The Compound and Friends - Million Dollar Payout, Oracle Earnings Preview, Risk On, the Case for Salesforce
Episode Date: December 10, 2025On this TCAF Tuesday, hear an all-new episode of What Are Your Thoughts with Downtown Josh Brown and Michael B...atnick! This episode is sponsored by Public. Find out more at https://public.com/WAYT Sign up for The Compound Newsletter and never miss out! Instagram: https://instagram.com/thecompoundnews Twitter: https://twitter.com/thecompoundnews LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-compound-media/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thecompoundnews Public Disclosure: Paid endorsement. Brokerage services provided by Open to the Public Investing Inc, member FINRA & SIPC. Investing involves risk. Not investment advice. Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool by Public Advisors. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. See disclosures at public.com/disclosures/ga. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and investment values may rise or fall. See terms of match program at https://public.com/disclosures/matchprogram. Matched funds must remain in your account for at least 5 years. Match rate and other terms are subject to change at any time. Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Josh Brown are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. The Compound Media, Incorporated, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information. Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here: https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Transcript
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Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the compound and friends.
Tonight's episode is brought to you by Public, the investing platform for people who take it seriously.
If you want to learn more, go to public.com slash w-A-Y-T, as in what are your thoughts?
And that's what we're doing tonight on the show.
It's Michael and I.
We do an Oracle earnings preview, some of the big storylines that everybody on Wall Street is
watching for when they report tomorrow after the close.
We get into some stuff about whether or not we're in a risk-on environment in the markets in general, which Michael and I actually disagree on.
We have a great chart from Pimco in here.
We're doing some stuff about whether or not you would want to take a million dollars lump sum or a thousand dollars weekly for life and how you would even go about figuring out the answer to that question, both financially and emotionally, and so much more.
I also want to let you guys know if you're not sure what to get the person in your life
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Okay. Can everyone hear and see me? Raise your hands.
All right. So one person. All right. Wi-Fi issues today in multiple locations. Not my favorite day of the year.
but it's 5 o'clock Eastern
and we have a show to do
so I want to welcome everybody
to an all new edition
of what are your thoughts
my name is downtown Josh Brown
my co-host is here as always
Mr. Michael Batnik
Michael say hi
gosh darn right I'm here as always
how are you doing
that's right
and look at this monster I got behind me
in the in the guest bedroom
can you see?
No what is that
can you see the puppet
you can't see it?
What is that?
It's like it's a it's a puppet
named Richard
When my kids were younger
There were many puppet shows
All right
Guys, tonight's a big show
I think we have tons of topics
In the doc that we want to get to
I want to just before we
Shout out the sponsor
I just want to say hello to a few people
Who have joined this live in the chat
Really appreciate you as always
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Guys, thank you for being here.
We appreciate it.
Tonight's show is brought to you by Public.
Michael, what's the story with Public?
That's right, Josh.
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That's a pretty good offer. I like it. I think people should take them up on that.
All right. This week, we're going to get a heat check on the AI trade because Oracle has earnings
tomorrow night. And I want to start off by sharing something that the trading desk at Bank of
America put out in an email blast. They said probably the most system.
systematically important print for the AI trade this week, this week.
This is an opportunity for management to speak on the infrastructure buildout, address
investor concerns on the timing of free cash flow, CAPEX, revenue recognition, et cetera.
I think the analyst meant systemically important print, not systematically important.
I hope, gosh, I hope not.
But I think that's what that's the, it's not systematically.
important. It's systemically important, like a systemically important financial institution.
I think they use the wrong word. This is a big one. Do you agree? I sure do.
Say more. Okay. I will say more. So when we were in the last time that Oracle reported,
the stock was up as much as 43% on the day. It closed up like 36%. Throw this Wall Street Journal
cover up. We were in future proof. We were in California when this came out. So we obviously saw the
headlines, but I didn't dive into the report. So in preparation for the show, and chart off,
please. And as a shareholder myself, I said, you know what? Maybe I should get smart on this
call. What did they say last time? Because in fact, what was interesting about the call last time is
the numbers were actually not even great. So the Wall Street Journal said the bright revenue
prospects, this was on September 9th when they reported last time, overshadowed an otherwise
mixed performance.
So revenue was up 12%.
But they missed expectations.
They missed top line.
It didn't matter because what mattered was what they said, which was this.
The cloud infrastructure revenue is on track to grow 77% this year to $18 billion, the CEO
said.
Then she said it's expected to reach $32 billion, then $73 billion, then $114 billion, and finally $144 billion in
four fiscal years that follow. So obviously, whatever happened to the most recent quarter,
who cares? It's all about expectation. So here's why the stock jumped so much. Obviously,
there's what she said, as well as the Ford multi-billion dollar deals that they said. But I was
listening to the man, Larry Ellison, talk about the quarter. Here's what he said. This is what
got people excited. He said, AI will change, and give me a minute just to get through this,
AI will change everything. But right now, AI is fundamentally transforming Oracle and the rest of
the computer industry, though not everyone fully grasps the extent of the tsunami that is
approaching. Some things are undeniably evident. Several world-class AI companies have chosen
Oracle to build large-scale GPU-centric data centers to train their AI models. That's because
Oracle builds gigawatt-scale data centers that are faster and more cost-efficient at training
AI models than anyone else in the world. Training AI models is a gigantic
multi-trillion dollar market.
It's hard to conceive
of a technology market
as large as that one.
But if you look close,
you can find one that's even larger
and it's the market for AI inferencing.
So he goes on and on to talk about this,
but this is how they opened the call
and this blew people away.
This made him,
he gained $100 billion like overnight.
This was the thing that
it fundamentally changed the story of Oracle.
Now, we know what's happened
since then.
Obviously, Sam Altman spoke,
the stock closed the gap,
etc., etc.
But it was a massive quarter.
And now, obviously, expectations have been reset.
Investors have sobered up.
But, yeah, it is a very, very important report.
And I'm staying long to the print.
I help them right.
We'll see.
They, so they lost all of that market cap gain.
So that was in September.
That was in support.
Yep, that's right.
Okay.
So by like the end of November, the bloom was off that rose.
Gone.
And I think the entirety of that gain.
just left. Nasty as gap fill. I mean, in recent memory.
Okay. So I want to share some of the storylines going into why this, not just the numbers themselves,
but like the call. Because people are genuinely concerned with some of these issues like
revenue recognition and the long-term accounting value of a GPU, et cetera,
etc. So these are some of the highlights. First of all, the street is looking for earnings of
$1.64 on $16.2 billion in revenue. And if they hit that number, that's 15% year-over-year growth,
which is damn good. Analysts are talking about a metric called RPO, remaining performance
obligations. And so this is about the backlog and the big deals that they're announcing, the bookings,
continuing to accelerate because obviously if you're if you're long the stock that's what
you need to hear to justify buying it um you do have a bunch of analysts that have gotten out
ahead of the call and have been positive on the stock which i would hope so because they were all
positive at the top so i would certainly hope they still they still like it um but then you've got
analysts that are saying wait a minute all this heavy capex all this leverage um
You know, how much of the backlog actually turns into revenue at some point.
So it's an interesting battleground stock at this point.
Customer concentration risk is another big storyline.
So that sounded like a strength in September when Larry talked about multi-billion dollar
whatever.
But now that's sort of been turned into a, uh-oh, you have all your eggs in just a few baskets.
And what happens if meta pulls back?
And what happens if this customer or that customer?
So that's one of the storylines here.
The capital intensive nature of the buildout.
Lots of questions on how much pressure that will put on free cash flow in terms of like depreciation,
which we've been talking about for a while.
What is the interest expense on the debt?
So you'll get questions about that.
Wait, the risk is this.
It's not meta or any of those customers pulling back.
It's wait a minute.
The five-year, $300 billion deal that you announced with Open AI, are they going to be able to pay you?
Because that is obviously in question, and that's what rocked the stock.
Well, but I do think, like, follow on things like the meta issue, like meta letting it be known via the tech press that they're considering using Google's TPUs, that to me is in direct competition with the idea that all of these.
invidia-powered data center build-outs make sense economically.
In a world where there is a potentially cheaper option, that's what spooked a lot of the
investor base.
So yes, I agree with you.
The open AI issue is 100% important, maybe the most important, but it's not mutually
exclusive from some of these other potential nits that people are going to want to pick.
So there's a lot.
There's a lot of different storylines.
We have some charts.
Why don't we roll through these,
and Michael, you can narrate what we're looking at.
Let's go, chart on.
All right, this is not particularly important to me.
Matter of fact, what this show is,
we're looking at earnings per share
over the last 12 months.
It's flat.
It's been flat.
What's done is done.
Everybody's looking forward.
So this chart to me is not particularly relevant.
What's the next one?
Revenue, okay?
Not nothing.
Up 28%.
59 billion.
annualized, and it's the pre-chat GPT moment, that number was more like 40.
Yeah.
So it doesn't seem like a dramatic rise on this chart, but it's a big deal.
No, you see the inflection, for sure.
Next chart, what do we got?
All right, this is it.
I mean, this is obviously going to be a big one.
How are you paying for this?
How much debt do you plan on taking?
What does the interest expense look like?
And is the revenue going to be there to fund these obligations?
So this is a big one for sure.
I don't this the stock is not going to meander tomorrow I think it's going to be either up 10 or down 15
percent oh I wanted to ask you that so you don't think that there is any chance of this being a
ho-hum reaction there's always a chance but no I think it's a I think it's a relatively small chance
I don't know I would guess under I'm under 15 percent I don't know making that up I think I think
it is much more likely that the stock either gains 15 or loses 15 and obviously I hope it gains 15
for the sake of the market.
Where are you in this name?
I bought the bottom.
I bought the bottom.
Not to brag.
I will tell you,
I can grab it,
but I bought it like Danny at the bottom.
Like 212?
Bottom?
Which bottom?
Please.
I'm impressed by that.
Your call is important to us.
Yeah.
Let's say.
Don't know about where I bought it.
I'm up.
I'm up 3%.
So my average price is...
Oh.
2.15.
So I bought it and then I bought more.
So I don't know where in my first buy list, but 2.15.
Okay.
Look, I'm rooting for a positive outcome here.
I'm not one of these people that, you know, is looking for drama or looking for, like, news just for the sake of news.
I would love to see the company come out with a good report.
and affirm all of the spending
and all of the necessity for the spending
that the bowls want to hear
and I'd love to see the stock bounce a little bit
and continue higher.
I'm not currently long
and I have to be honest with you.
I'm sort of worried.
I'm sort of worried.
I think it might be a situation
where almost no matter what they say,
it won't be good enough.
But maybe that's not the case.
and we're all we're all going to find out
and it's not going to take very long.
We're going to find out this time tomorrow.
Let the record show that my first buy was November 14th,
so not the bottom.
In fact, I did not buy the bottom.
What do I think what?
What do you think,
what area of the market do you think is most at risk
of a not great outlook
or a not great report?
I think it's the chips.
On the heels of this?
Like if they miss what's in trouble?
Not if they miss.
Let's say they'd be.
let's say they beat, but they don't give strong enough guidance or the tone of the call
isn't positive enough because the chips, the semis just made a record high like today or yesterday.
What is the highest beta, the name that's high, most highly lever to the chip story?
Is it core weave?
I don't know.
Yeah.
Be interesting.
I wonder if all those power providers and that whole electricity trade can hold of, if,
Oracle falls, because they're sort of like one of the biggest customers for all of the,
like, AI data center components and the electricity.
So, look, I, I, I, I'm worried, but I also don't think that any of these companies could
jeopardize all the spending they've done already by giving anyone the impression that they,
that, that they're not going to follow through with it.
I'm less worried about that's like the bullish case.
I'm not worried about the report itself.
I would be surprised if they're like, uh-oh, guys, uh, what we told you in September didn't pan out.
Like, I just, but I think the, I think the warrior would be that the market doesn't care, sort of like it did with Nvidia in the short term.
The market just wants to sell it anyway.
All right.
Does Michael Burry get on the call and ask a question in the Q&A?
You're joking.
No, I'm asking.
No.
Is that a thing that could happen?
No.
Can't.
No?
Okay.
No.
All right.
Would they let him through?
No, these are,
I don't know.
You might have you tried?
No, these are sales on analysts.
He's not on the call.
I'm just asking, could he get on the call?
No.
Is it possible?
You've never heard of buy,
you've never heard a buy side firm,
get on a call and ask a question.
A one man.
Greenlight Capital has done it.
He's a one man operation.
He's not getting at the call.
All right.
All right.
Just, just, just curious.
All right.
So we're rooting for you.
We're rooting for you,
we're not making too much of this.
This is a big deal.
If I lose money, it will not be the first time.
So it's okay.
Whatever happens, I'll be okay.
Yeah, well, we know.
All right.
All right.
All right.
We're on next.
Okay.
Okay.
This next segment is brought to you by Pimco to learn more about their suite of
ETFs.
Visit Pimco.com slash ETFs.
I've got a chart for you.
I believe this is from, oh, it says it right there on the bottom.
There's from Goldman.
Check this out.
Not new, but nope, nope, nope.
There we go.
All right.
The 10 largest comp.
companies represent 41% of the market cap of the index and 32% of the earnings.
So this is hardly breaking news to say that everything hinges on the top 10, right?
That's it.
That's the story.
I was very surprised by this next chart.
Here we go.
This is a value composite.
And the reason why I was surprised, I'm like, wait a minute.
So what this is showing you for the listener, whatever value composite you're creating,
multi-factor, just one of price of sales, price of book, EVA, EBA, whatever it is,
they all look like this.
Obviously, it went nuclear in 2000 and in 2020.
But what surprised me was the extent to which these names came in, the value spreads came in.
Reason why is this is a global value composite.
Josh, did you know that international value stocks are absolutely, did I delete this?
Maybe I did.
Are absolutely beating the pants off of the index, like S&P and global.
International value stocks are up like 35.
So I'm talking about this with Ben today, completely underreported.
I think maybe because it's only been a year.
And if you like zoom out, it's like a glitch.
Not a glitch.
It's a blip.
It doesn't register at all.
If these, if value international stocks and value stocks continue to work,
pretty international value, in 2026, it's going to start to make headlines.
I think one of the reasons it's been so underreported,
and I know Ben shared that chart with us where Italy, like the country's stock market,
beat the S&P over the last, what was it, three years, one year?
Something like that.
I think it was three.
Right.
I think one of the reasons it's been so little remarked upon is because nobody owns those stocks.
you know if you if you're um if you're doing stories at the wall street journal you go to an editor
and either you have an idea or they assign something to you and they're not assigning
articles about international value stocks because who is the fucking reader yeah who's clicking that
yeah other than me you meb faber and like nine other losers nobody else cares we care because
we're we have nothing better to pay attention to okay so that's one of the reasons why
this is not being reported on. And then it's the stocks themselves. Like you look at what's in
these indices. You know, like Canada is up 31% this year. Why? Because gold went up. Like,
and banks. Italy, the story is banks and a little bit of auto. But you go country by country
and you realize it's really boring companies that people just don't care about. So like we we pay
attention because we're invested in international value stocks. Put that chart back on. But my point,
I guess another point is this. In 2021 and 22, as these value metrics were getting to or passed
where you were in 2000, this was widely reported, right? Like a lot, a lot, a lot, a lot. And now that
they've come down, nobody cares anymore. Yeah. If only they did more AI. All right. Anyway, I wanted to,
What's this next one?
I have a good chart for you.
So did you know the SMP value index looks an awful lot like the S&P.
Throw up this table.
So these are the top three weights in the S&P value ETF.
Is Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon.
Did you know this?
Do words have no meaning anymore?
Apple is a value stock on what metric?
Amazon?
What are they valued at?
What are they valued them based on?
All right.
So look at this next chart.
So I honestly, I didn't look under the hood into the methodology for this, but the chart on the right, the chart on the left shows you the S&P on the X axis, okay, the weight and IVE, which is the S&P value on the left.
So it doesn't own Nvidia, interestingly.
It doesn't own Google or meta.
but if you look at Microsoft, it's basically in line.
Apple and Amazon, basically online.
So I don't know what they're using, but look at so.
Wait, what is MFUS, the multi-factor ETF?
This is Pimpco's Rafi product.
Okay, got it.
So they similarly are very underweight, but just, it looks nothing like the chart on the left.
Like, this is actually giving you valueish exposure.
Okay. So the returns should be wildly different. And they are. Or divergent enough where it makes sense.
So obviously, the S&P value, which is, it's S&P, has destroyed anything else with a actual value bend.
Right. So are we saying that the S&P value is not actually a value, is not actually a value fund right now?
That's what I'm saying. Given the top holdings are, what is it, Amazon, Apple and Microsoft?
In what universe is Apple a value stock?
Okay.
So if the value factor actually works from here, works like outperforms the market, then an
active value manager has a pretty good shot at doing better than the value index itself.
So there's also something, yeah, so there's also something called pure value, like S&P
has a pure value index.
So the S&P value, the IV has like $50 billion in assets.
the pure value, which is not Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft, nobody wants.
Like, there's like a billion dollars in there.
What, wait, what's in that?
That, like, screens out anything that's over a certain valuation or how do they come up with that one?
There's, there's, I don't know the methodology, but that's actual, like, you look at
the top of the names, you're like, yeah, I get why this is a billion dollars.
It's the actual value sucks and nobody wants.
Right.
Look, I think it's like, it's just hard to envision a scenario where you can, you
get like multi-year outperformance from a pure value index? No, it's not. It's absolutely not. If
the AI, if the AO trade goes south, of course values. No, I agree. That's what it would take.
It would take a bare market for the AI stocks. You'd have to be bearish on the AI stocks.
Dude, Open AI has a trillion dollar valuation. It's very easy to conceive a scenario in which value
outperforms. Yeah. I think it's half a trillion. But your point is,
well taken all right uh duncan give me my give me my thing on the screen okay do we have like
the wording or no anyway it it almost doesn't matter so this was a this was a post where a 20 year
old lottery winner was offered a million dollars or a thousand dollars a week forever right so let's say
she lives to 100, 80 years of $1,000 a week, something like that, or lives to 80, right, 60 years of a
and she chose the $1,000 a week. And I looked at the comments, and it's amazing, but like as many
comments as there were, oh, she made the right decision, she did the right thing. There were as many
comments saying, this idiot doesn't understand inflation. And I sort of feel like the right answer
to this. I know there's a right answer to this financially, of course. There's a calculation.
But then there's also like a right answer that's lifestyle driven or just like based on how
somebody wants to live their life. So before we get to the right answer, I was curious what your
answer would be. You're not 20, you're 40. You win the lottery tonight. And they say,
we'll give you a million dollars now or we'll give you a thousand dollars a week forever.
what do you do well you nailed it Josh I'm not 20 I'm 40 right now give me a million
dollars and it's no hesitation because there is a time value of money there is a financial
calculation like if you were to just plows in a spreadsheet and forget about taxes it gets
really complicated the thousand dollars a week will never catch up it just it just won't if
you compound that whatever percent on a thousand dollars or whatever percent on a million
dollars the thousand dollars will never catch up however as a 20 year old here's a few things
that you give yourself if you're doing $1,000 a week. You give yourself peace of mind.
You give yourself flexibility. Forget about time, value, money, inflation. I think we all
understand the math part of it. But guess what? Who's to say that a 20-year-old would be able to
properly handle a million-dollar windfall, even if it's cut in a half after taxes? What if you
blow it? What if you make a few bad decisions? So if I'm 20, I probably take the $1,000.
Now that I'm a grown-up, I'm happy to take the million dollars.
Okay. I think that's my answer, too.
and I'm older than 40.
So a thousand dollars a week is less meaningful.
But also, it's a function of where you're at in your life.
Yeah, that's it.
Because if you say this to a billionaire,
what the hell do they want to bother with a thousand dollar a week check for?
What is even the meaning of that?
Probably making a million dollars a month an interest.
So there's a component to this where it's like, who are you?
Not just how old are you, but what's your current financial situation?
where one answer makes more sense in another.
And the thing about being a billionaire
and taking a million dollars
is not going to change your tax bracket.
For her, it might change her tax bracket.
If she takes a million dollars,
the IRS is going to look at that
like she made a million dollars this year
and she'll be in the 37% federal tax bracket immediately.
And we don't know what state
and we're not going to get involved with state and local taxes.
So instantly, that decision does have an impact.
whereas $1,000 a week will not jump her up to a higher tax bracket.
So that's the first thing.
So I don't know if she'd lose half in taxes, but it'd be close enough.
The actual calculation on how long it would take for that weekly payment to get to a million is 19 years.
So for her, she'll be 39 years old by the time that starts to look smart.
And lifetime, that gets to like $3 million.
like assuming she makes it to I think the number was 80 in the age so but but but hold on but
you would you she's going to invest the money so you have to assume some growth well that's so that's
my next question are you more likely to invest the money if you get a million dollar lump sum
or are you more likely to invest the money if you're getting a thousand a week because in my
opinion what's more likely to happen with a thousand dollars a week you'll spend it is you're
just going to raise your living standards right and you'll add expenses that you can quote
unquote handle because you have the money coming in.
So I actually think the million-dollar lump sum more likely to be invested.
And also, if you're 20 years old and you get a million dollars, guess what?
You're buying yourself a few things, right?
So, but listen, I think, I think this young lady did the right thing for her.
I'm sure she thought a lot about it.
And a thousand dollars a week for life is not bad, despite what the math says.
It's okay.
It's not the worst choice in the world.
One comment said, you're all wrong.
The right answer is take the million dollars and buy a million.
more lottery tickets, which I thought that was. I thought that wasn't bad.
Yeah, but hold on. You know what else? Like windfalls are not good psychologically and mentally
for people's well-being. Everybody comes out of the woodwork, right? Obviously, hey, let me some
money. Yeah. You make a bad decision or two. Like, it's not healthy. It is not normal to inherit
such a large sum out of absolutely nowhere. It's one thing if you grew up in this lifestyle and
you grew up with money and you got an inheritance that you already knew was coming and it was
planned for and accounted for. That's one thing. But to just have a head.
a million dollars just bland on your head you're probably going to do something foolish i would at 20
you're going on a big trip and you're buying a really nice car yeah yeah it's the money's not you might
also do something really nice for your you might also do something really nice for your parents
and maybe it's like all right yeah i'm not investing it i'm doing something that makes me feel good
instead and i want to buy my parents a house and for the next 50 years that's my investment i get to
see them grow old in a house that I bought for them.
I don't know what the return on that is.
That's what I just, that's what I decided to do.
So there's a, there's somebody in the chat.
J.B. buys a BMW M3, is that John Suarez?
I'm going to buy an M3.
You definitely would have bought an M3.
How many pairs of sneakers is, am I buying with a million dollar windfall?
This is, but I bring this up and we can move on after this because there are things in
finance, in investing in personal finance, that the mathematical answer and the right answer
are not always aligned depending on who you are and what it is about yourself that's important.
So there's a lot of things where it's like, oh, I'll just get a calculator, I'll get a spreadsheet.
There's a lot of things where, okay, the numbers are the numbers, and we could sit here and
Oh, and like, we could sit here and do inflation calculations.
Like, what is $1,000 a week really going to be?
What kind of buying power is that going to have in 20 years?
Probably way less than it does today.
Like, we could do all that stuff too.
But like sometimes the right answer is person dependent.
And I think it's something that we lose sight of.
You know what doesn't show up in the spreadsheet?
Not to believe it by the point I just made, but your friend's asking you for money.
Like everyone you ever met.
That doesn't show up in the spreadsheet.
So you're 100% right.
Anything else?
No.
I was curious what you would say.
And you actually gave me the answer that I thought you'd give and I agree with it.
So we can move on.
Let's talk about the stock market.
I know I keep referencing the show we did a few weeks ago with Warren after the
Nvidia earnings.
I just can't believe that we're here again.
I mean, I guess I can, but it's just, it's wild how the market just does what it does.
We are fully in.
I don't know if you know this.
I mean, I know you know this.
We are fully in risk on mode in the stock market right now.
Maybe.
Maybe.
No, no.
Make the case.
Make the case.
I'm not sure I agree.
But we are not in risk on mode.
Okay.
I'll make the case.
Technology stocks are up 11 days in a row.
This is fairly rare.
In fact, going back to the turn of the century, it's happened two other times.
I would think that's risk on.
But wait, there's more.
It's not just technology.
It is, I don't know if you've paid attention to this, the Russell 2000, the micro cap index, which has gone nowhere for years.
And the equal weight index are all at or breaking out to new highs.
And how about the risk sniffer?
Need I remind you of the risk sniffer?
Can you smell that, Josh?
Oh, my God.
This is my favorite thing.
All right.
This is from our friend at duality research showing.
The high-yield credit spreads, discretionary versus staples, high beta versus low volatility.
He says, listening to the best sniffers in the market, suggests this rebound is getting all the
confirmation it needs.
Grant Hawkridge at Stock Market TV has a risk-on, risk-off ratio.
And in the risk-on bucket, you have copper, high-yield bonds, the Aussie dollar semiconductors,
and high-beta stocks.
In the risk-off, you've got gold, treasuries, yen, utilities, and staples.
So this is a ratio chart.
And it's at the highest levels of 2025.
I don't know how you can make the case, make any other case that today, this is no commentary
on where we'll open tomorrow or next week.
But right now, this is emphatically, this is not my opinion.
This is a risk on market.
But I'd love to hear the other side of it.
All right.
I agree with you that based on all of those data points, it's obviously risk on.
Even Bitcoin seems to be showing signs that it wants to get off the mat.
and that's another risk-sniffer item that I think is worth us keeping tabs on.
It's not quite a springboard off of $85,000, but I think it's sort of important to see that moving with the markets.
Given the fact that a lot of people were saying Bitcoin liquidity issues were spilling into weakness in the NASDAQ, okay, I don't know if that's true or not.
That's the thing that people were saying not long ago, eight days ago.
so okay so that being up is another feather in your cap i want to point out that headline risk
can very quickly take us right back into risk off mode like within minutes and let me show you
something that popped up today time at i of course i agree with you at least things aren't
aren't at odds with each other if or go reports a bomb tomorrow we have a yes i know you're saying
i know what you're not saying but my point is in true risk
on mode we laugh at negative headlines okay we're not doing that yeah chart on give it all right
this is uh jp morgan absolutely rolling on a rand i know well i was on tv while it happened you
were sniff absolutely rolling i was sniffing risk while you were still on your second dream this
morning.
Holy shit.
I didn't say, yeah, this is an ugly candle.
My God.
Yeah.
Holy shit is right.
So this is, all right.
So J.P.
Morgan is cruising along in risk on mode, as you say, all day.
And then at 1238, a headline from a conference in New York hits the tape.
And this thing just fucking rolled.
And look at it.
Wow.
It was almost 319 this morning, closed almost below 300.
Okay?
And that is an.
And is it a trillion-dollar market cap?
No, but whatever.
Is it $800 billion?
Yeah.
Whatever.
I mean, it's a, this is a blue chip, Dow component, 100-year-old financial that fell out of the sky, intraday, like a 6-7% loss on a comment from a conference.
Do you want to hear what the comment was?
Sure.
I'd love to.
Pretty innocuous.
This is a woman named Marianne Lake, who is a very high-ranking executive at J.I.
JP Morgan, and she used the word, quote, fragile to describe the consumer.
And after that, the Dow Jones spent the rest of the day rolling over.
Here's what the journal said.
J.P. Morgan Chase's stock fell more than 4% Tuesday after the bank told investors it will spend
billions of dollars more in expenses next year.
At the Goldman Sachs conference in New York, consumer chief Marianne Lake told investors the bank
had just completed budgeting for next year
and is planning $105 billion
largely because of higher costs in her division.
The bank is expecting expenses this year
to be $95.9 billion
and analysts had anticipated $101 billion of expenses next year.
So let me catch you up on this.
The street thought it would be like $101 billion in expenses next year.
She just said more like $105.
The disparity of $4 billion, it's big, but it's not that big in the context of J.P. Morgan's business.
But it's where she sits in the bank that mattered to the market because she's on the consumer side.
So when we hear about a $4 billion uptick and expenses, what we're all saying is, wait a minute, more expenses on the consumer side sounds like chargeoffs.
Sounds like credit card shit or mortgage shit or car loan shit or whatever the stuff that she's,
overseas. And that is why I think the market got spooked. Not just JP Morgan. Look at an
intradate chart of the Dow. The whole thing started rolling in the minute she opened her mouth
and didn't stop. So my point is, if we were truly in risk on mode, this would not have gotten
anyone's attention. We would not have seen the price action that we saw. So in like a very,
in a real risk on moment, we laugh at danger. Danger is our middle name. And,
this market, she said the consumer's fragile. Look how fragile stock prices were as a result of that.
And it was to the minute that it started. So that's why I can't fully agree with you, even though
you have the ratios on your side and the ratio charts and the risk on the risk sniffer indicators
on your side. I'm looking at price action on headline risk and I'm saying, nah, we're not,
we're not right back. This is a more fragile market than it was an option.
November. And now I know, because Jamie Diamond was also talking in October. And people were
laughing. He was doing his, he was doing his like, you know, risk stuff also. And nobody paid
attention. And now they are. So that's, that's my, my slight divergence from, from what
you're saying. Do you remember Carlos Danger?
You're damn right. I do. Was that, was that the wildest shit ever? That was, uh, what, that was
the skinny governor was, what was that guy's name?
oh who that was wild the the the the the sex pest from new york he had a he had an alias
that was greatest thing ever who was a jewish guy anthony weiner and then oh yeah how can we forget
thank you chat uh where is that guy where is that guy now i don't know we could use so more
carless danger uh no it's a fair point i agree i i i don't disagree with anything you said um let's
keep moving.
All right.
When all it's going on.
Wait, I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
The one thing before our alts.
So we do have a, we do have a Fed meeting tomorrow.
And I want to show a chart.
This is interesting.
So it appears that the S&P, I'm sorry, that the Fed is going to cut rates.
And Subaru trade has a great chart showing what happens after the Fed cuts rates while
the S&P is within 1% of an all-time high.
It's not that rare.
So a lot of overlapping periods, but 1985, 86, 89, 90, 91, 95, 96, 19, 24.
I mean, it's happened.
And short-term, very mixed, very, very mixed.
One year later.
Why would the...
So what is it one year later?
What's the typical?
Oh, they're all green.
All green.
Okay. They're all green. So every time the Fed has cut rates within 1% of an S&P 500 high, the stock market. And it looks like noticeably higher. Look how sick. Look how sick the chart is on the bottom. The chart on the bottom shows one year later. And it shows the average forward return. Now, obviously, this is an average and it's never, it's not going to follow this path. Nobody's saying that. But just the point is the visual tells a very good story. Very choppy in the short term, like not even short, short to intermediate term. But given, give it.
give it nine months and um it 15% the average return a year later yeah is 15% yeah wow wow and wait
chart back on i love this chart i really do look at all the drawdowns though on the way
yeah dude the first that's like to me that's the thing the first six months have been choppy as
shit anything can happen anything can happen look at that this as much red is there is green
one month later it's like half and half
Yeah.
So slow your roll, everybody.
Okay.
All right.
All right.
Let's do this.
When alls go wrong.
So I don't bring this.
I don't bring this up because I'm trying to scare people out of alternative investments
or trying to paint every alternative investment with a brush and say that they're all problematic.
But there are, and there always have been my entire career, some very prominent examples.
of really bad situations with all with alternatives there's a lot of reasons for why the first
being the public has no idea what the hell they're buying the second being that information asymmetry
attracts bad actors into the industry or people who only say that they care about risk that but
really don't or even people who don't know what they're doing and get lucky and manage to raise a lot
more money than they should have. So sometimes investments go bad and nobody did anything wrong.
It's just investments go bad. But the less information the public has, the higher the likelihood
that that's going to be an outcome. So that's one thing with alts. Another thing is obviously the higher
the fees, the higher the hurdle rate to actually make money. Like you have to, you buy something
that's extremely high fee. Like you first have to earn back what you just paid in fees before you
could even get to the point where you're in the black.
And then the third issue is the economy has an outsized impact on non-traded investments
where people like need liquidity no matter what and prices get crazy as a result of
having a lack of price discovery.
So alts, when they go wrong, can go really wrong.
And I want to share this story and I wanted to get your reaction to it.
there was a company called Yield Street
that has so thoroughly wrecked its reputation
that they had to change its name.
It's now called Willow Wealth.
But unfortunately, the investments that have gone bad
still have to report because they still exist
because this is part of being an alt.
It's not like a hedge fund that goes bad.
They just liquidate the fund and close it.
CNBC.com is reporting that they continue to report losses
to investor clients.
long after the name change, a new round of $41 million in losses from real estate deals
that are now in default. Yield Street launched 10 years ago, and their stated mission was to widen
access to alternative investments to Main Street. Anytime you hear that as the pitch,
you should grab your wallet. Nobody wants to democratize anything to anyone in real life.
So any time you hear, oh, we're doing this for Main Street, L-O-L, L-L, um,
Here's a quote.
As Yield Street tries to distance itself from a Iraqi past with a new name and ad campaign,
its customers are dealing with a present reality that is increasingly dire.
They lost money in real estate projects in Houston, in Nashville.
They had an $89 million wipeout in marine loans.
Are those boats?
I don't even, what do you think that is?
Individual investors should not be investing in marine loans, whatever in the world that is.
All right. So $89 million in loans disclosed in September, $78 million lost in a report in August. In total, according to CNBC, Willow wealth investors have lost $208 million.
So this Yield Street was a FINRA registered broker dealer and registered investment advisor, so as a hybrid, with $1.86 billion in client assets.
and they build itself on the website
as the leading alternative investments platform
and it's just
it's one of these things where people put money in
it's illiquid, we're not even in a recession
and these loans are going bad at a rapid rate
and now they've changed the name
they're trying to start over but it's not so simple
so these were real estate
the loans that went bad or the investments
that went bad were in real estate
which absolutely wasn't a recession
not excusing the fact
did you see their rebrand?
Do you know about Hampton Dumpty?
You know about Hampton Dumpty?
No.
Okay.
Do I want to know?
You do.
What is this?
Daniel, let's just play this, please.
You gotta see.
The name's Hampton.
I know, I know.
I look a lot more put together, right?
But hey, I've come a long way
from my Humpty days.
This is bad.
See, I've learned a thing or two
about crashes and falls.
Oh, bonfire.
Turns out you shouldn't put all your eggs in one basket.
Oh.
tempting. That's why I invest
with Willow wealth. Their
online platform makes it simple to diversify
my portfolio with private markets.
I get exposure to everything
from fine art and real estate.
Evocative, right?
Still got it. Two sports and
entertainment. Whoa, easy
there. Plus, portfolios
including private markets have outperformed
traditional ones for the past 20
years. Not that it's a competition.
Diversify your portfolio to help rise above.
of public market volatility,
another up your game.
Like me.
Those are no, no.
All right.
No, literally Hampton Dumpty.
Can you even?
No.
That's not AI.
That's actually their commercial.
That's like,
is this a joke?
Seriously?
Who is that?
Somebody said Wolf of Wall Street coded 100%.
The chat is going,
the chat is just losing its mind.
Humpty.
As for CNBC's reporting on the new real estate defaults and rising tally of losses,
the Willow Health Spokes spokeswoman called it, quote,
a rehash of news on investments from five years ago.
Like, why are you rehashing old losses?
Like just so what they were doing is stuck in it.
What they were doing is I understand it is they were making their own investments.
I'm not sure of anything.
I don't know if there was a third party source are involved in these real estate deals.
I have no idea.
But what they are doing now, they have pivoted to working with established brands like Carlisle and Goldman and Stepson are on their website.
So whatever they were doing, they stopped doing that for obvious reasons and are now doing something different.
But here's what irks me amongst the many things is they have a chart on their website.
Show this, please, John.
Daniel, excuse me.
Daniel's in the house tonight.
Growth of $100,000.
All right.
So here's a problem.
They show $128,000 over the past 10 years versus.
is a private markets portfolio. And when you view the disclosures, because I'm such a sleuth, Josh,
what I found was the private markets portfolio is 40% private equity from prequine, 30% private
credit, and 30% private real estate. No beef with that. Here's a problem. You can't invest in these
index is number one. And number two, financial indices assume the reinvestments of dividends.
And here's the coup de grace. Do not refer.
the impact of fees. Well, excuse me, excuse me, because according to CNBC's reporting,
those firms also charge their own fees. So talking about the other ones that I mentioned,
leading to all in annual costs ranging from about 3.3% to 6.7% per fund. Guess what? The numbers
don't look as good as they did with fees included. This much I can tell you. Thank you for your
attention to this matter.
I mean, is that, can you run that?
Can you, is that legal?
Just because you put a little, a little link that says C disclosures and then, and then it's
like a complete lie?
That seems, that seems absolutely insane to me.
It's disclosed.
It says you can't invest in the index and it, it discloses it.
I don't know if it's legal or whatever.
I'm guessing it's legal.
I don't know.
I'm not a compliance officer.
All right.
So what they're doing now is taking a 1.4% fee and they're, you know, it's, you
They're, thank God, giving the money to people that actually know how to invest.
Goldman Sachs, Carlisle, Stepstone Group.
Not that, that's a guarantee of anything, of course.
Well, they're not going to lose, what is it?
Did CBC report a third of the real estate loans or either in default or impair?
Goldman Sachs and Carlisle are probably not going to default by one third.
But so, I don't think so.
All right.
So now, so those fun, so now they are taking a 1.4% phase.
because they were great at marketing
with Humpty Dumpty commercials.
Hampton Dumpty, excuse you.
Right.
And they take your money
and they give it to these other funds
that are charging themselves, 3.3 to 6.7% per fund.
So how does anyone ever make money here?
I think it's obvious how you lose money.
Just wait a while.
But how do you even ever make money?
All right.
So again, this is not, let's just bash all.
I'm sure there are better versions of this.
I'm just making the point, if you don't know, then you don't know.
And this is the kind of thing that has happened to other people.
And you could lose money in the public stock market really easily.
People do all the time.
You could lose money in publicly traded bonds.
People lose money in public reeds.
100%.
But it's different to have like defaults and wipeouts and be charged.
up the ass while you wait for that potentiality.
That's a whole different dimension of risk
that is very different from losing money
in public markets.
And I think, look, it's not to say,
oh, this is every alt.
It's just to show people what a really bad,
like worst case scenario could be.
Yeah.
So that's unfortunate.
So it's bad.
All right, we are up to make the case time.
We're coming into the home stretch.
I'm excited to talk to you about this
because we haven't talked about it in a while.
Let's put up a long-term chart of Salesforce.
This is 10 years.
Stock's in no man's land right now,
sort of in the middle of the range,
although inflecting slightly higher in the last week,
which I'll tell you why in a moment.
Here's a one-year technical chart.
You would not buy this stock with your money
or anyone else's money.
If you could help it, doesn't mean, you can't go up.
I don't think it's that bad of a chart.
I mean, it's not great.
It's not, we've seen where worse.
Let me guess.
You like these bounces off of $2.25?
I don't own the stock.
But I'm saying, dude, we've seen way worse stocks.
I guess what I'm saying is if you're going to buy the stock, it's not because of the chart.
Is that fair?
Right.
That's not a, that's not a, that's not a, that's not a, a green light in and of itself.
The reason why the stock's starting to bounce here looks like it could bounce here.
Value Act capital.
which is one of the most successful activist hedge funds ever,
just added $25 million worth of stock this week.
So they now have, they bought, I think they bought 96,000 shares,
adding to an existing war chest of stock.
They now own 2.994 million shares,
which is not, in the scope of the size of Salesforce,
that's not that big of a position,
But it is a big position in dollar terms.
They have a lot of money in Salesforce, and they're adding to it.
And the reason why this is notable is that the last time Value Act came into the name in size,
they actually got someone on the board, and the stock had almost 100% rally inside of a year
as a result of changes that they forced at Salesforce.
So Value Act is not one of these.
activists that comes in and starts like looking for press attention and saying horrible things
about the CEO, they tend to come in and want to work with the board and work with the company.
They try to point things out that they think can be fixed.
And that's, that's their, that's their, that's their, that's their MO.
And it's been successful.
They've had a ton of big hits.
But they've been buying the stock back.
It looks like since.
So the, the last.
time they came in was late 2022, which was also a bottom for the tech market. And early
2023, they revealed their stake in January of 2023. Value Act's co-CEo, CIO, Mason Morfitt,
was added to the board. And in June, they bought even more. They bought 428,000 shares,
$100 million worth. And that was at $233 a share. They got up to almost 4 million shares. And the
stock spent the stock had rallied huge in in 23 and they i guess trying to make it happen again um this time
it hasn't happened and so they're adding to it they're buying more but you did get an 85% rally
the first time the first go round the other thing that's notable michael is like last time
this time there are other activists coming into the stock at the same time starboard value
which was also in it for that last go round they are they are they are
have just increased their stake by 50%.
So they own 1.3 million shares as of June 30th.
And maybe that number's gone higher since.
So Starboard is back.
Value Act is adding.
They have board representation.
The last time they got aggressive in buying into the stock, they were able to help the
thing almost double.
And I think it's notable they've come back to the name.
What are your thoughts?
Did you buy the stock?
no i just bought adobe i can't have two of these pieces of shit on the books at the same time same
story though if people people think people think sales force is uh being disrupted by i or about
to be disrupted by i and maybe it will be but a lot of times these are these are overstated
risks that these companies find a solution to yeah not always it could be polaroid i'm just
i'm just i'm just saying it's usually not polaroid it's not polaroid it's not codex
not Polaroid. All right. So Salesforce has obviously been dearest. The recent bounds notwithstanding,
nobody's bullish on this. Uh, sales force is not Polaroid. Um, but I do think that their business
model is certainly under pressure and it's not going to, it's not going to go away. Whereas
a company like Adobe, um, I was talking to somebody this week actually who, uh, about this, who's a big
Adobe user. I think that Adobe has a much better chance of integrating AI into their workflows,
whereas I think that Salesforce is going to be under assault by AI solutions that do Salesforce
solutions better than they do. Okay. So Adobe's story is that they're going to sit on top of the
AI and give their paying professional users access to the best possible versions of how AI
can assist them in their workflows. Correct. That's their story.
I don't know if the street is buying it, but the stock seems to have stopped going down.
Well, they report tomorrow, which is why I bought it.
They report tomorrow as well.
That's right.
So we're long.
We didn't have time to do a whole deep dive preview into that.
And I don't know the company well enough.
I can tell you I have a stop loss in.
And if they actually report AI negative impact or they guide lower or whatever, I'll get stopped out.
I'll lose money.
But I'm not married to Adobe.
The story on Adobe is buybacks and shrinking.
the float and the stock having been substantially de-wist.
It's in a 50% drawdown from its high.
Yeah.
Salesforce, look, what's so, here's a funny about this.
When Value Act and Starboard, and by the way, what's Dan Loeb's fund called, third
point, third point, they were all in Salesforce in late 22, early 23.
And the story was that Salesforce was spending like a drunken sailor.
they were like they just had too much bureaucracy too many employees too much corporate bloat um
and and that was like the way to fix it and they bought into that whole year of efficiency
thing like they like benny off followed zuckerberg's example and it worked that ain't
going to fix it this time right i don't think the street is selling i don't think the street has
gotten bearish on sales force because of expense management i think they pulled that lever already
no it's the business model this time right the fix
this time is more difficult because it's innovation and obsolescence risk.
I mean,
that's like not the same as cost cutting.
We're talking to companies in our space that are doing a lot of the automation
workflows with better technology.
That's not going away.
Just started.
Right.
No, I guess the question is, does Salesforce, is Salesforce able to hold on to its
customers and maybe even potentially charge more because they become the AI?
provider? Certainly conceivable. Or do they get better margins because they're using AI?
Certainly conceivable. We're not be shocked if that's the war that we're living in, where they just,
they just use AI to make their shit better. All right, I have a mystery chart. I sort of didn't make,
I sort of didn't make the case. But what I did, I think, is I'm putting this name on people's
radar for two reasons. One, the pessimism about their AI strategy and the threat from AI may be
overstated. It's not like the stock is at a tie. So that's, so that's one. I think the market is
very well aware of that risk. And then two, this is a tax loss selling candidate where people
are just unloading it into year end. And oftentimes those are great bounce candidates in
January. But you got to get positioned early because you don't know when the sellers are done.
So it's early, what is December 9th? So putting this name on your radar December 9th because you might
get to a point where the tax loss related selling becomes exhausted, and then you get this air pocket
where the stock could lift.
Yeah.
I'm not saying it will.
I'm just saying it's very possible with a name like this.
This is a very big company and still financially very successful.
And there is a big gap at 430 just waiting to be filled.
So at 433, either way.
Okay.
Anyway, on your radar.
I have a mystery chart for you.
This is in a sector.
that is, was strong to quite strong.
I'm probably going to give this away.
This sector was the weakest, had a sick run,
and just really rolled hard the last couple of sessions,
and I'm not sure why I don't pay much attention to it.
This is a stock in the sector that I don't know if you still own or not.
We haven't talked about the stock in a while,
but you did own it at one point.
Try it on, please.
This is a long-term view.
That's a 200-day moving average.
The price is above it, but obviously, that's not pretty.
It's the last three years.
I'm sorry, this is, this is not the sector.
This is the actual stock.
This is a stock.
Next chart, zoom in a little bit.
Not so bad.
Not so bad.
The I see higher lows.
That's what I see.
What stock is this, Josh?
$26 stock.
The chat is guessing Pfizer.
And I think that would be the only one that would make sense.
The chat is right.
Phone your friends.
great job chat love you chat much love to the chat all right um dude what's what's up with
healthcare healthcare is rolling hard the last 10 sessions it's very bizarre they rotate in they rotate out
i know but i i would not have got i would not have guessed fyser i threw in the towel in this name
very early this year so it's been a long time i don't i don't follow it anymore i don't really care
for it um they made this massive investment they made this
massive bet, a huge M&A deal, and they just, they have nothing to show for it a year later.
And it was kind of like a bet the company proposition.
It was like a huge dollar value.
And the idea was that it would strengthen the company's pipeline.
And maybe it is and maybe it will, but the street is not giving it any credit.
And there were huge winners in this sector.
And there are GLP1 names and their oncology names.
and there are like there are lots of great biotech stocks this year and this is just not one of them
in fact it's one of the worst and you know i don't i'm not a value investor i don't really do that
it's not my discipline number one it doesn't suit my personality i'm not patient me either i i i despise
being completely on the other side of everybody i know for for prolonged periods of time um
I do tend to believe there's wisdom in crowds, and I think stocks that are going up are a better
source of finding stocks that will go up.
So that is not my discipline.
And sometimes when I become a dilettante in that area, and I kind of dance in and do a little
value investment, sometimes it might pay off, but like not systematically it will not pay.
So like I was bullish Warner Brothers at $6.
And I sold it too early.
It's $30.
It was $27 right now.
Like that was a quote unquote value investment in that time.
But for every one of those that I could cite that I would have been right on or whatever,
like there's many more Pfizer's where I would have been done wrong.
Yeah.
So nice, nice mystery chart.
All right, guys, we're going to wrap up for tonight.
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Tomorrow is Wednesday, which means you're getting an all-new edition of Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben.
We'll have an Ask the Compound with Ben and Duncan.
And then Michael and I will be back with a massive.
It is massive.
It is massive.
What am I supposed to say?
Talking wealth.
You have a big,
you have a big episode dropping tomorrow for advisors that are listening.
Check it out.
Oh, shit.
You know what?
That's right.
If you're a financial advisor and you like the compound,
you're going to love talking wealth.
And we're dropping a bombshell tomorrow.
We had some research that we did internally.
And I can't wait for you to hear what you have to say.
All right, that's it.
We love you.
We'll see you soon.
Thanks again.
Have a great night.
You know,
