The Compound and Friends - The Recession We Deserve

Episode Date: November 10, 2023

On episode 117 of The Compound and Friends, Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown are joined by Callie Cox and Malcolm Ethridge to discuss: market sentiment, Robinhood earnings, Warren Buffett and his cash, interest rates, the yield curve, recession calls, weight loss drugs, and much more! This episode is sponsored Simplify. Learn more about their diversification-focused strategies at: https://www.simplify.us/ Check out the latest in financial blogger fashion at The Compound shop: https://www.idontshop.com Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Josh Brown are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. Wealthcast Media, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information. Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here: https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

So Callie, I saw Michael do the most revolting thing. I'm sharing. So we were walking back. Yeah, dude, that was like caveman level. We were walking back. Is this worse than gum? No, this is, I mean, probably not. That's probably worse.

We were walking back from, we did a live podcast at NASCAR Hall of Fame. And everybody jumped in an Uber. And Mike and I and two other people were like, let's just walk back. And it was like a 25-minute walk, and Mike had to go to the bathroom. So, you know, like he had to run into P at a bar, basically. Yeah. So fine. So

he goes in, nobody's really paying attention to him, he goes to P, and then I think you got a... No, no. Or you said, I'm buying a drink? Well, there was no... It's not a New York bar. There's nobody in the bar. So I can't just be like, hey, I'm using your bathroom. So I went to the bar. Now tell a story. You're in the South.

You can do that. But wait, you went into the bathroom first and then came out? No, no, no. I ordered my drink. Oh, you ordered it. Okay. So I have a different trick. Oh, what you thought I did was, that would have been disgusting.

No, no, no. I know what you did. I know exactly what you did. I watched the whole thing. I just didn't know the order. So he ordered a drink, went to the bathroom, came out, and what did you—an old-fashioned? Yeah. It was very good.

So we're all standing outside waiting for him. He puts a straw into it. Like a Starbucks straw. Yeah. Like a soda straw. Like a soda straw, leans over it, inhales it in one gulp. An entire— It was a small—

Dude. He comes out of the bar. He's like, all like alright let's go guys so you ordered the drink so it wouldn't be awkward to use the bathroom or you really wanted that drink

no I I really wanted to use the bathroom you don't have to do that in Charlotte I'm using your bathroom interesting no no no no

southern hospitality I would expect the person from Charlotte to come to New York and think that not the other way around well I'm a special type of New Yorker in Charlotte they would probably just be like, sure, go ahead.

It's right in the back. Yes. Yeah. My house is down the street if you really got to go. Yeah. Well, you can't do that shit in New York. It was not a full-sized drink. It was probably like an ounce and a half. It was aggressive. Okay, but I'm picturing the straw in the drink. But no, my point is if you know you're going to inhale this thing just to use the bathroom, why an old-fashioned? That's the question. So why not water?

Why not a shot of vodka and just be on your way? Or a Sprite. Sprite. And it was a really good old-fashioned, and I asked her for a Togoka. She said, we don't have any. So I said, okay, I guess I'm drinking with a straw. It was such a good drink that he drank it

in one second. Here's the trick in New York because New York, you ain't walking into a place and being like, just like going to the bathroom.

I taught my kids this. I've done that a billion times. I've got thrown out of several hotels that way. They don't love it. Really? You say I'm meeting somebody and then you just run.

Oh, so we do. So here's what we do. Thank you, John. So my wife and kids, let's say we're in Manhattan or just walking around shopping, whatever. Somebody has to go to the bathroom. I taught my kids this.

One person walks up to the hostess and asks, may I please see a menu? And she's, oh, sure, here's the menu. And the other three just book right past. So once I taught my kids that, they wanted to do it at every restaurant we passed. It became a game for them. Just for fun.

Just for fun. They were conning hostesses all over Manhattan. Callie, did you fly in or were you here already? Yeah. So I flew in. I did the little swift swap with y'all. I've been here in New York since Monday night. And y'all have been down in Charlotte for most of the week.

Watch anything good on the airplane? It's an hour-long flight. That's right. That was surprising to me. It's an hour and 20. It was crazy. I thought it was much longer. What's the flight from D.C.?

45. 45 minutes. Amtrak's faster. Up and down. Yeah. Yeah, but you spend so much time at the airport. Amtrak's faster. I live by Union Station in D.C.

So literally, like, I walk. What neighborhood is that where Union Station is? Union Station in DC, so literally, like, I walk. What neighborhood is that where Union Station is? Union Station? That's the, okay. Like, right off the H Street corridor. They call it Capitol Hill, but I don't live in Capitol Hill. Did you grow up there? Mm-hmm.

Grew up in Northeast. Okay. You love it? Love it. All right. Awesome. All right. Guys, oh, did you see this? Las Vegas Sphere lost $98. All right. Awesome. All right. Guys, oh, did you see this?

Las Vegas Sphere lost $98.4 million. Yeah. And the CFO quit? Wait, what? That fast? I didn't see the CFO. It just opened. This is a public company.

I saw they had Dolan yelled at him and he quit or something. Yeah, this is, so Dolan's not the best. The Sphere in Las Vegas reported an operating loss of $98.4 million for the fiscal quarter. One quarter ending September 30th. Well, I guess they didn't have anything going on there. Of course they lost money. Additionally, lost its chief financial officer as Gautam Ranji has resigned. Exit was not a result of any disagreement with the company's auditors.

It sounds like there was a bout of yelling and screaming from CEO James Tolan. What a shame. What a shame. He'll be back. He'll be back. It happens. Yeah. Yeah.

Constructive thing to say about this, though. Our global market strategist, Ben Laidler, just published a report on the music industry and how the industry has grown and diversified and basically how to invest in it. He's very good at like the thematic research. And I basically want to look at that and reconcile it with everything we're seeing with Taylor Swift and Beyonce and moving into theaters. And if there's like this whole new thematic. Taylor Swift saved the economy.

She did. Okay. She did not. She's the NVIDIA of economy. She did! Okay. She did not. She's the NVIDIA of music. I mean, seriously, though.

She is the NVIDIA of... Yeah, that's a good comparison. You're way more dialed in than I am, too, because on that story

I was going to give you Jay-Z lost 92 bricks. How did that happen? No clue. Okay. But I know he made it back. Oh, yeah. So, you know,

Dolan, this is not the last one. Okay. But I know he made it back. That's, so, you know. Dolan, this is not the last one. I like the Raven shirt. I don't think I've seen that before. I'm too grateful to have the Raven shirt. I know what it is. I'm with you.

I feel you. When we, uh, I was in Vegas over the weekend and when I landed, I was on the tarmac for an hour, which is always fun, right? And the lady next to me would not stop talking on the phone loud. It was very odd. On speaker? No, thank goodness. Why is every phone conversation a speaker phone conversation?

He's a speaker phone guy. But it was very weird. She wouldn't stop talking. And it reminded me of the scene in Curb where Larry's at the restaurant and there's somebody on Bluetooth talking. Larry just starts talking to nobody in front of him. And the guy says, excuse me. And Larry's like, what?

I can't talk. You're talking. I can't talk. You're talking. I can't talk. So I wanted to, I'm not that insane. I would have Larry David-ed that situation so fast. Yeah. Oh, I would have just made my own actual call and taken it on speaker.

So I actually do that. I call my wife and describe to her what's happening around me. Oh, to the person next to you? Yeah. That's a move. People with the feet on the thing. And I'm like, yeah, and his feet are on the goddamn armrest.

Can you believe this? That's super passive aggressive. And so my wife, I'll turn the volume. I don't put it on speaker, but I turn it all the way up. And my wife's like, are you serious? Like, and we have this whole obnoxious conversation. You ever overhear a cell phone call but you only hear one side of it

and it's so dumb. You're trying to picture what idiot is on the other end of that call. Yeah. I would say I do that once a day. You make up the convo

on the other end too. No, I just like try to picture who is listening to this. Josh's move is he'll be on AirPods and hold the phone up to his face. I do do that.

I'm not accustomed to the fact that the AirPods that the AirPods, that you can talk into them. So I'll have them in and I'll be like this. That's okay. My parents do that to you. My parents do that to you.

Oh my God. My parents do that to you. She got you. I'm probably closer to your parents than you think. John's coming in. John's coming in. He's zinged. Let's do the show.

What do you think? All right. Compound and Friends, episode 117. Welcome to The Compound and Friends. All opinions expressed by Josh Brown, Michael Batnick, and their castmates are solely their own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of Red Holtz Wealth Management. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions. Today's show is brought to you by Simplify. Launched in 2020, Simplify brings hard-to-reach exposures to the markets with easy to implement ETFs.

2022 was a very difficult year for traditional mix of stocks and bonds. Simplify goes above and beyond just traditional building blocks to add value to client portfolios. Explore simplifies alternative solutions with income and diversification focused strategies designed to help investors navigate today's challenging markets. Visit simplify.us for more information or to schedule a call at simplify.us. Oh my God. 117 somehow we did. What do you think about that? It's a lot.

Feels good. We're just getting started. I'm always surprised at the number. It's going up. I bet you. I'm just guessing next week will be 118. It's going to blow your mind. Very confident in my assertion. All right, go.

Good day. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Compound and Friends, best investing podcast in the world. We have some extra special guests in the house with us today. I am so excited to introduce you. First, a new guest to the Compound and Friends, his first appearance, hopefully not his last. Malcolm is an executive, excuse me, Malcolm Etheridge is an executive vice president and financial advisor with CIC Wealth and the host of the Tech Money podcast, the show where the worlds of technology and personal finance collide.

Malcolm is also the author of the forthcoming book, Financial Independence Doesn't Happen by Accident. Welcome to the show, man. Yeah, man. Thanks for having me. Thanks for coming. What is the published date on the book? Do you know yet? December 15th. Oh, like now forthcoming. Coming, coming.

It's personal finance? Yep. Yeah. What made you want to do a book? The meme stalkery. Okay. You saw enough goofy activity. It was more like the folks like us in the financial media that were just, yeah, those guys don't know what the hell they're doing. Yeah. That butted up against my friends who are like really smart people, right? I went to a

college that's big on engineering. So some really smart talent in the tech world who also were getting caught up in the media stalkery. Exactly. So for people who should know better, it's a way to give you the information so you can do better because a lot of what's out there in the financial independence community, they're selling you inspiration. Yeah. Not a lot of information.

Oh, yeah. We're going to get into that for sure. I agree with that. And I don't hate it. I like that there's inspiration. I just wish there was more substance behind it. You're nicer than me into that for sure. I agree with that. And I don't hate it. I like that there's inspiration. I just wish there was more substance behind it. You're nicer than me. Than there is.

Yeah, yeah. I hate it. All right. Thank you for coming. And our friend Callie Cox, returning champion. Callie is an investing analyst and content creator for eToro, a multi-asset social investment platform that is now one of the largest social investment brokerages in the world. How big? Pretty damn big. 32 million users. 32 million? In 100 countries. Yep. Okay. Pretty big. Okay. You are also building the firm's U.S. research strategy,

including actionable insights for both long-term and short-term investors. Prior to joining eToro, Callie was Senior Investment Strategist at Ally Invest and a Senior Analyst at LPL Financial. Thank you so much for coming back. Yeah, thanks for having me. I'm so pumped. We're thrilled to have you guys back. I think we should start this week with sentiment. I had a little like mini debate today on Halftime Report with Stephanie link shout to Stephanie, not really a debate. The question was, has the economy improved? Like I guess since October, I don't think so. I think sentiment turned and, uh, we could talk more about it, but, uh, I guess let's start with what you're seeing with 32 million, mostly retail investors. Uh, it feels like all

of a sudden the calendar turned over from October to November and people just decided to get bullish. Unless I'm missing something, I don't feel like the economy did anything. I mean, look, so I'll give you some context on our users. We have a lot of high risk, shorter term investors who have the long term portfolio on the side with an advisor. Maybe it's self-directed, but we call them ambidextrous, right? They're doing both. And they feel the pressure to become more active now that inflation is a little bit higher, rates are high, the hurdle is basically higher. So given that context, given the backdrop, we have seen people be a little more tactical around what they're looking at, what they're investing in. They've moved a little more quality.

Of course, they've looked at big tech. They've shied away from the speculative stuff. We've seen less trading. That's the market's done this year. Exactly. It kind of follows the market. Okay. There's still a lot of fear out there.

There's still a lot of, you know, my financial situation is good. But at the same time, you know, this market feels kind of iffy. I don't know. So you see that constant investing. In fact, 93% of investors told us in September, they're still investing the same amount of money that they did three months before that. They're just looking at it a little bit differently. So I'd say there's a little bit of anxiety. What I mean, the start to November is one of the best starts to a month that we've seen, I think, for the S&P, no? So unfortunately, it's 311. So we'll see. But we're down 72 basis points. So it doesn't look like we're going to get the ninth straight day

of S&P 500 gains. And there was a complete washout in sentiment. This is like a mini V-shaped recovery. We haven't seen one of these in a couple of years. But we saw just within the stock market, there was a washout. Whatever you're looking at, short-term, longer-term, breadth measures, was a total washout. right? Whatever you're looking at, short-term, longer-term, breadth measures, was a total washout. And then we got the Powell speech and rates peaked a little bit. And then here you had, ARK had the best week ever last week. The most shorted shit had an incredible rally. And I don't think-

Big Russell rally too. I think it's more or less disconnected from the economy. In other words, the last nine days are not reflective of the economy. It's reflective of people of positioning and Fed speak. And then there we go. Well, hot take there, Michael. I don't think the market was reflective of the economy back in September and October. Yields were going toward 5%. Yes, we knew the economy was strong, but there was a little bit of almost backpedaling there. And I think that's why people got so offsides. And then when Jay Powell came out and said, you know, we're looking at growth risks with inflation risks,

and inflation has made a lot of progress, but read between the lines there. And people were like, oh, okay, so this economy isn't overheating after all. This isn't another inflation crisis. So, you know, maybe I should think about what I'm investing in a little bit differently. And that's why you saw that relief rally. Malcolm, were you getting more phone calls than normal from your clients in September? No. So we took a little bit different tack back in July. Like this year, I don't know what the exact number is on it,

but we have been buying a god-awful amount of brokered CDs this year compared to any other year I've been in this business. So July 31st was probably where the pace really picked up too, because it was getting really hard to make the argument why we wouldn't take five and a quarter, five and a half percent burden a hand when the market was already up 14, 15, 16% leading up to that point. And so for most clients who are actually living on their portfolio, what's the point of taking the rest of the ride from there?

And so for us, it was a really good moment to be locking it in. And so the conversations have been a lot easier to have these days because it's like this is why we did what we did. This is what we were trying to avoid. So for the folks that are a little bit growthier, if that's the way to say that. Maybe they're looking at what's coming down and worried about getting a little more active. But for the most part, we got ahead of this back in July. Yeah, it's like a segmentation question too because every client is different.

So for some clients, that five and a quarter is a no-brainer if that is aligned with what they're investing for. I think what then happens is you get a rally like this one out of nowhere. I don't know if it'll continue. But then the question becomes, all right, that 5% seemed like a no-brainer, but is it still if we're back in the old bull market, like if we're off to the races again? You know what's interesting where the rally started from?

Apple did not have a very good quarter, right? Like if it was a weaker market, Apple would be down a lot since it's reported earnings. And now it's effectively at the bottom. And Apple's up eight days straight since that. Yeah. And Gunjan Banerjee from The Wall Street Journal shared a chart that on Friday, daily call option volume just exploded. We have that right there.

So people get back in. This is why like breadth is really tricky. This is one week change in call option volume? It's just the daily call option volume. It looks daily. And so when sentiment and breadth is at its worst, like people don't consider that that could change on a dime for any number of reasons. Except Bank of America's bull bear chart has been forecasting this for the last two weeks.

So right before we saw that spike that happened to start off November, it got as bearish as it had gotten. And usually when it gets somewhere around that negative 25 spot is where you want to start jumping in if you follow that and trust it. I'm not a technician like you guys. And so I don't necessarily follow that trend, but I do like watching it just to see how closely it tracks. And it was spot on. I mean, right when November 1st happened was the time we crossed that 25% to the downside and when you would have wanted to be piling in into equities. Yeah. We have a sentiment indicator too. Ben Lidler runs it, so I don't have it in front of me. But it compiles the AAII numbers, it compiles the VIX, it compiles cash allocations,

and it was flashing extreme fear too. You're not seeing that in the VIX and a lot of other classic indicators. But it's got to follow stock prices, right? It's got to get to its low once stocks have been selling off for a few weeks. Yeah, in a way, but there are divergences. And I think that was, I don't think it was totally correlated with, you know, the sell-off we saw in the market. VIX chokeslam this week. It's down to 15. I mean, we're like one of the great chokeslams in the VIX that we've seen in a long, I was just ready to write a bearish blog post at 19 and here we are. Josh, why? Okay, I've got a stat for you. So 10.3% sell-off in the S&P.

The VIX only moved eight points. That is the smallest reaction to a 10% sell-off in the S&P on record. Really? Yeah. So what's behind that? The VIX just isn't as sensitive anymore. But also, but it was, this sounds, I want to punch myself in the head, but it was an orderly sell-off. It want to punch myself in the head, but it was,

it was an orderly sell-off. It was orderly. There was no fear. There was no panic. There was no like, like, you know, just red candles just like falling.

It was pretty, it was pretty slow. Yeah. Yeah. I agree with that. I think that there, I mean, there are a few different storylines,

right? There's short-term options, although you're not really seeing the fear in those anymore, which is a little concerning. There are, Nick Colas pointed this out, but there are breaking, the correlations are breaking down a little bit. So you're seeing certain sectors get hit harder than others. So broad market hedges aren't really reflecting that. There are some really like options nerdy specific theories around why the VIX isn't reacting. But

I mean, there is so much data showing that the VIX just is not reactive anymore. So in a way, I was shocked. But another way, I was like, of course, of course, it's not going to go above 20. What happened up until the point that it looked like the Bitcoin ETF was actually going to become a thing and the price of Bitcoin sustained above 30,000? Bitcoin supplanted the VIX as being the volatility metric that told us where at least retail investor sentiment was on a weekly basis. So if you followed any given week, this probably proves 99% true. Over the last three years, if the VIX spikes, the following week, the NASDAQ spikes. Oh, that's interesting.

And now the VIX has become less important up until that point. Now I can't track it as much because people are piling into Bitcoin for a different reason. So sentiment, even though trading is still thin, sentiment is pretty high regardless because everybody's waiting on this BlackRock ETF. So up until that point, though, that was what I was following to see where sentiment was going. What, like investor appetite for risk? Retail investor appetite for risk. Because actually, this year and last year, retail investors had actually been putting in,

I think it's like $50 billion a week in new cash off the sidelines, paycheck money, basically, into the markets. And that was what was driving the NASDAQ and then also what was driving big tech. And so now we don't have that so much because we just saw the stat from Robinhood that came out and said trading volumes from retail investors is down 16% or something like that. And so we don't have the same metric to be able to say retail investors are who are really buying up those magnificent seven stocks the way they were. Because also with that $50 billion a week going in, they were buying the same seven stocks no matter what. And so now it's harder to track that.

We're getting a little bit of divergence like you're talking about. But it was an interesting follow while it lasted. Another interesting divergence. So the S&P is up eight days in a row. The Russell 2000 is down five days in a row. Small caps are getting smoked. Has that ever happened? Like S&P up eight in a row, Russell down five in a row?

I'll look it up for you. I bet the answer is, I would say no. Yeah, I would think no too. But isn't that just performance chasing? The Russell's been down all year. The Nasdaq's been up all year. But it makes sense, right? It's just an extension of what's been going. I could be dead wrong about this.

This is just what I think. I feel like this next two-month period that we're in into the year end, I feel like this next two-month period that we're in into the year end, all that happens is the winners get exacerbated by people who want to look like they were smart and they were long the whole time. That's what I think all of November has been. I think all of November has been institutional investors who missed out on the first five or six months of this year. It's the catch-up trade that says, I got to have Apple on the books. I've got to have Microsoft. NVIDIA is a perfect opportunity for me to buy in the fours now in case it goes out into the stratosphere again. And so a lot of folks are chasing those same names, hoping to God they can make up for lost time.

We'll see, you know, come December. But I just think that they missed out and they, you know, have to focus on where's the next wave. We were going to do this later in the show, but let's do it now. Robinhood reported this week and it was kind of a bomb. And that's with a pretty good S&P up 9% or 10% on the year. I found some bright spots. In Robinhood? Yeah.

Well, let me give people the numbers. I found some bright spots. In Robinhood? Yeah. Well, let me give people the numbers. Total net revenue rose 29% from the same time last year to $467 million. Okay, that's a bright spot. But a lot of that is higher net interest and whatever other revenue is. What is that?

Stock loan? What else do they make money? Margin interest. It's all interest rates. Okay. Transaction revenue is down 11%. 13% drop in equities. I think 55% in crypto.

And then more important to Wall Street than anything else, monthly active users down 16%. Not enough green confetti. Right. We're all out of confetti. So they have 10.3 million monthly actives. Wall Street thought they would see 10.7. Oh, they're not growing their users anymore. That's over. Yeah, because they let a lot of their users blow themselves up and you run out of people.

They're basically the training ground for all the grown-up apps. So Schwab, Fidelity, Vanguard, whoever else is looking at what Robinhood does. We'll get overnight trading soon, right? Because Robinhood has it. We'll get crypto in brokerage accounts because Robinhood has it. It's the Instagram. Free commissions. Right. Because Robinhood had it. Because Robinhood gave it to us.

And so I love it for that. The fact that it's pushing the more stodgy online brokerages to make less money off of us and actually give us features that matter to us in 2023. But eventually it won't exist anymore. Yeah.

Robinhood won't exist anymore. Robinhood, no. What do you think happens if somebody buys it? I think somebody buys it just to get younger. I think Morgan Stanley buys it. You think so? Yeah. Well, I don't know. I mean, when I say I think, I don't know if 10% chance. They bought E-Trade. I wouldn't bet on it, but they bought E-Trade, but they waited 20 years.

They weren't in a rush. You know what I mean? They waited until E-Trade was effectively not worth anything. So I think that they, I think they squeezed all the juice out of E-Trade that they could. And so they need,

we'll see. Jack, we got through some charts. So assets under custody increased 34% to $87 billion, which is, you know,

quite a bit of money. Primarily it's, it's, how much? 87 billion is, what's assets under custody? I guess assets on the platform.

Is that right? So- They only have 87 billion. But, but net deposits, net deposit growth annualized was 18% in Q3 and 27% over the last 12 months. So if you look at the next chart, users are adding $4 billion.

Go back one, please, John. They're adding $4 billion a quarter. That's like not an insignificant amount of money. It's not nothing. Yeah. I think what you have to take away, and I can't speak to Robinhood's intricacies of the business, don't know it. But I think what you have to take away. They're a direct competitor.

They're also a competitor. You can say anything you want. They're a competitor. The mics are open. They're a competitor. We're all trying to make investing accessible over here. But I think what people are missing here is that investing is not the same as trading. And you could talk about a thousand different technicals outside of that. But what

people have been doing, they've been investing, they haven't been trading as much. Trading has kind of frozen over, but that doesn't mean that people are selling off and hiding. Okay. Crypto trading dropped 55% year over year. But crypto ownership, we do a lot of research on this because, look, 70% of our customers own crypto. We can't ignore it. We're almost- What percent?

70%. Wow. In the US. You guys are going to jail. We're crypto natives. You're all going. Hey, hey, we- Lawyer up.

No, I'm just kidding. 70%? We have a big compliance. But how did that come about? That 70% own crypto? Well, look- Crypto native and then dabbled in stocks? They're younger people.

Of course they own crypto. They're younger. You open the account, you get one Satoshi. Every new account. Seriously, though. So our CEO in Israel, Yoni Asiya, big, big into crypto, has been for years and years and years. We started with crypto over in the U.S. That's how we got our name.

Now we're a full-scale broker-dealer regulated under FINRA, doing the whole shebang. I mean, I'm from a traditional finance background. You know that. But we do have the younger customer. And many, many customers came to us saying, I have a financial advisor on the side, but I like what you offer in the crypto space. I believe in this crypto. I believe in where to go. It might be the safest place to own crypto, like in hindsight.

I mean, we're a fully regulated broker dealer. You're FINRA regulated. I don't think Coinbase is. Who else is FINRA regulated doing crypto besides you guys in Robinhood? Fidelity. Fidelity. Right. So transaction-based revenue for Robinhood is 30% off its high in Q4 2021.

Because nobody's trading. Because nobody's trading. Crypto though. That's the holy grail asset to trade. That was the, remember when they had to disclose Dogecoin as a risk in one of their earnings reports because that was such a significant portion of their revenue? No. So, however, coming up the rear is net interest revenue.

In that same quarter that I mentioned at the peak was $63 million. It's now $250 million. Look at this unbelievable chart. So we asked where all the money is coming from. It's interest. The dark green box at the bottom. So that's corporate cash. Okay.

That's just cash in their balance sheet. Then it's margin interest. And then it's cash sweep and all sorts of other things. So $250 million. They'd be royally f***ed if interest rates were— Well, actually, I'd say if interest rates were still at 0%, they'd actually be doing great because people would be trading. Yeah.

It's both sides of the business. It's a barbell strategy. There we go. So Robinhood basically is like a bank. So they're making money on cash, not quite as much as Warren Buffett, but they're doing it. Cash matters.

Cash management matters. Should we do this Buffett thing real quick? Yes. So maybe we'll talk later on in the show or maybe not. So Josh and I just read, or I finished The Fund, the Ray Dalio book. You already finished it? I finished it.

I didn't finish it yet. And I was talking with Ben this morning, and Ben made a good point. It just makes Warren Buffett even that much more impressive. Now, Warren Buffett wasn't around during social media. The comparison to Ray Dalio? Yeah, just Warren Buffett never became a thought leader. He never became Tony Robbins. He was never like holier than thou.

He's just like, this is what I do. I mean, he is, though, a public intellectual. Like he does put out the letter and then go on with that. Substance. There's substance. There's substance. Yeah. What was the line that you had earlier?

There's a lot of something but no substance. Oh, inspiration. Inspirational information. Yeah. What was the line that you had earlier? There's a lot of something but no substance. Oh, inspiration. Inspirational information. Yeah. And that's what the principles were. It was a lot of just fluff. Anyway, let's talk about Warren Buffett. All right.

So Berkshire Hathaway loves high interest rates. They now have $157.2 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term treasuries. This chart doesn't look like it's about to stop on a dime anytime soon. I think he was a net seller of stocks based on the last filing. Yeah. But can we just say that this does not mean that Warren Buffett is bearish and he can't find anything to buy. I agree.

I'm sure he would love to put some of that money to work, but this correlates very much to the size of Berkshire Hathaway. They're an insurance company. They've got to keep a ton in cash because they pay out claims. And so this in and of itself is not a reason like, oh, well, Warren Buffett's bearish. No, no, no. That's risk management and business strategy, not bargaining. Not bearish, but selling.

Say again? That's what jumped out to me. 15.4% of total assets is cash and cash equivalents, which is just slightly above their 20-year average, right? So we got a concrete number that sounds really scary and audacious. But in reality, when you look at it spread across the rest of their portfolio, which is also ballooned out of control because they own so much of Apple, then it suddenly becomes back in alignment with what traditionally Warren Buffett likes To your point, that's exactly right. The value of Berkshire, I guess this is Bloomberg or Wall Street Journal. It's FT.

FT, close. The value of Berkshire's portfolio of shares shrank $319 billion from $353. At the end of June, a decline fueled by the slide in the broader stock market, blah, blah, blah. The value of Berkshire's stake in Apple alone dropped $20 billion. That's last quarter. I'm sure they're up since then. Here's a chart.

So the chart that we're looking at is cash adjusted to total assets. So again, the previous chart where, oh, my God, warrants, stockpiling cash, you can't find anything to buy. Relax. It's literally right at the average. Context matters. That being said, it's up $10 billion. It's at our new record, $157.2 billion. And John, throw this chart up.

This is income generated by the investment portfolio itself. The light blue is dividends. The dark blue is interest. Interest is way less. The money that you're making from interest, there's a lot less volatility that comes along with that than the dividend income. So I would say that Berkshire is having a lot of fun doing very little with this part of the portfolio. It looks like. That's also the case for the entire S&P.

That's right. The yield on the 10-year treasury is better than the yield on the S&P, which makes it really tough to make the argument to anybody. This is where we buy stocks. Even if it is, it's tough to make that argument. But I think that there's a but there. So I people are rate maniacs right now. Like, yes, if you're looking at relatively risky assets. I mean, yeah, me too.

For part of my portfolio. I like the easy button. Yeah. I also like an easy button. I think the thing that irks me or where it gets too crazy is where long-term investors, and I saw this with iBonds, great instrument, but people went nuts over them, where people say, I want that 5% risk-free rate.

And you're like, you're not taking enough risk for your goals. You are a long-term investor. The S&P, you know, for the longest time was 10% plus down from its highs. Look where we are now. Like, look how that worked out. So I have more cash. I also have more cash in my money market account than I ever have in my entire life. And so I'm not doing anything in my stock allocation. I still buy stocks, a hundred percent of my 401k every single week. My brokerage account is still a hundred percent invested in cash, but I have, I'm sorry, a hundred percent invested in stocks. I was nodding too. I was like, yeah, that sounds good. Yeah, yeah, great.

But I have more cash than ever because rates are really attractive and it's great. We've been talking about this, that a trillion dollars that went into money market funds, it feels really comfortable now. That money is not going to make its way back into the stock market until new all-time highs or until people get fearful.

I'm like fearful that they're missing out or chasing. Yeah, into the bull market. They're not phase two. Exactly. It's not as if all of this money and then if the market, if we should be so lucky to see the market fall 30%,

that people would be like, yes, now I'm going to put my money back into the stock market because it's given me a wonderful buying opportunity. That's not going to happen. Well, if Warren Buffett

was more of a thought leader though. Yes. And he came out and said, now is when I go buy Goldman Sachs. I love it. Then we would all jump on board. But do you agree that even though this is rational behavior in the longterm, it's not going to be beneficial for people's portfolios? Unfortunately, I think you're a hundred percent right. Yeah. I can't tell you how often in my career talking to folks who came over to the firm with cash, right? This is back in the day when I was at a bigger wire house. We would have people who would move cash in

from rolling over a retirement account somewhere. And we say, okay, it's time to invest. And they say, well, I want to wait till the market gets a little better. I say, no, no, no, no. That's not how it works. I say, I just want to wait a little bit until the market gets better.

And then the market improves 5%. And they say, oh, well, it's up too high now. Can't buy now. And you say, my God, we have to do something. You've missed out on six months, 12 months, 18 months, two years, and they're still sitting in cash. They capitulate to the market. They're great clients for the firm because that interest margin is great for the firm long term. But realistically, they've missed out on everything.

And then the market will crash. And they'll say, oh, it's a crash. Five years go by and they're sitting there. Cash is a warm, fuzzy blanket. Five years go by and they're sitting there. Cash is a warm, fuzzy blanket. Well, I think what's interesting about now is if rates were 3%, stock people wouldn't even be considering that. At 5%, it might be somebody that is either thinking about NVIDIA or a money market.

Like something about 5% introduces a whole new population to even considering a bond or a CD. I don't own fixed income. Right. I do not like using a savings account. I now have cash in my brokerage account that annoys me every time I look at it. But every time I move new cash into the account, it goes into the money market. That would have otherwise been equity. It would have absolutely been stocks six months from now.

Six months ago. The problem is, and Malcolm, I don't have to disagree with you, but the problem is that people are acting as if these rates are there forever. Now I know you know better, but most people like rates, if and when the Fed cuts, whether it's in 24 or 25 or who the hell knows, they're just going to sort of forget about it. And the 5% will turn into 4. It'll turn into 3. But two weeks ago,

you could have bought a 10-year treasury and locked in a 5% annualized rate. And I did that. That too. And now you can't do that. Now it's 4.6 or 4.5. I don't know where that'll be in two weeks. And you feel like a genius.

Well, Well, he has to share it with us. He has to share it with us. Don't worry. I also own shares of Toast. So if I ever do feel like a genius, I'm always only one earnings call away. I'm not going away very quickly. All right.

So let's say interest rates have peaked. What do you buy? I have some data that's going to prove wrong, whatever you say. Actually, let me do the data first. And then I want to hear what you guys think about this. This is a professor at George Mason University wrote this up, Derek Horstmeyer. And he says, simple answer is stocks, especially small caps and growth. These are the asset classes that fare best during periods when rates peak and then plateau.

So you maybe need rates to fall, just the plateau alone. The caveat is that most of the benefits accrue during the first half of the plateau. That's what I was going to say. The question that I would ask is, okay, what's your timeframe? Because if you're talking about the first 30 days after rates fall, that's going to be a very different answer

than the first year after rates fall. John, give me a chart. Okay, so the pivot point in my mind, obviously, is if- Hold, hold. So this is what Michael's saying. The turquoise is the first half of the interest rate. You see small caps have done 27%.

Growth stocks have done 26%. Large cap, it looks like 21. Emerging markets, 21. But then look at the pink. That's the second half of the interest rate peak. And you see those are much lower return numbers and some are even negative. So I thought that was really interesting because I don't think I would have predicted that prior to seeing this. Now, let Kelly give us the time horizon, because I don't know what the first half and the second half actually is. Of the plateau period.

Yeah, I mean, I don't know from this study what the plateau period is. Usually, Fed plateau periods or pauses are seven or eight months. I say that like thinking back to 1990, the average Fed pause, seven or eight months. Something like that. Is that it?

Yeah. Okay. Yeah, I'm talking between the last hike and the first cut. Yeah, and it's been longer and longer as we've gone throughout history. But, of course, it doesn't happen a ton. I mean, for me, the pivot point really is are we getting a recession or not? So when I think about, okay, the Fed is done here and their next move might be lower, my thought goes to what could make them cut.

And I think the rate sensitive sectors are an obvious trade here, but I almost think sectors aren't the call you're making. It's style. Oh, so you have to. Yeah. So we like the term quality risk. It's a little jargony, but I think it explains how you should still be involved in the market, even though the Fed is pivoting here. But you have to be a little more selective. So obviously, the economy is slowing. There's immense pressure on the economy. We're at 5% rates right now. Yeah, that's why they plateau. Exactly. Exactly. But at the same time, this is a bull market until proven otherwise. Bull markets tend to, I'll say this, bear markets tend to happen with recessions. We don't see a recession.

The economy has been incredibly resilient, but we see the economy moving that way. So prepare yourself, but don't let go of risk entirely. Look at the companies that are profitable, self-funded, and sit in those rate-sensitive sectors. So that rules out dumpster diving into the Russell growth. I mean, small caps right now, small caps over the next three or six months look pretty unattractive because they have the double whammy of slowing growth and high rates. Three or six months? Oh, three or six months. Yeah, three or six months. You scared me because I was like, I got to sell IWM.

Please don't do anything that I say. None of this is investment advice. What do you do if you think rates have plateaued? None of this is investment advice. What do you do if you think rates have plateaued? Or do you, again, maybe the question is like, do you do anything differently for any type of client? Or do you just like kind of keep that in the back of your head that that's what could be happening?

So the answer I know is the right way to go, but I might, I probably won't do it, is you got to buy financials, right? Coming out of it, all of a sudden rates plateau. The next six months, two quarters is when banks tend to do really well, especially with the yield curve doing its best to uninvert. We get an uninversion, de-inversion, whatever, to normalizing in the rate curve. All of a sudden, banks are the thing you want to own.

I never want to buy banks, though. And so it's tough for me to, even though I know that's the thing to do, it's really tough to buy bank stocks no matter what the market is doing. So I probably would go small caps because we know that coming out of a recession, that's usually the place that does really well for two quarters, maybe three quarters. But then again, you're timing it with something like IWM and then getting out of the way. This is true, too. and then getting out of the way. This is true, too. Like in the first year of, I think, the past six bull markets we've seen, small caps have outperformed the S&P by an average of 28 percentage points.

I think it was like a minimum of 9 percentage points each year. But, I mean, this bull market is obviously, and yes, I believe we're in a bull market until proven otherwise again. We're not supposed to be, though. 2023 is not supposed to be what it is. We could have already taken our medicine and gone through the pain and been on the other side of it, if not for NVIDIA, if not for the AI craze. I'm so glad you said that. I've been saying this for months.

We would be on the other side of this thing and talking about the good times of here again, but now we've stretched out our punishment because we got so AI happy. No, the true punishment is a recession and I'm so happy we're not there yet. And I really hope we didn't do it yet. You think we already should have done it. I feel like if you didn't have that burst of enthusiasm for large cap tech owing to AI, probably we would have made at least revisited last October's low. I think for Malcolm and I are kind of on the same page. It feels like being a kid and my mom's like, wait till your dad gets home.

Well, now you got this whole long period where it's like, let's just get this over with. Yeah. Well, the Russell 2000 revisited last October lows. Yeah, we did it there.

But what do you think the Russell is doing this year? It's not that bad. Like, if you say like- Is it a negative two? Yeah, it's negative. Yeah, you said AI saved the S&P 500.

I don't necessarily disagree with you, but the Russell 2000 is only down 4%. But it's not though. It's the S&P 500. I don't necessarily disagree with you, but the Russell 2000 is only down 4%. But it's not, though. It's the S&P 7 saved the entire market. Yeah. When I look at individual stock charts,

I see so many more Disneys, which had a nice bounce this week. But I see so many more charts that look like that than I see charts that look like Microsoft and Apple. Let me give you a recap real quick, right? So eight days explain the majority of the gains in the S&P this year, right? So January 6th, very weak jobs report. Market rallies, 2.3%.

I'm talking about the S&P specifically, right? Then March 3rd, 10-year treasury yields dropped below 4.6%. Market rallies, 1.6% that day. 1.6% again, bank regulators saved SVB. Then First Republic, right? Banks came in, placed deposits of First Republic. Market rallies 1.8% again. April 27th, Meta Facebook shares rally on better than expected earnings. That's 2% in one day. So you had to own those two stocks. Sorry, you had to own Meta to get that 2% of the rally that day. So you had to own those two stocks. Sorry. You had to own Meta to get that 2% of the rally that day. Then you fast forward to May, Apple earnings really surprised everybody.

They got an upgrade at JP Morgan, 1.8% that day. And then you got to fast forward all the way to November 2nd, when the 10-year treasury yield started to decline again after the Fed meeting to get another 1.9%. That was a big day. That was last week. If you were out for any of that, though, right? I stopped at May. Oh, so I just bought the day before those days. I'm crushing it.

Now, right. You can't – every year, you can't miss those big days. And you have no idea what's going to bring them about. Like in this case, they were bond-related, earnings-related. One of them was a Fed day, I think you said. Right. You don't know. And you don't.

And some of those same events were negative days this year. Like an Apple earnings date might have coincided with a negative day. So you don't know how they're going to go, but you can't miss them and get a market return. And there's a fantasy that exists out there that you can dance in and out and, you know, know when that's going to happen. This year is another example of why you really can't do that. Yeah. I would take it a step further and say that the reason why people, the reason why the market has been so strong this year is because it feels like we shouldn't be here.

Fear is one of the most supportive dynamics for markets. I compare it to getting punched in the stomach, but knowing it's about to come. So like, if you know you're getting punched in the stomach, like tense up, tense up, it makes it hurt less. Have you ever been punched in the stomach, Callie? I probably have by my brother. I'm one of six kids, so I'm sure I got punched in the stomach as a kid. But people have been fearful all year. Cash has been piling up as stock prices are going up. And that in a weird way has cushioned us from a worse sell-off because people hedged. People got out in time. And then headlines got worse, got better.

People went in, went out. We're not blindsided by risk right now. We are clenching for it. I think that's what sparked the rally, is that people were so bearish coming into 2023. It was going to be an earnings recession. It was going to be this. It was S&P. And nothing has materialized yet

except for a frozen housing market. But outside of that, it has not, like really nothing has bled over. If you just looked at the overall economy and overall earnings and margins, like things we braced for impact and we haven't impacted yet.

I think the big things are that the labor market stayed abnormally strong, way beyond what anyone expected. Prices keep coming down. And retail sales, the consumer... Consumer spending is still out of control. Consumer is just crazy. We braced for impact as investors,

but Taylor Swift and Beyonce fans didn't brace for anything. No, they went for it. They were 40 and it was 1999. Four-digit tickets. They're not showing you any sign that they care about 5% of your strengths at all. Taylor Swift is now a billionaire because credit card balances are at an all-time high. Okay.

Okay. I have a bun to pick with this. Okay. So, contacts matter so much for credit card levels. Let's sing it, though. Let's sing it. As Taylor. I wish I could pull lyrics out of my head right now.

I'm not— Wait. Hold on. Why do you say that? Why do I say credit? The thing about credit card levels? Okay. Credit card levels. Yes. 1.1 trillion. That is a big, scary number compared to cash in the bank. It was around the lowest in 20 years. Is that true? Yes. What's cash in the bank? Cash in the bank is total household deposits. I think it's fed. No, no, no. What's the, what's the number? Oh, I'd have to pull it up. I know that the ratio is 6%. Is that a true household or does that include corporate accounts?

True households. It includes nonprofits, but you can't break out the nonprofits. Well, I ask that because I have an issue with those numbers anytime folks like JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo say, we're seeing the highest level of deposits we've ever seen, right? And a lot of that is people hoarding cash in corporate accounts. In my estimation, it's people bracing for the worst of times. And so they're drawing on those credit lines. They're getting SBA loans they may or may not need yet. All those things that we know to do and we think something really bad is going to happen. Like you said, we're bracing for impact. We've been doing it all year. And I think that's where the cash is going. It's just sitting on deposit at those banks. But they get to intermingle it

together and say cash has never been higher on deposit without backing out the fact that some of those are commercial accounts. I mean, it's Fed data. I could see an argument for that. I kind of just have to go with what it is. I was talking to a reporter today and I was like, look, it's like saying, oh my God, I'm so worried about my friend. They bought a $30,000 sports car, financed the whole thing. But then you don't know that your friend has $100,000 in the bank earmarked or 30K, 30K in the bank earmarked for that use. Credit card debt is a tool. Credit card debt can be very, very bad, especially in a rising rate environment.

But more and more people are using it as a tool. And all the other data that I see around me with the labor market, with consumer spending, with American household strength, tells me that there isn't as much to be worried about. Tell them, Callie. So you need to see buy now, pay later balances spike in order for you to get concerned.

Or more delinquency, or like auto delinquencies. A firm just reported, and I haven't read the report yet, but I saw the headline. Their delinquencies are not bad. Here's total card spending per household from Bank of America. They serve a lot of households. So total card spending did fall 0.5% year over year in October. So the spending's not on fire, but it's certainly just based on this,

nothing to necessarily be alarmed at either. Yeah. Like at all. Until Taylor tours again. I think that encapsulates it well. Hey, I'm going to Taylor in Madrid. Are you really?

It's so funny, yeah. I mean, I'm not a Swifty Swifty, but like, the show was pretty damn good and everybody told me about it. I would go. I don't think I would pay for it,

but if someone's like, do you want to come see? I want to like be part of the zeitgeist. Yeah. I'd go. And everything I'm hearing, people who didn't get tickets to Taylor Swift in the US got them in Europe during the Ticketmaster sales. Or they're like, no, you know, I didn't get a ticket.

But like, if you can get me a ticket, like, please. Let's do this thing. Hold on. Before we move on to that, just sticking with spending. So the New York Fed has this data that broke out credit card delinquencies by generation. And millennial credit card delinquency exceeds pre-pandemic levels, not anything drastic,

but baby boomers, Gen X and Gen Z are at or near their 2019 averages. Okay. So a little bit higher. Subprime auto, I'm sure that's been going around. Subprime, auto is at the highest level in like 20 years. Yeah. But not bad.

It's really not bad. It's not surprising either. Which part? Millennials have been struggling since the 99 and the 2000. So it's pretty much on brain, right? If you just consider, realistically, millennials' parents went through the tech wreck in the 2000s. You're old enough to hear about it, kind of understand why is our car getting taken away on a tow truck. Then you get it together, and I myself personally graduated into the 2008 financial crisis.

Worst timing ever to find a job. Occupy Wall Street. Right. So I graduate with a bachelor's degree thinking I'm going to go into advertising. And there's people with PhDs literally going out for the same entry-level positions as me. And I'm like, this is upside down, right? This isn't what I was promised. They told me, go get a college degree and the world's your oyster. And then you finally get on your feet as a person approaching your 30s or just after your 30s, and COVID hits you in the face. And so every time you felt like you were starting to see

progress and getting it together, you know, where your parents might've been able to help you launch a little bit more, they're in trouble during the tech wreck. You graduate into the worst job market in God knows how long. And now COVID punches you in the face the moment you get a chance to really get things going. So it doesn't surprise me that specifically millennials fare worse off than everybody else. Don't the millennials wear that shit like a badge of honor too? A little bit? It depends on the day.

I think you're speaking to two of them. No, I know. I'm a lot of it. Michael is too. I graduated in 08. It depends on the day. How old do you think I am? No, you can't.

Don't answer that. No, but there's like a little bit of like, you know, don't tell me I'm a millennial. Like, you know, I've been through it. Yeah. Yeah, I've been through it. Yeah. Yeah, I've been a nom. Yeah. But I think, okay, I have thoughts. So I think people, A, forget that. And I'm so glad you told that story, Malcolm, because it's so true. I mean, I say all the time, I was in high school during the financial crisis. So obviously not on Wall Street, not looking for a job, fortunately. But both my parents lost their jobs. Like I felt it. During the great financial crisis? Yeah, during the great financial crisis.

My dad was an electrician, residential electrician. My mom worked at a construction company. Boom, gone. Sounds like both of them would be pretty busy right now, though. Well, they're not in those professions. Right, no. We're older. But the other thing is, so I think millennials have this incredible resiliency. Like, I actually see it as a good thing. And from the data that we see, we do a lot of survey data of our own customers. I mean, customers on different platforms. Millennials, and this is a complicated thing to say with a lot of asterisks, but on a broad scale, millennials are actually doing quite well over the past few years. They report that they're more confident about the economy, their

financial situations, the job market. I mean, look at the guts of the job market too. Where's the wage growth happening? Well, where it should. It's the right age group that they should be getting wage increases. They're taking over. Yeah, and I'm damn proud of the millennials. I'm like, yeah, get it.

Now let me slow you down as an Xer. Okay, go. Don't talk to me about resilience. We raised ourselves. I thought it would take you longer to get to the latchkey thing. Our parents had no idea where we were ever, all day, seven days a week. Like, it doesn't matter. It's not a contest.

You guys are pretty resilient. I would say financially you've been through worse than the Xers. One thing that the Xer literature doesn't share is that we grew up in the longest bull market of all time. I was five years old in 1982. So I didn't know any hardship until I was already in my 20s. So the Xers kind of had a really nice tailwind courtesy of the boomer-driven 82 to 2,000 bull market. So you guys actually are financially – you've been through more shit than my generation had been through. But as we do this whole my generation, your generation thing, what's also getting left here is –

By the way, I'm not that old for the list. I'm not that much older. The boomers have been making out every single decade on record. Every single time. I'm so glad you said that. It's like, oh, the economy's not great. Here's another tax cut. I totally agree.

And they have had unprecedented 0% interest rate period of time during which they had massive portfolios. And I don't think either of our generations are going to have that when we're the same age. I think every generation has its gripe. Because you could say that boomers, as they started earning money, they got cut in half in the tech recession. And then as they were getting back to even, they got the GFC. So every generation has seen some shit. And their parents were World War II vets.

Well, yeah. None of us want to compare that. Yeah, every generation has seen some shit. So, okay, S&P 500, there's all sorts of wacky stuff going on because there's so many companies that are falling. A lot of companies are not. That's very intelligent. I'm glad I said that. So 35 companies in the mid cap, 400, are now larger than the smallest 50 members of the S&P 500. A lot of weird things happening, but the S&P committee can recalibrate or reconstitute whenever they want. Like there's no set rule.

There's no date. The Russell has a date. Yeah. The Russell does. The S&P could have a committee meeting and just decide. Yeah. And they do that about like once or twice a month. So check this out.

So there's a list of the bottom companies. This is from Bloomberg and the S&P 500 by market cap. And you know some of these names, not all of them. You know Alaska Air. You know SolarEdge. It's been in the news. This is one of and the S&P 500 by market cap. And you know some of these names, not all of them. You know Alaska Air. You know SolarEdge. It's been in the news just as one of the solar companies that's crashing. You're saying these are the ones that could fall out because there are larger mid-caps that could... I bet you most of those mid-caps are tech. So Norwegian, Cruise, Comerica, these are the six billion and under S&P 500 companies. And the mid-cap, that's kind of nuts.

Interactive brokers is a $34 billion market cap. I wonder if trading is up there. Maybe. Doesn't interactive brokers do a lot of custody now? Yeah. And they do a lot of hedge fund stuff. A lot of institutional stuff. Yeah.

They're big into institutions. So, all right. So people who are paid to trade never stop trading. So here's some more numbers. The S&P average market cap is $80 billion. The mid cap is $6 billion. The index provider that we just discussed. So they are more likely to make a move based on M&A, right?

Like when they're heading this force and they have to do something. They're not necessarily going to reconstitute just because there's some weird shit going on. Yeah. I think that's what they said in the story that this was pulled from. But I wish I had something intelligent to say about this. Do you know what the biggest non-S&P 500 U.S. company is right now? Is it like a private company? Yeah.

What is it? No, no, no, no. Excuse me. Publicly traded but not in the S&P 500. Take a guess. Oh, my God. It was Tesla forever. Yeah. I mean that's what came toly traded, but not in the S&P 500. Take a guess. It was Tesla forever. Yeah. I mean, that's what came to mind, but Tesla's in the S&P.

Wait, I feel like I know what it is. It's Uber. Uber. It's $110 billion. Wow. It just made a—I was talking about this today. It just made a new 52-week high. They haven't had a full year of profitability yet.

I was going to say, have they made that? But it's $109 billion, so it's going in say, have I made that? But it's 109 billion, so it's going in. It's like it's just a matter of when it goes in. I don't know if it's going to get a huge reaction, though, because everybody knows that

it's going to go in. So I did a study when I was at Ally when Tesla got, when they announced the two-week period between when they announced Tesla would join and then when Tesla actually joined.

That stock went nuts. Yes. And this is actually more common than you think. I don't have the data off the top of my head but there is like an S&P trade there and Uber everybody knows Uber it would not shock me if we saw the same thing really I'd be surprised I don't have a crystal ball I think actually I think Uber very well could be part of whatever the next magnificent fill in the number is. We're looking at a need for rotation away from the Mag 7, right? Yeah.

I absolutely believe Uber could be one of those companies. It's a platform company, right? I mean, it could be the everything app that Elon Musk covered so badly. It just won't be on x.com. But it very well could be the everything. I mean, it basically is responsible for moving people and things from place to place. And it's gotten very good at that business and advertising to you along the way while it does it. Yeah. That's not a bad business to be in.

I don't own it personally. I don't want to be invested in that business. But I don't think it's a bad one. And it's not a hard story to understand as a retail investor. The problem is they haven't been profitable until recently. Do we care about profits though as retail investors? Yeah. Yeah, because the market does.

Good question. This year the market does. Two years ago the market didn't. So like depending on the interest rate environment, we may or we may not. But they are profitable now. And I think they're like hinting that they might do a buyback, which I don't really understand. Uber and buybacks. Wow.

She thought you'd never see the day. But this stock came public at I think like the first tick was 40 or 50 in 18 or 19. Yeah. Then the pandemic hit. You thought it was the end of the world for Uber because nobody can go anywhere. Yeah. And the food delivery business exploded. Yeah.

It saved them. They would have been bankrupt 100% if not for delivering food. And you know what else? Lyft reported. I mean, Lyft is just, it's done. Yeah, but Lyft is fixing itself too. How?

Lyft has growing revenue and falling costs, which is they have a new CEO in there to do that. Stock still looks like junk. I don't want to buy it. Can we put this chart up, John, from Willie? Just one thing on 2023, just to kind of button up everything that we've been saying. This is 2023 year-to-date returns, S&P,

and then the median S&P 500 stock. This is two different worlds. So for the listeners, the S&P 500 is up, I guess, is about 13%. The median S&P stock looks like it's down 3%. So if you're not in the index or you're not overweight, the biggest components in the index, you had a very different ride this year. I was going to say somewhere in there is the trend line that is Apple. Yeah. Oh, 100%.

That's right. But look when that separation happened, guys, it really happened in March. And, and that's, I think financials are a big part of that. And then just doubts about the growth in the economy. Turns out the S and P index doesn't really worry as much as the median stock worries or the median or the owner of the median stock worries. Do you guys think we're getting a recession in 2024? It depends on the consumer. Do you think we are? Do you think we're not? Of course, it depends on a million things.

Oh, my God. Malcolm? I don't know how we can't. I don't know how we can't. I think higher for longer is a real thing. I think we ought to be treating that with a lot more respect than we actually are. And I also think we might get another hike in December,

which will really set things off. And so I don't might get another hike in December, which will really set things off. And so I don't see how we get out of this without- What would cause the hike in December? Like a crazy November jobs report? So I'll give you the legitimate answer, then I'll give you my cheat code answer. So realistically, I think because we have two more inflation reports and the breadcrumbs are the Fed governors who have come out more hawkish in the last couple of weeks keep talking about that, the fact that there's two more CPIs. They've seen some stuff. They've seen some things and they're tipping their hand toward it. But then separately from that, Roger Ferguson said we're getting another hike and he hasn't been wrong all along the way, right?

Former head of TIAA and former Fed governor. He's been spot on every single time. I won't doubt him at this point. But I don't see how with them coming out and talking so much about CPI, CPI, CPI. We got two more reports, guys. We get a chance to... So I think we

should at least be giving it more than, I think, 10% chances where we are now. I'm like 55, 45 towards a recession. It sounds like you're a little bit closer to— I'm 100 and 0. No, stop. Are you?

Yeah. Bold call. Jan Hatzias from Goldman just came out and downgraded his recession expectation to 15%. And that's when it comes. We were waiting for that. expectation to 15%. And that's when it comes. Right. We were waiting for that.

We were sitting with Cam Harvey, the godfather of the yield curve indicator, North Carolinian, two nights ago. And he emphatically says, next year is the recession. Do you guys not believe the yield curve matters anymore? So I think that prior to this conversation I had with him,

I think I had thought that it had been inverted way too long prior to past instances, but he kind of set us straight on that. He said it's an average length of time so far. The, like the clock hasn't run out. In 2006, it went 22 months before the great recession. And we're 13, we're in month 13 now. So we could go a much longer period. I think it was June 2006 is when it first, no, that's not right. February 2006 is when it first inverted. It took 22 whole months before it finally tipped into recession. And what happened back then, you had the former Fed chair and you had the current Fed chair. You had Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke both on TV

in 2007 saying the yield curve is not as much of an indicator as it used to be. It's washed up. Sit him on the bench. He doesn't know how to win anymore. And then all of a sudden you keep watching. And Janet Yellen actually was on

San Francisco Fed chief. Janet Yellen was on TV in mid-2007 telling people, Yul Kerr doesn't mean what it is. It's so passe, guys. It's so passe. That's how she got the promotion to Fed chair. Callie, what do you think? What do you think? God, I have so many thoughts.

My analyst-y brain is just splitting everything into two. So first of all, with the recession, Mike, I think I sit with you. I'm like a little, I'm a little – I kind of think we're getting there, but I'm hoping we don't for very obvious reasons. In terms of the yield curve – So you're saying you're 55-45? Yeah. I feel like you're more bullish than that though. I hope we don't.

Oh, well, no. That's a different – we all agree on that, I think. I don't think anyone wants anyone to lose their job. I'll put it this way. I need to see clear evidence that we're going to a recession. What are you, what's the number one thing that you, in the labor market? Jobless claims as a percent of the labor force. Well, so that's what I was going to say. There has to be, there has to be a reason why people stop, start getting fired. Haven't we seen a spike in jobless claims in construction and the housing market? Yes. And certain parts of the economy have gone through a recession. Oh, there's pockets of recession. There's pockets of recession. Well,

but that's usually the first indicator. So if you pay attention to recessions of the past, the housing market is the thing that usually starts to give us that canary in the coal mine. First, it's a freezing and hiring, right? We've already had that. No mortgage originators want to hire anybody. Then there's the layoffs. We've actually started to have layoffs from the home builders themselves, which is why their share prices are up so strong this year. Next comes the, what, million or so jobs uptake that it takes to get us to a four handle on the unemployment rate. It's only a matter of time before the same story gets told again, right? We're looking at another Avengers spinoff, and everybody's saying this time is going to be different. But the indicators are there.

To your point, like Disney is a really great example. Disney beat earnings this week. The stock went up big. But they said instead of $5.5 billion worth of cost-cutting, it's going to be more like $7.5 billion. When you hear cost-cutting, yes, you hear increased profits for shareholders. But the other thing that you should hear is less hiring and or probably end layoffs. So to Malcolm's point, like we have already seen companies get religion on spending one by one. And they're doing even more of it now.

All of the big financial firms just, I mean, bloodletting. They are by the thousands laying off staff. That doesn't happen if they think the party's going to keep going. We also, I don't disagree with anything that you're saying. We spoke earlier about like bracing for impact. Companies have braced for impact. Like they've already prepared for the recession. So I'm not saying that that can hold it at bay, but maybe it can for a little't have to be the worst. Maybe it can for a little bit. That I don't disagree with at all. It doesn't have to hurt nearly as bad as we,

we associate recession with 2000, right? 2008. We, we're probably talking more of a COVID-19 recession, right? March, 2020 versus 2008.

I like that 10 day recession. That was cool. We should have— Duncan, you got a percentage probability for recession next year? We're not going to hold you to it. I don't think so. We're just going to put this on social. I don't think it's coming.

Duncan, look in your personal— Wait, hold on, hold on. I like what you're saying more, Duncan. I don't think it's coming. Why? Well, I just— About the yield curve, I was asking Michael about this the other day. At what point was an indicator wrong?

You said 22 months. Like, if you make a call and it takes 22 months, were indicator wrong? You said 22 months. Like, if you make a call and it takes 22 months, were you right? I don't know. That's an interesting idea. You like basketball, Duncan?

I do. Michael Jordan went six for six in the finals, right? Yeah. Did you ever watch a finals with Michael Jordan in it and say,

this is going to be the time he finally doesn't get it done? No. You as a warm-blooded American would never utter those words. You just watch and say, he's gonna do what he does. So you're saying the recession is Michael Jordan? It's 10 for 10. The yield curve is 10 for 10.

The yield curve is 17 for 10. I like those odds even better. Cam says it's 8 for 8. It's 4 since... But COVID bailed them out. COVID bailed them out. Were we going into a recession without COVID? Oh my god. COVID bailed them out. Were we going into a recession without COVID? Oh my God.

We were. The yield curve inverted in the summer of 19. August of 2019. I remember it well. And the economy was fine. But it was picking up like going into 2020. No, we were doing a trade war. We were doing crazy shit already. And we had zero interest rates

because Trump bullied Powell into cutting interest rates three times for no clear reason. Beautiful cuts. And really just, I mean. They were gorgeous cuts. It threw the curve out of whack. Tremendous cuts. It was coming.

The best cuts. One way or another, we were going to get there. All right. Last thing we're going to do today, weight loss drugs. Which one should I take? And do you have a good doctor you could recommend? Oh, I feel awkward answering. Is this the next hype cycle or are there legitimate investment opportunities still remaining in

this space? I saw there was a new approval today. Somebody put out a new, the FDA, this is not diabetes. This is actual weight loss drug approval. There are going to be, I heard, seven or eight more that are currently in some phase of the approval process. Can we make money here as investors? Is it a fad?

Are the implications for fast food stocks, is that a real thing that we have to worry about? I'd love to hear what you guys think. Malcolm, start us off. I can't decide, actually. This is where I am 55-45. I can't decide actually. This is where I am. I can't either. I can't either. Like I am torn between this is absolute nonsense and it's going to fizzle out and it'll find its intended purpose with folks who are like literally obese and need

the medication to help them trim down. And it's a better option than like a lap band surgery, right? But then I also look at Instagram and I look at TikTok and how obsessed we are with being thin and young. And I feel like the canary in the coal mine might have been whatever company I saw it was that was getting FDA approval on the weight loss drug for kids at six. So they were six to 12 range that they were testing and they got FDA approval to start trials there. And I said, there is so much desire from these companies to make this happen. They have so much cash that they've been sitting on from money that was earmarked to go toward COVID-19 treatments and drugs and everything that they didn't actually

spend and didn't need because we got there a lot faster, right? You had Moderna, you had Pfizer and anything that came behind it was a waste of time. And so they just sat on the money, but we do have better technologies to get these things into our systems with mRNA technology and everything else. And so I feel like there's a lot of desire and a lot of money behind the desire to make this work, which means then that there's probably a ton of money to be made in these biotech stocks. But then I think, again, we're also the country that didn't trust our own vaccines, even though we had them first. I mean, so I'm not putting that in my, so I can't decide. Like, I think people care more about being young and thin on Instagram than they do surviving COVID. So I know that's true.

I know that's true. I'm so torn on this. I mean, look, medicine is incredible. I think this development is just so, and I have a personal connection to it too. I don't take Ozempic, but like I have a hormone condition that requires me to take something like it. And the drug and everything I've heard about it, that kind of drug just has made incredible process. People call like metformin is the typical diabetes drug. People call it a wonder drug because it's being studied for like how many, how many diseases it could ward off and

how, you know, it can help you with COVID-19. So anyway, not a doctor, but I am just like blown away by that development. I think it could be a new frontier. I think it's hard to invest in that. I think it's an interesting theme. Well, Lilly just became the largest healthcare stock in America on the back of its diabetes drug, which is one of this class. Metformin. Yeah. And then Novo Nordisk became I think one of the biggest pharmaceutical companies in the world, maybe the biggest by market cap now. And they're Wegovi or which one of them?

They're Ozempic. They're Ozempic. Okay. So people are making money in this. Oh, yeah. That's AMD. Yeah. Where's my arm holdings?

What's the arm holdings of the group? Where can I make money on the way out? Right. That's the hard part. That's the hard part. It feels like all the gains have been made. Are people trading these stocks or have they not discovered them yet? Yeah. In Q3, I think Lilly and Novo – so Novo actually had the biggest gain on our global platform in terms of number of holders from Q2 to Q3.

Okay. Lilly was in the top 10. So retail is in these stocks already. Yeah. They see what's happening around them. They go on TikTok. If it's moving, they're on it. I think I'm just the loser that's sitting on the sideline trying to figure out.

I don't own them either. I don't own them either. I don't own them either. But then, okay, so on the flip side, should I be shorting Coca-Cola? Should I be shorting Kraft Time? That's the other way to express it. That happened. I would be a buyer. I feel like that's an excuse.

Those names got crushed. But they can always go to zero. Coca-Cola? The idea of Ozempic, for example, the folks who are on it in the early talk about it is like you don't crave those things anymore. Or alcohol or cigarettes. Yeah, you're drinking less alcohol, if any at all now. Less snacks. You're not smoking cigarettes.

You're not eating a bag of chips. You're not drinking that soda. So all of the stocks that those things touch are got to go to zero, right? Long term. Or. Come on. You think Coca-Cola can go? Or does big beverage go to the government and say, slow this down.

We don't like the way this is going. Never fade big beverage. No. Big beverage versus big pharma. Who do you think has the bigger lobby? Big sugar. Big sugar. Big sugar.

So, but what we are hearing is that Chipotle and others are reformulating their menu for a world in which 5% of their customers are not craving a burrito. They're going to react to it. I think they'll find a way to make money no matter what. But they're not just going to sit there.

Like Ozempic-sized burritos? Why don't they just feed me the Ozempic? I guess what I'm saying is, can that be a topping? Like shredded cheese, shredded lettuce, peppers, Ozempic. So I don't, because I don't want to do more needles. I already take a monthly needle

for heroin. So I don't also want to have, but if they could feed it to us in pill form, it's going to go. Okay, the one thing that people miss about this medicine in pill form it's gonna go okay the one thing that people miss about this medicine unfortunately got the personal thing the one thing that people don't realize is that you can't eat like willy-nilly on them you get so so you don't want to but that's also not completely true it's like very variable from person to person i mean i don't

take ozempic like to be fair and i'm not a, but with the experience I do have, there isn't, it's not like, oh, I'm going to ignore this completely or like, oh, I'm going to eat this and it's never going to matter and I'm going to get skinny. Like there is something in between. There is you're getting sick or you're, you know, you have eating problems. We don't know what those effects, right. There are studies, but we don't have three decades with these drugs. We don't know. I just want to say one more thing about don't have three decades with these drugs. We don't know. And that's a great point. I just want to say one more thing about me drinking my old-fashioned with one sip.

Do you really? Yes. There was three people waiting for me. If it was just you, I would have said, come on in and sit with me. Zero percent chance. I didn't want to be rude. Okay. That's all.

Great. Thank you for that. Did you guys have fun on the show today? So you're on as impact. Yeah, basically. Yes? This was great. Yeah, this was awesome. We loved having you. Thank you so much for coming. great thank you for that did you guys have fun on the show today so you're on as impact yeah basically yes this was great yeah this was awesome

we loved having you thank you so much for coming we always end the show as Callie knows we always end the show with favorites and what we want to hear from you guys

is what you're listening to what you're watching what you're reading and what the by the way 100,000 people will watch or listen to this.

So tell people— Better be good. Better be good. So better be good. No, tell people what you're feeling these days. We would love to hear it. Callie, you can start. Okay, so I'm reading Tiny Beautiful Things by Cheryl Strayed. The Michael Batnick story.

Okay, seriously. So Cheryl Strayed was an advice columnist for this kind of obscure blog. She started doing it for free. She was a ghostwriter for other books. So she started writing this advice column and she picked up a cult following. Beautiful writer. And this is a book that basically pulls together the best of her advice columns. I have already sobbed on three columns in.

There are like 40 in the book. What are you sobbing from? It's like my husband just died. How do I get on with my life I'm three columns in. There are like 40 in the book. What are you sobbing from? It's like my husband just died. How do I get on with my life? Really deep life stuff. But then how she answers it, you know, the analogy she uses, how she taps back into her own life. I mean, you all know I love the behavioral, psychological, like really thinking about things. And, I mean, just the things she brings to the surface, it's all incredible.

I'll switch gears, say that I'm, of course, reading same as ever. Like, after I finish Tiny Beautiful Things. Shout out to Morgan Housel. This is the sequel, but it's not really a sequel. It's its own thing. Morgan's second book, the first book sold 4 million copies around the world. One of the biggest financial books of our lifetimes.

What do you think of the second one so far? Just okay? I haven't started it yet, sorry. Cheryl Strait has my heart. I'm going to read it after. I hear it's great. We're so proud of our friend Morgan. And so thankful that none of us have books coming out at the same time. I think it's really the big takeaway there.

Malcolm, you got a favorite for us? Yeah. I just finished up 10X is Easier Than 2X. I never heard. What is this? So it's from Dan Sullivan and Benjamin Hardy. I can't remember the other books that they've written that you would know, but you would know them based on those. But Who Not How, that's the other one. You're looking at me like

you still don't know what I'm talking about. But either way. It's a business book. It's a business and life book. It's really about how the majority of us are going to go after the things that are two times, that'll give us a 2X result, right? So I want to work out. I want to lose weight. I'm going to lose five pounds. But in reality, it's easier to just make the lifestyle change that's going to last a lifetime. That's a 10X change, right? That is not easy.

Becoming a vegan is a 10X change for somebody like me who loves a steak right but the result of going vegan is a 10x better result for me then did you do that or you just that was just an example why is it so why does it work out that making a radical change is easier than making a small change so i think the title is a little bit misleading it's not necessarily easier it's better So I could make the shift and say, you know, I want to spend one more day per month working out. And if I already work out two days a month, like going to three is not that hard. That's a two exchange. But if I said I want to go run the New York marathon, well, that's a whole hell of a lot different lifestyle

change that I have to make to do that. And that's really the difference. So it's not easier to go and be a marathoner, but it is better to go and be a marathoner. I feel like I'm torn on this because part of me feels like if you just are trying to make a small incremental change, the odds of backsliding are high because you're not really getting that far outside of your comfort zone and you're not really committing to much. That's essentially the point.

But if you're like, I want to run a New York City marathon starting, let's say, from where I am, it's so outrageous of a change that, in my opinion, it would lead to giving up sooner. But your entire – so adding one additional running day to your monthly habit, not going to change your life all that drastically. So I wasn't going to Rick Edelman you, right? So I- Gotcha. All right. Josh, can we get you to commit to running the marathon next year?

Can I tell you that? I'll run it with you. 20 years ago, I used to run three miles like five days a week. I lived on 90th and 3rd Avenue and that's right at Engineer's Gate. It's two blocks away on 5th, which is the Jackie Onassis Reservoir

in Central Park. And I would run it twice. It's 1.58 miles. And I did that almost every day. I think he's avoiding your question. And then I got married and then I had kids. Let's run a 5K.

That's an achievable goal. You can do that. What, a 5K? By when? That's 3.1. Two months. So that's the thing, though. I want to hear if the audience thinks I can do it.

And when they all say that I can't, that's when I'm going to do it. That's the kind of asshole that I am. You're leaving this up to the commenters? No, that's my whole personality is like, please tell me I can't do something. So I ran a marathon last year for the first time ever. I am a runner, but I usually would run like 5Ks. Okay. The reason I did was because I gained about 25 pounds during COVID.

Yeah. And I was like, absolutely not. This is not. This is not. Where'd you run? New York City or? Richmond. On Richmond.

So I want to be young and thin on Instagram, right? Like I was like, this is not me. So the thing that I thought about that helped to get me out of that rut and eating ice cream every day was if I have to train to run a marathon, I'm really going to kick it in gear. And I'm not going to just make that one little incremental change that allows me to backslide. So you lived the message of the buff. Yes. So drastic steps are the thing that makes you make that gigantic lifestyle change. Haven't had ice cream in I don't know how long. And I walked past like 18 ice cream places on the way here and I don't have that like

reaction that I normally would. So it shifts your entire lifestyle trying to go 10x versus just making that one little teeny incremental shift saying I'm going to run a 5k one Saturday morning. Versus just making that one little teeny incremental shift saying I'm going to run a 5K one Saturday morning. Eh. Like what happens next Saturday? Yeah. Respect. I love it.

Tell us about the marathons that you've been running. Do you have a favorite for us? Yeah. The Fund was a remarkable book. Obviously, these are, I don't know if allegations are the right word, but he wasn't inside Bridgewater, right? These are all second and third hand stories. But it definitely doesn't paint Ray Dalio in a great light. You could say that he's a sociopathic maniac. At least that's my interpretation of reading the book,

which again might or, you know, might or might not be true. Good read. Well done. And we're having Rob Copeland on YouTube on Monday. Yeah. So that'll be a live stream Monday at five o'clock. The author of the book. Some wild stories.

I have a lot of questions for him. If I were him, I would stay out of Connecticut. I feel like maybe we'll start with that. My favorite, something I just showed you, Michael, the Museum of American Finance puts out a monthly magazine and they get really good historians to tell the stories of money throughout history. And sometimes they'll write about ancient history and sometimes they'll write about Civil War era history.

They did 100 Years of Venture Capital and the cover of the magazine is like old sailing ships. And like the original form of venture capital was export, let's say. So it's, I haven't gotten to read the article, but I wanted to let people know that that comes out. And I do read it almost every month. I'm really excited to dig into this. Is it online or is it just print? Yeah. You just go to Museum of American Finance and put your email address in as a subscriber and it's free and they will send it to you once. It's like a PDF that shows up.

I'd rather listen to NPR. That's where I get boring little facts about money like that. What show do you listen to? Planet Money. Love those guys. So the first ever sailing ship and the first VC. You ever listen to Indicator? I do.

Okay. I was on the Indicator last month. They were asking me about spooky financial terms for Halloween. Oh, we did a video on this. Community adjusted. Like zombie companies. What were the other ones that we did? The Invisible Hand, Dark Pools.

So we defined all these things, and they're not that scary when you do that. All right, we're going to wrap it up from here. Our special thanks to Malcolm and Callie. Tell us, tell the audience where they can find you guys and follow you guys on a regular basis. Malcolm, what's your, where are your handles? Where are your socials? What do you do? At Malcolm on Money on Twitter.

Malcolm on Money. Malcolm on Money. Okay. And the Malcolm on Money newsletter comes out twice monthly. And you can go to MalcolmEthridge.com to sign up for it. Sweet. And you're on LinkedIn, too? I'm on LinkedIn, too.

LinkedIn, too. It's the only social media platform that matters. Respect. I agree. I've been saying that for a couple months now. I think it's catching on. I see more and more people active there. Yeah, for sure.

They must be coming from somewhere else. Facebook. Facebook. Okay. Callie, where do we follow your stuff? All right. Twitter. It's Callie A. Bost.

eToro US is on as eToro US. I'm on LinkedIn. I write a weekly newsletter. It's called The Bottom Line. It's on pretty much everything we talked about. Sign up on LinkedIn. Most importantly, create an account on eToro. Get the full suite of our research.

I would love it. Got to get that plug in there. I agree. You guys were unbelievable. We had so much. Didn't we have so much fun today? Thank you so much for joining us. All right. The Compound and Friends is out. Thank you guys so much. We had so much. Didn't we have so much fun today? Thank you so much for joining us. All right.

The Compound and Friends is out. Thank you guys so much. We'll see you soon. All right. So stick around. We're going to do the real version now. I just wanted to warm up a little bit. Get a little back and forth going.

Sorry, I was kind of frustrated. Take it.