The Compound and Friends - Everybody's Wrong

Episode Date: July 18, 2025

On episode 200 of The Compound and Friends, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Michael Batnick⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Downtown Josh Brown⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ are joined by TCAF legend JC Parets to discuss: the most important sector in the market, the biggest contrarian call, the only people losing money right now, Bitcoin dominance crashing, what could derail the market, and much more! This episode is sponsored by Neuberger Berman and Apex Fintech Solutions Learn more about NBSD, including important information about fees, risks and performance at https://www.nb.com/en/us/products/etfs/short-duration-income-etf?cid=da_tpy_MYMM3_MYMM_ShortDur&cid=vi_co_p_mymm_shortduration&dclid=CKHfv8mdxI4DFRosiAkd4rQ63A&gad_source=7. NBSD from Neuberger Berman—efficient income, managed risk. Learn more at https://apexfintechsolutions.com/augmented-advice Sign up for The Compound Newsletter and never miss out: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠thecompoundnews.com/subscribe⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Instagram: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠instagram.com/thecompoundnews⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠twitter.com/thecompoundnews⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠linkedin.com/company/the-compound-media/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ TikTok: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠tiktok.com/@thecompoundnews⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Josh Brown are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. The Compound Media, Incorporated, an affiliate of ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Ritholtz Wealth Management⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information. Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Every Tuesday, Josh and I do What Are Your Thoughts and we do a mystery chart. You just sent me the wrong doc. Yeah, I did. And every week I guess it. Dude, I'm... Michael's very good. Michael's very good at this. I look at charts. I want to talk to Josh. My man.

So how are you? How's your summer? Dude, did you get my text message? Strazda texting me like, Yo, Josh is always pumping my stocks. Oh, am I? You didn't get the text message? No. When did you send it to me?

Dude, are you kidding me? I'm terrible. You know I'm really bad at that. Look at your text. This is- But from what day though? This is Strazza slacking me that he sees a headline. Which stock was it?

I don't know. But he was talking about it and and Straz was balls deep. Rocket? But it shows up in his news feed. Josh Brown pumps whatever it is. No. He doesn't pump anything. I don't know. I discuss stocks. It says, the news was, IBKR Vol Pop Josh Brown Mention was the exact headline.

What was the stock? IBKR. IBKR Vol Pop Josh Brown Mention was the exact headline. What was the stock? IBKR. IBKR, Vol Pop, Josh Brown Mention. And then Straza says, I love Josh. He pumps my favorite stock. I don't pump, oh my God. No, I mean, you're just talking on TV,

but he's happy when he owns the stocks that you're talking about on TV, is all. I just think that's funny. Like, doesn't everybody else think that's funny? I do, but tell him not to use that terminology. No, no, no. Say Josh Brown manipulates stocks. No, no, no.

He didn't say pump. No, pump, but that's how the kids talk these days. Moon, pump. I know, but I don't talk that way. Yolo, GMGM, you know, like, I mean, that's just how the kids talk. He doesn't mean you're actually pumping. Very confident in my description. It's just a nomenclature.

Oh, what do we think? What? You don't have your do we think what you did it? I like Michael doing it wait. I'm locked out of the stock why hold on I'm locked out of the stock. I need somebody to do it. I have a fucking extra laptop Can you can somebody just invite me to my personal gmail and don't say it out loud? I feel like we're off to a horrible start. No, other way. Are you sure? No. It says the left or right hand side.

You know what? We should reset. You should isolate what I just said. Fake news. That's a good drop. It's true. When the Dow is down 800 points, I feel like we're off to a horrible start. To Hyundai.

Wasn't I one Hyundai? Probably. You probably were one Hyundai. You've been on like 18 times. That's for real. That's for real. We're in the full canoe. This is dead.

What about it? I know it's dead. F**king charger. Riven in the charger? Yeah. Oh my god. How many factor authorizations? Dude.

Not enough. Does it ever end? Take my computer. Very confident in my assertion. Does it ever literally end? You know, if this was on the blockchain, this would solve these problems You understand nobody cares. I got it. I got it move this I got it. I like the word was I got it

Yes, I'm in you guys I'm in yeah No, it's 23% hey, why isn't this working? I'm gonna power throw I was with the clap button All right. Hold on, I'm gonna clap, I'm gonna clap. Oh, my first time. Good job. Good job. Yeah, I can get used to this.

You got it today, okay? Out of the way. All right. Is this like your first time with the bombs? Yeah. Let's go. You're allowing this? What are we waiting for?

All right. It's almost Labor Day. You're allowing this? What are we waiting for? Alright. It's almost Labor Day. Where's your computer? What? Where's your computer? I'm going on a Broadway show tonight. I can't have a laptop.

You can't check bags at off-Broadway shows. He would know. He's 100. Broadway check. Whoa, whoa, whoa. Stop the clock. Here's a word from our sponsor. Today's show is brought to you by Newburger Berman.

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at www.nb.com.nbsd. NBSD from Neuberger new burger burman efficient income managed risk This episode is sponsored by apex fintech solutions the time to compete for next-gen clients is now Transforming your business for the future might seem like something you could push off But every year you wait the further behind you fall eventually you won't catch up Augmented advice from apex gives you the power to be what the next generation wants on your terms. It's a modern on-ramp to tailored advice using your brand, your personal touch, backed by Apex Innovation.

Learn more at apexfintechsolutions.com slash augmented advice. Welcome to The Compound and Friends. All opinions expressed by Josh Brown, Michael Batnick, and their castmates are solely their own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions. Clients of Ridholtz Wealth Management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast.

Ladies and gentlemen, episode 200. Do some shit over there. Mike, Mike is controlling the sound. All right, guys, oh my God, we've done this, we've now done this 200 times. What do we think about this? Woo! Woo!

Not bad, not bad, not bad. All right. Before we begin the show, I want to acknowledge the people who make this possible each week. The people who literally work on this all week long. I just sometimes get to drop into the seat and host the show, Michael too. We prep a lot lot but these are the people who really bring the show to

you ladies and gentlemen. Number one Duncan Hill and Duncan around. John Grayson. Daniel Para. Nicole Samoukova. Okay and behind the scenes Keith, Rob. by the way, Travis is in the house, our newest producer from San Diego. Look at the tan on this gentleman. Not bad. All right, and of course, Sean, Chart Kid, Matt, so many others who make the show possible. Sean, did you point to John Grayson? Look at John second.

Alright, guys, welcome to episode number 200 of The Compound and Friends. We are live in New York City, Bryant Park to be exact. We have a fan favorite guest, couldn't be anyone but him. Ladies and gentlemen, J.C. Peretz is the founder and chief technician of Trend Labs, a technical analysis focused research platform, trend labs drops a daily note called everybody's wrong. You're such a dick. It's so perfect that delivers charts and actionable ideas straight from JC. Uh, so subscribe to everybody's wrong, which I myself have done recently.

Um, can we just talk about what is Trend Labs and what your role is there? Because the people are dying to know. Yeah, no question. I mean, listen, you know, we built All-Star Charges. You were there. You know, people are like, well, why'd you start a blog? I think we helped. We did our part. Dude, are you kidding me? Everybody was like, JC, why don't you have a blog? I'm like, I don't know how to do that. Right? Like, Josh had a blog, Reformed broker, Pearlman, Josh,

Joe Fami, Greg Hoss, Barry Rinnos. Well, Josh and I were Barry fanboys first, right? And we would read Barry's blog every day and then eventually they met and the bromance and the firm and the whole thing, right? But for a while, Josh and I were just fanboys. So like, we learned how to blog through Barry and then Josh kind of like, you know, Josh would write the rules of this is how you blog and this is how you source. I did. I was a major asshole back then. No, but you like made the rules and if it wasn't for you, it would have just been even more of a shit show. Right. So like, think about it like that.

And then so, you know, All-Store Church was a blog. It turned into a hedge fund. It turned into a research platform. You know, we got acquired in, you know, four years ago. And, you know, that was great. And then so we got acquired four years ago and that was great. And then so we started Stock Market Media, which is really a platform to be able to help content producers, particularly in the financial industry, be able to monetize the work that they're doing, whether it be written work or video work. Because as someone who did that for so long and made every

mistake and learned the hard way how important it is to have the proper infrastructure, you guys that have a mistake and learned the hard way how important it is to have the proper infrastructure. You guys that have a very successful RRA know just how important it is to have the infrastructure to be able to scale. And you made a- You can't, to your point, you can't keep putting out research if you're not being paid.

You could do that for six months on pure adrenaline, but at a certain point, there has to be a business model. Otherwise, why are you giving people information? So that's really important. So what's TrendLab? So then, you know, TrendLabs is really just selfish to me. So while All-Star Charts was a research platform, still is, right? A very successful that caters to hedge funds, financial advisors, individual investors, and writes research to help all these different investors with what they're doing. TrendLabs is specifically what I'm doing. What I'm doing with my portfolio, what matters to me,

you know, the newsletter, Everybody's Wrong, is very, I mean, it's very, I mean, come on. Very competent in my assertion. Listen, at the end of the day, we're very specifically looking for where everybody's wrong, because at all times, there's some extreme out there where positioning is completely on one side and has to go to the other. And dealing with hedge funds and financial institutions as long as I have, I know for a fact that that's how they have to invest. Because they need the liquidity to get in, they need the liquidity to get out. So that's just how I think, because that's how markets work. So we're looking for those extremes.

You know, a lot of technicians are trend followers, and you are too to some extent, but you also have this contrarian streak to you, which is why I love the title of your letter, Everybody's Wrong. It's perfect for you, by the way. If I said to Michael, guess who the person we know is that just started a daily drop called Everybody's Wrong, he would know exactly who it is. Two seconds. But.

Can I just give a shout out to Brett Schaffer out there that was his idea. Okay. So I don't want to take all the credit. It is a great name but shout out Brett Schaffer. It's pretty great. Yeah. But you have this contrarian streak to you where you are looking to lean the other way when everyone's at a particular extreme and most recently I think the last time you were on we were laughing about the dollar and on and obviously this year is one of the worst years, I think the worst year for the dollar, maybe ever, 50 years? Okay.

So, I like that about you and I think that's where you stand out versus other technicians. So we appreciate that. Hit the thing. See? We're like, uh... I read his mind. All right. We're going to start with something that's not technical, but I think important to the

market. It may not be important to anyone's particular trading strategy, but it's something that's getting more attention. The Wall Street Journal pulled out all the stops today. They had three cover story articles on why Trump shouldn't fire Powell. One of them was, oh, what's the big deal? He's building this hundred million dollar building for the Fed. Who cares? Another one was, this is going to be really bad for the bond market.

And then another one was like an op-ed from just... When you read the Wall Street Journal's editorial board, when you read what they're saying, you should know that that is in practice the mouthpiece of the business wing of the Republican Party. So not the gun wing, not the anti-abortion wing, not the neocon wing. That's specifically Chamber of Commerce types and all the conservative think tanks in Manhattan. That's who's speaking when they write that way. And whether it's related or not, put this picture up. Do we have this?

Don't fire Jerome Powell, Mr. President. The only way they could have been more on the nose is if they had also written like please, right? Okay. When you see this kind of a full court press from the journal, it tells you that people are really nervous that this might actually happen. And I want to put up this chart of the 30 year treasury yield, which is back at 5%. We saw it break about 5% in early May, probably at the height of the tariff induced inflation concerns.

And now we're right back here. And I can envision a scenario where this breaks loose and a lot of the gains in the stock market from the summer go away really quickly. I'd love to hear what your take is because I know while you don't care that much about the Fed, you do care about intermarket analysis. Can you throw up the last chart actually?

Oh, that's great actually. And then we'll just finish the show. And then we can go straight to happy hour. No, because Josh is like, can we talk about the Fed? Like, don't you have enough like nerdy economist friends that you need when I come? Yeah, I don't want to do like the gossipy side. I want to do the market impact side. Because don't, Brian, you have friends that are economists.

Like, you're like, you have those friends. Yeah, dude. I'm friends with everybody. That's why I'm downtown Josh Brown. Just saying. What do you got? You would have nerdy economist friends. Yeah. Broadway friends, economist friends. So well-rounded.

You know that he was an art history major in college, Josh Brown. Fun fact. Didn't go well. Alright. What do you got? So, for me it's less about the direction of interest rates and less about the exact direction. It's more about the rate of acceleration. OK, this is weighty. So this hasn't done shit for a few years.

And how has the stock market done over the last few years? Just fine, really well. Pretty damn well. So it's more about the rate of change and less about the direction. If interest rates are going up, but they're going up in like a nice orderly manner, you know, is it going to have a major impact on the equities market? Are you going to have these major volatility swings? You know, that's not what I would bet on. But if you're getting major moves, like you saw the worst

quarter in the history of the dollar in Q1, well, the stock market had a heart attack and volatility spiked and well, that's what happens when the currency market and the fixed income market are having big moves very very quickly. So it's less about the direction and more about the rate of change. But what about the level? Forget the direction. Put back the 30 years. This thing's a mess. Is there a fix for the bond market? Yeah there is, right? Yeah, the move index.

Is it doing anything? It's about to break down. Ah, exactly. So the move index is about to break down. So rate of change I get because when things look like they're moving fast, it seems chaotic and that makes people nervous, especially in US Treasuries. But it's not so much that it seems chaotic, it's that the bond market is so big that if there's chaos in such a massive market that is a hundred and thirty trillion dollar bond market or a quad trillion dollar forex market, it's gonna make its way into the stock market.

It is chaos. It doesn't look like chaos. It is chaos. Thank you. Yes. But what about the level? Psychological levels. I don't think that five percent means anything per se other than it means something to people. Dude, it means nothing. Josh, how many people do you know look at the 30-year yield? Not including your nerdy economist friends. Oh, here's my question then. Is a spike in the 30-year yield more concerning than a spike at the 30-year yield. Not including your nerdy economist friends. Oh, here's my question then. Is a spike in the 30-year yield more concerning than a spike in the 10-year yield? No. It's more of a curve thing, but I mean the 10-year is the benchmark.

But yeah, it's part of it. Wait, hang on. Everything is based off the 10-year. The 30-year is not breaking out. The stock market is hitting an all-time high literally right this second. This is a news story. It's not a market story because if it was the the bottom market would be doing what it's doing It's doing it would it be a market story at 6%

I don't know no bet you it was I agree, but tell me what the markets doing right now The market doesn't care because they're he's not firing power Why don't we actually just turn to the market right so if you want to throw up the inflation adjusted security They should have to have to fire Powell Powell's gone everyone knows Everyone knows he's not firing Powell, which is why the markets doesn't care. It Powell. Powell's gone in 10 months. Everyone knows he's not firing Powell, which is why the market doesn't care. It's a new story now. I don't know who's firing who to be fired.

So if you throw up the... So this is the inflation protected treasuries versus nominal yielding treasuries. So instead of like us pretending we know anything about inflation, we could just see what the bond market's thinking. Like where are they actually pricing? Yeah, I trust the bond market more Like where are they actually pricing it? Yeah, I trust the bond market more than the three of us combined, right? You got that, Jon?

I'm looking, man. He got 61 charts to tear. It should be right above, it should be between the crude oil, it should be a crude oil right above the dollar. So the point is, come on, Jon. I'm getting there. Here we go. No, so the point is, is that the bond market is now starting to like, I mean, it is inching higher, right?

And when you see what happened in the gold market, making new all-time highs, gold tends to be a leading indicator in commodity super cycles. Is this your chart? This is the chart, right? Copper should be next oil after that. So we'll get back to that in a second. So here we're looking at the inflation protected treasuries, the tips, right? Just the tip versus the nominal yielding treasuries. This is the seven to ten year. So where, you know, these are equivalent durations, right? IEF, ETF. A lot of advisors use this for their ladders and their fixed income allocations. It's the ten year, but the bond side, right? Yep. And now we're making new multi-month highs in the ratio between the inflation protected treasuries versus the nominal yielding treasuries. In other words, what the bond side, right? And now we're making new multi-month highs in the ratio between the inflation protected treasuries versus the nominal yielding

treasuries. In other words, what the bond market is pricing in for inflation, and it's not breaking this massive top that, you know, if you read like two chapters of a technical analysis book, you'd be like, oh shit, head and shoulders top, everything's gonna crash. Actually, it's usually a continuation pattern, and this is turning into one. So, if you go to the oil chart, so when I think inflation, correct me if I'm wrong, the first thing I'm thinking is oil. You had a pretty nasty failed breakdown in the oil futures and quickly recovered, you know, now you pulled back. I don't know what's gonna happen in the future, but if you're

interested in what inflation looks like, I would look at the bond market, and then I would look at this chart right here. Dirk, open your computer and tell John what charts you're pulling off. You have a billion charts. So every one of these is telling the same story, which is that inflation was becoming more and more tame, and now that's reversed. Some of it is tariff. I mean, that's what they all seem to be saying. It's not saying like we're going back to 9% inflation, but like...

What is the stock market saying about inflation? We're not going to 2. It's not the direction right now. I'm more interested in what the bond market is. It's not that inflation is here and there's this epic inflation, but if you show that inflation chart for the bond market, like it's worth monitoring. And crude oil with that setup is worth monitoring and think about it like this in these commodity super cycles that historically don't just last a few years they last for a decade or two so if you're if

you're saying that commodity bull market is over then you're betting that this is the shortest one of all time so but back to the original premise of the question the 30 year is not as important as the 10 year in terms of the way people price assets and allocate. What a breakdown in the 30 year bond and a rally in the rate could be indicative of is people worrying about the long term health of the economy and the debt situation. That's why people pay attention to that. I don't think they would use it as a stock market signal.

It's more a signal of like maybe longer term risks. All right, there's enough talk about this because it's not breaking out. It's at the higher end of the range. I'm afraid someone will talk about it. My thoughts are more on the market implications of such a thing. And this is how I look at it,

by thinking about gold making all time highs. Where's copper? Copper ultimately broke out. Biggest week, biggest day ever in copper last year. And you can start at the top, John, go back to the top. Copper futures. Copper future. Biggest day in the history of the copper futures.

This was last week, so. Why did that happen? I know you don't care about the news, but what was the news? There was news, there was news. There was tariffs. The buyers were more aggressively buying than the sellers were selling than in any other day in the history of the copper market.

But the point is, gold first, copper second. What's number three? The yen? Oil. It's oil. So we'll see. I got to see it. But that's what would be logical. All right. Here's how we're going to do the show. I have some horrible charts, but there are points that I want to ask you about. Then we're going to run through yours like a marathon. And then I have some more bullshit on the other end of that. Okay. I just want to say for all the things that have happened this year, the one thing that's like remains constant after these storms pass is that large caps are going to large cap. Like it's on it's

almost unbelievable to me and I want to show you. Iman, I mean we're buying small cash bro. I want to show you the Footsie 100. This is Great Britain's stock market, okay? These are English stocks. Just broke 9,000 for the first time ever. Can I just stop for a second and just tell you how happy I am that your first chart is like a... Footsie 100? ...Chart of the United Kingdom. The Footsie 100?

Like it brings a tear to my eye. Like you know how happy that makes me, Tosh? Like, you know. Assuming you're not being facetious, why? Well, we've known each other for a long time and this is the first time that you've ever done that, actually. Okay, it started with England.

Okay. Every conversation that you and I have had for 20 years, when have you ever said, hey, JC, that British stock market, huh? Not once. All right, here's my next All right. What's all right. Here's my next horrible chart. Here's ifa.

This is the ETF for, um, for, uh, develop stocks, ex us effectively. Uh, but it's like, it's a Europe far, uh, far East in Asia. Like a lot of Europe and Japan, little Ozzy basically, um. This is at a new record high or just breaking out, I mean just breaking out right now and we could have like really long conversations about dollar hedged or but like the the message here I just find to be really interesting. Well think about what's in there. The German DAX is at all-time highs, Euro stocks is at all-time highs, the Japanese Nikkei, finally since 1989. Remember I told you it was gonna be resistance.

A year and a half of resistance, CAC a little underperforming a little bit. You see what I have in my bottom pane? You ever, this is rate of change and I did a period of six months. Just to kind of show, this is at the upper end of the range of rate of change for this particular ETF since inception like it's very rare that this thing has had as good gains as it's had in the last

six months. Just going back through the history of the thing like for this is I don't know 25 years worth of data. It's very rare that you get these markets rallying to the extent that they are. I thought that'd be interesting to look at. Well think about what's in there. So you don't have a lot of tech. You've got a lot more financials, industrials,

these European, Germany, France, ton of industrials, right? So it's a very different composition. Consumer discretionary. You're getting more of a New York Stock Exchange composite kind of look at the market. Yeah, I like that they're rallying and it's coinciding with the S&P new high. We've seen that before.

Last time I can really remember it being this pronounced was 2017. You remember global synchronized growth was like the theme of the year that year. And every market around the world was ripping. That was a great year for investors. 2017 was the least volatile year in the history of the stock market. This was immediately after Trump was elected. The fix was averaging like 8 or 9 or something. It was crazy.

It was like how many days in a row without a 1% move. The Max John that was like 3%. It's a joke. I want to get your take on the market and I want to start with this. Like just overall before we rip into a billion charts from which there's no escaping your voice. I want to get your take on the market and start with this. No escaping John. I'm giving you flowers as a kid say you have a chart at trend

labs that shows asset managers and hedge funds net positioning. Did you bring that with us? I did. Okay. So Dietrich tweeted nice chart from JC that shows hedge funds and asset managers have missed this rally. There are pockets of optimism, obviously we're at all time highs. Uh, but this likely says this rally has plenty left in the tank.

What do you say? Well, I mean, like we joke here, like, oh, everybody's wrong, but that's specifically what we're looking for, where everybody's wrong. And it's really the lack of positioning in the market overall. Like short-term, can we get corrections in the market? Yeah, but bigger picture, there's like an underlying put in the market because we're coming off such extreme pessimistic levels. Depending on how you calculate it, this spring we were at levels that we maybe have never seen more pessimistic than at the COVID lows, at the

great financial crisis lows, the dot com bubble lows. And maybe that's a little extreme, maybe that wasn't the case. But the fact that it's even in the conversation is enough. Like people were angry. The Economist magazine, one after the other, angry or angry, like, you know, the bald eagle, like with bandages and like crutches coming out of a hospital. Like if you're not buying. In fairness though, but in fairness,

the only reason we didn't end up down 30%, we were down 20% is because they changed their minds. And maybe it's because they looked at the market and they said, this is going to get a whole lot worse. This is not worth doing. Well, I don't know who they is, but what I can tell you is... The White House said, forget everything we just told you. We're now going to negotiate. Oh, because I'm going to start trusting what's coming out of the White House now. I don't trust in either direction. I'm just, I'm pointing out, there's a world in which that pessimism is like well founded

if that tariff shit would have continued. Well, to be fair, there are plenty of people that still live in that world, fortunately for the rest of us, and they just are waiting for the world to come to an end and the exact opposite is happening, so we're thankful for those sorts of individuals. Fair. And that's what the newsletter is all about, everybody's wrong, is not only identifying those who are wrong, but extracting dollars for our own selfish endeavors from those folks.

Are you gonna call people out, like specifically who is wrong? You're not gonna do that. Yeah, no, sell-side analysts, economists. You're not gonna use names. I mean, if they write the article on the cover of The Economist, somebody could go look at it.

I'm not making, I'm not calling anybody out. It's more of just a consensus. I was sitting right here at this chair at the beginning of 2023 when every sell side analyst on Wall Street said the market was going to go down. It was Wall Street sell side consensus. Was that in 23, the stock market? Strategist. The stock market was going to fall. Not only did it not f***ing fall, the S&P 500 was up 20% two years in a row and the NASDAQ doubled. Yeah. So what about today? And this is when the South Side community is telling you that the stock market's gonna fall for the first time this millennium by the way. So let me ask the obvious question then. The consensus is now bullish into year end. All the analysts revamped their 6,900, $7,000 targets for the S&P. Are they all wrong today?

Well, I'll tell you this. Listen, if I worked for a bank, I'd definitely pick $6,900 as the target. Just because I'm a child like that. Yeah. Michael would too. I mean, how could you not? $6,900, $6,900. $6,900, $6,900 would be his year end target. But every year. And then so... And then so, the fact that they're bullish, that's not information.

And they're not all bullish. It's when they're bearish. So okay, so that's interesting. It's a better contrarian signal when Wall Street is bearish just because of how rare that is. Yeah, I agree. I would agree with that. It's actually common for them to all be 8% above where the market is.

Look at financial advisors, right? We look at financial advisors. We look at newsletter writers. We look at individual investors. They're bullish in bull markets. Obviously. You need bulls to buy stocks to have a bull market. It's when they're extreme pessimism that we want to flip the book. So right now we're at Nvidia 4 trillion. Josh finally gave people permission to trim a little bit. How quickly we forget, remember what the drawdown was all the way back in March, in April? We want to flip the book. So right now we're at Nvidia 4 trillion. Josh finally gave people permission to trim a little bit. How quickly we forget. Remember what the drawdown was all the way back in March in April?

It was a 37% drawdown. 37%. The biggest stock in the world. 2008. Was 37% all time highs. Hold on. Hold on. Settle down.

Zoom out and do the math on what Nvidia did going in to that 38% correction. No, we're making the point that people think that they're like we're owed pain in the market. What do you call a 35% drawdown in the biggest stock in the market? In three weeks. That's pain. Haven't we had like multiple bull markets, bear markets in the last like half decade or something? We had three. Now you want another one?

We had one two months ago and we have one in 2022. And 2020. We had three in five years. We're good All right chart chart us up. Let's go. Let's go. Let's roll John. This is where you really get a chance Let's go bowling Dude, I haven't been bowling in a minute Okay question Short interest data who publishes it? Nasdaq. Oh, I think the exchanges wrong wrong. Okay. When does it get published all-star charts, am I right? Nope. When does it get published? That's a good question.

Wait, let's see if, does Rob, who publishes short interest data? So Rob Pasarellak, Bloomberg, like I mean just Wall Street legend. Now you've got six billion in asset managers here. No idea when the Finner, Finner, Finner publishes it. Oh, interesting. How often? Quarterly? Every two weeks.

Where does it get published? Everybody's like, oh, I'm going to get a short interest data. I'm going to get a short interest data. I'm going to get a short interest data. I'm going to get a short interest data. I'm going to get a short interest data. I'm going to get a short interest data. I'm going to get a short interest data.

I'm going to get a short interest data. I'm going to get a short interest data. I'm going to get a short interest data. I'm going to get a short interest data. I'm going to get a short interest data. I'm going to get a short interest data. I'm going to get a short Finner, Finner publishes it. Oh, interesting. How often? Quarterly? Every two weeks. Um, where does it get published? See, everybody is wrong. Where does it get published?

Twitter? I rest my case. Oh, no, the beige book. My argument, what color is that book? So my- What color is the beige book for a bonus point? Seriously. Listen, my, my argument here in that everybody's wrong is that you two are some of the two of the smartest market participants, Wall Street guys, financial advisors, whatever, all of the thing. Fine. But you guys know your shit is my point.

And even the guys that don't that know their shit don't know where to get this data when it comes out, where to find it. And then, by the way, if you have all those answers were yes, this is what you get. What is this? Exactly. How do you, how do you, so how do you extract the data? Well you have to, you have to be able to see. You need machines, you need humans, you need, I mean it's like a thing. So in the defense of everyone that doesn't know this information, this gets distributed via Dow Jones, it's everywhere. It's in Barron's, MarketWatch, CNBC.com. Wait, what is literally the point of this?

And by the way, it's never not wrong, by the way. I thought we were doing charts here. Hold on, let's go. Keep going. Hold on, ready? This one you might know. Commitment to Traders. This is a government report.

Oh, same. So this, I see. When does it come out? This is more frequent than monthly. Is this the 69th Tuesday of the year? Always on the Friday after the 69th Tuesday. It's the second Tuesday. It's the Tuesday after the second Monday.

Is it only month? Every Friday. Oh, I thought it was. Every Friday. But if you go to the CFTC and you look for this, there's going to be 297 links. How do you even know which one to click on? And when you do, this is what you get. Thank God I don't trade commodities. Good luck.

Good luck. So anyways, we take this information. The reason for this is because we take this information and here's what we do. Go ahead. You machine learn it? Dude, AI is sick, bro. All right. I don't want to go down that rabbit hole, but there's a lot going on there. So anyway, so then we take this data. It comes out every two weeks. This is the short interest data. And we're looking at the increases and decreases in the short interest and we're adjusting By the size of the company and you buy them, right? No, we don't want to be not always no We don't want to be contrarian for the sake of being contrarian

They go on your screen off watch these listen if they're increasing their short positions as the stock is making new highs I want to know and what do you want to do with that? Well then we look at the charts right and we apply our principles because it's a great starting point. Can we go back one? Yeah go ahead. So like let's give people that are listening an example. So you're saying like GameStop, Category, Speciality Retail, Mark Kep 10 billion, change in short interest, this is month over month or two weeks? This is report over report. So it's a two week change. So it's being sorted by the right, I can't read that. What is that? 67%. So it's sorted by the right. So this is an

increase in the short position as a percentage of overall market cap, right? Because if you're just looking at the biggest changes in short positions, you're gonna get the biggest companies. So you got to adjust by market cap, right? Those are things you learn the hard way. So we're just looking at the biggest changes in short positions, you're going to get the biggest companies. So you got to adjust by market cap, right? Those are things you learn the hard way. So we're looking at basically the biggest changes report over report. Everyone shorting GameStop again, would be my takeaway from this. And Big Bear.

Now remember this data is delayed because I don't know why they're not using the blockchain and we have to wait like 10 days for them to report it. Like I don't know why we have to pretend we're cavemen. Like we have the data that just report the damn thing. But anyway, so keep in mind it's a little bit delayed, but still really good information. So here you can keep going. Whoa, hold on. iREN. iREN just had a massive short squeeze. Holy shit. Yes. I mean we're going to get into that, but it's all of those types of stocks. So then we sort by 10-day rate of change, right? So now we're looking at the names that have super high short interest, super vulnerable for a squeeze, and now we're sorting by the ones that are literally getting squeezed.

Rate of change makes... the rate of change tells you the squeeze is on. Bro, pro-kidney? That went from a dollar to seven dollars in like four days. Oh my god. How do you know that? Because I just pulled it up. Oh, okay. I was gonna say, you follow pro-kidney? But you see the thought process? I'm mostly not just going to dive into individual securities, but to like walk through the thought process of taking these reports.

So Open Door seems to be the short squeeze everyone's talking about this week. Shot to Eric Jackson. What a run. Unbelievable. Yeah. Okay. All right. So that's enough. Also, I want to highlight RCAT. So this is the type of market environment. I'm gonna put my fundamental hat on. Red cat holding. Is that the guy from Barstool?

No, no, listen. This is the type of market environment where if the name of the company has an animal in it. You buy it. Double short. Like a pony AI or a data dog. Yeah. Like if there's an animal in the name. Like this is the market where it's going up you

got to double the position if there's an animal so I want to highlight red you should buy my publicly traded winery it's called great babe it's going way I go right there dude you're right so you you you you energy fuels look it just sounds like a food company look at this I know oh shit left from 6 to 9. Look at this. Holy shit. It went from 6 to 9. Nice. In like literally two weeks. Hold on. Let's get into the charts. I just wanted to walk you through the mentality.

You know, thinking logically through about exposing those who have overstayed their welcome. The short sellers that are getting greedy when now the risk versus reward profile is skewed in the other direction. Why are these people subscribing to your report? Like the people that are short selling. I don't know. I'm good. I don't care. Go, go, keep going. So now we're sorting by days to cover. So go back to the last one. So this is important because now we're taking the average daily volume

and then we're taking all of the shares that are short and we're calculating how many days at the average daily volume will it take all the shorts to cover. Dude, you should rename this. You call it the divergence equity squeeze. You should call this the divergence now you can't leave. Ooh, now you can't leave. That's the second Bronx tail reference like today. It's a lot of Bronx tail references today.

All right, let's get into some charts, but I want to show you sort of the thought process behind these things, looking at the short interest and what we do with these reports. Not to mention I want polling my smartest friends to see how many know when this stuff comes out and the answer is still a squadouche. And there's nothing against you guys. Nobody knows. No idea. No idea. Yeah. Okay. S&P 500 new all-time highs. Not things we see in downtracks. Right? Obvs. Right. Right. Okay. Keep going. So this is the chart that Michael was talking about where we're taking that data that's coming from the commitment of traders report

and we're taking what the asset managers, these are the large speculators, what they're doing. You know what they're not doing? They're not participating in this historic rally is what they're not doing because they're worried about like nonsense, like tariffs or who's the president is or global debt or whatever.

And like your own power will be fired. Wars. Oh, there's a war in the Middle East. Big shocker. I can't believe it. There's a war. So yeah, who would have thought? I can't believe it.

Oh, shit. The Strait of Hormuz. There's issues there. I can't believe it. I said it. Anytime you hear the word Strait of Hormuz on financial's issues there. I can't believe it. I said it anytime you hear the word straight of Hormuz on financial television just find something and buy it. Immediately. Dude I love how like all the AI experts and like chip logistics experts are now like straight of Hormuz experts. Yes overnight. It's we're so fortunate. We're so

fortunate. How lucky are we to be able to follow such geniuses? Okay, so nevertheless, the hedge funds, the asset managers, they're not in, which is fantastic. That's the type of thing you tend to see in the early stages of strong uptrends, is people not participating, people not buying into it. Has this ever resolved to the downside where the asset managers and hedge funds being lightly allocated to stocks end up being vindicated? Or is this always, is the resolution almost always, oh shit, we're missing the bull market and they buy? Let me tell you something, Josh.

There's a really smart gentleman by the name of Barry Ritholtz. And he just came out with a great book about how not to invest. And one of the things he says answers your question, as a matter of fact, that you should not be betting with those guys, right? You should not be doing that. Great book. Can we give a round of applause that you should not be betting with those guys right you should not be doing that great book can we give a round of applause to Barry Riddle's JC gets a couple of shoutouts he misquoted me it's a 9,000 page book so I'm not surprised is at least the shit one shout out to

you in there all right next let's continue so no I'm not betting that they're gonna be right is the answer. And neither's Barry apparently. So there's two, there's a big question and I want to hear your thoughts. What's the most important sector in the market? Technology. You? For today or in general? In life.

Financials. No, it's always Tuck. No, it's not. It's, oh, okay, fine. Somebody wanted to dap me up. I knew you were gonna say financials. But they are important. They're, how about this?

They're confirming. Right now, nobody gives a shit. It's great that they are important. How about this? They're confirming. Right now, nobody gives a shit. It's great that they're up. We're happy.

We celebrate financials every day. The only sector that matters right now, 38% of the market is technology. Can I take you back to one St. Patrick's Day, 2008, you and me drinking coffee on the corner of Vanderbilt and 46th Street, watching giant Irish dudes in bagpipes, playing the bagpipes, people walking out of Bear Stearns, holding boxes, CNBC, Fox trucks with satellite dishes everywhere, drunk people everywhere, because it's across the street from Grand Central, and they were coming in to booze.

They had Erin Burnett set up with a folding table, like it was a block party, and they, she did the show directly from in front of Bear Starrings. Rest in Peace Naples 45. Yeah. Oh those are the days. Remember the free pizza there? Yeah. Dude free pizza every day. How many times were me and Josh doing? Oh we could do Vanderbilt. We could do Vanderbilt reminiscences. Let's keep going. I mean there were like $12 beers so we were paying for it indirectly. But why do you think that we don't... Same importance as before. First of all, we do not have bull markets without financials and we're thinking as just ignorant Americans.

Around the world they don't have huge tech companies. They got big banks that handle all the business, right? So in other countries the banks are even more important than the United States. And I would argue that in the United States, financials are the most important sector. Now playing devil's advocate, technology is the biggest sector. When you look at every bull... Well, define important. Hold that.

Right. That's my point. So when you think back over the last 100 years, you study every bull market, you'll notice that technology is a leader in pretty much all of them, right? So you can argue that technology is the most important sector. Well, it don't matter because they're both making new alt-time clients. You need confirmation or you want it. I think it's great that financials...

I think you... First of all, you can't have a bull market without financials participating because somebody has to finance it all and all the trading is happening within the financial company. So of course, it's almost a tautology. Somebody says, what's the most important? I read that as what's the most relevant. And of course it's technology. It's all of the earnings growth.

The sector is bigger than all the other sectors combined. Yeah, this is a dumb question. It's obvious technology. Let's keep going. I don't think it's obvious. I'm with you. You guys are fist bumping. I was answering how you knew.

I knew you wanted to be financial. I think it's financial, but it doesn't matter because they're both making new highs. All right, next. Well, industrials are the most economically sensitive sector Technology as long as you guys could both admit that you're wrong and I'm right. I Listen who writes the blog everybody's wrong. All right. I'm gonna make that decision around here Communications also very important technology became such a big sector

That these guys had to take stocks out of the sector and invent new ones to put them in. Why did they do that? Because it was too big. They had to. It was too big. Oh. You can't have, imagine if you had meta and alphabet in the same sector as Microsoft, Apple, and video. It'd be 80% of the stock market at this point.

That's called mooning. Yeah. So communications, all time high. It's a lot of Netflix, a lot of Facebook, a lot of Google, right? And then the next one, you know, the truth is when you go back and you do the math, which some of us like to do, and you take all the sectors and find the one with the highest correlation with the S&P 500, it ain't tech, it ain't financials, it's actually industrial.

I believe that. Because if you go back far enough, these were the tech stocks of the first 50 years of the 20th century. Well, you know what else? Well, the S&P 500 didn't come to the back half of the 50 years, but you're not wrong. You're right. But that continued. But it's bigger than that, I think. It's that it's very diversified. Think about what's in the industrial.

Railroads, defense. Waste management. Yeah. Right. I mean, what's going on? JC, let me ask you a question. Why do you think a lot of people- Construction. Machinery engineering. Alright, stop, let me ask you a question. Why do you think a lot of people- Construction.

Why do you think a lot of people- Machinery, engineering. Alright, shut up, let me ask you a question. Why do you think a lot of people get nervous when you have everything working? When you have industrials, financials, technology, the overall index. Because it feels too good.

Why, so why is it that we think that, oh, what's about to go wrong? You know, it's a very Catholic, it's like a very Catholic mentality that like we're getting too much heaven shortly. It's almost like too much sin. How much Catholic school did you go to? My mother's Catholic. I could talk very deep, but my mother's Irish Catholic.

It's a different kind of Catholic than you know. But like I'm telling you right now, there is this idea that people have where it's black, it's black, it's got to go red. It's heads, it's got to go red, it's heads, it's got to go tails. But do you think that's a Catholic thing? I think there's a Catholic thing about sin and pleasure. Well I'm very Jewish and I'm asking a Cuban, do you, why do you think this happens?

Well no no no, the difference, so I'm half and half. The Jews think nothing should ever go right. The Catholics at least allow for the possibility that things could go well. Yeah but we're special. But not too well. Yeah but you know what, it's different because I was trained by the Jesuits and the Jesuits get down. The Jesuits party. So it's a different type of Catholic, you know, it's a different Catholic education.

But I'm saying there is like in the back of people's minds the way we're wired. It's like, oh no, this is too good. No, I think it's humans. It's not Jews. It's not Catholics or Jesuits. It doesn't matter. It's the humans. Part of the reason why we call the newsletter Everybody's Wrong is because we know for a fact that asset prices trend.

We know. We have the data. We have the math. Everybody has it. We know it's a fact. It is a pillar of the market. There's a lot of things about the market that we don't know, mostly about the future, but we do know that asset prices trend. Yeah, I agree with that. Here's the other thing that we know. We know that volatility mean reverts. Yes, that's right. From high volatility comes down, from low volatility goes up. That we also know.

But here is how the humans act. The humans are always trying to mean revert on the asset prices and they're trying to trend follow on the volatility. When volatility is high, they think it's going to be high forever. When volatility is low, they think it's going to be low forever. Stock market makes new highs, they want to sell it. Stock market makes new lows, how much lower can it go?

A hell of a lot of lower. That's a great point. Clip that for TikTok. I couldn't agree more. I just, I feel like people, people's feelings when they're making a ton of money, some people, there's almost like a guilt and a shame like, this is too good, it's got to go bad. And people feel, not just about the stock market,

anything that's too good, It's almost like oh, man I'm gonna have to pay for this like somehow and that's why people forget That asset markets trend and bull markets go on way longer than you think possible Because they think they don't deserve it and that's the there's a very like a it's a very Catholic thing to that kind of feeling. And I know it because I see it in my real life with real people. Next chart. In things that have nothing to do with the stock market.

So, that's my comment. Alright, what are we gonna do? I'll finish with this. Catholic, Jewish, it doesn't matter. At the end of the day, it's humans. And what we know for a fact as well is that humans are gonna make poor choices and act irrationally when their stress levels are elevated At all times.

Particularly when stress levels are elevated in this day and age that happens when there's money involved and politics. But Jesse- When you combine both, especially in this, there's a lot of- Yes, toxic. But there's a lot of opportunity there. But people think it's irrational to buy new highs. It's the opposite. I don't know what's irrational about the fact that we know that asset prices trend and we know that buying new highs is historically a great strategy.

Once again, this is the gambler's fallacy. People think what goes up must come down. And in a lot of things in this world, that is how it works. Just not in this thing. Good. Yeah. So these are the returns since the election going into the end of, near the first half. So these are just the first half returns plus the back end of the year after the election. What is AFK? What's AFK? Africa. Oh. They're buying African stocks. Is that evidence of risk aversion?

That's not a bear market. I've never seen that ticker before. That's the ETF for Africa? Yeah. Probably very heavy Nigeria and South Africa. I'm guessing. Yeah that's right. Yeah a little Egypt in there. Very worldly observation. Oddly enough they delisted the Egypt ETF to my unsatisfactory. We talk about this every time you're here. Let's go. Next story. Get over Egypt. So needless to say tremendous returns since the election. This is the Trump squeeze 2.0. When 2016 I lived in California people were jumping out of buildings when he became the president of the United States everyone's selling their stocks around me I'm like you guys are when he became the president of the United States. Everyone's selling their stocks around me.

I'm like, you guys are crazy. 2017 was one of the greatest years in the history of the market, one of the least volatile years in the history of the market. We've seen this story before. It's deja vu all over again, right? So I think the Trump squeeze still has legs, right? I still think... But people, the stock market ripped higher when Trump won this time. I know what happened in 2016 also. I think people knew Trump was going to win for a month before this election and they were buying stocks, they were buying crypto. I think people learned their lesson from that.

Here's the difference. Here's the difference. This the troughs in sentiment where sentiment was extreme was near the election in 2016. It didn't come to the spring this year. So the extremes and pessimism were a little bit delayed this go around but very similar. Well he didn't start talking about tariffs till late February. Maybe. This time around. So I think that was the thing that freaked people out. This is remarkable. What's not working this year on the equity side around the world? Short sellers are getting f**king crushed.

Well, obviously, but like any regions not keeping up or? Health care. I don't know. Is Latin America on here? New Zealand is underperforming, you know? That's one thing that stands out to me. Something to keep an eye on. Oh, okay. Let's go through this. Ready? All right. I wanted to talk about cryptocurrencies because how can we not?

You're looking at the total crypto market cap around the world at the highest levels ever So crypto has never ever ever in history been worth more than it is right here right now. The number is 3.8. Yeah Trill It's a lot of money. It's not it's an Nvidia It's a rounding error is really what it is every single cryptocurrency in the world can go to zero tomorrow and it will not matter to anyone who matters. Yeah, I guess that's right. Nobody systemically important has like a lot of leverage on crypto to the point where they would like be threatened. It's completely irrelevant. Very different than like real estate.

I would agree with that. It is an irrelevant asset, a rounding error at best. Part of the reason why I own so much. In the aggregate. Not to an individual. Yeah, no, to an individual they might have a big percentage, but when you talk about a quadrillion dollar forex market and hundreds of billions of dollars in bonds and 60 trillion in stocks, four trillion is nothing. Well, the other thing is on the way out out the four trillion doesn't vanish into thin air it becomes dollars or something else. So it's it's ripples in a pond. It doesn't matter but I think that that's part of the bull case to be honest. You're not saying that pejoratively like you're a bull that makes you more bullish. I mean it doesn't make me

bearish that it's so irrelevant you know like how much smaller could it get? I think that's really helpful for people to hear because if you don't think that way, you might be tempted to think like, this is as big as it could possibly get. Hang on, guys, hang on. Counterpoint, Nvidia is f***ing huge. Four trillion is not nothing. Nvidia is bigger than Apple and Tesla combined.

I saw that today. That's not nothing. He's comparing it to the 4X market, though. Why? Why would you do that? Well, cryptocurrency. You're talking about assets. Compared to the treasury market, it's tiny,

but it's f***ing four trillion dollars. Which is nothing. Dude, how treasury market it's tiny but it's $4 trillion. Which is nothing. Dude. How big should it be? 10. Okay. I hope it does. I'm bullish. Yeah, 10. 10 trillion. We don't have that one. Josh had 0% chance. Now it could have 10. Why not?

Yeah, 10. Okay. So right now it's at 3, 4. What's 10? So here's the big chart. Oh, your laptop's off. Here's the big chart. This is Bitcoin dominance crashing. That's bullish for crypto. I think it's bullish for stocks. I think it's bullish for crypto. I think it's bullish for Bitcoin. Cause it's risk on.

I think. Of course it is. I think altcoins season, like hot girl summer, like altcoin summer, right? Can I ask you a question? Is stable coins included in this? No, no, no, no. Okay, Solana is, ETH is. So a lot of people who, a lot of people are talking about the performance in those two.

No, no, no. Not Solana. ETH BTC just broke a sick downtrend. He's going nuts. No, ETH BTC is. No, he's absolutely right. Thank you. This is it. There it is. Thank you. You taught me well. This is the one. While everybody's freaking out and they're crying about the, you day, now every sudden it's a key reversal day expert in the Bitcoin markets, you get a reversal on Monday, a little follow through on Tuesday, but all along that time, Ethereum is just grinding higher. And this is something new. When we see something that we haven't seen in a long time, that stands out. Yeah, if you zoom out, massive downturn. When was the last time that you saw Ethereum?

Alfred, so let's do some math. Bitcoin is $2.3 trillion. Cryptos, let's call it $3.8 trillion, right? So Bitcoin is a little over 60% of the entire crypto markets. Ethereum is about $420 billion, $420 for those who partake. Then you've got Binance at like $100, Solana at like $90. Binance is the BNB token. Yup. And then Ripple like 200. Throw up the Ripple. Look at this chart by the way. Come on JB.

Yeah. Not for me. Really? Not for me. You think this is a scam? You think one of those? No. I just don't think anyone needs it. Oh, because now we're buying things people need? Well, no. From what I... Well, I like to understand like what it would be used for. I don't know what Ripple is.

I'm an idiot, I'm an idiot like that. I like to like have an understanding of like why it would have value before I buy something. I don't know anything about this, but what I do know is that there aren't any cryptos that look like this. I don't know anything about it either. I read five things, but like that, that's my bias. Like, oh, this is like a, it's a okay to have,

but nobody really needs it. Hold on, but you're like a chip maker expert now too? Like, you don't know anything about chips? I don't know anything about anything. Right? That's my point. So what's the difference? Pringle. See the big Pringle guy. I'm with you, bro. I don't know anything about chips or oil and gas drilling or... I understand. If it moves, trade it. Got it. What do I know about? I know about charts. I know about wine and baseball.

And food. After that, I'm pretty good at food. After that I got nothing. Yeah. Next. Nothing, right? Alright, and then the smartest money in the world, commercial hedgers, are the most net long Bitcoin ever. What does this mean? What's a commercial Bitcoin hedger? These are the people in the business. So you're looking at the miners, you're looking at people who are in companies that are transacting in Bitcoin that actually have to hedge their positions.

These are the corn farmers that are hedging their corn crops, right? The speculators are the dumb money. These are the asset managers, the fund managers, you know, hedge fund managers. These are the people we want to take the opposite up. So the small speculators, the large speculators, the money that is, that makes the worst decisions, particularly in extreme, is shorting Bitcoin at the highest rate ever. Why are they doing that? I have no idea. I asked myself the same question. I just told you why. The gambler's fallacy. What goes up must come down. That's the answer. There's no other...

There's no... They don't know anything. Could they be short, I mean, just as hedging to offset other long positions? No, the hedgers are the ones that do the hedging. And they are long. Not only are they not hedging, they're the ones buying. So, are you going to bet with the dumb money or are you going to bet with the smart money? I'm with you, bro. Let's go. All right. And then this is a trade that you hear a lot of people talking about that they want to short micro strategy and then buy Bitcoin, taking advantage of that arbitrage, right?

Because Jim Chanos, this is his trade that he has on right now. All right. Good luck. right now. All right good luck. So if you are betting that that arbitrage is gonna close out, then you are betting that the orange line is not going to do with the black line is doing. It is. I think it is too. But if you are... Sorry say that one more time. So if you are shorting micro... So let's for the audience that doesn't understand go to the next slide real quick and then we'll come back to this. So this is the strategy. It's such a strategy, they actually changed the name from MicroStrategy to just Strategy, and they own 71 billion dollars worth of Bitcoin. And they're being valued at 140 billion. 127. So you're getting a one Bitcoin for

two for two dollars worth of Bitcoin. You're basically right now if you buy this. You're paying close to a 2x multiple for the stock compared to their net asset value if such arbitrary things mean something to you. Well, the theory being he's going to do something with the Bitcoin or with the leverage or he's going to be able to accumulate Bitcoin faster than somebody else. Then he can dilute his shareholders. That's it. It's working.

It's working. Well, I'll tell you what, logically it makes sense. Like there's no reason for it to trade at 2X. Dude, he called a shot and he's doing it. No, fine. But I get the logic. But if you go to the charts themselves, if you're betting, if you're shorting... His answer is that the world is going to run out of Bitcoin, so it makes sense to leverage up and buy it at a faster rate than anyone else.

Yeah, fine. But people who believe in that buy the stock. Right. But my point is, if you are shorting the stock and buying Bitcoin to take advantage of the arbitrage... My point is, dude... You're betting that that orange line is not going to follow the black line. Well, right, because think about it, like if sailors wrong and demand for Bitcoin goes away, you'll lose money on both. Yeah. So I'm not even sure there's a spread to be captured there in that scenario. Gentlemen, what are you rooting for then? We're at minute 55. We've got into like

six charts. Alright, let's go. I want to rip through a few charts here and then we can talk about it. Alright, we're going to do this again. We haven't done this in 18 months. We did it in 18 months. How's the stock market done since then? Quite well.

Not bad, not bad. Strong to quite strong. So as hardcore Americans, like, you know, I don't know the AFK ETF because I live in Long Island, right? Well, how much should I have allocated to the AFK ETF? Well, clearly you're under exposed to the Africa mean reversion here. At the end of the day, there's a big world out there outside of Long Island, right? So let's go through it. Ready? Are you ready, John? I'm ready.

All right, let's go. Ready? This is the Global 100 ETF, all-time highs. German DAX, all-time highs. German DAX, I would say after the United States, I would put a Germany number two. All-time highs in Germany. Let's go, let's roll. Euro stocks 600, this is the S&P 1500 of Europe. This includes the small caps, mid caps, large caps, all-time highs, and then we can just keep rolling.

Euro stocks 50, this is the Dow of Europe. This is the top 50, pushing up against new all-time highs. This is European banks pushing up against new all-time highs. That was so good. I mean, you know, France, not the best, but not bad. The CAC pushing up against new all-time highs. And then things get better from there. JB, bring it out.

London is the first chart. Didn't see it coming. Didn't see it coming. Love you. London, FTSE 100, all-time highs. 350, this is the broader look at the UK. This is the 350 over in London. Also making new all-time highs. And then just keep going.

Oslo, new all-time highs. Stockholm 30 index, like France, not the best, but still above the prior cycle highs. Looks great. And then we could just roll through all of these. Poland continues to make new all-time highs. Amsterdam, new all-time highs over in the Netherlands. Italy, 17-year highs. Almost there, look.

The Milano Indice de Bolsa. I can't believe it. Portugal, highest level since 2011. We can keep going. Brussels, new all-time highs. And the Bell 20. Ireland, shout out Ireland. New all-time highs and the Bell 20. Ireland, shout out Ireland. New all-time highs for the Ireland Stock Exchange.

Look at that. Austria, 17-year highs over in the Vienna Index. Shout out to Prague, new all-time highs in Prague. Finally getting above those great financial crisis highs. Spain, the highest level since the great financial crisis. This one will double top. I can see it. You know, shout out to Spain. Alright. And then Greece, new decade plus highs, and

then we could just continue to keep going. Tel Aviv, shout out Israel. Not only outperformed America last year, outperformed America once again this year. You hear nothing but terrible things about Israel, stock market, all it does is make new all-time highs. Johannesburg, shout out Africa, again, so many Africa shout outs today. New all-time highs for the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. India pushing up against new all-time highs. This is the Nifty 50. Then if you look at the bank Nifty, these are Indian banks. So you got the European banks, you got the financials in America, and you got India doing the exact same thing. China hitting new multi-year highs, the short

interest in China off the charts. It keeps ripping and they keep shorting more and I love to see it. Japan finally exceeding those 1989 highs. So much memory. This is crazy. So much memory. This is crazy.

Like this is the most epic of all the country charts, I think. Really? Yeah, it's because it's a bear market. It's a bear market, like a breakout, like 38 years in the making. It's extraordinary. I love Japan so much.

It makes me so happy. Shout out to Japan. So those buyers from 1989, they're almost break even here. They're break even now for sure. And then so when you look at it in various currencies, this is Japan priced in yen making all-time highs. But if you price Japan in the dollar,

which is the next chart, what are you gonna see? You're gonna see all-time highs as well. So it's not the yen, it's not the dollar, it's Japanese stocks. It's the stocks, right? So we'll finish up here, Singapore new all-time highs, Australia new all-time highs, Brazil, and we'll finish up in Latin America, Brazil Bovespa new all-time highs. Brazil, and we'll finish up in Latin America.

Brazil, Bovespa, new all-time highs. This is all price and local currency. Chile, new all-time highs. Mexico, new all-time highs. And of course, Peru, the Bolsa de Valores. New all-time highs. So sell? Listen, we did the same thing a year and a half ago.

Which way's the trend? I need Venus, Neptune, and Jupiter to confirm what we're seeing here on Earth. Listen, if they had a stock exchange it would be on this list. Round of applause for JSA. And really for investors around the world, what could derail this? Maybe like a 10% rip in the dollar would definitely derail this. Can you throw up the dollar chart? As a matter of fact, yes. Yes, that is exactly right. If you're like, all right, this all looks amazing, but what happens if this is the F, yeah?

Yeah. Okay. What if this is a false breakdown? Yeah. Okay. Yeah. So then, you know, we were talking about at the beginning of the year, how the big, you know, heads up is the dollar could be about to collapse.

Boy did it. Part of the reason why I thought that was going to happen was where sentiment was. Commercial hedgers were super short the dollar. The dumb money, the speculators, the ones that are short Bitcoin here, they were long the dollar coming into the year. They got smoked. Yeah. Right?

And that was the opposite. The hedgers are actually net long the dollar right now. And then The Economist magazine in the fourth quarter last year, remember the water Benjamin's shooting up in the air like a rocket ship? Remember that? Now it's like George Washington on a stretcher.

Like that's like the news. Oh no, it's like a ghost face and it says the dollar crisis unfolding. Actually. J.C. and if you were to have some charts that would invert it, like Grant Hawk which does a lot of the stuff, the risk on risk off ratio, in sectors that trend, if you were to guess, there is one sector today that was red, the market just closed. There's one sector that was red today, it just made a new cycle low relative to the S&P 500.

Which, what's the sector? Stables. Close. Healthcare. Healthcare. Down a buck ten today percentage-wise. Every other sector is green. So that's a great segue.

Let me show you another awful chart I made. I want to pitch you what I think is the biggest contrarian call right now I'm not saying it's gonna work. I'm just saying if I were a Died in the world contrarian. This is the only thing I'd be buying And maybe it will work. Here's the IBB, which is the large cap biotech index It's a little bit concentrated into the top ten names versus the S&P 500 ten years, so the last ten years to the top 10 names versus the S&P 500 10 years. So the last 10 years you did 249.1% total return on the S&P.

You did 1.7% not annually, period. 1.7% in biotech. This is literally the worst place you could have been as a sec as like a, I guess part of healthcare, but like as a big industry group this is as bad as it gets but it looks like this downtrend could be could we maybe maybe maybe this is XBI so let's let's put up a so XBI is equal weight so there's more tickers in this one it's a little bit got a little bit of a small cap bent. I don't know. I'm not saying it's an uptrend.

I'm just saying, is it breaking the downtrend of the last year? Sort of a little bit. I gotta tell you, this is one of those scenarios where I think everybody's wrong. The short interest right now in the XBI is as high as it's been in years. I mean, you wanna talk about short sellers overstaying their welcome. Not only are they incredibly short, the

biotechs, they're new 52 week highs and short interest in the Russell 2000. Now. So when you think about what's in the Russell 2000, what's in it? You got a ton of biotechs, 250 biotechs. Let me ask you like, when rates come down, do people think biotech is not gonna rally? Because I know it will. It always does. That people buy small cap piece of shit biotech stocks

when interest rates are coming down, period. I don't have a reason for why it makes sense for them to do that. I'm just saying they do it. But interest rates have been going up, or sideways, not going down. All right, this is Ari Wald. But then hold on, the other thing I was gonna tell you is that it's top-down.

Short interest in the smalls and then what's in the smalls? Regional banks and biotechs. Short interest is off the charts in both. Yeah. So it's a short interest of Russell 2000. And then to quote macro charts, give macro charts a follow, great follow. And he says that never in history have we had a major top in the market with this much short interest in the Russell 2000. You're seeing it in the ETF and the futures market. So that's gotta get unwound first, in other words.

I mean, nothing has to happen, but like you could place your bets. So I'm with you. All right, let me show you. This is Ari, a friend of ours, Ari Wald from Oppenheimer. He's basically saying this is the final piece to unlock the broader breadth that people wanna see. And he's saying XBI above $89

would support broader 200-day participation. Like this is the last big piece of the market that just has had no benefit whatsoever. And then let me show you a second chart real quick. Revisiting biotech's lost decade. It's crazy, but like to have zero progress for this whole area of the market for such a long period of time

and he's showing the 10-year US Treasury yield versus up against the S&P biotech versus the S&P 500. Yeah. That's a pretty neat correlation there. That's what you were just saying. Yeah. It's pretty incredible. These stocks are just dead. Huh. That is good stuff. It's good stuff. Yeah. But to your point, everybody already agrees that they're dead and they suck and they think

they're going lower. I agree. And this, particularly the biotechs, is part of the ARC short, the Cathie Wood short. I mean, I don't know if you know this, but she's writing highest short interest ever in ARC on ARC. Let me show you two charts that don't look like it's ARC. Biotech is ARC. You know, which of which of these if either would you buy?

Here's Amdalam Pharmaceuticals is the fifth largest holding an IBB, believe it or not. ALNY, not a name a lot of people know. This is on my best stocks in the market list. This looks pretty good to me. Looks very good. Okay. Gilead, everyone knows this name. This stock has done nothing for 15 years and then all of a sudden near the 52 week high

list, multi-year high I should say these are the only two of the top 10 IBB names that looks like it has any semblance of life to them. Remember Regeneron? What's up with these arithmetic scale charts? Yeah it's high roll. I don't have that much time. Anyway I thought it was interesting that you would think in a bull market, there'd be some big biotechs doing really well. Maybe there were some small ones that are buckling the trend, but overall, nobody cares. Well, I think that I think you're right.

And what you just said is that, you know, the overall biotech, you know, the problem with biotechs is that they're all so little. And you know, they're all, you know, there's very few big biotech stocks. They always get bought out by the big ones, right? If you look at, if you sort by like biotechs between 10 and 30 billion in market cap, there's like five of them, right, there's like none. So they're all super little.

But you have like the Amgen's of the world, they're just not working. Well, I think that it's on a case by case basis in that group. It's hard to buy a basket, particularly the XBI, because there's so many different things going on. But I think it comes back to what Ari was saying. I want to give a shout out to Ari.

Well, I don't read anybody's work. Like, I don't have time to worry about what other people think. Ari's one of the people that I read. Very few. So, shout out to Ari. And I think that when he's talking about the market market breath think about just how many biotechs there are There's a zillion of them. Yeah, there's like 250 and the Russell 2000 There's so many so when you talk about market breath like this is a big group because there's so many of them

By the way regional banks also dude if you did if you did a biotech chart of the week, it would be hot People really love that shit. All right. They really do. Try to find one that's going up. Uh, let's skip ahead. We're going to do Fave Mag seven for the second half. The reason why this is relevant is these are the stocks that everyone owns.

Or if they don't own them, they're following them and they might want to buy one. So these are like the mega cap tech names. I don't think they'll outperform per se. I got tons of stocks that I own that are doing way better than my Mag-7 stocks, but I'd just be curious to hear what you think is the best technical setup amongst those seven names for let's say now into year end. What are you looking at?

And then so what are the seven? Right. Tesla, Microsoft, Apple. Google, Amazon. Google, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia. Not Broadcom? No. Not in it. Um.

Taiwanese. Taiwan semi? No, no, no, Broadcom. Taiwanese? Sorta, not really. Is it? No, it's not. It's not in it, it might as well be at this point.

I thought it was from America. No, no, no, it might as well be at this point. Really, okay. Do you want me to. It might as well be at this point. Really? Okay. Do you want me to go with what you think? Well, go ahead. Alright. Wait. You know which one, J.C.? No, I'm going to give him my answer. J.C. could think. Okay.

Oh, okay, okay, okay. Alright. So this is a bit contrarian, and I've been talking a lot of smack about the company, not the stock, although the stock too. I think Apple, if it breaks here, this is Apple relative to Spy, that is multi-year support. If it breaks here, this is Apple relative to Spy, that is multi-year support. If it breaks this, which is very well might, not game over, obviously it's 3.5 trillion or 3 trillion, whatever it is.

But I don't think it's gonna break. Oh shit, my bad. I don't think it's gonna break. I think it's gonna hold and Apple is gonna catch up. There is so much negativity in the stock. Any sort of AI- Did you say the same thing about about alphabet right now. No, no No, no, no, no, no, Google's working Google's working. It just closed out of multi-month high yeah, there's so much negativity around Apple if they do anything in AI the socks gonna rip and That's my answer. And then why do we have to buy the American ones? Why can't we buy the Apple question?

Well now with the Apple of China the Tesla of China with Amazon of China We can but not for the not for these purposes not for the Apple of China, the Tesla of China, the Amazon of China. We can, but not for these purposes, not for the purposes of this exercise. These are the stocks that our listeners are involved with. They're either in them or they're out of them, might get back in there. The one that I would buy right now that I think goes the highest over what period? The rest of the year. I don't know, year end arbitrarily? Second half of the year? Probably Tesla. Tesla is down the most of the group. Negative 20% on the year.

Definitely the most controversial. Probably the one that's, other than Nvidia, the most exciting one is going up. Okay. Do you like the set up here? Yeah, I mean, listen, we've been in it. As soon as that guy from Minnesota, what's his face, was like dancing on stage, like talking about, like, you know, what's the guy?

Waltz? Waltz, Tim Waltz. He was like, this is the guy he walks around talking about how broke he is and how he doesn't own any stocks. And then he's on stage at a rally talking about like how it helps him get through his day to watch like Tesla stock fall. Like, if you're not buying. Did he say that? Yeah. Pre or post election. Dude, test this up like 50% since then. No, it was like a few months ago. Oh boy. Oh yeah, huge winner.

Oh yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, best trade of the year. And I think that I'm not just making fun of him, but that was like, you know, the same week I got a phone call from a friend of mine telling me that they were getting off Twitter because they didn't like the CEO. I was like, we gotta be close. Well, there are people, probably a million people who wake up in the morning and pray for Tesla's stock

default. Sounds like a fun life. Yeah. So if that's the case, how are we not buying Tesla? Let me show you Amazon. Golden Cross. 240 resistance, um, heading back, heading back to, to this level after about six months of consolidation. Um, here's Jeff DeGraff's version better than mine. Shout out Jeff DeGraff. Jeff says this is the most notable of the, of the mega cap stocks. And, um, he's also pointing out the golden cross, but he's also pointing out relative performance to the whole Russell 1000. That looks like it's going to break out. What if I told you this? And not quite, not nowhere near really being overbought in such a way that you'd be

worried about it even though it's been ripping the last couple of weeks. I think this is the one. Shout out to Jeff DeGraft. Big shout out to Jeff DeGraft. Hey JC, can I do one more chart on this? Yeah. These are fundamentals, you won't care about this, Michael might. This is Amazon price, lowest PE ratio ever, 36. Not that that's cheap, but cheap for Amazon. You can see the growth rate is low. Okay, fine.

I'll give you that. It's not as high as it used to be. Look at earnings per share, hockey-sticking. This is just trailing 12 months. Nothing fancy. So basically, you've got earnings starting to explode because of all the cost cutting. You've got the lowest P.E. multiple ever

you've been able to buy Amazon at. And you've got a stock and a golden cross about to challenge all time highs set six months ago. I sort of like that set up for the end of the year. I just read Barry's book and he says that valuations don't matter. Oh, well then in that forget that forget that last chart. But hold on but I did want to get back to the Jeff DeGraw chart. All right put that back up.

So many Barry shout outs by the way. Yeah. So what if I told you. He doesn't listen to the show that often. Perfect. We'll send it to him. That book. So what if I told you that one of the biggest reasons why I like Tesla to continue higher is because I'm bullish Amazon, right? Go on. Oh, say more. Because Amazon represents 22% of the consumer discretionary sector, which by the way, in the conversation of the most important sectors we didn't discuss,

but is in the conversation, obviously. So consumer discretionary, 22% Amazon should probably be more. Amazon's in my f my fucking house every day. And when it's not, like the guy knocks on the door, like, everything OK? Yeah. I mean. You didn't order anything.

Just this is a wellness check. Dude. My wife orders things on Amazon on the way to ordering things on Amazon. My wife orders things, and as she presses buy, she's telling me she has to return it. Mine doesn't return anything. Okay.

Maybe they should share notes. So Tesla is like 18% of the consumer discretionary sector. So if this bull market's got legs, which I don't know if I need to make that clear. I think it does. Right. Then are we going to have another major leg to this bull market and these shorts are going to their heads are going to be exploding even more over the next six months? Is that going to happen with consumer discretionary stocks falling?

Probably not, right? So if you were a reverse engineer with the next leg of a bull market looks like, Amazon is certainly part of that as a consumer discretionary stock, the leader in the space. Is that going to move with Tesla falling? I don't think so. I mean, it could. I could envision a scenario with us. It could, but is that the bet that you wanna make?

I probably do not. So when I see Sentiment and the Minnesota guy dancing on stage, and I see everybody hating Elon for better or worse. I've never met the guy. I don't know anything about him. But people are very upset with whatever it is that he's doing or not doing. I don't even know. But I like it.

The angrier the better. Okay. And I think that not only, correct me if I'm wrong, not only is he pissing off the liberals, he's pissing off the Republicans too, so that's even better, right? We're getting both sides. So I think that that creates a further squeeze. And by the way, with ARK as the having the largest short exposure ever, the highest short interest ever in ARK, Tesla is in that. It's not, it doesn't have super high short exposure, but Tesla is an ARK stock. It's going vertical.

It's a poster child. So you got Palantir. It's part of that universe. You know, so John, can you show getthecharts.com? I know there's people that always ask for the charts. If you want the charts today, Spencer Israel set it up. Thank you, Spencer. Shout out to Spencer. Shout out to Pete Campbell. GetTheCharge.com. I know a lot of people always ask. Go ahead and get the charts. All right, hit my applause. All right, Jacey, congrats, ladies and gentlemen.

So we always end the show these days by asking people what they're most excited about in the future, what they're looking forward to. Could be anything, personal, something you're doing with business, trip you have planned. You tell us, what are you looking forward to? Just bought a house up in the Poconos on a lake. Okay. Oh, not Jersey Shore? Not Jersey Shore. Okay, why? Because I could use it the rest of the year. Okay. You know, so you know, we might get a shore house

eventually, but like to use it for three months, you know, we might get a shore house eventually, but like to use it for three months, like I think it's probably a better life investment. You can do Airbnb. I mean, we rented a house for six weeks earlier this summer. I mean, this tan, I don't have this tan all year round, you know, so like we could do that, but to have a house we could do it.

On token-os you could always go. The fall, I'm an hour away, so the fall, the winter, the spring, you know. Even the summer's nice, even though I'd rather be at the beach in the summer. Oh, we love it. What are you looking forward to? I am looking forward to... Hikes with Phil Perlman.

I'm looking forward to tonight. I love being with my friends, and I love you, JC. And I love you, Phil, even more than I like JC. Where are you guys going? Phil's definitely more lovable than me. This is not going to air until tomorrow. Where are you going? We are going... Where are we going? Dams? Oh, we're not doxing ourselves.

No, you're not doxing yourself. Math nerds all over the place will come looking for Michael Van Dam. There'll be dozens of them. Oh, we're not doxing ourselves. No, you're not doxing yourself. Math nerds all over the place will come looking for Michael Bannon. There'll be dozens of them. We're going to Dom's Bogan. So this is a Korean barbecue joint. Shout out to Sam Rowe, who's got me hooked on this place. Shout out to Sam Rowe.

Alright, I'm sorry I can't join you guys. This is what life is all about, right? Being with friends. That's what I'm looking forward to. I'm sorry. I can't join you guys. So this is what life is all about, right? Being with friends. So that's what I'm looking forward to. I agree. All right. We have a cake on the table for the 200th episode. Want to take pictures? Okay. All right. There's a lot of special guests in the studio today. What's the significance of the rocks? What is that?

Well, Josh was like, you're a theme guy, so... I had nothing to do with the cake. The cake is beautiful though. You know what it looks like? Doesn't it look like those paper plates? Yes. It does right? Arizona. Yeah yeah yeah yeah.

Alright. Are we, they nailed it. Are we lighting this or is it symbolic? Symbolic. Alright. Oh okay. We're not going to light it at all? Blow it out?

Is that only for, it's our birthday isn't it? Yeah we're not, it's. I don't have a lot I don't have a lighter we can skip that just with 25 years ago I would like what are you looking forward to I'm taking my kids to a Broadway show I don't know if I mentioned that so I would be with you guys at dinner obviously these tickets these tickets for bought a long long time ago um Rob Heathers. Where is that in the Pantheon of 80s movies? Top half? It's Winona Ryder, so instantly that elevates it.

Is that Columbus? Who did that? Who made Heathers? It's super dark. It would not have been Columbus. They're murderers. They're in high school and they're killing their classmates. So I don't know who that... Anyway, and we're going to Santi. You know, Michael White, Chef Michael White. Yeah. Santi is his new place. I know. How many names is this guy dropping? He's a little bit cool. All right. All right. Anyway, we're going to we're going to wrap up so I can go eat dinner.

Guys, I want to just thank everyone out there in Spotify land. Apple podcasts. everyone out there in Spotify land, Apple podcasts, hit my applause button, YouTube, social media, Instagram. Alright. Delayed response. I don't care where you watch the show, where you listen to the show, whatever works best for you. We love you.

Thank you so much for watching. Thank you to our amazing guests all these years. JC Peretz, thank you so much for being a regular here on the show. Thank you guys to the crew, to the fans. We love you so much. We appreciate you. And as I've said before, we will be here forever. We are never leaving. I hope that's dawning on people. We will be here forever. Thank you We'll see you on the 400th episode. We pretty sure And that's a wrap