The Compound and Friends - Lil Fibonacci

Episode Date: August 6, 2021

On this week's episode of The Compound & Friends, Michael Batnick, JC Parets, and Downtown Josh Brown discuss: JC's chart throwdown, is Robinhood now a “meme stock,” technical analysis, healthcare stocks, Howard Marks' memo, Knicks and Heat, and more! This episode is brought to you by Polymarket. For a limited time, sign up with referral code “Compound” to get your first trade reimbursed up to $100. Visit https://polymarket.co/CompoundShow to learn more. Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here: https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

By the way, where is that sound effects coming from? Your computer? Yeah. Inside the computer? Inside the machine itself. That's the sound that when JC and I were doing the monthly chart show, that's the sound that accompanied each new chart. People get blown up.

They're like, what the f***? I know. Well, we're going to have you as a regular on this, and we're going to do the chart show with Michael. That's the only... By the way, the reason why you can't do 100 i like that it's supposed to be uh can't do 150 charts right now this is a podcast so it's gonna be boring as f**k i don't know i thought you were serious well that's so here's you've got thousands of charts the visual the charts will be up here

the youtube video is gonna have all the charts we're gonna have to be very descriptive about what's on the charts for the audio. Yeah, what are we looking at? I know you do. Put your headphones on. Yo, can you put my head on Sam Neill's face? You know that scene? Where he says, what's her name?

Ellie. Ellie. And he turns her head to look at the source. Love that movie. So basically, here's the deal. So stock market peaked in February, right? I disagree. I'm sure.

It did. And then it's just been deterioration ever since. Wait, why are you stepping on the content? Why am I stepping on who? The content. What do you mean? I don't want to hear what you're going to say. Yeah, I thought you did.

No. We want to be surprised. All right. It's got to to be surprised. All right. It's got to be orgasmic. All right. Whatever you want, bro. I don't care. Stock market peaked in February.

I can't believe you're coming in here with this malarkey, with the stock market peaked in February malarkey. It's just math, bro. It's not math. It is math. It is not math. Now you're stepping on the content. I can't help it.

I'm fired up. JC is going to do that live for us. JC just told me about this sushi place near us that I never heard of. Sushi Lab. Sushi Lab. It's on the roof of the sanctuary. It's outside? Like outdoors, outdoors?

Like on the roof with a fugazi cover kind of situation. Hold on. What's the sanctuary? Is that the hotel? It's one of those bars that those news corps people used to go to back in the day. Are we getting Cuban beef food? By the way, I wasn't, I've never heard of this restaurant. I just thought it was funny that the name of the restaurant is Dow.

Hold on. Are you yield farming? You never heard of yield farming? How do you pronounce that word? Calle? Calle. Calle. Calle. Why did you say it's his favorite place?

I thought you turned me on to that. Somebody else did, and I don't know any other Cubans. Have you been cheating on me with other Cubans? I have not. I think you have. You're my Cuban. I think you've been cheating on me with other Cubans. So there is a Cuban-Chinese population.

That's like a thing, right? Explain that to me. In the 1800s, there was a big migration. That's why old Cuban people, they love Chinese food. Okay. I never understood where that came from, but I've known in my lifetime. We cook our pigs in a cajachina, which translates into Chinese box. Okay.

So this restaurant, Calle Dao. Calle. I mean. With a C. It's not a G. I'm doing my gringo best. It's Chinese Cuban cuisine. That's what we're getting.

Is that what we're getting? Yeah, dude. I ate there once. Josh, back in the day, there used to be a place called Asia de Cuba. Of course.

Which I think is what you're thinking. I was in the Morgan Hotel. That was, that was the hotspot. In like the late nineties. Early 2000s. That's where you want it to be. So that's gone.

But this place is here. Been gone. Yeah. All right. So we'll walk down there. You still not get the joke about Dow? No. Decentralized organizations.

Oh, sorry. No? Decentralized autonomous organizations. That's why I thought it was funny that you chose that location. No. This place predates that. For sure. That's a good thing, probably.

Absolutely. For sure. All right. Duncan thing, probably. Absolutely, for sure. All right. Duncan, how are you feeling today? I'm feeling good. Yeah? All right. You guys ready? I thought it was appropriate.

Wait, you never met JC? Yeah, I met him in Arizona. Duncan a zillion times. No, I know we were recording a lot together. I didn't know if you guys had ever met in person. Yeah, yeah. Wait, why are those sneakers appropriate? There's the Giants colors. Giants. All together. I didn't know if you guys had ever met in person. Yeah, yeah. Wait, why are those sneakers appropriate? Those are Giants colors.

Are these Knicks colors? Giants. All right. I like it. Wow, with the hurricane socks. I had to. I had to. I look, you know what I felt like?

I felt like, you know, at the beginning of Major League? Of course. So when you guys are like, oh, we're going to talk about Knicks offseason acquisition. They suck again? I look at them like, who the fuck are these guys? They suck again. Not, not. But things have changed.

New shit has come to light. New shit has come to light, man. The Kemba sitch. Oh, he's a huge Lebowski guy, too. Oh, he is? Yeah, I did not know that. I was watching him last night. JC dressed as Walter for Halloween.

No. Subcheck. The dude. Oh, you were the dude? I was the dude. But a friend of yours was Walter? A friend of mine was Walter and another one was. Subcheck? The dude. Oh, you were the dude? That was the dude. But a friend of yours was Walter? A friend of mine was Walter and another one was Donnie. That's amazing. No, that's a

lie. One guy was the Jesus. Oh, yeah. That's the ultimate. I'm surprised you didn't go for that one. I already had the dude outfit. Are we good on the voice? Is that good? If you hear yourself going faint, just get into the mic. That's what the headphones faint, just get into the mic.

That's what the headphones are for. They'll guide you. We don't have to worry about that with JC. JC's not going to get you faint. Your voice travels. If Batnick starts f***ing arguing about when the market's heat, Oh, I'm ready. I'm ready.

Don't even. I'm ready. Dude, don't even get me going. I'll get you going. We're going. Welcome to The Compound and Friends. All opinions expressed by me, Michael Batnick, and our castmates are solely our own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions. Clients of

Ritholtz Wealth Management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. Michael, what is Polymarket? Well, aside from being our sponsor of the show, Polymarket is an information markets platform. And I'm so excited about this because Ben and I spoke about Poly markets. They were in the journal probably a few months ago. So you can bet on any number of events. So for example, if you want to bet on, will Andrew Cuomo be the governor of New York on January 1st, 2022, you can do that. If you want to bet on Britney Spears and her father, will he be removed or resigned from her conservatorship by a certain date?

You can do that. So there's all sorts of bets that you can make on this platform outside of financial markets. Okay, so this is a market. It's an information market, basically. It's a platform that allows you to make a bet on something that's not a security.

Exactly. Okay, this is the one I'm most interested in. Will Kanye West's album, Donda, be released by August 7thth so nas is coming out uh this week i doubt kanye will release on the same day i don't think they have beef with each other so i think that's easy money i'd love to bet no and just pick that money up well put your money where your mouth is okay you know what else is cool they're showing the volume of dollars that are involved in each of these bets so in in the Kanye West example, there's $22,000

right now on that bet. And if I were Kanye West, I would take no and then release on August 8th. Yeah. So you see the volume. All right. Sponsorship aside, I am super, super bullish on platforms like this. I am very, very excited. All right. This is really cool. So where we want to send people, polymarket.com. Just go to polymarket.com. Check this thing out. It's pretty cool. So we are live, recording live. This will not, you will not see or hear this live. You will hear a very lightly edited version,

but this is like a big moment for me. I haven't seen my friend JC Peretz since before COVID, BC. I haven't seen my friend JC Peretz since before COVID BC. And since the pandemic started, a lot has changed in your life. I know you're killing it on the business side. That we'll get into that for sure at All-Star Charts. But like you had a baby during the pandemic. Was that right before or right in the middle? It was in July.

So pretty much right in the heart of things. Okay. Which was nice because I wasn't going anywhere anyway, right? So if you're going to have a baby, it wasn't a bad time to do that. Plus, you want to have a baby when transports are rallying. Let's be honest. Yeah, obviously. It's like your whole thing.

You want those two things to confirm. I thought they were just a dead cat bounce at the time, to be honest. Full disclosure. Me too. So you have a beautiful little girl. I'm so proud of you. I met you when you were 22 years old. Yeah.

So now you're a dad and you've come a long way. 17 years ago. Yeah. Is that how long it is? I don't know. It's amazing that I've stayed in shape all this time. So I think that's pretty cool. All right.

So JC is here. JC is the founder of All Star Charts, which is a research service, but so much more than that. It's a community. It's tools. It's a lifestyle. It's a lifestyle. It's technical analysis.

It's that Fibonacci life that everybody aspires to lead. John's in the house. John's going to do a really great job with charts. And Duncan is here. Duncan, what's going on? Everything's good? Yeah, all good. Good to see JC again. Is that a new hat?

Sundays? It's relatively new, but not too new. What is that from? It's a cafe in Riceville Beach, North Carolina. Okay, very cool. You just come back from there? No, no, no. It's been like months. Okay. I'm losing track of everybody's shit, what everyone has going on in their life. And Michael Batnick's here as always.

So we're going to start this with just a blitz of charts. Is that what we're going to do? We're just going to dive right into the charts? Yeah. I thought we were talking about the Knicks. There's not much to talk about? Stop. There's a lot to talk about.

We're going to do that later. I've updated my thinking on that. So JC's got a chart to throw down for us. I asked you for your top 10, which means you probably sent me 15. Do I have that right? My home, I know. And they say inflation's not going to be an issue. Well, the bond market says it's not an issue. That's one that matters, right?

Fair. All right. What's the first thing we want to get into here? Because I think what you do better than anyone I know is this kind of panoramic, like, let's roll through the most important things that are going on in the market right now. So you're in charge. I'm turning the show over to you. Yeah. So listen, for me, it's all about a weight of the evidence situation. And when people talk about the stock market, it's very easy to be like, oh, Michael, what did the Dow do today? Or what was the news of the day? Or what did the market do this week?

Right? We all do that. Yes. But it's not just the S&P 500. It's not just the Dow Jones Industrial Average or the NASDAQ 100. When we talk about the stock market, there's a lot more to that than a dozen monster companies. There's 3,000 stocks. At least.

There's 3,000 stocks in the Russell 3000. That's right. Exactly. So you really want to weigh the evidence because the average stock, like for example, the average stock in the NASDAQ is down 26%. Right now? Right now. With the index at all is down 26%. Right now? Right now. With the index at all-time highs. Right.

Okay. And then granted, there's a lot of junky stuff in the NASDAQ composite. But even if you look at the NASDAQ 100, which are, I don't know, arguably the best companies in the world. These are all $10 billion and up stocks. Right. At least, right? So the average stock in the NASDAQ 100 is down 10%. The average stock in the New York Stock Exchange Composite is down 17%. So what are you saying?

These are monster corrections that are taking place that if you just focus on, hey, what did the Dow do today? Or where's the S&P? Or what did the NASDAQ do? That doesn't answer the question of how's the stock market. I feel like when I – so I look at this stuff all the time. Especially when stocks are at an all-time high. What's the average stock going to draw down? And it's always like 8% to 12%. This looks a bit extreme, like 16% on the NYSE.

This isn't really a pushback. It's more just an observation. What's interesting is even despite these numbers, the QQEW hit an all-time high today. So it's not just the monster stocks that are working. JC, you're saying the average drawdown of NASDAQ stocks is 28%. But wait, that's a composite. It's not the 100. Correct.

So the 100 is 10. So here's my, like, this would be my question to you. Who gives a shit? Because what are even these stocks? Are these, like, are these SPACs that- It doesn't matter. Why don't you take that out of the equation and just look at the New York Stock Exchange at 17 or just the NASDAQ 100 at 10? The point is, forget if it's 20% or 18%. The bottom line is most stocks are not doing well. Some stocks are doing well,

but most have not been. And Mike and I were talking before, the stock market peaked in February. All right, explain. I completely disagree. That was when things were the best. Okay, fine. That is when, if you want to go over to the New High's list, that is when the New High's list in the NASDAQ peaked. That is when the advanced decline line in the NASDAQ peaked. That is when the IPO index peaked.

That is when emerging markets peaked. All right, but- That was the best things have been. I completely agree. Yeah. So, but that's, what you just said is right, but that doesn't mean the stock market peaked.

Like things, you could say things look better in February, even though the averages are higher. Just saying most stocks peaked. Even though the averages are higher today, things look better in February. I agree with you. Like I said,

most stocks have been struggling. Some stocks are doing well. Do you think February was a healthy market though? I thought it was a circus. Do you remember? The first week of February was the end. It peaked in the second week of February and it's been a deterioration ever since. So I thought what was going on in the markets in February as every stock was making new highs every day was not a healthy, normal market environment. It looked ridiculous. You had IPOs coming out like for a day, opening up a hundred percent. And then the next day going up again, like to me,

I wasn't like excited about the market then. I'm not saying that there's ever like a perfect time in the market, but if that's what a peak looks like, and then the S and P can still continue to go on and make new highs. I'm like happy about that. That was peak enthusiasm. You're right. So SPAC, the IPO, SPAC and IPO both peak in February. And emerging markets and then ASIC advanced the client line. Yeah. So that what you're saying.

The meme stocks like peaked then. It was a stealth parabolic move. Yes. All the things you said were all going parabolic and that was it. And then ever since then, and then what happened was all those growth stocks peaked and they started deteriorating over a few months. And then in May, that's when the cyclicals peaked, industrials, financials, materials, they went on to make one more new high and then they peaked in May. And then ever since

then it's just been deteriorating. But wouldn't you say, wouldn't you say that this market is so healthy that there's so much rotation? It's like when one group starts to lag, the other one takes a baton. And like, this has been one of the most incredible markets I've seen from that point of view. Yeah, 100%. And then if you go look to the,

you guys were making fun of me, of the one with the four charts. So what we're seeing is actually perfectly normal, right? Year two of a cycle is supposed to be a messy environment. This is a money chart. I love this. Yeah, so this is all year twos of cycles over the last 50 years.

So for the podcast, what are we doing? Let me set this up. All right. You're showing 1976, 2004, 1983, and 2010. These are all the second year after the start of a new bull market. Correct. Correct. Okay. So now what you're saying is that year two historically is more of a consolidation than a continuation.

You know why this makes sense? I'm not a big seasonality believer, JC, as you know. But this, to me, makes perfect sense because off the lows you see that giant rip, and then we've got to digest. Right. So to me, that makes total sense. 100%. And it's happening again right now. And then, by the way, to your earlier point,

when you were like, oh, this rotation is healthy. Well, if we look back at history, all of those years, as messy as they were, were springboards to future bullpup. Year three, four, and five were great. I actually think though that, so most people listening don't have the frame of reference to remember the year after 04, 05.

But 2010, like a lot of our listeners traded and invested through that market. Yeah. 2011 sucked. I don't think that's because it was year three. Like I don't, you know, I don't think that that's what we're saying. But it doesn't always work out that year two is a digestion year. And then we're off to the races. Well, let's not also forget.

Let's remember, it was 11, 12, 13, 14. It went on. Same thing in the 80s. Same thing in 05, 06, 07 were great years. Same thing in the late 70s. Right. But the S&P, I'm sorry. I know you don't like this, JC,

but the S&P is up 18% this year. So it is- And it's added a lot of that since when you're saying it topped. It's up about half of what the commodities index is up. Meaning what? But you're saying, wait, you're saying the market topped in February, but the S&P, I think, has added like 11 of those 18%.

Right, but let's remember what the S&P 500 is. Is the S&P 500 the market, or is it a market cap-driven index in the United States of America? So what's the real stock market to you? The New York Stock Exchange composite and the NASDAQ composite? I think you need to look at a lot of things. If you want, Duncan, if you want to pull up the EWG, the Germany and the Europe and emerging markets, if you look globally, there we go.

What's happening here? So we're looking at the FTSE All World X US. So there's the rest of the world outside the US. In the middle, we're looking at Germany. There's a German ETF priced in US dollars. And at the bottom, we're looking at emerging markets. And where is this hot mess of a year taking place at exactly where they peaked 13 years ago? This is not a coincidence. Michael and I have been arguing about this for a decade about how resistance from 10 years ago or 15 years ago shouldn't come in today. Why does it matter? Because there's market memory there. But who has memory of 2008?

Maybe your cousins or your portfolio don't, but real institutions do. Michael. Come on. Are you kidding me? I talk about it every day. If we think the average age of a portfolio manager is somewhere under 40 or somewhere under 50, let's be fair, right? The average age of a portfolio manager is somewhere under 40 or somewhere under 50. Let's be fair, right? The average age of a portfolio manager is under 50. That means 13 years ago, this person was in their mid thirties, probably as an apprentice to another portfolio manager. Those memories are not important to that person. I mean, that institutional memory that you talk about, it still relies on people actually caring about where prices were. And I just don't think they do. Okay. But the market's proving that they do, obviously. Why? Because we paused here. Oh, it's just a coincidence that they all stopped going

up here. Okay. So do we need to take out 13 years worth of overhead supply? Look at the XLF. I didn't bring the chart with me, but look at the XLF. It peaked in 07. It got back to the exact same level in 2015. It got back to the same level in 2019, every single time it broke. And then as soon as it broke out last year, it ripped higher. You think that's a coincidence? It's different stocks, though. So what? So, well, if we're saying that there's memory in stock prices, if the stocks are different, like BlackRock now is so much more important than it was in 07 if it was even publicly traded then.

All of that isn't. Listen, I've been arguing with Barry Ritholtz about this for a decade too. And we keep going. Good luck with that. Well, listen, Barry, shout out Barry, loves to pick a good fight about the stock market. You know, in the old days, back in the day, I would walk into Barry's office

or he'd walk into my office when he wanted to fight. Screaming at each other. Yeah, all good. Here's my thing. So I am a big believer in supply and demand. And I think that matters a ton. But I think the reason a lot of times why supply and demand happens is because people want to get back to even, right? Anchoring buys.

Yeah, so there should be supply when they finally get back to even. And I agree with that. My whole thing is I just don't think that anybody who bought an 07 is still holding. Right. So that's why I'm having trouble thinking that there's price memory there. And it's different. What was it from the Sandlot? You're thinking too much. Just have fun.

All right. Right? All right. So how much of this is because people are waiting to get back to even and that's why sellers show up that price versus enough people believe this. They look at the charts. And when we get to that old level, people just say, it's going to have trouble here at this price.

It couldn't get through it. It's the former, not the latter. You're talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy, which is just not, that's the worst. People must throw that at you all the time. Not anymore, because they know that I have good answers for it. You may have not read those answers,

but the bottom line is we all have different objectives. We all have different time horizons. We all look at the data and then make different decisions based on our own personal time. The whole self-fulfilling prophecy is nonsense. The bottom line is there's an overwhelming amount of supply relative to demand at those prices in those indexes, period. And until the demand is able to absorb that supply, prices cannot progress. So just from your read of this, does it appear to you that there's enough bullish enthusiasm at these levels to eat up the rest of that supply? The more times that a level is tested, the higher the likelihood that it breaks. Why?

Because at a certain point, anybody willing to sell at those prices will have already sold. And that's when the demand exceeds that supply and then prices can move on. That just hasn't happened yet. It happened in financials. If you look at the XLF, it took 13, 14 years and it did. If you look at the Euro, the Euro stock 600, you look at all those European index bumping up against those highs going back to 2000 and then it finally broke out. You look at gold, you think gold just stopped going up last August at the same price that it stopped going up in 2011. So I would actually say, if you're going to convince me that the market has memory in anything,

I would say it would be in gold. Yeah, because those people don't sell. They don't sell. They don't sell. Gold, Bitcoin, copper, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon. We could do this all day. It's price. It's supply and demand. It's human emotion. Maybe cryptocurrencies didn't exist 100 years ago, but the charts look exactly the same as the charts that you're going to see in the Edwards and McGee book. Because it's still people. It's still people.

So that's what drew me to technical analysis. One of the first books that I read was Steve Nisan. How do you pronounce his last name? Nisan. His Japanese candlestick book. And it makes so much sense that the market is, could be the fish market or the stock market. It's supply and demand. Right. Of course. Like anything else.

Alright, what else you got? So, the bottom line is most stocks have not been doing well since February. Some stocks have. I think you have it backwards. Sorry, I'm not trying to be a dick. But you are. No, but the equal weight NASDAQ and S&P equal weight are both at an all-time high.

So? So most stocks are doing well. Some aren't. By the way, the equal weight S&P 500 index peaked in May with all those others and is essentially flat since then. It might be up a little bit. It's up a little bit. But it's essentially flat since then. It might be up a little bit. It's up a little bit. But it's essentially flat since then. The NASDAQ 100, equally weighted, is still the 100 biggest components,

and the average drawdown of those particular components are down 10%. Listen, trust me. We've done the math. Most stocks are not going up. Some stocks are. So if you want to pull up the 2 to 100- What if I say who cares because the only stocks that matter are? Yeah, some stocks are more important.

That matter to you. No, that matter to what the averages do. Okay, so if you are- I didn't- Wait, wait, wait. I didn't appoint the top six stocks to be 40% of the NASDAQ. They just are. That's not because I said that matters.

That's just- So what is that? NASDAQ composite. You got side charts? All time high. Right. So in other words, it's not because I think Microsoft and Apple

are the most important. It's the market has decided. And I mean, this is price. And to be clear, the S&P 500 is the greatest momentum strategy ever. It buys more of the best ones and kicks out the worst ones. There's nothing wrong with that.

And if that's the type of investor you are, we're just going to own the indexes and call it a day. That's terrific. But you're going to have pockets. Like for example, when the market, when the index is peaked in September, they underperformed the average stock for the next six months.

So it goes in ebbs and flows. If somebody says to you, how'd the market do this year so far? What's your answer? It's not 18%? No. Okay. I say the market's been struggling

for the majority of the year up 18 but struggling the s&p 500 you're cherry you're i mean talk about we're in new york we're in new york i know your home country bias is like oozing out of people are asking they don't give a shit they don't give a shit how spain is doing people like people on the street i don't mean professionals like your boy from college calls you up and he's like, hey, what's been going on with the market this year? He's not saying S&P 500, but that's what he means. They're like, yo, you see this pod stock? You see this doge?

Are you in the doge, bro? All right. So one of your boy's dads. I'm trying to get you to just say when people ask how's the market doing, they don't want to hear about the fucking MSCI XUS. They want to know about the Dow. They want to know about the Dow. The Dow and maybe the S&P. Yeah, you're right.

And you won't just give them markets, U.S. markets up to 15% this year. Am I the type of person? You guys have known me for a long time. Am I the kind of person to just tell people what they want to hear, or am I going to tell it like it is? JC says, somebody's like, how did the market do this year? J.C. says, in dollars or what? Why don't you have a seat?

How much time you got, bro? All right, what are we looking at? What's this 2 to 100 club? So speaking of- I love this. Speaking of- You don't know about this? No.

Okay. This is super dope. This might be our sexiest scan. And we got some pretty sexy stuff. So this was inspired by our boy, Linzen. And he's like, yo, JC, we got to find the next $100 billion stocks. I was like, hell yeah, we do. How do we do that?

Right? So we ran a scan. So what we did was we're looking for companies that are graduating from small cap into mid cap status. Right? My whole career, I've always heard that the best winners, like you talk to the old timers, they come from midcaps, right? So, but my whole- How do we beat the midcap? Well, no, the problem is, is that the midcaps are two to 10 billion. But the truth is that sweet, what happened to midcap inflation? We've got trillion dollar companies. Why can't we?

So for me, midcaps are up to like 30, 35 billion. I think we could probably all agree with that, right? 10 billion is a large cap. The new threshold to make the S&P based on the additions this year is about like 16, 17 billion. Sounds right. The last raft of companies.

It's actually lower than I would have thought, but sure. Yes. So anyway, the whole point is the reason that mid-caps are so great is because you could buy it at five billion it could double it could double again it could double again and it's still not that big okay that's why huge winners come out of mid-caps so if we're looking for the next hundred billion dollar companies we're looking for between 2 and 35 billion okay that's that sweet spot because you can still catch a three bagger before it gets into 100 billion

so what else what else what else has to go into that screen? So not all types of industry groups can scale like that. Like you're not going to find utilities in there, right? You're not going to find that many staples in there, right? So think about your logical names, cloud computing, solar, semis, internet, DTC, biotech, right? So those are the kinds of names. So we, we scan by industry group.

I think there's 14 industry groups. And then we sort by new 52-week high. So we're literally finding the best stocks in that sweet spot. And then here's the thing. Like any idiot can build a scan like this, you know, unusual options activity bullshit, right? Anybody could do that. But the real magic is then going in and looking at the list and hence selecting the best opportunities, which is where the magic comes in and we do that. The robots do the easy part. Okay. Look at Asana. That's a chart. Right?

Exactly. How often do names come and go on this? How many names are on here? And how often do you pull names out and add new ones? Yeah, so we run the scan every other Wednesday. So that's about right. It's probably too frequently, but we really like the scan. You want to buy the things that have been on here the longest? No, not necessarily. Actually, what we end up seeing a lot of times is that we buy the stocks on breakouts, for example. They hit our targets, they reset, and they show up again, and we buy them again.

Okay, so there's an art to this. This is not just, okay, here's a screen, buy them, then you're going the next level and you're actually looking at these charts individually. When somebody asks JC how the stock market's doing, he shows them these charts. No, you guys show them these charts. That's what you guys do.

These charts look amazing. You're like, oh, the market's great. These charts look amazing. Well, by definition, this is what we're looking for. All right, so Rockwell Automation is the number three name on here. Are these in any kind of order or no? They're sorted by new highs.

Now, these have to be within a certain threshold of new highs to stay on the list? Our list is much longer than this. Okay. This is just what we publish. I think it's top 20, top 30 sometimes, depending on the situation. But what we're looking for is essentially all we're doing is creating a universe. What we're doing here is not like rocket science we're doing is creating a universe. What we're doing here is not like, you know, rocket science. Yeah. You know, we're just creating a universe. Just the stocks that line up with the characteristics of potential big winners.

And then you want to look at them individually. That's exactly right. We want to make it really, really hard for us to miss them. How popular is this? Like out of all the things that you, you offer to people, how popular is this sounds like a big hedge fund like a like a hedge fund uh type of list because they're looking for three and four baggers popular internally but you'd be surprised like our young aristocrats list that looks for hot you know companies that keep raising their dividends every year that's a hot one yeah that's my rap name young aristocrat dude young aristocrat that's dope right Young Aristocrat. Dude, Young Aristocrat. That's dope, right? Lil Aristocrat. The future Aristocrat. Lil.

Lil Aristocrat. I like that. Lil Aristocrat. I like that. All right. So what's the big takeaway from what's been going on the list lately? Are you seeing a lot of one particular sector? Two things.

No matter how bad the market is, there's always going to be good ones popping up here. I love that. Like, for example, we ran this scan in the beginning of March the 10th of last year. Okay. And I'm just going to send you the list because it's hilarious. It's like all the greatest winners ever, because here's what's going on. There are, because we're sorting by proximity to new highs, you're seeing where the relative strength is, which once the selling pressure gives up, those are going to be the leaders. Number one. That's a FOMOism. It's true though. So you want to look for these things. So you want to look at these things right as the market is correcting to see which ones are hanging in there. Even if

the market's going up, it doesn't matter, right? We want to look for that relative strength because it has that buoyancy. In the case of last March, when the market's getting slaughtered and these stocks are making new highs, Activision, Zoom, DocuSign, Regeneron, I mean, it's hilarious the names on the list, right? It's like, well, in hindsight, it's like, well, what a great list that was. But in real time, it was like, ooh, man, do we really need to be buying this? But the bottom line is it shows us, number one, who's leading. And number two, when the market's getting slaughtered and you're seeing accumulation and there's just overall distribution in the market, that means that institutions are taking that supply to accumulate. So like, I don't know how often you guys talk to like actual traders at buy side institutions,

whose job it is to like accumulate Exxon for their mutual fund that they work for. But like when the days are getting slaughtered, he's support, You know, he's the one sitting there buying. They're taking that supply to be able to buy. You know, when we talk about like DeMarc, you know, we all roll our eyes at Mark. Oh, one, two, three, nine. Like, I don't understand it. But when you are an institution. Tom DeMarc, the count.

Fine. But the point is when you have $500 billion, you need to find where that liquidity is. And you need to find where that exhaustion is and you need to find where that exhaustion is. And the supply and demand is going to come in because you have to accumulate so many shares for my Robinhood account. Like that's not necessary. If you're an institution, you have a target waiting to certain stocks in a sector and you're out there buying. You need liquidity. Right. Or selling depending. Right. Right. Right. Absolutely. Okay. What else on the chart side? Right. Right. Right. Absolutely. OK, what else on the chart side?

So why don't you show the the gap and go in snap? Wait, the gap and gap and go, gap and go. All right. Right. So gap and go, you know, Edwards and McGee in the 1940s would call this a breakaway gap. Right. But what I really like is when they gap above former resistance, where you wake up one day, boom, all that supply was taken care of while you were sleeping. That's as bullish it gets because your stop is the low of that period. What's the end goal, meaning they never come into the gap? Right. So people are like, oh, all gaps get filled.

Well, breakaway gaps, by definition, don't, and exhaustion gaps, by definition, too. But you don't know that this is a breakaway gap in real time. It looks like it on day one. Right. It's always a potential potential breakaway gap that's why your stop is the lowest but by now you could basically say this is a breakaway gap or never you can never truly say that well we know that now because it tripled or something so yes it was but now if you go to the next one i predict this gap will get filled in 2040 maybe right price has memory you never know stick around long enough you'll see all gaps filled oh fibonacci here we go right so then here here's your extension and then wait

wait before we get into let's just we just set the groundwork for fibonacci what is fibonacci retracements what are we looking at it's a pizza place in midtown what are we looking at here tell us what fibonacci should be it should be. So Leonardo Fibonacci, the Pisa, was a gentleman in the 1300s, mathematician from Italy. You may have heard of him. You know, the Italians love to take- Super famous.

So famous. He was like the Kardashians of their day. So, you know, but it was actually Pingala in India in 200 BC. They came up with the same math solution for two completely different problems. So Fibonacci, the Italians like to take the credit but the indians actually discovered it but to fibonacci's credit he didn't just copy pingala he came up with the same conclusion and the math is what

not like this specifics like what are we what is it showing so it's you see it all throughout nature it's a ratio it's a ratio you see it's the length of our fingers the length of our bodies you see it in our dna you see it in weather patterns like it's a it's a ratio. It's a ratio. You see, it's the length of our fingers, the length of our bodies. You see it in our DNA. You see it in weather patterns. Like it's a, it's a natural phenomenon that we continue to see again and again. And again, I get asked constantly, JC, why does Fibonacci work? I don't know why I don't. My final answer is that I don't think that humans currently, I don't think we're smart enough to really understand why. I think maybe one day we will. But the bottom line, I look at 5,000 charts a week. Trust me, I wouldn't be wasting my time on those 5,000 charts. Okay, so technicians use this Fibonacci ratio to get a sense of where a rally might stop or how much potential there is in a sell-off. And they extrapolate these Fibonacci levels from the current price.

And that's how it's used in your discipline. There are levels of interest, to quote Brian Shannon. Potential support. Potential support, right? Levels of interest. But then here's the thing, though. Is there a possibility that there's some confirmation bias happening where you only remember the charts where the Fibonacci extension proved prescient

and you forget about all the times where it just wasn't relevant. No, it's actually the opposite because if the market ignores- Of course it is. No, because seriously, if the market ignores those Fibonacci levels- Let us go.

No, Josh. Actually, what you just said is the complete opposite. Well, here's why you're an asshole. All right. I'm listening. I'm listening. I'm listening.

Go. If the shoe fits. Okay. If the market is ignoring those levels, that is information. Okay. Right? So it's not like, oh, we throw it away. If the market just, because what happens a lot of times, these extension levels, if the

market rips right through it on corrections, it turns into support. Right? So it might not be resistance on the way up it could be support on the way down so how do you know what to start and stop like where's the zero where's the 100 peaks and peaks and troughs okay so we took the peak in snapchat we take the bottom in snapchat at the end of 2018 we broke out of those levels right at the end of last year we extended to the first level around 44 and a half we consolidated for a few weeks i mean we broke out this is undeniable on this particular this is a good one i mean i got 4 000 other ones i can show you to do the same shit if you really want time let's go all right i got nowhere to go bro so so then the next target was 69 it consolidated there as

you can obviously see right right and now we just broke out again. So 70 bucks is your stop, 69-ish. If we're above that, you stay long. Next target is above 110. Because Josh, right? If it goes to 100, it's going to 110, baby. So Jason, you've been doing this forever. So you look at price, you look at Fibonacci's. Are there any new, is there any new information

that you've incorporated into your analysis as the market has changed? Well, we're going there later. Oh, I'm going there. You're going to go there now? Okay. I've always wondered that. Because you speak with a lot of conviction about your process, but there must be some elements of your process that you've had to change your mind about or adapt as markets have changed.

I know it's still human beings in the end, and it's still buying and selling fear and greed. I get that. But like things really do change. Yeah. And we have to all change whatever we do to account for the fact that the world is different. But here's the difference. See,

I have come to terms with the fact that I don't know what's going to happen next. Right. I don't. Okay. Some people think they do. Some people are. So I speak with confidence.

So you have conviction in the process more so than the outcomes? I have conviction that I know that I do more work than anybody else does. Right. And I have an army of guys that are helping me do this work. So I'm confident in that. I mean, I could draw all these charts. We don't even need to. Give me a marker.

I could draw for you. Is there anything that used to work really well that stopped or anything? Go ahead. Right. So my point is that because I've come to terms with the fact that I don't know what's going to happen next, the best part of that is that nobody else does either. Carl Icahn, Warren Buffett, it's a level playing field. Yeah, I agree with that. People are like, oh, these guys have more information.

It's a level playing field. In fact, the retail investor has a much bigger advantage to the institutions because they can be more nimble. They don't have to manage a trillion dollars. They also don't have to explain why they're doing something different from what they used to do. And Buffett and Munger talk about missing out on Amazon

because it just was not a quote Warren Buffett stock. Right. And they just couldn't buy it. Now they own it. We could change our mind in public, like not in public. We could change our mind to ourselves. It's hard for, yeah.

If you, especially if you're somebody that's like repeatedly talking about your process, there are books, the Warren Buffett way. Yeah. He almost couldn't go out and buy Amazon. So like, that's a good example of like a retail investor has nobody to explain anything to. But an example of the market changing

and nobody says you have to trade YOLO meme stocks, but like, would you incorporate technical analysis into that? Or would you just say, this is dumb, I don't want to play? The meme stocks came up on our scans, actually, because we have another scan called the Under the Hood Report, where we're looking for unusual increases in investor interest. These could be spikes in social media mentions, volume, insider transactions. For whatever reason, there are more lunatics now paying attention to – you know what inspired this? Remember the Robin tracks?

Remember that? That scan inspired this scan. And then they took that away. Right. And then we built a better one. Okay. And we don't just give it away for free. You're looking for eruptions in-

Interest. Interest in a stock. And then obviously having short interest involved there is like a big part of it. Well, that's another scan, right? So those are the short squeeze lists where we're looking- Scans on scans on scans. But JC, this is a great example. Think about it.

We do all this top-down work, right? And we get a lot of credit for like doing nice global macro work. But what we do is we supplement all that top-down work with all these bottoms-up scans, the 2-to-100 club, the aristocrats, the little aristocrats. We might change names. Speaking of adapting. Wouldn't you say this is a great example of you adapting is all of these new screens? You weren't doing this in the 2000s because these didn't exist, the social media stuff. We just want to make it a green, 100%.

We get new data like you you're charting you're charting things that didn't exist two years ago and we have now we have like the on chain analysis you want to talk about adapting you have one of those with you right you have a cardano chart i do have a cardano chart yeah 100 so throw that up this is an example of something where you've had to incorporate new information throw the ada so i'm waiting for this guy to get above 140 and then i'm yoloing the shit out of it right wait what what's going on with cardano so you don't care about the white paper you don't care about like the whales you're just looking purely at price there's nothing else really here yes and no i don't care about like the whales. You're just looking purely at price. There's nothing else really here.

Yes and no. I don't care about the white papers. I do care about the whales. You care about what they're doing, not the interviews they're giving. We get the whale transactions. Right. You don't care about like the interviews they're giving. You care about what their impact is on the price of the thing.

Yeah, because we get the on-chain analytics where we can see what the whales are doing with their wallets. So I don't even know what on-chain analytics means. I'll let you explain that. No, it's very simple. I would just say, though, that like your approach to crypto, to me, is more intellectually honest than almost everything I come across. Like crypto more so than the stock market lends itself to like piles and piles of complete and total fantasy.

Yeah. Like just absolute bullshit. Of course. Whereas you're like, all right, let's assume that the market is smart and they're selecting the tokens usually that matter and we'll leave out Dogecoin for today. The Doge was showing relative strength at the time.

There was leadership there. But what you're seeing is basically this thing in May of 17 or whenever that is, June of 17 peaked. December. December. Oh, with the rest of the crypto market. Right, yeah. Okay, and then it spent, I guess,

three years in the wilderness, right? That's a 90 plus percent decline, right? My God. Well, they all did. It's also a made up asset that has no actual value. So that 90% decline makes sense. Right. I'm pretty sure it's worth like 30 billion.

Right. So by no value. Well, now it decline makes sense. Right. I'm pretty sure it's worth like $30 billion. Right. So by no value. Well, now it's worth $30 billion. All right. It's worth $30 billion. I'd argue that's a long stretch from no value. It's not quite a market cap. I know we always say market cap.

It is a market cap. But it's not a company. Nobody says it is. Right. So it's not really – you wouldn't call the amount of money in a commodity a market cap, would you? You would. Of course.

You would? Yeah. And bonds too. Bonds are 110 trillion. So that's an asset. Gold, I think it's 12 trillion. Okay. All right.

So maybe you would. All right. Fine. So what's going on here? It struggled as it broke above that prior level, but it's not backing down either. It's struggling at former overhead supply, right? Where there's more supply than demand. At the same place it peaked at the end of 2017. Okay. So it's absorbing that supply. And I think

if we're above 140, here's a close look, right? So here's a zoomed in look. So it tried to break out, failed, and now it's just hovering underneath that 140 level. So this is where the extensions come into play. Yeah. Because what you're saying is this is the level where this thing has convincingly broken out. And that's when you want to get long. A buck 40. So if we're not above buck 40, I think you leave it alone, but a buck 40, I'm all in. Yeah. So that's another interesting thing about the way that you look at the markets. A lot of people were trained as investors. And so they would say, well, if I like Cardano

fundamentally and it goes from a dollar to 80 cents, then in theory, I should be even more bullish at 80 cents. Whereas you're just like, I don't want to own this under a dollar. I can't believe it took us 40 minutes to get to this. No, but what's hilarious is that there are no fundamentals in crypto. There are no earnings.

There's no cashflow. It's not even a goddamn company to your earlier point. Right? Like it's just nothing, right? Whatever it is, it doesn't matter what it is. It could be silver. It could be silver. It could be platinum. It doesn't actually matter.

The bottom line is there's an overwhelming amount of supply relative to demand right around $1.40. And if we're not above that, then that's the market signaling to us that demand has yet to absorb that. And then once we break out, I'm in. In the meantime, I'm not going anywhere. I got all the time in the world, baby. I'm chilling. Remember when they tried to meme silver? Yes, I'm in. In the meantime, I'm not going anywhere. I got all the time in the world, baby. I'm chilling. Remember when they tried to meme silver? Yes.

I do remember. That was amazing. They thought that they could literally move the price of one of the oldest global commodities by pushing up an ETF. Yeah. That didn't work. On a message board. That one didn't go.

Yet. That one didn't go well. Yet. All right. So let's pivot because I wanted to get to this, a lot of stuff today. Is Robinhood now a meme stock? And if so, and you want to be involved in it as an investor or a trader, does that change the way you have to interact with this thing?

Hang on, JC, before we get your answer. It was up 50% yesterday and it was down 28% today. So the answer is yes. That makes perfect. Well, it doesn't have short interest though. Is that the definition of a meme perfect. Well, it doesn't have short interest, though. Is that the definition of a meme stock? No, it's not. So the fundamental difference between Robinhood and the others is that there's no short interest yet.

Options started trading today, yesterday. So, like, we haven't had time for there to be a 20% or more short interest. But wouldn't we all agree that there's sort of like a social short interest? Like there's just so much hate. Yes. Almost like. That's a good one. That's a good one.

What do you agree with that? I said on TV today and like this went over everyone's head. This is the most meta stock I've ever seen in my life. Meta like, remember the movie Birdman with Michael Keaton? Yeah, it was a good movie. It's a movie about a washed-up actor who played a superhero trying to get his acting career back in the theater. And what makes it meta is that Michael Keaton literally is like a washed-up actor who played Batman.

Dude, he was Batman. And he ended up winning an Oscar, I think, for this. That was a great flick. Morgan hates it. It's like, that movie is so stupid. It's not a good movie. Who didn't enjoy it? I thought it was a great movie.

I loved it. He's great in it. It was a film. is so stupid. It's not a good movie. It's not a good movie. I thought it was a great movie. I loved that movie. It's a great film. It was a film. It was good. You really liked it? It's not satisfying though. It feels pointless when it ends. I mean, just to me. You're not alone in that assessment. Who was the mother of dragons? What was her name? Like her

actress name? Khaleesi. Khaleesi. So Robin Hood is like the Khaleesi. It's like the mother of meme stocks and it became a meme stock. Well, right. So the meta aspect Robinhood is like the Callisi. It's like the mother of meme stocks. And it became a meme stock. Well, right. So the meta aspect of it is fascinating to me. Because basically, this is the platform that people use to recklessly speculate in stocks. And now they can recklessly speculate in the platform stock itself, right? Like you don't even have to waste time trading the things on Robinhood.

You could just trade Robinhood. We've come full circle. Why are we just grouping all investors as reckless traders? Robinhood, YOLO people. We're not grouping all investors. We're saying that the popularity of Robinhood is fueled by YOLO. Well, because listen, if you think so, JC, the average account balance on Robinhood is $4,000. What else are you going to do with $4,000 but YOLO? You're not going to do long-term investing with four grand.000. Like, you're going to trade. Yeah.

Okay. So, all right. I think we could agree the user base on Robinhood is very different than the user base on Vanguard. I don't even think that's fair. Can we agree on one thing today? Can you buy Vanguard funds through Robinhood? Is that a thing? You get kicked off.

Deletes your account. Right. Yeah, delete your account. So, I guess the question is like, if you know, this is a meme stock or on its way to becoming one, does that change how you would look at charts of it? I don't know. I don't know. I mean, I don't know what, I don't know what the definition of a meme stock is, but when I think meme stocks, I think. High retail interest. Hold on. Hold on. I think GameStop and I think AMC. So I think two companies that clearly are, you know, just not companies that we consider to be good companies.

I'm not like Mr. Fundamental guy, but I think we can all agree that no one's going to go to a GameStop. Both of them were effectively bankrupt. Okay, but Robinhood is not that. Robinhood is actually a good company that is growing across the board. Raising tons of money easily. Raising tons of money. It's not those other two you like the fundamentals i would argue that stock i would i would i think more people are using that company than the other no that's a good point that's a very good point

well it is a good point and that i don't think most of the traders get into like um like uh the fundamentals on any of them anyway. Nor should they. But you're talking about companies that were almost bankrupt versus like Robinhood is in its prime right now. Furthest thing from bankruptcy. Furthest thing from. Yeah, they're killing it. But what it has in common is it's got a limited float. Why do people hate Robinhood so much out of curiosity?

Because a lot of dumb people got rich trading on Robinhood and it's offensive to their intelligence. No, that's certainly one. That's why people are upset. It's insulting to people's intelligence. People just hate themselves, not the company. There's another part of the story.

I guess. The other part of the story is that Robinhood began as democratizing finance for all, which I believe. I really believe that they meant that. And it turned into

something different. It turned into payment for order flow. I'm not hating. I'm just saying that's why people are pissed. They also broke a whole bunch of rules and didn't pay any price for it.

It looks like hypocrisy. But they also- Didn't Uber break a whole bunch of rules when they were doing it? It's the same as Uber. It's the FinTech version of Uber. They basically said, where is the line? Okay. LOL. We're going 10 steps over that line and we're going to get so big that the fines will be a joke two years after the fact. And, dude, people hate everything. I mean, let's be honest. People are just angry.

People hate everything. That's fair. Who has a high approval rating on the internet? Nobody. Honestly, like very – like in the financial world, nobody. If you tweet, I like Jack Bogle, you're going to get – like people are going to destroy Jack Bogle. Like the people that agree with you and like him will be silent, so you won't win any points.

Right. But the 10 people that, like in a very twisted sense, think that Jack Bogle is their enemy, the ghost of Jack Bogle. Actually, it's The Rock. That's the only person that people like. Oh, I bet you that won't last. I have two rookie cards of The Rock when he was still at the University of Miami, and they're mint 10s.

Football cards. Those are definitely worth a lot. If he becomes president, I think I'm done. I think I'm good. You could bet on that. I'm poly market plug, plug.

Oh, you can, you can, uh, can we do healthcare stocks? I kind of threw this in here. I, I,

in a very amateurish way, look at charts, not the way that you do. Um, not with as much insight. Ooh, Pfizer. I think these look like the new leadership group.

Ooh, Eli Lilly. And maybe that won't last. Have you been looking at these things? No. I mean, nobody is. Hang on. Moderna is the one that everybody's focused on, which also looks great. By the way, do you realize?

Oh, hold on. We're coming full circle here. We talked about mid-caps. Do you realize when Moderna first came on our list, this was last April. It was a mid cap. And now it's one of the largest 100 companies in America. I feel like I've been saying to you. It's so big now. I've been saying to you for the last few weeks, like XLV is quietly making all time highs.

Well, Michael, actually, I outsource most of my charting to Michael. But yes, you have been to your credit. Bristol Myers, I own personally. Pfizer looks incredible. Pfizer is still stuck below. I don't know why I've been getting- J&J is a big technician stock. J&J is breaking out as we see.

You got to love that, Regeneron. I think Krinsky wrote on J&J the other day. Regeneron, J&J. But the problem with Pfizer is that we're still below that overhead supply from 15, 16 years ago. Regeneron. Yeah. I feel like there's a lot of pharmaceutical and biotech charts that look amazing. The problem, biotechs in general, also peaked in February, by the way.

A lot of things peaked in February. Biotechs have been the underperformer out of the healthcare group, but let's remember something. And I think this gets lost. Within healthcare as a sector, you have a ton of industry groups. Pharma, medical equipment, managed health.

Diagnostics. You've got a ton of stuff. The medical equipment stocks life sciences xbi yeah pretty weak exactly look at this monster look at ibb why that's a huge now tell me why that's large cap versus small cap yeah xbi is equally weighted right yeah and ibb is cap weighted right so it goes back to our original point that most stocks have not been working some stocks are particularly these large ones. The bigger, the better.

We also, this year, have had a record in biotech IPOs. Really? Yeah. And so there's a lot of supply, new supply being created that would pull down things like the equal weight biotech index. Oh, that's a great point. So, JC, speaking of new issuance, how much price history do you need before you could start doing technical analysis? Like if a company IPOs. No, for real.

If a company. One minute. Dude, he did a sick, he did a sick post this weekend. How to technically look at an IPO. Oh, did you? Explain. So what happened? You should check out my blog.

What happened? Allstarcharts.com. That's such a Ritholtzism. We look at charts. It's fantastic. It's lovely. So what we're looking at is essentially, right? So like like look at facebook right facebook ipo'd and then it got crushed so if you just waited waited waited till it broke out above the ipo price there was your buy

and the rest is history you know but you're stuck underneath that overhead right twitter right has been stuck after that initial thrust um when you look at uh we just looked at snapchat how fast when robinhood got above 40, it was 60 in two seconds. Well, it reminds me a lot of Google, right? When Google, right? So the idea is I was taught early in my career that the pre-IPO period is the base

and the IPO is the breakout. So he's thinking about the day it comes public as either the breakout or the breakdown. Or the case of Coinbase. It's still resistance. Yeah. Yeah. But if we're looking at daily candles, how much time do you need? Well, wait, but wait, I would also say though, as either the breakout or the breakdown. Or the case of Coinbase. It's still resistance. Yeah. Yeah.

But if we're looking at daily candles, how much time do you need? Well, wait. Go ahead. I would also say, though, this idea that price has memory, nothing has more memory for the people involved in a stock than the price at which it came public.

Yeah. Because everybody's- That's powerful. Because everyone's anchored to the same price. The entire shareholder base is anchored to day one. That's a good one. The anchoring bias is strong with this one. I said something good, right? That's a good one. The anchoring bias is strong with this one. I said something good, right?

That's a good one. I agree with that, Josh. And JC agrees. Hold on. I don't want to finish this conversation without talking about the real bull market,

which is not in stocks. It's in commodities. That's the real bull market. So if you want to underperform, clearly the stock market has been the place to do that. Right? The commodities market

is crushing it. The CR commodities market is crushing it. The CRB index is crushing it. I feel like that's very transitory. Base metals. I still don't know what that word means. I keep hearing that word. Don't get stuck there. I can't even spell transitory.

What are base metals? Don't get stuck in base metals, Mike. Aluminum, tin, copper, lead, iron ore, zinc. Supply is on the way. How come precious metals suck? Copper, lead, iron ore, zinc. Supply is on the way. How come precious metals suck? Because there is an overwhelming amount of supply of them versus the demand for them. More sellers than buyers.

Gold is the biggest piece of shit I've ever seen, by the way. I meant to get into this with you, and we don't have time for it today. I didn't bring it. Do you know that gold, the GLD fund, is worth the least amount that it has ever been relative to the NASDAQ 100 in history? If you would have laid out a scenario in which gold would work, tell me it wouldn't have been the last two years. Well, gold prior did work. Remember, but it got back to those 2011 highs. Yes. And there was still resistance there from a decade earlier.

Imagine you built your whole career screaming that the Fed was imminently about to cause inflation and gold was the answer. And then you actually got this massive inflation spike and gold like literally lost your money. Well, first of all, there are those people. Yes, I know. And you laugh at them. How do they get out of bed in the morning? It's embarrassing. Like they're being embarrassed by the price of this metal on a daily basis.

Well, some people are just more interested in feeding their ego than they are about making money. And that's a real thing. That's crazy. That's crazy. It's up to us as investors to take their donations. It's our job. Is that wrong?

We don't spend a lot of time on this. I found something that you and Howard Marks agree on. So Howard Marks is like the ultimate fundamental investor. Probably- Distressed debt. Probably looks at charts, but would never say that he does. I'm familiar. Okay.

This is his new memo today. Regular readers of my memos know Oak Tree and I approach macro forecasts with a high degree of skepticism. In fact, one of the six tenets of Oak Tree's philosophy states flatly, we don't base our investment decisions on macro. Oaktree doesn't employ any economists, and we rarely invite them to our offices to share their views. And then there's like 900 other words. But the gist is don't invite economists onto the trading desk if you can help it.

Warren Buffett said any company that employs an economist has one employee too many. Did he really? That was Warren Buffett,, any company that employs an economist has one employee too many. Did he really? That was Warren Buffett, not JC, not Batnick or Redhall. Peter Lynch said, if you spend 15 minutes thinking about the economy, you wasted 13 minutes. You know, it's interesting.

But what does that have to do with commodities? I think the economy trips up regular people in investing more than anything. Like people's personal views on the economy. Oh, I totally agree. Mys Like people's view, personal views on the economy, myself included people's personal views in the economy and how they should be positioned. The heart of the pandemic was the greatest buying opportunity that we have seen in,

I mean, it was the best 52 week return or something. In fairness, most people knew it and bought it like that, that bear market lasted like two weeks. Like I've had vacations that last long. I think you are, I think you run in certain circles that most people don't run in because I don't run at all.

Let's get this. First of all, first of all, but second of all, we had the sentiment data was pretty brutal, bro. But we had, we had a mass opening of brokerage accounts by retail, and they fucking bought that dip. I know we'll never know. How much was Portnoy responsible for that? He was definitely some of the fuel. Very responsible.

And he made people a lot of money. People that listened to him did way better than listening to Bill Ackman. Like, hell is coming. I think that the whole retail, you know, Reddit situation, like, is blown so out of proportion. I know. You personally benefited from it. Hold on. Just off the top of my head, I know personally half a dozen hedge funds that have dedicated employees that are on Reddit. So this whole Reddit thing is not like a retail thing.

No, it's not a revolution. They can't ignore it. They can't ignore it. They can't ignore it because if they're talking about their stocks, that's another information input that they want.

Come on. You benefited though from like all of this new interest in the market among young people because they don't know where to begin. And then they discover, oh, there's this thing

called technical analysis. And I remember when you discovered technical analysis, it was for much the same reason. We were getting blown up in stocks and we really had no clue why i remember going to jobs we were standing we were on 45th uh 45th street and we were walking east helmsley building uh on the other side right in between met life right and i remember being like we were walking like to lunch or something and i'm like josh i'm thinking about studying for the cmt he's

like oh yeah all right so where are we gonna go at happy hour it was kind of like it was like that became your career though totally you and i you and i then were slinging stocks and making up stories and we really didn't know what's going on all these new investors i wouldn't say i personally benefited from them because by the time people get to us they've already been in the market for a while like we're not in the business of like introducing new people. Like we built a course and stuff like that because Investopedia paid me to do it. But like, we're not like, hey, you should start trading and financial freedom and all this bullshit. Right. Like I'm not one of them. By the time you get to me, chances are you're probably older than I am, you know, and you've been doing this for a couple of decades

and you're like, I need some, you know, I need help with price analysis. I need a framework to understand the market because I'm basically randomly trading things. Right. I don't want to go into the market and navigate this market by myself. I want JC's team of 30 animals all over the world, you know, guiding me. Right. Right. That's really why they come to us. But it takes time for them to get to us. You know, you go to the penny stock guy and then you go to the, and you're like, none of this shit works. I think we're, I think we're in a similar situation that people find whatever. And then eventually they're like, all right, I need help. Yeah.

Yeah. Or also in our case though, people's lives get more complex. They don't really need us when they're, I mean, they could, they could work with us on liftoff, which is our automated asset management program. But most people, when they come to us, it's because something in their life just happened that prompted them to say, okay, I no longer want to do this alone. I need somebody's help. So in your case, I feel like people blow themselves up by trading what they see on TV or what they read about on the message board enough times. And they say, I need, I need a framework to understand this. And then you, you're not just giving people fish all day. You're

teaching them to fish. You're not giving, you're not giving stock picks, right? You're providing a framework for how to view the market. So with, with all of our, you know, commodities are in a super cycle. Base metals are leading, steel's leading. At the end of the day, there's a steel stock there to buy in Luxembourg. Yeah, but the but is you're not going to be pitching a stock and it's disappearing. You're saying we like the stock if or so long as. That's the best part of, I think, what you're doing. Not to turn this into an infomercial for All-Star Charts.

No, carry on. No, but you are telling people this is where we're wrong. Yeah. Whereas the fundamental person would say, I like the stock at 20. At 15, I like it even more. You might say, I like it at 20. If it violates 18, that used to be support. I don't want to be in it anymore, and I'm wrong on the trade.

In fact, we had a Sonos trade recently. We had a short on Sonos. I haven't heard about that in a long time. We got a short on Sonosos and we got stopped out of the out of the short and we put on a long right and some of like we had two customers are like jc what the hell to your lack of conviction generally i would say and that is one of the hardest things yes to to do and i talked to brett steenbarger he does a really good job of talking about this and flipping trades so hard it is the hardest thing I actually know that I can't do that.

I can't. If you go back, go back and go through all your trades throughout your whole life. What if I went long instead of short? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Or what if I went short? Or when you got stopped out,

that gives you a discipline. If you got stopped out, had you gotten stopped out and reversed a short or whatnot? Dude, when I first met you in 2012, you were talking about this. When you get stopped out, go the other way.

It's so hard. It's so hard. It requires just absolute dedication to price and not having any opinions about the company. Going for walks. Oh, you have to be. It's all part of the whole thing. But you can't have an opinion on Sonos,

the product. Or if you do. I do, it's awesome. You have to. I know, I love it too. You have to compartmentalize your opinion to be able to do that. By the way, Sonos filled the gap.

Yeah, so there you go. There you go. Not a breakaway gap. I want to ask you about Florida, and this is a hard, hard pivot. How do you feel about basically New York, which this has been happening in slow motion our whole lives,

but I think in the last two years or the last year and a half, New York has really been attempting to colonize Miami, not just New York, California, San Francisco, California is trying. So, but this is your, your Miami guy. How does this make you feel when you read these articles about it or hear stories from people that are in Miami about all these New York, New Jersey assholes? So I look at the whole thing through a few different lenses, right? A local, I lived in New York forever. I also lived in Northern California for a while. So I look at through different lenses. First of all, selfishly,

I love it because as you've known me for almost 20 years, every time I go down there, there's no business being done. I'm there to see friends, family, go to the beach, football game. Now I could extend that trip instead of three or five days, maybe it's seven now. And for a couple of days, I actually can get business done, set up up a couple of meetings maybe even get a deal done like some of the biggest hedge funds in america relocated to south florida yeah so here's here's the problem which is hilarious to me is that all these amateurs are moving to brickle like what do you do you go to the beach fly though brickles fly like times square's fly no so if you come from nebraska to new york hottest restaurant in miami during the pandemic i went to komodo yeah

that's that guy dave whatever's restaurant great so if you live in i did it next to pharrell what the f**k are you talking about brother he doesn't eat in times square brother go ahead if you live on the beach you're 15 minutes from that restaurant it's fine okay you can get there it's not it's not like you're going to fort lauderdale or oh actually saw Portnoy there too uh the same the same night great restaurant yeah terrific everybody was there it was not okay awesome but you don't have to live there okay fair right so where do you want to live where do you want to live if you're moving from from the northeast to Florida well so if you for me I would I would probably be more inclined to live in Brickell because I'm going west because I have friends and family that live in the suburbs.

But if you don't know anybody in Miami, live on the beach, right? You want to live on the beach. But where? Like where is that? How do you live on the beach? Me personally, I like West Avenue. So you're on the bayside. So your balcony overlooks downtown Miami, which is super sick.

And then you could just walk to the beach. And then since you're on the backside of South Beach, you're not with the riffraff. You can get on the highway. You can be in Brickell and Wynwood in freaking two seconds. And you don't have to live in Times Square or Brickell. Can I say something a little bit negative? I feel like they turned Miami Beach into Atlantic City in the worst possible connotation. No.

Maybe that was just when I was there. Certain parts of South Beach where tourists go has always been that. No, no, no, no, no. Listen to me. I've been going to the Fountain Blue for 10 years, usually for conferences. I booked a—this is my mistake. We were down there in February with the kids. We made a Valentine's Day evening dinner at the Fountain Blue.

What's the Italian rest? Scarpetta? Yep. First of all, everybody standing outside of the Fountain Blue is chain-smoking Marlboros. Like, just like the worst crowd I've ever seen at this place. Yeah, but the Fountain Blue's the Mary Marquis.

They're like- You're going to Times Square. They're drinking cans of beer in the lobby that they bought in the gift shop. It's just the worst thing I've ever seen. And I almost feel like they ruined the vibe of some of those hotels there by making them so friendly to the COVID shit show.

And I wonder if that goes away when the pandemic fades. I think touristy hotels are going to always be that. I've never seen it that bad, I guess. It's the same thing in New York City. And I love that hotel, by the way. No disrespect to the Falun Gong. Dude, most hotels are in a drawdown. Just because hotel-

Not in South Florida. Tell me the average drawdown. No, no, no. Not in South Florida is game on all the time. Listen, the bottom line is I love the fact that people are moving to Miami. For me, for my taste, they're doing it wrong. They're moving to Brickell. Amateur hour.

You like Kyle Lowry moving to Miami? Man, that was a nice one. PJ Tucker. Look at you with the nice one. P.J. Tucker. Look at you with the segue. Look at you. This is the last thing we were going to get into. So the Heat starting five is Lowry, Oladipo, Butler. No.

No what? I think Oladipo's gone. No, they re-signed him. Butler. They re-signed him last year. He played five minutes. P.J. Tucker. I'm assuming Oladipo's not playing.

P.J. Tucker and Bam with Duncan off the bench. That's pretty good. Duncan is starting. Hero. So Hero and Oladipo off the bench? Hero off the bench. Still. That's pretty good. Duncan is starting and... Hero. So, Hero and Oladipo off the bench? Hero off the bench. Still. That's really good. He's not in the starting five. Right now, now that we have Lowry retired.

He's the most famous player on the team. Hero in pop culture. He's like the fan favorite. By the way, what am I saying? It's Lowry, Hero, Duncan Robinson, Jimmy and Bam. That's really named a song after Tyler. He's like that guy right now. I was looking at...

What are you talking about? We're having different conversations. What are you saying? I was saying Tyler Hero is probably the most famous player that doesn't start in the NBA because of his cred in pop culture. Does he have a lot of cred in pop culture? Yeah, dude.

That was like one of the biggest rap songs of the year last year. Oh, because he had a rap song named after him. He's a rapper? No, he has a rap song named after him. Jack Harlow named the song. I don't know what you're talking about. It was a very big deal. I listened to Jethro Tull.

Fair. You like what they did in the offseason. You're happy? Honestly, it exceeded expectations. I was hoping for Lowry. You know, last year they were just exhausted from the prior run. Do you know that you and I watched LeBron's decision together? We were like sitting in a restaurant.

No, we did not. But earlier that day, we were in a bar. We were at a beer bar. Okay. But I watched the decision and my apartment. I know that for a fact because when you said Miami, I fell to my knees. And I was like, yes! Okay.

So, oh, it might have just been that night. And I wanted to kill myself. You and I had the exact opposite reaction. Josh and I were not friends for a few days after that. How do you feel about... I know you had to do this, but Jimmy brought this 31. And four for 196 is a big contract. It's a lot of dough.

He's a guy you want. He's a guy you want on your team. He's a guy you want in your locker room. He's bigger than just what he does on the court. If things go wrong, they can't move that. No. Well, you can move anything. Westbrook proved that, but still, that's not good.

I like, speaking of pivoting a little bit, I like what the Knicks did not giving an extension to your boy. What's his face? Randall. We just did. Oh, they did? This morning. Oh, my God.

I was going to say how smart it was to make him earn it one more year. No, if you waited a year, it would have been $200. We paid him $4 for $140. That's not bad. They paid him $5 million. I like the Kemba move. Kemba used to kill the Knicks. So now he's on your team, right?

Do we get Kemba for $2? Am I understanding this right? Do we get him for free? $8 million. So for free? Someone else is writing that bill. Yeah, Oklahoma City. Oklahoma City.

They ate it. What was that all about? They couldn't trade him. They just ate it like that? Well, they dumped Horford to get him, and they got another pick, and then they flipped that. So they did get something. How old is Horford?

Like 50? Yeah, he's washed. He's washed. All right. So Kemba, and then what does that mean for – is anyone talking about what that means about any more signings? Because there's still a lot of guys on the board. It's over.

It's over. Our roster is full. We have 12 guys. I think this is it. I'm psyched. I'm psyched. So it's going to be, the Heat are going to be the one seed.

The Knicks are going to be the eight. Miami sweeps the Knicks and then we have this conversation. Can Kemba like be resurrected the way D-Rose was? No. The fact that you guys have D-Rose coming off the bench is solid.

Yes. Because you're not depending on him to be your point. You can't. You got Kemba. He played 20 minutes a game last year. It was perfect. But what's perfect is we only perfect is now we only need Kemba

for 25 minutes because we've got D-Rose, we've got IQ. If they can both stay healthy, which is a big if. They're not going to. Right. Kemba looked like a corpse

last year. I'm still excited. But we also managed to get through this keeping all of the young talent that people were excited about. Like RJ didn't get moved. Well, he couldn't, but...

RJ got better. He's going to keep getting better. To me, this season was always about RJ taking another step. The defense, Noel's defense. He's still younger than some of the rookies who drafted. So he's still a baby.

I'm excited. I'm very excited. Knicks fans usually are. No, come on. You guys are usually excited in the summer. No, I'm not.

This is the best time of year for Knicks fans. And then the best, no, the best time of the year for the Knicks fan are when pitchers and catchers report in February. So that they can forget about the Knicks. Not this year for the Knicks fan are when pitchers and catchers report in February. So that they can forget about the Knicks. Not this year. Real Knicks fans are never optimistic. We have nothing to look forward to, but it's changed.

My father-in-law is like, I just want to watch the Knicks from the 70s. Of course. You like this kid Duncan's three-point game. And then you got P.J. Tucker. P.J. Tucker playing defense. He's like a younger Iguodala. Right. Right?

All right. We've been over this. How do you see the—I want JC to been over this. How do you see the... I want JC to go on record. How do you see the East shaping up? Give me like top six. It's going to be Miami, Brooklyn. Miami won.

Miami won. Okay. Brooklyn. You got to stop. Miami, Brooklyn, Milwaukee. Cut him off. Kill his mic. Why is that wrong?

First of all, Miami with... Did Milwaukee get worse? Miami with a much, Milwaukee did get worse. They lost P.J. Tucker. So Miami should have won the finals but they were not healthy in the finals against the Lakers. Should have. Well, every team was dealing with that shit though.

Half the superstars weren't playing. No, the Lakers were healthy that year. Just stop. They're not going to have a better record than the Bucks or the Nets. Okay, I guess we'll see. You're going to buy me sushi? I have expensive taste. Yes, I'll buy you sushi. Okay, so when the Heat are the one seed and the Knicks are sub five. Forget about the Knicks.

If the Heat take the one seed, we will get sushi. We should get sushi anyway. So soapbox is when I give everybody a chance To rant about something that everyone is either Paying too much or too little attention to Why do you call it soapbox? Get on your soapbox Is that like a thing?

That's a thing on our show So I actually don't have one this week Because I wanted to give you room Because I know that you have a lot of passion About what you want to talk about So you're saying more to price, less to news So that's like around the horn. I just won and now I have like my-

I'm giving this to you. I want you to go. Well, you know, when I, remember when I sublet Office Space from you guys on 44th and 5th, way back in the day, like 2012. And I used to still watch television and then like bury you to walk in and be like,

how do you watch this shit? Right? And like, I didn't quite get it yet. Easy. I knew it was bad for me. Go easy. So I think that the best thing that I ever did as an investor and quite frankly as a human being is to listen to more music, listen to more podcasts, read more books, watch less television, read less magazines and articles. You know, right?

It's not just about an investing and a trading standpoint. It's more of like a lifestyle. I don't watch any news on cable because I just feel like I just don't have time during the day. Right. And at night, I want to read books and be with my friends. So part of it is like what's the information? But then like part of it is I only have so many hours that I'm awake. And it's the same reason I unplugged from social media because I just don't, I just don't have the time anymore. Like, I don't think you can really run

a business, um, and be on social media all day, unless that is your business. And for most people, it's not so. Yeah. But if you cure it, like I've never had a Facebook account, for example, And for most people, it's not. Yeah, but if you curate – like I've never had a Facebook account, for example. I still don't understand LinkedIn. I have like, I don't know, 10,000 friends on LinkedIn. I don't know any of them. They're not your friends.

We're your friends. Exactly. But like on Twitter, like if you do a good – I only follow like a few people. Like if you really curate your stream, I miss you on Twitter because you were one of the most important people that I used to have on my stream. And then here's why, let me tell you why, because I knew that if there was something that I needed to know, Josh was either writing about it or making fun of it. Okay. Fair. And there's, and there's a few others like you that serve that purpose for me. And I lost one. You had an amazing tweet in Slack today. I won't, I won't say what it was, but. Oh yeah. So imagine if I said that in real life, out loud

to a million people. I can't do it anymore. Michael and I have said that if we never met you, and we just... Our only exposure to you was Twitter, we probably wouldn't be friends. I'd hate you. You have a very strong persona, specifically on Twitter, that I know

is not really representative of you in real life. Like what? Like how? I mean, we're not going to go to the tweets. JC, I love you. I hate your Twitter. What? I'm just sharing charts. But you didn't unfollow JC on Twitter.

No, of course not. Yeah, but you guys, like, you are not just sharing charts. Stop it. No, no, because you're so antagonistic, and you know it. To who? The world. What do you mean? Come on.

Who am I antagonizing? JC will just go on Twitter like 8 o'clock in the morning and say, if any professional is not long copper, they're actually irresponsible. Come on. That's not antagonistic. Well, if I feel that way, I'm not trying to antagonize. I'm telling it like it is. Do you even read the mentions after blasting something like that out? You can't. I'm not trying to antagonize. I'm telling it like it is. You even read the mentions after blasting something like that out? You can't.

I'm not like a Twitter guy. Like, I don't like, I just, I think out loud and it is what it is. And I don't know how many people follow me, like 100,000 or something like that. Great. If it was a thousand, that's great. If it's a million, that's great too. It really is in the same way that like writing is very therapeutic. Like we could put our thoughts down on paper.

Like I can't tell my wife, be like, Morgan, if you are not long copper, that's irresponsible. You're going to look at me like I'm crazy. So I tweet that out instead. Right? Right. So you put that out there to people that don't know you at all. I will say nobody. And it gets off my chest.

If you had 50 followers, you'd be tweeting the same. And nobody, nobody loves charts more than you. I would agree that you are the chart. Like when people think of technical analysis, it used to be Akinpora. I know there are other technicians that we all love and respect. This is not a diss to anybody.

But I do think that you have made it so that, and maybe this was your plan. You have made it so that you are the person that everyone thinks of when the subject of technical analysis comes up. You've done a great job. Oh, thank you. I appreciate that. Duncan, do we have an applause?

When you hear charts, you think of JC, right? I mean, I do, 100%. Well, Duncan does. I send him like a zillion of them. So you, no, but you have done that and not superficially. You're very involved with the Market Technicians Association. You've been a huge booster of all the stuff they do and broadening the message. And you've traveled the world to meet other technicians in India, in Japan. A lot of people don't know that about you,

but I think you've accomplished that. People say TA and it's JC Peretz. I appreciate that, but I'm telling you, it's a selfish thing. The appreciate that I'm telling you it's a it's a selfish thing the fact that I can go to pretty much any city in the world and I have friends there find candlestick people everywhere it's so sick like I go to Singapore and I'm drinking Singapore slings with Ramander at the local hotel and then I'm in Japan eating sushi with Tokyo gym and then I'm in Hong Kong I mean it's fantastic and it's such a thing. And the one thing I've learned through all my travels and all these countries that I've gone, I grew up-

To Africa? I have not been to Africa. That's the only thing you haven't done? Well, there's a lot of things I haven't done. No, I'm saying like region to go meet technicians. Well, Africa's a big continent. So I would argue I haven't even touched Asia. I've been to like six or seven countries in Asia,

but I haven't even like touched. I still got to go to Vietnam. Dude, remember EGPT? EGPT, Egypt, Egypt. Of course. Is it still there? I don't know. We used to talk about it all the time.

Who went to Guam and found a technician? I've been to Guam twice. Twice last year? There's no technicians in Guam. There are. I actually have a client in Guam. It's amazing. It is kind of amazing.

And the cool thing is, is like as different as our cultures are, like I'm Cuban from Miami and I'm in Mumbai or in Tokyo, the people are very different. We grew up very different. We eat different foods. We do different things, but supply and demand. It's a human being that brains are the same, right? It's something that you have. It's a discipline that becomes a commonality that I think goes above all the other cultural differences. Like we can all agree that's a great fucking setup on a chart. We all, all the people, we like a good chart. We like good food and we like a good drink, right? So those three, I have in common with people in every single country in the world and every major city. And

that's what's beautiful. All right, let's do favorites. And then we're going to get out of here. I'm going first, and this is the first time I'm recommending something that didn't even come out yet. New Nas album tomorrow. JC and I both love Nas. Mike could take it or leave it. Trapless came out. Well, I could take it. I'm not leaving. I could take it. What's your date with Nas?

If you were to listen to any rap... Is he too young? How old are you? No, I'm 85. No, he's just not a hip-hop guy. If you were to listen to any rap. Is he too young? How old are you? No, I'm 85. No, he's just not a hip hop guy. If you were to listen to any rap music though, I think I would point you to Nas because he's actually saying things that I think you would find interesting. Okay. The first album. Any album.

First. Is that Illmatic? It started with Illmatic. Illmatic. It was written. Fine, but those stories and Illmatic is a good start. Hip hop is dead. All right.

So King's Disease 2 is tomorrow. King's Disease 1 came out last August, and he won a Grammy. And that was his first Grammy. And I don't even think it was his best album. It wasn't even his best album. They put out a track list yesterday. Eminem and Nas, first time ever on a song together. People are going to go crazy when that comes out.

Who else did I see that was on there? Was it- Lauryn Hill. Lauryn Hill. I'm super stoked about Lauryn Hill. So they were on It Was Written Together. That was like a number one smash hit. They were touring together a few years ago too.

Okay, so this is going to come out tomorrow. It's going to break the internet. It's why I know Kanye is not also coming out on the same day, obviously. And I thought this was interesting. I read that Eminem spent $600,000 to buy a sealed cassette tape of Illmatic. So yeah, so there's like a little bit of continuity there.

Like Eminem has a lot of Nas in him, like in the way that in his cadence and his flow. Yeah, sure. Storytelling. All right, this is going to be sick. All right, that's my favorite. What do you got? Who wants to go next?

I'll go. Um, I rewatched, uh, the usual suspects. It's on Amazon prime. It's like a flawless movie. I know like the Brian Singer,

Kevin Spacey stuff is like awful, but like flawless, like every aspect of it. Just, it's so tight and it's aged so beautifully. And I, I, I saw it.

It was on all the time we were younger, you know, but like, I haven't seen him probably like 20 years. It's a great flick. Man, so good. Packy's newest post on like exponential improvement in human beings. And that was awesome.

And Mark Rubenstein had a really good sub stack on Blackstone. And we got to get Rubenstein. If he comes to New York, we got to get him on. They have killed it, obviously for themselves. We know how rich Schwarzman is, but also for their clients. They've made, I forget what the, how many billions, but many billions for their clients as well. So they crushed it.

Blackstone. Yeah. Yeah. That's, that's a great, that's one of his better posts. He goes into like the history of the private equity industry and how Blackstone figured out like the most profitable way. And for the how Blackstone figured out like the most profitable way. And for the shareholders. So it was like the trifecta.

They question for themselves. They enrich themselves, their clients, and the shareholders. Speaking of nice stocks. Yeah, exactly. These guys were M&A guys and they realized we'll never make as much money as we could unless we're actually investors. So rather than living on the fees of like deal-making,

let's be in the deal with our own capital. And that's a really great. So everybody check out. What's the name of mark rubinstein's sub stack uh net interest net interest okay jc what do you got so i just uh a great podcast i mean it's not it didn't just come out came out a couple months ago uh jeff de graff and ned davis wow where do you listen to that uh i think it's on the ren mac podcast um Like I think it's Renaissance Macro I think it's called. I mean these are – like when you talk about me as a technician and the guys that I looked up to or still do obviously, my predecessors and my colleagues too. It's not just predecessors. Like when you talk about the Mount Rushmore of technical analysts, I mean for me, I've learned so much from Jeff DeGraff.

I had him on my podcast. Ned Davis is the man. And when you hear these two together. What was DeGraff's claim to fame? What firm did he get? He was a Lehman. He was a Lehman for a while. JC, what makes a technician so good? Being open-minded, being creative with the tools and strategies that they develop and incorporating multiple asset classes and sentiment and breath and bringing it all together. Like I strive to do some of the things that these guys have done. Jeff, the graph in particular, first of all, Ned Davis's book being right or making money, just the title alone. Like you're good. Just like, just read the title.

And like, that's going to help you. And then on the job, and then read the book and then the Jeff the graph I mean he's the one who first taught me first you want to identify what type of market environment we're in and then figure out what tools and strategies are best served for that environment as opposed to you know whatever indicator you built you know and just force it upon the market you get new all-time highs in the bull market and the bear market? By definition, no. Yeah.

Okay. Oh, that's how you want to go out? Hold on. I'm not done yet. I'm not done with my, what do we call this? What do we call this segment? Favorites. Favorites.

Favorites. I just read Atomic Habits. I know I'm probably not new to this. James Clear. James Clear. So like me, I love reading like behavioral finance stuff. Like for me, like that shit is awesome. You know, and what we're doing as technicians is taking advantage of the flaws in human beings. Right. So just simple awareness of our human flaws, I think gives us a huge

advantage. And I thought that the, you know, I'm not like a, you know, one of these like self-help guys or anything like that. But like, I thought that that was very prescriptive as opposed to the descriptive process that we see in most books to quote the great philosopher Phil Perlman. Love it. I haven't gotten to that atomic habits thing, but that's one of those things that people keep telling me. Did you read this? Did you read this? If you've read all the other behavioral finance stuff, which I know you've like done some of that, like this like builds upon that.

Yeah. No, I got to. You know what? Very cognitive. I already know I'm not going to get to that this summer. I got to get serious again this fall. I'm just having too much fun this summer. I'm not really reading as much as I used to. All right. We're going to we're going to first of all, round of applause for JC crushed it on the pod today. We have that round of applause.

Where are we at? Love it. It's more of like a concert crowd applause. Yeah, we got to work on that. For the latest in financial blogger fashion, check out idoneshop.com. That's the compound official store. For JC stuff, allstarcharts.com is like the mothership. And you can find everything that you were talking about earlier on there. Okay. And then some. I get all your stuff. I read a lot of it.

I think you're awesome in that format. Like that is the I get all your stuff. I read a lot of it. I think you're awesome in that format. Like that is the perfect format for your stuff. If you love investing podcasts, you have a podcast? I do. Technical Analysis Radio. Search All Star Charts on iTunes. All right. And we have Animal Spirits coming out next week.

Comes out Monday and Wednesday. That's Michael and Ben. And the most important thing, all the charts that we were talking about today, if you want to actually see them and watch JC narrate them, go to youtube.com slash the compound RWM. Subscribe to the channel. Watch the video.

You'll see all the charts and you'll see us hanging out. And we hope you like the YouTube channel. We put a ton of effort into that. And we try to capture the best of the podcast in video format. Shout out to John. Shout out to Duncan. Great job this week.

Put my toys down, please. And we will be back with you guys very soon. Thank you, JC. Round of applause. All right. Dude, was that fun? That was awesome. You ready to pick out? All right. We're going to do Gaie Dao. All right. So was that fun? That was awesome. You ready to pick out?

All right. We're going to do Gaie Dao. All right. Gaie.