The Compound and Friends - Momentum

Episode Date: August 4, 2023

On episode 104 of The Compound and Friends, Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown are joined by Joe Terranova and Mark Fisher to discuss: what it takes to be a trader, the energy sector, commodities, the US downgrade, treasuries, and much more! Thanks to Birddogs for sponsoring this episode! Go to http://www.birddogs.com/thoughts or enter promo code THOUGHTS for a free Birddogs hat with every order. Check out the latest in financial blogger fashion at The Compound shop: https://www.idontshop.com Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Josh Brown are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. Wealthcast Media, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information. Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here: https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

My wife said Catalina yesterday on the beach with her friends, and there's a commotion. Yeah. They all get this email from the company that ships the trunks for the kids at camp. Yeah. You know, like the truck comes, picks up everyone's trunk three days before camp. Right. And then it brings the trunks home. It's like separate from the camp.

Right, right. And you pay them a fee, and like everyone pays them separately from the camp. So they sent out an email and said, we are winding down operations and sorry, but no, we're not delivering your kid's trunk home from camp. So this is like, uh, tens of thousands of households who have kids in sleepaway camp, like all of a sudden, well, how am I getting my kids shit home? So everyone's panicking. And I I'm on the phone with, uh, I'm on the phone with her and she's not panicking. And her friends are like, why aren't you freaking out about that?

She's like, idiots. You know that before this trucking company came along, they just like would hire a truck and bring the trunks. It's going to be okay. They don't want your shit up there forever. Why did the trucking company wind down a week before camp is ending? Was this Yellow Truck? They're owned by the subsidiary of yellow. So I said I couldn't have put two and two together.

I didn't have any inside info on this one, but yellow filed for bankruptcy, I think, earlier this week. Okay. Anyway, so everything's— How about what happened at Winnetou? What happened? I don't know. Is it bad? Don't say it on the mic if it's bad.

Okay. Really bad? I don't know. Is it bad? Don't say it on the mic if it's bad. Okay. Really bad? I don't know. Okay. So, Mark, Joe asked if I ever met you. And I did. 15 years ago, maybe? I was a waiter at Mezzanotte.

You know you could be his son, right? Well, listen. So, I was a waiter. Like, I'm just saying. At Ex Mateos, when I turned to Mezzanotte, I was a waiter there. So, I was also telling Joe I'm Broadway yeah yeah I went to prom with your son not as a date don't worry you went to Hewlett uh no I had a girlfriend in Hewlett who uh I'll tell you off mic but uh so I went to prom with

your son what do you mean like in the same limo yeah in the same limo? Yeah, in the same limo. Okay. This is, I don't know. How old am I? I'm 38, so this is like 20 years ago. 20 years ago. Yeah. 2003.

What do I do with this? Put it on your head. Okay. I mean, I'm going to check. So the reason why is so you could hear yourself talk. So if you're like this,

you're like, oh, I got to get closer to the mic. Hold on one second. I got to tell Rob to do something. Are you worried about your hair? I mean, if I put it on my head, you can put it on your head.

How was that? Terrible. You ever try, what did I drink earlier? The peach thing that was good? Rob, did we get stopped at? You ever drink the Izzy? No, what is it? Very good. Yeah, very good. It's heavy sugar.

Oh, I don't want that. Right where we fell in, right? I just ate that custard thing. That was good. It's good, right? What's the name of it again? One more time. Pastel Janata.

Pastel? Janat. Janat. Janata. Janata. Good shit. Better Janata. Say that again.

Yeah, they're all over Portugal. They're incredible. All right, I'll call you back later. We didn't talk about this. How was your trip? It was great, thank you. Yeah? Yeah.

What'd you do there? Spent most of the time out of the Azores. Okay. Very, like, Hawaii-esque atmosphere. Very floral, lush, mountainous. Did you ever go to the place where the biggest surfing wave ever from HBO? I didn't make it. Next time.

Anybody watching the Deep Breath documentary? I started Quarterback. Did you watch Quarterback? Yeah. Watched all of it. It was fun. You watched the whole thing? You're going to love Kirk Cousins.

I was going to say, he seems like the most normal one. Yeah. He's like the guy that you root for. Not in real life. I don't root for Kirk Cousins. Not on the field, but on the show. You're going to go on a roller coaster ride with Mahomes. You're going to watch it, and you're going to be like, eh, with Mahomes.

But then at the end… He's kind of annoying. But at the end, when you see, when he plays… I mean, yeah. And that championship gets… Then you love him. You're like, wow, this guy's… Does it seem like he's not…

Oh, that was very cool. Yeah. Does it seem like he's not living commensurate with the money that he's making? Oh, yes, he is. You see his house? It doesn't seem like that big of a deal. You didn't get to he's making? Oh, yes, he is. You see his house? It doesn't seem like that big of a deal. You didn't get to the new house. No, no, no.

Google his house right now. I didn't watch the whole series. They build a new house towards the end of the quarterbacks. What is his contract? $500 million? Yeah. He should have a bigger house is all I'm saying. Dude, he just built it.

Where's Catalina? Is that halfway? It's right next to Silver Point. Atlantic Beach. Someone's going to take Silver Point, that whole area? Yeah, that's the end. What is Silver Point? They're going to make that.

National Academy is going to sell that, and the developer is going to build like 20 Hampton House houses and make a zillion dollars. They should. Did you see the article in the Post about Atlantic Beach? Was that funny to you when you saw it? You know, that's Seth. Wow.

Seth has a big house there. Atlantic Beach is nice, but there's no restaurants. There's nothing there. There's one's no restaurants. There's nothing there. There's one. Beginnings. There's nothing there. You have to bring your food. You know, somebody that grew up there told me in response to that article,

said, you know, there's no gas station. So what do you mean? He said, they want you in and out. They don't want anyone hanging around. There's no convenience stores. There's no gas station. There's not even a gas station in West Long Beach. Right, but they don't want people

coming to Atlantic Beach and hanging out. I agree. When they had all the protests, they raised the bridge. Yeah, I could see that. I could see that. All right.

Guys, how are we doing? Close. Just a minute. Okay. So, how long do you stay up here for the summer? We're all over the place.

Okay. You're in the city a lot while you're up here? A couple days. You don't have that much to do here, right? I have an office, but I hate it. I hate this city. It's annoying. I hate this city. That's why I'm never here. It's the worst. Why would I want to be here?

Joe's in. I hate this city. Really, it's a joke. Where did your office used to be? Were you in Broadway downtown? It was in World Financial Center. Now we're in the water over there? Okay. And now we're at 120 Broadway.

Yes. Is this better? But you did the city five days a week for your whole career, no? Yeah, until about 15 years ago. That was fun. Limo rides with Oscar. Limo rides with Oscar. Limo rides with Oscar. Then we lost it in the World Trade Center.

The first World Trade Center, bro. So what do all those people do out there? Work. Work. It's all part of the RIA? Traders, financial advisors, compliance. We're doing a mock audit today. We have a mock, financial advisors, compliance. We're doing mock audit today.

We have a mock audit going on with compliance. So, our outside auditing firm is sitting with our CCO and just going through what we're doing.

I have traders out here. I have financial planners. Not traders like you think of traders. Not prop traders. Traders, execution brokers

no brokers no brokers we're not we're not uh we're not series seven we're not finra we're all advisory so no no brokers so you get paid on rap fees only only fee based so but it's not deductible right deductible from what not anymore no more no no's not deductible, right? Deductible from what? Not anymore. Not anymore. No, no, no. Not deductible. No. Oh, they changed it. Ready to go? Wait. Just let those two guys in when they come. Whenever they get here. Alright.

John, welcome back. What show is this? Thank you very much. Episode 1A. Alright. The Friends, episode one. All right. Welcome to The Compound and Friends. All opinions expressed by Josh Brown, Michael Batnick, and their castmates are solely their own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any

investment decisions. Clients of Ritholtz Wealth Management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. Today's show, it's a compound of friends. It's brought to you by Bird Dogs. It's summer. It's Bird Dog season. I'm rocking Bird Dogs all over the place, Duncan, I got to tell you. At the beach, not at the beach, everywhere. They've got these khaki shorts, they're stretched you ever hear of a company called Lululemon

bird dogs are better and more affordable I also got this sick dad hat what do we call this material nylon, it breathes looks good, feels good if you want your own dad hat, I'm calling it a Michael

dad hat, go to birddogs.com slash compound and enter promo code compound for a free white tech dad hat. Oh, it's a white tech dad hat. Okay. That works. Again, that's birddogs.com slash compound. Welcome to the Compound and Friends, episode number 104. My name is Downtown Josh Brown, and we have a very special show for you. John is back from his vacation. Duncan is here. Duncan, say hello. Hello, everyone.

Nicole is here. Rob is here. And two very special guests. But first, my co-host, Michael Batnick. Michael, say hello to everyone. Hello, hello. All right. You want to do the intros today?

You want me to do it? I don't want to talk about it. Okay. Returning to the show, Joe, how many times have you been on the show? Twice? Not enough. Not enough times. That's true. One virtual, one in studio. Alright, everybody loves Joe Terranova. Joe is the Chief Market Strategist and Senior Managing Director

for Virtus Investment Partners. Joe, remind everybody, Virtus is one of the largest asset management firms in the country, publicly traded. Correct. How long have you been there?

2008. Okay. 165 billion AUM, ticker symbol VRTS. 165 billion AUM? 165 billion AUM. They should just let you trade that. They should just let you whip that around

a few weeks, right? Ridiculously undervalued. Only in earnings season, right? Right. All right. Mark Fisher is here. Mark has not been on the show before. Mark is a living legend.

Do people call you that? You are, though, a little bit. Well, it's good that he's living, but I'm not a legend. No, no, no. Mark is a living legend to me. Mark is the founder and CEO of MBF Trading, which is an independent energy trader. And you've been trading 40 years. Is that right?

Is it that long? No, more. More than 40 years. When did you start trading? I started working when I was 13. 13? Yes. I started trading when I was 18 for my grandfather, 21 for myself.

So it's 40-something years. And you've always been trading for yourself? Yeah. Never worked for anybody. Never? Never. Okay. You And you've always been trading for yourself? Yeah. Or? Never worked for anybody. Never? Never. Okay.

Started with your bar mitzvah money? No, I started with the money I got paid from my first boss when I was 14. Well. What was that?

First job when you're 14, what were you doing? So my neighbor, my neighbor, I kept seeing him come home with nicer and nicer cars. I banged on his door and he turned out to be

the broker for the hunts in silver. Oh, so you guys, so you traded commodities for? Silver. Yeah, so I was trading, that was it. and banged on his door and he turned out to be the broker for the Hunts in silver. Ooh. So you traded commodities for silver. Yeah. So that was it. That's like a Wolf of Wall Street

where Jonah Hill goes, you make how much? I'll quit my job right now. But I was in school. I went to a Jewish day school. While I was in school, I was doing that. Then I was supposed to go

to Brown Sixth Year Med School. Said, what am I going to kill somebody? Went to Wharton. Was in the five-year submatric program. Had a good friend of mine who took the notes. I just kept the last two years

and just took all the tests and that was it. So when you started trading, did you start on the NYMEX? No, COMEX. COMEX. Okay. What's the difference

between the COMEX and NYMEX for people that don't know? COMEX is where all the metals trade. Silver, gold, copper. Okay. NYMEX is where all the oils trade. Okay. But at copper. Okay. Nymex is where all the oil straight. Okay. But at some point,

you moved from one to the other. Right. Okay. Why did you switch from one to the other? More opportunity. So say more. Oil was just a much bigger market. Okay.

What year is this? Is this 80s already? No. Early 90s. Early 90s. So how did you get started with metals? Like why not stocks or anything else? Because my boss, he was on the Comex floor, and that's where I started.

And that's where silver was. Oh, silver. That's where we started. A lot of people that are in the industry now started on Comex that you wouldn't think of. Really? Yeah. Ready? Yeah.

On the Kamiya's exchange floor, there was four exchanges. Comex, Nymex, Cotton, and Sugar, right? On that floor, that's where Paul Jones started. That's where Louis Bacon started. Monsters. Monsters. Gary Cohn. Gary Cohn.

Was it Lloyd Blankfein? Was it Commodities Trader also, but for Goldman? It was upstairs. That was J. Aaron. It was upstairs, guys. Yeah, that was J. Aaron. That was Jay Aaron. Those are upstairs guys. Yeah, that was Jay Aaron. That was the commodities owner. Okay.

Did trading metals to start your career teach you things that you would not have otherwise learned had you started in bonds or stocks or anywhere else? Because silver back then was the most volatile thing they were around. It's like, do you want to start at a table where it's, you know, no limit? That's basically where you started.

Yeah. And the intraday volatility made, you know, it was like. So if you didn't risk manage, you could lose your career in a day. If you didn't risk manage, you did lose your career in a day. So you're trading futures for yourself. Yes. I was one of the largest locals in the silver pit. And then I migrated over to trade energy.

But if you didn't manage yourself, you were dead. So who was on the other side of your trades back then? I don't know. Funds, brokers, everybody. But, but again, it was learning how to, you know, it's like, it's like learning how to manage your chip stack. It's really no different than playing poker to some degree. So what do you, what do you think your, what do you think your edge was where you kept going while a lot of other

people washed out? Was it the risk management or was there something else? Risk management, discipline, luck. And when I was in college, I developed a trading model that we still basically use today that all my guys use that we started out with called ACD. And we basically blew that up and that's what we use also. There's not a lot of inputs into trading like metals market in terms of like fundamentals, right?

Is it mostly price or is it news flow? Like what drives prices? I'm sure there's a lot of uh inputs into trading like metals market in terms of like fundamentals right is it mostly price or is it news flow like what drives i'm sure there's a lot of fundamentals but the problem is with fundamentals is whatever someone in the you know on the floor would know about it would be seeing the next paper five days later right so what's the point okay so you so you end up meeting joe and this is this is the story i want to start off with i've known known Joe. Joe is like a little bit of a mentor to me. And I've told him this. He's like a big brother to me. Joe has been looking out for me since we first met.

We had a lot in common, both from Long Island, both ridiculously handsome. No, but we vibe. We like a lot of the same people. I think we think the same about markets, the behavioral side, uh, and, and focused on the way people act versus what they say. So we have a lot of that in common. And I always reference him as somebody that's been like a mentor to me, but he always references you.

So the story I want to start with it and Joe will, Joe will always say, I learned this from Mark or Mark told me that for the first time. So he looks up to you in the way that I look up to him. So that's where I want to, that's what you got is Pepsi. Yeah. Bring in the Pepsi. Good man. Good man.

Guys, just stay right there. So that's what, that's where I want to start. Who wants to tell me the story of how you guys met and started working together? Okay, Joe. Joe will do it. So I went to Chaminade High School. Got out of Chaminade High School. We're never

going to get done. We'll be here for two years. So, my dad basically said to me, why are you sending in applications to prestigious schools? You're wasting money. I can't afford to send you there. We have one car. You and your sister have to go to St. John's University. Okay, not Jewish. Can we just start? Valley Stream, Long Island. Okay, let's start there. We have one car. You and your sister have to go to St. John's University. Okay. Not Jewish. Can we just- Totally. Let's start there. Right. Valley Stream, Long Island.

Okay. Let's start there. So I go to St. John's University, come out of college. I'm a tie-in from St. John's University. I go to JP Morgan. What do they immediately say? How long is this show? What are we at? Two hours? The backdoor entrance is that way. Okay. St. John's, tie-in kid, you're not going in the front door. So I worked at JP Morgan. I worked at Swiss Banking Corp. Wait, what does that mean, the back door? Is that metaphorical?

Like, what are you talking about? It's just you don't have the opportunities that someone from a prestigious university got. Your name's not Chet. Right. Right. Chet. Chet. Okay.

So I go to Swiss Banking Corp. And unfortunately, we did well on the trading desk. We make like $6 million a year. We get a $3,000 bonus at the end of the year. I'm like, that math doesn't end up. So I left. I quit. Ended up going into the five towns.

There was a physical fitness studio. Mark was one of the clients. And me along with three other guys that I was friends with from the five towns. They knew nothing about working out. I did. I was an athlete. I met Mark in the gym, started working out with Mark. Mark looks confused.

That's not how he remembers it. Keep going because I didn't work out. I like to job around. We kind of hit it off and he invited me down to the floor and the rest of it's a story, I think, right? What did you see in Joe that made you think, let me get this guy out of the floor and the rest of it's a story, I think. Right. What did you see? And what did you see in Joe that made you think, let me get this guy out of the gym and show him what I do. So one of the things that I can do is I could tell within 10 minutes that someone can make

a trade or not. Really? Yeah. Without even watching them trade, just watching what, what are you watching? There's four steps to the decision-making process. Collecting data, analyzing, deciding, implementing. If you're good at that four steps, right, and you're quick about it, you can make it. For instance, I always tell you the story of I had two guys work for me. One guy was a graduate of Harvard Law School, graduated second in his class.

And another guy is an ice cream truck driver in Lank Beach. And the ice cream truck driver, I saw 50 kids go with to him and go, I want this, this. And he would just keep track of everybody. At the same time, who ended up making $50 million trading commodities? The ice cream man. Ice cream man, not the Harvard trader. And I saw that Joe had that same process. The difference between

a trader and a doctor is if you do this process as a trader and you get good at it, okay, the worst you do is you lose money. If you do this process too fast, you're going to kill somebody. So obviously it's a different thing. But I can recognize people that can actually have that skill set. And that skill set is the most important thing to do.

I mean, it sounds like it boils down to like, I don't want to say the word hustle because that cheapens it. say the word hustle because that cheapens it but it sounds like somebody who is it's almost like hand-eye coordination but keeping organized mentally and remembering things that just happened two seconds ago and doing things in the right order i like to say are you the point guard or you the power forward the power forward is not making a trading the point guard is but what about personality because a lot of this game is mental obviously you need to be able to think and analyze but sometimes you're your own worst enemy. Everyone's their own worst enemy. That's the whole thing.

You know, if you see a guy every Monday morning come in, we used to have people come in Monday, first of all, and lose money every Monday morning. And then I would go to him and say, when are you getting divorced? It's all about how well you can manage yourself and how well you can manage, you know, your life. The problem with trading for, you know, like I have guys, the problem with trading even today

is unlike a business that you guys grow, when you trade the amount that we trade and you're making and losing an insane amount of money in a couple of minutes. Think about when Josh goes to a store. There's one shirt that's $80, another shirt that might be Josh, $180, $200. I mean, because he doesn't buy $80 shirts anymore.

But back then, $80 or $58, that's real money. Except when you're trading, you're making and losing thousands of dollars in seconds. You're going, what the? What do I care? The mind takes over and says, what's $22? I just lost $22,000 in 30 seconds. That's the biggest hangup with traders, how you manage. You're saying they think about dollars at risk in a trading account.

They conflate those with like their own money. They don't do it on purpose. No, I know. They do it subconsciously. I think you lose the value of a dollar when you see that the amount of money that's made or lost on a trading floor in a given day. No, it's not in a given day, in a given second. It's not that, I mean, there are hundreds of businesses

that you make a significant amount more money, but there's very few businesses where you make or lose it so quickly. Well, you know what? It seems like all the big blowups seem to happen in the futures market because of what, leverage? Like you don't hear about equity hedge funds blowing up.

Yeah, you do. I mean, you do. No. But to zero, like quickly, like natural gas traders, for example, it feels like it always happens in the futures markets. I think that's a generalization. I think you may hear about it,

but there's been a lot of blowups in hedge funds too. And there's been a lot, look at all the bank blowups. Look at, you know, again, you hear about it, you know, but the hardest thing for a trader to do is risk manage himself. That's why for myself, when I trade, I don't execute myself. I have someone execute for me.

Otherwise, I'd be like this all day. Well, what does risk management mean to you? To me? Yeah. Number one, making sure where am I getting at if I'm wrong. If I have no idea where I'm getting at, I'm not getting in. Okay? Why am I making the trade?

Right? What's the probability of success? Right? You know, how many trades am I making just because I'm bored versus how many trades I'm making because of the real trades? Right. Is everyone else thinking the same way I am? If everyone else is thinking the same way, I'm not doing it. It sounds like it requires a lot of self-awareness and you almost have to like psychoanalyze your own actions during the course of the day.

Yeah. To like catch yourself and say, wait, why am I doing this trade? Right. How many, how many years can you do that before either you figure out, okay, I do belong doing this or it like drives you crazy. Like it's, it would seem like most people are not cut out for that level of self-reflection every day, but it's like required because you're taking risk. The problem is that with traders, I could usually tell within six months whether someone's made an effort, but the problem is that things happen. They get married. Was it the right person? Then

they have a child, that whole thing. Then they buy a house. Then someone significant to them, a father, mother passes away, or there's another thing. All these different things impact them in a lot of ways. They won't tell you. A dog dies. Weird things happen, and it affects people in the way they operate. I can't tell you how many people I've been to that traded with me that I've been to the psychiatrist.

What are some signs that things are going wrong in their personal life? It's like over-trading, for example? Yeah. Trading just because they're letting out their frustration in their own lives. Or boredom, as the case may be. In their own lives. So the way that you run MBF now, tell the audience a little bit about the structure of the firm

and what kind of trading that you're doing and how you're overseeing it? Now it's easier because it's all on the computer, right? Okay. Right. And we have 30 something traders, right? And it's managed the same way. So some degree it's easier because it's all computerized. When Joe was in the risk management, think about the trading pits. Yeah. So we ran two businesses back there. One was the traders in the pits. And two, I was the insurance of the clearing firm for a lot of the trades that we didn't do. That was the greatest business because I would insure your trades. And I got a little smidgen every time.

I was like the house without doing anything. But in terms of managing back then when it wasn't computerized, who knew what was going on? And so you'd always be delayed. So it would be putting out like Joe was like a fireman. You were doing a P&L like by hand. It's crazy. And so you'd always be delayed. So, you know, it'd be putting out like Joe was doing a PNL like by hand. It's crazy. And then you wouldn't even know if it would, and then people would hide their PNLs and high trades. You would find out there was a trade.

Yeah. I mean, it was craziness, right? But now it's much easier to do it. You've got 30 traders. Is this their money? Your money?

How does this work? Investors money? No, no investors. It's either my money or their money, but no outside partners. It's just us. Okay. How come?

Because we don't need it. Okay. We trade big enough. We trade as big as the market is. First of all, number one, I don't want to answer anybody else. Number two, we don't need anybody else's money. If there's an opportunity, whether it's X, there's a position limit. We're going to trade to the limit we have to trade.

So do you see yourself as kind of a player coach? You have traders there. I'm a player coach. Okay. So you're trading, but then also they're probably coming to you and asking what you think. But I trade less. I now have an eight-year-old who drives me crazy. So I'm 62.

But the thing is, it keeps you young. Everyone says my eight-year-old keeps me young. My two things that keep me young is my eight-year-old and trading. And your 30 traders. Right. And the whole thing. There's obviously a baseline of intelligence that everybody needs to have to work for you. Yes.

But aside from that, just personality, how important is that? No. Versus the intelligence. I'd rather take someone who doesn't know anything. Because someone comes in with a bias, it's impossible to break them of it. Right? It's much easier to take someone who knows nothing and mold them than to take someone who thinks he knows everything.

So if somebody comes to you and they were a sell-side analyst covering oil stocks for 10 years. Because then everything that they think they know is going to infect what they're doing on the market that day. And the amount of information they think they have.

If you think about it, the futures market is the one market that hasn't traditionalized itself. How so? Why is that? Well, is it something that a retail investor is able to access in a product? They shouldn't. They shouldn't. You know why? Because the discipline that is required, the discipline is the common denominator. Forget about the intellect. If you don't have the discipline and the extreme discipline that's needed, you have zero chance in terms of being successful. Zero. So whenever you hear traders talk about discipline, a lot of times in the next breath, they'll

talk about somebody that just 10x'd in something. Can you have discipline and swing for the fences and, and have those types of home run trades or those two things like mutually exclusive and one that has nothing to do with the other? No, we've had not go. Well, we've had some trades. They've gone to home run trades, but when you start out with a single that you want to make into a double, and then you see in second base and you see it go, you just let it go.

Right. That's happened to us. Yeah. It happened to us in power. It happens to us in, you know, it has happened all the time. So you're not setting out for that. You're not sitting out to swing for a home run. Okay. So, so Mark showed me a video the other night. That's, that's remarkable. He eloquently described what it takes to be a trader.

And within that, he talked about volatility. So most people think of volatility. I know in the wealth management industry, everyone thinks of volatility and that's when- That's something to be hedged. You get the emotional imbalance and people start doing the wrong things in their portfolio. The way he thinks about volatility is it's opportunity. He thinks of the volatility, he says, okay, this is when we increase our size limit, right? Okay. And so you're running the show.

You've got 30 traders. Do they all trade the same things? No. So some people are specializing in one thing versus another. Yeah. And we're now trying to find people that specialize in things, different things that we don't trade right now. Is it all futures?

90%. Okay. Can we talk about oil prices and energy stocks this year? What do you think? Oil prices? Well, let's start with this. Last year, energy stocks were like the only bright spot in the S&P. Oil prices went crazy during the invasion, obviously, in Eastern Europe. They stayed up for most of the year.

obviously in Eastern Europe. They stayed up for most of the year and every publicly traded energy company was able to come in with huge earnings gains because it was year over year versus 21, which was horrible. Okay. So that came and went and a lot of money was made. This year, it hasn't been as easy. Energy, I think is negative on the year, 1% or so as a sector of stocks. Crude is back at the April toward close to the April highs, high 70s. How do you see the setup from here given everything that we've gone

through in the last couple of years? I don't know anything about stocks. Good. Okay. You know what you know, okay? But in futures, it's been buy at 65, sell at 85. It's a range. It's a range. Okay. And now with Saudi Arabia flexing their wings, maybe it goes 70 bid at 90. Okay. Right?

Except for that doesn't mean what happens to the products. It means heating oil, gasoline, distillate. Like, distillate's been on a big, you know, gas has been a big move lately. Because the refined products can go anywhere because of lack of refinery capacity. Right? But the underlying product, you know, 70 bit at 90 maybe now.

So the floor is moving up? Yeah. Okay. Because you can tell Saudi is making the floor move up. Okay. Are they as powerful as that? More powerful. They're more powerful.

So they decide where the floor is going to be. No, you can just see they're more powerful. And look, the U.S. has run out of bullets, right? We've depleted the SPR, right? We've tried to talk Saudi down. I mean, there's a couple of black swans. Obviously, if there's a deal between Saudi, United States, and Israel, you know, the whole thing, then maybe part of it is, you know, they banned oil for a little while in terms of that whole deal.

If Saudi gets, you know, the NATO type protections, maybe that would go, you know, but, you know, there's another, you know, if there's an Israel-Iran conflict, you know, all bets are off. But in terms of, you know, 70 bid at 90, 65 bid at 85, but the individual products, the refined products can go anywhere. Here, it all has been on a tear, right? But to trading it, you got to know, except for the intraday day trading, where's the market? Right now, everyone's back to being bullish. You know, you go back two months ago, everyone thought, well, you know. It's amazing how price will do that. How do you incorporate sentiment into your overall analysis?

That's the best thing. That's the whole thing? Yeah. To me, I read everything. I read like, this sounds crazy, but I read like 10,000 pages a week. Okay?

What are you reading? What does that mean? I read everybody. Okay? I don't want to go into who everybody is, but everything. And I want to have a view

that's different than everybody. So below 70, everybody was like, this is the end of the world. Right? Now the New York Times is against, you know, it's back to banging the paper.

Everyone's negative on natural gas. Everybody thinks that this winter is going to be terrible. Nobody's long. The winter's going to be terrible, meaning it's not going to be cold enough? No, there's going to be too much supply, yada, yada, yada. And again, that may be the case. But between now and, let's say, a month from now or three weeks from now, when the index funds have to basically roll to the winter

and there's no natural seller, my bet is the price is going to go up. So that's what gets you excited when everybody thinks one thing. And they might be right, but oftentimes the price is already reflecting that.

Or, yeah, or the fact that they're not thinking. I happen to think differently. So you, so the trades might be shorter term, but you seem to have a longer term view directionally. Or you just have a sense of how far to one side the consensus is.

And how far – it's a bet. Like sometimes you make – like in the poker hand. You may play the hand. You may lose. But if it was 3 to 1, you're a favorite, and you're going to risk X, you're going to make the trade, right? So you might say maybe the market's right, but so what? I'm going to bet against it because if I'm right, the payoff is big enough that it's worth the risk. It's all expected value. Okay. So you can do that without being bullish or bearish per se?

Yes. Okay. And commodities, there's more statistical evidence that you could rely on. So there's a commitment of traders report. There's open interest statistics, which I know you look at. So think about it. Think about if you had open interest on an equity. You're not going to be able to grab that type of sentiment. Back in the day, we used to look at something. Remember the DSI? Yeah.

The daily sentiment indicator, which would tell you what percentage of individuals and traders that are looking at oil are bullish or bearish. So bullish would be above 90. And you would actually have DSI trades. You could measure sentiment a lot easier in commodities. So that sort of stuff is really important because I always say with stocks,

like, you don't necessarily know the odds, right? If you're betting on the Nuggets to win the finals this year because you think they're the best team, well, they're the favorite. You're not going to get

compensated for that sort of risk. In the stock market, you don't necessarily see the odds. You might have sentiment, anecdotal sort of things, but with what you're talking about, there is a way to sort of quantify

where everybody is. Yep. That's what I do. For example, this past, I mean, you talk about, what did you way to sort of quantify where everybody is. Yep. That's what I do. For example, this past—I mean, you talk about—what did you say? The Nuggets? The Nuggets. Before the season started, right? I bet the Orioles had 125 to 1 to win the World Series.

People say, you're throwing out your money. Okay, maybe I was, but I knew they weren't 125 to 1. Now they're 18 to 1. Yeah. Right? It's a huge long shot that nobody else— I bet on the Heat to beat the Celtics, not because I thought they were going to, but they were plus like 360.

Right. But the thing about trading is you have to be like, become the house where you have to bet small enough so that if you go through a bad streak, you're not going to lose all your chips. But you have to bet big enough that it matters, right? That's the hard part. You have to manage your chip stack, right?

And people don't do that. When something geopolitical happens, it's rarely out of nowhere probably for you because you're reading so much. But it does catch the market, you know, by surprise because most people are not focused on, for example, troops amassing around the border of Ukraine. Right. But I know people in the energy space know that that's going on and they know a lot of detail. So when something like that comes along, you almost have to now have a view on how long this conflict might last, how bad might it get?

What does it do to supply of natural gas? What does it mean, right? So being a participant in that market, you have to be a fairly worldly person and a generalist. Like you have to understand a lot or a little about a lot of things. Is that a good way to put it? Yes. But you also have to know what you know and know what you don't know.

Okay. The problem is that everyone thinks they know everything. Right. Okay. So you can't think you're George Soros in that moment, but you have to know what's going on. Right. Like to me,

and I'm probably going to be wrong, but the easiest trade is to be along with the agricultural acts, you know, corn, soybeans, wheat. Three reasons. One, Russia, if they shut off the Ukrainian last, last port, that's, that's is to be along with the agricultural acts, you know, corn, soybeans, wheat. Three reasons. One, Russia, if they shut off the Ukrainian last

port, that's going to be a debacle. Two, right, we're not growing anymore. There's no more farmland. Right? Three, if Africa wants to raise that level of wealth, you're going to do it through protein, which is

grains. Four, you know the biggest owner, who's the largest land owner of farmland in the United States? You should know this, Josh. Is it Berkshire Hathaway? Bill Gates. Bill Gates. Okay. Bill Gates is buying farmland. You want to go against him? It's like going against Warren Buffett and Oxy. I mean, I don't know anything about it, but why is he buying farmland? So directionally,

you think the ags have to... You don't want to be betting against them for a long period of time. And India is now restricting So directionally, you think the ags have to- And I think about that. You don't want to be betting against them for a long period of time. Right. And India is now restricting exports of rice in the last couple of years. I think about something else. Whenever oil goes up too much, although oil is really, if you look at it over the 10-year thing, it's really in real terms, it's down 30% because the price is going up.

You know, everyone claims OPEC. Yeah. Who are you going to blame for corn going up? Well, there's no OPEC of corn. There's no OPEC of corn. There's nobody, right? What are you going to blame? Orville up? Well, there's no OPEC of corn. There's no OPEC of corn. There's nobody, right? What are you going to blame? Orville Redenbacher.

Right, exactly. Hey, John, can we put this crude oil chart up real quick? Sure. Okay. Let's take a look at WTI. I guess this is one year. This has been a tough trade in a bull market. If you think about it, last October, stocks bottomed.

We've been straight up in NASDAQ ever since pretty much. Got a lot of stock sectors working since then, pretty much everything other than energy. And now all of a sudden, crude is back up at that resistance level from the spring. A lot of trap. Who knows? I can tell you, as a bet, whenever the Fed decides to stop raising rates and says, we're not going to go down, I would probably tell you that these commodities are going to go through the roof. Why? Because it's a natural bet for me.

Because all they've done is sort of like this interest rate rise has been put a Band-Aid on a wound. The minute they put it off, inflation is going to come right back. I'd also probably bet that within 48 hours from the time they stop raising rates, that's when the market is going to top out. It's all counter cyclical. You know the thing. Whatever makes sense never makes money. If it made sense, then everyone at Harvard would be multisignature. It's so obvious.

I do all these segments on television and the hosts, the hosts and a lot of the guests, it's always like, uh, it's like a bullish catalyst that the Fed's going to start cutting rates at some point or stop raising rates. And it's like, are you sure about that? Cause what would have to be going on for the Fed to be cutting rates all of a sudden? It's probably not going to be great. So, all right. So you think, um, so, so if you had to guess though, the second half of this year you think could be more constructive than the first half for oil, gas or not necessarily? 65 bit at 85, 70 bit at 90 in crude. Products could go anywhere.

Okay. Because there's no new refineries. So what happens to products depends on what happens to everything. So you're trading all the oil products, not just – Yeah, we trade everything. Natural gas and – John, next chart. Everything.

This is natural gas. This one's surprising to me. Why? I don't know. I guess I can't believe how cheap natural gas is relative to everything else that seems so expensive right now. It's supply. Think about what happened in Europe. In a warm winter.

supply. Think about what happened in Europe. In a warm winter. Do you know where natural gas was? TTF was? It was 10 bucks. 10 bucks? I'm saying a year ago. Where was European natural gas last winter?

It was like 40. Oh, European natural gas. Way higher. Okay, give me a number. What was it? 45? What? I don't know. Keep going. Higher. Come on. 55.

You're not even in the ballpark. All right, give it to me. What is it? It was over 120. Was it really? Yeah. Okay. And now it collapsed. And U.S. natural gas prices were what?

10. Yeah. And then, right? And everyone thinks that, you know, the reason why this year is going to happen is because there's no new LNG facilities being built yet. They've come online. We have extra supply, right?

The whole thing with, what was it? Freeport? Right? That whole, when they shut that down. This is a whole other thing. I have a conspiracy theory about Freeport,

but I won't say that on air. Freeport, Freeport. Yeah. When they shut down Freeport, you know. Not Freeport, Long Island.

No, Freeport, Long Island. No, no, no. Freeport, theeport. Yeah. When they shut down Freeport. Not Freeport, Long Island. No, Freeport. Not Freeport, Long Island. No, no, no. Freeport, the LNG thing? Yeah. What's the conspiracy? No.

Okay. Wait. What was going through your brain when oil went negative? Did you think that could ever happen? Yeah. Why? Because the CB told you it could happen two weeks before that. What did they say?

They said the prices could go negative. When someone tells you it could happen two weeks before that. What did they say? They said the prices could go negative. When someone tells you it could go negative, sort of like someone says you can maybe go, you know, right? Can natural gas go negative? Yes, it has gone negative. In different basis locations, natural gas has gone negative in different places all the time when supply gets constrained, different than the trading hubs.

When it goes negative, I mean, literally, is it what it says it is? People are paying to get rid of it? Yeah. Yeah. Think about this. Yeah. Sugar.

Sugar. I bought sugar one day. He was with me, right? This is just like, we're in the sugar pit, which is a whole other, you can write a story about the sugar pit, right, Joe?

You could. What year was this? Who the hell knows? Okay. We're in the sugar pit, and this is when the expiration of one of the contract months. It was January sugar, which was an off month.

And sugar was trading like two cents, 200 points. Let's call it 200. And someone had contracts to sell. And it was the last day. And he can't find the buyer. I said, screw it. I'm going to buy it. Right?

He sold me sugar at one tick. Okay. So Joe says, what the hell are you doing? I said, I'm going to buy the sugar at one tick. He says, what are you going to do with this? I don't give a shit. The bags have to be worth more than a tick. Okay. So Joe says, what the hell are you doing? I said, I'm going to buy the sugar at one tick. He says, what are you going to do with this? I don't give a shit. The bags have to be worth more than a tick. Forget the sugar. The bag has to be worth more than a tick, right? And some are worth a penny. And that was the start of the bull market. Sugar went from there to 25 cents. Things happen for crazy reasons, right?

You know, one of the things, just real quick on crude oil that everyone has to think about when you look forward, and I say this all the time when I meet with financial advisors, is the increase in domestic production of oil happened. Why? Because the cost of capital was zero. I was going to say fracking, cheap money. So all those wells were funded with free money. I don't know, is the cost of capital going back to zero? So if we need to significantly increase production domestically, I don't see the capital structure in place that you're going to be able to do that because you're not going to be able to fund the production at the wells anymore. Right.

So you had a great financial crisis. Interest rates went to zero. All of a sudden, you could fund all this fracking activity for almost nothing, which leads to none of them actually ever earning their cost of capital back. But so what are the implications of what you just laid out? I think it's tight supply for an extended period of time. So is that higher prices? Because at a certain point, Saudi Arabia reaches the cap for another, what, million

barrels? No, a lot more. A lot more? OK. Russia's basically at their cap. And here in the United States, we're prioritizing decarbonization. Unless you tell me the result of an election changes that, where does the extra supply come from? But it's more than that.

Think about if— You always got to one-up me. Go ahead. Why, has anything changed? It's the same thing for 20 years. I'm sorry. I'm not in a suit. I don't work for Virtus.

I don't hedge my bets. I'm not, I'm not in a suit. I don't work for Virtus. I don't hedge my bets. I'm not on TV. If 65% of our U.S. cars went electric vehicles, right? Because of what's going on in India and Africa, do you think our overall consumption of gasoline worldwide is going to go down in the next 10 years? No.

We're just going to get replaced as gas consumers by them. Right, by them. Not only that, do you think how much more carbon efficient are we producing energy in this country than doing it in Africa? So now what we're doing is we're taking and saying, we don't want to produce it here, not in my backyard, but we're going to allow it to take place in Venezuela, Ghana. You see what's going on in Ghana? Ghana has the biggest oil find there is in the past 10 years.

And they're just saying, boom. Think they're caring about the environment? No, I'm going to get someone from Ghana to call me up. But, right? So what we're doing is, what do we think? That if you pollute the environment in Africa or in Central America, that's not going to affect us here? Now, think about this.

I was talking to a truck driver the other day. Yes, I am French. Okay. So if electric vehicles and trucks, how far does a diesel truck go on a U.S. highway right now, Josh? How far? Per mile? No, on a full tank.

I don't know. 300 miles? Come on. What? More or less. I'm going to put you in a diesel thing with your friend. Yeah, I've never sat in a truck. But 850, 900 miles.

Oh, okay. I wasn't that far off. Just half. Just my half. He's not good at math either. I'm not good at math. This is what happens when you come from Barrett. When you come from Barrett.

But when you go ahead and you're in an electric vehicle diesel truck, you know, one of those trucks, how far does it go? Oh, I don't know. On one battery charge? 300 miles. It means the same truck has to stop three times? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Right?

Right. Right? Plus nobody, to your point, it's not just the fact that nobody wants to work anymore. Nobody wants to work in the oil fields. Nobody wants to, what's the coffee shop down the block from where you used to go to? Chateau?

Chateau. Do you know Chateau? Chateau and Woodmere? I got a mish last week. Okay, you know that, right? I call it Chateau. So I used to go to. Chateau? Chateau. Do you know Chateau? Chateau and Woodmere? I got a mish last week. Okay, you know that, right? I called Chateau. So I used to go there. I was in there seeing, I had to go to the doctor, see my mother.

I was over there. Okay, 7 o'clock in the morning. I'm going to go there, you know, have, you know, same breakfast. Yeah. It closed. So finally, open at 8 o'clock. I go, what's the deal? Nobody wants to work.

Nobody wants to be there. Nobody wants to work. Well, I have had this epiphany. I had to drive to newark airport last week my daughter landed from from europe took me three hours i'm looking around on the roads in long island queens to send me through brooklyn lower manhattan north jersey where are all these people going it's wednesday at 1 o'clock. Why is nobody at work? I really don't understand it, but I do understand it because people are just working from whatever they feel like. There's also more traffic because there's more accidents

because everyone's looking at their phone. What are you, Wynn's 1010? That's true. What are you talking about? I was going to give you the point from before. I was going to admit I was wrong and give you the point. You don't have to give me the point. You know the other thing about this is all the point. You don't have to give me the point.

But you know the other thing about this is all these transmission lines. People don't realize this. Forget about – I mean I'm not – is you have to connect the grid. So it goes by cables, right? You know what the backlog is in those cables now? If you want to order cables – To connect something to the utility. How long is it – throw those cables. How long is the backlog?

I don't know. 17 months. Try again. Okay. Four years. Four years. Okay. Where are we going?

Yeah. All right. So you have a lot of factors that are going to keep supply of not just oil. Can we keep demand? Keep demand high and keep supply low. Also, think about this. 15, 20 years ago, if you were a farmer and you had wheat, corn, and soybeans, you were stuck selling it locally, domestically.

Now, everyone tenders for it. Africa, India, everyone wants it, right? So are we growing? Is the amount of farmland, is the amount of productivity raising that much that we're going to go ahead and offset this increase in demand? No. How about if everyone's worried about the biggest commodity shortage, it's going to be water. You see what's going on with water, right? But no one can really trade water because there's no real way of- You can't trade it, but you can invest around water. And it's probably in a portfolio,

the most accessible commodity, but yet the most under-invested commodity is water. Okay. But for people that are not as smart as Joe, again, because I know everything about stocks, to me, then we go back in. Corn, soybeans, wheat. They all need water. They all need water. It's an input to everything. It's an input to everything. You can run out of it.

Clean water, too. Clean water, right? Okay. So structurally, you're bullish on commodities, not every day, every tick. No. But just generally speaking, we're not making more of these things. And think about this.

If you're a stock investor, what's the biggest hiccup you could possibly have? If there's a real water shortage, if food prices go through the roof, if heating oil prices and natural gas prices go through the roof, right? Yeah.

It filters through to every company. So when you buy car insurance, you buy car insurance because, well, you want to collect it, you buy it as a hedge. So most people who are listening to this who are not commodity traders should be looking at commodities as insurance. You buy it. You hope it goes nowhere. You don't make any money in the rest of your portfolio as well.

Because I guarantee you, if commodities go up a lot, the stock market, you're going to get killed. You see them as like negatively correlated. Yeah. Okay. Let's do this. John, let's put gold up. Here we go.

This is – Mark, this is a piece of shit of an asset class. Why isn't this 3,000? We printed so much money. Everyone all over the world. We flooded the economy with money. We had 9% CPI last summer. Nine. Okay.

Why is gold at $1,800, $1,900 still? I have no idea. All right. So you don't have to answer for it. But are you surprised by this? No, I have no idea. For as long as you've been trading futures, you've heard people say gold is an inflation hedge. And one day, you'll see all this Fed people say gold is an inflation hedge. Right.

And one day, you'll see all this Fed shit is going to result in inflation. Right. Well, here it is. Right. And gold is the same price it was in 2011. Right. I mean, that's like- It's not an essential commodity.

I don't know. All the commodities- I don't know either. I don't know. I'm just mystified by it. Yeah. But wait, you may have just said that. Now that you just said it, it'll probably go up $100 tomorrow.

But I have no idea. But all the commodities- I'm not sure. I have no idea. But all the commodities— I'm not sure. I have no idea. All the commodities he's talking about, agriculture, water, oil— Yeah, they're useful. They're essential commodities. Gold, it's not an essential commodity.

Where I come from, it is. You know what's going to happen? Where I come from, it is. All the gold bugs, okay? Yeah. Just listen to what Joe just said. Yeah. They didn't put that in the thing.

Watch. Tomorrow morning, you'll see gold doing a board ape thing and go up—and they'll blame it on Joe just said. Yeah. Put that thing. Watch. Tomorrow morning, you'll see Gold doing a Bored Apes thing and go up and they'll blame it on Joe. Okay. Yeah. I got two Jewish American princesses in my house. I promise you, Gold is an essential commodity. Overall, though, to his point. For my well-being.

Commodities are portfolio insurance. Think of it as crisis alpha. Okay. That's what it is. It's crisis alpha. Has it acted that way? You know, Gold went down on January 6th. I find it to be useless, honestly. Okay. I hope what it is. It's crisis sometimes. Has it acted that way? You know, gold went down on January 6th. I find it to be useless, honestly.

Okay. I hope I'm wrong. You're focused on gold. I'm thinking the commodity complex itself. All right, John. Wait, wait. Copper. Wait, wait.

Before we go to copper, who cares about copper? All right. Go back to ags for a second. Okay, please. Anybody watch John Kerry last week on TV? What are 33% of the world emissions? Carbon emissions. Come from where Kerry last week on TV? What are 33% of the world emissions? Carbon emissions. Come from where?

China. What activity? Driving. Driving. What? Farming. We're not that smart. Mr. and Mrs. Merrick.

Yeah. What activity, according to John Kerry, I think this is right, accounts for 33% of the world emissions? Bitcoin mining? Food production. Okay. I believe that. Let's say farming.

Okay. Farming. So what are you, you're going to put restraints on farming? You put restraints on farming. No.

No, you can't, right? You lose society. Right, you lose society. So think about, sugar's up 34% this year. You long? Put this, put this,

put this weed chart up, John. So then, so then how do we, how do we account for this? It's been pretty rough. Yeah, but again, every time the consensus gets negative, like when the commitment of traders

that Joe was talking about where the specs get out and go short, you want to close your eyes and buy it. Because all these, weed, soybeans, corn, soybean oil, right? It's the same thing. Do you know how much of the market is people like you versus the producers

and like people that need to hedge? No, I don't care. How much of the activity that you're seeing on your screen is algorithmic or software versus people placing bets? I don't know. Okay. Has it changed the way- It has to have changed.

So has it changed the way that you have to operate knowing that on the other side of a lot of stuff is really a computer? There are many more smarter people than me out there. But how much of what you do is models, mathematical models versus your intuition? We have algorithms that we create. Yeah.

And is that a piece or all? Or how does that- A piece. So is that a separate piece or is that part of the input to your process?? A piece. So is that a separate piece or is that part of your, the input to your process? A separate piece. Okay.

We have these charts. Here we go again. I want to show these to you. What charts are we doing now? This is, well, these are. What are you showing? I'm showing you stocks,

but I know. I don't want to see, talk to him. What about stocks? Joe, this is energy materials. Here we go again. Versus the S&P 500. How many times have you done this on your show?

500? No. No? How many times have you shown a shot with these? Go ahead, go. Go ahead. Go. Is there meaning when you see energy materials?

I guess this is year to date. We actually go back further. We can go five years. Is there meaning to you when you see this level of underperformance through half a year in these areas of the market? Is there like an economic read through or not necessarily? I don't think I agree with that. I think that the market is taking in 2023 a more offensive approach. And if the market is taking a more offensive approach, it immediately goes towards growth, immediately goes towards mega caps. It immediately goes towards technology.

What's interesting is the quarterly rebalance for the Joe TETF just happened. And I always say that tends to take the personality of the market. Dramatic increase in the weighting towards technology, dramatic increase in the weighting towards consumer discretionary, a less of exposure to the defensive areas like consumer staples and healthcare. What was interesting to me, though, is energy maintained its overweight allocation. So there's something there in not only the momentum aspect, but also the quality aspect for energy that's kind of signaling to you that while the market looks more offensive in its nature, it still sees energy as particularly relevant in the conversation for the way you're thinking about a portfolio. Because you're waiting on momentum. You're waiting on quality.

Yeah. Those two factors. Can we talk about Bill Ackman's tweet today? So I don't really fully understand the mentality of putting on a trade and then tweeting it, but here we are. So I kind of agree with him, and I'm not a global macro trader, and I'm not going to read this whole thing. What's the TLDR? The TLDR is if long-term inflation is really going to be more like 3% versus 2% and history holds, we could see the 30-year treasury yield go from 3% to 5.5%. And it's breaking out right now. Massive breakout.

That's a huge breakout. That's not how markets trade. Okay. Say more. What? Say more. Because markets trade is a perception of what's going to happen, not what really happens. So I think this is where the perception is shifting.

Right. So again, he may affect perception. But again, in reality, it doesn't really matter if it's two or three. Does anyone really believe it's two or three? Nobody believes that inflation is trending close toward three right now. Of course not. I mean, these numbers are all made up. Okay.

You think that the numbers that come out, these labor numbers that come out with the additions and the birth debt, they can make a big... Right. It's a model. It's too many people. It's really trapped. It's perception.

What is the perception? The perception is we're going to have more inflation, right? Yeah. Right? So the perception is if there's a jump more, then the bond's going to come. I mean, to some degree, the reason why stocks have gone up so much, right?

It's because would you rather put your money in a corporation or would you rather give it to the U.S. government the way things are going? John, throw up this positioning chart, the figure 12 client survey. No, this is a sentiment. Shush for a sec. Listen, listen, listen. Is this Merrick?

J.P. Morgan. This is the South Merrick bagel report. Now, this is an everything chart. All right. Their client survey indicates that long-duration positioning is more widely held now than at any point over the last five to ten years. This came out like three or four days ago. Then we saw Fitch do what they did.

Whatever. We can get into that, the downgrade. So people were so offside. So is there like a reverse squeeze? Like people that were long duration are now getting out? No, the reason why that happens is because insurance companies have the chance to lock in their trades, right? If you're an insurance company-

4% right now, lock it in forever. You think about all these people. Think about all the underfunded pension fund liabilities that are out there in the world, right? They were already zero. Now they can lock in 4%. This helps. Yeah.

Right? How can they, you know? Again, I don't know what I'm talking about. Do you trade interest rates? No. Have you ever? Sometimes. Okay. What don't you like about that market? I don't understand it. Okay. I don't have an edge. If I have an edge, I'm not going to trade it. This is a pretty notable breakout, though.

Put up the 30-year treasury rate. Here we go. Massive. Take a look at this. If this was natural gas or corn or soybean, this is back to 1970. Let's say 1977 or whatever. This is a pretty big breakout, or it looks as though it could be. Looks as deceiving. You know that.

The yield curve is un-inverting be. Looks is deceiving. You know that. The yield curve is uninverting rapidly, which is pretty interesting. Well, debt as a percentage of GDP is going to explode and you can't dismiss that. Okay, so Fitch did basically what S&P did back in 2011, right? Moody's is the only loan holdout, but are they wrong in what they did? Here's what they said.

They said, the rating downgrade of the United States reflects the expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years, a high-end growing general government debt burden and the erosion of governance reliance relative to AA and AAA rated peers over the last two decades

that has manifested in repeated debt limit standoffs and last minute resolutions. Not entirely untrue, but these are the companies that have the AAA. We have AA. Germany, Denmark, Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, Switzerland, Luxembourg, Singapore, Australia are all rated higher than we are. Right. So if some shit blows up in the United States, Germany is not going to be a AAA credit.

What? Everything in this table is reliant upon the US being a AAA credit in practice. Maybe not according to Abercrombie and Fitch. I don't disagree with that. upon the US being a AAA credit in practice. Maybe not according to Abercrombie and Fitch. I don't disagree with that. We have military protection for two-thirds of the countries listed on this table. So if we're not AAA, then none of them can really be AAA. The only thing that I see in the last couple of days that's different than 2011,

because that's the template, right, is what happened to treasury yields. In 2011- They went down, right? Treasury yields went down because the equity market went down. This feels a little different because the equity market went down and treasury yields are actually going up. So there's something there- They were positively correlated all last year, which is what killed portfolio managers. Right. So there's something there that is disconcerting to the bond market, for sure. This is Goldman Sachs' response.

We do not believe there are any meaningful holders of treasury securities who will be forced to sell due to a downgrade. S&P downgraded the sovereign rating in 2011. While it had meaningful negative impact on sentiment, there was no forced selling at that time. On the other hand, if Japan goes ahead and gives up yield control, right,

and they start selling U.S. bonds, they'll blame Fitch for the reason why they're doing it. Okay. That's interesting. Right. Do you think those two things, what's going on with the currency in Japan and Fitch's announcement, are completely detached from each other or maybe connected in some way? No idea. Okay. about defense. The one thing I do that catches my eye, again, I'm not stocks,

is every day after the close, you see Lockheed Martin, which just granted a $2 trillion contract from this one. This one was all those non-competitive, non-competitive, non-competitive,

non-competitive, non-competitive, non-competitive, non-competitive, non-competitive, non-competitive, non-competitive, non-competitive,

non-competitive, non-competitive, non-competitive, non-competitive, non-competitive, non-competitive, non-competitive, non-competitive,

non-competitive, non-competitive, non-competitive, non-competitive, non-competitive, non-competitive, non-competitive, non-competitive,

non-competitive, non-competitive, non-competitive, non-competitive, non-competitive, non-competitive, non-competitive, non-competitive,

non-competitive, non-competitive, non-competitive, non-competitive, non-competitive, non-competitive, non-competitive, non-competitive,

non-competitive, non-competitive, non-competitive, Oh, I am. I totally agree with that. And every day after the close, we did another thing. $2 billion, $17 billion. I don't even know what the, you know. And now that all this armament's been used in Ukraine, they're going to have to restock, right? Yeah.

Right? I think there's no end in sight for the foreseeable future for the rearming of the world. Plus, think about this. If nobody wants to be in the army, that means you need more material because if there's less people, right? Joe, can we talk about Joe T's third anniversary this fall?

Sure. Okay. First of all, congratulations. Thank you. I remember when you launched the ETF. You came on my other podcast, my original podcast. What happened to that one? We turned it into this.

This is more fun. This is what we do with other people live. So three years running the ETF, what was the biggest surprise in all that time that you weren't prepared for? Or, you know, upside surprise or downside surprise? Or what would you say is the thing that happened that you weren't expecting?

I think the hardest thing is the blessing and the curse of CNBC. Okay. So the blessing being – We're going to edit out the curse part. So the blessing being – no, we're going to speak towards the curse. So the blessing being, being on CNBC, CNBC has been wonderful, remarkable, and affording me the opportunity to explain the strategy. Yep.

Everyone across the board. And the other, you know, my colleagues, my panelists, they've all been receptive in that nature. The problem is, being on CNBC, everyone takes the strategy and measures you versus the S&P 500. Yeah, you have a public track record. That's it. You're measured against the S&P 500. And upon inception of the strategy, what this was, was to take a single factor of momentum, which I felt was deficient in providing an investor a real mitigated risk opportunity to invest in momentum itself. And it's not being measured in the right way. That's the challenge. How do you want it measured?

It's an improvement over a single factor of momentum, without question. It's adding upon it the quality factor, adding upon it a look at a fundamental balance sheet. So you want to be looked at as like, okay, you want to invest in momentum, fine. Do it this way with a quality screen. Absolutely.

So you're not just buying the momentum of junkie stocks. It's a shock absorber. So that's the biggest challenge. So people have trouble with that. Right, because everything's measured against the S&P, which is fine. I mean, this is life. Let me give you some love, Joe. You have Joe T, the ETF, has destroyed the biggest momentum ETF in the United States, I believe, which is MTUM, right?

The iShares product. MTUM. MTUM. You have destroyed it since inception. Three years. You've just crushed. So credit to you. And people say, why does that matter?

Thank you. People say, why does that matter? Because there's billions of dollars that's invested in a single factor of momentum. So listen, I'm very satisfied that we've improved upon that factor of momentum. So listen, I'm very satisfied in that we've improved upon that factor of momentum. Well, I'm proud of you. Thank you.

I believed in you. Thank you. I appreciate that. Set the record straight. I knew you would do it. I didn't know why or how. There are a lot of differences between how you're managing your ETF

versus how other people do momentum. Forget about the other ETF, but just generally, a lot of people have different definitions for momentum. And a lot of people are not even doing it scientifically. They're just like, I trade momentum. What does that mean? I don't know. Stock's going up, I buy it. Stock's going down, I sell it. You have a process. And I think that that puts it a big step forward versus a lot of other stuff out there. And we're focused first and foremost on risk. So we're equally weighted.

We're not market cap weighted, right? We don't want the idiosyncratic single stock event risk. So you don't want Nvidia becoming 13%, 14% of your portfolio? No, no. Everything is all about risk. Mark, how do you think about momentum and trend in your industry? Believe it or not. Do commodities trend or do they mean reverse? They definitely trend. Both, right? They do both. Believe it or not, Do commodities trend or do they mean reverse? They definitely trend.

Both, right? They do both. Believe it or not, I do believe like I'm an index, we have an index called the Essential 40 which basically

is equally weighted as well. We rebalance which is based on essential stuff. It's not momentum at all like that. But again,

if you don't rebalance, right, you know, to me that's a much safer way to invest than not rebalancing but I want to digress

for one second I was talking about one or two years before we talk about traders right what makes a good trader what makes a good trader also knows

you got to start all over right if you're in a bad way you're in a bad streak things aren't going right just start all over and we just saw it happen in the last

72 hours Josh tell me who you saw it happen somebody started all over started all over and one of the best traders come on give me a hint it happened in the last 72 hours. Josh, tell me where you saw it happen. Somebody started all over? Started all over. And one of the best traders said, screw it. Come on, give him a hint. Baseball. No, baseball. Stevie Cohen started all over again. That is impossible

to do. Not impossible. He did it. Very hard. He did it. Well, he can afford to do it. I'm not saying that, but think about what that means. Boom. Remember Bobby Fisher? You ever search for Bobby Fisher? The guy takes a picture and he's like, boom, start all over? Yeah. As a trader, you need to be able to do that and be humble enough to say,

screw it, we're starting all over. You can't always fix what's wrong. Sometimes you just need a clean slate. Clean slate. Oh, I think that's a great lesson. It doesn't always apply, but when it does, it really does. Just sell everything. Start over.

Start fresh. Just start all over. Yeah. Take a couple days, just start all over. You know why that's so important? Like in surgery, if a surgeon makes a mistake, they don't let the surgeon go in there and fix his own mistake. They bring somebody else in, brand new, start all over. Here's the problem.

Right. Because the goal is keep the patient alive, not to button up an old error. So if you have a situation where nothing's going right, maybe that's like a really great lesson is just say, I got to start from clean. I have a question. How many people are actually going to listen to this podcast? What do you think? Like a lot. 50,000?

75? I don't know. I think 50,000 people will download it and another, I don't know, 25 think 50,000 people will download it and another I don't know, 25 to 50,000 will watch it. Not to tell you how to run your business, but I would love somebody to do a study. You guys can do it. I can say you don't give so good. Someone needs to run the poll.

There's a reason for this. Joe Biden, Donald Trump, none of the above. Who wins? Everyone knows the answer to that. Really? I don't think my audience is representative of the whole country, though. No? No.

I think there's a lot of people in my audience that care mostly about— None of the above gets at least 25% of the vote. I think none of the above wins. I think none of the above wins, too. How many elections have there been in our lifetimes that none of the above wouldn't have won? No. Obama, Bush? Not much. I think now it's none of the above in a landslide.

I'm curious. That's what I Not much. I think now it's none of the above in a landslide. I'm curious. That's what I'm saying. Someone should do it. I would tell – but you guys are out of the box enough. You should do it. Those comments would be really fun. Yeah. We should do that just for the engagement.

None of the above. Can we just finish the thought for a second on Steve? I can't because my ADT kicked in. That was an impressive question. I'll do it with Josh. That was impressive. Think about the embarrassment, right? So the exercise of wiping the slate clean, stopping yourself out as a traitor, Stevie

Cohn, right? So highly successful. Think about wiping away that embarrassment, the courage that it takes, the discipline it takes on his part. I just think it's remarkable that he was able to execute and move like that. Dude, he's the owner. But the whole city is looking at him. It would be impressive if it was a GM working for him that pushed him to do it and didn't lose his job. He owns the team.

No, I disagree. The courage? Because the players are his public stock calls. It's hard to turn that shit around. Well, it's easy when you look at how they're doing. No, no. Nah. No.

All right. Are Mets fans like, don't do that. Come on. But owners get married to their players. I think it's smart what he's doing. I don't think it's courageous. Oh, it's, it's, it's, but it's his own money. He's wiping away the embarrassment.

Yeah. Well, he said, all right, you're right. I shouldn't say that. You're right. He's admitting whatever shit I've been doing for three years is not good. Right. Okay. So, yeah.

I think what's different about this and SAC, he didn't have to do that with any trades at SAC. He wasn't talking publicly about trades that he was in. And maybe he did that more times than most people think. That makes it even harder to do sometimes. What's that? Doing it quietly? Yeah. Privately? Okay. Yeah, who knows? You invented

a new type of hurricane window. What? What? Yeah, you did. Yeah. What'd you do? We have pictures of this. John, on screen, please. No, don't show this. Yeah, we show this. Is that a traitor? No, that's not a traitor. Do we have volume on this?

So I live in Miami. Which is going to go with all the… You got like five years left. Probably. You're going to have to put it on stilts. Yeah. It's coming back to Long Island. My weather guys say that the probability of a Hurricane Ian hitting Miami in the next 10 years is 75%.

Okay. Okay. With that being said, everyone has these sliding glass doors, right? Apartments and everything else. Yeah. And no one really realizes until the water, when water hits your tracks, normally the water comes in and out through these little weep holes. I know this firsthand because we have this problem in my house.

Let's do this. And so when a storm comes, the wind and water hit the track. It can't go back and forth. It goes into your residence, gets into your sheetrock, gets into your whole thing, and that's how it creates chaos. All right? And during Hurricane Irma, there was hundreds of millions of dollars of damage to everyone's apartments because of this.

In my house in Miami, this happened. I'm saying, someone's got to figure out how to solve this problem. So me, the largest home builder in the state of Florida, Todd Glazer, two of my good friends, we all came up with a way to figure out how to do this. So we came up with a solution, how to fix this problem. Okay, and my partner said, let's go and file for a patent. Not to get a patent, just to see the competition. Lo and behold, we got a patent.

No one's ever done it. And now we partnered with a large, a very large window manufacturer that publicly traded on the New York Stock Exchange called Techtoglass. And the symbol is T-G-L-S. You can look at their stock price. They're kicking ass, right?

I don't know, right? And we're about to roll this out all through the state of Florida. But basically, this is going to save you from having about 95, 98% of the water that normally would get in, you know, not getting into your house. Think about it. Because all the damage happens not from the wind

and water. Not in the first floor I'm talking about. From the second floor, it happens from under the tracks. It goes right through the tracks. That's how you get all the mildew. That's how you get all the mold. So the water gets trapped in the tracks. And it overwhelms the tracks. It overwhelms the tracks, goes into your apartment, and that's the end of it. And then it's mold.

And then it becomes chaos. So the insurance companies in a place like Florida, they don't even want to insure there anymore anyway. Think about how much insurance has gone up in Florida. It's gone up 70% year over year. Yeah. You know, if someone wants to take the other side of, you know, the real estate market of Florida, it's because of the insurance costs.

Right. Right. Okay. So this is something that you seem to be really excited about. So what involvement are you going to have? Are you just going to let them take it away and do what they do? No. We license it. And they're a really great partner.

But what we did also, what we did with them is, so Josh, if you buy a system for your house, right, hopefully at some point you're going to get an insurance credit that's going to offset it. Yeah. But secondly, for everyone you buy, every system you buy, which is like, let's say a couple windows, we donate one to people who can't afford it. Oh, wow. Right. So basically people that can't afford this, right? You're paying for it. We're all paying for it.

Which is because this is too big of a problem. Oh, because the insurance companies are paying for it. Therefore, it shows up in our premiums anyway right but I'm saying but for people don't even have insurance you know yeah yeah yeah

right so that's really the so what's the innovation is it the glass or the housing that's holding the glass like what just now you can put it on

you'll see how simple this is people take sandbags you don't put it on that never works think of if you're on the 10th floor right and you put sandbags outside

how do you get back in the apartment helicopter so he's showing this is like the original one because we've made it much better Think of it if you're on the 10th floor, right? And you put sandbags outside. How do you get back in the apartment? With a helicopter? So he's showing. He's showing. This is like the original one because we've made it much better. But he'll show you.

So he pulls ahead. Okay. If he ever stops clicking it. All right, hold on. It'll take 10 seconds. It's a thumbscrew. And he puts it. Here he goes.

Right on the track. Oh, look at this. Right? Oh, so you could just install this on existing. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Look at it. And this is going to block. This is going to block the track. Oh, look at this. Right? Oh, so you could just install this on existing. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Look at it. And this is going to block the water. And some tape on the inside that we do.

We tested it already. We tested it at one of the big hurricane centers in Miami. There you go. Boom, this and tape on the inside blocks 99. And look, and the beauty of it is you can still get in and out of your unit because it doesn't stop you from getting in and out of your unit. Were you shocked that something so simple has not— Right, it comes down to keep it simple is stupid.

How about the guy who made Post-its? How much money did that guy make? So wait, what do you do? You just step over this thing? Yeah. Or you take it off whenever you want? Yeah. Okay.

You take it off before—you put it on before a storm, you take it off after. So, you know, if you take it on— It looks like he installed this thing in two seconds. Exactly. Okay. It's moronic proof. I love—hey, I love it. I love it.

What's the replacement on this? How many years? Five years. Five years. So that's great. You don't want to make the replacement too long. You can't because it's plastic. But you want to sell it again.

Of course we do. Yeah, yeah. I'm with you. I'm still a capitalist. I like it. Right? All right. Did you have fun on the show today?

Did you have fun? I had fun. Joe always has fun. Well, no. What about you? Did you have fun? Yeah. I know he had fun. You took had fun. Joe always has fun. Well, no. What about you? Did you have fun? Yeah. I know he had fun.

You took Merrick, boys. I didn't know he worked at Mateo's. Oh, yeah. He was in the prom with my son in the car. God only knows where it went on, that car. We're all South Shore boys. Right? Yeah.

Amazon beat the shit out of earnings. Yeah, I see that. There we go. Do you miss it? Do you miss it? Miss what? Long Island. No.

You're done. We have an apartment in the middle of Long Island, but I don't miss it you miss it? Do you miss it? Miss what? Long Island. No. You're done. We have an apartment in the middle of Long Island, but I don't miss it. I don't know if Mike knows this. My kid plays AAU basketball, travel basketball, and we play tournaments

during the course of the season and regular league play and all the games are at Island Garden. Right. And your name is all over the building.

Right, but I don't know what Island Garden is. Jim Fox runs it. Okay. What was your involvement? Were you like- I don't own Island Garden. Jim Fox runs it. Okay. What was your involvement? Were you like- I ran- I owned it.

You did own it. But all the not-for-profit stuff, you know, we- Jim's program, Dana, Daniel's program, all this. The idea is how many kids can get to college for free. Yeah. And since we've been involved, I think we've gotten over- This is the Long Island Lightning. Right.

Long Island Lightning, New York Lightning. Okay. So we we play you guys we're a we're a program called Level Up we play we play against five different lightning teams every season

but you don't play the New Heights Lightning New Heights Lightning is the real deal that's the team that went to E-Buy-BL that's a yeah no no no

my kid's not on a team that plays the real deal let's just there's a kid let's establish that there's a kid on the team that's going to play point guard for North Carolina

Jordan Dingle just transferred from Wharton to play point guard for St. John. You know, these kids are- Real players. Real players. So you must have put a lot of time and effort into that back when- Not as much as I used to. But now my focus is on, because of my little one, is baseball and Hialeah.

That's the next- Okay. Because that's another whole- Do you have that personality where you can't get halfway into something? You just like, what do you think? It seems like you do. What do you think?

Okay. So you're going to go, you're going to go all in and start building baseball fields and turf and all this stuff. We're building leagues. We're helping kids. Helping kids. Okay.

I love that. I love that. Well, we, uh, on behalf of everyone here at the compound, we want to thank both you guys for coming. We had a great, we had a great time with you.

We do this thing to end every show called Favorites. And we're basically going to ask you to tell the audience something that you're watching or reading or listening to or whatever. Anything that you think other people should hear more about. Michael, do you want to go first? I'm excited. Well, that's not a fit.

Well, I guess it is. I'm excited to see Metallica tomorrow. That's how I'm finishing my week. Is it MSG? No, MetLife. MetLife. Oh, wow. You're going out there for that?

Yeah. I don't know. Yeah, I know. All right. What's wrong? You made a face. What's wrong with Metallica? What kind of music would you go to Giant Stadium for?

I wouldn't go to Giant Stadium. What are you, a Barry Manilow guy? Come clean. Come clean. Did you go to Giant Stadium for? I wouldn't go to Giant Stadium. What are you, a Barry Manilow guy? Come clean. Did you go to Taylor Swift with your daughter? She didn't want to go. She's aged out. She's 17. I got lucky with that one. Oh, you got lucky. Yeah, yeah. Why did you go?

Dude, I would have gone if she was like... I took her to everything. I took her to Lil TJ in Huntington. I took her to Drake. I took her to Lil TJ in Huntington. I took her to Drake. I took her to Migos. Don't get defensive. No, gladly, though.

Anything she wanted to do. Mark is a 70s disco guy. Okay. What are you talking about? All right. You got a favorite for us? Lone Survivor. What is it?

Oh, I love that movie. Lone Survivor. I feel like I saw that. Watch the movie the other day. Mark Wahlberg. Yeah. So my middle son, Tanner, is playing this year hockey for the Long Island Gulls. They have a big emphasis on teamwork, military training.

Lone Survivor is a fantastic movie. So he starts training camp at the end of August. And Mike Murphy, who unfortunately lost his life in Afghanistan, is part of the lone survivor story. Mike Murphy's family will come and address the players before that. Oh, wow. It's just a remarkable movie and a great reminder of the sacrifice that people make in this country. Joe, did you see The Covenant?

I did not. The Covenant is a guy who came out last year with Jake Gyllenhaal. Or this year, maybe. It was f***ing awesome. Awesome. Awesome, awesome war movie. Mark, you got a favorite for us? Yes.

Hit me. Oppenheimer. Oh, I saw it. But for a reason. Okay, why do you think it's popular? No, I want to hear what you think. He didn't like it. I sort of liked it.

I want to hear what you think. There's one takeaway that I don't think you guys realize. Give it to me. In the movie, it's discussed that Germany and Hitler were ahead of the United States in this whole nuclear thing. But Hitler was so against the Jews and the physicists who were all Jewish. He didn't really put the effort into it that he could have

because he didn't trust the Jewish physicists. If he would have trusted Jewish physicists, we'd all be German. That's why. That's interesting. And why were they all communists? That part I didn't really understand. I have no idea.

Yeah. But they spent like a third of the movie on communist stuff. I thought it was going to be more about World War II. You know? Okay, so write a review. No, I'm not. I know you didn't make the movie. I just thought that part was weird. Did you like the movie overall? Yes. You did.

The performances were really good. What's his name? It was unbelievable. Killian Murphy was incredible. He was incredible. Why didn't you like the movie? The last 45 minutes was way too long. Mike and I said, if I could sit through a three hour movie with my ADD, you could sit through it. We saw it at IMAX on the gigantic screen. Were you in Westbury? No. Lincoln Center.

Lincoln Square. Here? Yeah. Ten story screen. And it was, listen, I like You guys went together? Yeah. That's a little strange. No, no, no, no. There was somebody else there. There was somebody else there. There was somebody else there. You want to tell us who it was? Obviously not.

See, you guys can play the same game I can play. It was our chaperone. All right. All right. But wait, before we get out of here, can we settle something? What? Last time I was on the show, we talked about favorite- We're settling beefs now?

Yeah, we are. Okay. Favorite Italian restaurant on Long Island. I went 388. He went Mateos. My wife's going there tonight 388 yeah it's good i didn't say it's not good no you went mateos over my 388 which one's better 388 388 like no hesitation hands down 388 okay all right maybe maybe uh

what do i know you apparently know a lot. What? I've been talking. Okay. That's a wrap. What's the best Italian food in Miami? Where do you go when you're homesick? I don't really go anywhere. No? No. Okay.

I go to the Palm. It's two blocks from my house. Do you miss the pizza in New York? Yes. Yeah. You must, right? Yeah. What else?

Chinese food? No, I don't eat Chinese food. Favorite pizzeria in New York? What? Favorite pizzeria in New York? Gino's. Gino's. Gino's. He likes Anconas, but it's...

All right. All right. Well, fellas, you've been amazing. Thank you guys so much for coming on the show. Thank you, Josh. Reminder to all Compound listeners, make sure if you love the show, leave us a rating, leave us a review,

any podcast platform that you're listening on, but really specifically try to do that on Apple or Spotify. It goes a long way. Tell the algorithms that you love the show. Special thanks to Mark Fisher. Special thanks to Joe Terranova. Great job this week, everyone. John, welcome back. Great job, Duncan, Nicole, Rob, Sean. I know you're out there. Thank you so much for all your help. We will see you guys next week. Take us out of here. All right, so that was the warm-up.

And we just wanted to give you a little idea of how the show goes. So I'm going to take a break. Hey, can you guys make it warmer in there? The way we can heat it up?