be the guy? Wow. All right. That's quite a question. It's a good one. It's a good question, though, right? It's a spectacular question, Josh. Thank you so much for asking it.

Of course. Of course. So when I came on, actually, this was going to be my job from the beginning. They said, we've got this new role we're creating for this thing we call Journalists as Creators, people on YouTube. And so your job will be to have a YouTube channel and we want you to talk about markets. And one of the things that I found when I started doing that, we initially just started out doing these kind of longer 10 minute videos about a single subject. And what we found pretty quickly was like 10 minutes is too long. People don't want to sit for 10 minutes on one topic. What they want is quick bite size, you know, three minutes,

get in, get out. And so we started kind of, we, it took us a while to get from 10 to three, which is how long they are now. But then the other thing that we've been able to do that we found recently is if I do a live stream, I can go a little longer. So I can do seven minute live streams, 15 minute live streams, 20 minute live streams. And we'll do it like yesterday we did one on CPI data, or I should say Wednesday. CPI data came out and we unpacked the CPI. What a pro. Because you know this goes up tomorrow. I know. Yeah. So Wednesday, 10 a.m. after the CPI data comes out, we go through the CPI data. I say, here's what markets are doing. Here's why markets are doing that. Here's what was in the CPI report.

Let me take you through the details. Here's what markets are reacting to. Here's the part, you know, if you just look at the headlines, you might not get the full story. So let me give you the full story. And we can do those kind of live streams. And that also gets put up on the website. So here's what I was going to say about that. You can get all of that video from Bloomberg or CNBC or Fox Business also, but you might have to wait 30 minutes for them to cover all these other things. Whereas if somebody just wants that right away and the video is sitting there, they could just click it.

Okay, here's WSJ's take on CPI data. I got it in three minutes or five minutes and I'm out. That is the way, from my perspective, that is the way things are going. What do you think about that? No, I agree completely. And I think I also try to explain it in a way where if you're not a savvy financial professional like yourselves, you can still understand what I'm talking about. You can still relate to. If you're opening up the day, I know it's a lot of numbers and it can be

kind of intimidating. I try to say, no, no, no, here's what that means. Here's what this actually means in context. Let me contextualize it for you. So for YouTube, that's what's necessary there. Twitter is very different. Twitter is like, here's the most sophisticated take with like, is that a joke? No, it's a deadly series. Some of the smartest people in the world who pay attention to economics are on Twitter and they will like look for the most obscure detail of a CPI report and they'll do like a tweet thread on it. And most people

they have no idea what's going on. They just want to know enough that they can get on with their day and their curiosity is sated. Did you seasonally adjust that tweet thread? I did not. It could be longer you mean? Okay. Alright. So they let you set up your own YouTube channel though which did not. It could be longer, you mean? Okay. Alright, so they let you set up your own YouTube channel, though, which is

interesting. It's not WSJ's YouTube channel. No, so it is WSJ's YouTube channel, and they've set it up. It's just like any YouTube creator out there, like a vlogger, like a YouTuber, they have their channels, but this is a WSJ, like, Dion Reboan markets channel. That's what I mean. It's like

purpose-built for a creator. Yes. So you look more like a creator, and the channel looks less like it's a Wall Street Journal. Everyone knows it's Wall Street Journal, but, like, they're leading with you and not just with the brand. Yeah, this was very intentional. This was part of, like, a partnership that they have with Google, with YouTube,

of a partnership that they have with Google, with YouTube because they want more evidence-based and more factual content on YouTube. Google wants more. On YouTube, yeah. And they partnered with WSJ and that was part of what we did. We're trying

to create more good stuff on YouTube rather than just a bunch of noise. Because YouTube could have a thousand people submit a video on CPI the day it comes out. But if one of those is, this is a journalist who works for Wall Street Journal, is responsible for the things that he says, that's a win for them to put that in front of the audience and not just the other 999, you know, God knows what. Exactly.

Okay, totally get what. Exactly. Okay. Totally get it. So you're having fun? Yeah, it's been great. It's been really good. How often are you, how often are you guys putting stuff up? So I'm going, I do a weekly look ahead on Mondays, Mondays at 10 AM.

And then we'll do a second live stream at some point, depending on when data comes out. It's like this week, it was Wednesday with CPI. Next week, it'll be Tuesday, 10 AM Eastern. Tune in. Okay. With when retail sales come out. It's like this week it was Wednesday with CPI. Next week it'll be Tuesday, 10 a.m. Eastern, tune in. When retail sales come out. On Fed Day, we go live right after the Fed meeting. So whenever that is, it just, and so it moves with data like jobs, CPI are the big ones. But if there's a big, we've done existing home sales when real estate was a big thing. So it just, it depends on what's happening. And we'll have have each week usually two. We might be scaling that back to one. We'll see.

But every week I do like a look ahead and then something based on it. There's a rhythm to this stuff. Every month, it's the second Tuesday of the month, this comes out, right? Exactly. So there's like – and then what's interesting is like the things that people pay attention to evolve over time. Yes. And there were things that we used to obsess over. The unemployment report is a great example, actually.

In the recovery from the great financial crisis, every first Friday of the month was unemployment day, and it was a huge deal. And now that's not the thing. The thing is CPI. Right. And in three months, God knows what else it will be. So you guys will adjust to that. I remember when PPI was a big thing.

People were like, and I had been telling people, like, yo, we got to look at P will adjust to that. I remember when PPI was a big thing. People were like, and I had been telling people like, yo, we got to look at PPI. I can't get hyped for PPI. I'm sorry. I do my best. It's back to being boring now.

But like when PPI was going up to, I think 11, it peaked out at, people were like, people were hyped. PPI was trending on Twitter one day. Like that was how. German PPI.

Yeah. People were really excited about the Deutsche PPI. German PPI. I sold all my stocks when German PPI. Yeah, people were really excited about the Deutsche PPI. German PPI. I sold all my stocks when German PPI disappointed. I'm still waiting to get back in. All right, so April CPI is the big story this week. What did you think? I thought, again, it was just aligned with expectations.

And this has been the theme for, I think, the past couple months or so. There hasn't been a data report that's really disappointed or whatever the opposite of disappointing would be. But it's not shocking anymore. Well, it's up to the point. Last year when we were getting the 4%, I guess 4% prints was probably two years ago at this point. But when we first got those big prints, the stock market went wild. The VIX went wild. Now we get 4% and it's baked in, right? We on. It's baked in and it also is bullish, right? Like, you saw the stock market went higher after that. I think, actually, initially, right after the

print, it jumped up and then kind of came back down and then went back up again. But yeah, exactly. And 4.9, like we're saying 4, but it really is closer to 5. Let's put this chart up, John. This is consumer inflation. This is year over year. The blue line is prices without food and energy, which is theoretically less volatile. And then the blue line is prices without food and energy which is theoretically less volatile and then uh the gray line is just plain vanilla headline so we're at five four point what person something four point nine four point nine percent and then the month over month was point four yeah so that's like what everyone's to your point that's this is just what it is now yeah okay yeah but but it is in line with expectations,

but it's still high. You're going to have a three-handle, like two prints from now. Just roll off from, because remember, this stuff is year over year. So we're getting there. But month over month was 0.4%. It's like nothing.

And coming off such a high base. No, it is nothing. And that is kind of the back and forth in markets. And really, it's all about stickiness now, which is tough to extrapolate from a print, right? Is this sticky? Are we going to stick here around 5%, 4%? And that's the big question, because if we roll down to 3%, I feel like the market's going to go crazy. So, I mean, this is not a homogenous report. There's a lot of different categories and subcategories in here. Food away from home is up 8.6% year over year. That's like Applebee's. And it was up 0.4% month over month. So it's still going.

I got a food truck yesterday. And you know what? I was reminded. I got a food truck yesterday right outside the Salesforce building. I love food trucks. I haven't had a food truck in five years, and I don't know why. I hate food trucks. I'm very anti-food trucks.

What kind of food was it? Why don't you like them? I feel like the premise doesn't make sense because I used to go to food trucks back when this first became a thing in LA. And the whole idea was we're in a truck, so this food is going to be cheap because we know that we can't provide you what you would normally get in a restaurant. But now it's like, yeah, it's like the food you're getting out of a truck is twice as much as you get in a restaurant

I'm glad you mentioned that because I got like Middle Eastern it was like chicken kebab over a salad with like the white sauce and the red sauce and I love that shit

it was $16 yeah I think there was a Luke's lobster truck with a $30 lobster roll it kind of defeats the purpose but that's my point

so that's up 10% year over year and it's still going up still 0.4% month over month. I feel like that's just a thing. Like food trucks, I've been anti-food truck for a while because people just figured out that food trucks are now a novelty and so they can charge more for them.

But that has been a thing. And actually what was really interesting, I talked about this in the live stream, was food at home had been going up a lot faster than food away from home. And actually last month I think food at home was down 0.2%, whereas food away from home was up. So they kind of flipped a little bit. Yeah, so food at home, you're right, was up 0.1.

Food away from home was 0.4. But not to belabor the food truck point, but you're so right. When we used to be at the other place, there was like the falafels that I would get over rice, and it was like six bucks. Yeah. The good old days of 2018. The good old days.

Are you talking about a cart or a truck, though? Because I think you're talking about a cart. No. And that's a whole different. No, no, no. I don't, no, I don't with carts. Oh yeah. Right.

I'm a truck snob. Only trucks. Only trucks. Let's put up this one month percent change in CPI. So this is, this is the real thing that really matters. And so 0.4 last month was 0.1. That was a little bit more benign. February was 0.4. month was 0.1. That was a little bit more benign. February was 0.4.

January was 0.5. That's literally from last month to this month. And that's the inflation that people feel, right? Like nobody remembers necessarily what they paid for something last year. But if there's a big material jump from last month, for me, like that's the type of inflation that the consumer really like takes issue with and could have a substantial impact on the economy. But again, this is like within the range that we've been seeing since – I don't know. This is last August, right? So anything to say about this bottom chart?

It's trending in the right direction. Yeah. I would say the top chart, I mean, you look at the difference between April 22, May 22, June 22. And then February, March, April. That's a huge difference. That was wild. So, June 22, CPI up 1.2%. Right. And that's over May.

Yeah. Right. The month before. But yeah, look. 0.4, 0.9. Stocks were crashing. 1.2%. Right. And that's over May. Yeah. Right. The month before. But yeah, look, 0.4, 0.9. Stocks were crashing.

1.2. You know, during that period of time. So it, it actually, it, it, it made sense.

And now things seem to be moderating, which I guess is, is the whole point. Some of this moderation is coming because financial conditions are tightening. And some of it is just, we're not in a pandemic anymore. Those shortages no longer apply. Well, energy.

Other than labor. Energy was the big one. Did gas ever hit $5? We have this. U.S. headline, CPI. So, services is blue. That's the big one. I love this chart, by the way.

It's a beautiful chart. Who made this? That's from Bloomberg. Okay. I hate this chart. He actually hates it.'s from Bloomberg. Okay. I hate this chart. He actually hates it. This chart is trash. Get this out of here.

I'll tell you one better. It's a trash-ass chart out of here. Zero Hedge tweeted it. Oh, okay. It's actually factually incorrect now that we mentioned it. Yeah, yeah. Get it out of here. All right.

So, I mean, food is calming. Everything here seems to be calming down except for services, ex, food, and energy, which is sticky. That's the stickiness that you're talking about. Yeah, yeah, and that's exactly the question because you see, as you can see, and this is why I previously, before I knew where it was from, said I like this chart. But you can see the services component start to get bigger and bigger and bigger, right? And the numbers are coming down, but that services bar just is going up, up, up. And that's the thing that isn't, like, it's not exogenous. It's not something that was necessarily,

I mean, people are going back and paying more for services now because we're more excited, but we're kind of removed from that, right? Like, we've been going out. And the prices aren't coming down. And the prices aren't coming down. So look at this,

the top five individual contributors of US headline year over year. Like, gasoline is not even there anymore. Rent is, looks like plateauing. I don't know. Used cars and trucks, that's negative. What else is in here that's like meaningful? I don't know what all this stuff in turquoise is supposed to be.

So used cars and trucks are down. Negative, yeah. Are down 6.6% year over year, but up 4.5% month over month, which is really f***ing weird. There was a huge month for used cars. And new cars and trucks went the opposite way. New cars and trucks, I think, were down.

Yeah, that's right. Well, yeah, new vehicles were up 5.4% year over year. We have these month over month. John, you want to switch? So this is month over month. And, you know, energy is small. I mean, it's not falling. But the problem is the blue line.

So getting back to services, the year-over-year increase will obviously come down, right? They can't continue to rise. It's 5% forever. But the prices are not ever coming back down. Disney is never lowering their prices. Like all of these things that we pay for

for these activities, ticket prices are never coming down unless we have like a severe recession. The rate of change will slow down, but you're not getting back the prices from five years ago. So that's the sticky part is the thing. Yeah. And the other really interesting part about this, right? There's a few, there's a, I could talk CPI all day. I'll try not to, but within CPI, so shelter is, has been a big part of this consistently. And in that last chart you show, you could see shelter also, the percentage increase going up and up and up. But what we've seen in real-time data is that rent prices are coming down, right? Or at least slowing down

in terms of the increase. But you're not seeing that in CPI. And it's because CPI, like the housing component of CPI is a lagging indicator because generally we all sign new leases in January or everything starts in January. And so it just gets fed in over time. And at some point that is expected because of the real-time data we've got on rent to just drop and really sizably come out of the CPI. And that could make a huge difference. So you could start seeing That's when we're going to start being worried about deflation. Any day now. And it's so crazy because it's – so I literally asked someone from – I think it's BLS, Bureau of Labor Statistics that puts this out. Correct me if I'm wrong.

I got a bunch of acronyms in my head. But I asked someone from the agency that calculates CPI. I was like, why is it that shelter is such a lagging indicator and you can't – and he was like, yeah, and he kind of explained everything I said. And I was like, okay, but why can't you guys fix that? And he was like, yeah, we just can't. Yeah, make it not lagging. Make it not like – Adjust it.

And I was like, is there a way you could explain it so that I can explain for our readers like why it is this way? And he's like, no. It just is what it is. It's weird. A lot of this data they've been collecting the same way since like the 1960s, 70s.

And it's just, if you start changing how we're publishing it, you know what's going to happen. Everyone's going to say, oh, Biden wants to report the inflation differently. You know, like,

it's almost like, it's almost worse to correct it, which is why now you see a lot of economists turning to like apartments.com and they're looking at more recent data to try to get ahead of when that lag will catch up. So a lot of people are updating like for Zillow numbers. Like if you include that,

it looks a lot different. And that's the stuff that Jerome Powell is pointing to. He's saying we're seeing this in this more real-time data. And that's telling us that actually shelter inflation is coming down. And so we're not as worried about this overall pace. We think the market is responding or the economy is responding to what we're doing. Okay. So it does seem like inflation is heading in the right direction. We got PPI data today.

Producer prices rose in April at the slowest pace since early 2021. That helps. Put that up. That's wholesale inflation continues to moderate. So this didn't seem to freak people out as much, but these numbers were every bit as extreme. Right. Oh, yeah, they were. Or more so.

And it led CPI up. So every time you – and you were getting kind of PPI usually the day or two days after. And CPI would be like five and PPI would be six. And then the next month, CPI would be six and PPI would be seven. And you just had that consistently happening. And then now it's let it on the way down. Now you see down 2.3%. Right. So they both peaked let's say February,

March, April of 22. And they've both been coming down ever since. Just not as quickly as people would have liked. Yeah. I think CPI peaked in June. And I think PPI peaked and then had a little bit more of a pickup there. But yeah, basically. And so the market's reaction, at least the bond market's reaction in terms of what does this report do for Fed funds rate for June?

People think they're going to pause. So the chart on the screen is showing the implied probability of a 500 to 525 Fed funds rate, which is where we are today. And, uh, there we are. So it's basically close to a hundred percent. So the market thinks that the Fed is done. Obviously there's a long way between a hundred percent probability that rates are still where they are now. This literally Now this, this literally changes every single day. And June is over a month away. Obviously I think it's June 23rd. Um,

but the market, the market's saying that it's enough. But we got, we got the employment report. We got CPI. We got PPI. I don't know. Is PCE later this month or do we have it already?

We get a, let's see. You've got one in June, but yeah, it's because it comes out as part of the GDP report, but there's also another PC. There's weird PC reports. Okay. But there's also another – there's weird PCE reports that come out. But anyway, the super interesting thing because I get super into Fed Fund futures too is the market is pricing in a 0% chance that rates will be where they are now, 5 to 5.25 at the end of the year.

Meaning they'll be lower. 0%. Yeah, all lower. And it's – I think right now the odds are on 75 basis points of cuts. Yeah. And that's where I think it's 40% to 50% of the market is. That sounds weird to me. Why do we think people are pricing in cuts?

They're not saying they're going to cut. They're not. They're saying the opposite. The five-year treasury is like a 3.2% yield or something or 3.6%. You're seeing across the board the market does not believe the Fed is going to hold. And we're getting to the point where the rubber is going to meet the road. A thing that I said on my live stream a few weeks ago was – or actually it was at the most recent Fed meeting. I was like, all right, the easy part is over now because it was like inflation is rising.

It's getting out of control. It's all anyone can talk about. Just raise rates. You got to raise rates. It's obvious. It's obvious. So now they've gotten to the point where – and we're going to talk about some other things that I think play into this, but now, okay, inflation's coming down.

You've got unemployment starting to pick back up. You've got these banking crises and all these other things. Now you've got to make decisions. Now you've got to say, what do we prioritize? Because we've got two things happening here. We've got the economy kind of starting to deteriorate. A lot of these Fed manufacturing surveys, a lot of PMIs, all those things really starting to look pretty bad.

And then you – but you also got inflation, CPI at 5%. So now what do you do? And this is the hard part. The hard part is like do we stay? So we're not raising anymore. OK. Do we stay here or do we start to cut in advance of what looks like a recession in 24? I mean, is that the right – because there's no sign of – They're not going to do that.

There's no recession this year. And the Fed almost always reacts and is not proactive. So it could be a while before those cuts show up. It could be, yeah. And I think that makes a lot of sense. But again, the market is very clear on this. Like you look at the bonds. You were just talking about the five-year, three-year,

like very clearly showing they do not expect the Fed to hold here at five. Yeah, the two-year is 3.9. Right. So one of the biggest market-moving events is every time Powell's on stage. Yeah. Every time Powell's on stage, the market does what it does. Value stockie, Kesah Hatic on the Fed. He said, this is a guy on Twitter,

the Fed should be less transparent, less guidance, less speeches, no minutes for meetings, just brief press releases announcing actions and keep it all behind closed doors. All of the speculation around statements is a waste of time for everyone involved. I think I really agree with that last sentence. How long have you been listening to me say this? The Fed should just shut up. What's this guy's name? Value Stock Geek. Value Stock Geek. Is that Alan Greenspan? I think it's Greenspan. I think it's Greenspan's burner. Yeah, I think it is.

Or maybe that's Powell's burner. You guys know Powell has a burner, right? That's how Greenspan used to roll. Right, exactly. That's what I'm saying. Twice a year, he'd do Humphrey Hawkins testimony. And then when they did a rate hike or cut, he would explain it in a statement.

You'd have to read it. So somebody on CNBC would read it. It wasn't even English. Yeah. So, Dion, is the Fed too transparent? Too much talking. Ooh, that's a great question because they're doing this because they want – They don't want to –

They want calmer seas, right? They don't want all this crazy people freaking out. They want to give you as much advance notice as possible. And what we haven't seen really on Fed days, though, is just the market freaking out after a cut or a hike. It's like generally it's priced in, and if they do a little more, you get a little more reaction. If they do a little less, they get a little less reaction, whatever it is. But the point was to calm things down, and I don't know that that necessarily worked. Well, this is a tradition that's recent this is Bernanke started the press conferences he they would do something with rates and then

like almost after an NBA game you come out and say all right here's what we're looking at and then they would he would read a statement and then the Q&A that's all yeah in the last 15 years they weren't doing this prior and they could stop they could and Powell's the guy who started doing them at every press conference. They didn't used to be every press conference. It used to be this is a live meeting or this is a press conference meeting. Now it's every time. Did Yellen do it every time? No.

Powell was the one who started doing it every meeting. Yellen did it, I think, four times a year. And Powell was like, no, not enough. Every meeting. Also, when Yellen spoke because it wasn't 40-year high in inflation, it wasn't all eyes. You know what I mean? It wasn't like must-see TV like it is now. Right.

It's weird the things people want to watch because I remember I used to be a sports reporter, and I would go to these press conferences with these coaches. And then they started putting them on TV, and I was like, why does anyone want to watch this? I go because I need to write an article, and I need quotes from this coach to fill out my article. And I feel kind of the same way about the Powell Press. I watch it because I need quotes. from this coach to fill out my article. And I feel kind of the same way about the Powell Presser. Like I watch it because I need quotes. I need to see what the chairman says so I can contextualize. Did you ever get sent to Washington to be in the room?

So I've never actually been in the room in D.C. I was on the Powell Presser like when they were doing it virtually. I was one of the – yeah, I was in that. But I actually went to D.C. for it. Who does the journal send these days? Woj? It's not Hilton Roth anymore. No, Tim Ross. I just called him Woj, by the way, by accident.

No, because we call him Fed Woj. Fed Woj. Yeah, yeah, he's Fed Woj. So getting back to just this inflation, John, if you put this chart on, please, of the wages. Obviously, wages are a huge component of inflation. I don't know if wages drive inflation or if inflation drives wages. But the good news is, I guess just strictly on inflation, is that we've got Bank of America data on after-tax wages and salaries. And they all peaked about, I don't know, two years ago at this point.

It's like 21. And so they break it down into people that are making less than $50,000, between $,000 and $125,000 and over $125,000. And they're all going down to the right with the $125,000 and above category negative year over year. So if you make over $125,000, you're this yellow line. Yeah. And that is now negative wage growth for that group. So when does this hit services?

When does this hit the economy? Does it not? Is this just a normalization of an aberration? I actually don't know that it can't be both of those things, like the normalization of an aberration and also it hit services. I think we've been in this environment where people had a lot of built up savings. People, you know, they put a lot more aside because you just couldn't spend the money, right? There was literally, you couldn't go outside. You couldn't go to a restaurant. You couldn't go to a bar for a long time. And then I think for a while, people were afraid. People didn't want to go to bars. They didn't want to go to concerts. They didn't want to go to NBA games, right? And as that's slowly reduced itself, you see people, okay, now I want to go travel now.

And you had a big rush, but folks' wages have not kept up with inflation, right? Like we're just now getting to a point where CPI and the wage growth are at similar levels. Even at the low end? At the low end they were. At the low end they were. Those were huge jumps for hourly workers at the low end of income. There were. But those – but I mean you're talking about someone who was making like minimum wage.

And then that person now is making – like instead of $8 an hour, they're making $10. $16. Well, no. I mean if you think about the jump from like $8 to $10, that's – what is that, like a 20% jump? Yeah. My quick math isn't good. But that's a 20% jump. That's double CPI at its peak.

But it's – right. But the dollar amount is small. The dollar – so that's what we were talking about. We were talking about those folks, right? Those folks going from $8 to $ 12 to 14 or 12 to 15 even. It's going to help you out in your life, but it's not from the economy side or from the big picture macroeconomics. It's not going to make a big difference. Right.

One thing I do want to point out though because we didn't talk about it in this was we are right now on pace looking at earnings from Q1. Corporate net profit margins are expected to pick up for the first time in seven quarters I think. You had six straight quarters of declining from the record. So the record was 13% net profit margins for S&P 500. We are picking up now I think we're on pace to do 11. half percent for Q1 23 which would be the first increase in six quarters and that actually I think will have a lot more to do with inflation if inflation picks back up because you've got now companies with that with more pricing power and executing that pricing power yeah oh they've done a great job company like U.S. companies have done an amazing job keeping up with inflation absolutely

yeah they've actually outpaced you could say that they were they they poured gasoline on the a great job. Company, like US companies have done an amazing job keeping up with inflation. Absolutely. Yeah. They've actually outpaced inflation. You could say that. They poured gasoline on the inflation fire because they kept raising prices.

Right. All of the companies and the consumer staples that continue to raise prices, look at their stock prices. They're on fire. Yeah. Pepsi and all of them,

they're on fire. So we're getting some signs that the economy might be softening. We had US jobless claims today jump to the highest level since 2021. Right. So it's notable.

It's not like, you know, you would have to squint if you zoomed out to see it. That is going. But it's going. It's a breakout. Yeah. It's a breakout. So what is this? 264,000 initial jobless claims last week.

Yep. And what was it a year ago, roughly? 200. So it's a new range. But again, these are historically low levels. Yes. Right? And unemployment is still historically low.

But you've got that. You've got copper breaking down, having one of its worst weeks in the last couple of years. I mean, not last couple of years. I think it's worst week in maybe a year. I don't know if copper means anything. You say Dr. Copper. Dr. Copper.

I'm not saying it. I'm not saying it. I'm not saying it. I'm just saying, but I'm not saying it. I'm finding you for sure. Okay. What's this one? This is gold? This is from Dion. Let me see. Oh, this is my- Oh, this is large versus small. Yeah. Yeah. This is a big one for me also, Dion.

These companies do have pricing power versus those that don't? No, I think this is actually expression of worries about the recession. So I think what we're seeing is rather than folks kind of piling into treasuries, they're kind of piling into big tech. So this is the Qs? Yeah. Way outperforming the S&P year to date. And then the Russell 2000 is actually negative this year. Right.

And just looks horrible. Russell 2000 is actually negative this year. Right. And just looks horrible. And I 100% agree with you. Like, it's just money flows into the equities of companies. And they're starting to use mega cap tech. I don't want to say it's like a safe deposit box because it's still volatile. But it's almost like Apple will be fine.

Right. That's the mentality. Apple will be fine. I think that's like 60% of it. And maybe the other 40% is these companies,. I think that's like 60% of it. And maybe the other 40% is these companies, not Apple, got the shit kicked out of them. And they were really good at writing things and protecting their margins and cutting inefficiency. Facebook fell 75%. Amazon got more than cut in half.

Google was down 45%. Yeah, it's a combination. And so it's also a bit of a snapback. Where these stocks are coming from. Yeah. Yeah. So it's both. It's both things. I agree with It's also a bit of a snapback. Where these stocks are coming from. Yeah. So it's both. It's both things.

I agree with that. I agree with that 100%. Why can't we just take all of the data that we all discuss and feed it into- The blockchain. No, AI. There you go. That's the new- Yeah, that's what's out.

Come on. Let's say you took 100 years worth of all these economic data series and you fed it into AI and you said, all right, now you have everything. Go back, look at what would have been optimal monetary policy based on these 50 data points on the economy. And we'll just have a committee of humans who once a month look at what the algorithm says to do with interest rates.

Do they have to follow it? Look at what the algorithm says to do with interest rates. Do they have to follow it? No, but it's strongly recommended that if they're going to deviate from what the AI says – You mean dissent. If they're going to dissent versus the AI, they better have a damn good reason like a bank run or something exogenous that's not in the data. But if not, like the AI is better than this committee of 12 people who used to be professors at princeton i mean i'm just like i'm just spitballing here but like yeah it is it's like a star trek episode where they land on a planet and there's no government it's like a computer

what do you mean you're old star trek's on like now stop no but like you land on a planet and there's a computer determining what the laws are and it's the inputs are this is how the least amount of people get killed so these should be the rules

so if you I would just be curious to see let's not put the AI in charge let's just run it in parallel with the federal

open market committee and see how far apart they are wouldn't that be an interesting experiment so I'll say that is that is from Star Trek, but it's also from Idiocracy. Like that thing that you...

And maybe it's not so good. So there's, you know, they're preferential, but no, I think you're onto something there, and I think it's kind of the same reason it's taken MLB like 20 years to, you know, get an automated strike zone. We still don't have an actual audit. Even though we've seen very clearly that like-

What is the reason? We don't need umpires. It's just tradition. Right, exactly. And I think that you'd get that same pushback with the Fed except for they'd make the case that the economy would fall apart. It's like the illusion of control. People want humans with their hands on the steering wheel.

Well, let Powell do the press conference. I'm not saying like shove the AI in everyone's face, but just like the committee. Just have it. Don't tell anybody. Instead of the committee parsing 50 different things,

we let the algorithm do that and then the committee can dissent or agree with the AI. You know what the best algo is? And then do the press conference.

The best algo is the two-year. How about they just follow that? Just follow the two-year. But it's not an algo. It's people. Exactly.

Yeah, but so they have like a human AI, which is all the researchers who you never hear about at the Federal Reserve. Right, f***ing throw it out. It's not working. We have a boom and bust cycle every seven years. What do we need it for? I mean, it's great. It's good content. Yeah, there's a lot of economists out at work, man.

I don't know who's going to back that. Hang on. The economy has been incredibly steady ex the pandemic for the last 20 years. Yeah, because you printed $20 trillion. No, no, 13, 15, 15. Yeah, my bad, my bad. Because you put opiates into the system. Right, yeah, 10 trillion.

Nine, nine, let's be honest. Between the Fed, the Treasury, all the congressional programs, it's like a lot of money. It is a lot of money. It would be remarkable if it weren't steady. The San Francisco Fed is estimating there's another $500 million worth of excess savings

that will be burned off by the end of the year. Yeah. And that's actually a little rosy. You think that's optimistic? I think that's optimistic, yeah, a little bit. Fine, but I've said this before, but it is a bit ironic that the thing that caused inflation, which ostensibly will cause a recession, is the one that's keeping the recession at bay. It was the fiscal stimulus.

All of that money, obviously supply chain had a lot to do with it, but all of that money really caused the inflation. But all of the money is continuing to allow people to spend, which is keeping the economy afloat. It's very odd. Druckenmiller says U.S US on brink of a recession, sees hard landing. This is this- That's not like him. He was at a Iris own investment conference,

which I guess they do virtually now because I didn't get invited. I am predicting something worse than 2008. He did not say that. Oh, I am not, excuse me. He did not say that. You're right. I am not predicting something worse than 2008.

Druckenmiller said, yet to be a good risk manager, quote, it's just naive not to be open-minded to something really, really bad happening. I only know that he didn't say that because I saw a clip of him saying,

I am not saying this is worse than 2008. So don't isolate that. No, that's literally what he said. I'm not predicting something worse in 2008. And you said no one was predicting a recession this year. Yeah, hey. No, every economist. I got, I got. No, for real, in the beginning of the year, towards the end of last year,

that was, all we were talking about was 90% of economists agree a recession will come. Yeah, I was, I did an article about that. I interviewed all the, all the banks that are primary dealers. I asked them, do you predict a recession? Was it legit 90? It was close, right? I don't know that it was 90. Okay, but it was off the charts that are primary dealers. I asked them, do you predict a recession? Was it legit 90? It was close, right?

I don't know that it was 90. But it was off the charts. Yeah, it was like most. You talked to the chief economist at every one of those banks? I talked to someone who could tell me what the chief economist, like whatever their official opinion was, if they had a house view, like was it recession or not? Can I ask you a question?

Why wouldn't they predict a recession? Well, because why would you? Because if you're wrong, you lose more for being wrong. No, you don't. Yeah, you do. For sure. No, if you say no recession

and there is one, you're fired. Yeah. If you say yes recession and there isn't, you say, well, the economy is stronger than we thought

and carry on. There's no reason to be a contrarian if you're an economist going into 2023. And why be a bull? Yeah. Who does it help?

There's no upside. Who does being a bull help? Well, it helps if you're right, right? It's like the payoff if you're right. It's asymmetric. No, but I agree it's asymmetric. It's asymmetric because if you're bearish and wrong, not like doom saying, but if you're just like, yeah, I'm concerned about the economy and then things work out okay, nobody gives a shit. No one's mad at you. Right. But if you're like, everything's fine, what are you talking about? And then you work out okay, nobody gives a shit. No one's mad at you. Right. But if you're like, everything's fine. What are you talking about? And then you have a recession, you're out. But I think you're comparing two unlike things.

And this is a thing that us journalists get annoyed by. Because what you're saying is- You want me to leave? Yeah, Michael will stay. All right, go ahead. No, what you're saying is a hard no recession versus a wishy-washy, I think this could be better. Yeah, you're going to get pounded more.

So that's why every economist tries to take this, well, I think under these conditions, perhaps under, you know, in this case. However. However, on the other hand. The job is not to be right. The job is to keep your job. Yes. The job is to keep your job. I understand that. So it was hard. So I think when a lot of, yes, exactly. I think when a lot of these banks come out and say we think there's going to be a recession, I think that's meaningful. OK. All right. Well, we had a lot and they're still saying it. They're still saying it, yeah.

And eventually there will be one. If they keep saying it long enough, it will happen. Can we talk about the banks? So are you having fun yet? I'm having the best time of my life. All right. These are tweets from you. If you're wondering which banks are next to be tanked by investors,

here's a list of the banks still in business with the highest percentage of uninsured deposits. That's deposits in excess of $250,000. You have EastWest Bank Corp, which I think has a lot of Asian money in them. I don't know if it's overseas or what is the makeup of that bank? EastWest Bank Corp, which I think has a lot of Asian money in them. I don't know if it's overseas or what is the makeup of that bank? East West Bank, no, it's, I mean, it's the East West Bank,

right? It does cater to a lot of Asian money, but it's, you know, it's a bank, I think they're headquartered in California. I'm not entirely sure, but they're, you know, it's a lot of- 67% of their deposits are uninsured? Yeah. As of 12-31-22. America, 64%. What's up with that?

I have a dumb question. If you haven't moved your money yet, and you know that the power's- No, I know. I know. Yeah, PacWest this morning released it. It was like 9.5%. But you know the government is not going to let you lose your deposits.

So, like, why bother? I think because maybe you don't know that. But you do. Like, yeah, probably. But again, it's probably, it's not for sure. It's like, probably. All right, here's today. Regional bank stocks plummeted again Thursday after troubled California lender PacWest disclosed it lost 9.5% of deposits last week. Okay, let me unpack this. This is literally, this is a Beverly Hills-based bank. So Silicon Valley Bank blew up on March 10th. It failed on March 10th.

So PacWest stock took another dive last week following reports it was weighing a sale or a capital raise. Those headlines, PacWest said in an SEC filing today, heightened customer fears of the safety of the deposits. The majority of the 9.5% – when they say 9.5% dropped last week, that's almost 10% of the deposits in the bank left. They said the majority of it happened on May 4th and May 5th. So really in two days, this is a bank seeing 10% of the money. What the hell kind of system do we have

here? So this is kind of interesting. Mark Rubinstein did a great piece on PacWest and the stock is down 23% today. KRE, which I'm probably overstaying my welcome in that ETF, I do own it, is only down 2.2% today. So maybe it's like some of the contagion is behind us and it's just being isolated at this point to the banks that have all those uninsured deposits. Yeah, so that was why I wrote the tweet. But then my next tweet, which I also included. Oh, let me finish your tweet.

Okay, so you named Comerica, Western Alliance, 55%. PacWest, 52. Zions, 51. That's the percentage of deposits that are uninsured. Your follow-up tweet was, here are the banks the percentage of deposits that are uninsured. Your follow-up tweet was, here are the banks that had the highest share of uninsured deposits as of 12-31-2022. Silicon Valley Bank, 97%.

Signature Bank, 90. First Republic, 68. And they're all gone. Gone. Okay. I'm not saying anybody deserved to lose money. However, however, why? why would you have $3 million in a checking account when the Fed funds is at four and a half?

You want to know why? Yeah. What, mortgages? Because you're the founder of a company. All right, fine. You parked the money there and they gave you a sweetheart mortgage. I get that. I do get that.

But for everybody else who's not the founder, what's going on? This is the thing I could not answer for you. I wish I knew the answer. I thought that myself. I mean,

they did this story about how Giannis has like 52 bank accounts for $250,000 each. I believe it. I feel like if I had Giannis money, I would do something similar.

I would invest a lot more of it than I can he's Greek for the last 10 years it's worse than European he's Greek right so I totally understand that

right and by the way just that comment I'm talking about the Greek banking system yes oh no no no that's not an ethnic thing

the Greek community will respond we love our Greek viewers I had kebab yesterday I love Greek food are you kidding me I'd like to distance myself from Michael Batnick

right now. It's very tough. We're in a small room. All right. Commercial real estate. Do people ask you about this every five minutes? Surprisingly, no. I honestly would— I'm kind of disappointed.

I don't get a lot of questions about it. Do you have like a strong opinion on this or not really? I've been saying to watch this sector for about a year now, and nothing has really happened. So I've just kind of stopped talking about it. But now things are starting to happen. And it's kind of the same thing as what you were talking about with unemployment. Like it's not the level.

It's the direction or it's the trajectory. The direction is bad. Yeah. The direction is bad and the trajectory is bad. So two things. One of the things why nothing's blowing up yet is that these buildings are owned in like a separate LLC. Yes. And the quote-unquote owners, it's like pooled capital.

It's rarely like a Jared Kushner family. It's asset managers. Everybody owns a small amount of everything. So that's one of the things. So if one building in particular is a problem, it's like affects one LLC and not like a big corporation per se. So that's one thing. Second, the owners of these things are in court for three years

before they actually lose the building. This is not like a mortgage on your house or a car that could be repossessed. You really have to fight like hell if you're a creditor to get an owner out of their ownership of a building. So this is the pace of this is glacial relative to other things like a bank that blow up. Right. And this is, I started trying to write this story and I found out those things

and also just how long a lot of these leases are and how, how hard it is to get out of those. Just make it so a thing falling apart in an instant that would make an interesting story. And it's not going to happen that way. Doesn't it? Right. And so that was why I just didn't write a story about it because— No, this scene in Awesome Powers where he's like screaming no and there's like a bulldozer. Yeah.

That's like moving very slowly towards him. Yes. I mean, it's not cinematic. Right. The rate at which these buildings are going bad. I mean, San Francisco maybe is a little bit more dramatic. Josh said San Francisco is a zero. No, I said what if a city goes to zero.

I didn't say that. No, he said San Francisco is going to zero. Don't try to deflect what you just said about Greek people. All right. Robinhood earnings came out today or last night. Last night. The stock went up today. Do I have that right?

I think the stock, let's see, let's take a look. Stock is, yeah, stock's up. What do you think about 24-hour trading? So we're going to go there

in a sec, but let's just look at the earnings. They lost 57 cents a share. The expected loss was 62. So it's basically a blue chip. Revenue was better, 441 million versus 425. I thought this part was interesting.

Payment for order flow remains a significant part of Robinhood's business, even as it has begun to make more money from other revenue streams, such as, you guessed it, collecting interest on customers' cash balances. No run on Robinhood's bank. During the first quarter, the company earned 36% of its total net revenue from payments for routing stock and options orders. All right, so one, I thought that was a much bigger part

of Robinhood's revenue, didn't you? Yeah, yeah. I thought payment for order flow was like 90%. Did you know that? It's only about a third at this point. But that's, I'm just pulling up the slides from my sweet, sweet quarter app. That's because net interest went from zero

to what was it? Yeah, $208 million. Well, not zero. It was like 60-ish a quarter in 2021. It was $208 million. The irony of the Fed raising rates and that being the thing that bails out Robinhood is amazing to me.

That's incredible. It's like pretty poetic. So in other words, the Fed jacks weights up 500 basis points, puts legitimate banks out of business, legitimate air quotes, and turns Robin Hood into a double digit stock price again. I think that's kind of funny. That's poetic. I mean, let's look at some of these charts. I actually love Robin Hood's slides. It's very, very clean. We're looking at net cumulative funded accounts and it's just flat lines from Q2, 21. It's just, it's stagnant.

What's that? Uptick. They added 120,000 accounts in Q1. It's not nothing. Stop. I mean, fine. Stop. It's flat. Where are they finding 120,000 more kids that haven't lost all their money yet? But look at the monthly active users. So again, it rebounded, but 21 million at the peak, and you guessed it, 2021.

Can I tell you something? This is going to move with the market at this point. Unless there's another meme frenzy, basically Robinhood new accounts are going to be a proxy for how did the S&P do last quarter. I think there's a floor. I don't think it's going to go below 11 million, give or take. I don't think so. We already got the washout. If the market falls down to 30%, it doesn't matter.

These people are still trading. There's another great chart. Listen, so this is credit to them and credit to corporate America. Their adjusted EBITDA bottomed in 2022. And like every other company on Wall Street, they got religion. And their margins are up and going in the right direction. So, yeah, they're still losing money on a cash basis. But it's not as bad

as you would think. Single digit stock price, no meme stocks to trade. They're making money on other stuff. They aggressively cut their stock-based comp, which was completely out of control. But they did announce, to Duncan's point, what did they announce? 24-7 trading? Well, so

I hate this because I'm a Gen Xer and so I knee- knee jerk hate everything that didn't exist when I was 23 years old. Maybe I'm so I'm open minded to maybe being wrong on this, but they want to do 24 seven stock trading. I guess all the counterparties would also have Robinhood accounts and they would probably make you sign a waiver. Like, I understand that these are illiquid markets and maybe my execution won't be optimal. They'll update their terms of service. They'll update their terms of service. And the people that are so desperate to get a trade off on a Sunday morning will be able

to. Maybe it's not the worst thing on earth. I don't know. I just like things the way they are. So what? That is very Gen X of you. It is. You got to take on it.

Like, leave it alone. It's fine. Does anyone want to watch stock prices seven days a week like it's crypto? Does anyone really want that? Yeah, I think because that's who their user base is. But do you know that, do you know, do you know, does anyone realize how important that circuit breaker that we get every night is in volatile markets? How amazing it is that like the bell rings at four o'clock, there's two, two hours of aftermarket activity. And then it's almost like fighters return to your corner, ding, ding, ding. And you get a break. You get eight hours to, to fight with your wife, go to sleep, wake up the next morning. And like, do I still

want to panic sell everything? Who's making markets at 2am Eastern time? morning, and like, do I still want to panic sell everything I own? Who's making markets at 2 a.m. Eastern time? Like literally probably like Binance type people. Here's a quote. People who are gaming other people. I saw Meb Faber tweet this today. This quote is probably close to 100 years old at this point. It's from Edwin Lefevre, who wrote Reminiscence of a Stock Operator.

Lefevre. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I had to do it on purpose, but it's definitely not Lefevre. I'm just reading what's on the screen. Lefevre. I'm just reading what's on the screen.

Okay. Sorry. I was in France recently. I think we could take my word for it. No, I actually mispronounced it. It's Lefevry. But it definitely is not pronounced that way. And now it's Lefevre.

Les jours, c'est je. Je parle en français. Nous parlons en français. Tu ne parles pas. All right. Take it back. not pronounced that way. And now it's spelled. Whoa. All right, take it back. All right. All right. All right. He challenged me in French. You don't even know what's going on I can't speak French either

we can talk about everything always but not all I can think of is cow dung nights

alright what do you got read this quote before we forget what we were talking about the quote is anything that helps make addicts out of occasional traders

should be avoided as if it were the bubonic plague. Well, that's what this is. Sorry. But that's their business model. Yeah. They need like addicted behavior. Right. I mean, that literally is Robin Hood's business model.

I don't think that's controversial to say. They need people to trade because that's how they make their money. Agreed. So anyway, I hate it. Maybe it'll happen and two years later I'll get used to it and I'll be over it. You know what? I don't think that many people are going to be doing this. This is how it starts.

Wait, by the way, what starts? What is your fear of this? So my feeling is, so when the market closes and there's like a frenzy going on, good or bad, people need a break. Like I don't think it's healthy for people to be trading all day long, even if it's just five days a week, when right now it's enough with the trading. You got 9.30, 4 o'clock, there's pre-market, there's post-market, enough. Like stop. Everyone put pencils down. Tomorrow's another day. You can wake up and maybe feel differently and calm down. When we get these like really volatile markets, I think people are going to wish there was a break.

And if you're a professional doing this, now you have a responsibility to monitor what Robinhood traders are doing at 9 o'clock at night. How about this? Josh is right in the sense that nobody who's trading in the after hours, whatever the hours may be, is going to make money except for the market makers. Right?

Consistently. People are going to lose money doing this. Robinhood will make money. Market makers will make money. Investors will lose or gamblers will lose because that's what we do. That's what happens. Now you're going to have to start making videos

at 8 o'clock at night. No, no. That's what's not happening now you're going to have to start making videos at 8 o'clock at night. No, no. That's what's not happening. I will say you sound a bit like my dad complaining about the rappers with the gold jewelry. I'm very aware. I'm very aware that that's where I'm headed. And the low pants. Why they don't pull their pants up?

I know where I'm going. You know what? Josh acts too old and too young. It's very interesting. Yeah, I'm a bit of a mystery. I got to ask you about this because this is crazy. And I didn't even know. I'm not on Twitter.

So I didn't even know that this took place. But we were doing research on you to do the show. And you got arrested or handcuffed or something? What? This thing. Okay. I don't want to tell. What did you do?

I love the genuine response. I don't want to tell the story. And I don't want you to have to tell a whole long story, but just explain. And then you got an apology from the mayor. This was a big deal when it happened? Well, no. When it happened, it wasn't a big deal. Okay.

The aftermath. Yeah, the aftermath. Okay. So you killed five people, and then what? No. Tell us what happened, because this is nuts to me. No, I was at a Chase Bank in Phoenix. I'm going to call them out by name.

I was at a Chase Bank, outside a Chase Bank in Phoenix. I was doing a story about savings accounts. And literally, I was just trying to talk to Chase customers because I was like, the story was, why do customers at these, the big five banks, like your Wells, Chase, you know, all those, why are they still here instead of moving their money? Because I calculated how much money these people could have saved if they have not kept their money. When is it? Is this summer? This was in November.

November of last year. November of last year. Okay. November 22. So at this point, interest rates are going up. Like you're getting three handle probably or four on a savings account. These people are getting 10 basis points. Right, exactly.

All right, so why? So why? And one of the things we're doing as journalists is just like let me go actually talk to people, right? So I literally went to a Chase bank to be like, hey, person who is a customer at Chase, why is it that you're choosing to keep your money here? And I eventually was able to talk to people and they said, you know, it's just, it's the ease. I don't feel like I'm losing. So, you know, whatever. So I'm there doing that.

And at some point, the manager of the branch calls the cops and says, there's this guy out here. He says he's a reporter because she sent kind of two of her- In the bank or outside? I'm outside the bank on what I thought was a public sidewalk. Apparently it's a private sidewalk. Chase owns the sidewalk.

Oh, you don't want to do that. Is what I learned. Were you by yourself with the mic? It was just me. Again, I'm a print reporter, so I just had a recorder. Okay. Right? So I don't have a microphone.

You and Ben always wonder where do these quotes in these Wall Street Journal stories come from. He's telling you how the sausage is made. Yeah, we just hold a recorder and I ask you questions. So I'm just out there and a couple guys come out and they say, hey, what are you doing? I tell them I'm a reporter. I'm working on a story. I'm just here interviewing people. And they're like, okay, can you not do that?

I'm like, you know, I'm over here on the sidewalk. And they're like, all right, we're going to have to go in and call someone and see what's up. I'm like, all right, cool, do your thing. And I will say the background on this is I've done this, you know, for years. Like being a reporter, sometimes you go out to a place, ask people questions about the place. Hey, you know, this sandwich shop has listeria. Why are you still eating here? Or, you know, whatever.

Sometimes you have to break bad news to people. Yeah, right? And, you know, but it's part of the job. And sometimes you see the cops. They're like, hey, man, you can't be in front of the door or, you know, you can't stand here. So I'm thinking like, you know, whatever. So cop shows up and he goes in the branch. I see him. He comes out. I'm thinking he's, you know, I can't stand here. So I'm thinking, like, you know, whatever. So cop shows up, and he goes in the branch. I see him.

He comes out. I'm thinking he's, you know, I think I'm on the sidewalk, so what can he really say to me? And he's like, you know, hey, they want you trespassed. And I'm like, what does that mean? He's like, they want you, you know, banned from here. And if you come back, you're going to be arrested. And I'm like, well, that doesn't make any sense. Like, if they asked me to leave, I would have left.

Like, no big deal. And he's like, no, well, they did ask you to leave. I'm like, well, they didn't. Anyway, 10 seconds later, he puts me in cuffs and I'm like, oh, listen, you had identified yourself to somebody in the bank that you're a reporter for the Wall Street Journal. Yes. And they call the cops anyway. And they call the cops anyway. Right. Okay. You have to keep in mind, like for people who are just listening to this, I'm a black man and a large black man. So, like, the idea that I'm a reporter for the Wall Street Journal, hard for them to believe. You think there's some element of this where they don't even believe you?

So, I don't know because no one ever asked me. No one said, hey, are you really a reporter? Do you have credentials? Can you show us something? Yeah, I volunteered because I was telling all the customers. I'm like, hey, I'm a reporter for the Wall Street Journal. Can I ask you, you know, do you have a savings account here? Okay. And so, I told them, like, yeah, hey, I'm a reporter for the Wall Street Journal. Can I ask you, you know, do you have a savings account here? And so I told him, like, yeah, hey, I'm a reporter with the journal, et cetera, et cetera.

So the cop comes back. He doesn't even actually ask me. He just tells me, they want you trespassed. I'm like, what does that mean? He's like, they want you banned. And I'm like, well, we don't need to do all that. And he's like, you know, yeah, we do. And like I said, really within, I think, because they've calculated this, a couple of stories that have been done.

It was like within 90 seconds or something. He puts me in cuffs. I'm like, listen, I will leave here. You know, I'll leave here. You know, if you say I got to go, I got to go. That's fine. I'm not going to, I'm not resisting. I'm not refusing to leave.

I just, you know, don't understand what's going on. But he puts me in cuffs and like starts trying to take me to his car. And I'm like, I'm not going to go get in your car. And he's and he's like yeah you are kind of this story has been very well treaded over time so people who want to read about it he's gonna take you somewhere yeah basically he's gonna book you that was my my thinking holy shit so i'm just like yeah tell him you're a reporter i yes i let him know and so this woman who come who comes out of the bank she starts recording and i'm like that's great thank you very much for that. And she's like, what's your name?

Yeah, I'm like, document this, please. Yeah, that's great. And I'm telling her my name. I tell – she's like, I heard you say you're a reporter. I'm like, yeah, I'm a reporter for The Wall Street Journal. I tell the cop I'm a reporter for The Wall Street Journal. You should have said Fox News. They would have said, have a nice day, sir.

All right, go. I'm sure. That was a mistake I made. OK. But yeah, so eventually it turns out, um, that they just, you know, he lets me go. I am, uh, I don't know if he broke me up or whatever, but I don't actually get arrested or charged with anything. Okay. They just kind of let me go. Um, but then, but now there's a video of it. So that's like, now there's, then it gets

a new life. So actually the way it got a new life was, um, a reporter in Phoenix found out about, I don't know if it was from the person recording or someone on, you know, whatever. Uh, and he reached out to me and this is January at this point. So the journal had sent a request for like, uh, our editor in chief at the time, Matt Murray had sent an email to, uh, Jamie Diamond, actually like email Jamie Diamond himself and emailed, and emailed the head of the chief of police and some other people, like, hey, what happened? We don't think this is okay.

We want to know, like, what's your response. Oh, that's cool. Like, they had your back. Yeah, yeah. They wanted to find out what happened. Yeah, they went back and chased their credit, like, two days after that,

after, you know, we all got together and whatever, maybe like a week later. They raised their deposit rate. Immediately. Just for you, though. That'd be great. Their deposit rate is 18%. Yeah, that'd actually be a great way to say you're sorry.

So what did they do? They had corporate comms. Yeah, their corporate comms chief called me and he said he was sorry. He said they're training people over there. He understands that's not the way that these things should be handled. I mean, I'm sure they were humiliated, like the corporation. I'm sure they were humiliated.

Yeah, they genuinely felt bad. And then after the story came out, like the mayor of Phoenix called or emails me actually. He says, you know, we're sorry this happened. This shouldn't be happening. We've, you know, reviewed the body cam footage. The only people I still have not heard from, and we're still pushing, is... No, no, not the people that work there, but the people, like the police department,

like the officer involved. Go Nuggets! F*** the Sons, am I right? Yeah. Oh, so this is personal now. It's always been personal, Josh. Unbelievable. All right.

Just imagine a world where you could get handcuffed for literally doing your job. And I mean... I don't have to imagine. You don't have to imagine. for literally doing your job. And I mean – I don't have to imagine. You don't have to imagine. I was reading these stories and like, wait a minute. Really? What the hell is this about?

Yeah. And for anyone who's like, no, that's not what happened. Like the body cam footage is online. But wait. You can watch it. You did not that day get footage from this woman who filmed it, upload it and say, I was arrested today. But this just came out like two months later. You said,

Oh, that's crazy. It came out too much later. And yeah. And then people started calling and, you know, like I talked to the reporter in Phoenix who first broke the story. I did an interview with him and then I didn't do any more interviews about

after that. Cause I didn't, it wasn't the thing I want to talk about. No, I don't, I don't blame you. I'm sorry for bringing it up. I just thought it was a wild story.

Um, is there any like takeaway from this that is like relevant or anything you want people to know? I mean, racism is real. Yeah, I guess. I thought that was nuts. We'll end on a lighter note. Are you going to call her Liz Holmes or are you going to stick with Elizabeth Holmes? What do you think?

I'm sticking with Elizabeth. I think I'm going Liz. Yeah? I kind of- What about Lizbeth? Like Girl from the Dragon tattoo? Listen, I know she probably almost killed people with fake blood tests and stuff. But I kind of feel like it's America.

It's the land of second chances. And she has a baby, maybe two babies. Are you out of your mind? Yeah. No, I just feel bad. I know she's going- I'm not saying don't jail her. Jail her.

Put her in jail, but call her Liz. She's criminal. But just feel bad. I know she's going to – I'm not saying don't jail her. Jail her. Put her in jail, but call her Liz. She's criminal. But call her Liz. But if she wants to be referred to as Liz, I will abide by it. Yeah, no. I'm up for that if she wants to be Liz. I'm just saying like what you did is f***ed up. You obviously are a criminal.

Convicted felon, Liz Holmes. But she's going away. All right. Google IOD. Do you follow like large cap tech stocks individually or does any of this stuff really matter that much to you? I'm not a big individual stocks guy now. Okay. Let me just point out Google really shifted the narrative this week about AI.

They had their conference. The stock had been under pressure. CEO had been under pressure. And they like came out with 50 different AI announcements in one day. And I thought it was pretty impressive. What did you think from all the stuff they released? Are you going to use any of it? I didn't see it.

It was just today. It was today. It was yesterday and today. Can I say my one takeaway from it was they dropped the waiting list and now they're letting everybody in. And I'm like, I don't want to be at the club that lets everybody in. Unless it's a tool and not a club. And then –

Unless it's a tool, yeah. No, it's the Palm 2 large language model. So they're going to let people use it like ChatGPT. Yeah, well, there was a waiting list though. Like there was a – you've got to be cool enough to get let in. And now they're like, no, everybody come in. And I'm like, is that the club I want to be at? I think – look, I think the email thing was cool where they say to you, do you want help writing this email?

And the example he used was like an airline where you're writing an email to get money refunded for something. And he's saying there are like buttons where you could say simple, elaborate and within this, you don't want to go to a separate site. Within Gmail you can have the AI construct the email and it knows what you're trying to accomplish because it's reading the previous emails in the

thread. So it knows that you're in the midst of, you know, fighting to get a refund or something. I mean if that stuff really works as advertised, and I have no reason to think that it won't, it's really going to be a very big difference just in the way that we all go about our lives. I don't know.

I don't know what it means beyond that, but I feel like they announced like substantial stuff. So I don't know. Any thoughts? On Google and AI? know. Any thoughts? On Google and AI? Yeah. Not really?

Okay. All right. We'll leave it at that. Did you have fun on the show today? I had a fantastic time. We had the best time. I'm so glad you came. I know you do a lot of video throughout the course of the week.

So thank you for doing our video. We do this thing called Favorites. We end the show with maybe anything that you're reading, listening to, watching that you would recommend to the audience. You want to go first? Sure, I'll go first.

All right, do it. So the thing that I am most excited about right now, there's this new podcast. It's a video podcast like this one. It's called It Is What It Is. What is that? So it's a sports podcast kind of in the vein of like Skip and Skip Bayless and Shannon Sharp or Stephen A or whatever.

But it's Mace and Cameron. Oh, no way. Talking sports. So for our younger listeners, Mace and Cameron are rappers. Once upon a time, they were as big, if not bigger, than whatever rapper you think is a big deal now. Yeah, yeah. And it's just them kind of just talking sports, but it's just ridiculous.

It's like two street dudes who are millionaires, but who aren't really that popular now having this really just unfiltered, because it's like, it's clear they don't really care. But is it sports? It's sports.

It's all sports. It's just them talking about sports. Did Maze become a preacher or was that a rumor? Yeah, Maze became a preacher and then came back and started rapping about, you know, the same. Went out of money, came back. Went out of money, came back.

And then Puff Daddy stole his money. Were they horse and carriage? Was that Cameron and Mace? Cameron and Mace, they may have done. But Cameron and Mace were originally in a group together called Children of the Corn with Big L. I don't know how deep you're like. It's pretty deep. Okay, yeah.

With Big L, Mace. This is before Dipset or after? This is pre-Dipset. So this is, yeah, before when they all were starting. But Big L was still alive. So yeah with Big L, Mase this is before Dipset or after? this is pre-Dipset so this is yeah before when they all were starting but Big L was still alive so it was Big L, Mase this is still Harlem

yeah Cameron like they all came out of Harlem and they started this group called Children of the Corn together and it was that's why he was

Murder Mace because all they rapped about was killing people and like you know yeah same same with me all that yeah of course I've heard your mixtape

my rap career in the 90s was sort of a similar trajectory. You definitely tried to do some shit when you were like 15. There is no evidence of this. Yeah. I would just say. Yeah.

This is innuendo. But are they funny? I know Cameron's. It's hilarious. Cameron is funny. It's the funniest thing. You follow him on Instagram? I don't know.

I was not really, because I was never a big Cameron or Mace fan. Okay. But it just, it's so funny. I met Jim Jones the other night. I was at a Benzinga event down by the Chelsea Piers. And it was like a sort of crypto-y. It was – oh, the FinTech Awards. And I guess they had Jim Jones there as an investor in some of the FinTech companies.

Okay, yeah. And they got him to perform, but the crowd was like not ready for it. Did he fly high? Yeah, of course. Of course. I mean, I think maybe a little Hey Ma, but Joel Santana wasn't there.

Right, yeah, yeah. Whatever, he's amazing. I love Jim Jones. But some of these guys I feel like are more famous now, post-rap, just on social media. I think Cameron might kind of fit into – I mean he's got a couple of hit songs. Yeah. But he's millions of followers on Instagram.

Yeah, he's funny. Because he's funny. I don't have Instagram. So I don't follow him on Instagram. So this is – it is what it is podcast. Yeah. Hey, we forgot to plug Future Proof. Are we doing that this week?

I mean, no. No. All right. Michael, we forgot to plug Future Proof. Are we doing that this week? I mean, no. No. Alright. Michael, you have a favorite? My favorite thing of the week was Succession. Okay. No spoilers. I haven't watched the other show. Do you do that every week? I don't think I do. Every other? No, because there was a lot of sports this week.

Are you watching a lot of TV shows or are you just sports and markets? Yeah, mostly sports and markets. I check in with the you watching like a lot of TV shows or you just sports and markets? Yeah. Mostly sports and markets. Like I check in with, you know, the, the sort of the water cooler shows just so I know what's up. But I mean,

I watched, watched basketball every night. Yeah. This time of year, this time of year. And my wife is like, I can't believe you're still watching basketball because the playoffs, like it's like April through June.

Yeah. It's serious. There are people that are doing that and hockey right now. The same hockey playoffs at the same time. Yeah. Abs are out. So I was just like, I'm serious. There are people that are doing that and hockey right now. Not me. Hockey playoffs at the same time. Yeah, abs are out, so I was just like, oh, I'm good. I have a podcast rec also. Joe and Tracy on Oddlots had a really smart semiconductor analyst. I think he's Alliance Bernstein, Stacy Rasgon, and he basically broke down for them in English how AI actually works through the lens of somebody who covers semiconductors.

And when you watch financial media these days, it's like alternating between inflation and AI. And those are like the two big things. Almost nobody who's an investor who has not put in any time really understands what it even means that nvidia has ai chips and how they work this guy did such a great job like literally explaining why nvidia why not amd why not intel and how the technology actually works that everybody is launching and announcing so i highly recommend checking out that episode of Odd Lots with Joe and Tracy. All right. I think we're going to call it a day.

We'll take a brief intermission and then we'll have Dion come back in. We'll do another two hours. Yeah. Can I just say how offended I am that you mentioned Bloomberg again? Well, that's a good point. The disrespect of the Wall Street Journal? You're right. And after Denver.

He went after Denver. You're right. You went after the Greek community. I did not. You're in so much more trouble. Thanks. You're in so much more trouble than I am today. I'm going to plug your video series.

What I want to do is make sure everyone knows how to find it. So it's a YouTube channel. How do they find that channel that features Dion? Yeah, you can just look up Market Takes. That's the easiest way. Or my name, Dion Raboan. There's a lot of vowels in it, so it's hard to spell,

but if they're watching the video. We're going to link out to it, too. Yeah, so just search for me or Market Takes on YouTube. All right. Dion, you killed it on the show today. We're so happy that you came. Hope you'll come back.

You come back? Absolutely. What are you doing next week? I'll be here. Can I come in? You guys have me? All right. Shout out to Duncan, John, Nicole, Sean, and the doc.

Everybody did such a great job this week. Guys, thanks so much for listening. Make sure you do the reviews and the ratings and all those things. The algorithm demands it. We will be back with you very soon. Have a great week. All right. Take us out.

All right. Edit out out. All right. Edit out anything that could get me canceled. Leave all of my stuff in. We might just have to start over.