The Compound and Friends - How To Find the Biggest Winners

Episode Date: January 5, 2024

On episode 124 of The Compound and Friends, Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown are joined by JC Parets and Joe Fahmy to discuss: a preview of what's to come in 2024, charts that break it all down, how to find winners, a Bitcoin ETF, and much more! Grow your cash at an industry-leading 5.1% APY with a high-yield cash account at Public. Go to: https://public.com/thecompound Check out the latest in financial blogger fashion at The Compound shop: https://www.idontshop.com Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Josh Brown are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. Wealthcast Media, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information. Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here: https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/ Transfer offer terms and conditions: https://public.com/disclosures/brokerage-bonus-offerAll investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for alternative assets are offered by Dalmore Group, LLC, member FINRA & SIPC. Cryptocurrency trading services are offered by Bakkt Crypto Solutions, LLC (NMLS ID 1828849), which is licensed to engage in virtual currency business activity by the NYSDFS. Cryptocurrency is highly speculative, involves a high degree of risk, and has the potential for loss of the entire amount of an investment. Cryptocurrency holdings are not protected by the FDIC or SIPC. Brokerage services for U.S. Treasury accounts offering 6 months T-Bills are through Jiko Securities, Inc., member FINRA & SIPC. Banking services are offered by Jiko Bank, a division of Mid-Central National Bank. Securities investments: Not FDIC Insured; No Bank Guarantee; May Lose Value.ETFs, options, Bonds through Public Investing, alternative assets, cryptocurrency, and 6 month T-Bills in Jiko treasury accounts are available to US members only. See public.com/#disclosures-main for more information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Dude. I can't believe you bought charts. How great is this? Fahmy, Batnik, JB, talking charts. We might be peaking too early in the year. This might be the best show of the year, and we're doing it the first week. Dude, you got Joel Fahmy to come into New York City? I feel like he's allergic to New York.

He doesn't want to ever come. Keep the expectations low. Unless there's a concert, he won't come to New York. You don't like New York? No, I don't mind. You used to like New York a lot. I lived here long enough. Yeah.

I'm over it. I'm sick. I'm over it, too. Why are you guys such haters? New York is such a great place. No, it is. It's good. I'm here, you know what? I'm here two days a week.

It's perfect. It's all I want. Yeah. So. You're here more than me, but. I ate at John George's restaurant in, you know, we did the the whole like Fulton, South Street, Seaport area. So they have this thing called Pure 17, which has the concerts on the roof. So there's a lot of nice restaurants in that building.

They're all empty. Probably not on the weekends. I couldn't believe it. It's a John George restaurant. It's out of the way. There's three tables filled out of, I don't know, 200 tables. It's far down there. Because nobody works there. That's three tables filled out of, I don't know, 200 tables. It's far down there. Because nobody works there.

That's what it is. Yeah, that makes sense. If you work in the financial district, you're probably not going to schlep across the FDR. But if you live in the city

to go down there like on the weekend, it's nice. I used to do that. It's really nice. It's actually one of my favorite neighborhoods in the city.

It's very quiet. Yeah. It's locals walking around, skateboarding, riding bike, running, going to... I love it there.

It's like one of the last links to the 1700s. It's pretty cool. Those buildings have been there for hundreds of years. You know it's owned by a private corporation? I did not know that. It's the only neighborhood in New York City that's not owned by the city. It's owned by the Howard Hughes Corp., which I think Bill Ackman sits on the board of. So those streets, technically,

are privately owned. Really? What about fundamentally? Hey now. You know, they maintain it pretty well. You can see the history there. It's really cool. Boston's got a ton of those kind of streets and neighborhoods and stuff. There's a bar down there

called Francis Tavern. So that's, I think like George Washington used to get f***ed up there. neighborhoods and stuff fairly there's um there's a bar down there called francis tavern oh yeah so that's i think like george washington used to get up there he took he took the second constitutional mayflower the constitutional guys the second one hold on no this is real it's still the troops there true story all right no i'll tell true story. So I met the kid Alex, the founder of Morning Brew at Francis Tavern. Yeah. He's like, tell me about your business. And I'm like bragging to him that I have like an RIA and all this shit and like websites. He's like, oh, that's cool.

Like two months later, he sold Morning Brew to Henry Blodgett for $500 million or something. So I remembered back. I was like, oh, I sat there and talked for an hour about my RIA and my blog. And this kid was negotiating with Aquell Springer and Business Insider. So that was an L for me. Here, this still exists.

Place is cool. If you're ever visiting New York, go check it out. New York's oldest and most historic bar and restaurant. Never heard of it. 1760. Yes, you have. Francis Tavern? Look at this sign.

Yeah, man. You know this sign. You've walked by it a million times. Every time you go to Stone Street, it's like the next block over. Yeah. George Washington gathered a group of his officers there nine days after the last British troops left American soil. John Adams did cut them in. And got f***ed up.

That's amazing. They, uh... John Adams? Was there Sam Adams there, too? They were doing, uh... That's Boston. That's Boston, bro. Come on.

Whatever, sorry. They were doing vodka chambord shots, it says. So, that's pretty cool. Uh, all right. Welcome to New York, Joe. JC, welcome back to my city uh we're gonna go out to dinner after this dude i just went to a kosher omakase they have that that's what i said no crab um i guess not now that you mention it definitely not no shrimp no ebby no shrimp no

that's a good point none of those things a lot of tuna salmon uh campachi yellowtail um we even had like the you know the eggs the fish eggs and stuff like that it was good

what made you go there are you Jewish now no I just got I mean kind of yeah right um I know the feeling

yeah um I just I got this thing that I just I just want to find the best omakases in New York City and I'm just not going to stop until I just want to find the best omakases in New York City

and I'm just not going to stop until I do. That was on the list? Is that on somebody's list? Didn't you do it last time you went with Tommy Lee to one of these places, right? Yeah, down in the middle. Tommy Lee? Tommy Lee, not the drummer.

From Motley Crue or Tom Lee? Tom Lee. Our analyst friend, yes. Yeah, yeah, okay. Yes. Not the same guy. Last time I was here, but that's just kind of what I do.

You love the omakase. So Fahmy was going to come with me, but he didn't because he was too busy. I was busy. Dude. Some of us work. Putting on some hedge trades. I was working it. You should ask this guy.

I was crushing it, dude. Markets are open. What do you want from him? Are we good? I placed a trade. I bought Pfizer. I'm in. Oh, Josh likes Pfizer.

I missed it. You guys have my slides. Nobody cares about your slides. Yes. Thank you. We got everything. Listen, don't be in. Oh, Josh likes Pfizer. I missed it. You guys have my slides, right? Nobody cares about your slides. Yes. Thank you. You got everything. Listen, don't be hating on us. Josh!

Shut up. I love Josh. Nicole, what show is this? Come on, friends. Episode one. Come on. Welcome to The Compound and Friends. All opinions expressed by Josh Brown, Michael Batnick, and their castmates are solely their own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of Redholz Wealth Management.

This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions. Clients of Redholz Wealth Management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. Today's show is brought to you by Public. Josh, did you know that the 10-year treasury, right now, Thursday, January, 4.47 p.m. Eastern Standard Time, the 10-year treasury is yielding 4%. I don't even get out of bed for 4% anymore. The two-year is yielding 4.385%. That's more like it.

You know what you can get at Public on cash? What? 5.1%. Annualized. Okay. And full-d1% annualized. Okay. And full-discount annualized. But still. But still.

5.1% on cash. How do you do that? Is it public.com or the Public app? You go to public.com. They make it super easy. I'm a customer. Josh, you're a customer as well. Yeah.

No fees, no subscriptions, no minimums. Transfer, withdraw your cash as often as you like. And, and, and $5 million FDIC insurance. Wow. All right. Public.com slash the compound coming through us. It's cooler that way. This is a paid endorsement for public.com 5.1% APY as of December 20th, 2023, and is

subject to change. Full disclosures and terms and conditions can be found in the podcast description. High-yield cash accounts are available for U.S. members only. 124. Solar. Guys, I think we might be peaking a little bit too early in the year. I'm a little worried. This might be our best show that bit too early in the year. I'm a little worried. This might be

our best show that we're going to do in 2024. I'll tell you at the end of the show, and I'll give you guys permission to not listen again until next year. With us today, one and only, Michael Batnick. Round of applause for Michael

Batnick. Welcome back. Thank you, boys. Thank you. Returning fan favorite, Batnick. Round of applause for Michael Batnick. Welcome back. Thanks, boys. Thank you. Thank you. Returning fan favorite, one of our favorite market prognosticators, real trader, real dude, Mr. Joe Fahmy, ladies and gentlemen. Let me give you your official intro. Thank you for having me. Joe is an advisor at Zor Capital, a New York-based investment advisor firm. Joe has 27-plus years of trading and research experience, has appeared on CNBC, Yahoo Finance. What's the plus?

Wall Street Weekly at 27 years and how many months? Cartoon Network. Don't forget Cartoon Network. Cartoon Network. Joe, thank Cartoon Network. Cartoon Network. Joe, thank you so much for coming back. Thanks for having me. Love you guys. Yeah, man.

And right across from me, ladies and gentlemen. Chartmaster Flex. He needs no introduction, but he's going to get one anyway. JC Peretz is the founder, chief strategist for All Star Charts, a technical analysis research platform for hedge funds, RIAs, family offices, central bank investors. JC Peretz, ladies and gentlemen. Sushi chefs. Omar Qasi. All right, let's start this way. Last year was an amazing year for most risk assets. Up 50% on the NASDAQ, 25% S&P 500. Bitcoin went up 150%.

Even bonds eventually started to rally toward the end of the year. It was really hard to not make money last year. By the last week of December, every stock I've ever heard of was going up. Like there were stocks going up 10% on no news just because they were down all year. That was like, Michael and I framed this earlier this week.

That was an as good as it gets market, right? Like the stove was so hot, drop an egg on, it's cooked in one second. Any money you put in the market is up the next day. Those periods of time tend not to last very long, but they also don't necessarily need to signify a top. Do we all, can we all agree to that? No, it actually signifies the exact opposite, right? Yes.

Yes. Strength leads to more strength. So what you're referring to is what, you know, if you quantify your- It's a bread thrust. That's exactly what it is. We have like a one month bread thrust. And it's less about, oh, it's the Zweig breath thrust or the Wiley breath thrust. And then everybody's got a thrust.

It's less about that and more about there's a lot of thrust. There's a lot of thrust. And somebody in my inbox called it a stock market pre-epism. You know what that is? No, I do not. Why don't you Google that while I finish this conversation? Don't say out loud, though, when you find the definition. We'll let the folks at home do that.

All right, so here's a question. What will it take to get bearish?e let's hold on why are you just stopping this breath conversation it's really important hold on you can't just throw out listen all right you had you had a religious read it it was a relentless amount of buying pressure and what your experience was in that particular period, when you quantify is that there was the most amount of new highs that we had seen in years, right? So what you were observing, you can actually quantify and see that. Now, when you go back and see, well, how does the market normally do when that sort of thing occurs? that is consistently an early cycle behavior, right?

So the last time we saw that sort of behavior was actually in the spring of 2020, right? So it was off the lows, but then you got that breath expansion. This was that. So historically, it's early in cycles. Now, short-term, it tends to lead to some short-term corrective action.

That's also pretty consistent. But when you zoom out, that's early. I brought all the charts I brought that you don't care about, all the charts that I brought. No, I do. I do too. Don't be hating on Farming. Literally adding to what he said.

So we shared a chart last week that, JC, you would like. And I've been giving you lots of flowers saying that, to quote JC, how can an overwhelming amount of demand for stocks possibly be bearish as if prices crash from all-time highs? We know they don't. But the chart to show like, yeah, we're extending the short term, 90% or 80% of Russell 2000 stocks were more than 5% above their 50-day.

That is like very, very, very stretched. So short term, yeah, we're probably going to burn some fat off, work it off. But longer term, this is not bearish. We have to go back to why. There's no evidence that historically ever that it is. Right. Strength leads to more strength. And there were a lot of rare events.

But we have to go back to why and what caused the strength. It was the Fed completely shifting policy. Yeah. Because the strength in November and the strength in December was Powell signaling that they're done with this interest rate hiking cycle and confirming it in December. And the market doing a total shift from five, five and a half Fed's fund rate to the market's discounting mechanism, prices, what's going to happen six to nine months from now, shifting to, what, three and a half, four percent by the end of this year. So, Joe, if we believe that, I do believe that story. Like, that was a huge turning point in the market. People just stopped talking about rate hikes after that.

That being said, if we believe that that end-of-the-year rip is due to that, then maybe that could be the seed of its undoing. And ADP this morning far exceeded expectations on the jobs number. Like could that – but the stock market didn't react negatively to that. Even on the South the last two days, the VIX is at 13, it's snoozing. No, but to your point, after the big strength, you digest it. After a big Thanksgiving meal,

you sit on the couch sideways, digest, little pullback, whatever, at least that's what I do. And then more strength later. But you got to be patient, let it digest. Are you still seeing as many setups, though, that look promising from a trading perspective as you did, let's say, December 15th, 16th, 17th? Yes, but in new sectors.

Yes. You agree with that? And pullbacks. So you want, after a big run, you want to see how things pull back after something makes a big run. You don't want to see it give it all back. If it gives a little bit of it back on light volume to a logical support level

of moving averages for people who use the technicals, I'm seeing a lot of that. Do traders using technicals, can they just shift to a new sector that starts working like as simply as it seems like they can? Absolutely. So that's what's very different from fundamental investors. There's always rotation, right? No, but like, like let's say I say to somebody who's fundamentally driven, the sector that they've made money in all last year, tech, and then this year all of a sudden there's another sector in favor. They don't shift to industrials. My bet is that there will be.

My bet is technology probably underperforms. My point is fundamental people, it's harder for them to be like, okay, I'll become a bank expert now because the XLF is ripping. Good. Technical people can make that shift in the same day. Yes. Stock is a stock. 05, 06, all I owned was housing stocks when there was the Toll Brothers.

Now these transitions in sector. That was the wave. But remember, it doesn't take a day. It's not just one day. No, but you see it develop. And when oil went from 50 to 150, that's what did well in 07, was everything commodity related. So if you are able to adapt, you have to 150, that's what did well in 07, was everything commodity related. So if you are able to adapt, you have to accept the market's always changing.

So I think my point is people that tend to view the market through a fundamental lens, for them, they're going to switch sectors because another sector is having a lot of earnings growth or it's more in favor. It's like, well, what are the things that matter to these stocks? So if we're trading REITs, it's, it's AFFO adjusted funds from operations. It's not earnings per share. If we're trading media companies, they trade on cashflow, not earnings, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. That seems like a harder shift. Now factor in interest rates. Now, right now factor in the million qualitative things that I know you don't give a shit about, but it seems like some of them, the ones that matter.

Fair. It seems like it would be harder to make that shift than to say, hey, look, this sector has 80% of its components breaking out. Like, I will now shift to being involved with these stocks technically. Yeah. So, I think that's— Historically, leadership and sector rotation, it always changes on every new cycle. JC, when did the bear market end? When did the last bear market end?

In June of 2022. So we're 18 months in. What? I'm answering for— June of 2022? Yeah. That's when all the stocks bottomed. Last January, a year ago,

we were talking about the bull market. That's right. Yeah. Technically, the S&P bottomed in about the bull market. That's right. Yeah. Technically, we're already six months into the bull market. October on peak. There were no stocks still going down by October. Almost nothing. So June had the highest number

of stocks still making new lows. That's how you're dating it. And then just go back and see. Most stocks were already, people were talking about how 2022 was such a bad year. The second half of 2022 was a fantastic year. It was fantastic.

Everything was going up. Not for large tech. Except for large tech. But a lot of those- And then you got rotation at the beginning of the year in tech. That's exactly what

farming and soccer were. And a lot of them topped before the market fell apart in the beginning of 2021. February of 21 is when the market peaked. By the time the S&P made its high at the end of 21,

nothing was still going up. But JC, you wouldn't have said though in July of 2022, okay, the number of new lows looks like it peaked. Therefore, we're now in a bull market. There's like an in-between phase before you know definitively. Of course, we were looking in July

and your anecdotal evidence that you were just saying about how like, you know, everything's going up and all these stocks are going up. At that point, there was just bad news every day, bad news every day. And every day we were saying, why aren't these stocks making new lows? Why aren't these stocks falling? Everyone has a different definition. Some use his definition. Some use the actual index definition. Some use a follow through day. Some use 10% off the low. Some use 20. Some use a new high. It's, it's, I like Livermore's definite, just uptrend or downtrend.

Keep it simple. Right. So the downtrend is not over when the bear market necessarily ends. You have to, it takes time. Most stocks have ended their downtrends already. The indexes that are cap weighted might still be going down,

but most things are already on their way back up. So in 2009, for example, March of 09, the index has bottomed, but nothing, there were very few stocks still going down by March of 2009. Most stocks bottomed in October. Fewer stocks made new lows in November. And then by March of 2009, there was nothing left.

Can we get back to my original question though? So what would you have to see, whether it's internals or price action or some combination of the two? It sounds like from Joe, you would need to say the Fed pivoting. This is it. The Fed pivoting to maybe we're not cutting. The Fed pivoting or just a lot of technicals. I use key moving averages that statistically where the institutions support them. I don't really care about – I want to interpret what the big institutions are doing.

The big institutions control the market, period, end of sentence. So my opinion, his opinion, your opinion, like no one's opinion matters. It's what, you know, the big institutions are doing, the pension funds, hedge funds, mutual funds that are moving billions of dollars. So I want to interpret what they're doing as simply as I can through price and volume. And as long as they're supporting the market at key levels, I'm going to stick to it. But how are you watching them? What does that mean exactly? What do you do? Like 10-week moving average on the S&P or the NASDAQ. That's a key level. On your individual stocks or on the index?

Both. Both on stocks and the index. And longer term, people use the 200-day for longer term. It depends on your time frame. But a good medium time frame, historically, statistically, you'll see a lot of times institutions supporting it at that level. Then when we break below it, that's usually when the institutions get defensive. So I know that in a certain tape, you just will be away from the screen.

Yeah. Because it's almost like to me— The wind's in your face. Instead of like you described November, December, the wind was at your back. Yeah. When the wind's in my face and institutions are selling and every—instead of buy the dip, it's sell the rip. So that's what separates professionals like you from like ordinary traders. By the way, he's good at recognizing that because he's defined what exactly that means versus, oh, that lady was scary on TV today.

Time to go to cash. You can't do the same thing every time. It's Druckenmiller. Know, like wade in the water and know when the fat pitch is coming. But that takes skill. That takes a lot of everything. So when he sees a fat pitch, he'll step it up. And he'll also decrease when he doesn't see it.

The reason that always resonated so much with me. Like if you talk to like professional fishermen, he knows what time of year to go out. He knows how deep to go out and when. Perfect analogy. There are times where there's just no reason to go out. A lot of retail traders don't understand that concept. They think you wake up,

turn on CNBC and start f***ing trading. Every day. Wait, that's not how to do it? Well, I mean, I suppose in your first year, you think that there's an opportunity to trade every day. Sometimes longer.

So, all right. So, there are periods of time where you just say like, this is a target-rich environment. I need to be in the market right now. But that's the answer to the question. Why does it matter

whether it's a bull market or a bear market? Who gives a shit, JC? Just trade what's in front of you, right? The reason it matters is because you have to decide how to allocate your time. Should we be spending more time looking for stocks to buy, or should we be spending more time looking for stocks to sell, or should we be in Hawaii with Fahmy or in Vegas at a concert? Like just not doing anything. Druckenmiller said in a recent interview, what I love about him is he basically said, look, I'm a junkie.

I love the markets. And then you hear him say this and you're like, one of us. One of us. I love hearing it. Batnick high five the air. Yeah, yeah, yeah. But he knows when to shift gears, which a lot of people don't have the skills or the ability or the experience.

Discipline. And the experience. Discipline. And the discipline. Discipline. People want to trade. So he knows when, hey, I'm a junkie. I want to make my money back. Let's say,

I normally trade 1,000 shares. I'm a junkie. I know it's not a good environment. I'm going to trade 50 or 100 just to feed my demons that he basically, I'm like, love hearing it

from one of the best. You know what? He leaves his line in the water and he puts his pole down. But when it lines up, he's going to go 1,000. He might even go 5,000 shares. Because when you're in the market, you feel the bite. Right. So you got to But when it lines up, he's going to go a thousand. He might even go 5,000 shares. You feel the bite.

So you got to always maybe be in it. So that's why he's been able to stay positive is because he's able to, it's like to your point about most retail beginner traders, it's always the same amount every time. Druck is managing his own money now too. So like, in other words, he can go small in a certain market environment. He could always add, you could always add. It's harder to take away. Yeah.

So if he's not big enough, he can get bigger. And then if he's not big enough and he misses a move, it's his own money. He doesn't have to answer. He's the greatest one. Here's what separates Druckenmiller from everybody. When I'm at the blacker table, I think like most people, when I'm winning, I'm cautious, which is the exact opposite. And when I'm losing, I'm like, f**k it, I'll bet more. That's the exact opposite. That's the exact opposite. And when I'm losing, I'm like, f*** it, I'll bet more. That's the exact opposite.

That's the exact opposite. But that's how most people behave. Can we cut that out for social media? I feel like that's going to be really helpful. That's how most people invest and gamble, is you press when you're losing. But you're recognizing that, and that's the more impressive part of the whole thing.

Like, you're very, you know. To have the discipline, the skills, and to recognize the period and have the discipline to shift, that's what makes him one of the best. Yeah. Let's do some charts. Let's do it. We have charts from both of you guys.

I'm so excited. JC. So I want to do something here. All right. If you guys don't mind. No. So I have a few charts that we could discuss, and I think they're important, and I think we all can weigh in on them. And then I want to do just like a hard hit,

you know, just like one after the other, no comments, just go. Lightning round. And then we can talk about it afterwards. I'm so excited.

All right. So not to like tell everybody what we're doing here, but is that, if that's all right with you? Well, we might have to say something

during the lightning round because this is a podcast. No, but just going to rip through it. All right. We'll say some things, but we're not going to do that fast. We might have to at least say what's on the screen.

Okay, okay, okay. Or do you just want oohs and ahhs? Tickers only? Something? Let's discuss. JC, you've got the mic. All right. So let's, people are like,

well, JC, technical analysis only looks at the past. It's like, well. Who do you think he's imitating when he does that? Kind of himself? I don't know. No, it's somebody. He still sounds like JC. It's people. You? I don't know. No, it's somebody. He still sounds crazy. It's people.

You definitely have somebody in mind. No, not necessarily. Sometimes, not necessarily. Everyone has that voice. No, Shazza thinks like us. You have somebody in mind? I do. All right.

Anyway. All right. No matter who you are, you're stuck with information from the past. Whether you're a technical analyst or a fundamental analyst, economist. I know people who look at the stars and the moons. Yeah. They're looking at the past also. Everybody.

Okay. So let's start there. And coming into this year, it was the first year this century, I think since sometime in the 90s, that Wall Street strategists came in with a consensus that S&P was going to fall this year. Right? If you only knew this one fact, we should have been all, like everyone should have been all.

Brian Dietrich posted this at the end of 2022. Talked about it on this podcast. This was incredible. Really quick. In hindsight. If you're a Wall Street strategist, you can't lose your job picking 6% to 10% for the year. That's right.

That's your real job. Yeah. So the fact that all of them had that, and by the way, coming into this year, 19 strategists have an average of 4,800 on the S&P. Right. Which is basically-

Where it is right now? 1.6%. Which is a flat year. Give me a break. So I'm just, interesting, go ahead. Guaranteed that won't happen. What? Plus 1%.

But you just said, if we knew that now, we know already what they're thinking for this year. It's going to be a muted flat year. So this is what actually happened. Not bad, right? One for the record books. Best first six months of the year in the history of the nasdaq incredible uh 50 50 spot on the queues man but this was one of the running joke that we had all year was its positioning like how do you explain joke it's not a joke the positioning going into 2023 at least

from a wall street strategist recommended allocation point of view, was insanely out of position. And the institutions that follow them. Yes. We have the data. They follow them. Yes. They're all in cahoots. All right. That was an incredible start to a year. Okay. And here's the result. Just proving psychology moves the markets. Yeah. The market fools the majority. This whole thing is one big giant psychological shift that took place over 12 months. Human behavior never changes. One of my favorite Livermore quotes, stocks come and go,

human behavior never changes. The same fear and greed that existed 100 years ago exists today and will exist 100 years from now. Only faster today. True. Now see what these folks did

six months later. So this is, by the way, these are the returns going back to October. So this is, which is I think when you should, is are the returns going back to October. So this is, which is, I think, when you should, is a good time to pivot. October 22.

Yeah, October 22. Versus just arbitrary year-to-date returns. October was the CPI down 1,000 points on the down and then closed positive. That was one of the rare days. Down 2.5, up 2.5. Wild for the day. That was sick.

So now look what they did in six months later. So they actually came into the back half of the year with the most pessimistic outlook on record. Okay. When is this? This is June of this year. In the middle of last year. In the middle of last year. They came out with the second half and they were the most pessimistic on record.

So they actually, this is after the best six months ever in the history of the NASDAQ. They were still, they doubled down. They doubled down. Now you have to understand, there was a lot of concern about Signature Bank at the time. That was March. It sounds so stupid when you say it out loud. That was March. Nobody had ever heard of these little banks. Who gives a shit?

I don't understand why they cared so much. There was a lot of concern about First Republic. Alright, the second half was, the last quarter of the year was incredible. Second half was fun. The last quarter of the year was one of the most was fine. Yeah, the last quarter of the year was one of the most blistering. So we had a really shitty, actually.

We had a really shitty August and September. Which is perfectly normal seasonally. Which, by the way, happens all the time. October stabilized. And then November, it was just like, it was like somebody flipped a switch. Powell said they're done. Right, and all these people

that were under-allocated the whole year, it was like, all right, buy Nvidia. It was a little bit of everything. I don't know. So the sentiment at the end of October on certain sentiment measures was almost as bad as October of 22. Unlike NAIM and some other ones and all the other acronyms, whatever, which tells you it's amazing how a three-month 10% correction,

August, September, and October of 2022, made people more negative than a nine-month bear market in 2022. Oh, I remember that. Yeah, the sentiment got really dark. Black Monday was the trending on Twitter. August, September, October of last year, 23, a normal 10% pullback. That scared the shit out of everybody. We broke out in May and retested it technically,

and it was a normal retest. A part that I blame us. We put Grantham on. That was a great interview. Honestly, that was one of the best interviews we ever did. He was amazing. But that was during that time. And he obviously was pessimistic.

There was reasons to be negative, but between the Fed shift and all the pessimism, and seasonality, it was the perfect storm. The Equal Weight and the Russell 2000 were both down on the year on November 9th. And then they finished up

like 18%. Just a sick run. Yeah, but internals had already, were well on their way higher. That's what I love what he watches. In fact, that month,

the new lows list peaked on October the 3rd, which is the exact day that the US dollar peaked. So the dollar was actually falling. Emerging markets were ripping all of October.

So while he's absolutely right about the pessimism at the end of October, if people, if those, if those people would have just taken the time to go look and see what the stocks were doing, Microsoft was up seven and a half percent in October. The work he does on the internals, like really that's ties the room together, really ties the room together. It does. Okay. No, It ties the room together. Really ties the room together. It does. Okay. No, it's great.

And then to Fahmy's point, so then here we are now. So market, since the beginning of the S&P 500 in 1957, the S&P 500 averages over 10% return a year. And these guys, after whiffing this year, now they're only expecting 1.6% for next year. That's like a cop-out. They're like, what's the S&P now? All right. As long as they've been doing this,

they put 6% to 10%. You just throw 6% to 10%, you can't lose your job. JP Morgan's super bearish on the year. I think Deutsche Bank has the high target. And then in the middle, there's a lot of firms hovering right around where we closed the year.

It skews pessimistic on the banks. The banks tend to be more wrong than maybe some independent strategists. Okay. Yeah, there's like one Super Bowl at a firm I never heard of, Capital Economics, who's at like 5,500. But that's the high target.

There's nobody even near him. Almost everybody is hovering right around him. It's always a firm like Peretz Fahmy and Prince Street or something. Peretz Fahmy. Hey, I like that. I don't hate it. I don't hate it. We're starting our own firm.

So anyway, as Fahmy already mentioned. I didn't know you had this slide, but thank you. We look at the same thing. All right, but keep going because this is all Fahmy stuff. I wanted to include Fahmy type stuff here. Consumer sentiment. This is after a monster year. Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ all close at new all-time monthly closing highs.

Highest monthly close ever. European equities all over the world making new all-time highs. Consumer sentiment incredibly. How is University of Michigan sentiment so low when the team was undefeated? I don't get that. Have you spent any time there? They're doing this sentiment in the dead of December in Michigan. What is it?

It's the Ann Arbor Housewives Survey. What do you think they're so pessimistic about? Hang on. They're not only polling people in Michigan. I don't know. I'm teasing Michael. No, but Chris, people don't care about the data. They care about rent and gas.

They're literally calling people on landline phones. Do you care what the opinions are? They care about the wrong things because the data is very consistent. They're pessimistic at times that it's great to be buying stocks. First, I think the people answering this survey continues to skew older and older. So what? Second, I think they're answering these questions politically. So what?

This is an audience that's either watching Fox or MSNBC. Great, so what? It's still consistent. So what? Maybe. I don't know. Listen, I'm not a survey guy. When these people are angry, it's great to be buying stocks historically.

True. Period. But what if they're not angry about anything that has to do with stocks? For the record, it's one data point. There's a zillion reasons why investors do things. But this is an interesting point that, by the way, adds up with the other things we're seeing. It's not like this is coming out of left field. It's putting them all together.

Sensitivity in general is in the dumps. Sell-side strategists, institutions. We could talk about the record cash levels. So this is more interesting to me. This is a composite of all of these things. So tell the audience what's in this composite and why it matters. So it's the American Association of Individual Investors, AAII, which tends to be the most erratic

and most short-term sensitive, which probably makes sense. Whatever the market did last week, that's what the... It moves the fastest. Yeah, yeah. So people can jump to the gun a little quick with this one

and be like, everyone is bullish. Eh. It's the most volatile one. I like to use a moving average. Then you've got the Investors Intelligence, which are the advisories.

Then you've got the Investors Intelligence, which are the advisories. Which is an oxymoron. Then you've got NAIM. Right. Investors Intelligence. Oxymoron. I'm here to add value. You're here to add value. The NAIM is much more powerful when they're pessimistic.

They tend to be optimistic during bull markets. Yeah. So it's more powerful when they're more bearish. Same thing with AII. Sentiment measures are more accurate on the bearish side than the bullish side. If there's a lot of bulls, that's not necessarily sell everything. If everyone's bearish, you got to buy something. Right.

Absolutely right. Definitely. You know, the VIX put call ratios, just adding the quant stuff in there. In other words, it's what people are doing, not so much what they're saying. And we're not, we're in the middle. All right. So we had the fat pitch in the fall, and now we're sort of in no man's land. Wait, what should this be doing?

Should this be, should this be rising with the market? By the way, it's smoothed out for four, it's four weeks smoothed out also. So this will turn up. When is this? Well, by the way, this means this is, if the lower it goes, the more optimistic people are, the more risk there is.

The higher it goes, the more pessimistic there is, the more opportunity. So you could see last year. So this isn't even outrageously low yet. That's my point. It's in the middle, which brings me to my quote from my favorite Long Island guy ever. Walt Whitman. Throw it out. Jerry Seinfeld.

Oh, me. Oh, look at this. That's great. What did I say? Read it. I don't want to read my own quote. What kind of quote? JC, read it. Tops are a process, bottoms are an event, and middles

are a motherf***er. Yeah, I was really... That was 2012? It sounds like Tracy Morgan. Yeah, that was good. That was really good. Right, that sounds like something Tracy Morgan would say. That's a true quote that I said. What do I mean by that? I don't even agree with most of it. Tops are a process.

Why is it your favorite quote? Wait, what do you disagree with? Tops are a process. So are bottoms. They don't even agree with it. So are bottoms. So I don't disagree. But the point here is that middles are a motherf***er.

The hardest thing. When you're middling. Like 2015, 2016. I have more quotes. Because most of the time things are not bottoming or topping. They are middling.

Think about the middle. That's true. I actually remember writing about that. Look at the sky. Do you remember what was going on in 2012? We hadn't yet hit

the old highs of 07 yet. It was like March of 13. The S&P 500 didn't do that until 2013. But everybody was calling the top because of how far it had run. And it's like, why is this a top? I don't know. It went up a lot.

That's the logic. Because by that logic, it's always at a top after it goes up. It's not always topping. Also, people just had their recency bias that the great financial crisis had just happened. Yeah. Just like now we had the COVID and the other things, right? The recency bias is amazing. The recency bias that the great financial crisis that just happened. Yeah. Just like now we had the COVID and the other things, right? Recency bias is amazing.

The recency bias is a mother****. And go back and go back. Don't do this, but hypothetically, go back and read financial columns, not blogs, columns like the FT and Wall Street Journal.

Go back and read what they were talking about in 2012 as the market was racing back to the old highs. They were talking about Greece and Cyprus. was racing back to the old highs they were talking about greece and cyprus like every hour of the day they were live blogging greek finance ministers um where wearing a lav mic into the urinal like what does the splash sound like one of the olsen twins marry one of those was it maybe the french guy that's always a top when the olsen twins get involved like lance armstrong topped very right yeah i mean's always a top. When the Olsen twins get involved, like Lance Armstrong topped very, right?

Yeah. I mean, that was it. Once the Olsen twins are in the picture, I think you want to be making sales. So, yeah. Or Kardashian or Nicki Minaj. No, there was like a high-ranking Greek. I don't know.

I think it might have been a Frenchman. I can't remember. Yeah, I'm totally making all this up. No, one of the Olsen twins married a French businessman, which is also an oxymoron. A Parisian businessman, right? I don't know. John, edit all this out.

Yeah, we can just piss off the entire crowd. All right, so just want to kind of set the stage here real quick. So this is the breath thrust that you were just describing, Josh. So this is just an example. These are the percentage thrust that you were just describing, Josh. So, this is just an example. These are the percentage of stocks above making three-month highs. You know,

highest that we've seen in years. These are the things we see early on in cycles. So, the conversation we were having before. What is the significance of a 63-day new high? It's three months.

It's three months. That's three months? Average of 21 trading days. So, this is the percentage of stocks at three-month highs. Wow. It hit 50%. Yeah. When is that? At the end of the year? Right at the percentage of stocks at three-month highs. Wow. It hit 50%.

Yeah. When is that? At the end of the year? Right at the end of the year? Yeah. That's higher than even anything in 2020. Yeah. That's wild.

I mentioned this to Michael. Kramer opened up the new year on CNBC that morning, just basically like, find something and sell it. Like, when it gets this hot. Take a little off the table. And it sounds like rule of thumb-y and we hate that stuff, but I remember him in 99

talking about, he used to talk about this, this diner by the Holland Tunnel because he lived in Summit, New Jersey. He used to come into Wall Street and there was like a diner and you'd stop there for breakfast. He used to talk about the,

the griddle was like 500 degrees. It was so hot, like you crack an egg and have to scoop it off immediately after. The market does go through periods of time where it gets like that. I don't know of a better way to measure it other than two things. This, the percentage of stocks making highs

on any timeframe. And then the second thing is just like looking at the slope itself of the index. Like when you have a parabolic move, again, it's not a top. It could definitely be a good reason though. Go two slides next. To have less exposure.

Go two slides next. This is what Josh is talking about. So it's 5,000 points in two months for the Dow. So, right. And I would imagine if you pull this back like to a three-year chart, it's still noticeable. John, go up one. There it is.

Yeah. So, I'm not saying it's a top. I'm just saying, like, we should maybe calm down a little bit. That's reasonable. Well, I'll show you. So, transports still haven't broken out. Go next, John. To the trannies.

Yeah. So, they haven't broken out yet, right? But it looks constructive. Doesn't look bearish. Doesn't look top-y. We don't do trannies. All right, but I do. No, no, no. I think they're very important. No't look bearish. We don't do trannies. Alright, but I do. No, no, no. We don't say that word. We say,

I'm telling you, transports. Or transportation Americans. Got it. So homies? I can't say homies either? No, you can say that. They don't like when you say trannies. I'm telling you, on TV, the old school guys were still saying like, take a look at the trannies. It's transports. Really? Yeah, you're going a look at the trannies, transports.

Really? Yeah, you're going to get us all f***ing canceled over here. All right. You guys pinched. You guys all pinched. Well, look, go next. I don't know about all that, but here's what you're looking at. So this is a lot of growth, a lot of tech, you know, right, Foms?

Time to digest. 50% of the NASDAQ is technology. 30% of the S&P 500 almost is technology. We're back to those former highs. Seems like a logical level for some of these indexes to digest, but doesn't mean that it's a sell-everything market. There are still things that can do well, even if tech is consolidating, right?

Absolutely. That's not concerning for you, though, like when you see us get turned away at those old highs? No, I have a slide on what a cup with handle is. What a cup with handle is everyone who bought at the previous level, and it comes all the way at those old highs? No, it's what, I have a slide on what a cup with handle is. Okay. What a cup with handle is, everyone who bought at the previous level and it comes all the way back around and you ever say that prayer,

like just get me back to even and I want to get out. That's what creates the handle or sellers around that time. So you wait for sellers to dry up and then you take out the highs. So you don't, right. So as long as you're not retracing

back down to the bottom of the cup itself, you're okay. No, yeah. As long as it's like in the upper third. Okay. Yeah. So you think that's the setup now in January? I do.

Yeah. That's what I think is going to happen. Maybe even the first quarter. Yeah. Maybe even longer. Where the gains are in the second half of an election year. Yeah, which makes perfect sense. But it doesn't mean that there won't be stocks doing well.

I brought a slide on that too. Look at the equally weighted index now outperforming the cap weighted index at the same level that it started doing that back in 2000. You'll be so proud of me. I shared this chart. This exact chart was a mystery chart a couple of weeks ago. And what are your thoughts? And Josh goes, would you buy this chart? I said, probably not. But it looks good. It looks pretty good now. It looks pretty good. So what this means is think about what's in the equally weighted index. Think about what's in the cap weighted index. The cap weighted index is going to have a lot more tech growth. So if the equally weighted

index is outperforming, it's not a breath thing. It doesn't mean like this year, the equally weighted index was underperforming. People were like, Oh, that's because the market's about to crash. It's like, no bro. It's because the cap weighted is loaded up with tech. This year you mean 23. Yeah, 23. Sorry. Hey, Jesse, look, I made this chart. Loaded up with tech. So it's underweight information technology,

the RRSP by 16%, the communications by 5%. That's the whole thing. It's a whole kit and caboodle. It's overweight, significantly overweight. Everything else. Industrials, real estate, utilities, materials. Right. Everything else.

Of course. And then you can see what's really going on here. Over the last couple of days, you've seen some rotation, but this rotation started a couple of months ago. Walk us through this. What are we looking at? So on top, we're looking at small caps versus large caps, right? Russell 2000, small caps versus Russell 1000, large caps.

What a bounce. Declining pretty much all year, last year, and then equally weighted, underperforming cap weighted until the last couple of months. And then this is really just an extension of things like industrials versus tech. You know, tech mostly being the denominator there. You can replace the numerator.

That looks good. XL can replace the numerator. That looks good. XLI over XLK. That looks like it could do some damage. What are the stocks moving the XLI? Well, none of them, actually. Because the XLI is very diversified. There's no stock that represents more than 4%. They almost just throw everything into the XLI that's left over.

Yeah. Because it has transports. And staffing companies. Yeah. But then it also has transports. And staffing companies. Yeah. And truckers. But then it also has manufacturing. Yeah, these things look good. Engineering.

Cat Honeywell 3M. Yeah, we'll get into it. But it's really anything but these. Oh! Hey, now. I like this. Wait, why? Why'd you get so excited about this?

It's a good chart. So the folks at Roundhill came up with their big tech ETF in April of last year. And on November the 9th, they decided to change it directly to the Magnificent 7. What was it called prior? ETF. It was called the Roundhill Big Tech ETF. Okay. Now it's the Magnificent 7 ETF as of November the 9th.

And this is a ratio of that particular ETF versus the S&P 500. Right on schedule. Right on schedule. More like the lag seven. Yeah. is a ratio of that particular ETF versus the S&P 500. Right on schedule. Right on schedule. More like the lag seven. Yeah. Shout to Roundhill, though. Yeah, Will Hersh. Oh, no, not bad.

Yeah. We f***ing love this bag seven ETF. I'll buy it right now. All right. Wait. Go back one. So if that turns out to be like a six-month, a year, three-year top,

it would be pretty poetic. We've seen that before. I'd be surprised if it wasn't. I would be surprised if it were. A three year top? No, three year? No. I'm just saying.

By the way, it goes back to the chart prior. Go back to the chart prior just to remind everybody. It's all the same story. Yeah. It's all the same rotation. But name changes of things frequently happen right around a period of time where, like, everyone agrees. Yeah. Everyone agrees the Magnificent Seven are pretty magnificent.

Yeah, but shout out to Roundhill because it was a marketing decision that was made to appeal to the sentiment at the time. Oh, I would have done it. I still think Jim Cramer missed a huge opportunity not doing an Only Fangs page. Only Fangs. Only Fangs. Not bad. He missed it. Not bad. He missed it. Not bad, Tommy.

Anyway. And then this is the chart. That's all I do is add value. This is it. This is the big one? It's the only one that matters. The dollar? Look at those peaks.

Look at end of 2016, that peak. Look at the early 2020 peak. What happened after those peaks? Stocks ripped. But what is all this noise above the gray bar? What is that? That was more recently. So that was the end of 22. We peaked in October of 22 and that crash in the dollar up there, that was the fourth quarter of last year into this year. Oh, I didn't realize how far back this chart was going. Oh, okay. All right. So what do you think is happening

here? So if you're a stock market bull and you are making the bet that stocks are going to go higher, it's not so much that you want a weaker dollar. You need a weaker dollar. The weaker dollar will coincide with a rally in stocks. But they're concurrent, no? Like it's the same thing. Not on a daily basis, but...

If this chart breaks down and breaks those former highs, we go back down to the 2020 lows. That's a Dow 50,000, S&P 6,000. But don't you see a lot of support there? What would you guess happens?

We've seen support there. My bet is it breaks. I don't know when, but if any strength you see in the dollar is going to coincide with stocks under pressure, this is it.

We've talked about it here every single episode because it's the only thing that actually matters. This is it. Dude, Dow 50,000. Do you have any idea who I'm booking for future proof? You're f***ing like Jay-Z and Beyonce.

Well, call them because that's where we're going. All right. I like it. All right. I like it. I know Fahmy brought some charts, but I just want to do a quick, you know, just, right? What did you call it?

Power Hour? Lightning Round. Lightning Round. Power Hour hour something else power hour all right ready ready john global dow all-time highs this is 19 financials 14 industrials technology is only 13 so just think about that next global 100 index all-time highs next wow euro stock 600 so this is the equivalent of the S&P 1500. Yeah, I like this trade.

Smalls, mids, and large. New for the two-week highs. Next. Euro stocks 50. This is the Dow, essentially, of Europe. New multi-decade highs. Germany. All-time highs.

Kind of a big deal outside of the United States. What's the most important index in the world? I'd argue Germany. New all-time highs. Not Japan. Also making 33-year highs. So we'll take it. We'll take it.

France, all-time highs, despite what people might be saying about, you know, some of these discretionary stocks. We can keep going. A lot of industrials here. Denmark, new all-time highs there for the Copenhagen 20. Keep going. There's the Oslo index pushing up against new all-time highs. We can just keep going, right? That's the whole point.

Sweden, look at the Stockholm 30, new 52-week highs. Milano Indice de Borsa, 15-year highs. Look at London 100, pushing up against new highs. Oh, shit. I didn't even realize that. Broadening out to the 350. You know how much technology is in the London Index? Zero. Almost none. Zero. Yeah.

Look at Poland, the WIG20, new all-time highs. Pronounce that shit. Nope. Here we're looking at the Dutch master right here

pushing up against new 52-week highs. Hungary, new all-time highs in Budapest. I need Google Maps for half these countries. I don't even know

where these guys are. You know, we talk about Italy making new 15-year highs, not known for their stock market. It's the food, the people, the booze. Same with, you know, same with Greece. Greece, look, Greece is, well, Greece is a big,

the whole thing is tourism. It's a Kardashian bottom. Yeah. It's a big round bottom, yeah. All right, keep going. India, new all-time highs for the Nifty 50. Look at the Nifty 500 next if you want to broaden it out, all-time highs.

Bank Nifty, these are the financials broaden it out. All-time highs. Bank Nifty. These are the financials in India. New all-time highs. Indian small caps. New all-time highs. Remember when they said small cap stocks weren't working? New all-time highs for Indian small caps.

Japan, 33-year highs. That's a crazy chart. Nikkei. Australia, new all-time highs. Taiwan, new 52-week highs. Pushing against new all-time highs. Look at the Jakarta index. New all-time highs. Look at the Jakarta index, new all-time highs in Indonesia. Brazilian Bovespa, new all-time highs coming out of a

multi-year base. We can keep going. Look at the Bolsa de Valores. This is in Peru, new all-time highs. Chile, pushing up against new all-time highs, the second highest close in the history of the country. Argentina, this is the ETF. So you're not getting the currency situation. New all-time highs. Mexico, new all-time highs. I mean, Canada, new 52-week highs. I mean, are these- This is so bearish.

There's 195 countries he just covered. We're in a global recession. I guess. This is so bearish. We should have more of these more often. This feels- Yeah, first of all, round of applause. Well done.

Why do you think there's so little awareness that, like, thousands of stocks around the world are hitting 52-week highs? You know what's one of my favorite quotes of yours? You don't turn on the weather channel when it's 80 degrees and sunny outside. Yeah, so that's it. Because the news is all negative.

You tune in when it's, you know, you turn on the weather channel when there's a hurricane, tornado, or blizzard coming. My point is the news is always negative. You're not going to hear this. That's it, right? Because what he just did, what you just did would not appear on any news channel ever. Financial television's all-time ratings, highest ratings ever, 08, 09 crisis.

Right. When it's all-time highs, no one cares to turn on the news. Even in the old school days when Peter Jennings or Tom Brokaw would start off the nightly news, they would never start with the stock market unless it was a big down. Unless it was a crash. Same thing with us. Our traffic is

nothing in a bull market. Like when there's nothing to talk about, people don't turn in. That's the reason why negative news hire the VIX, hire the clicks.

So that's why no one knows any of this stuff because why? Because who gets paid for telling people? Sunshine and rainbows who cares about that

that's right it's not news we want fires you've got some charts yeah I don't know if they're first of all round of applause

for the all-star charts show that was really I mean truly that was all-star that was epic you did not disappoint Joe appreciate it

measure up I don't know I don't even have a laptop alright All right. I put them in the, don't worry. Don't worry. We, we going back to, okay. So this is what I was going back to the strength. This is this year on the S and P or maybe the NASDAQ. Um, the strength in November and December is part of my reason. Like, I think we could see a 10 to 15% year this year because of this strength to what we talked about earlier leads to more strength. So next chart is, I believe, Zweig breath thrust, which is—

This is a Marty Zweig indicator. Marty Zweig came up with this. He interpreted this as signaling a new bull market. This is what we're talking about. Strength leads to more strength, and these are a lot of rare technical things. So 18 of them since World War II. And this is from Ryan Dietrich. It shows the point is it bodes well for the next six to 12 months where it's higher a year later every single time. It's a rare signal. Swag breath thrust. You can Google it basically going from oversold to an incredible technical strength. When did this trigger? November? Early November. This is November 3rd

on the bottom there of last year. So next one, these are a whole bunch of things. Here's another one. Percentage of S&P stocks above their 50-day crossed above 90 since 2000. It's higher 98% of the time 12 months later. Average gain 14%. Is it a sure thing?

No, but it's just statistics probabilities to help. Next one. This is another rare one from the guys at Sediment Trader. For the fourth time since 1950, McClellan's summation index crossed 1,500. The only other precedents were ending the bear market in 70, 74 in early 2010s. So again, these are just more statistics probabilities of all the strength we just talked about. And I think the last one here is, or not the last one of this segment, is when the S&P gains more than 10% in November, December, like it did in 2023, following year is, again, six months, a year out. So this is for people,

the timeframe, six months to a year. Let's give people what the numbers are. Next year is up to 19.5% on average over the next year. On average, which means a lot of years are much better than that. Yeah. Yeah. So now someone might be screaming, okay, you guys are way too bullish.

Like, this is ridiculous. We're not bullish. The market is. Right. But the next slide is a reminder. No, JC, am I being real? It's not us. It's not our opinion.

We're just interpreting what we're seeing. It's all the time. being real? It's not us. It's not our opinion. We're just interpreting what we're seeing. It's all-time highs everywhere. I agree. It's our opinion. How is it an opinion? If markets are at all-time highs, how is that us being bullish? It's how it was created.

But everybody's opinion is in the stock market. But your interpretation that that's bullish is not. All-time highs are not an interpretation. No, there are people that would say all-time highs are a signal that you should be selling. But they're not. We know that. No, but that are not an interpretation. No, there are people that would say all-time highs are a signal that you should be selling. But they're not. We know that. No, but that's our opinion.

It was created with an incredible amount of strength. The data says all-time highs are not bearish. I'm sorry. It depends on your time horizon. But just a reminder. Yeah, fine. Can we see a pullback? Yeah, obviously.

Over the last 50 years. Come on now. To your point. Over the last 50 years, the average S&P pullback about 14.5%. So this is a reminder for everyone saying, oh, you're too bullish. Isn't that? We just had an 11% pullback in August, September, So this is a reminder for everyone saying, oh, you're too bullish, isn't that? We just had an 11% pullback in August, September, October. We did, that's right.

So that was 10.3 on a closing basis. The point is, you're going to have pullbacks. Here's too bullish. I think the market is going to be up more than 20% this year. That's too bullish. But you can still have an entry-year pullback. I forget the next one. I don't know if it's presidential.

Oh, I guarantee we will. Of course we'll have pullbacks. Presidential cycle might be the next one. Why are you shaking your head? What? Come on. Oh, say it. Batnick thinks everybody

has his time horizon. Like nobody gives a shit about you and your time horizon. Why are you planting thoughts into my brain? You're projecting. I don't think everybody has my time horizon.

My time horizon is infinite. Forever. Infinite. All right then. I'm investing money now that I personally will never spend. I walked into his office. He has one-minute candles. That's true.

That's true. No, not now. Not now. That was 10 years ago. More than 10 years ago. No, you showed me a five-minute chart. My goal is bullish until it starts going down. Yeah, obviously.

So there's still going to be pullbacks. This one I like because, you know, it actually coincides. I found this very interesting. The 10 worst weeks of the year in the last 50 years, if you notice, almost every one of the worst weeks is the week after options expiration. Regular cycle OPEX, old school, third Friday of every month, almost every worst week of the year comes afterwards. And there's just an amazing mechanics of- Still. That's still going on?

Still going on. Options coming off the books. Like for example, a lot of people buy leaps for January of 2024. When those come off the books, maybe you'll see a sell-off after them. I'm not saying it will, but you could see it because of the leverage, just the whole mechanics of the markets. This is still going on, something to keep in mind. So when people are like, you're too bullish, I'm like, no, there's going to be pullbacks. This might be a time when you might see one. How about this? Josh said, how come not everybody knows the charts that JC just shared with us? It's not just that the media wants to give you bad news. People want bad news. Our audience would be much more happy if they tune in, not much more happy, but they

would rather us say, be careful, watch out. The human mind is trained to worry about what's going to, what's wrong. Right, of course. What's around the corner. So the comment section would be much happier with us if we were like, guys, you should probably watch out. Like this is not the time. We, you don't get credit for being bullish. You sound like an idiot. My point is the strength leads to digestion. And the point about time frame, it's later on, possibly this year. So you know— There's one on presidential cycle, too, real quick.

I think that's the next one. Wait, wait. Hold that. Hold that. Go ahead. Sorry. So you know Nick Maggiuli put out a book— Just Keep Buying.

Just Keep Buying. Love it. And I think he put it out in 2021. 21 or 22? 22. He sold 100,000 copies of a book. Just keep buying. Just keep buying. Love it. And I think he put it out in 2021. 21 or 22? 22. He sold 100,000 copies of the book. So that's not the problem. When the market was down in 2022,

which it was almost relentlessly throughout the course of the first half of the year, people would like, as a joke, like throw his book up, like the cover of his book. And it was, you know, it's funny. Like I, I, he put it out. He didn't read it and get the point. I think he might've put it at the end of 21. And then in 2022, the market falls 20%. And the Aztec falls. If you listen to him,

you'd be doing great. If you listen to him, you'd be doing great. So that's not the problem. I'm just saying on the way up to Michael's point, people weren't like posting his book cover. It'll never happen. Yeah. He might. No one else is like, hey, Nick, remember you said this?

Good job, man. Nobody. Someone should write just keep selling. Yeah, but you want to know something? Just keep selling. You want to know something? Sell more copies

and just keep buying. Of course you will. Sell a million more copies. To Nick's point, everybody keeps talking about the two-year returns. Oh, some bull market.

We're just back to the former highs. Like, what kind of bull market just gets us back to the former highs if you take an anchored vwap back to those highs which i do the average buyer is very very very profitable exactly what do you mean if because if you bought as the market's going down you add more average buyers since his book came out, is incredibly profitable. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. Average price. We have the data. Dollar cost averaging is undefeated.

You should see my 401k. I guarantee you it's outperforming every – You're buying on the way down. That's all I do. It's $23,000 into the account every year regardless of price. You do that through a year like 2022, you're going to look better than almost anyone. If you have a longer 10, 20, 30-year time frame retirement, you want corrections, as you guys have said so many times. Got to have them.

This is on quarterly returns of presidential cycles. So this is an old slide, but it's the last four we're concerned about. So the fourth year of presidential cycle showing that the first quarter is pretty muted and the gains usually come in the second half of the year. For this year? This is the actual election year? Yeah, fourth year. So second year tends to be ugly, which it was in 2022.

Third year tends to be the best. Oh, look at that. Okay, so year four Q1 is a flat quarter. All returns come in the third year, basically. The third year is statistically about 20%. And the worst year is the second. Terranova did that with us and just absolutely nailed it. The presidential cycle gave us a great chart, really great explanation.

And 2023 was one of those years where it really worked. Joe was talking about midterm election years. The 12 months after the midterm elections are super bullish. The second year is the worst. Third year is the best. And the fourth tends to be, tends to be weighted. Oh, the second year is the worst because that's the midterm. Which was 2022.

Yeah. The third year averages over 20, which is what we got last year. You buy the midterm elections. You buy the midterm because that's when things are shitty. Which was October of 2022, midterm election. I forget if there's another one on the next one is on presidential. There isn't? Okay.

Okay. No, this is on the Fed that I was going to talk about, but that's something totally different. Or we can talk about that. Let's do it. It's not as good as his stuff. Chart it up. All right.

So the other thing I wanted to talk about is I joked last time I was here that everyone's obsessed with macro. And Josh made a good point because interest rates affect everything, credit cards, housing, all that stuff, lending. But I call this Metallica macro because nothing else matters but the Fed. So I just say, hey, if you're managing a global macro fund, $10 billion, I get it. But if you're helping your mom with her Roth IRA, stop obsessing over macro. Wrong game.

The only thing that matters is the Fed. And two things, is the Fed starting an interest rate hiking cycle or ending it? Or are they adding liquidity to the system and providing a, what's the word, a constructive, accommodative environment? Or are they taking liquidity out and providing a restrictive environment? I went back, I'm a big fan of IBD, William O'Neill, those follow-through days which signal when the big institutions come into the market. So I went back with a few examples throughout history. This is 2010. We had the flash crash in May of 2010. Bernanke, the Fed share at the time, came out on September 1 where that big red arrow is. September 1 came out, Jackson Hole announced QE2.

I remember that happening. Do you? Yeah. We were all tweeting our heads off. That was a- We were. We were. That was a signal of follow-through days are assigned,

just to keep it simple, of the institutions coming back in. The institutions came back in because you focus on whether the Fed is starting or ending an interest rate hiking cycle or providing liquidity or taking liquidity out. Look at that rally. It's an amazing rally. It was like 36% until the end of the year. This is 2010? 2010.

You could have bought anything in that market. October 1. Oh, everything. Chipotle, everything. Herbalife. Everything went crazy. Early Netflix. Yeah.

Like Lulu had just come around. Lulu Lemon did. Yeah, that was a monster. You're absolutely right. Now, the next slide is an example from going throughout history, recent history, 2018. The Fed's raising rates, we corrected almost 20% in the fall, October of 18. So, the fall of 18, right? Powell came out on January 4th and says, we're going to be patient raising rates.

And that was a follow-through day signal to rally. we're going to be patient raising rates. And that was a follow-through day signal to rally. Again, just my point about this is don't focus on housing starts, jobs reports. All that stuff is lagging indicators. I want to focus macro and all I care about is what the Fed is saying. Remember Mnuchin?

Wait, you know what he did? He, on the low is when the meme- Nobody worry. The meme when he got on the phone and called the banks was the dead low. He called the banks and the low said, everything's fine, there's plenty of liquidity. Nobody pays. Why did he do that? For no reason. That was wild. That was crazy. It was got on the phone and called the banks was the dead low. He called the banks and the low said, everything's fine. There's plenty of liquidity. Nobody pays.

Why did he do that? For no reason. That was wild. That was crazy. It was literally on the low. Was that Trump's lawyer? It was the head of the Treasury. No, it was the Treasury Secretary.

It was Steve Bannon. He said liquidity is not an issue. So that's when we said – now here's another example, extreme example. The next slide is COVID. Talk about three things that happened. They kept rates at zero and provided an insane amount of liquidity. Stimulus. Stimulus.

The red arrows of March, April. March, end of March, early April. They did and expanded their balance sheet. They did more. They bought more treasuries in six weeks off of that low than they did in the nine years combined from 09 to 2018. You know what everybody was saying? Balance sheet just went crazy. Myself included when stocks made new highs and I'm making fun of myself. You're telling me the economy's better now that it was pre-pandemic? This is not the point. Focus. That's what I mean. Nothing else matters except for the Fed. Now the opposite of this is the next slide, where these are examples of the Fed cutting rates or providing liquidity. The next slide is the end of 2021 into the bear market of 2022. The next slide is those three arrows is when the Fed did the exact opposite.

They said, we're going to stop our bond buying at the end of 2022. All the big volume comes in. We have a leg down. Then they said, we're going to raise rates in 2022. And then in January, mid-January is when they said, we're going to reduce our balance sheet. So all that matters to me, to keep it simple, is the Fed raising rates or starting a cycle or ending a cycle.

In this case, they were starting. Are they providing liquidity like they did in QE2 and after COVID or after the COVID news? Or are they taking liquidity out of the system, which is what they're doing here? What was so savage about that chart, look at the rally from June through August of 2022. There had never been a period in time where a bear market rally captured 50% of the previous gains and then made new lows. And we did that. That rally from June to August was brutal. Because then it made new lows in October.

You're saying it's never captured 50%. So the balance from June to August. He said stocks bottomed in June that year. Well, the majority of stocks did. From June to August, the S&P captured 50% of the losses and then made new lows. That had never happened before after a 20% decline. But you know what?

Now I just thought about this. Something that has never happened before happens every day. Because that's when Powell had that Jackson Hole speech and he just threw it out. A lot of big strategists agree with what you're saying. They just look at it differently. They focus on money supply. Yes. Liquidity.

M2. How much liquidity is being taken from the system or pushed into the system? It's another way of doing it. Like Brian Westbury talks about that. Tony Dwyer is a big— Oh, those guys are brilliant with that stuff. Those are big money supply guys. But it's the same concept.

I agree with that. So like in other words, if you're a macro dilettante and that's not like your whole focus, don't worry about tracking 75 indicators. Focus on the big one, liquidity. I'm just focused on liquidity. I like that idea. Yeah, that's it. Just keep it simple.

How's this for too bullish? How's this for too bullish? Let's open this point. Oh, shit. I'm going to show you how to do it. Go ahead. Well, it's got to be 4 o'clock somewhere, right? You know that that bottle opener is yours too?

It says All-Star Charts. How about that? How about that? JC is providing liquidity. You are like one of the number one liquidity providers that I know of. Joe, we have more? I brought more, but you want to get into it? Yeah, let's go. All right. I want you guys to comment. So yeah, so that basically, the whole end of this is this year. That strength in November was when Powell hinted that they're done and December confirmed it. So next slide is on trading stocks, I believe.

Okay. This is so great. Take us to school. Totally shifting topics. All right. Most people should not be trading individual stocks. I've come to that conclusion. And everyone's going to yell at me. But the reason it doesn't work,

the reason why most people shouldn't is because people have trouble making decisions. They buy garbage stocks. They can't sell. They can't do it. They just have a lot of trouble making decisions. If you are... Don't be distracted by Samuel Yeh.

That's all right. What level of Sam are you? He is a level That's all right. What level sommelier? He is. He's a level four sommelier. Are you a level two? No. What are you? You're officially a sommelier, right?

I am. I just applied for the advanced sommelier. Do most sommeliers drink glasses of wine out of scotch glasses? Or are we breaking that? You want to know something? Talk to the best sommeliers. They don't give a f**k. All that glass thing, that's just a racket.

Is that right? It's just a racket. Really? It's just marketing. Like all those riddle stuff. So we can go paper cups? All right. I like it.

Go to Italy. Go to the most beautiful place in Tuscany. They're drinking out of these little coffee cups. It's fantastic. Don't worry about it. All right. So most people shouldn't be, but you know the problem with that is people love trading stocks for whatever reasons.

It's fun. Of course. I love trading it too. I'm not being critical. I'm saying like maybe you own a It's fun. Of course. I love trading it too. I'm not being critical. I'm saying like maybe you own a Tesla and you love Tesla stock. You love Elon Musk. Maybe you have an iPhone and Warren Buffett owns Apple or your neighbor told you about some two-cent biotech that's got a cure. We love trading stocks. But my point is if you're going to, I brought a few slides on probabilities to help. Oh, that's great. things that can help your probabilities of success thank you for the wine cheers cheers lovely guys what are we drinking amarone amarone

okay cheers it's a corvina grape in northern italy gotta love corvina grape if you don't we can't be friends what's special about the corvina grape well this wine actually you know what's amazing about this is it's very special, actually, because what they do is when we harvest our grapes in Napa, we put them in cold soak so the fermentation process doesn't start. So the yeast can't start the fermentation because it's too cold. So we just let the juice sit there with the skins and get the tannins and just sit there for three days, and then the fermentation process starts. These guys, what they'll do is that they'll get the grapes and they'll put them in a room and let's just let them dry out. And that's why there's a little bit

less, these are slightly less dry than a Barolo or Brunello. You're going to pay the same, maybe even more, but it's going to be less dry than some of those others. So something like a fra diavola, like something a little spicy. I like to go with an Amarone and it doesn't even need food. You could just drink it. Because it's less dry. That's slightly. Yeah. Well, it's delicious. Thank you. Thank you so much. Great. Joe, finish your thought. Okay. So if people get one thing out of what I'm going to say, keep it simple. 50 day moving average, which we talked about roughly coincides with the 10 week moving average. I like to use the NASDAQ as the leading index. But you want to be in stocks when the wind's at your back and things are healthy. For the most part, when we're above the 50-day moving average, that means the institutions are supporting the

markets and the wind's at your back. This is on a daily or a weekly basis? 50-day moving average or the 10-week on a weekly chart. They roughly coincide to be roughly the same. The point is, be in the markets when the wind's at your back and the institutions are supporting. I said it's not an exact science. Think of it as a red light, green light. So I'll look at any chart you want me to look at, any stock, any index. If we're above the 50-day, I'll say, for the most part, institutions are supporting a green light if it's below red light.

Here's a question that our audience is going to have though. Sure. So what do you do on a crossover? So NASDAQ's above its 50 day, it's trending. Yeah. And then it like runs into a little bit of consolidation, no big deal. And then there's a, cause the 50 days noisy. It might dip below or yeah.

Right. So in other words, your whole personality doesn't have to change from Warren Buffett to Felix Zuloff because it crosses below the 50-day. No, this is for people who like to trade. And I'm just trying to help with, if it's around the 50-day, if it's red light above, I mean, red light below, maybe yellow light, like proceed with caution. Right. Because people are always looking for like binary, buy or sell. There is no, there is no binary. It was not that easy. The problem is, and it's not with for binary, buy or sell. There is no binary. It's not that easy. The problem is, and it's not with these indicators, it's with us,

selling is so easy. It's easy to manage risk to the downside. No, no, no. Getting back in is very difficult. People have a lot of trouble selling. I'm the opposite. I have no problem selling. People have trouble selling gains because they worry about more gains that they're going to miss out on.

And a lot of people have trouble taking losses. But you guys are flexible. Yeah, Fahmy's guys are flexible and your professionals what you might have a skill that most people don't have but fami's right if you're able to make a decision and cut your when you read market wizards the top three rules in market wizard i've never got your losses cut your losses i've never taken a big loss but i've also had trouble writing big winners but my point my point my big point was getting out is easy getting back in is is very difficult. That's not for most people, dude. No, no. I think if you sell at like $8 because you're managing risk, nobody's buying back at $9 because you're anchored to where you sold.

This is just probabilities because the next slide shows you 2022. Maybe for rookies, maybe. Yeah, for rookies. We're all rookies. The next slide shows you 2022. You have to know that. The red line, this is 2022. Daily chart of the S&P for 2022.

The red line is this is 2022. Daily chart of the S&P for 2022. The red line's the 50-day. And to your point, Mike, the rally that happened, the black line's a 200-day. Paul Tudor Jones said nothing good happens below the 200-day. If you plotted the New York Giants offense, it would all be below the 200-day this year. I'm just seeing if my experience. I'm just trying to offend as many people as possible.

But look, my point is if you just use the red light, doesn't mean go cash. It doesn't mean sell everything. I'm talking about for traders. Just like we just talked about with Druckenmiller. Instead of 1,000 shares, maybe go 50 or 100 so you don't lose as much- It's just awareness of the environment. We're below. This is a simple way to tell if the market's healthy or not. Yeah. Act like you're below. If it's below-

Then act that way. This is short in your size. Maybe don't take your five favorite trades. Maybe take your top two. Or just reduce size. This gets back. This is something we talked about. We've talked about it before us.

This is something that Jeff DeGraff taught me early on. Yeah. And it... Yeah, we love Jeff DeGraff. He's a f***ing man. Yeah.

I mean, he's on my Mount Rushmore. Best technicians for sure. Can we get him back on the show? Yeah, get love Jeff DeGraff. He's the f***ing man. Yeah. I mean, he's on my Mount Rushmore, best technicians for sure. Can we get him back on the show? Yeah, get him back on the show. We have Neil Della coming out in a few weeks. You need more technicians on the show. Neil Diamond? Your technicians show are the best shows.

It's just what it is. Okay. Facts only. Okay. Jeff DeGraff, what he says, first, identify what type of market environment we're in. Then decide which... The primary trend.

It's not just a primary trend of one asset. It's the environment itself. There's a lot of people who really have trouble. Right? Can I explain to you- Hold on, let me finish. First, identify the market environment. Then decide which tools and strategies are best for that environment.

So if we're in a low volatility regime, then incorporating strategies that are good for high volatility regimes is stupid. I didn't even know he said that. And vice versa. But go ahead. You know what I'm saying? What I want to say is

this is what I think people really struggle with. There's something called the endowment effect, which is where when you own something, you tend to place a higher value on it than if you didn't own it. Meaning it's harder to part with something at a lower price because it's yours. And they've done this study where they took an economics class, they broke the class in half, they gave half the class a coffee mug, and then the other half didn't

get one. And then they instructed the half that didn't get the coffee mug to bid on those that did. And they found this effect that the people willing to bid were not willing to bid as highly as the sellers wanted them to bid because the sellers thought it was worth more. It's a coffee mug. It's nonsense. There's so much psychology. So in the endowment effect, how does it manifest itself in practical reality with a trading account?

What happens after you buy a stock? You love it. You love it. Of course you do. Cause you love you in love with your own decision. Okay. So now you buy it at nine and you're obeying this 50 day moving average cause you're disciplined and you own it for three days and it violates on

the fourth day, but you just spent the last three days reading about it, listening to conference calls and pulling yourself up. It's really hard. Not for you. Michael has a different problem. A lot of people in our audience, I think it's like, oh, I can't sell it now.

Like I know the discipline. There's a lot of factors. It's so hard to do that. It's your time frame, your investment objectives. Because I might stop myself out. Warren Buffett might buy more. So it depends on your time frame. Depends if your value.

Depends if your growth. Depends on how invested you are. It depends on what you started your position size with. There's a million variables to the whole thing. But nobody is consistent enough to actually know what they are. So you'll see investors doing trades. You'll see traders turning losses into long-term investments. You talk about this all the time. Trader versus investor. Because people don't know what they are.

You and Warren Buffett definitely trade different stocks. We both eat at Dairy Queen though. J.C., haven't you said there's no fundamentals in a bear market? In a bear market, everybody... I never said that. No, haven't you said there's no fundamentals in a bear market? In a bear market, everybody— I never said that. No, the point is— But everybody wants to charge a bear market. There's always fundamentals.

You talk about on TV all the time, you know, trader versus investor. You're absolutely right. I encourage people to define themselves. Warren Buffett has a thing. He's a value investor, and he knows his strategy. I'm more of a trader. Just figure out what you are. So they asked me a question today on Halftime Report. It's a good question. This is a guy from, like, one of the institutional shops. I think more of a trader. Just figure out what you are. So they asked me a question today on Halftime Report. It's a good question.

There's a guy from one of the institutional shops. I think it's a technician. And he's talking about tactical overbought in large cap tech and due for a pullback and whatever. And I said, he's probably right. I don't know. But if you're an investor, who gives a shit?

What does that have to do with anything? But you have to know what you are. Because think about how many people don't know that advice like that has nothing to do with their situation. If you have a trader, what's your strategy? Most people can't define it. Work on a plan. Big money.

Work on a plan that fits all of your variables. Your age, is this retirement money? Are you saving for a wedding? You're buying a house? You know, there's so many variables. Can you watch the market full time or not?? Work on a plan that fits your temperament, your investment strategy, and your personality. And if you don't have a plan, get one. If you don't have a personality, get a personality as well. That's great advice from Joe.

That's good. Wait, Joe's not done. One more. No, no. I got a couple more. So to JC's point, first identify what market is healthier. And he's identifying it using a moving average. I'm identifying it a different more. So to JC's point, first identify when the market's, what market is healthier. And he's identifying it using a moving average. I'm identifying it a different way. Jeff DeGraff will identify it a different way. Actually, Jeff DeGraff uses a lot of moving averages. It's not about that. It's about identifying what the market is for you and then adapting to it. He goes to Vegas or Hawaii or whatever you do when it's below a 50-day moving average. You don't go to Hawaii. He's just in Hawaii. He was just in Hawaii. Try to keep up, Josh. Come on. So now let's assume step one, it's healthy and things are good. You're not healthy. No, I'm not healthy. Let's assume the market's healthy.

Can we be unhealthy tonight? We're going to be unhealthy. You should see what we're eating later. So these are the studies that William O'Neill did on the greatest winning stocks before they made their move. I put before in bold, underlining capital to prove a point here. They took all of the before Walmart became Walmart, before McDonald's, before Microsoft, before these stocks went up tens of thousands, 500 to 10,000 percent. And there were 18 of them, but these are the top four. So my point is if you're going to be – you don't have to trade growth or value, whatever you want to do. If you want to trade stocks that have characteristics of the biggest winners throughout history. Wouldn't you want to be an investor and not trade these?

You could, but you also have to deal with the ups and downs, like, you know, like the Amazons of the world. There's periods where the growth slows. So this is a great list of characteristics. We're going to run through them really quickly. To me, when I read this list, other than number four, I say to myself, like, this sounds like an investing list. It can be. As much as it is a trading list.

Whatever works for you to suit your style. What are these? So these are the four factors of huge winners. This is such common sense. It's such common sense, but people don't think about it. I love how intuitive this is. The biggest winners throughout history. If you have a small business and you're growing your earnings and sales, doesn't your business have more value? Yeah, of course. Of course. So the main reason

behind the biggest winning stocks throughout history was growing your earnings and sales at 30% or greater comparing quarter to quarter, meaning comparing the fourth quarter of this year to the fourth quarter last year for retail reasons. You want to compare the holiday shopping season to the apples to apples to compare the holiday shopping season to the apples to apples, to compare the holiday shopping season. So it's 30% comparing the fourth quarter of whatever year to the prior fourth quarter or first quarter or whatever. 80% of them came

from five groups, consumer retail. Don't underestimate consumer clothing, shoes, restaurants as well, Chipotle. Monster energy. All of that stuff. Things that people don't even think of. Dominos.

The biggest winners ever. Even in the 60s, like something like leisure and entertainment. Brunswick went up 1,200% in the 60s because it was a big bowling and pool boom. Lulu with a big yoga boom. So don't underestimate fads, things like that. Most of them are computer-related software,

semi, stuff like that. Drug medical discoveries like computer-related software, semi, stuff like that, drug medical discoveries like Amgen in the 90s. So what's not here? The defensive stuff. JC does a lot of that work, like Staples. Costco looks good. Walmart. Consumer retail.

What are the defensive sectors? I don't know. Walmart's not on this list, though? Walmart's a consumer defense. No, it's not. Verizon's not on this list. Well, first of all, these are the major themes from the biggest winners. They're not the S&P group.

But utilities and staples wouldn't be on here because they're defensive. So it's mostly growthier stuff. And then technicals, these are before they start their big move. They're usually above the 200-day or above the 50-day. So 99% of these stocks were above their 200-day. 96% were above their 50-day. Average relative strength, 92. That's on a 1 to 99 proprietary rating that they use.

So if you were to just start your process with, is the market, let's say the NASDAQ composite, above its 50-day? Yeah. Check. Put a screen with this characteristic. Now that I'm on a screen, I only want to look at stocks that are reporting quarterly earnings per share as of last quarter 30 higher than the previous year's you know quarter if you just started your list that way yeah but what if we're an environment where you want the companies that aren't making any money at all in fact you want the companies that are losing the most money 2021 yeah you know

you know what the sports analogy is? You own an NFL team or an NBA team, and you have the seventh pick in the draft. And they ask you, who are you going to pick in the draft? You know what you say? The best player available. So to your point, running that screen at least narrows down the universe of 9,000 or 10,000 stocks, depending on what you want to... Let's say you narrow it down to 100. You're at least trying to pick from some of the best available that have characteristics of the best winners. Yes, there's going to be others,

of course. There's always a $2 biotech. By definition, you're going to miss those value rotations. Yeah, that's fine. You're okay with that doing this. There's always a $2 biotech that goes to 100, but the point is this is probabilities. You're going to miss that quarter or two every year where the defensives outperform the growth names. I mean, look, there's people, like I said, there's traders, investors, there's people who do value, do growth.

This is, for me, more of as a growth trader. But to your point, you can stick with some of these as long as the growth is there and they keep growing. Yeah, I love this list. And by the way, this is also, to me, the most important part of this list is the risk management aspect of it all. These are filters to help manage risk, right? That's part of the selection process.

You're drafting from the NFL from the SEC versus drafting from the Ivy League. That's the analogy. Wow, hating on the Ivy. For sports? Ryan Fitzpatrick? You're picking from a better pool of stocks than from...

It doesn't mean someone from the Ivies can't win the MVP. You ask people, how do you decide what stocks to buy? Whatever's on TV. The only way to make sure that you own the best stocks is to buy the best stocks, right? But this helps you narrow down the list. Now, one last thing. There's more.

If you order now, I'm going to you narrow down the list. Now, one last thing. There's more. If you order now, I'm going to throw in some steak knives. So, you now know the market's healthy. Fundamentals, there's a whole bunch of technical patterns.

JC looks at different things, but cup with handle and double bottom are the two most common. I'm an island reversal guy. Right. I like it's my shit. I love double bottom.

Oh, yeah. I really do. Or higher lows. I'm a higher low guy. All right. So, cup with handle is the most common is the next slide that a lot of people have heard from. So now you have a healthy

market. You've narrowed it down to some strong stocks. This is where I believe no matter what your timeframe is, if you're a shorter term, medium-term trader, longer term investor, I'm a big fan of getting a good entry point to help with risk management. So you just at least use a chart. You don't have to be an expert technician, but use a chart to help with your entry. So I know you joked on TV, you joked that you buy something that drops 10% right away. That's what I expect. At least if you get it near a decent entry point, it might help you. I got some technical patterns that you don't have on here. The lion, the witch and the wardrobe. You ever trade one of those? No, I've traded the Kardashian bottom, though.

Stephen Clay? Kardashian bottom is one of my faves. Like a Stephen Clay? No. All right. I'm going to show you some of my indicators. So really quick with the cup with handle. This is what I was talking about earlier.

Yeah, I like this setup, too. It makes sense to me. So a lot of people have heard cup with handle, but they don't know what it looks like. It's literally tracing a coffee cup at the top, and on the bottom, you can use it on daily charts or weekly charts. This is an actual chart of Microsoft from 1991

coming out of the Gulf War bear market, 1991 bear market. You had to go back to 1990 to find one of these? Yeah, but it was flawless. It was perfect. It was only one of them. It was pristine. It only happened once. It runs from – this is the only one.

Historically speaking. I had to go to 91. He's still looking for the next one. It's his white whale. All right. We hope you find another one of these. I'll try to find one. Hold on.

Can I show a couple more? Can I? Why are you hating on us? I appreciate the history. Could you use a photocopier to get that into the game? I appreciate the history. I'm done. It's an unsplitted Microsoft chart from the 90s.

It's a classic. I love you, Joe. Don't let him talk to you like that. I can't explain the couplet handle, but go to JoeFahmy.com. 1991 might have been one of the best years for music, maybe of all time. Rock music, specifically. I think that's accurate. There's a 44-day stretch in there. Rock music specifically. It's like a, I think that's accurate. It's a 44 day stretch in there.

R.E.M.? Where like, no, seriously, like, I think like, Use Your Illusion 1 and 2 come out. Rock,

and you had the whole, the whole Seattle, Metallica Black album. The whole Seattle. Like all in one shot. There's a Nirvana record in there. Let me tell you what, my four year old,

I swear to God, my four year old said this to me in the car the other day. Daddy, put on Nothing Else Matters. Nice. I swear to God. You've raised him well. You this to me in the car the other day. Daddy, put on Nothing Else Matters. Nice. I swear to God.

You've raised him well. You've raised him well. He's off to a good start. What do you got? I wanted to show something, and I'm glad that Fahmy brought this up. Oh, someone's happy I brought something. I got something from 18- I got the Bethlehem Steel from 1914.

If you want me to- I would love to see that, by the way. It's a great chart. We could do that on our own side. We'll do a little side. Go ahead, JC. Can you throw up 54, to. All right. I would love to see that, by the way. It's a great chart. We could do that on our own side. We'll do a little side. Go ahead, Jason. Can you throw up 54, John? All right.

So he mentioned these. And I wanted to make sure that we talked about risk management because that's really a primary focus of mine. That's a more recent cup with handle. It is or it's not? It is. Thank you for updating my slides. There we go. So this is technology.

This includes that Microsoft technology. Go. Yeah. So this is technology. This includes that Microsoft. Technology. Yeah. So. Is this a cup with handle? Yes. We already found the handle. Okay.

So this is the, what are we going to call it? The five before the nosedive, we'll call it. Right? How about that? So if you think the market's going to go down, here are five charts to prove that you're right. And if you think the market's going to go up, here are five charts to prove that you're right. And if you think the market's going to go up, here are five charts

that are going to prove that you're correct. Five before the nosedive. It sounds like a band. Five before the nosedive? Yeah. Something like that. Wait, five what?

Five charts. We lost the plot. Five charts. You're saying you could find five charts that will... I'm going to show you five charts that if you think the stock market's going to go down,

they will confirm that you're correct. And if you think the stock market's going to go up, they will confirm that you're correct. And if you think the stock market's going to go up, they will confirm that you are, right? Okay. No, he's got great charts. I'll just shut up. Technology ran back up to its former highs in late 21.

Yes. Last summer. Yes. We corrected for three months, as you discussed before. We bottomed in October. Get yourself sober and market rallies. And that's what happened, right? Yeah. we're now making new all-time highs in technology if the largest sector in the s&p 500 and 50 of the nasdaq is making new all-time highs and is

above the prior cycles highs it's really difficult to be pessimistic it's really difficult to be better can i say really what i was saying about the cup with handle really quick the people who bought on the left at 175 it5, it gets back to even. They say that prayer, get me back to even and I'm out. That creates the sellers, which creates the handle. That's when you want to buy when the sellers dry up and the volume dries up. The sellers are done. Timing-wise, that can help.

You usually see less volume too, right? Yeah, like if you didn't make fun of my last slide and kept it up, I would have showed you that. But it's okay. I'm kidding. I'm kidding it's okay. I'm kidding. Now, Fahmy will also agree, correct me if I'm wrong, if you fall back down in to the cup or handle, if you will. If you break below the handle.

If you break below it, that is evidence that the sellers are not done selling. Right? Correct. You can make the same argument about the homies. Am I allowed to say that? Homies? Yeah, no, we're good with that. We're good with that. Okay. So these are the late 21 highs and And again, same thing. We got back up to those former highs in the summer, corrected, are now breaking out. If you are bearish of the equities market and you think that recession and a crash and the yield curve and the M2 and all that

stuff, if we're below those 21 highs and we break 85 in the case of the homies, then you're probably right. If we're above that, you're not right. And the case of the homies, then you're probably right. If we're above that, you're not right. And then the next one, homebuilders, I don't need to explain why that's important, right? One of the most important parts of consumer discretionary. Super cyclical. Do I need to explain the importance of broker-dealers that are also breaking out to new all-time highs? To your point, Josh, your first question of what would turn you bearish if a lot of these broke down below these levels?

We just spent the last hour and 45 minutes answering that question. I love it. This is my point. I love it. I'm just circling. Right? Yeah. Right?

So all of these countries around the world are making new highs. All of these things are, you know, we got the breath thrust, all this stuff. Great. Now, what is it going to take to get more defensive in the market from an intermediate term perspective? Just because these break, it could just be a speed bump or a false start. It doesn't mean 1987, right?

It just means that a more defensive, you know, sideways for longer, something like that. You would watch, okay, broker-dealers break back below the 21 highs, same thing. Semiconductors, do I need to explain to you why they're important? Yeah. Right, 160 is the level there.

Those are the former highs. We're making new all-time highs. It's the same story. We rallied up in the summer. We corrected for three months and are now breaking out to new all-time highs. If we're above those levels,

hard to be pessimistic. And last but not least, here's number five. John? I think you did five. Oh, we already did five? That was five. Time flies when we're

having so much fun, you know? Oh, no. Industrials. Next one. The Industrials. Yeah, I knew it. I'm not crazy, bro. much fun, you know? Oh, no, industrials. Next one, the industrials. Yeah, I knew it. I'm not crazy, bro. You guys can be proud.

Canadian industrials. What in God's name is this? No, no, no, no. I just wanted to throw in just a little how you doing there because they look the same. It's really the U.S. industrials, but probably not a coincidence that Canadian industrials are doing the same thing. I just wanted to, you know, we have a lot of Canadian friends. Shout out, Canada. Yeah, yeah.

I just can't think of a Canadian industrial. It's probably a railroad you know, we have a lot of Canadian friends. Shout out Canada. Yeah, yeah. I just can't think of a Canadian industrial. It's probably a railroad. Yeah, CNI. Yeah. Okay. Canadian National. CNQ.

Yeah, yeah. Yeah. And they look good. Right. It's like logging would be Canadian industrials. Logging is probably materials. I don't know anything.

Dude, that was magnificent. Can we do a couple of other things before we let you guys get out of here? Are you allowed to say magnificent anymore? Today, Bitcoin has had an incredible run recently. And this is the stock I was most wrong about last year. Coinbase? Coinbase. Holy shit.

I was bearish in the 30s. Where is it now? 160? You know how many people at like 80 said this is the greatest short ever? Straza was long. Did he ever sell? No. Actually, that was Straza's 80 said this is the greatest short ever? Strasa was long. Did he ever sell? No. Actually, Strasa's best trade this year.

He crushed it. He was long a lot. He was long along the way. And he would do kickers. Like he would be long to common. So Strasa was in here saying that he's bullish and Josh goes, I think it's going to zero. By the way, whenever someone tells me this is their greatest conviction short, there were five of them last year. Everyone at least doubled. doubled yeah buy them car i heard that a lot about carvana

that was supposed to be a zero one there were so many people it's got a 46 percent coinbase was one universally the hedge funds i've so many hedge fund and i'm not making fun i mean hey i make mistakes all the time i'm just saying i'm making fun it's data i just they literally were like greatest short ever thesis on coinbase is that it was heavily shorted. Okay, check. Also, as crypto mainstreams, it's going to be one of the biggest beneficiaries because it's a pure play on crypto.

MicroStrategies is a bet on Bitcoin. Coinbase is a bet on crypto. Activity, crypto volume. Okay. Also though, they're going to play some role in the ETFs, which we're probably going to get next week. They're going to be involved with the custody necessary for the ETFs, which – How many ETFs are there?

It doesn't matter. Right now, zero. No, how many are they looking to approve? There's 10 or 12 applications, and they'll approve, let's say, half. Okay. Okay. And let's say one or two of them are going to get scale. Great. Coinbase is probably going to benefit just because of the halo effect. scale. Great. Coinbase is probably going to benefit just because of the halo

effect. That being said, this is Dan Dolev who is a fintech analyst at Mizuho, friend of the show. Coinbase Global January 4th, yesterday. Underperform. Price target

54. Wow, good for him. It's 152. This guy's balls. Bitcoin ETF hype boosted coin by 400% coin the stock, Coinbase stock. 400%, but may only add 5% to 10% to revenue. And just quickly, the potential upside to Coinbase revenue from Bitcoin ETF may be far less

than what the stock indicates. The much anticipated potential ETF approval was a primary catalyst for the nearly 400% rally in coin shares in 2023. He might be right, but this doesn't matter because if Bitcoin goes to $100,000 or $70,000, then Coinbase is going to go up.

This is the guy your friends want? This is the guy your friends want? On your paper short? He's a fundamental analyst covering fintech. No, no, no. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So this is his universe. Yeah, I'm not saying he's right.

I have no idea. Guess what? If Bitcoin goes to $70,000 and he's right that the ETF adds 5% to 10% of revenue, it doesn't matter. Coinbase is going to go up another 50%. Why? Because it follows Bitcoin.

The more activity in crypto, the better for Coinbase. How about, what if, what if, there's a lot of money in Coinbase in there solely to bet on the Bitcoin ETF approval that fully plans to sell it and switch to the ETF? If you're making that bet on— Switch to the ETF. No, no, no. I'm saying—

If you're making the bet, if you're front-running the Bitcoin ETF, you're not in Coinbase. You're in Bitcoin. No, because I don't know what you're talking now. You don't know what you're talking about. You don't know what you're talking about. Oh yeah, why? Because institutions can't do that. And even retail investors. You guys are an RIA. Can you just go to the block and chain?

You can just go. The block and chain. You can just go buy the BTC. The old block and chain. If I wanted exposure to the block and chain in my brokerage account, I'm buying Monster. Okay, but for your clients,

you can't do that. I'm buying MicroStrategy. Okay, but for your clients, you can't go to the block and chain and just brokerage account. I'm buying Monster. Okay, but for your clients, you can't do that. I'm buying MicroStrategy. Okay, but for your clients, you can't go to the block and chain and just buy it. MSTR, son. Do you know what this crazy mother****** did

at Stocktoberfest? I remember. I was there. You know that the lady Meltem who talks about crypto? She's like super famous. Tracy called it

and by the way, she was very right. Credit to her. I spoke to her today. You're very right. She's great. No, I know. She's like super famous. Tracy called it Jenny. And by the way, she was very right. Credit to her. Yeah, she was. I spoke to her today. Very right. She's great. No, I know.

I know it was funny. You called her Jenny from the blockchain? Yeah, that was a good line. In front of 400 people, you go, I don't know what Jenny from the blockchain

is talking about. Should have listened to her. That's hilarious. That's something I would say. Oh, man. All right. Do we have to talk about this? By the way, love Meltem.

By the way, shout out Meltem. She's great. Super smart. Cool as shit. By the way, love Meltem. By the way, shout out Meltem. She's great, super smart, cool as shit. By the way, that year, that was a long time ago. That was 26, what? No. It could be 15. Dude, that was Bitcoin 5000. It was 17.

17. Maybe even earlier. I think it was 17. We're going to do favorites. First of all, this wine is incredible. This wine's very good. Let's give people the name one more time. What is it?

Amarone della Valpolicella. Okay. In English, please. English, good. Let's give people the name one more time. What is it? Amarone della Valpolicella. Okay. In English please. English please. It's Italian. Ripple. What English? The red of the wine.

Amarone della Valpolicella. I don't know. What's the English translation to that? I don't know. Jay-Z, you always bring the best wine. I don't know wine, but this is- You call him Jay-Z. You just call him Jay-Z.

I don't think so. Michael Slurringy had two sips of red wine. Jay-Z, you bring the best wine. It's high alcohol. It is. Let's high alcohol. It is. Let's do favorites. What do we have? I'll start.

Okay. I didn't finish this, but it's compelling. There's a documentary on Max, HBO, called Time Bomb. It's about the Y2K thing. And it really is a time capsule. They're talking about the internet internet super highway or something. Oh, it has like clips from 1999. So, Bezos is in there,

obviously, Bill Gates, Steve Jobs. I love shit like that. So, it's talking about how the world was going to crash and burn because of the Y2K

bubble. Not the bubble, I'm sorry. Like the computer coding, we weren't going to be able to transition from 1999 to 2000. They closed the stock exchange

early for that. By the way, there was so much Fed. Speaking of the way, there was so much Fed. I remember the hype. Speaking of M2, there was so much liquidity pumped into the system because they were worried. Yeah. Y2K.

So it was literally like the pandemic of the time. Not just that. The CapEx. I do. CapEx in 1998 and 1999 were off the charts because corporations were updating all their computer equipment just in case. The Fed literally provided so much liquidity because they're worried at the stroke of midnight,

every computer was going to blow up. So they wanted to make sure it was literally the NASDAQ went from like 1100 to 5200. There was a Nike commercial directed by Spike Jones with a jogger running through his neighborhood or her neighborhood and planes are falling out of the sky. And it was like Nike's New Year's Eve commercial that came out at the end of 1999. And it's on YouTube. You could watch it. But that's what they thought was going to happen.

They thought because the computers were built with two digits, not four, it wouldn't recognize that 00 comes after 99, and it's not turn of the century 1900. Yeah. They thought everything was of the century 1900. Yeah. That was the concern. They thought everything was going to blow up. Yeah. Well, we avoided that one.

All right, it's a good one. What is it called? Time bomb? Time bomb. Okay. It's good. Where is that? Max.

Max. All right, JC, what do you got? I want to give a shout out to Arthur Avenue. Okay, go. Say more. How often are you there? I was just there. I was there last summer.

I love it. Auto Zero Novo is my spot. Really? I went to San Gennaro. I like Dominic summer. I love it. Auto Zero Novo is my spot. Really? I went to San Gennaro. I like Dominic's. I went to San Gennaro. I mean, it's one of those places, you know, when you ask, ask Tom Lee, ask Sam Rowe, like two of my favorite Koreans, ask them like, what's the best Korean spot?

They're like, just go to K-Town and just walk down the street. Hold on, hold on. Tom Lee's not Jewish? So, I mean, he's probably like me. Like, you know how I'm Cuban, but like I worked on Wall Street for 20 years, so I'm kind of Jewish, you know? He's probably like that. So.

You ask Italians, they say Arthur Avenue. They don't say Mulberry Street. Let me, a hundred percent. I agree. I agree with that. I'm Cuban. I'm not even Italian. I'm telling you.

Like, Mulberry Street's tiny. Listen. Well-priced. The food is unbelievable and it's the same idea as what Sam Rowe and Tom Lee will say just walk down the street

in Little Korea and the one with the shortest line just go in there you'll be fine yeah and Arthur Avenue is kind of like that

so what did you you got like pizza pasta or you did something dude I went veal parm bone or not bone bone in oh yeah real thin with the bone in kind of sticking off the plate like pizza pasta or you did something dude I went veal parm yeah bone or not bone bone in oh yeah

real thin with the bone in kind of sticking off the plate oh yeah did you see the mozzarella store Casa I drove by it last week there was a line

20 20 deep it's unbelievable there's also a great sandwich place Italian sandwich place up there I went after the I went to the pinstripe bowl in Yankee Stadium

and then we went to Arthur Ave after. Okay. Big shout out, man. So good. Arthur Avenue. If you're in from out of town and you want good Italian food, there's good Italian around. Go up to the Bronx, man. And you can save a few bucks, too.

Joe, what do you got? Save a few bucks on what? It's not that expensive compared to other Italian joints in the city. Oh, yeah, fair. It's not carbon prices. Yeah, I agree. Joe, you got a favorite for us? Favorites? I wasn't prepared.

I just tell you, you're wearing the shit out of that blazer. Is that corduroy? Thank you. Is that corduroy? Wait, is that thin corduroy? Well, sorry. It's laundry day for you guys. It's like a breathable corduroy.

That's thin corduroy, you son of a bitch. Better to be overdressed. Is that velvet? This is Ralph Lauren, sir. This is cashmere. I'm kidding. I'm kidding. I'm kidding. No, it's always laundry.

It's always laundry day for bad Nick. It's baby gap. He dresses like it's laundry day every day. Go to Hawaii if you get a chance. Where were you? I was just there for a week. I went to Oahu, Kauai, and Maui. I went with the old chef from SW.

And we got to hang out with Shep Gordon. Watch Supermensch. Have you ever seen Supermensch? No. Chef Gordon's the amazing manager of Alice Cooper, Luther Vandross, so many musicians. And Emeril Lagasse created the Superchef and Celebrity Chef stuff. But anyways, it's probably the happiest and most peace of mind I've been. Fahmy's connected.

Fahmy's connected. Fahmy's super connected. I was there for a week. Joe, somebody one time was like how does Joe know all of these people I was like I don't know they owe him money

they were all buying stocks below the 50 day didn't work out pay up Hawaii is the best pay up Hawaii Shep Gordon says

his blood pressure is 20 points lower on Maui than when he goes to California I haven't been to Hawaii since my honeymoon I should go back same it's magic

go back if you get a chance take a break from the markets if you get a chance I know it's from the markets if you get a chance. I know it's expensive and all this, but just if you get a chance, it's literally just the – How did you fly out of New York or Logan? Vegas. Flew out. It was in Vegas.

And I flew out from there. Best place ever. What's the flight length from Vegas? Five hours? Same as here to Vegas. It's five hours. Oh, that's great. Yeah.

So it's nice to – five, and a half, depending on the winds. But Oahu, North Shore, some of the most craziest surfers, like 20 to 25-foot waves. Amazing. You just sit there. You don't blink for three hours. And Joe, you just had your 50th birthday. I did. Happy birthday, Joe.

Thank you. So I was with you, I think, on your birthday week. Yeah. We didn't get to the party, but we hung out. Yeah. And you told me the party was crazy. I got to play drums with Sebastian Bach singing on stage. It doesn't suck, right?

It was fun. It was fun. Thank you, guys. Thanks to Joe Fahmy for being our resident rock star. Love you, Joe. Love you guys more. How do people want to connect with you, dude? People love your trader insight, your wisdom.

Three, four, seven. Where do you want them to go? Just go to my website, joefami.com. Joefami.com. It's spelled F-A-H-M-Y. Okay. What could they do there? They could learn more about your process.

They could sign up. I don't update the site. There's really not much. No, I'm kidding. You can, yeah. I have an educational product. I manage money. You can contact me there.

I'm happy to. All right. Awesome. Question on the show today. Thank you so much. Thank you for coming. No, I have an educational product. I manage money. You can contact me there. I'm happy to. All right, awesome. Question on the show today. Thank you so much. I love you guys. And JC, allstarcharts.com as always. And what else should we tell people to do? You could follow me on LinkedIn.

How many different things do you have that people can subscribe to? I know there are packages, but then there's like solo things. Listen, we have our, our, our sort of flagship institutional product that, you know, was originally designed for, you know, hedge funds and things like that, which was great. And we opened it up to the retail community at an affordable price. And we just blew up from there. I mean, you remember, and, you know, it's really cool because we, we get to talk to the biggest portfolio managers in the world and we get to talk to people that are learning how to trade options for the first time and everybody in between. So it really gives us great perspective.

And, you know, you talk to people who talk to a lot of people and they'll tell, financial advisors, portfolio managers at hedge funds, people managing their own accounts that have full-time jobs, a lot of financial advisors for sure, right? Because we help with our – It's not often you hear from people that are putting out research about how valuable it is to get feedback from that research. I do it for free just for the information. Well, Kathy talks about that, like why she puts stuff out on Twitter. She wants the pushback. She wants people to say, here's why you're wrong. It forces her to look again.

So you get that same kind of push and pull. Also, I've gotten good over the years at being able to look around the corner and being able to sort of gauge sentiment by the feedback that we're getting by the types of communications that we're receiving there's just a ton of value there which leads me to believe though no matter how rich i get i i can't imagine a situation where i'm not sharing my ideas because the information that we get from that feedback you and i are the opposite. I get no feedback whatsoever. My partners keep me in the dark whenever possible. I have no publicly facing email address. Chris reads my emails.

I think he sends me one out of a hundred. I don't read comments. I have comments disabled on Twitter, and I don't tweet anymore. I'm like the exact opposite of you. John, cut his fucking mic. No, I like it. Listen, different strokes for different folks. Bear market. I have no feedback whatsoever, different strokes for different folks. Pull market, bear market.

I have no feedback whatsoever. It's a great feeling. You're also, hold on. You're also the CEO of an investment advisory. Allegedly. Allegedly. Fine, right? Nobody knows what you actually do, right?

It's not been proven. Right? I mean, these guys are working, right? You're just sitting here drinking, talking shit right in your mouth, right? I live in a feedback-free zone. Fine. I mean, these guys are working, right? You're just sitting here drinking, talking shit, running your mouth, right? So. I live in a feedback-free zone. Fine. Michael will tell you.

But you do something very different than me and Favi. That's right. Favi. You and Favi. Hey, guys, thank you so much for listening. Thanks very much. I want to give special thanks to John, who handled the show all by himself today. Wow.

So, Duncan is coming out of surgery. I hear that. Everything. No, he's not. Yes, he is. So Duncan is coming out of surgery. I hear that. Everything. Yes, he is. And everything went really, really well. He now only has two legs. So they took his third leg finally. It was very strange.

And we're so glad he's in recovery. Shout out to Sean, Rob. How strong is this wine? What is he talking about? Nicole, wearing that pink hat. Perfect. All right. Hey, guys.

Thanks so much for listening. Please leave us a rating and review. Visit JoeFami.com. Visit AllStarCharts.com. We love you. We'll see you soon. Bye.