The Compound and Friends - Software vs Semis, Trump Accounts for Babies, Sell-Side Indicator

Episode Date: January 6, 2026

On this TCAF Tuesday, hear an all-new episode of What Are Your Thoughts with ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Downtown Josh Brown⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Michael Batnick⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠! This episode is sponsored by Public. Find out more at https://public.com/WAYT Sign up for ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Compound Newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and never miss out! Instagram: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://instagram.com/thecompoundnews⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/thecompoundnews⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-compound-media/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ TikTok: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.tiktok.com/@thecompoundnews⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Public Disclosure: Paid endorsement. Brokerage services provided by Open to the Public Investing Inc, member FINRA & SIPC. Investing involves risk. Not investment advice. Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool by Public Advisors. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. See disclosures at http://public.com/disclosures/ga. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and investment values may rise or fall. See terms of match program at https://public.com/disclosures/matchprogram. Matched funds must remain in your account for at least 5 years. Match rate and other terms are subject to change at any time. Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Josh Brown are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. The Compound Media, Incorporated, an affiliate of ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Ritholtz Wealth Management⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information. Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/⁠⁠⁠⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the compound and friends. Tonight's show is an all-new edition, first one of the year of what are your thoughts with Michael Batnik and I, and we got directly into it. Software stocks versus semi-stocks for this year. Savita Supremanian sell side indicator. We took a look at some of the big stuff that was announced by Nvidia and Amazon at the Consumer Electronics show yesterday, did a little bit of a level set on the AI trade with some really great charts and my recipe for fighting communism in the year

2006. We looked at the Trump accounts, which are going to include a federal seed contribution of $1,000 into a stock market account for every baby born between now and December 31st, 2008. I love this idea. and I want to see it continue to take root and take flight, and we'll get into that as well. So thank you guys so much for listening. We're sponsored by public tonight.

More on public in just a moment. I'll send you into the show right now. Welcome to The Compound and Friends. All opinions expressed by Josh Brown, Michael Batnick, and their castmates are solely their own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of Ridholt's wealth management. This podcast is for Infantown. informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions.

Clients of Ridholt's wealth management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. Oh my God, it's what are your thoughts? Michael, can you believe it? I really can't. Starting all over again, 2006, first show of the year, like nothing ever happened. We are back. The energy in the chat is palpable. You can, uh, you could feel it through the screen. Can you not?

I sure do, Josh. I feel good. I feel real good. Yeah. You look way better than the last time I saw you. Hey, let's, uh, let's do some shoutouts, shall we? Um, we have a full house, I'm told. Somebody named Seth Hansen made a famous, a funny joke.

We were 400 comments in on the live chat, and he goes first, which I appreciate. That's my brand of smart assery. I appreciate it. All right, Akbar Muhammad is here. Brian Lichter. Rachel is back. Josh 681. David Graham, Sodak, Jason.

Let's see, who else? Magnus is back. Oliver Ruff. Charisma Spigot. He says he is, Charisma Spigot is palping. I'm palping. Brian Lictor. I haven't heard that name.

the while. What's up, dude? I know. I know. That's a blast in the past. All right. Suzanne Newman is here. Jamie Newsom. Vanessa, Arson says, hey, boys. Hey, back, Vanessa. Let's have some fun tonight, guys. First things first. We have a sponsor. I'd like to give a shout out to one of the greatest sponsors of all time, maybe the greatest, some say. Public.com and the public trading app is the investing platform for those who take it seriously. That's right, Josh. On public, you can build a multi-asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto. And now, the big reveal, generated assets.

What am I talking about? I'll tell you. This allows you to turn any idea into your own investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt from renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% a year. You can literally type any prompt, any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, built a one-up-kind index, and lets you back-tested against the S&P. Unbelievable.

Then just a few clicks, boom, you're invested. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com slash W-A-Y-T and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public. W-A-Y-T, paid for by public investing. Full disclosure in podcast description. All right. What a read.

It's like we finish each other sentences. You really are back. It's incredible. I think you're up first. What do we got? That's right, Josh. So I don't know the last. I'm sure it's happened before where a take of mine has aged so sour, so fast.

on Friday morning as I was about to just throw in the towel and hop off the mic with you and Ben I said I got to get one more take in and my take was this I think this is the year where we realize that AI is not going to replace software companies like Adobe and Salesforce but it's going to actually enhance what they do and then the market said oh yeah asshole watch this so on Friday on Friday oh wait It was Friday. Chart on. Chart on, please.

So the semiconductor index was up 4.2%. Yeah. The software ETF felt 3%. A spread of, holy shit, is that a record? Next chart. Yeah, it is. Dumbass. An absolute record.

Never in the history of these two indies, indexes, whatever, which goes back 25 years, has the spread been 7%. Like really, really. really something else that you know what that is that's like god throwing a thunderbolt at you yeah i mean it's yeah keep talking moron chart back on now it's it's one day but it's a it's really bad it's comedy because you said it on friday morning it's it's so good and that's where the market closed okay next chart josh i didn't realize so all right what strikes you about this i want you to go first this is semis versus software yeah and what just stop performance like the index versus the index

yeah i don't need to keep you guessing i'll just say this i didn't remember or realize the degree to which software i'm sorry semis got the shit beat out of them relative to software from 2024 to like that that's a massive spread and now yeah that's liberation day so chart off please for a sec So during that time period, tariffs, obviously, semis were in the, were the epicenter, not the epicenter, but semis were going to be hard hit, right, if all those tariffs were placed. So soft with like the sales force and all, and Intuit and Apploff and met, like all those names were hit, but not nearly to the degree. So that round trip that we had is wild. And let me go out on the limb and say something that might age even worse. Actually, nothing is going to age worse than my Friday comment.

Like nothing, chart back on. I think this might be a blow off top. And I hate to like say something so outlandish. And I'm not a trend fighter. But I think we might have got a blow off top in this. So let me ask you a question, though. Because there's two versions of how that would play out. In one version, all of a sudden, software stocks start to rally and outperform.

And semis are like just okay. In another version, this happens because semi-stocks crash. and software stocks weren't up as much, so they just sort of like meander listlessly. Wait, say that one more time? This could work, this could work two ways. It could be, you could get that mean reversion between those two sectors, software versus semis. You can get it because software stocks are great or you can get it because semis crash.

Okay. So I think it's going to be something in the middle. I don't think that, listen, I'm not calling for crash. That's like a good. You're getting ratioed into the Stone Age already. Good. Good. Okay. That's not what I do.

But like some of the charts that we see today in memory land, in semiland are straight up and some wild shit. All right. Anyhow. So we'll see where this ends of the year. So I got one for you. Dawson says, blow off top and a ratio chart is a new one. No, it's not. No, it's not.

That can happen. That can happen. Listen, I've been here about blow off tops and ratios since I met J.C. in two. 2012. That's not, I didn't make that up. Well, I suppose it's possible. I wouldn't say like it can happen. But is that like the bet, is that the bet you want to make? I'm, that's not, uh, no. For stocks would you use to express the trade? Do you know what's an IGV? I do. Um, I will say this. That is a high degree of difficulty trade, okay? And there are no points for complexity.

So no, it's not the bet that I want to make. Um, IGV, ETF. ETF. Let's see the holdings. It's not soft. I'm going to upset some people, but it's not a, it's actually a very bad software index. Whatever. It's Microsoft Palantir, Salesforce, Oracle, Intuit, Apple, Love, and Adobe, Palo Alto, service now, crowd strike.

Those are the top 10 names. Right. Now, Oracle's building data centers. Microsoft is the biggest data center other than AWS. Like, Palantir is more like a consulting company that has a software arm. Like, all I'm saying, all I'm saying is, it's not like a well-composed index, whereas the top 10 semi-index, those companies are making chips. Find a perfect set, find a perfect software index.

Now, you could do it on, on, on public. Generated assets. It'll look the same, dude. It doesn't matter. You're picking this. It'll look the same. This is, this is interesting. Next chart.

I didn't realize the degree to which. not just these stocks move together, but like the market caps of Adobe and Salesforce were like identical. I mean, it doesn't really get closer than that until the hard recent break. Isn't this interesting? Yeah. This market cap.

I'm looking dumb in Adobe already. I think I'm down 15 sticks. And they're just, you know, it could be one of these things where the second half of the year is an about face from the first half. Like, we could spend the whole first half selling off these enterprise class software stocks with the exception of cyber, which I think are not involved in that. But any software company that's selling workflow automation or like I'm thinking about the really great companies, like the work days, the service nows, the Mondays, the, who else is on this list? Like, dude, now is getting pummeled.

Everybody raves about this company. It's a great company. So my point is this could go on for another two quarters, just people saying, of course it could. Get me out. I think these guys are dead. Or guess what? Their narrative could change on a dime. And I respect the trend.

Okay. So until proven otherwise, of course these names are guilty. And you should assume that the trend persists, always. Yeah. But I'm just saying that narratives change quickly. they do no we've seen we've seen it and that's why i'm a price person first and then i try to figure out what's the narrative that's making the price do what the price is doing a lot of people are vice versa they decide this is the story and the market's not cooperating but i will be right the

market will be wrong and i'm not saying one i'm not saying one is necessarily always better than the other i mean yes it is dude usually the market is right and we're wrong You're wrong. No, no, no, no. No, obviously, but there is a universe where the market takes things too far, and the contrarian that has a better grasp of the fundamental story steps in and says, this has gone far enough. And alphabet and Apple last year are two perfect examples of that. Yeah, I'm not a major contrarian, but I do think that this ratio is getting a little stretch.

Not a little stretched. It's getting stretched. It is stretched. Our friend of the, I don't, we call it a friend of the show. We haven't even had her on this guest. She's never been on the show. Yeah, no, we love her shit, but. Yeah, no, I know her personally. Like, we hang out.

Savita, Supermanian's famed cell side indicator. Savita started the year off throwing a bombshell into the crowd, saying, finally, after 15 years, it's getting very close to flashing a cell signal. And the cell side indicator, just to give people, I'll get a little bit deeper into it, she created. this as a contrarian indicator for when her colleagues in sort of top-down sell-side strategy calls were like two bulled up on stocks. So she was always looking at this as a contrarian, a bullish indicator because the strategists were so bearish in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, the strategist had such low expectations. for the stock market so her indicator was a great contrarian signal and it's taken a long time

and up year after up year after and now it's completely gone the other way let's put this chart up okay so the very simple way to explain the very simple way to explain this is she is capturing the buy and sell signal she is generating a buy and sell signal based on rolling 15 year uh plus or minus one their deviation from the rolling 15-year mean. So it's a very long signal that she's figuring out. And she's just basically looking at the percentage of equity that strategists are recommending. Do I have, am I explaining that? How bad of a job am I doing it at saying what?

I only laugh because rolling 15 years are so hilarious input. I've never heard that before. But no, that tracks. The sales, all right, this is Savita in her own words. Contrarian sentiment signal that tracks sell side strategist, average recommended allocation to equities in a balanced fund. The indicator was unchanged at 55.9% in December after rising the prior two months. Despite strong equity returns this year, the SSI fell 1.1 percentage point overall.

The indicator declined two and a half percent percentage points from January to April, and has yet to fully recover since then. Declining equity allocations were offset by a move into cash and commodities. but now we're less than two percentage points away from a cell signal. Savita says this has been a reliable contrarian indicator. It has been bullish when Wall Street was extremely bearish and vice versa. The indicator remains in neutral territory but is much closer to a cell than a buy. Although the SSI is more bullish than bearish, its current level of 56% is still below levels reached in prior market peaks.

So we still have time. There's nothing here. I'm sorry. This is not, this is, this is literally noise. Because it's not an extreme yet, but directionally, that's what, okay, for two things. Number one, I don't love to, I know it's very popular to fade euphoria. This is, this is not even close to euphoria. No.

I think that contrarian signals always work better in bear markets. Like we know this, right? It's a lot easier to say, okay, everybody's gotten way too bears and way too bullish. number one, number two, this is in the range. I mean, there's not even, there's nothing going on. It's unchanged month over month. There's nothing here. I think, um, I think she sees it threatening that downtrend.

Stop it. Stop it. All right. Last thing. According to Bloomberg's monthly survey, the average strategist expects the S&P 500 to rise 10% this year, slightly below strategy's expectation of 12% price return in 2025 at this time last year. If the S&P achieves this forecast, the index is total return since the end of 22 would exceed 100%.

The best four-year gain since 1999. Savita goes on to say that her 2026 price target is only 7,100, which is 4% higher from here. She's at the low end of strategist forecasts. Why? Growing capital intensity of big tech spenders that make up an outsized share of the index, elevated multiples, cracks in the labor market, downside link to AI upside, and this argues for a more clushist stance. What do you thoughts?

I hope she's right. Not a popular opinion. I would sign up right now for a 4% return for the year. Like, I would prefer that than a – I don't want a 27% return. Like, that sets up first. We know how that ends, right? If you go up another 15, 20th, like, that sets up for a fall. If we can build the wall of worry, consolidate some of the gains, go sideways, gain 4%.

I'd sign up for that today. No problems. No questions asked. The street's expectation for earnings growth this year is close to 15%. You'd sign up for a 4% return on that. So basically a year of better than average earnings growth but multiple contraction, what would be designed that? No, no, no, no.

I would not love that. I just said I'd sign up for that right now. Just stop it, stop it. I didn't say with 15% earnings growth. If we have 15% earnings growth. Well, that's what we're going to have. Can I fucking finish? If we have 15% earnings growth and severe multiple contraction, that would be weird.

Something would have to happen in order for that to happen. So I think- You said the 15% after I said 4%. Okay. I'm saying that would be weird. There would be some bad news. If I could get not that, just a 4%, 7%, I take that. 4%.15, that's weird.

Okay. At At Atatatronix says a 4% return. What is that? A return for ants? Yes. Yeah. It is. We don't need 17% a year every single year.

All right. Chart on. Can you show you two more from Savita? On the left is bond allocations declining this year. now at the lowest level since 2022. Is there anything here? Yes. Yeah, that looks like excessive risk taking.

That looks, right. That looks like an all out of bonds. And I think I saw a vanguard. But wait, but dude, but dude, but dude, there's a cash component in here. Sure, of course. However, cash is not yielding nearly as much as it had been a year ago. But I'm just like, if you put cash and bonds allocation, that would look much different. I'm going to, well, I'm going to do cash next.

That's in the right pane. I think I saw Vanguard say the right allocation for this year is 40-60. Did you see that? I did see something like that. What that what is that about? Yeah, what's their problem? Chart on the right is cash allocations increased this year but remain low versus history. So again, again, a very high equity allocation recommendation from strategists for a balanced

portfolio, the lowest allocations to bonds. since 22. But it's like a recommendation and it's noisy. Put the chart back on. Yeah. Right? Like if you would overlay and do some quantity stuff, is there any signaling here? I don't know.

It doesn't seem like extreme. And even so what? Look at 17 and 18. That was really low. What did that mean? Yeah. I guess on the cash, it's like one of the things that like you can't really say like cash on the sideline.

Like in, all right. So what's my point? Chart back on last time on the right pane. Like in 2016, I don't know if you remember how we went into the year. People were absolutely terrified of Trump being elected and Brexit. Both of those things happened. But look at the cash allocations. They were like 7%.

And a thing that a strategist could have said was, yeah, people are really cautious. Look at the degree of cash allocation. Like, we don't have that thing to say right now. What do you mean? On the left side is average recommended allocation to cash allocation. by Wall Street strategists. And 16, it doesn't look like seven. What does it look like to you?

Going into 16, it looks like precisely seven. I mean, I didn't draw a line across, but all right, I guess here's my takeaway. Tell me what you think. We have now reached the point in this bull market where pretty much, even if their price targets only slightly higher than where the S&P is, the strategists are in. There's no holdouts. Is there anybody who's bearish Is Savita the most bearish?

She's at the lower She says that she She says that they are at the lower end Of the field But nobody's negative We did this, I think we did this last week Nobody's negative So I mean

We're at the, it's not a bad thing But like it's a thing that you have to say Is like the dry powder is dwindling From people that are non-believers Everybody is so weird. Okay. Yes. And I was talking with Ben today.

Todd had a chart. Todd Stone had a chart that showed like beyond record inflows into ETFs in December. Yeah. Like there's just, there's infinite money. We are getting some help from the chat. Brian Westbury is the most bearish. But Brian, you know. See Paul Breezy.

Barry Bannister is the most bearish. Where does, we're getting, we're getting some. Where is Bannister do research from these days? The Avengers. At Relamid is saying Vanguard basically said bonds will be a better bet than U.S. Large Cap stocks. Okay. I didn't see the piece.

I got to go look at it. All right. You're up. Okay. I've got some charts, Josh. Sam Rowe, friend of the show, did a post yesterday that I grabbed some charts, some 27 charts. some 27 charts for 26 or maybe it's 26 or 26. Who knows? Okay, we spent a lot of time. We do spend a lot of time talking about how quickly the hyperscalers are adding debt to their balance

sheets and off balance sheet. There's like, this is different. This is a different part of the cycle. Debt has entered the room. Okay. Actually, this is pretty interesting. Net debt to EBIDA for the S&P and S&PX financials. And like kind of really not a lot here to Hem and Hall about it. Interesting now. If you started this chart not in 1997, but like 10 years ago, it would probably be more dramatic. It's not a, either way, it's not a huge number.

This surprised me. I would have thought that it would be more up into the right. Okay, here's another one. Here's another one from Sembalist. despite the recent rise in CAPEX, the amount financed by debt was still very low. So if you're listening, this is a chart with two lines. One is CAPEX to sales, which as we know is going up until the right. But look at that.

The yellow line shows the share of CAPEX and dividends that are financed with debt. I mean, that's like shockingly low in a good way. I would have thought it would have thought it would be more, like I would have thought there would be more debt spending, but I, I don't know, I guess, I guess it's just not necessary yet for, for most, put that back up, who are the companies in this group? This is the, this is the, this is the Russell 3000, so finance with, finance with debt rather than internally generated cash flow. No, it's Russell 3,000 tech and communications companies.

Okay, I'm not bad. Okay, so even, even more striking then, wow, even more striking because these are the companies that are spent that are taking out debt but the point is that they're they're still they're he's trying to show you now versus the the late 90s that's the point that he's that's the point that that's the point that that's the point that he's making here with this window i'm such an idiot i didn't even look to the left the point that he's showing you the late 90s early 2000s versus now okay to draw this distinction but i think the takeaway is the blue line cap x to sales if we're really going to have an all-out bubble

that that can go much higher like I mean it has historically you like we ain't seen nothing yet if we're going to do 1999 and I don't know that we are but like that's I think that's the I think that's the point that he's trying to illustrate is that we're not there yet so S&P 500's revenue per worker I don't know that I realize this in fact I'm going to say I didn't realize this went nowhere despite the cloud revolution despite like a lot of the automation it went sideways and real basis for I don't know 20 years and only now only in the past few years is it really busting up into the right pretty remarkable um we're going to get to this later in the show okay it's part of it's part of the problem this is part of the problem one more time this is

revenue per worker record highs holy shit great for the stock market I mean obviously this is I'm sorry real revenue per worker This is 21 cent. Is that in, what is that, what is that scale? What's the, what is the Y axis? So it's revenue per one cent. Oh, uh, per million, per million, 1986. Mike, micro units.

I don't know. All right. One more for Michael. Actually, we got a few more from Michael. This, this, this chart shows that the stock market makes sense. we're looking at the consensus the consensus forward return on equity for various sectors and then the chart on the right adds a couple of stocks in there and versus the consensus forward price to book and what he you know what he's right what he's saying is we are giving

the highest price we're giving the highest multiple he's doing price to book rather than price to earnings but i doubt it's much different um it probably just illustrates it better to the best businesses the best that right the companies with the highest margins the best return on equity are also the ones being most highly valued and it's and it's happening monotonically it is yeah so it's right what he called it in his piece was the internal logic of valuation in the market right yeah and i think that's a fine fair point better hope there's no uh better I hope there's no mean reversion to margins after all because those are the stocks that are up the most and they'll come down the most.

But yes. All right. Two more and then we'll get out of here. I thought this was fascinating. We're looking at the peg ratio and that normalizes for growth, which of course is a very important driver of returns and valuations and all that good stuff. So the peg ratio for the all world equity index, that's the blue line versus the MSCI all-world tech index.

And yeah, it's, it's, the spread ain't there. It's, it's justified. Right. The peg is price to earnings growth. So they're taking year two forward earnings per share growth. And they're saying stocks, if you correct, not correct, if you adjust for what their actual growth is, the tech world is in line with the rest of the, the world's equity index. And, yeah, these are.

all mitigating factors that if you just look at these things in a vacuum and you say, it's up how much or it's being valued at what? Okay, but what is return on equity? What is the growth rate? Like, you need more. You need more information. The market is not just randomly assigning valuations to stocks for no reason. Okay.

Lastly, so today we had, we had Dow 49,000 all-time high, right? The S&P closed in an all-time high today. Yes, it did. Man, that's a beautiful site. IWM, I believe, or not quite, but RSP, the equal weight, yeah. So it's all happening, Josh. So this last, and we're doing it without a lot of the nonsense. Now, you could always find nonsense, okay.

But this specific nonsense, chart on. Sandisk up 25% today. Yeah, no, there's nonsense. There's some shit going on. Yeah, but not this nonsense. So what we're looking at is the market cap of young, unprofitable tech stocks. And we remember, we all remember this. surged in 2020, 2020, 2021 to a peak of about 5%.

And it's now, I don't know, one and a half percent, one in three quarters, whatever it is. Michael also has a chart showing the spending by young, unprofitable tech stocks. Like, this is not, this is not, not, not what's supporting the market. And I know that there's, you know, speculation and whatever, the irons and aquas and whatever, whatever. But like, that's not what's driving. That's not leading the market. It's just not, that's very healthy.

did a show last year where we were, I think the thing that we explained really well is the presence of a circus does not, is not indicative of the idea that the entire market is a circus. Correct. Like you could, or you could have a three ring circus and you can have a fairly tame lion or elephant act in one ring, which is expected. And then in the ring next door, you could have literally people setting themselves on fire. yes but it's the the big show is not like um always represented by the craziest thing that you

can find happening thing is is the way that i would put that um all right uh i guess they're being called trump accounts now so and and it's fine i don't care um we we have obamacare we have trump accounts all good uh brad gersner friend of mine brad gersner came to of Future Proof, I think in year two, so that would have been 2023. And on Sunday night, the opening night of the show, he got on stage, he had to run back to the All In podcast event, which was happening at the same time. But he came on stage at Future Proof and he announced this thing that he was getting political support for.

And I called the jokingly baby equity. But the idea was that every time a baby was. born, the country would put $1,000 into an account that would be automatically invested in the index fund in the stock market, and that parents could actively contribute to that account. So like the same logic as an IRA, but rather than having people start when they're working age, we do it for them when they're born. And the general idea is we have too many people who are not feeling the benefit of the growth of the stock market and the equity value of American business.

And I loved it. And that's why I brought him on. I let him do his thing. He ended up, I guess via the all-in guys who became very closely aligned with Trump. He ended up getting this to the point where Democrats loved it and Republicans loved it. And they were able to do it. And it became signed into law because they wedged it into the big beautiful bill. So it wasn't its own standalone thing,

but it's a provision of the bill that was signed this summer. And it's taking effect. You can open an account now. The funding starts in July. Okay? And I think it's a really big deal. Not that it'll have an effect on the market right away, but I think it's like really important.

It addresses arguably the biggest societal problem we have right. now in this country. So let me just read this to you and get your reaction. Created under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act that give children born between January 1st, 2025, so that's now, and December 31st, 2028, a $1,000 federal seed contribution and allow parents, relatives, employers, and others to contribute up to $5,000 per year on the child's behalf with earnings growing tax deferred until the child's child's. reaches adulthood. Because the program applies to almost all U.S. children born during that

period, tens of millions of accounts are expected to be open over the next few years as eligible families enroll before the accounts become available for funding in mid-2020. And now you've got this other thing happening. Maybe it's virtue signaling or maybe it's genuine like out of the goodness of their hearts, but you have a lot of people like Michael Dell and Ray Dalio kind of jumping on this and being like, here's a billion dollars. Like they want to, Schwab's organization. Right. So I like it.

I love the, I love the momentum of this that people want to be associated with this. It's like it, it basically has no enemies. Nobody's for any reason against this. Last thing here. During the growth period, this is according to a notice from the Treasury, contributions can only come from five sources. The $1,000 federal pilot payment, that's the government seating it. Two, qualified general contributions by states, nonprofits, or tribal governments for defined groups of children. Three, employer contributions, up to $2,500 per. year under new section 128 of the IRS code, which is called Trump account contribution

programs. We should do this for Redhall's wealth babies. Oh, we got a lot, we got a lot of babies being born. Hold your horses. Four, rollovers from a previous Trump account. That's interesting. Or five voluntary contributions by parents up to five grand per year indexed for inflation after 2027, Bloomberg wrote about this.

Black Rock said they will match government contributions to Trump accounts for their employees, making it one of the first major U.S. companies to lay out plans for supporting early childhood savings program. So I guess if you work at BlackRock and you put $5,000 into one of these accounts, maybe they'll match it up to a certain amount. That's kind of cool, right? We should do it. You want to do it?

Yeah. Are we going to all of a sudden? like be encouraging too many babies, though? I love this so much. It's like, it's all good. There's nothing bad about it. I love, I love the spirit of it. I love that it's happening.

I think it's wonderful. I love the phomo that it's creating to give more. I just think it's all good. Michael Dell and Susan Dell will give $25 million American children $250 each. It's amazing. Jumpstart and investment account for their futures. That's $6.25 billion. It's unbelievable.

Del is the man. Unbelievable. Ray Dalio is going to do this in Connecticut, Bank of New York Mellon, Charles Schwab. So it's, I think it's, all right. So this is what I actually really wanted to say. We have a problem in this country

with communism and Marxism. And we have this generation of young people who were born after the Berlin Wall fell in 89. They don't really understand why Cuba looks like the dark side of the, the moon compared to the rest of the Western Hemisphere. They don't understand all of the, the fact that Mao Zedong killed more people than Hitler and Stalin combined.

They just don't understand that collectivism is not a solution to anything. And it's certainly not going to solve their problems. And they're chanting slogans and they're watching nonsense on TikTok. And many of them come from middle class households. They've been indoctrinated by this combination of. social media that is deliberately designed to mislead and tear our country apart. They've got a Marxist-leaning professors at some of the top schools in the country. And they're just learning bullshit.

And it's fine. Like, some of them will grow out of it and some of them will have horrible lives. But, like, it's a serious problem. And we've got cities in this country that are electing people. It's amazing. you look at the background of some of these people. They're well educated. They're not stupid.

They just have terrible ideas. And unfortunately, there's like this groundswell of support for these ideas from young people. I understand why. It is really, really hard to come from nothing and make something of yourself and do so without your parents' help. And even if you have your parents' help, it's almost like humiliating to be in your 20s and see no end in sight to the. the credit card debt and the endless costs of living in a place like Seattle or New York City and trying to live, trying to live a lifestyle that's like congruent with the childhood

you grew up in. It's a huge problem. One of the big reasons for this is that people who are stock market Americans are able to spend an unlimited amount and that crowds these people out. And I think that this is a better way to fight communism than on social media. Like, I think bringing people who are not currently in this system and creating more stock market Americans from birth, and it'll take a while before we see the results of this, I genuinely think that that's a better way to fight off this trend of young people embracing socialism. And, you know, people don't know the history here in the 1950s we had something called the red scare and you've probably heard of McCarthyism they probably forced you to study this in high school but it was basically

a witch hunt they were trying to root out people with communist or socialist or Marxist leanings they went after a lot of the Hollywood screenwriters and directors and actors and they blackball people yeah absolutely so um and it and one of the most interesting externalities of the the fight, the red scare, the fight against the red scare. The term Pinko comes from that, by the way, in case you were sure with that. Right. So that would be a thing that they would call a socialist, a Pinko. One of the interesting things is they invented the suburbs.

So people born today, they don't understand, like if you're born into the suburbs, that suburb probably did not exist prior to the 1950s and most of it were built in the 60s and 70s. They built the interstate highway system. in order so that they could get working class people out of the city to live on property that they themselves owned because they looked at Europe and they looked at the working class people in cities all over Europe becoming socialist, becoming Marxist, and they said, we got a real problem here.

They literally invented the suburbs in order to fight that. The prevailing theory was if somebody owns property, it's very hard for them to become a Marxist. it's very hard to become a communist if you your cell phone property and it worked and we created the most successful economy in the history of the world ballrooms malls dude it's like they basically emptied the cities of working class people and they put everybody in houses uh levitown by us was like one of the first examples of this built by william levitt this is an actual quote from William Levitt. No one who owns his own house and lot can be a communist. He has too much to do. So this was like the Eisenhower era, build the highways, make it so people can commute to work,

commute home. They built commuter trains. They built roads. They built the malls. This is where Sears comes from. This is Kmart. This is McDonald's. You needed roadside hamburger stands for people who were constantly traveling back and forth. The way to fight communism is, not being a dick on Twitter to people who are struggling. The way to fight communism is this big idea that Brad Gersner had and that now the Trump administration has embraced. It's let's make more stock market Americans. The best way we know how, literally here, now you're invested. On Apple. You still want to have fucking blue hair and walk around the streets with a sign or you want to do something with your life, right? So that's, so I like this better than

culture war. It's like, look, here you go. You're part of this now. You got a small piece. Your parents can contribute. Philanthropists can contribute. Corporations can contribute. But like you're in the game now. You're going to be part of the investor class. You're not going to be part of the sign carrying class. So I feel that this is a really positive thing that we're doing. You could love this and still hate Trump. I give you permission. I give you permission. what are your thoughts on this whole on this whole concept i have nothing to add really i thought you've said it beautifully and i cannot be in more agreement i think this is if you don't like this you really need to have your head examined this is all good yeah uh i haven't been inspired

by a piece of legislation the way that this thing is like captured my imagination in a long time and i'm just i'm just picturing millions of kids with half a million dollars when they turn 21 like i mean with the cape ratio at 40 now i'm not half a million dollars may not be that much money in 21 years but it maybe it'll be like 50 grand or 80 grand now it's not zero it's great it's great you don't you don't grow up you don't grow up to be a loser automatically just because your parents weren't rich we have a huge problem right now we have people who are growing up with no assistance whatsoever from the prior generation and they cannot keep their heads above water.

And it's creating all sorts of crazy political shit. And I love anything that seeks to counter that. Me too. It's wonderful. Okay, well done, Josh. Let's move on to what I think is a very, very interesting potential development in this here stock market. First chart, please, John. So I had Sean look back.

going back to the last last week of December 24 kind of amazing that 2025 was going to be the year of AI and continued tech growth and the max 7 did all right

I mean more than all right but it didn't beat the market since this time period yeah because as much money as they made they're also now you can't call any of these companies asset light anymore no they're just they're not the same stocks

that they once were. So more interestingly, we've got a ratio of the Mag 7 relative to the 493. And what do you see, Josh? Because I sure see a potential breakdown. Now, I'm not, you know, who knows? Maybe this is an oops, as J.C. likes to say.

But you got to be, you got to put this on your watch list. And this is like controlling for the overall market. Like this is one versus the other. Yeah, dude, it's one versus the other. There's no overlap here. It's literally the seven versus the $4.993. And, okay, check this shit out. Chartgoat, the legend that he is.

This is a bit confusing. So stay with me. So the light blue line, that's pure risk on, okay? That is the equal weight discretionary, which we've used a million times versus the equal weight staples. And like everything else, it's going up until the right, breaking out to new all-time highs. And this pretty much has tracked the ratio of the mag seven strength. Like, it's risk on. This is a risk on chart.

And this right here divergence is very interesting. Wait. I'm a tiny bit confused. So the light blue were. So is the point to say that discretionary and mag seven are like one half of the the growth part of the market and then equally staples and S&P 493 or another? The point is this. The point is a chart off, please.

Let me explain this. The point is that the Mag 7 might be passing the baton to the 493. Like, it might actually be happening because the light blue line, I could have used or I could have used SP, I could have used high beta divided by low vall, or I could have, whatever. Use Staples as a proxy for the defensive part of the market. For risk on. The point is we are in a risk on market. The Dow is at an all-time high.

Microcaps rocking. Like, everything is working. And yet you've got to break down in what, in previous leadership. Normally, when the market was rocking and risk was on, it was being led by the Mac 7. That's the point. And now it's not. You don't give yourself enough credit because this is one of the things that you spent a lot of last year talking about is like there has to eventually be this transference of the benefits of AI from the companies that sell it to the companies that use it. Right.

Now, the only hitch in that story. Is that I told you the S&P is supposed to grow earnings by 14.6% for this coming year. Guess how much the tech sector, just tech, not communications or anything that other shit. Guess how much tech is supposed to grow earnings in 26th, according to consensus? 18? 29%. Yeah. Yeah.

But as much as I would love to see that breakdown, it's not going to be because of earnings. but if we do see like so this is the type of 15% 20% gain that I would sign up for in two seconds if it happens because of the 493 which have not done amazing over the last couple of years if they start to go and it's a new bull market like then it's game on let's go you know what I mean I was just talking to somebody that said what happened last year who was I talking to the most interesting thing that happened last year is that we had um multiple contraction in uh in large cap tech. They had the opposite in every market around the world. They had some earnings growth, but like there are countries in Europe and Asia that were up 35, 40 percent. They didn't have

earnings growth like that. So we had like the mother of all re-ratings for international stocks. Oh, yeah. And here we had the mother of all earnings growth years with an actual de-rating for the company's driving it. Isn't that interesting? So that's what this is show. basically. We've had no, the forward P.E. has gone sideways for the last three years. So, like, you just, I'm sorry, you just got to reject the bubble talk. Like, there's no bubble. This is not a bubble. This is not the behavior of a bubble. It just isn't. I wish it would. It just isn't. I wish it would be a bubble. I'll retire. Lastly. Do it. Give me a two year bubble. You'll never see me again. It's not. Speaking about the rest of the market.

So this is, this is from, I pulled these two charts from Daily Chartbook, who does great work. Okay. The blue line is non-tech, non-tech, non-AI companies that have mentioned specific plans to implement AI into their workflows leading to lower costs and higher margins. This is from Goldman. Earnings for this group has already started to diverge since the third quarter of 2024. And this is, man, this is the whole king-coodle. Like this is it. What's in here? What's in here? what's in this right that I yeah I don't know

like like you're in Caterpillar and McDonald's and Marriott if you're listening actually you know Goldman what's in that basket

so these baskets are on Bloomberg you have to pay extra for we don't have this but that's what I'm paying for the gold for the Goldman baskets

no that's a chart that's really good these are companies that have specific implementable AI plans but they are not themselves

AI companies or tech or tech or tech at all or tech so josh what happened at c s today because i did not have uh time to look the the all the shit went down yesterday um so c s consumer electronics show historically this was like consumer electronics and gadgets but it's like obviously way bigger than that it's one of the biggest technology events of the year a lot of the largest technology companies like to use this to set the tone for the year ahead because of where it falls on the calendar. And I just wanted to pull out two and just like give you a rundown. I wanted to do

Amazon and Nvidia. Run me down. Amazon was one of the weaker of the Mag 7 in terms of share price return. Horrible. Chart on 41% total returns over the last three years. Again, that's versus an S&P that's doubled. And, um, right. Okay, Amazon used CES to showcase a lot of different stuff. Like they went across the whole company. And I'm just going to give you the highlights. One of the things that got the most attention is a 4K television that's got a matte

finish to the screen. And it's meant to showcase art. It's called the Ember Artline TV. So dude, Ben has one of those. I don't know if it's like this one exact, but in his, his house. It looks amazing. It looks like art. It's beautiful. So it's going to come preloaded with 2,000 works of art. But then also it'll use your own photos and motion sensing technology that will adapt to what's shown on screen and Alexa integration, blah, blah, blah. Okay.

They also finally got around to launching Alexa as a browser experience. So Alexa, you only experienced with voice, like using the echo or the echo dot or one of their speaker devices. Now it's a full-on AI browser experience. Alexa Plus is available on Alexa.com. And it's meant to incorporate the people, the users of Alexa, I think there were 600 million devices out there or something, now we'll have access to things they've said to the device as part of like the online experience.

So Alexa.com has just entered the LLM wars, I want to say, which I think is sort of interesting. They're also, they had a lot of stuff with AI for advertisers. Amazon's the third largest advertising business in the world. A lot of people don't realize that, so they rolled out a whole suite of tools for ads. All right, ring, new security hardware,

a mobile off-grid security trailer designed for construction sites and temporary locations, new ring cameras with wider fields of view, new sensors for doors, windows, and glass brake detection, and a fire watch feature that provides alerts during nearby fire events. So they are not giving up on Amazon and the home.

I shouldn't say giving up. They have not stopped innovating there. Fire TV and gaming. New interface upgrades to Fire TV, faster navigation, improve content discovery. Fire TV, like the fire stick? I haven't heard of that in years. Expanding cloud games.

gaming support with Nvidia, G-Force now, blah, blah, blah. Automotive, they own their own autonomous Robotaxi platform. It's called Zux, Z-O-O-X. We talked about this once. I put one on the screen. This is like the little bus that picks you up at Las Vegas Airport and goes forward and backward. It never has the turn.

It has no front and no back. So whichever direction it's going, that's the front. and it's like it's meant to get people from the airport um oh yeah i remember this thing it's cute it's cute right yeah uh you would right right right raven's fire john harbaw for real wow wow why you put the wrong kicker in wow what he wanted to do wow um all right sorry back to you anyway amazon uh i think amazon made a very big impression um and the stock has been doing well since, since yesterday. Dude, I feel once the last time Amazon had a up three and a half percent day?

I feel like it's been a minute. I think the Alexa AI enabled browser, like Alexa by browser, I think got people thinking, ooh, maybe they are on the consumer facing AI side and it's not just AWS. I don't quite follow an Alexa browser like. If you are one of the people who regularly use Alexa, all of that is context for the types of answers. You might want to type into the thing, the way that you would type into Gemini or, right? So it's like a browser-enabled version of your current interactions with Alexa. Anyway, stocks going up.

It doesn't matter. It is challenging. It's November 5th high. I just bought more. I think it's going to break out. And I did a big average. I did a big average up. because I'm up a lot in it.

All right, Nvidia, this thing, this thing got some legs. They absolutely crushed it at CES. Jensen Wang was the keynote. On the AI computing platform front, they introduced Ruben.

The Ruben GPU architecture. Ruben? Is the successor to Blackwell. So again, they're on an annual cadence at this point. of releasing the next GPU and the next GPU. The Ruben platform integrates CPUs, GPUs networking and software into these massive systems

and the power, the efficiency improvements, basically like this is going to be the next foundational platform. All the hypers are going to have to have access to it. Their customers will demand it. Robots, people had not been thinking about Nvidia as more than a chipmaker for robots. But like the physical AI strategy, I think,

is having its coming out party right now. Physical AI is the next five years of earnings growth for Nvidia beyond just data center. And they will be every bit as important in robots as they are in cloud and data center. How much do you think like that is in the price? Like if we, if this robot shit ends up being like what? what okay very little very little because it's not here yet um but there's a there's a lot

going on with robotics and i don't want to do a whole thing on robotics right now because it deserves more time and attention but um i i think the paton is going to be passed from data center build out to the autonomous age and i think that's like probably this is going to be the transition year so who are the who are the non obvious winners qualcom Qualcomm released a robot brain. People don't even understand. They built a set of chips combined with software that's designed to function as a robot brain

so that anyone who wants to build robotics can skip ahead 10 years worth of R&D and just literally put this brain into whatever robot they're building and have it instantly be able to do things. Like you don't have to do 10 years worth of research like Tesla. And Savita's bearish. We got robot brains.

What's wrong with her? Anyway, we do a whole. 4060? 2575. All right. Anyway, the big thing that Nvidia did, though, they changed the entire narrative about autonomous driving. It took them one year to do what took Tesla eight years.

They put a car on the road, drove completely through Sanford. with no human intervention, with technology that is basically a year's worth of work. And why that's important is that NVIDIA's OEM customers in automotive is a who's who of companies that are not just going to sit back and watch Waymo and Tesla carve up the entire autonomous opportunity. Nvidia has agreements and does business with GM, Jaguar Land Rover, Mercedes-Benz, Toyota, Volvo. Every major auto manufacturer around the world

is going to get access to if they want it to Nvidia's software plus automotive chipset, which is called drive, that they can turn their cars into autonomous cars. They'll be at level two immediately. This is what hit Tesla today? This is what hit Tesla today? and it's what boosted in Uber because Uber showed up with their own version of an autonomous

vehicle that's been built just for their platform. They're not the manufacturer or the owner of the car. That's lucid. And an AI company called Nuro. And it's been built with Uber's help. Uber designed the cabin. It holds six passengers. The thing looks sick.

They showed it in black. It's got racks of sensors on the roof. sensors on the front they're going to build 100,000 of these things um dude who's an $11 stock I'm really surprised by that

LCID but that's the OEM partner for this particular product and it's running invidia here's the point it's running invidia and that got people

really excited about the possibility of invidia arming all these OEMs which would then be able to put fleets of autonomous taxis on the Uber network um invidia's kind of stuck in the mud like the stock's not really i mean it's fine but it's not really doing much

dude robots brains robot brains by qualcomm all right good stuff thank you for thank you for bringing me up to speed uh anyway that's what that's what happened today was a big narrative shift oh oh invidia is an autonomous driving stock and a robot stock oh shit Like, people were not thinking, like, I know it's not brand new.

People that really understand the technology understand this. But I'm saying, like, stock market people were like, you know what I mean? Like, it was like, it was a vibe shift. It was a vibe shift. And I felt it in my soul. Before, before I do the mystery chart, I want to. Wait, wait, before you, before you do that, you mentioned that Nvidia is stuck in the mud. Let's do some quick price target updates after Jensen went.

King's keynote. Wells Fargo overweight 265 highlight analyst Aaron Rakers highlighted the design of Rubin with six new co-design chips as a key differentiator JP Morgan overweight

250 quote Ruben GPU confirmed to be on track for calendar second half 26 ramp leaning even further into physical AI opportunity take that take that application-specific integrated circuits

Morgan Stanley overweight 250 Joseph Moore said Nvidia's Rubin will quote again raise the bar for performance Stop I know what it's bearish I get it that's good UBS 235 Piper Sandler 225 Everybody saw this Where's where's Wedbush

Where's Dan? Where's Dan? Where's Dan? Did he get Dan? A-R! He's at $493,000 million. All right. This morning, this morning, I saw Sam posted something on Instagram that, like, you can go to your settings and look at your earliest liked shit on Instagram. Right.

So I did that. And the photos that I saw of you and the kids, like almost made me cry. Oh, my God. yeah like 20 2012 like early yeah like so for me the early shit that I liked it was like you with the kids in 2012 it was fucking wild to see my kids were you I could carry them both in so Justin Justin was Ironman them both in my arms I think he was Ironman in one of the photos for Halloween yeah it was amazing all right thanks for making me cry let's do uh make the case then we'll do mystery chart and we'll get out of here wait don't we do misread chart first what

we do first make the case go ahead I'm I'm pitching you two stuff stocks. I'm very lightly pitched these. Sean and I wrote these up yesterday for CNBC Pro. We have a column there called the best stocks in the market. We write twice a week. These were really interesting ones. Here's Fifth Third Bank, FITB. So fifth third last year announced one of the biggest regional bank mergers ever. They're buying Comerica for $11 billion. They're claiming $850 million Synergy by 2027, which means clearing out a lot of redundant operations, maybe closing some branches. And this is going to be, I think, one of the top 20 banks in the country when it's done.

All right. Who cares? The stock looks great. Stock looks unbelievable, right? Yeah. I think it's going to 60. Let me show you. And it's a 3% something yield.

PNC, this is run by a guy named Bill Demchak, who they call Jamie Jr. It's like an amazing growth story where they're going into the fastest growing markets in the country, Florida, Texas. This thing just looks like it's ready to roar. It's been consolidating for a year. But this is like a pretty obvious breakout. You know what? I was about to say, like, PNC, these stocks don't war. Oh, yeah?

City was up 70% last year. Maybe they're sometimes they roar. Because they're going to get re-rated. They're not regionals anymore. They're super regionals. It's a different category. It's like a robot brain being inserted directly into these stocks. They just, they're, I think they both will have earnings growth from synergies of big mergers,

but also they'll get a little bit of an upgrade in the multiple. And I think these could both be like 10, 15, 20% growers without taking a ton of risk. So, I like that. I love the pitch. One more thing. Shari looks the same. You don't. Yes.

Fair. Fair. Okay. All right. I got a mystery chart coming on. And I'm going to be lighting the clues. Chart on. This is the price.

Next chart. This is the market cap. I mean, this is insane shit. So for people that are listening, this is a stock. The market cap was on, I don't know, $120 billion. million dollars seven months ago not even it's 386 billion dollars now so this is obviously a stock that you know it's going literally vertical what are we talking about here can I go

back to the first chart the price yeah oh my palenteer my cron yeah my cron right I knew it was one of the other I mean dude thought the market cap chart on look at the what is that This is mental. So Josh. So Josh, my call about maybe there being a blow off top in SMH, IGV, like, dude, that's, that went vertical. Sandisk, Micron, West Indich. What's so funny about that.

We both just said Western Ditch. These were, these were the stocks of my youth. These were the high flying tech stocks of, of 25 years ago when I got into this game or 27, 28 years ago and they did nothing for two and a half decades and this AI build out just like resurrected all of them del Corning GLW these were my stocks Sienna Cisco that's where the if there is a blow off top it's in the stocks of my youth it's an incredible thing to see these things come back 30 years later the stocks your youth you sound like Barbara Streis and I meet the fuckers are the fruits of my youth these are the fruit of my lines

Please, I traded these stocks when I was 20 years old. Dude, Cisco just made, I think Cisco just made a venture deal. Do you know, do you know who J-Bull Circuit is? Not personally. This is one of the hottest stocks in the galaxy. It's on my list of best stocks in the market. I used to make a market in this stock. I worked at a boiler room that owned like 30% of the float.

Before it was New York Stock Exchange, it was J-B-I-L, and I could still do the pitch. The founders' names were Jay and Bill. That's why. Shut up. Shut up. My life. And it was called and it was called Jay Bill Circuit was the full name in the company. And they literally were an electronic contract manufacturer where like Dell and all these companies that made PCs and keyboards, they would outsource it to Jable. Jable would make boxes and then ship them in a Dell box. Wait, why are we talking about Jable? Because that is a stock of my youth that is now one of the best stocks in the market, along with Sienna. Wait, what's the ticker of J-B-B-L?

Oh, J-B-L. J-B-L. Nobody, no, but people don't understand. This was a NASDAQ small cap. We used to pitch this. It was like making keyboards and servers in Asia for IBM and Compaq and Dell. Like the fact that this is one of the biggest players in the, AI age. It's so much fun for me. So maybe it is 1999. But it's just, it's awesome to see these

stocks get like a second, a second crack at it. So anyway, all right, that's the show for tonight. I hope you guys had as much fun as Michael and I did. We love you. We miss you when we're not here. Thank you, as always, for joining us on the live. I want to let you know tomorrow is Wednesday, which means when you wake up, brand new animal spirits on the podcast app of your choice, That's Ben Carlson and Michael Batnik, my favorite podcast, hands down. And if you like this show, you'll love that show too. We'll do Ask the Compound Later this week. We'll do The Compound and Friends at the end of the week with a very, very bold name, fancy, famous guest.

And you guys are going to love that as well. So keep it locked on the compound all week. We are going to deliver in 2026. Thank you all for coming out. God bless. Good night. You know what I'm going to do.