The Compound and Friends - Software Stocks Melt Down, Palantir Beats, Energy up 12%

Episode Date: February 3, 2026

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Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:18 Here we are. I'm furiously typing away. It looks like my daughter just got an internship. Hell yeah. So it's only February 3rd. I mean, if you don't get these things by like December for the following summer, you're kind of screwed. As insane as that sounds, that's the, that's how it works. So, all right.
Starting point is 00:00:40 Hi, everyone. Welcome to a new edition of What Are Your Thoughts. My name is downtown Josh Brown with me as always my host, Mr. Michael Batnik. Michael say hello to the folks. What's up, everybody? How are we doing? All right. Well, they can't answer. So I know it's rhetorical, but I think they're doing well. The chat is packed.
Starting point is 00:00:58 John Suarez is here. Tom Dula. Billy Paul Matthew is here. Three first names. Always dangerous. They'll never play billiards with a man with three first names. Joe Altamoros says, hey, pounders. Hey, back, Joe.
Starting point is 00:01:15 Good to see you. Jay Conway in the house. SOTAC, Jason, Matt Stevik, Cliff is here, Mike Russo, Rebecca Farrell. Hi, Rebecca, what the hell happened with PE today? We're going to talk about it. Don't worry. We got you, Becky. All right, guys, welcome to the show.
Starting point is 00:01:35 For those of you who are new here, Michael and I every week, right around this time, Tuesday, 5 p.m. East Coast, talk about the biggest stories moving markets. We have a sponsor. Tonight's show is sponsored by Tucrium. Looking to diversify your portfolio beyond stocks and bonds, commodities are getting more and more attention as we enter 2026.
Starting point is 00:01:58 Tucrium's agricultural ETFs offer a way to access to futures prices of essential crops. These funds may help manage inflation risk and add diversification to your portfolio. Ask your financial advisor or explore Tuquium ETFs on your own. Visit tucrium.com.
Starting point is 00:02:14 That's T.E. U-C-R-I-U-M dot com. Click the link in show notes for more. All right. Thank you, too, Kri-M. Mike, do you want to start? I do. All right.
Starting point is 00:02:28 Let's go. So one of the things that we've been discussing over the past couple of weeks and months is, listen, it's not Michael and Josh that are bullish. We're in a bull market, okay? What do you want to tell you? At some point, it'll stop. It'll change.
Starting point is 00:02:43 Things will happen. We might be in a change. environment today. In fact, let me not caveat that. We aren't in a changing environment today. Whether or not the sell-off goes more or even begins, like things are beginning to change, okay? Chart on, please. This is what happened to the market today. A lot of red and a lot of former fan favorites. NVIDIA, boom, Microsoft, like all of the names that we name were deeply red. And this is not the Mac 7 market anymore. Next chart, please, John. So this is from Dow Jones. So this is from Dow Jones. S&P Dow Jones, and it is an incredible chart.
Starting point is 00:03:18 Kudos to them. I've never seen it broken out this way. Here's what we're looking at if you're listening. We are looking at the market performance from the end of 2024 through November 2025. Okay, that's the blue line. And from November 2024 to 2025, the top 100 names, so the Megicamp names,
Starting point is 00:03:40 were responsible for 88% of the market's return. The bottom 400, just 12%. It was all mega-cap stocks. And since November 3rd to today, the opposite is true. Only 24% of the return has come from the top 100. 76% of the return has come from the bottom 400. So I was chart off, please.
Starting point is 00:04:00 I was looking at the market today. And I'm looking at all of these bombed out names. Like stocks that are really getting the ship it out of them. We're about to go through some of them. And then I'm looking at the RSP. And the RSP is like flat down a little bit. it's 30 basis points off an all-time high. And I'm saying to myself, hey, you know what?
Starting point is 00:04:20 We spent so much time worrying, worrying about the 35% of the max 7, what would happen to the index when they fell. Well, guess what? 65 is bigger than 35 last time I checked. And I think we all just took for granted that when the 35 fell, the 65 would fall harder. And literally the opposite is happening. And I find it fascinating.
Starting point is 00:04:41 You're not giving us enough credit. We said this would happen. Well, we said it could. I think you and I both were pretty vociferously making the case that people selling those stocks are buying different stocks. And there was a lot of room in the other 65% of the market, a lot of capacity for new dollars. Can you put up the first chart real quick, the heat map?
Starting point is 00:05:09 Look what went up today. Not just up, a little, a lot. A lot. Look what went up today. J.P. Morgan, 2%, Berkshire, 1.6, Walmart. These aren't, these aren't like weird bullshit stocks. These are mega market caps. They're just don't happen to be tech.
Starting point is 00:05:27 Exxon Chevron, huge updates. And that's not in a vacuum. These are up days coming after these stocks have already been trending higher in some cases, the energy stocks in particular. So this idea that like all, you know, we talk. talked about why the Mag 7 and the NASDAQ mega caps became so important to the market, because a lot of the expected earnings growth is in those stocks, but not all of it. Not all of it.
Starting point is 00:05:57 So I think you and I were way ahead to this idea because you forget how strenuously people were arguing, like, as goes the Mag 7, so goes to the rest of the market. Wrong. No. Next chart. So. for a lot of the past couple of years, it was a thin market. And this is the number of constituents in the SEP outperforming over the past three months.
Starting point is 00:06:22 If we were to like zoom this out to over 12 months, you would see that for a lot of the last couple of years, it was low. But look at the last three months. Holy mackerel. Basically, the most amount of stocks that have been outperforming over a three-month period really since like the dot-com bubble busting. Now, we've had a few of these instances, but there's so many stocks are beat in the index and you love to see it yeah the other thing that we were right about the only way the
Starting point is 00:06:50 AI CAPX boom wasn't a bubble is if the benefits accrue to the s and p 493 that's the only way otherwise yeah it was a bubble but when we're seeing rallies in all of these other sectors and we're seeing the benefits of AI start to be talked about as companies give earnings guidance all the efficiencies they're finding and all the ways they're using AI to improve their businesses. And now we're seeing this outsized reaction in software stocks getting murdered because those companies' customers are going to be able to do what they do but without paying huge license fees. It really tells you that it wasn't a KAPX bubble and that the AI impact on the stock market may not be what we all thought it would be. For three years, it was up NASDAQ stock.
Starting point is 00:07:41 Now the AI impact on the market is sort of turning into a new story. Nobody wants it. Well, people are starting to think about the buyers of AI services being able to get rid of the application layer of their software stack. And that is the thing that had to happen in order to validate this whole AI theme. You had to get the customers had to have a benefit. Right. And now that's the new worry on Wall Street is that, wait a minute, this might be
Starting point is 00:08:11 might be happening faster than we thought. All right. Here's one part of the market. So you love to see stocks outperforming the index. Here's one part that I don't like. Next chart, please. All right. This is a favor of hours ago to, if you will.
Starting point is 00:08:24 We're looking at discretionary versus staples. And the dark blue one on the bottom is the cap weight because X, Y is like 40% Amazon and Tesla. And the light blue line is the equal weight. And they're both going in the direction that you don't want them going. You saw like Coca-Cola today went straight up. XLP, Staples is going vertical. You don't love to see that.
Starting point is 00:08:48 Like this is defensive names taking the baton from the leadership groups, the more risk on names. And this, I won't like hedge it. This is not a good. I don't like seeing this. The Staples are going to be AI beneficiaries. What do you think about that? Say more. Well, they these are incredibly, how should I put?
Starting point is 00:09:09 this we talk about asset light business models being like like um this coveted thing and high margin growth companies the staples are the opposite of all of that very little growth tiny margins and huge um heavy assets both occupying space on their balance sheets and um acting as giant cost centers the introduction of an AI layer into these Fortune 500 consumer staples companies can only mean margin improvement. It won't make more people drink Pepsi, but it'll certainly help the company streamline the delivery of Pepsi. Pepsi went up 5% today, by the way. And Coca-Cola, over the last year total return, 22%. So, you know, I don't know.
Starting point is 00:10:01 I guess what I'm trying to tell you is, I get it discretionary versus staples as like a signal of the economy. We tried that with utilities two years ago and it was wrong. The rally in the utilities did not signal a problem with the economy. The economy actually ended up accelerating. Sometimes what buyers and sellers are doing in these industry groups and sectors is not what you think it is at first blush. There is a world in which the third. or 50 or whatever consumer products companies that we call Staples are able to get on earnings calls and tell you how much better their businesses are running because of AI.
Starting point is 00:10:43 And we start thinking of them as AI beneficiaries. And look no further than Walmart, which joined the $1 trillion club today. Walmart is, Michael, say it for everyone. What sector is it in? Staples. All right. Discretionary staples. Staples, right?
Starting point is 00:10:57 Staples. So I just want people to expand their minds. and understand even stories that we've told ourselves for 100 years about the Dow transports or the utilities or defensive versus growth, everything needs to be rethought in the age of a genetic AI. I love it so much. That was vintage Josh Brown, one of your finest takes. I'm going to leave now.
Starting point is 00:11:20 That was really good. That was really, really, really good. All right, you've got a clip that you want to play from John Gray? Yes. John, can you hit it? Everyone's focused on these bubble risks. I think the biggest risk is actually the disruption risk. What happens when industries change overnight, like what we saw to the yellow pages back in the 90s when the internet came along or what happened to Uber when Uber and Lyft came to the taxi business 10 years ago?
Starting point is 00:11:49 In the last two weeks, we saw J.P. Morgan say they're going to stop using proxy advisors and use AI instead. We heard lemonade say that if you use your AI-powered self-driving Tesla, during those miles, we're going to cut rates by 50%. What does that mean for insurance companies? What does that mean for collision repair companies? And so we're spending tons of times thinking about rules-based businesses, accounting, legal. How are these businesses going to change? What about on the portfolio company side?
Starting point is 00:12:19 Are there companies or industries that you're rethinking or wouldn't touch or wouldn't put new money into because of the fear? of AI disruption? There's definitely more risk in certain industries. There's no question that you have to think about some of the lower value IT services businesses, some of the businesses that are intermediaries where you may have these agentic agents, these agentic commerce happening, which could change the way we do things. I do think looking at each business is really relevant.
Starting point is 00:12:52 And when you think about things like software, for instance, is it a vertical software that is sort of the system of record for our business that is very hard to rip out, or is it some low-level horizontal software where it's easy to change and therefore the AI could lead to a big erosion in your business? And so every deal that we're doing today in the first two pages of the memo, we're saying what is the AI risk? So that's John Gray very eloquently talking about exactly what you and I just, just just touched on, which is we spent so much time over the last two years worrying about, is this a bubble and maybe not worrying enough about how quickly this was going to be upending all of these
Starting point is 00:13:41 software companies and a lot of like a lot of businesses that up until now had looked just absolutely bulletproof. And so maybe the real concern here is not bubble. It's disruption at a pace that we were not ready for. And that's what that's what's, look, tomorrow could be a totally different day. Um, but that's what's playing out on our screens right now. The irony with that, and by the way, that was, that was an awesome clip. Good find is, um, John Gray at Blackstone, the stock got murdered today and not just them. A lot of private equity, all term asset mattress got killed. Guess what? In 2025, Blackstone and Vista equity partners bought a company called smart sheet for $8.4 billion. Smart sheet, I went to the website, there's a smart way for your
Starting point is 00:14:29 organization to work. It's a SaaS company. And a lot of these private equity companies guess who they either bought or lent a lot of money to because it seemed predictable. So the SaaS businesses. These are enterprise contracts. They're in good shape. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. They're like, they're in it right now. And a big reason why these names are under pressures because they have either acquired or lent money to a lot of the software names. And look at the equities of these companies. They're getting bombed out. I was going to.
Starting point is 00:14:57 So right when John was done talking, and that was a Bloomberg clip, I think, from last week. So he was, it's not like he's on TV today reacting to what's going on today. But I was going to jump right on the end of what he was saying and says and say. And says, I says. And said spoken like a man who's just become the largest cap X capital supply. to the entire data center business, which is what Blackstone is. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:15:25 Anyway, but I thought he phrased it correctly. Like, are we ready for a world in which the price of all of these things drops for corporations and they no longer need to pay for all these applications and all these enterprise licenses? Like the stock market today looks like it was sort of thinking about it. and then all at once, everyone decided, oh, it's here. Yeah. It's not in 2027. It's 2026.
Starting point is 00:15:56 Yeah. So. All right, let's do some more bombed out stuff. So Oracle tweeted, you never want to see this. The NVIDIA-I deal has zero impact on our financial relationship with Open AI. What? We remain highly confident in Open AI's ability to raise funds and meet its commitments. Oh, yeah?
Starting point is 00:16:13 The market said hold my, I don't know, I try something funny. I had like, I had like, very little exposure to this to this particular aspect of what was going on today it was something like there's a problem with invidia chips and open ai doesn't want to take an investment capital from that what is this old bullshit i haven't read the story you understand it i haven't i saw the headless i haven't read the story yet but yeah not not something that you want to see if you're if you're a shareholder don't worry we're good i swear to god we're well no i saw i saw invidia say what this is a lie. Okay. Like I saw it refuted before. In other words, I didn't have a chance to panic about it yet
Starting point is 00:16:54 because I already saw the refutation. Tomorrow. Tomorrow. Tomorrow. Tomorrow. It was something to the extent of like, uh, open AI is having problems with invidious chips. Therefore, the investment that Nvidia said they were making an open AI might not happen, which is what hit Oracle. But I didn't understand the exact rationale for why people were saying it. Well, it sounds like you know a lot more than I do. All right, two more charts. Spotify and Netflix continue to be the exact same chart for the most part. And new fresh lows.
Starting point is 00:17:29 And I got to tell you, I know like I'm about to do something I shouldn't do. I'm just circling. I'm just circling Netflix mentally. I haven't done anything. I'm waiting. I'm stalking. Can you let them go up for two days in a row first? I know.
Starting point is 00:17:43 I'm stalking. Two green days. Listen, Netflix will not be disrupted by AI. All right. Next chart. Microsoft. off fresh lows liberation day type selloff down 24% invid invidia not quite to the same extent at all but it's invidia's invidio is just technically not looking too healthy am dmd reported tonight
Starting point is 00:18:03 i think it was a double a double beat and not much not much in the stock amd looks like a double top the stock is down i don't know a couple of percent in the after hours all right let's get down one and a half percent today another seven and a half percent post earnings and that's on quote unquote good news. Okay. Yeah, double beat. I don't know if we've seen the worst for the video. Down seven on a double beat is not what you want to see.
Starting point is 00:18:25 All right. Lastly, some of the sales, some of the work, oh, geez, some of the sales, software, damn it, sorry. Software stocks we've been talking about the last couple of months. New fresh lows, just the, the trap, the door just keeps getting worse, the trapdoor or whatever. Adobe down 41, at Lazy and down 68, service now 47, workday 42, Salesforce 43. These are all below their 52-week kind.
Starting point is 00:18:50 It's not like a three-year return. So with that, let's go. This is one of the most violent, this is one of the most violent re-ratings for any sector I have ever seen. Would you co-sign that? Number one for me. I've never, yeah, I guess I haven't been around that long. I've never seen an industry group in my mind. Maybe, maybe like, coal and things like that.
Starting point is 00:19:13 But something like this large, this is a huge. It's the dollar amount. Right. It's the dollar amounts involved. It's not just the prices and it's not just the steepness of the decline or the compressed window of time. It's the dollar amounts involved. Like I've seen sector re-w ratings. Like I saw the coal stocks go to zero.
Starting point is 00:19:37 I saw the steel stocks go to zero. Like I've definitely seen some shit, but like they were tiny. And there wasn't that many of them. And we've seen we've seen re-ratings and like utilities. in the ZERP era, right? Where it was like macro factors and investor preference, but nothing like this where it's like all of these names, you're gonna be worth a lot less in the future
Starting point is 00:19:58 than you are today. I'm just telling you. Can you imagine a venture capital fund where there's like 20 names in the portfolio and 16 of them are SaaS? Yeah, and guess what? The portfolio has been marked up. Yeah, you haven't, you've got one exit,
Starting point is 00:20:12 but the portfolio is marked up three times. Nope, not anymore. Really brutal. And like also in the portfolio, they have like two robotic stocks and two defense, two robotic startups and two defense startups. And they're like clinging to good news from those with like for dear life. Because otherwise they have nothing to tell their LPs.
Starting point is 00:20:31 Like, like we would talk about IPOs three months ago. We're not IPOing software companies anymore. I don't think so. That's on, it's on pause right now. Yeah. So it's being pointed out in the chat, situation zero. So PE owns lots of mid-market software. Right.
Starting point is 00:20:48 Like those are the types of investments. A lot of like hyper-specific vertical stuff like, oh, we are the leading provider of software for rental car agencies, like stuff like stuff like that, where somebody in the IT department is just going to be like, yo, I just wrote a program that lets us rip this thing out of here. It's scary. It is scary. Okay. So I'm calling this IGV, which is the software ETF, the I shares product, IGV nuclear Armageddon. That's what I'm calling this particular selloff.
Starting point is 00:21:26 Let's do this first, this first daily chart book thing. Frigant Adam Parker, nailed it. So, all right, Adam says, many software companies have been revising their expectations for future revenue and earnings down. In fact, we haven't seen this much downward revision to the median social. company sales estimates relative to the broader tech sector since the 2009 financial crisis chart off this is it all makes sense it's not just investors are like changing their mind the companies are aggressively lowering their guidance it is bad the PEs are coming down
Starting point is 00:22:07 the ease are coming down the prices are coming down where this bottoms like it is scary shit man I I think yeah so I think what happened last last year. I mean, I'm just, I'm like overgeneralizing. And obviously this is in the case for every one of these companies. But I think there was like this moment of like suspended disbelief last year where a lot of a lot of like CTOs were just like, let's wait and see. Like in other words, before we recommit to the same license, the same number of seats we were paying for in 2025, before we recommit to that in 2026 or whenever the content, contract is up. Let's like let's just take a part. Let's take a beat and see what's going on out
Starting point is 00:22:52 there because there might be new solutions. And then you have like Google and you have Microsoft and you have Amazon Web Services. Whoever at your company is interacting with the reps there, they're screaming at you. You don't need to buy any of this shit. Like our models just tell it what you want and the model will build you exactly whatever point solution you want what like so they're hearing from their cloud provider like don't buy anything just hang out because we have a whole new story to tell and so i think people just like paused and now this year you're seeing like the reality of that start to dawn on on everyone which is like it's a financial crisis for software companies like the buyers have now the buyers can
Starting point is 00:23:46 can go back and say, what do you mean $80 ahead? How about $50 ahead or we'll look at something else? Like they haven't been able to ever do that. You want to run a business. You need software. It was the opposite. It was the opposite. These companies were raising our fees every year.
Starting point is 00:24:02 Yeah. Every single year. By the way, I just want to point out that my my flu game take when I said, I actually think that software semi's bottoms is the, I hope it's my worst take of all time. I just hope that what is the, what was the, what was the, Remember, I said I actually think that a lot of the software names that are getting bombed out are going to end up being a beneficiary of AI. Like Adobe and Salesforce are going to take AI, integrate it, and then have a better output. Some will.
Starting point is 00:24:28 Maybe. But anyway, it's just hilarious. It was the worst time to call that I could personally remember for myself in a long time. Hopefully the worst ever. All right. Anthropic launched a legal tool today, which if you listen to the financial media was the thing that's set off today's selloff. And so it just completely hammered the sector.
Starting point is 00:24:53 Like, they, it just like everyone, everyone lost their mind over it. So this is Bloomberg. Once again, artificial intelligence is dominating investors' attention in stock market. These days, however, the focus is turning more toward companies that may get disrupted rather than those who stand the profit from it.
Starting point is 00:25:12 A Goldman Sachs basket of US software stock sank 6% Tuesday. biggest one day declined since April's tariff-fueled sell-off as a new automation tool from anthropic heightened concerns about the business prospect blah blah blah blah blah it's a legal and data services technology with and and so anyone that even touches that space peripherally nuclear armageddon and i don't even fully understand like anthropic launched new capabilities for its co-work to the legal space, heightening competition within the space,
Starting point is 00:25:47 says Morgan Stanley. We view this as a sign of intensifying competition and thus a potential negative. Blue Owl fell 13% on that news. I don't know specifically know why Blue Owl. Ares got killed, TPG got killed, Apollo got killed, Blackstone got killed. I suppose they would be the types of firms
Starting point is 00:26:08 that have made investments in areas like this. Does Blue Owl own like, do they invest in that company Harvey? Like, why would they fall 13%? They're not. Long before Anthropics plug-in, startups including Ligora and Harvey AI were flooding the legal industry with tools. They say, we'll save lawyers from grunt work. Why? Let me ask, uh, Claude why blue alpha, by the way, I am, all of a sudden, all of a sudden, I am in love with Claude. I started using it seriously on Sunday night. And it is so much better than chat, GPT. It's unbelievable. Well, now you are part of the
Starting point is 00:26:43 problem. All right. Software tech, hold on before you do that. It's saying software tech exposure business BDCs fell on Monday as concerns over the group. Yeah, it's software legal troubles. This is a class action lawsuit. All right. So it's it yeah. All right. You know what's interesting about this? Is this the anti-bubble? So not it's not like the AI names are going to the moon. Look at Microsoft, which is the way to get exposure. I guess in video too. These stocks are not mooning. They're not bubbling.
Starting point is 00:27:15 But the companies that are being displaced by AI are getting nuked. It's like an anti-bubble. Yes. But it's like because it's, but the reason the Russell was green today. And the reason why 270 S&P stocks were green with the index down is because what I started out saying, what we started out talking about, which is now we're talking about the benefits of all this. accruing to the customers to the users. What a story.
Starting point is 00:27:47 What a story. Here's the IGV. So this is like just a big picture of the whole software sector. You can see that we have now round-trip the entire recovery from Liberation Day almost a year ago, nine months ago. And guns in my head, we're going to break lower. Because the AI situation then was not as advanced as it is now. now and the fears were not as specific as they are. So I can't wait to see the 13 Fs.
Starting point is 00:28:19 Like there's, I think there's going to be some buyers in size. Yeah. Some of this is bombed out into some of these stocks are too low. I would agree. We agree. And by the way, the alternative asset managers are now going to be facing a situation for the first time in a long time where there might be some publicly traded targets in this space that are a better price than what they have been paying on the
Starting point is 00:28:42 private market. So that's all you could have take privates happen in the IGV names and nobody's ready for that. Okay, Thompson Reuters. So this directly touches the legal and data, the legal and data area that Anthropic is coming into disrupt. Like this is the company that sells information and sell software for law firms, large corporations, research outfits, et cetera. This thing, Annihilated today. Just absolutely taken out behind the woodshed. And look at it from the high. It's in more than a 50% drawdown.
Starting point is 00:29:21 This is a boring business. This is TRI, Thompson Reuters. Legal Zoom. Holy shit. Look at this candle. Oh, yeah, aye. Right? This is a $7 stock now.
Starting point is 00:29:35 Kiss it, good night. You think that $6.50 support from Liberation Day holds? No. I don't. Fact set. Hey, shout out to our friends. I know. Shout to our friends at Fax Set.
Starting point is 00:29:49 We like these guys and we love their products. But I mean, this is because how many things did you go to Faxed for that you now don't have to. I mean, you're the director of research at the firm. You're talking about court. You're talking about code right now. Okay, fine. I'm retired from that title. But your point was still in the role.
Starting point is 00:30:11 And no, I'm not. And fact set, again, like every other company, they just kept taking more, more, more, more. Oh, you want to use this? More. Everything was more and more and more. Do you have S&P in there, by the way? SPGI. I know it's bad.
Starting point is 00:30:30 Down 11 to side. SMP. Same thing. Same thing. Check this one out. Verrisk analytics. This name last year was on the best stock. the market list that hasn't been on for a while this thing if i pulled back the chart and showed you
Starting point is 00:30:46 like 10 years just up into the right relentlessly and is now fallen vrsk from that looks like 3 30ish down to 193 today's candle is just an absolute puke there's there's literally nobody pulling pulling the trigger on sales in that stock that's not absolutely terrified i'm on the website because i'm not familiar with this company powering better insurance decisions. The risk connects the global insurance industry through proprietary data and technology to deliver the insights at real people
Starting point is 00:31:19 dependent every day. Guess who also delivers real insights at a fraction of the price. I hope your data is super proprietary, my friends. All right, atlasian, this is team. This has always been a terrible, terrible stock. No, it was hot years ago, like years and years ago. All right. It was 300 a year ago.
Starting point is 00:31:37 It's 100. This stock had split three for one. enforced we used to call these market enforced splits it's not an actual split they just they just took two thirds of the price off um this is annihilated i don't know what the i don't know what the market cap is or care i don't know like is this the see the thing to me is like i'd rather buy microsoft i don't think i'll get the biggest bounce i just it ain't going to zero i'll feel less stupid if it doesn't bounce like like the risk management way to play this this nuclear Armageddon and the software stocks to me is not timing.
Starting point is 00:32:18 It's more like selection. Like I'll feel less dumb if I buy Microsoft and it pukes up another 12%. Yeah. Who cares? If I buy team at 100 and it goes to 80, I'll be suicidal because I know better. So I know not to do that. All right, take it easy. At Lazen had a market cap in 2021 during the bubble of $116 billion.
Starting point is 00:32:39 And then last year, it had a market cap. And when I say last year, ladies and gentlemen, I'm talking about February, like literally a year ago. It peaked at $85 billion in market cap. And it's now 27 on its way to what? 10? I don't know. Holy shit. Imagine you own this.
Starting point is 00:32:56 Imagine you have an S block against this. Like you borrowed money against this security because you're an executive and you bought a house. And the thing, the thing pancakes in one year drops. 70% a year. All right. So I did it's, it's not funny. It's sad.
Starting point is 00:33:13 So so the bubble years aside, it's stabilized in 2023 to 2025. It went sideways. And maybe this is the wrong metric, but whatever. Who cares? It went sideways at like 11 times sales, you know, like something like that.
Starting point is 00:33:27 Even last year at the peak, it was 15 times sales, 17 times. It's now five on its way to two. What are these names going to trade at if the earnings aren't sustainable? If the sales aren't sustainable. There's no, there's no floor. The thing is that I don't know that we're seeing like huge drop-offs for for these companies in sales yet.
Starting point is 00:33:47 Not yet. Markets not waiting for it. The market is just anticipating either problems with raising prices or problems with churn or just like outright contract cancellation. The market is like pricing in the absolute worst case scenario indiscriminately for all of them. I couldn't find a software company that was able to escape this. And I know some of that is algorithms and baskets and, um, and ETF stuff, but like the market is, even the cyber names, they came for the cyber names today. Like, you know, I'm the long term shareholder in crowd. They crushed it. It stocks down $150 from the tie.
Starting point is 00:34:33 So on it on a, on it lays in particular, I don't know anything about this business, but the revenue, it's up. I'm looking now. It's up until the right. dude like they're still growing at 20% year over year and the market's just saying i don't believe you like i don't come i'm not value or or congratulations on your past revenue great you it's not sustainable yeah that's it that's what it is all right uh palenteer reported last night they did it again earnings up 78 percent revenue up 70 percent and the business now that it's larger than it was a year ago is actually accelerating they're growing faster um and And, you know, it's remarkable the commercial part of Palantir, which is what everyone cares.
Starting point is 00:35:16 In other words, the government contracts are great. And yes, in the multiple, they do get some credit for that. But defense contractors notoriously don't, like, earn a really high multiple on those revenues. They're like highly dependable and everyone loves it. But it's not the thing that gets people excited. So it's the commercial part of the business where all. where a lot of, I shouldn't say all, a lot of the growth is. So put that back up, just so I could explain it.
Starting point is 00:35:47 The quarterly revenue is nuts, dude. Consent. Commercial revenue surged 137% year over year to chart off to 507 million. The estimate was 474. So it's a huge beat. Government revenue grew 66% to 570 million. So the company now is basically in balance. It's 50% military stuff and spy stuff,
Starting point is 00:36:14 and that it's 50% commercial business. And most of it is in the United States, not all, but I do think that there are companies and countries that are a little bit hesitant to open up all their data to Palantir, just given how tied in they are with the U.S. government. You could understand that, which might put a ceiling over how big this company can get.
Starting point is 00:36:36 Morgan Stanley's analyst, with 2026 guidance targeting growth of 61% plus. Palantir is on course to reach 10 billion in revenue at the fastest growth rate and highest margins, perhaps in software history, underscoring its status as a clear AI winner. Palantir delivered its fastest revenue growth as a public company, equally impressive as the margin performance.
Starting point is 00:37:01 The midpoint of the 26 outlook calls for operating margins of 56% which topped consensus looking for 50. For full year 26, Palantir said revenue in a range of $7.18 billion to $7.1.2 billion. And prior to today, analysts were looking for $6.295 billion. So it's a beat, it's a raise, it's faster revenue growth, faster earnings, better news on the commercial front. The government business is also growing fast. it's like if you're a tech investor, this has to be on your sheets. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:37:41 You can't. And yet, and yet, not the greatest reaction. Look at the environment. I know I'm saying. I'm saying the market's changing. It's not, it's not, it's not January anymore. It's February. Here's a guy from William Blair, Lewis DePama, said in his research report,
Starting point is 00:38:02 our research tracker suggests that the U.S. Department of is going all in on Palantir for its mission critical data analytics platform. I forgot that they renamed the Defense Department, the Department of War. I forgot that Trump did that last year. They also, the company is holding $7 billion in cash on its balance sheet. So it's just a remarkable report from a remarkable company. and I know the company's controversial, and I know there are political overtones
Starting point is 00:38:37 and not everyone agrees that they want to celebrate Palantir. But just from a purely investor standpoint, holy shit of these guys delivering. Yeah, yeah. All right, let's pivot to... Well, what's this quote? Oh, is this your... Did you put this in?
Starting point is 00:38:56 Oh, I almost... Yeah, I love this quote. It's a goody. Okay, this is so emblematic of the entire conversation we're having tonight and we're going to have more of it so stick around josh i'm glad that you flagged this thank you um all right this is we've said this before it's so god damn damn good from steve mandel the founder of loan pine capital i don't need an analyst to tell me when a 10 p e stock is cheap i need an
Starting point is 00:39:17 analyst to tell me when a 40 pete stock is cheap well right and that's very apropos palance of today and pay pal on the on the surface looked expensive turned out it was cheap paypal on the surface looked cheap turned out it was expensive. Exactly. All right. So we're seeing fewer positive surprises in the market, uh, earning surprises that is. And you're seeing them being less rewarded, which try on please won't be a popular take. And like I feel like I'm being like a Debbie Dana for this. I think it's really good that the bar is getting raised and it's getting harder for the stock market to keep going up uninterrupted because another 30% up here where you just have a free for all, more margin expansion, that is not good for everybody who is listening.
Starting point is 00:40:03 Ultimately, that sets us up for a major fall. And I would much rather this where we're getting the beat in the raise and stocks are having a muted reaction. Good. Let expectations catch up. You agree? Well, it's right. It's preferable to, it's preferable to, I think, having a situation where every
Starting point is 00:40:23 stock goes vertical at once and then gets killed all at once. It just, it sort of feels people are getting used to. the dispersion. And some sector's doing well, others not doing as well. I just, I think that's like a normal market. Today didn't feel normal though.
Starting point is 00:40:38 Today felt, no, today was ugly. Today was, today was a risk off day. Yeah. For sure. No, no,
Starting point is 00:40:42 even though we had a lot of big stocks like J.P. Morgan Green, today just, today felt like something substantial about the market psychology has changed when it comes to AI. And they don't want to hear about,
Starting point is 00:40:58 uh, tech for a while yeah people want to go they want to hear about anything uh but tech all right last hold on in the chat what happened to service titan it went down jack what do you think happened to it it's a software it's a software company uh toast is down too also oh what are you getting excited about what is that anyone else anyone else in the chat want to uh uh shout out any other stock that i might have uh have have a have a red day all right all right um stocks go down to. Okay. So, uh, oh, Chipotle. All right. So here's a point. Here's the, the, the topic. The topic for today is avoid the garbage. And I have been guilty of this a million times. I will
Starting point is 00:41:44 continue at some point to bag my head against the wall. We all want to make money in the stock market. If we're buying individual stocks, it is a lot easier to make money for the stocks that are already going up. I am tempted by 52-week lows as much as anybody else here. I'm not. And I've, I've learned my lesson the hard time a million ways. It's much harder to make money this way. Okay. It just is. So, let's talk about Chipotle. Chipotle reported after our, Trippled report a knee-jerk reaction down 11% immediately. I don't know where it is trading right now. But I went to the report and I told you I listened to this guy's call last time and I just didn't like what I was hearing. I didn't like his voice. It just didn't. The new CEO? The new, yeah.
Starting point is 00:42:26 Scott Boatwright. So here's what Scott Boatwright said today, or in the report, okay, he said this on the report. Through our proven business model, prudent investments in operational excellence and the support of a strong balance sheet, 2025 was a year of progress and resilience for Chipotle. Against a dynamic consumer backdrop, we opened a record number of restaurants globally, okay, and grew Q4 and full year revenue. Really? Okay, let's look at the numbers, Scott. Comp store sales decreased two and a half billion. I'm sorry, decreased two and a half percent.
Starting point is 00:43:04 Is that good? No, it's bad. Operating margin was 14.1 percent, a decrease from 14.6 percent. Restaurant level operating margin was 23.4 percent. A decrease from 24.8 percent. So yes, revenue increased 4.9 percent. That's what happens when you open more stores. But inside the stores, Jack, things aren't doing so great.
Starting point is 00:43:24 And don't tell me about the consumer backdrop. Nobody wants this shit. It's enough already. So chart on. Look at Chapoelite. The stock. Two forward, please. Or one forward?
Starting point is 00:43:34 Yeah, here we go. Thanks, John. Listen, the stock's in a downtrown. Did they do a split in 24? Yeah, a while ago, I think. So I remember the stock trading in like the threes and four hundreds. Yeah. They did a 10 for one split.
Starting point is 00:43:47 Does that sound right? Yeah, somewhere along the way. Yeah, this was a $900 stock, I think, at some point. So, all right, here's the deal. With stocks like this, it's so tempting. It's Chipotle. It's a brand name, it's cheap, blah, blah, blah. Throw that chart back on.
Starting point is 00:44:00 Let's say that you were so smart to buy it a couple of weeks ago, a couple months ago at the bottom, all right? You got in. Now, fairness, the stock stabilized, right? So it gapped down to $32, and it spent the next couple of weeks going sideways, and then it accelerated. And guess what? There was a nice trade there.
Starting point is 00:44:17 It went $30 all the way up to $40, okay? So you had a 25% return in just a couple of weeks. You're feeling yourself. You're feeling good. What do you do now? I mean, here's another example. It depends on why you bought it, I guess. Lulu Lemon, same story.
Starting point is 00:44:32 You bought it for a trade. You're not, you're out of it. So all of these stocks, yeah, they could bounce. Lulu had a great bounce. We spoke about this. When the economist has Lulu on the cover, you just shut up and buy. And guess what? It worked.
Starting point is 00:44:45 The stock went from 160 to 210. What if you didn't take profits? Yeah. So do you take on, Like, I know you're not, you don't like bet a lot of games or maybe you used to when you were younger, but like, do you, do you find yourself taking dogs? Never. So why? So then why do you have that temptation of stock market?
Starting point is 00:45:07 Isn't it sort of the same thing? Yeah, it's such a good point. Like, to me, it's the same thing. It's like, like, obviously nobody thinks the Patriots are going to win. It's a very weird Super Bowl result, like how we got here. And now the Golden Boy is probably secretly injured. and like just whatever maybe maybe maybe i'm like being too pessimistic but i i think it's gonna be a blowout so how about this you're right but wait a but wait a minute if if you if you have
Starting point is 00:45:33 if you have if you have the kind of personality where you're like nope taking the patriots i'll take the points i'm taking the patriots um then it makes sense if you're bottom fishing in lulu because you're like it's lulu lemon they'll be fine i i just i don't have that attitude i i i maybe i'm like a frontrun I don't know, I'm just much more likely to look at whatever's doing great right now and assume it'll continue then constantly be looking for reverses. It's interesting that you mentioned that because like I would, if I was to tease the game, now I unintentionally have a lot of money on the Patriots because I did this stupid bet in week 16 where I bet a lot of money gets a C-Ox says, oh yeah, a free 40% return.
Starting point is 00:46:12 But if I was if I was coming in straight to this game, now the C-Rex are a better team, full stop, like period. I don't care what happens in the game. This Patriots can win. change the fact that the Seahawks are the better team, hard stop. Would I be more likely to take to tease the Patriots up to like 12 and a half than the Seahawks down to like plus two and half? I think I might and I don't know what's wrong with me. But I want to take it further. They're not just the better team because like objectively they are. But then they have more
Starting point is 00:46:44 momentum. Like the Patriots are winning these games in snowstorms, blizzards, like these very bizarre games that are not going to look anything like what's going to happen in the Super Bowl. So they might be better at like sloppy conditions football. And some of those games could have easily gone any other way. I don't think the Seahawks are amazing. I just think they're winning these standard games. They're killing teams. And they have like momentum.
Starting point is 00:47:09 It's not the best team I've ever seen, but they have momentum. So it's a combination of being better on paper and sort of gliding into the into the Super ball. The Patriots like tripped over. and fell backwards into it. Right, right, right, right. So it's like, it's multiple things. It's not just good team, bad team, good company, bad company.
Starting point is 00:47:27 It's like what are the immediate conditions around the stock or around the team? And that's, I don't know. I do a lot of stupid shit, but I'm allergic to stocks that look like Chipotle. Yeah, no, credit to you at all. Credit to you. So on the PayPal print, consensus. If I'm going to lose money, I want to lose money in toast. So it's, don't take it personal.
Starting point is 00:47:50 Consensus media tweeted, well, it was only nine and a half times forward earnings going to the print. PayPal, a first lesson in value traps for many. So, yeah, you could play this game. You're not going to make money. I mean, maybe by accident sometimes you will, but it's hard. The market is smart. We flirted with PayPal over the years, each of us individually. I definitely bought it and lost money.
Starting point is 00:48:10 But you know what we do? That's really well. At least what I do. I don't lose a lot of money in these stocks. If I'm wrong, I'm out. I don't care. I lost 4% in Adobe. I'm out.
Starting point is 00:48:17 Whatever. It doesn't matter. I'm getting married to the. these names and downturns. So PayPal had a promising story. They brought this guy Alex Chris in who had succeeded at Intuit. And he had a strategy. And the stock was reacting to him, you know, coming.
Starting point is 00:48:33 And he had a few quarters and the shine wore off and people no longer believed in them. And I think they just, I think he just stepped down today. Yeah, you might get a shine box after this. No, but it's like, you know, the story changes as part of it. And then the thing with the lesson from PayPal is. is when Apple decides they're going to destroy a company, it'll probably work because they own the device.
Starting point is 00:48:58 So you might have the best app, but they own the device. And if they're launching a competing app, I'll give you a really great example of this, where I haven't learned my lesson. The Life 360 story is so incredibly compelling. And any parent who's listening to this or watching us right now is probably familiar with Life 360. even if you don't use it, there's a good chance, like, families you know of in the neighborhood
Starting point is 00:49:23 are using it. So the company came public. They had, like, a really great growth story where they would, like, explain, like, how sticky the app is, and once a family is fully uploaded on it, they keep it forever, and blah, blah, they keep paying. And the one question they can't ever answer on their calls is what happens if Apple just decides to make this a feature. In other words, picture of family,
Starting point is 00:49:51 two kids in elementary school or junior high, they have phones, both parents have phones. What if Apple just rolls out an interface where you can see your whole family on a map? Who is paying for Life 360 ever again? It becomes completely redundant. And they can't answer that question. I saw her be interviewed,
Starting point is 00:50:08 and somebody asked her that. She can't answer it, the CEO. If Apple decides they're getting into your business, nothing will save you if your business's primary entree for the user is via an Apple device. It's such a great. That's such a good story. Do we like this is the world that we live in. It's tough shit.
Starting point is 00:50:28 It doesn't matter if we like it or not. I don't, I don't love this. Who does like that? I mean, you know, Tim Cook likes it. Apple shareholder likes it. I know, but it's what it is. So. It's what it is.
Starting point is 00:50:40 No, because you got, I mean, if you look at a chart of, uh, Life 360, you look at this thing just absolutely exploded in 2021 and everyone like discovered oh shit like this is a new growth story and it ran to I don't know 34 and now it's 20 I mean I'm not saying it's going back to two bucks but I don't what happens to a stock like this
Starting point is 00:51:04 I almost don't I don't know what to tell people so wait where is it? No life's that's $61 I don't have the wrong ticket in front of me my bad um i just i think that i think that people i think that people uh need to be reminded in certain businesses like anything tech related if apple says we're going to compete you out of business you should you should probably expect it and uh not be bottom fishing there i don't know if chipotle's the same story as that i'm just i'm making the point there are different reasons that should keep you from catching falling knives is that that's the way to say it totally
Starting point is 00:51:44 It's a good point. Okay. Was that it? That was it for me, I think. Do you want to do Kevin Warsh or do you want to skip it? Are we doing this on, are we doing this on, we're going to do this on the compounded friends this week. Okay.
Starting point is 00:51:56 Let's skip it. Can we end with good news? Love good news. All right. Housing market, which has been something people have been complaining about for, I don't know, seven years. It's becoming a buyer's market again. and the rental market too.
Starting point is 00:52:16 And this is objectively good news for people who have been screaming about the affordability crisis. We've had this hysteria over the housing market, and not unfounded, completely legitimately founded. This is the journal. The housing market is swinging toward buyers. Let me see this chart. Nearly two-thirds of home buyers last year purchased at a discount to the original listing price. the highest proportion since 2019. Good news?
Starting point is 00:52:46 Yes. Okay. Many home shoppers have given up, but 62% of buyers purchased below the original price last year, according to Redfin, and the average discount for the homes that sold below their original listing price was 8%, which is the largest since 2012. The prices are still too high.
Starting point is 00:53:04 This is trending in the right direction, but if you look at like average days on market, it's slow. It keeps going higher. because the prices are still too high. So yes, they're coming down. Yes, we're going the right direction, but like they're still too high.
Starting point is 00:53:16 But wait a minute. But wait a minute. People are, the average discount to listing is 8%. In 2022, people were paying like 10% above. Yeah. Ask.
Starting point is 00:53:29 Yeah. So it's a big difference. It might not have sunk in. It's better. And it might not be enough, but it's something. This is Bill McBride at calculated risk writing about rentals. So I'm reading about.
Starting point is 00:53:40 home prices and I'm curious what about the rental situation because that's been a really problematic thing for CPI and and the inflation story according to apartment list asking rent growth is down 1.4% year over year rents are down 0.2% month over month one and a half percent year over year it's not like catastrophic for the seller for the landlords and it's glacially slow but it's again it's in the right direction that's nationally so don't go in the chat and tell me about the block you live on. I'm sure it's, I'm sure it doesn't barely line up.
Starting point is 00:54:17 Give me this chart, though. This is a visual. This is month over month rent growth, which is now negative for, I don't know, is that six months? I feel like that's a positive development. The national multifamily vacancy rate is also higher,
Starting point is 00:54:38 7.3% apartment vacancy. That's a record high back to 2017. Do you want me to tell you what's causing that? I would love you too. Immigration.
Starting point is 00:54:49 Wow. That's who's filling the rest of the apartments. And we are deporting immigrants at a very high rate and keeping new immigrants from coming. And that's where that record high vacancy rate comes from. 29 consecutive months
Starting point is 00:55:05 of year-over-year decline in rents. is another stat worth talking about. The median asking rent across the 50 largest U.S. metro areas was $1,689, which is down 0.7% from December 20204. So slowly but surely, it's not a miracle drop for the housing affordability situation, but it is improving. Any thoughts? Good.
Starting point is 00:55:31 No, it's good. I think it's hard to quantify. the vast majority of the people in this nation that are upset, it's because they can't afford to live. And the biggest portion that is driving that is where they live. Just period. Like, that's it. It's rent.
Starting point is 00:55:53 It's house prices. It's a huge, huge national emergency. So I like that it's backing up a little bit. All right. Make the case. So because I'm a front runner, we're going to talk about energy. Energy is the best sector in the S&P 500, year-to-date, up 11.9% followed by materials, followed by staples. Do you know what all three of those sectors have in common? Energy materials and staples? You cannot replace what they sell with anthropic or chat GPT. If you need industrial chemicals, typing something into a computer is not going to help you. If you need a Hershey bar, there's no. no answer coming to you from perplexity.
Starting point is 00:56:37 And if you need a barrel of oil and you need to drive somewhere, unfortunately, you ain't getting anything from Open AI. I'm not saying that's the only reason. Those are the three leading sectors. I'm just saying pay attention when the market's speaking. This is a map from S&P Dow Jones Global through January. So it's just, it's a month.
Starting point is 00:57:02 But like, take a look. Pick a gander, energy all the way on the left. So it's the reverse mirror image of last year, where energy was, I think, the worst. Does that sound right? Or was that the year before? I think it was the year before. By the way, three months too. Not just one month, leading for three months as well.
Starting point is 00:57:22 Leading for three months. Put up the next one. This is industry group. Look at this. Best industry. Better than metals and mining. Believe it or not. Month to date.
Starting point is 00:57:32 Oil and gas. equipment, 20.74%, not oil and gas services, oil and gas equipment, like literally the pipes that they stick into, I don't know how it works. So it should not come as a surprise that we have a lot of these types of stocks on our best stocks in the market list, and I want to show you a few. I pitched X on on this show at about 118, the stock's down 144, has gone absolutely vertical, up 4% today. Chevron looks great too. The past earnings report, highest annual upstream production in over 40 years, record refinery throughput. Full year earnings,
Starting point is 00:58:17 $28.8 billion would be $30.1 billion, unless you exclude some small items. But a 20% Kager, back to 2019. These stocks were sitting there for a year. Look at this. chart years and years and years and nobody wanted them and then all of a sudden this is why technical analysis do you see what you see what went on here since the start of this year they're gonna higher in space but you had this retested the 50 and enacted as a springboard and this stuff never looked back so you have an all-time high uh in December right at the end of the year which is when we started talking about here on the show then it falls to start the year retest the 50 the double the buyers come in like hungry hippos it never looks back and then they beat earnings um raise guidance
Starting point is 00:59:10 and it's just off to the races we uh i pitched uh devon energy on tv today and i bought the stock also um natural gas and exploration company two and a half percent dividend yield uh the last time they reported earnings returned 400 million of shareholders between dividends and buybacks They retired half a billion dollars worth debt ahead of schedule, and they have shrunk their share count by 13% over the last five years. Here's a very, very simple situation, as Sean outlined for our readers at CNBC Pro, their break-even level to produce is 45 bucks, and WTI is 63. You don't really have to know a lot about business to understand
Starting point is 00:59:59 why the situation has changed. And I bring this stock up because it's been in a downtrend since 2022. So this is basically this is one of these stocks that nobody wanted, just like Exxon for years and years, just in this steady grind lower. And then one day it stopped going down. And then all of a sudden, the buyers were validated because the earnings started coming in stronger than expected.
Starting point is 01:00:24 So they're going to report in two weeks. I don't know what's in the report. I don't know how it'll be reacted. have to do. But I'm long the name with a stop loss. It's a trade. It's not a long-term investment. But higher lows on down days will be your tell that the trend is intact. Would be the way I think about it. A couple more. Here's Targa resources. This is pipeline. This pipeline. So this is not exploration. This is less to do with the price of natural gas. It's more about the demand. And anytime we get a really tough winter, obviously demand goes up. And the
Starting point is 01:00:59 pipeline and transmission companies do better. Only a 2% dividend yield here. It's not a great income play. It was an MLP. 10 years ago, they converted to a C-Corps, so no more K-1s. They're talking about 22% EBITDA growth for the coming quarter.
Starting point is 01:01:16 They report in two weeks as well. Put the chart back up. We wrote this up. It's very simple. Your 50 days is your trailing stop. That's about 183-ish. It's as plain as day. You don't want to be loaned the stock below there.
Starting point is 01:01:31 It doesn't mean you can't ever buy it again. It just means you have to wait for it to set back up again. That's a pretty well-defined risk reward. Sure is. Yeah, slightly overbought because the sector's in favor. RSI 73. All right, so you want to give it a minute, let it cool off. But these are the stocks people are going into as they sell Oracle.
Starting point is 01:01:51 I'm going to show you Granger. They sell tools and equipment. I don't really care. They returned a billion and a half dollars to sharehold. last year via dividends and share repurchases. I don't care because the only thing worth saying on this is AI doesn't replace shovels or whatever it is. So they reported today.
Starting point is 01:02:13 Stock had a huge rally up 6%. Is it a little bit overbought short term? Sure. But again, these are the stocks that are in favor this year. Dude, this is why the market is so much fun. Imagine 12 months ago we're like, okay, in a year we're going to be talking about the fact that people want anything but AI stocks. We were complaining about it.
Starting point is 01:02:32 Yeah. We were yelling about it. It was boring. It was boring. It was like there was nothing else to talk about. Last one. Wait till I tell you this one. Cortiva.
Starting point is 01:02:42 CTVA. If memory serves me, this was spun out of a big chemical company. Or maybe Monsanto. This might be the spun out seed business of Monsanto. Anyway, here's the deal. This is like half pestle. decide half seeds. So it's an agriculture play. They just raised their, their guides. They're talking about 6% growth for 2026. So it's not like explosive growth. It's seeds.
Starting point is 01:03:13 Oh, they're a shower. You know I'm a seed investor. I like it. Enough said. chart back on. They took out the 200 day moving average around 68 and it never looked back. And so where's the next breakout? Look at it. Look at the chart at 75, above 75 on good volume. Are there any sellers left? Probably not. In the best stocks to market list, Michael, I have 13 total energy tickers. Baker Hughes, Conical Phillips, Chevron, Devon Energy, Fang, Hal, KMI, P-MI, PSX, SLB, Targa, which we just did. Valero, which we've talked about a million times.
Starting point is 01:03:52 Williams, Exxon Mobil, which we just talked about. I'm not saying, like, flip the whole book into energy. I'm just saying like if you're f***ing around with atlasian right now like I that's not what's that's not what's popping in the streets so anyway that's why make the case what do you think
Starting point is 01:04:10 I love it well done really good good stuff okay are you buying cortifa it's just math Josh I am not ready to reveal it yet I'm not buying individual names right now I'm not about that life I'm letting I'm letting the work do the work for me
Starting point is 01:04:25 okay I've got a mystery chart not saying shit Jesus. This huge decline at the end of 22 tells me it's like it was a pandemic darling that broke. I don't know. Doc he signed? We spoke about it today. Oh, we did?
Starting point is 01:04:48 Yeah. Did I say nice things about it? Oh, it's PayPal? Yeah, there you go. All right. Well, I got a little assist from the chat. To be honest, the chat. She said, uh, Michael Marist gave me PayPal J. Minter.
Starting point is 01:05:08 Biff Gweebles gave me PayPal. Oh, a lot of people. Yeah. Thank you guys. That's my secret weapon. Love you, chat. This whole time? This whole time.
Starting point is 01:05:16 Put the chart back up. This is now on my list of the worst stocks I've ever met. Do you know I have that list? I informally keep. Do you know that? No, I love it though. We should talk more about it. The worst stocks I've ever met.
Starting point is 01:05:29 So it can't just be like, Oh, here's a stock that went to zero. It has to be a stock that I have become acquainted with over the years. Do you understand? This is one of the worst stocks I've ever met. Like, easily top 20, and I'm doing this for 30 years. It is so bad. Just bad for so many reasons, but we don't have time today.
Starting point is 01:05:50 All right, guys, that's it. Animal Spirits tomorrow morning with Michael and Ben. All new Ask the Compound later that day on Friday. we have another edition of the compound and friends with a new friend. Someone we've never talked to before. Super excited about it. And we appreciate everybody who joined us for the live once again. Shout out to the chat.
Starting point is 01:06:12 Thanks to everyone for listening. We'll talk to you soon. Ridholt's wealth management is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Ritthold's wealth management and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. Nothing on this podcast should be construed as and may not be used in connection with an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy or hold an interest in any security or investment product. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk and possible loss
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