The Compound and Friends - Sleep at Night Portfolio, Big Tech Earnings Week, Spotify Blows Up, Josh on Joby

Episode Date: April 28, 2026

Join ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Downtown Josh Brown⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Michael Batnick⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ for another episode of What Are Your Thoughts and see what they have to say about: Mag 7 earnings, stretched semis, Spotify crashing, a historic earnings boom and more! This episode is s sponsored by WisdomTree and Janus Henderson Investors. To learn more about WisdomTree, visit https://www.wisdomtree.com/geopolitical-opportunities Find out more about Janus Henderson Investors at https://www.janushenderson.com/securitizedmarkets/ Sign up for ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Compound Newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and never miss out! Instagram: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://instagram.com/thecompoundnews⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/thecompoundnews⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-compound-media/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ TikTok: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.tiktok.com/@thecompoundnews⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Josh Brown are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. The Compound Media, Incorporated, an affiliate of ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Ritholtz Wealth Management⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information. Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/ Janus Henderson Disclosure: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal and fluctuation of value.  Janus Henderson® and any other trademarks used herein are trademarks of Janus Henderson Group plc or one of its subsidiaries. © Janus Henderson Group plc. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

All right. All right. So much excitement in the chat for tonight, Michael. Do you notice? You have my full attention. All right. You have 25% of mine. On this show, we love the chat.

Like real streamers here. Chat, great to see you guys. Hey, everybody. Welcome to an all-new edition of What Are Your Thoughts. My name is downtown Josh Brown here with my co-host. Mr. Michael Badnick. Michael say hello? How we doing?

Salute doesn't quite work for audio. I spoke. I spoke. How we doing was great. I spoke. All right. Guys, this is, we are in the heart. We are in the meat of earnings season.

And we have four of the biggest companies in the world reporting very soon. And we're going to get into a little bit of a preview. We're to look at an earning season in general because what we're witnessing right now is sort of an explosive moment in corporate profitability. overall. We'll talk about it. We're also going to talk about the sleep at night portfolio. So many other cool things. Before we get to our sponsor, I do want to say hello to some folks in the chat. I see my guy, Akbar, is back.

Patrick Othrow is here from Miami. Got you, brother. Good to see you. John Carlo is here. Lisa Adams. Happy Taco Tuesday. Yeah. Good point.

I always forget. It really is Taco Tuesday. Just Dave wants to talk. talk about Hood. All right. We'll get into HUD tonight. They reported. Can I tell you something?

Matthew says Batnik is back. I never left. Never left. So before we get to the sponsor, I just saw Luke Cowell from Sherwood tweeted a great chart. Sign of the Times. We're going to get into this. Transaction revenue on event contracts surpassed crypto revenue at Robin Hood for the quarter. How's that?

Sign of the Times. So it's not like new money for gambling. It's like the new version of gambling is cannibalizing the old version of gambling. Can you think of anything more boring on Earth than crypto? Crypto's not hot. But it's not even like it's bad. It's like really not doing anything. It's not doing much.

It's boring. It's just boring. Yeah. Well, you know who is not boring. Our response in Wisdomtry, that's who today's show is brought you by. Wisemtree believes Japan is entering a new era. corporate reforms and stronger shareholder policies are changing the game. And investors like Warren Buffett have taken notice.

The Wisden Tree Japan Opportunities Fund, ticker OPPJ, is designed to invest in Japanese companies, positioned to benefit from macroeconomic policies, industrial innovation, end shifts in trade and consumer behavior. Learn more about OPPJ and the broader suite of geopolitical opportunity. ETFs at Wisdomtree.com slash geopolitical dash opportunities. In today's market uncertainty and revolving credit conditions, the $15 trillion securitized market may provide investors with diversifying income opportunities. As a leading provider in active securitized ETFs, Janice Henderson seeks to demystify

a complex yet growing part of the market, offering a range of diversifying exposures across income, duration, and credit quality. Whether investors are seeking high quality, AAA, rated CLOs for lower volatility exposure, higher income diversified across various securitized sectors, or perhaps agency MBS exposure as part of their core, Janice Henderson seeks to offer a variety of securitized solutions. Janice Henderson investors, investing in a brighter future together. Learn more at Janice Henderson.com slash securitized markets. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principle

and fluctuation of value. Josh, I don't have this in the dock. Maybe we'll throw it for next week. I saw a chart. The aggregate dividend and buyback trend of Japanese stocks has exploded. We've spoken about that, like maybe a year ago, about the reforms that they're making. And guess what? It's working. We were so early to that. Like, we were talking about, these things that they were forcing their companies to come up with, like a plan to get their stock price appreciably above its book value. And all these companies that are listed on the N-K had to fall in line. We'll do this next week. It's a good chart. Yeah. And they did it. And it literally worked. The Japanese stock market has been a bright spot. Okay. First things first,

though, Mag 7 earnings week. So just catch people up. We've already gotten the Tesla report. So they're not part of this. And the Nvidia report comes at the very end. But Nvidia's biggest customers are all about to report. And Wednesday night, tomorrow night, if you're listening to this live, is Amazon, meta, and Microsoft. Why do they do that? It's almost too much. Can I ask you question?

Thursday night is Apple. Apple. I don't know if this is because I'm spending less time on the socials. But it felt to me like this earnings quarter for Tesla was got little attention, at least got very little of my attention. I don't know what happened. Because they're sort of in this transition between like, all right, nobody cares about the cars anymore.

Now it's all about robots, but the robots aren't here. It's like an purgatory kind of. It's like, well, it's like if you are in it for the robots, you're just holding it and waiting. And if you were in it because of like cyber truck, you've been gone for a long time. And so it's it's like a stasis. There are people that were like bowled up on the cars and now companies like almost going out of its way to let you know that's not what this investment is about anymore. So I think I just feel like it's all it's all very anticlimactic plus like SpaceX is like a thousand times more exciting than Tesla these days.

And I'm sure Elon's feeling that too. So that that's I think that's the story with here in the chat. Carlos says, everyone's waiting for Tesla to merge with SpaceX. Yeah. Which, of course, is coming. And I have predicted all of these things that have happened. You haven't been saying that for a while. And it will.

You know, I mean, obviously, you know, we do this every week. We spend so much time talking about the swings of the market. Stocks go up, stocks go down. Meta, the last month reported, the stock was at $668. Whereas it today is $670. But of course, it was. it went from 660 down to 520, but it's literally right where it was

last quarter before it reported. Yeah, and that's probably the most, that's probably the most sleepy one of the group. Do you agree? Meta versus, I don't know. I would probably say Amazon, although it's been more interesting recently. Yeah.

I mean, Apple's not going to say anything exciting. You never know. You never know. A lot of people waiting on, A lot of people waiting on the Siri upgrade, foldable phones. There's some stuff in the ether with Apple. It's been boring lately. I don't know if this is Tim Cook's last earnings call.

I don't know when he's officially leaving, but it's one of his last ones. Let's do Amazon. Consensus earnings estimate is $1.63 on revenue of $177 billion. And if they deliver, that would be a 14% growth rate over last year. I put together some of the storylines. I'll lay them on you. and then you let me know what you're thinking about. Morgan Stanley says AWS is entering an acceleration phase for its AI workload migrations.

So this is like regular workloads moving within the cloud from just being plain vanilla to being like AI stuff and the volumes of that just being much higher for AI, which is likely. they think 38% AWS growth in 2026 and the street is at 26%. So obviously, Bulls. One other thing that I wanted to bring out, Mark Mahaney is looking at a modest beat

on both revenue and earnings, but is worried about Q2. And he's saying that because of, I don't know, I guess like some mixture of Capx or whatever. So Amazon, if you remember in February when they did their Q4 report, they put out their guidance for 2026 CAPX and they said 200 billion, which was a 60% jump over 2025.

So you know what people. Yeah. And people are going to be looking for like, are they sticking to that? And then there's a lot of stuff going on with like proprietary chips and Amazon kind of flexing about trinium and some of the stuff that they've been building. building. You fled the island reversal in Amazon a couple of weeks ago. It's really just amazing how fast these stocks moved.

I mean, Amazon had looked like shit for years going sideways more recently if you zoom in. But even if you zoom out, just like an underperformer relative to the market, relative to its peer group. And then you blink and it goes from 210 to 260. Put this chart up. So you can't see this because we don't have candlesticks. But I did on a previous show show you guys the island reversal. And this is textbook. And it, like, sometimes they don't always work this simply, but man, did this thing work?

And an island reversal is a reversal. It's a reversal pattern. It takes the trend from whatever direction it's in and sends it off in the other direction. And it's a very powerful signal where the seller, in this case, where the sellers are trapped and the buyers take control before, before anybody even knows what's happening. And this made in new all time high. This is my full disclosure. Now my second largest position personally. What's your biggest? Invidia. Invidia has been back and forth, but now it's back because it had a huge rally recently. And I'm going to stick with Amazon through the earnings. Mahoney might be right.

They might give guidance for next quarter that people aren't in love with. What are you going to do? This is part of what it means to be a shareholder. Microsoft, also tomorrow after the close, $4.7. Revenue $81.37 billion. This is a stock that is in a 35% drawdown. Nothing more. Well, it was from a tie.

It's since come back a little bit, hasn't gained back what it's lost. I think this is another aggressive KAPX spender. And there are some questions about how tethered they are to open AI. it's weird like open AI there was bad news about it in the journal which we're going to talk about that was weird went up the timing of the release today like why it was like open AI misses internal guidance i don't believe any of this shit so weird story to print because well they came out and denied it so the journal did this thing the journal did this thing where they're quoting people that spoke to sarah fryer the cFO and they're saying like

that the company is missing its usage targets. And then the company immediately is like, no, nobody said that. Why is there so much smoke around this company? Oracle fell seven or eight percent pre-market. And it did close down four percent, but it closed up the highs of the day. Yeah, I don't believe any of these opening eye stories. I think this company is just surrounded by people making things up. I really do.

You don't believe any of it? No. I don't, I don't, I don't because they didn't, they keep denying it. And like, let's not forget, like, Sam Altman and Elon Musk are in a court battle, and that's this week. And you don't know who's motivated by what to lie to a journalist. I don't, I don't, I'm not assuming the journal, the journalists are like making things up. I'm saying, like, people are just, like, sourcing them with stuff that is instantly denied

by the company. So somebody's lying. Maybe the company's lying, but how would we know? one of the pieces of information in that story today was that they raised $120 billion and they expected to be gone in three years. That sounded nuts to me. How do you burn $120 billion in three years? Back to Microsoft.

There's a polymarket trade on this where they're pricing in a 94.5% implied probability of a beat. And people are pointing to Azure growth coming in at 37 to 38. percent or above. Well, if AWS is going to be a winner from the A class stuff. You would have to assume they all will. Yeah. You have to submit it all.

Give you the Microsoft chart. I know it's bounced, but this still looks like shit. Yeah. Versus the Amazon chart I just showed you. It's like two different worlds, right? Yeah. Okay. Meta, again, same day.

Tomorrow after the close, $7.51 cents in earnings. $55.5 billion in quarterly. revenue, that would be 31% ahead of last year. And this stock does not trade like a company that is growing revenue 31% year over year. Here are the storylines. First, you guys probably remember the year of efficiency, which is when they were firing people and cutting their expenses down from the metaverse and retreating from a lot of ill-advised stuff they were doing. Now they're saying, Zuckerberg is calling this, the era of personal superintelligence. They are touting what AI is doing for their core advertising engine, which as a reminder

to the audience is about 97% of the business is advertising. Guidance for ad click rates is three to five percent growth. I'm clicking everything, dude. I can't stop. I'm like addicted. You're not just clicking. You're purchasing. They love you.

I can't stop. And then they say, obviously, CAPEX credibility is the big storyline here. So the guidance that they gave was 115 to 135 billion for this year and next year, $142 billion. And if they can justify that with ROI from the ad business, then great.

And if they can't, there's going to be some question about the wisdom of their continued spending in this area. There's also some talk about their own chip rollout. They have a two nanometer chip that they built with Broadcom. And let's put the chart up real quick. Just to give you guys, I mean, this is in no man's land. There's nothing really to say, it's nothing really to say here. The chart in and of itself would not make you want to be bullish or bearish. It just, you know what? There's, no, there's something to say. Nobody knows.

There's a lot of uncertainty in this name, like a lot. I know, I know that's the nature of investing, but like, look at these swings. Yeah. I think that's right. Like, these are hundreds. $100 per share swings on a regular basis. Which equates to like literally hundreds of billions of dollars in market cap swing. People are just guessing. Yes. Okay. Give me Apple chart while I'm talking.

Last one. So this will get Thursday. This is the company not spending on AI or not in it. This is the cleanest one technically. I think we have a cup and handle forming here, but we'll say. Consensus, a $1.94 per share. for the quarter, which be 17% year-over-year earnings growth and revenue of $109 billion. Tim Cook just announced that he's going to transfer away from the CEO role.

He'll stay as chairman. John Turnus will be taking over. We talked about him last week. No need to rehash. Turnus is a product guy. He's an engineer. He's been involved in all of the biggest things Apple has done in the last 25 years or so since he's been there.

This would be the first CEO transition since Cooktuk came in from, oh, Uvraj 94 wants to know how I pronounced nanometer. That's actually the way I said it is the way that you're supposed to say. It's not nanometer. So go back to Eden crayons. What else was I saying?

Oh, Apple. You just lost a viewer forever. It's fine. Apple did have a record-breaking Q1, $143.8 billion. And China was the bright spot in that report, which caught people by surprise. And again, back to what I said, it's the least capital-intensive AI story. We don't even really know what they're going to do with AI. We know that Siri sucks and needs an upgrade and that they've been failing at delivering that for two years. And so maybe that's the surprise.

they might tell us that they have something agentic coming out this summer and people will get very excited for that. So the big number here that analysts care about is services. That's the highest margin business at Apple. 30.4 billion is the expectation. That would be a 14% growth rate. Of these four, which of the ones, which of these are you the most excited to listen to? Not Apple.

I would say The Microsoft, honestly, it's too much to me. I never really understand what he's saying. It's like too technical. Probably, I think like the, I think the Zuckerberg one is relatively digestible. Like that's the one that I feel like he speaks plain English. Let me blow your face off your body. You know the chart that we've made showing Apple by various segments?

Yeah. In terms of like the turnaround 12 month revenue. So I had chart could update it this morning. $226 billion. in revenue for the iPhone over the last 12 months. Ready for this? Yeah. Put your crayons down.

Envidia. Crayons down. Invidia, 216 billion. Apple has done more revenue with the iPhone over the last 12 months than invidia. Really? Wait, wait. Say it again. Say it.

226 for the iPhone. $226 billion in revenue for the iPhone. $216 billion in revenue for Nvidia. All of Nvidia. All of Nvidia. Yeah. What were we talking about the other day

where the iPad is bigger than Charles Schwab by revenue or something like that? Yeah, the iPad's done 29. Schwab did 24. McDonald's. That McDonald's did 27. So services did 113. You said it's looking for 30.

So annualized 120. Tesla did $97 billion. Johnson and Johnson did $96 billion. I mean, it's just, It's stupid. So you're saying Facebook, Facebook, meta is the one that you're most interested in listening to because you understand what he's saying the most. It's like the most straightforward business.

The Microsoft call is too technical. There's too many different business lines. And Satya is too. He speaks like an engineer and I don't understand what he's saying. He's Amazon. He's just open my head. I don't understand. Yeah.

The Amazon is just, there's a lot of different areas of the business. So for like the cleanest story into what's happening right now. with big tech, I like meta. I think the AWS segment of the Amazon call is probably the highest signal other than Microsoft. And yeah, it's a good point you make. I don't really listen to the Microsoft call. I read the highlights. And maybe that's why.

And I never really thought about why I don't like listening to that. It's very technical. I like the Apple call. It's just the facts, ma'am. Like, they're not freewheeling. They don't, they don't like give you off the cuff, really. They're extremely buttoned up. Apple is almost like listening to a bank report.

But I just, I personally as a shareholder, just get so much out of that. But it's not an exciting. It's very rarely an exciting call and almost never an exciting reaction. Yeah, because you know why he thanks the employees. They speak a lot about their global initiatives. Like, it's boring. Right. It's extraordinarily by the numbers.

Yeah. And it's. And it's not, it's not that much fun. All right. Let's talk about earnings in general. You're up now. All right. So, yeah, there's something special going on here.

So Warren Prys tweeted a chart that, like, I don't know, speaking of tactical, this is like way over my head. But the point is this. Throw the chart on. The point is this. Warren said a historic earnings boom is developing. Estimates growing faster than they did in the mid-90s or late internet public years. Only COVID recovery period started greater inflection. But this is the point.

The boom is unique because it is not, it is not coming off an EPS drawdown recovery. So we're seeing earnings accelerate. And it's, it is primarily tech. Next chart, please. It's 43% blended and actual. And this, you know, there's a moving target. But holy shit, 43% for technology, almost 14% for the overall index. Gee, I wonder why stocks are an all-time high.

I think if you pull Nvidia and Micron, out of that technology earnings growth composite, it's fairly a different picture. But it's still. Wrong. Come on. Next chart. So I asked Matt, why are you taking, so this is tech,

X Microsoft Apple and Nvidia. And I said, why are you taking Microsoft Apple and Nvidia out of here? And he said, it's because it's a Bloomberg, it's a Bloomberg like standard chart. So I said, okay, fair enough. But this is without Apple, this is without Nvidia. All right. So it's, wow. Okay.

It's higher. Huh. Interesting. It's higher. So here's why. It's all about chips. How are they doing it? It's all about chips.

It's semis. So Adam was saying like Micron is trading at like five times photo earnings. And I was like, wait, what? So I said, Matt, make me a chart of Micron and Sandus. Like, what the hell's going on here? Next chart, please. I mean, what would you expect? What would you expect to?

12-month forward earnings per share. What would you expect a stock to be doing that 10x is its revenue, I'm sorry, its earnings, and 50x is its earnings over a 12-month period? Will you expect the stock to go up? I think so. So for the people listening, Micron was earning $9 a share in March of 25. And now the forward estimate is for $85 a share. Sandisk is even crazier.

They had $2 in earnings per share expected for the forward $12. month period in March of 2025. That's a year ago. And now it's a $99. We may have never seen anything like this in our lives. I've never seen anything like this. I don't know that anyone has. I really don't.

I think the most shocking thing about this is that so few people, if anyone, was able to predict it. And you know what's funny? And this is like a good reminder for all of us that in hindsight, this seems so obvious. Not to me. The chip thing in particular. Oh, oh, what did. Yeah, Encore told us like she knew it was coming, but then thought she must have been wrong. Right.

That was interesting. Because no one else seemed to agree and the stocks weren't working. So she said to herself, I must be totally wrong about this because these stocks are not going up. And then like six months later, it just launched. That's crazy. The growth in forward EPS for. versus the price. And hey, look at that. The market's not stupid. In fact, it's pretty damn smart. So the stocks that are growing their earnings the fastest are...

Have the best performance. Are going up the bus. It's almost as if it's not a bubble. It's almost as if this is about earnings growth, which is what we all... Always has been. Always has been. Dude, every investor, like even value investors, even dumpster diving, like value guys, they all, like, they, they all kind of proselytized the same sermon to us all about how earnings, earnings, earnings, well, here it is. Here, this is what you say is important. Now you're going to say it's a bubble because you don't own these stocks. Not my fault. Not my fault. They started rallying off of high valuations. That's what happened sometimes. And even value investors, it's not just about the valuation.

support. Obviously, that's a, you know, it's a big ingredient. But I remember the synonymous guy, Jesse Livmore, in like 2016, wrote a post for, for O'Shaunusie asset management. And it honestly blew my mind because he demonstrated the fact that there is an earnings inflection, which is why the value stocks get re-rated. It's not magic. Like, earnings do trough out and go higher. And that's what it's all about. It's all about earnings. If you could predict the future. What's the source of, what's the source of value performance you're saying? It's like it comes for a reason. Yeah.

And if the earnings don't turn and if the earnings don't turn and they keep going lower, the stock price will follow it. That's it. You would think this would be obvious, but it's not. Well, it's because we, you know, we invest day to day,

at least I do. I'm guilty of this. I trade day to day too often. We have a guest on TCAP this week. And we're going to talk about some like long-term investing. And he said, listen, over the long-term, a stock cannot meaningfully diverge from its earning trajectory.

And we're talking like over a 20-year period. If the business earns 20% compounded, the stock's not going to earn 50. And same thing. If a business is declining, that's what the stock is going to do. It just works. Yeah. Right. And we overcomplicate it with all these other factors.

And we talk about multiple expansion and compression and re-rating and, you know, because that's in the short term, those things do. exist. Yeah. But, okay, it's a really good point. Give me this chart. This is quarterly results for S&P 500 companies, um,

uh, year over year. Okay. So the, I want to call you attention. So it's a 16.1% growth rate this quarter versus the same quarter a year ago. And that's despite the fact that gasoline prices are up,

I don't know, 25, 30%. And, um, Not only is this not financial engineering because these companies are actually contending with higher input costs and somehow still reporting bigger profits, but revenue is up 9.7%. Can't fake that. You can't engineer higher revenue unless you're literally like recognizing revenue early

and committing accounting fraud. Like this is what's literally going on. Next chart. This is by sector. I'm just showing you S&P 500 companies by sector versus a year ago, like what the revenue and earnings growth rate is. And we know technology already. It's a 40-some-odd percent earnings growth rate jump over last year.

But revenue is like 24%. This is not just like AI-driven efficiencies. There's a lot more happening here. Every single sector has revenue growth versus the same. quarter last year, and only two sectors have negative earnings growth, and those are energy and health care, which, you know, we barely pay attention to energy because it's the commodity fluctuating, and I don't fully understand what's going on with health care. But like, every sector has revenue grown, which I thought was notable. What do you thoughts?

I'm wondering why there's such a big gap. Like, where's the leverage coming from for materials to have, I don't know, it looks like 10% earnings growth, not even. I mean, revenue and then like 30% earnings growth? Yeah, prices, hedges. I don't know. Same thing with financials. Listen, companies. It's not like so straightforward. It's not so straightforward in those groups. Companies are very, very good at expanding the bottom line. Yeah. So let me read this to you. Sales and profit eclipsed Wall Street expectations at Halliburton, the Houston-Bas global oil services company. The energy landscape changed meaningfully in just 60 days.

And now companies are racing to invest from Norway and Nigeria to Argentina and Brazil. So that's a company where like the price of crude shoots up $30, $40 a barrel and natural gas demand takes off. And all of a sudden, there's all these projects that didn't make sense in January that people want to get into in March. And that's the nature of like materials, energy, some of these sectors is like prices change the reality for fundamentals almost overnight. Anyway, this is important if you are an investor and you think we're in some sort of a tech bubble. Yeah, things are going great for tech stocks.

But like I'm showing you market wide, we're looking at fundamental improvement for both earnings and revenue. It's every sector in the case of revenue growth. I want to do this permanent portfolio thing. Do you know what the permanent portfolio is? In my head, I have an idea. I think it's cash, stocks, long-term bonds, and gold. In my head, that's what I think of, 25% in each. 25%.

Okay. That's the way I learned it. But there's other derivations of it, but basically that's it. So Michael Hartnett, who is a strategist at Merrill Lynch, and I think one of the best market watchers, market thinkers out there, he has this thing called a Sleep Like a Baby portfolio. Too many words. And it's similar.

So what he's saying is 25% stocks, 25% long-term treasuries. Right. So specific. Okay. 25% commodities, not gold, although that would include gold. And then 25% cash and T-vills. So almost the same thing. So the permanent portfolio is that, except instead of commodities, it's gold.

The permanent portfolio came along in the early 80s as a direct response to the inflationary devastation that had been visited upon the investor class in the 1970s. Like that the permanent portfolio was like the solution to that secular bear market, which went on from 68 to 82. It was absolutely grueling. You didn't just lose money in absolute terms, but you also lost money in inflation adjusted terms. And so they came up. So Harry Brown, who was a market philosopher, politician, he was like a polymath, came up with this idea.

And then they built a mutual fund based on it, which still exists. But let's show this tweet from Mike Saccardi. Because he's pulling the, he has the, Hartnet chart. John, can we get this up? Maybe we won't. I think we deleted it.

Oh, cool. No, chart could recreated it. Oh, we, all right, so we did our own. Yeah. I asked,

I asked Charquette and Sean to take a whack at this. So this is us taking HeartNet sleep like a baby portfolio. And I think ours is way better, obviously. Well, by the way, hold on.

So HeartNet annualized his 2026. Yeah. So ChartKit did the same just to recreate it. But that's right. He's saying like on a year to date basis, it's annualizing a 26, 27% returned. Yeah.

And so we're just doing what he did to show that it's having a good year. It's having good year. My opinion, it's having good year because we threw oil into the, into the commodities portion of this. And stocks have been doing, like, stocks have been doing great. And the next one shows gold instead of commodities. Right. When you go back to the permanent portfolio. it's a much more muted version

because you don't have oil in here. So instead of commodities, you have gold. And just put the first one back. So for those listening, the Sleep Like a Baby portfolio that Hartnet is talking about is up at an annualized rate of 27%. And we're a little bit more than a quarter

and a month, or maybe we're a quarter in a month through the year. So it's a little bit early to be annualizing things. But I get it. So this is, This is a portfolio. So this is a, this is a, this is a great strategy because if you are, if you don't have the temperament to hold on to stocks and take all the smoke, and let's be honest, it's very difficult, obviously in a bare market to do. Not everybody wants all the smoke.

I would just 8% in an up year, which is great. Only 5% in a down year. Pretty freaking awesome. The problem is, um, it doesn't protect you from phoma. So when the market is up 20% and the 19% and the 24%, you're like, what am I doing? So you got, it's, it's, it's personality driven like everything else. But it's, it's, I'm so glad you, I'm so glad you said that this concept goes into, goes into hibernation in a bull market. People stop talking about it. And then when there's a crash, all of a sudden, you start to see the permanent portfolio

content come back. And you could do it worse. It works. No, I don't think it's bad. but to your point, like, it's a permanent portfolio, but there's a tradeoff. You're not racing the stock market in a bull market. And after five years of a bull market, you'd probably be looking at this thing like, what the hell did I just do?

Look what I just missed out on. Put up the permanent portfolio one one more time, guys. So when you do it with gold, this is what it really looks like, not the commodities. So you get, what you could, Michael, when you say like the most important thing here is how how few negative years. Yeah. And those negative years are like a lot. The average down year is minus 3%.

So you almost can sleep at night with this permanent portfolio no matter what's going on except a runaway bull market. Right. Then you're not sleeping at night. Then you're cursing yourself for being such a coward. I feel like this is like there's a very type of investor that buys these things, right? It's people that are wary of government dead and whatever. And for those people, like, this is sensible.

I understand. Put up the hit rate. I love that they did this. They did this at the last minute for us, Charquette and Sean. So this is the, what we want you to understand about this, guys, is that there's a price to be paid. If you want something that's permanent and simple to understand, like 25%, 25%, 20%, right? If you want that and if you want that and if you want sleep like, a baby, you could have it.

But here is the price that you pay, and here's what you give up. Yeah. The SPX, the best year back to 1928, is plus 52%. The best year the Sleep Like a Baby portfolio has ever given you is 27% or half. And the permanent portfolio is 39%, which is actually pretty great. Now you go To these rolling performance periods The best ever

The percentage of positive Annualized returns For the S&P On a five-year basis is 88%. That sounds awesome Until you remember that 12% of the time You're down The sleep like a baby

And permanent portfolio Are more like 95% positive 98% is like That's like you're almost never done I mean, obviously we just shrug that you're almost never down. It's, so that's the cost, that's the benefit. Anyway, Hartnett's saying, without getting into like the whole thing, money does grow on C's. He's saying the four Cs are the key to this year, curve steepeners in the bond market, consumer cyclical, chip stocks, and commodities.

That's too cute. Very cute. What are we doing here? Not as cute as Halo. All right. Let me just for fun to show you there, there is an actual mutual fund based on the permanent portfolio. And there's a whole company that exists just to manage it. And this is what they are showing is their target portfolio structure.

Give me the pie chart. So they have gold, 20% silver five. Then they're doing 10% in Swiss franc assets. Okay. Another 15% in real estate and natural resource. source stocks. Then aggressive growth stocks is 15% and 35% are dollar assets. So that's their, I guess that's how they actually run.

Let me show you that this is the all-time performance since inception. That's 2,000%. And that seems incredible. It is. Until I show you it versus the S&P total return. But it's not the same thing. But still, the S&P total return of 4,000%. is 4xed.

I'm just, yeah, but you know what? You got it, you, you did pretty damn good. Yeah, you did.

You really did. You did sleep at night. You really did. So the, I didn't realize this. The, the fund family, it's actually called

permanent portfolio family of funds. I wonder if somebody else owns that. So that particular strategy has, uh, eight, almost $7.4 billion dollars in it. So good for them. They're delivering value to their investors.

It's good. You love to see it. Jonesy 1289, Smart. is saying halometer, halometer. Go sniff glue. That's good. Okay.

All right, good stuff. All right, let's do this real quick. So our friend Alex had duality research showed what happens to semiconductors after a momentum thrust. And it makes me uncomfortable the way you say thrust. thrust. I really lean into it. Yeah. So the average return.

Every, every letter in that word. Every single letter. The average return after said thrust, after 63 days is 12%, okay? Yeah. And we're at 29%. It's like too much.

It's like way too much. It's off the charts. Well, today they reversed finally. Yeah, but, but did they? I mean, SMH was,

SMH was down three percent. right after being up 40% in three weeks. So in other, this is going straight up. I never heard this term before. I'm sure you have the ludicrous list. Josh, you know about this? No. What is that?

So bespoke tracts this. And I actually did see somebody else reference it recently, maybe because they did. One way we have taken tabs on a general level of frothiness in equity markets is a screen for the number of stocks meaning a general criteria. All right. So here we go. Stocks with a market cap above $500 million.

Check. A price to sales ratio above 10x. And a doubling in the stock price year over year. At the moment, there are 175 stocks meeting this criteria. This is like the classier version of the D-Gen Dow. Correct. That's exactly right. All right.

So what's in the list? Do we know what's in the list? I'm sure it's a lot of semis. The point is the list is now very large because a lot of stocks have done this. 175 stocks are over half a billion market cap, price to sales above 10 and have doubled. Yeah, I believe it.

So the collective market cap is that like $2 trillion, and it looks like it's about, it looks like it's about, no, more, $20 trillion. And it's about a quarter of the entire Russell 3,000 market cap. Holy shit. I mean, you just, it's like every semiconductor. It's every power supply company. Every, like, telecom networking component company.

Like, you just think of, like, huge categories of stocks where there are tons of tickers. And you could picture, you could picture it. It's a party. It's definitely a party. It's a party. All right. I wanted to just point out on this semiconductor reversal thing. I asked Sean for this for CNBC today.

You know, people buying stocks that are parabolic on like the 12th day of a rally. It's almost, I was saying like people don't even know how to buy stocks anymore because like they never were taught anything. They just opened an app and started trading. Imagine buying a stock that's up 12 days in a row betting on 13. Now people are like, yeah, but then they went up six months. more days. Okay. That's the trades. That's the trade you want to, that's the, that's the bet you want to make. I guess you could do it. So we wrote a column for CNBC Pro yesterday morning, Monday morning. And the message was, yeah, these stocks look amazing, but pump the brakes.

Here are better entries for microchip technology, Broadcom, Nvidia. Invidia, I like the entry, actually. Yeah, it's good. And Intel. And like, just the concept of just, forget about the price and forget about the shape and how parabolic, just solely on RSIs. Professional investors don't buy stocks with an 84 RSI. Because what you're buying at that moment is the highest momentum stock in the entire market. And it never, it's never the right entry. It's like, it's, it's the most, the, the thirstiest thing. you could do.

So we looked at the RSIs of the biggest chip stocks going into the market today when they all reversed. On was an 88 RSI. Can you imagine? No stock should be at 88 except for the day it comes public. Doubles. ST Micro 87, Intel 83, AMD, AMD, AMD 80, Marvell 7. Texas Instruments, which should never have a 76 RSI, 76.

Monolithic power, 76, NVIDIA 76, Qualcomm 74. Then you look at the DRAM stocks. Look out. Something called Kayoxia? You guys could correct me on that. I don't know. Is that a Korean company? I don't know.

81 RSI. Seagate 77, Western. digital 75. Dude, hold on. Seagate is up 14% in the after hours last time I checked. Buy it now. Hurry up. You know what?

The SMH, the SMAG might go red tomorrow. It's 200% above. It's too much. It's all too much. Yeah. Anyway, if you learn nothing else from this time that you spent with us this evening, like professionals are not buying 85 RSI. It doesn't mean the stock can't go higher.

But just like you are putting the odds so far in the wrong direction versus yourself when you do stuff like that, you might win sometimes. The amount of times you're going to get burned are significantly higher in quantity. Is that a fair statement to make? Yeah, it's like taking a fadeaway shot at half court. You just, it might go in, but probably not. It's, wait, it's not impossible to make money. Don't do it. It's probably the wrong.

move to me. I think most most most most most most most most most most most definitely know that and I think the people that are buying it in general are like very short term in nature. I don't think anybody's initiating a new long term position. I don't know. No, because you know there's a lot of people that will buy a top. They don't know what's the top at the time. I know it has to be it turns out to be the top and they're not selling because then that would mean they were wrong and nobody wants that. Yeah. All right. Let's do Spotify. So, um, They've got new leadership in there.

And on their report, they said, we are pleased with our performance in Q1. No one else is? As all of our KPIs met or exceeded guidance. The business added 10 million MAUs versus guidance for $8 million, while subscribing to net additions of $3 million were in line. Revenue was in line with guidance and grew in an accelerated 40% year-over-year basis,

gross margin exceeded guidance and expand to 1303 basis points. Fast forward. Overall, we view the business as well positioned to deliver improved growth and margins in 2020. 26 as we reinvest to support our long term potential. You don't want to read that when the stock is down like 11% on the day. They beat the shit out of this thing. And it was already down.

It was already in and drawdown. So it wasn't it wasn't the worst quarter. They're right. They're right. The problem is it wasn't what they delivered this quarter. It's what they split what they guided to next quarter. It's not great. It's just it's not good.

And the stock is not growing the way. The company's not growing the way that it should be. A lot of problem with the ad supported tier. and it's not a cheap stock at all. So you just can't miss like this. Biff Graebles points out it's in a 45% drawdown from the summer. I didn't even realize that. It's getting, this is reminiscent of what they did with Netflix.

Yeah. And it's a very similar type of business. It's about subscribers and spending money on content that you then distribute amongst those subscribers. I mean, it doesn't look like a bad quarter. I don't know what the, I don't know what people thought they would get. It wasn't a bad quarter. It's the guide.

The guide was bad. The guide was bad. I mean, it's how it goes. It's, you know, you can't call it a bubble. I'm sorry. You can't say the market's a bubble and then have punishment for companies that miss or make and just don't give strong enough guidance. That's not a bubble. This is not a stock.

A bubble would be like, oh, whoops. The guide's a little light this quarter, but don't worry. We'll get them back at the end of the year. it'll be a second half story and the stock goes up 20%. That's a bubble. The market saying no, we don't believe you. It's a very disciplined market and they are beating up companies that don't do everything exactly perfectly.

Yep. Which brings us to Robin Hood. Yeah, so Robin Hood is double miss. I feel a little bit better about missing the rally from 70 to 100. The stock is now back at $75. And this is, so we spoke a lot in the first quarter. There was one, I think it was with. farmer gym actually where we were talking about like the balls have left and the retail participation

like is out like they are gone they left the building and this is the crowd that left the building so let's go through some of their charts um all right i want you to focus on the bottom too so we've got total platform assets down from 322 billion dollars in the previous quarter 307 billion dollars today. But the problem, Josh, is that they had net deposits of $18 billion. So net deposits of 18 and yet total assets on the platform are down 15. How does that happen? People lost money. People are not, people are losing money, which brings me to the next slide. Look at the financial results. Because you're doing dumb shit. Look at the financial results. Yeah, net income is down pretty Biggley. What does that say? Earnings per share? It can't be right. Seeser5 bucks. Whatever it is.

Their financial results are going in the wrong direction, all right? Because people are trading less. So a transaction-based revenue for crypto was down 39% for the quarter, quarter, quarter. And options-based transactions are down 17%. It's not fun when you're losing money. So the customers chilled out. They'll be back, no doubt. But it was a tough quarter. Now, longer term, you know, Robin's doing a lot of great stuff. But it was a tough quarter.

And crypto is a big part of their business. And it's not going great. Hey, I'll give you the other side of this story. I think we just heard from Jane Street. And I know that Jane Street's not the counter party for every single Robinhood trade. No, you're right. You're right. They are.

Bloomberg News is able to write financial reporting stories on Jane Street because Jane Street, I think, has bonds. And because they have publicly traded bonds, it necessitates a certain amount of SEC filings on the company's financials. But they are effectively a trading shop and a hedge fund and they are private. But because of that publicly traded bond thing, we get some reporting there. Bloomberg just reported, this is insane. Q4 revenue for Jane Street, 15.5 billion with a B, total 2,025 revenue of 39.6 billion, and total 2025 EBITDA of 31 and a half billion. Jane Street made $30 billion in, effectively, in free cash flow last year.

And that's more than Walmart. Dude, that's one of the biggest companies on Earth. Nobody can name a single person who works there, let alone the CEO or any of the partners. 99% of people on Earth have never heard of it. And those that have don't even know where they're headquartered or what they do. $30 billion in annual cash flow. And their counterparties are these numb nuts at Robin Hood. like taking flyers on fucking crypto shit and zero day options.

Like, do you honestly think that those levels of trading were sustainable? Like, people run out of money at a certain point. So, like, this is who you're, this is who you're trading against. Like, like, La Cozanostra of the financial universe. They're killing you. They're eating you. Every time you press buy, they press sell. They love it.

Keep doing more of it. And it's, listen, man, when I was coming up, if you were day trading, you were day trading against some other schmuck sitting in their own basement. And you couldn't meet each other eye to eye. And there was a market maker in the middle. That market maker was barely making any money to, right? This is a different world. Now you are trading against the greatest traders of all time and they're not even human.

They're literally software programs designed to relieve you of your, of your whole. No, I like my chances. Still want to do it? All right. Feel free. Anyway, just it. Sorry to just inject the dose of reality. That's okay.

What brings the Robin Hood trading enthusiasts back to full strength? Like another bubble? Dude, they didn't leave entirely. Like Q1 transaction-based revenue for options was 240. It was 260 this quarter. Equity was stronger. I mean, they're still at it. So higher prices.

But they're still there. But they need crypto to come back because that's, I don't know, is it 20% of their profit? It was 134 out of 623. But like in Q3, for example, it was 268 out of 730. All right. So I think Bitcoin back at 100,000 gets the juices flowing again at Coinbase and Robin Hood. and nothing really else can substitute for that. Agreed.

So, all right, we'll see if it happens. While I don't approve of short-term speculation, I love long-term speculation. And today's make-the-case is about the most speculative stock I own. And nobody should listen to this and think I'm giving them investment advice. This is a long, long, long-shot bet. I think it will require at least five to ten years in terms of holding period to justify the amount of risk I'm taking. And that is probably not everyone's cup of tea.

But here goes. I talked about Joby. I went to, Michael, did you know I went to the Joby test flight of their EVTAL, the first run ever from JFK Airport to the west side of Manhattan. And it was yesterday at the Blade helicopter lounge on 30th Street and 12th Avenue. So this whole thing took place over the Hudson. It sort of looked like the set for like a Spider-Man set piece, like with big cranes and helicopters in the sky.

And then this thing comes in for a landing. And John, give me some footage. So I'm standing right underneath this. So Joby bought Blade, which is the helicopter taxis, mostly for wealthy people to get to the hamptus. Look at this thing, dude. Look how smooth.

There's a pilot in there, no passengers. The pilot is obviously a professional. And they will, I think, be making five of these a month for the foreseeable future manufacturing and trying to ramp that up to 50. So there aren't a lot of these on the planet earth just yet.

This is the audience, and we're all cheering because they successfully landed. Pause this. You see the propellers? Yeah. Okay. So when the thing is sitting like this and it's about to lift off, that's the position of the propellers. They are perpendicular to the ground.

Once it lifts off to its cruising altitude, those props come forward like a plane. they're parallel to the ground and then it flies on a fixed wing and then when it's going to come in for a landing again the props will go vertical and it'll lower itself to the ground the difference between this

and a helicopter four major differences the obvious one is the sound this thing is silent it's like something out of dune it's hard to explain how insane it feels to watch that thing land in front of you

and it doesn't make a sound. Helicopter sounds like a thunderstorm, especially when you're right under it. You literally have to cover your ears. It's so loud. Two, the propellers themselves, there are six of them on this craft. And they're built,

the system is built with double redundancy. You can lose two of those props and fly under four of them. Very, very important for safety. A helicopter is one rotor. If you lose the big rotor, you're going down. No other, no ifs, or buts. The only question is, how fast and are you spinning in a circle in the dissent?

Terrifying. The third thing is, you know why they don't land helicopters on skyscrapers in New York anymore? When? Because they were literally blowing jet fuel exhaust into the air conditioning systems of buildings where people were working. Like, they used to take. helicopters off of hospitals. Like this was normal. News choppers would take off from like the roof deck of a building that people were working in.

They were blowing exhaust into the AC that people were breathing in. I'm laughing at my answer would. Don't ask me scientific questions. Okay. Anyway, so these are battery. And the thing about Jobi is they're going for vertical integration very much like Tesla once did, like SpaceX does now. Like they're writing the software. They're training the pilots.

They're manufacturing the craft. They're making their own battery packs. Full vertical integration. Not cutting any corners, really thinking through the manufacturing from start to finish. Why does this thing going to be live? It is live. You just looked at it. So next month...

You know what I mean. Look at this guy. So next month, the EIPP takes effect. This is the EVTAL chart off. EV-Tal integration pilot program. By integration, they mean starting to integrate these things in the low Earth orbit with like airplanes and literally at a federal level overhauling air traffic control to account for the fact that these are going to be in the sky.

Later this summer, the taxi, the air taxi service that's partnership with Uber and Joby will be flying in the skies above Dubai, the United Arab Emirates. And it will not be long before these things are taking flight from New York to the airport. So I think there's a hundred mile range. So the Hamptons might be a little bit of a stretch or Montauk might be a little bit of a stretch. But how long would you approximate it would take to get from JFK to the west side of Manhattan? 10 minutes. By car.

Oh, forget about it. it two hours yeah gotta be two hours let's say charitably at two a.m it might be whatever it would be horrendous seven minutes yeah okay now think about somebody in a car accident who needs to be airlifted to a hospital this versus a chopper or this versus an ambulance on wheels get to the joby um anyway Joby is probably my most speculative holding. I don't think that I wouldn't call it pre-revenue

because they got $100 million in revenue from buying Blade annually. Pre-market cap. It's like $8 billion bucks. $8 billion. Look, one of the things with Joby is every time the stock price gets momentum, they do a secondary and I get it.

They've raised billions of dollars in cash and they're going to need it because they're burning probably $500, million dollars and you know these things are going to cost a lot of money to manufacture that being said they talk about this guy joe ben who i met yesterday do we have that picture this is the CEO that's why it's called joby there he is his name is uh joe ben and um they talk about him like like the guys at work for him talk about him like he's thomas edison like somebody said to me and another investor in the company chart off said to me there were like 30 of these guys

on earth at any one time, like the Benjamin Franklin's of the world, the Elon Musks of the world, and they think Joe Ben is one of those guys. The last thing I'll say about this, they've been working on this for like 20 years. It's not like some project that started in 2021. This is a very, very long-term vision, and they are now, like, within range of seeing this actually happen in the real world. After decades of solving physics challenges. and technological barriers, like they are there. So I'm making the case. I'm telling you right now, this is not for the faint of heart.

I absolutely think the stock could 10x, also it could go to zero. I just, I won't be the one that knows for sure. So whatever capital I have invested in here, I'm definitely taking a risk. But that is the bull case for Joby Aviation. What are your thoughts? I love, first of all, I hope this works out for humanity. I love that you're making the case after a 50% plus drawdown. I would feel way less comfortable if you were promoting this.

I bought more recently since it sold off because I don't give a shit. So, yeah, listen, you said all the right things. You laid out the case. It is highly speculative and I hope it works. Yeah, you know what? We'll check back in on this in like five years. Okay, deal. How smart or stupid I look.

All right, I've got a mystery chart for you. And this is the smallest stock in the Dow. and probably coming out at some point. Because that's, you know, that's what they do. Wait, wait. What is this? Is the Dow component current? This is the smallest stock in the Dow.

It had a market cap of $275 billion at the peak, and it's now at like $60. There we go. Thank you. Great work. What sector? Please give it? What sector?

Let's say consumer discretion. Consumer to squash. Is it a retailer? Mm-hmm. Is it Target? Home Depot? Yeah, you're right track-ish, I suppose. It is, I'll give one more clue.

Okay. Management f***ed up big time. I'm seeing guys in the chat say Nike. Is Nike in the Dow? This is in the Dow? Yeah, dude, it's $44 stock. It's coming out. It's by far the smallest name.

Dude, that's unbelievable. Yeah. It's $60 billion? Like, could this go private? Could this literally, like, could Nike be taken private? Yes. Could Nike get bought by the Saudis? Yeah, so I don't know what the shelter structure is or anything like that, but,

but that's crazy, dude. Like what? You gotta think, even though even though, even though, Shoe Dog came out, the book. Even though it looks beyond, it looks like death, the floor is not that much lower than $66 billion equity. I'm not buying it. But is Nike relevant to people under under 20?

I couldn't tell you. Like Nugget, I feel like Nugget wears Air Force ones, but all the boys wear Jaws. They all wear Nike sneakers still. Yeah. Shit. One thing I noticed is every time they arrest a mass shooter or or some sort of, they're wearing Nike tech. I noticed there is a lot of Nike tech. with whenever somebody's shooting somebody.

That's enough of that. It's not great. All right. Shout to Nike. I still love the brand. I still wear a lot of Nike stuff. Maybe I'll take a look at that and catch that falling knife. Guys,

thank you so much for watching. Thank you for listening. We love doing the show for you live. So for those of you who join us in the chat, we really appreciate you all coming through each and every week. It adds a lot to the show and we love you for it. I want to remind you guys tomorrow's Wednesday, which means an all new animal spirits with Michael and Ben.

We'll do an Ask the Compound with Ben and Duncan taking your questions. Send your questions to Ask the Compound Show at gmail.com. For the latest in financial fashion, check out Idonshop.com where we always have new compound merch just for you. And at the end of this week, I got to tell you, a very, very poignant and special. edition, I believe, of the compounded friends. I think you're going to love it and I can't wait to bring it to you. All right, that's it from us. Have a great night. Talk to you soon.

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