The Compound and Friends - New Year’s Resolutions, the $15 Trillion Liquidity Flood With Garrett Baldwin, Reacting vs Predicting

Episode Date: December 30, 2025

On this TCAF Tuesday, hear an all-new episode of What Are Your Thoughts with ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Downtown Josh Brown⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and special co-host ⁠⁠⁠��⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Garrett Baldwin! This episode is sponsored by Public. Find out more at https://public.com/WAYT Sign up for ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Compound Newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and never miss out! Instagram: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://instagram.com/thecompoundnews⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/thecompoundnews⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-compound-media/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ TikTok: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.tiktok.com/@thecompoundnews⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Public Disclosure: Paid endorsement. Brokerage services provided by Open to the Public Investing Inc, member FINRA & SIPC. Investing involves risk. Not investment advice. Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool by Public Advisors. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. See disclosures at http://public.com/disclosures/ga. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and investment values may rise or fall. See terms of match program at https://public.com/disclosures/matchprogram. Matched funds must remain in your account for at least 5 years. Match rate and other terms are subject to change at any time. Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Josh Brown are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. The Compound Media, Incorporated, an affiliate of ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Ritholtz Wealth Management⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information. Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/⁠⁠⁠⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to The Compound and Friends. I think this is it. This is the last episode of the year. Boy, are you in for a treat? We did an all-new edition of What Are Your Thoughts? Sponsored by Our Friends at Public. More on Public in just a moment. Garrett Baldwin joined me, and we went deep on some pretty big topics.

The Golden Silver Rally this year. What the Fed is actually doing, despite what it says it's doing. The $15 trillion flood of liquidity. that's come into global asset markets since 2024 and so much more. I think you're going to love the show. Michael Batt was on vacation with his family, but Garrett came to play, and we had a lot of fun chopping up some of the most important things happening right now. So please, if you will, enjoy the show.

Happy New Year. We'll talk to you soon. Welcome to the compound and friends. All opinions expressed by Josh Brown, Michael Batnick, and their castmates are solely their own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of Ridholt's wealth management. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions. Clients of Ridholt's wealth management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. come on look at this the last show of 2025 yo in the in the chat tell me if you guys are excited for uh for nights tonight's episode i am so

excited we have uh i guess just your second time back on the compound network all right returning champion garret baldwin is joining me tonight nothing medical or catastrophic has happened to Michael Batnik. He is in Disney with his children, and I demanded he take the week off. Because you know, Mike, he'll set up his laptop in the Epcot Center and just start grinding topics with me. But it's like how many times do you get to bring your kids to Disney?

Once in a lifetime, twice maybe. So Michael's taking the week off. We miss him. But man, do we have an unbelievable guest tonight? Garrett, say hi to everyone. Hi, everybody. Hope you're doing well. Happy New Year to everybody. Thanks for having me on, Josh. Look at that. All right. Let me just do some quick shouts to the chat. Georgie D. I see you. Happy New Year, my friend. Ryan Tumbles. Hello again from Chattanooga. Thanks for joining us, dude. Matt is here. Julian is here.

Brandon Daly. Brian Donnelly. My bad, guys. I'm on a small laptop. I see some bees in the chat. That's the Dunk. And Hive, Brian Robbins, Andrew Corman. All right, we're so excited to see you guys. Thanks to all the regulars who come every week. We love you. Who's this? Jay Cool says, Josh, I'm here, too. I know.

I know. All right. We have a sponsor tonight. Before I get to Garrett's introduction, let's pay some bills very quickly here. Josh, please read this verbatim. Today's show is sponsored by Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On public, you can build a multi-asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto, and now generated assets, which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI.

It all starts with your prompt. You can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one-of-a-kind index, and then lets you back-tested against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in just a few clicks. generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com slash wayyt and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com slash wayt paid for by public invest in full

disclosure and podcast description. All right. Joining me tonight on the year's final edition of your thoughts is Garrett Baldwin. Garrett is a financial writer and investor with a background with a background in journalism, economics, market research. He has completed advanced studies in global security, trade economics, and finance, and institutions including Johns Hopkins, Purdue, and Indiana's Kelly School of Business. Before launching me and the money printer and hosting market masters at Theo Trade, he spent more than a decade in financial publishing and competitive intelligence covering hedge funds, private equity, and public markets.

Garrett, you're what they call a polymath. Do I have that right? You wrote this bio. Wow, this thing goes on for a while. It's probably too much. I forgot I did all these things. I appreciate it. Yeah.

You're an accomplished guy. And I read all your stuff. And I was so excited that you were free to be on the show because, you know, you're an accomplished guy. because there's like a lot of deep stuff going on in the world at large, in the economy, and the markets. And you really put a lot of thought into some of these like brain breaking topics. But what I think you do really well is you then come down to like from the 10,000 foot view down to the 10 foot view.

All right. So what do you do about it? Like a lot of macro thinkers, they kind of stop at the 10,000 foot view. Whereas I think you, you try to be. a little bit more practical for, for our viewers. So I'm really excited to get into this stuff for you. Yeah. I mean, again, I, I went to, I went to Hopkins with the goal of being able to explain

to my mother in one sentence what a derivative is. How to go? Because that, that's my audience. That's the people that I'm, you know, I'm trying to talk to. I only got it down to two sentences, though. I'm still working on. All right. So let's start here.

We finished, I mean, I'm saying this a day in advance, but humor me. 2025, record highs in the stock market, give or take, consumer spending, breaking records, a full-blown CAP-X, IPO, and corporate investing cycle all over the place. And faster than expected GDP growth was like the last big economic headline of the year. And taking all those things, it's a little bit curious to also note that we finish the year with another interest rate cut. Right. Make it make sense.

Yeah. We're pricing in a 16% chance of a January cut. I don't think we're getting one, but whatever, even if it's a small chance. But we had how many cuts is here, three cuts? So, okay. All right. So what's going on? Yeah, look, I think that this is, you have to stop thinking about the economy and you have

to start thinking, I think, about liquidity. And Michael Howe is number six. It's Substack for Finance. He's been writing about this for years. that basically the numbers are cartoonish. Global liquidity, the way that he defines it, basically everything past the M2, has expanded by roughly $15 trillion since January 2024,

and $13 trillion of that comes this year alone. So this is not a tailwind. It is a flood of capital. And when you inject that much balance sheet capacity into a system, markets are going to do exactly what they're supposed to do. I mean, this is Stanley Druckenmiller said, look, liquidity moves asset prices. House says money moves markets. Asset price rises. CapEx comes back because financing is abundant.

IPO windows will reopen because multiples expand before the fundamentals catch up. And consumers are still spending because the nominal incomes, the asset values, and the credit availability all rise together, basically even if the real economy underneath feels uneven. So in that context, I don't really think that record high is mysterious. I think they're mechanical. faster GDP growth isn't really a miracle either. If you look at the National Financial Conditions Index from the Chicago Fed, we are at the loosest that we have been since COVID. And if you flip that chart upside down, and it's a pretty funny thing to do, flip the National Financial Conditions Index upside down since COVID started. It basically tracks the S&P 500. Wow. So you was, all right, so everything went up

this year. Here's what didn't go up this year. I think nationally home prices were sort of stagnant. Bitcoin was down. It had been up a lot at one point during the year, but it's finishing the year, flattish, downish, and oil and energy stocks. Other than that, merging markets, tips, cash, developed markets, like every large country around the world, whether it's Japan, Germany, Europe, everything in developed Asia went up, China went up, Chinese tech went up, U.S. stocks went up. The Russell was up 9%. S&P up close to 20 in total return.

Gold went up 65%. I think silver doubled. It's really hard to find things that didn't go up. So you're ascribing, you're using a figure $15 trillion in liquidity added to the system since 2024. So can you explain that? What do we mean when we say liquidity? Well, we're talking about the way that this is measured. So it is the global liquidity index. It's capital that is coming from virtually every financial system, whether it's the Federal Reserve, whether it's coming from the Treasury, whether it's coming from central banks in China. The bulk of that liquidity

expansion is everything past the M2. And this is where the way that he's defined it with the global liquidity indices, it's the shadow banking. system. It's over $100 trillion. And, you know, we talk about the M2 and we see that relationship between the M2, but it's that, and the SEP 500, but it's that global liquidity index that Hal has been showing since 2011. And it just showcases the MSCI is just going straight up. Asset prices continue to rise. And what's, you know, pretty interesting about this is that it is the way that that how defines it, debt is exponential, liquidity is cyclical. So where we are right now, according to him, is that we are at the top of the liquidity cycle at this moment. Right now,

the U.S. is very stretched. China is not. So that's kind of where the expectation is that that's where the next wave of capital would come from. But, I mean, there's no coincidence to any of this. If we go back and we assess the financial markets, you know, you go back to 2023, everybody was bearish heading into 2023. And then Howe comes along and explains, well, no, this is, this is the bottom of the liquidity cycle after the guilt crisis. And then it just absolutely takes off. And we have these 20% annualized returns. And everybody's sitting around trying to explain it and basically thinking that everything is being driven heavily by, by effectively earnings. There's another chart that we're going to show in a little bit. But since that bottom in 2023,

the bulk of the returns are coming from valuation expansion, not for earnings themselves. So let me, so let me hit pause on that. We're still raising rates in 23. So how are we also simultaneously adding liquidity? It's coming from the front end of the curve. It's coming from the treasury issuance, and then this capital finds its way into the repo system. And, you know, what's interesting about this is that there's no coincidence when Japan announces $117 billion. And the Federal Reserve this year, I found it to be actually refreshing this year

that the Federal Reserve effectively comes out and admits that the SOFR is what they need to pay attention to, that they have to make sure that the repo market is functioning properly. And that is where the bulk of this is coming from. It's coming from that rehypification. And you have all of these funds. Last time that you and I chatted was, I believe, August. and we were talking about the fact that back in April, when the market collapses, they ask Janet Yellen, well, why is it that, you know, you stepped in? Or why is it that the Federal Reserve was on, was concerned? And she said, well, because a lot of these leveraged hedge funds were dumping treasury bills. And that's, I mean, at the end of the day, they have revealed this. They

have effectively said, the thing that matters most right now is not the Fed Funds rate. It's the S-O-F-R. And it's it's the stability and the health of the repo system. And that's exactly what we're looking at right now. That's what all of this activity. Why is that so important? Why is that so important? Because otherwise you have a complete and total freezing of overnight, overnight lending. And that goes back to that 2019 crisis that we had where the repo, where repo rates went to 10%. And people don't remember that. It was a blip. And because we had COVID soon after, but there was a moment where the Fed was taking action or was it Fed or Treasury somebody was trying to shore up that that overnight repo market as quickly as they could. And that coincided with, I think some yield curve stuff

was going on. And then like, we all forgot about it because the pandemic started six weeks later. And I do remember that episode that you're referring to. And not just that. I mean, Powell comes out and actually states it. And I think that when we go back and we assess the last three central bankers and who led it. Pow is going to be, I think, remembered, not as the guy who was the inflation guy or the rate cutter or the hiker. I think he's going to be, his legacy will be the person who governed through financial conditions instead of the policy rates. And again, that's why I go back and I say, if you just assess and look at the National Financial Conditions Index, it is the inverse of the S&P 500. And I think it's because, at least my argument is,

that effectively the markets are front-running liquidity. Okay. So I do agree with that argument. I want to go back to that MSCI chart. So the Y axis on the right is trillions of dollars in liquidity. And on the left, we're looking at the global stock market. Do I have that right? So that's the MSCI global index.

And keep in mind that back in around 2011, the U.S. was about 301, the U.S. was about 33% of the MSCI. It's about 70 now. So that is a lot of capital that continues to flow into the United States. And then when we get to our risk section, that's the key concern that I still continue to be a little bit concerned about. It's the idea that foreign capital may potentially leave. And then that would lead to the valuation compression that was similar to what we saw in 2022. So this is interesting. Chart off, guys. We had a lot of people from the hedge fund world on the show this year, notably in the spring and in the summer. And, you know, it was a lot of recency bias at that time. But people were talking about

how angry the rest of the world is at Trump for the way that he was rolling out these tariffs and the way that Bessent was negotiating and they were playing hardball. And there was this really popular idea amongst like the Bridgewater types that the next shooter drop was going to be this exit of global investors from our markets. But that, like, sort of didn't happen. They were net buyers of U.S. stocks, I think, at least through Q3. I'm sure it didn't change much in Q4. And we didn't have, like, these hiccups in the treasury markets from the Japanese dumping

or the Chinese dumping or whatever the boogeyman was at the time. I'm not saying it can happen. I'm just saying it's been nine months, eight months. We haven't seen it yet. Interestingly enough, there's a strange paradox when it comes to U.S. monetary policy and anything that is accommodative. And that is that every time that the U.S. has engaged in some form of QE, more capital from abroad came to the United States chasing real returns. Now, will that change with Japan potentially raising rates? That remains uncertain.

But it's very, very clear that every single time that, look, we can get into the, the fundamental debate of whether or not another $450 billion in short, short T-bill purchases and support for the repo system is a form of quantitative easing or not. At the end of the day, though, the only thing that matters is stability. I think that I still don't believe that the Fed's mandate is inflation and the labor market. It's stability. And the Bank for International settlements basically said in April in a very damning report that, No central bank globally can take action without impacting everybody else. And that has been the lesson of that April or that August selloff that we had last year,

August 2024. The thing that's so wild about this is we are sitting in a scenario right now. We have had six moves on the VIX going back to August of last year, where in 10 days the VIX has fallen 40%. That had never happened before in 2011. We call those, do you guys in Chicago, do they call that a vall smash? Mm-hmm. So, or Val Crunch, like, like the VIX spikes and like within three days, it's like nothing ever happened because it just gets crammed down with liquidity and.

Right. And that's, and the most recent, most recent one was November 21st. And then you had, you had a couple along the way. I think you had one in August. You had April last year of this year. But it was that event last year in Japan. And that still does remain. I think the story that everybody became an expert on Japanese central banking policy like a month

and a half ago. But it still is an issue. It's still going to be a concern. And that carry trade issue still remains. And at some point, that money is going to leave. Whether that is next month or five years from now, that's anybody's guess. That's the fastest, that's the fastest financial crisis in my lifetime. Right. That lasted 10 hours. Mm-hmm. There were stop. There were blue chip stocks on the NICA that were down 20% in a day? Invidia fell 33% in a week and a half. Right. And then what was that?

Oh, nothing. You didn't see that. Right. But the other thing about this, and, you know, when we look at these markets, I think people are trying to make as good of a estimate and understanding of these types of moves. And the thesis that I have is the fundamental shifts in the market. at post 2008. So what happened post 2008? Well, as Hal, we'll argue, we became a refinancing mechanism and that leads to these ebbs and flows of equities. But as I really started to dig into this,

we went back to 1995. And I think the last time we talked about this was 93, and we had a candlebox reference. But, you know, the key thing was that value arbitrage, like value style investing, was like 80% of flows in the 90s. Leverage funds were 15% of passive was five. Today it's 50% passive, probably 30% leverage, and maybe 15 to 20 in value arbitrage. Why does that matter? Because the stocks that are the most aggressively owned in ETFs,

that Nvidia, Apple, Amazon, they're 50%. Then you have these stocks that are also being rehypithicated in repo, that's 35%, and then all of a sudden you have, you know, like Buffett buying Google, technically falls within that metric. Well, what's interesting about it is when those things unwind, they unwind violently. And all of that, so you have, you have, you have forced, you might have force selling and passive in ETFs. You have this, this leverage from a broad that might be crushed at the same time. And then you have all the, and then you have all the, uh, the leverage funds doing it as well, plus all of the retail that's panicking all at the exact same time.

The offsetting the counterbalance to what you've just described, however, and I started writing about this 10 years ago, but I think at this point it's become widely accepted as gospel. The counterbalance is the forced buying, which is basically a portion of every American's paycheck, every two weeks, being plowed directly right back into the stock market. think it stops volatility. I don't think it prevents crashes or corrections. What I do think it does is it dampens volatility. And my only evidence is the experience of the last 15 years post the financial crisis. We've had the Fed raising rates. We've had them cutting rates. We've had them raising rates again. We've had QE. We've had no QE. We've had balance sheet runoff. We've had

you know, Operation Twit. It seems like we've experienced like every season under the sun in that period of time. But the constant is 401K balances have gotten, have swollen to the point where they're big enough to swamp whatever the VIX is doing that morning. And again, it doesn't mean we can't have another event. We probably will. But I think the minor volatility that used to be more. routine gets smashed uh gets crushed even faster i no i i don't disagree about the i don't disagree

about the ets and and all of that additional funds but i think that there is what i have seen well not ets there's no ets in 401ks but yes indexing passive flow right right right is is this idea of like this what's transpiring and typically like every single crisis is some short some sort of short-term liquidity event that's transpiring, even earlier this year. I mean, when you had that sell-off that started in February of this year, there was a little bit of a liquidity gap that was transpiring. And the Fed did make a policy change at the end of March when they were reducing the balance sheet runoff. But every single, I don't know if we pulled this chart up, but it's the FNGD. It's the microsector's Fang plus index, negative three, inverse leveraged

ETN. I couldn't tell you what this thing does, but what I can tell you, every time that this thing breaks its 50-day moving average, something's wrong. Wait, wait, wait, stop. What the hell is this? It's the microsector's Fang Index, negative three, inverse leveraged ETN. It is a promissory, it is a bank promise from, I believe the bank in Montreal. Let me, let me wedge this comment in. We are not endorsing this product. No, no, but I will tell you this, when it breaks above its 50-day moving average, something's wrong. Something's wrong in the market. Go back and look at August to last year. I mean, it completely and totally spikes. So, you know, I was, I've been talking about this thing for, I don't know, two years because we have a momentum signal. And when the signal goes

negative, we look and see if this FNGD is breaking out because my argument is that's where leverage is leaving in some of these. So that's it. All right. So that's a bet against the fang stocks. in a very leveraged way for short-term traders who sense a turning point in the market. If you want to trade it, but I'm just using it as a signal. I'm just paying attention to see where the bottom's falling out. And it was funny because I've been talking about it. Microsectors reached out to me. They said, we want to send you a shirt.

I said, I don't want a shirt. I want to talk to your money manager. And I want to understand how this thing works. So we're trying to set up a time to chat at some point in the future. But no, I mean, the other thing about this. And when we look at these, we look at these big events, there is a policy change. And then we see significant amounts of insider buying, executives buying their own stock. And if we go back to 2008, insiders have called the bottom of every major event.

And in recent times, there have been more of these spikes of insider buying, but they're not as significant as the ones that happened in 2009, 2011, 2015, 18, 20. it just means that there's more of these events there's i mean how many how many multiple i think we've had a four sigma event at least one uh over over the last six years so so i guess my so i guess like the i guess the charitable way of looking at that like why it's good is that it it we it periodically reintroduces the wall of worry it stops runaway freight train bubbles from like really getting to where we know historically they've gotten to. And it keeps everybody a little bit honest. And I kind of like having a freak out every 90 days.

But I want to double click on something that you said earlier because I think this is the big takeaway. And then we could move on to something else. We can leave the Fed behind for the year. But you said the Fed says it's got a dual mandate, which is like steady inflation and full employment. But you said the truth. is somewhere along the line that got transmogrified, whether subconsciously or deliberately,

secretly, secretly, into a new single mandate, which is promoting stability. Now, people at the Fed would tell you those things all go hand in hand with stability. So it's actually, it's not actually a detour from what the rest of us think their dual mandate is. But I just wanted to hear what you thought about that. I just, I just continue to argue that stability, is the, is the, the, the action of post in a post-2008 world. Stability for financial assets specifically. Yes, specifically. Not stability for the quote-unquote job market because if you believe in the primacy of

the financial asset economy, jobs will take care of themselves so long as prices continue to rise. Well, the biggest concern is a debt deflation crisis. And that's what 2008 was. And that's what 2020 was. And that's where all, and you have these events like 2022, where the Fed raises interest rates, they break Sri Lanka. They break, you know, they're, they're definitely involved in the breaking of England as well. And they have to, they have to provide the accommodation that's necessary to prevent a debt deflation spiral.

And China's got that problem as well. That's not going away anytime soon. So basically the argument is that all roads point to more monetary inflation in the future. I don't know what that's going to look like. Last time we chatted, we were talking about, you know, who was taking over politically in New York and the case-shaped recoveries. I think that that might be where this, that hits ahead because it's just a matter of time. It's got to be a matter of time before politicians really put one and one together

on the impact of monetary policy. Well, what I would say is, I would say, like to build on your point, the irony of financial stability is it creates political instability. Correct. Because financial stability, the, the externality of that is richer or rich people. And non-investors, non-investors left behind. So that's the built-in irony of look how much financial stability we have. We smash the VIX down.

Anytime it comes even close to 25, nobody's ever really at risk. Well, guess what? Now you've got this permanent underclass that grows increasingly. divorced from the ability to live. And now you've got political instability that has been bred by the financial stability. So congratulations. What'd you really win? Well, as I said, I really just- Very cynical way of thinking about it. We chose such a happy to get involved in with our lives. Yeah. All right. Let's do this. Guys, give me my Ben Carlson graphic on screen.

So this is a LinkedIn post from my colleague, Ben Carlson. Another new all-time high for the S&P 500 today. This was last week. That's 38 this year. Here's the number of all-time highs every year this decade. 2020, 32. A lot of people won't remember that. 2021, 70, 2021, 120, 1, 0 all-time highs in the year 2020.

23, which I had to go back and look. I was surprised by that. 24, 57 new all-time highs, and 2025, again, 38. My comment was, and I might just be repeating something I just said, but like, think of what's been thrown at us in this period of time, a record drop in employment during this period, a record bare market, like the speed of a 20% decline. I think it happened in three days, five days. Record comeback back into a bull market from a bear market,

which happened in April and May of 2020. We had the Fed, hiking rates, the Fed cutting rates. We had every type of stimulus under the sun. We had 9% CPI readings. Like there's no financial condition you can dream up outside of a Great Depression. That hasn't, think about we had Democrats in all. office. We had Republicans in office. We had tax cuts. We had every type of stimulus, fiscal, monetary. Like, there's nothing that we didn't experience during this period, good and bad,

outside of an outright depression. And think about the number of new highs we're seeing in this period. It's truly remarkable. Well, it goes back to the argument of Hal's chart, right? Because that liquidity cycle bottoms out sometime around 2018 and expands. You move into 2021, we peak November 2021, and then rates start to move up. And then we start to see a liquidity squeeze out of the market. I was stunned to actually see that we only had one record high in 2023. Yeah. No, none.

None. None. Zero. That's crazy. In other words, the 21 high was not eclipsed. That's crazy. Until 24. And the funny thing about 2022, you know when that new high was the first day?

first day, right, because our, because our, because our momentum signal turned negative on the third and it was just off to the races. And then we, you know, we had that period in the first, second month, February. Wasn't that during that cybersecurity event? And we lost, we weren't, we were flying blind on, on hedge fund data for like two months. So, good times. Yeah. Just such a happy, a happy time. Fed Minutes came out today. Didn't appear to be, like, terribly market moving. They approved the quarter percentage point cut by a vote of 9 to 3, which Sean notes, my research guy, Sean Russo notes, that's the most dissents since 2019.

Yields were sort of mixed. Short-term yields went lower, which I guess they interpreted that as being doveish. long-term yields were flat and the one-month yield dropped five basis points to three spot five-four and that was so much ado about nothing in the minutes okay can we talk about silver and gold yeah let's do it okay massive rallies this year for both gold and silver i'm going to show you some charts and then have you react to them give me the 20 year gold chart hey now so gold spent most of the 20 teens in a consolidation period, at some point it was bare market-ish. Stocks were rallying and gold was doing nothing.

And then around the pandemic, it broke out to a new high, consolidated a little bit longer. And then last year and this year just went absolutely vertical. Here's silver. Yep. So gold has annualized at 11.3% over the last 20 years. So after all those consolidation periods, it more than made up for it. in the last couple of years. Silver, same thing, 11.6 over the last 20 years,

but it's parabolic. It's $20 an ounce in 20, 23 to 80. And here is three-year gold performance to illustrate that. Annualizing at 34.5% of the last three years, which is amazing. Silver, annualizing at 49.4% over the last three years. Is that silver up on the chart up? Um, this year, gold is up 66%. Best year since 1979.

And silver also the best year since 79. Up 169 nice percent. So gold and silver in 79 were ripping on geopolitical stuff like the Iran hostage crisis. Um, the Hunt brothers tried the corner of the market. Um, and, and obviously you have. like massive inflation. I don't know. What's going on now? What's the story? What's the story behind this now and how can it continue? I think our audience cares about. Now, the gold's easy because what happened in February 2022. The United States freezes Russia's assets.

And that becomes a catalyst for massive amounts of central banking purchases. Now, at the same time, you're seeing, you know, a lot of speculation. We're at that, we're at that peak of the liquidity cycle. That's typically where we do see a lot of speculation around metals. But what's so critical about this is just the fact that this is central bank buying. There's an, there is an ample amount of central bank buying because those central banks realize, look, the U.S. dollar, if they can freeze, if they can freeze Russia's reserves, they can freeze ours. So I think that that's one thing. Again, we did mention the excess global liquidity. I think that that's leaking into stuff that has no counterparty risk.

That's very critical. So it's not a panic trade. It's more of a balance sheet trade. You know, non-U.S. Central Banks, sovereign pools, large private capital. I don't think retail was late to this. Retail's been buying the dip of every gold run the last couple of months. They were mobbing Costco and buying the physical coin. Like the stores couldn't keep physical gold coins in stock for years and years and years.

You're right. And then you have silver. You've got to go back to earlier this year. The gold silver ratio hit 100. And everybody said, look, historically silver catches up. Silver's also got a very important AI component to it as well. You can't do anything with it. And then you have all this other nonsense and madness going on with comics.

And I really haven't followed that story close enough because it is the holidays. But there were rumors floating around today that some bank blew up and that the Fed had to step in. And I haven't been able to confirm any of that. But obviously, the CME group stepping in, raising margin requirements for precious metals contracts, you know, that's plumbing. That's not really a conviction thing. Margin hikes force leverage out of vertical moves and creates volatility, not typically trend reversals. So I've been very, very bullish on silver since the silver and gold since 2022 when all this happened with Russia. And if you believe a guy like Eric Sprott, who's been buying Highcroft, H-Y-M-C stock, hand over fist, it was at three, now it's at

23, he thinks, he thinks that it's possible that the silver and gold ratio drops to 34 on the way to then meeting somewhere, which I believe he has argued that it is the global mining ratio, which is something like 8 to 1. So a lot of the people who are, what's the adage go, you know, that sometimes it takes nothing happens for decades and then decades happens in weeks or something like that. You know, that's kind of where we are. It's a, it's a total repricing trade. There are years where nothing happens and there are weeks where years happen or something, something like that. Yeah. This feels, I mean, I don't want to like I don't want to make a short-term price prediction.

This feels like everyone is way too confident that that gold is just going right to 5,000. It sort of reminds me of Bitcoin ripping to 17,000 and change. Sure. And then like next thing you know, it's 10. Like I don't think gold would be that volatile, but it just, it feels like too easy. Like you buy it. It's definitely going higher.

for the people that have been accumulating it for years, Bravo. So I don't trade gold. I buy the, I buy the, I don't think it's the GLD, whatever the other one is. And I buy it. No, no, no, no, no, no, not gold miners. I buy one of the gold ETFs. IAU. Is that it?

But it's in like my public account and the same amount goes into it every month. I don't even look at the price. I do the same thing with Bitcoin. I don't have a view on gold. But I would just, I would say, it seems like, It's too obvious right now if I were like looking to trade it long. Right. I'd probably want to see somebody get scared and nobody's scared in this market.

Well, I mean, I've been in, I trade the Sprott, closed end fund, P, HYS. So I have a long position in that. And then I bought CEF, which is the Sprott physical silver and gold ETF. And that's my preferred way to do it because I know that that's really more of a one-to-one claim than dealing with, you know, anything with the miners. But that's kind of where my focus has been. And I still think that gold has room to run. But yeah, we're certainly in an environment right now where things feel stretched. And I mean, a palladium move of 16% the other day.

I mean, that was quite a bit. All right. There was a little bit of volatility in this market, though, recently. So let me just share this. Margin requirements were raised at the CME, which I suppose makes sense as an asset does what this is done. You don't want people taking more risk at today's prices, at least not if you're the one lending them the money to do it. So let me read this.

After a strong week-long rally that sent gold, silver, and other precious metals to all-time high prices fell sharply Monday after exchange operator CME group made a key change to its contracts. After peaking at 4565 per Choy O'A-ounce Friday, spot gold was down more than 4%. spot silver, fell 9%, prices for platinum and palladium also fell dramatically on Monday. The CME group raised its margin requirements for precious metals contracts, forcing traders to add money to accounts that insured against defaults. Exchange operators ordinarily raised margin requirements after strong price rallies. Essentially, it raises the minimum amount traders must give brokers.

Okay. So then why do the prices fall? because not everybody can come up with the money, simple as that. Okay. Short-term distraction, not really the story here. Would you say? Again, I think that this is more of a monetary debasement story than it is anything else. And, you know, again, if they're going to keep, if they're going to keep printing money and pumping money into the system, it's going to be beneficial to metals. But there's no, there's no real prediction figure. I view it more through the lens of what, you know, we talked about earlier, where it's, it's gold is,

Gold is certainly impacted by liquidity. You also could potentially see some strength coming out of China relatively soon because China, I believe, just hit the thousand yuan per gram. And, you know, that's, that's behavioral. That's where people step in and start by it or something. Right. Yeah. I got a guy here in Boca that I met recently who was like the original cash for gold guy.

And I'm tempted to tell them to get the band back together. because if you if that if that labor market does end up cracking right you you are going to have retail uh gold buying like we haven't seen since 2011 or whatever it was 2010 um so i'm almost i'm almost tempted to tell them the let's let's let's start let's start it up again what do you think i mean i'm on board they had they had one of the guys who's from like one of those uh one of those Not hoarder show. I forget what it is. One of the, one of the, not repo, one of my blanking on here.

Pawn shop, like a pawn shop star was on Fox business today. Like as the as the Bitcoin gold expert and like, okay, that might be a top if we're bringing in people like that. No, I think the top will be like, I think it will be something reality showish. It'll be like a plot line on real housewives where the husband is like buying the biggest house in his city because he's a gold person or like Kevin O'Leary mining ventures. They'll start advertising on CNBC, something like that. I don't think we're quite, quite quite there. But we're directionally. We're headed there.

This is you writing at your fabulous substack, me and the money printer. You said, the reality is this. We have nothing to compare our current situation to. There are too many variables, a Federal Reserve that's printing money out of thin air and then telling us they're not. The Treasury Department is manipulating our debt issuance to stabilize the Fiat banking system, a bifurcation of global trade partners, a reserve currency on the brink, billions of people on the planet all acting in their self-interest,

a Congress with an approval rating lower than colonoscopies, told you guys, Garrett's a great writer, but worst of all, people who really don't understand how the system works after 2008. Everyone is a self-proclaimed expert and everyone has an opinion, but it's clear that so many people are still stuck in a 1990s mentality on how money moves. My argument is to avoid predicting too much. Just react. That is what you can. can control in the year ahead. We have a specific momentum signal that has navigated the post-2020 era very well, despite all the unprecedented actions by our financial elite. Why is it important to react rather than predict these days more than ever?

And how do the traders and investors in our audience implement what you're talking about? Yeah. So, again, I see the world through a very unique set of max. macro factors. You know, I look at, I look at Hal's focus on liquidity, Druck and Miller's focus on liquidity. I have studied insider buying my entire career. I look at what J.D. Henning's doing on momentum. I focus on policy, policy, and then I watch that thing, the FNGD. And the reality is that in this environment, we are, I don't want to say that you use the term the new normal, but there are tools that are in play. There are things that people can use that work, but people are still

very, very frustrated. But work for what? Avoiding risk or capitalizing money? In terms of market, in terms of market timing, I mean, as far as just, I mean, doing something as simple as just looking at the bell curve, the far ends of the bell curve, stocks, you know, up on, up 5% on a week and up on a month and down 5%. I mean, that alone can give you a lot of conviction. And, you know, I go back and I built a system, a momentum strategy on the work of J.D. Henning, on Gary Antonacci, my father-in-law, and what we've been able to do is avoid those massive downturns because we are doing a simple math, it's physics, it's an equation, it's not a model, it's not an algorithm, it's just watching money move and watching how it behaves. And then, as I've said, the insiders have

called the bottom over and over again. Policy has been dictating these markets. And, I remember it was, you know, I know you're reading what I write in, you know, November 20th, I could not have been more bearish. I really couldn't have. And then I wake up in the morning and Japan says they're printing $117 trillion or billion and then I go and I look at SEC Form4.com and see the insider buying spike to the highest level since April of this year. Right.

So you have, right. So you're going to have contradictory signals all the time. It's unavoidable. Sure. Unless you're using. a single variable like me. I just use a 200 day because I'm a dumb dumb. And I think that that's a very good strategy. I think it's good to do things where you have a list of stocks and follow the 20. But if you're using economic signals, market-based signals, price-based signals,

things like insider buying, which is sort of like you have to come up with some sort of systematized way to value what it's doing, meaning you might have one insider who buys so much stock. it's a false signal because it's not being repeated by other buyers and other stocks. Like that's a thing that could happen. It can. Sure. So you have to not only have all of these signals and have nuanced ways of reading them, but then you have the secondary thing where you have to decide which overrides which.

Sure. And I think that's so hard for people to do, right? Because it's like competing thoughts in your mind at the same time. But again, what I continue to just focus on is just capital. in capital out. And that alone has been, you know, what you have to look at, right, is I don't think that Henning and the work that Antinacci have done with momentum systems is enough by itself. There can be false signals. It might just be the S&P 500 bouncing off the 20-day moving average. And then it doesn't break down and it rebounds. What I have seen and what I

have studied is that the work of how when there are, when there is this big negative event that's transpiring, that is tied to liquidity in the system. That is likely tied to repo. That is likely tied to leverage leaving the system in a very quick moment. So I think that it's very important because there's so much damn noise. We've worked in financial media long enough to know that everybody's got an opinion. But things have drastically changed in the financial system, particularly after 2008. We became a refinancing system. And on top of that, as I laid it out, it's really about, keep saying the AI trade, the AI trade. It's not the AI trade. It's the leverage and the passive flows that are providing all the support. And at the end of the day, valuations are

not necessarily as important anymore because valuations continue to, money just continues to come into the system. It flows into these very similar stocks. And then we go RSIMFI overbought. Oh, weird. It's sold off. There are money managers who are regularly buying Apple at a P.E. ratio of 16 and at 32. And then at 40 and then at 24. They don't give a, they don't give a fuck about the valuation. There's nothing to do with it. They might say they do because they sort of have to because they, you know, they went to Wharton and they're speaking to an audience of other people that went to Wharton. Sure. They have to nod to the valuation, but they view their job as explaining the valuation,

not caring about what it is. So at any given moment, they could tell you why 40 makes sense as a trailing PE ratio. They could tell you why 30 makes sense. Right. And the story could change. It made sense last year because of this,

and next year it makes sense because of that. And the job is explaining it, and they're really good at it, and they're buying it either way. Right. Taking new money. apples of 4% weight. Why am I buying it at 40 times earnings? I don't know. I bought it at 30. Nobody stopped me. And you have to, and you also have to know where you are. And if you

prescribe to the, or subscribe to the theory of, you know, what Howe does with liquidity and what, you know, we've talked about in this kind of oscillation, you know, I go back to like, I go back to 2022. I tell this story a lot because I don't think, I don't think. I have respect for the, for the man. Jim Kramer goes on CNBC. And he was very upset because in October 2022, Meta got crushed. And it was a very iconic moment of him, you know, saying, I got this wrong. I got this wrong. I got this wrong. But the reality is it was a, it was a liquidity event that was transpiring that year. And if you turn around and you look at what happens, the moment that the liquidity cycle starts to inflate again, meta goes up from 80 bucks to 700.

And it, again, it's high beta stocks, lots and lots of passive flows. I think it's 1,500 ETF zone meta now. You have the valuation expansion. We have a chart on that that, you know, we pull up in a minute or two. And valuation expansion to your point, drove those equity gains and have done so of every, you know, up and down move that we have had. There it is. Okay.

So it is true that there is earnings growth. Sure. But it's, this is, so this is the whole world. I think that's important to point out. We have had multiple expansion in countries all over the world. And ironically, in the U.S., I think earnings growth has kind of kept pace or outgrown. We might have had multiple compression this year for, for I think the S&P 100, meaning Those stocks grew earnings faster than their prices rose.

But as a global phenomenon, you're absolutely right. I think some of this is like, I'll let you explain the chart in a second, but I think some of this is like just this massive global realization that the U.S. rebounded better from COVID than any other country. And what sets us apart, the breadth and depth of our capital markets have built in this resiliency into the overall economy. And so I think you saw countries around the world get really serious about removing regulations or, in the case of Japan, forcing reformation into their markets and basically

demanding CEOs to create value again. And I think that's been reflected, this like new push toward capital markets as the savior of an economy, here's what you get. you get multiple expansion in England, France, like of all places, right? Germany, Germany at a time that everybody's complaining. Put the chart back up. Tell us what we're looking at. Yeah, tell us what we're looking at. So this, so this is valuation expansion and what drove it. And it's being driven by, effectively, we're still arguing this, that it's being driven by that liquidity cycle.

Again, but it's not, it's not earnings. It's, it's somebody willing to pay $23 for the same earnings that somebody paid for $21 a year ago. And that is, I like, you know, this is the, this is the big question, Josh. And this is, you know, when I look at, when I look at risk in the market, you know, we are at, I believe, 19% of the S&P 500 or U.S. markets is foreign capital. I believe it was 8% in 2008. So more and more money. The question is what, it's almost chicken and like what actually would lead to the market having that valuation compression happen again? And the only thing that I could potentially think of is foreign money leaves. And then from that point, you start to see that valuation compression happen from the

leverage funds and possibly the passives. But at the same time, you've already hit the nail on the head that every two weeks, Americans are just buying the same stock over and over and over again. So, you know, that's my risk. but I don't want to sit here and say that it's going to happen in the next four months because once again, we're pumping $40 billion a month through April. And then you have, what, $117 coming from Japan. And then China is going to start relatively soon.

And that's going to be bullish for copper and bullish for manufacturing for them because they're kind of at the low end of their liquidity cycle right now. We've got two more things to get to. We do this one quickly. New Year's resolution Getting into the pool I got to get back in the pool That's what you want to do

Thursday morning Thursday morning I will be done at Well we're not markets closed But Friday morning When the market When my show is over I am driving to the gym And I will be back in the pool

And I will try to get back up To swimming a mile a day You want to hear what an asshole I am I have three resolutions And they're all about Getting people to leave me alone I wrote these up on my I wrote these up on my blog

and I do it like almost every year it's a good exercise for me but it was like I'm going to stop paying attention to other people's political bullshit and letting it affect me I probably I probably say that every few years

I really mean it this time the second is I'm going to stop being so much for people pleaser and getting myself involved with things I don't want to do just to avoid hurting someone's feelings and I already forgot what my third one was uh well it's hard i mean look it's it's it's it's it's hard to say no i mean

it's it's it's it's hard to say no to people so i know yeah i got to i got to do a better i got to do a better i hate that oh um i said i'm going to be more skeptical i'm going to be skeptical but not cynical right um which i think i already i already blew that today um i'm going to i because i think skepticism leaves room to change your mind or to say, I miss something. Cynicism, it's really hard to, cynicism is like burning the boats. Right. Like, it's really, it's really hard to about face from cynicism.

It's easier to be skeptical and then say, you know what, actually, the ATM machine is helpful. The ETF is a good innovation. Like, if you're cynical about everything new that comes along, you can't change your mind. So, well, again, I think you, one of the, one of the very, when we first, when I first launched the substack, and when it was postcards from the Florida Republic before it became me and the money printer, the slogan of it or the argument of it was, I wanted my audience to

focus on three things, their health, their wealth, and their self. And if you can't do those three things first, get out of other people's business. I mean, that's kind of the way that, the way that I, you know, I want to live my life. And again, and if I can't, if I can't get my act together, I'm not going to be worried about other people's political opinions. All right. So the word of the year, according to whoever's in charge of this stuff, maybe it's Merriam Webster, I forget, is slop, as in AI slop, which probably could become the word of the year next year too. My word of the year, the word that I out of nowhere just heard more of than any other word I can think of this year was grift. I just, I mean, even with this Somali stuff

going on in Minnesota now. I just, I feel like this is like very much in the zeitgeist. Everyone looks at everyone else as though they're grifting. Everyone's a grifter. Okay.

So I thought this was funny. Put this graphic up, guys. This is from a great site called Securities Docket. Grift ETF tied to Washington access in Trump era hits a wall.

So, you know, the guy had Tuttle Capital Management. He did like the anti-crime. I was just having a conversation about him the other day, and I can't remember where. Yeah, I don't know him personally. He's clever, though. He comes up with Matt Tuttle. He comes up with a- He created the inverse.

He created the inverse Kathy Wood. I think that was like the first claim to fame was sorry. Right. And I think at the bottom of the tech market, but that's neither here nor there. All right. Connecticut-based Tuttle Capital Management proposed an exchange traded fund tracking the perceived value of political access, but the machine ran into a wall. The Tuttle Capital Government Gryft ETF, this is true, I'm not making this up, ticker GRFT, is designed to target firms with apparent ties to Washington power brokers from cabinet officials to stock trading lawmakers.

Yet, no major exchange has agreed to list it, according to Matt Tottle. So Eric Bouttun has said, this is the first time I can recall an ETF where they can't list anywhere. Right. Well, and it's funny, too, because this news hits the same day that Trump announced five ETFs today as well. I'm not even aware. The Made in America, with the Made in America focused. And, you know, I think what this is really, what this really showcases. And I think we talked about it last time. Right now, there's 4200 U.S. stocks. There's 4,800 ETFs. And, and what, you know, nonsense. It's nonsense stacked on top of nonsense. You have to, and you have to judge a market or a system by its incentives, and people are incentivized to just create an ETF that tracks the S&P 500, right?

I think we talked about the Catholic ETF, CATH, which is just, it's just the S&P 500, and people are collecting 30 basis points for that. So is that a form of grift? I don't know. I consider it more of a form of extraction. The problem is not more ETA, the problem of, no, the launch of the ETAF is not in and of itself grift. I think just the idea that like grift is so big in the zeitgeist right now that somebody would even come up with the idea of like, well, can we at least invest in it? I thought that was interesting.

It was pointed out, taking care of business loco in the chat said public can do that for you. That's right. Our sponsor public has generated assets. I'm going to see if we can log on there and create a Gryft generated asset portfolio. Somali Daycare ETF would be hot right now. All right. We have like one minute left. I wanted you to just tell me your favorite investment theme or individual idea or whatever for 2026.

We normally end the show with a make the case. So I know you guys have something to say. Still want to see your ministry chart. But yeah, so I have another letter called Postcards from the Edge of the World. And this is a pretty simple theme. It's buying what families in history bought during time. great uncertainty. So I went back and I really assessed what was happening in Judea and in 60 AD, what was happening in periods of when Caesar was around. And the reality is this. They were just

sovereign wealth funds. They were legitimately just investing in choke points in the economy. And we just talked about the concept of grift. I view it through the lens of like extraction. I think that people right now know that they're being nickeled and dined everywhere. and that kind of concept is like, look, the reality is this, if, you know, you want to own, you want to own these things. You want to own things that are pricing in the ongoing expansion cost of insurance. I mean, I just recommended Kinse. You want to own the extractors. I want to invest in the extractors. I want to invest in the extractors. I love that idea. Yeah. All right, let's you and I, let's you and I explore that

idea more thoroughly the next time we chat because that deserves that deserves a I think a bigger a bigger segment you want you want to own what pays what pays rent and it's slow and it's boring and it's cash heavy and it's annoyingly necessary I love it um all right I have a mystery chart I'm gonna I'm gonna stop you okay oh all right let me give you a clue at least I'll give you two clues okay okay all right um one is this is one of the 11 sectors of the s and p 500 um so i'm good you have one out of 11 shot of guessing it and the second clue is uh it's relative it's got a relatively heterogeneous heterogeneous heterogeneous generous how do i want to say that word mix of companies meaning it's not the energy sector where

where they all go up and down together. So now you have a one in ten shot because I told you it's not an energy. So which S&P sector, excluding energy, is this a chart of? And this goes back 15 years? I'm going to say the XLV.

No. Okay. Any other guesses? I'll give you one more. Healthcare. That's the XLV. You guys see him. Sorry. Forgive me, financials.

All right. Got it on the second, guys. Let's go. That's what I actually meant to say. Nailed it. And I said XLV instead. I mentioned health care. I actually was going with financials. All right.

I got a couple of other XLF charts worth all of us looking at. This massive performance in that 15-year chart, this year was interesting. They ran up into the summer. They paused, and now they're off to the races again. I want people to remember, yeah, this is dominated by J.P. Morgan and Bank of America, but you got insurance here. You got alternatives. You got brokerage. You've got payments. There's a lot of different things happening here. Do we have one more? Or is that a total return price percentage? When did a pretty good year? When did Japan print? That's that bottom right there in November, isn't it? And again, it goes. back to the argument that when we engage in support, it's good for banks. And when China does it, it's good for manufacturing and metals because they are a manufacturing economy.

Guys, let's let everybody know Garrett's newsletters. So you've got postcards from the edge of the world, which I love because I'm into history. You've got me and the money printer, which I never miss in addition. And you're doing this market master show. So for the people that are into YouTube and live streaming. Tell us the details. How can they find that? Yeah, so we're at Theotrade.com and we do this show every morning, 845 to about 920. And then the rest of my team, they go live from 930 all the way to 4 o'clock. So we're busy. We're in the room every day doing trading education. And yeah, I do, I've done this morning show. I even did it yesterday after the fish concert. I can't believe I actually got it done. Look at you. You're a beast. And here you are

ending the day on another live stream so hey uh thank you so much for doing this guys follow garrett everywhere he's writing he's fantastic he makes me think i learn things i laugh and uh you will too uh shout out to michael batnik who will be back uh after the first of the year and i do want to yeah in disney i do want to let you guys know we uh this is not a surprise we're letting you know in advance we're actually going to do an impromptu um compound and friends live stream on Friday morning, which I guess is the second. Yep, here we go. So it'll be Ben Carlson, myself, and Michael.

We're going to come on live at 9.30 for the open-up trade of the first day of the year. And I hope you guys can join us. All right, that's it from us tonight. We love you. We'll see you soon. You know,