The Compound and Friends - "I'll Invest After The Dust Settles," Nick Colas On Why US Stocks Will Keep Outperforming, Brian Portnoy On How To Write A Book

Episode Date: November 13, 2020

On the latest episode of The Compound Show, Josh is joined by Nicholas Colas (DataTrek Research) to discuss the current stock market opportunities around the world, from the US to Europe to Japan to the Emerging Markets. We get Nick's take on autonomous vehicles, Chinese tech giants and some of the things he's learned from 30 years on Wall Street. Brian Portnoy joins to talk with Josh about the new book they edited together, "How I Invest My Money." Your ratings and reviews go a long way so please keep them coming! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Can we just talk about the vaccine? I love the vaccine. And I obviously love it for the reason that you love it, which is that it's going to save maybe millions of lives, maybe. So of course, we all love it for that reason. But here's why I really, really love it. It's just revealed the truth about investing in such a crystallizing, precise, and perfect way that I don't think there will be a better teaching tool for investors about this one specific concept to come along in a very long time. Like this is it. So let me lay it out for you. And I was listening to Michael Batnick on Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben this morning, and Mike was getting into this a little bit. Do you understand that the vaccine announcement came at an all-time high? Do you

understand that? So it's not like, oh no, the virus, it's raging and it's a pandemic and everything's shut down and what do we do? And then the market falls and falls and falls and falls. And then at an all-time low, you get a vaccine and then the market rebounds. Nope. That's not how it works. This isn't a fucking Disney movie. So we talk to investors all the time. And like, this is like seven years of this. Thousands of people have reached out to the firm. And one of the things that we hear all

the time from very bright, incredible people who have accomplished so much in their lives, people who have started businesses, invented things, you things, attorneys, doctors, scientists, engineers, extremely accomplished people. But it doesn't matter. We always hear the same thing, which is – well, it's two things. The first, why people don't invest. And there's always two things. The first thing is based on whatever the market just did. two things. The first thing is based on whatever the market just did. So in 2014, we were hearing from people who said, well, stocks just went up 30% in 2013 and the market is now at all-time

highs. I can't invest now. That was six years ago, Holmes. Six years ago. We're still hearing that, but we were hearing that then. Can't invest. The market just made a record high. I can't buy at a record high. All right. So I understand that. I understand that. It's called the gambler's fallacy. You see the roulette table, they spin the wheel, it hits black six times. How could you bet black? It's not going to be seven times. Now, of course, every spin is independent of the one that immediately preceded it, but that's how our brains work. That's how Bugsy Siegel built Las Vegas on that premise, by the way. People falling prey to the gambler's fallacy.

All right. So I understand it. But then the second thing that we hear is, and this is like a direct quote, I just want to wait for the dust to settle. I'll invest. I understand long term, blah, blah, blah. I'm going to invest, but I just want to wait for the dust to settle. I want to wait for there to be an outcome of blank. Now, what is blank? Well, you know, it's always some bullshit with like an election somewhere or some kind of like a political, geopolitical thing or a war or whatever. So as soon as blank happens, then I'm going to invest.

But I don't want to invest before that. Okay. remarkable example that I will use forever to help people get past that concept where essentially they're saying they need the certainty of a binary event in order to make a long-term investment decision. So the vaccine happened at an all-time high and so did the election. And in fact, both produced big, big gap-up opens. And in the case of the vaccine, I think it's the biggest gap-up to an all-time high ever, ever. So if you're one of these people that was saying like,

oh, yeah, no, I just want to see what happens with the virus and then I'm going to invest. That's not how it works. The market doesn't let you in, or to let you in, you're paying up. And if you do that repeatedly, your returns are going to be garbage. If you always need the certainty and you always want to buy after the potential negative or the big bad event comes and goes, you're basically, you're buying high all the time. And then something new and unexpected happens, throws the market for a loop,

and then you're selling out on that news. So what you're doing is buying high, selling low. And as my friend Carl Richards likes to say, repeat until broke. Now, you're forgiven for thinking that this is what you're supposed to do. Because there are many charlatans on social media, in the media, etc. And this is what they – this is like their art form. They basically say – they tell you about something that you already know has potential to be bad. And then they scare you into taking some sort of action, either prevent it or to move out of the way of it. Like that's the whole business model is to scare you into making decisions that are not great for you but are great for them because they're selling you some sort of a hedge of something or they're getting you to subscribe to their like alert product or whatever. This is the whole ballgame for them is convincing

you that there's something that you need to do or know prior to some sort of a binary event. Here's what you need to know. If you think you're so clever that you alone have this insight of waiting till after something happens and waiting for the dust to settle, if you think that you uniquely have that insight, you are proven wrong time and time again. through this in the summer of 2016 with Brexit. We just went through this. What happened when they voted to exit Europe? What happened? The exact opposite of what you would have thought. The FTSE rallied to all-time highs. Everything rallied. Risk gone all over the world. Wait, why? I don't understand. They're happy about Brexit? Nope. Actually, this week, there are new problems with Brexit. Britain and the EU are wrestling with the consequence of that vote four years later. It's never ending. So that's not why the stock market went up and everyone got risk on. It went up and everyone got risk on because they exhaled. And all these people who hedged themselves and cashed up and went into short-term bonds and fled the risk they were taking, they all came back into the market after that.

We saw it happen. And then the same thing happened a couple of months later at the election of Donald Trump. Everybody bought. Why did they buy? They all love Trump? No. In fact, Wall Street was telling everyone that Trump was going to be a disaster for the market. It's because all the hedges came off.

Said, oh, the election's over. All right. I guess we'll buy back all the stuff we sold a month ago. It happens time and time again. So what did you think was going to happen with this election? What did you think? You were the only one sitting on the sidelines? Well, you weren't. $150 billion went into fixed income ETFs this year. These are ETFs that are yielding basically nothing in inflation-adjusted terms. You actually probably lose money. You had a trillion dollars in US bond ETFs.

We broke that record this year. So you thought you were the only one on the sideline? You're going to wait till the dust settles? Well, they didn't let you in. If you got yourself all hedged up going into the election, you ended up buying back at a high, paying up for stocks. And then what happened? Then you get the vaccine at the same time. It's unbelievable. You get a vaccine like a week after the election, almost to the day. And what did you think was going to happen? You have 30 or 40 of the most cutting edge pharmaceutical and biotech companies on the planet, sparing no expense, throwing every dollar they have into researching a way to stop this virus. What did you think was going to happen? Nobody would figure it out. The virus would be with us forever. That was your expectation. Come on, come on. So now Pfizer lets it be known that they've got a vaccine with a 90% efficacy. It's unbelievable. So now stocks gap up to a record high.

I think it's the biggest gap up ever. In fact, in the history of the stock market, it's the biggest gap up ever into an all-time high. Never happened before. Never happened before. What is that about? I'll tell you what it's about. That's about all of the other millions of people who said, I'm going to let the dust settle.

I'll invest, but let's see what happens with the vaccine. I'll invest after. Okay, here you go. Buy high. Buy high. All right. So this is like, I think, just such an important investment moment. This is such an important time capsule that everyone wants to keep in the back of their

mind about how this stuff actually works. Because in a year, in two years, in five years, in 10 years, there's going to be that next big bad thing where you want to wait for the dust to settle. And what I want you to think about is the sound of my Long Island accent telling you that is not successful investing. And then the other Long Island accent I want you to think about is Billy Joel's. Think about We Didn't Start the Fire. He goes from 1950, I think it ends in 1990. He does four decades of big, bad, scary, anxious moments in human history, in American history. This whole litany of things.

And some of them, like who even gives a shit? Belgians in the Congo. What? Thalidomide? Huh? Cola wars? Really? Was that?

People were freaking out about that? That song came out 20 years ago though. He could have done a sequel, right? Or 30 years ago, excuse me. He could have done a sequel last 30 years. He's still around. Maybe he will because the dust never settles. The fire never stops. It was always burning since the world's been turning. And mark my words, two years, we'll be talking to new potential clients and they'll be saying the same thing. I just want to wait for the dust to settle on blank. Whatever the new blank is, I don't know where it's going to be. And we'll have that same conversation because that's what we do, right? That's what we do. But I want you to remember that. Okay. We have a great show today. I have two extremely

bright guests and I'm so excited for this. First up, we're going to talk to Nick Colas. Nick Colas has been on Wall Street for 30 years. He started in equity research. He's covering the auto industry. We're going to ask him about autonomous vehicles. He did some money management, some investment banking. Nick was a senior equity analyst at First Boston. He worked for Steve Cohen, answered directly to Cohen at SAC. And you probably know Nick's name from his morning emails at Convergex and now at his current firm, Datatrack Research. morning emails at Convergex and now at his current firm, Data Trek Research. Data Trek Research, morning email blast from Nick Colas is unbelievable. I love it. People love it, thousands of people. So Nick's going to tell us about some of the stuff he's learned 30 years on the street. We're going to ask him about international stocks. Should you buy Europe? Should you buy Japan? Should you buy emerging markets? How do those asset classes work? What do they do relative to the S&P? What's the case against them or for them from now forward? So we'll get into all that stuff. We're going to ask Nick about Tesla, GM's cruise, whether or not

your car is going to drive you to work anytime soon, and then some of the things that he's learned from his career. So I think you're going to like that a lot. We're also going to talk to my co-author of the new book, How I Invest My Money, Brian Portnoy. Portnoy is one of the foremost authorities on behavioral investing, I think, in the world. And super bright guy, good friend of mine, Brian. Brian and I are going to talk about how to write a book. What happens when you have an idea for an investing book or any kind of book? What do you do? Who do you talk to? How do you get it published? So we're going to do all of that. And we're going to talk about what's going on on the street and behavioral investing and all kinds of great stuff.

I think you're going to really like it. And Brian's a great guy. So we're going to do Nick. Then we're going to talk to Brian. Duncan's going to do the disclaimer first. We're going to dive right in. And thank you so much for coming to listen to the show this week. I think it's going to be a treat. All right, let's go. Welcome to the Compound Show with downtown Josh Brown. Josh is the CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management. All opinions expressed by Josh or any podcast guest are solely their own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Clients of Ritholtz Wealth Management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast.

So first of all, hello, Nick, from Pandemic Long Island. You're in Manhattan right now? I'm in Pandemic Manhattan, yes. Be the last person there, or what's the story? It is certainly thinning out. I mean, I live on the west side of 57th Street and has certainly been very quiet, even though the lights are on in the evening.

Not a lot of people walking around during the daytime. Right. I was in a couple of times over the summer, and I love it. I love the city, and I love being in Manhattan and working, but I'm not going to come in and sit by myself. So I think that's just the way millions of people feel right now. So I don't know when that changes, but we've got some good news this week on the vaccine. So as I've introduced you, you're a 30-year veteran of Wall Street and you're born and raised in New York City too, right? Right.

Do you ever think we'd be in a situation like this or anything even resembling this? Certainly not. No, I mean, living and growing up in New York in the sixties and seventies, it was certainly a little bit of a rough time back then, right? This is a whole different level of craziness. Yeah. The Billy Joel song came on the radio the other day, Miami 2017, where all the New Yorkers end up, I guess, in Florida.

He was a little bit early. All right. So I wanted to ask you about a couple of things that you've been writing about recently. I find your morning letter to just be just incredible. And I was reading you in the Converge X days. And it would always just make me think about things a little bit differently. One of the things that you wrote about this week that I want to begin with, I think the implications of what you're saying are really important. Because I talk to a lot of financial advisors about US stocks, foreign developed market stocks, and then emerging market stocks. And everyone's trying to figure out, well, if we're not getting any income from the bond piece, and US stocks are now at, if not record valuations, pretty close, at least on a price earnings basis, then how do we solve the puzzle of how else to allocate?

Are we looking for dividend paying stocks overseas? Is that the right answer? Are we getting that income from those stocks so that even if they don't do much to the upside, we can almost kind of think about them like a quasi income replacement for bonds? Or is that the wrong way to think about them? And then the whole emerging market piece, at this point, it's a de facto China bet. So I think you looked at this in a very interesting way. You kind of asked the question, are you even rewarded for owning international stocks? And you came to some interesting conclusions. And I'd love to hear directly from you about how you think about this puzzle, this equation.

Sure. Well, as you know, I was a cyclical analyst for a long time. I covered the autos. And so I'm very sensitive to the idea that certain things can work at certain parts of the cycle, even if they're not long-term value creators. The autos being sort of the starting point to that. And I looked at IFA. And this is MSCI IFA, MSCI Emerging Markets. And look back over the last couple of cycles. And it's very clear that those groups do work early in the cycle

and late in the cycle. They work early in the cycle. Let me stop you for those who are unaware. When we talk about MSCI IFA, it's Europe, developed Asia, and Far East. And so it's like Canada's in there, and Australia's in there, and European continental countries are in there. And then in Asia, you've got Hong Kong stocks. And what else is in there? Japan is actually the biggest single slug of IFA. And Japan, by the way, at a 29-year high or a 30-year high right now, and nobody's even talking about it. But okay, you're looking at IFA, EM, and what did you find? Yeah. So if you want to follow along as we're talking, EFA is the symbol for MSCI IFA,

the iShares product, and EEM is the symbol for emerging markets. So you can kind of follow along with this. The big issue is that, as you mentioned, over the long term, these things have not created value. They're still below their 2008 highs, it's 2020 where obviously both the S&P and the Russell are well beyond their 2007, 2008 highs. And so these are really tough to own for a long period of time for good structural reasons we can talk about, but they did work in the late part of the last cycle in 06 and 07 because you did have an uptake of marginal demand all around the world and some pricing power around the world, which gave these companies and sectors a way to grow profitability.

And they worked again in 2009, meaning they beat the S&P because they got so drummed down during the crisis. Aside from that, they haven't really been all that good. IFA hasn't been that good. And EM, as a matter of fact, has underperformed at various points over the last 10 years, like the single worst performing assets of all the major asset groups in 2011, 2013, 2015, 2018, and was the next to worst in 2014. So it's not a group you can really own for a long period of time. But because we are in the early part of a cycle, hopefully, I think there is some way to rationalize at least looking

at these groups. Yeah. So you point out that although over the long term, over the last 20 years, US investors have not really been rewarded for global diversification, and especially in the last 10 years. But you point out that there have been some times, like some specific timeframes, the early cycle or the late cycle, where you have been rewarded for having these as part of your portfolio. So how did you arrive at that conclusion? And is that even the kind of thing that investors can do something about if they're not even sure when these cycles are starting or ending? Yeah, it's a great point. In terms of methodology, we just looked at the total return of S&P 500,

Russell 2000, high-grade, high-yield bonds, cash, EM, MSCI EM, MSCI E-funds said, okay, what's the total return year by year? And as I mentioned, in 2006 and 2007, MSCI EFA and EM both outperformed the S&P 500. And in 2009, they also both outperformed by pretty nice amounts. So you did get rewarded for buying these things towards the bottom. Ironically, that's not been the case in 2020. If you had bottom ticked these things to the day, you still wouldn't be beating the S&P. Yeah, the S&P had a better recovery than foreign stocks generally. I think China is ahead of S&P this year on its own, but I don't think you could say the same for any other big, large markets. Yeah. And I have to go back and look and

see what MSCI China has done with Tencent and Alibaba blowing up the past couple of days, because that's a huge chunk of that index. So it might be that we end up getting a little reversion to the mean as we end the year on China. One of the things people have pointed out, critics of global diversification have said, this is not really about countries or geographies. What this is really about is the industry mix in all of these markets. And so you do that breakdown and you're looking at those sector weightings are so far apart from each other. And so that seems like very plausible to me that, for example, a bet on Europe is largely a bet on commodities, resources, industrials.

You know that they're 25% of the index and they're about as big as tech is for the U.S. index. So there's something to that idea that you really need a strong global economy to expect anything out of Europe. Do you agree with that statement, broadly speaking? Absolutely. And I would also lump financials in there. Financials, 15% of IFA is financials. We're 10% and more like 10. And we're like 10. And honestly, we're more like five because half the financials in the S&P are money managers versus banks, where it's a much bigger slug of banks, particularly in Europe, obviously, and in Japan. So, yeah, these are much more. Oh, you're saying like our financials are like BlackRock is like a huge financial here. Yep.

It's not a bank. Okay, got it. So, I think the point's exactly right. The EFL in particular is just a mammoth cyclical call and not just a cyclical call like, oh, the economy gets better, you can own it. It's like, it's got to get better really fast in order to generate the marginal revenue growth that generates the marginal operating income growth that creates excitement for those stocks. We had a moment like that in 2017. It's one of the best years of my career in the stock market. Everything went up. And there was this theme,

global synchronized recovery. And I guess the trade war ended that in early 18. But during 17, you had big performance out of foreign developed markets. That's not the kind of thing that you see repeating in a year like 2021 when on a synchronized basis, theoretically, we're all rebounding from the pandemic year? It absolutely should be the case. Absolutely should be the case. I think it is early to make a definitive call because look at how different, say, the lockdowns or the renewed lockdowns have been in Europe versus so far in the U.S. We're not doing them. We're not doing them. But Europe is handling the labor side of the situation so differently from the U.S. In Europe, predominantly, they're basically paying companies to keep workers on the payroll. We've gone about it basically paying the unemployed person separately, and that person is actually unemployed. My suspicion is that you're going

to see a better uptake and a better labor market recovery in the US and a more productive one in the US in 2021 than you will in Europe, which will very slowly have to unwind people that are still not required by their employer and figure out how to get them off the payroll and what to do with them next. And so I think the pace of the recovery will be slower in Europe than the US. Right. Europe just said, we're going to handle your payroll, send it to us. And we didn't do that here. We did it for a couple of months with PPP, but it has never been a structural answer in the US. It has always been an individual payment to an unemployed worker, which ultimately, well, it sucks to be unemployed, obviously.

It does, that payment hopefully ties you over and you can get a better job or a new job in an area of the economy that can really use you. Okay, so we got the October unemployment report. And it looks as though the sectors with the biggest recovery last month were exactly what we were hoping for hospitality, leisure, like they had the biggest improvements. Obviously, they're off the lowest base. But that sort of seems like what we wanted to have seen at this stage in the recovery, no? It is. And I would also add that participation rates for 25 to 54-year-olds, kind of the core of the working age population, they've stabilized and started to rise off the bottom. And so my big worry has been we lose a lot of participation because the economy is weak for three or four more quarters.

we lose a lot of participation because the economy is weak for three or four more quarters. And we had made so much progress on that in the last couple of years that it would be a shame to see it kind of revert back down to a typical post-recession decline of participation that ultimately removes a lot of people from the consumption patterns in the US and really drive a recovery. Okay. So I want to go back to emerging markets now. And you were talking about this idea that if you think we have a concentration problem in the S&P 500, well, first of all, emerging markets are almost entirely China, Taiwan, and South Korea. And then even within the top stock holdings, if you thought our fangs were overly dominant, it's really five Chinese technology companies or five Asian technology companies that are dominating the EM index.

So it's like Taiwan Semi, it's BABA, it's Tencent. So do you see that getting less extreme, specifically as it pertains to what China did recently? Or is it just always going to trend toward larger and larger tech giants? And if you're an investor in these indices, you just have to live with that. I think it is more the latter. I think that ultimately disruptive technology is so profound and that trend is so long lasting. is so profound and that trend is so long lasting, but you will always see a lot of concentration at the top of a market cap weighted index like EM or the S&P 500. You see it much less, for example, in the Russell, which when a company gets big enough, it graduates out of the Russell until you don't have a lot of sector concentration or name concentration at the top of a smaller cap

index. But in terms of the largest cap indices, definitely. Ironically, you don't see it in IFA. And that's a big tell because IFA has got basically no real tech in it. The biggest five names in IFA are Nestle, Roche, Novartis, ASML, which is tech, and AstraZeneca. That's 8% of the IFA. There's one tech name in it. Both the S&P and emerging markets are 23% to 27% in the top

five names, and they're mostly all tech. Yeah. IFA, you called it a hodgepodge. It has no rhyme or reason for how it's weighted. It's just big names because they just... SAP used to be much higher up in the cap rankings, but obviously with its quarter being a bit of a disaster, it's fallen down quite a bit. There's just not much tech. There's not much disruption in the IFA index. Why aren't the Japanese technology companies more globally dominant and larger in market cap? They were 20 years ago for both bubble reasons and for good technical reasons. Sony was a much bigger company. The short answer is there wasn't much innovation in the past 20 years. They outsourced most of the manufacturing to China, which is fine.

It creates a lower cost product, but, you know, they didn't create all the things that enabled the internet to the same degree that U.S. companies did. As Marc Andreessen said many years ago, software eats the world, not hardware. You know, they were great at hardware. They didn't do anything in software. Right. And then South Korea kind of took away consumer electronics from them. Yep. Okay.

All right. So I found it interesting that Japan now looks as though it wants to take out all-time record historic highs, which is three decades plus in the making at this point. Do you see it that way? Or do you just think it's the natural ebb and flow of asset prices and there's nothing really profound happening in the Japanese stock market that's causing this? What's your take when you see that? Because that's the span of your career. When I was in business school, we were talking about why Japan was a new paradigm of stock valuations. And there was a lot of analysis of the crossholdings that were very common there. The short answer to your question, I think it's basically just it's taken 30 years of compounding at 5% to get us back to where we were back then.

And that's fine. But a 5% CAGR is not really anything to get super excited about when it's been 13% for the past 10 years in the US. So I think it's helpful. It's good to see. But ultimately, it really signals, A, how much of a bubble that was in 1990, and kind of the slow growth of Japanese economy since. Right. It's like it was such a bubble that it took three decades to fully recover from. That's really the takeaway. Not that there's anything special happening with Japan right now. Hey, it's tough to get excited about as an investment, a country with negative population growth. I think then your takeaway is that if somebody is going to tactically be allocating

to foreign markets overseas and is doing so in relation to where they think we are in the economic cycle, then that's been more rewarding than having just a blanket allocation to these regions. And then the retort to that might be something along the lines of, well, it's not realistic for most investors, at least, to know anything about where we are in the cycle, and then how much of that is being priced into those markets. So what would you say to that? I don't want to call it a pushback because you're not actually advocating for anyone to do anything, but how would you answer the person that says it to you that way?

I would put it this way. I would say, great for me on a scale of one to 10, how confident you are in a global economic recovery in 2021 based on everything we know today. If your answer is eight, nine, or 10 out of 10, then you can own IFA because that's such a cyclical area with still beleaguered banks and a lot of heavy industry. But if we are maxing out economic growth in four quarters, IFA is going to outperform. Just by weightings, there's no doubt about it. If your answer is like a four to a seven, I think you can do emerging markets because you are going to get some growth out of that. There's a little bit of risk from being so overweighted and only

bobbing 10 cent, but there's a lot of EM financials in the emerging markets index. And so if you're kind of middling okay with growth, then you can go there. If your answer is zero through four, you got to stick to the S&P because the rest of these other indices just don't have the right makeup to leverage what will be a slower no growth economy next year. For that, the S&P with the heavy tech weighting is okay. Now, what if I say I accept that? However, I feel as though I'm being paid for the risk of there not being a big global recovery. I'm paying 14 and a half times for EM as an asset class. This is your math. I'm paying 16.5 times for IFA versus 20 plus times earnings for the S&P 500. So what is that, a 20% discount in IFA and more for emerging markets? happened to cheap assets and there might be something unforeseen that nobody is considering right now that reverses prior history with performance, you know, one versus the other.

Yeah, no, it's a very good point. And I would say EFA and EM have been cheap for a solid decade. This isn't just a 2020 phenomenon. It's like a 120 month phenomena. And so I think to internalize that and act on that as an investment observation, you have to tell a very clear story about 2021 being some kind of massive, massive mean reversion year. And for that, you need an explanation, you need a catalyst. Because what's going to make the world all of a sudden wake up in three months and say- Regulation of tech giants doesn't do it for you? Because that's the one I'm hearing the most frequently. I think that that is one issue. Frankly, though, we're seeing more of that risk in China than we are in the U.S. last week. And I think that's for a bunch of actually very

good reasons. I don't think the Chinese regulators are off base here. But I'd say if you're worried about that, the correlations of these assets ultimately are still pretty high. So if you think the S&P is going to be down 20% next year, I'm not sure that EM or IFA is going to be down less. Because in that kind of risk off environment, you do get liquidations of higher risk assets, which these things clearly are. I feel as though e-commerce and technology companies in China trade more with the NASDAQ than they trade with MSCI China. Am I wrong about that? I don't know. That is an excellent question, and I will do the work on that because that is a great observation. All right. So we'll have you back to discuss that. I want to get into autonomous vehicles because a lot of people might not know this about you, but you are a senior analyst covering the auto sector.

Was that at First Boston? Yep. Okay. So you were covering these companies in this space way before anyone was talking about autonomous or electric anything. electric anything. And I hear takes from technologists all the time about what autonomous vehicles will mean in terms of technology and which companies have what kind of advantage. But I'd love to hear it from the perspective of someone who's covered the auto sector. How wild are some of the claims being made? What do you think is the real timetable? And which companies are you most excited about in terms of their ability to really deliver

robo-taxis, et cetera? So my bottom line on all of this is very simple. Autonomous is certainly coming. It will be here. It will be here at some point in the next 10 years, I would say. It is not 24 to 36 months because if for no other reason, it's been 24 to 36 months for the last five years and we haven't seen major developments. And so I am skeptical on any kind of near-term breakthrough because as prosaic as driving may seem while you're doing it, it is a really intense challenge for AI and machine learning and sensors to coordinate in a way that can do it safely and consistently. And so it's a little bit hard to believe that it can come through quickly, but it will come.

As far as how much that remakes the world, I will just say that there are something like 250 million cars and trucks in the US right now. And so it's going to take a long time to cycle those vehicles out of the system and replace them with autonomous vehicles. People will still continue to drive on their own for a very long period of time. The turnover rate of new cars into the system and old cars leaving the system is incredibly slow. Our average car is like 12 years old in the US. So it will happen, but it will happen very slowly. There'll be some exciting

use cases, but it will happen slowly. As far as who's doing the best job domestically, I'd say it's got to be GM in terms of actually taking an outside capital, carving off a separate group for electric and autonomous and doing a pretty good job on developing that technology in a still old school framework. You know, the other side of the coin is Tesla. You know, as an auto analyst, I obviously thought about Tesla a lot over the last five years. And I don't know about the valuation, but I will say that, you know, convincing the American public that electric vehicles are cool and a luxury product and worth buying is a really valuable thing and a really unique thing. Because I was driving electric vehicles in prototype form in the 90s and no one cared.

Yeah. So GM seems to, I think they're going into San Francisco next month as an autonomous, kind of like an Uber, but with no human driver in the car. And I think Waymo is doing that in the suburbs of Phoenix, but San Francisco seems to be bigger potential and a bigger challenge. Do you feel that that's going to go smoothly or could a setback there set back the whole industry if, God forbids, somebody gets hurt or something goes very wrong? Well, I mean, remember that GM announced the same thing in New York a year ago and it never showed up. So it's just an announcement so far. Right. So we'll see if it actually takes hold. Hopefully,

it's not the same vaporware idea that New York ended up being. Would you get in one or not yet? You don't want to be first. I probably would get in just from the research value of actually experiencing it. Yeah. And let's face it, how fast can you go in New York? Yeah. You're doing three miles an hour across town if you're lucky. Hold on. I will tell you that I've always said for years that autonomous will have the toughest time of all working in New York City because the only thing that keeps traffic and pedestrians moving in the right way in New York is the fear of death. I also think

sometimes you have to run red lights and stuff just to keep things moving. You need a little bit of a New York edge to actually move traffic. If everyone obeyed the lights, it would be even slower than it is now. Yeah, all true. I know you're not supposed to say that out loud. Yeah, all true. I know you're not supposed to say that out loud. All right. So I want to wrap up with you. So you launched Data Trek with Jessica, who I suppose you've been doing research with her for how long?

We have been doing it for three years before we started Data Trek. So six, seven years now in total. All right. So congrats to you both. Thank you. And Data Trek is a really great product. And I love reading your stuff for a long time now. And you had done something on the third anniversary of it, but it's more than 30 years you're on the street where you were just talking about how a career in finance and the investment process both inexorably shape how we think about life in general. So the first thought on that theme, how a career in finance changes you as a person, you say the value of diversification and low correlations. So talk about that a little bit. Yeah. So this is something that I really

try to pick up even in Chicago in business school. And I heard Gene Fama, who later won a Nobel Prize, say one day, nobody smart who teaches here should buy a house on the south side of Chicago because it's bad diversification, because your real estate value is tied up with the value of the university, as is your salary. And it's stupid to have such highly correlated assets. And that's when I had my first aha moments about what diversification really means. And that's the way you should really think about it. Your assets, your income, particularly on Wall Street, living in New York are so highly correlated. It's very hard to break that correlation, but in theory, you really should try. Right. And Gene is basically saying you're making a double bet on this university by also owning real estate near

it. I think that's interesting. We struggle with that working in finance because we have careers that are tied to how well the stock market does. Whether we like it or not, many of us, we have to face that reality. And you talked a little bit about that as well and the need to maybe have more cash. Yeah. I've always found it interesting. And I don't know, I've had thousands of conversations with people who work in finance over 30 years and almost to a person, everybody holds more cash than the models say they should because they understand intuitively this high correlation between the value of their apartment and the value of their weekend home and the value of their job. And they understand they need a couple of years of cash sitting in the bank at any point just to feel sane. Right. It's not like they can, from a regulatory standpoint,

go out and short the stocks that they're recommending to clients. That wouldn't be a better approach. I think people would look at that and say, wait, you're hedging the advice that you're giving me? I don't know if I like that. The other one I wanted to touch on is you talked about there is always a reason. And you worked with Steve Cohen at SAC and just talking about why prices move the way they do. Can you get into that a little bit? Sure. I mean, I learned two things from Steve. That was one of them. And this was something he drilled into our heads every day, was that there is always a reason for a stock price moving. It is never just the market. Somebody is making a decision to buy or sell on information that you may or may not have.

And if you don't understand that information and know it as well, you're behind the eight ball. You don't have as much of an edge as you may need to make money in this trade. So it was a very good reminder. And I think about this every day in terms of why is the market doing what it's doing? There is always a reason. You may not know it, but there is a reason. And the second derivative of that observation is you can find out what it is, but is it worth your time? And ultimately, investing and research is as much a time allocation challenge as it is getting things right and wrong. You have to allocate your time to the right things, the things that matter, so that you find the information that you need without wasting time on stuff you don't.

I think that's so important. I want to send people to learn more about your research and subscribe to what you and Jessica put out because I think it's so excellent. So much perspective and historical ideas. And I think you guys cover such a wide range of topics. They all have to do with investing, but do a really nice job. So datatreckresearch.com is the best place for them to go. Yes, it is. And you can just sign up for a two week free trial of the whole product, no credit card, no information needed, just an email and you're good to go. That's awesome. So Nick, I just want to congratulate you on three years at Datatreck

and 30 years on the street. And thank you so much for all the great stuff you put out into the world. We, the readers, really appreciate it. Hey, guys. It's downtown Josh Brown. I am here with my friend and now co-author, Brian Portnoy. Brian Portnoy is the founder of Shaping Wealth. He is one of the most well-known experts on behavioral finance.

Is that the right, good enough? Okay, investor psychology, behavioral finance. One of the most highly regarded experts on the topic in America and possibly the world. Who knows? But Brian is my co-author on the new book, How I Invest My Money. We are incredibly excited about the fact that it's coming out in mid-November. But this is Brian's third book, and it's my third book. So I thought what we would do today is talk a little bit about what it takes to do a book, because probably every one of you

thinks that you have a book inside probably every one of you thinks that you have a book inside of you and you might. So how does that work? We're going to get into it in a second. Stick around. So this is your third book. When did you do your first book? I forgot. The Investor's Paradox came out in 2014. The Geometry of Wealth in 2018. Okay. So I did Backstage Wall Street. I almost said Backstreet Boys. It came out in 2012. I wrote it in 2011. Basically, you write a book and then a year later, it comes out pretty much, right? Yeah, it takes a while. It takes a while. And then I collaborated with Jeff Mackey and we did something fun about like Wall Street pundits, of which I guess I am one and Jeff is one. But we interviewed Kramer and all these famous like people that go on TV and stuff and talk about the markets and what it's like behind the scenes.

So this is a little bit of a behind the scenes. I guess that's like a recurring theme with me. Backstage Wall Street was like, this is what really goes on in a brokerage firm. Clash of the Financial Pundits was like, this is what goes on in the financial media. This is the real people's lives. And now what are we doing with this one? Yeah. Behind the scenes. Right. Behind the scenes. Well, it's funny because, you know, the financial services, the whole money business, it just seems so opaque and maybe even a little bit dangerous. And like the books and the movies and, you know, the larger than life characters in the real world that get splashed across the headlines. And so, you know, I'm sure you have the same experience in New York that I

have in Chicago where, you know, people know you're in the money business and they're kind of like, oh, you know, I'm not an expert in that. So, you know, I can't even talk about it. It's like this other world. And if they only knew and maybe because of your books and mine, maybe they know a little bit more about what really takes place. And it's actually filled with like normal flawed people trying to make sense of things. That's a really good point. I think people are like, oh, you work on Wall Street. You must be doing some crazy shit. Not really.

No. Not actually. But that's a good point that you made. All right. So is there even a financial celebrity? Like I just I think it's Jim Cramer basically. Like if you went to a mall in the Midwest or in the South, like away from New York, Boston, LA, right? You just like went to like a suburban shopping center and you ask people who's somebody famous that is involved with money or who's like a –

I think like they would – Maybe. If you show them a picture of Kramer, they would say that's Jim Kramer. That's it though. We don't have like celebrities that have crossed over. Oh, maybe like the Shark Tank people, right? Yeah. Like Damon John and them.

But I think that's pretty much it, right? Right. Yeah. Like Damon, John and them. But that's pretty much it. Right. I mean, Tony Robbins has made his way into this space. But that's not what he's known for. Right. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, probably your world of Manhattan, Long Island is a little different than where I am in the city of Chicago. Wrigley Field is a mile, a mile straight behind me. Right. My street is, you know, all single family homes with, you know, families. I think I'm the only person on the block out of 30 families that's involved with finance. I mean, people are just doing something else. They don't, not only do they not know, they kind of don't

care. Oh, I don't have it. I don't live around any, any, uh, wall street people. Um, Oh yeah. Okay. No, like on long Island, if I lived in the North shore, I wouldn't be able to breathe because everybody is CNBC, you know, they watch financial television and they read the wall street journal. And honestly, like it would, it would not be pleasant, but they have all the good restaurants. Cause that's where all the money is. I live on the South shore and my friends are like, you know, they own pharmacies, they own insurance companies, very successful, but they're not, they're not like stock market people.

And I, I, I thank God for that every day. Yeah. Yeah, yeah. It actually puts us probably both in a position to step outside a little bit and look back in. Yeah, I think that's a good point. What if we said like, so you do a book like this, and basically let's back up a little bit. The book is basically going to people that work in finance, and they're financial advisors, they're traders, they run hedge funds, whatever it is, they work, they're professional people in our industry. What if we said like, you go to all these people that work in finance and they're financial professionals and you just

say like, tell me about what, don't tell me what other people should do. Don't tell me how other people should invest. How do you invest? You earn money. You have to save. You have things that you're investing for. What are you doing with your money? And nobody's really done. I don't think anyone's really done that before. Do you? No, no. I mean, if I go back 20 years to when I was working at Morningstar and part of the interview process as a fund analyst was, hey, how much money do you have invested in your own fund? You know, zero to 5%, five to 10%. I mean, that that's as much as it got. So in terms of my experience, people don't really want to say it, which is why, you know, when did your blog come out? Like a year and a half ago? Has it already been two years? I don't remember. I read it and I was like, this is just really helpful. It's really insightful. You've got a wife, you've got a couple of kids, you've got things you want to accomplish.

accomplish those goals. And there's something so straightforward about it. It's almost revolutionary. And so, yeah, that's when I, I think I just texted you. I was like, dude, this is, yeah, this is great. You know, I spoke to Jeff Benjamin this week. He got an early copy of the book from you. So Jeff Benjamin is like one of the most tenured storied reporters at Investment News, which covers our industry. And he's like, I actually tried to do an article about this years ago, where I asked all these financial advisors, give me data or give me spreadsheets on your own personal investments. And it didn't really go anywhere. So when he got this book, he's like, yeah, this is what I've always wondered. No. So when he got this book, he's like, yeah, this is what I've always wondered. He was blown away by Christine's chapter. So Christine Benz from Morningstar, who's a fund analyst extraordinaire, and she writes and she speaks and she's just an all around amazing commentator. Head of personal finance for the firm. I mean, globally. So like she's writing about everything that's important to regular people.

So Jeff's like, oh, my God, Christine is putting ticker symbols in her chapter. Like she's she's saying these are the funds that I own and this is the share class. He's like, I've never seen anything like this before. So I thought that was really cool to get that reaction from him yeah so the illustrations i think really really make the book not that the chapters themselves don't stand up on their own but i like the fact that there's like a visual representation of uh each person's i guess we call it a way of life right yeah like each person's philosophy on what what they're doing with their own money. Well, so it's fun. Carl's participation in the project went through a few different iterations because once you and I decided that this could make a cool book project and Harriman House said, yeah, we'd love to publish it. We began to reach out to some initial people like christine and morgan and and

carl was one of those first calls i mean he's just profoundly insightful and the fact that he comes at it from a almost a design or an imagery point of view like it's just kind of legendary and so i called him up and i said we'd love you to participate and he said that's great uh and i was pretty excited about that and like two weeks later he calls He's like, I don't want to do it. I'm like, oh, that kind of, okay. I mean, too late. We put your name on the cover already. Yeah, exactly. Exactly. Yeah. You're on the Amazon page already. No. So, but he said, you know, instead maybe I'll just do like one of my sketches. Like that will be my chapter. Like, oh, that's great. Good. Two weeks later, he calls me back. I don't want to do the sketch.

Like, huh. All right. I mean, again, do what you want. He's like, but how about, I was thinking, how about I read everybody else's chapter and interpret them from my point of view and draw a custom sketch for them. And I was like, are you frigging kidding me? Like, I'm like, number one, I'm like, you know, that's 25 times more work. It was didn't seem to phase him, it would phase me. And, you know, he was off to the races. So you know, when we collected all these chapters from these amazing contributors, you know, he went ahead and drew a one of one sketch that captured the spirit of what people were writing about. And, you know, I just can't wait for people to see them. They're number one, they're beautiful, but number two, like they're so spot on in terms of how they do capture, you know, sort of what someone's focus is in their money life.

You know how good they are? I don't tweet anymore, but I think I'm going to start putting one of these out a day on Twitter because they're so good. And like, just like, like, like here's, here's Carl's drawing for blanks chapter. blanks chapter. The other thing I was thinking is when we sell the rights to the book to Netflix, like each one of these chapters and hopefully everybody's in, but they do 12 episode season. So maybe they'll pick 12 chapters.

Yeah. And some of these poor advisors that we have who've contributed to the book are now going to have a camera crew in their house for a few weeks. Yeah. Documenting them and interviewing them for each episode. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Vignettes. Maybe we can get a bidding war.

Get Netflix, Hulu. Yeah, Disney Plus, but we'll all have to be in Stormtrooper costumes. Yeah. I mentioned this in the intro. If people read this a la carte, it's fine. Like if you say I'm just going to grab a chapter here and there. I'm not going to sit down and read the whole book all the way through. I think we want you to like be inspired individually by each person's story because we have the whole gamut.

We have people in here that own no bonds. Howard Linsen and he explains why. And then Carolyn McClanahan, I think she said she's half fixed income. Yeah. And then everything in between. So why? And each person's story and explanation for why they're allocated the way they are, that doesn't have to be read in any particular order. But you did structure the book in a certain order, and I'm not – I don't even think we talked about it. Like what, what's, what's the rhyme and reason of the order of chapters?

Other than the order in which they came in? Yeah. Besides that. No, you didn't do that. No, we, we, we didn't. There's another level, which is that the financial services industry needs to be much more diverse, but the trend is positive. And so we reached out to friends from our Twitter world, from our day-to-day working lives. And so the idea was to just create sort of just a collage of different perspectives. So, you know, instead of going, you know, it starts off with Morgan because, I mean, he's fabulous. Morgan Housel. Yeah, Morgan Housel. Well, I think it's like the best writer in finance today.

Yeah, Michael Jordan of financial writing. That's a lead-off hitter. Okay, that makes sense. Yeah, so we had lead-off hitter. And then, you know, Christine is number two because she's awesome. And at that point, I'd have to look in the book to see what the order was. But it's really just sort of a mix of people very early in their career, later in their career. very early in their career, later in their career.

Yeah. You know, we've got, you know, men, women, portfolio managers, financial advisors, you know, people whose families have been, you know, in America for, you know, 12 generations. And, you know, our friend Desarte, his parents moved here not that long ago. you know our friend Desarte his parents moved here not that long ago yeah he's the first generation American and killing it by all accounts killing yeah yeah one thing I'm really proud of what we put together is is the chance for anybody who picks up the book is going to be able to find somebody that they're really comfortable and attracted to their story. They can relate to. Yeah, yeah.

Who they can, yeah, that's a better way of putting it. Like, we've got just a pretty wide array of contributors. And not like with predictable contributions. I mean, you mentioned the word stories earlier. Like, you know, and I point this out out, I think in my concluding chapter, where I try to summarize everything, like we didn't give anybody any instruction. We said, we said, read Josh's blog and get a feel for what he did. You have free license, not just to talk about your portfolio, but your values, your saving, your

spending, your borrowing, your charity work and so forth and have at it. And so tell it like you live it. There's no like fill in the blank. It's a blank slate. You say what you want to say. Yeah. And so like, take, for example, someone who I have a lot of respect for, but, you know, she's just up and coming in the industry. Leanne Miko, a young advisor in California. She's killing it. She's building something special with her financial planning practice. And she told, I don't think she even referred to her portfolio or how she technically invests in the market. she technically invests in the market. She told a story of growing up in financial distress and the mark that that made on her and how now she's giving back through her planning practice.

I mean, it's like goosebumps. It's like, wow, this is like a super personal story. And there were a lot of there were a lot of those stories about like people in their youth being uncertain about where money was coming from. And I think in a lot of cases, it galvanized them to become so passionate about helping others. Like Tyrone's story, okay? Obviously, Desarte's story. Nina O'Neill's story. Cheryl Penny, who was an orphan, basically. Yeah. Cheryl Penny, when you ask him who raised you, it's like his grandfather and the town he grew up in basically raised him up in Maine.

And he had nothing. And look at him now. He's the founder of Dynasty. What are they, $50 billion on their platform? He might be the most successful person I'm friends with that I know well. That's a very common theme. And then another common theme that I saw was the passion about like people arranging their portfolio and their practice, their profession around something that they really care about. And Perth Toll is a great example of. And Tyrone's a great example of that. And I think we did a good job

at finding people that really had that, that passion. And I think it came through. Um, and, uh, those will definitely be the Netflix episodes. All right. A lot of people ask about what it takes to do a book. And I'm sure they ask you too. I think there's a lot of fascination with like, oh, you're a published author. Meanwhile, I've written, I don't know, 15,000 blog posts. No one cares. But I do a book and it's like, you did a book? Yes.

I took the same words I would have thrown up on WordPress and I put them on paper. But whatever. People are like, that's a thing. Okay. And I get it because you know why? I told this to Morgan the other day. In the digital world, everything is free. So who cares?

It's unlimited. You could write a book and put it online and so what? But when you do something like this, there are other people in the chain who have to agree that this is something of value that you're working on. shipping and in the promoting. So that's why it's a little bit more momentous. But we worked with Harriman House, which you brought to the table. I had done my other two books with McGraw-Hill. Why do you like working with Harriman House? And shout out to Craig and Lucy and the whole team. They've been great. But why were they a good partner for this project? Well, first of all, Craig Pierce, who some people know, some people know, but he'll become more prominent over time. He's a fabulous, he's fabulous on multiple levels. He's just a great editor. And I think the editing process or the art of editing is one of the most underrated yet

super important elements to the kind of the creative, you know, to being creative. And I've found in my experience as a writer over the last 10 years, there's a big difference between reading and editing. Lots of people can read. Very few people can edit because it means putting yourself in the author's shoes and really helping them express themselves the best. Craig is, I think, exceptionally good at that. He was introduced to me by our mutual friend, Daniel Crosby, who's written a couple books with

them with a great deal of success. And then I published The Geometry of Wealth with Harriman House. And they were just wonderful partners. You know, my first book was with one of these mega, you know, super mega presses. And, you know, I was just a face in the crowd. Harriman House, you know, they shepherded the project along and, you know, the editing, the artwork, the marketing, like they just, they've become just a very comfortable place to publish our work. I mean, if you recall, so you published your blog. I texted you that day or the next day and I said, basically, this is awesome. And we began to chat and say, hey, it'd be kind of cool if we got a group of people together to make a book of these. And I said, you know, hold on, let me call Craig. And I called him and he's like, are you kidding me? This is a great idea. He was in, I think literally from you publishing your blog to me texting you to us having like a physical

book contract was four days. We didn't pitch him. He was like, this is a great idea. Let's do it. I love people like that. That's the way I am. No bureaucracy, no BS. And then as the project got underway, I started to panic on you because the pandemic was like starting to happen. And I was like running, I'm like running a firm with 30 something employees. And we're like, we have deadlines. Like we have to get contributors to say yes. Then we have to follow up and get them to actually, all right, you said yes. Where's your shit?

Send us the chapter. I just, I lost my mind. And I was just like, dude, you got to take this project away from me because I feel like I'm not helping. And I can't take phone calls during the week about it. And I was just very, very overwhelmed. And I think I'll never forget, like in that moment, you weren't a co-author, you were like a friend. You were like,

calm down, stop ranting and raving. Just take a breath. We're going to get, we're going to get this done. And I will take the driver's seat. And you just, when you're ready to come back to the project, you'll come back. And I, I, I really, I haven't gotten a chance to tell you how much I appreciated you doing that. Um,

but I, I definitely did. And, uh, I'm really glad you did that because somebody else, myself, for example, I would have been like,

all right, you get out of here. I'll do this myself. Um, but you, you don't have that personality and thank God you don't. So I wanted to awkwardly on a, on a podcast to tell you, thank you. Well, I remember that call vividly and it was, it was, it was a stressful time.

And despite the nice thing that you just said about me, the fact that I can be the source of calm in a project should let you know how messed up this whole enterprise was, because I'm not always this way. But honestly, like, I think we had a vision for something that could make a difference. We each have families, jobs, priorities. So there was a bit of a kind of a back and forth a little bit, but, you know, we got into a rhythm. And once we began to invite contributors and mostly everybody said yes. And, you know, some people just because of timing, a couple of people for compliance reasons couldn't, but for the most part, you know, everyone we asked said yes. And over the course of a couple months, the essays came in

and what was nice for them, nice for us as editors and nice for the readers is that every chapter is like four pages. So like, it's not heavy lifting, like it a relatively short book, and you can pick and choose whatever chapters you want. That's what books should be. I mean, not every book, but for the most part, it shouldn't take you 50 pages to tell somebody how you invest your money. If it does, your portfolio is probably bananas, right? Yeah. So I think a book of this nature, the chapter should be short.

You should be able to breeze through them because we're not talking about how do you build a rocket ship to get to Mars? That's not what the book is. No, you know, you think about like the endless amount of ink that's spent on like the future of value investing or, you know, those big topics. And look, the good thing here is no one's telling you how to invest. They're telling you how they allocate their capital.

Yeah. Not only their money, but their time and their network. And yeah, I mean, you said something earlier that, that reminded me, like, you know, I've given the book to two or three friends who have begun to flip through it. And they're all doing the same thing, which is that they're picking the chapters that, like, at first blush seem most interesting to them. I don't even know if they're reading your introduction. But they might just, like, say, oh, I've heard of that. I'll call them and read it to them over the phone. Tell me who's not reading it to them. Exactly.

Well, that's the audio book part. You could just sort of like, Oh yeah. And we're, and, and we're on a, we're going to be on audible, right. Or how do people get the audio version? Amazon there, you know, there's one bookstore left. I'm sure you've heard of it. All right. We're going to link to all that stuff by the way. And, uh, in, in the notes, so you'll know how to get it. All right. We're going to wrap with that. Uh, Brian, I wanted to ask you, uh, where can people find out more about what you're doing with Shaping Wealth and your latest endeavors? Where do you want them to go? Yeah. So website shapingwealth.com. Also, you know, Twitter at Brian Portnoy. Unlike you, I'm still active and active in the community. I'm still active and active in the community.

Yeah. Yeah. We miss you. We miss you. But understood. All right. So go to add Brian Portnoy to follow Brian. Go to shapingwealth.com to learn more about his new business. And you founded this business during the pandemic, right?

I did right in the middle of it. Good for you. All right. We're going to have you back to talk about that. Definitely want to hear the whole shaping wealth story. And in the meantime, if you haven't pre-ordered the book, I don't really know what your story is. Let's go. Get the book.

Get it delivered the day it comes out. And give some as gifts to friends. We timed this. I don't know if you noticed. Mid-November, right? So we think it's a good gift too. All right. Thanks so much, Brian.

Thanks. I'll talk to you soon. Thanks for listening. Check us out at thecompoundnews.com for daily investing and market insights. You can watch all of our videos at youtube.com slash thecompoundrwm. Talk to you next week.