The Compound and Friends - Eric Jackson and the Search for the Next 100 Bagger

Episode Date: November 7, 2025

On episode 216 of The Compound and Friends, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Michael Batnick⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Downtown J...osh Brown⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ are joined by Eric Jackson to discuss: searching for 100 baggers, the case for Opendoor, Eric's legendary Carvana call, OpenAI's wild week, and much more! This episode is sponsored by Victory Capital & Apex Fintech Solutions. Learn more about GFLW and get important information at http://www.victoryshares.com/ Learn more about Apex at https://apexfintechsolutions.com/augmented-advice Sign up for The Compound Newsletter and never miss out: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠thecompoundnews.com/subscribe⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Instagram: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠instagram.com/thecompoundnews⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠twitter.com/thecompoundnews⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠linkedin.com/company/the-compound-media/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ TikTok: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠tiktok.com/@thecompoundnews⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Josh Brown are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. The Compound Media, Incorporated, an affiliate of ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Ritholtz Wealth Management⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information. Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/⁠⁠⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 I'm doing this show without a laptop for the first time ever. I just want to be able to show you guys my versatility. Did you leave it at home? Yeah, I'm going on to dinner tonight. I want to schlep a bag on my back. What? Oh, no, I still got it. In case you'll worry.
Starting point is 00:00:17 This is like the mad money special effects board. You know what it turns out? John, I think I do need that laptop stand because I'm going to put my phone on, prop it up. Prop it up. Dude, you look like a million bucks. You do. Nobody else is saying that to you? You look great.
Starting point is 00:00:36 I guess it's a cold wind in Canada. You got a wind burn, but it looks like a sundown. Yeah, right. You catch a few ten days. Well, you've been outdoors a lot, so it's understandable. Of course. It was so goddamn windy last night. My house is creaking.
Starting point is 00:00:52 It was actually colder here today than it was in Toronto. Dude, I hate this. A lot of people like the fall. I despise. So I like, I actually like daylight savings time. I like that it gets lighter earlier, but the nighttime darkness, what do you mean? Yes, it is. In the morning, it gets light earlier.
Starting point is 00:01:10 No, the morning just starts earlier. It doesn't get light or earlier. We're saying the same thing. When you wake up, it's light. No. But getting dark at 4.30 is depressing as shit. Yeah, I know. Like, it actually chemically fucks you up.
Starting point is 00:01:21 Well, I like to go to Drake's early morning. So I actually prefer, like, seven, like the sunrise above. 7 a.m. 6.45 a.m. And I actually preferred it when it was, like, darker. All of a sudden, it started getting... Do they have restraining orders in Toronto? When I first told my wife, I was doing this, because my 16-year-old son said, you know, this, dad,
Starting point is 00:01:41 this is a surefire way to get attention. You need to do this. He was right. He was right. He was totally on the mark. But she was like, you can't do that. You know, the police are going to arrest you. You're going to be on the front of their cruiser.
Starting point is 00:01:54 Do you live in that neighborhood? I'm like five minutes away. So basically, yeah. But I'm not in one of these mansions that Drake said. Not yet. No. But my wife was all worried. It's all the door grows to 82 you will be.
Starting point is 00:02:05 My wife was like, you know, if you do those videos, you can't show his house number. Because then people can find him. I was like, honey, he's on the Kendrick Lamar album. Like, it's the Google Maps, like, photo is mansion. It's literally the, it's literally the album cover or the color to this, the single, is Drake's Mansion with a lot of, not Amber Alerts, but whatever those. It's not. It's really bad. That's very bad.
Starting point is 00:02:29 Straight from Google Maps. So, wait, are you doing that every day? And what are you doing? Today was day 80. What do you do? Here, life from New York City. Let's not step on the, let's not step on the, on the show. Well, we're going to get to, we're going to get to all that.
Starting point is 00:02:41 All right. So you promise, you promise multiple 10 baggers for us today? Yeah. How many 10 baggers will we? We're going after 100 baggers here, Michael. Come on. That's my dad. I'm sorry.
Starting point is 00:02:51 100 baggers. I was thinking small. 10 baggers. I was thinking small. You know, when you, when you tweeted the open door, was it, was it 80 cents? I swear to God I almost bought I said this f*** guy He's got something
Starting point is 00:03:00 It was 88 cents The moment I tweeted I bought it earlier I bought it like 70s What's price today? Seven Well it was seven bucks I think it dipped
Starting point is 00:03:10 But it got to 10 Got almost to 11 Are you Nobody can be So now nobody can be mad at you Because Oh yeah It keeps going down
Starting point is 00:03:20 Nobody has the right to be mad at you I should rephrase that Has the right to be mad at you Because it 10 bagged Yeah You know, you're saying it's a hundred bagger, but I'm just making the point. Like, it did 10 bag. Like, people that bought it had an ample opportunity to take a profit if they wanted to.
Starting point is 00:03:34 You're not their financial advisor. No, I think it would, I think at the height, it was like 20 bag. Wow. Yeah. It's not bad. But, no, people still get mad. It drops, you know, you get the hate tweets. You get the hate DMs.
Starting point is 00:03:45 Well, tweet something. Do, you know, do the stock praise up. Respectfully. A, welcome to my world. B, this is the lifestyle you have now. chosen. You made your bed. That's, that's right. I think it's going to work out for you. I actually have some ideas for you, but we'll do the show. All right. John, what episode are we doing here today? Josh, we are on the compound and friends episode two. Oh, my God. Whoa, whoa,
Starting point is 00:04:12 stop the clock. Here's a word from our sponsor. Today's show is sponsored by Victory Capital. Not all growth is created equal. While traditional growth investing focuses on revenue expansion, the victory shares free cash flow growth ETF, ticker GFL. tracks an index targeting something more powerful, profitable growth. GFLW provides exposure to high-quality, large-cap U.S. companies that don't just grow, but generate free cash flow efficiently. The Victory shares team believe strong free cash flow indicates a high-quality company because it demonstrates a business's cash-generating ability after all expenses.
Starting point is 00:04:47 The ETF's index follows a process, screening companies for strong-free cash flow, return on invested capital, filtering for the highest growth prospects, and finally, waiting towards companies with positive momentum. Explore how GFLW could fit within your portfolio at victory shares.com. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principle. Victory shares ETFs distributed by Victory Capital Services, Inc. Carefully consider the fund's investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses before investing. For a prospectus or summary prospectus containing this and other important information,
Starting point is 00:05:21 visit www.v.vcm.com slash prospectus. read it carefully before investing. This episode is sponsored by Apex Fintech Solutions. The time to compete for next-gen clients is now. Transforming your business for the future might seem like something you can push off, but every year you wait, the further behind you fall. Eventually, you won't catch up.
Starting point is 00:05:44 Augmented advice from Apex gives you the power to be what the next generation wants on your terms. It's a modern on-ramp to tailored advice using your brand, your personal touch, backed by Apex Innovation. Learn more at ApexFintech Solutions.com slash augmented advice. Welcome to The CompoundinFriends. expressed by Josh Brown, Michael Batnik, and their castmates are solely their own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of Ridholt's wealth management. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions. Clients of
Starting point is 00:06:33 Ridholt's wealth management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the biggest investing podcast in the world. We are super excited for today's show. We've been talking about it all week and getting anticipation we have a returning champion back in the house with us fourth time i don't know you've been on a bunch but you're one of our favorite you know you're one of our favorite people and uh quite frankly what i've watched you do over the last couple of months it's been really exciting and um i did openly ask a question that i know you weren't thrilled with on the show about your activities which i'm going to give you a chance to tell me you weren't the only one
Starting point is 00:07:15 all right i'm going to give you a chance to tell me why i'm an idiot um but all things considered It's really cool to watch this career renaissance that you're going through. I think it's awesome. And we're going to get into it. All right. Guys, Eric Jackson is the founder and portfolio manager of EMJ Capital and AI-driven, of course, tech-focused investment firm. He launched in 2017. Over the past six months, Eric became widely known for leading the Open Army.
Starting point is 00:07:45 Shout to the way. You just turned me off. I did nothing. Yeah, he did. I'm plugged in C. Nothing. I'll plug it into you. You did something with your volume.
Starting point is 00:07:53 Duncan, John? You need sound. You just turn your mind, then. Oh, because I'm getting beeps. That's why. Okay. Do not disturb on your phone. All right.
Starting point is 00:08:03 All right. Still didn't work. It's not working. John. John, come over here. All right, keep going. All right, anyway, let me keep reading your intro. Known for leaving the Open Army.
Starting point is 00:08:11 We are not AI driven in case you couldn't tell. A grassroots investor movement supporting Open Door, helping reframe its narrative and driving one of the most dramatic turnarounds in the public markets. Eric is also the creator of Rising Dynasty, a growing community of investors focused on power law outcomes, conviction, and long-term asymmetric opportunities. Can I ask you a question? If you're in the Open Army, are you also in Rising Dynasty,
Starting point is 00:08:40 or do you have to buy each of those membership separately? I think you get automatically entered into it. Who movements? Automatically entered into Rising Dynasty if you started in the open arm. All right. For Jesus Christ, one movement was good enough. I'm just saying. It turns out we were bigger than open.
Starting point is 00:08:57 All right. We were bigger than. It's about more than just open. I got that. All right. In December, Eric will be launching EMJX, a Gen 2 multi-asset AI-driven digital asset treasury company where he will serve as chairman. Prior to founding EMJ Capital, Eric managed capital and Iron Fire and Spring Owl Event-driven
Starting point is 00:09:15 partners, where he invested in companies, including Yahoo and Viacom. He holds a PhD in management from Columbia University, and I'm sorry, that's all the time that we have, ladies in general. You're doing the digital asset thing. Are we going to talk about that later? Yeah, well, let's do it. All right. So, well, let's not do that first.
Starting point is 00:09:32 We got to start with the general market, because I think this is the week that something materially in the narrative about AI investing has sort of made a left turn. and Michael suggested we do this in order which I think is a pretty good idea the open AI thing I described this to Kramer it's the biggest player on the board
Starting point is 00:09:57 and yet he's still not in the movie like in other words it's like Kaiser Soze like he's on everyone's lips Sam Altman on everyone's minds he's doing deals with everyone but he doesn't have a public company so yeah we get some financial information
Starting point is 00:10:14 but it's selectively distributed. Very confident in my assertion. You got it? All right. Let me do the intro again. So stop him from whatever that was. He was doing it. Okay. All right.
Starting point is 00:10:32 So the point is, given how the centricity of Open AI to the whole AI investing theme, it's a pretty remarkable situation that it's the only one that's not public. That's like materially important to all these public companies earnings outlooks. Right. And CapEx's outlooks. Microsoft. Future revenue growth. And it's, it's a wild situation. Before we get into the chronology of what took place over the last week, do you feel the same way that it's really a situation that we've never seen before? Or maybe I'm wrong about that?
Starting point is 00:11:08 No. Well, as a public markets investor, I hate that all these companies like, gripe and open AI are still sort of clinging on to this Zuckerberg, I think was the original guy who inspired this idea of just staying private forever. And I never thought I would see the day when a company would hit a trillion valuation before IPOing. And yet, that seems like that literally might happen. Yeah. Now, that couldn't have happened in prior eras because there used to be a rule. Maybe it still exists, but not being enforced. Right. That if you have more than 500 shareholders, you are de facto a public company, therefore you must file financials at the SEC
Starting point is 00:11:47 and be a public company. Does that law still exist? We just, we're ignoring it or? Yeah, I think we are. And what, wait, if that's a law, they're not ignoring it. They are because these investors are in a fund. Oh, the SPVs. So they're counting the fund as one shareholder.
Starting point is 00:12:03 Right. But also access to capital markets, you would have had to go public because back in the day, corporate companies were not doing $30 billion investments. Right. So prior to this week... Wait, I asked him a question.
Starting point is 00:12:14 So... Oh, yeah, you never cut in. Well, no, I'm really curious what you think. The level to which this is extraordinary, I mean, am I overstating it? Am I overstating it? What do you think is the situation? Well, they are, like, probably the biggest private firm. No question.
Starting point is 00:12:35 And you are right that they are linked up to all these other mega, mag-sevans that, everybody already cares about so much. And so it's, it is, and they have this guy who, you know, everybody freaked out about with his Brad Gersner comments last weekend. And, and I've never heard so many references to Jeff Skilling and Ron, uh, and the comment that he made in like 2020, or, no, 2001 on an earnings call where he called, uh, one of the analysts an Ahole for not knowing, you know, questioning his, uh, his financial models or something. Was that same? kind of vibe. And so there were, you know, there's so many people that reacted to that saying, oh, this is the sign that this is the top. We're ringing the bell now. This is obviously an
Starting point is 00:13:21 AI goal. When the founder starts yelling at Wall Street. Yeah. Okay. How dare you question me for like, you know, how I could spend $1.4 trillion on outlays for the next eight years. So we're going to get to that. All right. Go ahead. Let's let's start from the beginning of the saga over the last week. So prior to this week, Open AI was operating mostly in the background. I know people that were following the story. Obviously, we're familiar with Sam. He's public on Twitter. But they were merely for the general public. They were the ones that was powering all the announcements, the Oracle pop, that this, like, but this was the week that they really took center stage. So here's what happened. In summation, we're going to dive into each of these. So it started
Starting point is 00:14:03 with the restructuring for them to pave the road to go public. That's what kicked this off. Then Elon and Sam Altman got into a fight on Twitter. Sam's co-founder, the deposition came out this week and not pretty, a lot of ugly allegations in there. Then, Sam, as we mentioned, was on a podcast with Brad Gerrister and Satya and got super defensive about very reasonable questions, attacking made-up shorts.
Starting point is 00:14:34 And then the CFO yesterday stuck her foot in the mouth and said the government might need to backstop them. Everybody's like, wait, what? She didn't actually say that. And then them saying today, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, of course, the denial, Sam and her saying, no, no, we don't want a government backstop. We just want X, Y, and Z. Let's take these one by one. The restructuring, Microsoft is already consolidating these losses from their open AI
Starting point is 00:15:01 investment. That's like a thing that's already happening. But clarifying what Microsoft stake is is an important step toward the IPO because like they're going to, they end up with what percentage, 27% or something? What's the number? And a 20% claim on their revenue? Okay. That I think is what shoves this whole thing into broad daylight. Like, okay, they're on the IPO runway. Even if there's no timetable attached, they are now saying we're moving forward and this is the first step that one of the first steps we have to take um i don't know what was the elon sam fight uh by the way just the the trillion dollar mark like IPO come on come on on 20 billion dollars of revenue all right so sam hold on let's start here so brad gerson
Starting point is 00:15:51 was defending what he was saying uh people reading too much into sam being feisty i love that about him and our founders we laughed about it after if you listen to to his words, here is what has said. And I think Bucco Capital made the point, and I know you love that guy, said, Sam breaks people's brains, just like Elon. It's a thin line between grifter and visionary and creating true believers to harvest their capital requires rhetoric that makes non-believers recoil. Elon hates Sam not just because he stole his company, but his whole playbook.
Starting point is 00:16:23 And Josh and I were just talking about this. Like, it's a similar thing to what Carp is doing, galvanizing the shareholder base, pumping up the stock, getting mad at everybody else. It's not too dissimilar from what you're trying to do, but it's an effective strategy. Yeah, I mean, I'm not the biggest Sam Altman fan. I love Alex Carp, and people take shots at Alex Carp. Alex Carp of Palantir. He was on CNBC earlier this week doing the same thing against Michael Burry.
Starting point is 00:16:50 That went well. You know, but he's always been like that. He's always taking that antagonistic approach to the shorts. So it's not affected. It's not him, I don't know. I don't think it's anything more than the fact that he doesn't like these shorts. He believes in his company. I agree with you.
Starting point is 00:17:08 I don't think that's as performative as some people think. I do think there's some element of it, like, let's create this us versus them thing for the retail shareholders so that we have this army of defenders. I think there's a tiny bit of that. But I genuinely think when you build a company over 20 years, you become completely intertwined with it to the point where some of saying something negative about your company, it's like somebody insulting you or slapping you in the face. But Carp seems authentic. That's my point. I think it's genuinely insulting to him when somebody is saying, I'm going to short your stock because it's almost like I'm going to bet against you personally. Right. So I totally, I totally get that. Sam gives off a different vibe. Sam doesn't have
Starting point is 00:17:48 a stock to bet against though. No. And like, I don't know, if I put my junior psychologist hat on, like, there is like some defensiveness in him. There is some like weird vibes. You do pick up on there have there there there is a lot of smoke around this company like we haven't even touched on the fact that what was it like two or three years ago when like basically everybody quit that company because of sam and then and then there was this like board fight uh and a bunch of board members left there was a woman on the board then who just did a podcast where basically she sort of out and out said to that sam lied to the board back then and and kind of that controversy was about the fact that and this is elon's problem with it or stated problem with
Starting point is 00:18:29 is that open AI was originally meant to be a foundation that was going to save the world from AI while developing a type of AI that would be like helpful and then all of a sudden it shifted to well we have a for-profit arm too because we need to because we're going to have to fund this technology
Starting point is 00:18:49 and that's totally reasonable and then it shifted to actually most of this is going to be for-profit and not only that we're now in bed with Microsoft and the true believers who are like democratize AI for the people. We're like, wait, what the fuck just happened? Microsoft owns a stake in it.
Starting point is 00:19:05 So that power struggle then leads to Sam saying, it's either me running this thing or it's not going to work out. And the board sides with him because you need him because he's the reason why anybody is investing to begin with. Okay. So that's explicable. What's inexplicable is being in the position that he's in, going on Gersner's podcast and saying something to the effect of
Starting point is 00:19:29 there are times where I wish we were public so that people could get short and I could burn their asses. It's like, wait, what? That's crazy. That's super defensive. And even if you're taking it personally and that's why you're that way, that's a lot.
Starting point is 00:19:44 And then he says to Gersner, who is arguably among his top five most visible defenders and proponents of him. And shareholder. He says, if you don't want your stock, No problem. I guarantee I'll get somebody to buy it from you right now. So people hear that and they're like, whoa, what's going on with this dude personally?
Starting point is 00:20:06 That he's all of a sudden. So I am of the belief that whether there's smoke, there's fire. That part was weird. That was super weird. And that tells me that behind the scenes, there's a lot of that going on. And we just saw a little bit of a glimpse of it. What do you think? I agree.
Starting point is 00:20:21 I mean, I think it was a dickish comment. I think that, but like, are we out to give awards to these guys for being like the best human beings. No, but here's where it matters. If you're an investor in any of the companies that have just seen a 20% rise in their share price because they, quote, are in a partnership with Open AI, this matters to the public investors in many of the largest companies in the world, including Nvidia, Microsoft, and everyone else who's doing deals with Open AI as fast as they can.
Starting point is 00:20:51 So I think that's why this is such a fascinating situation. we don't have a share price to gauge is open AI rising or falling in the eyes of the public? If it was public, how much does it fall after that comment? 15% immediately, more? Or in 2025 logic, it actually rallies. Yeah, these days, yes, probably, yes. And I mean, the question, I mean, that says more about today's public markets than anything. I mean, I think the bigger issue here is, is that, like, AI and what's going on with
Starting point is 00:21:21 AI is bigger than open AI. And so there are forces at work right now where, you know, Sam is an interesting player in all of this, but he's just like one kind of weird guy. He's not just one. He's at the center. But it's $13 billion in revenue. Palantir has a $500 billion market cap and is on a $5 billion annual run rate.
Starting point is 00:21:41 And it's one point four trillion. It's a big deal. And it's one point four in commitments. Like Open AI is powering everything. And he's acting bizarre and him fighting with Elon. So he tweeted, Sam did. And this is in the middle of all of this. This is the day before Halloween, a tail in three acts.
Starting point is 00:21:57 So he shows a picture of him getting a Tesla. John, we have this. Your order is complete. And then he responded, hi, I'd like to cancel my reservation. Could you please refund me the 50K? Which is sort of a weird thing to do anyway. It seems like he's just fucking with Elon just to do it. And then it says, address not found.
Starting point is 00:22:13 So then Elon tweeted to him, you stole a nonprofit. And you forgot to mention Act 4 where this issue was fixed and you received a refund within 24 hours, but that is in your nature. And I feel like Sam... This isn't gentle ribbing. These guys... No, it's personal.
Starting point is 00:22:29 Because also, doesn't it feel like from the shareholder base that Sam is basically copy pasting what Elon did with Tesla? Yes, I mean, but then you could say that Elon copied and pasted with GROC, you know, like what Sam did with Open AI. So, I don't know.
Starting point is 00:22:43 This is like, boys will be boys. You know, this is like... Yeah, but the stakes are like a trillion dollars. That's the thing. I grant you. I grant you. Obviously, like, you know, I'm not trying to make light of the, you know, the fact that like Mag 7 has all these commitments to open AI and vice versa. But I just think that the, that these guys, you know, in the grand scheme of things,
Starting point is 00:23:03 like these markets will roll on. Like, AI, you know, everyone was freaking out over the CFO's comments yesterday or whatever about a government backstop. Sarah Fryer, but those weren't her con. She did not use the term backstop. This is what she said. Right? So read what she said.
Starting point is 00:23:18 Okay. I got it. It's, uh, this is a Bloomberg article, quote, uh, chat GPT creator open AI, the world's largest private company is asking the U.S. government to provide loan guarantees for its massive infrastructure expansion that will eventually cost more than $1 trillion. She was at a business conference for the Wall Street Journal and she, she said, this is where we're looking for an ecosystem of banks, private equity, maybe even government. federal loan guarantees would quote
Starting point is 00:23:49 really drop the cost of the finance again oh shit why even make a loan how about a grant anyway people flipped out on financial Twitter and then she finished that that routine by saying
Starting point is 00:24:03 IPO is not in the cards right now yeah that won't be up to you that'll be up to your privately held shareholders when they've had enough won't be up to did finance Twitter flip out too much over this?
Starting point is 00:24:18 Well, I think the idea that, oh, my gosh, is Open AI, you know, are they going to fail out? Are they going to get bailed out? You know, with Sam's weird answer on the podcast, it symbolizes that, you know, these guys are like another Enron or something like that. And therefore, like, we're going to be all as taxpayers on the hook for them. I mean, I just, it's overdone. It's a great company with great engineers.
Starting point is 00:24:43 Like, like, to bring it back to Open Door. You know, Open Door's been around for like 10 years, right? And so Open Door had some amazing AI and machine learning people before people were talking about AI even, like in the, you know, 2017, 2018. They had rock stars and they don't today because a lot of them quit. And they're, you know, and I've, and basically there are two places where all the rock stars quit and joint. Anthropic and Open AI. Open AI and meta. Basically, those are the two companies that have been paying the most.
Starting point is 00:25:15 So the rock star engineers have gone there. So they have amazing people at this company. And so a flighty CEO at the top. Well, the real concern is now you have some of the biggest publicly traded companies in the country where analysts are baking in orders and revenue coming from these open AI commitments. And you have somebody like Brad Gersner innocently ask something like, how could a company with $13 billion in annual revenue have $1.4 trillion worth of commitments
Starting point is 00:25:48 and then that answer and then all of a sudden people like, wait a minute, maybe these growth numbers that we're baking in for our public investments are not actually going to materialize. It calls everything into question. That's the problem. I think, you know, if I was going to try to make the case for Open AI, though, like in Sam's defense, okay?
Starting point is 00:26:07 I would say there's never been a company out there that's shown the growth of our company. I totally agree with that. Like from the moment of like November 2022 when that chat GPT 3 came out, like there's all these various charts that show like the adoption rate on chat GPT has just been off the charts. It makes TikTok look slow. Right.
Starting point is 00:26:27 It just blows by. You know, forget the iPhone, forget all the thing, Instagram adoption. Remember how that thing grew? Now what they've done with that momentum is very wise. Right. They've made themselves too big to fail. In AI, meaning there are so many partnerships now, including with Nvidia, including with, you name it, Apple, there are so many partnerships, so much, so many overlapping deals or bilateral deals, there are whole groups of companies that are working together that nothing can happen to AI without it affecting the whole, I don't want to say House of Cards, the foundation of the house that we've built on this theme. And that's the part that's concerned.
Starting point is 00:27:10 I mean, it's brilliant on their part. Well, and so, like, and you say, oh, 1.4 trillion in commitments, like, like, I don't even know what that word means, by the way. That's what, like, so I think it's supposed to be eight years or something out or, so, but the question is, like, if, if you're the CEO of this company, like, are you taking your foot off the gas? No. Anthropic is, like, breathing down your neck and, like, Google's coming at you with Gemini.
Starting point is 00:27:34 But what does that mean take the foot off the gas? Slowing down. Should you not make those commitments? Should, like, the question, like, take, like, basically the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the time mask Twitter is saying is, oh, just take it slow. Just go easy. Oh, you know. Just get profitable first. If you believe. But if you believe.
Starting point is 00:27:51 If you, like, if you, like, if you believe what. Yeah. So, by the way, so Sam Altman drops off the podcast shortly after that. He's like, I got to go. And the way. The way, the way Brad was like, okay, no problem. Thanks for being here. it sounded like he knew in advance that he would drop off.
Starting point is 00:28:10 But people turned that into a conspiracy. Like he couldn't take the heat. I don't believe that. But whatever. That was the interpretation. But the thing about keeping your foot on the gas, if you don't, somebody else will. And there's a lot of money out there waiting to invest in anything that looks like it's winning.
Starting point is 00:28:28 Right. So you're right. I agree with you. And I would say that there has never been a platform. If you want to call AI a platform, there hasn't. been a platform shift a shift at this big before it's mobile like you want to compare the shift from desktop to mobile to this to AI like you're talking about like superhuman intelligence right like what's the value of like owning that and like sort of being the first to kind of really dominate AGI or whatever
Starting point is 00:28:59 how valuable is that for the U.S. to beat China how valuable is it for one of the American first? Well if you look at the CapEx, you can only conclude that the smartest people in the room believe it's the most valuable trophy of all to capture. And some would even take it a step further and say, if they don't, they're done. You look at the way alphabet and meta are spending on this, it looks existential to them. Like, that's the only interpretation you could have is that they're betting the company on it because they have to. Right. And it, I mean, and also the interesting thing about those that spending is nobody ever talks about the operating cash flow of these mag sevens and if you yes the cap x has been like up into the right but the cash flow has also been highly
Starting point is 00:29:44 correlated with that and leads like the up into the right you know so there's always been a huge buffer of cash flow for these companies so they're never spending out of their pockets and and these the folks who are making these decisions at these companies someone was telling me like you don't understand like how much like a thought and preparation goes into the business cases before they spend billions and billions of dollars in commitments in their in their budget. So they're not stupid. And they know that there is going to be payoffs from these capital commitments to build out these data centers. Will they all have a payoff or is someone going to lose? Is it a foregone conclusion that met as AI strategy is going to pay off? Well, I think I think the biggest risk is going
Starting point is 00:30:23 to be that the energy grid can't keep up with the demands. So the data centers will be there. But Will the energy be there to kind of power that? And that's why there's been such a scramble just in the last year to build nuclear, you know, get three mile island going again and all this kind of stuff. Matt has said that real estate of a $50 billion run rate and thanks to what they're able to do with the compute. But I think there's a bunch of different risk. That's one that there's just a meltdown.
Starting point is 00:30:47 We just can't power all these things. Or a political risk. Everyone's electricity rising like socialism. Yeah, that would do it. In order to support the growth of these data centers in your neighborhood. That would do it. That's not popular. Another risk is that we hear on one earnings call, uh-oh, the demand is not what we think it is
Starting point is 00:31:03 and these things gap down a million percent. But we're not close there because they all said on the last call that they're undersupplied. They all said the same thing. So that's probably in the future. But then the third risk, which is coming to fruition this week is, hey, wait a minute. Open AI is at the center of all of this. And there is now doubt about the person leading the company. And also, there was this narrative in 2022 and certainly in 23 that Google's in trouble.
Starting point is 00:31:27 Like they better and Google stock got killed And now Gemini is growing fast than open AI Let's put that chart up John Corporate AI This is enterprise large language model Market Share So it's the percentage of the market That they're estimating these companies have
Starting point is 00:31:44 And the only two heading higher Are Anthropic and Google Meta I guess that's Lama Is falling At least relative to the others Not falling in absolute terms And so this is it If Open AI, if they can't make good on the $1.4 trillion that they've committed to,
Starting point is 00:32:02 and obviously all of this is showing up in analysts' earnings per share estimates, lower. Right. Let me share this with you. Deutsche Bank's AI hedge, navigating the data center debt surge. Deutsche Bank AG is taking cautious steps to mitigate risks from its burgeoning exposure to the data center sector. I guess they're raising debt for all these buildouts. okay uh fueled by the explosive growth in artificial intelligence cloud computing blah blah executives at the german banking giant have been discussing strategies such as shorting a basket
Starting point is 00:32:36 of AI related stocks or employing derivatives to transfer risk this is a financial time story who would be nothing less than gleeful to see this entire thing crash and burn we should point that out um what do you what do you think when you see headlines like that if that's even 10% true it's a little concerning Well, like, my first question is, like, what, what are all these AI stocks? Because when I turn on the TV and I see AI is in a bubble, like, okay, NVIDIA. Broadcom. We know Palantir.
Starting point is 00:33:08 Micron. Micron. Dell. Okay. Hewlett Packard. Out of all of those, I would, like, none of those is in a bubble with respect to it's like multiple that it's trading at now relative to where it's traded historically, except for Palanty.
Starting point is 00:33:23 Provided the earnings next year show up. Yeah. Then we got no problems. I agree. But like when I last looked at Nvidia, for example, it was trading like below the 50th percentile of its like sort of like four. 32 times earnings and three years ago it was like 90. Right.
Starting point is 00:33:38 Yeah. So I think people have been skeptical that Nvidia is going to be able to keep up these like multi-billion dollar quarters. And so therefore they're ratcheting down their kind of future expectations, which is why their multiple has been, you know, relatively conservative compared to where it's traded at in the past when it was a faster. grower. So it's really only Palantir. I love Palantir. I love Alex Carp. Yeah, what are you fucking crazy? I missed, I missed it. I missed it. Cause a problem with this guy. I give, I tip my cap to
Starting point is 00:34:05 Dan Ives for that. We'd have Navy seals coming through the window. But last I look, trades at 86 times next year's revenues. You will take it and you will like it. In this room, we believe in America. So I think Michael Burry has, you know, for some reason, he gets lauded as this like brilliant guy because he was on the big short and everybody reports his puts uh on his latest 13 f but nobody ever goes back like six months later and says oh yeah remember all these puts he bought like they expired like worthless and all this you know he does admit i he does say things like i was wrong like that go to cash call or whatever sell one one word tweet sell he owned it um one of the thread boys was pointing out that like for the last four years or whatever it is his
Starting point is 00:34:53 his 13 Fs have been coming out perfectly within a 24-hour window of the same date, quarter after quarter after quarter, after quarter. This one happened like 10 days early and coincided with the earnings call for Palantir. Almost like, by the way, before this thing reports, you should know that I own puts. Right. You think he's sending a message in the timing of his 13 Fs, or have we all just been like eating too many of these mushroom chocolates and we all need to calm down? I think we're, yeah, I think we're all getting a little too hyper, hyper focus on all of these, like, you know, what, what, what color was, you know, his pee when he, you know, got up in the morning or something. I agree with that.
Starting point is 00:35:34 There are people comparing the behavior of Sam Altman in recent days and weeks to Sam Bankman-Fried in 2020 or 2021. That seems a little extreme, too, I would say. But, like, this is the mood out there. There's a lot of people that want to see this thing either because they missed out. I think it's super bullish, to be honest. I hear all that angst and concern and gnashing of the teeth. Yeah. Like, yeah, like, remember the world was going to end because Elon called the guy,
Starting point is 00:36:06 a pito guy, and then world was going to end because he, you know, he sort of made these comments about Bob Eiger, you know, like go F yourself and all this kind of stuff. So, you know, and yet we all went back and we bought Tesla again, you know. It's like, so I just think like, you know, the market rolls on. You know, that's a really good point. And it ties into what you are doing now. The investor class is not precious about the norms and traditions that we grew up with in the 80s, 90s, 2000s, 20s.
Starting point is 00:36:38 Like the investor class now, they love seeing the leadership of these companies acting as unconventionally as possible, telling people to go fuck themselves that they don't agree. like it almost it's like almost like a version of pro wrestling and we're not precious about well in my day a CEO would never act like that well it's not your day right it's a new day the audience for these antics is 27 years old they're on robin hood they're plowing money into their account every week they're buying options they love this shit this is it's a spectator sport so you can fight that tide or you can stay completely out of it or you can lean into it right Jackson has chosen to lean into it. Tell us about your midlife crisis. How did it start? And are you having as much fun as it looks like you're having? The stocks are working. So that's good. But like what's what's what's going on with Eric Jackson? I think the midlife crisis actually started here in this room. We did it? Three years ago. Or whatever. When you guys asked me to in the middle, it was June 2022. And you guys asked me to say like you were talking about, oh, we'll tech ever come back because the things are so bad, we thought, we thought. It's so us. You know,
Starting point is 00:37:56 like, what was the title of the show? Is it, is this as bad as it gets? Yeah, yeah, something like that. So you pitched open door. Duncan, Duncan, look it up. I want to know. Open door and Carvada. Well, I think you said, you know, give us name names. Name names, Eric. Like, what would you? Give us the name of a stock that's going to come back from the day. Yeah, yeah, yeah. One of these like left for dead companies. Okay. And so I said, well, I got two. And I mentioned Carvana and Open Door. And, uh, And I gave the reasons why very similar businesses and one's going after cars and one's going after homes and all this kind of stuff. And I don't know if you can pull up that chart that shows like for the next six months after that podcast.
Starting point is 00:38:32 John, let's roll up. I didn't, I did not see that until like this morning. Your Carvana call on this show was one of the best like Babe Ruth point point at the stands. That was one of the best calls I've ever seen. No, it wasn't. Not for the first six months. No, it wasn't. What do you mean?
Starting point is 00:38:51 No, it wasn't. How much did the stock go up from that day? I know you know. Can I present the case? Yeah. All right. Charts on. By the way, why is it 700 degrees in here?
Starting point is 00:39:00 You guys are doing that on purpose? I'm shedding a layer. So, get the call to lower the 30s. So, yes, it was a legendary call. Carvana is up 1,200% since. John, let's roll through some charts, please. So you pitched this on June 17th, 2012, 2022. Looks great.
Starting point is 00:39:19 Like on the big picture. So these stocks were in massive... The red line is Eric? Yeah. The red line's a podcast. Massive drawdown. So nobody wanted anything to do with these names. Next chart, please.
Starting point is 00:39:31 And then ever since, we know what happened. Carvana's up 1,200%. Open door had a rocky road. But let's zoom in a little bit. So Josh said Eric called the shot as one of the greatest calls of all time. And actually not even close. No, greatest cause I've ever seen personally. Really?
Starting point is 00:39:44 Because after Eric said that, these stocks fell 90 and 80%. You have to have patience as an investor, Michael. I tell you this all the time. I've tried, I, I try, I tried that line with my own hedge fund investors. So, and you know, nobody cares when you're 90% drawdown. So Eric called Carvana, which was a hundred bagger. But right after he came on, it fell another 80%, 90%, excuse me, opened or fell another 80. So you absolutely nailed it, uh, sort of.
Starting point is 00:40:13 But I don't know. So that, the episode was called, it can't really get worse. Oh, it got 90% worse. It got worse. Wait a minute. So this is important, though. You didn't buy all your stock in Carvana and then come on the show. You probably bought that dip.
Starting point is 00:40:28 This is what it means to be an investor. Dip. If you like a stock, it was it $2 at the time? No, when we were on, I think it was $20 or something. Carvana. I don't went down to $2. It went down to $3.50 was the low. It ended up being your average cost if you were able to reveal.
Starting point is 00:40:44 So it had been at $400. It came all the way down to $3.50 in December 22, and then it's come all the way back to $400. That's unbelievable. Oh, shit. So, um, was it the best performing stock of last year? Uh, for several years. Like, and, and, and, and, but what was, what's, like, so incredible.
Starting point is 00:41:04 So, what happened is, uh, I knew this stock. I knew Carvana. We're talking about Carvana first and then we'll go to Opener. I knew I traded Carvana well because, like, in the years prior to COVID, I'd been like a small midcap, like, growth. tech investor. And, you know, Carvana IPOed in, I think, 2016 or something like that. So it was a go-go stock. Like Wall Street didn't care. It was like balls to the wall, you know, keep building these bubble gum machines by the interstates. Don't, don't run it for profitability.
Starting point is 00:41:32 Just run it for growth. And they, they were obliging. And the stock did, that's how they went from like $15 to $400.000 interest rate era. That was the logic. Right. Yeah. But what was interesting to me in 2022, when the stock was collapsing, is that the CEO, Ernie Jr., Ernie Garcia, Jr., he bought $70 million of his own stock that year, $7.0. And so, like, one, and a tranche in like March of that year when it was like, I think it was like $50 at the time. And then another, another tranche around June when we had that podcast around, like $20 million. He followed you into his own stock? But then later on in the year, around Thanksgiving that year, there were two guys. was the chief product officer, another, like, another junior management team guy.
Starting point is 00:42:17 One bought three and a half million dollars worth of stock at $7.50. And the other guy bought about, I don't know, 700K worth of stock. But you, you never, like, you see like CEOs token buying their own stock at the lows. Like Michael Dell, like he bought Dell. And they're billionaires. Right. And almost doesn't matter. You never see like a, like a chief product officer.
Starting point is 00:42:35 Rank and file. Three and a half million dollars worth of stock. Yeah, where do you get that money from? Because like probably 98% of his wealth is tied up in the stock. already through RSUs and all this kind of stuff. And so he's, so it turns out that guy is a Canadian guy. He followed me on Twitter, Dan Gill's name. And so like I reached out to him in January of 23.
Starting point is 00:42:54 And I was like, hey, can we chat and stuff? So I called him up and I said, hey, you know, Dan, I got to be honest with you. Like, I look at a lot of like insider filings. You never see like people like you with respect, you know, spending three and a half million dollars on their own stock, especially like a battleground stock like Carvana. And he was like, oh, shucks, you know, like I'm just a. You know, we've got a tough road ahead of us. It's not guaranteed, but we really believe in each other.
Starting point is 00:43:18 We all went to Stanford together, so we know each other on the management team and all this kind of stuff. And I said, like, I said, to be honest, I don't know if I had that conversation with my wife. Like, I'm the chief product officer for Carvana and like, hey, honey, let's take three and a half million out of the IRA. We're going to roll it into more Carvana, okay, because I really believe in Ernie and the team, and we've got this. You know, to be honest, I don't know if my wife would have been open sounding on. that's a high no way that's a high she's like wait you work there no that's a high level of conviction why was that stock of two dollars what are people what the people think it was a fraud i i'd go on these tv shows where i'd debate like the the wall street analyst covering it and i was like hey you know johnny
Starting point is 00:44:00 from wedbush or whatever like how'd you come up i'd say this off air i wouldn't say this on air it's like how'd you come up with your $20 target you're basically saying like you think as a running company this should be worth 40 but there's a risk that it might go bankrupt and therefore to go to zero, so you'd just pick 20. He's like, yeah, basically, that's how we did. Oh, my God. So, but what are the bear's, what, the person that's sold it at $3 must have thought it's going to zero.
Starting point is 00:44:23 Right. It's going to file for bankruptcy. So that was the issue. They can't keep up with their debt. The debt. They had too much debt from building all the bubble. And rates were rising. Rates were rising.
Starting point is 00:44:30 Who's going to buy a car from this service? This service is dead. And yet you talk to people that used carbone and they loved it, even at $3.50 where, you know, they didn't care about the stock price. They actually loved the service. So, that's, so, so, so, so I, didn't get in right away. I was still, like, working away. I had a big, I had a billionaire, like, in who was an investor in my fund who pulled out at the end of 22 after, like, I had two years
Starting point is 00:44:53 of bad performance. Sam Alden. And, uh, and I was like, and he was like 99% of my A he went. And so I was like, oh my God, you know, like, like, and I had all these, like, lawyers and Kaman's directors and people I was paying money, like a lot of money to saying, Eric, you just got to shut, shut the firm. You know, it's like not worth. He's got to stop doing this. He was all your funds. And now you've had like these bad 21 and 22 years. The way that you do it in the hedge fund world, just shut down.
Starting point is 00:45:23 And then like six months later, start again. And you don't have to show it anymore. And so, and nobody. Well, you don't have to worry about a high watermark because it's a brand new fund. Right. You're never going to hit a high water mark back when you're down enough. Yeah. But I didn't even care about that.
Starting point is 00:45:36 And I just said, you know, what the whole thing's paid for. And I don't know. I just didn't feel right wanting to shut this. although I didn't feel great thinking like, what the heck am I going to do with the rest of my life, you know, and how did I get here? Am I going to be able to keep paying for my kids' schools and all this kind of stuff?
Starting point is 00:45:53 This stock resurrected you. Is that too much or is that about right? Yeah, I mean, I got to work on building like the little AI team within the company. And the first iteration of the first model that they built, these guys come to me and they say, find me the next carvon is AI right now. They said in May 23,
Starting point is 00:46:12 They said, oh, okay, I ran the numbers, boss, you know, and, okay, like, show me the list of, like, what the model says, you know, should be my, you know, top 10 positions in my, you know, portfolio. And number two on the list in terms of size was Carvana at 11 bucks a share at that time. And I was like, are you sure about this? Like, you know, I, can you check your numbers again? Can you take this back and, like, just, just humor me? Because, like, I, like, I don't want to, like, to sort of jump, you know, both feed in and, like,
Starting point is 00:46:40 you know, make, you know, find out later, like, like, you know, two weeks, you were like, oops, you know, we didn't update the simulator and this and that and all this. And so it took him a week. He comes, he comes back. And he's like, no, it's, it's, uh, it's good. Yeah. You know, I think you should really buy it. By that time, it was like 15 bucks. And that's, that's, that's one of the most interesting things about these hundred baggers is that they get priced basically as if they're going out of business. But when they start moving up, it's violent, you know, especially with a lot of shorts. So, so this went from like $3.50 in December of that of 22 to by June it was like 25 bucks it was over 25 bucks so and and it was just a combination of like
Starting point is 00:47:17 oh the earnings weren't so bad like they weren't great but they weren't terrible why don't you sell at that point like where's the conviction coming from well uh so i got in so i i trusted the model and got in at 15 and so then and then i you know stayed with it and i you know the models kept saying no stick stick with it uh but there but between 15 and 150 bucks with carvana there were three separate times where it had major drawdowns. There was one 66% drawdown that it had in the middle. And so, like, this was like a major position. You rode through that with a full position?
Starting point is 00:47:50 I kept it. I kept it. It went from, and that it drew down in 10 days. It went from, like, $88 to, like, $42. Like, no news. There was no news. I mean, I don't know. There's just, like, macro stuff or maybe Sam Alton said something and it pissed the markets
Starting point is 00:48:04 off or something. And so, but then when I, so I just, decided like i'm going to stick with it and but at 150 i started having this voice in the back of my head like the the billionaire who used to have money with me he had like some swedish guy who was like his chief investment officer who worked at his um family office right and so he would always be on my case like eric why don't you take a profit when it's stock two x or three xs you what that's not good enough for you like you need a five x to sell like a 10x?
Starting point is 00:48:36 100x motherfucker. So, like, and that's the mentality, like, that we're all sort of taught growing up. It's like, it's all about batting average. It's like just to eke out a gain over the market. Like, you don't just sort of like, hey, I'm going to like roll the dice and just sort of, you know, let it all hang out and stuff like some of these people like they hear about and trading crypto or something. And so I, but at 150, it was too much.
Starting point is 00:49:02 I was like, I'm sitting on a 10 bagger. I know this guy would be like all over my. my ass saying, like, I got to sell this thing. So I just, but even then at 150, I, I, I shit you not. I believed that this thing was going to go to 400 bucks. And but I said to myself, this thing is volatile. And so I'm so smart. I was the guy who, like, got into Carvonne early.
Starting point is 00:49:22 So I'll just, like, trade it. Like, I'll just sell it up, sell it 180, buy it back at 130. The fantasy that everyone thinks they're going to do. And honestly, like, if you added up all the trades from like 150 to 400, I'm, I'm sure I lost money on all those trades. doesn't work. But it did go, it ultimately did go to 400, which is what you saw. It's pulled back. It's now 300, but still a great company. I don't, I don't own a position in it now. So, but then earlier this year, like, the midlife crisis is like, I'm paying for all these AI guys. And they were, like, building all kinds of models, option models, crypto models,
Starting point is 00:49:54 you know, earnings models and all this. And I was like, guys, like, I'm not like a billionaire myself here. You know, like, I can't keep funding this thing out of my pocket. You're not looking for experiments. You're like applied. Applied AI guys. Let's, let's, let's, let's just pick, you know, two models that seem like they're going to work, okay? And like, it looks like the Carvana model had something there. So let's just try to find hundred baggers. Let's do that in the hedge fund. And then the other thing that worked was the crypto models. So that's what we're going to do with this sort of gen two crypto dat thing, which we can talk about later, EMJX. We'll skip the crypto for this week because I want to get to some of your
Starting point is 00:50:30 new ideas. So Open Door was. Well, let's start with Open Door. So this is an idea that is currently in motion like it's not early or you think it's early but it's already gone up a lot you're already right so you sent it what was the tweet that he said at 88 cents I don't know you tell us what was it
Starting point is 00:50:47 well I got in motherfuckers I just wrote out like it was something like eight or nine thread you said this you said 82 dollars yeah that was the babe Ruth call my call my shot moment I was like this thing is going to go to 82 bucks to share in three years let's just start with the reaction you have people that
Starting point is 00:51:03 know you at that point but you have a lot more people that know you now, right? But then you have people like me who know you from your past life as a very buttoned-up, activist investor. No, but you're a guy. Like, you're a legit guy. So I've never seen you do anything like that. Be like this 80-cent stock's going to $82.
Starting point is 00:51:24 I think people thought maybe that you were hacked. People that know you for a long time know, you're like just an all-around good guy, calm. That's the midlife crisisy part to me. I'm like, oh, this guy's lost his mind. Oh, yeah. No, I got DMs from like... All right. So I'm not the only one that had that.
Starting point is 00:51:40 Adam Furstein, who used to write at the street.com. The scam buster of biotexts. He's like, honestly, Eric. Are you okay? You're okay. Honestly. Like, I just, I don't, I don't want to pry. I don't want to pry.
Starting point is 00:51:53 But, like, seriously, I want to check in on you. Did Herb Greenberg? Come out, come out you? No. Okay. No, I didn't hear from her. But I heard from lots of people, obviously. Lots of hate.
Starting point is 00:52:03 Lots of people thought it was crazy. and I thought it was ridiculous, and I had so, I had no shame. No, I thought the stock was going to work, but I honestly do think it is crazy because I buying, you know a lot more about it than I do at this point, but I feel like it had, it was an experiment that failed. Now, granted, it was in the absolute worst possible environment. I buying in a housing bubble, probably not a great business. We found out.
Starting point is 00:52:26 But I think- Zill threw in the towel on eye buying. But didn't we also learn that you kind of need people involved because I remember vividly one story that came out was some dude who's like this house next to me there's a gigantic barking dog in the backyard neighbor and nobody this house was on the market for three years because everybody knows that the neighbor's dog is impossible will never stop barking and open door came in and bought it and sold it a year later for a hundred thousand dollars whatever the case was and it was like yeah you kind of need people to do this so why do you think that this is a business model that makes
Starting point is 00:52:58 sense in the real world well like so why i did all those things is it's like a combination of just like my own mistakes from the past. And so, like, learning from the mistake of not owning enough Carvana and not getting into Carvana early enough, not calling my shot with Carvana. Well, I mean, I guess I did. But I wasn't very precise on this podcast. I didn't say Carvana was going to go back to $400.
Starting point is 00:53:22 And, I mean, the two models of Carvana and Open Door were very similar. So Carvana doesn't make most of its money from buying and selling cars. It's like I buying for cars. They don't make money from that. They make money from finance and interest. 80% plus of their EBITDA margin that they have to. And there are a lot of great stocks that are just like that type of thing. So I always believed, and it was part of the original tweet thesis for Open Doors, like they got to do mortgage and title, you know, for sure.
Starting point is 00:53:52 Like that's where they're going to make their money. There's a reason why there's two guys who own NBA teams who run mortgage companies. That's United Wholesale mortgage, which is Matt Ishbia. Yeah. And then Dan Gilbert. We're at Rocket, which I'm long. Right. You probably think that Open Door is going to compete with Rocket.
Starting point is 00:54:08 Is that part of your thesis? I think Rockets are great company. Because we will rock you. I think I have another company better that's more of a direct competitor to Rocket. We'll crush that shit too. But Rocket, I mean, the reason to be bullish on mortgage companies and the housing market and American housing is the worst environment ever right now. How could it get worse?
Starting point is 00:54:27 It's, we're at the beginning of the rate cut cycle. You know, it's a huge market. rocket as big as you think of it as this gorilla it's only got a 6% market share like in the whole compete with every bank in the country right for starters so there's an opportunity for for everybody at the table to kind of get in there and they and and these guys you know can tell me more about what you just said open door scores the same on your model as carvana did i'm not saying give us the whole ai formula but like what are the important things if you're out there looking for hundred baggers what are the things that you're looking for well there's there's
Starting point is 00:55:01 a bunch of technical things you can look for. So there are signs of capitulation in the stock and just the seller exhaustion and things like that. And there's signs like getting above a certain moving average that makes sense for that particular stock, you know, which it tells you the narrative has changed amongst investors. Right. From a fundamental perspective, there's a major re-rating that happens when companies go from money losers to money makers. And so Carvana, people thought that Carvana was going to go bankrupt, right? Because they couldn't make money and they couldn't keep up with their debt. And then suddenly they were able to shift and show that, oh, we can make like a decent ebidot margins here. That forces bears to say to re-evaluate whether
Starting point is 00:55:39 or not they want to stay on the short side. Right. And then that alone could trigger upside momentum, which attracts new investors. Yeah. And now short covering is, is another factor that you would look at. Like everybody like all loves to, you know, go through all the most shorted stocks. And just because a stock is heavily shorted, it doesn't necessarily mean. Many for good reason. Many with good reasons. So open door reports in five minutes, and by God, I really hope this doesn't get awkward. I swear to God, if there's some gaps down, 30%, I'm just going to leave and feel very bad. But how are they doing fundamentally?
Starting point is 00:56:10 Like, I know it's very, very early. The CEO just left. We're going to hear from the new one. Is this a viable company? For sure, it's viable. Yeah. No. They just, so they just, the guy who was the C-O-O at Shopify, who was like a $200 billion, I think we would all agree.
Starting point is 00:56:28 Canadian. Legit. Legit company, right? So basically he had to do nothing for the next year or two. And probably Toby Luckie, who's the founder, CEO, is going to bump up to chairman. And somebody is going to get elevated to CEO of that company and make a lot more money. He willingly left, even though he had this stellar reputation to become the CEO of Open Door, a $3 billion company. How much stock did they have to give them? They gave them an Elon-type pay package.
Starting point is 00:56:54 But that's good, though. If you're a shareholder, they want them to do that. Two million shares fully unlocked to him, which wasn't a coincidence because 82 was my price target for it. Okay, you're in communication with the board of directors now. They're taking you seriously. They've been for a while. Yeah. Okay.
Starting point is 00:57:07 How long did it take for you to break through and be like, guys, I'm building the open army. You need to have me in your corner. Well, Adam Bain, who used to run sales at Twitter, do you remember? We know, Adam. He's on the board. And so I think the same day that I sent that tweet out on July 14th with my, like, $82 price target, Adam sent me a DM saying, come on. Really? You know, like, he couldn't believe it. Like, I love Adam, by the way. And super nice guy. So, and, and then it was like a couple of weeks later and he sees the stock moving up so much. It was 10 days after that first tweet where the stock got halted because it traded three times its float on one day. Like, and, and they just halted for like 13 minutes. It went from like, it had gone from like 51 cents at the end of June to, I think it was like got halted, we're almost touching five bucks.
Starting point is 00:57:56 in late July. But this type of shareholder grassroots mania starting on social media, like it's effective and I feel like companies that have nothing left to lose because their share price is trading under $5, they're now actively embracing, they're cultivating this. So if a shareholder comes along and wants to get really vocal and whip up a frenzy about a stock, again, back to we're not precious anymore. historically, the board of directors would be like,
Starting point is 00:58:27 shh, don't encourage it. Now we just saw Hertz save its own life. We saw AMC save its own life by cultivating this type of investor frenzy. So it's now, it's a two-way street. It's not just a thing that's happening to companies. It's a thing that companies are actively participating in. I could tell the old CEO, she wasn't used to it. She was from that old school.
Starting point is 00:58:50 Right. She was like, I'm just going to ignore this. guy. And then she couldn't do that for so long. And the board initially was like, no way we're engaging with this. And then they've obviously totally come around. And now everybody since, look at these other companies that I've taken positions in like better or some of these others, like they've been very- Eric's buying. Yay! They're like, hey, we love you. And like we want to support the retail. And we're going to do video calls. And Open Doors doing a video call today, just like Ballantier. Eric Jackson organized a break dancing competition.
Starting point is 00:59:24 to save the rec center. Everyone's very excited when you're... So now you're in the mix. No, I think it's cool. I think it's cool. Well, now the question is, and you guys talked about this on a previous show, is it a meme stock or is it a cult stock?
Starting point is 00:59:36 No, no, no, that's not the question is. It's a cult stock. The question is, twofold. Do you get nervous that somebody will look at this and say, this doesn't look kosher to me. This guy's long the stock and being extremely vocal about it on social media. I'm not saying what you're doing.
Starting point is 00:59:55 By the way, I draw no distinction between that and somebody getting on stage at IRISone conference just because they're wearing a suit. And saying this $20 stock should be $100. Why is that okay, but doing it on Twitter is not? So I like it. And if it makes people money great, but the dark side of this is if something goes wrong,
Starting point is 01:00:17 you kind of become forever associated with, for better or for worse. Yeah. No, I had a meeting this morning. with some guy in Hudson Yards who, like, he's anonymous on Twitter. So we, like, met him in person. He's sort of famous because he tweets out these photos of his open portfolio. He's, like, gone, like, in one of his portfolios, he's full port open. And it's like seven, he showed it to me this morning.
Starting point is 01:00:38 I think it's like a seven. How much money did you make them? Well, it's a $17 million portfolio. He was in it before I tweeted about it. Okay. But, you know, he's very happy. But he was saying to me, he said, man, I just don't know if I could have done what you did, where you just, like, stick your name out there.
Starting point is 01:00:53 You know, what if you were. wrong? Like, what if you just look like, do you think about that? I mean, you just go back to Canada and pretend that happened? Like, I've gone through so much crap in the last few years. Like, you look at that chart. Like, I've had, like, big drawdowns in my hedge fund. I had this billionaire, like, turn his back on me and walk away. You know, I've gone through like this sort of like internal crisis and stuff. So, like, when people say, like, oh, how do you have the gall to self-respect to stand in front of Drake's house making a video talking about Open Door? Like, you know, I just don't care. Like, you know, like, I believe in open door. I believe in kind of like the types of
Starting point is 01:01:28 philosophies that I'm advocating. You know, I've been amazed with like all the, it's, it's predominantly been like middle class people who are in the open army. And they're from like, I would say it's like 70% are outside the U.S. all over the world. The open army are people who have bought the stock and get, are, are willing to celebrate the company on social media with each other. That's it. It's nothing more. It's not, it's nothing more. It's a new version of GameStop, you know. Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's a retail group, but they, but they, you know, they, they, they are much smarter
Starting point is 01:02:01 than, than what you typically kind of get, you know, get vibes from Wall Street, uh, towards retail about. It seems slightly more cerebral than GameStop. It's taking place more on X than it is on Reddit, is my understanding. Oh, yeah. Okay. There's a lot of weirdos on Reddit now. I love, right.
Starting point is 01:02:16 No weirdos on Twitter. No weird. Imagine this thing peaks at $81. You know, Reddit's got weirdos. Twitter has people who will like. physically harm you in real life if you disagree with them on something political. Do you sell them merch? Like, how organized is the Open Army?
Starting point is 01:02:34 No. Do you have a newsletter that they're subscribing to? Or how do you communicate to them other than through tweets? I haven't. Publicatically. I am, you know, I actually just had a Zoom with Phil Perlman who's going to help me, like, start a newsletter. Okay. Because I haven't had a newsletter.
Starting point is 01:02:51 I haven't been monetizing this. I have a hedge fund. Can I do my film? impression. Yeah. Fucking genius, bro. Like, you do the, you do the letter.
Starting point is 01:02:59 Yeah. Of course you do the letter. He's like, Eric, I fucking love it. You're authentic. You've tapped into something with this rising dynasty, and you're just going to ride it,
Starting point is 01:03:12 okay? Because it's you. Shout to Dr. Phil. So what about these people that you say they're mostly middle class? Are you like, listen, I'm as enthusiastic as they possibly could be, but and also be,
Starting point is 01:03:23 responsible yeah for sure like so i started doing this uh drake series right like these daily videos in front of yeah so what for the people that are totally mystified by we keep saying drake what are you doing so my 16 year old in the summer he's like dad you're always like talking about how you think opens his great stock uh his name's julian he's 16 he's a great 12 once his dream is to get like a d1 scholar we have a son the same age okay um and he said uh but like most people don't watch CNBC. They don't watch Bloomberg and stuff. So, like, how are you going to reach those people? I don't know.
Starting point is 01:03:57 No idea. He's like, well, why don't you do like a video in front of Drake's house? Go viral, dad. I thought he meant like a one time, like, you know, go take a selfie or do a little video. Hey, I'm Eric Jackson in front of Drake's house. Yeah, I was like, yeah, great idea, Julian. You want to come over be my cameraman and stuff? He's like,
Starting point is 01:04:13 no, no, you got to do it like every day until he buys open stock. And I was like, what? And he's like, yeah. Yeah, it has to become a thing. be viral. That's the only way it can be viral. I was like, what? Even weekends? Like, oh, yeah, even weekends, too. Like, how long? Well, it's open-ended. That's why people will tune in because they'll be, like, you know, intrigued. It'll be like the Truman show. And they're going to want to see it happen. And they're going to want to see it happen. Right. Right. So,
Starting point is 01:04:35 so, uh, I said, okay, I'm up for it. So we would go over there. We start filming these videos, usually only like three, four minutes in front of his house. He said, hey, I got a whiteboard dad. You know, we have pictures, John. Hold it up. And, you know, day one, day two. So, so. It's a way, yeah, so. On Drake's house, day one. Pretty nice house. We're going to keep coming back until Drake buys one, share. Look like such a fucking nerd in this.
Starting point is 01:04:59 Hey, Drake. It's Sunday. Raptors have for some. Not for you. You're about to play a show in Copenhagen. No rest for us over here. Been up since three. Doing some analysis on Open Door.
Starting point is 01:05:12 All right, day 19, Drake, back here. First of all, I want to say. I've never seen this competition. Door merch. J.35 back here at Drake's. I got a microphone here. People complained. I can't hear you.
Starting point is 01:05:24 Day 80. Day 80. Oh, my God. This is kind of nuts. We love you. I love that he has a pay phone in front of his house. Isn't that cool? The British, like the red pay phone?
Starting point is 01:05:39 No, it's a Canadian. Oh, Bell. Bell pay phone. I don't know. Anyway. So, I mean, this thing is, I don't know, it's got like 10 million. impressions across all the different videos. And so I feel a certain pressure to get to your point, Michael, like, you know, like you get all kinds of weirdos sending you messages saying, like,
Starting point is 01:05:56 I put all my money into open door and stuff. Like, I don't know if that's, you know, what I would advise. You should talk to your financial advisor and all that. But some people are really like into it and excited about it. And you do feel a sense of responsibility, obviously. I would hope so. And so, and the other thing that you feel is like, how do you keep it fresh? How do you, like, if you're talking there every day, like what, like, oh, he didn't buy any shares today. So check back tomorrow. Now, you have his bodyguard bought stock? Yeah.
Starting point is 01:06:23 So on day 10, we went over at like 8.30 at night. It was dark. And like in the middle of the, the pay phone, by the way, turns purple at nights, which is really cool. If open door goes to 82, I'm definitely getting a pay phone that turns purple in front of my house, for sure. So this guy comes out of the bushes, you know, and at first I thought he was going to, hey, stop recording. and get out of here, guys. He let me finish. And then, like, he comes over and he's like, he's like, guys, what's going on here?
Starting point is 01:06:51 We've been watching you for the last 10 days on the security cameras. What, you're talking about stocks or something? Yeah. And I was like, well, no, it's actually one stock in particular. And I whipped out Yahoo Finance. And I was like, it's called Open Door. And, you know, I was a hedge fund manager who was early into Carvana and it 100x. And we think like Open Door can 100X.
Starting point is 01:07:12 And, you know, his name's Bucky. He's like, 100 X. Like, so what, if I put 10,000 bucks in this stock, like, you know, it could 100 X. Yeah, you know, Bucky, if you did that and I was right and it goes to 100 X, you'd be worth a million bucks. Your investment would be your, you know, he's like, I'm buying this thing on Monday morning. What does this thing trade and all this kind of stuff? So anyway, he's a great guy.
Starting point is 01:07:34 He owns, he owns, he owns, he owns, he owns. He owns over. You're never going in front of that house again. He owns better. He owns open. Okay. And so he said to me, like, he's like, you know, the guy you got to talk to here is. his future. I was like, Future.
Starting point is 01:07:46 Drake's manager. He's like, yeah, future's Drake's business manager. He does all his OVO stuff. Anything business is him. So I'm going to hook you up. But he's, Drake's in Europe right now. It's on tour for the next two months or something. So I still haven't met Future. I call, I, it's texting with Bucky a couple weeks ago. And he's like, oh, man, they just went to the Bahamas. I think they all travel like as an entourage or something. And so he's like, but don't, you know, don't worry. Trust me. I'm going to get them. I got the cheat code for you.
Starting point is 01:08:13 you have to get in touch with Bobby Altoff. She gets these like one-on-one interviews with him. They just did another one. They were in bed together. It was as pointless as the one before, but maybe more pointless. But the point is get her to buy the stock because he follows her. Right. So you got to think about it orthoginally.
Starting point is 01:08:32 Am I saying that right word? You know, I refuse to learn what that word means. I hate that word. Orthogonal to Drake are the people that you know have some way of being in Drake's eye. and so I would think about like where do you see him dropping likes or where do you see him actually he doesn't do a lot of media which I think the the last mystique left about him at this point right but he does he does her show for God knows what reason I want to ask you about some of your new investing ideas and we don't have a million hours to spend on these and I want
Starting point is 01:09:05 people to follow you so they can learn more about them so we'll do like a mini lightning round but before we do, are these all potential 100-baggers or not necessarily? Yeah, I mean, I don't- You won't buy something now. Nothing goes into my portfolio that I don't feel has the possibility to 100-X. Is that gangster? Now, it could be four years, could be five years. I mean, that's one word to describe it.
Starting point is 01:09:27 Why aren't you an active ETF at this point? I don't know. People have asked me that. I guess. You saw Dan I've hit a billion the other day? Yeah, yeah. Where's Tom Lee? Two billion?
Starting point is 01:09:37 Yeah, he must be with grain. You're telling me you couldn't have $500 million under management with a strategy like this. If everyone just says I'm putting a grand in, let's see if Eric can turn it into 100 grand. Right. I'm just saying. Yeah. No, there's a big, there's a big retail following. All right.
Starting point is 01:09:52 Here's your stocks. We did open door to death. Better B.E.T.R. Right. What is this? Well, actually, I think this is going to be the poster child for why AI is not a bubble. So they're a mortgage originator. And if you've ever heard of them, you probably heard that the CEO was the guy who fired a thousand
Starting point is 01:10:08 people on the Zoom call. I remember that December 2020. That social clip. And so it became like a DEI thing. Like, oh, you're radioactive. Ruthless. Wall Street CEO didn't care and fired all these. Well, the truth was better, you know, mortgage originator went from a 55 billion dollar a year run rate at the beginning of 2021 for mortgages that they were originating to five billion by December of 2021. Because rates. Up to the rate hikes. So if your business drops like 90%, like you are going to need to like cut costs you don't he had a thousand people in india that were basically pushing paper around in order to send out commitment letters so people could you know get mortgage offers from all right so he made the company untouchable which is why it sells off so and then it took a while for them to spec because like they got slow rolled at the SEC because they thought it was a DEI kind of issue and stuff oh it was in public yet yeah it wasn't public yet didn't even anyway the stock immediately sold off soft bank owns like 17% of it because they thought it was going to be like the next big thing in mortgages. They had started 10 years ago building an AI team to kind of automate the
Starting point is 01:11:15 whole process. But in 2021, it was still too early. They still had to rely on humans. And the funny thing is when I started doing the research, that year in 21, they could have done over $240 billion worth of originations, but they just physically didn't have the people to push the paper around to do that. So anyway, they fired all those people. They decided to kind of refunds. focus on AI, the guy who actually built their original matching algorithm at Better was the guy who built the Spotify music matching algorithm. And that still is, he's responsible for 82% of the code that still runs at Spotify. But he, he came to better to kind of build this mortgage matching algorithm. Now they're ready for prime time. And they don't need all those people that
Starting point is 01:12:00 they used to employ before. All right. So it's a working business. It's not a, it's not a pipe dream. it exists. It exists. It's like a player. How much revenue they do? And what we're going to see like their earnings are next week. We'll see did like just like we saw with Rocket a couple of weeks ago or whenever they had earnings. Does a little blip down in mortgage rates translate immediately into increased volumes. Yeah. And so thinking ahead, like what might this business look like in a year or two years? How much revenue do they do now? Right now, they're, they're something like, I'm trying to think of their market share. 2.6% I think national market share is,
Starting point is 01:12:39 but I don't know what their revenue is. But they're one of the, they just got forgotten about as a SPAC. And so they basically now have to prove that they don't need these people to kind of run their business. That they have a mousetrap and it's automated and it works. Yeah. Okay.
Starting point is 01:12:58 Every time I turn on CNBC and I see the ticker going by the bottom, I see this I-R-E-N stock. I still haven't bothered to learn what it is. I know people have made a ton of money in it. And I know it's like one of the most actively traded names on Robin Hood. What the hell is Iran? So Iron and Cypher, you probably heard of Corweave. Because Corweave is sort of...
Starting point is 01:13:21 Is it Iris Energy or not? That was their original name. And now they sort of just go by iron. Okay. So Corweave is like, has been one of the most successful IPOs just in the last year. They IPO like last March. Yeah, yeah. And they were seen as another AI play, data center play.
Starting point is 01:13:37 But the funny... I knew that one was going to work because of how bearish I was on it. Came out at 40, went to like 160 or something. I was about to look at you so sideways. Yeah, no, I knew it would work because I hated it. All right. So what is this? But what's interesting about them is that they're sort of like a middleware player
Starting point is 01:13:56 stuck between the metas and the Googles, the hypersalers on top. But they actually don't own any of the data centers themselves. CorWeev doesn't. Or they don't own the land. They don't have the connections to the power grids. They have to go to the irons and the ciphers or the core scientifics and do partnerships with those players to get access to those data centers. And so anytime they sign a deal with a big hyperscaler, they've got to turn around.
Starting point is 01:14:22 Wait, Iran actually owns the data center and Corweave is leasing it? They don't partner with each other. but I'm saying that CoreWeave, you know, has to do deals with iron. Why? Because they wanted to position themselves as we're asset light. Somebody has to physically own it. You know, high margin. So we don't get into the weeds of owning that land.
Starting point is 01:14:44 But it turns out that actually owning that land, having the connection with the local power authority, whatever, utility. And at a fixed rate, by the way, like that's critically important to, you know, being able to deliver the kinds of gigawatt. that now these hypers... So this is a land or a facility owner? So they buy the land in, you know, iron and in West Texas predominantly.
Starting point is 01:15:08 They've got like two huge sites coming online where they actually bought the land. They negotiated the deals for the power consumption rates. And then they started physically building out the data centers themselves before actually then going to the hypers and signing the deals with them. So they're kind of coming up from underneath of Corweave and almost like disrupting.
Starting point is 01:15:28 The stock was like five bucks in April. Now it's 67. Yeah. So I bought, I started buying it at nine bucks. Wow. Do you still think it, you still think it's going to 100 X from nine bucks?
Starting point is 01:15:41 From nine to 900. You think so? So it's now at 70 something, I think, or something. Low 70s. 18 billion dollar market cap. All right, wait, hold on. Don't interrupt the process by which I make money here.
Starting point is 01:15:52 Yeah. Cyphers is the same thing? Same thing, but smaller. All right. But the thing that's big about both iron and cipher is that, And the reason why I like them, as opposed to a core scientific or some of these other players that are out there, is that they, Iron and Cypher have three gigawatts in their pipeline that are going to be turned on or energized in the next 12 months. Like it's under contract, we know it's going to have it. So when you hear that Microsoft saying, oh, we're going to spend more money on CapEx to build out more data centers, that's probably like five years away for them, right?
Starting point is 01:16:19 Because they got to go out and they got to buy the land and build the data centers. So they're going to be looking to do deals with people that actually have access to the data centers now. So when I was buying it at $9 or Cipher, I was buying, you know, just below $4. You know, like people were saying, oh, these guys are just like former Bitcoin miners. Who cares about Bitcoin miners? Those traded a low P.E and all this. Is that what they did, though? They transitioned from Bitcoin mining to this.
Starting point is 01:16:44 Yeah. So they learned from how they built out their data centers for running Bitcoin. Hot 8 was a Bitcoin miner. Is it still? It is still. And it has a new partnership with the Trump's. H-U-T guys. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:16:57 So they partner with, there's a new ticker called American Bitcoin where they own 65% of it. I only buy American Bitcoin. And so Eric Trump and Don Jr. are kind of JV partners with them and that. But their basic hut's main businesses similar to Iron and Cypher, where they're building out all these data centers as well. So you like this, you like this theme. It's basically the energy shortage theme. Okay. Like there's not enough to, you know, to power all these queries for JetGPT.
Starting point is 01:17:23 Okay. Sanna, biotechnology, S-A-N-A. This company is working on a cure for restless leg syndrome, I'm told. Type 1 diabetes. Oh, same shit. All right. So this is a 100 bagger, a biotech? It's a $1 billion stock today.
Starting point is 01:17:40 So to go to $100 billion, they would have to prove, you know, they've basically shown that they've taken a stem cell approach to kind of developing drugs. And the first application of their particular approach to stem cell research was in type 1 diabetes. And they had good animal results, but just earlier this year, they showed in a very small handful of humans, basically they, you know, cured them of type 1 diabetes. So type 1 diet. Cured, not treated, cured. To this point, to this point where they, they, they're, they're, what they're, what they
Starting point is 01:18:17 developed was able to help these people develop, uh, the ability to produce more insulin, which is what goes away, which causes type 1 diabetes. Who do they have a partnership with in, in large, pharma, anyone? Nobody, yeah. So that's a big catalyst when that happens, right? That and also they've got to go through the process of showing, like, on a bigger scale and a human scale.
Starting point is 01:18:36 What does Foyerstin tell you about it? Does you like it or who? No, I haven't spoken to it with him. I've spoken with others. And one of my sons actually has type 1 diabetes. Oh, wow. Like I've been, you know, so I've seen firsthand like what it's like. And 100 years ago, I mean, anybody with type 1 diabetes would be dead basically within a few
Starting point is 01:18:55 month. So it's a huge market opportunity. I like that one. I want to make sure we get to the rest. BTQ technologies. So it's a quantum play. It's post-quantum cryptography. So basically, well, everybody else out there is sort of building quantum computers. Post-quant- So the thing about quantum. Just buy it. What's wrong with you? So last January, Jensen Wong said, oh, I think quantum is like 30 years away, right? And now everybody's saying, oh, actually, including Jensen. Well, he created an uproar with that. Yes.
Starting point is 01:19:29 And then he's like, all right, sorry. And it was self-serving, too, because guess what? Like, if quantum computer really was developed, you know, a QPU would displace GPs that Jensen sells as kind of the new kid on the block. So you have these like small little startups like INQ and Rigetti trying to build their own quantum computers. This is even smaller than those? Well, they're trying to be the, you know, you'll like this.
Starting point is 01:19:50 They're trying to be the crowd strike for quantum. So they're basically trying to prevent a quantum attack. Because why would you want to prevent a quantum attack? Oh, it's a cyber security for the quantum age. A quantum computer could hack into everyone's crypto wallets and basically steal all the... The only way to fight a quantum computer is with a quantum computer. Right. We all know that.
Starting point is 01:20:10 So that's what they do. All right. We'll check in on that a couple of years from now. Defy Technologies, DEFT. Yeah, I've been in this one a year and a half. They're core businesses, they basically sell ETFs. for crypto all in Europe and so not kind of a slow growing not exciting business but they are just now getting into using their knowledge of how they can create these kinds of crypto related
Starting point is 01:20:39 instruments and get them listed on exchanges they're actually trying to tokenize all the sovereign debt in the world which isn't hasn't been tokenized as yet so it's a super small market cap company super big ambitions maybe it'll work maybe it won't it's obviously like a big asymmetric payoff i don't think it's going to work last all right last they they have the knowledge and ability to kind of do it and going after it uh that's why you say ether and eth adjacent scaling uh is a company called et h a so it's just a public company is it a is it a treasury or it's something no this is just the the the etf like the black rock ets for eth oh et ha is the ticker yeah so so it's it's It's just a bullish bet on Ethereum.
Starting point is 01:21:24 Why not just buy Ethereum? Why buy the ETF? Well, I would say, like, wait a month or so, and there's going to be a Gen 2 two treasury stock, hopefully trading called EMJX, which is mine, which will be multi-asset, including Bitcoin and Ethereum and some other Carvana coins that will be part of our treasury. We'll have you want to talk about that. I guess the question is, would you like to hire me as your business manager?
Starting point is 01:21:48 Well, let me pitch you the idea first. this is like you're gonna get me into merch you not no we're gonna go so far beyond merch you know how we're like in this moment where the more extreme version of something is the one that wins versus the more moderated versus the more moderated look i mean look who we just elected mayor well trump too both sides it's just whatever is the loudest most extreme craziest shit that people would normally be like that'll never happen that's the thing that happens like the craziest outcome is the most likely. That's what most people, when you talk to people on the street, feel about the world that we currently live in today. There are some, like, scientific reasons for that, including the
Starting point is 01:22:28 internet and just the ability to am mass huge followings for things that stand out. So, all understand that concept. You could have, like, the first meta, um, meta meaning like, like, almost like ironically, like an in-joke, you could have the first meta active ETF. We literally call it lottery. And, no, but you see, you see your reaction? This is the problem of people today. No, you see your reaction?
Starting point is 01:22:57 That's the reaction I want. Guys, my new active ETF, it's a collection, literally, of lottery tickets. Get along this thing with money that if it goes to zero, you don't care. If you got a million people to put $1,000 into this, you would have one of the biggest active ETFs in the world and that could be your base of capital the way that Buffett has insurance premiums
Starting point is 01:23:21 and different people do fund of funds and they get consultants to send them money this is how I get money for my ETF I tell people it's literally a collection of lottery tickets some are zero, some are 100 baggers some are 500 baggers for all I know but this is explicitly what I'm doing
Starting point is 01:23:41 Yeah, no, it's... Don't you think that would be a hit? Yeah, I think so. And I've... The SEC doesn't care right now about that, I feel like. Well, I don't think there's anything wrong. It's a venture capital model applied to public stocks. Yes, and you're telling people, you're probably going to blow up.
Starting point is 01:23:55 Look, if I have 10 investments... It sounds like he's on board. If I have... No, I'll make the case. If I have 10 investments, okay, and one is 100 bagger, and, you know, the rest, you know, a few, like, keep their value and a few... A few go up a little bit from not that much. Which never happens for public stocks. I'm still sitting on a 10x in my portfolio from my 100 bagger in one position, right?
Starting point is 01:24:18 So that's the value of slugging percentage over, but you need one of those. But you do need one of those. Yeah. And the critics will say, oh, but like Carvana was a fluke. And, you know, it'll never, you know, prove them wrong. How often can you find a hundred bagger? So I remember I tweeted at one point. I was like, I anticipate or I hope to find one of these hundred baggers every six months
Starting point is 01:24:39 or something, and people were like, six months, come on. Who is this guy think he is? That is insane. Yeah. A hundred bigger every six months? How many do we have now? Like, we've got it like, well, I don't know. How many companies, how many companies ever 100 X from single digits?
Starting point is 01:24:54 It's got to be a tiny number. It's not a big number. No. And it's getting harder and harder. The more the open AIs of the world stay private. You know, like you, you, it'd be easier in the night, 98, 99 when the globe.com was IPOing with no revenue. But so, but what I'm saying is like,
Starting point is 01:25:09 People are willing to, look, we see people doing zero-day-tel exploration options in record numbers. People are doing lottery tickets already. They're doing more sports-begambling than they are retirement investing. So we can't change the world. We can feed the public what it wants. That's one thing I'm trying to do with this whole rising dynasty thing and communicating with this middle class, you know, open army folks that are following. is like, don't waste your money on these, like, you know, sports betting.
Starting point is 01:25:41 Don't, don't, there's so many ways, is zero, waste your money on my penny stocks. Zero DTEs, no, Carvana good, open door good, you know, zero DTEs and sports betting bad, you know, is sort of my message. So you're telling people, all right, I get it, you're going to gamble because you're middle class and you don't see a path to yourself becoming wealthy. But they're telling me they're doing this anyway. That's right. You know, I get so many messages from people saying, you know, hey, I'm an electrician, I'm a
Starting point is 01:26:06 pipe layer or whatever, you know, I had a guy who was like a painter, like he paints houses and stuff. And he was saying, like, I spent three, four hours a night studying stocks. And we, we had a debate about, is that your painter? We talked about, he, we talked about post-quantum cryptography in this BTQ stock. Yeah, must have been a fascinating conversation. And he, he knew more about it than I did. Before we wrap.
Starting point is 01:26:28 So if you were to launch the lottery fund, okay, and I'll just give that to you, you can just have it. Yeah. I want a board seat. every all the traditional media this is the top barons financial times they point to you this charlatan is selling people a dollar in a dream grifter you know how much money you would raise because of that
Starting point is 01:26:49 negative press in today's day and age the press doesn't even understand that it works this way we understand it i had a coffee with tim sykes you know you know a few a few months ago here in new york and he was like you got to this is great what's happening with you and Open Door. You got all these haters. You got like Martin Strelli coming after you and all this. It's perfect. You want that. You want the energy because when the energy is there with the positive and the negative. Strong feelings. It's people are paying attention. They care. They care. Dude, I wish you luck, pal. I think what you're doing is super interesting. I love it. I love that it's working for you. I hope it keeps working for you and your army. And, you know, I'm a fan of yours
Starting point is 01:27:29 personally. And to see you finding professional success doing something this much fun, I feel like it's cool So I appreciate it If I've ever given you the impression Thank you guys If I've ever given the impression That I don't think it's cool That's not the case
Starting point is 01:27:42 I'm rooting for you You know I am All right How do you feel? No comment No comment at all Doesn't lend in tears You could say it
Starting point is 01:27:51 One of us should probably say it Just to hedge the show I mean I think a lot of the shit is nuts But I hope it works Well it's working so far You say it's good It is I hope it continues to A lot of the stocks are nuts
Starting point is 01:28:01 Or a lot of the philosophy The post quant You lost me at post-clock. I hope it works. I want people to make money. So I hope it works. I hope it goes to 81, 89, because that would be the funniest thing ever.
Starting point is 01:28:10 I'm kidding. I hope it goes to 80. All right. Now, we always end the show by asking people what non-extradition country they're planning to visit when their portfolio blows up.
Starting point is 01:28:18 What are you thinking? Panama. What do you got in mind? Dude, what are you looking forward to? Tell the audience. Well, I'm going to... Drake finally buying the stock. I'm looking forward to the Open 82 party in Vegas.
Starting point is 01:28:31 So now that's become like a mean. onto itself and like people have made AI videos. Wait, what is this? People want to have a party when Open Door hits 82 bucks to share. Oh. And so, and then they were debating, oh, should we do in Tokyo, L.A., but Vegas won. And then so somebody, I got on SORA or one of these AI video generating sites and created like a video of like Drake and Eric and Keith Ravoy and like all these people.
Starting point is 01:29:00 So, you know, I think that would be pretty cool. people have told me like i'm flying in from antarctica i'm flying in from mongolia so i'll tell you how it's actually going to go drake is promoting steak which is a gambling app drake is not afraid of controversy in any way shape or form uh he actually courts a lot of negative attention especially these days he thinks he's a super villain drake is going to buy the stock and the party's not going to wait till Vegas at 82 it's going to be in to Toronto and i feel like that's going to be your If you could make that happen, even if the stock doesn't go to 82, I feel like you'll still be pretty satisfied. You guys will be invited.
Starting point is 01:29:38 And then your kid gets to meet Drake and it all comes full. All right, dude, I'm rooting for you. I'm afraid for you, but I'm rooting for you. And I just, I hope everybody can make a lot of money. All right, that's it for the show this week. I want to say a huge thank you to John, Duncan, Nicole, Rob, Chard Kid, Matt, Sean. We've done some incredible, Daniel. Who else am I leaving out?
Starting point is 01:30:01 Graham, Keith, we've done some Travis. We've done some incredible work this week on video guys, animal spirits on YouTube every week. It's so hard. What else? Ask the compound has been good lately. It's always good, but especially good lately.
Starting point is 01:30:17 Taking off. Yeah. And last thing I want to tell you about is the ownership channel. So we have a lot of markets conversation on the compound. The ownership channel is about what wealthy people or business owners or founders or employees, shareholders, companies actually do with their money, not trading, but really more about just the process of
Starting point is 01:30:38 being wealthy, becoming wealthy, what are the right things to do? We have an awesome interview up with John Chaffetz from Timberlaine. If you haven't checked out the ownership channel by Ritholtz, now would be a good time. We'd love for you guys to watch it. Give us some feedback. Tell us what you think. All right, that's it from us. Thank you so much for listening and watching.
Starting point is 01:30:57 See you soon. We've got to this you for one more. One more intro.

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.