The Compound and Friends - It’s GLD, b*tch!

Episode Date: January 6, 2023

On episode 75 of The Compound and Friends, Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown are joined by JC Parets and Steve Strazza to look at tons of charts and discuss: why JC is bullish precious metals, Bitcoin's make or break moment, what Warren Buffett's buying, value vs growth, and MUCH more. Check out the latest in financial blogger fashion at The Compound shop: https://www.idontshop.com Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Josh Brown are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. Wealthcast Media, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information. Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here: https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Can I get some water? It's exciting. Got one. Compound water. Oh, snap. We bottled it in-house. Oh, shit. Is that like the Poland Springs for financial advisors?

We bought a pallet of compound water. Legit. How many bottles is a pallet? I don't know. JC, how is it having two extra human beings in your house? Duh. All right, congrats, man. Holy shit.

It's a lot of humans. You know how like that part in Animal House where they take the bar and he's like, Holy shit. Holy shit. It's a lot of humans. You know how that part in Animal House where they take the bar and he's like, Holy shit. Holy shit. It's a lot of humans. Well, you had prep. You had one. That prepped you for two more.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. I'm not worried that they're going to die. I'm worried that I'm going to die. Yes. You got somebody staying in your house? Thank the holy fucking Lord. Yeah, no. We got a nanny, right?

We got a nanny during the day, night nurse. Night nurse is huge. I don't have either. Dude, night nurse. I didn't think, you know, in hindsight, like for two, we didn't have a choice. We had to have a night nurse. But in hindsight, I would have had one for the one. I had Shari's mom, but she didn't sleep over.

But she took the babies a lot. A night nurse is a luxury for one. For two, it's a necessity. Well, for sure. You need. Well, for two, it's exactly right. It's a need for two. It's a want for one.

But if you can afford it, you f***ing do it. So how old are the babies now? Two months. Two months, okay. So are they still in your bedroom? They're in their own room with the night nurse. Wait, what are their names? Giuliano and Cristiano.

Giuliano and Cristiano. Yeah. Okay. Yo, so we're going to move the growth shit. You want to move the growth shit to the... The what shit? The growth shit and the... Oh, the growth shit.

It's chart lingo. That was a great transition from babies to growth shit. If you're having growth problems, I feel bad for you, son. I wanted to do the whole thing with growth. So, JC, this is the... We're going to do it. We're going to move it. Yeah, you guys, I'm just giving you...

I'm giving you the ball. This is the first time in the history of the show I didn't even look at the doc this week. Well, good. What's the point? There's nothing in the doc. What's the point? I love JC's response. Ignore that immediately. Uh-huh. Do's the point? There's nothing in the doc, FYI. What's the point? I love JC's response.

Ignore that immediately. Uh-huh. Do not listen to what he just said. I got a phone call this morning. Mentally delete that. And physically. I'm like, didn't you not

listen to anything I tell you? Motherf**ker. I don't know. They wanted some charts. Let me send them some charts. Jesus H. Christ. I'll tell you one thing. So John is controlling

the whole show today. No Duncan? Yeah, where's Duncan? Duncan's in North Carolina. Duncan got a real deal. Where is he? Disney. Oh, he's in Disney?

What am I talking about? No, no, no, but listen. Duncan's on the run. He's on the lam. Wait. Did he start in North Carolina and then go to Disney? Yes, but he's... So Duncan...

He's on the lam. Listen, Duncan lives in an apartment building in Brooklyn, as do a lot of people. And these two nitwits left the windows open with the air conditioning off during that typhoon a couple weeks ago. So the entire apartment building is like evacuated. There was like an inch of water in everybody's unit. Who did it? Just some idiots. No.

So he has nowhere to go. So he's going to come home to a shit show? No, no. He literally has to. He had to vacate. But what does that mean? They pulled all this stuff out of the place? Or they just said, don't come back?

They have to redo the floor for him. So he's going to be out for like a month. They need remediation. Well, they're going through it. And it's just a nightmare. Yeah. No bueno. What is he?

He's in an apartment building, like a small apartment building? Yeah. Should we do a Kickstarter on the compound? We're getting Peruvian. Yeah, we are. We're going to have Pisco Sours. What's Pisco Sours? It's the drink.

It's like Peruvian brandy, basically. I'm not drinking tonight, but just kidding. I said I wasn't going to drink this night. Why are we not drinking now? What is this compound water shit? What are we not drinking now? What is this compound water shit? What are we in a recession? What is this? This chicken.

What happened to the pink tequila? This chicken. That was good tequila. This chicken is really good. You don't want to do all the Chinese names? I'm not eating carbs. Michael wants to drop in a couple of Chinese names. Nah, fucks I do.

I'm not eating Chinese. What do you mean? Who's just said Chinese? I'm sorry. I'm not even carbs. Somebody said China. Oh, me too. I'm off the I'm sorry. I'm not even carbs. Somebody said China. Oh, me too. I'm off the carbs.

Yeah, I'm not even carbs. So just eat chicken. But those plantains are so good. I'm not eating the rice. But the plantains, that's carbs. I can't eat that. You could eat a plantain. One plantain.

Yeah, but it's not worth it. You eat 10 plantains a week, bro. You want to spend your carbs on the best carbs. Pisco sours. What's the best? So what's the best carbs? Yeah, with bread, pasta, and beer. What about rice?

No. You know how I feel about rice. Well, he's Italian. So I'm trying. Risotto? I'm eating rice. That means less pasta. Risotto?

I'm not into the risotto. Risotto is bullshit. I was trying not to drink this one. If I never eat risotto again. Risotto is bullshit. Risotto is not. It's just gross. Don't put peas in my food.

It's like soupy rice. It's soup creamy rice. It's better than normal rice though. You think we have too many charts? No, but Spanish rice is way better than risotto. Hell yeah, bro. Like the, uh, like it's like saffron rice or whatever. Isn't Spanish rice just like food coloring?

It's just yellow? Yeah, they put orange food coloring in the rice. Is it really? No, saffron. What's saffron? It's an ingredient that turns the rice. It's the most expensive commodity in the world. Saffron?

Saffron and then vanilla is number two. Speaking of ingredients, I have a spoiler. On a per ounce basis, on a per weight. Saffron? Saffron and then vanilla is number two. Speaking of ingredients, I have a spoiler. On a per ounce basis, on a per weight. Truffles? Nope. Saffron is more expensive than truffles?

Saffron, vanilla, and... Platinum. No. Saffron, vanilla... Palladium. Rare earths. No.

It's saffron, vanilla, and there's a third one that's right there. Rare earths. No. Rare earths. What year is this? Remember that?

That was like 2010. Mollie Corp. Remember Mollie Corp? Did that get delisted? I think it came back. No, I'm still trading it. That was one of the first things I ever traded. You were trading Rare Earths medals?

Of course. Who wasn't? It was only one. Mollie Corp. What else was there? Was that it? Whatever. That was the one.

If you were around in 2010, you were only one. Molly Corp. What else was there? Was that it? Whatever. That was the one. If you were around in 2010, you were trading Molly Corp. So my favorite for the week is an ingredient. Well, don't do it yet. It's a spoiler. Don't spoil it. Do you know what I'm talking about? Let me know. An ingredient?

Like ingredients are a key part of the movie. What? Oh. Oh, did you watch the menu? Yes, I did. I saw it in the theater. Did you see it in the theater? No. So I wanted to. Yes, I did. I saw it in the theater. Yes, I did. Did you see it in the theater?

No. So I wanted to. I begged Robin to see it with me in the theater. It was so dark. Last night she comes in. She goes, hey, I would like this movie. I said, I f***ing begged you to come to this. A, you wouldn't like this movie.

And B, I begged you to watch it in the theater with me. It was so dark. Loved it. Yeah, I loved it so much. Ray Fons is a genius. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Without him, a movie stinks. Did you see it?

JC, you would like this movie. Hold on. I'm focused on something else right now. Okay. Fair enough. How good is it? Is it Rare Earths? Do you think it is?

Started Top Gun last night. Fell asleep. Oh, so good. Keep hearing that. Oh, before the show, because we're not doing many crypto today. Can you bring me up to speed, though, about Winklevoss versus VCG? Yeah, yeah. Is this for traffic? No, though, about Winklevoss versus DCG? Yeah, yeah. Is this for traffic?

No, no, no. It's serious? I don't want to get into this right here. Okay. But it's serious? I have super secret. No, I don't have anything. No, but they really don't like each other.

It's not like, let's get- Well, the Winkle Gemini, like every other product that was delivering yield to their clients, was lending money to Genesis, DCJ. And the money disappeared. No, Genesis was lending money to – Gemini was lending money to Genesis? Gemini pays their customers. Yes, for the earned products. Genesis pays Gemini.

Got it. Genesis gets paid by counterparties and then the counterparties didn't pay them back. And the counterparty in this case was... Whoever. No, I'm saying Genesis... So, customers lend money to Gemini. Gemini lends to Genesis. Genesis lends to counterparties.

And every... Not every counterparty. They all blew up. So the money's gone. But they're going to sue each other now? Gemini is suing... I don't know if Gemini is suing. I don't want to talk on the turn, but...

Okay. Hold on. Are we on the internet? Dude, look at Apple. Is this not happening? Do you see my changes? Go to the top. Look at this.

It's not working. It's no chill. It looks great. Are we on different decks? I don't see you in this deck, but we're on the same deck. Amazon officially dipped into more than 50% today. I changed the beginning. More than 50%.

It was 50. It's like 49. Are you connected to the internet? It was already 50. Yeah, you might not today. I changed the beginning. More than 50%. It was 50. It was like 49. 99. It was already 50. You might not be. I'm not. That's probably the reason. Oh, that's the reason.

Stop me if you've heard this before. The only side of this positive today is energy. Great. What else is new? How long do we got? Nine hours. Well, you were 15 minutes late, so I'm taking 10 charts off.

I'm deducting 10 charts. That's all right. No. There's no... There's nothing. We're open-ended, bro. This is the first show of the year. We got to do it right.

And it's going to be the most dope show of the year. Well, it's early, but I think so. Early favorite. Early favorite. I think so. What's happening? How does this doohickey work? Is this working?

A doohickey? That's a Ritholtzism. Barry says that. I'm going to drop in some Chinese internet stuff at the end just for fun if we get there. Okay. Perfect. Well, Bannock's going to be like, he's going to be like, oh, give it to me. No, I want to talk about Netflix.

Oh, I bought Tencent a couple weeks ago. Did you? Yeah. Tencent Music was the move, though. Look at TME. Although I feel like one of them looks the best that I didn't buy.

I think it's JD or Pinduoduo. That's the one, PDD. That was the first to break out of all of them. You bought that one on Fundamentals, though. I'm up 46% on Tencent. I also just love saying Pinduoduo.

Almost every time I buy stocks, they go down, so it's nice that I actually Most people don't know how to pronounce it properly I don't know if I'm pronouncing it properly. Yeah, you're good Dude JC. Come on. Get your shit together. We're ready. I'm updated. No, we're missing. I'm still missing this chart 48. It's not there 48

You're gonna want that're going to want 48. That's a big one. Is it J-O-H-N? Yep. For some reason, my website of choice to check if the internet's working is ESPN.com. It just works. I never go to ESPN.com for any other reason. Don't just basically use your slide deck.

You're going to use a slide deck except on my deck there's a chart that's missing. And you know how I get when there's a missing chart For real my internet's not working. What should I be on? I turn into like Teen Wolf. Oh, is it RWM media or RWM? I'm dead. RedHull 12th. RedHull 12th? Okay. I'm gonna connect it to media for some reason. You need a charger? Your laptop's dead? I don't want my char- I don't want my laptop. I can draw these charts for you. Okay. Well, John's gonna put them on screen You know JC one thing that you are lacking, I'd say, is confidence. I re-listened to your guys' last show from four months ago when you opened up and tried to give them a nice compliment.

Who? JC? Yeah, JC. Why do you think our audience likes you so much? Because of facts? Because everything I say is a f***. Because I don't give opinions. I don't give opinions.

I just say the same facts. Oh, JC, I was giving you credit last year, earlier in the year, when you were talking about the tenure going to 4%, and I like probably, I don't know if I... Dan say the same thing. Oh, Jesse, I was giving you credit last year, earlier in the year, when you were talking about the 10-year going to 4%, and I like probably, I don't know if I- Dan Nathan almost shit himself, I think. I don't know if I audibly laughed, but I definitely laughed in my head. Remember? That was a great call.

4%? Man, you crazy. I'm like, am I though? Dan Nathan was like, well, listen, theoretically, you could go, you know. Dan's like, oh, we're going to dinner yet or what? Yeah, yeah. And I'm back in line. Dan's like, I don't know if you really want to make that bet.

4% on 10-year. I don't know. I feel like that's very aggressive. That's very good Dan Nathan right there. Yeah, yeah. You've been working on that. Thanks, Jay-Z. Yeah, it's PDD.

Why did I not buy that one? PDD is the strongest one by a mile. Like, by a mile. That's not even close. Got in this summer. You wouldn't have known in advance. What do you mean? No, it was the strongest one at the time. When Dan Nathan's here, we. Got in this summer. You wouldn't have known in advance. What do you mean? No, it was the strongest one at the time. When Dan Nathan's here, we're drinking

pink tequila. Red Holtz water. Dan was going, you gotta try this new tequila. Comos. Comos. Comos. It's good. But you really like tequila, though. And that's a good tequila. I brush my teeth with tequila. Yeah, right. You like tequila.

That's my thing. The way you like wine. That's my thing. It's not my, unfortunately it's not my only thing, but that's my thing. I went to an Argentinian steakhouse. We did like a tequila thing. You try all the different fancy tequilas. You fixed chart 48? 48. I can't wait to see

this chart. I better be going. He's like, share this anecdote when chart 48 is up. It's actually very Ritholtz-y. Wait, wait, wait. John, get his headphones on too. Is it a copper 10-year ratio?

Did he put it in? It's in. I promise it's in. No, literally. Can you check and see if chart 48 is there? Atta boy.

Is chart 96 ready? 46A, please. Put my mic on! All right. Now you're in business. All right, everybody. Hold on.

Are we good? It's chart 48. If it's not in there, I'm going to freak the f*** out. You're already freaking out. I hope this chart 48 doesn't disappoint. Is it even 48? Am I doing right? No, not anymore.

They've been adding stuff. Chart 48 is SPY. It is now 50. It is chart SPY. It is now 50. It is chart number 50. It's now 50. Nicole, what do we got? What show is this? Oh, shit.

Welcome to The Compound and Friends. All opinions expressed by me, Michael Batnick, and our castmates are solely our own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions. Clients of Ritholtz Wealth Management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. The compounded friends. Very confident in my assertions. Thank you, Ben. Yo, big show today to start off the year. JC Peretz is back. And with JC,

Steve Straza, new to the show. I didn't know you had a first name. All I ever, Steve Straza, new to the show. I didn't know you had a first name. All I ever hear is Straza, Straza, Straza. Does he call you Straza to your face? Does he ever call you Steve? No, I'm Straza. What? Sorry?

I'm Straza. You're just Straza? That's it. Okay. That's what, because I was like, oh, that's his first name. We're so happy to have you here. Are you ready for this? I'm so psyched to be here.

Okay. You have chart 48? Is chart 48 ready? It's chart 50 now. All right. Chart 50 is going to be flames. All right. Let's do introductions.

JC, in case you have not for hedge funds, RIAs, family offices, and individual investors. JC, welcome back to the show. Happy to be here. Always, always. So happy to see you. Couldn't do the first show of the year with anyone else. Steve Straza is the director of research at All-Star Charts. Prior to All-Star Charts, Steve was a big four CPA auditing

Wall Street's largest broker dealers and a former personal accountant for Steve Cohen at SAC Capital and Point72. Point72 or Point72? 72. 72. What does Point72 mean? So the office is at 72 Cummings Point Road in Stanford.

Oh, I get it. There's nothing more than that. Okay. I thought maybe there was like the secret to trading. All right. Not that exciting. What was it like working for Steve Cohen? Awesome.

We've had other people here before that have worked for him. Wait. Time out. Time out, Steve. The microphone. You hear yourself better. We got to get this guy mic'd up. There we go.

There we go. I've done this before. Okay. John, one demerit. Alright, we've had other people who have worked for Steve here on the show before, and even people that worked sitting next to him for years are still mystified by him.

I can't talk to what a master trader he is. I was just the accountant. I wasn't upstairs with them, but one of the most generous men I've ever met, nicest boss, kindest guy. I was there during a rough time. We were going through the DOJ, the whole SEC settlement. That was a large part of my job.

And he couldn't have handled it more just eloquently. People were fleeing for the exits. Everybody was trying to get everybody to quit the company. And he did a great job of just kind of showing leadership from the top, taking care trying to get everybody to quit the company. And he did a great job of just kind of showing leadership from the top, taking care of everybody. Yeah, it was great. I don't think most people could go through that mentally. It was crazy. It was a crazy time. And the way he handled it, I'll never forget. I guess having billions of dollars makes it easier to weather that sort of thing. But even still. Yeah. Okay, got it. How did you pivot from doing that to technical analysis?

You know, I found a passion for the markets from working on Wall Street early on, then working in the asset management industry for Steve and other hedge funds, you know, in Connecticut. So I knew I wanted to— He's so Connecticut, by the way. You're born and raised? Safford, Greenwich. Yeah, okay. So I knew I wanted to be in the front office, right?

Okay. So that's when I started getting into the CMT, met all these guys, went to a couple of symposiums, and just kind of moved from there. How Connecticut would you say you are on the scale of like one to ten? What would you say? Are you a nine? Eleven. Come on. I see no lobsters on your belt.

Yeah, but he saw Vineyard Vines. We walked by one. He got very excited. He wouldn't let me go in. He got so excited, dude. He's wearing khakis, eating grinders. Okay. It's a grinder.

Exactly. It's a sub. It's what they call a sub. It's a sandwich. It's like a hero, but in Connecticut. It's odd. It's a better sandwich. All right, dude.

We're so happy to have you. And JC sings your praises at every possible turn. And we're just excited to have you on the show for the first time. So thank you for coming. All right, so there's only one place to start when All-Star Charts is in the house, and that is with charts. And I'm going to let you take it away from here. What do you think?

Are you ready for this? Are you ready for this? Dude. This is just another day. I've been watching you do this for 15 years. I'm very ready. I'm very ready. Let's go. What do we got? Should we start with 48? No, it's actually

50 now. So, Stratus, I thought it was appropriate to start with this chart. Before we even do the chart, you're bullish. Bullish what? Bullish stocks. I think that it's important to spend more time looking for stocks to buy than looking for stocks to sell, particularly the right stocks. Do we have the right order?

What's the next chart, John? Okay, good. Go back. And go to the next one after that. Just go and make sure we have the right order. Okay, we're good. You know we're actually doing the show now. All right, guys.

Okay, we're good. We're good. We're good. It's all right. Come on. We're good. Okay. Okay, so remember how we It's all right. It's just, you know, come on. We're good. Okay. Okay. So remember how we keep talking about it's like a joke.

I thought it was February. I thought it was February. The stock market peaked in Q1, you know, of 2021. You can argue that even in May. The majority of stocks peaked. Yeah. The new 52 week high list peaked. The advanced decline lines, all the growth stocks, anything Kathy would, all peaked.

And then throughout the year of 2021, even though the S&P technically went out of its highs, a lot of the indexes were still making new highs, the majority of stocks were already rolling over, had already been falling for most of the year, right? Been well-documented. We've talked about it a thousand times. Again, not an opinion, just math, right? So go to the next chart, John. Not this one, the next one, right? So there you go. So now this is the exact opposite, right? So everybody's like, Oh, JC, when's the stock market going to bottom? I'm like, well, most stocks are not making new lows, right? Before the, before stocks can start to go up, they have to stop going down first, just like before. So the people listening and not looking at this, tell, tell us. So you're showing that in April and June we had like a double bottom in in the market sort

of and that's when most stocks in the market stopped going down yep May and June a lot of new lows those two months a lot of new lows and then since then it's just been more and more stocks going up fewer and fewer stocks going down to the point where almost no stocks are going down. Like you've got some growth stocks that are still making new lows, but like, that's it. Well, let me just add some commentary to this. So in April and June or whatever, in 2021, you had roughly 30% of the Russell 2000 making, Russell 2000 making new 52 week lows. Even though the index made new lows in October, at that point there was only call it 15%. And right now, basically no stocks are making new lows. The reason why the index feels heavy right now is because the biggest stocks are rolling over, the apples of the world.

That's exactly right. So do you want to go to the one up top and then I'll let Steve chime in. But the one right before this, John, the one with the returns, there you go. So here are the returns. In this case, not since the June lows, but it basically looks the same. Here we're looking at just the fourth quarter. People are like, oh, JC, the stock market. What's bad?

The fourth quarter was not bad. Not just not bad. The fourth quarter was excellent. Except for Apple, Amazon, Nvidia. Okay. Who gives a shit, right? Well, not who gives a shit. Almost everyone.

People literally do give a shit. But whose problem is that? I guess mine for the purposes of the show. Okay. The people that own those stocks. But that's not the whole stock market. Agreed. Agreed.

Agreed. There are a lot of stocks that looked pretty good throughout the course of the fourth quarter. But nobody felt good about the overall market because the biggest market-weighting stocks looked the shittiest. The same way that mega caps really carried the indexes. In 21. In 21. We talk about how the market of stocks peaked in February, March, May, whatever. Now those same mega caps are dragging on the indexes. So the market of stocks might have bottomed this summer. When does the NASDAQ 100, for example, finally bottom? It just made a new closing low. What, last week? It's kind of incredible that all of the rest of the market is holding it up.

You would just think, like, if Apple and Microsoft and Amazon are getting killed. That's all you need. Can I ask you a question? You would just think every other stock is terrible. Can I ask you a question about that? So doesn't that just negate the whole premise of leadership? These are the biggest stocks look the worst, and everything else is okay. Like, not everything, but there are entire sectors and

industry groups that are just absolutely fine, then really leadership is not important at all because there's something better than leadership. There's a rotation. So like when you hear about, oh, this is a market leader, what does that even mean? Well, it depends on how you define a market leader, right? So this is a great question. Like as a market leader, the biggest companies, the Russell 2000 components by definition are not market leaders, right? So this is a great question. Like, is a market leader the biggest companies? Well, the Russell 2000 components, by definition, are not market leaders, even if they're going down less or even green. They're still not market leaders.

They're small caps. Yeah. So what is a market leader then? In my opinion, it's leadership groups. So like sectors. Energy, industrials, materials, financial. Mobile is a market leading stock right now. If you're interested in making money in the market,

you look at leadership as the ones that are leading the returns, not leading the headlines. Market capsize. Right. Popularity. Who cares? We're talking relative strength to the rest of the market. I do.

I think that way. No, no, no. But if I said to you in the fourth quarter of last year, Apple is a market-leading stock, and you didn't know about technical analysis. You just knew about companies or you watch TV or whatever. You'd be like, yeah, Apple's a leading stock. Apple looks like shit, goes down every day, and then there's like 1,000 stocks that are going up. So is Apple a leader?

No, it's a laggard. It's a bell. I know on price action, it's a laggard. It's a bellwether. It's a bellwether. Thank you for introducing that to going up. So is Apple a leader? No, it's a laggard. It's a bell. I know on price action, it's a laggard. It's a bellwether. It's a bellwether. Thank you for introducing that to the conversation. A bellwether doesn't have to be one of the better performing stocks. No, it's just a critically important component

to the overall market. JP Morgan, Freeport-backed Iran. Or something like Freeport, not due to its weighting, but its importance in the economy. So there's like a thousand debates. Can this market hold off if the leaders get – yes, if there's new leaders is the answer. It's also what is the market? Always new leaders.

Are we talking about the market as the value line index? Because then if it's a more equally weighted index, it will hold up just fine in an environment where internals are as strong as they are. If we're talking about the NASDAQ 100, it's not going to hold up at all with Amazon and Apple. Well, I would imagine. I'm sure you've got this chart. Maybe it's chart 48. The equal weight versus the cap is-

Come on, John. Show them the chart. And it speaks to that. It's that really, it's that same exact theme. Boom. There we go. Equal weight versus market cap. It's ripping.

Is the S&P one after this or no? I don't know. So wait, so this is a ratio chart. This is the NASDAQ 100. Equally weighted. Equally weighted. So we're making Apple the same size as Adobe. Yeah.

Whatever. There's like energy stocks in the NASDAQ now. Pepsi. No. Yes, there is. No. It's Pepsi. So it's 0% energy.

But the equally weighted S&P 500 relative to the cap weighted s&p 500 looks exactly like this they're the same line so equal weight relative to dude by the way equally it's been getting pummeled for years relative to market cap obviously right because because only five stocks are driving the market jc right he's using air quotes by the way i really think that there are three energy stocks in the nasdaq 100 now i think they just got out you might be right i'm pretty sure the waiting is essentially zero. Like this happened on December 31st. Oh, maybe. Oh, we just spoke about this.

Yes. That's the top. The time to buy was when they booted them from the Dow. So this is notable because it's been so long since you've been able to say. No, this is a stock picker's market, like legitimately. Yes.

It's more of a sector's picker's market than a stock picker's market. But yes, right? As much as that is always true now more than ever. But when that line is going down, it's really hard to outperform. When it's all Apple and Google, it's really hard. That's a good point. But also nobody owns the equal weight stock market. That's the bigger point.

America owns the market cap weighted. That's why it's the market cap weighted. America owns SPY. It's $350 billion in that fund. It's not that it's a stock picker's market. It's a market where you don't want to be in the indexes. You don't want to be cap weighted. You don't want to be in cap weighted indexes.

They're all dominated by growth. Yeah, it's not so much like buying the RSP ETF instead of the SPY. It's about using that as information to then make decisions and adjust your approach to the market. It's just been so long since that's been a winning strategy for normal investors. Literally years. Yeah. I mean, look at this. This goes back to 16, but I bet—

And you could probably pull back to 14 or 13. Yeah, but it gets back to Y, and I think the next chart is going to show that. Is it the next to the growth value chart? No, next is S&P. So the S&P 500 short term is messy, right? So this is a downtrend. Look at this channel. It's perfect.

As clear as a downtrend as it gets, that's the anchored VWAP off the highs. And this is from January 2022, continuing right into January 23. As clean of a downtrend as it gets. What's anchored VWAP? It's anchored to the beginning of the year as opposed to the day. Okay, got it, got right into January 23. As clean of a downtrend as it gets. What's anchored VWAP? It's anchored to the beginning of the year as opposed to the day, for example. Every VWAP is anchored to something.

You literally click and drop it wherever you want. So JC, if somebody says, is this a bear market or not? For me, this is the chart that they would point to and say, show me how it's not a bear market. But you're talking about a bull market. So why am I getting confused? Because that's the greatest trick that the market ever pulled, is convincing investors that we're in a bull market when most stocks have been going up since June. So if you're just looking at the S&P 500 price, the index itself, it's clearly a bear market.

I mean, a bear market. But if you're looking at the market of stocks, it's not. I mean, but if you're looking at the market of stocks, it's not. Listen, a bear market to me, in my experience, is an environment where most stocks are going down. You're getting more and more stocks making new lows. That's a bear market. In a bull market, you have fewer and fewer stocks making new lows, more and more stocks making new highs, sector rotation to the upside. That's a bull market.

Would you say there was an expanding new high list now? I wouldn't. No. No, that's what we're waiting for is the expansion of new highs. It's the deterioration of new lows. So what is it? Just less new lows. It's not that binary, right? It's not that it's always a bull market or a bear market.

There's always a transitionary period in between. It's a sideways market right now, but it's going to be a bull market next is the bet that we're making. Well, RSP is going sideways. But it could also roll and have that market of stocks start to fall apart too. If you look at the Dow. That's the bet I would make. The Dow made a higher high, right? So you could say it's on its way to being in a new uptrend, right?

NASDAQ is still grinding on its lows of the cycle. Yeah. If you look at the median stock and how high it is from its all-time high, that's probably in a bear market. I'm guessing the median stock is 100% or 20%. Again, a bear market is a function of the environment. It's not so much like, oh, Apple's in a bear market or tech is in a bear market. A market is a market environment. It's the current environment.

Would you say that this does not look and feel like what a bear market looks and feels like? I think it looks and feels like early stages of a bull market where people are fighting the fact that most stocks are going up. And it's getting easier and easier to make money from the long side and harder and harder to make money from the short side. The other thing is that the headline – if you're looking at prices, then the news headlines are confirming bear market. Great. News headlines do not reflect less new 52-week lows. The headlines are layoffs, all layoffs all the time. So that's the confirmation bias that you're getting in the media to go along with the fact that your Apple stock is down 30 percent.

Your Amazon stock is down 50. But so for example – These are the stocks people own. In the media, we keep hearing that housing is rolling over, and it probably is, but housing stocks. Home construction stocks keep making new highs. They look pretty good. They look great, Lenore.

You're killing it. It's kind of like we're in a prolonged bottoming phase right now. Before we enter a new sustainable market phase. That's bad. Pulte's almost at the same level. There's not. I mean, this is like, Pulte's almost by the way, by the way, there's not a lot

of full year bear markets in history. Half the sectors are above the 200 day moving average. Half the US sectors

are above the 200 day. Is that true? Yeah. Like what? Staples, utilities, energy? Nope.

Utilities, I think, are right there. Healthcare, energy, financials, materials, industrials,

all above their 200 day moving average. Unfortunately, the sectors with the popular stocks, consumer discretion, tech, are not. Unfortunately for who? You're right. Who do you think owns the stock market? So here you go.

So these are all the moving averages. So it's a great table. So you can see healthcare, staples, industrials, financials, energy. This is great, by the way. Defensive and cyclical. This is great. Time out. 200-day moving average.

45% of the 11 S&P sectors are above. That's what you're saying? Yep. Okay. And 50-day, 36% are above. So it's sloppy, though. It's sloppy. Regardless. You have sloppy. Regardless.

You have winners and losers. You have historic dispersion among sector returns. Yes. And when Bannock is like, oh, it's a stock picker's market. Yes, it's a stock picker's market. It's a sector picker's market. You have 100% dispersion. Actually, active managers versus the index had one of their best years ever last year.

For good reason. All you had to do was best years ever last year. For good reason. All you had to do was not be overweight, large cap tax, and you beat the market. For the last 10 years, if you were underweight, you might as well have been short. You just missed everything. Yep. Also, I think a lot of active managers are value-focused managers. Are they? Oh, for sure.

Really? Yeah, because they all went to the same five grad schools. They all read the same 10 books. Got it. So most active managers have some sort of a bent toward value, which is what's being rewarded in the current environment. That makes total sense. Yeah, I got that. They don't teach – they don't teach Cathie Wood's style investing in Edward.

You know what I mean? That's why she caught on the way she did. Right. It was a brand new thing. But they teach Ben Graham. They don't teach exponential growth companies. They don't teach innovation. It's just not in the curriculum.

They teach value trends. Exactly. Let's keep it moving. So here's the dispersion. Whoa, whoa, whoa. Whoa, whoa, whoa. John's getting back. John's getting back.

Go back to the dispersion, John, because this is important. John had a four loco before the show. We jumped forward to get to the loco show. Keep going back, John. Keep going back. This is important. Oh, SPLV looks good the show. We jumped forward to get to the loco show. Keep going back, John. Keep going back. This is important. Oh, SPLV looks good. I haven't looked at that in a while.

I got you. Oh, SPLV doesn't look good. Well, rather than SPY, it does. There you go. So this is the sector dispersion. So basically 100% difference between the winner and the loser. Oh, shit. Wait, can you explain?

So this is energy versus communications. This is the best versus worst yearly S&P 500. So this is basically, let's just say for argument's sake, energy was up 60 and communications was down 40. Is that what? 60-something and 30-something. It was something like that, actually, yeah. Wow. And we haven't seen that.

20 years. And guess what happened 20 years ago? The growth versus value ratio peaked then, too. If you go to the next one, Sean. Boom. So 99, 2000 and 99, it was actually tech as the best. ago the growth versus value ratio peaked then too if you go to the next one john boom so 99 2000 and 99 it was actually tech as the best right and then in 2000 it flipped wait what were we just looking at oh this is just zoomed out my bad okay so basically it's like the way i'm looking at 1999 there was no reason to even show up to work if you didn't own tech stocks right because

literally nothing else was going up but then j Josh, what happened after that? We had a beautiful bull market in the 2000s into 2007. It was an amazing bull market. I think Eminem dropped a debut record that year. A lot of shit happened after that. How were tech stocks doing? After that? During that period in the 2000s. It took 11 years for tech stocks to come back to where they were. And we were in a bull market and tech stocks were underperforming the whole time. Utilities were outperforming the 2000s. It took 11 years for tech stocks to come back to where they were. And we were in a bull market and tech stocks were underperforming the whole time. That's right. Utilities were outperforming the whole time. Energy, financials, Merrill Lynch, Bear Stearns, Lehman.

In 99, the magazine covers were Buffett lost his touch. And by like 2001, 2002, it was like, oh shit, wait, actually he's smart. He nailed it again. Maybe he knows what he's doing a little bit. And this is no different. We just had that. But this is no different. This is exactly what this year is about.

David Einhorn is up 36% this year. That's crazy. Okay. And we're only five days into the year. Hold on, wait, what? Berkshire Hathaway is one of the best. Last year. Last year.

Berkshire Hathaway is one of the best performing stocks in the S&P last year. Yeah. Like we're right back. It's incredible how that repeats. It's like we never left. Well, when interest rates are going up, those are the types of stocks that do well, value stocks. It's perfectly normal.

When you see this kind of sector dispersion, though, it's almost like you can think of it as a momentum thrust in the growth value or sector ratios. So if we chart growth versus value, when we're looking at something like energy versus tech and the dispersion, that's going to show a huge thrust in that ratio. So I think it's interesting that the last time we saw such great dispersion between the leaders and laggers sector-wise was when the growth versus value ratio

was at an inflection point, turned in favor of value. That's no doubt happening again right now. I don't know if you guys have done this work historically it's like very unlikely for i think i've seen this somewhere in some form not like this but like whatever was the the dispersion whatever was the top performing sector to such an extreme degree like they don't get their comeback a year later or two years later well we're two in a row now for energy no he's talking about on the other way you're talking about the laggards oh the losers i don't do it in a row for communications i don't get their comeback a year later or two years later. Well, we're two in a row now for energy. No, he's talking about on the other way. You're talking about the laggards. Oh, the losers.

Two in a row for communications. I don't think the dispersion between energy and the rest of the market in 21 was anything special. In 22, it was obvious. But like, I think a lot of things worked in 21. This can't persist indefinitely. I mean, obviously. You'll have your – Well, we got some charts to show you.

Let's keep it rolling. Let's keep it rolling. Keep going. Okay. So this is important because here we're looking at energy relative to technology. And we looked at this on this show before. As soon as we got back above the March 2000 lows, energy has absolutely exploded. Like that matters. Are we going to do that?

Are we going to go there? No, we're not doing that. Let's just keep moving. No, we don't have enough time for that. Let's do that over dinner. So remember what it did. Now look at the next one. Financials versus technology.

They're doing the same thing. This is about to break out. You think? Relative to tech, financials could break out. Looks good. I like it. I like that. Guess what?

We could be here next year and this should be at 50. And if it is, where's the 10-year? Higher. Six. Let's not go there. If financials on a relative basis, relative to tech, are at 50, you're looking at 10s at six? I don't want to live in a world where the 10s are at 6%. More about spreads.

We're overthinking it. It's not necessary to make a guess there, but six. All right. Keep moving. Nobody wants that. So here you go. It's the same trade. Yeah.

Yeah. It's just showing that the XLK-XLF ratio is just a microcosm of growth. Yeah. Again, and what are the best two sectors historically? What interest rates are going up? Energy and financials. Yeah. There's that ETF, EQRR.

Yeah. What's that? What's that? 80% weighted towards energy financials, like another 10%. EQRR. Stocks for rising rates. Equities for rising rates. Equities for rising rates. Oh, okay.

Yeah. We talk about this all the time, that a lot of this growth versus value stuff really just boils down to industries. Like, you'll have companies that are traditional value stocks. You'll have industries or sectors that are traditionally in the growth bucket. And that's what a lot of this stuff comes down to. For sure. That's not wrong. I would just also add that you could see value within tech, for example. Tech is obviously dominated by growth bucket. And that's what a lot of this stuff comes down to. For sure. That's not wrong. I would just also add that you could see value within tech, for example.

Tech is obviously dominated by growth stocks. Legacy tech. Absolutely. Like Intel looks better than a lot of other semi-stocks right now. It's a value. Semis too, though. Semis too is a very important, right? Guess what?

IBM. Yeah, they're cyclical stocks. IBM. Wait, Facebook is now a value stock, guys. So Facebook's ripping, but IBM looks really good. How about Coinbase as a value, but IBM looks really good. How about Coinbase is a value stack? IBM does look good. IBM looks good.

You know what Coinbase's earnings multiple is? I don't. Three times earnings. JC, do you know? I think it's crazy. I don't know why anybody would dilute something as pure as price. If I'm a value manager, I'm all over Coinbase. What are your thoughts on Coinbase? I think it's going to zero. You do, right? I hope it goes to zero. I don't know. No, I don't over Coinbase. What are your thoughts on Coinbase?

I think it's going to zero. You do, right? I hope it goes to zero. I don't know. No, I don't have any thoughts. So you don't think even at three times it makes sense? I think it's a piece of shit. But the brand, just the brand and the fact that they have all the customers.

None of these guys have brands. They're all cooked, every one of them. This generation of crypto companies, like they all need to go. If crypto is going to survive, you need people that are trusted. There's no trust in any of these. These brands are meaningless. I think Coinbase is different. I think Coinbase is trusted.

They're trying to be trusted. They're doing everything the right way. I think they're trying. And a lot of this is not their fault. It's just this moment in time where they're all tweeting shit at each other. It's just all bad. Do you guys own any Bitcoin?

Yo, let me ask. Do you own it through Coinbase? I own too much. Do you have a Coinbase account? I do. If you still own that guys own any Bitcoin? Do you own it through Coinbase? Do you have a Coinbase account? If you still own that 10 years from now, will you still own a Coinbase account? What's the question? Will you still own it through your Coinbase account? I have a Coinbase account. They'll probably close it after they hear this.

Imagine like after the 1987 crash on Wall Street. Imagine like Chuck Schwab on Twitter screaming at Abigail Johnson and like threatening lawsuits. Like these are children. You're talking about Armstrong? They're not grownups yet. The companies, I mean.

These are child companies. They're all sub five years old. What the f*** are we talking about brand? Coinbase is not. You know what a brand – honestly. You know what a brand is? Wells Fargo. Every other year they commit something. Terrible choice.

No, but I'm making the point that they persist. It's literally a horse and buggy. Like, it literally is their logo. Like, they haven't moved on in 150 years. Honestly, they have been investigated and fined more than Al Capone. But it's not going anywhere. They won't shut this thing down. That is a brand.

They shut their investors down, right? Their shareholders are paying. That thing will be Wells Fargo long after I'm dead. Look at this. IBM versus Spivey. Their shareholders are broke. What's going on there? Yeah.

Those value tax. I think with Coinbase, it's a really simple fundamental thesis. We're going to put our fundamental hats on. I dare you to f***ing buy that stock. It's $34. I already did. I got stopped out. I'm going to buy it again if it's above $46.

Sounds great. I love this guy. Bring this guy back. I think if crypto is still around 10 years from now, we're all still going to have our Coinbase accounts. And they're going to figure out how to make money off of all those eyeballs. Fidelity is offering Bitcoin and Ethereum or Ether trading to their customers. What kind of – all kidding aside. What kind of psychopath would say, you know what?

That's cool that Fidelity is doing it. I'm going to opt for these guys who are being investigated night and day. I don't think you're a psychopath. You're just a lazy millennial. You have a Coinbase account now. Why would you switch to Fidelity? Why wouldn't you? What's your argument not to? Coinbase is not FTX. That's it? Coinbase files focus

reports with FINRA. They tell you where all the customers' assets are on a monthly basis. It's a very different situation. My money's there. I think they're the best actor in the space, but that's not saying much. I'm making the point that fidelity is fidelity.

So you think everybody is going to take their money out of Coinbase, move it to Fidelity, take the time to do that? I don't think that. I think if Bitcoin actually becomes a real thing, like not just a bubble, but like an actual thing, institutions are

going to give their money to Fidelity before they're going to give it to Coinbase. That's what I think. I think there's probably another party that we're not mentioning or even are familiar with at this point that ends up being the bigger winner. Who would that be? That's the point. I don't think we know yet. Starbucks?

Berkshire Hathaway. I doubt it. Yeah, Berkshire. All right, let's keep going. What else we got? Sokshire Hathaway. I doubt it. Yeah, Berkshire. All right, let's keep going. What else we got? So this is the same thing. The reason the Dow is the big winner. We're only, what, 6%, 7% from new all-time highs in the Dow.

And the NASDAQ is down near new multi-year lows. By the way, this is because of what's in it. That does not look like a bottom. No. Growth versus value. No, at all. I mean, new lows are not characteristic of uptrends. That's a top.

That just reminds me of a market where people just don't accept it. I mean, new lows are not characteristic of uptrends. No, that's a top. That just reminds me of like a market where people like just don't accept it and they'll just fight it the whole way. Let me ask you this. What is a growth investor? Oh, I only buy growth stocks. Somebody started investing 10 years ago. They started investing two years ago. Well, some investors have that as their mandate.

Oh, I'm a growth investor. Fine. There's like five people. Can I tell you something? Everyone is a growth investor. Fine. There's like five people. Can I tell you something? Everyone is a growth investor. Value investors are growth investors. They're not buying companies because they think their company's not going to grow earnings ever again.

Everyone's a value investor. They just call it GARP. Everyone's also a value investor. But it's what you said before. It's more sector specific. It's what types of industry groups are you buying? Dude, Warren Buffett is buying companies because he thinks they will be able

to grow their profits. Plain and simple. So everyone is betting on growth. The distinction is really a Morningstar distinction that's not – like doesn't really exist in the real world. It's more like a – it's like a concept. And we started bucketing things based on that concept that maybe didn't need to be bucketed. But in real life, if you're buying a stock, you're buying it because you think the company has a brighter future ahead of it than its current situation. Also, people talk about, oh, Warren Buffett fundamentals, Warren Buffett value. Warren Buffett buys the whole company because he thinks he could do better with that cash than the company can.

So there's a whole other element of Warren Buffett mastery that gets bucketed into fundamental analysis. whole other element of Warren Buffett mastery that gets bucketed into fundamental analysis. I'm just saying, any investor pulling the trigger on a stock is buying it because they think the company is going to grow. Period. Nobody is buying a stock because they think it's going to swing. Hopefully it's because they think the price is

going to go up. No one else is green on my screen other than energy. I see nothing else but Bitcoin. Bitcoin's green today. Alright, let's get to Bitcoin. We got a little Bitcoin. This is just the inverse. But this is also a similar trade. Developed markets, ex-North America versus the S&P.

That's value versus growth again. Yeah, very similar. Exactly. And I've been waiting for 15 years now. Here we go. People have been talking about how cheap ex-US stocks are, what good value they are. And this line has just continued straight down as the U.S. has continued to just crush anything outside of the U.S.

I think now that we're getting a true regime change in growth versus value, that it's time that this finally bottoms and turns in favor of ex-U.S. stocks. It's been 10 years since this ratio was like even 5% above its average. Developed stocks versus U.S. Didn't develop stocks all outperformed U.S. stocks last year? UK is 0% technology. Yeah. And it was up last year. Well, it's pushing up against New All-Time Highs.

Yeah, it worked in their favor last year. But hasn't for a decade plus. Well, the spread, I think U.S. stocks over 10 years outperformed international markets by 50% or something. 150, I think. 150%. Well, what's in the U.S. and what's in those other countries? Very different. So this is right along those same lines.

Let's keep moving. That's a great chart. So there's just a table for all of that, you know, showing the percentages. Yeah. So what we're doing here is, you know, there are vehicles outside of the U.S. U.S. is very growth heavy. You can see it way at the bottom here on the left. Look at, you know, how little value exposure it has versus growth. So we went through, we looked at all of the international country ETFs and then

the international diversifieds on the right hand side here. And we're just trying to look at, you know, their weightings. I have a question. Who has the most value? These don't probably where you want to be. These don't always add up to 100. So what's the gap? Is that blend? And again, just like Josh was saying, this isn't a perfect exercise. It's never going to be. We're not going through every component and marking it growth or value. In the Russell indices, a stock can be in the growth and in the value.

It is. That's what they do. They split it up almost always. That's right. Which gets back to the point that a lot of this growth versus value thing is really like more of a theoretical. No, no, no. No, it's not. It's not a perfect science.

So is it energy, financials, healthcare, consumer staples, materials, or is it communications, technology, internet? Although, you know, I don't know. Discretionary. I don't know. Those are the buckets. How Standard & Poor's and Russell and all the rest of the index providers define growth versus value. I do believe it's earnings per share growth. It's not like some made-up shit.

No, we're not saying that. We're saying the concept of I'm only going to invest in value companies versus I'm only going to invest in growth companies. That's the part that to me is more conceptual. People don't really do that. I think the best way to make a determination between whether it's growth or value is it's multiple. That's a very good shortcut for sure. That's the market telling you what it's- Yeah. Because you should theoretically pay for companies that are growing. But then we see people like Bill Nygren, who's one of the great current investors,

and you'll see he runs a value fund and you'll see him buy Amazon. But then he explains to you, I'm not looking at PE ratio. I'm looking at something else that's telling me there's more value in this stock than any other stock. And he's not a slave to the three metrics that he's not looking at price book, book to market, price cash flow. He's looking at something else that's more important to him as an investor. I think it's a smart way to do it. That's what I think. I think break out of the formula. If it's a value investment, why? Where is the future value of this thing?

It's not always going to show up in a formula. Right. So, okay. Let's keep going. All right. Let's get into some trades. So, you know. Oh, I love this.

You, Finn. We were just talking about that. Yeah. I mean, listen. European financials up 30% in fourth quarter. Is that true? Chinese internet stocks up 42% on fears of an upcoming recession. Wait, wait, wait.

I know Chinese internet stocks went up. European bank stocks are up 30% since the fourth quarter? Yes, since about mid-October when emerging market currencies bottomed and the dollar started to fall. These things have absolutely ripped. HSBC is ripping. This is as Credit Suisse is going to zero. Even Credit Suisse is up.

No, no, no. Credit Suisse looks like shit. It bounced. Number one, Deutsche Bank was making new highs while Credit Suisse was still making new lows. So Deutsche Bank is like,

that Credit Suisse might go to zero, but nobody cares. Exactly. Deutsche Bank is no longer the laughingstock of the global financial industry. Deutsche looks great and HS. Exactly. I think this thing has legs. Deutsche Bank is no longer the laughingstock of the global financial industry. Deutsche looks great, and HSC looks great.

You think this thing has legs? Yeah. European financials? I think it speaks more to the risk appetite for investors because if the world is about to fall apart, do you think European banks are leading? You know what happened today? Peter Buchvar put it in his email blast.

The last of the sovereign bonds with a negative yield disappeared. Oh, interesting. Oh, wow. The end. The end of the negative yielding sovereign bonds. So this rally in European financials is not a coincidence. All of that negative yielding debt is gone now.

U.S. banks are underperforming. So European banks, Japanese banks, Indian banks. I don't know if Japan was the last sovereign, but I would guess. Dude, Yufin outperformed XLF last year. Yeah, totally. Big time. Can we pull that up, John?

All right, we'll get to that, I believe. But all right, you want to get into some crypto? You want to get into some real trades? I don't. Michael does. Hold on, but we have a trade in the equities market. I kind of don't, but let's go. Fast.

First time ever, Bitcoin's down four consecutive quarters. Next chart, John. Really? Yes. Never happened? Never happened. Look how long quarters. Next chart, John. Really? Yes. Never happened? Never happened. Look how long it's been below its 200-day moving average. This is a clean chart.

This is eye candy. Bitcoin has been below its 200-day moving average for 372 days. That's more than a year. It's approaching the record. It's approaching the record. I'm good at this. Yeah, exactly. One of the worst periods ever.

We know this. And, John, these were the headlines before Bitcoin completely fell apart. A lot of positivity amongst the journalist community. December 2017 was the last top. Bitcoin storms Wall Street. No, it doesn't. Go to the next chart and you can see what these things look like now. Holy shit.

Holy shit is right. Cryptos, the economists, cryptos downfall, business week in ruins, theo's down. The economist. Crypto's downfall. Business week. In ruins. The fall of a crypto empire. Well, that's SBF, right? Searching for… What is this? Economist.

Yeah. Good luck. All right. So it's not good, right? Despite it all, though, Bitcoin not able to violate its prior cycle. Why isn't it making new lows? I keep hearing… That's the point.

Jesse, tell me. I keep hearing how bullish it is that crypto is holding $16,000. And I keep saying, yeah, but it was $70,000. What is the significance of $16,000? But it was also $4,000. It's not $16,000. That is where risk peaked during the last cycle. It was $19,000, I thought.

Late 2017. Right, it was $19,000. So look. So look. So we'll look at the 2017. Right, it was 19,000. So look, so we'll look at the now. So yeah, Josh, you're right. It has slightly undercut it, but there's no follow through. You wouldn't really call that a break below the prior cycle. Everyone feels like it should be way lower.

Yes. It feels that way. Wait till either DGC or DCG or Tether or Binance blows up and then you'll get your 10,000. Maybe. But volatility right now is nonexistent. Nonexistent volatility right now for Bitcoin. No, I feel like it's been the same price for too long. So what do we know? We know that asset prices trend and we know that volatility mean reverts.

Humans, we act very irrationally. So us humans, right? We think that prices mean revert. Everyone's always looking for a top. Everyone's always looking for a bottom. But asset price is trend. We have the data. We know.

Volatility is the opposite. Volatility mean reverts. Volatility doesn't trend. So if volatility is not- It spikes and then subsides. Right. So when volatility is high, it's probably going to come down. When volatility is low, it's probably going to come up.

Could volatility spike to the upside in a good way with price? Yes. So go to the next- Oh, I don't think it's I don't think Bitcoin stops at $16,000 forever. It's either $30,000 or $10,000 during the next vol spike. And I don't know which one.

But you got a nice setup. So what do you do with this? Don't even. What do you do with this? Is this a straddle? You flip the book. Wait, what chart are we looking at, fellas? What chart are we looking at? Micro strategy. Flip the book, Bitcoin.

Long or short, doesn't matter. This is essentially, isn't this the de facto ETF? Just flip it. Yeah, this is a Bitcoin ETF. What is it, micro strategy? Over 90% of their net assets are in Bitcoin or something crazy. No, they're actually now he's selling. He's not selling Bitcoin.

Yeah, he was forced to sell. I think he just issued a secondary about more. He said I had to sell for tax reasons. Oh, no, he's gonna take out more debt to buy more. I'm not saying he's bearish on Bitcoin. He's not selling. But I think he had to sell some. It might have been for the debt covenants. That was a big thing last summer. Therefore, not an ETF.

I thought he was gonna default. Definitely not an ETF. Maybe, but if you're looking for a trader. It acts like an ETF. Right, right, right. Yeah, not an ETF. Definitely not an ETF. Maybe, but if you're looking for a trader. It acts like an ETF. Right, right, right. Yeah, not an ETF. Definitely not an ETF. It's a software stock. Be careful. Let's be careful. It's like literally

a software company that like sells software to car dealerships. But it's not even a software company. Is that what it is? No, but their software business is so small. Like it doesn't matter.

Stock price doesn't move on their software business. And that's kind of like that's what we look for when it comes to like finding an equity vehicle to bet on Bitcoin. We just want the purest play. Like you're right, this might be a crazy

one, but it's a very pure... I will only agree with you that it's a pure play if he still has the laser eyes, does he? I don't go on Twitter. It's only a pure play if it moves up and down with... No, if he removes the laser eyes, I cannot commit to a position... If we talk about sentiment,

these idiots were putting lasers in their eyes. Like if you didn't think that that was a top, you know what I'm saying? I don't know anyone that did that. Let's keep going. You know people who did. Whether you know them personally or not. I don't know them personally, I'm saying.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. So here's the trade. If you're above the prior cycle's highs, you can own these things. If they're not, you don't. It's that simple. It's binary to me. So you're saying like Bitcoin 20, you guys would get

bullish? Very. Yeah. Because that would be a little oops. I would too. When we draw the oops on the charts, that would be a textbook failed move, bull hook, get back above those prior cycle highs, squeeze the first Bitcoin I ever bought. The blog post was anything that can't be killed, you have to pay

attention to. And that was like shortly after mount gox and all these hacks and whatever like if this thing survives this year yeah you you like you have to take it seriously you'll be irresponsible you have to buy it but you have to like yeah you have to shut up with the bitcoin is going away if it doesn't go away right now but it doesn't but you're not bottom fishing and trying to pick a bottom. You're buying high and selling higher. You want to buy the breakout to the upside. Right. I agree.

I don't want to, right. Like I was more bullish at 50,000 than I am at 16,000. For sure. 100%. Yeah. And by the way, Bitcoin made new lows now this fall.

Ethereum did not. It made a higher low. So if you're looking for that Dow Theory divergence sort of situation. Yeah, classic Dow Theory. I agree. Got it. All agree. Got it. Alright. Keep going.

Oh, look at this one. We're looking at value. We're looking at semis, right? You want a bottom fish? I think that micro strategy. Go to micro strategies real quick. Let's just define that. Micron. No, I know. Go to the micro strategies real quick, John. One more. There you go. So if we're not above those May lows, you can't own it, right? So the trade is very well defined. Long above 133, below that, you leave it alone, let it go to zero.

Target at 210, next target at 270. You let it go to zero. Yeah. I mean, who cares? If you don't own it, who gives a shit, right? I wouldn't buy this stock if you delivered the certificates to me in a Bentley and gave me the keys. If somebody delivered certificates to me in a Bentley, I definitely would sell it right away. Yeah. First of all. There's nothing anyone on earth could tell me about MicroStrategy

that would make me buy. Right, but if you're looking for a trade and you want to do some bottom fishing because you've been buying a lot of relative strength

and leadership groups, which we have been fortunately successfully. I'm not looking for a trade. I'm looking for a hole to hide in for the next year. Why are you looking

for a hole to hide in? Hold on. It's a super high the market strategy. Why are you looking for a hole to hide in? Hold on. It's a super high beta, high risk reward type of bet. If this guy is right, right, and the loan

and all the debt covenants that everybody was worried about this summer is all fine, the Bitcoin that they own is trading at a massive discount. So there's more juice. What is the discount

of the Bitcoin on their balance sheet versus the stock price? We've done the math before. Enough, but let's say it was one-to-one. As big as Grayscale? All right, nobody cares. Let's move on.

Something around to that magnitude. All right. So this is the same thing, except without the crypto side. You're looking at Micron. If you're looking to do some bottom fishing, you want a low probability but very high risk versus reward proposition, these are it. These are the trades. You want to know if you're wrong very quickly. Hell yeah, you do.

Right? So same thing with Micron. So Micron did not take out the September low. Right. Okay. You could get real junky and buy some pot stocks that look like this right now. Social media stocks also look like this too. So find your low, whether it be September, whether it be June or May.

There's a lot of examples like that too. And you could trade against those levels. Snapchat stopped going down. September, whether it be June or May, there's a lot of examples like that, too. And you can trade against those levels. That's all it is. Snapchat stopped going down. Fun fact, social media stocks have been leaders since the market bottomed October 13. They're like the fourth top-performing industry group. We're going to advance the chart. Let's go, John.

John's working on the lighting. John's changing the light. So here we're looking at the U.S. dollar index, which is hilarious when those magazine covers came out. By the way, we're talking about foreign stocks. We didn't even mention the weakening dollar. I remember both of those. This is part of it. So this was the beginning of October.

You had the can't stop, won't stop. U.S. dollar. Come on. And then the George Washington flexing on the cover of Barron's. And that was literally the top of the dollar. Technically, it had peaked a week prior. Like, if you look at the internals. They ordered the artwork the day it peaked. Like, get me George Washington

popping out of a dollar, flexing in a tank top. Also, in momentum, we look at just short-term rate of change. It's just the simplest way to analyze momentum. You got exhaustion. So one of the biggest single up days since I think COVID. And then one of the single biggest down days, like five days later. So when you get volatility just going wild in both directions, that's

turning point stuff. Did the dollar peak on the peak inflation print? It's a good question. How do you define inflation? By the way, it's been an hour. We haven't even CPI report. CPI is a year old. No, I understand, but I'm asking is that the thing that finally put the top into the dollar? I think I'll read those reports. On a weekly basis, look, it says dollar weekly high, October 14th. JC, it's been an hour. How have we

not mentioned commercial hedgers? You want to talk commercial hedgers? We'll talk commercial hedgers. I want to talk about the October CPI. They love their lumber, these commercial hedgers we'll talk commercial hedgers I want to talk about the Axelberg CPI wait they love their lumber these commercial hedgers hold on

can we wrap can we wrap up the dollar conversation yeah yeah yeah okay so so we think it's falling into support here

well remember that the only safe haven had been the dollar yeah the only the only not bonds no right bonds got destroyed worse than stocks not Japanese yen not Bitcoin definitely not gold had been the dollar. Yeah. The only. The only. Not bonds. No.

Right? Bonds got destroyed worse than stocks. Not Japanese yen. Not Bitcoin. Definitely not gold. So obviously not Bitcoin. Definitely not gold. The only safe haven was the US dollar.

So the US dollar was strong. Remember, when did the US dollar start getting strong? In the first quarter of 2021. Right. When stocks started to fall. Right. And when did the dollar start to go down before that happened, right after COVID?

Right as we had the greatest 52-week period in the history of the stock market. So now that the dollar's coming off, stocks are doing great. Well, also, that's how these international stocks are catching a bid, too. Yeah, it's part of it. Totally, but U.S. stocks also. U.S. stocks are doing great.

Okay, next chart, please, Maestro. So there's a close-up. When I saw this, it's part of it. A dollar coming in. Totally, but U.S. stocks also. U.S. stocks are doing great. Okay, next chart, please, Maestro. So there's a close-up. This is great. When I saw this, it reminded me. Oh, they both did the same cover? Well, no, this is 2016. Oh, shit. That was on the top?

Look at the chart, John. Next chart. Yeah, yeah. So that was. Oh, it's beautiful. I mean, you can't. You can't. And so when I saw the Barron's cover that morning,

because that's what I do on Saturday mornings, I look at the Barron's cover because I'm a nerd. I'm like, man, that looks familiar. When was that, Economist? Boom. Right. I'm not a magazine indicator guy. But when they work, it's pretty good. These are flawless.

Come on. This was such a perfect. So December 2016 was the last time we saw George Washington, muscle man, on the cover of a magazine. That was the top. Yeah. Beautiful. Can't make this up. And we got a flurry of them, too. We got a fl of a magazine. That was the top. Okay. Beautiful. Can't make this up. Next one.

And we got a flurry of them, too. We got a flurry of them. We got the Bloomberg. And by the way, before FTX was a Ponzi scheme, like the week before, they actually invented a new way for investors to buy the dollar. The week the dollar peaked. Who, FTX did? FTX did.

FTX listed dollar spot. Imagine you got the trade right. You're long dollars, but you did it at FTX. Double wrong. Wait. So read the subheader on the business we cover. The Fed has turned the US dollar into a wrecking ball dash. And there's no end in sight to the carnage.

Literally later that week. That week it was the top. God bless. Who wrote? I wonder who wroteage. Literally later that week. That week it was the top. God bless. I wonder who wrote it. All right, next. And then this is the performance of asset classes since then. Since the dollar peaked. The British pound bottomed on September the 26th.

The euro bottomed two days later. And then a couple of weeks later, emerging market currencies and yen bottomed, and the rest is history. The dollar's down 9% off its top. Which is a lot for currencies. Quickly. Three months. Yeah. It's a fast unwind. Actually, it's the first time that the dollar index is down three months in a row since the end of COVID, right when

the stock market started ripping. That's a big unwind. Okay, next. So, hold on. Go back real quick, John. So, what stands out here? International stocks outperforming the US. Silver outperforming gold. When precious metals

are doing well, silver outperforms. It's like the ETH Bitcoin thing. Yeah. We don't know yet. Fine, fine. We don't know yet.

So that's the big takeaway. Same concept. You want the higher beta one outperforming. So what do we want to own? We want to own the strength. And then the next chart is that strength.

That's pretty. Straza hates that I'm bullish of precious metals. I don't hate it. Why would he hate it? I'm on board. Because he's from Connecticut. He gets really obnoxious. Why is he saying you hate it? Oh, he does? That's pretty. Straza hates that I'm bullish of precious metals. I don't hate it. Why would he hate it? I'm on board. Because he's from Connecticut. He gets really obnoxious. Why is he saying you hate it?

Oh, he does? That's so weird. He gets super excited. JC? Yeah. What? Gold excites him. It does.

And he tells stories about how he used to be a gold bug. Does he talk about Vancouver? He starts charting gold in like Turkish lira and anything that's making new all-time highs. Wait. So this is gold versus US treasury bonds, all-time highs, gold versus the S&P, six-month highs. Gold has been a big disappointment for people that thought like, oh, inflation up, gold will go up.

But now, why is it all of a sudden working now? Because for me, that's the catalyst. The fact that we finally get the inflation print that all these people have been waiting for for so long and gold goes down. Yeah, it's amazing. That's the catalyst. It's like, oh, my God, nothing's going to work now. So, okay.

So, enough people gave up on it. Okay. You see gold making all-time highs now? I mean, it's making new all-time highs in every other currency. Right. So, why not the dollar? Yeah. This looks like a huge breakout in the making to me.

I do too. Knowing nothing. Looks good. In strong uptrends for asset classes, they don't just do well on an absolute basis. They also tend to outperform their alternatives. And what are two- I'll give you- Can I give you like a-

I'll give you like an even simpler reason. reason. Most money managers, financial advisors, family office people, when they're creating a portfolio prospectively for the next client, they're going to overweight the thing that just did the best because it makes the back test look better. Here's your asset classes for next year, Mr. Jones. We're going to do, normally we do 60% stock. Maybe we're going to do like 50. And normally we would be 40% bonds. Maybe we're going to be like 35. And we're going to do, normally we do 60% stock. Maybe we're going to do like 50. And normally we would be 40% bonds. Maybe we're going to be like 35. And we're going to have a 15% sleeve of alts. And within those alts, we're going to do like 7% gold.

Gold was flat in 21, or 22 rather. So you lost money bonds, lost money stocks. Gold was flat. Therefore, new portfolios being invested today, there's now a gold sleeve again, just like there used to be. And everyone abandoned that. People are like, yeah, why do you need gold at all? So now all of a sudden, hey, let's do some gold. It's defensive, blah, blah, blah. It didn't go down in 22. I just don't think it's that defensive. We've had gold going up in gold

markets. Of course, we know it's not. It was defensive last year. That's all that matters. Was it though? Yes, it was flat. What else was flat last year? year. That's all that matters. Was it though? Yes, it was flat. What else was flat last year? Seriously, nothing. Energy was up. Everything was down. Gold was flat. Good enough. But you don't say that about the US dollar. That thing is getting allocated

to this year. I just know human nature. And trending in that direction more importantly though, right? People don't look at the US dollar like an investable asset class. They look at it as cash. This is an investable asset class. It was flat last year when everything else f***ed you up. It's that simple. Let's just get to chart 48. It's flat it as cash. This is an investable asset class. It was flat last year when everything else f***ed you up. It's that simple. Let's just get to chart 48. It's flat for a decade. I

love that, Jess, because we always say relative strength is contagious. You'll see something break out against one denominator, then it's only a matter of time before it starts outperforming another one, and you'll see just one after another relative strength breakout, and that makes sense because there's just incremental buyers. It keeps getting overweighted.

Listen, everybody invests in the rearview mirror, and especially professionals. Because professionals don't just have to convince themselves. They have to convince other people why what they're doing for them is the right thing. It's pretty damn easy to convince somebody that owning gold in 2023 is the right thing, given the fact that it was flat last year when even treasury bonds got killed to me these are all allocation questions and flows also too you know from a defensive standpoint if somebody wants something defensive in their portfolio where are you going to go right now dollars getting blown up yen hasn't worked bonds haven't worked gld bitch that's it that's. All right. What do we got next?

So does this trend look like it's over? This is stocks versus commodities. That new downtrend that we've been in for the last couple of years, does that look over? Does that look like it's still got more to go? We won't know until much later, but this looks like it's free-flowing. Is that a chart you want to buy? Not really. No.

Right. So what does that mean? That continues. You're looking at commodities. How much of CRB index is oil? I think 30. 30%-ish? Yeah.

Okay. Precious metals are not big in this. Less than 10%. Right. So what's carrying the rest of the low? I mean, you got agriculture, banks, metals. Yep. Yep.

And those are your defensives, which is also interesting. Because you're getting that defensive leadership in commodities similar to the stock market. And the stocks related to these things look incredible. But commodities don't look good. You see like John Deere recently? Wait, what? Caterpillar. Look at this chart. ADM.

Those are the kinds of charts too. Caterpillar, Deere where you look at them and say, how bad could things be if Caterpillar is about to make new all-time highs? They're industrials, not tech. I thought we were going to be in a manufacturing recession and all industrial activity was... Anyway, when you're looking at commodity ETFs, what do you guys look at?

Because I'm looking at DBC. Yeah, they're fine. It looks terrible. All the DBs are okay, but none of those funds really do a good job. We overlay them with the actual commodities or the futures. They don't work because they have to roll futures. And that's expensive. Overlay USO with crude oil. It's not the same. When you they don't work because they have to roll futures. And that's expensive.

Overlay USO with crude oil. It's not the same. When you talk about an asset allocation standpoint and a lot of financial advisors, you could speak to that, look at ETFs and things like that. There just aren't vehicles.

So the fact that not only are investors not in commodities, they don't even have... You got FTX inventing new ways to buy the dollar and you don't even have... Like a friend of mine

works at like John Nuveen and they run mutual funds that they're not indexes, but they capture the upside and unfortunately the downside of commodities better than an ETF. Right. That makes sense. Because the ETF is a slave to its own rules. They're doing front month natural gas. Yeah. They have to roll it.

Everyone in the marketplace knows they have to roll it. It's a little bit of a wreck. They're short-term vehicles. Use them for a tactical setup or a trade buy. I don't think you don't want to hold those things too long. I agree with you. For sure. Alright. Thanks. So new six-month highs, gold and silver.

Right? So they're all participating. Platinum's making new highs also. Keep going, John. And then here's gold. This is the chart. This is the chart. Yeah, yeah. So gold is gold. Gold priced in every commodity,

every currency on earth. Australian dollar, euro, South African rand, rupee, the kiwi, yen. It's up, up, up, up. Lower left to the upper right. All of them. Looks good.

It's also making new highs relative to the FTX token. I'm surprised to hear that okay good to know good to know so here's your etf so the trade's been belong against those you know late 2020 early 2021 lows that's your whipsaw that's the catalyst to get it back up to those highs in the 2000s and then i think that's the third fourth test of those highs the the more times the level's tested. GLD 200 could be GLD 220 in two days. People are going to lose their minds. I mean, at a decade-long base,

you're looking at GLD 300. Yo, everyone's going to be like, how am I not in this? Yeah, I agree. It's going. Flows alone could do the job. Gold is interesting that way. Like, the physical doesn't move around that much, but the ETF could absolutely drive what the physical is worth. It's because it's big. And could absolutely drive what the physical is worth. Yep.

Because it's big. And an even better way to play is probably the miners. Next chart. Right. You're getting the leverage play on the miners. So look at this base in silver. This is the only quarterly candlestick I brought, by the way. Quarterly candlesticks back to 1970.

Look at you. You like that, huh? Yeah. If you like – you can't like silver if you don't like gold. Dude, gold bugs love this chart. No, I know. When I show gold bugs this chart, they get very excited. Yeah, yeah.

But I'm saying if you don't like the setup in gold, then you're not buying silver for the most part. Silver is basically the leverage play of gold. You're getting more juice in silver. That's right. It's the crazy little – It's the higher beta. Yeah. Okay.

Yeah. Yeah, people are like, oh, you like silver. Well, why not gold? It's like, no, bro. I do like gold. That's why I like silver. All right. What do we got here?

I love this chart. This is the 30 largest gold and silver miners listed in the US, XAU. We're back above those key. This is like a Philadelphia in like an old school index. We were just talking about that. PHLX. There used to be these little exchanges in every city. There's 30 gold miners?

There's way too many gold miners. There's all these juniors. I feel like if we had like three and two were in Canada, it would be fine. Is Numont still in the S&P or did it get kicked out? I think it's still in. It's the single gold miner. When it gets added to the Dow, that's the top. That's the top.

So hold on. So this one looks way – this is the index itself looks way better than the GDX. That would be just beautiful. That would be poetic if they kick Newmont out right now. Newmont is on its way out. Let's be honest. That would be great. That would be very bullish.

That would be very bullish. So we got to trade for you traders out there. John? So we like AGI. A lot of these look like this. We like relative strength. Alamos Gold? Okay.

It even sounds like a fake company. But that's how I like my gold miners. I love Alamos. I want them to sound like they don't relative strength. Alamos Gold? Okay, it even sounds like a fake company, but that's how I like my gold miners. I love Alamos. I want them to sound like they don't really exist. Yamana Gold. I like that shit.

Louise Yamana Gold. Something like that. I want my gold miners to sound like fake, like complete Ponzi's. Definitely. Whatever's that. Hold on,

let me look at the fundamentals on this bandwagon. First Majestic. First Majestic is another good one. Drop it, Josh. First Majestic. Isn't that a casino? I don't even think this thing files quarterly savings,

so you're wasting your time. These are like the altcoins of the gold mining space. Yo, you remember when the CEO of AMC, he was going to save the company by investing money in a gold mine? Does anyone remember that? Yes. Like two years ago. That was some hilarious shit.

That was awesome. Is that real? Yes. It was very real. In real life, he bought a gold microcap. He acquired a gold mine. How'd that work out? They were all about it.

I don't know. I don't think well because isn't that a $4 stock now? They're going out. These companies are such pieces of garbage. Yeah. Who would have ever thought that one would kick off? you hear about Bed Bath & Beyond today? Pieces of garbage. Yeah, who would have ever thought that one would kick off? I know.

Bed Bath & Beyond is not going well? All right. What are we saying here? So risk-reward. Above 960, you own it. Below that, you can be patient, but above 960, you own it.

Cool, cool. Target of 14. I'll buy it in the after hours. I doubt it. Energy hasn't even broken out yet, Josh. Wow. Right, it's ripped off. It's low, but it's not. It hasn't broken out. We're below even broken out yet, Josh. Wow. Right.

It's ripped off its low, but it hasn't broken out. We're below the 0.8 highs, Josh. Yeah. I'm bullish. I'm in. Triple. I'm in. I like it.

If you're in, I'm in. I'm in the IEO. I just own all the producers. Which one is IEO? Producers? It's just the producers. All right. There's no Exxon in there.

Okay. It's a hardcore natural gas and oil. Hardcore. Yeah. All right. I'm saying this the whole time. I'm in. All right.

Let's look for some trades. I like Chevron. I've been in Chevron. It's been a huge winner. Beautiful bays. We've talked about it, you and I, plenty of times. Yeah. Consolidating at that 185, 186 level.

I think you buy the breakout. This is the non-crackhead way to put on an oil trade. It's like dividend, buyback. But sometimes you want to be a crackhead, though. No, I get it. I'm saying if you feel like oil's up so much, how do I buy it? Like this is probably not a company. You might be down in the stock, but you won't regret that you bought Chevron. I mean, it depends what year it is. You know what I'm saying? Like, I think there's a time and a place for everything. This is all you want to talk about market leaders. You want to talk

about this is both a bellwether and a leader. That's right. Right? That's right. To continue with that conversation. So I like buying a breakout above 186. And then John, next chart. You got to be impressed with the outperformance of energy stocks, despite oil getting destroyed.

Crazy. Oil's getting crushed. Yeah, we did a whole thing. We did a whole thing about that the other day. That's a chart. People don't even realize crude is back in the 70s. Crude is down big, and these stocks are not going down. No.

Wait, so what we're looking at is a chart, XLA divided by SPY, so you're seeing tons of relative strength out of energy stocks. Meanwhile, crude oil is rolling over, and has that ever happened on this chart, Jason? It's an 11-month round trip. I'd be curious. We should do some work on the divergences and how long they could last. We'll run that, but forget all that. It's just in general. Oil's getting killed, and oil and gas stocks don't go down. So for a lot of people, though, that's the reason why they wouldn't buy energy stocks, because they would say to themselves,

if crude doesn't bounce back toward those highs in the next few months, I'm going to get killed in these stocks. All right. So now flip that on its head. If energy stocks can't fall with oil falling, what are energy stocks going to do when oil bounces? If it bounces. Well.

I get it. Let that oil keep going down. Clearly, it's not hurting the energy stocks, right? Yeah, they still look great. Yeah, that's what I'm saying. It's pretty impressive. Short term, they're still below overhead supply. The XLE hasn't broken out.

The oil services haven't broken out. But they're getting there. When energy was getting killed, there was the OIH names, the Baker Hughes, Transocean, and Schlumberger. I mean, just garbage. And now they're leaders. Huge. The oil services are leaders in the oil and gas space right now. Baker Hughes is one of the NASDAQ oil names now.

Is it? I think so, yeah. Yeah, I think you're right. Do they still do rig counts? Is that still a thing? Yep. I mean, they don't do it around me, but yeah, it's still a thing. All right, next.

All right, so this is Straz's favorite because Uncle Oren's always buying under 60. Steve, give it to us. So we went back and looked through all of the Berkshire filings, Form 4 filings, basically when they've been buying Occidental stock, and we marked when and where. Is he on half the company now? No.

But he can. Is he buying at support? Does he have a technician? He calls me. He's like, yo, Jay, what are we looking at, bro? Okay, there you go. He is support. He kept coming in whenever the price would fall below $60.

Yeah. More. Yeah. And they keep on putting a floor in the stock. Now look where we are today. Back towards $60. That's awesome. I'm thinking I'll wake up tomorrow and maybe see a form for it from Buffett.

Actually just fell below $60 and ripped. We haven't seen the filing yet, but I have a funny feeling. You know what else is awesome? I haven't mentioned this. Straz has got a Tropical Brew stick around your shirt. You're a big fan as well? I was just saying to John. I almost wore funny feeling. You know what else is awesome? I haven't mentioned Stratus. It's got a Tropical Brew stick around your shirt. You're a big fan as well? I was just saying to John, I almost wore that today. Dude, is that a great quarter zip?

Love that zip. Yeah. Love Tropical Brew. So you like Oxy right here? Above 60. Above 60. Listen, yeah. Well, below 60, Berkshire is not dumping their position in Oxy.

No. They seem like they want to go higher. No. In fact, it's probably not going to get much below 60 because they want to get to that 50% probably. Why can't Berkshire Hathaway go above 50%? Because then they would have to consolidate it as a... Because God forbid you're allowed to buy energy stocks

in the United States of America. No, seriously? Yeah. He had to go to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission or whatever first. Is that right? And get permission to acquire up to 50%. And he did that though.

Yeah. So what other industries? He called the shot. Yeah, I just think it's not easy being an energy investor these days. There's a lot of headwinds there. Okay, next. So these are all the filings. Yeah, so we put together the table.

Holy shit. This is gigantic amounts of money. But look at the prices. Look at the price. Every time it dips under 60. Every time it dips under $60. Every time it's under $60, he has a standing order to buy this stuff. Look at these numbers. Look at the cost base.

It's hilarious. $350 million, $390 million. So that's $9 billion worth of Oxy he's bought so far. That we know of because we haven't seen the recent filings. And this does not include the warrants, which I think are for, what, another 80 million shares or something? Wow. Okay. All right.

So he's somewhat bullish. You think? Yeah. Okay. Next. So that's where our buy level is, right? So our risk level is about 57.50. You got that shelf of old blows there.

You got to fight with his traders to buy it. I don't mind fighting with them. I'll be buying right where they are. JC Strass and Warren Buffett combined on 30% on larger. The Buffett zone. Okay, very cool. Yeah, the Buffett zone.

I like that. Very cool. All right. By the way, did we blow past chart 48? That was it. That was it. The moment we've all been waiting for. It's a good one, though.

We need it. No, we need it. We need it. We need it. Ladies and gentlemen need it. We need it. We need it. Ladies and gentlemen, that has been chart 48. How many more charts we got? All right, so hold on. Go to the next one.

600 more. I'm not doing this. Next chart. Hold on. The world does not revolve around large caps. There are other stocks, too. Nobody gives a shit. Oil and gas.

Come on. Don't be bringing these pink sheet stocks on my show. It's $2 billion. I don't care. Next. $2 billion. These are all the small caps looking at relative strength. Subscribe to All-Star Charts if you want JC's billion-dollar companies.

No, I do love this stuff. 1.7. They're all at 52-week highs, more or less. These are small caps showing relative strength. We changed the rules and decided the small caps are now between one and four billion. Traditionally, it's what? 300 to two billion? Inflation adjusted.

Yeah. Market cap adjusted. You know, because, I mean, you know, but there's market cap inflation. What's that Coke one? Is that the bottling plant? The KOF? Yes. Well, it's a foreign.

It's an ADR. It's Mexican Coke. Yeah. Okay. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Is that owned by Coca-Cola? Probably. Probably. Yeah. So anyway, that's what this looks It's an ADR. It's Mexican Coke. Okay. Is that owned by Coca-Cola? Probably.

Probably. Yeah. So anyway, that's what this looks like. They look good. Yeah. There's names. There's winners and losers, guys. Look at European financials.

A 26% in the fourth quarter on fears of the upcoming global recession. Yeah. Right? All right. I guess we'll see. Or the Russian invasion. By the way, we've never had a recession start in a pre-election year. This could be a scenario where the market's just really wrong. Like, obviously.

Or not. Is it the market that's wrong? We'll find out. We'll find out. All right. Let's keep it rolling. All right, let's keep it rolling, John. Japanese banks also working out well.

By the way, this is 56 billion. Is that big enough market cap for you there, JV? Yeah. By the way, Buffett's in the Japanese financials. He's in the trading companies, but yeah, pretty close. You like this one? Yeah, this thing went nuts. SMFG, the Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group.

JC, what is this? The All-Star Charts Hall of Famers. What is that? Look at that logo. It's fantastic. Look at the next chart real quick. The little Lebowski Achievers. The Urban Achievers.

The Urban Achievers. Except they're much bigger. These are the largest companies in the world outside of the United States. So we take literally the largest market cap companies that have ADRs here that are foreign. And then some countries, their largest stock doesn't make our criteria. So we just throw in the largest company in a country if it doesn't. So these are near 52-week highs, foreign stocks with the dollar headwind. Yeah.

So in local terms, it's even better. And if the dollar weakness persists, like these are going to run. These are all New York Stock Exchange prices. Wow. I was looking at Chubb CB. It's one of the best charts I've ever seen. Swiss-based insurance company.

It's really a US company, but I guess Swiss headquarters or Swiss for tax reasons, but whatever. This's really a US company, but I guess Swiss headquarters or Swiss for tax reasons, but whatever. This thing is a beast. All the property casualty insurance companies look sick right now. Marshall McLennan, Progressive, all these things look great. They're all on the 52

week high school. United Healthcare, and then look at Chubb right near the top of the list. So go back to the Japanese stock. I outlined the risk reward. Call it 770 or so. You're above those 52-week highs. You stay long. You got 30% upside. For those of you that own Sumo, Tumo, Mutsu

And these aren't bullshit companies. These are gigantic. $56 billion. It's not the small cap you guys maybe not talk about. Yeah, yeah. Alright, let's keep it rolling, baby. So, industrial. Does that look like a downtrend? Does that look like a bear market to you? No.

These stocks look great. When you look at them individually, like I was looking at the defense subcategory of industrials like Raytheon, Lockheed. Every one of these stocks is making a lot of money. Grumman, General Dynamics. All of them except Boeing. These are not 50-week highs. These are all-time record highs.

Yeah, but none of the other ones have the left part. Right, right, right. Yeah. Boeing actually looks worse than most of them.-week highs. These are all-time record highs. Yeah, but none of the other ones have the left part. Right, right, right. Yeah. Boeing actually looks worse than most of them. Like, most of them are all-time record highs. Especially if you zoom out on Boeing, yeah. When you look at the weighting of these things, Boeing is, like, such a small weighting compared to what it used to be.

Lockheed looks sick. Lockheed's great. I know. General Barton. RTN. Wathion. GD. Yeah, Northrop.

Making all the missiles and shit that we're throwing at people. Keep it rolling, John. So there you go, Josh. Look at the aerospace and defense. I'm in the CTF. Look at his baton neck. What's Raytheon's sticker? RT...

RTN. People don't even understand what's going on to drive this. Germany and Japan, two countries that basically had no military after World War II, are both rearming, like just for the new reality of the world.

That's a good looking chart. Like the amount of money that's going to be spent on military anything in the next 10 years is going to dwarf the last 10 years. All over the world. The individual stocks are already making new highs. So the ETF is being held down

by maybe things like Boeing and things like that. So what's the individual name? What's the best looking one in there? You just named a bunch of them, right? Lockheed looks incredible. Lockheed. NOC keeps making new highs. Raytheon, like you said.

General Dynamics. The thing is, if you would look at these charts, they're already up so much. You'd be like, I don't know. But when you look at the ETF, look at the potential. Yeah. So that's how I'm in it. Yeah, it looks great.

I'm in the ETA. So also healthcare next. Healthcare making new all-time highs on a regular basis. Yeah, this is great. I mean, what's there's a large cap health that continues to work. The world does not revolve

around mega cap growth. No. Yeah, this is Merck, Pfizer. Right. And biotech stopped going down. Biotech stopped going down. But we don't talk about small caps here.

So careful. Okay, next. So this is a Hall of Famer. Yeah. Healthcare company. Is this Alfonsovo Nordisk. Yeah, healthcare company. Is this Alfonso's favorite spot? One of the biggest. Shout out Alfonso. Where is it?

This is Scandinavian, right? Denmark. Denmark, yeah, yeah. Okay, this thing looks sick. Right? Novo Nordisk, NVO. It literally says Denmark right up there. I didn't get all the way to the right corner.

This looks great. Wow. Right, so there are a lot of names. AstraZeneca. I knew I get all the way to the right corner. This looks great. Wow. Right? So there are a lot of names. AstraZeneca. I knew I should have bought this in 2004. Like Josh was telling me not to buy it. I said I want to buy it.

He said no. Yeah, well, you know, lower left to the upper right. We like that sort of thing around here. Okay, what else? Eli Lilly. Yeah, looks great. Who's buying this? Wow.

Nobody. Looks great. Stocks up. By definition, more than nobody are buying this. It's hard to find a better looking chart over the past five years. How about the stock was $100 going into 2020. Am I reading this right or wrong? You're reading it right.

It's $374. I don't know one person who talks about this stock. I can't buy this stock. And it's crazy because they're bigger than Merck and Pfizer now. Yeah. I don't know anybody. I talk about it almost every day, by the way. Besides you. No, I really don't know anybody that – I don't know anybody – I talk about it almost every day, by the way. Besides you.

No, I really don't. It's a $350 billion market cap. It might as well be invisible because they don't have a social network. It's a Hall of Famer. Yeah. It's crazy. Oh, do we have social stocks coming out? We didn't bring that.

No? Okay. I tried last time and you were like – All right. What do we got? So this is the U.S. Hall of Famer. So we have the International Hall of Famers. What is a Hall of Famer?

Just 52 weeks. Okay. It's the largest stocks in the U.S. Hall of Famers. We have the International Hall of Famers. What is a Hall of Famer? Largest stocks in the world. So this is the U.S. Hall of Famers, which is the largest 150 by market cap, right? And then, yeah, we scan by strength. We sort by highs. So these are the most important stocks in the world. Yeah. Period.

It's healthcare, industrials. And there's no tech on here at all. Why would there be? Right. So now it's incredible. Merck's another one. That base looks so good. Yeah.

TJ Maxx looks great. Monster Beverage is, like, so impressive. Staples, bro. That's an insane chart. You know what looks like shit? Domino's. That was one of the biggest winners. Because that has the pandemic hangover.

It looks terrible. Oh, who eats that stuff? That has, like, the hangover of, like, the stocks that did the best in the pandemic. It did too well. It, who eats that stuff? That has like the hangover of like the stocks that did the best in the pandemic. It did too well. It did too well. It's one of those. Can you imagine eating that for dinner?

I love Domino's. I never eat it. Stop it. I do. I do. I do. You eat the pizza there? No, dude.

At 1 a.m. No, no, no. Nothing else is open. We live in the suburbs. At 1 a.m. Nothing else is open. Nobody else is bringing pizza to you. Domino's will literally bring you a pizza

at 1 in the morning. And I haven't ordered pizza at 1 a.m. in 10 years. 20 years. I was going to say. Okay a pizza. I haven't ordered pizza at 1am in 10 years. I was going to say. I have two teenagers in my house. They both have the Domino's app on their phone. And I do not let them do Uber Eats because it's like $30

for like that's food. I will let them order Domino's if they get home late from whatever parties they were at. I'm like, I'm the cool dad. And I will definitely sneak down and grab a slice. Pepperoni bacon? 100% I will. No, they just get like plain pizza.

But I will sneak down and grab one. I live in Key West. I'm not going to lie. There's been some late nights where we bust out the Domino's app too. You live in Key West? Yeah. You got to. There's no other pizza down there.

It's the only thing we eat late at night. I've been proven wrong. Proven wrong here. No, I'm not saying it's good. It's not optimal. It's cheap. It's easy. You're like the biggest pizza snob I know. Dude, I'm not ordering it's good it's not optimal it's easy you're like the biggest pizza snob i know dude i'm not ordering it i'm not proud of it if you were 14 if you were

14 years old it's great at what it does you got back from like you got back from like a party at your friend's house or a bar mitzvah or whatever and you're starving and your dad lets you order and it's dominoes you're eating you're eating dom's. There is a time and a place for Domino's. That's right. All right. And it's 1 a.m. Domino's is not a Hall of Famer. No. Not a Hall of Famer.

All right, Sean. All right. So Chinese internet leading the market higher if the world's about to come to an end or European banks and Chinese internet leading the way? I'm not buying these stocks. We could have made this chart a lot nicer, though. Zoomed in on KWeb and you got a beautiful base there.

If I were more of a trader than I am, definitely I would be all over this stuff. I'm not paying close enough attention to it to be doing these trades. I've learned that about myself. I would say 20% ago, this could have just been a dead cat bounce, but it's persisted for too long. I'll tell you why. It's gone up too much. From a technical standpoint, I know you'll agree, you're getting momentum thrusts. It's clear in recent highs.

Yeah, but even throw in like a rate of change indicator on that, and you'll just see crazy thrusts, whether you do it on a one-day rate of change, one week, two weeks, three weeks. You're seeing momentum kind of just spike in a way that it never has. Do you know why? The stuff that you tend to see at bottoms. You know what started this? In new bull markets. They had a degree of social unrest for the first time in probably 30 years. Yeah. That caused so much of an uproar across the international media.

It literally forced them to do an about face on COVID lockdowns. And they started loosening up with the crackdown on the giant tech companies there. Like they let Ant Financial do a financing. So basically they made a decision. We don't want protesters in the street and we don't want our stock market to go to zero. So now all of a sudden technology companies are back in favor sort of. They're letting us audit them too. That's right.

And that about face explains the, I'm not saying I could have predicted it, but like, if you were just casually reading the headlines, knowing nothing about China, like me, for example, you would say, oh man, shit is fucked up in China. You would never be buying these stocks. But people that actually know about this stuff would have looked at it and said,

they're going to break the government. Well, so I read China Tonight. That's where I got, you know said, they're going to break the government. I read China Tonight. That's where I got it. And they did. They broke the government. These stocks also fell in a way that growth stocks in the U.S. did not. Yeah, these stocks were demolished. The drawdowns in Alibaba, like the biggest Chinese tech stocks.

They were delisting them. So I think they came from very low levels. Yeah. So that happened too. And another thing I would love to know what you guys think about this. I was reading yesterday all the economic data in China is just still hitting multi-year lows. Like it's a real crisis over there. And it's fake anyway.

I was going to say. Imagine how bad it really is. Right. But isn't that a great example of how the market is going to bottom and turn long before the economy? Well, that will turn because they're easing restrictions and they're reopening manufacturing. And that will definitely turn. Yeah. So, okay.

Can we just talk about for a second how important it is to just invest in what you see, trade what's in front of you and don't overthink and don't overcomplicate. Oh, the recession, the stagflation, the Fed, the this, the blah, blah, blah. Everyone's got inflation. What about just buying the things

that are making new highs? You know, buying the things that are going up, staying away from the ones going down. Like we don't need, like you've made a perfectly good reason as to why this is happening. You've made some great points. Great. Let's say we didn't know all that,

or let's say both of you were wrong. Who gives a shit? Because there are people in this world who actually need to understand the reason, even if they accept your premise that just focus on price, price is telling you what's really happening. I'm not against that approach.

I'm just telling you there are people in the world that don't want to live with the regret of buying a chart that they didn't understand the underlying and then being wrong on the trade over and over and over again. And a lot of times you buy breakouts that fail. You buy uptrends that stop the day you bought them. If you don't even know why you bought it in the first place, you will hate yourself much more than if you just bought it, got stopped out and moved on.

And I'm just saying like, I'm not saying one is better than the other. There are a lot of people that will trade on tacticals, but also want to understand the fundamental reason for why what they're seeing is happening. Like Buffett. Even if it doesn't work. Like Buffett with Oxy. Even if it doesn't work that way.

All that is great and you're 100% right. What I'm saying is that let this be a good reminder to not worry about any of that other stuff and just trade what's in front of you. Fair enough. You know what I'm saying? Trade what's in front of you. Listen, I got you. Moving on. So you were just talking about the US dollar. Emerging 38%

emerging EEM is 38% China? Nobody's positioned for this. Yeah, it's way too much China. Nobody's positioned for this. Because they tried so many times. I don't blame them. I don't blame them. There's no way anyone's going to believe in an emerging market rally unless it goes on for four years.

You touch a hot stove enough, you get burnt. No, but every rally in emerging markets back to 2010 has failed. So no one's going to believe in this for like years. It'll be like, oh yeah, there they go again. Now, whether they believe in it or not, how are those stocks doing if the dollar keeps falling? Boom. They should be doing better.

Yeah. So let's see if we get a dollar bounce because the dollar's back to those 2016 highs, by the way. Yeah. So let's see what kind of balance we get. We got a little bit of a balance. Plus, historically, there's been a positive correlation with commodities.

So if you believe in that commodity trade having legs. It's not the same as it used to be, though. It's not. Of course. This is now a growth index. We've spoken about that a lot, the change in nature.

Yeah, because you have more technology companies in this index than there used to be. It's not your dad's EEM. It's not. Most people would not believe that emerging markets, even in dollar terms, have outperformed the S&P 500

over the last year. That's pretty crazy. I wouldn't believe it. They did. Not by a lot. But there's your denominator fallacy. It's because the denominator there is a growth-heavy index.

Right. Right. Not so much that EEM has done so well. Over the last year, 17.5 down versus 19.25 down. That's like not nothing either. Yeah. It's almost 200 basis points

of outperformance. Alpha. There we go. All right. See, John. Consumer staples going up is not characteristic of a bear market. Consumer staples going up is very consistent with the stock market going up. It is?

I always learned it as it's a defensive way to be long the stock market. If they're going up on a relative basis, though, that's a different story. But aren't they? Aren't they? They are. They are. So we're going to get to that. They though, that's a different story. But aren't they? Aren't they? They just broke out of a massive base. We're going to get to that. But the point is, on an absolute basis, consumer stable stocks doing well does not, that's not a bearish thing

for the stock market. They're stocks, too. But relative outperformance is bearish. Right? So let's get into it. So we're looking at a stock here. Do we have the next chart, John? Go to the next chart real quick. One more. I don't think we brought it. Oh, we didn't bring it? One more, John. One more. One more. Keep going. Keep going.

No, the other way. The other way. Are we out of charts? Oh, no. All right. Go back up. Go back up. Go back up. Go back up. All right. What I was going to show, go back to the Staples chart real quick. Go back to the Staples chart. What I was going to say is on a relative basis... How perfectly these match up, though. Yeah. Because they're stocks. Staples versus the S&P. Because they're stocks. But on a relative basis. We're going to help perfectly these match up, though. What's the same? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Because they're stocks.

Staples versus the S&P. Because they're stocks. But on a relative basis, consumer staples are outperforming. Yeah. Right? They're outperforming. But what's the denominator when we say relative basis? We're talking about the S&P 500, which is very growth heavy.

Yeah. When you use the XLI, when you use industrials as the denominator, so you're essentially- Why would you do that? Well, historically, the industrials have the highest correlation with the S&P of all of the individual sectors. So it gives you value instead of growth. So what you're doing is you're sticking with that correlation, but you're

eliminating the growth. So when you compare consumer staples relative to industrials and low volatility relative to industrials, they're breaking down. Yeah, I said they don't look good. They don't look good. The industrials are low volatility relative to industrials. They're breaking down. Yeah, I said they don't look good. They don't look good. The industrials are taking the lead.

I said this chart looks shitty, but that's what you just said. So the denominator fallacy of- What is that? Denominating things in the S&P, you're by definition making the numerator look good if you have a heavy growth denominator. The other thing with the consumer staples, underappreciated, it's not just that they can be defensive because their business fundamentals hold up better. They are growth stocks

because all of the growth of those companies is going to come from overseas. So when the international markets are doing well and it's not the end of the world in Europe and Asia, the consumer staples companies benefit from that. They're not pure defensives. They're not utilities. And I think people get confused with that.

So what do we got here? All right. So let's get into some trades. JM Smucker. SJM, $17 billion market cap. What is the bottom chart? Oh, that's just relative. But the food companies in general.

Actually, that's relative to Russell 3. Okay. Yeah. Packaged foods. Okay. Yeah. Packaged foods. That's great. A lot of what I call grocery store stocks. They're all working. And every one of these is an eventual private equity takeover target.

Every single one of them. What's the dude, Nelson Feltz, like that sort of stuff? 3G in Brazil. The Brazilian, yeah. Yeah. They did Kraft with Buffett, right? Buffett finances these things. His move is he puts up the capital

because he's got such a great credit rating. But then they're the operators. And then he takes an equity piece, but they do all the work. Got it. He's not manning the ketchup plant.

You know what I mean? It's Buffett's side hustle. It's his side hustle. Okay. James Smoker, you got one more. Mondelez's Oreos. Right?

Basically. A lot of sugar. What the f*** is a confectioner? Yeah, they do sugar. They sell your shit. Confectioner? Yeah. They sell of sugar. What the f*** is a confectioner? Yeah, they do sugar. They sell you shit. Confectioner? Yeah. They sell you poison. Confectioner is that candy manufacturer. I never heard that word before. Nothing they make is good for anyone.

Right. Exactly. Except for shareholders. Alright. 2.3% yield. $91 billion market cap. This is the next one to break out, you think? But it's not the yield. What do you mean? That yield's a little high for me. The yield is not the issue, dude. I don't love that yield. The yield is break out, you think? But it's not the yield. What do you mean? That yield's a little high for me.

The yield is not the issue, dude. I don't love that yield. The yield is not the issue, dude. The yield's a little high. It's the fact that they keep raising their yields. Yeah, it's an aristocrat, right? No. It's what they call a challenger. It's a young aristocrat.

We call young aristocrats. It's a little. Yeah, yeah. I like a little better. Yeah. Where are you leading us to? Dinner. The young aristocrats.

He's leading us to dinner. Let's go. The young aristocrats are the stocks that are almost going to be- On their way. They're on their way. A third of the way there. Meaning they've been paying growing dividends for 10 years? Five to nine.

Five to nine years. And an aristocrat's 25. It's a great list. Can you put this out? Does this go to all of your subs or this is a specific product that people sign up for how do you sell young aristocrats so our premium subscribers receive it so the highest level of our subscription service they receive it but but go on here because we're friends with the compound next slide john if you are interested in the the last one if you're interested in this most recent, the 2023 Young Aristocrats, go to

allstarchurch.com slash YA and we'll shoot it over to you. Look at that. That's pretty cool. Alright, so they'll get the list of how often does the membership change? Is it annual? To the Young Aristocrats? Yeah. It changes every month. Every month. Okay. So they'll get the newest updated version. Oh, yeah.

Once a month's a good amount for this list, right? Yeah, these are longer-term setups. You know, we're looking at longer-term chart patterns. Very cool. So, guys. We're out of charts. We're out of charts, and we covered a lot of ground. And we're out of time.

Yeah, we're out of time. There was some other stuff we were going to do. We were going to throw it out. We were going to look at Michael Batnick's predictions. I loved your list, dude. Oh, thank you. Yeah. It's a good list.

So Michael thinks Jeff Bezos is going to return to Amazon and he went on TV and said it and it became international news. What channel are you on? What channel? He was on CBC. I also predicted I'll get 3 out of 10 right.

No, but he made the point. This is my favorite point. They're like, why is he going to come back to Amazon? He's like, well, he had a $200 billion net worth, and now it's $100 billion. Most normal people draw their line in the sand at $100 billion in losses. Right?

That was just – that was like his – That's really funny. I was trying to say he's down to his last $100 billion. Like you got to draw the line somewhere. I honestly – I would agree with you that he's coming back. Yeah. Except he's having way too much fun with that new girlfriend. Well, wait till the stock drops

to 40%. You see the two of them? They're like on a different yacht every day. He's having way too much fun to come back. You're shitting it up. Yeah, who cares? Let it go to zero. Alright, so I just want, as we move on to favorites, I just want to say the menu is on HBO Max and it was a fun movie and I love Ray Fiennes. He's one of the best out there.

I am more or less full though on like the Eat the Rich theme, which is basically what it was. It was like White Lotus-ish, you know? Okay. Right? Like they're milking that

like pretty aggressively. I didn't think it was going to turn into that. I thought the chef would just be a psychopath, but basically, I'm spoiling the movie for everybody, right? What's the movie called? Don't spoil it. It's called The Menu.

It's dark satire and Ray Fiennes is just a genius. He's just one of the best. everybody. What's the movie called? Don't spoil it. It's called The Menu. It's dark satire. And Ray Fiennes is just a genius. He's just one of the best. You know who's in it? The young lady from Queen's Gambit on Netflix. Did you watch that? No. She's another.

Queen's Gambit? She's great. You would love Queen's Gambit. Would I? Yeah. What's it about? It's about chess. She's a psychotic chess like grandmaster.

Really? Like a teenage grandmaster. It's very good. All right. It's intense. She's great. Be really into it.master. It was very good. All right. It's intense. She's great. She's great. She's great.

All right. All right. Favorites is like, Straza, did you bring us any favorites that you think the audience would benefit? Books, TV shows, movies? No, but on the Netflix theme, I just, because I loved White Lotus too. Yeah. And I saw the trailer for, it was called Glass Onion.

Is that? Yeah. I watched it. Oh, that too. Another Eat the Rich Ones. Yeah. I'd saw the trailer for, it was called Glass Onion. Is that? Yeah, I watched it. Oh, that too. Another Eat the Rich One. Yeah, seven. I'd give it a seven. I thought it would be similar.

It was fine. It was 60, 70. No, because the first one was so good. What did they do? Did they just like stack the cast with like the most superstars? They had a killer cast. The problem was the storyline.

It sucked. It had a great cast. It sucked. They had, Kate Hudson was in it, which I haven cast the problem was the storyline it sucked it had a great cast it sucked they had uh Kate Hudson was in it which I haven't seen relatively it sucked relative to expectations

uh JC favorites you know you know I like uh I I I give you

maybe this could be your favorite the Knicks the Knicks have a better record than the Heat so far this year Mondelez is that could that be a favorite for you? In most years,

they do temporarily, right? And things start falling apart. He's not taking the bait. Riley should blow it up. It's time. There's still a lot of assets there. But they're always in it, though. They were a hairline

from making the NBA Finals last year. They're always in the conversation. Every year, they're in the conversation. But I do think that they should just ship Duncan's contract if they can, which is tough.

Well, yeah, obviously. It's a is tough. Well, yeah, obviously. It's a tough contract. Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's tough. We should go to the game next month. Are they in town? Yeah, they're in town. We should go.

I've been eating a brisket beef jerky. Right? You take the ends of the brisket. You're making? I'm not. I don't know how to do that. But I have friends that do that. And I'm not a beef jerky guy. This is not like, I'll eat beef jerky. Fine, I'll have a piece. I'm not like a beef jerky guy like this

It's not like I'll eat beef jerky like you fine. I'll have a piece, but I'm not a beef jerky guy brisket Jerky, but like why is it different because they take the fatty ends of the brisket So it's like almost like it's like white. It's like it literally melts in your mouth the candy Nicole you in for that You're in for brisket. Yeah, ask your butcher. Ask your local butcher. John, what do you think? And see what he says. Oh, 100%. You would try.

I would try. Can I do a food one? I got a food one. Yeah, yeah, yeah. It reminded me. To try and redeem myself from the Domino's comment. Yeah, please. That place in Brooklyn last night.

No, it's called Le Industry. Le Industry. Le Industry? It's like an L and then an apostrophe. Industry, yeah. I haven't been there. What is it? Fantastic.

Really? It's just, you know, legit New York style pizza. Oh, it's a pizza place. Awesome. Yeah. They sell the slices, everything. What part of Brooklyn?

It's the Italian neighborhood. Brooklyn has like 200 ridiculous pizza places. The best. It's the best. I have three. 1883. So I told you

I got tricked into the Paramount Plus app. Dude, Yellowstone sucks. I'm so mad. I watched 1883 and I liked it Plus app. Dude, Yellowstone sucks. I'm so mad. I watched 1883 and I liked it. Okay. Yellowstone season, whatever. It's so bad.

He just got into it. So he's still in the good season. The first three are incredible. Oh, are you watching? It's so bad. I stopped. I gave up this season. I quit.

So literally, I watched the last. I said, I think I'm done. I think I'm done. I'm very sad. Beth is the worst character on television. Wait, I haven't started that series yet. I'm very sad. Beth is the worst character on television. She was the best. I haven't started it yet. Why don't you guys do the next conference in Montana?

That'd be dope. What's the airport situation there? I've never been. The whale? Sword in the theaters? I f***ing cried. At the end, last scene. I really did. It's a story of...

It's Brendan Fraser. It's Brendan Fraser and his teenage daughter is the main story, and I just related to it so much. I have nothing in common with this guy. He actually makes me sick, the character. Who did you see it with? I took sprinkles. These days, we go to the movies to escape our kids.

Did she cry? Kids are monsters. Did she cry? She, like, loved it. It was incredible. It was... Honestly, the whole movie takes place in his apartment. They never – you never leave the apartment.

And it's just people coming and going. He's 600 pounds. He's wearing a 300-pound fat suit to do the – and he's sweating. But it's real sweat because he's working. He's acting in this – and trying to get – stand up. He's working. He's acting in this and trying to get stand up. He is beyond any doubt, in my opinion, going to win best actor.

It's just on so many levels, the movie is just like an incredible story. What's the name of the movie? It's called The Whale. And it's not because he weighs 600 pounds. There's another reason why it's called The Whale, but I'm not going to tell you. Because he owns more than 1,000 bitcoins. Yeah, that's right. He's a Bitcoin whale. This movie is just like

you walk out of it and you're just stunned. Like if you like movies and you're just like, oh my God, that was profound. You know who made it? Aronofsky. He's made a lot of movies like that. The Wrestler. Black Swan. Oh, I just re-watched The Wrestler. I just re-watched The Wrestler. That is so

dark. He's made some crazy good movies. This might be my favorite thing he's done. If you like Darren Aronofsky, go watch the movie Pi. Of course. P-I.

I've told him a million times how much he would like it. He's never listened to me. He's never watched it. It's one of my favorite movies ever. Because I had so much time to watch the movie, right? That was his debut best finance movie.

Yeah. Yeah. Amazing movie. Last one. Black and white. I got a chance to watch a lot of movies while we were off. Emancipation on Apple. Will Smith.

Was it good? Do you guys work or you just watch movies? I watch movies mostly. Dude, watch Emancipation. Yeah? Don't watch it with the boys in the room though. Okay. It is one of the most brutally violent movies I've ever seen.

Will Smith looks like he lost 50 pounds to play this role. He's like a runaway slave. This movie is, it's, you know who made it? Antoine Fuqua, is that his name? The guy that made Training Day. He's made like a, he's made really great action movies with guns and helicopters. This is like obviously set during slavery

and it's just super intense. And it's the best acting i've seen will smith do in a while like the most he's not playing will smith you know what i mean like he's playing somebody totally alien to will smith i thought it was amazing all right that's all that's all we have today do we run out of tape all right is there a longest one ever two hours yeah no you guys were amazing by the way we only got halfway through the charts. Yeah, let's do the second set of charts now. We had so many more.

I bet you did. All right. Guys, we love you. We're going to send everybody to allstarcharts.com to learn more about all of the amazing stuff that you guys put out. And thank you so much for bringing this to our audience today. We didn't even do interest rates. We decided against it. He's like, no rates? I'm like, uh. We'll do that. We didn't even do interest rates. We decided against it. He's like,

no rates? I'm like, uh... We'll do that next time. Yeah, you guys come back. We'll do it next time. Thank you, guys. Rates aren't going anywhere.

Where do we follow you specifically, Straza? Are you on Twitter? At SStraza on Twitter or you'll find me on allstarchops.com. At SStraza on Twitter or also on allstarchops.com.

All right. Thank you so much for coming. JC, we love you. Congrats on your twin baby boys. Thank you. All right. Nicole, great job. John, way to hold us down.

We will see everybody next week. Are we going to eat right now? Yeah, man. Oh, hell yeah. We'll get some ceviche, some chicken. We're actually late. We got to go. Oh, okay. We're actually late. We've got to go.