The Compound and Friends - Should I buy the Coinbase IPO?

Episode Date: April 15, 2021

Josh Brown, Michael Batnick, Ben Carlson, and Packy McCormick discuss Coinbase going public and what it might mean for the broader cryptocurrency landscape. To see the video version of this conversati...on, visit: https://youtu.be/O6EG_T1w-RA Check out Packy's Substack at: https://www.notboring.co Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here: https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:00 All right, welcome back to our show, Four White Guys Talk About Technology. I'm here with Paki McCormick, who is a special guest to The Compound. You guys know Ben, you know Michael, you love their blogs, you listen to Animal Spirits. Hopefully, you turn off Animal Spirits before their movie takes. And if you don't, you know, you've been through worse. My name is Downtown Josh Brown. We're here to talk about the Coinbase IPO, which the reason we're doing this stream is that I think this is like one of those big milestone IPOs that everybody remembers. And I think it's like a very important company. Doesn't mean I think it's a great investment from the price that it's trading at, but I feel like
Starting point is 00:00:41 every investor needs to understand what the company's doing. So I just want to start there. Paki, you're the guest. Do you feel that this is a really important moment for the investment markets for Wall Street, or am I overstating it? No, I don't think you're overstating at all. I mean, I think the fact that if you had told anybody 10 years ago that there would be a company that essentially is an exchange for digital coins that went public and closed the first day at an $85 billion valuation. I mean, it's a huge day. I mean, I think it legitimizes the crypto space. And I think it's going to be, you know,
Starting point is 00:01:13 it was fairly successful today. I think there's going to be a wave of crypto companies coming public. There's SPACs just dying, I think, to take crypto companies public. And I think this will be kind of that watershed moment that everything everything turned on have any spacks done a crypto deal yet i actually don't know the answer to that nothing that i can think of but i can't either you look at like top shot is pretty ripe or you know i guess that dapper labs but today this this was the first ipo that i had
Starting point is 00:01:41 multiple people texting me about for the first time since I honestly can't remember. Snowflake. No. No. No, that was not in the public consciousness at all. Honestly, I can't remember. This is a big one. Maybe Airbnb, but probably not even that.
Starting point is 00:01:56 Everyone's comparing them to the finance companies, but for comparison, General Motors is an $84 billion company. Yeah, this makes perfect sense. That company's been around for a long time. 100 years. The fact that, yeah, the fact that it happens so fast. And think about how much of the growth has come in the last 12 months, too. Three months.
Starting point is 00:02:14 Yeah, this is wild. I think this is a pivotal moment. The Q1 numbers that we got from Q4 are just ridiculous. So we know two very big things about Wall street today i don't even know why i say wall street wall street almost doesn't even matter we know two things about investors today the first is that it's flow over stock so like how fast is the business growing is way more important than how big the business is traditionally right and and if we if we're saying that it's 30 and 40 something investors, GM has always been irrelevant to them their whole lives. So that's like the first thing.
Starting point is 00:02:51 But then the second thing is- Wait, hang on, Josh. Josh, can you stay with that? Yeah. Duncan, pull up chart three. Okay. Coinbase versus the incumbents to talk about their growth rate. So they're doing, they did 250% year over year. This is from John Street Capital, by the way. These numbers are astronomical. And one of the truly miraculous things about Coinbase is that they're the unicorn that's growing and they're super freaking profitable. That's the thing. So that, right. It's very rare that one of these mega IPOs is both fast-growing and profitable. How much money was Snowflake burning? I mean, I don't know. I'm guessing billions of dollars. I
Starting point is 00:03:29 really don't know. But just the fact that they're growing this quickly and they're generating this much in profits, which is probably one of the actual bear cases, is that because they're so profitable, there's going to be sharks in the water circling them very soon. Right. Like, Peckcky what do you think is like the biggest do they have a moat besides brand I mean I think brand is a really really big moat here but I think
Starting point is 00:03:54 scale is a big moat brand is a big moat but I mean you know they're making the vast majority of their revenue and profits off of retail investors who are paying 3-4% I think it's blended down to kind of 1.2-1.5% majority of the revenue and profits off of retail investors who are paying 3% to 4%. I think it's blended down to kind of 1.2% to 1.5%. Plus, there's a little bit of hidden spread in there that they're taking as well.
Starting point is 00:04:12 And so as there's more competition, that compresses. I think the question is, are they able to add on other kind of more defensible services and get there faster than all of the traditional kind of financial institutions and neobanks can come in into their space faster than the other crypto companies can build something at a lower rate faster than people can figure out how to use kind of the more crypto kind of protocols that are much, much lower, lower take, but obviously feel less safe to people. So that's the question, but I don't think there's real moats beyond brand for- So I want to go to this then. The first question I threw in the doc, like what should the comps be?
Starting point is 00:04:50 Forget what they will be. Is it a brokerage? Like are we talking about it versus Schwab? Is it an exchange like a CME? Is it an asset manager like BlackRock? Or is it a fintech stock? Like should we be thinking about Square? And I know a lot of investors these days would say, why choose? It's all of those things.
Starting point is 00:05:12 But Josh, you know what's so great? It's the same thing with Bitcoin. Is it digital gold? Is it a store value? Is it a currency? We've answered that. It's digital gold. Okay. But same question for Coinbase. And I think it's even more, it's even more all of these things than Bitcoin is. In either of those cases that I just laid out, though, there is nothing in those sectors that's currently valued the way. And I understand nobody else has growth like this either, but there is nothing even square. Let's say out of all those names I just rattled off, there's nothing that's valued like this. It's a unicorn among unicorns. Hey, Paki, let me throw this to you. if you said this about a company in the past five years,
Starting point is 00:05:49 anybody could do what they do. Competition is coming. Like, that has almost been like a bullish thing. Like, I think we're not giving these companies enough credit. Anybody could do what they do. Oh, really? You think every company is asleep at the wheel and has no idea what they're doing? There's obviously something that they're doing right. So it almost seems like the bearish case is like a
Starting point is 00:06:07 little bit too easy right now. I think the bearish case is certainly too easy right now because it's very clear that there's just this big amount of fees that other people already are undercutting them on. Other people are also building easy crypto on ramps. They're getting, I mean, part of the reason that you do an IPO is how many people do you think have signed up for Coinbase in the last week? I think those numbers will probably come out soon. And they're adding a bunch of people. They're onboarding more and more people to crypto. And a lot of people are not professional traders. A lot of people are buying 0.1 Bitcoin right now and holding onto it and saying that they bought 0.1 Bitcoin and having fun with it. So maybe they don't care about the fees. And that brand really does matter in a space where-
Starting point is 00:06:46 I think it's sticky. I think if you have a Coinbase account, and first of all, you don't even know what they're charging you. It's not like FINRA, where the broker has to break out, this is how much this buy just cost you. Also, if you're buying $100 worth of Bitcoin a week, what do you care? 1%, 5%, half a percent. So I think people that open a Coinbase account, Pack, at your point, I think the brand does matter. And I think there's the same inertia that you have anywhere else. People just, they get used to it and they're not looking to switch for a reason they can't even think about. So I moved some Bitcoin out of there a few months ago. It's really easy to move off.
Starting point is 00:07:25 Where did you put it? I went from Coinbase to BlockFi. I did that exact same move today, actually. It was very easy to do, and it didn't take that much. Hold on, hold on. Paki, how are you getting on BlockFi? You're not doing the interest-bearing account, right, of BlockFi because you're a New York resident? Michael's so jealous because he can't do it.
Starting point is 00:07:41 I'm a New Jersey resident right now. So I'm doing the interest-bearing account. I'm actually writing about BlockFi tomorrow. And as part of it, he can't do it. I'm a New Jersey resident right now. So I'm doing the interest-bearing account. I'm actually writing about BlockFi tomorrow. And as part of it, I was looking into it. I was like, wow, this is actually legit. I can earn 6% of my Bitcoin in Bitcoin. And so that just compounds. I was surprised at how easy it was
Starting point is 00:07:55 to move stuff off of there to BlockFi. So that's what I'm saying. If there is a competitor that comes and people know how to do that, it's not that hard to move. It's not like moving- Can't Coinbase copy that feature? Well, no, you can move into Coinbase too, but I'm just saying-
Starting point is 00:08:09 No, but Josh is saying, why wouldn't Coinbase do what BlockFi is doing? I don't know why they don't, to tell you the truth. By the way, maybe this is the nice segue. Coinbase today, 96% of their revenue is from transactions. So what if the right analogy is they're the Schwab and they're going to just completely balloon their offerings and truly become like the digital bank? Which is what BlockFi is trying to do as well. So the question is kind of what's the right angle of attack here?
Starting point is 00:08:36 I think from very, very early on, BlockFi has gotten behind the scenes really into the weeds on lending out the right stablecoin or the right Bitcoin to the right institution to fulfill basis trades and kind of make all this complicated stuff happen. So they did the hard part first, then they've added no fee trading, and now they're trying to add credit cards and a bunch of things. They're all going to try to get the future parity. It's who can get there fastest and what's the right kind of vector of attack to get in and wedge in. So that's like the crypto side of things. Josh, you know the crypto side of things. Like Josh, you know, the traditional side of finance, I think better than most people I know.
Starting point is 00:09:07 Who do you think is a threat from traditional finance? Like I think like Fidelity already has a custody. Why aren't they hopping into this thing with both? They don't, they don't hop, but they've been playing with crypto related stuff since the beginning, way before 2017, when most people in traditional finance discovered it. Abby is like determined not to let this thing
Starting point is 00:09:29 get away from Fidelity the way ETFs did. Right, they were mining it, right? She had like a mining rig set up in her office or something, according to lore. But she was probably among the traditional asset management slash brokerage CEOs, the most vocally like, yeah, we're into this. And they're providing custody services already. No, they're doing it. They're doing it. Like
Starting point is 00:09:53 they're providing custody services to institutional funds that are crypto funds. They're just not doing it at the retail level? They just filed for an ETF. Like that's the route they want to go. And maybe that's smart. It's hard to replicate what Coinbase has done. What if they went the ETF route while very quietly building in crypto capability to existing brokerage accounts? So maybe that's the other threat. 100 million accounts? But is the ETF a threat for Coinbase or is the ETF just all new money and that old money at Coinbase, it doesn't really matter? I mean, I think it's a threat, but I could be wrong. Paki, what do you think?
Starting point is 00:10:29 It's a threat to, I mean, I think it's a threat actually to the yields that you're able to get in your BlockFi account, for example, because institutions aren't going out to the CME and buying futures. They're just going to buy the ETF. The grayscale Bitcoin trust trade, I don't know if you've followed this, but it was trading at like, you know, 20% premium to NAV on average because retail wanted to buy into the trust. ETFs kill that. The anticipation of ETFs, Tesla buying, MicroStrategy buying, all these guys has brought that down actually to trade below NAV right now. So I think it compresses a lot of things when there's just a traditional way to access exposure to
Starting point is 00:11:09 Bitcoin. I don't know though. And I think institutions were bending over backwards and doing all these crazy things to get exposure because they didn't want to buy on something like Coinbase. I don't think it's a huge, huge risk to Coinbase. I was listening to Armstrong on Tyler Cowen's podcast, and that was like the toughest interview he probably ever had to do because Cowen just like from an economist standpoint just like lit him up one after another with really tough questions. But what came out of that was Brian Armstrong was talking about how he has 60 or 70 lawyers on staff and spends a lot of his day managing lawyers. But I felt like that was part of what they did really right. Rather than wait for calls from regulators, they actually put on suits and ties and went to Washington and sat with everyone they needed to sit with, from thrift supervision to banking regulators, the SEC. And they, in many ways, were educators of the regulators in the early days. And I think that's why they're the first to market with a gigantic IPO. I think the fact that they haven't been hacked, too, and the fact that their security has been
Starting point is 00:12:20 so well, that's like a bullish case for them. I mean, if Coinbase got hacked, isn't that like a down 20% day for Bitcoin? Maybe even more like that. The fact that they have such good security, I think maybe that's part of it too, is that some of the financial firms don't want to take on that risk of if we jump in and we get hacked, then no one's ever going to come to us again. Bitcoin lost like 80% of its value after Mt. Gox. And admittedly, it was a much smaller situation. There was like almost nobody involved. But I do agree that's probably a risk that's out. That's like a risk for all Bitcoin. And by the way, on top of all of these risks that we're outlining, to me, the biggest risk first and foremost to Coinbase is Bitcoin. If Bitcoin
Starting point is 00:13:01 falls 75%, what's going to happen to this thing? Duncan, can you throw up this chart of Coinbase's quarterly revenues? So you had like a massive rush into Coinbase. I mean, this is ludicrous, but these people are one-time new customers, right? And one of the reasons why they're new customers is because Bitcoin has done so well. So for me personally, given the size, given that whatever it's bigger than, I forget the numbers are with the NYSE and CME and SIBO. You're paying a lot for this, and there's a lot of risk, like a lot of risk. Why would you want to own a derivative of – if you're bullish on crypto, to me, just buy crypto. Here are the numbers. New York Stock Exchange current market value is $67 billion.
Starting point is 00:13:42 NASDAQ, $26 billion. And this is $85. So this is bigger than both combined-ish, at least at one point during the day. But I don't think they call themselves an exchange. I think they think of themselves as a broker slash banker, I guess. I don't know. What is a bull case? Like how, Paki, do you think this could be a half a trillion dollar company one day? I don't think so.
Starting point is 00:14:09 I'm not particularly bullish at these levels. I think it's a really important company. I think it's shown the way, but it reminds me a lot of Zoom almost, where they both kind of just blew the rule of 40 out of the water. And the rule of 40 is your growth plus your cashflow margins. They blew it out of the water. I think theirs is 900%. Zoom's was very, very similar. But they were both kind of of a moment.
Starting point is 00:14:30 And I think that that's the way that I see Coinbase going. Best product in the market, easiest to use, all of that. But it really IPO'd, I think, at exactly the right time. I don't see how it gets to half a trillion. So they didn't really benefit from the massive opening valuation from the standpoint of coming out at the right time. I don't see how it gets to half a trillion. So they didn't really benefit from the massive opening valuation from the standpoint of like coming out at the right time. And Zoom didn't either. Zoom was public for more than a year before the pandemic started. And then in this case, this is a direct listing. So it's not like they were like dumping shares
Starting point is 00:15:01 on the market and raising all this money. They did their capital raises way earlier than today. So I don't know. But to Michael's point about filing Bitcoin, it'll be interesting to see what that correlation is. If Bitcoin doubled from here, does Coinbase double? And if it gets cut in half, does it get cut in half? It's going to be pretty close, I think. If it's a true broker, then they should get some benefit from volatility. Because if they're taking fees on every buy and sell, granted, the more Bitcoin goes up, the more adoption, the more new accounts.
Starting point is 00:15:30 So that's obviously the bull case for Coinbase. But theoretically, they should make a lot of money in a panic too. But the stock market probably won't see it that way. The stock market might just sell off Coinbase. But maybe that's the first opportunity to buy this if you really want it. I also wonder, does volume in Bitcoin resemble volume in the stock market, where on big drawdowns, volume spikes? Does that happen in Bitcoin too, or not necessarily because there's so many hodlers? I got to imagine it's got to be pretty similar. I mean, think about the panic selling everything last March when Bitcoin got cut in half 50% a day or whatever. People treat this like stocks. So
Starting point is 00:16:11 what's the difference? It's traded interchangeably. But that's not true because 2% of all accounts hold 95% of Bitcoin outstanding. And those people are never selling. So it's always the marginal seller. So I don't think it's the same way as the stock market. There's a lot of diamond hands. I want to get into this E-Trade analogy. And I know a lot of people watching weren't around for this, but in 1996, I was cold calling for a brokerage firm in New York. And the hot stock that everyone was pitching was open an account with us and we'll get you into the E-Trade IPO. And E-Trade was sizzling in 96. They were getting $20 flat fee for a trade. They had the whole market to themselves. All of the other discount
Starting point is 00:16:52 brokers were using their software to provide online trading because nobody had their shit together yet. Arguably, Coinbase is way advanced versus where E-Trade was upon coming public. E-Trade had about 73,000 accounts. How many accounts is Coinbase, Paki? It was in the, what, 50 million range? Yeah. I mean, it was so far advanced. So anyway, the point is by 1999, you had like 100 different firms that were competing with E-Trade. And they spent their entire life as a publicly traded company battling in a fee war that they mostly lost. And then eventually, trades were free, and then Morgan Stanley just bought whatever was left. I'm not saying that's what will happen with Coinbase. I just don't think in an $86 billion valuation, a lot of people are taking that potential outcome seriously. I don't know. What do you guys think? How about this for like the people who have made so much money, like the people who started
Starting point is 00:17:48 Coinbase, how many of them are going to say, I am loaded now. I'm going to go start my own smaller Coinbase. Like if we saw defections, like, isn't that a risk that people have made a ton of money in a very short amount of time and say, I'm going to go start my dream crypto project somewhere else and take Coinbase, Coinbase's secrets, whatever it is. The other aspect of a direct listing is they can do that. If you do a traditional IPO, you have a lockup period. The way this company came public, like Spotify and a few others, Slack, anyone with shares can sell. So all those VCs could be selling today then?
Starting point is 00:18:20 I would be surprised. Who else is doing all the selling? I know I already said this, but I just think that, again, the bear case is so obvious. And it does feel like it feels like a trap. Like, you know what I mean? It feels just a little bit too easy. And maybe we're not giving them enough benefit of the doubt that they're building something truly special. Well, I think the market has already given them the benefit of the doubt, right? The fact that they grew so much in their valuation. I mean, that's part of the way of mentioning it, just how impressive it is that this company did this and succeeded.
Starting point is 00:18:45 But it's not giving them a benefit of the doubt as if maybe they're going to deliver and let's just see how it works out. We just got some results and they blew the doors off. They are crushing it. Maybe the market was actually behind the eight ball on this one. If these numbers didn't come out, maybe it would have came out at a $40 billion valuation or something like that. Paki, what do you think? came out of, I don't know, $40 billion valuation or something like that. Paki, what do you think?
Starting point is 00:19:11 Yeah, that's kind of what I meant by the timing on this is that those numbers were just absolutely incredible. And it's hard to value this versus another company that you're looking at and saying, oh, cool, $1.1 billion in quarterly profit. Because next quarter, if the transaction volumes are down, none of that revenue is necessarily sticky. The accounts might be sticky, but then making money on that 3% to 4% or the 1.1% average, that could go away to the extent that it's not volatile. People aren't buying. You know why that point is so important to torture my brokerage firm analog even further?
Starting point is 00:19:41 When Wall Street companies report earnings like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan, they all have trading desks, fixed income and commodities and currencies. They have equity trading desks. They don't get a lot of credit for big beats on the trading desk. Precisely for what you're talking about, Wall Street analysts view outsized profitable quarters in trading as ephemeral. It's not repeatable. It's not like wealth management where you could set your watch to what's coming in. So they don't get multiple expansion when they're having a good run of trading because nobody believes it could last. So I think that's a really important point. One thing that we haven't even
Starting point is 00:20:20 spoken about yet. Duncan, could you throw up one of these, the blue bar charts, assets on platform and crypto market capitalization? This is crazy. We haven't even spoken about the institutional adoption yet, which it seems like every single day, there's something bigger and bigger happening in the space. And it's only just begun. But is that a net benefit for Coinbase? I think so, because they're the primary beneficiary of this, right? Because if you're, I think, didn't Tesla get long Bitcoin through Coinbase? I'm almost positive they did. Tesla did, MicroStrategy. Dan Loeb tweeted the other day that he used Coinbase. So if they're the broker of choice for institutional trading, that's not even in these numbers yet.
Starting point is 00:20:55 Do we think they are though? Because Bank of New York, Mellon, Pershing, like they're settling trades in Bitcoin. I do think Coinbase is the winner. But didn't we see that the institutions are paying like five basis points? And even though they're moving bigger money, they're not making as much money on that because institutions aren't going to be charged like retail investors. How long can they say we're here for the people and decentralization and blah, blah, blah, revolutionize this and that and have a two-tiered commission schedule for hedge funds and for
Starting point is 00:21:23 everyone else? So there it is. have a two-tiered commission schedule for hedge funds and for everyone else. So there it is. 1.4% for retail, five basis points for institutional. By the way, we spent a nice book earlier on the podcast that Robinhood is now like a major, major retail player in crypto. I don't remember how many accounts they opened with crypto, but massive, massive, massive, massive. Like nine million. That's what I think, honestly, when Robinhood IPOs, that could be a sneaky crypto play because their crypto platform is growing enormously.
Starting point is 00:21:48 So that's where I have my crypto, but we're stuck there. I can't get it off. That's the tough part about Robinhood is that you're stuck. I want to leave. Why can't you get it off? They won't let you.
Starting point is 00:21:57 They don't allow it. What are you talking about? Robinhood and PayPal, you can't move your crypto. The more I hear about this company, the more hilarious the ironic their name is. They said that they're working on allowing you to do it, but as of right now, you cannot. Easy to get it in though, right? Now you just can't leave.
Starting point is 00:22:12 Yes. The interesting thing too about the Tesla buys and the MicroStrategy buys and the big corporate buys is that the corporates are buying this and having it sit on the balance sheet. So it's not even like normal trading volume. Tesla is doing their billion dollar buy once and paying five bips on it. Like it's just not, I don't think going to be super meaningful revenue because they're not going to be very active with it. True. Every business though on the street is a volume discount. So I'm not like offended by it. I
Starting point is 00:22:34 understand it. I'm just curious when those things converge. And of course they've converged to zero for equities and soon to be fixed income. So I want to get into the corporate structure a little bit, Paki, and you can help me out with this. A lot of the excitement around cryptocurrency generally and a lot of the fan base for Bitcoin is about decentralization. So now we have the largest living, breathing avatar for the crypto space, the Goldman Sachs of crypto. And the CEO, Brian Armstrong, has 22% of the voting power.
Starting point is 00:23:07 And the executives and directors collectively have more than half of all the voting power. So this sounds like decentralization is great, as long as it's not decentralization for us. The biggest company is a middleman. It's hilarious. It's hilarious. I mean, it's hilarious to me. I think that irony is lost on people. I don't know.
Starting point is 00:23:25 What do you think about the way they've set up the company? Is it smart that they're doing this way? You know, what's been surprising to me is how much love there's been from the hardcore crypto community for a day like today. And how much, I think, love generally there is for CeFi as opposed to DeFi or centralized finance as opposed to decentralized finance. I think a lot of people are just really happy that Robinhood or that, sorry, Coinbase raised a lot of money, built the brand, built the structure, was friendly with regulators and brought crypto to the mainstream way faster than it would have been without a Coinbase. And so I think there's love for it there. That said, there are plenty of open protocols that are counter-positioning against something like a Coinbase
Starting point is 00:24:07 and saying like, look, we're actually decentralized. You know, there's a big movement called, you know, if you don't own your keys, then you don't own your coins. And Coinbase is a poster child for no keys, no coins. And so I think people will build against it. But for the most part, it feels like the broader crypto community has been-
Starting point is 00:24:24 All these kids are like, see, dad, I told you I'm not wasting my life. But I just wonder if- There's a lot of validation today. The next level of adoption though, like the people who own their keys, that level of adoption is already there. Like those people who figured it out early
Starting point is 00:24:38 and got the technology right and have their cold storage or whatever, like I never could have figured that out personally. No way. And so the next level of adoption from individuals who are toying in the water or advisors is going to be people who don't want that stuff or need that stuff. And that's where Coinbase is probably going to, again, get those people where they don't, they don't mind if you're not like a crypto libertarian or whatever. That guy that had $50 million in Coinbase and had one
Starting point is 00:25:01 more chance to put his password in. It's not like the best commercial for Coinbase of all time. Like they should refund him the 50 million or whatever the amount is. You couldn't get a better ad for something like this that's, you don't have to around with keys. It's not like a complex thing. Do we think that civilians are going to read about or watch news about the Coinbase IPO and adopt Coinbase in terms of using it? Or is this not the type of IPO that does that? Because I feel like the Peloton IPO did do that. I think this is more about should I buy the stock? At least anecdotally, I got four text messages and not one of them was should I buy Bitcoin? All of them were should I buy the stock? How long will it take, Ben, before we can
Starting point is 00:25:45 show a correlation chart that's meaningful? BTC versus COIN. That's good. Six months. I need a week. I need a week. Three to six months. Michael uses intraday prices, so he can use 24 hours, maybe. Hey, last thing, Paki, was there a number where you would have said, this is pretty attractive? Was that $25 billion? Or was it so far gone? It was so far gone that I frankly didn't even analyze it from a buying perspective. The trade that I think would be very interesting is buying a basket of crypto and shorting Coinbase.
Starting point is 00:26:22 Hold on. I think that would be- Go ahead. Oh, so say like, all right, I'm bullish on the space, but I'm not bullish on the biggest broker in the space. Right. So you're saying like, you know, if you're long crypto and you're short Coinbase and everything goes wild, then you're good on, you know, you're hedged and you're good on being long crypto and maybe it just gets even crazier and spikier. And if things tank and you think that Coinbase is highly levered to the price of Bitcoin, then you're good on your short there. And I don't know, that's how I think
Starting point is 00:26:50 that I would play it. I'd rather be long assuming that one of the hundred or thousand competitors is going to come into the space. One, they just increase the price of the coins themselves by bringing more demand. And then two, somebody takes down Coinbase potentially. Few understand this. So I want to end with this and I'm going to go around, gun to your head. Coinbase closed at $335.96. What's the latest print on Bitcoin?
Starting point is 00:27:18 I got your Bitcoin $62,371. We can do the ratio then. That's going to be our play. Yeah, the new ratio. That'll be prominently featured in all the macro newsletters. Alright, so here's the thing.
Starting point is 00:27:31 Bitcoin cut in half at 31,000 or Coinbase cut in half at 160? Coinbase. Which one do you smash the buy button on first? Oh, Bitcoin. Bitcoin, yeah. Bitcoin. Yeah. Definitely.
Starting point is 00:27:47 Definitely? Definitely. Why? Because if it doesn't recover, then Coinbase won't either? I'm just much more bullish on Bitcoin in the future than I am on Coinbase. It's not even close. If I'm like 10 years out here, I'd be buyer of Bitcoin rather than Coinbase. Like I think it's possible Coinbase, what if, I mean, it's going to be volatile with the price, but when there's crashes or huge bull runs, but what if it's just kind of a boring stock?
Starting point is 00:28:06 We all said Bitcoin way too fast. Gun to Packy's head. Did he say Bitcoin? I didn't hear you. I'm buying Bitcoin unless the reason that Bitcoin crashed is that like China was behind Bitcoin the whole time and holds all the keys and steals everybody's Bitcoin. But otherwise, I'm buying Bitcoin. All right. All right. I love it. Hey, I want to thank you guys for jumping in and do this. And I think we brought out a lot of interesting points for the viewers. If you guys liked what we were doing, go ahead and smash that like button for us. Make sure you're subscribed.
Starting point is 00:28:34 If you haven't already, I don't really know what your story is. It's really easy. Hit that bell. You'll get the alert every time we go live. Special thanks to my guy, Paki McCormick. I want everybody to subscribe to the not boring Substack Letter, which lives up to its name. Awesome read. What are you writing, twice a week? Twice a week. And we're writing about BlockFi tomorrow, so more crypto if you're interested.
Starting point is 00:28:56 Can't wait. All right. Paki's Substack Letter is great. Subscribe to that. And we will see you soon. Thanks, guys. Have a great night. Thanks for listening. Check us out at thecompoundnews.com for daily investing and market insights. You can watch all of our videos at youtube.com slash thecompoundrwm. Talk to you next week.

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