The Compound and Friends - When in Doubt, Zoom Out

Episode Date: July 28, 2023

On episode 103 of The Compound and Friends, Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown are joined by JC Parets to discuss: value vs growth, JC's favorite charts right now, volatility strategies, US homeowner equity, a strategist short squeeze, Lionel Messi in Miami, and much more! Thanks to J.P. Morgan Asset Management for sponsoring this episode. To learn more about their ETF offerings, visit: www.jpmorganetfs.com Check out the latest in financial blogger fashion at The Compound shop: https://www.idontshop.com Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Josh Brown are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. Wealthcast Media, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information. Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here: https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

No, I just, I have no, I have no energy left after, like everything's a reason, so everything's a reason to drink. It's like, oh, let's, let's go on jet skis, drink. Let's go to the beach, drink. Let's hang out by someone's pool, drink. It's like, I have no energy to do anything after that. Let's look at, let's look at some charts. Well, yeah. Glass of wine. Might make an exception for that. When you look at your charts, you pour a glass of wine?

I'm shooting like 87% from the field during the summer. Like stock market-wise? No, I'm just drinking 87% of the place. Yeah, the summer is the right. In the summer, when my kids are away. No, but that's always an excuse. First of all, can I just tell you? No, but I'm saying when my kids are away, it's even harder.

Can I just tell you that I just had the best home of concept of 17 courses, me and Tom Lee, down in the village. Where? It's called Geico? Genco? The insurance company? Not Geico. Wait, what did you have?

I'm pretty sure it's Geico. What did you have? 17 courses of what? Omakase. Sushi. Where the sushi chef chooses. And then I added a few more, so it was like 20-something. For lunch?

Wait, 17 courses, but each one is a bite? Correct. Wait, is this for lunch, you animal? Well, I have like problems. I have like real sushi problems. That's why I opened an account with you guys, because if not, I would just spend all my money on raw fish. Sushi problems.

They do have issues. Yeah, what's going on with your wine? We're on our third vintage. What is it really called? Genko? Geico. Yeah, Genko. That's it.

Yeah, Genko. Genko. Genko Omakase. So I prefer AIG. What is that chart? What is that? What are these lines? I can't say.

Is that MACD? How come you and I never get sushi? What is what chart? This is RSI. And this is price. We always eat steaks when you and I are out. We never, or Italian. We never get sushi.

I didn't know you got down like that. You get down? What? I don't eat, no, I don't do Omakase. I eat three kinds of sushi. Tuna, salmon, and spicy tuna. I'm not going with you. That's what I do.

Tom Lee gets down, dude. You don't want to go with him. We really enjoyed that. I'm not fun. He's a smart guy. I eat shrimp tempura. I'll eat the one with the shrimp. Is that ebi?

Are you serious? Yeah. I can't even with this guy. That's what I do. Yeah. I can't with you. You know what I had for lunch today? P.O.P.O.

P.O.P.O. is great. Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's the last time we lunch today? Uh, P.O.P.O. P.O.P.O.'s great. Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's the last time we hung out. Mine was better. Were you on the show in February? January. January?

First show of the year, remember? You said it was going to be the best one of the year. Oh, you and Strauss. That was a good one. Were you right about pretty much everything you said? No. Well, what did you get wrong? Because everything that I remember, it seems like you nailed. Well, as much as I appreciate that, um, you know, we rotated nice into growth and that worked out really well.

Oh, you're bullish gold. That's what you got wrong. Well, gold's been fine. And some of the energy stocks haven't really done much either yet, which we'll talk about today. We've been way more right this year than wrong. Credit to you. Well, fortunately, like we take the time to count how many stocks are going up, and there was just a lot of them going up.

You got the participation thing right way before anyone else. Yeah. That more stocks were in their own individual bull markets than most people thought. And you definitely had that one. Who are we talking about with energy stocks? I said Oxy looks so bad. And they just bounced pretty hard since I said that.

I think they're going up. Who said that? I think they're going up too, man. Because oil is going up. I think commodities are just being left for dead. I think people are just, they're not into the commodities. They got all junked up on this tech again. And that's when the rug pull comes.

Commodities look good, right? Right now? Good is a strong word. Not terrible is probably more accurate. Good-ish? Better. Decent? And you know, you're seeing the relative strength out of oil services, which has never happened ever. I feel like they're always the worst

companies. Can I point out? I haven't looked at this in a while. You're right. The rug pull that you're referring to, Microsoft is down since it reported I haven't looked at this in a while. You're right. The rug pull that you're referring to. Microsoft is down, since it reported, 21 points and counting. 21 points. How many points? What's the denominator, son?

Nobody talks points. People talk points. Traders talk points. People talk points all the time. Thank you. People don't talk points. What people do you talk to? How many points is Microsoft trading at? 430 points right now. It was at 350. See, I do. What people do you talk to? Tell me who you talk to. How many points is Microsoft trading at? 430 points right now.

It was at 350. See, that matters, though. Fine. It was at 350. But you trade in points. No, you trade in percent. No, you don't trade in percent. You're a financial advisor.

You think in percent. But in the real world, in the non-financial advisor world, it's not like that. Yeah, school this kid. So you don't care how much percentage points you make. I do care. We just don't talk that way. We don't talk that way. We're talking about points you make? I do care. We just don't talk that way. Points. We don't talk about that.

We're talking about points. We're talking about moves. Yeah, points, baby. Let's go. 20 points, 10 points. Stocks move in points. Yeah, bro. Facebook is LODing.

All right, whatever with your fucking nonsense. Can I just say what my point was that I was trying to make, though? Is that… People taking profits? Yeah, Microsoft had great earnings earnings but it went up so much and it's down 21 points. Sorry. It's probably down 7%

or 6% since they reported. Yeah. That's all I'm saying. Yeah. For you remedial mathematicians who need a hand holding with your percentage.

We're at an inflection point. Stop taking a pause. It's okay. Which ones though? The indexes. We'll talk. We'll get granular. Whose problem is that now? We're going to lift under the hood.

We're going to get under the hood. That's not our problem. We're going under the hood. It's certainly not mine. We're going deep under the hood. We will go as deep as you want, my friend. Very. So these guys were in Hong Kong.

So I'm like, you got to go into Kowloon and go as deep as possible. So Kowloon is like the Brooklyn of Hong Kong, right? So you got to go over. It's really nice. And it goes forever. And the deeper you go, the less English and the more Cantonese

and all this. And I was like, how deep did you go? They're like, deeper than you want to know. Oh. Who's this? Stras and Sean.

Meaning like they went to an area that there are no other tourists. Like the last tourists. The deeper you go into like, the deeper you go into into like flushing, for example, you know, like how many white guys from Westchester are you going to see there, right? Right. So they're just stumbling around Asia, like meeting traders and investors. They made it home. They're back.

Oh, they're home. Okay. The video is hilarious. It's so funny. These guys are out of control. What are you doing with that? Well, we're turning into a docuseries. Remember, I've been to all these countries. Video's hilarious. It's so funny. These guys are out of control. What are you doing with that? Well, we're turning into a docuseries.

Remember, I've been to all these countries. Singapore, KL, Philippines. KL? What's KL? Kuala Lumpur. Kuala Lumpur. Remember, what's that movie where there's a guy with a hand at the end? Sean Connery. Yeah, Sean Connery.

What's that movie? Sean Connery. And Catherine Zeta-Jones. They're stealing something from- Oh, Entrapment. The Twin Towers? Entrapment. Is that what it was called?

Yeah, that's K.O. Good movie. I was thinking Rogue Trader. Ewan McGregor? Yeah. I love that movie. Straza looks a little like Catherine Zeta-Jones. Kind of.

So you sent him to all these countries. And Sean. And Sean. Wait, Connery? I thought he died. What's the cinematographer's name? Giancarlo. Giancarlo.

So you're going to show this. Where are you going to show it, though, like when it's done? Cannes. I don't know. We have such amazing footage. We've got to figure out what to do with it. I mean, it's a 10-episode series, an episode per city. But we have so much sick content.

Like, we could do anything with it. Is the city the right way to break it up? I guess we'll see. They have opinions now. So we'll see what happens when they fly back. They're like, oh, you know. The talent? The talent has opinions.

Don't let the talent direct from an airplane. I'm trying to tell them what to do. I told them to go to a baseball game. They didn't go to a baseball game. They went to go get more sushi, which I, you know. Did they go sumo? I was there for game seven of the sumo, like, World Series, if you will, but it's 15. Yeah, like the equivalent. It was the 15th day of the tournament, which is like if you will, but it's 15. Yeah, like the equivalent.

It was the 15th day of the tournament, which is like… Is it exciting? Dude, it's crazy, bro. It's crazy. It's probably the wildest sporting event I've ever seen in my life. It's like… Sumo. Sumo.

Wait, go on. Go on. Why? Well, first of all, the audience there is of every sex, age, demographic. You got young kids, older women, everything in the world. of every sex, age, demographic. You got young kids, older women, everything in the world. So it's complete,

as opposed to like a football game for us, it's going to be a bunch of drunk dudes and like some women every now and then and maybe a kid or two. But like, right? It wasn't like that there. And every match gets better. So it's like maybe 50 matches throughout the day. So like in the morning,

it's like the younger kids, like the up and comers. And then with every match in the afternoon until finally the main event. Yeah, it's like an undercard leading into... But all day. And this is the last day. What? I'm going to be Honda from Street Fighter. Yes.

Well, it's funny because when you look at the different... They're all Japanese except for a few guys. There's like a couple of Mexicans and like some Romanian guys. And you can just tell by how much hair they have on their back because the japanese guys don't have any hair at all but then like these russians come in there and they're just giant bears full of hair like it's just pretty funny because they stand out and see it's crazy if you can get every get a chance to see sumo in tokyo where does the audience sit in relation to the this what they're on like a mat they're like on a raised, they're like on a raised mat.

They're like squares and you sit down on the squares and like each square is for four people. Okay. And it's way too small for like Americans. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Smaller Japanese people, it's probably more convenient.

Yeah. For you and me, bro, it's just not, like it's not going to cut it. I wonder why they haven't brought sumo to like MSG, like fly over the best. They probably do. I feel like they probably do. Maybe we don't know about it. Maybe we don't know about it. They probably do. gonna cut it i wonder why they haven't brought sumo to like msg like fly over the best i feel

like maybe we don't know maybe we don't know about it they probably but is that more fun than like watching different martial artists like like watching like ufc yo it's crazy so the referees so with every match the the the match is more important the referees get ups get crazier so by the time you should see what. Wait, what do you mean? What do you mean? These guys have on these ridiculous get ups. All different colors.

Like just they look like Cinderella. The refs are in costume. Oh shit, look at this. Dude, they're out of control. So with every event the refs Look at this guy.

Dude, you should see these things. So the Yokozuna fight at the end is best two out of three. It's the only one that's best two out of three. And you should see this guy. They're called Gyojis. Wait, what's Yokozuna? Is that the name of the athlete? That's the name of the grand champion of the event.

Okay. So that's how you want to become that, you're saying? They date all the models and all the actresses. They're the ones who crush it in Japan. Okay. They're like the Tom Brady of Japan. How big are they? Look at these guys.

360, 370. You guys sound like a bunch of gaijin. Get out of here. Go back to North Carolina. Sit down. Let's hit start before I lose interest in this whole thing. We don't have John today, JC. Nicole is filling in nicole is this is like the biggest test of your right are you ready career are you nervous i asked her if i had enough charts i heard

you showed up with 400 charts i deleted some all right let me get into my doc all right guys what are we doing we're good okay all right michael's mich Michael's Googling sumo wrestlers. He's going to fall into a rabbit hole. Dude, I'm telling you, man. You guys. And then I saw this other guy with like a Pittsburgh Steelers hat on. And I forget what I was wearing, but I think it was a Miami Dolphins shirt. And we both walked by each other.

We were the only non-Japanese people there. And he walked by me. He's like, yo, this shit is crazy, huh? And I'm like, yeah, yeah, yeah. We just kept walking. Like we knew like we were both like in a different planet. It was pretty funny, actually. I love yeah. We just kept walking. Like, we knew, like, we were both, like, in a different planet. It was pretty funny, actually. I love it.

All right, here we go. Coming in with three claps. Wait, wait, wait. I'm nervous. Why? No, I'm just kidding. Go. What episode is this, Nicole?

Michael, who is the Comhead Friends, episode one. She's better than John at that. She's better than John at that. She's good. Welcome to The Compound and Friends. All opinions expressed by Josh Brown, Michael Batnick, and their castmates are solely their own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions. Clients of Ritholtz Wealth Management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. This episode of The Compound and Friends is sponsored by JPMorgan Asset Management.

Whether you're looking to build a complete diversified portfolio or target specific regions, factors, and strategies, you can choose from more than 50 innovative, low-cost ETFs. To learn more, go to jpmorganetfs.com. All right. I mean, this is like, this is a homecoming, fan favorite. JC Peretz is here. JC joins us for the second time this year, but we've just established that

your first appearance this year was the first show. That's right. It was January, and obviously a lot about what the market was doing since then is different than today. Let me just,

let me play something real quick that I think is apropos for what the show is going to be about. Bear with me. You gotta, you gotta somehow get yourself out of that pickle and say I was wrong. But with the mea culpa, his year end target is 4,200. Talking about Mike Wilson.

So it's just more of the same, right? Yes, that's right. You can tell people are still bearish because the strategist year end target on average is 8% downside. And the the strategies reflect the buy side sentiment. So most professional investors think the market's going to go down between now and your end. Good. Yeah. Have you been wrong more?

All right. That is, of course, the illustrious Tom Lee. Tom's having much more fun this year than last year, would you say? I don't read his research, so I don't know. Okay. Listen, man, this is a very different tape than what we started the year with. But let me back up and do an official introduction. JC is a compound fan favorite and founder, chief strategist for All-Star Charts.

He is a technical analyst. And All-Star Charts is a technical analysis research platform. It's used by hedge funds, RIAs, family offices, sumo wrestlers, individual investors. JC Peretz, welcome back to the show. Great to have you. Thank you for having me. Appreciate it. Thank you.

Thank you. I'm being told to lower the volume on my thing. It's liquid death. They come in flavors now? Yeah. It's very good. Sever Liquid Death. They come in flavors now? Yeah. It's very good. Severed lime. Is it carbonated?

Yeah, it's carbonated. I had my first Liquid Death at Lindzen's house in Coronado like five years ago, believe it or not. Oh, really? I heard they just sold this company for like a gigantic amount of money. Yeah. Water. Big business, water. Did Howard invest?

Yeah. It's not just that it's water. A cursory internet search told me that it looks like a invest? Yeah. It's not just that it's water. A cursory internet search told me that it looks like a beer. Yeah. And a lot of people are not drinking alcohol anymore, or not as much as we used to. Oh my god, this guy stopped f***ing drinking for 10 days. No!

Not me! He stopped for 10 days and I even brought it! Unbelievable. Not me. A lot of people are more into... I won't send him wine, I'll send you wine. Thank you. A lot of people are... There's a backlash't send them wine. I'll send you wine. Thank you. A lot of people are- There's a backlash. Everyone started drinking way too much during the pandemic, and now people are drinking less.

That's all I'm saying. That's all I'm saying. So if you walk around a party with one of these, it doesn't look like a Poland spring bottle. Sure. Can we all agree on this? That's a fact. Okay.

That's all I'm saying. Okay. All right. JC, have you brought any charts for us today? If you had to guess. All right. Nicole, are you ready for this for us today? If you had to guess. All right. Nicole, are you ready for this? Look at this guy.

But he's out here naked. Actually, JC, you know, the shirt I almost wore today, for those who are just in listen-only mode on this podcast, I'm wearing Fibonacci's My Homeboy. At first, I had the cell puts naked. But I think that was a little bit too risque. It is a bull market. I know.

I want Fibonacci. Dude, what's going on? Are we going to— Is this just going to continue through the end of the year? Did you hear what I said? Today is a key reversal day. Short term. Key reversal day?

Yeah. You sure? I'm not sure. No, I'm not sure. I don't know what tomorrow happens. The Dow just went up 13 days in a row or something. Yeah. So we're down one day.

Yeah. Okay. But it's outside. This is the big one. It's an outside day. Don't put charts in my mouth. I'm not saying that. All right. Let's go. Let it's outside. This is the big one. It's an outside day. Don't put charts in my mouth. I'm not saying that. All right.

Let's go. Let's get into what you think is going on. The people demand to hear from you. Well, no, listen, and I appreciate the invite and all the kind words, of course. And just keep in mind, you know, we could do this all night, as you guys are well aware. We could be here for hours and hours and hours. A lot of what you said at best. Order food, you know, order some cocktails, and we could do this all night.

So obviously, we're not going to do that. We're going to try to just kind of bring up – is that good? Yeah, it's good. Yeah, you're happy about that? In the old days, we used to drink tequila. We used to drink tequila when we did this. Now we got to be drinking seltzer. It's a full market.

We're evolving. We're evolving. Come on. Let's go. Breath deterioration. Okay. So we're seeing new 52-week highs in both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transports.

And I know a lot of this might be common sense, but I think a lot of investors fail to realize that when you look back at all of the bear markets in history, you don't get a lot of new 52-week highs in those bear markets, right? Like just strong downtrends. You're just not going to see a lot of new highs. So this is just further evidence of all of the other things that we've been seeing for over a year. This is Dow theory confirmation. I mean, you don't like the word confirmation, but yeah, I mean, it's not a divergence. I mean, it's just, yeah, it's a

reiteration. It's a confirmation. It's just, Hey guys, we're making new 52 week highs. So all that other stuff that we're seeing that says the same thing, like this isn't saying anything differently. I looked at the components of the Dow Jones transportation average earlier this week. It's like, it's like everything that you want to see going up,

if the prevailing narrative is now going to be that, oh, actually, the economy is re-accelerating now that inflation has cooled off. It's UPS. Wait, you guys having

deja vu? We did that last time we spoke about transports. No, I know, but it's trains. It's automobiles. Is Uber in there? We had the conversation, I know we the transports. No, I know, but it's trains. Automobiles. Is Uber in there? I know we had this conversation last time. I can't remember.

But everything that you want to see going up is going up. Airlines. If it closes right here, it's the highest monthly close of all time. Is that bullish? For the transports? Going all the way back to Charlie. Yeah, right. I was going to say, that sounds super bearish.

Okay. Does that have a new all-time high? Is that traditionally bearish? No, not at all. Not at all. Okay. All right. So this is good to have.

Even if you don't believe in Dow Theory or you think it's outdated or whatever, it's not a negative thing that this is going to be. Now, also, let's remember when you talk about Dow Theory, this is probably one of the least relevant Dow Theory tenants. Remember, closing prices are the most important price. That's Dow Theory. Asset prices trend. That's Dow Theory. I mean, there's a lot more than just, you know, you have different, you have bull markets, you have bear markets. All of that is Dow Theory.

So this is just one of those where you have the companies that make the goods and then you have the companies that deliver those goods. And then if you want to argue that we don't deliver our goods through railroads or automobiles or airlines anymore and we deliver them through computers and semiconductors. Well, they're making new highs also. That's right. It's not as though the SMH is at a 52 week low. Right. Okay. Got it.

All right. What are we doing next? Let's go. So this is what you were talking about. And it's less about, well, the last time that the Dow went up 13 days in a row and it was a full moon on a Wednesday, you know, on a pre-election year. Stop making fun of Ryan Dietrich right this minute. He's a friend of the show.

I'll not have it. Go ahead, keep going. My point is it's less about data mining and more about when you see just a relentless bid, whether it's a rate of change, an expansion in new highs, just relentless buying. Yeah.

That tends to not happen near the end of cycles, but near the early stages. So it's less about whether it was 11 or 12 or 13 or 14 or 10, and more about the fact that we're seeing these thrusts of relentless bids that tends to happen closer to the beginning than the end. I know I'm preaching to the choir here, but can you explain to the audience or just affirm that an overwhelming amount of demand for stocks is not a bad thing, even though some people tend to think that that precedes a crash? Yeah, I mean, there's a few things here. So we know mathematically, it's not like a guess. It's not like there's a random walk or like the efficient market hypothesis. All of that has been proven.

None of that is right. Those were just theories. They were proven wrong. We know for a fact that asset prices trend. Yes. We know. Yes. There's common sense. You could just see it in the charts. They go up for a while. They go down for a while.

But you could also do the math, and you'll also see that, yes, asset prices trend. It's volatility that mean reverts. The problem with most investors is that they are betting that asset prices are always mean reverting. And the technical analysis books do a great job of reiterating the mean reverting strategies and less the trend following strategies, which is one of the many reasons why investors are always looking for mean reversions when they should be betting on asset prices trending.

And then on the volatility side, they do the opposite. They think high volatility is going to lead to higher volatility. Why do we do that? Oh, that's such a great point. We do that because of the gambler's fallacy. Yeah, it's backwards. We do that for the same – this is what built Las Vegas. People think the roulette wheel just was red eight times.

It's got to be black either this time or the next. It's not going to be ten times that black. And, of course, every time you spin the wheel, the probability is 50-50. What happened before is not – OK. That was the key insight that Bugsy Siegel and Meyer Lansky had like literally to set up these table games and pick one. They're all based – everything is based on this gambler's fallacy of what goes up must come down. What was red must be black. Even must be odd.

So we know the stock market doesn't work that way but that point about volatility is the thing that mean reverts meaning you get a year like 2019 i don't know if you remember this i do people were complaining that there wasn't enough volatility for wall street 17 also 2017 27 maybe it was in 2017 that was like the worst complaint on wall street that year where's the? The meme was how many straight days without a 1% move, remember? Alright, so all those dickheads got the volatility they wanted in 2018. Here you go.

Plenty. Two crashes inside of one year. Well, I think the answer is that there's a time and a place for everything. There's a time to employ strategies that are good for low volatility environments, and there's times to employ strategies that are good for high volatility environments. We there's times to employ strategies that are good for high volatility environments. We're not in a high volatility environment.

So your high volatility strategies are going to suck. You know, you're, you know, you want to sell puts, you're not going to get paid to sell puts. One other thing on the relentless bid, you don't have to track, you don't have to track how many days the Dow is up. Just eye test your own stocks. Does it feel like a bear market? Like just look, look at your own portfolio at Robinhood or E-Trade or Goldman Sachs or wherever your stocks are. And you don't need the stats. You know.

Well, I don't think it's that simple. Different people own different things, Josh. So if you're in a diversified portfolio and S&Ps have done what they've done, you're doing well. But if you're like loaded up in meme stocks, or you're loaded up in- I think we could agree, most investors own Apple. Most investors. I guess. Are we going to do this again?

No, no. JC, when I was on with you in Straza, we were talking about how it's like, I'm using air quotes, only the big stocks going up. But what happens is that in bull markets, the rest of the market tends to catch up. And that's exactly what we saw over the last couple of weeks.

Well, when we were last here, it was the big stocks that were not going up. They were the only ones not going up. No, I'm saying when I was out with you in Straza a couple of weeks ago. Oh, recently. Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes. By the way, plug that show. What's it called? So we have the morning show. We do the morning show every day from 8.30 to 10 on Stock Market TV. And it's a lot of fun. We're doing this stuff anyway. We're at our desk watching the open, talking about what's moving, everything like that. So we just do it live. That's why we record it the Open, talking about what's moving, everything like that. So we just do it live.

That's why we're recording. JC, how important is – so I know we're going to get to all your charts, and I don't want to be too short-termist here. But I'm looking at the RSP, which is the equal weighter, the S&P. So RSP right now is engulfing the four previous days, meaning the high was higher than all of the previous four days. And depending on where the close is, which is 30 minutes away than all of the previous four days. And depending on where the closes, which is 30 minutes away. That is one big red candle. The red is lower than the lowest level of the previous four. That looks like a stick of dynamite. Of the previous four days. Yeah. So is this the type of thing that you're looking at? You're like, yeah, I'll wait. Listen,

we're in a bull market clearly. I'm not going to let one outside day say that it's over. The top is in. I'm asking you. I think the top could be in for some stocks. I would bet that it is for the year, actually. Oh, really? Yeah, for sure. I think a lot of stocks probably have peaked for the year and a lot of stocks are nowhere near the peak. I think the back half of the year is going to be, I think, very bifurcated where you can have a series of outcomes. One of which is you get such strong rotation into things like energy, materials, industrials, things that have much lower representation in the major indexes, while

the larger ones that actually have done so well in the first half of the year might go sideways, maybe down a little, maybe a few of them go up. Good, it's enough. Well, whether it's good or not, it depends on what you own. But my point is, we can see a situation where there are huge winners at the individual stock and sector level, for that matter, and the indexes have a hard time going higher. Maybe they're a little higher, maybe they're a little lower, or you get that rotation and the relative strength comes from all those areas, but the big ones don't get hit and they kind of just grind higher slowly, comes from all those areas,

but the big ones don't get hit and they kind of just grind higher slowly, dragging the indexes up too. I think the former is probably, you know, more of a sideways grind, maybe down a little bit, but the huge winners underneath the surface, I think is what I'm betting on. I think it's gotten too easy and too automatic

to buy the big seven. And anytime that I can remember where it's just become so obvious what to do, that's, it might not be the top forever, but it's usually a short-term top. And I don't know how to quantify that. Cause I probably could have said the same thing three weeks ago and they kept

going up. wouldn't you say that this year is a complete reversal in terms of mega cap or different caps in 2022 RSP kicked the shit out of SPY. That's right. Why don't we show that chart? You know what? It's enough of me. Let's get to your chart.

Yeah, why don't we get to that chart? Let's go next. Skim down a few charts. One more. This is the one. Okay, yeah. So I think this is a good one because what it shows is the equally weighted S&P 500

relative to the market cap weighted in black. And then overlaid on that in blue is the value versus growth. So exactly what you were just saying, Badnik, this year, all year, both of these lines, black and blue, have been declining, which means that growth has been outperforming. That says that blue line is going down. It's crazy how well they line up with each other. Because what's in the market cap weighted S&P 500. Yeah, it's all growth. It's all growth. So when people are like, well, JC, the equally weighted S&P is not keeping up

with the cap weighted. It's not because of bad breath. It's because of sector rotation. It's not a breath story. It's a rotation story. It's a growth versus value story. That's it. So last year, everything was working

except for mega cap growth. Literally everything was working. And then this year, mega cap growth took over that leadership. And it was just a coincidence. It was kind of working. And then this year, mega cap growth took over that leadership. And it was just a coincidence. It was kind of the first week of the year, which is why a lot of year-to-date charts are so obnoxious. It's because that's when the rotation happens.

Dude, RSPSPY peaked or bottomed, depending on which is on the numerator denominator, on January 11th. So it's been one way all year. And you can see it. And then when you look at, well, JC, the Dow's not keeping up with the NASDAQ. The S&P's not keeping up with the NASDAQ. It's the same story. And you can see it. And then when you look at, well, JC, the Dow is not keeping up with the NASDAQ. The S&P is not keeping up with the NASDAQ. It's the same story.

He's doing you. That's his impression of you. No, I know it is. All right. Keep going. It's a general you. It's not necessarily just. The yous.

The yous. Yous. No, hold on. Go back. Go back real quick. So you see how the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P NASDAQ ratios look exactly like the ones above? It's a sector rotation thing. It has nothing to do with market breadth.

Yeah. Doesn't this look like, though, that it's about to— Go up. Bounce off of an extreme? Yes. Both of these? Agreed. Okay.

Is that going to be important later? I think it's already important. Okay. Well, and also interest rates, right? Well, that's the big question. We'll get there. I mean, interest rates right like you that's the big question i mean interest rates are ripping right now so you would think that's indicative of support for these two charts i agree look at you mr inner market guy all right all right all right all right i see you dog someone's listening i'm paying attention let's go jc let's go we'll go drink later um all right

so these are the sector returns since the bull market started in June of last year. So we are now in month 14 of this bull market led by consumer discretionaries on an equally weighted basis up almost 38% in this bull market. That's crazy. Industrials equally weighted up 35% and then technology number three at 33%. And when you look back at bull markets throughout history, there's been plenty. You know what you're going to find early in those cycles? Early on in bull markets, the leaders are industrials, technology, and consumer.

Probably because that's where the upward earnings revisions are happening the fastest. That's definitely why. Yeah. No, I'm just saying. I don't know why. Well, why would that be the case consistently over multiple cycles?

There's got to be an explanation that makes sense. I know you don't get paid for the explanation. That sounds good. That's why, because the earnings revisions. So every sector in the S&P on an equal weighted basis is positive on the year. Is that real estate on the bottom? Yeah. Even real estate.

And financials. Yeah. And so this is an equally weighted, go to the capital weighted, just to show the other, the other way. So in this case now, technology is up 45%, but half that's Microsoft and Apple. Industrials actually still at number two. And industrials on a capital weighted basis, their sector index, no component is more than 4% of the sector.

So it's a very diversified group, up 30% in this bull market. Then communications, discretionary, even financials up 18%. So this has just really been a very, you know, when you think about what's a bull market, what's a bear market, like if you think that we've been in a bear market over the last year, you need to have your head examined. Look how perfectly this works out too. If the story for why the market is doing what it's doing is economic reacceleration, The story for why the market is doing what it's doing is economic reacceleration. Look at the stocks that are trailing.

REITs, utilities, staples, and health care. It's bull market behavior, baby. This is like literally what a textbook bull market looks like. In a pre-election year, like just when it's supposed to go up, in the third year of a bull market, like just everything. Don't you besmirch Dietrich. He did great work. Dietrich's my boy. I know.

He did great work on the presidential cycle, the midterm cycle shit. You know who did it on our show? Terranova did it on our show. Yeah, yeah. Last time he was here. He walked us through, you know, the— I mean, it's widely accepted, but, like, why you want to focus on the presidential cycle. And maybe it's lucky again, but all of that stuff came true.

Not to get too sidetracked, but are you- The most bullish time is after the midterm years. And literally the fourth quarter last year, S&Ps are up 7.5%. First quarter up another 7%. Second quarter up 8.5%. Up another 3% this quarter. In bear markets, stocks don't go up every quarter. Yeah.

No, it was actually a flawless thing to be focused on is getting to the midterms and uh might have mattered more than the rate cycle quite frankly it was simultaneous i think okay yeah all right what else you got all right so this is when the market bottom people like well jc the the s&p 500 bottomed in october it's like yeah but by the time the S&P made its bottom in October, there weren't any stocks left still going down. Everything had already bottomed, right? Everything bottomed in Q2 of the year, right?

Yeah, look at this. You really had the worst of the selling last April. Yeah. Okay. That actually, that makes sense to me. That lines up with my own memory of it. You had one more low in June and then things started getting better from there.

And then by the time October kind of retested those lows, there weren't any stocks left making new lows. Right. So the index itself bottomed, but most stocks had bottomed months prior. Yeah, the index was being dragged by the big caps that were still dragging. Right.

That's a great chart. That's a great chart. Yeah, so I just want to remind everybody why we're using that June 16th anchor point. Like we're not just randomly, like there's a reason why we're anchoring to that. All right, keep going. It's just math. That's all.

It's just math. No big deal. And then the catalyst, this was the catalyst all along. So it's not the Trump or the Powell or the earnings or, you know, the sequestration and the taper. Like, it's always something. It was the dollar. Wait, what was sequestration again? I forgot.

The sequester, bro. What is that? I don't know. It was like the taper or something else.ration again? I forgot. The sequester, bro. What is that? I don't know. It was like the taper or something else. I mean, I'm sure I sold on it. The debt ceiling is another one. I honestly forget. I remember the term.

Was that something with Congress? Was that? I don't know. I don't know. I definitely sold everything, but just in case. It's like one of those scary words where it's like, oh, that sounds like a reason to sell. Sequestration. Yeah.

I don't want to. Sell my Microsoft. Yeah, I don't need to get sequestered this Thursday sounds like a reason to sell. Sequestration? Yeah, yeah. I don't want to. Sell my Microsoft. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I don't need to get sequestered this Thursday. I'm going to cash. Sounds too much like castration. Sell everything. Yeah, right.

All right, fine. This is a real thing, I swear. Sequestration refers to automatic spending cuts that occur through the withdrawal of funding for certain but not all government programs. I'm sure I talked about it on TV. It doesn't matter. All right, but what matters,

this dollar reversal was a big deal, it turns out, in hindsight. You know, look at all that huge uptrend in the United States dollar. Wait, so the dollar and stocks have been negatively correlated. Very strongly so. Like, very strongly.

Well, the dollar killed stocks in 2022. Or what stocks were coming off was money going into the dollar as a safe haven. Okay. I don't know. Chicken or the egg, who gives a shit, right? That's how I look at it. So anyway, so at the end of September,

the, uh, Euro bottoms on September the 26th, uh, excuse me, the pound bottom on September the 26th, the Euro bottom two days later on the 28th. Um, and the dollar just came tumbling down and now we're breaking down. So what's the catalyst that takes stocks higher? I think it's the U S dollar rolling over here. It's not the US dollar rolling over that the market wants. I think it's a need. I think if we're going to have a strong back half to the year, it has to come with a weaker dollar,

especially if those leaders are going to be the more value-oriented, maybe more commodity-based stocks, that a weaker dollar may be emerging markets. Like for us to get that, I think you need a weaker dollar. If you have a strong dollar in the back half of the year, I think stocks are going to be a mess. Isn't this all the same thing? We're saying the same thing because the dollar would be strong

if interest rates are arriving because money's going into a safe haven. Don't worry about interest rates. Two different things. Well, no, they're correlated. A few of the companies that reported- They are when they want to be. A few of the companies that reported this week,

I think including Meta, mentioned Forex as a positive, as a tailwind versus a headwind, which it was last year. It's just that the dollar's the only safe haven. Right. So that's where the bond market is no longer that. The bond market is not a safe haven.

It was worse in stocks last year. When companies like beat their earnings by 16 cents, like large multinational companies that are doing like half their revenue overseas, and then they still, like last year, there were a lot of misses because – or guide downs or whatever. And one of the more frequently cited things besides inflation and labor costs was currency. And then that reverses itself and it almost acts as a double benefit. The stock is going up because the dollar is going down.

And then the company comes out and beats their numbers because they got that tailwind from the exchange rate. So it's actually, it's like a double bonus. So what if it's not, what if it's like this though? What if this is just a failed breakdown and now we squeeze? Well, dollar's ripping today. In this environment, if the dollar index is above 101.5, I think that puts pressure on stocks. I think the stocks in general are probably going to have a tough time if the dollar index is above that 101.5.

Yeah, my man. It puts it back above support. 101.80. Yeah. All right. Now, let's see it stick. Let's see it stick the landing. And if it does, stocks are probably not doing well.

But if you don't think interest rates, if you don't think interest rate differentials between the US and euro, for example, are responsible for the dollar having a false breakdown or whatever, then what do you think – then what is it? Demand for safe haven assets? Yes. Isn't the Euro a safe haven asset also? Isn't the yen? Quite the opposite. The yen used to be. Not anymore.

Not anymore. Think about what happened last year. The yen was making new 20-year lows. The stocks are getting hammered. Well, fine. Okay. All right. That's what happened last year. The yen was making new 20-year lows. The stocks are getting hammered. Well, fine. Okay. All right. That's what I'm saying.

So then, okay. So demand for something safe still fuels the dollar more so than an interest rate differential. The only other thing that I've noticed, like in terms of safe havens, like obviously you see it in credit spreads, but consumer stables and low volatility stocks on a relative basis have also served that. stables and low volatility stocks on a relative basis have also served that. So you'll see low volatility and consumer stables outperform when stocks are under pressure in the same way that you'll see the dollar doing well when stocks are under pressure. And then you'll see treasury bonds outperforming junk bonds in that environment too. Like those are, that's what is still a safe haven. It wasn't the yen. It wasn't bonds on an absolute basis. So you can't trust classic, classic, classic risk. Do we have a Staples discretionary chart coming up later?

We don't, but discretionaries have been doing their thing. But if you start to see Staples outperforming discretionaries, which we, maybe you started to see that this week, but if you started to see that, that's very similar to me. That should come with dollar strength and stocks in general under pressure. If you want to go to the next chart,

just to kind of put things in perspective, this was the high. Remember those magazine covers? Yeah. Can't stop, won't stop on the dollar. Barron's with the muscle man, George Washington. We were laughing at that in real time. We were laughing at that in real time. Yeah.

Not always, but sometimes it's pretty clear. Go to the next chart just so you can see the last time that it did this. The Economist did the same thing. And look how well stocks did in 2017. We were just talking about that. One of the least volatile years ever. It's safe to say anytime a magazine has George Washington's shirt off and his pecs out, like it's probably not going to last much longer. It's the old GW Reuter indicator. I believe Ben Graham used to write about that.

What? And remember FTX literally created a way to buy the dollar through DeFi a week after the dollar had already peaked. Yeah. When FTX jumped in, that might have been a nice indicator. That was literally the top. So just kind of remind everybody to put things in perspective. So look at Latin America making new 52-week highs. Brazil, new year-to-date highs. So you're seeing rotation into those emerging markets.

EWZ is MSCI Brazil. There's like a lot of banks and commodities in this thing still. Dude, the US is 4% energy in the S&P 500. And Brazil, EWZ is 17%. Materials is like 20-something percent. Telecom is big in here. And financials, big weighting in financials too. Right, okay.

Yeah, no tech, zero tech. Chinese internet also. Shout out to K-Web. Shout out to K-Web. So this is the IPO low. So this goes back 10 years for you youngsters out there. I remember the IPO well when, or not the IPO, whenever they issued. The launch of the fund.

Yeah, yeah. The listing. The listing. So 26 is that low. So if we're above 26, I think you can know Chinese internet all day. Take a look at the components. Those are interesting. And there's already stuff in emerging markets working.

Nicole, if you want to go to India, making new all-time highs. Can we talk about this? Yeah. All right. Let's pause on this. Michael and I talked about this the other day. This is the nifty 50, which is the 50 biggest stocks in India, give or take. Okay.

But then if you look at the other India-related ETFs, which we did, there's one that's like focused on consumers. There's like one that is a bigger selection of stocks and not as concentrated. But they all look the same. This is like I feel like has the potential to become a really big trade. I mean has already been for a decade. Do you know how small these ETFs are? There's like no money in them. This is not something that American investors are focused on.

You know, because there's something, this is something that Mark Dow in California talks about a lot, which is the correlation among asset managers where they'll bucket emerging markets together in one bucket, even though India and Brazil couldn't be more different in terms of their composition of their economy. Because they don't know better. They know that they're developing economies and it's like close enough.

So you'll get that correlation. But look at India. Look at Bank Nifty. I was told that we were in a banking crisis and I see the Nifty Bank Index. Nicole, you want to go to the Nifty Bank Index? Making new all-time highs. Look at this shit. All right.

All right. So these banks, nobody's ever heard of these in the United States, but these are very big banks. These banks are not lending to Silicon Valley startups. Yeah, but they're regional banks in Mumbai. So why don't you go to the next chart? So here's HDFC Bank. That's a great looking chart. Yeah.

Nice. $172 billion regional bank. Michael's a huge Indian food guy also. I don't know if you know that. Love Indian food. He likes the chicken. I had, shut up, asshole. He likes the chicken. I had... Shut up, asshole.

I like the chicken. I'm trying to eat the chicken. No, no. Shout out to our Indian viewers. We have lots of Indian viewers. I love Indian food. No, I said, what's your favorite Indian dish?

And he goes, the chicken. That was really fun. What's your favorite Indian dessert? I found you funny. How much time have you spent in India? You've spent quite a bit. Yeah, yeah.

I've been there three, four times. You have a big fan base there too. It's been fun. I've never had Indian dessert. Dude, rasmalai, it's like, rasmalai is like if cheesecake met tres leches in India. What do you mean? It's like a cheesecake.

I don't know what the leches are, but I like cheesecake. You don't know tres leches? You know tres leches. Yeah, you guys. It's like a mil I don't know what the leches are but I like cheesecake you don't know tres leches you know tres leches yeah you guys it's like a milky cake yeah and then like but it's more like cheesecakey

but in India did you bring did you bring a chart of this or so I show up in India and I'm tweeting about how much I love Rasmalai I had

I showed up at a conference and like five or six different people brought me Rasmalai from like their town it's like New Yorkers and pizza it's like oh I got the best pie that's like five or six different people brought me to Asmalai from like their town. It's like New Yorkers and pizza. It's like, oh, I got the best pie. That's like their thing. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Okay. All right. Very cool. Yeah. These stocks are going up though. Above 71. I like it long. I think it's got 35, 40% upside.

This is ticker HDB. This is HDFC Bank. Yep. It's a huge company. $170 billion. Yeah. It's like the JP Morgan of India, would you say? Ish?

Actually, yes. Okay. All right. That is, I couldn't have said it better. dollars yeah it's like the jp morgan of india would you say ish actually yes okay all right that is i couldn't have said it better when these things break these things tend to trend i've i've found emerging market the next one next one looks even better icici bank once they go they like can go for a while is my point okay look monster ibn great looking yeah yeah you would buy if this was an american if this an American stock, almost anybody that sees this would say, I'm getting long right here. Well, funny you should say that because I actually got an American stock that looks just like it. If you want to go to the next one, Nicole. And that's a CBOE.

Oh, look at that. This is a fat pitch. Pitch, P-I-T-C-H. So CBOE is basically trading futures options. Like that's the business. It's an exchange. Are you asking me? No, I'm telling you.

Oh, yeah, yeah. It's an exchange. That's the business. I believe you. Okay. It's only a $15 billion market cap. I know. It's super small, right?

Yeah. I would have thought it would be bigger, right? CME must be bigger. Yeah. I feel like CME is bigger. Okay. This looks outstanding. I mean, you want to talk about a big...

I was just talking to Louise Yamada. I love Louise Yamada. She's the best, dude. Have you had her on the show? No. What's the matter with you guys? I don't know. She lives right there.

She's on Park Avenue and like 90th Street. Barry's had her on. Dude, you guys have to have Louise Yamada on. We would have a very different conversation than Barry had with her. You guys will have a way better conversation. I remember that. Barry did a good job. Barry's a good interviewer.

We bust his balls, but he's good. He's good. All right, all right. Barry's very fascinated. The guests tend to fascinate him, and you know that because he tells them it's fascinating like seven, eight times a shot. But it's nice. All right, let's go. Big base.

If we're above, hold on, above a 140, that's the trade. If we're making new all-time highs, you've got to own it. Target up near 180. And then you can see financials here. This is the XLF. This is the next one. So this is the, the,

the, remember we talked about it on this show that we got to stick the 07 highs, the highs before the great financial crisis. If we're above that. Mike doesn't believe in this. Okay, fine.

Well, if you did, you'd own financials right now. Mike doesn't think that there's market memory in prices from 2007. I won't, I don't, and I won't have it. Actually, JCS on my financials right now. Mike doesn't think that there's market memory in prices from 2007. I won't. I don't and I won't have it. Actually, JCS,

I'm on financials today. Both of them. All right, good for you. Thank you. Listen, I- So he's already fading you. You didn't get here yet. He started fading you.

Everything's all time horizons, right? I walk into Mike's office. He's got a one minute S&P candle chart. Stop it. What is that? Remember? You remember that.

Back in the day, I did. I really did. I'm like, bro, what are you doing? One minute candles is amazing. What are you doing?? You remember that. Back in the day, I did. I really did. I'm like, bro, what are you doing? One minute candles is amazing. What are you doing? You're not even a day trader. Like, why are you looking at one minute candles? You got to know.

You got to know what's up. No, you don't. Dude, back in the day, I used to screenshot Yahoo Finance charts and text them to you and be like, buy or sell. You'd be like, dude, I can't look at this and tell you anything. It'd be like a purple line chart. That's right. Right. So anyway. You step over your line show. That's right. Right.

So anyway. You step over your chart game. Oh, yeah. I just, I send it to Sean now. Say, Sean, make this chart for me. All right. Financials. All right.

What else? What happens here? What happens? Can I? What happens if it wasn't a crisis after all and just a buying opportunity? Financial. This is, all right. This is the XLF priced in XLK,

financials versus technology. Yeah, what if we get back above those 2020 lows? So this is a scenario where like Apple, Microsoft, take a breather, JP Morgan, Citi, Wells Fargo, keep going. Berkshire. Berkshire. Jason, here's a question.

So I look at this chart and I say, yeah, maybe. Like, do you have conviction in this or is this like a, just like a fun chart? Well, I own one bank stock. Okay. Right? And I would probably own more if we're above that.

Yeah. But this looks like more like a toss up. Like this is not a, this is not a slam dunk. I mean, it's a nice chart. Well, at the end of the day, nothing I bring here is a slam dunk.

No, I know, I know. We're just thinking about what the world is like. But some probabilistically, some look better than others. You wouldn't, you wouldn't trade a ratio chart though anyway.

I personally don't have to do that. Like if I had like a delta neutral mandate of some kind, then maybe. But like I could just YOLO whatever. I could do anything I want, right? Right. But I'm saying you're not looking at something like this and being like, okay, I'm getting short technology and low in the banks. This is just giving you context for what might be happening.

I own no technology stocks and I own one bank stock. So indirectly, I'm getting short technology and low in the banks. This is just giving you context for what might be happening. Well, I'll tell you what. I own no technology stocks, and I own one bank stock. So, indirectly, I do have this ratio on. If I am not long technology, I'm almost short, right? Right. And I don't own any technology stocks. So, I kind of indirectly do have this ratio on. Bro, if you're 10% technology, you're basically short. Right.

Given what the market cap weighting is. That's right. Right. So, kind of. Yeah. All right. Let's go. European banks, new for the two- waiting. That's right. So kind of. Yeah. All right. Let's go. European banks, new 52-week highs.

Bro, what crisis? Are you kidding me? European banks, new 52-week highs. Come on. They're saying Greece is having the best economic year it's ever had. Greece is making new five-year highs. You see that G-R-E-K ETF? Are you kidding me? It's a tourism economy.

Oh my God. This G-R-E-K, what in the world? That thing looks like ETF? Are you kidding me? It's a tourism economy. Oh, my God. This GREK, what in the world? That thing looks like a social media stock from 10 years ago. So last night, I took a flight home from the Bahamas, and it was like half empty. I'm like, wow. Uh-oh. Is this a little anecdata?

Changing character. Changing character. So it's like coming into the hurricane season in the Bahamas. So maybe that's why. When we landed at JFK at 10 o'clock at night, it looked like Times Square. I was like, I said to Rob, I was like, okay, I guess something's fine. I guess it was a Bahamas story. It looked like Times Square at 10 o'clock at night. My daughter was in Greece for the summer.

We picked her up at Newark Airport yesterday. And the whole plane is teenagers. It's just like, like all these tours and schools and whoever sent kids to Greece, they all arrived on the same flight from Athens. They were in like Mykonos and then Athens. And like, I'm like,

how I've never been to Greece. I'm like, how was it? Was it amazing? And she's like, oh God, dad, can I just have like a minute?

I just got off the plane. I have sun poisoning. My sinuses are flaring up. Like, I don't feel well. I'm like, okay, honey, I just hope you had – like a moron I am. Like, I just hope you had fun. She's like, fine, it was fine, okay? Good to see you.

You know, so anyway. Kenny Glick is in Greece right now. Is he? I just spoke to him. He was in Crete, and now he just got to Athens. Yeah. Legend. I've never been. Legend. Legend. Legend. All is in Greece right now. Is he? I just spoke to him. He was in Crete. Now he just got to Athens. Yeah. I've never been. Legend.

Legend. Legend. All right. Keep it moving. New with the two-week highs, European banks. So when you look at the components. Sorry, we're not doing this one. Next. Hold on.

What is your beef? What a dick. What a dick. What is the problem with a $70 billion Swiss insurer that's making new all-time highs? Is this beneath your line? It's below my line. Is it below your line? It's below my line. Is it below your line? Is it beneath you?

No, I'm looking out for the audience. Nobody cares about Zervi. All right. Clearly, people do because it's worth $70 billion, American dollars, and it's making new all-time highs or close to it. Anyway, this is one of the- What industry? Is this in money laundering?

I hope so. If that's what they need to do, I don't really care. It's not my problem. Okay. So this is the second largest component of the European Financials Index. Is it really? Yeah. Did you know that?

Nope. Yeah, because people care. You might not care. This is like bigger than UBS? Actually, funny you should ask. Next. By two billion. Wow.

So you see the difference? Look, this is what people don't give a f*** about, Batnick. And they show the other one. This is the one that they do care about. Do you see what happens? Do you see what happens, Larry? Can you show those? No, no, no.

There you go. This is what they care about. They don't care about the UBS. Can you go back to the UBS? UBS is going to spend the next two years digesting this Credit Suisse acquisition. That stock's going nowhere. I think we break out soon, actually. Look at this. How many times are we going to spend the next two years digesting this Credit Suisse acquisition. That stock's going nowhere. I think we break out soon, actually. Look at this.

How many times are we going to test this level? Nah. Another. All right. Well, I guess we'll see. One more. All right. Next.

So this is the one I own. I've been in the HSBC. You know, when they were still lying to you about banking crises, this was already making new 52-week highs. So it was one of those like, how is this making new 52-week highs? And then I got the people on magazines and television telling me that it's a banking crisis. JC, credit to you. You were all over this. You were too. You were the one who brought it up.

Oh, hell yeah. Me too? Okay. There we go. Why don't you guys hug each other or something? What'd you do about it though? No, I do remember looking at credit suites and being like, I thought these stocks were going to zero. They weren't. They're going up. Yeah. Credit suites did. Yeah. HSBC looks good. New 52-week highs. That's true They're going up. Yeah, Credit Suisse did. HSBC looks good. New 52-week highs.

That's true. I should have mentioned that. Credit Suisse did. Yeah, new 52-week highs. So anyway, this is the one I own. I still like it. If we're above all those former highs, kind of like CBOE, right?

If we're above that, if we're breaking out, why not own it? So it's working. You want to keep going there. And then after the best start to the NASDAQ ever, best first six months in the history of the NASDAQ, sell-side analysts respond with the most bearish second half outlook of all time.

Dude, this is the third week in a row this chart has come up on the show. It's such a good chart. It's a great chart. It's Wall Street strategists stick to cautious equity view. Their S&P 500 target points to most bearish second half outlook on record. Like ever, back to 1999, they have never had this low of an outlook for the they'd rather lose money and lose money for their huge clients than to admit that they're wrong because they're you know cozy little lifestyle and you know job is more important we should say

it's possible they'll be right it's it's july 27th testified on congress that there's aliens here so yeah no no we saw oil trading below zero. Anything's possible. By year end, it's possible. Yeah, I doubt it. Okay. There was a great headline from Bloomberg this week from John Authors and Isabella. After a misjudged first half, strategists face a short squeeze.

And I never really heard it put that way. But all the revisions are going – like they showed their January price target and their July price target. And they're all – not all. Most of them are higher. Do we have this chart, please? So for example, Bank of America as of January was $4,000. Now it's $4,300. But even still, just eyeballing these, the only one who's meaningfully above where we are right now is Funstrat.

Everybody else is below where we are right now. The key indicator here is the earnings revisions. And you aggregate all the earnings revisions and you see such a beautiful lagging indicator over price. So you see price of the S&P 500 and then the earnings revisions drag. And then the exact opposite. You see prices start falling

and then earnings revisions keep getting downgraded. Like in aggregate, you really see that. It's like, remember the Sonic the Hedgehog and then it would get chased around by that little dog thing, remember? you really see that. It's like, remember Sonic the Hedgehog and then it would get chased around by that little dog thing, remember? It's like that. Dude, that's such a great point that you made because we know for a fact

that price moves ahead of earnings. It anticipates it. And price is really discounting what tends to happen, not always, but most of the time the market gets it right. Yeah. Tom Lee was explaining in that clip. We played how most strategists are becoming bearish because they're talking to their

buy side clients. They're talking to the asset managers who are maybe chasing. Throw the next chart. You'll see. This is what, this is what their clients are doing to your point, Josh. Let's say, okay, this is their clients. Right. Overweight cash. Yeah, it's unbelievable. Overweight healthcare, EM equities. And underweight equities. Alternatives, which is another way to be bearish. Staples. Jesse, we were just talking about this.

And way underweight equities. There's a divergence between individual investors and institutional investors. Individual investors are bullish as they should be. Market's going up. What do you make of this divergence? Well, they're more volatile. They react sooner, the individuals. There's more churn. These take a long time to position.

These are much bigger institutions. So you tend to see more whippy action out of like an AAII poll or something like that. You know what else though? Also, remember, you need bulls to buy stocks in bull markets to have bull markets. You know what else is interesting? Like people, if this were like two years ago, people would be like, yeah, of course they're bullish. What else are they going to do with their money? There is an alternative now. And we're still in a rampaging bull market. Like you could, what else are they going to do with their money? How about 6% in, in, in T-bills?

Right. But just think about that when it became such a no brainer to get 6% in T-bills ended up being the worst decision you could have made, right? Yeah, it just- Think about it. When it was such a no-brainer, you could have done literally anything else and made so much money. You just picture the mindset,

somebody would be like, why would I take risk when I could just earn, I guess in January it was 4%. Why would I take risk when I could just earn 4% risk-free in T-bills? And that's not wrong, but oh, this is why. Because you missed a 45% move in tech. This is why you would take risk.

That's right. It's a very good point. Okay, next. And then JP Morgan's poll, same thing, right? Are you more likely to increase or decrease equity exposure over the coming days, weeks? 17% are planning to increase equity exposure. Which is as low as it's been in the last year.

Which is never, okay. So, you know, needless to say, there's a lot of dry powder, as they say, to add to equity. So I think that it's not the – contrary to popular belief, it's not earnings that drive prices. It's not the economy. No, it is. It's positioning. Oh, well, it depends on the time frame. It's positioning that drives prices.

In the short term, yes. But do these people buy the dip or do they look at a dip and say, you see, we were right? I don't know the answer. They got to chase it higher. I agree with Jason. Unless there's a meaningful pullback. I'm not saying like 5%.

Unless there's like a mean, they're going to have to chase. If the market is up 14% at the end of October, tough shit, buy. I mean, you can have a stealth correction underneath the surface in the back half of the year where a lot of stocks correct. The indexes might trade sideways or churn, and you have huge winners underneath the surface.

That could very well be what we have. Be very normal. Very normal. Yeah. Okay, next. Let's make some money. So this is, you know, if small caps are ever going to start to outperform, this would be a perfectly logical place for them to do so.

It's where it started in 2020. This is exactly where the ratio between small caps and large caps bottomed out. Looks a little bit like XLK, XLF. But to me, this is a little bit cleaner, a little bit more convincing. All right. A little bit. Okay. A lot of industrials, a lot of banks in the small cap index.

Materials, energy, healthcare. Oh, yeah. All right. And then zoom out on small caps. Does that look like a bad chart to you? All right. So you like this pullback to- Stair step higher.

No, Jason, credit to you. Sometimes you just got to zoom out. Right? Like, I am guilty- This is 25 years. I'm guilty of being a daily chart guy, but sometimes- I mean, this just tells a much different story. Whenever in doubt, zoom out.

One of the beauty of technical analysis is our ability to look at markets using multiple timeframes and to start with longer-term perspective and work our way down. This consolidation in small caps dates back to 2017? I wouldn't put it that way. What do you mean? The former resistance? No, it's been consolidated for a couple of months. I guess that's what I'm trying to say. It's been above. It's been lower. But it looks like since 17, it's been consolidated for a couple of months. I guess that's what I'm trying to say. It's been above.

It's been lower. But it looks like since 17, it's like a wash. Okay. Yeah, former resistance turned into support. Pretty normal. Yep. Yep. Industrials, all-time highs.

No sector – excuse me. No stock in this sector index is more than 4% of the index. Is that right? So it's broad. Okay. Super broad. Yeah, industrials captures so many areas of the index. Is that right? So it's broad. Okay. Super broad. Yeah, industrials captures so many areas of the economy. Do you have any favorites?

Yeah, next chart. I like Caterpillar too. This is such an easy one to understand and pull the trigger on. Well, maybe now, but we were buying it at 170 because we were essentially reverse engineering the bull market and essentially saying, if this is a bull market,

that means that we have to get rotation into industrials. That means Caterpillar can't be breaking below the 2018 highs. That would not be a bull market. This would be the time to buy if it is a bull market. And sure enough, it's worked out really well. So I think this gets up to 320, 340. Every industrial I can think of is at an all-time high or 50-tweak high at least.

Like all the big ones in my head that I run through. Honeywell. Honeywell just had a nasty day today. Yeah, maybe today. But I'm just saying like generally speaking. How about Boeing? Boeing had a beautiful base. Oh, yeah.

Yep. Aerospace and defense in general. And then here's a really interesting one. SoftBank just bought half a billy worth of this one. It's a $10 billion This is a specialty industrial machinery company. Symbiotic. SYM is the ticker. Yeah, but this doesn't mean

anything. Specialty industrial machinery, really what it is, it's like a software. It's like a you know, like they it's technically industrials, but it's like in the technology robotics of industrial warehousing or something like that. I'm not going to pretend to know.

It's automation and warehouses. Half a billy from SoftBank, though. Raise the roof. All right. What else we got? So hold on. So hold on. So if we're above 41, which right now we're around those levels.

Below 40, it's going to be messy. But above 41, really interesting. And this is a SPAC that doesn't suck. Yeah. There aren't a lot of those. Okay. Very interesting. Yeah. So then this is what SPAC that doesn't suck. Yeah, there aren't a lot of those. OK, very interesting. Yeah.

So then this is what I'm looking at. So this is one of the things I was talking about over lunch today. You know, when you look at the fund manager survey, commodities have just been left for dead, right? Investors, fund managers are the most bearish commodities since crude oil was trading below zero several years back. And when you look at a ratio of inflation-prot protected treasuries relative to nominal, so in other words, what the bond market is pricing in for inflation, just overlay crude oil over that.

They look exactly the same. This is tips priced in nominal treasuries. What is IEF? Seven to 10 year? Yeah. Okay. And you're juxtaposing that with crude oil futures and they look like perfectly aligned, these two charts. Yeah. I think investors are bleeding commodities for dead. I think people think that inflation is not a problem anymore. And you were starting to see this tick up a little bit. I think it's worth paying attention to. It's at 80, and the Biden administration has already said they plan to start refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. They haven't put a barrel back into it.

It's at a 40-year low. And where is this? Is this in the Bronx? Keep it in the Bronx. That's right. It's right below Yankee Stadium. No, but I mean, for me, like the big surprise would be an oil breakout

in the second half of the year that like not a lot of people are even thinking about. Right. That would be, those stocks have sucked all year. Yep. Energy stocks. That would be a really interesting outcome for the second half. And think about the, there's only 4% of the S&P 500 is energy.

0% of the NASDAQ 100 is energy. Yeah. So if they're leaders, they're not going to make a dent in the overall indexes. It would be a value comeback. It would be, it's a lot of small cap energy stocks. Yeah. It would, right. It would, it would check a lot of small cap energy stocks. It would, right. It would, it would check a lot of boxes, uh, for, for a reversal. Yep. Okay. Sure. So here's oil.

So look at those 2018 highs that former resistance turned into support as clean as it gets. If we're above the mid seventies in oil, I think you got to own it. I think you got to be long energy. If, if oil is above 75, not mention, oil got cut in half and energy stocks have hung in there really well. That's right. That's right. Because they didn't believe

it was permanent. Where do you think crude can get back to? I mean, I think definitely the 22 highs. 130 and head up to 250 potentially.

But do you need like Do you need worth? 250? Yeah. Why not? I mean, I don't know why. Why not? I mean, I don't know why. Why not?

Okay. If crude gets anywhere near that, you're going to see these stocks double all of them. You're going to see them double in size in the index, too. First of all, they'll double a crude at 100. Things are not doing so well over here if crude is at 250. Maybe. You got an oil stock for us?

I'm not necessarily saying that crude oil is going to get to 250, but as investors, if we're not thinking that that's on the table, I think it's being irresponsible. Again, I don't know what oil is going to be. Oil can go to zero. I have no idea. But to just take 250 off the table,

I think it's foolish. I think we need to think that that's on the table. What was the 08 high? Was it 180? 150, 148, something like that? Yeah. Okay. Yeah.

All right. So energy hasn't even broken out yet. This is the energy sector index still stuck below the 08 highs. So we haven't even broken out yet. So if we're talking about like, you know, this actually breaking out and you got the XLE and the 200s, where do you think oil is? So look at some stocks. I like the, I'm long Chevron.

There it is. So Chevron. I'm long against 150. Yeah. Clean. Clean. It's clean. Below 150, then forget it. But above 150,. There it is. So Chevron. I'm long against 150. Yeah. Clean. It's clean. Below 150, then forget it. But above 150, I like it long.

Do you do it on a weekly closing basis or immediately? Well, I'm already in it. That's a good question. When you say below 150, you don't want to be in it. But can it go down below 150 for 10 minutes? Everybody's different, right? So if you're a day trainer. No, you though.

Yeah, me personally. Yeah, I mean, listen, I'm in the calls. Like I own options. So I already have risk management built in on the common side. Yeah, 150. I think a weekly close makes sense. A daily close can make sense.

It depends on who you are. Everybody's different. There's no like right or wrong way to do it. We all have different objectives, time horizons, risk parameters. Like, are you trying to make money? Like, oh, JC, what do you think of Apple? It's like in the next 10 minutes, in the next week, a year.

If it was 143 on a Wednesday, would you probably close it out? If it was 143 on a Wednesday, I would not be in it at that point. Yeah, yeah, no way. Zero chance. Go back to the other one because I want to show the ratio. When it falls to 143, that's when I'm like, yeah, but there's a dividend. That's when I start reading the 8K. All right.

Wait, who else owns this thing? What? Yeah, yeah. No, Vanguard's here. That's when I'm on. Buffett owns it? Oh, how bad could it be? That's when I'm on whale wisdom,

and I'm looking to see are there other smart hedge fund managers. Vanguard, BlackRock, and State Street own it? Wait, but I don't even know a lot of these hedge fund managers, so I'm like, oh State Street own it? Wait, but I don't even know a lot of these hedge fund managers. So I'm like, oh, Feldman, probably Jewish.

I don't know. He's long. Like that's, I mean, this is not risk management. I'm just joking, by the way. But people really do live that way. No, I know. We know them.

We know them in real life. We've been there. We've been there. Hello. We've been there, so we know them. Think it's got a shot? Yeah, that is a shot.

What? What are you laughing at? Wait, what are we looking at for the audience? So this is energy relative to tech. In the same way that we looked at financials relative to tech, how about energy relative to tech? I like this better. The only thing people would quibble with is they would say,

what's this gray line? You're just putting it there because that's where it is. Yeah. No, I mean, that's what people would say. Yeah. Yeah. And then you would say.

You could say whatever you want. It doesn't matter to me. I put it there. No, but if people wanted an explanation, why is the gray line that you were saying is support? Why'd you draw it there?

Well, it was support in 22 and it was support this year. And if we break, I mean, listen, it's a range. It's not like an exact ruler. So it's like, is that perfectly drawn? Probably not. And look how thick you've drawn it. I should have listen, it's a range. It's not like an exact ruler. Is that perfectly drawn? Probably not. And look how thick you've drawn it.

I should have drawn it thicker, actually. You want to think of it like a mattress. Should be the whole chart. It's a lot of support between the bottom and the top. Can it get going? So anyway, something to think about. Flip a couple of charts there. We saw Chevron already. What about... This is uranium. Throw this there. We saw Chevron already. What about-

What is this? This is uranium. Throw this out. We're not doing this. Listen, if you have enough Canadian uranium exposure in your portfolio, then that's for you. But for those who do not- I wish you could show a 50-year chart of this. It's always a rug pull.

I'm just saying, if it's above 25, I like it long. Never, ever build another uranium-powered electricity plant in this country. Dude, he's just saying. I know. I don't care. Instant fail. All right. It's like showing me cannabis stocks.

Okay, hold on. But go back real quick because I want to be clear. You want me to lose money. I want to be clear. If it's above 25, I don't care what Josh just said. Above 25, everyone involved in this is smoking crack. Okay. If it's below 25, you're smoking crack.

Above 25, I think you're smoking crack if you're not long. Got it. Okay. More for you then. More for you then. I don't want any. What about speaking of smoking crack? Bitcoin, Ethereum.

That's enough. There's nothing to say about this. They've been ripping all year. Can you think of a better performing asset in 2023? They've been ripping because they went down by two-thirds. And tech stocks didn't? I will get interested again the next time there's movement on the ETF. And until then, I have no interest at all.

Honestly. Well, fortunately, I don't care what you're interested in. I know. I know. I'm saying me personally, if there's movement on the ETF front, I pay attention. Until then, I can't. The price of Bitcoin ETH has been pretty boring for the last couple of weeks. Sorry, you're not.

It just broke down, actually. Why don't we take a look at that? A funny thing just happened. So just to give you some perspective. That's a breakdown? Settle down. You said it. You said it. Relax your soul for two seconds and let me set the stage. Coming in your. Okay. You said it. Relax your soul for two seconds and let me set the stage. Coming in your.

Okay. Coming in your. Look at the support in 21, in the summer of 21, early 21, then we got the breakdown last year. Yes? Yes. We came all the way back there this spring and failed. Yes? Yes.

We just came back here these boring weeks that Bannick is talking about and we failed again. Yes? Yes. Okay. Now zoom in, Nicole. No, I don't. No, I reject that premise. Zoom in.

Do you have one-minute candles of this? No. These are four-hour candles. No, no, no. I'm sorry. No, down. Four-hour candles. Down.

Down. There it is. Too boring for you? Breakdown? Breaking down to new 30-day lows? Is that boring for you? It's not a breakdown. I feel like this could reverse in an hour on a Saturday afternoon.

Ah, funny you should ask. Next chart. He held the lows. Oh. All right. Next. I don't understand what your problem is

with these charts. No problem with the charts. It's the asset class. I wish I had a gong. I would gong these charts. First of all, you trade way shittier. Oh, for sure.

Bitcoin's like 400 billion. Ethereum's like 200 billion. You trade like, I don't even want to know what you're putting on. If you believe those market cap figures. You think it's like a lie? The guy they just arrested, Mashinsky, he said like the whole thing's leveraged. Nobody actually owns any of this shit. Okay.

Well, in that case. Oh, the criminal said it. Must be true. Yeah, it must be true. All right. So do we have to give the profits back or no? No. Oh, okay.

No, the profits you get to keep. All right. Wow. Look at this piece of shit. Fortunately, that's all I'm interested in. Marathon Digital. This is a crypto miner. Yeah.

This piece of shit's only up 800% this year. It's true. And if crude goes to 250, this miner will rip. Yeah. Yeah. I'm taking out a mortgage in my house to buy out ofof-the-money options on this one. If it breaks out above 20, I'm back in. This was one of the best trades I put on in my entire life

as a matter of fact. Where did you get you got loan this year? We bought the 14 calls, January 14 calls when it was like a 12 and it got six points in the money. So, yeah. Wow. Alright. Off she goes. So we want to go to the next one. So Coinbase, same thing. This thing was a monster trade and I was going at Straza over this, and I think it was like 40.

Josh, I think it's going to zero. No, I think I said I dare you to buy it, and I hope he did. No, I think he sold it. No, he buys this a lot. He buys and sells it. Yes, yes, yes. All right. They were on the plane on the way to Singapore, and he's like YOLOing like Riot out of the money calls.

God damn it. Playing it like Buffett. So Coinbase, though, is up substantially this year. It's only quadruple. No big deal. So if it – but look, hold on. Mission accomplished. Go back real quick.

Mission accomplished, right? We're back to last year's highs. So now it's got to digest. So below 120, it's a mess. If we can ultimately resolve higher above 120, I think you buy it again. And this is the micro strategies. I think Josh's exact quote was,

go to the next chart, Nicole. Josh's exact quote was one of the best quotes of all time. I won't buy this stock if you delivered the shares in a Bentley was his exact word. And I still won't. Stand by that. I stand by that. I thought that was a great quote.

When did he say that? He said that in January. He said that at 13 133 if you want to go to the next chart so this is now it's pushing 500 and again like like coinbase we're gonna edit all this out right no but that was funny but it was sentiment like i wouldn't buy this stock if you delivered the shares in a that's a buy in fairness to me i'm not shorting it. I just don't care. No, fine. But my point, okay. So the reason that we liked it then was because that's what I said in the bear market is that something you would say? He's like, yup, I would do it. So hold on. So in the bear market that we had in tech, the short sellers, instead of covering their shorts, they added to short positions. They're responsible. They came into the year the most short they were anything.

MicroStrategy is one of those examples. Carvana, you think the fundamentals of Carvana have changed things up 1300% because of the positioning, not because of the earnings. I'm with you there. You did not have the same degree of turnaround in the businesses that we're talking about as you just had in how offsides people were

and how expensive it's been for them to reverse themselves. So now let's think about what happened. Bitcoin had a pretty decent move, nothing special. This thing's a 400% micro strategy. So this thing has far outperformed Bitcoin and Mara and riot. So like from, you know, we might not have an ETF to buy Bitcoin, but we do, we have vehicles and whether it's an ETF orf or a stock we have vehicles and isn't that all that matters it's true if you wanted to be bullish on bitcoin this was a really good way to do any of those by the way this is just one of them yeah yeah any of those so we start breaking out above 500 i think you got a new trade i think bitcoin you got to be above 31 000 for me to be interested

from the long side otherwise i'm not touching it so i So I'm with you, Josh. So I needed to see a breakout. And then this is, well, this is probably what I is my biggest question. I don't know. I can't figure out how the 10 year is going to resolve. The 10 it's weird. Like the belly of the curve, like everything shorter than 10 years is 4% plus yields and everything longer than 10 years is for now, like you got steepening in the long end of the curve. So it's weird. The 10 got steepening in the long end of the curve. So it's weird. The 10 year, the intermediate term treasury is where the biggest question mark is.

So I don't know how it resolves either, but that is the question. What do you have? You've got growth stocks, technology stocks, all of these things ripping. What is that pointing to? Lower yields, right? Yeah.

But at the same time, now you have crude oil potentially bottoming tips. You've got some of the commodities starting to bottom. What is that pointing to? Higher yields. Maybe it just grinds around here. Maybe this is just what the 10-year rate is going to be for a while. Honestly, I could not agree more with you.

That is where my head— Because that's a tug-of-war. And you don't need a winner. And the market loves that. Yeah, I agree. I'm with you on that. Like the pain trade for bonds. Sideways?

Is sideways. I think. And clearly the market loves that, right? So go to the next one. You can see this is the alternative. This is where it breaks out. Go to the next one. See?

No, no, go back to the red. Go to the red. There you go. See? So that's, so is this a failed breakdown? It's like Black 90. Wedding singers? No, wedding crashers. There you go. See, so that's, so is this a failed breakdown? It's like black 90. Wedding singers? No, wedding crashers.

Okay, next. So then, so this is really interesting because in gold, you have the, in gold, you have the price of gold. And then in black, you have gold relative to S&Ps. So in the 2000s, you've had gold doing really well and also outperforming stocks. And then while gold has done nothing over the last decade, look how it's done relative to stocks, right? So just think about the opportunity cost

that you've had to endure not being long stocks because you chose rocks instead. Good chart. Yeah. Never rocks, always stocks. Well, there's a time. For the long term. For the long term.

But there was 10, 12 years that you wanted to be in the rocks. True. Right? True. So here, go to the next one. I still didn't. So these are the rocks on an absolute basis. They look good.

Are we going to get this breakout? I can't believe it's not 2,500 an ounce. I can't believe it. I'm not a gold buyer. I was going to say, you're not even a gold buyer. I can't believe you bought GDX. Yeah, I bought it and lost money on it. What's the matter with you?

It's a piece of shit. Like every other gold miner. All right, tell me how you really feel. I really feel like it's a piece of shit. Well, look at this one. This one's less of a piece of shit. And that's supposed to be the blue chip. Look at this one. This is more of like a turd, maybe. Less of a whole piece.

I hate all these stocks. I hate this whole mentality. So this is Alamos Gold. This is one of the blue chips in this space. Alamos. What? Alright. Listen, if we're above ten and a half and you want some gold exposure, this is one of the least shittier ones. How's that? These are all Canadian con artists. What else do we have? I believe this one's from Toronto.

Okay, so you texted me the other day about Empire State Building. I did. I bought it anyway. I didn't even wait for you. I didn't respond. All right. I'm making money. You didn't want my response anyway.

No. Time out. I got to jump in. Last time I texted you, what do you think of SLG? You said, I don't. And then I made 75%. Time out. I got to jump in. Last time I texted you, what do you think of SLG? You said, I don't. And then I made 75%. Give me a clap. All right.

Go ahead. Thank you. You're welcome. That was so sad. I'm having to request his part. That was very emasculating. Yes. So, Reitz, left for dead, man.

Nobody likes them. And when nobody likes something, I'm interested. Josh Brown likes REITs. I like them. And I like REITs that you wouldn't think I would like. Why don't we take a look at some? What is this? Alexandria Real Estate Equities, bro.

Where is it? I've never heard of this. Well, maybe you should look at more REITs. Where is it? What do they do? I think they're like in all the major cities, Boston, New York, D.C. Look at me with my fundamentals, huh? Look at me.

This is an office REIT, first of all, if that means anything to you. And I see us back down to those former resistance levels back from 07 that you guys pretend don't exist, right? And we're back there finding support. No, they exist. They just don't matter. Okay. Well, clearly it matters this time again. So if we're above 120, I think you own it.

Look at public storage. Here's another one. 52 billion market cap, by the way. Josh, don't you like this one? Was this the Amazon one? I know it. I'm not in it. No, you're thinking about Prologis.

Right, right, right. This is like three Doge coins in market cap. This is public storage, PSA. Dude, this thing looks like trash. Does it? I see a finding support. Everybody agrees with you. Come on.

This is a daily. It's just garbage. Zoom out. I can't. Sometimes I just can't. Then don't. This looks garbage. Michael's looking at 30 second gambles.

Yeah, dude. I'm on a daily. I'm on a daily. This is trash. Hold on. So if we're above those 16 highs, you want to own it, knock yourself out. Look at this one. Co-star.

So I have one I like better than this. I like real estate services better than I like REITs. Real estate services are going to be the companies that help all these distressed situations. Like, you don't have this chart. CB Richard Ellis. What's the ticker? I think it's CBRE. Or it could be just CB.

No, Chubb is CB. CBRE group. This is going to break out. These are companies that are doing like outsourced real estate for Fortune 500 companies. It turns out large corporations with lots of real estate assets or leases or whatever don't actually want to deal with it at all. They want to outsource it all. That's going to be a good business right now where nobody knows what the hell to do with it at all. They want to outsource it all. That's going to be a good business right now where nobody knows what the hell to do with all their office space. So I actually, so CoStar is in this service group.

The brokerages, the outsourced services, I think that's actually a great place to be. What do you see in this chart? I see it going from the lower left to the upper right. And that's cool. And I see a nice base over the last few years. If it breaks out above 95, you buy it. In the meantime, you sit tight and watch it.

Okay. What else you got in here? This is me. You don't love this? You know. Did you update it to account for the rally today? I did not. Stock's on fire right now.

Oh, big day today. It was up 2%? Up 4%. Whoa. Hey, now. Yeah. Big volume. I mean, to read. Big volume. It's only $ today. It was up 2%? Up 4%. Whoa, hey now. Yeah. Big volume. I mean, it's a read.

Big volume. It's only $2 billion, the Empire State Building? I'm just going to tell you that the Empire State Building will be fine. It's an $8 read, but it really shouldn't be $8.

This thing's going higher. It should be at least $11. Well, it's paying a dividend. It's buying back shares. No, that's good. They don't own 50 buildings. They own a couple of buildings. The Empire State Building is like

the premier property in New York. They are at 90% occupancy. I don't know about premier property. No, it is. For office real estate. Dude, it's junky offices. They're not nice. No, they have, they've been doing substantial renovations

all over the entire building. I've never been to an office in there. Have you? No. They're doing, yeah, I looked at office building. I've never been to an office in there. Have you? No. They're probably not. Yeah, I looked at office space. They're doing amenities in the building now that you would not believe. They are.

Yeah, they are. They are. It was bad for a while. They're doing all kinds of stuff. Granted, I haven't looked at office space in 13 years or something like that, but nevertheless. When I went, it sucked, right? Listen, the point is there's a flight to quality in commercial real estate in big cities. It's not that companies are running away from the cities.

They can't. That's where their younger employees live. It's where their customers come and visit them. What's really going on is the Class A tenants are crowding into Class A buildings. I would not be investing in B buildings or C buildings. Is Empire State Building a Class A? It's considered a Class A. It's definitely a Class A location.

And they're doing a lot of work on the building. And they are beautifying this thing inside and out. And it's going to be fun. All right. So my personal belief. There's a website. Because I used to have a view of the Empire State Building. And there's a website that, you know how it changes colors?

It tells you why it's that color, like every day. And it's for the dumbest reasons you can imagine. Like most of them are not like, you would never think that that's the reason. Most of them are not like the Giants just clinched and they're going to go to the Super Bowl. That's not right. Well, that happens every now and then, I suppose.

But you know, there's literally a reason for every day. You'd be sort of like somebody's coming into town and it's for them. You both saw the Dolphins this year? They're going to the Super Bowl. Next chart. Dolphins 30, 49ers 23. All right.

How many charts do we have left? I think we only got – I think this is it. What is this? So this is four-star group real estate. It's a subsidiary of D.R. Horn, and it's making new all-time highs. That's incredible. That catches my attention. So this is small cap.

Look at it breaking out. If it's above 25, I think take a look. Yeah, FOR. And I think that that might be... That's it? We're out of shorts? We're out of shorts? Do we have any more?

Nicole? Oh, Iron Mountain. Oh, what? I don't know what this is. So there's a data center REIT paying 4% and making all-time highs. This thing's a freaking beast.

So do you want to own the Empire State Building or do you want to own this? This used to be filing cabinets. You know that? Nice pivot. Yeah. Well, right.

They did the digitization of records. JC, you do it again. Hold on. The last one. Oh, one more. Yeah. Well, right. They did the digitization of records. JC, you did it again. Hold on. The last one. Oh, one more. Okay. Last topic I want to mention quickly is healthcare.

You know, we had a massive bear market in equities. A lot of things went down. This one didn't. This one went sideways. Dude, you crushed it. Can I throw the trade? Can I throw the trade? Yeah, give us the trade.

Hold on. So zoom out on healthcare. Does that look terrible? No, I'd buy it. Second largest component of the S& throw the trade? Give us the trade. Hold on. So Zoom out in healthcare. Does that look terrible? No. Second largest component of the S&P. Second largest component of the Dow. FYI. Pfizer.

Disgusting. And then here's the trade. This is what I bought this week. Hit us. Give it to them, Nicole. The AbbVie. AbbVie. Yeah.

So this spun off from Abbott Labs, and it's now bigger than Abbott Labs. Yeah. Wow. It's a beast. So I like it. If we're above 135, I like it long. I'm very, very long. Ladies and gentlemen.

Pfizer and Bristol-Miles, 52 kilos. Yeah, JC, you crushed it. The JC Chorchow. That's incredible. We do a couple of things really quickly, but let's just tell people while the iron is hot,

how do people sign up for more of your stuff? They go to allstarcharts.com. Yep. Okay. Yep, go to allstarcharts.com. You want to throw up that last slide, Nicole? If you want to check out the trailer

for the docuseries that we're filming out in Asia that the boys just got back today, go to... It's like Chartists Gone Wild, basically. Is that the pitch? We didn't record that part. Go with that. Wallstreettoallstreets.com. Check out the trailer. It's really, really

cool. These guys had a lot of fun. Jim Rogers' house. That's pretty cool. Hey, throw this up. U.S. homeowner equity. Here's why the housing market didn't blow up when interest rates quintupled and mortgage rates doubled. The consensus was that real estate is in big trouble

and the housing market's in big trouble. And, you know, it seems like we could all look back at it now very smugly and say this was so obvious. But like really, the equity stake that homeowners have, yourself included, yourself included, in their homes is like the unsung hero when you have now the value of houses going back up again. If you didn't sell, most people are not looking to sell because they don't want a new mortgage at 7% or 3%. These are equity-rich mortgages.

So where the holder's equity stake is at least half the property's worth, that's now 49% of the national total in the second quarter. That's a huge surge over the last four years. During the pandemic, it was about 27%. And as you can see here, it's a lot of states that maybe you wouldn't think of off the top of your head. Nevada, Louisiana, Arizona, Florida, Utah.

But you've got, those are the states which declined. But if you just think about your local area and the people that own homes around you, that is, to me, like a very unsung hero of why the consumer has been strong and the housing market hasn't fallen apart. People just have built up a lot of equity. They're okay on their mortgages. They were able to refinance no problem. For three years, you could refinance for almost nothing. That's not the kind of thing that changes overnight.

It would be really hard to have a recession without home prices falling. And they're just not falling and they're not turning over either. Well, guess what? Paradoxically, if rates weren't at 7%, maybe you would see price corrections. Yeah, I agree. Right? People can't sell and therefore they don't. No, I 100% agree with that. But that is not in January and February. That is not the outcome that you would have been predicting as they were raising rates by 25, 25, 50, 50, 75. Well, but just think about it. The best performing sector in the back half of last year when the market bottomed in June was consumer discretionary. Homebuilders were already making new all-time highs.

So we've already seen a ton of strength from the consumer. as we're already making new all-time highs. So we've already seen a ton of strength from the consumer. And even still, with the rally that we've seen in technology, on an equally weighted basis, the consumer is still the best-performing sector. You look at airlines, and airlines are not consumer discretionary,

but they kind of are. They kind of are. Cruises. You know, gaming stocks are making new all-time highs. Costco. Cruises doubled. Bro, Costco. Costco's a staple. Listen, you got 3.6% official headline unemployment.

You got people with money in the bank that's now earning money. Think about how wealthy people feel right now. Home prices have stopped falling and are now bouncing. Okay? People have gotten raises. People's cash balances in the bank are now earning them even more money. Their stock portfolios are racing back to all-time highs. Of course the consumer is still going for it.

That's to me the least surprising externality of this. Are you calling Twitter X? I'm not going to. No, nobody is. Is anybody? No. When you send a tweet, are you X-ing? I think you're Z-ing.

Nobody. What are you laughing at? Are you Z-ing? Oh, you're Z-ing. Nobody. What are you laughing at? Are you Z-ing? Oh, I put something in here. No one is going to say Z. Oh, I thought X-ing. Is the thread already dead? Have they shut it down yet? But it said X-E-E-T-I-N-G. How do you pronounce it? X-E-ing? Oh, you're being serious. I swear to God.

Are you on threads? I tried it out because everybody else did and it sucked, so everybody left. Is everyone gone? Yeah. I can't use it for compliance reasons. It's like 90% of the users are down. Listen, you said I can't use it, right? Why? Why? Don't you want to photocopy all my tweets and put them in a file?

No. Oh. It's not even chronological. Twitter is unmonetizable as we know, right? I don't know. Not since Elon bought it, but it's just impossible to monetize. They were doing $5 billion in revenue in 2021. Now I think they're going to do three.

That's what the reports are. LinkedIn did $15 billion. We have this as a chart. This is like, this is something most people probably don't know. I love LinkedIn. Alex Morris, by the way. Great chart.

You use LinkedIn? Do you talk like, you really, why do you say it like that? What am I going to use LinkedIn for? I don't know. Like look for a job? Like find babes?

I don't know. No. I think it's great. I like talk to people on LinkedIn. Who do you talk to on LinkedIn? It's people that are using their real names. It's professionals.

No. I swear to God. I use it all the time. No. I think it's great. I think it's great. Okay. Real quick.

We're finishing up here. Are you using MySpace too or no? Can we talk about Inter-Miami? Can we talk about soccer like for 10 seconds? I know you're Kane's fan, Miami Heat fan. You're Marlins fan-ish? I grew up an Orioles fan. All right.

Are you going to get into this soccer thing? You guys have the best player on earth playing for your team. I think David Beckham is one of the general managers of the team. Are you excited about this or not really? Cubans don't play soccer. Really?

No. No excitement at all? I don't care. You know the guy that owns the team is a Cuban billionaire. No. I mean, listen,

I'm happy for them. It's good for the city. You should see where they play. They need a new place. Well, I was going to ask you. They're playing this shit in Fort Lauderdale of all places.

Yeah. Well, they didn't have a place for something like this to occur. Okay. They'll build something. Yeah, yeah, yeah. For sure. They'll build something hyped up in Miami. Listen, I'm super stoked for the city.

I'm stoked for the people who care about that sort of thing. But, like, I just, you know, I watched, like, the World Cup when the U.S. is in it. It's fine. You know. Can I tell you something? I watched the first game. They played, I think they They played You were texting me. I was like feeding my baby.

I'm like, I'm not watching soccer. The first night, they got Lionel Messi. They didn't play him in the first half of the game. The second half, they put him in. The crowd loses. And everyone's there. Kim Kardashian's there. LeBron's there. It's a big deal

they put him in the game i think he scored a goal like immediately the second game he played atlanta i was watching was last night or two nights ago he scored two goals like within 15 minutes this is unheard of shit going on it's the best player in the world and major league soccer starting this new tournament where they're going to play the latin american league and they're like very big stakes and i feel like it's at the beginning of this finally becoming like an american interest thing i hope it does you know because the problem is americans play other sports right in a lot of these other countries their best athletes play soccer right so their soccer teams are like our best athletes play football and baseball.

Yes, but if we can now recruit the best soccer players from around the world and they were willing to play for major league soccer teams in America, that changes the game. And also it brings it to the local cities. The kids have a team to root for and stuff like that. I think it's great. You watch soccer, right? Some.

I mean, Ted Wessler kind of got me back into soccer. Nice. Okay. I think it's kind of cool. The guy that owns it is, he owns 35% of this stock, Maztech, MTX.

Do you know what this is? It's like a Cuban, Cuban run infrastructure company based in Miami, but it's public. Yeah. Okay. I've had my Miami high school friends asking me about this stock for 20 years. What's the ticker?

Maztech. M-A-S. All the Cubans ask you about MassTech? Yeah. They all know somebody. So, dude, this guy, Jorge Mas, pulled off quite a coup. Yeah, MHH. He got the best player in the world come play for him.

That's some Pat Riley shit right there, right? I mean, that seems like kind of a big deal. Apple is charging $12 a month for MLS. Like, get all the games. Every game, every team. New York has two teams.

And I don't think either one of them are particularly good. All right. You have fun on the show today? Always, man. You know, nice to be here. Did you have fun today? I like that shirt. It's important that everyone has fun.

I always have fun with J.C. Nicole, you did an amazing job with the charts. Just want to say thank you. And she was taking photos. And photos. Nicole always have fun with J.C. Zier. Nicole, you did an amazing job with the charts. Just want to say thank you. And she was taking photos. And photos. Nicole is crushing it right now. All right, let's do favorites. Michael, why don't you start us off?

I listened to a great podcast on vacation. Derek Thompson's playing English. He had Julia Alexander from the Puck. Or from Puck, is it? Puck, yeah. Talking about what's going on with streaming, linear movies, and the debacle at Disney and Netflix and Hulu and how that gets resolved, and it was just great.

How was Baja Mar? It was great. Have you ever been there? I had a great time. I've never been there. Great time. Yeah? What was your favorite part of what was your favorite part of the vacation? I mean, just, so it's been a couple years since we were away without the kids. That was fun. I love gambling.

What did you play? Blackjack. I just love being at the table. Do you want another drink? Yeah, I do want another drink. Please. I just love that part of it. I love it.

And the weather was nice and the food was great. It was a great time. Loved it. Well deserved. He was on Slack from the beach. I can't help it. Responding to me, I'm like, can you just go have a vacation, please? I can't help it.

He can't help it. All right. me, I'm like, can you just go have a vacation, please? I can't help it. You can't help it. All right. I listened to a bunch of podcasts recently. Seth Klarman was on with Ted Seides. I haven't listened to it yet. He's probably the opposite investor as you are, like his approach. He was shorting stocks this year? No, no, no, no. I don't mean like he's betting

against the things that you're betting on. I know him. He's doing the things that are most off the beaten path. He's not like, what's the best stock in the S&P to buy? He's looking for like a private credit where people think a bank is going out of business, but it's really not. He's probably buying business.

He doesn't give a shit about sentiment. Yeah, anyway, this is one of, and I emailed this to Ted. First of all, he doesn't do, Seth Klarman doesn't do media. He's putting out the 6th edition of the book and he got a lot of really great

people lined up to write chapters in it so that's why he's on with Ted but I told Ted this is like the perfect way to interview Seth is the way that Ted did it because Ted really knows everything about this guy so it's worth listening

to. And he owns part of the Red Sox. And I think he's a billionaire. The Acquired podcast did the Nike story. Do you have a list of that show? No. You would love this. Okay. It's four hours. Oh, I heard about this. So I had to drive to Newark Airport. It's like the business side, right? I made sprinkles to this whole thing.

I heard about this. It was really awesome. It's really good. Cool. And then Ice-T was on Drink Champs. So Drink Champs is like just all legendary rappers. And Ice-T is one of the better life stories. Anyway, those are my three. Do you have any favorites for us today, JC?

I just wanted, you know, something that I think gets underrated and lost quite a bit is just how good the sushi is in New York. I know Josh doesn't like it. No, I do like it. You don't like it. I like spicy, crunchy. I can't even look at you. New York City is like real city when it comes to sushi.

Like people are like, oh, there's good sushi in Charlotte or in Chicago. No, no, no, no. New York City is like a real city when it comes to sushi. Go off, King. Say more. Why? 69 Leonard. Well, it's New York, so, no. New York City is like a real city when it comes to sushi. Go off, King. Say more. Why? 69 Leonard. Well, it's New York, so, right?

Yeah, everything's better than everywhere in New York. I agree with that. Well, I don't know about all that, but sushi, like, it's on the map globally in terms of, like, there's real Japanese cuisine here. Give us some more spots. 69 Leonard. What else? 69 Leonard, and the best plan B in the history of plan Bs is Blue Ribbon Sushi. And the fact that that's the plan B and the place is bomb and you could always get a table.

Blue Ribbon Sushi in Fidai? Sushi in Fidai. No, no. There's a Blue Ribbon Sushi in Financial District also. Yeah. Well, there's the original one next to the Blue Ribbon that we used to go to. Yes. With the oxtail.

Not oxtail. Yeah, they do an oxtail fried rice. Yeah, they do an ox tail fried rice. Yeah, they do. No, bone marrow. That's what I was thinking. You put me onto that. Oh, but that's the original blue ribbon. This is blue ribbon sushi specifically.

I like Japonica in the village. Been there since the 80s. How many sushi joints you know have been around since the 80s? Yeah. Okay. 69 lettered for omakase.

Is there a decent sushi in Midtown? I can't find one that I like. No, right next door. Sushi by Bo. Sushi by Bo does a little omakase. That's too much for me. Dude, Koya is next door. No, but Koya is a f***ing bang out.

They might have sushi. They have sushi, but I feel like that place is almost disrespectful. Stop eating in Midtown. Go downtown like a normal person. I work here is my problem. Okay, well, go downtown. The food's better. All right, JC Peretz, ladies and gentlemen. Cr downtown like a normal person. I work here is my problem. Okay, well, go downtown. The food's better. All right, J.C. Peretz,

ladies and gentlemen. Crushing on the show today. Thank you so much. Thanks to Duncan. Duncan, rough week for you? A little bit. No John here? Made it.

Yeah. All right, you made it, though. You did a great job. I was killing it. Killing it. Nicole, Duncan, Rob, thank you guys so much. Thanks for everything.

John, we missed you. Sean, great job in the doc. Shout out to all the listeners. Thank you guys so much. Thanks for everything. John, we missed you. Sean, great job in the doc. Shout out to all the listeners. Thank you guys so much. Make sure you check out allstarcharts.com for Michael's vacation photos. Where can they go? OnlyFans? Okay. Hey guys, remember, if

you love the show, give us a rating. Give us a review. Tell your friends. We'll see you again next week. Thanks again. I asked somebody to take a picture of us. I posted on Instagram. Look at this picture that she took. Who does that? Is that the weirdest thing ever?