The Compound and Friends - Store of Value

Episode Date: September 2, 2022

On episode 60 of The Compound and Friends, JC Parets joins Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown to discuss JC's latest treasure trove of charts, Bitcoin as a store of value, what Buffett has been buying, and much more! Bonus: Michael reacts to breaking NBA news! This episode is presented by https://liftoffinvest.com. Liftoff® is an automated investment advisory service powered by Betterment, and is a wholly owned entity of Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC. Ritholtz Wealth Management is a Registered Investment Advisor who receives fees from clients who invest in their Liftoff proprietary portfolios, which are not necessarily discussed in the commentary. Check out the latest in financial blogger fashion at The Compound shop: https://www.idontshop.com Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here: https://ritholtzwealth.com/disclosures/ Inclusion of advertisements by podcast sponsors does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers: https://abnormalreturns.us5.list-manage.com/track/click?u=f8843b0fc6f0ed7d35e67dcf5&id=33b07916d1&e=4e0f612ef0. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Wait, is that random? How come? Wow, that is hilarious. Are these locked into position? Whoa, is it listening? It's totally listening to us. Did you see that? It's totally listening to us.

No. It's totally listening to us. Duncan, did you do that on purpose? Huh. Dude, daddy is listening, man. That's so scary. How's my height? How's my height?

I really don't care if they listen to me or not. Like, if you... My life is pretty boring, like, if you're like a... You mean like they? Like, yeah, I don't care't care. What am I saying? They're going to be bored to death The Fed? Yeah, they're listening to me like what am I doing?

I'm playing with my baby The Fed is subscribed I'm not shorting cotton Seems like a bold strategy, Cotton Yo, did you see Ben did the funniest thing on the podcast this week. Did he? He see yo yo Ben did the funniest thing on the podcast this week did he

he did he's not like the funniest person is he what am I lying JC watch this JC watch this but how how many

pieces of debt I don't know why I said pieces of debt but how many I eat pieces of debt like you for breakfast very confident in my assertion Ben has Ben Ben every once in a while But how many pieces of death are left for us? I eat pieces of death like you for breakfast. Very confident in my assertion.

Ben has. Ben, Ben, everyone's the one who has one of those. You eat pieces of shit, right? No. That was from Kanye. That's Kanye. No, it's Shooter McGavin. Fine, but then Kanye. No, no, no, no, no, no, no.

You eat pieces of shit. I eat pieces of shit like you for breakfast. It's like, what? You eat pieces of shit? It's in the ripping off. What song is that? Is that Jesus Walks? I think that's in Jesus Walks.

There you go. I knew it first. I listened to that album. Did you see the video? There's no way he was quoting Kanye, though. No, no, no. No. No, no, no.

Ben was definitely not quoting Kanye. That's funny. Did you see the video of Kanye berating the executives from The Gap? Did you see that anywhere online this week? Yo, what are you doing? Are you doing business? Are you doing business right now? We're podcasting.

Are you doing business? We don't have a charge. Now you know how it feels. Now you know how it feels. I'm singularly focused. I saw you studying for your ACTs during the last podcast. Listen. Years ago, I walked into the New York Stock Exchange.

I was walking around, and I go to Jay Woods' booth, and he's reading the Elliott Wave book. I'm studying for a test. It was a long time ago. With the market open. In the middle of the day. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Shout out, Jay Woods.

Shout out to Jay. There's this video. I think Kanye might have posted it. He's just, like, I guess Gap Store's stock is now stock is now like $8 and it looks like it's going to zero. And he's like yelling at a group of, it looks like Gap executives. Oh my God. What the fuck? Look at it.

Look at this chart. That's only like the last year. The GPS? Yeah. What in the world? It's going in the wrong direction. Dude. Totally.

What in the world? He makes unsellable clothing and tries to – No, but I've honestly – I have Kanye shoes. Those are comfy. The shoes are great. How have I not seen this chart? Look at this.

From 2020, straight up, straight down. Can I tell you what I think is going on? I think when he came up with the Yeezys, he was like listening to people. And so he worked with adidas and they've sold i don't know a trillion pairs of sneakers around the world so he was like kind of listening to them and they were able to interject and be like no it's not practical if they fly uh mr west but he had so much success with that and became a multi-billionaire and now he doesn't listen to anyone so the gap it does not have the upper hand in the way that adidas does the gap basically it's kanye if kanye doesn't work

out it's a the whole company's worthless uh it was that big of a bet yeah dude it's like dre and m yeah right but so so they gave him a ton of creative control because he's already made billions of dollars for adidas the problem is he's like reveling in like just this moment where he can say the craziest shit and people do it so he's like listen i want to sell sweatshirts out of gigantic garbage bags and i'm inspired by the homeless and like i mean this is I'm not even making this shit up. No, I know. All right, nobody cares. Is this plugged in?

Yo, more importantly, is Raheem Mostert draftable in the seventh round? I haven't the foggiest idea. But are you a Dolphins fan? Are we recording? I don't know. Who is recording? Are the Dolphins going to be okay this year? The Dolphins are winning the Super Bowl.

Are you kidding me? Forget I asked. If you want to come, it's in Arizona, I think. Forget I asked. Forget I asked. You can come with me. Forget I asked. The ticket's on me.

Duncan, this isn't charging. I know. Do you need actual power? I need actual power. Why didn't you think he was going to tell you? I mean, I just asked a question. Is Raheem Mostert draftable? Because I drafted him last night in the later round.

It was a bit of a stretch, but it wasn't my team, so it doesn't matter. Wait, wait, wait. You do fantasy football? No, it was for my nephew. It was for my nephew. No, no, I'm in a league. I've been in my fantasy football league for 22 straight years. I only do one.

You know my friend Matt? Yeah. Okay. He's in a fantasy football league, and his team is called the Killer's Dip. The Killer's Dip. I don't get it. No, of course not. Once upon a time, like a million years ago, they had a draft and a guy showed up and brought dip.

And then that guy, I think, committed a crime or something. Oh, I get it. Yeah. It's actually – You know, speaking of dip, I had two good dips over the weekend, both from Trader Joe's. One, a caramelized onion dip. Excellent.

The other, a buffalo chicken dip. Is that the kind of dip you were talking about? Yeah. Oh, okay. No. I think this was a bean dip, though, is my story. Right? We do dips.

I thought you meant tobacco. No, no, no. Right? We do dips. I thought you meant tobacco. No, no, no. This is like north of the Mason-Dixon line. Nobody chooses tobacco. No, dip to North Carolinians means dip. To Jewish people, dip means, you know, with a pita chip or pretzel. Gotcha. That's better.

Wait. You buy pre-made dips from Trader Joe's? My wife does. I'm telling you, the caramelized onion and the buffalo chicken are both excellent. What are you dipping in it? I was dipping pretzels. My wife does. I'm telling you, the caramelized onion and the buffalo chicken are both excellent. What are you dipping in it? I was dipping pretzels. I was dipping fingers.

Nice. Nice. Where the f*** is this guy? Should one of you wear the shirt? I'm not wearing that shirt. I got my next shirt. I don't have mine here. I'm going to wear it on Tuesday. Okay. I'll announce it tonight. Okay. And we'll wear it.

Is it in the store? Yeah, I just added it. Okay. Alright, we'll make sure we get that up. We'll make sure we get that up. How come you guys wear headphones? You have to wear headphones. We're right in front of each other. No, no, no. You guys have to be able to hear yourself.

No, because if you know if you're on the mic or not, it's for you, not for me. It's for me? Yeah, there you go. I mean, you're always on mic, even if you're like... Also, every once in a while, I might do something like that. Even if JC's 10 feet away from the mic, he's on the mic. You know where we're eating for dinner tonight?

We're eating at Danny Meyer's in the joint, right? Yeah. Have you been yet? No. I haven't been yet. Where is it? Hell's Kitchen, right? It's like far west 33rd. CC Amo. yet. Where is it? Hell's Kitchen, right? It's like far west 33rd.

Ciciamo. How do you spell that? C-I space S-I-A-M-O. Dude, it's Danny Meyer. What more do you need, right? Did you know he has the restaurant at the top of one Vanderbilt also? Holy shnikes. Duncan, I sent you the charts.

It's going to be off the chain. Okay. Flip them all upside down. I went to Union Square Cafe the other day. I'll be hungry because I'm ordering one of everything. Okay. I will choose the wine. And JC is going to choose the wine.

Whoa. Okay. This looks good. Sick, right? Yeah. I have an obsession with Italian wine. I really have issues. What kind of Italian wine do you have an obsession with?

All? Chateau Fibonacci? You know, from, I mean, obviously the Barolos and the Barbarescos and the Brunellos and like just classic everybody loves. You know, in Italy, I ordered a Barolo because it was like one of the only Italian wines I could think of. The guy's like, what are you in the mood for? I'm like, I'm in the mood for like...

I will have the JC Parato Barolo. And it's like noon. It's like noon out in the hottest hell. Wait, the guy goes, shut up. I go, what do you mean? He goes, I'm going to bring you wine. Don't make things up. Like literally straight up like that.

And I guess he knew that I would laugh about it in a good sense of humor. Right. But yes, Italy was under a heat dome this summer. It was 100 degrees every single day. And I'm ordering like the thickest sludge you could imagine. And the guy was just like, all right, you're an idiot. Hang on.

I'll save you. Yeah. He's absolutely right. I have no idea what he brought, but it was off the chain. Not that. Well, it's a big wine. You need like a big meal for that. It's got to be, if it's cold, even better.

Like if it's cold out. But even like the whites. Like need a big meal for that. It's got to be, if it's cold, even better. If it's cold out. But even the whites. My dirty whites. You get a Venacha or a Vermentino. It's lovely. But also, it's a region. If you're a know-nothing like me and you arrive on the Amalfi Coast, they want to serve you something from the region. Sure.

If you're like, what should I drink? They're not going to you something from the region. Sure. Like if you're like, what should I drink? They're not going to recommend something from somewhere else. Agreed. That's not what you want anyway. Right. So I don't know what's from the region. So you have a good time?

Where'd you go? We did Sorrento. Not Sorrento. We did Capri. Yeah, what's that? We did Amalfi and we did Positano. Yeah. So all that Amalfi Coast and we did Positano. Yeah. I guess all that Amalfi Coast area. Yeah, like two nights in each.

It was amazing. You went just you and Sprinkles? Yeah. John, I love that shirt. Thank you. You're welcome. I want to go back. Oh, I have something for you.

Before we even get started. Oh, presents, kid. Well, this is going to be for the twins. Oh, snap. Have you seen this yet? No. Oh, my God. Oh, snap. Have you seen this yet? No. Oh, my God. That's hilarious.

I know you do really great merch at All Star Charts, but, like, we do some merch, too. Shout out Giancarlo does the merch. I have nothing to do with any of it. All right. Not bad, right? No? Nice. Thank you, JV. You got it. You show the cameras that? That's pretty sweet, huh? We heart small caps, for those listening at home. We love small caps. So we send those to whenever somebody that works here as a baby or a client has a baby,

we get those out immediately. Thank you. Appreciate that. JC, does this candle excite you at all? Let's ask you that. A little bit? I know you like a one-minute candle. No, it's a daily.

It's a daily. Daily spy? So what, just turn green? Yeah. All right. We'll take it. That starts somewhere. I mean, we started months ago. Marco, what was it down? 1% today at turn green? Yeah. All right. We'll take it. That starts somewhere. I mean, we started months ago.

Marco, what was it down? 1% today at the lowest? Maybe. Free for you intraday. But I will say, hold on. The closest is 50 minutes away. Let's not get carried away. Let's not get carried away.

Why am I even looking at a daily chart right now? The day's not over. Calmer than you are. Calmer than you are. All right, coming to the third class. That's two Lebowski references pre-show. We love it. Love to see it.

We're setting a new record, new Lebowski reference record. Welcome to the Compound and Friends. All opinions expressed by me, Michael Batnick, and our castmates are solely our own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions. Clients of Ritholtz Wealth Management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. Duncan, this week, my little guy,

who was it last week? Logan turned three years old. He got some checks and I deposited them into his Lyft account. You know, and you know what? I also sprinkled a little bit on top.

I was that, right? I got him a birthday present. You didn't take a cut. I did not. Not only did I not take a cut, I even sprinkled in some on top, on top of my regular scheduled monthly payments. He'll thank me later. So if you want to invest alongside Logan, alongside Kobe, alongside myself, go to liftoffinvest.com. You can get access to one

of our certified financial planners. If you've got questions, investment, planning, anything of the sort, we got you covered. Liftoffinvest.com. J.C. Peretz. J.C. Peretz in the house. Fan favorite. You know you're a fan favorite? I mean, they either love me or hate me, right? Do you?

Is it polarizing? Yeah. We do shows with, like, somebody that has nothing to do with anything to do with you. And in the comments, like, where's J nothing to do with anything to do with you. And in the comments, like, where's JC? No, people love you. They love you.

All right. If anyone doesn't like you, it has bad taste. Well, listen, I appreciate that. Thanks, guys. Shout out to the Ritholtz Wealth Management YouTube channel followers. Yeah, let me just show you this. I forgot to show you this. So I've got a Discord channel for my animal spirits, guys.

This dude, yes, and it goes, yells in JC voice, quote, the charts are the charts. I'm telling you, you have a following, and you have a following amongst our following, because I think what you do when you come here is you don't equivocate, you don't hedge. He does what he does. This is what I think, and

I could change my mind, but right now this is what it is, and this is what it's based on. A lot of people have opinions, but can't tell you what they're based on. And then a lot of people have like a half opinion, and they don't want to really give you the full opinion because they don't want to be held to it. So I think you do a really good job at that. Well, thank you. Do you think that's an accurate description of why people love you? I mean, yeah, I guess.

I mean, you know, I tell it like it is. I mean, because you know why? Because I'm not going to tell you stories. I'm not Mother Goose. It's just surprising. We talk about only facts here, right? So it's hard to argue with me if all I'm talking is factual, right? Am I wrong?

It's hard to argue. Wait, hold on. It's hard to argue with me. Because I only say the truth. It's right. No, because all I have is facts. That's it. It's facts only. Am I only say the truth. It's right. No, because all I have is facts. That's it. It's facts only.

Am I wrong? No, you're actually not wrong. It would be very hard to argue with you because those are the facts. Let me give you an intro. JC is the founder and CEO of AllStarCharts.com, which is a research platform dedicated to technical analysis

across a spectrum of asset classes and geographies. How many charts do you look at on a weekly basis? 5,000. It's got to be, right? Yeah, 5,000. Because you're doing every commodity, every market, every factor within the markets. You're doing individual stocks.

You're doing rates. Currencies, intermarketmarket what aren't you looking what happens do you ever whatever is not liquid i don't look at do you ever get to a point where you're just like all right half of this shit is not worth my time or is it like i don't know which half when you start going through charts and i mean i could draw most of them for you at this point you know what to look for so like there are certain markets that I know are messy because they've been messy. Like I'm not really going to spend too much time in there.

I spend more time when things are like off when like, hey, if this is happening and this is happening, this should be happening, but it's not. So what's going on in there? And I'll dive deeper in there. So that's really where I spend most of my time when something doesn't add up.

Is that what you would call an inflection? Or like a divergence Like a divergence. Yeah, you know, like just making up an example. In 2018, U.S. 10-year yield hit 3%, broke out above 3%. But then the copper-gold ratio was making lower highs. Regional banks were underperforming REITs. So, in other words, the stock market and the commodities market were not confirming the bond market. So, it was like something funky is going on here. As it turns out, the bond market was wrong.

The commodities market and the stock market was right, and yields fell apart from there. So it's just like a classic example of the intermarket relationships not adding up, and that itself is the signal. So that will, when you're going through 5,000 charts, something like that will catch your eye, and then that'll force you to spend time on it. And there's like a million charts that are in the middle of the range. Nothing's really going on with them. Another great example, this summer, this spring, everything's falling apart.

Everything's making new lows. Chinese internet bottomed in March. Chinese internet bottomed in March? Really? That doesn't add up. Like that doesn't make any sense at all. Like if crypto's falling apart, growth stocks are falling apart,

Cathie Wood's going to jail, like all those things are happening. Why did Chinese internet bottom six months? That's just something that doesn't add up. There's something there. There's something funky there. I think that's part of the reason why I think that we are in a bottoming process. The worst is behind us.

And the risk for investors is not being long enough. I think the weight of the evidence points to that. Okay. So you think June was the bottom? I do. So you're now a contrarian. Am I? Yeah. I think the weight of the evidence points to that. Okay. So you think June was the bottom? I do. So you're, you're now a contrarian. Am I? Yeah. I think so. Yeah. Most people think, ah, most people think there's a retest at least. Well, I think it's mixed. I think there will, there, there, we've already seen some retests, like in communications, for example, in social media, we've already seen those retests. Cruises. And then you're going to have some, some sectors

of the market that don't retest. you're going to have some sectors of the market that don't retest. You're going to have some indexes that retest, some don't. And then you're going to have some that come nowhere near it. And those will be areas that we are focused on showing relative strength, things like utilities, things like energy, obviously, the areas that stay as far away from those lows as possible. Those might not be the best trades off the lows, but those are like the highest probability intermediate term trades. Well, you get the rotation, right?

So off the lows, the worst, most beat up stuff is going to bounce the most. It's going to go up 20%. So the average stock in the NASDAQ bounced over 40%. The average stock in the NASDAQ. But they were the ones hit the hardest. They were down 70. Right.

So did energy bounce that much? Of course not. It didn't have that much to bounce. Got it. Okay. All right. So we're going to- You know what I think about them?

Not that anybody cares, but Snap, they had 20% layoffs yesterday. You showed me the news today. Yeah. Stock's up 7% today. Well, I'll tell you something else, and it's bigger than- Wall Street likes layoffs. Hold on. Let me tell you something.

It's bigger than... Wall Street likes layoffs. Hold on, let me tell you something. It's bigger than Snap. It's the fact that Snap, social media as an industry group index, S-O-C-L, communications as the worst sector of last year, the worst one this year, just the worst of the worst. Have you noticed that none of them are making new lows?

None of them. So to quote shout out Luis Yamada, JC, they have to stop going down before they can start going up. It's true. That's true. That's a fact. Facts only.

Shout out Luis Yamada. What's in that? Not in Big Lebowski. What's in that sector? It's Facebook, Netflix. Wait, look at meta. You think this bottom holds? Google's in communications.

Does this bottom hold on Facebook? We have a risk reversal on Facebook, actually. So we are betting very aggressively that it is. So, I said to Josh the other day, I said, this is a classic JC. If it does break down on a failed basis... Well, we're already in. So, we're betting

that it does hold the lows. We actually sold puts naked, took that money, bought out of the money calls, going out to, I think, October. Check my... Sean helps us with the execution on the strikes and whatnot. If Facebook does hold, I feel like that's an important stock. It's right there, though.

It's right on the edge. It's bigger than, you're not thinking fourth dimensionally. Of course not. Back to the future, right? You like that? It's that these are the worst ones, right? And they're not making new lows.

These are the worst, worst, worst things. I said not yet? Fine. So if the world is coming to an end, Cathie Wood's going to jail. Hold on. What are we accusing Cathie Wood of? No one's accusing her of anything, but like the- Let's use a different metaphor. It's just a philosophy of perma bears who think the world's going to come to an end. That's like part of their theory. Oh, that's childish. No, I know. I understand. So I don't mean to pick on Cathie bears who think the world's going to come to an end. That's like part of their theory.

Oh, that's childish. No, I know. I understand. So I don't mean to pick on Cathy. I think the opposite. In fact, we're buying these stocks, right? So the culprits are the ARK stocks, the Cathy Wood stocks. Those are the culprits.

Those are the ones that peaked in February of last year, right? Those are the first ones that started going down. Chinese internet, the growth stocks, biotech, small cap growth, all of those peaked. Remember, everybody had a SPAC, right? That's February of 2021. So if those stocks, if the market's going to roll over, S&P 500 is going to crash, the world's coming to an end,

all of those things that you hear, if that's going to happen, those are going to be the first ones to break down and make new lows. Those are financials of 07. ARK just started buying NVIDIA, and of course, NVIDIA is down a quick 20% immediately. They're not all moving the same, though. DocuSign and Zoom did in fact make new lows, like just today.

But a lot of them aren't. Square, for example, Teladoc. No, but NVIDIA AMD were dragging the socks down. I think the socks is going to violate the June low. No. I think semis are extremely important to tech and to the Qs.

Yeah, but if interest rates are going up, semis are going to suck. Okay, so that group making a new low below the June low is only relevant to that group? New lows and new relative lows. So it's not just- Relative to what? Relative to the overall market.

So you have semiconductors underperforming, making new lows. That makes perfect sense in a rising rate environment. If that wasn't happening, that would be odd. So we could have those stocks in a downtrend. NVIDIA is a $400 billion market cap. Intel's $1.20. We could have AMD's pretty big, not that big. But we can have those stocks crashing through the June lows and still be intact on the NASDAQ overall. No, I don't think so. I think if those are all collapsing and completing tops, it's going to make it tough. But I think they can continue to underperform.

I mean, remember 2004, 2005, 2006? The market did great. Tech stocks were an afterthought. Interest rates were going up. We're in that kind of environment, I think. So I want to get to your charts right off the bat because this is like one of my favorite things that we do here. And I

always learn so much. Do you have a particular order these all set up? Just f***ing take them. Let's just go. Yeah, I say let's f***ing go. Alright, I like it. Very confident in my assertion. Thank you, Ben. Okay. Oh, is Ben here? No. Oh, you pressed the button? I'm like, wait, wait,. Thank you, Ben. Okay. Oh, is Ben here? No.

Oh, you pressed the button? I'm like, wait, wait, what? Let's start from the beginning. All right, let's go. This is the NASDAQ composite. And what average draw out of that? This is bullshit again. This is the average draw. Why do you hate this chart, Michael?

Why do you hate this chart? Because JC's obsessed with February 21. Keep going, keep going. I wouldn't say I'm obsessed with it. He literally is leading with this joke. He told you the market pe obsessed with February 21. Keep going. Keep going. I wouldn't say I'm obsessed with it. He literally is leading with this joke. He told you the market peaked in February 2021. You were not ready to hear that at the time. Right.

This is like a year ago or more. He's going to show you this chart in 10 years. This is going to be an arrow. February of 2021. Oh, my God. J.C.'s going to show you this chart every year. All right. Why don't we look at that?

So the average stock on the NASDAQ fell 43%. Next chart. No, no, no, hold on. No, wait. Fine. That was a good chart. That was a good chart.

Oh, wow. This is Red Holtz-y, right? Isn't this Red Holtz-y? Yes, yes, yes. We like it. We like it. We like the chart. See, I know my audience.

So this is, we got to describe for people that aren't looking at this. This is the S&P 500 with the 10-month exponential. Why do you use the EMA instead of the SMA? It's a little quicker. Okay.

But the SMA is going to give you pretty much the same signals. Yeah. And it's a little more efficient when you look at the annualized returns and the volatility. The EMA is going to be a little better because it's a little quicker. So it doesn't make that big of a deal, but yeah. What are you telling us here? Well, I mean, this is like the old, this is the oldest trend following strategy ever. Right. Like, I think it's hilarious that I get like, you know, I get, uh, I'm going to, I'm going to shut this down. I think it's hilarious that I get like,

you know, people are like, oh, this is the JC indicators. Like, first of all, this has been existed since way before JC was born. This is, in my opinion, the, the oldest trend following system that I know of that exists. You take a 10-month moving average. The S&P 500 closes above it. You stay long or you get long if you're not. I think like Meb Faber. He made it famous. Meb Faber made this famous in like 07. Sounds like

Meb. And then it worked. Like a quote unquote, had you followed it into 08, you avoided everything. Hey, we were talking about Sutmeyer's chart the other day. He looked at the 200 week. Is that too long term? I mean, it is for me. How many years is that? Four years? It's a lot.

It's like a four-year cycle. I get it. He used this to say we're in a cyclical bull within a secular bear and then used the 200 week. We're above the 200 week. But below the 10 month. Alright, so what does this tell you, JC? Well, listen, I don't necessarily follow this to a T. I don't have a specific part of my portfolio that follows this. It's more of just like one more input. Um, and then in April we closed below the 10 month

exponential moving average. So, you know, in case you hadn't heard, you know, we're not in a bull market, we're not in an uptrend, whatever it is. Um, and that, and that still hasn't changed. So it's not like my life's going to change and I'm going to flip the book long. If the, you know, we close above the moving average, like that's not how I roll. It's just one of 5,000 charts. Can I just say one thing for you? So you think the lowest, you happen to think the lowest. And however, I know that if you're wrong, you will change your mind. If the evidence shows that you're wrong, you'll change your mind. Obviously. Obviously. I asked you a different question. No, but that's not obvious because a lot of people don't. Oh, that's their problem.

So, so this is an exponential moving average, average, which means it's giving more weight to the more recent months. Yes. Is it true that there is less likely to be a flattened 200-day moving average using the EMA versus the SMA? I don't know. I haven't done that math. It's not going to change that much. Hey, you know how I know. Because with an SMA, though, you could have no trend.

You could have a flat, but with the EMA, if you're overweighting more recent months- It's not that different. It wouldn't be that different. Bottom line is this. If you're going to use a moving average, a daily moving average, it should be an anchor VWAP, not a simple moving average. But so now we're negatively sloped in addition to being below because the above-below game could get really stupid in a flat market. Like, oh, this month we're bullish.

Next month we're bearish because it's below. But below a falling 200-day EMA, to me, is more noteworthy. What do you think? This just points to that if we believe that we are in a bottoming process, and I do believe that, this is part of that process, exactly what you were pointing out.

Hey, JC, you know, I know we're not in a bull market. I was looking this morning. There are 80 stocks that are 20% below their 200-day moving average in the S&P 500. There are only six stocks that are 20% above their 200-day moving average. And it's like the most boring names in the world. Yeah.

And accidental. Yeah, I mean, listen, 200 days, you know, it's not perfect, obviously. There's 252 days. Yeah. And accidental. Yeah, I mean, listen, 200 days, you know, it's not perfect, obviously. There's 252 days. Whatever, nothing is. Yeah, nothing is. But it gives you a pretty good idea as to what,

because if you're above a 200-day moving average, It's easier to make money on the long side. You're probably not in a downtrend, right? It's probably easier to make money.

That's exactly right. And if you're above a rising 200-day moving average, you're probably not in a downtrend. So, like, it just goes both ways. And that's sort of how I think about it. Yesterday was the 100th day for the market below 200-day moving average, you're probably not in a downtrend. So it just goes both ways. And that's sort of how I think about it.

Yesterday was the 100th day for the market below the 200-day, which is a longer stretch than anything other than the financial crisis. Yeah. So this is like a way longer period of time below than COVID lockdowns. Anything. Well, that was a quick one. Even the trade war. We're 18 months into this one.s. Anything. Well, that was a quick one. Even the trade war. We're 18 months into this one. Right, okay, but so... No, we're not. Yes. No, but we're not 18. We are.

But I'm saying the S&P being in a downtrend for more than 100 days in and of itself, to me, is notable because that's enough time for psychology to shift. Josh, when did the S&P 500 peak? I know JC's not an S&P guy.

Most stocks peaked in February of 2021. Next chart. By the time the S&P 500 peaked, almost all of the components had already peaked. Peaked Thanksgiving. But anyway, that to me is- No, it peaked in January. That to me is notable.

Before we move to this next chart. What's notable? Just the length of time to be spending beneath the 200 day is enough time for people's attitudes to – and now like the V-shaped thing, like nobody's even looking for it anymore, which probably means we're going to have one. Yeah, and again, to your point, I think it's even longer than that, right? So while you're right – Yeah, there are people that own stocks that have been going down for a few months. Dude, the V is over. The V is invalidated. It doesn't matter if you go to new highs. The V is over. Yeah, So while you're right. Yeah, there are people that own stocks that have been going down for a few months. Dude, the V is over. The V is invalidated.

It doesn't matter if you go to new highs. The V is over. Yeah, even if you go right to new highs right now, it wouldn't matter. Okay. What are we looking at?

Oh, this is good. So we had 37 consecutive weeks where there were more stocks making new lows than new highs. And in bull markets, you see the exact opposite of that. Again, the longest period since the GFC.

This is a great chart. I like your style. We went, we turned blue. I love these sailboat charts. This is great. We had, shout out Willie Delwich and Grant. I like that he made it on Nick's colors. We appreciate that.

This is very good. All right. So this is consecutive weeks with the New York Stock Exchange and NASDAQ. Where there's more new highs or new lows. More new lows and new highs. So we had 37 straight weeks.'s more new highs or new lows. More new lows and new highs. So we had 37 straight weeks. Of more lows than highs.

Yeah, I mean- Hey, wait a minute. Is that blue right there? Right. We turned slightly blue for two weeks and then turned back down yesterday, last week. So, but stupid question. Like, obviously, if the last example you could find of this is 09, and we're almost getting to that length of time.

Well, we stopped. The streak was over. Yeah, we got two blue weeks, and then we rolled over again. That's called a winning streak. Well, so— No, because look, you have these back-to-back. You got a little bit of blue in—when the hell even was that? Yeah, but we could start a new streak, potentially.

And if we do start a new streak, then it's probably going to be a pretty bad scenario. I don't think that's what's going to happen. Yeah. Next chart. I think we've had enough. Yeah. So you had a 42% rally in the average stock in the NASDAQ off the lows. That's what this shows. That's pretty good.

And notice how all of that started. The average stock in the NASDAQ rallied 42% from the lows. That's good. It's a monster move. So it's just very classic of the initial thrust off the lows. We've seen it a monster move. So it's just very classic of, you know, the initial thrust off the lows. We've seen it a million times. If that was a bear market rally, that would be the mother of all bear market rallies.

That will really f*** people. If we roll over and start making new lows, that will be the greatest bear market rally in history. Yeah, we've never had a 53- Like the biggest head fake ever. The biggest retracement that didn't continue higher ever. Bear market rallies should not be 50% of the drawdown. Remember Urien's chart?

They never have been. Remember Urien's chart? We had never recaptured 50% of the decline and then rolled over to new lows. So can I just philosophically though, isn't this the wrong time to be predicting things that never happen, won't happen? Yeah. Well, yeah. Everything is so unprecedented.

Why wouldn't we have the mother of all bear market rallies? Every single day, something all the market rallies? Well, let's remember, every single day something in the market happens that has never happened before or rarely happens. So let's just remember that. But what we want to do as investors is we want to weigh all of the evidence. It's not the 10-month moving average. It's not this. It's not timers.

Urine timers, awesome, by the way. It's all of it. It's weighing all of the evidence and trying to put the probabilities in your favor. It's not about being right or wrong. It's like, okay, if this, this, this, this, and this all point to that, and all we got on this side is that and this, like, which side do you want to take? Well, that's the art form of this is knowing how to weight each piece of evidence. Right. I eat pieces of evidence for breakfast. Next chart.

All right. So, okay. We've got the setup. We've got some of the most- Describe to the audience what we're looking at. Hold on one second. Let me paint the picture. We've got, we're coming off some of the worst sentiment in history.

True. Ever. Individual and retail and professional. Some of the worst sentiment in history, right? We talked about the drawdown since February of 21, if you recall. Everyone had a SPAC. Remember Michael? Right?

So, great. Are we stretched? Do I think the risk is to the upside in stock? Yes. What is the catalyst? All of these things are great to put things into context, to identify what type of market environment we're in. But then you have to figure out, okay, what's the catalyst? What's going to unwind this whole trade?

And I think this is it. The dollar rolling over. The dollar peaking. I think it's not a want, it's a need. For risk assets to go higher. Stocks and crypto in particular. I don't understand how the dollar, I can understand how the dollar stops rallying or even pulls back. I really don't understand how it unwinds. It's the dollar versus the euro. That's the index. Right. Well, it's more than that, which we'll look at in a minute. How bigs. It's the dollar versus the euro. That's the index. Right. Well, it's more than that, which we'll look at in a minute. How big is the euro of the dollar index?

60%. That's big. Directionally, though. Well, but you could just- You've got to come up with a reason the euro is going to a dollar. Hold on. But there's a million ways to look at the dollar with the euro not in it. Fair.

Yeah. So it's not just the euro. The euro is a big percentage of the dollar index, right, to your point. But you could just X euro and you're going to get the same picture, by the way, for the most part. But let's take a look. And by the way, British pounds are even worse than euro. So that's another story. But it's really the negative correlation between the United States dollar and stocks and crypto in general.

And let's just go back in time for a hot second. What happened after the Trump election, right? The dollar peaked and started to fall. And what happened in 2017? One of the greatest years in the history of the stock market, crypto summer. Remember that? Remember the holidays in 2017? Your drunk uncle asking you about Bitcoin and all that stuff.

My high school buddies were texting me. JC, which cryptos should I be buying? Not if they should be buying cryptos. Yeah, which ones? Specifically which ones. I'll never forget it. By the way, Dallas making new highs today.

Right. So that's part of the issue that we're describing. Not great. Not great. So hold on. So the dollar gets slammed throughout 2017.

Stocks and crypto do great. Early 2018, dollar bottoms. And what happens to stocks and crypto around the world? They stop going up. Not just in the United States, but globally.

And then a funny thing happened after COVID, the dollar peaked and stopped going up and started to collapse. And what happened when the dollar collapsed after March of 2020? It was the greatest 52-week period in the history of the stock market ever. Like greatest period ever for the stock market. NFT summer, DeFi, all this. Are you suggesting this is causal or just something that has happened?

The fact of the matter is in the spring of last year, right? Just as the 52-week highs list was peaking, the dollar stopped going down in the dollar bottom. These are facts. And the dollar has ripped ever since. Facts, not opinions. And how have stocks done since February of 2021? They have not done very well at all. So for me, you can be in

three different buckets. You could say, ah, this is bullshit. This is just coincidence. Okay, fine. You could say- Oh, I'm not- No, no, hold on, hold on. Not you, but- The royal you. Utes can say, the royal you can say, this is just coincidence. This is bullshit. Fine. You could say, okay, it's been a negative correlation, but now that's going to change. Okay, great. Or you could be in my camp and bet that the correlation is going to remain in place. Well, you can see, though, that it's possible for the correlation to just go away. Correct.

And they won't tell you when it's going to happen. Is that the bet that you want to make, though, is my point? No. I'll tell you the bet I want to make. The shit show in Europe is going to be way worse than the great financial crisis for Europe. And it's tough to imagine a scenario where

the dollar falls apart during what I think is coming. Okay. So let's take Europe out of the equation. You don't think that's consensus? You don't think markets are pricing any of that in?

It could be consensus and still be true. Yeah. No, it's very much priced in. It's very much priced in. Listen, that's where it's being priced in, in that dollar-euro pair. So 100% – I'm not like a visionary to tell you that energy prices in Germany are up 16-fold. You can't survive that. An economy cannot survive that. So unless there's a solution, and there isn't, I just don't understand how you could have a scenario where the dollar gets completely wiped out versus the euro. So that's that pair. So it's consensus, but directionally, it really is not showing any indication of stopping.

So that would be a big concern then. Hey, I like this one. I didn't even know that emerging – good point, Josh. Sorry. Step on that. So that may or Good point, Josh. Sorry. Step on that. So that may or may not be true. The fact of the shit show in Europe is being priced into the currencies.

That might be true. It might not be. But when you take the euro completely out of the equation and you look at emerging market currencies, they peaked at the exact same time that the euro peaked. And I don't know if they're having the same electricity 16 times fold. They are. Great. So the bottom line is every single time that emerging market currencies have gone down here, they've rallied.

This is a great chart. I didn't know CEW was a thing. When emerging markets currencies are rallying. What's in this basket? CEW. Brazil, India, Russia, right? The big ones. So there's a push-pull in there that doesn't conform well to the story about Europe

and electricity shortages. The push-pull is half the country's... What the f***? Sorry, the Cavs got Donovan Mitchell? Really? No way. Stop. Swear, Woj just tweeted this.

Wow. Holy s***. That's a bummer. I wanted him. Wait, what did they have to do for that? You know what? I don't even care. I didn't want to trade six f***ing pitchers. Dude, they gave up all their picks for a decade. Sexton.

Yeah, but him and Mobley, that's good. Him and Mobley's nice. They just gave picks up? They gave up a lot, probably. Yeah, Sexton and... Four or five, number one, something crazy. Probably more than whatever KD got. All right.

We won't know if that's good or bad for probably two years. Are Knicks fans still Cavs fans, or is that over? What are you talking about? Remember back in years. Are Knicks fans still Cavs fans or is that over? What are you talking about? Remember back in the day Knicks fans were Cavs fans because LeBron was there? Stop. Come on. It cannot be further from the truth. It cannot be further from the truth.

This guy. We hated LeBron. Did we have to do this again? The New York City Cavaliers or something? No, just stop. Back to charts. I can't even believe this. I'm friends with a lot of Knicks fans.

Nobody says that. Wait, what did he – I wasn't even listening. What did you just say? The New York City Cavaliers of Cleveland or something like that? The Knicks were rooting for LeBron? Pre-him going to Miami. Get out of here. It's enough. This is back in the day. We wanted LeBron, obviously.

Oh, I know. Me and Josh were together that day. JC and I went out that night for the decision. It's a blackout to me. We were pre-gaming for the decision. Because after the decision was announced, I don't remember anything all of a sudden. I dropped on my knees, and I was so happy. I was literally praying, doing yoga. All right, so I guess the point is, it's not as clean a story for me. I know you don't care about the story, you care about the price, but like—

No, he's saying all the story is in the price. Am I right? Yeah. I mean you can't argue with the price. I'm not going to argue with you. Well, you have energy inside of emerging markets. You have both energy producers and energy consumers, the different economies that make up that basket. Oh, we'll get there.

So it's not as clean of a story. Three unprotected first-round picks and two pick swaps. That's it? No players? That can't be it. As part of the deal. As part of the deal. Yeah.

Three unprotected first round picks. Not bad. Yeah. Figured something like that. All right. All right. That's fine. I've already made my peace with it.

We'll keep our picks. All right. Next year will be a good draft. The year after will be a good draft. Yeah, but we're like in no man's land. Yeah, we'll miss the playoffs. Next year will be a good draft. The year after will be a good draft. Yeah, but we're like in no man's land. Yeah, we'll miss the playoffs. We won't be a good draft pick. We're like middle of the pack. We're like the 10th best team.

11th best team. We suck. It's like literally the worst. We're not even good at sucking. Yeah, we're going to make the play-in tournament. We suck. We suck again. You know Major League 2? We suck again. I know. Wow. Alright, what do we got next? I'm a Heat fan, so I don't know what you guys are talking about.

Alright. So, this is really interesting. I actually texted to you guys the other day. We used it. We used it. Yeah, yeah. This is great. So, I mean, I've studied these markets a million times. Like I said, I could probably draw them for you. You had the greatest of the two-week period in the history

of the stock market off of the 2020 lows. So that's March 2020 through February 21. Yeah. Okay. Biggest ripper ever. And now year two is? On this show. Yeah.

Here. We talked about like year twos were messy. Remember we talked about all that? That's exactly what happened. Well, you know, talk about a hot mess that we've been in for quite some time. So this is like a – you're getting this from like a composite of – This is the current market. This is the current.

But I'm saying like that's a pattern that – Well, look at it now. Yeah, 100%. So that's this year. So the question is year three, as we're going to look at now, historically does well after that year two digestion. I think Michael, when we actually were talking about year two, Michael was like, that makes sense to me. You have a big move and then it consolidates. That makes logical sense.

Tons of sense. Right? So if you want to go to the next chart. When does the meter start for year three? Right. It's a good question. It's not like an exact date. It's not exactly 52 weeks.

It's kind of like a range. Watch. As you'll see now, go to the next chart. And this shows a bunch. So you can go back to the early 20s, right before all the roaring 20s started. Go back to the early 30s. Go back to 1982 when 30s, go back to 1982 when JC was born, same exact thing. Strength off the first initial thrust, consolidation in

year two. And then in year three, we really get going. Saw the same thing after the tech bubble, saw the same thing in 09, saw the same thing. And we're seeing something very similar. In some of those years though, the consolidation gets uglier than in others. Sure. Yeah. Right. You know, this one looks maybe like the early 80s, right? Maybe it looks like the early 20s. You know, the one in 03 through 05, like, looks stronger. The one in 2009 maybe looks stronger.

But they all kind of have their own sort of symmetry, don't they? You've probably looked at this, but I'm just curious. What does the leadership change look like between year one and year three? You know, I think that you're going to get – you need rotation by definition. So I think off of the lows, you're going to get the bounce from the biggest losers, right? Which we saw. And then the rotation comes in where the ones that were prior, you know, previously showing relative strength, they kick back into gear, right? They were doing fine. They just weren't outperforming

like the ones off the lows. This is a sick chart. And they kick into high gear. This is great. This is great stuff. This is a really, right, this is like a really great tool,

teaching tool, for people that haven't experienced these markets, but just for them to like feel better about what's going on now. We're looking at six different charts of the Dow

showing year one of the bull market, year two, then boom, three of the breakout. I like it. Yeah, I like this a lot. It's not going to work this time, but I like it. Yeah, zero chance it happens this time. Right?

But that's not really the point, right? This is one of those charts that helps put everything into context, right? You can put the next one, and then we'll dive into, you know, we talked about the catalyst. Without the dollar falling, like I said, I don't think it's possible. So this is the S&P 500 four-year election cycle. Terranova was on the show two weeks ago. He's really into this also. Yep. So he had the stats.

You have the charts. Yep. So generally speaking, we'll include every year since 1950. We'll include all of the four-year cycles. So last year, it was all of the post-election years. This year, it's all the midterm years. Next year will be the pre-election years. And when you look at the four-year cycle,

and this also includes the decennial cycle. So when you include the four-year cycle, the time to be buying is in the summer of the midterm years. Which is now. Which is this summer. By the way, the midterm, it does make a lot of sense, just intuitively, that the midterm, it does make a lot of sense just intuitively that the midterm cycle stinks. But also that there's this liftoff with the finality of the election.

Or we used to have final results with elections. God knows what the hell goes on this time. But it makes sense that since 1950, the third year in the election cycle is the best because the guy in the White House has another couple of years of runway, but odds are whatever happened in the midterms went against him. So you have a little bit of that gridlock and as a result, less policy uncertainty. And I'm sure there's other things that go into it in every cycle that we could pick out, but just in broad strokes, even if you don't like who won the election, you probably do like the fact that it's over and done with yeah and you're not thinking about it

every day i could see that like that like this is one of those composites where this is what is it 70 years of history and then it also aligns really well with just what we know about human nature even if you hate the outcome you like the certainty better than the uncertainty so i mean just even you know the four-year cycle most certainly, but even throughout the year. I mean what do we do throughout the year? In different times of the year, we dress differently. We go to different places. We hang out with different people throughout different times of the year.

If you think that those changes in your life, those major changes in your life throughout the year don't impact your decision-making in the stock market, I think it's foolish. That's a really good point. The thing is, though, that not everybody's experiencing the same thing at the same time. Well, right. So it's an average. It's a mean, right? It's sort of like a general theme. So you're right. Didn't somebody do, Mike, didn't somebody do a thing about the rain and up days in the market or down days you remember that i remember like butter in bangladesh no i mean that's obviously the nonsense thing but somebody did something like that um i gotta go i gotta find that um but yeah yes that's the kind of thing that does make intuitive sense to me uh where are we going next all right so now okay fine great so we set the stage so seasonally it's a great time to be buying stocks, washout levels from a breath and just a decline standpoint, just all washout levels.

So great. Now, just because all of those things have happened doesn't mean the market's going to go up. So we want to be like, okay, like you guys were asking me, if the data suggests that that theory is wrong, you're going to change your mind. Well, yeah, obviously. that that theory is wrong, you're going to change your mind. Well, yeah, obviously. So the question is, what kind of data needs to show up? What are the things that we would need to see that would suggest that that bullish thesis is correct?

What would give you confidence? Yeah, that that's just wrong. And I think this is a great chart. This might be the best chart of the whole deck, in my opinion. You're looking at the financials retesting the peak from the great financial crisis highs. So in other words, last time we were here, Bear Stearns still existed. Lehman Brothers still existed.

Merrill Lynch. This was the high in financials before the great financial crisis. And we're back there. Arguably, arguably one of the most important prices of all time was the pre-great financial crisis high in financials. Am I wrong? Can I pause you? Well, I know what Mike's going to say. 13 years, bullshit. The market doesn't have that much memory. What I would say

that's maybe a little bit of nuance is it's all different stocks. The financials in 07 is not the same stocks. The financials now is like BlackRock. It's not Citibank. It's Berkshire Hathaway.

Yeah. I guess I agree that those prices are important, but I would also say like but why? At the index level, I think the prices are more important for the stocks than for the index because the index has gone – in financials specifically, there are companies that were important in the XLF that died. Citi? Yeah. I mean, well, Citi did like so much dilution that it's tiny. It's like a living dead. It's like a walking dead.

No, but you had companies in the XLF like Wachovia and Washington Mutual and AIG, and they're either a shell of their former self or they're gone. The guy with the tan. That's right. What's his name? Angelo Mozzillo. Countrywide. Countrywide.

But the companies that are big index weights in the financials now are not all the same. In fact, most of them are not the same. So to me, that would be like, well, what the hell does one thing have to do with another? Right. Talk me out of it. Yeah, well, I'm not really necessarily interested in any of those things. I'm interested in the fact that every time financials got to these levels, they sold off regardless of what was inside the index. So it's more from the components. Obviously, these are facts. You can't argue that

the components haven't changed, right? But every time we got up there, prices sold off, right? So that is demand absorbing overhead supply. Like it wasn't a coincidence, despite the fact that they're much different components. When we got to those 2007 highs back in 2018, financial stopped going up. And then we got right back there right before COVID and financial stopped going up.

We were about to break through there too. We did for a hot second and European banks did too. And then we failed quickly and then the rest fell apart. And then we broke out last year. And now we're back to the scene of the crime and you can make the same exact comparison what is that level for the xl uh 31 30 31 30 31 so okay so i'd buy that just because of like look how much activity takes place around that level just in the last few years i don't even need the 07. So like I see it even recently.

Yeah. But you're saying like that this level takes on an even added layer of importance. No question. Because of historically. Okay. No question. I buy that. Why are you showing it to me with the home construction index fund right below it? Because it looks exactly the same.

Number one. Number two, isn't it hilarious that the Home Construction Index Fund peaked the month it launched in 2006? Yes. Very well-timed. Hilarious. So anyway, we got back there in 2018, just like Financials did. Oh, that's inception for the ITB?

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Mike, you see this? Yeah, it launched right before the peak. And by the way, the other one did too. XHB launched within two weeks of this one. It also obviously peaked at the same time. So anyway, pre-COVID highs, same exact level. We broke out of there last year.

And here we are retesting the peak in the indexes of home construction before housing completely fell apart. Equally as important, I would argue, as financials in that cycle, right? Okay. So do these two things typically do the same thing? I mean, they're not. Home builders and banks are not. You know, they're all. Both sensitive.

They're consumer discretionaries, financials. They're going to move with the market. They're not going to move with staples. They're not going to move with utes, you know, energy. I'd buy that. Yeah. I think they're both rate sensitive. Yeah.

I think they're both economically cyclical. Sure. Okay. I'd buy that. Yep. And they look both rate sensitive. I think they're both economically cyclical. Okay, I'd buy that. And they look exactly the same. So gun to your head right now, as long as both of these are above support and holding,

then you have to be optimistic that they'll rally. The world is not coming to an end if these two indexes are above their prior cycle size from back in 07. Okay, I would buy that. The world is only going to be ending if these are below. And then it's over. Then anything can happen. I have no idea. But if we're below. And then, like, it's over. Then anything can happen. I have no idea.

But if we're above that, the world's not ending. Okay. Cut to, like, people in the streets eating each other's faces. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Zombies and stuff. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I feel better already. All right.

Next. Next chart. What a shit show. What a shit show. Honestly, blow your brains out. Wow. Wow. I mean.

Wow. Wow. If you're a f***ing gold bug after this year, I don't even know. We're looking at gold and silver miners relative to the S&P 500.

Both new all-time lows. Wow. All-time? Like all-time? Well, the ETFs, the GDX is like 15 years old or 16 and silver is like 12.

Who owns, do the gold miners look worse than gold or better? Newmont Mining is like the blue chip gold stock. That made a 52-week high like recently.

The market got cut in half in like three months. Hang on. Cut in half in three months now. This is very impressive. I was just thinking like who the hell is allocating to silver miners? Like who wants – who's the audience for SIL? It's a beta trade. It has $750 million in assets.

That's impressive. Because it's part of some people's asset allocation. Silver miners? It's how they get their... Oh, silver miners? Silver miners. Silver miners. SIL, not GDX.

Yeah. You've got to be some kind of a Canadian to be buying that thing. I can't... Right? GDX, I mean, that's... That's what the Canadians do, obviously. You're going to...

You know, like in California, they're going to buy more tech stocks. New Yorkers buy more bank stocks. GDX is a staple. More energy stocks are bought by the Texans. Silver miners are like the tech stocks of Canada. They f***ing love this s***. Believe me. I've been to the live events.

Wait, wait. Hold on. Hang on. I got to say something. Newmont Mining made an all-time high in- For a second. In April. Yeah.

And then got cut in half. Of this year. And then got cut in half in three months. Can you imagine- Look at this piece of junk. I'm familiar. Can you imagine- Josh, look at this.

Can you imagine your whole way of life is built around this idea that fiat dollars are the problem and only gold and silver will save us from inflation? fiat dollars are the problem and only gold and silver will save us the only things going on dude the dollar can't stop going up inflation can't stop going up and anything gold or silver is going to zero it's really it's really impressive how long it could be no it's interesting these aren't even like really directionally new mountain gold and gld look nothing alike i wouldn and GLD look nothing alike. I wouldn't say they look nothing alike. Newmont's great. You got a commodity that's

falling plus all the costs of running a public company. And labor disputes in foreign lands. What can go wrong? What's not to love? By the way, so with that being said, we've just completely abused the entire gold bug community. No, it's great.

No, fine. Yeah, I don't give a shit. It's working. Yeah, yeah. My point is, if the dollar hypothetically were to begin to fall, couldn't it be a kumbaya moment between the gold bugs, the stock market permables, and the crypto crazies like everybody wins? How does everyone win? The dollar falls. The dollar falls.

How is that good for gold? It's not bad for gold. It's not bad for gold. It's not bad for gold. Stocks, I think, will go up very much so if the dollar falls. So then gold is not an inflation hedge at all. But here's what I'll... Let's finish the thought, right? So let's just say that does happen. Dollar falls apart. Like I said, it's not bad for gold. But if you know that the dollar

is going to fall apart and you can pick any way to express that thesis in the market, is buying gold the way you're going to do it? No. Right. S&P. Right. Like,

you've shown us very clearly. Merge money. That's how I look at it. CEW. So, we could be in a scenario where gold,

where like us abusing the gold miners right now, like that is the bottom. That might just be the case. But, I think in that environment stocks are outperforming. Is there any,

like if you were to look at pull back the short- By the way, we're not abusing the gold miners. The market is. They're masochists. Reality is. It's not us. They're nihilists. That new all-time low is – my point is, dude.

It's three. Man. I think we're at like six. Let's get this off the screen before it infects everything. Okay. This is fascinating to me. So the central banks in Europe have been awoken. And if you look at German yields in like the last two weeks, it's like extraordinary what's going on.

And I never thought they would do it. But they like have no choice but to do it. I remember joking a couple years ago or last year that German yields had resistance at zero. Remember that? How funny that was? Yeah. Well, not anymore. Not anymore. All right. Now the resistance at zero. Remember that? How funny that was? Yeah. Well, not anymore. Not anymore.

All right. Now they're support at one. Walk us through what's going on here. These are 10-year yields for Germany, United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia, and everything's headed higher. Well, I mean, these are pretty important countries, I'd argue. And, you know, I get asked a lot about, JC, where do you think the U.S. 10-year yield is going to go as we push up against the 2018 highs because the U.S. 10-year yield is below that.

And I say, okay, well, let's look around the world, see what's happening out there. And they're all above the 2018 highs. Oh, yeah. Yeah, meaningfully. Right. And then I'm playing games. So if global markets are any kind of indicators to what's going to happen here in the States, it's hard for me to bet against rising rates. And then what does that mean?

JC, I don't trade bonds. I'm never going to trade a German Bund. Great, fine, don't. That's information because if interest rates are rising, what types of stocks do well in an environment that interest rates are rising? Is it growth stocks? Is it tech stocks?

No. Is it semiconductors? No. It's cyclicals, right? It's the value-oriented area. So I think for stock market investors, these charts are very important. The two-year is at a 15-year high.

Next chart, John. Boom. This is the chart of charts. Look at this Frankenstein chart on the two-year. What is this? All of these, really. The two-year yield is- What Frankenstein?

This is not normal. You have inversions across the curve. No, just forget it. I'm not even talking about the curve. Look at the two-year. Look at that. The two-year yield is three spot, four-two. The f***ing 30-year

is three spot, two-two. That's like as inverted as inversion goes. That is remarkable. And a lot of purists waiting for the tens in three months. And that's like the real thing. They already rolled. They were the last ones holding months. And that's like the real thing. That's like.

They already rolled. They were the ones, last ones holding up, but they already rolled a while ago. Right. That's like the Cam Harvey. That's like the real research. I think it's like nine out of nine times. The six month is 338. So the six month is well above the long-term yields as well.

Yeah. The yield curve's inverted. We know that. It's not anything new. It's been since April. Yeah. But now it's severe. Yeah, great. More highs for yields today. Yeah. The yield curve's inverted. We know that. It's not anything new. It's been since April. Yeah. But now it's severe. Yeah, great.

More highs for yields today. Great. What does that mean? That we're going to go into a bear market? Great. We've been in one. But stocks are going

out of the highs. Going out of the highs. I don't think it's a bear market signal. I think it's an economic signal. And it's not even a signal. A lot of people would argue it's actually causative.

Just thinking rationally, if you're a bank- No, you're right. What you just said, yeah, causatively, yeah thinking rationally, if you're a bank. No, you're right. What you just said, yeah, causally, yeah. Right, it's more than a signal. Why would you lend money out on a five-year term

if you're being paid more to not lend it out or you're being paid more in one year on the interest? Like, of course, that would stop you in your tracks for making loans.

But they're not the U.S. government. They've got spreads. Right. No, Josh is right. You make a good point. But for me, it's less about the why. I know, you know, I don't really know why. I don't really care. Maybe I'm not smart enough. For me, it's just very simple. The bottom line

is when we've seen the yield curve inverted in the past, yeah, ultimately, maybe we get a recession or not. But at that point, the market's already been under pressure for a while, right? We've already seen some of that. So is that true? Yeah.

Because didn't we have a yield curve inversion in 2019 at record highs for the S&P? We had it in 2019. It was August of 19, I think we got it. Okay, but 2019, the stock market went up 30%. So it was a little bit leading in that case. Yeah, sure. Now, you had COVID start a few months months later which i don't think anybody was expecting including the yield curve that might just be one of those curiosities of history well i remember being at a conference and being asked by a journalist like on video like what do you think

about the yield curve inverting and i was like well we didn't just wake up this morning and the yield curve was inverting you could see it like you know like it just happened that it inverted this morning but like it's you know you could see it it's year. Like, it just happened that it inverted this morning. But, like, it's, you know, you could see it. It's been in the works. Okay, that's true. But the stock market was not under pressure during that inversion. No, no, it was not. Stock market was on fire.

Yeah, because the dollar was weakening. But the tens minus the twos haven't been this inverted since 2000. Yeah, I mean, look, and the longer of a period of time they stay inverted, the more obvious it is that it's like not a – Look how deep it is. Yeah. It's deep. It's deep. It's like an untenable – like it can't continue that.

Forget about the depth of it. It can't continue that way. Unsustainable. Unsustainable. So what do you take away from this? I think that when you look at the rest of the world, you look at Canada, Aussie, right? They're all above their 2018 high. So like if you're asking me what I think about the bond market, where I think rates are going to go.

I think we'll follow. I'd be hard pressed to say not higher. What's the 2018 year high for the 10 year? Is it three and a half? Three and change. Yeah. Three, 10. For all intents and purposes, we're there.

So you think rates peak. 325, I think it was, actually. Rates peak, dollar rolls over, risk assets rally. The stock market just wants the bond market to not go crazy. Which it is. Which it has been, right? Of course, right? And that's a problem.

So as long as the bond market's not crashing, I think it's fine for stocks. As long as there's not crazy volatility in the bond market. Because we're talking about $120 trillion market. If it's having a heart attack, it's going to stocks. As long as there's not crazy volatility in the bond market. Because we're talking about a $120 trillion market. If it's having a heart attack, it's going to infiltrate other asset classes. And more importantly, I know you don't care about this, but it affects people's real lives. Mortgage rates, everything. Well, this is the main point to me. The charts of the bonds are the symptoms.

The cause is there's no such thing as sustainable high inflation. You could have stable low inflation, which I would argue is the environment that we've been in for 10 years. So you have low inflation and it's stable. And in that environment, there's business continuity. You could plan projects.

You could make investments. You can plan projects. You can make investments. You can hire people. You can price goods for sale. You can like conduct business. There's nothing more important for confidence than stable prices. Inflation above 5% is not stable. It might be stable. Like in other words, if inflation falls from 8% to 5% and then stays at 5%, that's not a win.

That's chaos. That's chaos. That's chaos. Anywhere above 5% and the longer it's above there, the more unstable it is. And you could make the same argument for deflation. There's no such thing as stable deflation. You can't have negative prices year after year. So we had a very stable situation. Now we have literal chaos in the real economy.

Thank God jobs are plentiful. And that's the one thing everyone's hanging their hat on. They may not be if revenue continues to take a hit. And the reason it's taking a hit is all the uncertainty being caused by high inflation. So like for me, what we're looking at here with yields is not driving anything other than maybe the stock market and sentiment. This is being driven by the actual chaos in the economy. What do you think about that? I mean, I don't know anything about any of that stuff.

Like for me, inflation and deflation and employment, all of those are implications of price movements that happened prior to any of those things, right? So I'll just focus on the first one, right? On actual price that we can act on. And then all of those things will happen, right? Like you said, and you're right. But I'm focused on price. And in this particular instance, as a stock market investor, right, I'm not trading these credit spreads. I'm not trading the yield curve, right? I'm not an institution. So, you know, he talks about how

this affects people's lives, dirtier mortgages. Oh, that's great and everything. But again, those are the implications. I'm not really interested in that. I'm interested in what the institutions that are driving these prices are actually doing. And if the bond market is crashing and rates are ripping, and literally the bond market is crashing, that's going to impact the stock market because they have positions over there that need to unwind because they're getting smoked in the bond market. By the way, same thing when the bond market's limit up. If the bond bond markets limit up and rates are crashing, that's also impacting the stock market. So it's more like a lack of volatility is what's going to be good for the stock market. Rates can go up. They just need to go up slowly. Yeah. What's going on right now around the world is insane. The market is now

closed, boys. And the Qs went positive on the day. We'll take it. Qs were positive. S&P up 30 basis points after being down 1% earlier. Hey, you got to start somewhere. September 1st, right? Higher low. Higher low. Starting with the new month strong. Higher low. Let's go. We're only down 2,000 down points in

two weeks. All right. What do we got next? We have... These are the... Pieces of shit. These are the gold miners for boomers, right? Oh my God, that's so great. Yeah. Verizon, AT&T. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Well, they used to be prized for their dividends

and then they started doing web content, I guess. I don't know what's going on. I wonder what happened to their shareholder base. They've got to be blown out, right? T-Mobile is kicking their ass. Hold on, slow down. We're gettingMobile is kicking their ass. Hold on. Slow down. We're getting there.

We're getting there. Hold on. I haven't seen your charts yet. All right. You know it's coming. You've done this a couple times already. I like it. I like it.

We hung on too long. Hold on. Hold on. Hold on. Verizon and AT&T. Just look at those charts. No man's land. Mess.

Horrible. They both paid. Wait. This is 25 years of flat stock prices. Granted, they pay 6% dividends. So this is price only. They pay 6% dividends each. Well, they better.

They better. Hold on. Go to the next one. Because T-Mobile doesn't pay any dividends. Bang. Bang. T-Mobile's up 800% in seven years. Since they merged with Metro PCS.

Sprint. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Sprint came later. Oh, okay. Got it. Right. So they have been very aggressive on pricing and not worrying about paying a dividend. I'm not going to get all fundamental, obviously.

But my understanding is they got all the prepaid plans. So I guess like all the drug dealers and stuff. Yes. Yeah. That's a good market to have. This is remarkable. Isn't it? This is total return, by the way.

So AT&T is up back to 14. AT&T is up 6%. T-Mobile is up 773%. That's incredible. May of 2013. The guy, John Legere, who orchestrated this, the guy who's always wearing pink, the CEO. Okay. No, he's the man though.

I'm sure. Yeah. He's the man. I once saw him. How do you know he's always wearing pink? That's his shtick. He wears the magenta, the brand color of every public appearance. Oh, wow.

That's hilarious. And honestly, this is a true story. I was at the Polo Bar on 57th Street, the Ralph Lauren place. I went once with you. I don't remember. And I think he was eating dinner with John Paulson, and he was wearing the f***ing pink. Yeah, yeah.

Like head to toe. He was wearing the magenta. And I don't know. That could be six years ago. Next chart. Five years ago. What is this? Oh, this is, all right.

T-Mobile. Still bullish. It's going from the lower left to the upper right. What's there not to like? Yeah, that's incredible. You know? It's going from the lower left to the upper right. What's there not to like? Yeah, that's incredible. You know? It looks like the opposite of gold miners, right?

Next. Hold on, hold on. No, it's a team. Who cares? What do you mean who cares? Tell me how many stocks you can name off the top of your head at all-time highs right now. Fine, fair point, fair point. Dude, Mike's attention span is like a child. No, I'm speaking on behalf of the audience.

Nobody gives a shit. I'm a half-an-audience. Do all-time highs. Hold on. Hold on, but just because it's there doesn't mean we're going to buy it. About $1.50. I'm the audience. I get it.

All right. Team Opal. You don't get it. What's the risk? You're not even paying attention. I'm not even kidding you. $150 United States dollars. If we're not above that, leave it alone.

Above that, we own it. Target at $2.25. That's a 50% trade right there. That's not nothing. That's all 50% trade right there. That's not nothing. That's all based on Fibonacci extensions? The pricing, the relative strength has nothing to do with Fibonacci. Dude, this is not going up 50%. If it is, I'll buy you something.

Next. It just went up 50% like in two months. It just went up 50%. Next. All right. What are we looking at? Indian stocks? This is the nifty 50 making new all-time highs

relative to the Dow Jones Industrial Line. Why is this happening? Because they're buying stocks in India more aggressively than they're buying them in the United States. No, it's like, that's it. That's it. Facts, no? Only.

You're going to argue with that? Nope, next. Hold on. Let's talk about this, because not only is India making new all-time highs relative to America, but just think about how shitty emerging markets have been. Yeah.

So when you put it in the emerging market, like, wow. Did you see what happened this week with the third richest man on earth? Did you see this? It's an Indian. Who is the third richest man on earth these days? I'm going to tell you who it is. These stocks still suck because they're pricing dollars. Can we...

Hold on. EPI and INDA still suck. His name is Gautam Adani. He's a college dropout from India who just became the third richest person in the whole world. His net worth is $137 billion. I hope his money's in dollars.

No, that is him. He has one of the biggest publicly traded companies in the Indian stock market. And this thing has just gone... That's a reliance guy. No, that is him. He has one of the biggest publicly traded companies in the Indian stock market and this thing has just gone... That's the Reliance guy. This thing just went vertical. He just passed...

He's behind... Bezos is $153 billion. Musk is $251 billion. He's right behind Musk. He's ahead of Gates. He's ahead of Buffett because they've given away a lot. And he just passed the guy from LVMH

dude you should see this guy's crib it's like 30 stories it's like 35 stories high it's like a high rise it's just his house it's got like helicopter pads I think they made him stop they didn't let him use the pads anymore

something happened I don't know but it is sick he's the Buffett of India he has a massive portfolio of companies in various industries, including ports, coal, and energy. He added $60 billion to his fortune year to date. What's his morning routine? So I'm saying,

but that's a big part of what we're looking at here. How many books does he read? How many books does he read before breakfast? He only became a billionaire in 2008. I feel like we're getting to the bottom of the barrel. You have no more charts. Hold on. So I'm just setting the stage, my friend.

Are we going to the market? So it's like, okay, guys, I live in America. I don't live in India. So what does this have to do with me? Well. Oh, that's a great bat, Nick. Killing it. Here's a nifty 50 making new all-time highs on a monthly closing basis.

How many indexes can you name that are doing that? The answer is zero because there aren't any. Dude, nobody gives a shit. We can't invest in the nifty 50 making new all-time highs on a monthly closing basis. How many indexes can you name that are doing that? The answer is zero because there aren't any. Dude, nobody gives a shit. We can't invest in the Nifty 50. We're U.S. investors. John, next chart. Do I have a currency hedge for this? Make my trip.

This is an ADR, $3.5 billion consumer discretionary. That's interesting. Pushing up against new highs. You know, you got a Kardashian bottom. Like, the whole thing is setting up right there. This is a travel stock in India? Consumer discretionary. M-M travel stock in India. Consumer discretion. MMYT.

You had my curiosity. Make my trip. MMYT hasn't broken out yet. And it just got long. All you had to do was show him a trade. Oh, this is so sloppy. If this thing breaks out, you buy it. You can't buy this.

Keep it on the, you know, you want to buy relative strength in this market. You want to be looking at stocks that don't look like the other ones. This is so sloppy. Wait. This is the only major stock market at an all-time high right now? If you price Japan in yen, it's also making new highs. Okay. Which I often do.

Yeah, the DXJ. If you own the DXJ, you're doing great because it's priced in yen, right? All right. Next chart. All right. Next chart. Oh, wow. This is where I'm interested. So people are telling me that energy is overbought. Energy is overextended.

We've seen the rally and all this stuff. I would argue it hasn't even started. Okay, I would argue that makes no sense. How about that? Well, he's taking it back to 07 or 2001. Where were we in summer of 2008? Where were we were in summer of 2008 where were you in the summer of 2008 not in a good place my friend you think if this if this breaks out this this could have a whole like if it's just starting this could have a whole bull run uh nobody would

believe for people that aren't watching jc how do i describe what he's doing right now he's doing like a shrug but it's like a combination shrug. Kiss my ass. Yeah, yeah. I kind of like it. As Americans, as investors, as humans, forget as investors, just as humans to go to work every day, to wake up every day

thinking that oil at $2.50 is out of the question. Oh no, I agree. I think it's a problem. I think energy is 4 out of the question. Oh, no. Not on the table. I think it's a problem. I think energy is 4% of the S&P 500. It's 0% of the NASDAQ 100. Yeah. Investors are not in energy.

Yeah. I would actually take it a step further. Put oil aside. Natural gas would be a bigger driver if you look at the stocks that make up the energy indexes. Actually, a bull market in natural gas would be even more impactful. And nobody's invested in that. You know who's invested in that?

Buffett. Like Oklahoma Thunder fans. You know how happy it makes me that you're actualing me about natural gas? No, I'm with you. I'm with you. We're on the same page. Remember we would argue about the oil-natural gas ratio? Yeah.

That's going to be the story this fall. Okay. Natural gas. So energy as a sector hasn't broken out. Next chart. Now, when you break down to the industry groups, we're still nowhere near those former highs, and we're still below the 2016, 2017, 2018 highs.

So the explorers and producers haven't broken out. And, John, next chart. Those have been dogs. This too. This is the worst. Oil Services is below the lows for most shoes. Schlumberger, Halliburton. Schlumberger, exactly.

Yep. Baker Hughes, just terrible. They give you all the downside of oil and like a third of the upside. Just terrible. Yeah. But we've seen some outperformance for similar reasons that we've seen the worst growth stocks bounce the most, right? It's the best stock in the S&P this year by a lot.

So Berkshire Hathaway has now bought half of this company. No. They bought 29% of the company. But the SEC now allows them to buy up to 50%. They got permission to go up. They got permission to go up to 50%. Yep. So Uncle Warren's been buying.

JC's been buying. You know, we're in. I'm actually in the Warrens personally myself. Uncle Warren's in both the Common and the Warrens. How much is the stock up this year? A lot. Is it the best stock in the S&P? I mean, it's a seven bagger off the lows.

Oh, my God. And the Warrens, forget about it. The Warrens don't expire until 27, I think. 28, maybe? Maybe 29? Something like that. Not for a while. So I own the IEO, which owns this,

but I don't own any of these producer names individually. Yeah. But this is the one everyone's trading. And Devin, Devin energy is the other one. Uncle Carl was in there cleaning everything up. And then he sold his shares to Warren, which is nice because Warren's like, yo, if Carl's been in there cleaning shit up,

how bad could it be? So then, you know, they have different objectives. So Carl's like, my work here is done, right? They're good. So then Warren steps in. This is a huge bet, though, that Berkshire is making on one natural gas, on one oil and gas. Two, next chart.

And Chevron. And Chevron. Yeah. And JC's been buying Chevron, too. Clean out. We're above 135. You stay long. I think it goes to 300. Yeah. I think you've got think it goes to 300. Yeah. I think you got a long way to go. And this, you got buybacks. You got dividends.

They've been paying dividends for, check my math, I think 35 years. They pay 3.6% currently. And they've been raising their – even when oil crashed, every year they kept raising their dividends. Just think about that. It's an aristocrat. It's a dividend aristocrat. It's a dividend aristocrat. Yeah, we have a – any – Because a lot of these oil and gas stocks stopped raising their dividends. Just think about that. It's an aristocrat. It's a dividend aristocrat. A lot of these oil and gas stocks

stopped raising their dividends and then started again. They never stopped. We have any tech stocks coming up? Michael wants to lose some money this summer. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Let's see. So that's Chevron. So here you go. You can argue this is tech. This is hot. Come on.

You can't own this name. Look how volatile that is. Ton of insider buying. I would say that you can own the name, and if you did, your money doubled in the last two months. So I think you can own it. It's so volatile. Yeah, all right. Would you wait for the next retest of this $70, I guess, support now?

I think you got it. Or would you just buy it? I think you got it. I mean, listen, you had a great entry against 70. All that former resistance, people that tell you technical analysis is voodoo. Here's example number 700. You're probably right, JC. I can't buy this. It's too volatile.

Yeah, that's okay. Don't buy it. You don't have to buy it. But I think just bigger picture, look at solar. You got a ton of insider buying coming here. If you're going to buy semis, I think you're better off in solar because they're basically semiconductors. So I would be looking to buy pullbacks in this. The relative strength is out of control.

New 10-year high? How many stocks do you know make 10-year highs? And the headline risk is all in your favor. Like the worst headlines you're going to read this fall are going to be about electricity rationing in France, in Germany, industrial production halted because they can't literally can't fire the plants or they're going to prioritize heating homes rather than making bullshit and all of that directionally like all that headline volatility is in your favor in the solar stocks like it's just it's going to be like every day another great headline for those names and there's a bunch of names i just used this one example but look at tan and phase energy and yeah Energy. T-A-N. Yeah, and Faze.

And Faze is obviously the best stock in the world, I think, depending on how you – but yeah. Solar is making new highs on a relative basis. Like in a market environment that stocks are under pressure, you want to look and see which stocks are not under pressure. That's why I showed you freaking India. That's why I showed you T-Mobile. That's why I showed you for solar. They don't look like the other ones. And solar is not an oil proxy. It's specific to electricity and the need to build more electricity infrastructure. But I'm not Mr. Fundamental, but is oil going up and natural gas going up a bad thing for solar?

No. Right. No, but right. But it's like a separate way of putting on the same trade. Yeah. Yeah, I agree. What else we got? Had to go there. Dude, I don't believe this market cap was ever $3 trillion.

Crypto. All right, well. I think there was a lot of leverage that we really hadn't considered. As opposed to the leverage in the stock market? Fine. Or bond market? Fine, but I think crypto is inherently built on leverage. All right.

And there was probably not $3 trillion actual U.S. dollars ever invested in any of this shit. All right. That's not controversial to you. I don't think it's controversial. I would just say it's not anything new. How is it different than the stock market? I don't know. It's extremely different than the stock market.

I don't think it is at all. Okay. Say more. Say more. Say more. Why is it not different? Well, first of all, I'm with Howard Linsen on the fact that these are just more growth stocks, probably more specifically software stocks. So they're securities?

I am not qualified, nor do I give a shit whether they are, whether they're not. Actually, I do because I actually borrowed against a portfolio and I'm not allowed to buy securities on my portfolio loan. So I bought a CryptoPunk instead. Okay. As long as you're staying whisked off. All right. Hold on.

So hold on. Go back quickly. So for me, I think it's important just if you're a crypto bull or maybe you're interested in investing in crypto or whatever, like if you have any at all interest in the subject, I think that it's vital for crypto in general to stay above the prior cycle's highs. Bitcoin above those late 2017 highs.

Ethereum needs to quickly get above those 2017 highs. We're looking at this in market cap terms, though. As opposed to what? I don't know, price? Price. Price in dollars? Price is market cap. Like T-Mobile is $177 billion in market

cap. Verizon is $172. It's the same thing. So this is showing that what exactly is it showing? It shows that we are still above the prior cycle's highs, which Bitcoin is doing also. It's total crypto market cap. Right. And then Bitcoin itself looks exactly like this too, by the way.

And it's also above the prior cycle's high. So Ethereum needs to do that quickly. What percentage of total crypto market cap is Bitcoin? Is it 60%? It's 40%. That's it? Okay. I would have thought more. Would you have thought more? Bitcoin is 40%, Ethereum's 20%,

and the rest is 40%. Okay. Alright, that makes sense. Yep. So it needs to stay above those levels. This looks very good. So this is hot. You like this one? This is the flippening. Yeah. This is Ethereum versus Bitcoin in like a ratio.

Ethereum looks way better. Ethereum is way stronger than Bitcoin. This is about to break out. Ethereum is way stronger than Bitcoin. I mean, you know, like, you know, I'm not one of these, like, you know, people are very emotional about these, you know, Ethereum, Maxis, Bitcoin. I mean, they're crazy. Like, I'm not one of those. You very emotional about these Ethereum, Maxis, Bitcoin they're crazy, I'm not one of those you guys know I don't give a shit

when I get asked, what do you think about the flippening well, I'm not going to bet against the flippening you look at a chart like this, I've seen a million of these in the past the flippening is a long way away we're halfway there this is price, not market cap we're halfway there

Ethereum needs to double relative to Bitcoin remember way. We're halfway there. This is price, not market cap. We're halfway there. It's a long way away. Ethereum needs to double relative to Bitcoin. Remember, wait, do you remember Bitcoin is gold, Ethereum is silver? Do you remember that? Was that a thing? No, that was a thing that an idiot tweeted once. I think it's more like, if I had to pick one of those things, I think it's gold

is, sorry, Bitcoin is gold, Ethereum is the internet. Right. I think it's gold is, I'm sorry, Bitcoin is gold. Ethereum is the internet. Right. I think it makes more sense than- Wait, wait. Ethereum is gold. Digital gold. No, Bitcoin is digital gold.

No, that makes more sense. Ethereum is the internet because you're building on it. Yes. You can't build on Bitcoin. Okay. Bitcoin is literally just a means of exchange.

Okay. What else we got? So I think that, I think if we, I think of, you know, the path of least resistance is higher. I don't have this trade on. I own Ethereum and I think if we, I think, you know, the path of least resistance is higher.

I don't have this trade on. I own Ethereum and I own- Wait, hold on. Price in Ethereum. Ethereum relative to Bitcoin, the path of least resistance is higher. I think so. I wouldn't bet against that. Yeah.

I wouldn't bet against that. I mean, I'm literally not betting against that, at least not right now. I see no reason to. I'm a big ETH guy. Are you? Only because, I don't know anything about technology. I'm a big ETH guy. Are you?

Only because I don't know anything about technology. Only because I like the idea that something that has productive value is worth something that's just like a store of value. But doesn't that in and of itself add value to the community to have that store of value? Not if it's as volatile as it is. No. There's no value at all. If something can go from being worth $70,000 to $19,000 in six months, it's not a store of value.

So it's failing. Bitcoin is failing at what it's supposed to do. No, but you're thinking about a long-term store of value. I'm specifically talking about a store of value. It could be for five seconds. I can transfer— That's what USDC is for. No, that is not. That exists.

Store of value is a dumb term in general. Yeah. But what if people say, no, no, no, I'm storing my money in Bitcoin? I don't think it's a dumb. That's f***ing dumb. I think my house, my house, I own my house. I think I'm not looking for monster appreciation. It's just a store of value.

That's your question, which is there's a house you love in Miami, right? Where do you like it? Star Island? What's the dream? What's the dream in Miami? Cocoa Plum. Okay. The house that you love, the

buy of a century, but you need this six-month bridge. You have to get out of your current house right now to sell it. And then you need six months just to hold that money somewhere. Yeah. Crypto is not... Erroneous. Erroneous. Crypto is not going to be the place.

We're not doing anything. Terrible story. Well, that is, store of value is a place that you could store value. How is that erroneous? Let me tell you. Six months?

Do words have no meaning? Those words have no meaning. Do you store a value not have to actually mean store value? No, you put them in three month bonds, whatever. That's not what we're talking about. And it's obvious

that you think the way you think. A Jewish white male from Long Island is how you're thinking right now. That's right. So hold on. By the way, a store of value is dumb. Hold on, hold on. It's a store of value.

It's a store of value. Stop, stop. Pretend for two seconds. Sounds 70%. Pretend for two seconds. What value is a store? Pretend for two seconds. You are not a white Jewish male from Long Island,

and you are perhaps uh an african from the bronx making money in america and needs to send that money to your family in nigeria and you're doing that on a weekly basis stable coin don't need bitcoin okay fine stable coin all right upload upload listen i'm with your example telling you what's happening all right i'm a rich i'm a rich businessman give me a good story i'm a rich businessman. Give me a good story. I'm a rich businessman from Venezuela. Okay? Irresistible to women. I have money in banks in Miami.

So far, this is like a true story that you know. Okay. Okay. Why the f*** would I store money in Bitcoin even if I couldn't have access to those banks? Somebody said you can no longer move money out of Venezuela into the United States, into a bank in Miami, but I still have access to a crypto account,

USDC. Great. Now I'm priced in dollars. Yeah. I have the stability. I don't have to wake up every day and be like, oh, I hope Pomp is bullish on Bitcoin this week or else all the value I've accumulated throughout my life

could be up in smoke. I don't have any of those concerns. So basically, the only store of value still is the dollar or the yen. And a digital version is pretty damn cool, especially if I'm locked out of a traditional banking system. Yeah. That's a store of value. Store of value.

It's a dumb term. Bitcoin is not a store of value. Okay. You're talking about your perspective, and I get that. No, I'm talking about math. Hold on. I agree with everything you're saying, by the way. I think I agree with everyone.

It's not a store of value. We're agreeing. It's not a store of value. This has nothing to do with you or me. What is actually happening is that Bitcoin is being used more than ever. Do the stable coins get put into that calculation of crypto market cap or are they considered something different? They're not in there. Okay.

All right. Interesting. Okay. All right. We're back on track. Chart back on. No, that's it. You know?

Yeah, no. So I wanted to talk about the flippening. I got a few charts. I got a few charts of my own. All right. Let's see the charts. I just have a few. Just have a few.

All right. All right. Let's see. I just want to talk about some gap fills that we've been saying. And we're going to get rapid. Wait, are you putting this Apple chart up? Yeah. All right. Go. I just want to talk about some gap fills that we've been seeing. And we're going to get rapid. Wait, are you putting this Apple chart up? Yeah. All right, go.

I just want to talk about some gap fills. We had really good earnings for a lot of these tech stocks. Amazon had a massive gap up after earnings that got filled. We'll just go through this quickly and then we'll talk about them. Next chart. Apple, same thing. Triple top. Filled the gap.

And I think it closed green today. Chart next. Wait, can we stay there? Hold on, we're almost done. Walmart, same deal. And then lastly, Disney. That's a gross gap fill in Disney. Gaps got filled, and now we're off to the races.

Can we go back to Apple, John? We're good? I mean, I think that all of those charts you presented present nice risk rewards. Like, if you want to be long against those lows, if you want to put on a risk reversal. What do you think of this? Sell naked puts. What do you think of apple struggle that 179

then struggle that 175 just now struggle that oh 172 like it's that it seems to be uh it seems to have lower highs on each of these big and these are big rallies making new relative highs all time On each of these big, and these are big rallies. But it's making new relative highs all time. That's true. Relative to the S&P. That's true. Still? Is that enough?

Is what enough? Is it enough to be overweight a stock because it's making highs relative to the S&P? Is that good enough? No, it's not good enough. I think that Apple is, if we are now entering year three of a bull market after that consolidation, if that's in fact the case, I would argue Apple's probably gonna underperform in that environment.

Technology is probably gonna underperform in that environment. Interest rates are going up. I think the outperformance is gonna come out of industrials, energy, some of the materials, you know, ex-gold miners and all that stuff, you know, some of the chemicals. I would be looking there, not so much Apple.

Like this could be dead money in a rally. People forget that. Yeah. It's huge. So it would be unlikely for it to go down, but it could also do nothing. Or underperform. It's always a third option.

Go up slower, underperform. I think that would be perfectly normal. I think that could definitely happen. You have any more charts? No, we're done. It's enough. So yeah, to your point, I like what you did there.

You had sort of gaps that were filled on this right now. And no, not all gaps need to be filled. But in this case, when these gaps- 60% of the time. Works every time. Yeah, right. You know, they're filling their gaps. You have key levels to trade off of.

If you want to trade against those lows, that makes a lot of sense to me. If you want to sell naked puts against those lows, that makes sense to me. If you want to put against those lows, that makes a lot of sense to me. If you want to sell naked puts against those lows, that makes sense to me. If you want to put on a risk reversal, that makes sense. If you take out those lows, all those bets are off. You unwind the trades immediately. I agree. Risk reward is definitely good to the long side. All these stocks closed green today after

opening down very, very much lower. Yeah. Hammers. Hanging men would be a bullish. This would be like a hammer because the Japanese say they're hammering at the bottom. I like it. There's also a lot of people that will have to chase a rally in like week three because just positioning is still not great.

Like for, you know, not set up for that. Year three. No, no, no. Like if we get a sustainable rally here and it continues, there'll be a lot of people that have to come in later higher. JC, do we want to talk about that breath thrust thing you did or are we done? We can talk about breath thrust.

Yeah, hell yeah. So Josh and I were having a debate. It wasn't a debate, but there's this guy, quantifiable, edge of quantifiable trader that did this thing showing that less than 15% of S&P 500 stocks

were above their 50-day moving average. That went to 90% in a 50-day window. Obviously, that means you're washed out, super breath thrust, super bullish, right? Okay. But then we had S&P hit a 50-day window. Obviously, that means you're washed out, super breath thrust, super bullish, right? Okay. But then we had SMB hit a 50-day low in like 20 seconds, something like that. So it was a breath thrust

and then a sharp retracement. And there's not a ton of that in history, but typically that's pretty bullish. Do you have any thoughts on the breath thrusts and the validation? So for me, it's less about the specific breath thrust, like in this case, 50-day, whatever. You know, you have the Marty Zweig breath thrust, like in this case, 50 day, whatever, you know, you have the Marty Zweig breath thrust, you have the new highs list expanding,

all of those things. For me, it's less about whether it's what specific thrust, momentum thrusts, what specifically happened and more so, are you getting a bunch of them or not? And when you do get a bunch of them, those are second inning indicators. Those are top of the third, bottom of the second. You know, they're not going to be pre-bull market, right? Obviously, mathematically. Pre-bull market, you get washout sentiment levels, washout breath levels.

And we had all those. You had all those, right? So those are the things you tend to see before the market bottoms. We did see those. So if the market bottomed, you had the stuff you see before. You have the stuff you see in the second inning. So if we're going to go on to the third and fourth and fifth innings, which is where the sector rotation comes in, further breadth expansion, right? You're not getting new 52-week highs expanding because we're so far from new 52-week highs. You're getting spikes in 21-day

highs, spikes in 63-day highs that we haven't seen in a year and a half. And to your earlier point, first, they have to stop going down. I would argue they haven't stopped going down yet. Which ones? Because you could probably name them on one hand. Yeah, but they're rolling again. It's tough. Well, almost none of them are making new lows.

Right. None of them are. No, we're way off those lows. Oh, you know what we haven't spoken about? Now there's much to say, but these pieces of junk, the cruise lines, like Carnival is right at the lows. Carnival is like Facebook, for whatever reason. Who goes on a cruise? No,

nobody. You must be kidding. Could you imagine? No. I would. Where are you going on a cruise? I've never been. I can't do it. Don't do a cruise. Don't do it. Take a place and go there. It's not for me. Last thing. This lawsuit against Michael Saylor.

What is this about? I mean, obviously, they're saying that he lives in D.C. but doesn't pay taxes there. And they seem to have wanted to do this in a very public way. Do you think they were trying to communicate with him privately and he was just blowing them off? Because he is kind of like a crypto libertarian.

So the D.C. attorney general tweeted, Today we're suing Michael Saylor, a billionaire tech executive who has lived in the district for more than a decade but has never paid any D.C. income taxes for tax fraud. We're also suing his company, MicroStrategy, for conspiring to help him evade taxes he legally owes on hundreds of millions of dollars he's earned while living in D.C. That's wild. Is the Bitcoin part of the tax evasion? Or it's just like a coincidence that... I don't think so. Well, they're assuming microstrategy.

What does microstrategy do besides buy Bitcoin? I don't know that... I think that he's a libertarian guy. I don't think he likes paying taxes. I think they're a software stock. I don't know what that has to do with Bitcoin. Well... Like 200 million of it is software. Yeah, yeah, yeah. They have like this

underlying software business that is not the reason why anyone's trading the stock anymore. Most of this is Bitcoin. I don't know. I feel like it's weird that the guy that's like the biggest proponent of Bitcoin. Is not paying taxes? That's not weird at all.

I guess it's not. No, that they're trying to make such a public example of him. Like I would imagine there are tax cases all the time. Most of them aren't tweeted by an attorney general. Think of something less surprising. They're probably like no coiners, you know, and they're just a little zelle of the coiners. They're probably like no-coiners, you know, and they're just little zell of the coiners. Or this is like such a huge dollar amount that they can really make an example out of somebody that's like a flat, like flouting the law. I don't know. So anyway.

Did he respond? I don't know. Did you see how they figured out that he was there long periods of time despite claiming to not live there? Chipotle receipts. He has multiple yachts docked in in georgetown uh throughout the year and multiple you know i have that problem all the time wait what does that prove they're saying they're using that as part of their argument that they know he's there more than he's saying he is so he's saying he's there less than six months therefore does not owe dc what jurisdiction is

he paying taxes to uh maybe flor? What if he takes the yacht out and sleeps in the yacht on the ocean? He's not in D.C. Would you call Apple a store of value? Dude, they don't screw around with that stuff. Pretending you live in one state, they really don't screw around with that stuff. Like all these people that are like,

oh, I'm going to get a second residence in Florida. What do I want to pay the taxes for? It's like, dude, you better move your utility bills there and really set that up. You can't just own an apartment, not live there, and say that you live in Florida. They do not screw around with that sort of thing. New York State does not.

New York State is watching its tax base flee the state as it is. Store value is a dumb term. That's my final – All right. So you're with me then. It's just a dumb term. I'm bullish on Bitcoin long term, but I would never say it's a store of value. But you're saying erroneous.

It's not erroneous. I'm saying literally, by definition, something with this level of volatility. I agree. Unless words have no meaning at all. I do agree. It is a store of value. No, it's not. It is not the store of value.

Poorly functioning store of value. Fine. It's a speculative asset like everything else. It's a store of value that is too volatile for Josh. Great. Fine! It's a speculative asset. Like everything else. It's a store of value that is too volatile for Josh. Great. No, it's a speculative asset. Come on. Fine! It's not a store of value. If we're saying something's a store of value, there has to be like an upside

limit. Is T-Mobile a store of value? No, because there's an underlying business. Just like any stocks. Bitcoin's not a business. No, no, no. What do you mean? Come on. My point is there's nothing to it. It's like gold. It doesn't do anything. It's not a business. No, no, no. What do you mean? Come on. My point is there's nothing to it.

It's like gold. It doesn't do anything. It's just a rock. Bitcoin doesn't do anything. It's just a digital coin. You can't do anything. You can't build anything. It's literally just a store of value.

If that doesn't make something a store of value, I don't do anything. I'm like a rock. Am I a store of value? My point is all of these things are store of value. That's all that it is. It doesn't do anything else. That's my point. How about this? If you all that it is. It doesn't do anything else. That's my point. How about this? If you want to call it... It doesn't do anything else.

If you say, I'm investing in Bitcoin because it's a store of value, fine, say whatever you want. But don't tell me it's a store of value. This has nothing to do with investing. Dude, I take a... Hold on. What are we talking about here? Hold on. I feel like this show's over. Hold on. I wade knee-deep into a river. I pick up a gigantic rock. I say, JC, this doesn't do anything.

It's not a business. It doesn't move. It doesn't have cash flow. It's a store of value. You're like, yeah, you're right. It probably is. Well, if it's a diamond, then yes. No, it's not a diamond.

It's a frigging stone. Okay, but nobody else cares about that stone unless it's a diamond. And in which case, the diamond is a store of value. It doesn't do anything. It's not a company. Let's do something. It's used in jewelry. Dunk and wrap it up. We've been having, the diamond is a store of value. It doesn't do anything. It's not a company. It does do something. It's used in jewelry. Dunk and wrap it up.

We've been having way dumber conversations for a long time. Okay, the diamond does something. All right, favorites. Favorites. And then we're going for dinner. Oh, wait a minute. We spoke about this briefly. You said you're involved in industry.

What episode are you on? I think I'm on season one, episode seven. Oh, what? No, I'm not in as far as you. Oh. Well, it's only been two seasons, right? I thought you were in season two. What are you talking about?

Oh. Industry. You watch the show? It's good. It's good. What's it about? It's like a British investment bank. I think it's supposed to be Barclays.

It's first year investment bankers. But it's like kids getting their first job there. Yeah. And then the adults who supervise them. It's super graphic and drugs and sex. It's HBO. It's intense. Yeah.

But it's a lot. You'd be into it. It's a little bit of trading. It's a little bit of market. It's a lot. It's good. Uh, they're going for like realism.

It's not like jokey, you know, plots like zany, you know, trade. It's real. It's good. All right.

Uh, favorites, Michael, you go first. What do you got? You go first. Okay. Umites. Michael, you go first. What do you got? You go first. Okay. Speaking of Meb Faber, he did this really great podcast episode with Rob Arnott and Cam Harvey specifically about the yield curve.

And Cam Harvey is like the godfather of the yield curve indicator. So he's basically like the first person in the 1980s to identify that pattern in the yield curve and what happens after. And there had been four recessions caused by it up until then. Obviously, it's 30-something years later, and there have now been nine or ten. And they have a really great debate about how it's being looked at, how it's being abused in the media, et cetera. And Meb does a great job. And Meb will be at Future Proof. So, shouts out to Meb.

Also, I'm sure you heard the new DJ Khaled. I saw a little bit of it. I haven't seen the whole thing. I won't ruin a few, but the Jay-Z appearance on track two is probably going to go down in history as one of the most legendary things he's ever done. I saw it on the spotify i gotta check it out they got jay-z rick ross nice and uh on one track and jay-z just goes crazy and uh the whole record's good so highly recommend god did by dj khaled if you've been

living under a rock you haven't seen this seen this, but it's one of the – I think it's better than anything Khaled's put out in years. So anyway, all right. That's all I got. What do you got? What are you watching? Anything good? Football season's starting this weekend.

Nothing gets me more stoked, you know, historically speaking. Wait, you mean college football? Yeah, the best kind of football is college football. You like college football more than you like the NFL? Obviously. Who are you guys? He's a Canes fan. Yeah, only people in the Northeast don't get that.

The rest of the country knows that college football is better. Also, your pro team has been the Dolphins all these years. Yeah, but even if it was, it doesn't matter who my pro team was. In the Northeast, people just don't care about college football. The rest of the country does. We have no teams here. No, I get why. If you lived in Green Bay, though, you wouldn't be going crazy over Badgers football.

You'd be a Packers fan. What do you mean? Unless I went to Wisconsin, of course. Yeah, what are you talking about? All right, all right. Of course. Are you kidding me? We'll give it to you.

Come on. Yeah, so football season. So the Miami Hurricanes got the best quarterback in the country from Connecticut. And we've got the Miami Dolphins. We have a quarterback for the Hurricanes, Van Dyke, and for the Dolphins. We have a quarterback. And the Dolphins and the Hurricanes, we're not used to having good quarterbacks, and now both teams do.

So I'm pretty stoked about that. What's the Dolphins' record going to be this year? 5-12. 12-5. 5-12. 5-12. Is that based on your schedule? Actually, no.

No, they can be better. I don't know what their schedule looks like. By the way, Tua is 3-0 against Belichick, FYI. And he's the most accurate passer in the NFL. Stop. Cut his mic. And we've got the weapons. Stop.

Stop. As long as the offensive line is good. You know where Tua is really unpopular? He has a noodle on. What are you talking about? Nobody drafts this guy. We do not have fantasy. He's very good at throwing seven-yard crossing.

People still play fantasy? Is that still a thing? Nobody will draft this guy on a fantasy team. Who, Tua? Yeah. Okay, don't. No, I'm just saying. Doesn't matter.

He's going to throw like five yard slants to the wide receivers and they're going to run for 80 and he's going to get all 80 yards. So there's two good documentaries on Netflix. Wait, is one of them on HBO?

One is on Tim Donahue. I haven't finished it on the ref that was like f***ing shut up in the NBA. Just totally throwing games. And the other one, they did one on N1 remember that? remember N1

the remix tape like the street tapes yeah yeah I saw that one that was great I don't know whatever happened I remember N1 just like disappeared or just like died

I don't know if it just ran its course I think they started making clothes and shoes I wore the sneakers they sucked but it got right it got like shitty no because after like four seasons

it's like alright we got it same stuff over like shitty. No, because after like four seasons, it's like, all right, we got it. Same stuff. No, but the other thing that happened with that, that always happens with everything,

when it was like, when it was like something that was cool and you had to like, kind of, you had to kind of like be in the community that it was coming out of and that gave it cachet. And then when it was like shitty $12 sweatpants

at every like mall in America, it loses the cool factor. Oh yeah, they were definitely like- They milked it. They were like TJ Maxx $12 shorts. Because it started out as like underground VHS tapes being exchanged. And this was before YouTube.

It was before YouTube. Remember Rafe Austin? Yes. Yeah, of course. And then it was Hot Sauce. Yeah. All those guys. Right, there was no YouTube.

And these are clips that- It's the equivalent of going viral in the VHS era. It was very cool. It was very cool. But then they milked, they cashed in and they made it corny. And then, you know, these things run its course. Great doc though. Hold on. So one more.

Mickey Mantle rookie card just went for 12 million. The original NFT. Make it moves. That was like by- Did that go to a single buyer? Yeah. That was by far the biggest sale. I thought the previous...

Honest Wagner went for like $9 or something. Yeah, this was more than the Honest Wagner. It went by a lot. Do we know who bought or sold it? Probably can find it. You know the seller. The seller owned it since like 1980. He bought it for $50,000, maybe 1990.

Wow. Oh, my God. Oh, wait. Did I make that up? Was it King Griffin who bought it? No. He wouldn't dare. Stop, Duncan. Stop stirring up trouble. I. Oh, wait. Did I make that up? Was it King Griffin that bought it? No. He wouldn't dare. Stop, Duncan.

Stop stirring up trouble. I like that, Duncan. I like Duncan stepping in there. I thought it was funny. But the bidder is, it's like a silent bidder. Yeah, yeah. He bought it in 1991. I was right.

He bought it in 1991 for $50,000. It's Anthony Giordano, a waste management businessman from New Jersey. Anthony Giordano bought the for 12 million bucks. Waste management. No, he was a seller. He bought it in 1991 for 50 grand. Okay. Alright. I'm waiting to see like one of these DAOs

buy a card for like crazy money. Like one of these groups of people. Like I feel like that's what's going to come next. Yeah, like a rally road to a DAO. Anonymous buyer. So it could be King Griffin. All right. Hey, did you have fun?

Always. Always. I'm ready to eat. I was hungry. You hungry? I was starving. Yeah, yeah, yeah. How many?

We have a lot of bleeps to do. Oh, let me see this. Throw this in the water. How many f**ks are you allowed to have in one episode? Well, you just took our last one. All right. Listen up. That is awesome.

New in the merch store, the compound store, idoneshop.com. You guys asked for this. You guys... Wow! Look at that! Chart on, John. Look at this. Wow! That's really nice. So for those of you who have heard Michael or Ben or me

or any of our guests say, chart on. Finally, we did the shirt for you guys. This is available now? It is. And look at this material. It's premium. This is the premium t-shirt. We didn't screw around with this one.

Really nice design. And I think this is going to be a big seller. We have any fun reviews? Here. Do I get one? That's yours. Hell yeah! It's the wrong size.

I'll get you the right size. What is that? I wear extra small. This is double XL. It's too big. Too big? Yeah's yours. Hell yeah. It's the wrong size. I'll get you the right size. What is that? I wear extra small. This is double XL. It's too big. Too big? Yeah. Okay.

Are you sure? Double XL? I'll be swimming in that shit. Are you sure? All right. We'll get you an XL. Order JC and XL. All right, guys.

Thanks so much for listening this week. We love you. We miss you when we're not here. We're going to be back next Tuesday after Labor Day. So everyone have a great weekend. Enjoy the holiday. Enjoy the end of summer. Thanks to JC.

Check out allstarcharts.com. And remember, remember, idonshop.com for the latest in financial blogger fashion. What is that? It's me yelling at JC. Oh, it's beautiful. It's a beautiful thing. All right.

Good night, guys. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.

Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.

Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.

Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.

Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.

Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.

Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.

Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.

Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. It could also be, is Josh a store of value?