The Compound and Friends - Gangsta's Paradise

Starting point is 00:00:00 Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the compound and friends. I am downtown Josh Brown. Welcome to the show on today's episode. We're going to play. What are your thoughts? It's me. It's Michael Batnick. We always have a lot of fun. I know not all of you are able to join us for the live version that we do on YouTube every Tuesday. So this is the next best thing. We're going to talk about technology stock valuations. We're going to talk about the Fed on pausing, which is a thing that happened in the last week. Dividend investing, the trucking company bankruptcy that is currently taking place, the potential for a soft landing fakeout. And we'll explain what that means. landing fake out and we'll explain what that means. There's going to be a mystery chart. We're going to make the case, all kinds of fun stuff. And we love the fact that you guys are showing up for the live. We also love the fact that you guys are here for the podcast version. So thank you so much. After that, we're going to talk to Mike Lombardi. And Mike is a gridiron genius. That's the name of his first book. Mike has coached or managed NFL teams at the highest levels in the sport. Two Super Bowl rings, coached under Al Davis, coached under Bill Belichick. He knows what he's talking about. He's been around the league for a long time.

Starting point is 00:01:20 He writes about it. He speaks about it. And we're really lucky to have him because, believe it or not, this week, I can't believe we're here already, this week, the NFL preseason gets underway on Thursday night. And I think it's going to be a lot of fun this year. So many great storylines heading into just the preseason alone. And Mike is here to break it all down for us. We're going to talk about Aaron Rodgers on the Jets. We're going to talk about the running back

Starting point is 00:01:50 controversy and all kinds of fun stuff. So again, stick around for what are your thoughts right now. Then we'll get to Mike Lombardi. We appreciate you guys listening. Thank you so much. Let's get right to it. Thank you so much. Let's get right to it. is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions. Clients of Ritholtz Wealth Management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. Okay, gangsters. Let me see the chat. Look at this. It's going crazy tonight.

Starting point is 00:02:57 Nick Kaspersky is here. Midwest Cannabis is back. Chris Hayes, Jay Luther, Georgie D. Hey, now. I'm with you. Ryan Tinney. Rachel's here. Nicole is in the chat, John Carlo, everybody's here. It's a big night. We're going to have some fun tonight.

Starting point is 00:03:13 We're going to get into a lot of important stuff. But first, a couple of things. Number one, let's give a shout out to Bird Dogs. Michael, tell us about tonight's special offer from the fine decked out. From the fine folks at Bird Dogs. I'm decked out in the dogs. I got the polo. I love that shirt. I didn't even notice it before when I was with you.

Starting point is 00:03:30 Let me see. Fits good. Feels good. I feel like it makes me look skinny. I put on five pounds recently. Can't even see it. Yeah. No, you look great. You look great.

Starting point is 00:03:38 I came to work with this hat today. This dad hat. Yeah. What is it? Is it cotton? Yeah. Whatever. It looks thick. Replace hat. Yeah. What is it? Like cotton? Yeah. Whatever. It looks thick.

Starting point is 00:03:47 Replace it with this. It's got, it's got like the, that material that I like. Anyway, if you want. What is that called? Polyester?

Starting point is 00:03:54 No, no, no. What kind of hat is that? It's a, oh, it's a dad hat. A dad hat.

Starting point is 00:03:58 Right. Is polyester the right material? I don't know. Is this the point? It's like a mesh. I don't know. Hold on. I'm getting to the point.

Starting point is 00:04:05 Nylon? Nylon. If you want one of these, go to birddogs.com slash thoughts and add the promo code thoughts with the purchase and you get one of these bad boys. Look good, feel good. What is it? Birddogs.com slash thoughts. As in what are your thoughts? As in what are they? Your thoughts, what are they? What are your thoughts? And then use thoughts in the promo and you get a free hat? Yeah. dope i love it i'm gonna do it later what's with this what's with the title way to have more announcements is important uh friday night this week uh which i guess is what is that august friday night okay what's on a friday night oh so i have a i have a

Starting point is 00:04:43 i have a show on cnbBC for the rest of the summer. Jimmy Kramer takes off on Fridays in August. And while the cat's away, the mice will play. I am going to be live on CNBC 6 to 7 p.m. with none other than one of my favorite all-time market commentators, Michael Santoli. One of the best. Yeah, for sure one of the favorite all-time market commentators, Michael Santoli. One of the best. Yeah, for sure one of the best.

Starting point is 00:05:08 He might be. I mean, top three. Top three. Me and Michael Santoli are doing a show at 6 o'clock every Friday for the rest of the summer called Taking Stock. I hope you guys will tune in. We're lining up guests. We're putting together topics.

Starting point is 00:05:24 We're just going to have fun with it. And we're going to try to pack as much interesting insight about the markets and everything that happens during the week into that Friday show. So please tune in. CNBC Taking Stock Fridays at 6 p.m. Eastern. Okay. Let's do the show. You want to do the show? I do.

Starting point is 00:05:42 Before you start, I feel like the, I don't understand Gangster's Paradise. I mean, I get the reference, but I don't understand why it's... Allow me to enlighten you. Please, school me. I have to tell you, this is one of my all-time favorite market environments that I've ever been in.

Starting point is 00:05:59 I just, I love it so much. It's a rally, but it's a two-way market. Hold on, Duncan, sell everything. No, no, no. I don't mean like, but it's a two-way market. Hold on. Duncan, sell everything. No, no, no. I don't mean like because it's going to keep going up and up and up. Just I love that stocks are reacting during earnings season in really varied ways. It's hard to tell.

Starting point is 00:06:18 You have a lot of companies that missed earnings and the stocks rallied. You had companies with great earnings reports, but they ran up into them and they're pulling back. Not everything is moving up together or down together. Did you see the chart? That's such a great point. Did you see, there's a chart floating around that's not in the doc today of this average stock correlation.

Starting point is 00:06:35 It's about as low as it's been over the last few years, meaning stocks are really moving on their own volition. It's not just everything up, everything down. I really like, that's what I like. That's what I like. There is a Wall Street Journal article describing this environment. And the headline is everyday investors are thriving in a world of wash and yield. Not only is the stock market fun again and are things moving, but now there's just this whole wealth of potential assets that you can own in the fixed income markets too.

Starting point is 00:07:09 And you don't have to choose. You can do both. But this is what I found really interesting. This is the journal. Quote, interest rates are hovering at their highest levels in more than two decades. For individual investors, this has been an unexpected blessing.

Starting point is 00:07:24 Nobody was talking about rate hikes in this context. As a blessing. This is important. Although it is more expensive for consumers to borrow money now than it was 18 months ago, you should have borrowed 18 months ago, they also have more options to put their cash to work. chart on are earning an additional 121 billion from income on investments annually versus one year ago, according to the Commerce Department. That is blunting the 151 billion increase in interest payments on mortgages, credit cards, and other loans. So if you don't have a lot of debt, but you do have a lot of cash, higher interest rates are better, not worse. They're actually an economic stimulus for certain households.

Starting point is 00:08:14 And you and I talked about this. Talk to people who were rich in the early 80s, what they thought of the Fed taking interest rates to 17%. They loved it. They didn't have a mortgage. They didn't carry credit card debt. But all of a sudden, they were earning tons of money in their investment portfolio, a lot of it risk-free. That's kind of, you know, we're not quite, you know, doing that.

Starting point is 00:08:38 But that's the direction that we've been. So I want to bottom line this, then I want to get your reaction. And this is not like an all bullish take, but think about it. Your refinanced mortgage costs less than the yield you're earning on risk-free money market funds

Starting point is 00:08:55 and CDs. That's dope. The cost of living is barely rising now. Maybe let's say outside of healthcare, that's cooling off. Labor costs for businesses.

Starting point is 00:09:07 Travel's expensive as shit. Yes. Your stocks still are near record highs. The earnings on your cash are the highest you've seen in like 30 years. Everyone you know is taking trips, international trips according to Delta, and spending money on whatever they want. Defaults are ultra low for this period in the cycle. Large corporations are climbing out of the earnings

Starting point is 00:09:30 recession. They're actually starting to guide higher. Gen X, my people, we are taking over for the boomers. We're taking over the government, the corporations. Everything's going to be fine going forward. It's us now. It's cool people that grew up with Winona Ryder and Nas. And Pee Wee. And Pee Wee Herman. And we know what we're doing. And we're pretty chill. Everything right now, I think, is in this really great place. What are your thoughts? So you're a gangster and this is your paradise? Is that where you're going? This is my gangster paradise. I'm investing. I'm trading. I'm hiring people. I'm promoting people.

Starting point is 00:10:08 My cash is making more cash. Enough out of you. We heard from you. Listen, shush. It's all gangster shit, though. Got to admit. So over 80% of fixed income is now yielding over 4%. And that's going to be 100 soon.

Starting point is 00:10:22 Yeah. That's pretty great. Then that's going to be 100 soon. Yeah. That's pretty great. The NASDAQ 100 through the end of July up 44%. Best January through July on record. Bang. Pretty incredible.

Starting point is 00:10:33 I'm going to keep doing that. Yeah, stop with the bang. Things are good right now. Things are better than good. Things are great. What do you want? What's missing? If you're not happy right now, what do you want?

Starting point is 00:10:45 Well, hold on. Nothing is evenly distributed. So for people who the higher interest rates are not impacting, for those of us who bought our house before 2022, we're good. For corporations that locked in, remember we spoke about this a lot. You know that pie chart showing the S&P 500 that 87% of it is long-term fixed, that higher interest rates weren't going to impact them? They're good. Now, if you're a junk company that relies on floating rate, your high yield, you're getting pinched. If you're buying a house, you're getting squeezed. So it's not impacting everyone. Most people are fine. But for those people who are not fine, it sucks. But yeah, things are good.

Starting point is 00:11:28 But there's always trade-offs. So if you want to buy a really cheap, affordable house, the best time to do that is in a recession where you're worried about your job. So it's like, what do you want? In other words, you're not going to get this Goldilocks situation. We don't have Goldilocks now, and I'm not suggesting that. So if you know you're not going to get that, then the next best thing is to say, okay, these are the trade-offs that I can live with. And if you make that list of pros and cons, I think for most people, especially the investor class,

Starting point is 00:12:00 all things being equal, they would take this environment over- No doubt. Listen, taking stock. Most other environments. Taking stock. That's what we're saying. Full employment. Inflation coming down. Yields on your cash.

Starting point is 00:12:14 Stocks going up. Yeah, it's been a really good year after a really challenging year, which is sort of the way it's supposed to be. So it didn't have to be this way, but we'll take it. This is how it worked. That's right. This is how it worked out. We'll take it. All right, Josh, I packed a lot in this next topic. I want to start with the chart from Bespoke. Last Thursday, when JC was on, we were talking about an outside day in the S&P 500. What does that mean? We were. You were.

Starting point is 00:12:41 I was. The high of the day was higher than the previous four days. An outside day could just be one candle, but it engulfed the previous four days. And the low and the close was lower than the previous four days. Now, I think I made the point that, listen, the market is innocent until proven guilty. One outside day does not mark a top. These things are incredibly difficult to call. And then the next day I saw bespoke. And then, of course, the market was up 1% the next day. So that key reversal day did not transpire. Charn on, please, John.

Starting point is 00:13:13 So this is from bespoke. It is reversal days, meaning where the S&P 500 hits a 52-week high, then reverse lower, closing below the open, and with an intraday low below the prior day's low. Am I drunk or is there nothing here? Exactly. Nothing. Who taught you that there was? I just thought that outside days were meaningful and in a bull market, they don't mean shit. Now, maybe eventually one of them is going to matter. But if that's like your – I mean, nothing should be a red light. Who talks about outside days that we know?

Starting point is 00:13:50 I guess I don't really hear that that much. No, people do. Maybe for individual stocks, it really matters. And then for the overall market, it doesn't. Is that possible? Maybe. There are no red lights, but certainly I think a yellow – anyway, whatever. It didn't matter.

Starting point is 00:14:02 It didn't matter. Urien Timmer had a great chart. Wait, hold on. Can I just – Yeah, please. Didn't matter. Didn't matter. Yuri and Timur had a great chart. Wait, hold on. Can I just- Yeah, please. Sure. Can we put this back up? Yeah. Is it accurate to say actually that outside days are indicative of a continuing bull market trend? I mean, just eyeballing it, it looks like that. They happen all the time.

Starting point is 00:14:22 Almost like you want outside days. You want days you kind of want them well yeah because doubt fuels bull markets right like you climb the wall and i feel well i mean do you want to be in a market that goes up every single day without how do you buy anything right so i love days like today you could like you things when stocks are trending we talk this, you can't think straight. You're just like, oh my god, I'm not in that. I'm not in that. I'm not in that. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Starting point is 00:14:49 All right, so you need the breather. Even the stocks you like and that you're in, if you want to own more of them, you need the breather. So I like the reversal days. Just don't reverse too much. Just not too hard. All right, Yuri and Timber had a chart talking about earnings season. And we spent a lot of time, I keep reminding the audience how much time we spent last year

Starting point is 00:15:11 about analysts along with their estimates and how that was like fuel for the current rally. Okay. So half of the S&P 500 index has reported and 81% of companies have beaten estimates by an average of 566 basis points. The 81% is typical, but the 566% is outsized. So not only are companies beating estimates, they're destroying estimates. And a lot of them are raising guidance to boot. How are they doing that? Are they crushing on revenue?

Starting point is 00:15:47 Or are their costs not as high as people feel? It feels like there's beats all over the place and raises. No, no, no. But there's only- I understand. How are they doing it? There's only two ways. Either your expenses are lower than expected or your revenues are higher. There's not one way.

Starting point is 00:16:00 There's not a third way. So I'm curious. Like, I haven't really dove. i haven't really dove i haven't really dove in into this but a lot of companies were a lot of companies were cutting costs all year yeah that's probably showing i guess you could be doing both too and it's so 20 in 2022 is all companies raising prices now there's like a unit acceleration like people are buying more stuff too oh man this i mean this is like this is like the thing like the thing that you almost feel guilty dreaming about a situation like this where companies spend a year right-sizing their cost structure, quote-unquote, LOL, and then revenue starts to accelerate right when they've finished firing people. I mean, I don't want to say the G word.

Starting point is 00:16:43 We agreed we're not going to say Goldilocks, but that's pretty great. And that's kind of what we're witnessing, I guess. And that, well, that's, that's how the, you get the NASDAQ 100 up 44% in seven months. All right. So we've spent a bunch of time on this show and other shows talking about valuation specifically in the Magnificent Seven and the fact that, yeah, they should trade at a premium. So Dan Greenhouse put it in a way that is very understandable and relevant to what we've been talking about. Dan said this, question, Microsoft revenues were up 10% and net income was up 23%. Google revenues were up 9% and net income was up 15%. If the broad market is trading at roughly 19 times with 0% top line growth, what's the right multiple for stocks like that?

Starting point is 00:17:30 And the answer is, that's not rhetorical. The answer is higher, right? These are premium businesses, premium growth. They should trade at a premium. Why wouldn't they? And now there's not a problem, but when they're 30% of the index, it drags the multiple of the index higher.

Starting point is 00:17:46 And if you're not putting that into context and you say, oh, the index is expensive, well, yeah, because the biggest stocks happen to be trading at a deserved premium to the rest of the market. I was going to say, like, some stocks inevitably will trade at a premium. That's how you get an average multiple. So if it was going to be any stock trading at a premium, why wouldn't it be the companies with the best margins, the best secular growth trends, the best management, the best products, the biggest customer base? What should be at a premium if not Microsoft? I don't even know. I don't know. I really don't know.

Starting point is 00:18:20 Somebody made a chart today. I think this was Goldman, but I can't remember. It broke out the S&P by each of the 11 sectors. And it showed that on a forward PE ratio, healthcare, discretionary, and tech are all trading at a premium. The other eight sectors are all trading at a discount relative to the rest of the market. Put up this tweet again from Dan. So fun fact about Dan Greenhouse, greenhouse and i'm 99 sure i actually heard

Starting point is 00:18:48 this and i'm not making it up he went to sleepaway camp with adam levine from maroon 5 and i think very fun but that could be totally made up i don't know why i think that i just think that i think he told me that i don't know i'm sure he'll he'll weigh in at some point all right well we'll find out because i think dan's coming back on the show in a couple of months. So, oh, all right. Next chart, please. Sector price to earnings ratio for the past year, courtesy of Bespoke and technology. I mean, this is just nuts. So, okay. So, tech is on the bottom left. Communication services on the top left, which is like, what's in here? Like Google and Facebook.

Starting point is 00:19:27 Dude, this is the re-rating of a century. I've never seen anything like this. But because it's so big, look what it did to the S&P 500. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, tech is 25%. So you get a re-rating of the whole index just by virtue of what happens in tech and communication services. One final chart.

Starting point is 00:19:47 One final chart. This is from Morgan. This is great. It's equal weight versus cap weight. And so the bottom right is what everybody's talking about. That mega cap is crushing on the S&P 500. But next to that, you've got utilities, equal weight crushing cap weight. On top of that, you've got materials, same thing, equal weight crushing.

Starting point is 00:20:12 To the right of that, so right above the yellow is tech. Again, we know the story in tech. Megacap is dominating. But look to the bottom left up one. That's industrials. I mean, anyway, it's not just mega cap. Equal weight is working in a lot of sectors. When you equal weight the sector and you show, wait, put that back up.

Starting point is 00:20:31 I'm sorry. When you equal weight the sector and then you show the performance and it still looks like that Excel, that industrials chart, which is the second from the bottom left, the one above it, what that's telling you is you just have massive participation across the whole sector. And industrials specifically is so interesting. Like, yeah, energy has a lot of different stocks in it, but basically they all go up and down with the price of oil and gas. Industrials is such a wide dispersion between what the companies in that index do. Everything from making planes and bombs

Starting point is 00:21:09 to like literally making buses and it's just like everything all over the map. Did you see Caterpillar today? Air conditionings and- Closing an all-time high? Cat looks ridiculous. Cat looks amazing. But the point is, that's a top three industrial stock, and that's not what's driving the XLI higher.

Starting point is 00:21:30 I mean, it is, but all of the stocks in the sector are acting the way CAT is, with very, very few exceptions, at least right now. The homebuilders in the industrials, right? Homebuilders. Do I have that right? I think they are. Where else would they be? Yeah, I guess. Discretion. Okay. All right. All right? I think they are. Where else would they be? Yeah, I guess. Disquestion.

Starting point is 00:21:47 Okay. All right. All right. Let's do this. How do I pronounce her name? She's an amazing reporter and writer, Jean Smealik. Is that right, do you think? You know who I'm talking?

Starting point is 00:21:58 Gina Smealik? No? I don't know who she is. So she writes about the economy for the New York Times, and she's actually at all those FOMC meetings. I think she's like the New York Times' power whisperer now. that I think is worth mentioning because as good as everything feels right now and as likely as a soft landing now feels to a very many people, she points out that it always feels this way

Starting point is 00:22:35 right before you get rugged. And there've been many times where the commentariat has settled on a soft landing narrative where actually that's not what ended up happening. So I just want to quote her. I want to quote her very quickly, and then we're going to pop up a chart. This is Gina. In late 1989, an economic commentary newsletter from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland asked the question that was on everyone's mind after a series of Fed rate increases, quote, how soft a

Starting point is 00:23:05 landing, question mark, end quote. Analysts were pretty sure growth was going to cool gently without a painful downturn. The question was how gently. In late 2000, a column in the New York Times was titled, Making a Soft Landing Even Softer. And in late 2007, forecasters at the Federal Reserve of Dallas concluded that the United States should manage to make it through the subprime mortgage crisis without a downturn. Within weeks or months of all three declarations, the economy had plunged into recession. Unemployment shot up, businesses closed, growth contracted. It is a point of historical caution that is relevant today when soft landing optimism is again surging. What are your thoughts? I think that's like

Starting point is 00:23:51 an important perspective to bring out now. Yeah. I'm not dismissing this. What I would just say is I would love to know what percentage of debt is floating versus fixed today versus those previous episodes. Because we already know that the interest rate market impacts housing, which is one of the biggest markets in the economy. And it impacts borrowing costs, obviously. But a lot of that is already locked. So I don't know. In fact, I do- Wait, wait, wait. If people have fixed rate debt that's very low, you can't have a recession? Is that like the inference that you're- I'm not saying you can't, but the economy is much more susceptible to interest rates when a lot of it is floating.

Starting point is 00:24:36 And I know that corporations, their debt is much more locked today, fixed, than it was floating back in the day. Because I've seen that chart over time. Rachel saying Michael looks like serious dad going to play golf or something. I have to say, I think you look like a million bucks. I like this book for you. I'm not a golfer, but thank you.

Starting point is 00:24:55 No, I know. You're good. This is good. All right, listen, I just- What do you think? Well, I think the best example of a soft landing that we have is 1994 to 1995. And Gina covers that as well.

Starting point is 00:25:09 This is her. In 1994 and 1995, the Fed managed to slow the economy gently without plunging it into a downturn in what is perhaps its most famous successful soft landing. Ironically, commentators quoted then in The Times weren't convinced that policymakers were going to pull it off. And she links to a piece from the Times with a lot of skepticism about a soft landing. But they did it then. Did the internet help? Of course it helped.

Starting point is 00:25:38 In 94, the Fed, without – there are no press conferences and there's no warning. Between meetings, they start hiking rates. And I think you got a little bit of turmoil in the bond market. The S&P sold off like 15% immediately. No, a lot of turmoil in the bond market. I know. But the point is, if anything, there was so much turmoil that a soft landing looked unlikely then. And yet you actually

Starting point is 00:26:05 got one. And I don't know how much was floating rate versus fixed then either, but I don't even think that was the variable. I think just the demographics of the country and the boomers making a ton of money, they could withstand a little bit of stock market turmoil and higher rates. And that's why we didn't. So I think right now- Come on, let's not overthink this. I'm not saying, I would never take a recession off the table. We could always have one. It's always, there's always a recession coming. However, given everything that we just digested, 525 basis points of rate hikes, the regional

Starting point is 00:26:36 banks, inflation, and yet the unemployment rate is still 3.6%. If people have jobs, there won't be a recession. It's really that simple. And at this point, what could cause or what will cause layoffs? I don't know what the layoffs were in 1990, that first example. In 07, I remember the layoffs didn't really start to 08. remember the layoffs didn't really start to 08. But look, I'm just saying it's worth considering that it always feels like it's a soft landing until it's not. That's true. And I always consider recessions coming. Yes. OK. Of course. All right. Let's keep moving. All right. Dion Reboan tweeted. Shout out to Dion. This is from the Fed presser. He said, not sure I've ever seen a change in policy statement

Starting point is 00:27:28 with this few changes in it. It reads like the Fed raised rates, but there's no reason why. So can we throw this up, please? It's basically word for word. And I just don't understand this you don't like this thing where they unpaused for no reason i just don't get it i don't understand how they keep saying data dependent bitch what don't you understand what they told you data dependent they told you they got more data the labor market is not bud budging. The last, when they paused 30 days prior,

Starting point is 00:28:09 they said, we're going to wait and see. The full effects of hour tightening have yet to be felt. And what changed in that 30-day period? I don't know. I can't believe how long the lag is. The lag effects that we've been told are lagging. But I'm telling you, the reason why they're lagging is- How much longer are they going to lag for?

Starting point is 00:28:30 Exactly. The reason why they're lagging is because people aren't impacted by it. If you have a mortgage, you're not impacted by the rising rates. Unless you are the only idiot that took out a 5% mortgage and didn't refinance at three when you had the chance for two or three years. Right. It's not affecting the Fed funds rate. It's not really affecting your household balance sheet. If you're buying a house, if you're buying a car, if you have credit card debt, yeah, you're in a world of pain. But that's not most that's not most of the country so the leg when when why like when it's not i understand it works on a leg i understand soon and and you won't be ready for it i understand it doesn't happen overnight

Starting point is 00:29:17 but it's uh 13 months already how long does a leg have to be before you have to say it's totally unconnected to... So wait, they started in March, right? So, okay. If we have a recession in three years, is that the lag or is that just a whole new thing? When do you have to turn the hourglass back over and just say, hey, it didn't

Starting point is 00:29:40 happen this time? December. All right, your turn. By the way, go ahead. I want to clear this yellow trucking bullshit up because I saw over the weekend, a lot of the usual people looking for, you know, seizing on any piece of bad news to say, you see, yellow trucking was one of the worst run companies in America. It is partly a management issue and partly a union issue. And this combination of mismanagement and really big, dumb acquisitions combined with loans that they should not have taken combined with a union that really was sick and tired of listening to this company's stories and just a whole mix of things combined.

Starting point is 00:30:30 And that's why Yellow Trucking, which is 100 years old, by the way, one of the most well-known, oldest trucking businesses in America, right before their 100th birthday, when 99 years old, filed for bankruptcy. This company's been struggling for 20 years. Basically, so anyone taking this and saying it's a canary in the coal mine or it's indicative of like some huge economic slowdown, that is not what this is. This is highly company specific. This is highly company-specific.

Starting point is 00:31:10 It's a heavily leveraged, poorly managed union-employing trucking company that just couldn't make it. The Wall Street Journal did a really great piece just profiling the rise and fall of this company. But they had 22,000 Teamster employees. And they are in the LTL business. And that is less than truckload business. And that is not a great business even in good times. Less than truckload is companies that want to ship things but they don't have enough to fill up a whole truck. There's room on a yellow truck. And they've made a bunch of acquisitions, very large ones.

Starting point is 00:31:45 They've taken out debt. Trump gave them a $700 million COVID rescue loan. They also couldn't pay that off. The US Treasury owns 30% of this company's stock because of that loan. And that stock is worth nothing, 70 cents as of last Friday. I haven't looked at it today. So it's a really messy situation, a very old storied company that just couldn't make it. But I want everyone listening and watching to understand, don't hold this up as your canary in the coal mine economic recession story because it really has nothing to do with it.

Starting point is 00:32:22 And I asked Sean to make some charts. Let's just go through these really quickly. This is the Dow Jones transportation. I guess this is a percentage change. So this is up 23% year to date. And as you could see, it was flat on year as recently as May. So that entire run is just in the last few months. That's not happening into a major economic recession in the transports. What's next? This is what good trucking company stocks look like over the last year. J.B. Hunt is in purple. I think that's considered to be the best in class. Orange is Old Dominion. And there's a

Starting point is 00:33:06 whole bunch of other ones. C.H. Robinson, you've probably heard of. Knight Swift is a big one. They're fine. And none of them look like Yellow Roadway. Next, this is market cap, just to give you a sense. Old Dominion is the biggest, 46 billion. J.B. Hunt, 21 billion. JB Hunt, 21 billion. Okay, do we have anything more on this? I think that's it. So again, don't listen to people that are telling you that this means anything more than here's a really shitty company that couldn't make it. And that's my public service announcement.

Starting point is 00:33:38 Michael, do you have any thoughts? I don't have any thoughts. I covered it succinctly and yet completely. You did a segment, segment. Good for you. Okay. Thank you for that. Let's talk about dividend investing. There's a great chart from Nicholas Rabner. He said- I don't like that. Rabner? I'm going to go Rabner. Okay. I think.

Starting point is 00:34:07 Generating a 0% total return since 2013 by investing in US stocks is almost impressive given that the market is up 2X. Resist the siren call of dividends, my fellow investors. They will wreck your- What a troll. Ship. What a troll. What do you mean troll?

Starting point is 00:34:24 I mean, the data is the data. So hold on. This is a specific dividend fund. This is the Global X super dividend where they are looking for the highest yielders almost regardless of the quality of the issuer. We should point that out. Well, I'm about to. These are the biggest holdings. New York Community Bank, Magellan Midstream, Iron Mountain. IBM's in here because that's not a super high yielder. So I don't know the methodology. It says, well, whatever. My bad.

Starting point is 00:34:54 I probably should have done that before. But anyway, this thing yields. It yields almost 7%. And I think the point that this product is making that I wholeheartedly agree with is, listen, dividends are great. I love dividends. Who doesn't love a dividend? But saying this, like we've all heard this. Oh, it yields 11%. Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. That's a- Why does it yield 11%?

Starting point is 00:35:11 Yeah, that is a very bad strategy. That will get you into trouble. For example, AT&T, one of the only reasons to own AT&T has been for the dividend. The price of the stock has gone nowhere for like 30 years. Now, I just want to clear the air a little bit. On top is the dividend. The price of the stock has gone nowhere for like 30 years. Now, I just want to clear the air a little bit. On top is the price, right? So it is accurate to say that the price of AT&T shares are where they were in 1993 or whatever it was. But they actually do have to pay a dividend. So the stock hasn't gone or the investment hasn't gone nowhere for 30 plus years. It's flat since like 2015, which is still bad, but it's a big difference. Put a more elegant way. If you're going to build a portfolio of dividend stocks,

Starting point is 00:35:55 I wouldn't start with yield. I'm so glad you asked. Like in absolute terms, like highest yields would not be my criteria. Some of the smartest people we know and talk to about the subject include Meb Faber, Jeremy Schwartz. These are people who build dividend products for a living. None of them are building products, doing a screen. What's yielding over 10%? Okay, let's put them all in a portfolio. So there are more thoughtful ways to do this.

Starting point is 00:36:24 I like dividend aristocrats. I like companies that- Wait, explain that. Dividend aristocrats are companies that have been paying or paying and raising your dividend consistently over 25 years. And those are the types of, that's a strategy that I like

Starting point is 00:36:41 because it's not that those companies can never run into trouble. It's that they've been managed conservatively enough to make it through a lot of economic environments, and they really care about their shareholders over the long term. The other way to do it is to weight a portfolio by dividend growth. So not who's paying the most, which companies are consistently growing their dividend. the most, which companies are consistently growing their dividend. And if you had done that, you'd run into companies like Apple, for example, in that kind of a screen. Check this out. So this is showing the Vanguard dividend growth strategy in purple versus- Wait, dividend depreciation is dividend growth?

Starting point is 00:37:21 Dividend, yeah, same thing. Versus- That's the G is for growth. Versus the blue line, which is the one that we discussed just a second ago. And the orange line, a reasonable benchmark is the Russell 1000 Value Index.

Starting point is 00:37:32 And so to Josh's point, this includes things like Microsoft, Apple, UnitedHealth, ExxonMobil, Johnson & Johnson. None of these are yielding 9% because their stock went down 70%. Put that back up. We don't have the annual yields on these charts, on this chart.

Starting point is 00:37:50 But if we did, you would see that the blue one with the worst performance has the highest nominal yield. Way higher. Yeah, like I said, this thing went 7. What is the dividend appreciation? I don't know. I'm guessing 2.4, something like that, maybe even less. Right. So look, as a general rule of thumb, if it's a REIT or a common stock or a closed-end fund

Starting point is 00:38:13 and it's a double-digit annual yield, as a rule of thumb, A, that's probably unsustainable and at some point they'll cut it. Or B, this is a very distressed situation and And that probably started out as a 4% yield. And then the stock lost two thirds of its value. So the dividend appreciation yields 1.9% or 1.8%. We should say that there are exceptions like business development corporations, BDCs, closed end funds that have built in leverage. Like a lot of New York Stock Exchange is littered with these things where it's a closed-end fund.

Starting point is 00:38:49 They're buying munis and they're using leverage to juice the yield. Those will have high yields. They're not automatically junk just because they have high yields. Don't buy stocks that aren't paying an 11% yield because they want to but because the market forced them to. In the chat, Anthony Ward is reminding us Carl Icahn's company had one of those double digit dividends and IEP. And no disrespect to Mr. Icahn, but it's going to be a long time before anybody sees a return on that investment if they had bought it just because of that high dividend yield.

Starting point is 00:39:21 It's been a pretty rough ride. So not everything that glitters, everything that glitters isn't gold, I think is the best way to wrap that up. Make the anti-case. I would be selling Schrodinger before the earnings tomorrow. Let me make this really clear. First of all, I'm not telling you to do that. I'm talking about myself. I don't own the stock. I was in this a long time ago.

Starting point is 00:39:48 I missed a lot of the run-up. But this is the type of stock that's getting killed upon reporting right now. And they're very dangerous. I don't short stocks and I don't tell other people to short stocks. I think this is emblematic of a type of stock that maybe had a really great first half and things could fall apart in the second half. I don't even know what this company is, so please explain. Schrodinger is an AI stock. It is the preeminent pharmaceutical biotech AI play.

Starting point is 00:40:19 They have three lines of business. The first is they provide the software and the machines, the tools, so that companies can use AI on their own compounds and drug discovery efforts. The second thing that they do is small biotech companies that don't have the firepower come to them and they partner and they'll take an equity stake in that smaller biotech company as that biotech company works to develop a drug using the Schrodinger AI platform. All right. So why are you telling people to short the stock? Very funny.

Starting point is 00:40:53 This stock has had an incredible run because it's AI. And I'm not judging the technology or the pedigree of management or anything like that. This is not NVIDIA. This company is making no money. They're not going to make any money next year either. They are telling their shareholders, do not expect us to. It is highly, highly speculative and it's gotten caught up in this huge AI wave of enthusiasm because it literally is machine learning and AI. So I'm excited. I hope the company cures cancer.

Starting point is 00:41:30 I'm rooting for them. No disrespect whatsoever. From an investing standpoint, I think this is emblematic of the type of stock you're not going to want to be in. Now, of course, they'll report tomorrow. The stock will go up 30% in my face. But I'm just saying,

Starting point is 00:41:48 I would be very careful with these types of stories, and there are more of them. What are your thoughts here? Should we go through the charts? Yeah, please. I don't know anything about the company, so what do we got? Well, I told you. Sean points out that this company is actually increasing shareholder-based compensation, which short sellers don't like to see that. In this economy?

Starting point is 00:42:15 In this economy, while at the same time there is decreasing free cash flow and decreasing earnings, meaning they're losing more money. There's a lumpiness to this company's earnings because they only get paid on where they they have an investment in a in a company and that company has like a phase three trial and the drug gets commercialized maybe they sell their shares so there's a lumpiness to to how the company operates to begin with this is free cash flow quarterly this is negative yeah they don't care and likely to stay negative. See that pop in 2021? That's because of like an asset sale. Next chart. This is EBITDA quarterly. Again, trending negatively.

Starting point is 00:42:55 Wait, wait. Let me finish. Let me finish. Price to sales multiple has tripled off the low. It's 20 times sales. Yeah, this doesn't matter. And biotechs valuations are all over the low. It's 20 times sales. Yeah, this doesn't matter. And, you know, biotech's valuations

Starting point is 00:43:07 are all over the map, but still, they missed their last quarterly earnings estimate. How much stock? I'm not sure. They're expected to post another loss this quarter

Starting point is 00:43:18 and not only an earnings loss, they're expected to have revenue down year over year. They're expected to lose 43 down year over year. They're expected to lose 43 cents a share. And that would represent a year over year. Hold on. Revenues are expected to be 35 million, which is down 8% from the year ago quarter. Sean points out short interest in the stock has doubled since Memorial Day. The stock is up 160% year to date. It is 75% above its 200-day moving average. Yeah, yeah, super stretched. And I think it feels as if-

Starting point is 00:43:57 There's a lot of these is my point. That's what I'm trying to make. Companies that have gotten hurt after earnings are the ones that have had a great run into earnings. So you could be right. And listen, I wish these people well. It's not personal. No, I hope you're wrong because it's always more fun when you're wrong. I mean, I'll definitely be wrong. Mystery chart time.

Starting point is 00:44:19 All right. So we've got two indexes that are extremely similar. And I think I'm going to leave it at that. What do you think? Three years. Three years, John, please. Say this one more time. What is this?

Starting point is 00:44:34 We have two indexes over the last three years. I'm seeing percentage gains. Yeah. And as you can see, they are highly correlated. They're very similar. And we spoke about them today. We spoke about them today. These are ETFs.

Starting point is 00:44:50 These are ETFs. And they're very similar. Is one dividend appreciation? And one the S&P 500? But this might, you're close, this might turn some heads because all the talk this year has been about one, all right, I'll just tell you. It's the S&P and the equal weight.

Starting point is 00:45:14 Oh, that's it? Okay. I got one. But show the reveal. Which is which? Which is which? Oh, purple is equal weight. Yep.

Starting point is 00:45:23 Yeah. Changing character? No, it's only the mega Yep. Yeah. So it's- Changing character? No, it's only the mega. Well, no, it's not. This is the last three years. That's dope. And an equal weighted S&P 500-

Starting point is 00:45:34 Dude, nobody would guess that. If you, like if you, Chardoff, if you sat across from anyone, just based on what they're hearing in the media, and you just said off the top of your head, take a guess. What's outperforming what over the last 36 months? Market cap weight S&P or equal weight S&P? Who would say equal weight? Nobody. Nobody would.

Starting point is 00:45:56 You would just assume, oh, whichever one has the most apple. I wouldn't either. I'd say cap weight. Are you sure? Did you double check that? Are you sure that's right? That's right. So even year to date, the equal weight's doing just fine.

Starting point is 00:46:11 Equal weight's up about 10% this year. All right. Dan McIntyre says, see, Josh, this is how you do mystery charts. It is? Every time you nail it. Give me these bullshit charts. I missed this one. All right.

Starting point is 00:46:23 Hey, guys. Thanks so much for tuning in. 00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00, in the Mike Lombardi interview we did last night about NFL preseason, which starts on Thursday. So make sure you are downloading the podcast as well. Yeah, it does. Wow. Preseason. It's crazy, right? Time.

Starting point is 00:46:51 All right, everybody have a great night. Thanks to John, Duncan, Nicole, Sean, Rob. Great job behind the scenes. We love our viewers, love our listeners. We appreciate you guys. Thanks so much. And remember, new CNBC show, Downtown and Michael Santoli, Friday night at 6 p.m. Eastern. We'll see you there. Good night.

Starting point is 00:47:16 Hello, hello. Okay. Welcome. What do you mean welcome? Hey, I'm doing this. I'm the captain now. Back off. All right. You take it. All right. We are so excited to be joined by Michael Lombardi once again. For those of you who don't know, I'm just going to do a quick bio. Michael is a former NFL coach and veteran football commentator who started his career as a scout for the great Bill Walsh and the San Francisco 49ers. From there, Michael became the Cleveland Browns director of player personnel, where Bill Belichick was head coach. He then spent a decade with the Raiders under the legendary Al Davis, took a trip to the Super Bowl. He then returned to Cleveland as a GM and then reunited with Mr. Bill Belichick in New England as an assistant, where he won two Super Bowls. Michael has worked with Fox, NFL Films, CBS, and The Ringer. He co-hosts two excellent podcasts,

Starting point is 00:48:04 The GM Shuffle and The Lombardi Line, and is the author of the book Gridiron Genius. Michael, welcome back. Thank you, guys. It's good to be here. It's good to be back. Yes, thank you. All right, before we get into the show, I would describe myself as a hardcore, diehard casual fan,

Starting point is 00:48:22 which I think describes a lot of what I mean by that is I love my team, watch every game. I know our offensive linemen. This is Jets. Get out of here. But I don't know schemes, right? I can't look at the... I'm not watching how you're watching, right? I watch through the lens of a fan.

Starting point is 00:48:41 But, and I lay that groundwork to say that when... And we're going to talk about a few things today. So let me just set the stage. We're talking about the running back situation. They are on the decline, their contracts, they're not being valued like they were in the past. We're going to talk about your new book and we're going to talk about some predictions for this upcoming season. Okay. With that said, in 2018 on draft night, when my New York football giants took Saquon Barkley, I tweeted, not sure how Barkley is going to run behind an awful line. Don't like this pick, hope I'm wrong. And I think I was actually wrong in the sense that, trot off please, or tweet off. He did run

Starting point is 00:49:17 behind a terrible line. Miraculously in his first season, he had 2000 all purpose yards, carried a shitty team, but I'll turn the mic over to you in a sec. The reason why I said that is because I was always of the belief, not always, when I tweeted that I was of the belief that great running backs don't make great teams. And as a matter of fact, it's almost the opposite. Why? It's not that running backs aren't important, but there's a cap, right? And there's rules. And so just relative to where these guys need to be to our cap, running behind an offensive line that is good, I thought was sort of interchangeable. And if you look as evidence of this, if you look at, John, chart on please. So we've got

Starting point is 00:49:55 the conference championship running backs. And if you look at the list of these players, next chart please. If you look at the list of these players, yeah, there's some decent players in here, of course, but like Ronald Jones is a name probably most people don't know. Raheem Mostert, even two years ago, Elijah Mitchell. This is the Niners and the Rams, Elijah Mitchell and Dallin Henderson. Are these guys even in the league anymore? And then in the AFC, it was all Mahomes. So we get the point. All right. With that said, what do you think about my read on the running back situation? And obviously, this is what the league thinks too now.

Starting point is 00:50:26 So I'd love to hear your thoughts. Well, I think it's interesting that being on this show, you guys will comprehend exactly what's going on because this is the business that you're in. Our business in football is very similar to your business in investments, is supply and demand. And there's a lot of supply of running backs. So why would I spend top dollar when I can get Elijah Mitchell in the sixth round, who's slightly less than the back that I have, but he's cost me $12 million more?

Starting point is 00:50:58 I mean, we're in a capitalistic system. It was developed by a collective bargaining agreement. And even though the fans and the people on the worldwide leader scream that we have to pay the backs more, basically Adam Smith wrote it in 1700. It's supply and demand. And so let it go. There's no reason to pay them. And your analysis of Barclay was my same same analysis is they are out there. And I think where you're more right than you're wrong is Barkley's inability to impact the passing game is really the difference between what makes a guy you want to pay as a runner and a guy you're not sure to pay. Running the football in the NFL, going back to Bill Walsh in 1984, just allows you

Starting point is 00:51:44 to kick field goals. You got to make explosive plays. The only way you make explosive plays is in the passing game. And because of that, you need to have the quarterback who can throw it and you need a running back. Todd Gurley was on your list. One year he averaged 10 yards a catch. Kamara averages nine yards a catch. Eckler averages nine, six. Last year, Saquon did not score a touchdown passing in receptions and he had an average 5.6. So the dual purpose, we got Debo Samuel who plays running back and receiver. We got Christian McCaffrey who plays running back and receiver. We've got Cordell Patterson who plays running back and receiver. That's the trend where it's

Starting point is 00:52:22 going. It's not going back to 1960 where Jim Taylor and Paul Horning were in the backfield. So do you think though that there's maybe some cyclicality to this where all of a sudden wide receivers are so much more highly prized than running backs and the longer that goes on for, the more likely it is that at some point it could switch? Or do you think this is now just the new way that football is played, the more likely it is that at some point it could switch. Or do you think this is now just the new way that football is played and the sport has evolved and the running back piece is just another portfolio piece and you don't sweat it too hard. You need healthy backs. You don't need the best back. Is that kind of where you think things are going to stay?

Starting point is 00:53:02 I think it's going more towards a hockey line. We need three backs, you know, so we're going to rotate them and we're going to have three young guys, you know, today, you know, Seattle lost both starting running backs. It's Charbonnet from, from UCLA and then Kenneth Walker from Michigan state. And then they, they were going to count on that dual perp. Now they'll come back for the season, but you need more than one. You need two. You need three. I mean, San Francisco, you know, they had Elijah Mitchell. He got hurt.

Starting point is 00:53:32 They have all these backs that they interchange. And I think because there's so much supply out there. I mean, look, Damian Pierce gets drafted in, what, the fourth, third or fourth round by Houston, and he's a really good player. And as long as they're out there like that, why would I invest in all this money into Barkley? The draft has always been about draft what you can afford to buy. Simple economics, right? We got to draft the left tackle. We got to draft a pass rusher. Some teams like to draft corners because you can't buy a corner. And teams have been drafting receivers, and we've seen the receiver market get completely inflated because it's hard to find receivers.

Starting point is 00:54:11 Because receivers, there's a lot of margin for error on receivers from college to pro because college doesn't play press coverage. Pro does. They've got to get away from it. It's harder to judge. We'll see some receivers who make you know, make, make the jump and some don't, but I think ultimately this is not changing this running back. Now, what I would say is if I were a running back, I would ask to, in college, I would ask to play receiver too. Just to get those reps. The Debo Samuel role is going to become a bigger and bigger role.

Starting point is 00:54:43 What'd you think about the Zoom call? is going to become a bigger and bigger role. What did you think about the Zoom call? That was a wasted time. For those watching, a bunch of high-profile running backs got together on a Zoom call and said they have each other's backs, whatever that means. I think it was Saquon McCaffrey, Najee Harris, and – But none of these guys were going to not play.

Starting point is 00:55:02 Right. Let's not pretend Saquon scores 15 touchdowns a season or, you know. Yeah. So, I mean, unless Jim Irsay was on the Zoom call, I mean, unless those 32 owners are on the call. But forget the owners. This is collectively bargained. I mean, this is a free market system. The reason and the system is predicated based on the same system that's predicated on

Starting point is 00:55:26 yours. You can find certain companies and that's why there's too many companies in this way. So the value don't go up. When there's only one company, all of a sudden everybody's bidding on it. I mean, it's the same thing. It's why Daniel Jones is making $40 million a year. Nobody thinks Daniel Jones is worth $40 million a year, including Daniel Jones. Sir. No, nobody does. Even you, Michael, don't. But you got to pay him $40 million because the quarterback position in the NFL is very similar to the basketball, that so-called franchise player in basketball, you know, the Bradley Beal, who's really good. And if we don't have him, we're going to suck. But he's never going to be good enough to get us where we want to go, but we got to have, uh, so, uh, not to belabor the Saquon point. This is 2020, uh, hindsight, Nick Chubb went 32 that year. Yeah. And we just,

Starting point is 00:56:16 we just had so many other needs. That's why I was not too thrilled with the pick. All right. So the, the league is going in this way, John, throw up this chart. Teams are spending less on running backs. Uh, here it is. And it's not And it's not for any other reason that this is business. Running backs peak generally between ages, I don't think it's like 22 to 25, something like that. And not that they're interchangeable, but they're not the most important piece. It's the line. And if you have a good line that can create space, all these guys are talented and they all could run for the most part. Some are a little better than others, but that's what I mean. Dalvin Cook, one of the top running backs of the last, he's actually been pretty dark. He got injured a few times, but he's a free agent. Can't find a buyer.

Starting point is 00:56:55 How about last year's Super Bowl? I mean, Edward Tucker sitting on the sideline next to Andy Reid and Pacheco from Rutgers is the starter, seventh round pick. I mean, they're out there. And so what your chart says is very, very symbolic of what's going on. But deeper than your chart is this. 24 receivers since 2015 got second contracts. All but four of them lasted through the second contract. The life expectancy, the juice in their lower legs goes. It's unfortunate. It's the hazards of playing the position. Now, Henry's an exception to the rule. Nick Chubb's been an

Starting point is 00:57:30 exception to the rule. Eckler's an exception to the rule. There's some guys that are, but for the most part, I don't know why we're crying. It's an economic system that has way too many players in it. There are too many good running backs. Next year, the draft will be filled with them. Everybody made fun of, I mean, as good as B. John Robinson is, the ninth pick in the draft, like you just mentioned, Chubb went 32. The Patriots took Sonny Michel before Chubb because everybody was worried about Chubb's knee. Everybody thought Chubb's knee was going to hold up. Oh, and he's gone, by the way. He retired today. Michel did, but Chubb, the reason everybody loves Michel more than Chubb was because Chubb had that knee injury in his junior year, sophomore year, whatever it was, and they weren't sure he's

Starting point is 00:58:10 going to come back. I mean, it's a hell of a pick. And Pierce in the fourth round, that's a hell of a pick. He didn't even play at Florida, this kid. This kid didn't even play. He didn't even play. Dan Mullen wouldn't put him on the field, and he ends up going the third round. Do you think that, so I agree with you that this is not, and not Josh's question of this, has the pendulum gone too far? This is secular, right? Like the data is what it is. I don't see a fix for this, but do you see not immediately, but maybe in five years and 10 years, as kids start to get wise to the fact that running backs don't get paid, are they going to migrate or is running back still going to be the sexiest position on the field?

Starting point is 00:58:45 No, I think they're going to migrate to be in the dual purpose back. I think you're going to see more of it. I wrote this in Gridiron Genius. I truly believe we're going closer to a two quarterbacks. This single wing is going to come really back. So who would that be? But well, back in the twenties and thirties, you know, like there were two, two, they had two quarterbacks on the field.

Starting point is 00:59:04 You know, one guy would take the snap. The other guy would run with it. They were both running backs. Essentially they could throw it. They didn't throw it. The ball was like a, the ball looked like one of those, you know, blown up balloons, you know, who could throw it. And so, but it, you know, who's got it. I mean, I could see a time in the next five years where you have two players like Jalen hurts to minimize the quarterback from getting hurt. So you're playing them all at the same time. I do like that play where Saquon takes the direct snap. I don't, I don't, I don't hate that. I don't know if they have to pay an extra to pull that off, but if he could throw it really effectively, like if you had, if you had somebody who could,

Starting point is 00:59:43 yeah, if you had somebody that could throw it, you know, that really could, like if you had Anthony Richardson and another guy like Anthony Richardson, all of a sudden, who's the quarterback? Who's the runner? You know, it becomes a little bit. I think this, look, the one thing we've seen in the NBA, and the NBA is a little bit of a trendsetter. The way the players can switch from three to four and they can play four, they can play three, they can play two. Well, the NFL is getting to that. McCafferty got his money because he could play slot receiver and be the running back. That's why he got paid 16 a year. Now it was a, it was a bad contract for Carolina. It's a good contract for San Francisco,

Starting point is 01:00:15 but when he was in Carolina, I was complaining about that contract. Is it likely that, is it likely that many teams will be able to find a, a good receiver running back combo, uh, player, and then that's how the pendulum swings back. Yeah, I think I, well, I think what Michael said is true. I think these kids are smart enough to say, Hey, I want to learn to be a receiver. When we've, when I first started in the draft, uh, working in the NFL in 84, we there, the position of running back receivers were moving to running back. Charlie Taylor, if you remember him, old player from the Washington Redskins, he wore number 42.

Starting point is 01:00:52 He was a running back in college. They moved him to receiver. And we would always tag a guy in the draft room that was a running back or a running back in high school or a running back early in his collegiate career because when they got the ball in their hands as a receiver they knew what to do with it they were much better and so I so there were so many receivers running backs that were moving to receiver I think you're going to see some of that and go back and forth I mean look the Patriots were the team that put Cordell Patterson in the backfield. Do you remember that? I mean, he was just always a receiver. Nobody really,

Starting point is 01:01:29 because he's impossible to tackle. So I think we're going to see kids start to do more of that. And the high school coaches will start to do more of that. So not, I think we're beating this into a pulp, but just one last stat. So this is from the ringer. No Superbowl winning team since 2013 has paid its leading roster more than two and a half million dollars. You got a finite pie and it goes to the quarterback. It goes to the people that protect the quarterback and the people that sack the quarterback. One of the flip sides to the running back, the demise of the running back is sort of the demise of the middle linebacker. Like the Patrick Willis's of the world, the Ray Lewis's of the world, and the Urlacher's like, they don't really exist anymore.

Starting point is 01:02:03 Right. Because now they're rushing the quarterback they do in this sense where I think we've lost all touch of reality here because we don't get this from the TV commentators is there's no longer first second or third down in the NFL right first down was run second down was run pass third down was pass okay that's that doesn't exist anymore. Every down is passed. So a linebacker has to be able to play against certain groupings on the field. So if you're a linebacker who could only play against the run, you're a dinosaur. You're done. You can't play. Like the guy in the Steelers, uh, uh, uh, Kirk, LeVon Kirkland. He would never play today. He would have a hard time

Starting point is 01:02:42 unless they played him as the fifth rusher and just rushed him all the time. Like people said, when I finished football, done right, my new book, you know, what do you do with Willie Lanier? What do you do with Dick Buckus? Well, you know, they're physical enough that they could be the fifth rusher coming in and really beating up the running backs. There's a place for those. But the only the value linebackers have today is when you can't personnel group them off the field. So if I'm in 11 personnel, one back and one tight end, I don't come off the field, I'm a good player. But if I can't play against that personnel group, I'm not a good player.

Starting point is 01:03:19 So Michael, you've got a new book coming out. Tell us about it. It's called Football Done Right, Setting the Record Straight. What's this about? What was the inspiration? When does it come out? This is your second book, got a new book coming out. Tell us about it. It's called Football Done Right, Setting the Record Straight. What's this about? What was the inspiration? When does it come out? This is your second book, right? Second book, yeah. So a good friend of mine who I worked with at the Raiders kept saying, you know, you should write a book about along the lines of what Bill Simmons wrote about in his book

Starting point is 01:03:38 of basketball. You know, like set the record straight on what's going on. And I've been perturbed quite a bit about the Hall of Fame, about how it's become too politicized, how it who can carry the Southern primaries or the reason why they get in. It's not based on. I mean, Sterling Sharp is one of the best receivers ever to play. He only played seven years. So they say he can't get in the Hall of Fame. Well, Tony Buscelli just played seven years and he's in the Hall of Fame. Terrell Davis played six years. He's in the Hall of fame the Terrell Davis played six years he's in the hall of fame like how do we have these double standards

Starting point is 01:04:08 Marty Schottenheimer's won 200 games as a NFL head coach 200 there's only nine people on the planet earth that has won 200 regular season game regular games two only nine out of the 514 that have called themselves head coach he can't get coach. He can't get a sniff. He can't get a sniff into the hall of fame. Now he's up on this committee, but he won't make it. They won't, they'll say, well, he didn't win a Superbowl. Oh, he didn't win a Superbowl, but George Allen's in the hall of fame. He lost the Superbowl, had a 70% winning percentage, but never came close to the amount of wins. Like, tell me what the, what the protocol is. So this book is about, I evaluate the coaches,

Starting point is 01:04:49 trying to understand where every coaching tree comes from. Because there's five universal trees in the league. The next step is I evaluate the top 10 coaches. And then I set a criteria for what should get into the Hall of Fame. Like, and then why do some guys not get in the Hall? Like George Seifert, for example. Two Super Bowl wins, 65% winning percentage. But what happened to him was he went to Carolina and he didn't do well. So his second stint is killing his first stint.

Starting point is 01:05:13 You follow me? How important is how you end your career versus the meat of your career? I mean, that's what people remember. I wrote about that. It's like precedents. I mean, when they leave office, if they're popular, they were great president. And then 50 years from now, we write about how bad they works presidents, you know, or if they were unpopular when they leave office, then we write about what a jerks they are. And then 50 years from now, we're right,

Starting point is 01:05:36 man, that guy did a lot of good things, right? It's always about the perception. And unfortunately for the hall of fame, it's all based on perception. Nobody's in the rooms arguing, And unfortunately for the Hall of Fame, it's all based on perception. Nobody's in the rooms arguing. They're arguing against one another with just throwing numbers around. When you say it's political, what do you mean exactly? What are some of the deciding factors that might be categorized as bullshit? Well, you get so many writers that come in the room.

Starting point is 01:06:00 They want guys from their team. They want guys from their town. They're fighting for their guy. We've got to get my guy. We've got to get another guy in here. We need this player in. Instead of looking at it on a blank slate, there's no objectivity to it at all. So if Sterling Sharp had a, if the Packers had like a real true owner, like other teams, would that be a, that would help him a lot. And if he had some beat writer that was really pushing them, you know, I mean, Clark judge helped get Bobby Beathard in the hall of fame. There's no denying that, you know, and Bobby, Bobby Beathard won titles. Go ahead. I'm sorry,

Starting point is 01:06:29 Josh. No, I was going to say though, I've heard you argue, uh, like looking at the NBA guys like Doc Rivers seem to be coaching for a hall of fame spot. Uh, and, and therefore whatever they do in the playoffs looks alien relative to what they've done in the regular season where they're trying to rack up wins versus losses. Isn't that the opposite problem? Yeah. Would it be worse to have a coach so focused on Hall of Fame or those types of accolades that it comes to the detriment of whatever the team is trying to accomplish? Yeah. And sometimes you have owners like that.

Starting point is 01:07:05 I mean, sometimes you kind of get that, that the legacy, you know, when I worked for Al at the end of his career, he was protecting his legacy. He was, you know, he was trying to reinvent his legacy again. That becomes that hall of fame thing gets in the way of a lot of decisions. It gets in the way of the purity of the decisions and you don't think clearly. And so this book, so I take us through that. And then I talk about the impact of the draft and television. Really, you know, television, the NFL was made by TV.

Starting point is 01:07:34 We know that it was perfect for television. It's perfect for sports betting. But I think three people don't get enough recognition. And it just shows you how bias sets in. The three people who really impacted the sport the most were Howard Cosell, Brett Musburger, and John Madden. And two of the three don't even have a Pete Rozelle award for the best broadcaster in the year. They don't even have it. I mean, Cosell does it and Brett Musburger don't either. And Cosell made Monday Night Football. I mean, he made Monday Night Football. I mean, he made

Starting point is 01:08:05 Monday Night Football. There were three networks. We all grew up with it, right? There were three networks. And so CBS had Gunsmoke. They had Andy Griffin. They had I Love Lucy. They weren't interested. NBC had Rowan and Martin. They had other shows. They weren't. So ABC took it, and Rune Arledge was smart to put Cosell in the booth because he started a conversation that 50% of the switchboard hated him and 50% of the switchboard at ABC lit up. And it became must watch television. I mean, Monday night in America back in 1971 was bowling night. People wanted the bowling was huge.

Starting point is 01:08:40 People were going to bowling leagues. And all of a sudden now, Monday Night Football became the in thing. That was huge. So in the book, it seems like you are able to right some wrongs and maybe set the record straight about some things that you hear people repeat just because other people have said them. Let's talk a little bit about the present and future of football and what's in the book for the modern football fan, just in terms of how things go these days, maybe in ways that people aren't aware of. I think partly, you know, I read this book Belonging by Owen Eastwood and it talks and Owen is I'm wearing the New Zealand Blacks, All Blacks firm tonight in honor of them.

Starting point is 01:09:25 But they have a great sense of belonging, that team. They're really part of their history, their culture. And I think what the book, what I want the book to do is try to set the record straight that what happened in the 40s, the 50s, and the 60s could happen today. Those players made this league, and we've got to honor those players. And it becomes a sense of belonging when you honor the past. I really feel like to not have Joe Montana as your top five quarterback is an injustice. To think that only the current players are the best players.

Starting point is 01:10:00 To me, we owe it, I owe it, to people to try to educate them on how good Johnny Unitas was, how great Dick Buckus was, how Night Train Lane was unbelievable, and how Larry Wilson did this, and then, you know, other coaches created this situation. I mean, if it wasn't for Paul Brown, we wouldn't have coaches. Paul Brown was the Bill Gates of the NFL coaching trees because he developed the software for all the coaches that they still use today, not technically on the computer, but scouting, advanced scouting, all the things that we do. And if we don't honor that, like, and I think the NFL does a really bad job of this. Like, why don't, why isn't the coach of the year award the Paul Brown award? You know, why isn't the Coach of the Year award the Paul Brown award? Why isn't the

Starting point is 01:10:45 combine the Al Davis combine? We don't honor it. And so what happens is we lose sight of what made this league so great. What is it? Is it the Tostitos Coach of the Year? I think that's what it is. It could be the Paul Brown Tostitos.

Starting point is 01:11:01 I just think we lose sight of what makes it so great. Why don't we all want to watch the Masters? You know, why don't we all, because they have such great tradition and they sell tradition. You know, I know the egg salad sandwich is another part to everybody wants to go down there. But the reality of it is, is we know the course, we know the history of the course, you know, those two things. And we honor the history. You don't hear anybody saying Bobby Jones can't play golf at the Masters today. You never hear that. I think the NBA does a really great job. And matter of fact, they just named a bunch of awards after former players. I heard, I think that, correct me if I'm

Starting point is 01:11:39 wrong, the Super Bowl did more revenue than the entire NBA playoffs. Yeah. Did you know that? Well, the ratings, I mean, the NBA, I believe the NBA just laid off 60 people in our offices. I mean, it's not a good thing in the NBA right now. The ratings this year, the NFL Super Bowl, I think it was a 115.2 million homes. And the NBA finals was in 13.2. It was the first time there's been a hundred million home gap in that. Huge gap. And yet, and yet the contracts, again, for reasons that are sort of obvious, like the

Starting point is 01:12:11 physical part of it, look wildly different. The owners, the owner situation in the NFL and the NBA could not be more different. Matter of fact, speaking of that, I believe you grew up a Redskins fan. What do you, what do you think of what's going on there? Is this, is this a good thing? I mean, it can't be bad that Dan Snyder was the absolute worst. Well, no, no. George Preston Marshall was the worst.

Starting point is 01:12:29 I mean, we don't talk about that. He's in the Hall of Fame. That's before my time. Right. But he wouldn't allow black players on the team until 1960. Bobby Mitchell. I mean, there was a period in the NFL where there were no black players until 46. And so Preston Marshall was really responsible for that.

Starting point is 01:12:43 But look, Dan Snyder, I really wanted to do, I want to do, maybe we should do this pod. I've been wanting to do a pod about, you know, the series that they run, How I Built This. Yeah. I think the best thing that really, I think that's a wonderful thing to listen to, but we learn more from How I Destroyed This. He made $5 billion between purchase and sale. Can you believe this? When I read the number, I double-checked that I couldn't believe it. Right.

Starting point is 01:13:13 And he did it all on a string and a prayer. I mean, literally. So what is the message beyond that? Well, he used litigation as his powerful tool that he would sue. I mean, he's in business you guys know howard milstein he would he and howard milstein were supposed to buy the team together originally this whole thing started because jack kent cook wouldn't sell the team to his son wouldn't give the team to his son he made it go to bid and that created this fiasco and then they got snyder involved and snyder they changed the lending rules to let Snyder in. And then he just

Starting point is 01:13:45 systematically destroyed. This was a team that had great history. It was unbelievable. And he just started to run it like a fan, a bad fan, and he destroyed it. And yet he gets rewarded with $6 billion, $5 billion. I mean, so he pays the 60 million. I mean, that's a deck chair off the Titanic. Yeah. It's wild. I wanted to make, it's wild. Um, I wanted to make sure that, uh, we have some time to talk about, uh, Aaron Rogers and the jets for like, from my perspective as a football fan, but not like, you know, incredibly in depth on everything. When I talk to people about football, this seems to be what everyone wants to talk about. I'm from long Island. So you can understand that. Sure. Are people too

Starting point is 01:14:25 excited or not excited enough or is it too early? No, I think the enthusiasm is justifiable. I mean, the guy did not play well last year, but he's a typically, he's a really good player. And the Jets are a team that was a good team without a quarterback last year. Now, the second half of the season when they went- Or maybe the worst quarter. Actually, worse than not a quarterback. Well, the other part about the Jets, too, that I think that gets overlooked is their defense only created two turnovers over the last seven games of the season. So they didn't help their offense either. But more than anything, the offense hurt them. There's no question. And they needed to make changes. They fired Michael Flohr. They changed their O-line coach. So there's a lot of reason to be enthusiastic about the Jets. Now, my question is, is it goes back to your industry,

Starting point is 01:15:09 just like everything in the NFL goes back to business. Can we become great all of a sudden, or do we need to be good to get to great? And I think there needs to be a little bit of a, let's lower our expectations. Like when Brady first went to Tampa, they weren't playing very well at first. And then eventually they became great and they got better at the end of the year. I just hope the Jets manage it better than that, because if they start out with that tough schedule and they're not playing their best football, what's going to happen? Is it going to fall apart? And they're going to need the leader to kind of hold it all together.

Starting point is 01:15:41 And that's going to be their head coach. John, can we throw up this chart of 2023 over under? These are for the win totals. I got this from FanDuel, which I'm a huge fan of. Here's what jumps out to me, Michael, and I want to get your take on this. So what this shows is this is the over under for the win totals for next year.

Starting point is 01:15:59 You can bet the over, you can bet the under, and the lines are skewed. That's probably too much in the weeds. But anyway, all right. The New York Jets, as we just discussed,, and the lines are skewed. That's probably too much on the weeds. But anyway, all right. The New York Jets, as we just discussed, nine and a half wins. So there's tiers. There's 11 and a half wins, 10 and a half, nine and a half.

Starting point is 01:16:12 That's where the Jets live. So I think that, not I think, the betting industry is expecting a lot of wins from them. They jump off the page to me, and so do the Saints, at nine and a half wins. Because what, Derek Carr? I don't understand this one help me figure this out well Carr I mean look Carr did not play well last year no matter how you want to slice it I mean I my son's the offense coordinator so full disclosure but when you just watch the tape I mean he missed a lot of throws didn't he didn't play to the level that he played a year before so I think you know they're counting on him to rebound.

Starting point is 01:16:48 And do the Saints, are they good enough on defense? I think there's always those sucker plays on those wins. When it looks too easy, Michael, you stay away. Let's take the Steelers, eight and a half. Mike Tomlin hasn't had a losing season. He's a really good coach. He's really a good leader. They played well last year.

Starting point is 01:17:06 Second half of the season, they were as good as the Detroit Lions, right? They were as good as the Detroit Lions. They only had five turnovers all in the last nine games of the season. They ran the football more effectively. Their defense, when Watt came back, was better. And now they're sitting at eight and a half. I think Mike Tomlin will win more games. I think Washington, with a new owner, at six and a half. Now, I know all those six and a half teams have questionable quarterbacks, but Washington's talent. I mean, they were the best third down team in football last year.

Starting point is 01:17:32 They played really good in the red zone. They're a really good defense. If they don't screw it up on offense, they shouldn't win seven games. I mean, my Lord, that's not that hard. So I went through the jet schedule.

Starting point is 01:17:44 I didn't, I didn't see it as a top. The giants seem to have a tougher hard. I went through the Jets schedule. I didn't see it as a tough – the Giants seem to have a tougher schedule. I mean, you figure the Jets will lose to Philadelphia. They'll lose to Mahomes. I'll take those from them. Well, they played the Dolphins twice and the Bills twice. Yeah. And everybody counts out the Patriots because –

Starting point is 01:18:00 Guilty. Everybody just counts out it even though – Nobody's afraid of the Patriots now. Nobody's afraid of them because as Asante Samuel said, it was Brady that won all of it. Let me ask both of you to a question here, you know, in Superbowl that the first Superbowl that Brady won in new England, how many yards did he throw for in that game against the Rams? I think it was like 150 or something. 134. They rushed for 133. I think it was like 150 or something. 134.

Starting point is 01:18:24 They rushed for 133. So my point was bringing that up is, is yeah, you need a great quarterback and he was great, but the three elements have to work together for you to win a title. The three elements have to work together. They were great on defense. They can, they,

Starting point is 01:18:39 they forced seven turnovers in the two playoff games, the divisional champ, the conference championship and the Superbowl. They created seven turnovers. So you got to have all that. And for any team to get over their window, they have to have all three. And that comes down to the head coach, making sure that all three units work together. Right. I'm so glad you said that. Football's the only sport. Football's the only, well, not the only one, but it's very few. You know, in your job description in football, and you're the offensive coordinator of the Jets, Nathaniel Hackett's job is to get first downs,

Starting point is 01:19:11 score points, and, you know, keep the ball, right? The defense coordinator's job is to stop them from scoring, stop them, you know, create turnovers and stop them from yards. The only guy whose job description says winning matters is the head coach. So it's his job to manage the three units so that you do everything in your power to help your team win. Or else you'll have a guy who gets a lot of yards, but you don't win games. Were you surprised that Sean Payton said what he said about Hackett given that? No.

Starting point is 01:19:41 Why? Because I think he wanted to put the onus on him. I think he flipped it. I think he wanted to say to everybody on on him. I think he flipped it. I think he wanted to say to everybody on his team, I got your back and I'll, I'll take the bullet because when shit falls apart here, everybody will look to me and that's what I want. I want everybody to blame me if it doesn't go well. Back to, uh, back to Aaron Rogers, you have talked about culture a lot. And I don't think when most people think about culture among NFL teams,

Starting point is 01:20:06 they think of the jets. Yeah. Um, can, is, has, is the culture there sufficiently prepared to actually take what they're being given and, and do something with it? Like throwing a superstar into a non-culture usually doesn't work. Yeah. I guess it could, but I'd love to hear what you think. That's what that's me most concerned about. That's why I said we've got to get – I mean, when Sala came out and said we're one of the six or seven, again, he didn't look back on history. So since Namath made the prediction, the Jets have only been to the playoffs 13 times. Since Namath made that prediction in 68, You know, they haven't been to playoffs since 2000. This is not an organization that's just draped in winning or understands what it

Starting point is 01:20:50 takes to win. And so when he makes that statement, he's basically saying we can cut all the corners and you can't cut the corners. Like he should be downplaying it. He should be saying, look, we've got a lot of work to do. We've got a lot of work to do. We can't, you know, we're not any good yet. We haven't beaten anybody just because we've got Aaron Rodgers, we haven't beaten anybody, but they're taking the other approach. And I've not seen that approach ever work. That's what worries me. They don't have much time though. It's a 39 year old quarterback. But he can say that publicly, that he can say what I just said publicly, but he's got to drive the team. I mean, the leader of the team has to make everybody better.

Starting point is 01:21:26 What team are you most excited about this year, or what do you think is going to be the biggest surprise to the rest of us? I think Cleveland's really a good team, and I think that Deshaun Watson cannot play as bad as he did last year. I just don't think that's possible. I don't think he got that contract because all of a sudden he was bad. You know, he just, I think they're really good. I think coaching matters in the NFL. I think Jim Schwartz will really do a good job defensively. And I think they'll be able to rush the passer. I think he'll help Kevin Stefanski as a head coach. I know it's a tough division because you got Tomlin in there and he's good. And then you got Harbaugh at the Ravens. So I think that's, that's a team. I think Seattle is better than people think.

Starting point is 01:22:06 I mean, they started two rookie tackles last year. Their defense has improved in the offseason. They've had a really good offseason. I think they'll catch somebody. I mean, I don't think the Rams are, I know the Rams are not very talented, even though they think they can come back from it. The Cardinals are going to go through a rebuilding.

Starting point is 01:22:20 So you have a chance there. Wait, Michael, pause. I want to ask you about the Cardinals. So they have the lowest over under, it's four and a half wins. The next lowest is six and a half. So that's a pretty big gap. And in that group, it's the Texans, the Colts, the Rams, the Bucks, and the Commanders. I actually bet the over on the Cardinals, not because I think they're good, but I went through their schedule and they've got four really, really easy games. I'm not out of division. I'm not even talking about the Rams. I know Colt McCoy is,

Starting point is 01:22:48 he's a backup, right? That's what he is. But four and a half. That doesn't stay healthy. He can't, he doesn't stay healthy. That's the problem. Four and a half games,

Starting point is 01:22:55 they're going to win four? Three? I mean, they could. The Bears won four last year with Justin Fields who everybody thinks is going to be the MVP this year. So, like,

Starting point is 01:23:03 I think it's hard. I think it's going to be hard. They're not very talented. That was a really bad job. Now, when Murray comes back, you think they could win who they throw on the ball to, you know, how are they going to stop people? And then they're going to get behind, you know, they're going to, to me, the Cardinals are going to be what I call a good 50 minute team. They'll play probably good for 50 minutes, but then it will fall apart. So much like the Texans last year. Probably good for 50 minutes, but then it will fall apart. So much like the Texans last year. You mentioned head coaches a few times, uh, much to my chagrin, or maybe I guess I like

Starting point is 01:23:30 that, that nobody expects much from us and New York giants. And my estimation of one of the top five head coaches in the NFL and Brian Dable, and they've got us at seven and a half. They got the foul. I know it's a different division. Falcons at eight and a half. Yeah. Well, I think a lot of that is because, you know, make us different division. Falcons at eight and a half. Yeah. Well,

Starting point is 01:23:45 I think a lot of that is because, you know, make us feel better. No, I don't know. Please, please tell me. I think the schedule is more challenging this year.

Starting point is 01:23:52 Right. And, and look, let's be clear. You're a giant fan, but if you watch that Eagle playoff game, you're down 28 to nothing before that, before you can even move.

Starting point is 01:24:02 I mean, we were, we were outmatched. We were lucky to be. That's right. That's right. That's right. You're completely outmatched. And that's the point.

Starting point is 01:24:07 Have you closed the gap? And I don't know if they've closed that. Not between us and them. Well, but San Francisco, have you closed the gap on them? Have you closed – I mean, I think the NFC is a little bit of a disparity because there's two really good teams. Three, count the Cowboys.

Starting point is 01:24:24 You didn't really come – The Cow when cooper rush played the quarterback that was a six six game with with three with three minutes to go in the third quarter and all of a sudden you know you go up 13 to six on the big run by barkley but then if they they come down the field detroit detroit didn't make the playoffs detroit beat them last they killed us yeah yeah they were i mean i think a lot of it is the giantsants were fortunate with the schedule. I think Brian has to have his best coach. Last year, he did a great job of managing the game, keeping himself in the game in the fourth quarter,

Starting point is 01:24:54 and finding a way to win it. That formula worked last year. They're going to have to alter that formula, and I think that win total is a reflection of can they alter that. But look who Danny was throwing to. Like Richie James, Isaiah Hodgins. So he brought in Waller, the rookie. I'm drawing a blank on his name,

Starting point is 01:25:10 who allegedly ran 24 miles an hour today. Jalen Hyatt. And Lendale Robinson, who tore his- Who was hurt last year. Yeah. So we got some weapons coming back. And the line should be better, but they still have to-

Starting point is 01:25:22 Who are they going to cover? People. I mean, I just think they're a draft away. I mean, they were in really severe cap problems, and they've kind of managed it through. We'll see. I mean, I think Dexter Lawrence is outstanding. He's a really good player, but they've got to get better at linebacker.

Starting point is 01:25:36 Can they? We'll see. Hey, Mike, let's tell everyone a little bit about your podcast where they can hear from you more often, and then we'll let you go enjoy your night. So I love your show. Thank you. I love your – what's your host name?

Starting point is 01:25:52 Your co-host. Femi Abebefe. Femi is great. Yeah, he's great. He hasn't watched all the Sopranos yet, but I'm giving him shit for that. But, I mean, he's good. You guys have a good – you guys have a good spiel. Yeah, and he lets me rub on him a little bit too.

Starting point is 01:26:05 You know, he's such a fan. He's a Cowboy fan. He can't help himself. And he loves everybody. You can't love everybody in this league. You've got to kind of have to make a stand. But he's tremendous. And CM Shuffle, we just did a show Monday, Thursday, all through the season.

Starting point is 01:26:19 And then I do a Lombardi line, which is on VESA, which is owned by DraftKings. We do that on the DraftKings network and then on V-CIN on YouTube, where you can listen to it as we're on a zillion terrestrial radio stations throughout the country. How excited do you get right now? Like as we're, as, as the season is coming up, are you, are you super stoked? I'm really excited. I mean, I love the fact of, I love the building the team and then seeing what you built, does it work?

Starting point is 01:26:44 And then evaluating, I think we get so caught. seeing what you've built. Does it work? And then evaluating. I think we get so caught. It's no different than any other business. You want to build something and then you want to see what it goes and how it progresses and the development of it. And then partly, which to me, the strategy of it all is what do you need to do to fix your team? Like, what do you need to do to correct the mistakes or what five or six moves do you need to make to fix it? And those things kind of go over, look, cause we're not filming a Hollywood movie here. I mean, it's not going to go perfectly. You know, it's going to be rough.

Starting point is 01:27:12 That's the jets thing. It's good. You're going to get some Rocky roads. How do you handle it? And then the leadership, the leadership thing to me is so compelling because if you have a great leader and a great coach, which all one in the same, like Mike Rabel at Tennessee, you'll find ways to win games. Absolutely. Well, Michael,

Starting point is 01:27:31 we love following the season from the perspective of a GM. It's a really cool idea that you had for the show. We'll be listening. I hope all of our fans add it to their rotation. Let's throw the book up one more time, guys. This is football done right by Michael Lombardi. When will this be out? September 5th. No, it'll be out September 5th.

Starting point is 01:27:50 Yep. Okay. So that perfect timing. Yeah, man. Congrats on the book. Thank you, Michael. Thank you so much for your time. Hey guys, make sure you like, subscribe,

Starting point is 01:28:00 leave comments, do all the things. We have been spending our night tonight with Michael Lombardi. Make sure to check out his book, his podcast. We will see you all later this week. Thanks, Michael. Thanks, guys. Whether you're just getting started as an investor or you're managing a multi-million dollar portfolio, Ritholtz Wealth Management has the solution for you. It all starts with building the right financial plan. To speak with a certified financial planner

Starting point is 01:28:29 today, visit ritholtzwealth.com. Don't forget to check us out at youtube.com slash the compound RWM. Make sure to leave a rating and review on your favorite podcasting app. If you love investing podcasts, check out Michael and Ben every Wednesday morning on Animal Spirits. Thanks for listening. Ritholtz Wealth Management is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients

Starting point is 01:28:59 or prospective clients where Ritholtz Wealth Management and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. Nothing on this podcast should be construed as Thank you. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk and possible launch of principal capital. No advice may be rendered by Ritholtz Wealth Management unless a client service agreement is in place.

The Compound and Friends - Gangsta's Paradise

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