The Compound and Friends - These Are the Stocks to Buy In 2026 (with JC Parets)

Episode Date: January 16, 2026

On episode 225 of The Compound and Friends, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Michael Batnick⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠���⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Downtown Josh Brown⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ are joined by TCAF legend JC Parets to discuss: the stocks to watch in 2026, people JC has learned to fade, the sectors looking to break out, the magazine cover indicator, prediction markets, and much more! This episode is sponsored by Public. Find out more at https://public.com/compound Sign up for The Compound Newsletter and never miss out: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠thecompoundnews.com/subscribe⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow us on Socials: Instagram: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠instagram.com/thecompoundnews⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠twitter.com/thecompoundnews⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠linkedin.com/company/the-compound-media/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ TikTok: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠tiktok.com/@thecompoundnews⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Public Disclosure: Paid endorsement. Brokerage services provided by Open to the Public Investing Inc, member FINRA & SIPC. Investing involves risk. Not investment advice. Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool by Public Advisors. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. See disclosures at public.com/disclosures/ga. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and investment values may rise or fall. See terms of match program at https://public.com/disclosures/matchprogram. Matched funds must remain in your account for at least 5 years. Match rate and other terms are subject to change at any time. Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Josh Brown are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. The Compound Media, Incorporated, an affiliate of ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Ritholtz Wealth Management⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information. Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

You were so early to the commodity rally. Dude, I said gold 5,000. People thought I was fucking crazy. No, but even like last summer, commodities had been rallying, but not like this. And they just, they just exploded starting in the first of the year. It was like a brand new bull market just started for a lot of them. And here's the interesting part about commodities is that historically, these bull markets don't just last a few quarters or a few years.

They last 10. 20. Yeah. So if you're betting this is over, then you're betting that this is the shortest commodity super cycle ever. Who's your boy that did the chart yesterday? Is it Alfonso that did the gold to stock chart? And it looks like it might be breaking out. Oh, yeah. You know what I'm talking about?

Of course, yeah, yeah. That's a great chart. Gold Dow. I think that was Rick, slick Rick. Okay. We got this Lebanese Mexican dude. Really? Slick Rick.

He's the man. He does commodities only? No, he just does everything, dude. He's like overlaying tack with like the Israeli shekel. Like, this guy's... He's a lesbinese Mexican? Yeah, they got those. Yeah, Lebanese Mexicans?

Yeah. You got a lot of talented people on your roster. Thank you. I agree. Great charters. How's, uh, how's Kenny doing? Dude, Kenny is a legend. I know.

He's hilarious. People love Kenny. He's the funniest. Show today with no shirt on, right? Just like this, like, 1970s disco shirt and his chest hair all sticking out. Yeah, oh, yeah, like a jacket with no shirt on there. Right. Wait, for the audience.

Not everybody knows Kenny. So Kenny, right, if you don't know Kenny, Kenny Glick, aka Kung Fu Kannie, aka Hit the Bid. He's like... Jefferson Kroll. Jefferson Kroll. He was like Davey Day Trader before, like way back in the day. I was going to say that.

But he actually knows stocks. Like he was, is the funniest person on camera talking about stocks. 100%. He's the grandfather of day trading because... Think about that. Because day trading didn't exist until Kenny got on the scene. Kenny was there day one. He's the grandfather of day trading.

He invented day trading. He's a mid to late 1990s vintage day trader. Early to mid. They don't make them like that. They don't make them like that. You can't. And most of those guys have not survived. Does he still day trade?

Right. That's my point. Does he still day trades? Every day. Dude, if you still have capital and you're doing it like late 90s style, you figured something out. Well, he trades the only intraday strategy I've ever seen work, which is you're fading rallies and you're, uh,

and you're buying dips, particularly after earnings. They cross the one day anchored VWAP, and then that's your risk versus reward. Is it like a 20-minute strategy? Well, you're looking at a one-minute anchored VWAP, right? And then as soon as it gets above that and it mean reverts up on a sell-off, you're in. And then on a rally, you're fading the breakdown. That's got to be good for your blood pressure. I mean, listen, most trades are in the first half an hour of the day.

So you're in your... I tried day trading in like 98. I was the world's worst. I do not have the temperament for that. And I was one of those guys where I get into a trade and then it would start going against me. And the three guys around me were like, dude, you got to sell it now.

I'm like, no. I start reading about the fundamentals of the company. They said, I don't think you understand what we're doing here. This is ticks, bro. This is not about being right. And that doesn't sit well with me. I sort of can't operate that way.

on each other for 20 years and you're still like, oh yeah, you like that stock? Why? Yeah, no. Why? Because I think I could sell it at a higher price. What do you mean? Why? You know what? It's not a character flaw. It's due to my superior intellect. I have to have the reasoning behind everything. Yeah. Even if it's fake, I still need something. You sound like one of these like old, angry macro permabairs. You know? I'm fucking 48 and I'm a permabole. No, I know. Other than that? No, no, but the things you're saying, like how you're speaking, obviously you're being sarcastic, but like those angry perma bros actually do think that. You know, I'm a little. I'm Angry perma bulls.

Bears. Perma bears. Yeah, you know, they're intellect. They're so far superior than the market. Dude, I'm joking. No, I know that. As long as you know and Josh, have you noticed that every single year he says, I'm effing this age? I remember when he was like, dude, I'm 38 years old. I'm time for that.

41 years old. I'm time for that. I'm getting too old for this shit. Yeah, but now as you're getting older, you're like, oh, you know, he was right. I've never said, I've never, I've never, I've never. said those words out loud. I'm X years old. Yes, but there are things that you now acknowledge that you're too old for. I'm still feeling good. I feel great, but I'm too old

for games. Yeah, yeah. What kind of games? Like, games people play with each other. I don't play games with people. I thought you meant like Call Duty. I don't play that anymore. No, no, no, no, no. Like, I don't do group texts. I remove myself from I'm like in five group texts. I used to be in 50. I used to be in group texts with people from college

at a certain point, it's like, what fuck are we even talking about? 48. What is this even about? No, but you want to know, something about Josh is that, you know, he gave me a lot of advice over the years because he was like ahead of the game. Like, he had his kids before me. Like, he was just a little bit older in not just an age, but in other things too. And it's like all the things that dads tell you all are true, right? Like, you know, as you become a dad, I mean, my oldest is five, the twins are three.

So, like, but all the things that you ever said. Remember I used to tell you, let me say this, like 10 years ago. you'd be like, yo, what up? I'm in Manhattan. What are we doing? I'm like, I'm taking the train home and taking my kids to Little League

and you're like, oh, I respect that. That makes sense. How many days a week do you do that? I'm like, pretty much five days a week. And you're like, really? I'm like, just you wait. And now you're in the shit. That's right.

You're in the shit for real. No, it's all good. You know some of the... I know. It's the best time of your life. You want to know one of the best piece of advice you ever gave me. Right?

This is a good one. Because I think about this a lot. Buy six flags at four and a quarter. It was three and a half. It was like three and a half, but that's another story. It tripled. I thought I was fucking Warren Buffett.

It was just Josh getting lucky, as it turns out. But so I walked into Josh's office one day, and I was like, you know, I can't like screw anything in. I can't hang a picture on the wall. Like, I'm such an idiot. Like, I can't do any of this stuff. And Josh goes, let me stop you right there.

You go, you provide, and you hire people to do all that shit. Don't worry about it. And I'm like, yeah? He's like, yeah, yeah, yeah. Go make money. Don't worry about it. Yeah. Oh, okay.

Let me tell you. I think about that shit all the time. Well, what was the alternative? You're going to go to carpentry school? Well, I'm in my early 20s, so like I don't know anything. So like now in hindsight, I'm like, yeah, I'm not fucking doing that. Josh says just pays, I'm going to do it. Your time is better spent reading, writing, researching, talking to people.

Candlestick. Your time is not well spent learning how to screw in a light bulb. So. Thank you. You're welcome. You're welcome. How is Disney? Listen, it can't be a bear market, man.

I'm talking $15 hot dogs, bro. $15 hot dogs. Go to Vegas. $30 hot dogs. I was just there. $30 hot dogs. I was just there. $30 peanuts in the room.

I had a $16 subway sandwich. So offensive. That's gross. In New York, bro? No, in Vegas. The last time I was in Vegas was with JC and Fami. We went to Piero's. And a week later, somebody tried to blow the restaurant up.

Are you serious? Uh-huh. I love Vegas. I didn't send you that, Link. No. Somebody in the middle of the night Went and lit the restaurant on fire Which I swear to God

A week after we went there Wow This place was like a little DL Like I could see how that would happen there It's Piero's was in one of the scenes With Sharon Stone and De Niro in Casino Get up! What is that? Not that one, the other one

Dude, that place was good Yeah, yeah, it was legit That scene where he's shaking the table Yeah, not the one where he busts her with Lesters but maybe the one where she's like really hot. I wouldn't do that. All right. Let's get the show on the road. We got things to do. All right. Thank you, John. What episode is this, my friend?

This is. I'm on an important. Okay. Two and a quarter. Whoa, whoa, stop the clock. Here's a word from our sponsor. Today's show is sponsored by Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On public, you can build a multi-asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, and crypto. And now, generated assets, which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor supplier has grown revenue over 20% year over year,

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That's public.com slash compound, paid for by public investing. Full disclosure in podcast description. Welcome to The Compound and Friends. All opinions expressed by Josh Brown, Michael Batnick, and their castmates are solely their own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of Riddholt's wealth management.

This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions. Clients of Riddholtz wealth management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. Ladies and gentlemen, you are now rocking with the best investing podcast on God's Green Earth, episode 225. Super blessed. Whole gang is here.

Daniel is back. John's in the house. Duncan, Nicole. Van favorite, returning champion. making his I've lost count appearance on the compounded friends. You all give it up for J.C. Peretz. You hear it? Your hands broken?

All right. All right. Guys, J.C. is the founder and chief technician of Trend Labs, a technical analysis-focused research platform. JC also authors everybody's wrong where he delivers charts and actionable ideas on a daily basis. Welcome back to the show. Thank you guys. My favorite show to do in the whole world.

Number one, easy. We're really excited to have you here. So today's going to be fun because I know you have a bunch of charts that we're going to take a look at. And then I'm going to show you some charts that you may either like or be offended by. I'm not sure yet. But we'll do yours first. If you bring me an arithmetic scale price chart, I'm going to throw it at you. Something tells me I'm already in trouble.

All right. I did want to, can I play a, I can play an Instagram, right, John? All right. Play and Instagram. Yeah, that's not. That's all what the kids do these days. He's 48. He really is 40 years. Is this working? Oh, shit. I don't know if it's...

Who even uses Instagram? I don't know if it's worth. Oh, wait, wait, I got it. I got it. Hold on. The whole long-term capital management, I hope most of you're familiar with it, but the whole story is really fascinating. Because if you take John Merriweather and Eric Rosenfeld, Larry Hill and Brands, Greg Hawkins, Victor Agonni,

Smart men. the two Nobel Prize winners, Merton, Sholes. If you take the 16 of them, they probably have as high an average IQ as any 16 people working together in one business in the country, including at Microsoft or wherever you want to name. So there's an incredible amount of intellect in that room. Now, you combine that with the fact that those 16 had had extensive experience in the field they were operating.

I mean, this was not a bunch of guys who had made their money, you know, selling men's clothing, and then all of a sudden went into the scary business. They'd had, in aggregate, the 16th, that probably had 350 or 400 years of experience, doing exactly what they were doing. And then you throw in the third factor, that most of them had virtually all of their very substantial net worths in the business.

So they had their own money up, hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars of their own money up, super high intellect, working in a field they knew, and essentially they went broke. And that to me is absolutely fascinating. I mean, if I ever write a book, it's going to be called Why Smart People Do Dumb Things. My partner says it should be autobiographical. That's Chase's newsletter.

But this might be an interesting illustration. And these are perfectly decent guys. I respect them and they help me out when I had problems with Solomon. So they're not bad people at all. But to make the money they didn't have and didn't need, they risked what they did have and did need. And that's foolish. That is just plain foolish. All right.

That's the goat. That's the goat. Warren Buffett commenting on long-term capital markets. Long-term capital management, which was a prominent hedge fund that blew up in the late 1990s. And I think there's like I think there's a lot in there, a lot to that. The first big idea is these are literally the smartest people there are working in money management. These are Nobel Prize winners, theoreticians, professional traders, asset managers. Pick-a-up all-player.

And a whole room full of them. It's not even like one guy making an error. It's a whole committee. I think there's a lesson in there that blow-ups can happen. And they probably will happen the more arrogant people are about what they think they're good at is one. And then that second part, like needless risk. Risking, all of them were multi, multi-millionaires

at the time that they were putting on the trades that melted down. What do you thoughts? You know, I think it gets back to something that, thank God, I understood, is that you don't have to be smarter than everybody else. You just have to be slightly less stupid. So that's number one. It's about understanding the flaws that we have as human beings so that we don't fall victim to a lot of the mistakes that other people do, right?

We have to understand the way the human mind works. We have to understand those emotions when they come, recognize it, laugh about it, and then not do anything about it, not act upon those emotions. Now, there's a second element to that. that, which is where I come in, where not only are we recognizing our own human behaviors, but we are taking advantage of the fact that all the other humans, not only do they don't know that they have those human flaws, they don't even care to know, and they're just living their lives. But us as investors, we can exploit their flaws for our own selfish endeavors so that we can

make money for ourselves. But does, but does be, is there a such thing as being overly aware of those emotions and then having that be a limiting factor where you don't take enough risk or you don't trust your instinct enough because you might say to yourself, oh, here I go again, my hubris. Yeah. And then a huge winning trade goes by because you were so busy self-deprecating. Isn't that like also a thing? I mean, we can talk about precious metals over the last few months and every day it goes up another 4% and I'm like, oh my God, like there's no way this can keep going.

Meanwhile, I haven't sold a single precious metal stock. Okay. Right? Because it has a hit of our target. right? So it goes back to pre-nailing down what you're going to do so that you're completely eliminating your brain from the situation. You're just following the plan. So what I think this morning or yesterday doesn't matter. I'm like, dude, there's no way this is going to keep going up. Oh, okay. Well, it doubled after I said that. So, you know, it doesn't matter what I think, right? Just follow the plan,

stick to the plan. So I think that that's the big thing. And in terms of like, you know, an overabundance of information, you know, there's a specific groups that you want to fade. You want to fade. And if you could throw up slide one, the new slide one. I just added another slide because we didn't have enough. You want to fade. I love this. All right, why don't we get into this and I'll tell you what the four fade groups are? Okay.

So you're talking about smart people blowing themselves up in 1998. Well, Isaac Newton, I don't know, pretty freaking smart. He blew himself up too. And for the same reasons that humans are blowing themselves up today. It has nothing to do with intelligence or that Isaac Newton was the man. He's a human at the end of the day. So what happens? Isaac Newton was the man.

He was the man. I think, I think, I think scholars believe that he was one of the 10 smartest people who ever lived. Yeah. So, okay. It's very important. So nobody's going to argue. Nobody's going to say, oh, that guy was an idiot, right? No, he's just a human, right?

So what happened? So he starts, this is the South Sea stock back in the day. If you don't know the story, go learn about the story. Just one of the great bubbles of all time. So we're not going to go into the bubble. The point is he starts buying it, right? Then he quickly doubles his money. Isaac Newton.

This is in 1718 for the people not looking at the chart. This is the roaring 20s of the 1700s. So Isaac Noon doubles his money. Nice trade. Not bad. Isaac, not bad, bro. Right? And then, you know what I'm saying?

Nice little double. And then all of a sudden, what happens? Newton's neighbors are getting rich. They're still in it. And now he's got the fomo. He's like, bro. So he doubles, he's out. And then the people around him.

that he knows he's smarter than or making even more money. That will make you insane. Yeah. And so he's like, you know what? The hell with it. I'm in. Oh, my God. At the top.

And then he blew himself up. Yeah. Exits broke. We know that for sure. Yeah. Bro. You heard that story? There's that famous quote that is, I think, misattributed to him.

Somebody said that I can calculate the heavenly bodies, but not in the madness of the crowd or madness of people. It's probably made up, but it's a perfect quote. It's a great quote. I don't think he actually said it. By the way, that chart kind of looks like silver. A little bit. Yeah. Well, halfway.

Half trend is going to look like that. Don't even go there with me. Not, no, no. That's not an up trend. That's not an uptrend. That's a vertical trend. Listen. That's parabolic.

Is the message here, this is not a contest of who's the smartest. That's number one, right? And then the number two is comparison. My gains versus someone else's gains and, oh, shit, I better catch up. Being too smart might even be a negative. I've seen a million examples. The midwit. The midwit.

Curve is real. One thing that Buffett didn't mention in that video, and it's sort of besides the point, but also relevant, they were levered 250 to 1. Probably, like, not a great recipe. But that's the arrogance. They wouldn't do that if they weren't thinking to themselves, we have the whole machine figured out. It's fixed income arbitrage.

What can go wrong? Like, these things don't really move that much until they do. That's right. Right. So there's a couple of components to it. It's like, we know exactly what we're doing. therefore why 100 times leverage when we could be 200 why 200 we could be 250 so that's one thing and the second thing is just like look at look at how brilliant we are and the third thing is

why are we putting the pedal to the metal do we really need to make this much money and of course none of them did at the now they might none of them did at the time so i i think those are really crucial lessons for investors i just thought that was an interesting thing to see buffett pointing that out so it's two things it's the the internal and the external. If you could throw up the slide two, I just added one more. So it's the internal and the external. Good luck today, John. No, no, that was it. That was it. So, you know, it's about recognizing our own flaws and then taking advantage of the others, right, for our own selfish gain. So to me, there are four basic fade groups. You have sell-side analysts, right?

So they come with their own conflicts of interest. Of course, like, you know, they're going to say something bad about a company, but they're working on an M&A deal. They're going to get a tap on the shoulder. And if you think that doesn't happen, I think you're crazy. So there's that. There's the career risk where, you know, if there are 30 analysts covering a stock and they're all bullish and you're not and you're wrong, you're going to be looking for a job, right? And it's not worth the career risk because Little Timmy's private school and Martha's Botox and the country club and the whole thing. It's not worth it. But hurting. Hurting. Hurting mentality, right? Hurting is very strong. Safety in the- 100%. Right. So you have that. So we could take advantage

of that for our own selfish endeavor. So you got the four, you got the four, is that me or is that Josh. Dude, who's... What are we doing here? My kids got tonsillitis or something. Is this your first podcast? It might be. Amateur hour.

All right. Wall Street analysts, right? Great fade, particularly at consensus. Remember three years ago exactly, coming into 23, Wall Street was at a consensus that the stock market was going to fall in 20203, as it turns out, the NASDAG doubled instead, right? Classic. It's a better signal when they're all bearish versus when they're all bullish.

If they're all bullish, that's standard. Hurting, yay, SAP is going to go up 8 to 10%. Even though it never does. That's not the fade. The fade is when they're all bearish. Yes. Okay. It's asymmetric.

It's not the same thing. Not the same thing. Okay, I like that. Asset managers, these are hedge funds, asset managers. These are historically the worst investors of all time. We have the data, right? So how do you measure that? That makes perfect sense.

What do you mean? Well, in the futures market in particular. Right? So you're seeing futures positioning. You're looking at the speculators, the asset managers. When they're at a consensus, do the opposite. Right? Like, for example, they had a historic net short position in Russell 2000 futures this summer.

How'd that work out? Right? For example. But we can go, it goes on it right now. Are those hedges, though? No. Isn't it, is it ever good if they lose money in the Russell futures, maybe they're hedging wrong positions? There's this thought process that hedge fund managers hedge. No, no, no, no.

That's just a Fugazi. They're in. Okay. So those are concentrated bets, not hedges. Yeah. Okay. Ascent managers, fade them at consensus. Journalists, because they're so good at their jobs, right?

Journalists are not traders. In a lot of cases, they can't afford to be. in a lot of cases, they have the money, but legally they can't because they're not allowed. Right? So they're not traders. Fine. They're really good at what they do. What do they do?

They see what the narrative is. They're there to sell newspapers, magazines, right? So they want to see what people are talking about and then write articles about that. By the time the journalist figures that out, by the time they write their article, submit the cover, all of that gets approved. By the time that hits the shelves, it's too late. Take the other side, right? Because they're writing about something that already happened,

then explaining it to people, and they do a really good job at that. but that is not the same thing as trying to find a prospective opportunity that hasn't happened yet. But within journalists, it depends on the journalist. For example, Barron's only writes about the stock market, right? They're pretty much on top of it. Now, of course, there's been some magazine covers, but like you can't fade every Barron's cover. When the economist is putting Lulu Lemon on the cover, that's like, wait, what? Why is the economist talking about Lulu Lemon?

So, I like that. Newsweek time. I like that distinction where, look, if you're fading everybody who's writing about stocks everywhere, you're fading some people that focus on stocks 24-7 and they understand everything we just said. That's not the answer. I do agree with Michael, when a stock story crosses over into the mainstream media, you're in the eighth inning.

Or a theme or anything like that. Like, how many AI covers did we have at the end of the year? Every investor is doing X. Right, that was on a kind of story. King Dollar. Yeah. We talked about it on the show. And again, it's not.

like we're just fading magazine covers. It's like when it lines up with price and it lines up with futures positioning and other things. The time person of the year is like the seven most important AI CEOs. Perfect. A month ago. It's beyond perfect. Perfect. Okay.

And then the fourth one is economists. And the economist is easy. Why are they wrong all the time? It's very simple. By design, they ignore what actually is happening in favor of what they think should be happening based on information that may or may not have happened. Right? So, wait.

Are you surprised that they're wrong all the time? Say more? Okay, so economists, what do they do? They ignore what is happening. The prices of assets is what is happening in favor. And I know you have economists, friends, so don't get sensitive about it. It's just what it is. Yeah, yeah.

They, he does right. So you go. Do I? Maybe. Maybe. I don't know. Don't tell anybody. All right.

So what are, they look, they ignore what is happening in favor of data that may or may not have happened because we know it probably will get revised. Right. And ignore it. It's like, pay no attention to what is happening. Right. Right. So if you're...

So not fade economists on the economy, fade economists when they start talking about the stock market. Oh, hell yeah. Yeah, yeah. All right, you guys ready? All right, so those are the four fade groups. Simple. Okay.

We don't have to complicate things. So there's a lot of information out there. There's a lot of noise. Focus on these, do the opposite, especially when they all agree. Okay. All right. I don't hate that.

I think... And we're painting with a broad brush. Of course. There's some awesome economists. Every single person. Obviously. I know sell-side analysts. I know asset managers and journalists.

And maybe I know economists. I don't know. There's an economist somewhere listening to us saying fucking fade podcasters. For sure. For sure. And then what happened to that guy? Fully justified. Whatever happened to that guy who was hating on the blog on the bloggers back in the day

that nobody ever heard from again? Right? How'd that work out for him? Not great. Hating on bloggers. Dude, he was hating. Josh went off. We don't have to go there if you don't.

There was a guy. I'm not going to say his name. He sucks. He was a CNBC guy in like 08, 2009, 2010. And blogs were a brand. new thing. He was like forced to react to all these stories that were happening on blogs like Barry's site and Zero Hedge and, you know, like all the stuff. A reform broker.

Yeah. So he would do a segment. I think it was nightly. Blog you. And he would just go off on somebody that was like from Twitter. And he didn't make any friends. And I don't know. I don't know if he was right or wrong.

I forgot what he was saying. But that was a moment. Don't fade the bloggers. I'll tell you what. They got, they got, because they got followers. Right? I mean, myself included. I mean, I'm there now. I wasn't them, but I'm there now. All right. Let's get into it. You want to talk markets or what? Yes, let's do it. All right. Let's do it.

So, speaking of economists, the economists tell me that US GDP, 70% of that is consumer. So I don't know what a GDP is, but 70% of a lot, 70% of anything is a lot, right? Yeah. So we're seeing new all-time highs in consumer discretionary on both a market cap-weighted and an equally weighted basis. Is that bearish? I don't think so. is this heavily influenced by the stocks that are in the index or it doesn't matter really. The, the biggest market cap stocks in the index.

So in the discretionary Tesla and Amazon are each over 20%. That's why I'm asking. Right. So fine. People are like, oh, it's just the big ones. Well, the equally weighted consumer discretionary index that completely eliminates those stocks out of the equation altogether is also making new all-time highs. Yep.

Okay. That's the signal. Right. How many people fail to correct themselves and look at the equal. weight version of the index for that confirmation. Humans are lazy, bro. Right. It doesn't take much to double check.

If you just look at an index and say, oh, it's all Apple and Microsoft, well, wait, what does equal weight tech look like? Right. Not everybody will do that. And what does small cap tech look like? And what does midcap tech look like? Are you less bullish if you don't have that confirmation in the equal weight? You know, it's funny because, well, first of all, on the consumer discretionary, consumers

have been quite the underperformer of this bull market, right? It's been technology, industrials, financials. communications. It's been the other offensive groups, not discretionary. So looking at discretionary underperforming, if there were others in that group underperforming, that would be a problem. But because it's the only one, we've been betting on rotation into it. I'm going to sort of say something that you probably don't care about, but I actually think there's a huge flaw with consumer discretionary being in a sector. Because the bifurcation between travel and restaurants last year is the reason that the consumer stocks

quote unquote underperformed as a sector. The reality is they're not really a sector. People don't necessarily choose between I'm going to go out to eat versus I'm going to go on a trip. They probably can do both if they feel like it. The restaurant stocks have been horrible. A lot of consumer discretionary stocks have been horrible.

The travel stocks could not have been better. I know airlines are not in it, but like the expedias of the world. But airlines you could argue should be in it and Delta and United Air are making the all-time highs. And then here's the other thing. Walmart is not in it and it's making an all-time highs. What if I just take consumer discretionary and throw it out and look at Visa and MasterCard instead?

Right. I like that signal better. Well, Jeff Mackey would agree with a lot of the things you're saying. Yeah. Right? I talked to Jeff a lot and he's like every like, you know, Uber's in a consumer stock. Apple's a consumer stock. Google's a consumer stock.

Right. That's so weird. So just go with Visa MasterCard. Let that. What are they saying? What are their share prices saying? I'd rather know that than start charity. picking like what does Appleby's think of the environment? Who gives a shit? They might be doing

really well or really poorly relative to their peers. See that chilies though? Yeah, great. Okay, I like that concept. Okay, but meanwhile, look what's happening. Consumer sentiment is actually the lowest levels ever. So you got the humans are- Pure politics. Yeah, maybe, fine. But the humans are very upset and the price of assets is making new highs. Yeah, these are different people. The people that are don't own stocks. Yeah, well, I'll tell you what, in the in 1999, when this was at highs, uh, the stock market crashed from there. And in 2019, with this as was, was, this was a highs, we had three major corrections, including a full on bear market and a historic market crash immediately after they were all, uh, super giddy. So yeah, these might be much different

people. It might be politics. I hear all that shit. All I know is these people are angry and the consumer stocks are making new all time highs. I couldn't think of a better combination. I can't believe this hasn't bounced. Well, I guess what? This will not. This will never, this will never be where it was. This is a, this is a secular bear market. Yeah. I agree because the top is the advent of the internet. The internet makes people miserable. Nobody answers questions. People are miserable on the internet. This will never be over a hundred, ten in our lifetime. I guess we'll see. My point is the humans are angry and the stocks that represent to be humans. Humans are angry and the stocks that represent the behavior of those humans are making all-time highs. I love that

combination. Okay. I like that's a good counterpoint to the people that are talking about bubbles and euphoria and all these things. We'll get there. Yeah, yeah. Okay. Okay. So let's do a little, let's have some fun here. We're looking at micro strategy, hitting new lows more recently. And this was, look at that top right when that cover came off. If you want to go to the next one, zoom in on that cover. You know, right there, the Bitcoin Alchemist, the volatility virtuoso. Michael Saylor. Michael Saylor. So just look at where that peaked. That's January 30th, 2025. That's a year ago next week.

Yep. So that's not a coincidence. Give a relative charge, I say. Settle down. Here we go. So micro strategy relative to Bitcoin. So this is a ratio of the price of micro strategy, which is doing the Ponzi with the Bitcoin,

and then the actual price of Bitcoin, right? And then notice when it peaked. It peaked on November the 20th of 2024. Does anyone know what happened the day before that? The coronation of Donald Trump? No. Wait, the day before what? I'm sorry.

I was like November the 20th of Thanksgiving. November the 20th of 2024, the ratio between Microstratogy and Bitcoin peaked. In other words, up until November 20th, if you wanted to put on a leverage long position in Bitcoin and make money in Bitcoin, micro strategy was the preferred vehicle over the ETFs. No, that was genuine. Oh, that was earlier. Yeah, what happened that day? November the 20th, 2024 was the peak, and it crashed after that.

The day before that, November 19th, was the day that option started trading on Ibit. Oh, that's good. Oh, well, that explains it. Price discovery. Dude, no, no, no, it's the opposite. It's not necessary anymore. You don't need this anymore. You don't need it anymore.

So perfluous. And by the way, it's not a Ponzi scheme, literally. I'm not smart enough to understand. I don't care. It's a Ponzi. I hope it is. It doesn't matter to me at all. Right.

So my point is, not only it does not matter. I got long yesterday. Your long micro strategy? Ponzi. Yeah, throw it up. There it is. Wait. It's a false breakdown? You're short, the Ponzi. You're long. Long the Ponzi. It's not a Ponzi.

Okay, fine, great. No, but he hopes it. It doesn't matter whether it is or not. Jesus Christ. It's a digital assets treasury corporation. Yeah, sure. Okay. So you think we're seeing a false breakdown in strategy? So, dude, I'm telling you right now, how long have you known me? Every year is the same shit, man. At the end of the year, between that Christmas, New Year's, you got the B squads on the

desks, you got, like, nobody's, you got, there's no liquidity. Tax law selling. They're puking stocks up. There's just low liquidity, weird shit happens. And then you get back to work and they squeeze them higher. And going into that week, I'm like, crypto, crypto, coin base, micro strategy. I didn't know, I had to see confirmation and then we got it. So I got long yesterday, pretty aggressively so, I might add. Let's see how it works for me.

I'm going to keep a tight stop. You like, you like this the way this one looks, because it's a false breakdown that's now recovering versus the CoinBases or just buying a Bitcoin ETO? I'm in Coinbase already also. Okay. But I put on a micro strategy position yesterday, which I hadn't in a long time. Okay. All right.

And then if you want to throw up the Bitcoin. Wait, Jacey, what does the tight stop mean to you? I'm curious. Well, I'm using a time stop because it's either going to go or it's not. And if it's going to go, it's going to go now. So I might be out of this tomorrow or next week. Wait, is a time stop like a mental thing? Yeah.

Oh, okay, yeah, yeah. I like it. Like you're saying this. I'm in this for two, three days. I love that. I love that. Well, I'd like to be in it for three months. But if it doesn't go in the first couple of days, I'm out.

I got it. Right, because if trades don't work immediately when you think they should? Not all of them, but this one definitely. Yeah, okay. This one's either going to go or it's not. This looks good to me. So there's your anchored V-Wive from the highs last year. You know, you're looking at 97.

If we're above 97, the squeeze is, oh. I mean, this is like, this is like, I don't know how meaningful is that. Is that moving average? Is that a 10 day? It's a VWOP. That's an anchored volume weighted average price. All right. So they're coming for the stop.

They're coming for their coin. That's right. That's right. So funny money, long. And then I just want to remind everybody that we've seen this story before. There's Fat Fred Savage right there on the cover of Forbes. And then remember what happened? Didn't you make that?

Yeah, that's the Josh line. Yeah. Sam Bankman-Fried. Fat Fred Savage is funny. That was you. Yeah. It's funny me calling anyone that. But, okay, got it.

What is he going to do about it? Nothing. He's playing chess with Diddy? Yeah. I'm not worried about it. All right. So, my point is that we've seen this before, right? And we'll see it again.

So it's not like funny ha-ha. Not like, no, no, no. Pay attention because we will see this again. This is not like a one-and-done. This happens again and again and again. I probably have the greatest collection of magazine covers probably in the world. I don't think anybody has a collection like mine.

I have magazines that go back to the bicycle bubble the late 1800s. I got some shit. Right? And it's the same story again and again and again. What? The rise and fall of a theme. All kinds of things.

All kinds of things. All right. You're right. That is one of the constants forever and ever and ever. We'll never not happen. I hope they never stop. I'm going to bring them.

Next time I'm on the show, I'm going to bring a bunch of magazines and we'll look at it. I have some good stuff. All right. So this was in November. So this was very creative. The best ones usually are.

So this one is a guy doing a yard sale down the mountain and then they turned his skis into red arrows pointing down how the markets could topple the economy Josh what does that mean like if the markets

if the markets get crushed the economy will get crushed with it notice hold on go back go back go back notice the map of the world on his ass that was good right look it's really good it's snow comprising the continents so good I wouldn't have seen that if you'd point it out I know, so good, so good. Anyway, so the rule of thumb is whenever there's a chart on the cover of the magazine,

you buy stocks. Yeah. Right? So I pulled all my associates and we agreed that that was a chart, technically, with the arrows. Yeah. And so here's the returns of stocks since then. Oh, micros. Microcaps up 15 percent.

Trannies up 12, small caps up 12, midcaps up 10. We don't say trannies. We do this every time. We do this every time. They don't like it. Transportation Americans. Disrespectful. So stocks absolutely ripping since then because, of course,

Of course they are because if these British journalists are telling you that the stock market's going to topple, it's probably going to be the opposite, right? And sure enough, it was. This is unbelievable, the unanimity with which every one of these things proceeded to work. Is it surprising to you? Yeah. So I guess the economist has to wait for Q2 for markets to topple the economy. Oh, here we go.

So the journalists weren't wrong. It's just a bubble, that's all. So, uh, Rittoltz is slipping into my DMs. Oh, boy. You know? Oh, boy. He does that late at night sometimes. Yeah.

And so we're talking about this one. What do you guys think about this one? Beware the bubble, how to survive the year ahead. What day does this come out? Last week. This is last week? Yeah. Is it even worth commenting on what they mean?

Which bubble? AI. It's just a bubble. All the bubbles. It's just everything is a bubble. You know, all the bubbles, Josh. So for me, the cover's not enough. I have to read the spiel.

Got it. Of course you don't. I have to see what they're saying. Yeah, yeah. He buys the Playboy for the articles. Yeah, yeah, yeah. No, I just have to... I can't fade something if I don't even know.

They're not even saying what the bubble is in. It's almost like this cover will be wrong or right no matter what, because they're not saying what the bubble's in. That's right. Well, I gave a presentation a couple months ago, I think in Vegas. And I asked everybody, you know, raise your hand if you think we're in a bubble. And the entire room raised their hand. And I'm like, I didn't even mention an ass up.

Who's the audience? I don't know, like rich investors. Right. Where's your hand if we're in a bubble? And it doesn't even matter. It doesn't matter. Okay. It was great.

Okay. What do you think most of them think you mean? Do they, are they thinking like Nvidia, uh, AI? Probably. Okay. Okay. All right. Yeah, probably.

Okay. All right. I mean, listen, any, anything that's going up that you're not in is a bubble, right? I think there are a lot of very well-known stocks that are not in tech that are definitely, if not in bubbles on their way. Costco, Walmart. These should not be 40 times earnings. Oh, here we go.

earnings. Those are not bubbles. They're overpriced. On their way. Dude, 90% of Americans live within 10 miles of a Walmart. Costco, I'm not saying it's not a good company. Costco can't be a bubble. I'm saying historically, people didn't buy those stocks at that expensive of a price

without getting their asses kicked eventually. Don't worry. This time is different. Fair enough. All right. Go ahead. All right. So last year, a year ago today, check the tape.

I told you that international was going to outperform the United States and the dollar was going to get smoked, right? Yes. And you said that I hope you're right because that would be really good for our industry. As in financial advisors, you know, that would be really good. So I'm curious. It was. You said that then. Was it and how?

Well, for the first time in a decade, my advisors don't have to explain to clients why they own anything other than the S&P 500. Or the keys. Am I overstating it? No. Okay. Like, that has been a conversation, not every client, not every year, but it's like, what is the point of emerging markets?

What is the point of Western Europe? What is the point in Japan? Different people at different times. Nobody's asking that question right now. So nobody who stuck it out. That's right. Yeah. So emerging markets X China up 35%.

Emerging markets with China up 34%. All country world index X North America of 32%. EFA, which is a lot of Europe and Japan up over 30%. You don't go down the list. If you pull this back 15 years and just look at cumulative returns, that trade could have like five more years to go and still not get to wear the S&P. And it may never.

I'm not telling you that'll mean revert and you'll get those types of returns. But like for people who think they missed it, what do you think on the technicals? I agree wholeheartedly with you that, I mean, this was a long time of the other side. Yeah. So there is...

It's 15 years. And we don't need to like, if you want to see what all these countries look like, go watch the last episode I was in in the summer. They look the same. We went through, except higher and more to the right. Right, right. But all these countries are up, Latin America,

South Africa, Southeast Asia, all across Europe, up and to the right. India, Japan, China now. Higher and more to the right. Yeah, higher than they were in the summer and more to the right, right. So the United States put up historic numbers, 20% year for the NASDAQ, 17% year for the S&P 500, and the U.S. was one of the worst countries on the planet.

Yeah. And that's like even with all the AI that people were saying there's no AI stocks. Like, right? Like Europe has ASML, that's it. And, uh, you know. Well. Is there a, is this an advertisement? Mids show.

Let's go. So I dove into this, uh, in our chart. Can put a banner at it. Yeah. Yeah. So this is brought to you by our sponsor, Charge Summit, 2026. No, I mean, because I get, I died. into all of these charts.

You're the only person that this is allowed for. Well, I... All right, go. Go download the deck. Go download the deck from the presentation. You have friends on this list. Lots of friends. I'm going to see Katie Stockton in 45 minutes from now.

Well, tell her I said, what's up? She was great. David Longgren, Frank Capillary. Straz and I gave a great presentation. Go download the deck. Check it out. Hey, this is actually a pretty damn good roster. I know.

I get all these people. Drinking buddies. Is that Max Kellerman on Top Right? Who is that? Max Kellerman talking about boxing. John Netto, Market Wizard. So you can download my deck and all the other decks and watch all the presentations.

It's totally free. So go check that out. All right, chart summit.com. So these are, in your opinion, like some of the more interesting technicians who made presentations. I mean, listen, Katie's great, Frank is great. Netto, Lundgren, they're all fantastic.

But I got to tell you, me and Straza's presentation was pretty, pretty good. Did any of the technicians disagree with what you guys are telling people? You know, people weigh different things more heavily and lighter. Katie uses a lot more oscillators than I do. For example, she uses the Ichero clouds and all that stuff. She's a DeMarc. She's a DeMarc.

Lundgren looks at things from a different perspective. Frank Cap as well. So, like, you know, check it out. Enjoy it. Ryan Dietrich as well. All right. So I don't want to get into all of the different international markets and everything like that. We've done that before.

We go over it on the presentation. Go check that out there. This is the big one. These are the assets throughout. about 2025 and the returns. Bitcoin was actually down, bonds flat. S&Ps put up record numbers with the queues and just massive underperformers. Look at Silver.

Why do you say record numbers? What do you mean by that? 17% return in the S&P 500, double the annual average return. Yeah, I'd say that's... That's nowhere close to record, but it's a good year. It's not a record amount of games, but it's a better year than the average. Yeah, of course. A great year.

No one's going to say it wasn't a great year. It's a great year. But underperformed practically everything else. Look at this, though. Silver up 150%, gold up 65, emerging markets, 34, developed stocks, 32. Like, that's where the real money was made last year. Yeah. I mean, it's obvious.

Yeah. So it's too late. My barber asked me this morning, the haircut from Dominic. How early do you get a haircut? A bell more barber. He wants to know if he should buy more silver. Seriously? Yeah.

So he said, he said, I'm hearing it could go higher from here. Are you making a joke? I swear my life. And I said, I said, Dominic, definitely go higher from here. I'm not going to be the one that tells you. That's right. But just to understand, like, it was 16, it's 90. You know what I'm saying?

Like, it's not early. So, I mean, I don't know what's telling you. We'll get to the silver in a second. Let's stick with the stocks for right now. I just kind of wanted to put things in perspective. Look at the industrials and the transports. Both of these indexes are making new highs. These indexes go back to the late 1800s.

They've never been higher, closing at all-time highs together. That's so bullish. So it's less of a signal. I'm getting, you know, emails from, you know, journalists and stuff like that. Like, oh, big signal. It's like, no, no, no. It's not so much a signal as it is confirmation. Yeah.

Confirmation of what? Confirmation of all the other things that are suggesting and have been suggesting that we're in a bull market. This just confirms that all those things are in fact back. Can you something about Dow theory, though? This is my, this is my, this is like anecdotally what I find. When it is in favor of the bulls, people will point it out. And then when it's not, because transports are doing badly,

people just forget about it. Yeah. Who cares? Do you get that sense also? I feel like just nobody cares, and I'm the old man in the room telling you that this is the most important thing that you need to be watching. Because I want to point out, we had a really great run of years where the S&P was making highs or the Dow was making highs and the transports were not. And people like me very cleverly substituted the socks. Yeah.

And I would say semis are the new transports anyway. Yeah. Don't care that the airlines don't look good. And like the markets did great. Like it didn't matter that we didn't have that confirmation, I guess is what I'm trying to say. Now we have it. Okay, convenient. These divergences come at peaks like regularly.

Even before COVID, trainees were already rolling over. Look at the, uh, never change. Look at the New York Stock Exchange composite, making all-time highs. These are the stocks that trade on the world's most important exchange. You know how many mega-cap tech stocks there are on the New York Stock Exchange? Three. United States mega-cap tech stocks, I should say. You got IBM, Salesforce, and-Susco?

No. IBM, sales. Salesforce and there's one more. Oracle. Those are the only three mega-cap tech stocks on the New York Stock Exchange. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ, you got Nvidia, Apple, Amazon, all those others. Taiwan Semi also trades on the New York Stock Exchange. SAP, Novartis, you got over a third of the New York Stock Exchange as international

companies. You're getting a lot more cyclicals there. You're not getting this mega-cap tech exposure that you're getting in the NASDAQ. The New York Stock Exchange is, to me, the best, universe of stocks in the world. Okay, that's obviously not bearish. I don't know if it's necessarily bullish. Oh, wait, Jason, let me ask a question.

When people say to you, I am uncomfortable, I am leaning bearish because everything is working, what do you say to that person? I would say go back in steady history. Meaning? Meaning the best time to buy stocks is when it's making new highs. We have the data. We have the math, right? We know that asset price is trend.

Like, there's a lot about the market that we don't know, but there's a few things that we do know. And we know that asset prices trend. So if you're constantly fighting trends, then you are the sucker. Right. You want to be the house. Asset prices don't oscillate. Right.

It's not up down, up, down, up down. They're going up, or they're going down or they're doing nothing. If you are the type of personality where you think this is as good as it gets, you will not make money over time. I forget who said it the other day and said, you know, if you want to manage money, you want to manage a portfolio, you better be, you better be comfortable with buying. things after they've already doubled. Because if you're not, you're not going to last. Yeah. Right. Because there's a reason why something's doubled. Yeah. And you'll find out later. And you're not smart enough or informed enough to know yet. And you may never be, by the way. Right. So this is the problem with using intuition in the markets. It's like, it's so obvious that

nobody wants to buy something that was just five and now is 10. But you know what's so funny about this? Like, when I talk that the market is bullish and people accuse me of being bullish or naive. It's like, this, I'm not giving you an opinion of what I think will happen in 12 months. I'm describing what is happening today. That's right. And objectively, if you're fading every episode when we're bullish because the stock market is bullish, you're not going to make any money. Do you know, we launched our RIA in September of 2013. And it's been a long time. But somebody once sent me the tweet where I, back then, people used to go on this thing called Twitter and announced stuff. I tweeted a link.

to my blog post announcing the new firm, or maybe it was Barry's, one of the other. Somebody sent me this, and, like, there were, like, 50 responses. Congratulations. So happy for you guys.

But, like, half the responses were top, top. Top. 2013. Yeah. Where was the, was the Dow at 18,000? That was the end of the last decade, remember? That was,

they were talking about a lost decade. We were just breaking out. Top. Barry and Josh just launched an R.A. Top. Really? Yeah. Top?

Sure? With, like, 100 million. But the reason why they were saying that is not, they weren't saying that because like they're making fun of us. They're teasing us. They're saying that because in 2013, the market had finally come all the way back to the 07 high after having been cut in half. That's why they're. And 2020 and 2000. You have to buy tops.

Yeah. Because they're probably not tops. That's right. It's very hard to do. People think that the top of the chart means that there's resistance. It's the opposite. Well, people are out of their fucking minds. They think they think it's a personal top for them.

Yeah. They think, here we go again. Yes. Yeah. Right. Like, I'm going to top it by buying. Just my luck. Right.

Of course. You're not that important. So to me, it's a market of stocks. So we look at the S&P, the Dow, the NASDAQ. You know, we look at the Russell 3,000. It's a market of stocks at the end of the day. I know you've got a ratio of the smallest of the bigs. Yeah, I'm getting there.

I'll get there. So here we're looking at the percentage of stocks on the New York Stock Exchange above their 200 and moving average. Hit a new 502 cars. Yesterday. So that also happened in 2021, though. That's not always great. More stocks in uptrends is not a bad thing for the market.

Yes, but it's not always a great moment to buy. That's all I'm saying. On average of this. All I'm saying is that... It's not always 2021. All I'm saying is these lies that they were telling you in the fourth quarter about how it was weakening breath and market deterioration. It was just sour grapes.

What they were saying, to quote Jeff DeGraff, he calls it sour grapes. He was right. It's just that the concentration. of returns up until that point was so strong. That doesn't mean it's weak market breath. It's the concentration of the best stocks. Amen, sister. It's two different things.

We know that the average return one year later is higher at an all-time high than on all-other days. We know. So we know that for fact. So, yes, obviously, not always. Obviously, and also, most of the time crashes don't start from all-time highs. And if this is the top right here today and the market weakens and it starts to deteriorate. we see distribution, we see selling more 52-week lows, we'll see it. People are like, oh, 1987 came out.

You could change your mind. People are like, oh, 1987 came out of nowhere. No, the market peaked in August. The crash wasn't until October. You know what else? People assume that, like, the typical investor is a lump sum investor. Like, all right, here's everything. Putting it all in today.

But Jesse, say this loud. Stocks crash from oversold conditions. Stocks crash when they're in downtrends for the most part. Yeah. They don't happen overnight. Yeah, that's true. Yeah, that's right. Yeah, that's right.

Let's keep going on. So here's a really interesting one. So this is, so the NASDAQ hasn't made a new high since October. But this is the NASDAQ100 QQ, but NASDAQ stocks 101 through 200, which is the NASDAQ next gen 100. I don't even know. What is this? This is an index.

This is 101 through 200. This is like Zoom. This is the next 100. Like the small stock stocks. Oh, that's it. So it's QQQQJ. has an ETF? Like Palatom, like, what's in here?

I'm curious. Have you ever looked at this? Yeah, yeah, back in the day. So these are the next 100 names. So you're looking at companies between $20 and $40 billion in market capitalization. All right. So these are like big tech stocks, not big enough to be in the NASDAQ one. This could be like data dog or like I'm trying to think like what was the out.

So you're going to get here we go. Sandus, eBay, Fiserve, Teradine, United Airlines. That's weird. Corweave, Expedia, Kimberly Clark. There's some weird shit in the NASDAQ these days. But that's it. You're getting four times the healthcare exposure. So a lot of these biotechs are not big enough to be in the NASDAQ 100.

So you're going to get a lot more health care here. So that certainly helps. Dude, how weird is this dollar tree and Ulta and United? There's a big trend. They're equally waiting too. You know, Walmart switched from the New York Stock exchange to the NASDA. They're all bouncing from the NICC. What's going on?

So they want to be seen as growth companies, not as blue chips. That's like the-Nastx. That's the wave. NASDAX's got the crown. Yeah, I don't think so. So the point is, just because some of these big ones are not working doesn't mean that tech stocks are not working. So it's hilarious. So this guy, this guy Ron DeSantis, right?

My understanding he's the, I think he's the governor of Florida or something like that. You are correct. So this guy's talking about market breath, you know, talking about how it's the Mag 7 economy and everything like that. A funny thing happened that day. Is this real? A funny thing happened that day. That was the day that the Mag 7 stocks peaked on a relative basis and have gone. Can you read the tweet?

You want to read the tweet? Yeah. The magnificent seven economy, has there ever been a time in which the market was as skewed towards one sector and really one aspect of one sector as it is lately? So, funny thing happens. October 29, 2025. Thank you, Governor. So funny thing happened.

So not only was that not true, right? He either didn't bother to count or he was lying. Either way, not acceptable. Since then, practically every stock is going up except those. Yeah, he should revisit that tweet. Yeah. What a chart. So do you think that?

We're on false breakdown. Oh, we had a false breakdown and watch? Or you think it's got lower lows? Here, go to the next one. So what we've seen since then, the NASDAQ has yet to make a new high and technology has massively underperformed in that environment.

But, and you know I like big butts. This is a big butt. Throw up the next one. But semiconductors make an all-time highs on a relative basis. How bad could it be for tech if semis are still rolling? It's a software issue. It's a mega-cap issue.

But if semis are rolling, how bad could things be? You're buying the weakness of Mega Cap Tech. I personally, I mean, I bought on this recently, but that's like, it's small, small communications equipment. I'm talking like Microsoft. Like, are you buying the weakness of Microsoft? I am not, I have not yet.

Microsoft looks heavy. I am not yet. I think that this is going to be a process. Meta looks lifeless. I want to look, I want to look elsewhere. Microsoft is worse than meta. So let's talk about where I do want to look, right? So go to the next one.

And as I mentioned, the world looks great. You know, it's not a bullmark. for America. It's a bull market for Earth, right? The planet that we live in. Bro, no earthlings. No, no, no, no tiny, nothewanian stocks today, please. No, no, no. We're not going to go do this country thing. Check the tape. Go back to when I was in the summer for the 200th episode. And then all of those are just higher and more to the right. Yeah. So we don't have to do this again. The world's making all-time highs. And if you exclude America, also still making all-time highs, we can move on. All right,

so what are we going to buy? So this one to me, I think this is a big chart right here. throw up the small caps there on a relative basis. So this is the Malachi Tony market, is what I call it. Just give the ball to the little guy and let him run with it. You know what I'm saying? Shout to Tony. I did this on... You got to get him on the show.

I would love to. I don't know what we would talk about. But go on. Anything. I did this as a week. Jesse, I'll make the case for this ratio, the Rost of the 2000 versus the large ones. That's going, dude.

It's working. This is... So, you know how you said asset prices trend? this one oscillates. It does. The Russell sucks. No, the relative ratio. Sucks everybody in.

We're talking about a relative ratio. No, I know. I'm just saying small caps suck everybody in periodically and then they roll. Is it going to stick this time? Yeah. I think so.

You want to walk through it together? Given how bearish I am, it'll probably stick. I think this might be the time. I really do. I hope it should. Well, why don't we do with some of the parts analysis of that?

So let's look at the index. Look at this base. Yeah. This thing has done nothing since the end of 21. Big of the base? Can I get one of these? Can I get another one? JC, bigger the base?

What do we say? The bigger the base, the higher in space. Louise? Is that funny? No, it's... I like it. So I asked Alan Shaw, rest in peace before he passed.

I'm like, where did you learn that? Because Louise Yamada says she learned it from Alan Shaw and Alan Shaw was older. And I'm like, Alan... That's why, isn't it? No. You always quoted Louise... Dude, Alan Shaw was like a zillion years old.

And he learned it from his predecessors and he started in the 50s. So his predecessors were trading in the 30s and 40s, And they taught him that. Wow. So this has to go way back. Huh. That's wild.

I did the homework. I did the due diligence. Right? So small caps going up, and this is not oscillate, Josh. Look at this long-term charge. This is from the lower left to the upper right, bro. Yeah. I think I meant, like, relative to the S&P.

Like, there are times the Russell outperforms, but it doesn't last long. I guess we'll see what happens. Relatively. Because look, put up the communist ones. So these guys discriminate, right? Because you can get, in the. Russell 2000, they'll let anybody in. But in the S&B 600, you got to be making money.

Yeah. How dare the only profitable companies. Yeah, you got to be making money to be in this. You get more financials in the 600, I think. So what's hilarious about fundamental analysis is that the ones with the Russell 2000 that you don't need earnings, you could be losing a fortune. Don't matter, you're in. They're doing a lot better than the companies that are only in if they're making money.

So if you're only buying good companies, you're missing out on the best performers. Yeah. Good companies, right? And then you could just look at the composition. you're getting a little more health care and you're getting less industrials a little bit on the Russell 2000, but relatively comparable. So I just wanted to show that.

You're getting a lot more consumer discretionary in the S&P 600. Russell 2000 is for the bigger small biotechs. Look, it's 19% biotech healthcare, which is mostly like profitless or barely profitable biotech. Yeah. It's 18% in, the SB 600 banks.

Yeah. So, makes sense. Let me say. And banks are still pretty big in the Russell 2000. Josh always says it's only regional. Let's do with some of the parts.

Let's do with some of the parts. So first of all, this is the small cap momentum index, making all-time highs. Okay. So this is not bearish, right? These are the momentum names doing well that tends to happen

in healthy market environments. Now go to the industrials. All-time highs for small-cap industrials, all-time highs for small-cap materials. right? All time highs for small cap technology. So when people are telling you that small cap stocks aren't working, maybe your small cap stocks aren't working, but clearly small cap stocks are working.

We can keep going. And then, you know, the small cap financials that you said, come on, is there a more important base in the stock market right now than this? How does this one resolve? Way higher. Way higher. What are the other ones doing? What the hell is the small cap financial?

Regional. That's it? There's 260 of them. They're not even like sub-regions, like thrifts. It's a lot. community banks. It's a lot of small banks. Yeah, yeah.

There's some other things mixed in there that are a little bit lost, but it's banks. Jackson Financial, Lincoln National. I think I own, I think Kinsale is in this group. Piper Sandler, Stepstone. We know these names. We know some of these. All right. I want to dive in there.

You also got a couple hundred biotechnology stocks. Biotech hitting the highest level since 2021. Healthcare big component. I don't like to trade charts biotech, given the nature of the tape bombs, good and bad. just, you know what I mean? But if you filter by companies that are above a billion dollars, you're eliminating a lot of that risk. And if you put together a basket of,

you should see my portfolio over the last year. You'd think I'm some kind of scientist or something. Like, every other stock has labs. Like, I feel like Dave Chappelle, yes, scientist, you know? So, and then look at discretionary. Look at that basin discretionary. This is small cap discretionary. It looks great.

And then look at small cap energy. right? And then I want to dive into energy before we hop for the day. Okay. So this is a, I remember where I was in the summer of 2008. The last time energy was here. I know, dude, this is like, I can't imagine this not being the trade of 2026. You and me were a beer bar. This will not be on any magazine cover anytime soon.

I'm waiting for, man, I'm waiting for it. Well, that'll be the end. That'll be the end. We got an Iran economist today. Does that count? I can't imagine this not being the gold of 26. I know. By the way, gold looks just like this before it broke out.

I'm telling you that I'm... Throw up the next one. I'm telling you that I'm bowled up on oil and gas. Here you go. Let me say. Yeah, so I'm long this stock, Exxon. Come on. It's going to...

I mean, I just... I don't understand how it's not 150 already. I know it moves slowly. It's a very big stock and moves very slowly. It's a big company. Okay. What else? Oil services?

Look at it. Trying to get above those O2 lows. I'm going to pitch you an oil service name in a minute. Okay. All right. Yeah. And then look at the relative ratio. Yeah.

Between XLE and the S&P 500. Yep. Right? The energy versus tech looks very similar. That's very good. And then here's one I like. I'm long this one. This is Salaris energy.

What do they do? I don't know. I'm just kidding. I know you don't know. Who cares? Allegedly, they're in the oil and gas space. But I don't know. Maybe it's a Ponzi scheme.

I don't know. I have no idea. Why would I know? Okay. All right. I mean, they're doing something, right? How many energy stocks do you know that look like this? Not a lot.

Right? The refiners look like that. Oh, they look good. And then so this chart comes from macro charts. Great, shout out to macro. He's a great follow across the board. Who is that? Who's macro charts?

Yeah. He's anonymous. But he's basically like the conciliati to like a bunch of like big hedge funds. Like he's the real deal. Okay. So this is a chart from him. This is the oil silver ratio going back to the 60s. Oh, strung by.

strong buy because people are talking about silver oh did you know that transistor chips require a certain amount of silver okay so if that's why you're really bullish on silver then you can buy oil here that's that's that's if that's like really the story

I think this is an interesting way to look at things that if you're if you're bullish of energy this is a what do you think of this? What do you think of this? I forgot to put this in the dock so I grabbed one chart from Todd our boy Todd's zone look at how hilarious this is Todd said this one for the D-Gents.

It's the pro shares ultra-short silver. So obviously this thing has been going vertically down. Yeah, crushed. Right? It's crashing. But, but normally nobody buys this. Like, there's no volume until people are trying to call the top desperately in silver. Desperately.

Desperately. Like, that's a dope chart. Throw up the silver. I got that thing. God damn. So this got a $100 roll. Yeah. $100 roll written all over.

I think that'll happen. All right. So, um, let's play. And then what? Let's play perma bear. All right. So what? Okay, so what's going to change all this?

What's going to change precious metals? What's going to change this massive international? Dollar breakout higher. So we came into the year looking for a break down in the dollar, right? Long Euro, long British pounds, long Swissy, long EM Forex. And that worked out great. If the dollar... Last year.

Last year. If the dollar breaks out above 100, I think that that's a problem. And we're starting to see a few cracks. And not every crack needs to turn into a market crash. But every major bear market... I was going to say that could give you, like, the correction that or the dip that hasn't happened yet. Every crash, every correction starts with a crack or two.

Here's a couple. Discretionary staples, not making new highs with the S&P making new highs. The Magnificent Seven hitting new four-month lows today on a relative basis. So if you're looking for a culprit for this particular cycle, that would be it. And then here's the Frankenstein, right? So it's the last chart. So this is the Frankenstein trade where the bonds have never been more dead. literally dead and stocks like that right we talked about this the other day vanguard put something out

saying the right portfolio asset allocation for this year is 40 stocks 60 treasuries and i can't believe i can't remember ever hearing them say that and i didn't even bother to track down what the rationale was but just that idea that like somebody's even saying that is interesting to me so that's weird they're not looking at the charts they obviously have another reason that they're going into a midterm year, we're in a midterm year, the worst of the four-year cycles, even though technically... That's what Fangard's looking at. Technically, when it's the second term...

The cycles... Joe Davis. Yeah, he's a mid-term cycle. I'm kidding. Year six, year-six for second term is not as bad. It's actually pretty good. But nevertheless, mid-term year, historically not great. So one can argue, what should we be looking out for for things changing? I think that that discretionary staples ratio, I think tech underperforming...

Dollar rally. Dollar rally. And I think bonds waking up because if they're... Look at the... How boring bonds have been over the last few years. Dollar rally. Forget about the implications for stocks. That's really bad for people that are chasing silver here.

I think it's bad for international stock investors. I think it's bad for silver, precious metals, rocks in general of any kind, whether it be of the precious or base variety. Can we go back to the previous chart? Yeah. So I think this is really interesting, the max ever one. I think up until now, people were waiting for like the dot-com divergence where you see the rest of the market and only the mag seven are the ones that are left standing and then of course

we know what happens next, it would be interesting if it's the reverse of time. If the leaders go first and now they pass the baton to the rest of the market and it's like a sort of fake handoff and then they all come tumbling down together. Maybe. That would catch every that would catch me off sides. I mean, that would be interesting. If the dollar's above 100, I think that's a big problem. If you start to see volatility pick up in the bond market, that's a big problem. You know, generally the trend is up for stocks. Like we want to be buying stocks. We want to be buying breakouts. And I don't necessarily think it's a binary outcome where like, oh, everything's going to get crushed. I think this is going to be a K-shaped market. Look what I see what I did there.

Come on, come on. That's pretty good. Pretty good. We like the K. So I think that rather than 2025, everything went up. Some went up more than others. I think we could be very high likelihood than in 2026, we can have huge winners, huge losers, and some that kind of just trade flat. I think that would be a very high likelihood. That's what I was doing. I agree. I think most investors be okay with that as long as they think they're going to be the ones that are in the ones that work. I guess we'll see. Be selfish, right? Be selfish. Hey, what a tour to force. Ladies and gentlemen, J.C. Peretz. That's what I'm seeing.

Thank you. And we will include a link in the description so people can check out your slides, Straza's slides from Stock Market Summit. Because we did, we did hours. I mean, Josh and Batonick and myself, we could be here all night, but they got things to do. I got nothing to do. They got things to do. Do you have your brokerage account open? and logged in? No. I want to pitch you some stocks. You might want to buy a couple of them.

Oh, I'm going to talk to my wife, Josh. No, I'm not pitching you, but I just want to get your take on these. Sean and I keep a list of the best stocks of the market. You know what we're looking for. The general idea is we buy strength. We're not looking for reversals and pieces of shit. We're not bottom fishing. Is that on the fact sheet?

Yeah. We're not storytelling. We're not listening to conference calls. It's not that we don't care. It's that that's not the selection criteria. Okay. So might have a personal interest in learning why a stock is going up, but it doesn't start there.

Okay. I want to show you a couple and just hear what you think. It doesn't really matter what I think of the technicals themselves. Morgan Stanley's been on Best Stocks the Market List, I think consistently since the summer. It's probably been a good seven, eight months. Man. And it is just the move today is obviously earnings driven. So let's assume a little bit of this today's move fades.

This is as good of an uptrend. this I've seen in this stock since I started doing this 30 years ago. I feel you normally don't see stocks like consistently for that long of a period of time sitting above the 50 days. Look how well behaved. Look how well behaved this is. And it's not that there haven't been like rough weeks, but like this stock has given no one any reason to sell it whatsoever if they're just focused on price.

What are your thoughts? I mean, financials in general have been a monster, right? European financials, Japanese financials. U.S. Money Center banks. All of them, just absolutely ripping. So it's more about the group that it's in or less about the stock itself.

I agree. These don't really separate that much from each other, large-cap U.S. financials. They tend to do what they're all doing. I agree with that for the most part. Yeah, I mean, you know. This one's not your favorite. It's not that it's not my favorite.

It's that they're all kind of like this, right? Where they're extended, you know, looking at Bank of New York, Melon, absolutely ripping. look at all these European banks. I mean, the trend is up. And for me, it's less about trading Morgan Stanley and more about thinking about the implications.

You know, if these financials are up, not just the United States, but globally, like, I'm old school. Like, I came up in the 2000s. I was there for the great financial crisis. We don't have bull markets in America without financials. And in the rest of the world, it's even more egregious when you look at the holdings of the companies in those indexes. So like...

I look at an MS, JC, and I just in my mind, well, how do they make money? They have everything in their favor. There are IPOs. There's M&A. The FTC isn't saying no to anything unless Trump wants to get something for himself out of it. So there's deals all over the place. You could bring companies public.

Asset management revenues are ripping because asset prices are at record highs. They make money as a treasury bond dealer, I think, during that business. Net interest margins, spread businesses. Like proprietary trading, fixed income commodities, currencies. There's nothing. they don't make money from. There's nothing that they're involved in that's not doing well right now.

I would say, I would say, 189 is a big number there. Big, a lot of market memory there going back, you know. Put up John G.S. To the great financial crisis highs. So if we start falling back below 189 and kind of holding below there, that could start to turn into a problem. But if you're above 189,

I mean, this is another 50% higher? Why not? Basically the same chart, Goldman Sachs. Yeah. Morgan Stanley's been an easier ride. You've had some trendline violations here along the way. I just think that's the nature of it being a higher baited name than Morgan Stanley, at least these days. But like huge winner.

Same trade. Same trade. Okay. I'm with you. All right. I group these together. Yeah. The trends are not down.

Here's a question. Next chart. You can't buy this with a straight face, right? Why? I don't know. I can't. So this KLA, this has been on the. best stocks in the market list for a while.

We wrote it up a few months back. It's been like a massive home run. This is, because this is parabolic to me. What do you think? You can't buy this stuff. No, I cannot. No way. Does the presence of a gap like that bother you?

No. That's a baby gap. Would it stop you from, that would not be the thing that would stop you from pushing by on a KLA? No, I'm looking at like 15 and a quarter. If we're about 15 and a quarter, I think you're fine. You know,

that gap is just evidence of, you know, relentless buying pressure. People are like, oh, J. Z, it's over, but it's like, well,

how can an overwhelming amount of buying pressure possibly be a bad thing? I don't know. I don't understand. Well, this is reacting to Taiwan semi's news today.

Sure. It can be a bad thing in the very short term, but who cares? Semiconductors are making all-time highs on a relative basis. So the fact that you're putting up

a semiconductor stock that's making a new high like it better be. Yeah, yeah. No, I agree with that. Next one. Here's another one. Here's another one.

We've been writing about this one all year. Lamb Research, LRCX, not as parabolic as KLA, but basically the same chart. Yeah, I mean, like, what do you want me to tell you? I mean, it's a bull market. The question is, can you hit buy on a new trade in this stock today? Or you would not do that. I mean, I wouldn't today because that's not how I trade. It doesn't mean that it can't go higher.

Like, 236 is a big one here. You know, this goes back to the dot-com bubble highs. 236 is a big one. So if you can click... Oh, you're looking at 25-year charts right now? Yeah, all of these stocks were like also part of the original dot-com bubble. Me and Leonardo Fibonacci, the Pisa, are getting down right now on this laptop. You know what I'm saying?

Okay. You know, 236 is the big one. 381 is next. So if it could stick that 236, yeah, I could keep going higher. But, you know, expect volatility. I mean, this thing's going to be down 10% in two days for no reason. For no reason. It's just going to happen.

It's just going to happen. It's just going to happen. It'll shake out the type of people who bought. today without even thinking about it. That's right. That's right. All right. Next group. Here's CBRA. In 45 minutes, I'm going to go pitch this with Sean at the New York Stock Exchange. I'm not going to tell you the fundamental story.

It's commercial real estate, which everyone obviously hates and thinks is a worthless asset class. And this stock doesn't give a shit what anyone thinks. And I love these types of setups where they're consolidating below resistance for a while and knocking on the door. Me too. And just to me, this is so obviously going to bring. It is the blue chip of the space. It's an asset light business in commercial real estate, which is an asset heavy sector. And they were going to treat it like a tech stock because they've transformed the whole

business from brokerage transactional commissions to an ARR model. Can I tell you something? And the street loves these stories. I'm buying the stock today. How about that? You just convinced me? Bang. I love this chart.

Do you like it? Yeah, I like it. 185 is coming. I'm buying this right now. All right. 185 and then after that. I'm not front running the CNBC pro people because I, I, I wrote it up this morning in the column.

260 after 185. All right. I don't own it yet. I might pull the trigger too. First solar. I don't know what to do with this. This stock's been on the best stocks in the market list. It still is...

These stocks are so volatile. For me, these are so hard to figure out where to enter, where to exit. But I... Think about it. While we're on the subject of 25-year charts... No solar stocks ever. Like, no solar stocks ever. No.

Because you lost money in N-phase? No, but... That wasn't good, though. No, dude, bro, this chart... Dude, bro. If you're going to do solar, you gotta do Chinese solar. Jay-C. Like, you're either going to go full junkie.

Or tan, the E-TF. Fine. You ever make money in solar stocks? Yes. And I've lost money, too. I mean, I've traded everything over the years. But check out a ray. But what are you...

What is the technical read? Somebody shows you this chart on a, on a trading desk. What's your answer to them? There's nothing here. It's a mess. It's a mess, right? Yeah, it's a messy. I like a ray better.

So I can't bring myself to write this one because it just looks, it looks weird. All right, I have one more pair. Wait, hang on. What does CBRA do before I buy it? I don't care. Great. One more pair of stocks, oil services. This is Baker Hughes.

I love this break. I love this breakout. I want to buy this too. Look at the long term on Baker Hughes. This seems like pretty momentous above 50. Can't this go to 100 bucks? I mean, are they still counting rigs? Do you forget about all that.

Do you know that... That's a thing that they do. Crude hasn't even rallied yet, and this stock is breaking out. When crude goes, this stock really goes. And that hasn't even happened yet. And why Baker News and not like Halliburton? Well, that's my next chart. Halliburie!

Here's Halliburton. Halliburton's already gone. And the Slumberger? That's also on my list. Go to this restaurant and order the Slumber. No pickles. Do you like this Halliburton better than, Baker Hughes. I mean, I like energy. I'm long energy. I'm getting more long energy. You know,

oil services, you know, pick which one you like. They're probably going to move together. Higher beta is going to move more. You know, if you want to get junky, go offshore drill or something like that. But like, you know, if you want to get an energy, you can get an energy. And there's a few ways to get the juice. You can either go down the cap scale and buy some junkier stuff or you can be in the derivatives market with the bigger names, you know, I think either way. I think the services names could all rip this year with a tiny bit of help from crude. Nobody owns them. But you need a much bigger moving crude in order for like the oil producers to make that kind of move.

I think the services can just go because they're going to go. And the refiners have been going. And they're already broke out. Americans just, Americans don't own it. And I think that there's a squeeze to be had there. Right. Because if everybody owns something, it's probably a little too late. The fact that the NASDAQ is zero percent energy.

S&Ps are two percent. energy, Dow's 2% energy. How much less energy could these things be? Nobody owns it. Nobody's got. Last question, totally off topic. I just was curious to get your thoughts on and I forgot to text you. Can prediction markets be analyzed by technicians? They're just so illiquid.

Let's say they were more liquid. Let's say they became more popular and there was higher contract volume. Could you look at a yes, no chart for any subject and determine buyers versus sellers or levels. I mean, listen, it's no levels. At the end of the, it's not levels. At the end of the day, what are we doing as technical analysts, as technicians? We're analyzing the behavior.

Oh, what are we doing? Oh, we're analyzing the behavior of the market. This kid's literally trading right. I told you I was behind it. I'm in CBRA. We're looking at the behavior of the market and market participants. So if these prediction markets didn't suck so much and they weren't just a bunch of glorified penny stocks, at least the penny stock people tell you that they're penny stocks,

these people are like, oh, it's the prediction market. So you're fucking gambling like an idiot, right? Like idiots gamble. Oh, so you're not a fan. No, so that I'm a fan is that they're nothing. It's an irrelevant penny stocks scam. Like, it's not anything. You know, Thomas Petterfee came on halftime report last week and wanted to debate me,

founder of interactive brokers, brilliant, brilliant man, great man. Yeah. He wanted to debate me. It turns out we didn't really disagree. He had made a statement that he thinks prediction markets will become larger than the securities market. Yeah, I heard that. I said. Multiple people have.

said that. I said, I don't think so. Not because there's no merit to prediction markets. I think the binary nature of them, people will lose money and lose interest very quickly. You remember binary options? Well, yeah. I mean, is, they're just rebranding that. That was a scam and a lot of people lost money and people went to prison. What was the binary options thing? Exactly. I totally forgot. I remember the term, but I forgot what people were trading. You know, everybody's in front. They're buying up down on a stock? Everybody's, every, it's, it's the outcome. It was a binary outcome. And that was what the option was. And then they canceled all that because people were trying to manipulate.

No, I don't. Josh's point is. They're going to say that about the prediction market. Remember the prediction markets? No, it's not going away. But people do not like all or nothing outcomes. Because with the stock, if you're wrong, you could take, all right, I'll take, I'll I'm an investor now.

I'm an investor. No, no. My max loss is 8% and that's it. With the prediction outcomes for the most part, not for the most part, unless you're buying selling, unless you're trading them, you're right or you're wrong. You make money and you lose money. Well, there's no assets. So there's no.

There's nothing there. It's a Fugazi. Like, look at the stock market. It's positive sum. It's $70 trillion in the stock market. And the pie is growing. There's like a couple of hundred million dollars in all the prediction markets combined. Well, they just started.

So why does he think- It's irrelevant? So interactive brokers launched, obviously, every other brokerage launched prediction markets. So I understand, like, being promotional about it. I wonder, and I wish I got to ask him, but it's TV. I had like 20 seconds. I wonder why he thinks that binary bets

are going to become a bigger market than the securities markets, which includes bonds. Why would that happen? First of all, the CEO of calls you said the same thing. But the point is, is that...

Of course he did. If you're the CEO of a company, your job is not, and I don't know this guy that you said you were going to fight or whatever. I don't know any of these people. No, no fight.

He's a legend. He's a legend. He owns 90% of the equity of interest. I'm sure he loves his kids. My point is that that's not the point. The CEO of a company, their job is to make money for shareholders, right? So if going on TV and telling the whole world that this penny stock market is going to be bigger than the entire stock market,

that's what his job is. Like, even if it's like the dumbest thing in the world, he's helping his shareholders as he should. You're right. Guess right. What's a better business? Commission free trading or taking a rake in the prediction market? Way better. I think it's interesting that Robin Hood is all in prediction markets.

Vlad said it too. Vlad's super horny after the production markets. Glad's never been hornier. He told us here on the show. And then Schwab's like, no, we're not doing that. It's a fade all day. Yeah. It's the latest, it's like the latest gimmick that like people that can't stay focus and they're chasing the next shiny thing.

I told that to Flatt. Those are the types of people that are chasing. I said, flat, I think everybody's drunk on this stuff. Like, I don't think it's going away. I think it's going to grow. But the way that we're talking about it is so insane, in my opinion. I think it'll be very, very niche. I think it'll be very niche and it'll be a lot of fun to watch, like, people bet on things and watch the election stuff especially.

I can't imagine it becoming like a gigantic market. I just, maybe I'm an idiot and will laugh at me in three years. I think I'm more on your side. For the record, I hope that you and I are idiots and we're dead wrong because that would be cool. But these are glorified penny stocks with no. liquidity and if you are gambling on these things instead of actually owning assets, I think, in my humble opinion, that you're a fucking moron, right? And anybody who's telling you to bet instead of investing assets.

Don't hold back. Don't hold back. Say what you really feel. All right. I hope I'm wrong. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for, thank you for joining us on this edition of the compound and friends. I would like to give a huge thanks to our friend J.C. Perrette. J.C's research can be found that. trendlabs.com J.C. personally can be followed on X.com.

It's X.com slash J.C. underscore Peretz X. We have to work on that. It's no good. We've got to figure that. All right. And you're on LinkedIn. J.C. Peretz. CMT is in charge of market technician. Anywhere else people should be going?

Only fans, right? Only fans. Yeah. And follow me on the polymarket.com. I got my profile in there. That's right. And if you're anywhere within the vicinity of the national championship game on Monday, you will probably be able to hear J.C. cheering for the U.

Dude, there's other loud, obnoxious Cubans there, by the way. I know. I don't have the only one. All right. Guys, thank you so much for listening. Thanks for watching. We'll see you soon. Oh, yeah.

That was, dude, that was amazing. Thank you.