The Compound and Friends - The Craziest Week Ever (EP.187)

Episode Date: April 11, 2025

On episode 187 of The Compound and Friends, Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown are joined by Jenny Van Leeuwen Harrington, Chief Executive Officer of Gilman Hill Asset Management to discuss: Trump vs the bond market, navigating a stock market crash, the Super Bowl of insider trading, Jenny's favorite dividend stocks, and much more! This episode is sponsored by Innovator ETFs. To learn more about Innovator's buffered ETF offerings, visit: innovatoretfs.com Pick up Jenny's book: Dividend Investing: Dependable Income to Navigate All Market Environments Sign up for The Compound Newsletter and never miss out: thecompoundnews.com/subscribe Instagram: instagram.com/thecompoundnews Twitter: twitter.com/thecompoundnews LinkedIn: linkedin.com/company/the-compound-media/ TikTok: tiktok.com/@thecompoundnews Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Josh Brown are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. The Compound Media, Incorporated, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information. Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here: https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

You were on one of the first shows we ever did in 2021. It was you and Caleb Silver. You remember? Absolutely. He brought you a record. Can you wait? Does it blow your mind that it was that long ago? Yeah, it does.

I can't believe it. It blows Michael's even more, right? Like four years ago? Yeah. It's crazy. We were so young. I know. I honestly thought it had been a year, like ish.

We were just watching the footage and it feels like it's a million years ago, but it's not. It's hard to describe the passage of time is one of these crazy things. I don't really know what I'm going with that, but four years is a long time. You know how I measure time? How old my kids are. So whenever somebody says a year, I immediately flash to how old was Tara, how old was Justin. And that's like the way that I process like, oh my God, that was so long ago.

Yeah, I think all parents do that. Right. So in 2021, I had a 15 year old daughter and a 12 year old son. Now my son's a sophomore in high school. My daughter's already gone. She's in college. So sad. So, wow.

You know what I was telling a friend this morning? You know how I measure my level of anxiety around the market? Is by if I'm playing Spelling Bee online or not. Oh, if you're like actively looking for distractions. No, quite the opposite. When I have any mental capacity, I play Spelling Bee. So I haven't played Spelling Bee since January 20th.

What's spelling big? It's that little thing on the New York Times app. Oh, yeah, yeah where it's kind of like boggle You know they give you a bunch of letters But I for the better part of a year played spelling be religiously didn't play it from probably October through Christmas Okay round Christmas started playing it again, and then I realized recently. I've ceased playing spelling bee at least since the inauguration. There's just been so much. There's no time. There's no time. And there's no mental bandwidth left to do anything after this.

No. I was writing our quarterly client letter and by the way, AI is fabulous. You know, you ask Grok how many executive orders have there been in the last two months and 10 days, 102. Here they are if you want to read about it. Is that the AI that you, that's your go-to, GROK? Interestingly, no. We're toggling between a lot of different ones. We're using Claude, GROK, ChatGPT, and shoot, what's the other one?

Oh, and Gemini, and then my analyst is using one of the, I think it's called Deep Research. So we're playing around and seeing what's best for what. But 102 executive orders in two months and 10 days and 21 cabinet appointments, like there's no room for spelling bee. It's so sad. Josh, yesterday when I was telling you

how much money that person made, I just Googled, or Googled, I chatted with you, excuse me, how many shares of XYZ does this person own? Yeah. Immediately. Right, because if you Google it, you'll get a link. You'll get a link. And then you get to click the link

and maybe it has the answer, maybe it doesn't. Yeah. That's over. Yeah, that's over. Yeah, it's over. It's so, it's so over. You know what I used Brock for last week? It was amazing. So I started researching Microchip, right?

Microchip showed up on my screen for the first time. MCHP. MCHP. I owned this way back, showed up last week with a foreign change yield because it got the wind knocked out of it. And I'm like, look, I need to do research on this. Right off the bat, we find out the week before they did a convertible preferred. And I'm always rusty on my convertible preferred math.

Like, I can go back, I can recreate it, but it takes me a while to get back into the groove. So I put into Grok, you know, with the shares trading at with microchip at 40 and microchip preferred P at 43. Remind me of the convert math. Is this a good buy here? Unbelievable. And a full explanation, you know, there's the summary, there's the bottom line.

A full explanation. So what is that calculation telling you as an investor? It's basically telling you like, yeah, you're getting a decent price right now. At this point, it's got close to one for one upside ratio with the common. If you were to buy the convertible preferred versus buying the common.

Right, right. And it reminds you of things like on the common you have risk to the dividend, on the convertible preferred you don't. So if you hold it until this convert matures, I think that was in 2029, you'll get at least this much from the income and you have equity like upside.

But it was amazing. It was like having a $450,000 a year analyst sitting at the ready for at the ready for me to use to do this math. And I didn't need to do it myself. And you feel confident that it's right? Interestingly, not 100%. So then I asked my analyst, can you double check Grok's work? He said, hey, they're using the it's using the wrong conversion ratio here. He went back and said, put in the correct conversion ratio. You know, bam, it's done. So someday you won't have to double check

because you'll just know, but we're not there yet. You know, that's a bigger question. Do you think there's ever a time where we shouldn't double check? Shouldn't or not feel the need to is probably two different things. I think that's right. Because there will come a time

where you will have run the same search or the same calculation. there will come a time where you've done it so many times and the answer's been right so many times. Excuse me, are you sending physical notes to John? Yes, because I didn't want to interrupt the show and say, can I get the Wi-Fi password? That's amazing.

Oh, thanks. Wait, Josh knows. Wait, are you good? We're not in a rush. Do you have the Wi-Fi password? No, no, I just got it now. I was like in middle school. I'm sorry, but Josh knows, by the way,

I write in notes during the half hour. Yeah, no, it's not distracting at all. I love it. I wish we could have more, I just got it now. I was like in middle school. Sorry, but Josh knows, by the way, I write him notes during the half hour. Yeah, no, it's not distracting at all, I love it. Yeah. I wish we knew that more, I meant to say. Sometimes if he doesn't respond fast enough, then I email him and elbow him. But yeah, I'm a big note passer during the show, aren't I? You are, that's okay.

Doesn't seem like Scott's distracted. But you know what, on that question, here's a good point. In prepping for this show, all right, I'll jump to the end, but one of the points that I wanted to make was that we've been in such a distorted time for the past five and 10 years with the MAG-7 that it makes it look like

there's only one investable index, right? So I asked Brock, I said, can you please tell me from 1950 until 2015, what did the S&P 500 return? What did small cap return? What did value return? What did mid cap return? And all value return? What did mid cap return? And all three came back at just about 12%, like 11.2% for S&P.

I think it was 12.5% for mid cap for value. And then I sent it to my team and said, can you please sanity check this? And even with Grok saying, here are the sources we used, they went, I always say his name wrong, but they went to Damodaran's site on NYU. Oswald. Oswald at the Motorin. Thank you. So they went to Damodaran's site on NYU. Oswald at the Motorin.

Thank you. So they went to his data on NYU and they're like, we can't double check this, but it feels right to all of us. Close enough. Good enough. Close enough. But it's to your point. Like at what point do you just say, I know that's right versus, hey, let's give it a

double check. Yeah, we're all reliant on the CRISP database or S&P data or whatever. And I don't know. I feel like it's not going to be that long before we just say, this is probably right. You know what? And it's the same as having a colleague, right? When you have a new colleague, you double check their work for a year and then you start to say, hey, they're right 99% of the time.

I think that's it. I think that's it. But it's pretty extraordinary. I mean, the amount of time it's saving. And Josh, you know, I'm pretty long-winded, right? Yes. So you'll like what I'm saying. We both are. That's why, the amount of time it's saving. And Josh, you know I'm pretty long-winded, right? Yes. So you'll like what I'm... We both are.

Right? That's why we love each other. That's right. So birds of a feather. So I've been using it for client writing. And I'll say things like, can you help me explain the midstream energy space in three sentences or less? Because I can explain the midstream energy space.

But not in three sentences. Not in three sentences. That's a good point. You're not outsourcing your thinking to it. You're using it for a more concise way to say things. And I think that's appreciated on the part of the reader. Like, obviously. Totally.

I agree. How we doing? Looking good. Yeah? All right, we've got 35 pages and a million charts to go to okay. Let's get the show started Yeah, let's let's get this thing going words are Roddy Mon. Let's get this shit started Friends episode 187 whoa whoa whoa stop the clock. Here's a word from our sponsor Today's show is brought to you by innovator ETFs. One of the better calls of

my career, Josh, was in 2018, I believe it was, Ben and I had Bruce Bond on Animal Spirits to talk about these new buffered ETFs. I remember. And we immediately identified, whoa, this is going to be a new category unto itself. Yeah, and it turned out that way. So if you're worried about things like tariffs right now, political uncertainty, doge, market volatility, this company, Innovator, has this suite of ETFs that gives you a little bit, I don't want to say more certainty about what will happen, but a little bit more of a defined

risk versus return profile. They define the range of outcomes and it's super transparent because there are a lot of moving parts, but you go to the website, you see the buffers you see the levels go to innovator ETFs calm to learn more innovator ETFs calm welcome to the compound and friends all opinions expressed by Josh Brown Michael Welcome to The Compound and Friends. All opinions expressed by Josh Brown, Michael Batnick, and their castmates are solely their own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any

investment decisions. Clients of Ritholtz Wealth Management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. Oh, 187. Like Snoop Dogg. Jenny, you got that reference or not really? No. You didn't grow up in the hip hop community the way that I did, I don't think. No, I just think I'm pop culturally illiterate and always have been kind of sad. All right. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the best investing podcast in the world. Welcome to the best investing podcast in the world. My name is Downtown Josh Brown for first time listeners, viewers with me today, as always,

the co-host of the show, Mr. Michael Batnick. Hello, hello. Nicole's here, John's here, Duncan's here. Shout out to everybody listening. We appreciate you. We have royalty in the house today. This is a repeat guest on The Compound and Friends. One of the smartest people in all of financial media, one of my favorite people I've ever met on Wall Street. Someone who just absolutely lights it up every time we appear on television together and in person, I would add.

Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome Jenny Van Leeuwen Harrington. Jenny is the chief executive officer of Gilman Hill Asset Management, an income focused boutique investment management firm. investment management firm. Jenny serves as portfolio manager of the firm's flagship equity income strategy, which she created and has managed since inception prior to joining Gilman Hill. In 2006, she was a vice president at Neuberger Berman and then associate and analyst in the equities and investment management divisions at Goldman Sachs. She is also the heiress to the Van Lewin Ice Cream Fortune. Right, right. I mean, it's sort of true. I don't think so.

You're not technically an heiress. No. And it's not yet a fortune, but it will be. It could be. Yeah, why are you working so hard? Because it's my brother. I know, but still. This is why I brought you guys 18 pints.

I met you, I met you brother. You guys are, You guys are tight. He's the best. What if you just said, you know what, this is too stressful, I've been doing it too long, what can I do with the ice cream company? Well, like, how would he probably be thrilled? I don't know. He's so creative.

I'm so uncreative. I'd probably be like, I don't know, some nag in the finance department. But they have those people. I know, but it's, you know, I'm just saying. I know, it'd be fun. You know what I'd like to be, but it wouldn't be a lot? Stop torturing yourself. I'd like to be a taste tester.

Oh well, that's my job. I'm an excellent palate. Don't muscle in on my turf. We love Van Leeuwen ice cream, and whenever I see it, I take a picture of it for you, right? Yep, I love it. Yeah, it's the best. All right, let's start off with Donald Trump,

because every conversation, everywhere on earth, every subject, every topic inevitably leads to Donald Trump these days. Kind of unavoidable. This was quite a week for Donald Trump. This is something special. So just to back up, the tariffs went on for 13 hours. As the tariffs were going on Tuesday night, they're going to go on Wednesday 12 a.m. As they're about to go on, the bond market literally starts to blow up overnight.

There's talk that the Fed might have to intervene. There's talk that maybe Japan is selling Treasuries, maybe China, maybe both. Who else is selling? How much higher will the yield go? How disorderly is fixed income about to get, everyone's completely freaked out, the market had just crashed, the stock market just crashed. So the tariffs go on at midnight and by one o'clock the next day, they're taken off. So it's 13 hours. Now the Chinese tariffs did not come off. So this is the reciprocal tariffs and they're not off their baseline to 10% versus significantly

more severe. But the narrative, Jenny, is now Trump linked. And I mean, no one's even, other than like Trump people, everyone kind of agrees like it was some combination and we'll talk about what you think went on. Some combination of the bond market and commentary from CEOs and maybe some gentle nudging from Scott Bessent and whatever ended up happening, he came out and said, all right, we're going to lower the reciprocal rate.

We're going to add more tariffs to China, but we're going to make 75 deals with 75 countries. I would point out the USMCA was renegotiated over the course of two years. So making 75 deals with 75 countries sounds like it could take, I don't know, a century. 75 years. But it's fine. But so that's where we are. And what ended up happening, and we're recording this on Thursday afternoon We had the third biggest one day return for the s&p 500 since 1990 second biggest nasdaq day Since the invention of the nasdaq

And uh, I guess the first question is what do you think happened? Uh, why'd he reverse course? Yeah, like what what do you what do you think went on? What was like or or was it just this confluence of things where he just realized this is better for me to pull it back? So if you think back, you and I were on the show together on Tuesday, right? And on Tuesday, we were talking. You said, is anyone going to play chicken with Trump on this? And remember, I jokingly said, I will.

I feel like when people threaten, it almost felt like a parent threatening, right? And you're very feisty. Right, right. But you know, I'm going to take your car away. You're going to be grounded. How many times do parents actually make good on that? And it feels like that. This doesn't feel like a professional,

grown-up, serious negotiation. It felt very much to me like it was a threat. And so my odds were on that something was going to change because he behaves frankly, I think like an out of control parent more than a strategic tactician. Oh, he's the parent in your metaphor. He's not the child.

No, no, he's the parent who's threatening, who's not gonna carry. Who's the child? Us? We're the kids. So that's why I was like, I'm betting on that threat not being there. But I threatening, who's not going to carry. Who's the child? Us? We? We're the kids. Oh, I see. So that's why I was like, you know, I'm betting on that threat not being there. But I think so here's what, you know, he saw. He saw that the longer the courage went on, the more collateral damage was going to be done.

He knows as well as we do that in a year from now, we're going to be heating up on midterm campaign campaigns, and the Republicans are going to lose the House and Senate if we're anywhere near where we are today. And that collateral damage was piling up fast. And then there was this mosaic of noise from from people out there. And I think, you know, when we look at Trump, probably the strongest thing there is his survival instinct, like the dude knows how to survive. Yeah, right. And I think survival instinct kicked in. It's like, I don't think it was just Besant. You know, I think it was a whole bunch of stuff

where he's, you know, something in him said, if I'm going to survive, this moment has to change. I totally agree with you. I don't think that it's one thing. I don't think it was just Besant. I don't think it was just the bottom market. I don't think it was just Jamie Dimon. But to extend your analogy, I think he said to the child,

all right, no more food. Yeah. No more food, you're not eating anymore. And the child in the market said, well, you have to feed me. What are you talking about? Empty is an empty threat. He said, OK, but fine. Now maybe you're going to skip lunch.

And so there's still going to be damage from the threat, but it's obviously not as ridiculous as no food forever. Right. And I could take that just a little bit more too, which is, you know, as a parent, Josh, right, how we start off talking. It's easy to threaten. It's a real pain in the neck to have your kid grounded at home for two weeks. Yeah, it's a punishment for the parent.

It's a total punishment for the parent. So enacting those tariffs would have been, you know, Wednesday or whatever day it was, it's hard to keep track of to our conversation, Michael, it's hard to keep track of the year, much less the day lately. So I think it was just going to be harder to keep track of all those tariffs, harder to manage the noise, harder to manage the criticism. And like a parent, he's like, yeah, right. Forget it. You're not grounded. Also harder to negotiate when your own stock market and bond market are both tanking and the dollar is falling.

Yeah, you got nothing. You're like each day you're negotiating from a weaker place, which like very obviously. John, can we do this rolling three day basis point change in the 10 year treasury? Yes, Trump doesn't care necessarily about the stock market. He's made that pretty clear. But he is a real estate guy. He understands borrowing costs. He knows that credit and liquidity are the backbone to an entire functioning system.

And when you see something like this, a three day gain that is almost off the charts, that is not healthy. Right. Yeah. I mean, this is just eyeballing it. Look at other instances of the 10 year smashing through these levels. But hold on, but Josh, in 2022, like when we did this, we went from like half a percent up to a hundred basis points.

This is bad. We went from four to four or five. And so this idea that like, Besson said, he and I had a long talk. This was a strategy all along. To your point, Jenny, he goes on instincts. He said to the Wall Street Journal, he said he had been thinking about pausing towers over the last few days, adding, it probably It probably came together early this morning fairly early this morning He said he didn't consult with lawyers for the wording of his announcement and instead relied on input from best in at Lutnick

Quote we wrote it up from our hearts We don't want to hurt countries that don't need to be hurt and they what they all want to negotiate So I don't know that it was like a master plan, but I do believe that this was his like for like Plan here's the timeline. Besant flew down on Sunday, flew down to Mar-a-Lago. And Besant's probably really good at this. Be like, all right, you've accomplished so much. Now let's not snatch a defeat from the jaws of victory.

Here's how you can really hammer home the point that you made. So that was probably compelling to Trump. It's like, oh, I won already? All right, I like that. And then this disaster happens Monday and Tuesday. And then I think on Wednesday, you kind of had this sequence of things that you know got the president's attention.

You have Jamie Dimon chooses to do an interview with Maria Bartiromo. Now this interview supposedly was set a long time in advance and I'm sure it was. I don't think Jamie Dimon like spurred the moment like get me into makeup. But Trump definitely watches Maria every morning and that's definitely hit like where he gets his stock market news from. Okay. So Jamie basically is not screaming and yelling about tariffs. He's just like, look, there are some legitimate trade issues and the president's right, but

this is going to lead to a recession. And Maria nods. So okay, that's definitely striking a chord. Then he has a meeting with Gretchen Whitmer, who is the mayor of Car Town, right? The governor of Michigan. You know those people are in her ear screaming. And then he sits with Charles Schwab, who is the face of the everyday American investor from a corporate sense, like the biggest American brokerage firm. And I think like that sequence of conversations probably puts him over the edge.

And in the meanwhile, he's got best in telling them telling him dude this will be a huge victory for you. The other funny part about the Wall Street Journal piece is Susan Wiles phone is blowing up. So you know who's on that phone. That's Chamath, that's Bill Ackman, it's Brad Gerstner, that's probably a handful of Wall Street people. People that have donated to his campaigns, people that truly want him to succeed. But you know that phone is ringing off the hook.

So I think like it was all, it all was just enough. And then I think he loved the stock market reaction. Like I think he wants to do it again. Well I think he saw Walter Bloomberg's tweet, honestly. And so wait a minute, if I just go back to Mark Willerally's 7% in 15 minutes, it did better than that. Nine and a half. So but to extend the parent-child analogy,

I think he loved the feeling of seeing the stock market up and it did better than that. Nine and a half. So, but to extend the parent-child analogy, I think he loved the feeling of seeing the stock market up the Dow of 3000 points because of something that he announced. Right, and then if we get into- And that's why it's hard to get too bearish here, because he's going to want to do it again. Right, and if we get into a demented child-parent analogy,

you know, it's like, all right, you're grounded, blah, blah, blah, I'm going to save the day. I'm your favorite parent. You know, particularly like go to the divorced parents. Well, he's saying that with yesterday. He's talking nice. Like now he's talking nice. They want to make a deal. We want to make a deal. They don't know how to make a deal. I'm going to save them. Right. But this, the execution of this was an unmitigated disaster. Absolutely. I think that a lot of normal people would say like, yes,

there are national security interests at heart and there are probably things that we should do to protect ourselves. This was not it. We have some audio clips, yes, there are national security interests at heart, and there are probably things that we should do to protect ourselves. This was not it. We have some audio clips, right, John? Mm-hmm. Do you personally expect a recession? I am going to defer to my economist at this point, but I think probably that's a likely outcome.

Mm-hmm. Okay. Bond market is very tricky. I was watching it, but if you look at it now, it's beautiful. The bond market right now is beautiful. It's very tricky, but also beautiful. We have one more. Yes, the stock market might be crashing. You know what else crashed?

The Titanic. And that became one of the highest-grossing films of all time. The president is announcing tariffs now. But pretty soon, he'll be announcing that those tariffs have been paused. And then he'll do the same thing again and again. It's called fear mongering and it's something that this administration uses as a tool very

often. Enough with the dumb questions. Let me tell you something about President Xi. If we allowed pronouns- All right. All right. We're good on fat Carrie Bradshaw. Everyone seems now to...

I guess everyone's cool with this whole thing being a game show. And I feel like that's kind of what's starting to sink in. What do you mean everybody's cool? Nobody's cool. Wait, yeah, I was going to say, who's cool with that? No, I don't think they want it. I think that's now the understanding is like, oh, okay, I got it. So today is a bad day, but tomorrow might be a great day because it's all a big game and it's all about optics and it's not really about the economy, it's more about everybody

dancing to the tune that the Piper plays. I don't like it. I'm not saying you should like it. We just had the fourth most volatile week in 60 years, looking at the average true range. This is from sentiment trader, which measures each day's range, divides it by the closing price, and averages it over a given number of days.

So it's quantifying all of the ups and the downs intraday. And we've got Black Monday, global financial crisis, COVID and the trade war. Awesome. You mentioned on air on Tuesday that your clientele is like half and half, which I think is probably true for all of us. I don't think this is such thing

as a Democratic asset manager or Republican asset manager. You might have, somebody might have a skewed balance in one direction or the other geographically because where they live. Okay. So when you talk to your clients this week, what did you just say the most volatile week in 60 years? COVID black Monday got a great financial crisis. Right here. Look at this. Who likes this? So, look at this. Who likes

this? Nobody likes this. So even the people who agree about trade and Trump's point, they're not enjoying this either, obviously. No, but to the people who agree with Trump and think that this is the way to make America great again, they're in the camp of, I will endure some short-term pain for long term gain. What a f**king joke. This idea that it's Main Street's turn and Wall Street had their fun. Total baloney.

Banks, if we are in a recession and a stock market crash, they're not gonna be lending to Main Street. It's so comical. But like you're still hearing people say, this is what we have to take our medicine, this is what we have to go through. Right, and then on the other side, you've got like, this is what we have to take our medicine. This is what we have to go through.

Right. And then on the other side, you've got like, this is disastrous. My portfolio is derailed. So you really have the two, but nobody likes it. Nobody likes seeing their portfolio down 10% in a week. I mean, it's horrible. So I want to show you something. Navigator Research put out a poll on Tuesday. It's a very highly regarded pollster. And the thing that jumped out at me, John, we're going to slide through a couple of these, Trump has never had a lower rating from the electorate

on his handling of the economy. Like even during the darkest times for Trump in the first term, he still always had this like, imprimatur of like, well, I'm the guy that understands business. And that's the part that I think, that's the part, here, let's go back. After last week's tariff announcement, Trump's economic approval has dropped precipitously,

now tied for his worst ever since 2018. So overall approval down, obviously, amongst independents and Democrats more than amongst GOP. But the economic approval rating was really interesting. Let's just go through a couple more of these. This is too much for me to read next. All right, so this is his economic approval rating. It's negative 13. It was plus 1. And this is not economic approval rating. It's negative 13, it was plus one,

and this is not just among Republicans, as recently as February 3rd and falling fast. Let's go to the next. And then here's the thing. They ask the question, are you confident or uneasy about your personal financial situation and the growth from the middle of March is... Oh my God.

Like look, I mean it's, so even Republicans, 42% are now uneasy about their own financial situation. Independents, 68%. But wait, Josh, listen. So for independents, it was negative 25 on December 8th. Yeah. It's now negative 41. So it's measuring the difference between uneasy and confident and let's go in the wrong direction

big time. Yeah. Yeah. And one of the biggest aspects of his victory last fall was amongst independents. So I think that this poll is probably like the most substantial political calculus, the most substantial piece of evidence that from a political standpoint, what he's doing is not helping him at all. It's economic, not political. Of course it's political, but it's economic in the sense that when people feel uneasy and not confident, they pull back, they wait, they're not going to do

the spending, corporate CFOs, CEOs, how do they plan with such uncertainty? And of course, so yeah, we can get these resolutions, but there will be a slowdown. Right. And we will see it. We will see the manifestation of that in the upcoming earnings calls. Oh, I agree. I can't wait to get it over with. But I can't wait because I don't think there's a CEO in America who has this spine or probably the stupidity right now to go out and offer a rosy view. And I don't know politically where all the CEOs stand, but I'm going to bet that's pretty mixed too. So that's where you're going to see the confluence

of like the real economy part, right? Hitting, hitting just the businesses. Regardless of- Yeah, but they also won't go hard the other way. No one will because there's no certainty. Right, but there's no, no, I don't think that at all. I just think they'll say we can't offer future guidance. I know we can't offer forward guidance. We're in a very uncertain time. I think there are CEOs, but I think there were

CEOs who are really happy to criticize Biden era policies publicly on their calls. I can't think. Yeah, who cares? It's just Joe Biden. Nobody wants to do that with Trump. Fair enough, but I don't think you need to. My point is but I don't think you need to. My point is only, I don't think we're going to see, regardless of party, any CEO, regardless of geography, regardless of business, I don't think any CEO is going to have the guts right now to go out and offer a rosy view.

There's simply too much uncertainty. And you know how the market, it's been for the past what year? The actual numbers from the current quarterly report don't matter. It's all about the forward guidance. It's all about the forward guidance. We're about to get jack in terms of forward guidance. Yeah, I agree. I think that's the next big risk to the market is pulled forecasts. John, put up Jenny's polymarket chart. So this stuff's really interesting to me because these prediction markets weren't meaningful up until the last year or so. And I think since

the election, we're giving them way more credence than we used to. So according to Polymarket, and this is not a ton of money, but it's also not $0. 61% chance now of a recession. And notably that's up 42% from the start of the year. Right. But more importantly, what's so interesting is seeing it spike basically on April 3rd. Yeah. Right, which we knew because we're sitting out there and I was about to once again go

to AI and say, hey, can you remind me of which strategists increased their recession expectations yesterday? And then I thought, no, this might actually be more interesting because this is going to encapsulate that. So rather than saying, and Goldman increased it to 60 percent and JP Morgan increased it to 60 percent. So it's pretty wild to see it follow the market right here where you saw it jump plunge yesterday for that those few minutes when the market was up 10 percent and then go right. Well let me ask you is this basically an inverse mood ring for the stock market? Is that like what are these people making bets on if not

just watching the markets? What do you mean by inverse? I don't think it's sophisticated. Look how small the dollar amount is. Oh yeah yeah yeah. No, I just think directionally it's interesting. Even in the presidential election, like the numbers weren't huge at all. You know, there's that one French trader who traded this, but directionally you could watch it and kind of see it mimic what we were hearing in terms of ebbs and flows. To me, it just consolidates what we're hearing. So I could have given you a really boring chart of Goldman was at 25% a week and a half ago. Now they're

at 60. Goldman was at 25% a week and a half ago. Now they're at 60. Or you can just look at this and this is just reflective of what we're hearing broadly. I had this thought that the bond market is really powerful and that's not an original thought. I think everyone is a famous James Carville quote about how much more powerful the bond market is than anybody else. Do you believe in that? Yeah, I think so.

Like after this week, you kind of have to, right? Kind of have to. I think what's been hard is that for what? A decade, the bond market's been kind of quiet and in the background. It hasn't had a heavy impact. Rates have been so low. And so now we're adjusting again to just what that power is and how it works. Yeah.

Yeah. Especially the treasury market, like in particular. And the fact that it's so globalized and when you're taking on opponents from other countries They have levers to pull right because one of the things that Besant was saying is we're not worried about the stock market Stock markets had a good run watch the bond markets see us making progress on Things like cutting costs and lowering deficits Well, the the bond market stuck up the middle finger to all of that. Right.

And it got everyone's attention. And I thought it was interesting because the rhetoric that I heard today was, oh, we had this wildly successful bond auction yesterday. All these people showed up. It was so successful. And I'm thinking to myself, well, yesterday wasn't the 10-year at 440. You know, when you wanted to do that auction on Friday, when the 10-year actually touched 390, I wouldn't consider selling debt at 440

when you could have sold it 10-plus percent less five days ago successful. There's research that shows that every basis point in bond yields is equivalent to $5 billion of additional interest payments. That year. Yeah, that year. That's crazy.

Yeah, so if you can cut the 10 year by 50 basis points, you save $500 billion. I think these are the numbers, or maybe I've got it a little bit messed up, but what it was is basically if you could cut 50 basis points out of the 10 year, and you're issuing debt there, you're saving $500 billion a year in interest payments.

So what happened this, we went the other way. Right, and then we're calling it a victory, because like foreigners showed up to buy the bonds. Yeah, we just added $500 billion of interest payments. It was one of them. So what happened this, we went the other way. Right, and then we're calling it a victory because like foreigners showed up to buy the bonds. Yeah, we just added 500 billion of interest payments by that logic. Right, successful would have been, you know, sell the debt on Friday. Yeah.

Let's talk about yesterday's reaction. Where were you when you blanked on stocks for a private loan? Were you in front of the screen? Yeah, no, I was on a call and I looked up and I'm like, what just happened? Oh my God, who are you on the phone with? A client? Just a client, but it was like down three, a pause like half an hour. I gotta go put on some hedging trades.

Right. I mean what do you do? What do you do? Alright, so you see it go crazy and then what do you do? You go to Twitter immediately? I went to Twitter immediately. That's what everyone did. Yeah, and do you know what I wrote? Oh, you had a tweet, Reddy? Yeah, no, Reddy, this is what I wrote. Can I swear on the show or do I need to Twitter immediately. That's what everyone did. Yeah, and do you know what I wrote? Oh, you had a tweet, Reddy?

Yeah, no, Reddy, this is what I wrote. Can I swear on the show or do I need to bleep it myself? I don't give a fuck, you say whatever you want. I just wrote on Twitter, bat shit cray cray. That's your big, that's your big swear? What could you say? I don't know, I thought you couldn't swear at all. I thought you were about to drop an MF.

No. All right. So like, I think there was like seven stocks that were down on the day. Yeah. John, throw this trough, trough four. I think I had all seven of them in my portfolio No, just kidding. So the biggest winners on the day were Microchip, right? Oh, which I was looking at right which was up 27%. Wait, what? Yeah. Why did it go up 27%?

Why is that the biggest winner of the day? It was down a ton probably 40 or 50% in the past few days, because it has both recession risk and tariff risk. Hold on. You were buying it that morning? No, no, no, I wasn't. I was researching it. I've been researching it for three days.

Well, throw that out. Too late now. No, no. It's down 15 or 16 percent today. It's exactly to where it was when I told you I first put the information into Grok and said, you know, the preferred or the commercial preferred trading at 43 ish and the stocks at 40. So United and Delta were both up a billion points.

Look at Warner Brothers. So Warner Brothers is interesting. Warner Brothers was the 10th biggest gain up 20% on the day. I think today it's down like a lot. 20% again. It's down 13. It's down 13%. I wonder why. Yeah, why on that?

Well, I'll tell you why. Why? Because China just announced that they are going to stop a certain number of films being shown there. Warner Brothers needs Superman to open big in China to justify the level of expense of making some of their 10-pole films for this year. So that's the answer why. But that's the interesting and hard thing about this. So what we did right off the bat, right, was go back through the entire portfolio starting on Thursday and Friday and reassessing where the risk is. So in the equity income

strategy, for example, there's 36 stocks and we carved them into three buckets. High tariff risk, high recession risk, resilient. And one of the challenges is all the knock-ons, right, the third and fourth derivatives, which is Warner Brothers. Why don't you innately say, oh, there's no, there's no tariff risk there. Oh, there's right. Well, there's, I think the only way to assess tariff risk at this point is to say what percentage of this company's revenues come from China. But but not in that case. Yes. But for example, I own Western Union in the portfolio too. Only 37% of those revenues are here in the US, but it's very, very low.

No, but I think China specific. Yes. Not the whole world. Fair enough. I'm just saying like there's still some cross border transactions that aren't, you know, that aren't going to be Jenny, if we keep 145% tariff on China for two, weeks. Some of stocks become uninvestable. For sure. Okay.

And microchip money. Because US casino operators with properties in Macau. There you go. Good f**king luck. When? Nike will roll back over. Apple be awful. Like Tesla, huge China risk. Actually, maybe the most other than Nike and Apple, Tesla might have the most acute China risk. Actually, maybe the most, other than Nike and Apple, Tesla might have the most acute China risk on the board.

So I think it's like, at this point, oh, he's gonna negotiate with all these countries, Australia, Europe, that's great. But like, I think it's now zeroing in on US versus China. I think you're right. So let me say a few more things about yesterday's rally. So just green everywhere, John, throw this up. Just, I mean, honestly, a day like we've seen once

or twice before, Josh, you said it was what, the 10th largest S&P day ever, the second largest NASDAQ day ever. You had, from Bespoke, the 14 day RSI had its biggest one day jump ever. I mean, these look fake. But here's the thing, needless to say, needless to say this is not good. This does not happen in a healthy market.

You get the best days after the worst days. So Grant Hawkridge from All-Star Charts has a great table showing well what happens after some of the best days and it's not great. Like it's really not. John, chart 11-2 please. If you go out, let's say, if you go out one month, it's positive 68% of the time. You got three months, it's 52%. Wait, can I ask you a question? Positive 68% of the time sounds like just the regular average of any day. But, so my point, it's not an all clear signal.

Right, right. So you have a, the worst loss was 20%. Like there's been massive losses after massive updates. It has not necessarily marked the bottom by any stretch of the imagination. So right, so it's not a particularly high hit rate. No. Buying after a huge one day rally. It's not.

There's all sorts of technical data that you could look at. Like, well, anytime the VIX has been over 50 for a week, it's always up a year later. Like, you could pick and choose what you want to look at, but in the short term, this is not good. Okay. In the short term. And that's always an interesting conversation too, right? Which is what term should people be focusing on?

And you know, should we be focusing on? Because if you look at this chart, one year out, it's all green, except for September 2008. So that's the point, Jenny, you're right. It's 95% positive one year later, which is a very high hit rate because the normal is 75% but the point the point that I'm making is There has been historically on average a lot of pain between now and a year So you have to survive right like you have to be able to survive. Yeah, I don't think anyone I don't think anyone would say this is not a good buying opportunity

I think the debate and I had this debate on air with Stephanie today. It's just like is this is this the Is this the bottom nobody nobody nobody knows but nobody thinks so But I also think that's a harder assessment today than it has been in pastimes and all the way why because There's such a wild divergence right now more than there ever has been I think between a wild divergence right now, more than there ever has been, I think, between where different stocks stand relative to their highs. And this goes to the concentration of the MAG-7. Last year you had, what was it, MAG-7,

I'm gonna totally screw this up, but like MAG-7 up 40%, balance of the S&P essentially flat for the year, right? So, and Josh, you said this- Big AI, big AI rally. But you said this on air the other day. You're like, there is an unprecedented number of companies that are already down 50% from their highs.

And because beneath the surface, there's such incredible distortion and dispersion. I don't think, if we're looking at that chart, all you can talk about is buying the market. There's so much else to buy. And I think- Well, this year, the mag sevens look is buying the market. There's so much else to buy. And I think- Well, this year the Mag-7s look worse than the market. Yeah.

But again, arbitrary time period. This year is three months and 10 days. I understand. So it's such a short period. What are we really looking at? Yeah, you're right. You're 100% right. Yesterday was the best day ever for the Mag-7

because so much of their revenue comes from abroad. But to the point that Josh has just made it was at the bottom. Ramp Capital did a post a poll yesterday 6,369 votes. Nice. So quite a bit of votes. 70% of the people said no. Well though that I mean it's a lot of people. It's a lot of people but like when would that ever be when would that ever be everyone saying it's the bottom? It would never happen. I'll never forget when we were with Dan, Guy, and Danny in December 2020, or maybe it was October.

It was right near the bottom. And I said- It was December of 21. So the market had bottomed five weeks prior. Or 22. 22. The market had bottomed five or six weeks prior. And I said show of hands, who thinks that was the bottom? Nobody. 22. 22. The market I bought them five or six weeks prior. And I said, show of hands, who thinks I was the bottom?

Nobody. Nobody. Yeah, but that's right, the buy sign. When I worked for Lazlo Berini, do you guys remember him? Yeah, of course. Okay, so I worked for Lazlo Berini as an intern in 1996. And one of the things he taught us interns

was the biggest contrary indicator were the sentiment of AAII, American Association of Independent Investors. So Michael, I put up a Twitter poll too. It only got 660 responses or something, but I put it up on Tuesday night and I said, it looks like we're down 18.9%, futures make it look like we'll hit an official bear market

tomorrow morning, what do you think the next move is from here? Plus 10%, minus 10%. Everyone said minus? 66% said minus. And I was going to say, that's surprisingly encouraging to me. So I think we look at these things and I take them as a contrary indicator,

but again, this is a weird time that we're in. It's not market dynamics. The problem with those sentiment polls is that, like, it mirrors everything else in society. Everything has just gone parabolic, and sentiment around everything. Like, the White Lotus just ended. People are like, ripping their clothes off.

It's like, all right, it was just okay. It was not a great season. But if you're a fan of the White Lotus and you're not disappointed, then it's the greatest thing that ever happened. And there's like very few people that are down the middle that are just like, all right, it was good. It wasn't the greatest thing I've ever seen.

If you watch influencers on Instagram and TikTok, the restaurant influencers, it's the greatest slice of pizza in the world. It's the best steak I've ever had. Because are you going to get eyeballs who are saying like, yeah, it was okay. Okay, so I think what I think is that that's what sentiment is now, period.

And so stock market sentiment is extreme all the time. There is no down the middle. It's just like, oh my god, I'm so bearish, it's about to crash, or this is the best time ever to be invested. And I just don't, I don't know if it's as useful as when people in general were more calm and measured with their takes.

That's a good take. I think that's right. But I think that one of the things that you can measure is our flows. So people are like, oh, we need to see retail capitulate. Guess what? The Vanguard investors will never capitulate. So if you're looking for them, you're looking at the wrong place. They will never capitulate.

This is the shit that we need to see cool off before you could say, OK, it's over, this sort of things. This is from Tom Serafegas. Seven straight weeks of inflows into leveraged long ETFs. That needs to get cooked. You want to see that go decidedly negative. I mean come on. Right, that needs to be like 2022.

When you saw ARK just finally flush out the riff raff. So the excess speculation, that sort of stuff you need to see cool off. All right, so. Wait, can we just do some couple of stock charts real quick? Where do you want to go? Tesla. So that huge rally, quote unquote huge rally,

I think the stock went up 50 points. Dude, it was like 20 something percent. What do you mean quote unquote? I know, but what's so crazy is it's still contained. I'm showing you five day chart. It's still contained within this band of, that's how like wild the market overall is, that that huge rally is still relatively contained.

Let's do Apple. You see what I mean? Like it's a huge comeback for Apple yesterday. I think it was up 16% on the day, which is, it's the biggest market cap stock in the world, going up 16%. I don't know how much money it went up in market cap, but it's an enormous number.

But it's still like relatively contained within the context of the sell-off that we're in. So I thought that was interesting. All right, Jenny, I know that you are a bottom-up investor. You do your research. You're an earnings person. And I think one of the, actually, I know that you are a bottom-up investor. You do your research. You're an earnings person. And I think one of the, actually, you know what? No, we're going to do this insider trading question.

Yeah, let's put a, sorry. All right, go ahead. Put a pin in that. Was yesterday the Super Bowl of insider trading in Washington? Sure felt like it, didn't it? It was pretty disappointing. So he did something so brilliant. I'm not going to assume the worst.

I'm not going to assume he set people up to do an insider trade. But I acknowledge that it's conceivable. And by the way, both sides do this shit and everyone hates it. Yesterday was really extreme. Like nobody wants to see Pelosi racking up gains either. All right. So let me just say that and get that out of the way. However, he did something really brilliant.

Just in case somebody was gonna trade on what he was about to do, he tweeted it, buy. So now, and everyone has plausible denial, but what, the president said to buy stocks. Look, he said it at 9 a.m., I bought it at 11. Right? All right, so let's put that aside. I'm assuming there's gonna be a congressional investigation.

I don't know if the SEC. Why are you assuming that? Because they said it. Oh, okay. So I don't know if the SEC will cooperate or, I have no idea. I'm not a legal expert here. But I think that's like part of the problem also.

It's just the fact that everyone is like, yeah, that probably happened. Yeah. I don't know if we would have been like that. Like I think if this had happened under Obama and Obama did famously say on Twitter by the stock market by America in 2009, nobody immediately jumped to the conclusion that he knew something or he did something or his cronies got rich because the market then shot up 40%.

Yeah, but then Obama at that time wasn't in the position to move the market single-handedly, solely, you know, with a tweet later in the day. That's correct. I think the reality is, it's probably not technically insider trading, but it sure feels bad. You know, and there's that famous quote, how do you define porn? I know when I see it. Yeah, I know when I see it. But there was a spike in option volume, like somebody literally, somebody knew., how do you define porn? You know, you can't. Yeah, I know it when I see it. But there was a spike in option volume. Like somebody literally, somebody knew.

John, do we have that? Somebody knew, but you could have guessed. You could have guessed too as soon as you saw that tweet. You could have speculated the same way I speculated the day before. He wasn't going to carry through. So look what this looks like. Michael, what are we looking at?

I have no idea. OK. A line chart going vertical. I don't know what's in there. OK. This is call options on the triple Qs. Yeah, so the average, what is that, the price? So, look at the green candle.

All I want you to do is look at the volume. You understand? Well, there was another one hours earlier that dwarfs that. Look at the one earlier in the day at about 9 am. So that's accumulation right after the market. And then that is just as it's happening. Nobody's that fast I don't think so maybe this one's algorithms, but the one at 930 in the morning I don't know do we unless somebody shows me that every day looks just like this

There's a huge burst of call buying at the open I don't know I don't know enough about this, but I know people were up in arms I think the problem is is that it breeds distrust in the market. You know, and this is not a health, it is not healthy. Unusual, Unusual Whale said, you can see before Trump posted by on Truth Social, traders opened triple Q's, the T triple Q's, which is hilarious. So the triple levered ETF calls, NSPY calls, and right before the news, somebody opened 509 calls expiring the same day. Those calls all went up 2100% in one hour.

So people don't do that unless they know something. So I think that's part of the problem of this becoming a game show is people not only see it that way, but they see it as a rigged game show on top of it, which is not great. Alright, so let's talk about how the stock market affects the economy. So Warren Paes has a chart showing that the wealth shock is now equivalent to 23% of GDP, which is the fourth worst since 1950. There was a quote in the New York Times, somebody said, a friend stopped by my Times. Somebody said, a friend stopped by my office today and said, well, I won't be redoing my kitchen because my entire kitchen

budget was wiped out in the stock market in the past three days. It's not just Wall Street. Oh, no. One of my clients who I love retired this year. She's got a really great nest egg that she saved up, but she's freaking out. It's down 10%. It's down a little more than 10%. And that will affect how she spends her money. That's the point. Absolutely.

She will travel. She won't buy stuff. She's freaking out. And so when we look at this too, what are we going to do collect, you know, let's say tariffs are 23% right now. We import $3.3 trillion of goods from overseas. Let's call it about $700 billion theoretically that we collect on tariffs. What does that do?

That more than offsets the best case there, including capital gains. And by the way, you know what I'm going to do for my clients soon? I'm going to capital loss service. I'm going to do that soon to offset tax cuts. The tax gain collection thing was always nonsense. Because then they're saying we're going to make deals. Well, why are we making deals? If it's so great to collect the tariffs,

then we shouldn't want deals. Dude, you don't get tariffs. I guess I don't understand it. Yeah, but so you've deteriorated wealth, you've given people an opportunity to offset capital gains. But at least rates are going up and the dollar's going down. Have you thought about that as well? Are you being sarcastic?

Yes, I am. Put up the Scott Besson tile, chart 14. So this is his tweet. For the last four decades, Wall Street has grown wealthier than ever before. True. And it can continue to grow and do well, but for the next four years, it's Main Street's turn.

It's Main Street's turn to hire workers. It's Main Street's turn to drive investment. And it's Main Street's turn to restore the American dream. Okay. Let me help. The employers who employ the people who live and work on Main Street have exposure to the stock market, either because they have their own portfolio and they're small business owners

and it affects their mood, and therefore the knock on effects are, hey, I'm watching the stock market crash, I don't think now is the best time to expand what I'm doing. I thought Besson was smart. Is he like, I don't remember the exact details, but Professor Snape in Harry Potter

was like pretending to sort of be bad, but like was almost like doing it really for good purposes. Is that what Besson is doing? I have no idea. I've been trying to find out, figure out his MO all day. The shit that he says is so dumb, and he's not dumb. So right, he has to be playing dumb, because he's not dumb.

So he can't, but I see like I have to say- But what's his MO? I see like I have to- Like what does he want? I think he wants to stay in the job. And I think he wants to be the hero. I think he wants to be the hero who oversees a situation where the economy is growing, but with more manufacturing

and with better middle-class outcomes. My point was- I think he believes that he can do it. Let me give him the extreme benefit of the doubt and say he is an extreme patriot and is willing to humiliate himself and tank his reputation because he needs, for the betterment of the doubt and say he is an extreme patriot and is willing to humiliate himself and tank his reputation because he needs for the betterment of the country, he feels like he's the one that can sort of make the president be quasi rational. Is that at all possible?

I mean, anything is possible. What if he's just a power monger and he's power tripping and he just wants maximum power because that's what makes the guy happy. Well, that's another interpretation. I don't get that from him. I don't get any of it.. Well, that's another interpretation. I don't get that from him. I don't get any of it. He does not give him those lives. I don't get any of it. Yeah.

I like I get that from I get that from Howard Lotnik. I don't get that from Scott. So what does this do to earnings? John, throw the strata from facts that we're looking at S&P 500, 2025 bottom up EPS and it was 280 bucks earlier last year consensus for this year. Now it's $269, which is definitely not nice and going lower. Such a shame that this happened from an all time record high for S&P earnings, isn't it? Yes.

Like we were there. We were there. We didn't need to screw it up. So Goldman's got an estimate out there that it might be $248 to $250. I just wrote my quarterly client letter. I said, you know, it's still at 11 and a half percent growth year over year. Our guess is that it'll be flat. There's no way, right? There's no way.

There's no way. Because don't forget this is forecast, right? And we just talked about how everyone's going to pull their forecast. So people are going to go back to baseline, which is going to bring us back to flat. So like what's 17 times for argument's sake? Don't tell us. I don't want to know. 17 times. You saw me going for my nerd calculator. 250 times. argument's sake. Don't tell us. I don't want to know. 17 times.

You saw me going for my nerd calculator. 250 times. I'm lower, lower. No, I understand it's lower. Do you really want to do it? Yeah, I just want to do it. Just a mental exercise. So in other words, right now the multiple's 18.

The multiple will come lower as earnings come lower. It's 42.50. It's 42.50. 42.50 and where are we on the S&P as of right now? 5,000-ish, right? That's gross. Like, it's not good. It's not.50. 42.50 and where are we on the S&P as of right now? 5,000-ish, right? That's f***ing gross. Like, it's not good. It's not good for...

Eh, it's not that bad. I can take a thousand more S&P points. But it's 20% from here. Yeah. It's a flesh wound. I don't know. More than a flesh wound, sir. Historically, that's very, very bad.

Let's do this S&P bottoms before the trough and earnings during recessions. Wait, hang on. Before we do that, I want to give Dan a quote, because this is a good one. Dan Ives said, we have talked over the last week that unleashing this Tato farm again was always a negotiation tactic for Trump, but the impacts and gamble of the real economy are snowballed that once it starts rolling downhill, it cannot be just stopped. Investors will see that during EPS season. So, alright. What happens during recessions to earnings? Less AR.

Yeah, way less. So, all right, the average is down 18%. If you take out the Great Depression and the GFCs. Did we debate this the other day? Yeah, you said 15, I said 20 to 30. So, if you take out the GFC and the Great Depression, so take the two worst out. Okay. And it drops from down 18 to said 20 to 30. So if you take out the GFC and the Great Depression, so take the two worst out. Okay.

And it drops from down 18 to down nine to 10. Then that's where we are. I know, but we're still forecasting 7% for the quarter that we're in. Like the reality has not yet hit. That's the dangerous part about this moment. I think that's right, and I think that's why you can look at this,

but I don't think any of these went into that period with a multiple trading at an all-time high. We went into this stretched. We went into this with no room for error. So we've corrected a lot of that already though. So we started the year 21 times earnings, now you're 18. You're not 27. It's not 1999.

You're not at 40 times earnings. Or 18 times forward earnings, which you and I just agreed are total baloney. Yeah. No, I agree. It's not 1999. You're not at 40 times earnings. We're 18 times forward earnings, which you and I just agreed are total baloney. Yeah. No, I agree. It's problematic. So if you factor in, what are we saying? An 18% average decline pulling out the two worst case scenarios. No, no, no.

Eight pulling out. Eight. Yeah. Oh, I thought you were saying 18. Yeah, there's no way we get off this easy. So X the GFC and X the Great Depression is eight. So that seems reasonable. There's another great chart from BMO.

This shows the year-over-year change in quarterly profits. And we're looking at red circles and green circles. And the bottom line is that when you get a recession, the earnings decline is way more significant, on average basically, than a non-recessionary down drift. And it seems like most people agree, if we have a drop in earnings, it will be accompanied by a recession.

The green circles are when earnings fall, but you're not in recession. Exactly. I see. So, I don't know, they look sort of identical to me. What am I missing? The red. The red or lower.

No, the green or more shallow. The red or lower. The red or lower. So here's the bottom line. Like this is what I would consider the coup de gra, Jenny. Let's hear it. Think back to, I would consider the coup de grace, Jenny. Let's hear it. Think back to, let's leave with chart 21, please, John. All right, so people would say,

how could you guys even begin to talk positively about stocks when the tariffs went on last night? We have not seen any material damage in the economy, in the earnings per share. Why buy now? I'll tell you exactly why. Well, go ahead. Let's get Jenny's answer.

Okay, so I was debating this with my partner, Greg, on the trip in, and he's like, I knew we should have had more bonds, you know? And I said to him, okay, which would you rather own, the 10-year at 430 or Uber? I'm sorry, I didn't say Uber, or DocuSign. You'd rather own DocuSign. Why?

Because I can't remember off the top of my head exactly, but it's something like 16, 17 times earnings, unbelievable growth ahead, high teens growth, little to no tariff risk, little to no recession risk. Like, which would you rather own? Well, it'll be more volatile than the bond. And little to no growth. Fine.

We hope. Fine. But when you fast forward five years from now, where do you think you're going to have a higher return? Yes, but see, this is Greg years from now, where do you think you're going to have a higher return? By a long shot. So this is Greg's point. Back to the time pair. But Greg's point is, I can't fast forward five years.

Wait, Gary, Greg? I have to live through them. No, no, my partner, Greg. I have to live through those five years. Right, and if you set up your portfolio in advance, and you've got the wherewithal, you are better off to just stick with it, which is why, you know, Josh, after we were on.

We all know that intellectually is true. Yeah, and I think that's our job as advisors, right? We all agree with it, which is why, you know, Josh, after we were on. We all know that intellectually is true. Yeah, and I think that's our job as advisors, right? And we all agree with that too. Everybody has a pain point where they cry, uncle. I disagree. Wait, so you don't think so? Everybody has a pain point where they cry. Not everyone cries, uncle.

Fine, not everyone. A lot of people. Yeah, and they shouldn't. And it's our job to get them through it. And someone put up on Twitter the other day after the show. They're like, and none of these four told us to sell. Like, of course we wouldn't tell you to sell. What do you do at the bear market?

You get through it. Selling what? And let's get back. Okay. And by the way, I did, but I don't tell people to sell, but. But let's talk about something else. Like what happens if you miss the 10 best days, right? Yeah, well, they're always the day after the 10 worst days.

Getting back in is impossible. Getting back in is impossible, which is why you're better off staying in. I mean, what would happen? When was the last time we had one of those 10 best days? That's not the debate though. Here's the debate. You meet somebody, well, like you're in Connecticut, so you meet somebody on the equestrian circuit, right? Oh yeah. Okay. On horseback. And I say, Buffy, how was your ride? So Jenny, you had a croquet match, you meet somebody, they're like, all right, here's the deal. I have $5 million. I want to send it to you. You're the only person I trust. But like, just don't put it in the market

now. Okay, so here's what I do. So what do you want me to do with it? Literally, this is what I do. So, and this is, this is true in this moment, like today. So I have a client who sent in about $7 million a couple weeks ago. And it's, they sent it to you, like today. So I have a client who sent in about $7 million a couple of weeks ago. And it's a long story. They sent it to you, not me. I know, I'm so sorry. We can debate that.

So this is self-directed. And as we said before, some of my clients are through advisors. Some are just very self-directed people. So they sent it. And they've got another part outside of me. But they sent in $7 million. And so the plan all along was, well, leg in slowly if the market's terrible.

Which is rational. Right. But I'll give you the caveat on it. If the market's terrible, it'll probably go faster. If the market's great, it's going to go slower. And we're just going to pick off stocks one by one. But on the train ride, I had a very busy train ride into the city, by the way.

Greg, this conversation. And so they hit that point where they're kind of crying. And they're scared. So I said, let's do this. Let's carve out $2 million. And we're going to put it in treasuries that mature in three months, six months, nine months, 12 months. Ladder.

Ladder. And we're going to do one of two things. When it matures, we have a conversation. We say, hey, let's be disciplined and go in. Or if the market tanks down 30% more treasuries. Or if the market tanks 30%, we've Roll it. Or Treasuries. Right. Or if the market tanks 30%, we've got Treasuries, short-term Treasuries sitting there that we can use as a source of cash.

Because what you have to do is stay disciplined. Yes. And like we all know the math on this. The math favors equities. However you cut it, if you can just stay in, the math favors equities. Well this is relevant. How old is this particular person? This one?

They just retired. This one? They're probably like 69. 69. Nice. I kind of knew you were going to say that. I'm interested. All right. So let me, can I throw some math at you? I think you're going to like these charts.

John, chart 22. OK. So to the point of you haven't even seen stocks start to deteriorate in terms of earnings, what we're looking at are all of the bear market lows since 1957, and on average, what happens with earnings per share? And what you can clearly see, for those of you who are listening, is that on average what happens with earnings per share. And what you can clearly see for those of you who are listening, is that on average the price of stocks bottomed nine months before earnings.

Nine months. First of all, here's why you can't wait for earnings to bottom. You won't know it's to bottom until a quarter later. That's number one. But number two, stocks are looking through the falling earnings and they're already starting to price the recovery. Yeah, things are going to get bad. Oh, you think that's why Nvidia's down 40%? Genius Stikes, we know. So rewind back to 2020. Do you guys remember? I know you do. In 2020, when we bottomed in like 23 days and we skyrocketed and we said, this makes no sense.

Earnings are still falling. How is this happening? In Q3, Carnival reported a 99% decline in revenue from 10 billion to 30 million or whatever and the stock was flat on the day. How? Because it was down 90% already. So look, chart 2020 please.

So in 2020, EPS bottomed 13 months after the stock market did. 13 months. That's crazy. Imagine waiting 13 months to buy that. Can you miss the entire run back up? So even worse, GDP, which of course is backward looking, we don't have the data in real time, GDP bottomed three months after in 2020,

and normally it bottoms five months after the stock market does. And we only get that with the benefit of hindsight. So this idea that you are going to wait for the dust to settle before you buy stocks. It doesn't work that way Nobody gets it right. Yeah, you stay in you right you cannot possibly know that you're at trough earnings If you can't until the following earnings quarter where they start to grow again, and then by then there's no way you're buying lower Can I tell you guys something that I did recently? I taught a class, just one class,

at Baruch College on behavioral finance. My friend teaches it and asks me to come to guest teach. And it's really fun. It's for their master's program. The students are really sophisticated. And I gave them a bit of forensic analysis. And I showed them, oh, actually, and as you know, I wrote a book on dividend investing,

and there's a chapter in the book that describes this. In the chapter, it's fake names, but their names are Henry and Mary Ann in the chapter. But it's the same thing that I showed for Baruch. And I showed the Baruch students these two client portfolios, and they're actual portfolios that I showed them. And both of these clients started on the same time.

I adjusted it so that, you know, one started with one amount, the other, but I adjusted it so it was even. And I showed them everything. You know, here's the same time, I adjusted it so that, you know, like one started with one amount the other, but I adjusted it so it was even. And I showed them everything, you know, here's the starting value, here's the cash flows in and out, here's the investment gain, here's the income, here's the management fees, here's the ending value, here's the total return.

One had a total return, by the way, they started in late 18. One has a total return of 1% annualized. The other has a return of 9% and change percent annualized. And I said to the students, why do you think this happened? And it took them a ton of guesses. Oh, one took more money out. One did this. One did that.

No, you know what happened? One of them cried uncle. And the other guy freaked out. And he was the only client who in March of 2020 when we're talking about that day, I couldn't keep in. And I have in my notebook, me saying, don't do this. This is the worst idea. Like you can't sell at a bottom.

And him saying, I know, sell anyway, I can't take it. And that's how long, five years later, you have an annualized eight and change percent difference. That is huge money. That's a really important message for people to hear right now because that's the question on everyone's mind. They're saying like, wait a minute, you guys are all describing how chaotic everything is

and the bond market and the president. But hold. So then why are you saying don't do anything when I could get myself out of this jam right now? Because you won't get back in at the right time. And the client who I call Henry in the book. And it's your long term returns that will suffer as a consequence. Not just this year.

And that's why I asked you what time frame should people be looking at? You know, should they be looking at the one week out or two weeks out, which is a debate with Steph? Three weeks. Three weeks minimum. Okay. But that's like, you know, that's just tactical. And am I going to be buying? But when you look at that one year out,

every one of those time periods is favorable. When you look at three years and five years, and the reality is, I know your guys' client base is a lot younger than mine. All of our clients, including my older clients, have at least a five year time period ahead. And that's why Josh, you know, on Twitter, when the guy's like,

oh, and none of you guys told me to sell, like, no, idiot, of course we didn't tell you to sell because we're not that stupid Oh, I was gonna say cuz you're not fucking paying me and I don't give advice on Twitter like Space he was talking about like those of us on the show. Like why don't you tell me? I also don't give advice on TV. Yes, you do. That's all we do You know what Jenny if you actually pay attention to me, which now I know you don't Know why you're busy scribbling notes to people. You know what, Jenny? If you actually pay attention to me, which now I know you don't. You're just dating facts? No. No.

While you're busy scribbling notes to people, you know what I'm saying? I am doing this. Not you should. I don't give a shit what anyone does. Okay. Listen, that's leading by default. I know it sounds semantic to you, but I go out of my way. Jim Cramer says, I want you to buy Harley Davidson.

You will never hear me say that. I say this is what I am doing because I don't care what anyone else does. Especially if you're not a client of the firm, the hell do I care? But you've gotta know that people are looking at all of us. That's their problem. I agree with you, I agree with you.

If you're taking advice, if you literally like. From him? You're taking advice primarily from people on TV that don't know you, you're not getting financial advice. I hear what you. If you're taking advice, if you literally like... From him? You're taking advice primarily from people on TV that don't know you. You're not getting financial advice. I hear what you're saying. Because they don't know you. I think it's a nuance, but I get your point and it's fair. This is my opinion.

This is what I think, this is what I am doing. Not, this is what everybody listening should do. How could I do that? I don't know anybody. Yeah, and I think I give advice, but I'll say like, look, this doesn't make sense for everyone, but if you need, then I suggest. Here's where I cross over.

I give behavioral advice. Right. I think what I do is I tell people how they should think about things, or what aspects of the markets maybe they haven't considered. I definitely don't look into a camera and say, go out there and buy Nvidia today. You'll never hear it, because I don't do it.

Let me ask you guys this. I tell you to buy NVIDIA. On this point. You I could give advice to. So Rob Anderson from Ned Davis Research tweeted, the S&P 500 is off 17% from the high versus an average drawdown of 25% for bear markets with no recession,

and 35% for bears that overlap with the recession. So if you know that, and a listener's like, guys, I know a recession's coming, you know a recession's coming. If we still have 25% or 35% more downside and we're only off 18%, I still have time to sell. Why shouldn't I sell? Because I don't know that we know a recession is coming.

Well, that's a really important point. And after a day like yesterday, with the Deus Ex Machina of the president removing the proximate cause of everyone's pain, you see what could happen if you're like waiting for the all clear. It's going to take place while you're on the phone with somebody. Right. And it's also there's such a wide, wide divide right now between the underlying economy and

the stock market. Imagine if, for example, 2023, the market had been up 12% and 2024 the market had been up 12%. Going to this trading at 17 times earnings. We have a very different drawdown right now. Jenny, I want to share something that you wrote and then we're going to talk about the book and then we're going to get some stock ideas from you. So we're going to try to do a lot in a few minutes here.

But you said, what's the commonality between all of the best investment quotes of all time? Behavior. They're not about asset allocation. They're not about strategy. They're not about stock picking. They're all about behavior. You and I are 100% on the same page in that regard. All of those other things are important, strategy and allocation, but like none of them will

trump a poorly behaved investor. They won't save you. And so, but you, you made this list and I'll let you read it. What do Josh and I agree most on? I love that because people think that we fight like cats and dogs or like brother and sister on the air and we sort of do. We debate. Yeah, but we get confused with fighting and debating.

And you and I on the big things that really matter, we're of the same mind. 100%. So run down this little mini list that you wrote, because I think it's great. Okay, so this is what Josh and I agree on most. Behavior is paramount. We both believe in the value of good communication.

Oh yeah. This, I think you are the best of anyone I've ever met, Josh, the value of being a market historian and the ability to analogize. When people say to me- You call me Investopedia Brown. I know that so much. But but your ability to analogize is above and beyond. And there's this really great book called range by this guy, David Epsi. And he talks about if you can analogize, you know, all whatever, I won't get distracted on that. But like all the great things that come from being able to do that You and I both believe in asset allocation. Yes, we both believe that markets trend up over time. That's right

We both believe that when we're negative on the market, it doesn't mean we're selling out talent You can be negative and not cash out a portfolio and you know Agree that it's fun to disagree It is fun to disagree. It is fun to disagree. Because you know what? When you disagree and when you get a stock wrong, that's when you actually learn. I was thinking about coming into this and writing that we enjoy disagreeing.

If you don't agree, you end up like that Saturday Night Live skit with those ladies on NPR. Like, yeah, yeah. Well, also, there are people on the show that you can't disagree with because they get really upset, they take it personal. I might sometimes be one of those people. Like I might sometimes get personally angry when somebody disagrees with me if I don't like the way they disagree with me.

So it's tough, but I think you and I, our back and forth is as good as there is anywhere on financial TV. I personally enjoy it. You do too, I back and forth is as good as there is anywhere on financial TV. I personally enjoy it. You do too. I think the viewers end up enlightened no matter which one of us they agree with. And you're coming along. Like you're getting, I feel like you're getting there.

Thank you Obi-Wan. Jenny, what's the best dividend stock to buy for next week? I asked you for five dividend stocks. Okay. I'm going to give you five. I actually think I came up with a list of seven for you. All right, so here we go. So the five that I think are appropriate for now.

We have a table here. All right. This will help you. Bristol Myers, Conagra, Clearway Energy, Dominion Energy, Ryman Hospitality, Sober Healthcare and Verizon. And what these all have in common. Time out.

How many stocks in your dividend strategy do you currently own? 36. Okay, so these are the seven that you think right now or for the longest term. For the period that we're in right now. I mean, the theme here is US revenue. 100%.

Oh. And so remember how before I said, we segmented the portfolio and we said, these eight companies have high tariff risk, these three companies have high recession risk, these 22 companies in the portfolio are very, very resilient. I pulled out seven that I thought were very resilient. Let me go one by one with you, okay? I'm going to give you the superlatives and then you tell me why to buy the stock, okay?

Okay. All right. We're ready for this? You guys excited for this? Okay. Who wouldn't be? Bristol Myers is a 4.7% dividend yield they've been paying for 92 years. Eight times forward earnings. Okay. So if you look at this, it looks like really crummy earnings growth ahead. And that's true. But what they have is a huge legacy drug pipeline. About half of their drugs are still in a growth phase. About halfology big, like big cancer? Big cancer, yeah. But a lot are coming off patent, blah blah blah. But they are pumping out 10 billion plus of free cash

flow a year for the next three years. With that, they'll be like Ab V Circa 2018, where they should be able to buy their way back to growth by the end of the next five years. Acquisitions? Right, whatever it is or internal development, but by the next five years, they should, oh, this goes to your point about buying the market before earnings change. You wanna buy the stock before earnings inflect also. By the next five years, earnings should inflect

and you'll have collected 4.7% from a company that's paid a dividend for 92 years and it's just minted free cash. All right, Kanagra brands, they own like what? Hebrew national? What do they own? Okay, they own like what? Hebrew national? What do they own? Okay. They have a lot of frozen, a lot of healthy, but what you saw over the last nine and then

again when RFK Jr. was nominated to HHS and we're going to make America healthy again, you saw the consumer staples plunge, right? Because there's going to be less calorie consumption. They have a healthier, on average, a healthier portfolio of food brands than their peers. What are the brands? Duncan Hines, I always- I'll tell you right now. Okay, thank you.

Slim Jim, Duncan Hines, Reddy Whip, Hunt Snack, ooh snack pack, Orville Redenbacher, Hebrew National. Yeah, but go to like the frozen. There's a lot of like healthier frozen. A ham, the spray ham. Boom Chicka Pop is a healthy one. Bird's Eye is vegetable, frozen vegetables.

Right, right, right, thank you. What's David, is that sunflower seeds? Yeah, I think so. It's like the, yeah, flavor ones. Healthy choice, Pam. Boom chicken pie is a healthy one. Bird's eye is vegetable, frozen vegetables. Right, right, right. What's David, is that sunflower seeds? Yeah, I think so. It's like the, yeah, flavor ones. Healthy choice, yeah. All right, so, 50, 49 years of paying a dividend, 10 times earnings, 5.6% yield by right now? I think so.

Okay. And you know what it's going to do? It's going to give you a 5.6% yield, and you can see the earnings will grow four or 5%. So if the share price appreciates at the rate of earnings, you're going to get four or 5 percent capital appreciation plus five point six percent. This goes back to do you want to own a bond or do you want to own a stock? Clearway Energy. I'd rather own this. Okay. Clearway Energy. They are and this is interesting because they actually.

C-W-E-N. Home gamers. Okay. And so this has a seven percent yield, trades at 12 and a half times, limited earnings growth, but they basically have clean, you know, the clean energy, right? They have wind, solar, battery. If you believe that the world, that the American in particular needs more energy production to feed AI, to feed the data centers, whatever it is, we need everything we can get. We need coal, we need solar, we need nuclear, we need wind, we need geothermal, we need everything. But what is this? This is wind?

No, it's solar, wind, battery, energy, storage, and they just create power and sell it to the grid. Okay, I like it. It's so boring. Dominion is... Oh, sorry, but go back to that. Zero tariff exposure, zero economic exposure. Everyone's using every bit of power that we can get.

Okay. Dominion is utility. Right. Dominion is a utility. 75% in Virginia, a lot in South Carolina, 7 to 9% earnings growth ahead, 5 and change yield, 92 years of paying that dividend trading at 14 times. Okay, Ryman, you explained to me on Tuesday on the air, but this is like the Ryman Auditorium in Nashville,

which I love. Right. Grand Ole Opry, they have a bunch of other properties. Right, like the National in D.C., the Palms and Fulton. You went out of your way to point out that these are non-casino conference centers. Why is that meaningful, that distinction? I think because it doesn't, because when they're not,

they really are conference centers for businesses. So they don't, when we were talking about the Las Vegas risk before. So it's not tourism. No, something like, I've got it down here somewhere, something like 67% of the revenues are corporate, are corporate sales, and they book out two to five years in advance.

It's pretty cool on this one. You can look back to the GFC and say, OK, let's say we did have a huge long sustained recession. What would happen to their earnings? And if the earnings collapsed to the same point they did in the GFC, guess what? They can still cover that dividend yield. Because what happens is they have severance fees, right?

So if you cancel your conference, you still owe them 21 million bucks. All right, Sabra Health. This is 7.3% yield, must be a real piece of shit. 11 times forward earnings. No, it's actually a great company. All right, what is it? 11 times forward earnings, but it's FFO

because it's a REIT. So it's- Go around and find out. So they've got 364 properties. It's a lot of retirement, skilled nursing, again, very zero tariff. Yeah. Some economic risk. If there was a huge recession, people are like, oh, I need to keep my grandma at home. Government doge risk or no?

Not really. No, zero doge risk. Okay. Zero. Because it's skilled nursing home. So it's like, Josh, you know, when you want to check your parents into a home, you're going to go use one of their properties. Yeah. Sabra is an Israeli word. Why are all the nursing homes, why are all the skilled nursing homes owned by Israelis? Okay. I have no idea, but it's true, though, right? But the CEO, you know, is wonderful and wears his hostage tags proudly and it's really great. So I have no idea where they're all. All right. Verizon 6.4%. So I have never made money in this stock as long as I've been alive. This is my take on Verizon. All right, Verizon, 6.4%. I have never made money in this stock

as long as I've been alive. This is my take on Verizon, tell me why I'm wrong. 6.4% yield, which looks super juicy, nine times forward. They have a CEO who's one of the highest paid people in the world. The stock price only goes in one direction, which is down. Nobody ever makes money in the stock other than clipping the coupon.

And I'm not going to say AT&T is materially better, but T-Mobile is better than both of those. T-Mobile is better than both. Why would I buy this piece of shit? This goes back to what time period are we looking at and your time period is 30 years the stock has not gone up fine What time period are you looking at? I'm looking at now to say the next three years and this goes back all of- All of a sudden, something's going to materially change that makes the stock perform? No. I don't like how he's talking to you. Josh.

No, but you see what I mean? No, no, no, no, no, no. Can you pull up a chart of Verizon? I just love it. No, don't waste your time with the chart. Total return, total return. Close my eyes like Luke Skywalker in Just Fire? I got to look at the chart.

Josh, listen. What would you rather own? A 10-year treasury where you get 4.3% and pay ordinary income tax or would for the next three years, would you rather own Verizon where you're gonna get 6.4%? I would rather own literally Herpes Simplex 9 than own this stock. I've lost money with it three times. It never works.

Okay, I think you probably are going, no, I'm trying to come up with a comeback for that. No, I'd rather own anything. I feel like it's not worth responding. You said I was very skilled in analogies. I analogize the stock to literally portfolio disease. All right. So Jenny, you wrote a book.

Yes, thank you. What a brilliant segue. So can I tell you what I love about dividends? And then we'll come back to you. Yes, please do. Especially in difficult markets like today, I think behaviorally, dividend stocks are wonderful because you know that that piece of shit Verizon will pay you your dividend.

Thank you, Michael, thank you. All the way down. It helps you. It's gonna be flat. It helps you stay invested. So I think it's a great behavioral hedge. That's exactly right. I might buy Verizon actually.

I think you should, but just only if you would rather own a bot. I love your conviction levels. Thank you. I love your conviction, all right, wait. Not always very, but I would- I think Michael makes a really good point. Look, we all struggle with talking clients

through moments like these, but I do think the part where they get dividends into their account each month is probably something that you are able to point to and be like, yeah, I know this sucks, but look, you got paid on Monday, you got paid on Wednesday, you got paid like, and you're getting income, so you have something to show

for the pain that you're living through. But let's just start off and say, first of all, there's a difference between dividend growth investing and dividend income investing. So when we're having this part of the conversation, it's very specific to dividend income investing. Divid we're having this part of the conversation, it's very specific to dividend income investing. Dividend growth.

Oh, that's interesting, because we had this conversation with Belsky. He's the opposite of you. Right. He's looking for dividend growers. You have a certain target current yield, and that's what you're building your portfolio on. Right.

Is it 5%? Yes. That's your hurdle? For the whole portfolio, 5% or better dividend yield. So if you buy something much lower than 5%, you have to offset it with a much higher yielder. Exactly. Okay. And so then let's just, so now that we're talking about dividend income, let's just

acknowledge that it doesn't make sense for everybody. It makes sense for people who need the emotional comfort of knowing your point exactly, that if they put a million dollars in and they've come to me and I say, I'm going to give you a minimum of 5% or better yield, they're getting 50 grand a year paying out over and over. Some people say, well, why wouldn't I just invest in growth or dividend growth or whatever it is and just sell off? You can absolutely do that. Is it true that dividend income strategies are lower volatility than dividend growth or not necessarily?

Historically, yes. No. No. Historically, yes. Huge blowups in the high yielders. No, no. Hold on. Hold on. No, wait. Historically- Dividend growth is more necessarily. Historically, yes. No. No. Historically, yes. Huge blow ups in the high yielders. No, no. Hold on. Hold on. No, wait.

Dividend growth is more volatile, no? It was. Sorry, it was. There was this brief period around the pandemic. I've managed the strategy since 2001. It was always like a 0.75 beta. Do you remember how volatile the MLPs got? They were so popular with high income strategies.

There was a brief period. So Michael, we're back down to below, like below a one beta to the S&P, but there was this brief period where it actually spiked up around between the energy crisis of 2015 to 2016 through the pandemic. It was terrible because for all these years, I said to people, oh yeah, and if the market's down.

What about the REITs during the GFC? They were some of the highest yielding stocks in the S&P. Some, but if you held the big great ones, you didn't have that kind of money. The answer is generally yes. The underlying businesses that we're talking about are way less volatile. Utilities, real estate investment trusts, companies like Kinnagra and Verizon, and you can pick on Verizon, but it just doesn't have the volatility. Yeah, it doesn't.

It just doesn't. So, over the long run of history, you're correct. But over the past 10 years, there's been a divergence from that. What I like about your strategy is that you have the guts to own 36 stocks and not 360 stocks. You don't look anything like an ETF that is just going to be like, all right, it's rules based. We buy the 200 highest yielding stocks in the S&P you're doing

something that is it's unique is is diverting itself deliberately from what the benchmarks do and I have a lot of respect for that because that's a good question I don't know and I'll tell you why I say I don't know because when I started this strategy in 2001, there were no other, I came up with the name equity income. Now it's prolific. But nobody used the word equity income before that. Really?

And here's why, you didn't need to. Because prior to the dot com boom. Everything paid a dividend. Right, the average dividend yield of the S&P 500 is 3.4. Then the dot com boom happened. Do you guys remember the term old economy and is 3.4. Then the dot-com boom happened. Do you guys remember the term old economy and new economy? Yeah. When stocks are old economy, they are paying a dividend.

Oh, I remember that. And that was so lame. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Why would you own an old economy stock? 75% of S&P names currently pay a dividend. Yes, but they're not high. The dividend of the S&P on average right now is- There are a lot of nominal payouts.

Right. The dividend on the S&P is 1.4%. Microsoft was the biggest dividend payer last year. It was $19 billion. There are a lot of nominal payouts. Right. The dividend on S&P is 1.4%. Microsoft was the biggest dividend payer last year. It was $19 billion. But it has a very, very low yield, which goes back to growth versus income. But to your point about the emotional comfort,

in the beginning of my book, I tell this story and I've told it a million times. But it, to me, was like my aha moment where I have this client who, in 2009, when everything was terrible, you're just calling and saying like, hey, you know, I don't know what's gonna happen now. Mark is down 60%, you know, we were down, I think,

28 or 30%, I don't know what's gonna happen next. Everything's terrible. And this one client said to me, he's like, hey, Jen, is my income safe? And I go, yeah, yeah, yeah, your income's fine, but I don't know what's gonna, and he said, I'm fine, like, chill, you know, chill out, take a chill. And in that moment, I realized that.

And so if we think about risk- You should put him on the phone with the rest of your clients. I always offer to. Great attitude. He's one of the smartest investors. You really invented equity income as a phrase? I think I did. I should have patented it,

because I remember coming up with it. What you think you did? Don't f*** with me. This is almost as ludicrous as Josh saying he invented Blue's Travelers. I did. No, I literally did. How so? First of all, it's Blue's Travel travelers. I did. No, I literally did. How so? First of all, it's blues traveler.

Alright, whatever. He discovered them. No, it's blues traveler. Okay, you invented blues traveler? And actually, it comes from a line in Ghostbusters. Yeah, I invented them. They were like playing dive bars on Second Avenue. A place called Nightingale.

You tweeted about them? No, I bought their first album as a CD and I made it go viral in upstate New York at all the Jewish sleepwalk camps. Are you serious? I f***ing did and I'm telling you right now, I literally invented Blues Traveler. There was no internet. How did you find that about new music? Does Mr. Popper know about this? I actually, I met him but I didn't get a chance to tell him this story.

But they played a show at the Paramount a few years ago, maybe seven years ago. And then at the Paramount in Huntington, after the show, downstairs, there's a lounge for members of the Paramount, my friends who are members, with pool tables and bars and like waitress service. Those guys were cool.

They came down and played pool. I was so nervous to talk to them that like I really, I said a few words while they were shooting pool. I didn't want to like be that guy. I was like 39 years old at the time. But I should have told them, I basically invented you guys. Like way before you had a number one hit on the radio.

You should have told them you own them too. You should have said, I own you. No, I don't feel that way. I don't feel that way. I don't feel that way. Wow. Very good. How did we get here? I just want to say my husband believes he invented upside down ketchup too. What the hell is upside down ketchup? You know how they do the ketchup bottles upside down now so it squeezes right out? John Harrington thinks he invented that. Well that's just insane. Compared to what I believe that's just crazy. All right Jenny you're again one of our favorite people. I want to promote your book really quickly and we'll link to it of course. What is the name of the book? It is called Dividend Investing.

50 Shades of Dividend. Yes, Dividend Investing. Dependable income to navigate all market environments. I like the, yeah, shouts to Harriman House. Charlie Ellis. Yeah, Charlie Ellis. So do you want to know what? How did you get Charlie Ellis to write the foreword? Charlie Ellis is a close friend and a mentor of mine. Living legend.

He's an amazing person. But can I tell you what the graphic is on the front? This will go well with so much stuff. I think I figured it out. It's a hundred dollar bill folded into the shape of a boat. Okay, but here's why. So Charlie has an extraordinary ability to analogize also. And it's really his genius also.

He's the best. Yeah, the tennis., winning the losers game. Right. But one of the analogies that's always resonated with me that he gives is, he says, look, if you're in a little dinghy fishing off of Long Island Sound for the day, it really matters if the tide is coming in or out. You better be back to the dock before the tide's out, or you're going to get stuck in the mud. He said, if you're an ocean liner and you're sailing across the ocean,

and someone says, oh, be careful, the tide's out. Not relevant. It doesn't matter at all. And he said, you want to construct the portfolio so that you're the ocean liner. So it doesn't matter if there's a bear market or a bull market. Doesn't matter if the tide's in or out. You're fine either way.

And I've always thought that that's such a brilliant analogy. And then when I tell that, people say, what amount do I need? And it's different for everyone. If you're spending $100,000 a year and you're going to get $60 grand a year from Social Security, you don't need that big an ocean liner. If you live beyond your means and you're

spending half a million dollars a year and you have a swanky house in the Hamptons every summer, you're going to need a much bigger portfolio. So there's not a set number. Your ocean liner, it's not one size fits all on the ocean liner, but psychologically, I love that idea that you want to set up your portfolio to be the ocean liner. So whether the tide's in or out, you don't care. Really good. Love that.

That's a great place to leave it. We are so we're going to tell people that what's the name of the book again? Dividend investing, dependable income to navigate all markets. Guys go to Amazon buy that book immediately. And of course we will link to it. Um, I want to, I want to end the show the way we usually do, which is find out what you're looking forward to. And you have a, you have a spicy answer here. So let's hear it. It's actually not political, even though it sounds like it is. That's what I was going to guess.

I'm looking forward to 2028. What happens? You retiring? I just want to be done. I just want to be done with all this stuff. I don't want this level of noise. I want to play Spell and Be again. Oh, it's going to be so much worse.

You think in 2028 it's going to be worse? I want the end of 2028. JD Vance versus Gavin Newsom. You think that's going to be a walk in the park? It's going to be worse, alright. It's going to be all insane from here on out, both parties, all day long. How many more executive actions do you think there are going to be between now and 2028? I don't know, one a day? Does that sound about right? Michael, what are you looking forward to?

What are you sure to ask? Not sure. You know what? You were right. I'm looking forward to Daredevil ending. It wasn't a good season. Yeah, so you gotta finish it. The last episode was good, but it was trash. You said you were culturally, pop culturally illiterate. Completely. I have no idea what Daredevil is. Can you just take my word for it if I give you a TV show to watch?

Yes. Last of Us Season 2 is starting on Sunday. No, seriously, I want you to do this for yourself, not for me. I am. I'm writing it down so I don't forget. This is where I am giving advice. I just rewatched Season 1, which aired in 2023. I'm telling you that it was the best pilot episode of any HBO show I can think of,

and I've seen them all. That's number one, so it immediately sucks you in. It's not one of these things where people say to you, no, no, no, give it like six more weeks, you're gonna love it. I'm telling you, if you watch the first episode and you don't like it, that's it, you're done, you're out. We shall never speak of it again.

But I rewatched nine episodes in the first season, and the next season comes out, starts this Sunday. I honestly think it's like one of the best shows of the decade that we're now halfway through. Like it could be top five. Like as good as The Wire. Because at its core, it looks like sci-fi on the surface, but that's not what it is. At its core, it's about people who decide that their mission in life is to defend someone else or take care of someone else. That's what the story is really about. And interestingly, the official

HBO podcast for The Last of Us is actually done by the showrunners. So it's not just like some fans geeking out. The guys come on immediately following the episode and they explain why they made the creative choices they made. So it's just a great overall viewer experience from start to finish. And I don't know if season two will be as good as season one, but like it's worth catching up and giving it a shot. So you gonna do that for me? Yes.

All right, I see you nodding. Gotta be a top five show of this decade, right? Duncan, do we have you in? I never watched it, but. But you will now, right? But hold on, as a vegetarian, it's about the vegetables taking over the earth. I feel like it's like thematically, it's very on brand for you. It's not zombies.

It's fungus. Yeah. But the fungus controls the minds of the people. And that's how we get into the situation that we get into. So it's like a vegetarian feel good story. Like for all of us, a horror story. For you, it's a rom-com. So all I'm saying is give it good story. Like for all of us, a horror story. For you, it's a rom-com. So all I'm saying is give it a shot. Nicole, last of us. Last of us. Can I tell you one other thing? One of the best soundtracks of any show on TV. I can agree. Like how sick is that Spotify playlist? It's like all modern interpolations of like your favorite songs from the eighties. It's just it's endlessly good. All right. That's it from us.

I want to thank our special guest, Jenny Van Leeuwen Harrington of Gilman Hill and the new book Dividend Investing. Thank you so much for being here. Thanks for having me. Catch her on CNBC. How many days a week you doing? Just one. Just one day a week.

Okay. You and I should cross paths more. I know. I'm going to talk to Kevin about that. Alright. Special thanks to the whole Compound crew. Thank you, Michael Batnick. Thank you to all the listeners. Thank you to all the viewers.

We'll talk to you soon. No, I did not.