The Compound and Friends - People Hate These 5 Stocks But They'll Be Wrong with Jonathan Boyar

Episode Date: September 25, 2026

On episode 261 of The Compound and Friends, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Downtown Josh Brown⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and Michael Batnick are joined by Jonathan Boyar of Boyar Asset Management to discuss why stock picking has gotten so difficult, the dangers of buy-and-hold investing, market concentration, AI-driven stock selloffs, and where value investors are finding opportunities today. They get into Uber, Broadridge, Booking Holdings and Airbnb, Pool Corp, Burger King, Comcast, MGM and the casino business, the pressure on sports betting stocks, plus why seemingly great companies can still be terrible investments at the wrong valuation. This episode is sponsored by: Grayscale and Federated Hermes. To learn more, visit https://www.grayscale.com/ Explore their full ETF lineup at ⁠https://federatedhermes.com/ Sign up for The Compound Newsletter and never miss out: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠thecompoundnews.com/subscribe⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Instagram: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠instagram.com/thecompoundnews⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠twitter.com/thecompoundnews⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠linkedin.com/company/the-compound-media/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ TikTok: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠tiktok.com/@thecompoundnews⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Josh Brown are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. The Compound Media, Incorporated, an affiliate of ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Ritholtz Wealth Management⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information. Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Grayscale Disclosure: Grayscale is the world’s largest crypto-focused asset manager based on AUM as of 12/31/2025. For other companies in this category, AUM is considered as of most recent public disclosure. AUM is subject to change. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. For more information, visit grayscale.com  Federated Hermes Disclosure: ETFs are subject to risk and may lose value. Federated Securities Corp., Distributor. Before investing, carefully consider the fund's investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Read this and more information in the prospectus or summary prospectus available at FederatedHermes.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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and expenses. Read this and more information in the prospectus or summary perspective. is available at federatedhermes.com. All right, all right. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the compound and friends. I'm so excited. We have a return guest today. Jonathan Boyer is a principal, the Boyar Value Group,

which includes Boyar Ascent Management, and Boyar's intrinsic value research, an independent equity research boutique founded in 1975, whose subscribers include some of the world's largest, sovereign wealth funds, hedge funds, mutual funds, and family offices. He also hosts the world according to Boyar podcast. Jonathan, welcome back to the show. We're so happy to see you.

Thanks for having me back. Yeah. When do we have Jonathan on? I was going to say, we had him in the summer during the sassp— late spring, early summer, during the saspocalypse. And a lot of the stuff he was talking about ended up being right. We've seen some pretty big comebacks. in some of his technology names.

Do I add that right? Not all the stuff. Not everything, but like nobody's perfect. Broken clock twice a day. No, no, don't say that. You were, I think pretty bullish on CRM. And the stock was hammered at that point. And obviously the picture has now changed.

They have partnered with Anthropic rather than having their throat slit by it. I don't think a lot of people felt bullish at the time. time, but you did. Yeah. So, so congratulations on that one. No, thank you. We're starting to get a similar setup now over the last couple days. It's interesting. Okay. So we're going to get into that. Michael, why don't you, why don't you take us into the first thing we want to talk about? I will. I'm excited to talk with a lifelong stock picker. Before we get into the first topic of how difficult stock picking is, you know, I'm a very gullible man. And, And the first time that the three of us were in studio together, Josh said that you were of the famed chef boy R.D. family. And I bought it. I bought it a hook, line, and sinker. I really thought that you were, that you were, that I was talking to royalty.

Sorry, sorry to disappoint. But my whole town, all of them actually, like, I had probably six or seven people come up to me and ask if I was really from from that. So you weren't the only one. You were in good company. Josh is very convincing. Yeah, I sold it. Well, two things. Chef Boyardee was a real person. I think he was making Italian food in Cleveland or something. I don't think it was spelled the way they ended up spelling it on the can, but it was a real guy. That's one.

Two, do you know what your last name means? It means noble, which is really ironic since we were thrown out of Russia. We were slaves. But before you were thrown out of Russia, before the program. The boy, the boyar was like the mayor of the town. And in German, they called it Burger. So everyone you know with a last name Burger, that person somewhere in their line, they were descended from a guy that ran a town.

So those are two different versions of the same word. So you were a mayor McChese way back. Somebody in your bloodline was an organizer, was an important person. All right. Wait, but in all seriousness, Jonathan does come from a line of stock pickers. Your father has been in this business for a long time. So Josh and I did this on what are your thoughts, but I wanted to share it with you. We have some data from Adam Parker on how difficult stock picking is, particularly when you

benchmark yourself to the S&P or if you even expanded to not just the S&P, but the top 2,000 stocks. But before we show the data, you've been doing this for a long time. did this surprise you? And how is your experience as a stock picker changed over the last 20 years in terms of just wherever you want to go? Is it harder? Does it require more patience?

Does it require the opposite? Like, do you need to be trading more? How is your strategy evolved over time, given that the landscape, whether it's market structure, the companies today, clearly things look a hell of a lot different in every way possible than they do today than when you started? Yeah, I think that article was like buy and hold is dead. I think there was something. It's a it's a it's a it's a it's a buy and hold doesn't work. Buy it home. I don't think it ever worked. I I I kind of reject the premise of buy and hold. I think buy and hold is a result of an investment strategy, not an investment strategy in

and of itself. It's good. So that's that's kind of how if you are a good stock picker and you're able to find great companies and buy it at a reasonable or an attractive price, hold on to it. But continuously reevaluated. This is not, you know, you're not married to the stock. You have to constantly see two things. One, how's the business doing? Are they executing, you know, how's the competition, etc?

And if it's going fine, keep it. And valuation. Is it selling at a rate? reasonable multiple. I would say most of our accounts at Boyer Asset Management are taxable. So we're extremely tax sensitive. So I'm fine if something gets a little bit overvalued because you basically have to, you know, you have to find something that's 25% better, essentially. I mean, the math is not exactly that way. So it's okay. Just I think if you are able to find, I think they said there's only like 23 or 24 stocks that outperformed the S&P

500 or 23 percent. John, chart on. So you're right. Keep talking, Jonathan. Yeah, about 20. So if you can find one of those, stick with it. But you have to be prepared to look really different than most people. And most people don't like to be different.

You have to be prepared to have lots of concentration because these stocks are to become disproportionate parts of your portfolio. And you also have to be prepared to have years where things go against you. You know, the beginning of this year was horrible for a lot of our accounts because we own Microsoft. And I felt like a moron when it went from 579 or whatever it was, wherever it went. But, you know, now it's back. I would have been, I would never have known when to buy it back. And my clients would, if I was smart enough to buy it at the top, which is impossible.

And then buy it again when it, you know, truck. And my clients would have been. really worse off. So you have to just stick with it and unless things get blatantly overvalued. And that happens. You know, I don't know, we're big, I think you have a Warren Buffett or Charlie Munger thing behind you there, I think. Yeah. It's my fat. It's my goat. Yeah. I mean, he's the go. But he said, he traded all the time. Trated all the time. If, you know, if something lasted two or three years, he generally kept it or four years. But he. He's. said one of his biggest mistakes ever was in 1998 not selling Coca-Cola when it was at 60 times

earnings great business terrible valuation and since then it dramatically underperformed the S&P 500 and he wasn't able to invest it in things that were higher you know returning so you have to be you have to be careful with both things and you have to pay attention with both things I have this concept in mind when I think about Buffett and probably some of the great investors is like, first of all, people trade around positions. Like, if you think about the way the way people talk about stocks on TV, let's say, or the way you sell sign analysts talk about stocks when they put a buy rating, a sell rating, whatever, it seems so black and white. like I like the stock I'm buying this. You might like a stock, but you might want to take 20% of it off. That doesn't mean you don't like it anymore.

That could mean it's gone up so much that it's become a concentrated position in your portfolio. It could mean there are three other names that you just need capital to allocate to. It could mean so many things. We don't talk about position sizing and trading around positions on TV, almost because it's like a gotcha moment. Like the way it's presented to the audience is, uh-oh, are you're losing faith in Apple? No. The stock is, the stock's up a thousand percent over 10 years. I'm taking some off.

Is that okay with you? So the, am I a bull, am I a bear? That's problematic. But it's the way the media talks about stocks. But I think that concentration is okay. I mean, it's a lot harder for an individual investor to do it. And, you know, anytime you're, sold Apple pretty much, it's been wrong. And those trims were a bad idea in retrospect.

And I don't think there's anything wrong with having a 15% position, 10% position in Microsoft if it grew that way. Why not? I mean, if you own the, if you own the S&P 500, you have a 6% position in it anyway. So I think, yeah, I, you know, I just had Chris Mayer, who's great. He wrote a book called 100 Baggers on my podcast, and he talks about the dangers of trimming. And most of the time, doing nothing is the best thing someone can do. Because, I mean, even when you trim, you trim that apple, you're going to have a big gain and you're going to have to pay Uncle Sam. Yeah. Put the chart back up.

It's not just that stock picking this hard. So what this is showing is the percentage of stocks beating the S&P 500 over the last three years. It's so this is, this is Adam, only 23.2% of the 3%. of the top 500 U.S. stocks held for 10 years beat the index. Brutal. For three year holding periods,

for three year holdings, the hit rate is 27.7%. But it looks like it's getting harder over time is the message of what Adam was saying. Do you guys have an opinion? What are the factors that's making it actually getting worse and worse and worse? The chart is going from 2002.

through today. So it's like a bit of progression. The obvious answer is that since at least 2017, it's been the Fang stocks, the Mac 7, it has been concentration. But it is also true that that line was going down well before Apple became the dominant company. So I don't know that we're ever going to get a level

where it's back up to 60% of, first of all, that would be ridiculous. Why would you expect 60% of stock? to beat the stock market. Could it get back up to 50%? Yeah. If there was an AI meltdown, if Apple and Vida, Google meta, whatever, if they all go down 70%, I would hope that there will be other stocks that are outperforming them.

But absent that, I think it's going to continue to be very difficult. Yeah. Yeah. I fully agree with Michael. And if you look historically, over the last 20 years, the equal weight has significantly underperform the cap-weighted index, and that kind of proves the point there. But there have been periods of time where that hasn't happened. I think over time, most stocks are not going to outperform the S&P 500. So here's why. Here's why. Think about market structure today. This is not how

individuals invest, but this is how the market works. Money moves to where it is treated best, and money is treated best with the best companies. So the idea that most stocks, forget about the stock pickers, that most stocks are going to be treated equal to the other best companies. That's just not the case. It's not going to happen. So, Jonathan, as far as how your stock picking strategy goes, when I'm looking at your portfolio or the list of stocks that you do research on and we'll hear about this later in the show, I don't view you as a deep value investor.

You're not only the biggest pieces of shit that are trading at 11 times earnings. But you are, you are a value investor and your portfolio is not one thing. I think he's more garpy than value. I know he calls himself value, but. It's hard to change a name. I have all these signs. I have everything else. But on the growth side, like, your companies tend to be high single digit mid-teens growers.

Like, you are investing in businesses that you believe are good companies. You know, we've morphed. When my dad started the business, and it's how time, you know, how the market has changed in the 70s, it was buying net nets. you were buying, you know, cigar butt investing. That's what worked. That's been totally, you know. What is that?

Can you describe it? It's like a business that you know is in decline. Yeah. But it's like the market has overdone it on the valuation. So you buy it like knowing it's not a great business, but it's just so ridiculously oversold. In terms of a cigar, but yeah, you have like kind of one like final puff at it. And it's a, it was a great way.

Buffett was doing that. Yeah, it was a great way to do it when you had no competition. No one even barely had a calculator. You had to go to the New York Public Library to get, you know, information. That world is gone. If you're a deep value investor, you're investing in, you know, broken retailers. That doesn't work. Deep value is maybe the worst strategy on the planet.

It's terrible. It might have like small periods of, you know, outperformance. They're very, very small. I want to buy something that I can hold. Hopefully, I mean, it's impossible. No one can tell five, ten years in the future, but you have the chance of owning it for five, ten, 15 years, a great business, a dominant business,

or something that's unique. And I would say, you know, if you had to say, are you growth or you value on value, but I would say I'm an opportunist. I want to make money for myself and my clients. And how I do it is, you know, try to buy something for less than it's worth. Do you take any price signals into account in your research?

Do you, because I read your stuff, but you don't get into technicals, really. But I'm sure, like, you want to know if a stock is currently going up or going down or, like, how else do you gauge sentiment, if not for technicals, I guess would be the question. I mean, we look at it a little bit, but we try and blind it out as best as we can. But we also, you don't want to catch a falling knife. You know, one of the stocks will talk about, you know, pool corp, we can talk about it later, you know, that stock looked somewhat cheap at 400. It looked cheaper at 300. It looked even cheaper at 200. Fortunately, we didn't buy it. But you have to, you know, you have to pick your

spots. You don't want to get in front of a freight train. That's just a recipe to lose money. So you do care. If you see a stock that spends a year in decline and then all of a sudden stops going down, even on continued bad news, that's a technical. That's a technical signal. That's buyers and sellers. The fundamentals are what they are. But like the signal there is, wait a minute, there's nobody left to sell anymore. The news is horrible and the stock's going up. Yeah. Or even if a stock's somewhat in free fall, maybe I'll buy a 2% position with the hope of adding more later on because no one's ever going to be able to pick a bottom. It's impossible. Yeah. But there's also, the market is so fast moving that like the last couple days, you had an

opportunity to buy some of these travel stocks for idiotic reasons that the chart didn't look good, but I'm like, why not take a chance on these? So let's get, let's get into the current environment because it is a very interesting time to be an investor. AI stuff aside, well, obviously involved, but there's just a lot of things happening in the market. So one of them in 2026 in particular is that one of the better performing investment strategies this year was to buy the junkiest stocks.

And I do mean like quantitatively junkie and short the most highest quality undervalued businesses. So Julian Clemogicco has a chart that shows the Goldman Sachs most shorted basket is up 40% year to date. The most shorted. So companies that hedge fund managers are saying are the biggest pieces of crap while the, so I'm sorry. So the most short of basket is up 40%.

So the long short is down 23%, which is unbelievable. And I think McDonald's is a great example of this. McDonald's is in free fall right now. I would think that this is a quality business, not just me saying it's quality, but if you look at return on equity and the things that are quantifiable, it is a quality business. And yet, the stock is in freefall. It's down 29% over the last 144 days.

It peaked, I think, in February. And this sort of crash is really. really rare. You had this during COVID, I believe, but before that, you had to go to the dot-com bubble. And McDonald's is just one of many stocks that are in freefall. Quality is not bailing anybody out this year. It's not working as a factor. You fish in this pond. Well, I mean, I gave a presentation earlier this year on, is there a quality bubble and compared it to the nifty 50 and had names like Sintas in there? Costco. Costco. And these names, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, It's kind of like going back to the Coca-Cola example.

It's hard to make a money if you buy a stock at 60 times earnings. Walmart, I think was Walmart 50? I know Costco is up there. I think Walmart's 40, 50 times earnings. It's crazy. It's hard to make an investment case. I mean, if you have a really, really long-term investor, sure, if you're looking out 30 years, the math works. But, I mean, I think that's when buy and hold doesn't work.

Oh, and it's even worse than that. Like, it sneaks up on you, but then you get into a situation where you're buying a quality company, they stumble. Yeah. And not only does it get dragged down because earnings are falling, but the, like, the multiple that you started at is so high. Yeah. You could have a stock getting cut in half, still not be cheap. Yeah. Like, I feel like Nike is a poster chart.

Like, Nike had an above market multiple pretty much forever. And that really worked against the buy and hold crowd because not only did it come down on falling earnings for, I don't know, going on five years in a row now, but also the multiple keeps derating. So actually as bad as the fundamental outlook is, the stock is even worse than that. And that phenomenon is just an absolute killer for the buy and hold investor. It just, it crushes you. And it sneaks up on you. You can't see it coming until you're already stuck in the middle of it. Yeah.

Has it always been like the chat, Jonathan, or is that a more recent phenomenon where once the stock is done, it's just. Well, it comes back. I mean, I mean, you talked to McDonald's. You know, McDonald's in the early 2000s, I think, as you alluded to, you know, was a broken stock. And it took a few years. It took, I think, two or three CEOs.

One of them had to have a heart attack in order for it to happen. I mean, it was a problem. So, yeah, I mean, this is, I think that's a fee. of the market. You just, that's, that's what it is. And, you know, catching these, trying to catch these falling knives are difficult. But I think that's why you have to pay attention. Why is Nike going down? I mean, I think that's the reason. Its products aren't resonating with consumers. It's, you know, it tried to go direct. It tried to bypass all of their retailers. It's everything wrong. It was a, you know, it was a masterclass on what not to do.

They told, they told Foot Locker to go fuck themselves. That was like their number one. retailer. They thought they would be pure direct-to-consumer selling through Nike.com in the app. They pissed off Amazon. They put up a Nike store at Amazon and then they sort of like backtracked. So they lost shelf space in all the retailers like Dix and like all the places that matter. They're riding the Jordan brand like 30 years after Michael Jordan retired. It's like sort of unbelievable, but that's still their top brand.

It's everything that could possibly go wrong has gone wrong. And they have stronger competitors now than they ever did. And also the athletes so need them. It still might not be a buy. It still might not be attractive. And it's also the athletes don't need them anymore. Like before Michael Jordan, not thinking, I mean, it helped launch Nike and also helped launched his career.

Now athletes can go direct to consumers. So the Nike is less relevant as a platform. So it's one that I have just passed on. You could make a lot of money for. here, I think there are a lot easier ways to make money. One thing that happens that I think is unique, not I think. One market dynamic that is different today than the 70s that I think provides opportunities for investors.

One of the dumbest things that happens and you see it all the time is this basket trading. So something happens. Most recently, these apps, instinct and muse, which are unbelievable. I feel like this is the consumer app that we've all been waiting for. Holy shit. And one of the things that it does for you very easily is it goes through your subscriptions and it can either cancel or whatever. So there is, it's an AI assistant.

So there's a basket, a consumer inertia basket from Goldman Sachs. And ever since the launch of these AI agents, the stocks are, the stocks are getting killed. And so Planet Fitness, all right, I get it. Like cancel my damn subscription. What am I still doing there? But New York Times, this stock is down. 7.2% over a couple of days, this has not, this is not, this is not at risk at all for disruption

because of Muser instinct. This is a hardcore loyal audience. The business is on fire. They think that Muse and Instinct are going to tell the user, hey, you have like 12 subscriptions that you never use. Yes, but there's no thinking, Josh. This is the point. It's in a basket of stocks. And so it is programmatically happening. There's nobody thinking it's the Kwan shops. So Jonathan, for people like you, when you see this and Expedia and booking, which we'll talk about, you must lick your lips because you know historically what happens to some of these business that you followed for a long time when some of the automation competition comes in because you've seen this before. Yeah. I mean, booking and Airbnb,

why it was in that basket and how Goldman comes up with these baskets, I have no idea. it's absolutely ridiculous and this will turn out to be, I think, a great buying opportunity. I don't know why some of those banks are in there. I mean, are you going to- Schwab's in here, Josh. Remember I was asking the other day, what the hell is going on as Schwab? How is this a inertia stock? Oh, no, I forgot I had an account that Schwab.

Let me move it. What? Makes no sense. You know, well, it's not, I don't. It's a cash sweep, I think. It's in the basket. It's in that basket. Yeah, I think so Schwab is funny.

You could set your watch by this. Anytime there's a disruptive AI product on the tape, like, that's the poster. Like, let's go beat the shit out of Schwab. Adobe's in, we should make a list of the stocks you know are going to be down anytime people get excited about AI. This is probably a reflexive counter trade there. But Josh, in fact, how stupid this is. Ameriprise, what does that do with this?

When Hazel launched and Schwab and LPL and Ray J felt 10%. We were like, what in the hell? And then when Vanguard actually bought Hazel, bought altruist, which could ostensibly, which is going to compete with Schwab, Schwab was down like 40 basis points. There is so much computerized trading that is providing opportunities for people that know what they're doing. Yeah. I mean, I think I don't have statistics to back this up, but there are huge.

I feel like there's been disproportionate moves in stocks. I think a lot of it has to do with these pod shops that get, these guys get fired if they're down two or three percent and they blow them out of the positions. I mean, I think that's a horrible way to manage money, but that's a whole other, you know, thing to, to discuss. That's a really good, that's a really good point. Like, they're, so the most popular format for a hedge fund these days is not a standalone long short manager, like battling it out with the rest of the market, the market.

the market's wrong, I'm right. Like, that's sort of, I'm not going to say it's gone, but the flows are not going to those funds the way they used to. The flows now go to millennium. And firms like that, 0.72 is now like a pod shop. Like, the flows are going to these fund of fund platforms. You got like six guys in a group, and their purview is like they only do this type of trade.

But they're told when they're hired. like you're going to have a really short leash and we're not going to give you six months for a theme to play out. And if you're down like 5% in the course of a month, you're going to be dragging down the total returns of the whole thing. And we're going to scrutinize that. And so I think that's the right take. It's like, oh my God, this stock's down 5%. Should we take advantage of it? And the risk manager is like, no, actually, you should get flat right now.

reduce your exposure immediately and start putting these photographs of you and your daughter at the swimming pool into a cardboard box because you're not going to get another week to do this. And that exacerbates the losers. Yeah. And probably the winners are on the short side. And selling begets selling. It just a loop. It eventually ends. But yeah, I think this creates opportunities.

I think you get, it creates opportunities for very short. term oriented people who kind of look at fundamentals and people like myself who are looking three, five, ten years down the line because you're able to get these great entry points. And, you know, you just, you kind of, you take what the market gives you. And I think it's giving you some opportunities now. Okay. Let's talk about them. What are you most excited about?

What stock am I most excited? I don't want to do, I don't want to do a repeat of last time. But just for the record, I think my Uber, I still love, MSG sports and Atlanta Braves Holdings, great stocks. Give me an update on, give me an update on the Uber thesis, because my take is nothing they say matters. It's hard to disprove a negative. The street just does not give a shit. All right. So now Dara just bought, how much did he just spend buying stock for himself?

I think $10. And the CFO, I think, did five. And stock still won't go up. The stock went down the next day. So now they're doing a buyback, corporate buyback. The insiders are buying. They actually have concrete like robotaxy partnerships on the streets of multiple cities with multiple partners. It doesn't matter.

This feels like it's going to trade it 12 times earnings. Directionally, that feels like where it's headed. I think it's almost impossible if it's going to continue growing a 20 to 30% a year for the stock to stay the way it is. I can't tell you what the catalyst is, but you have a great business, and this is one that you hold on to. I think this is an example of a buy and hold because the fundamentals of the business are great. Why don't they just buy back 20% of the shows that? Why don't they do a tender offer? if you were advising Uber talking to the investor relations people, the corporate treasurer,

the CEO, like hypothetically, so you've been involved in a lot of stocks that were way underpriced relative to their growth over the years. How do you get a happy ending here? What would you be telling them that they could be, besides running the business and executing, which obviously that's what they're doing, what would you be telling them on like the management of the stock market side? If they think that they are still able to invest in the business, and I would say they should put whatever they do,

they need to invest in the business and have a little cash cushion and then just buy stock as much as they possibly can. Tender's not a terrible idea. I like these insider purchases. Dara had been a seller until recently. I think it's a great signal of the market. But I think you just have to be patient. in that long. Every year, this is either my best or worst performing stock.

How much free cash flow are they going to generate in 27? It was like 10 billion or something. Insane number. Yeah. Relative to the market cap. It's crazy. I'm doing it from memory, but I think it's something like $10 billion. I mean, they're executing. They're doing everything right. At some point, they'll be rewarded. I think the bear case is silly. But, you know, they're making equity investments in fleets of autonomous vehicles, which was something that two years ago they said they're not interested in doing. But I think from their perspective, they need to seed the market with

fleets that are not Waymo and Tesla. Like, they need to get cars on the road. And the fastest way to do that is to give money to the OEMs that are making the cars or to invest in fleets that are coming along from like third party AI companies. So they're doing that in Europe, in the United States, in Asia. The market is giving them no credit for any of these investments being good investments. Are you surprised by that? No, I mean, it's market, you know, does what the market does. It hasn't been that long. I mean, this was a $100 stock not too long ago. So I think it just have to be patient. You know, it's one of those things. It's frustrating, but it is what it is. Josh Josh and I are tend to be certainly with broken stocks a little bit technically cautious where we wait for the sellers to stop before we dip our toe.

And then most of the times we end up being wrong like everybody else and we sell at lower prices. You know that meme, did it work for you? No, but it might work for me. That's what it's usually like when you buy these broken stocks. But sometimes, sometimes, sometimes in the case of these businesses, the turn happens faster than you can catch up. to it. I think meta is a really great example of that. You can't wait for a technical setup because the news can happen overnight. And who knows, same thing could happen with Uber where there's a headline, stock gas up 10% and it just doesn't let you win. So that's a great, that's a great point.

And the thing that meta and Uber have in common, in both cases, these were not broken businesses. Not at all. These are just stocks that fell out of favor. Meta's last earnings report was fucking great. And the one before it and the outlook. Same with Uber. Like they haven't, they've done nothing with their earnings estimates. Like they, the guidance is intact from January. It just, so it's definitely a broken stock, but not at all. Is this a broken business? And if you decided to exit the stock and wait until something happens, are you going to buy a 20% higher? That's the problem. That's the psychology of it. And, you know, I'm, you know, that's why I you know you take your pain but I think the pain will be well worth it.

You put out this fresh looks thing and I love it and I couldn't read every stock on your list. But you go you said you go through your universe of 200 stocks and see. There it is. No, dude, it's awesome. And we'll at the end of the show, we'll tell people how they can get a copy of it. But you go through your universe of 200 stocks and you ask yourself, which of these names deserves a fresh look? What do you mean by that? Like stocks you haven't written about in a while and a lot has happened?

It could be. It could be. Or we've written about it relatively recently and a lot still has happened. And we just want to let our subscribers know that this is the time to really take a fresh look at the company. And it's, and the theme in most of them is now there's been significant multiple compression. The businesses are fines to improving. And I think investors have a great setup. And I, you know, we, I think we did 14 names this year on it.

And our subscribers love it. And I think it's, they're names in an AI dominated market that are worth, you know, taking a look at. I want to ask you before we get into the end of it. individual names, there has been a lot of multiple compression in the market this year. Every sector, every sector except for staples. Yeah. So is that interest rates and oil? What's behind?

Like, we can't just say, oh, it's AI. Yeah. Because that would be dumb because AI is actually fueling the earnings growth. So maybe in some cases, it's the perceived threat of AI. But like, how difficult is it to still like some certain stocks in a five, percent 10-year interest rate world, or do you not really think that that's a valid conclusion to draw? I think it's not a valid conclusion to draw if you take a three or four-year period because

we've been, stocks have done well in those type of interest rates environments. It's been quite a while, and I think it's going to take investors a long time, a couple of years to get used to investing in a world where money isn't free. I mean, the 90s had 5% tenure. Yeah. And stocks are just fine. I mean, what about the 80s? I mean.

But do you think, whether or not it's valid aside, do you think that that is the primary reason for all of the multiple compression that we're seeing? Because other people believe that. I think I don't think you can pin it to one thing. I think that's a significant factor. I think the AI threat on some of these names is another reason. I still think in certain businesses, there's still COVID hangover as well, even though it's still a few years, one of the names, Pool Corp, you know, that I can talk. about in a minute. I know it's it's Michael's favorite stock. So I can't wait to get yelled up by him. Pool Corp needs to pivot from digging swimming pools to digging graves.

Same equipment, smaller holes. Let's start with Broadridge just because that's the first one we have in front of us. What is this company? What's wrong with it? I mean, Broadridge is, I wouldn't say does the plumbing of the financial system, but it helps you, let's say, do proxie. It has lots of businesses. If you're a company and you need to vote your proxies because you're required to by the SEC, they do that. They do all the boring things. This was a spin out of, I believe, ADP years ago and it was a fantastic stock for many years. And it's stubbed its toe recently.

So it's just ingrained. We like these companies that are ingrained in regulatory, heavy businesses that are that they're needed. And people are a monopoly, too. And it's essentially a monopoly. I mean, their market share. According to you guys, 80% of all proxy votes they handle, among other things, it's not their only business, but it's 63%, I'm sorry,

their recurring revenue is 63% of total revenue. And yet, this stock's been around forever. And this is its second worst drawdown. Since the GFC, I mean, this is a steady, this is like a toll booth business typically. Yeah. And but you know, people remind you, though, didn't FISA blow up like a year ago?

And it was in the sort of in the sort of in the, the same position. FISA have had all these boring back office financial businesses, and there was tons of reliability. And then I guess the CEO ran it off the cliff or something. But like, it went from being this boring thing to a stock that fell 20% in one day. I think the CEO ended up working for the Trump administration, sold his stock at basically the high, didn't have to pay any capital gains or had them deferred. And it looked like, I don't want to say he was cooking the books. That's not what he was doing. There was some shit going on.

There was some not kosher stuff. So, yeah. Broadridge is a legit company. It's well run. They cross-sell. Like, for example, if you're a money manager and you have all these shareholder lawsuits that come to you because you own shares, they'll take care of it for you for a fee, where they'll go in, they'll file your claims, et cetera.

They have a lot of these boring little businesses. that do really well. It's an interesting company that, you know, has had decent multiple compression. It's a good business. As Michael said, it's kind of a toll booth type business. And it's worth up, you know, for- Why is it a question? And what for 280? It's now 160 and it was way, way lower.

Is this, yeah, to Josh, is this AI stuff? Like, what's happening? People are worried that these token, you know, one of the bare cases is these tokens that where you can trade stocks, they're not going to have to. do proxies, et cetera, for them. I mean, there are a lot of just things that just don't make a heck of a lot of sense for it. And it's been a sentiment-driven name.

Yeah, I think it's driven, like, about 25% this year gone down. I mean, it's... How big is this company? This company, enterprise value about $20 billion or so. So it's a real business. Okay. Could it, like, could it get acquired? I mean, I think it's, you know, with interest rates as high, who

knows, but it could be. I mean, it wouldn't, it wouldn't shock me. A lot of the businesses, because of the way we look at it, end up being acquired. So when you look at this, though, you don't need that to happen. You don't need a catalyst. From your perspective, the market is irrationally derating the stock. And when the dust settles, people realize they weren't displaced at all. They weren't, they weren't disrupted at all by AI. You might even get a benefit in terms of using AI internally, which could actually sort of. serve to enhance the profitability, and they'll keep their monopoly over all of these little businesses. Yeah, I mean, we generally want a catalyst. And I think you can, if you had to stretch

the catalyst was, will be people finally realizing AI or tokens are not going to kill their business. So it's a similar story to the insight that you had with Salesforce, similar in Broadridge and as well as booking. So if you know the businesses, you could sit back and laugh. I mean, I know it's not fun when these companies are getting sold into oblivion. But for booking, which is a company that you own, and that's booking.com and price sign and kayak. You said that Chachybtee tried to do this in September 2025. They launched instant checkout. And then by March, they said, never mind.

Actually, not that easy. And Google tried to do this. So it's the same thing. It's like, it's headline basket selling. And you're like, wait a minute, hello, this is not going to happen. We've been here and done that. So what's the story with these AI? and the trip advisor type stuff.

Yeah, I mean, I think that this is a really dumb rationale. They're saying that Muse is going to be able to, you know, do this whole book you a hotel, et cetera. How are they going to do it? How are they going to call all these, you know, booking specializes? And that's why we like it more than Expedia in these small boutique hotels. They don't have, some of them don't even have websites. They have relationships with all of these proprietors.

They help them with their business. The EU has tremendous amount of regulation when it comes to travel. Muse isn't going to do all this stuff. They're going to use booking. This is a positive for booking. Of course, it's going to use the site, no? I'm in the middle on this. Part of me is like, does anybody even want one-click booking?

like don't don't you want to know like what the room size is and what hotel you're staying at and like I don't think people actually want one click I do think what the agents will do and booking will probably build their own agent so but I do think what people want is instantly what is the cheapest room that is over 500 square feet has a good view and is on the west end of the Las Vegas strip, the north end of Las Vegas strip instead of the South. Like people want that. They want their answer spat back at them instantly. That's not the same as I want to skip the booking process and just instantly have a

room. Yeah. Maybe in some cases for really savvy travelers or for business, if you already know where you want to stay. Yeah. So for example, I know I'm going to this hotel anyway. So maybe it's like book me a room at this hotel, the same room I book every year. Or, but, yeah, but booking has a loyalty program where you get, you know, breakfast or whatever it is.

These companies are going to want to use booking. And also, Mews doesn't have inventory. Do you know how hard it is to get inventory throughout the world to do this? Mews just can't like snap their fingers. You know, if Google couldn't do it, if TripAdvisor couldn't do it. if TripAdvisor couldn't do it, I see no reason why they will be able to do it. Glenn Fogel has run this thing since I think 2004. He's done a fantastic job transitioning the company through a variety of perceived.

This company is now dead. And I think this is going to be a positive and not a negative for the business. Jonathan, in September alone, the stock went from 215 down to 157. It's crazy how violent. these AI-driven sell-off saw. I haven't seen anything like this. You know what else is funny? Travel, I think.

I read this somewhere. Travel might be the number two or number three contributor to Google's ad revenue. Wow. I think it's like the number two or three category of ad spend on Google is travel, which tracks with your own life experience, right? Think about how much time you spend like searching for hotels, vacations, flight, like it's a, it's a big one. Yeah. It's so funny, this idea that like Gemini is just going to do all that shit for you

so you don't have to search. Well, is that going to be necessarily great for Google that all those searches for travel related stuff go away and the ad revenue associated with them? Like, I don't, I don't know. Is that, is that revenue neutral for Google or maybe worse? Yeah. Yeah, that's outside of my purview. But I, I, what I do know is, is a company like booking. And the one that's, I think, even more ridiculous where it took it down hard was Airbnb. Makes no sense.

I mean, what Amuse is now going to go directly to every single homeowner who's renting their home to see if they want to rent it out to someone. I mean, it's just these things are nonsensical. And Airbnb was on fire. The stock gapped up, I don't know, 10% ran from 150 to 190. Now it's back down to 150. So you need like serious nerve to buy and hold stocks these days, individual stocks.

It's hard. Yeah. It's hard. But if you don't, if you're able to really tell yourself, you're going to have that two, three, four view, it's much easier as an individual. As a money manager who gets graded and can get fired, that's much harder. Put up the forward, put up the forward P.E. multiple. No offense. This could just be getting started.

like the business could be great, but the multiple could keep derating. Like we know 15 times is not the bottom. Oh, absolutely. Okay. Yeah. Okay. You could be right on the fundamentals and still wrong on the stock, which is the danger for everybody in all of these stocks.

Yeah. No. Okay. Yeah. Do you have a catalyst here? Well, one, if oil going down, I think will be significantly, beneficial for the company, which also, obviously, if things are solved in Iran, that's helpful. And just general fears over AI disruption.

Plus more, you know, I think those are what's going to make the stock kind of ascend in value. There's no one concrete thing that you're going to put your hat to. Okay. Am I stupid? I actually disagree with you. I think one announcement with OpenAI and the de-rating is over. Yeah. We just saw that with sales. Force. He brings Dario on stage at Dreamforce and they hold hands and raise them together

like two prize fighters at the end of a match. And that's it. It's over. Yeah. Now it's a new story. Yeah. Right. Like why don't they all just do deals with Sam Altman or with Dario and put an end to this bullshit? Is that the fastest way to fix this problem? I think what they want to do pay less attention to the stock price and do what's best for the business. And to sign a deal prematurely to one or the other giving exclusivity, etc. It may solve your temporary stock price problem. But I think you want to figure out, you know, this is still very new.

I mean, you know, first chat CBT was in the lead. Then Claude, now back to chat CBT. Who knows who you want to go to? They don't want to get married. Yeah. Start dating. Jonathan, let's talk about one of the biggest pieces of shit stock on the planet, pool corp.

So over the last two years, we know, we know residential construction is a disaster. Over the last two years, new pool construction in the U.S. averaged approximately 60,000, the lowest level in over a decade. I guess fortunately, whatever, pool corp is the largest wholesaler distributor. So it's a low capital intensity business. They're just a distributor. They're not building the product. But my God, man, this stock just keeps going lower and lower and lower.

It's taking another like lower down. What does it mean? What does it mean? What does it mean distributor? So they independent companies that build pools by their equipment from pool corp. Like chemicals, filters, all that kind of stuff. So construction, maintenance. Yes.

Mostly maintenance. But yes. Okay. So you would think like you build a pool, you're not going to fill it in with cement two years later. Yeah. You would think the installed base for swimming pools has grown substantially just in the last 10 years. And that's anewitized revenue. You have to treat your pool all summer, every summer.

You can't take a year off. You'll have an algae pond. Yeah. So, but it doesn't seem to matter. So what is the market rate to stock based on new pool construction only? Is it the only thing they care about? Well, revenue hasn't really grown because from, during the COVID era, it grew like 27% annualized.

So there was a lot of pull forward kind of demand. And now it's- Everyone got to pull all at once. Everyone got to pull all at once. Everything is now starting to normalize. And that's why you see the stock go from $500 and whatever to $167 a share. Now you're buying it at 15 times earnings,

which is roughly what it's cheap enough. Well, I mean, that's what it traded for in the financial crisis and what it traded for after 9-11. So I think, you know, and, you know, dot-com bust. So I think that's it's, I mean, this stock, and this goes back to the Coke Cole example, sold for 55 times earnings in, at the height of COVID. This did? Yeah, 55 times.

People thought it, people thought it was a compounder. People thought, yeah, they're going to build this many pool. They thought everyone in the country was going to have a pool, essentially. Berkshire Hathaway, Berkshire Hathaway, Todd Combs bought this, and then Todd Combs left Berkshire, and they dumped the whole position.

Yeah, that's what he seems to do. Yeah, I wouldn't read too much into that Warren hates this. I think it was just, he left, let's sell his, let's sell the stuff.

I feel like Berkshire could be the type of company that just buys this whole thing. Is this the type of thing where you say, all right, obviously I was wrong on the stock. It's down so much, but maybe there's an opportunity to be rest of,

by some sort of white night? I mean, I would prefer that not to happen because I think... That would be terrible for you. I mean, we just, a little background. We wrote this up in 2009. We did an issue discussing, you know, now it's a time to buy consumer-oriented stock. So we did Pool Corp at $20. We did Marriott.

We did a few of these names. We hadn't revisited it until the summer. Wow. So for the last couple of years, we've been tempted. We really wanted to write it up, but it just didn't get cheap enough. But when we wrote it up this summer, I think it was 17 times, maybe 18 times. We're like, wow, it could get a little cheaper and it has. But it is a cheap, cheap stock now.

Put up the chart of annual new pool construction in the U.S. Is this like, is this bottomed or is there no way to really know? it's like very interest rate sensitive, right? People borrow money, do a helock to dig a new pool. So like we don't even know if we've seen the worst of it. We don't know we've seen the worst of it, but it's pretty. There are signs that there are. This is a very well-run company.

The board is fantastic. If you look at it, they're all distributed, have distribution backgrounds. And this is a company with extremely low leverage, has no controlling shareholder. And as Michael pointed out, you know, this certainly could be someone, a private equity firm could take a run at this company. So, I mean, that's not the investment thesis. And as a long-term investor, I would rather, you know, this is a great business. It's, as you said, I don't want to say it's an annuity-like business, but it's close. There's a lot of maintenance revenue there.

I'd rather be able to own and compound this over time. Okay. You want to do Burger King? Sure. Why is this one of the few QSRs, which is a sticker? Why is this one of the few that's hanging tough? I mean, it got sold off the past couple of days, but this has been a really, really difficult category. Yeah, a few reasons.

One, Patrick Doyle has done a great job. He's executive chair. 3G recruited him to be executive chair of the company. He was at Domino's. And, you know, under him, he was a CEO. Under him, Domino's went up. I think 20X. Disaster.

Yeah. He's a great, well, since he left, it's been a disaster. He picked a good, he picked a good time to lead, to lead. Is he the guy that came in and started doing the videos online about how bad the food is? Yes. Yeah. At dominoes, yeah. And he saved the company.

Exactly. It was, it was like, it was a train wreck. And he came in and he said, the food sucks. Yes. Let's. And then he said it tasted like cardboard. Yeah. He did a focus group and they started to improve the recipe.

And I don't know what they really. They put added garlic to the to the tomato sauce. It was like this revelation. Yeah. I think they made a crust that travels better. Like they did meaningful things with the food. Yeah. But they also were brilliant with the app.

Yeah. They had the best food delivery app at one point. Probably still do. I don't know. Still do. It's great. Made it so easy to order and it remembers what you. you like and it remembers your instructions, how to deliver it. And they just, they crushed it.

So this is the guy now that was brought into, this is Burger King and Tim Horton's and Popeyes. So all health, all health food. Yeah, and Firehouse subs. Yeah. But Jonathan, a lot of the competitors are getting killed, I think, because of GLP's. Like, I think that's part of the story. Why is Burger King and Tim Horton? Why are they immune? They're not immune, but they're in the middle of turnaround. They addressed this. I mean, listen, they have to deal with 20%, 25% beef inflation, like everyone else. The stock, one, had a cheaper multiple than the other ones going in. And two, Burger King North America is now in a turnaround phase. And they're in the middle of the turnaround. And-

What are they turning around? What does that mean? Like the franchises weren't happy. The unit-level economics for the stores weren't doing doing well, you know, same source sales weren't good. Now they now same source sales have improved. They're basically halfway through the recovery that McDonald's is just starting. So the great thing about the great thing about this is every five years it goes private. Right? It's, yeah.

Burger King goes private every five to seven years. Somebody, somebody takes it private. ThreeG bought them in 2011, 2012. I think they're going to stay for a long. I think they've built a great business that they're getting paid a three, four percent yield while they wait. They're going to be able to have opportunities to buy other restaurants. Maybe it gets sold. But now I think the enterprise value is $45 billion, so it's a little bit harder.

I mean, this, the Burger King take private was, I think, on a percentage basis, the best private equity deal of all time. Yeah, fun fact, the company was founded at the University of Miami. Really? Yeah. It's like one of their big claims to fame at the business school. There's like a bust of the founder. Yeah. The guy was like a genius.

I forget the whole story. Was he really a king? He was not actually a king. I think he was in the military. I don't, I forget. His last name was Burger. He was his last name was Boydor. Jonathan.

Yeah. Patrick also got rid of the king, I think, too. Oh, that idiotic mascot where it's like a mannequin. Yeah, yeah, I think he got rid of it. Super creepy. What do you see in Comcast? This is not, to me, a garpy business. What's going on here?

Yeah, Comcast is controversial within our firm. Some people like it. Some people don't. I think now the Roberts family looks like they're ready to potentially exit. They're now splitting it into two businesses. You know, you're going to have NBC Universal and then you're going to have the Comcast broadband business. But the broadband business is a tough, tough business.

You're going to have lots of competition, fix wireless. You're going to, you know, have Starlink, et cetera, even though Starlink has their issues within cities. But at five or six times EBITDA, it's pretty cheap. So, I mean, our service goes to people who are Garpe, goes to people who are somewhat deep value. So we have, you know, you know, different flavors. within it is, will people make money here? Yes, but it's probably less interesting than the others. What is the last company you looked at and wanted to like it, but you just, you couldn't

bring yourself to be bullish and what was the reason? Can you think of anything recently? I can't think of any. It happens to be all the time is why I ask. Oh, uh, give you a minute. What about what about what about stub hub? Oh, God. Stubh, weren't you close to pulling the trigger on that one or I was close to the pulling the trigger. Luckily, I mean, unfortunately, we wrote it up for subscribers. You know, one of the things I think I've learned is to not buy businesses or look at businesses that are hated by consumers. I hate Stubhub. Yes.

A lot. Everyone hates Stubhub, right? Yes. That's a thing. Yeah. It's like, why am I buying? Yeah. So, I mean, could you make money here yet?

It's a convoluted story. It's a convoluted ownership structure. could you make money? Yes. Is it our favorite? No, but we, you know, we have to come up with a lot of ideas in a given year. Not all of them we're going to like equally. Let me tell you a quick StubHub story. A couple of years ago, I was away, I think for a Nick game, a Nick playoff game or whatever the case was. And I listed it. So I took responsibility. I messed up. I listed on Ticket Master and Stub Hub. They both sold simultaneously. I had to deliver the ticket to Stubhubb buyer. I couldn't. That's f***ed up. And so I had to pay whatever.

the value was to make good. My hand up, I messed up. But they didn't tell me that it happened. And they allowed the same ticket on stub up to sell seven times. And they tried to, they tried to charge me. In fact, they did charge me like $9,000 or something like that. And Josh, you and I were in Los Angeles together when this happened. I remember that. And I had to go to Amexam. Your face was white. I was talking to the customer service. I'm like, how could you allow this? Yeah. Like, if it happens once, okay, fine, take the listing off. How could you allow this? The reason is, this is a big profit center for them.

So, yeah, consumers hit stub hub. Consumers do. Do you have coverage or a view on any of the sports betting stocks like Draft Kings and Flutter? These stocks are not doing well either. Yeah. I think they're ripping each other apart competitively, like Caesars, bet MGM, Flutter hit an all-time load today. There's just so many.

And now Robin Hood is in the game. Like it's, is that the problem here? Yeah, I mean, I think my, the one that we have a view on is MGM, which is down about 10% today because Diller pulled his bid. I think he's going to come back. He had a $48 bid. Now it's going to be $38. Now it's a $33 a share. He tried to buy it through IAC.

That's a great business selling at, you know, not demanding multiple here. I think it's, you know, 16, it's trading it about 16 times. And what's interesting to us about MGM, in 2013, they're going to have the only casino in all of Japan. And they'll have like a four or five year, at least head start on everyone. That exclusivity matters. Yeah. I was talking to somebody this week. Do you know Hard Rock pays the state of Florida $500 million?

for the exclusive gambling app in the state. And the Seminoles are involved, like the tribe is involved in that. It's part of how they pulled it off. But like, I don't know if that, I didn't independently verify that, but somebody who knows this stuff was like, yeah, they pay half a billion dollars. And that's why there is no draft kings in Florida. I had no idea. That's crazy.

Just to be clear, they don't have like an exclusive relationship. I mean they have a three or four year. your head starve because it takes a long time to build these things. So it's great. They have a Japanese partner there. They don't fully own it. But it's going to be the revenues that they're going to have are going to be pretty not similar, but very close to what they have in Vegas. And analysts aren't putting that into their forecast. I think the sports regulated, the sports books are going to be, not the sports books, I'm sorry, the like the calcium of the world. Those are going to be regulated. I think Bet,

MGM, it's going to be just fine. I think people are going to want to visit casinos. I think, you know, there's a temporary problem. People aren't going to Vegas from Canada because the Canadians hate the Americans. That's going to change. You know, 2028's not that far away. So there's lots of things to like about it. Again, if you can take a two or three year view, you might not even have to because I think Diller's going to come back. I know this is not, this is not a U.S. casino story alone. But have you looked at the stocks of wind in Las Vegas Sands, which I know is. a lot in China. They're going straight down. Las Vegas Sands was 70 bucks in December. It's 38 right now. The whole sector is out of favor. I mean, I guess there's China, obviously, there's China worries.

And, you know, MGM has a China business. And that does, I think, worry me a little bit about the stock because you don't know what's going to happen there. But there's enough other things to like. And I think that's what, you know, Josh talked earlier about position sizing. I think that's one of the things that you have to do is, you know, look at the risk. of a stock and, you know, size it accordingly. If you think the casino stocks look bad, allow me to introduce you to V-C-E properties. What is that? Holy shit.

V-I-C-I. This is the landlord of Las Vegas. So what happened during the activist shareholder era, what happened with all these casino companies is they sold their soul, by which I mean, they sold their real estate to this reet. And the idea was where we have all this money encumbered in like concrete. Let's let's sell the real estate to Vici and we'll take the cash and we'll use that cash to buy back stock. Yeah.

Disastrous. So they bought back all this stock at the top, which obviously enriched the management because these guys took huge bonuses for themselves. And ever since it's been nothing but down. and now the reet looks even worse than the casinos. This thing was last summer, 33. It's now 23. And for a reet, for like a yield play, that is disgusting. Dude, this is, this is nuts.

So I never heard, Josh, I never heard of this. It's an S&P 500 reet. It owns 103 assets. They own all the land in Vegas. They own the whole trip. Caesar's Palace, MGM Grand and the Venetian. Oh, my goodness. The Bacchle.

All right. Way to end on an up note. We did good. Guys, I want to finish by letting people know how they can learn more about Boyer asset management and all the great research that you're doing. Give us the rundown of how people can learn more from you. Sure. You can go to visit our subsect at boyar research.com. If you want to get a few samples of the fresh looks, go to Boyer Value.

group forward slash fresh. I will be leaking that in its entirely entirety on the internet shortly. Now, we want people to sign up and subscribe to your stuff. And tell us about the asset management business. How's it going this year? What's happening? Good. We're having some good flows. Business is good. And I think it's a great time to invest. Obviously, that's extremely self-serving. But there are a lot of opportunities out there. And we're, you know, if you're looking for a long-term patient, tax-efficient investor, you know, consider us. Rule number one is be self-serving. If you don't promote yourself, nobody else will.

Jonathan Boyar, you are the man. We have so much, the time just flies by when we talk to you. We learn so much from you. And super fun session today. Thank you so much for coming on. Thanks for having me. Guys, thank you so much for watching. Thank you for listening, especially thanks to everyone who is leaving

reviews and waiting the show. It means so much to us. We really appreciate it. Have a great weekend. We'll tell you soon.