The Compound and Friends - When Will the AI Bubble Pop?

Starting point is 00:00:00 So can we play? Can we hit play? Do I have to do that, John? No, I can do that. Alright, hit it up. Hit it up. You want to play it right now? Yeah.

Starting point is 00:00:07 One sec. John, I'm proud of you. That's why we're going off the charts with the help of Joe Fammi. He's the portfolio manager at Zura Capital LLC. He's also the founder of joefami.com education, because he's got a unique take on the situation. When you look back, we've had a bull market and all things AI going back to late 2022 or early 2023. You can argue about the exact start date. It's certainly not great. It's pretty phenomenal.

Starting point is 00:00:31 I'm grateful. I'm grateful. Don't get me wrong. Because that's where NVIDIA, the backbone of artificial intelligence, delivered one of the greatest earnings report I've ever seen. And aside from a detour earlier this year, this stock's never really looked back. We know that in terms of money-making potential, AI is more of an enterprise technology than a consumer technology. But Fahmy points out that ChatGBT was still the fastest application

Starting point is 00:00:51 to reach 100 million users. So this was actually- We don't need to do the podcast if you play this whole thing. So did you notice that he went from Fahmy to Fahmy and back and forth? Fahmy four different ways. Fahmy, Fahmy, Fahmy.

Starting point is 00:01:04 Fippy, Flappy, Samsonite. Fudgy, everything. It was great. Dude, that is real shit. There's millions of people that see that. I was, it was beyond grateful. Did your phone blow up? My phone never blows up.

Starting point is 00:01:16 No one calls me. No, I got some emails. It was good though. When was that clip? Last week. Oh, nice. So I've never met you. Have you guys ever met? Actually no, we met because you beat me in the Stocktwits board. Oh, I, okay. Create every year. So I've never met you. Have you guys ever met? Actually no.

Starting point is 00:01:25 We met because you beat me in the stock Twitch board. Oh, I, okay. I was the one who nominated. I thought you were going to do it right here, stacked in the middle. How was my mini stand up routine? Wait, it was good. Did you wing it? He beat you in what?

Starting point is 00:01:36 The stock Twitch career of the year. It was between me and my policy. Well, I had Josh. It was two on one. It wasn't fair, Josh. So I want to tell you, we're going to see a comedy tonight. I did well. I did like 30 seconds of stand-up. You did stand-up?

Starting point is 00:01:51 I mean, 30 seconds. Was it good? It was good, but I mean, that night was really raunchy, the comedy. My routine was a little racy. It was a little... It fit the theme. That's the thing. It did fit the theme. That's awesome. Did you ever do open mic? No. Really? No, I did 30 seconds.

Starting point is 00:02:07 I've been dying to do that. But I'd go. I'll tell you, I'll tell you. Could you do five to 10 minutes of stand up? I think I, I mean, I think I could. You could tell stories. I think I could. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:02:17 I think I could. You could make it funny. All right, so I'm very excited for this. Josh is probably, what time is it in Italy? He's probably drunk on Cavitelli right now. Nine? Yeah, he's definitely drunk on Cavitelli. So you guys.

Starting point is 00:02:32 Is this mine here or is that his? That's yours. Okay, it's just the cord was going across the board. Are we quickly clackety, are we ready or not yet? If you're ready, we're ready. Yeah, let's go. Let's go. Let's get the headphones on and get going.

Starting point is 00:02:42 Let's go. Do we do a sound check? No, we're good. Joe, you always are a rod dog with us. No computer. Why do I need a computer? This is my computer. USA. USA. Thank you guys. Let's go. Do I have to smile again?

Starting point is 00:02:57 Yes. Pretend like we're friends. Pretend like we're friends. 98. 198? 198. 198. Wow. It's like Billy Joel in Madison Square Garden. Whoa, whoa, whoa. Stop? 198. 198. Wow. It's like Billy Joel in Madison Square Garden. Whoa, whoa, whoa.

Starting point is 00:03:07 Stop the clock. Here's a word from our sponsor. Today's show is brought to you by our sponsors at Betterment Advisor Solutions. If you happen to be thinking, there's got to be a better way to grow my RAA, you're not alone. With Betterment Advisor Solutions, we do the heavy lifting so you can focus on what matters most, your clients. From improved service that makes asset transition smoother to fast, paper-free onboarding that

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Starting point is 00:03:51 Rocket Money is a personal finance app that helps find and cancel your unwanted subscriptions, monitors your spending, and helps lower your bills so you can grow your savings. I've said this before and I'll say it again, one of my favorite things to see in my inbox is, refund detected, boom, hit the app, what's this? Oh, returns, love to see it, money back. Rocket Money's dashboard gives you a clear view of your expenses across all of your accounts.

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Starting point is 00:04:59 own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions. Clients of Ritholtz Wealth Management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. I'm very excited to be joined by my good friend, Joe Fahmy, and my new friend, Shay Ballour. Everybody here knows Joe, but for new listeners,

Starting point is 00:05:29 Joe is a portfolio manager at Zor Capital, a New York-based investment advisory firm. Joe has 127 years of trading and research experience and has appeared on CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Wall Street Weekly and more, and Shay is the chief market strategist at Futurum Equities, an investor intelligence and research platform.

Starting point is 00:05:48 And he's a host of the Daily Rip from our good friends at StockTwits with Katy Perry and Bruni. Shout out to all the people at StockTwits. For those of you who don't know what StockTwits is, it's a social media platform for traders and investors. Gentlemen, welcome. Thanks for having us.

Starting point is 00:06:02 Thanks for having me. So I appreciate you guys being here. It is the third and also Daniel, Duncan, welcome. Thanks for having us. Thanks for having me. So I appreciate you guys being here. It is the third and also Daniel, Duncan, Nicole, John. This is, they are not happy to be here. It is Thursday afternoon. That's why they're awesome. Before July 4th, they're like, Josh is off, are you kidding me?

Starting point is 00:06:18 We're really doing a show. We're doing a show. The audience shows up for us, so we show up for them. I'm excited to have both of you on today because there is a lot of overlap in the pond that you fish in. Joe, I know you're a big eater. It's a big pond.

Starting point is 00:06:32 So you both are invested or interested in growth stocks, you particularly hyper growth stocks, but you come at this from a very different perspective. So I am excited to get your guys' views. Thank you very much for being here. Thanks for having us. It's exciting. I will say, I feel like a little substitute teacher during fifth period before summer break.

Starting point is 00:06:52 But it's all good. It's all good. We could be the Tom Brady, the six round pick from before the holiday weekend that no one expected to be. Anyways. So OK. Let's talk about the bull market. Joe, you wrote a research note, we just alluded to it. Kramer took some of your stuff.

Starting point is 00:07:10 I know that you take a longer view, a shorter view, you're very aware of the fact that there are risks and the market doesn't go straight up, but you like to zoom out and not get shaken out by all the wiggles and gyrations of the market. I try. Where do you think we are in the cycle? I'm saying we're about year two of a four to five year bull market.

Starting point is 00:07:34 That's where I think we are. So I, the reason I titled the piece, don't lose track of the bigger picture because I believe we started a new bull market in late 22, early 23. I say May of 23 and I'm saying that because it's a bull market driven by AI and that's when Nvidia reported the greatest quarter in the history of the markets. Some people say October of 22 because that's the actual low, that's when chat GPT came out, who cares? It's all actual low. That's when chat GPT came out. Who cares? It's all semantics. The whole point is late

Starting point is 00:08:07 2022 early 2023 new bull market powered by AI historically. I'm a market nerd geek. I love studying history historically bull markets are powered by inventions and Innovations that revolutionize our lives go back to railroads Airlines television PCs drug discoveries internet, you get the point. The new discovery or the new invention that's revolutionizing our lives is AI. What do all of those discoveries have in common? They help increase productivity.

Starting point is 00:08:38 So railroads, you got from New York to LA a lot faster than you did walking, obviously. So you have a lot of people way smarter than me, and I know that's a huge sample size. They're saying that AI is going to be bigger than the internet. It's going to help increase productivity. Mark Andreessen is a perfect example. Go look at his piece he wrote a couple years ago called Why AI Will Change the World. You have a lot of people saying that.

Starting point is 00:09:03 And I'm saying that's when the AI, which has been around for a while, but where it really started to pick up in early 2023 with Nvidia, the true market AI leader. And my whole point of the piece is that this is going to go on for a while, very similar to the 95 to 99 period. However, there's a huge, huge factor in this. There will be corrections, shakeouts,

Starting point is 00:09:25 pullbacks. Just have one. And you could argue the recent tariff one was an example of one. Yeah. Shay, you, I think you are newer to investing than Joe is. Older than him. How do you view, so I know that you have a very unique style. You are probably less concerned with a lot of the broader, where are we in the cycle, interest rates, who cares?

Starting point is 00:09:47 You are focused on companies that are absolutely changing the world. So do you care about where we are in the proverbial cycle? No, because first off, history doesn't rhyme, but often repeats, like going off of what Joe was saying about the dot com era. If you go back in history during that revolution, what was the hidden gems of that era? It wasn't the IBMs, the Verizon, AT&T, these firms that are building the structural arteries of the internet, but the first phase it felt like these are going to be

Starting point is 00:10:14 the biggest companies in the world. The hidden gems of that era were the online marketplaces that were built on top of them. The Googles, the Amazons. So right now we're, it's still in that first stage of AI. All the attention is on the Mag 7, the NVIDIA is up there, the hardware servers, compute, et cetera. The biggest winners of this era won't be those names. Although NVIDIA, it's hard to say they're not the biggest winners.

Starting point is 00:10:37 Going from about 200 million to 4 trillion is wild, but you're getting signs of like what the second stage of AI winners are going to look like and how Explosive is going to be because we have Palantir. Palantir is the first company that proved if you build on top of all this AI Hardware how disruptive it could be on so many different industries. So right now Palantir I got in very early a couple years ago I saw the vision of like I think they're gonna be to be the stage two AI winner, first one, there's going to be multiple, now at $300 billion company, but there's going to be a couple of them.

Starting point is 00:11:10 So when we got this pullback recently on Q2 of this year, I'm like, I was laughing because the way AI investment works, when they spend billions of billions of dollars, you can't just turn the switch off and then pause until this tear for resolve itself. Like this business spending paralysis we experienced, it wasn't going to be terminal because AI investing does not work that way. It was going to have to continue or all the cost that you did originally was going to be sunk. That's not the way that enterprises work. So I think that Q2 was a gift because we're still on the path towards that second wave of AI,

Starting point is 00:11:46 which hasn't really happened yet. I believe that as soon as the Gentic AI has its Chad GBT moment, that's when we're going to see multiple Stage 2 AI winners, not just the Palantir, Cloudflare, et cetera. There's going to be a lot more companies that are going to be going from small make-cap to all of a sudden they're a mega cap company. All right. So Joe, Bespoke has been on this beat for a while showing chat GBT, the launch of chat GBT in November of 2022 overlaying that with Netscape and the, you know, whatever

Starting point is 00:12:14 two lines magic, who cares, but they do track, they're both going up to the right. And it sets the stage that maybe we are not necessarily in the eighth or ninth inning of the bull market. It is a little bit hard for investors, myself included to think that we are not necessarily in the eighth or ninth inning of the bull market. It is a little bit hard for investors, myself included, to think that we are in like the early innings of a new bull market because I think that people think we've compounded, the SAP has compounded at 15% for like the better part of the last 13, 15 years. You're telling me that like we're now just experiencing a leg up. How? Couple of things. One thing I've learned from 127 years of doing this

Starting point is 00:12:47 is moves go on in the markets way longer than we can expect. So just when you think something can't go higher, it usually does. And just when you think something can't go lower, it usually does. So moves can go on longer than we expect. I'll tell you a really quick story.

Starting point is 00:13:02 I have a friend of mine who was a famous hedge fund manager when CMGI, the internet incubator in the 90s, it went from split adjusted one to 120. And he said, this is a zero. This is my biggest short position, this is a zero. And he was dead right. You know what the problem was? It went to 360, split adjusted before it went to zero.

Starting point is 00:13:23 So that's an example of moves can go on much longer than we can expect. The second thing I was gonna say is that we just came off of two bear markets from COVID and in 2020 and 2022. So when you're saying like this is just- Three bear markets. What do you call the first quarter?

Starting point is 00:13:39 Or April? Technically, I think it was bear market like. I know you're going by the stupid 20%. Nvidia fell 35%. It was a quick bear market, it was bear market. Yeah, I think the tariff scare was kind of was bear market like. I know you're going by the stupid 20%. Nvidia fell 35%. It was a quick bear market, it was bear market. Yeah, I think the tariff scare was kind of a bear market, just quicker. Average bear market's about nine months, 27%,

Starting point is 00:13:52 but that's average, sometimes shorter, sometimes longer. But you had COVID, you had 2022 when the Fed was raising rates, and then this tariff scare. So when you're saying like, we're just getting started, we've come off of like three really huge corrections in the past four years. Yeah, we lose sight of that very often when you look saying like we're just getting started we've come off of like three really huge corrections Yeah in the past four years. Yeah, we lose sight of that very often when you look at the returns It's like well, they were hard. They were hard. It wasn't just straight up into the right So sure I should have asked you this earlier before we get too deep into the conversation. Who the hell are you?

Starting point is 00:14:18 I see you on the on the internet on Twitter. You're doing great things You're going deep in these companies, but where did you come from? What is your background? What are you doing here? Yeah, seriously, well, how'd you get on the show? I feel like I just went on a reality TV show and just got a clock all of a sudden. No, because my buddy actually hit me up this week.

Starting point is 00:14:34 He's like, last time I talked to you, you were working corporate strategy as a director. Now you're on TV six times a week. So essentially, I started as a corporate strategy director at a Fortune 10 company. And my whole career has been digesting large sets of data and creating a narrative for C-suite because they don't have the time to do exactly what needs to be done. So my interest has always been investing.

Starting point is 00:14:56 I did it on the side. 2020 happened. I became a Finchwood follower. I was like, I don't like legacy media anymore. I think this is much more alpha and it's much more exciting. And you saw the explosive nature of 2020, 2021. It was like, I got hooked. And then I started using all my skillsets.

Starting point is 00:15:13 I learned in the W2 world into my investing. And I was like, I think there's a niche on FinTwit, for example, of something I can offer. It's usually data vomit or too much noise, not enough signal. So I was like, I'll try it out. And especially my fiance, girlfriend at the time fiance now, she was sick of me talking about it So I was like, I'll try it out. And especially my fiance, girlfriend at the time, fiance now, she was sick of me talking about. I was like, that's a good outlet. Maybe I'll try it out.

Starting point is 00:15:30 And that was two years ago. Now it's turned into all this. I'm now a chief strategy. You would talk to your fiance about stocks. I'm sure she loved that. Of course. She hated it. She stuck around.

Starting point is 00:15:37 She's an art, she's an artist too. Yeah, sounds awesome for her. So what's, so what's Futurum? You just started this. Yeah. So Futurum is essentially, there is exactly what Robin Hood was doing for brokerages, taking down that wall, democratizing how to invest. There still has not been done that for the research side. Institutional research, there is a massive paywall on that. And there's a reason

Starting point is 00:15:58 for it, it's because they're closer to the access, closer to the signal of decision makers. They want to maintain that kind of defensible moats. Futurum has a B2B angle and he's and Dano Newman, the CEO and founder of Futurum, he knows the next derivative of institutional research has to be retail. So he's willing to take that risk of being the first to disrupt that institutional wall and democratize research. So now you have Robinhood democratizing how to invest. Now we're trying to democratize what to know before you invest.

Starting point is 00:16:29 Those two are part of the calculus. I think is going to be pretty explosive in this era where, I don't know, JP Morgan released something recently that 60% of investors are essentially a retail and retail is becoming such a heavy component of the market where you're seeing Robinhood there almost a hundred billion our company bigger than Apollo insane seriously, and Palantir is almost bigger than Oracle at the time like just a couple six months ago Like you're seeing how much weight retail has and it's impossible

Starting point is 00:16:56 If you're still dismissing the retailers investors the dumb money you're the dumb money No institutions well the sidelines April 7th. Where was the bottom? Right. Same week. They puked into the lows. Yeah. And they're still slowly getting back. And that's why there's real move on this V-shape recovery because there's trillions of dollars that need to be liquidated into the markets from that sideline reaction that they had two months ago.

Starting point is 00:17:18 So let me ask how, because you've never been through, and I wasn't alive live, I mean, I wasn't an investor during the dot com bust either, but you haven't been on the other side of the excitement going the other way and the multiples going from 130 times sales down to three. How do you think about risk when you're looking at these companies? Because I know you are not, you don't care as much about the valuations or the ratios. That's, you know, but how do you think about downside risk? I actually disagree. I think I experienced in 2021. I think that's, you know, uh, but how do you think about downside risk? I actually disagree. I think I experienced in 2021. I think that's that bubble that we experienced, like, I

Starting point is 00:17:49 agree. That was pretty excessive. So I think that my learning lesson from that era was you have to invest in companies with emotes, a competitive advantage. Can't do that. Do they have a network effect? Do you have a product that's scalable? Do they have an ecosystem that locks you in?

Starting point is 00:18:03 I think a lot of like, I T's a great example of software companies. It's tomato, tomato. Uh, you have to really invest in a company right now that has a defensive monopoly or duopoly and let the market make rise 20, 25% a year and just take it with you. So I think right now, like I used to factor in fundamentals, actually part of my equation of being an investor, which companies invest in.

Starting point is 00:18:26 Now I'm like, I want to pick the companies that have a monopoly in early sector growth themes with plenty of runway. Nobody knows the ceiling on AI yet. All they know is it's going to be impactful. And going back of what Joe's saying, every revolution, it's been product oriented in my opinion. AI isn't a product, it's a characteristic.

Starting point is 00:18:44 It's providing intelligence. And. AI isn't a product, it's a characteristic. It's providing intelligence. And because it's not a product, it's a characteristic of what the world's gonna become, that's highly scalable across every industry. Everything you do will be touched by AI going forward. You can't say that about really the dot com era. Maybe you could because everything's a website, but not really, there's still brick and mortars out there.

Starting point is 00:19:02 You can't say that about the cloud era. So this is the first of its kind in my opinion, where scalability of it is unmatched. It's never been done before. So on the fundamental side, for Amazon, as an example, in the aughts, when they were hemorrhaging money, net income was clearly the wrong metric to look at. It was free cash flow.

Starting point is 00:19:21 And that opened people's eyes into how to maybe think differently about these hypergrowth stocks. What do you think is the new sort of metric for these AI companies that are rewriting the laws, the fundamentals of business? Do you think that there are new metrics? Not to sound like so f***ing top, oh my God. But are there other things that we should be thinking about outside the traditional

Starting point is 00:19:42 business valuation metrics? That's a good question. You like eyeballs in the late 90s. I don't know. But are there other things that we should be thinking about outside the traditional business valuation metrics? It's a good question. You like eyeballs in the late 90s. I mean, you're right. I mean, Amazon was cashflow positive in 03. Everyone was shorting and saying, they're not making money. They're not making money. They were, they were just reinvesting, you know?

Starting point is 00:19:56 So metrics, I like to use a lot of technicals because I think if you know areas where the institutions are gonna support the markets, then that's, I figured they have the teams and the resources, they, you know, that really where they've done their due diligence and their, you know, the fundamental work where they can see where this could go three, five, 10 years from now. So I kind of want to follow what they do. But that's a really good question.

Starting point is 00:20:21 If there's like something on a balance sheet or something, you know, sometimes it's intangible That's why the word value is not just PE. There's value in Businesses as values and brands so it's it's it's really hard to think of something specific besides right now You just there's just a lot of explosive growth. So Shay. I know what you're not just you're not you're not really a chart guy Are you per se? I think you have to wear both hats at times, but, uh, you're a business dude. I'm a business dude. I could take off with like, to answer your question. I do think for growth, there's a specific rule that I like to follow that

Starting point is 00:20:51 communicates the rural 40 score. You can combine the revenue growth. Plus the adjusted free cash flow margins. It's very difficult for an organization to have a 40 plus score. If you do, that means you have some kind of competitive advantage because anyone can grow 40% and lose money. It's really difficult to balance being profitable on an adjusted basis and growing top line 20%. So I think going forward, you're going to see the cannibalization of the software or growth tech space by seeing the imbalance of how

Starting point is 00:21:19 many companies are going to be qualifying for the rule of 40 score. Like it's ridiculous, but Palantir just scored an 80 plus recently. They're 2Xing the terminal goal for every enterprise out there. That proves to me they have a moat. Another characteristic is CrowdStrike. CrowdStrike pre-outage were part of the unicorn status. They had a 65 plus score. Now they're doing the outage hangover and they have to give some credits.

Starting point is 00:21:43 It's affecting the margins, but they're still qualifying even when they stopped the world from working for a couple of hours. They're still qualified. So I think the rule 40 score is kind of where the eyeballs need to be of do they have an advantage? Are they going to capitalize on AI and maintain that status? John, top charting team please.

Starting point is 00:21:59 We're skipping deeper into the doc, but you keep mentioning Palantir. So Julian Climochko tweeted a chart showing the enterprise value to next 12 month revenue multiple on one plot and then against revenue growth. And for the most part, everything clusters around the regression line, but there's this one gigantic outlier and that's Palantir. And so if you were to just look at some of these traditional metrics, I think you might miss a lot of the underlying stories. Is that what you're saying?

Starting point is 00:22:29 Yeah, absolutely. I mean, for Palantir, for example, like I'm not giving the green light like buy it right now at whatever it's at 200 times earnings, but I think for Palantir though, it's all about let's go on the business front. So you see all these multi trillion dollars in investments towards LLMs, large language models. The only way to bring these LLMs into the real world is through Palantir. That's the only way right now.

Starting point is 00:22:52 They have a kind of a monopoly in that status. So all this LLM arm race, that's why Palantir continues catching a bid because they're making the case on why you need Palantir. Like if you're investing this much in LLMs, you're eventually gonna have to adopt ontology and need Palantir. Like if you're investing this much in LLMs, you're eventually going to have to adopt ontology and what Palantir's offerings are. And there is a thesis out there that they're growing 40%.

Starting point is 00:23:11 There's a world that can grow 50% if, unfortunately, the way that world's heading towards, you're going to need more defense, especially on the government side. So the commercial side is booming right now. If the government side picks back up, especially with the recent NATO deal they announced just a couple months ago,

Starting point is 00:23:27 Europe is going to start adopting Palantir as well. That government side of the business can really pick back up to 50%. And then at that point, it might be a rule of 40 square of 90 plus, which has never been done in the software space. Yeah, this is pretty lazy thinking. But just to be curious, your reaction when you think about a company like Palantir, the fact that it

Starting point is 00:23:43 when did it come public? Has it been around for like, A couple years, like three or four years ago. It's already guys a bigger market cap than Coca-Cola. No, I know it's apples and oranges. You know what my thesis is? Don't bet against the CIA. That's it, done.

Starting point is 00:23:54 Yeah, okay. Simple enough. All right, Joe, let's get back to some of the technicals that you're looking at in the market. You brought some charts. John, throw some up, please. Let's start with the S&P 500. How do you think the market is behaving

Starting point is 00:24:10 on a technical basis, Joe? Okay, so this, well, this chart is an example of big, I'm trying to make a point of, you know, everyone has different timeframes. Longer term, if their analogy is the last great invention was, you know know internet 95 to 99 if that's something we can compare it to and I think this can be 2023 to you know let's say 2027 or 2028 let's just whatever we don't even know we're gonna

Starting point is 00:24:35 have for dinner tonight so let's not worry about three years from now but the point is I'm making I really want to stress this point so everyone's like oh you guys are bullish and bullish and bullish. There will be corrections along the way. And this chart was the S&P in 97. There was a Japanese Asian currency crisis and there was actually like a mini crash. That's a daily chart. And this, so this reminds you for when everyone says,

Starting point is 00:24:58 oh, 95 to 99, this chart and the next one in 98 is also like, this was long-term capital Russian Russian debt crisis and so forth when Russian when Long-term capital blew up and it wasn't until the Fed came and put together a rescue to bail out You know the levered hedge fund that pullback doesn't look too dissimilar from from the tariff right But my point is that I remember being in eBay I bought it at 50 and went to 200 and it dropped like dropped back down to, I don't know, like 20 or 30 during this time. And then it went to 300. So there was insane split adjusted and all that.

Starting point is 00:25:32 But there was insane volatility where at the time the Yahoo's and all of these AOLs and all these stocks are trading, they dropped like 30, 50% in the summer. So I'm making a point that I think bigger picture, if you're longer term, I think we're still going higher. But if you trade individual stocks, there will be insane volatility along the way. You made the point just now about pullbacks. And I'm sorry that I said you hadn't been through it

Starting point is 00:25:56 because you had. And it's a pet peeve of mine for people that pretend 22 didn't exist. So forgive me, Shay. 2021 and 2022 were brutal for growth stocks. Nvidia fell by two thirds, Facebook fell by two thirds, Amazon, Microsoft, not Microsoft, Amazon and Google both got cut in half,

Starting point is 00:26:14 and we just pretend like that didn't happen, and guess what? Like I said, Nvidia fell 35% in April. Because they all came back. So when they go from whatever meta goes from whatever it was 400 to 100 back and even higher Now whatever the numbers were you got to remember though in in the 90s some of them did not come back You know like so eventually you're gonna get to a point where they're not gonna go out of business They're just gonna like Intel and even Microsoft for what 13 years like there's gonna be a period where they're not gonna go out of business of course they're just gonna flatline I

Starting point is 00:26:46 just think that it's not yet so I fully agree with that sentiment because first off like on the pullbacks like the VIX had a 50 handle mmm that's substantial and I think the last two 50 handles are Yankee trading the terrific hissy fit the reason three those was man oriented, one, the other one's pure technical. It wasn't really based on something structurally going to have changed for a couple of years. But that event that he's talking about, that multi-year, maybe five to seven years of just lagging, that's going to happen once agentic AI has its chat dbt moments. Why do you say that?

Starting point is 00:27:23 Because IT spend is so bloated. It's been so bloated past couple of years where every board of directors is telling the CEO, what are you doing to get ahead of AI? And it's causing the CTOs to overspend on just middleware that's not necessary. And it's been growing year after year. So as soon as agentic AI takes off, which AI agents, that is,

Starting point is 00:27:42 essentially replaces what humans do on the back end of a lot of these software companies. You're going to see that 20% revenue growth that a lot of these software companies had, same with the hyperscalers, consistent growth, start getting a little lagging because of that digestive period of like replacing human labor force costs with just this one-time software of an AI agent. And now you have to figure out how else you're going to grow. So you're saying that when these models change the world

Starting point is 00:28:09 on a consumer level and we all feel it, that will probably be the time where all the gains have been harvested? It's going to be on the enterprise level. I think consumer level won't be as impactful. I think it's going to be more of the middleware. Spend is going to diminish. And it's underappreciated how much software spend's really

Starting point is 00:28:24 taking, lifting the market right now. So who are some of the beneficiaries of the software spend right now? Are you talking about like companies like Salesforce and like? Salesforce, I think a lot of the CRMs, I think a lot of the DevOps are going to be the ones that are going to get affected by the AI, I call it the AI tsunami. It's coming, it's going to hit the software space hard. The ones who are going to not just survive but thrive are going to be the ones that the

Starting point is 00:28:43 data infrastructure players because data is going to not just survive but thrive are going to be the ones that data infrastructure players because Data is going to explode like we talked about AI agents like they're gonna be working 24 7 They're gonna be doing tasks that dozens of people have taken and to me constant workload It's gonna cause data to compound and compound and beauty of data is like I do a query today and tomorrow I have to build on top of the existing query, only compounds and stacks onto each other. So I think that you're seeing like Meta, for example, like Meta is going so hard right now or Zuckerberg is going so hard on making sure they don't lag in this AI race that he's spending $20 billion on essentially a shadow acquihire of Alexander Wang.

Starting point is 00:29:21 The only reason he's doing that is because their training data is not where he wants it to be. Data labeling is a very big component of that. So in order to cut off the arm of open AI on Google, who was using scale AI, he's just going to bring all that talent in house and have Alexander Wang lead his super intelligence team, because he knows that if they're, when there is going to be that AI tsunami, it might, if they're not going to be one of the leaders of that AI race, it might cause a 25% haircut.

Starting point is 00:29:50 And 25% for Metta is $500 billion. So him investing $20 billion just to get the leader of his super intelligence team or $100 million signing bonuses. I've heard those signing bonuses are insane. But it makes sense though, because it's a drop in the buck of the $500 billion at risk potentially. That's a good point. That's a really good point. So, Joe, we had a Zweig breath thrust. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:30:12 When was the last one triggered? That was April 25th. End of April, yeah. And that was about the bottom. And this is, this by definition happens at bottoms, because it's when you get this extreme reading bearish to extreme reading bullish. Pretty much, yeah. And that has historically been the bottom. Dietrich has this table, I don't know, 17 out of 17 times it's been higher, you later.

Starting point is 00:30:33 Yeah, it's so, yeah, and people can go to Investopedia or just Google what is why breath thrust is. It's basically- It's when you have the 10 day EMA of New York Stock Exchange advanced decline, move from below 0.4 to above 0.0. It doesn't matter. It's when you go from extremely oversold to extremely overbought. It's insane institutional buying in 10 days, basically. And why it's... So Marty Zweig came up with this,

Starting point is 00:30:57 and I love his two best rules, don't fight the Fed, don't fight the tape, legendary investor. And he came up with this, it's only happened 19 times since World War II. So that's a rare time. And what's, you know, nothing, of course, is guaranteed. But you can see going out six months, 12 months later, it's 19 for 19 or whatever, 18 for 18, whatever the numbers are of being positive and most of the time outsized returns, maybe even more than double what the average of the market is. So something to keep in mind, it triggered end of-

Starting point is 00:31:33 End of April. Yeah, basically from that April 9th, 10th low, yeah, it's 10 trading days. So check this out, I've got a companion chart. Let's throw up charts section from Chart Kid. So Matt made this chart showing the rolling 59 trading day. Why 59? Because that's when the bottom happened.

Starting point is 00:31:51 That's when the bottom happened in April. And since then, basically around when the breath rush triggered, the S&P is up 26%. And it's pretty rare that you've had this sort of 26% change in 59 day period. Not a huge sample set, but the last five times it's happened, we've been higher 12 months later. Right, and that's the whole point is, so again, that's kind of the theme of don't lose sight of the bigger picture.

Starting point is 00:32:17 And that's part of the other reason I did this is because you have noise with the tariffs, you have noise with geopolitical, you have noise with the Fed, all of this stuff. And I remember somebody telling me after just a couple of weekends ago, US bombs Iran, oh my God, we're gonna crash. We're going to zero.

Starting point is 00:32:34 Everyone's gonna die, blah, blah, blah. And I'm not putting that, I'm not like, that's not the point. I'm talking from a market analysis point of view. The market was super healthy. There's no distribution, meaning very little days of selling. That's why I'm saying there's something bigger going on here, which is the theme of AI. And I told you, people way smarter than me are like, this is going to be bigger than

Starting point is 00:32:54 the internet. He understands this way better than I do. I'm just saying, don't fight the tape. There's something bigger going on here. So let me ask you this. Sorry, I just want to finish on this part. So in a market like this where God bless America, we are we close today at all-time highs. Yeah, it is very difficult to ride a bull market Yeah, whether you're in indexes or even more so in individual stocks. You're not afraid. No I'm guessing that you are not not long right now No, I'm fully invested, but I will be. I've been piecing out. I'm like not fully fully, but I've been taking I actively manage.

Starting point is 00:33:31 So I do take some profits along the way. But new highs don't scare you is what I'm saying. No, no. There are stocks I would buy today. Yeah, it's technically very bullish. You know, but what could be more bullish? But no, but going off to the point of the durability of this bull market though If you told me entering this year that US or Trump would be able to attack Iran the market wouldn't tank oil wouldn't spike

Starting point is 00:33:53 I beg your delusional. There's no way that that would be the closest thing we have to a world war three Why didn't we get there? It's because AI is still the mean events. You're seeing these big tech companies throw billions of dollars. At Futurum, we believe the next couple of years, there's going to be multi-trillion dollars of spend in AI. That provides a very high floor on any kind of pullback in the market because right now, well, you probably know this, I don't, but I think S&P's trading at 25 times earnings. It's not ridiculous. It's not ridiculous.

Starting point is 00:34:21 Okay, we just had, this is from Liz and Saunders, Q2 saw the widest outperformance for growth over value dating back to the mid 90s. Growth was up 19% versus just 2.5% for the S&P 500 value. Just a remarkable, remarkable run here. No? No, it makes sense though because again, you guys might be correct me on this, but it's the first time in stock market history, we have multiple super cycles happening at the same time.

Starting point is 00:34:53 We have AI, we have quantum, we have robotics, electrification. Like this is a time, this is the golden era of innovation where you have so many different themes that are going to be so disruptive in society. Why go for the value? Like this is an era where you're going to find themes that are going to be so disruptive in society. Why go for the value? Like this is an era where you're going to find early disruptors that they might miss. Like 90% might miss, but that 10% will be life-changing. And historically, the greatest stock winners throughout history trade at 1.7, 1.8 times the S&P multiple. Meaning the biggest winners throughout history will trade.

Starting point is 00:35:23 So if the S&P is trading at 20 to 25, say round it up to two, it's going to be 40 to 50 times earnings. And people might say that's ridiculous, but what's one of the most loved, widely held stocks in the world is Apple. And not that long ago, Apple was trading at 72 times earnings before it went up 3000%. My point is you get what you pay for. Big winners trade at a higher P.E. historically and then they grow into that P.E.

Starting point is 00:35:49 Pay up for quality. Yeah, no doubt. So one of the things that I think older experienced investors tend to do is over index too much on their formative years. And I think the dot com boom and bust is like the poster child for this. So people would say I've seen this movie before. We know how this ends. We saw the tech boom and bust. And listen, I'd say there's a decent chance that we are going to experience a bubble and a burst. I think that's probably table stakes, right?

Starting point is 00:36:14 Yeah, I'm agreeing with that. I'm just saying not yet. 2028 is where I think it's going to be a good one. OK, so 2028, nobody knows when it's going to come. Maybe it's here today, who knows. But the point is, for a revolutionary technology, how could there not be a bubble? Of course there's gonna be.

Starting point is 00:36:28 There always is, the railroads had one, and dot com, and this is supposed to be bigger than all of it. Yeah, so there will be a bubble. One thing that is different about this one, not to say that it won't end poorly, because they all do eventually, is that the biggest, deepest pocketed investors

Starting point is 00:36:45 are now supporting the cycle. I'm talking about Amazon and Microsoft and Metta who have an unlimited appetite for spend here on their R&D and their CapEx because they think that this is an existential threat. Right after that Dwight breath thrust and we were still below the 200 day on the S&P and the NASDAQ,

Starting point is 00:37:03 we gapped above that on exactly, cause there's gonna be growth scares and people worried about spend slowing and all that. But what happened at the end of April, after the close, Microsoft and Metta, when everyone's like, we were waiting to see their spend and they're like, yeah, screw you guys. They came over the top and said,

Starting point is 00:37:21 we are spending an insane amount on AI and that's what gapped us above the 200 day because people are like oh there isn't the growth scare here these guys are full steam ahead. That fear is always from randall like the deep seek news i forgot when that occurred but that caused every tech semiconductor stock to tink because everyone's worried about like i want to hold in this bubble but i think it was down was down to 11% that day. Yeah. Because no one is ever going to buy their chips anymore. Hashtag sarcasm. It's ridiculous.

Starting point is 00:37:48 But there'll be bumps along the way in growth... Digestion periods. Of course. That's why I'm making a point when people are like, oh, these guys are way too bullish. Yes, we're bullish, but I'm telling you, whether it's again, DeepSeek or one-off news or tariffs, there might be even the whole point of this wide breath thrust is it's six to 12 months now. So traditionally August and September are two of the statistically worst months of the year.

Starting point is 00:38:11 People go away, sell some stuff and the market's a little bit weaker. We could have more tariff talks. We could have a fight with the Fed and all this stuff, but I think if we do get that drop, we got it the last two years, I think that's a viable dip. This notion that we're bullish or you're bullish, this is not us, the market is bullish.

Starting point is 00:38:28 The market's telling me. The market is telling me. The market is not an all time high. If your inclination is to be scattered and all time high, you are not going to make money. At the end of the day, the big institutions control the markets, period, end of sentence. My opinion, your opinion, anyone's, it doesn't matter. The big institutions, the big pension funds, mutual funds, hedge funds, they are buying and or selling, but they are trafficking in millions and millions and millions of shares.

Starting point is 00:38:52 So what I try to do is do my best to interpret. When they are all dumping at the end of 2021, early 2022, when the Fed raised 500 basis points in a year, they've never done that in the history of the markets, they're all dumping ahead of that, but they don't do it in one day. They were consistently doing it all through January of 2022. When they're coming back in consistently, and some of them are under-invested where you get these tariff headlines, you get these geopolitical headlines, they're like, we got to get involved. So when they're consistently buying and supporting the markets, that's what's telling me to stay bullish, not my opinion.

Starting point is 00:39:28 Last thing on some broader market stuff before we really dive into some companies, which I'm excited to do. Eric Soda posted this, I think this was June 29th. So last week he said, the surprise to me is that with the Nasdaq at a new high, only 10% of the index of stocks are at a new 52-week high. They have a lot of room to run. So Joe, I know you pay a lot of attention to internals and rotation. And just on Tuesday, we saw a very unusual

Starting point is 00:39:55 while the outperformance day of the equal weight, which was up 1.2% while the SP was down. This is the type of thing that you love to see in a bull market. It is not narrow at all. Sector rotation is the whatever the hallmark of a bull market, whatever that phrase is. Beginning of the month, beginning of the quarter, beginning of the fiscal year for certain, you know, government companies, whatever. So one day there was a lot of growth stocks, even ARKK was down 2% and the Russell was up over 1%.

Starting point is 00:40:21 What I like is that it's not universally selling, it's sector rotation. So there's gonna be some profit taking and a bunch of growth stocks were down 5% the beginning of July. And that's why I'm making the point it's not gonna go straight up. There's also another NASDAQ chart similar to the one

Starting point is 00:40:38 you had with the compound. You said it's a rare thing and made me think of it. There's a NASDAQ 100 chart that I put in there towards the end of like, it's basically data going back to 1985. I don't know if you- John, chart 11, please. If you have it there.

Starting point is 00:40:51 Yeah, this is similar to the one you were saying, which is this is data from 1985 to present. And it's similar to the, it's very rare. Cause the one you had, it only happened five or six times. This is when the NASDAQ 100, after it goes from down 20% to a one yearyear high within three months. This means everybody was off sides. Yes. To being too bearish, uh-oh, we were wrong, everybody bought it. Look at the times this has happened. It's come off of the 90-91 bear market, it came off of 98 off of

Starting point is 00:41:18 the long-term capital, it technically wasn't a bear market, but it was a bear market in my view. From 2000 to 03, you had the dot com, you had 9-11, you had a 36, pretty much a 36-month bear market. These are after 2009, after the financial crisis. So my point is after COVID, these are like major bear markets and scares in the markets. And this just happened on June 24th. And again, nothing's guaranteed. It's just rare.

Starting point is 00:41:45 A year later the queues are up 40% on average. So let's get into the Mag 7 and what might be the next batch. I've been sharing this chart with Josh for a while. We're talking about Apple divided by the S&P 500. And as far as I'm concerned, this ratio will never reach a new all-time high. Do you guys agree or disagree with that? I agree.

Starting point is 00:42:12 Okay. Not only that, it is sitting at a very tenuous spot, multi-year support, and it just found support there again. I don't know if it holds for long or not, but Apple is probably not where you want to be if you are a growth investor. Wall Street wants to see growth. Again, period, end of sentence. Wall Street wants to see

Starting point is 00:42:34 growth. If the market's going up and you're growing your company, for the most part, your stock's going to go up. Is Apple going out of business? No, that's not what I'm saying. I'm just saying it gets to the point where it's just slow and steady single digits and go ahead if I mean to interrupt, but like I just don't see any explosive growth from here. So I'm going to say it flat out honesty about Apple. They're going to be here, but there is no world. They're ever going to be a growth company again, ever. Yes. 2.4 billion devices out there.

Starting point is 00:43:01 They should have been the leader of this ambient AI system trend that's going to be causing them to be this consumer AI winner. Do you think if they buy one of those AI companies they've been talking about, would that change your opinion? Because this is the honest point that I was trying to get at. Talent doesn't want to work there. They have a culture problem. Big brains want to work at XAI, they want to work at MetaZuck, they want to work with Elon, they want to work at OpenAI with Sam. Nobody wants to work at Apple, this Diner Server company who they're comfortable

Starting point is 00:43:29 being this cash cow and their AirPod revenue is what? Four times the revenue of OpenAI's top line revenue. They're comfortable just being a services company. Is it too, can they change it or is it over? It's over. I think you're seeing them try to weigh the white flag without verbalizing it of, we're going to have open AI and we're going to have Enthropic partner up with us and sell a real estate to them and make that cash again, low hanging fruit, but they couldn't solve it with an in-house because they don't have the talent to do so.

Starting point is 00:43:56 It would have to be a major restructuring or a major acquisition that they could implement in to what are you going to do? Take, take your revenues up another three X from here. It's hard to see that. The revenue is not growing. No, it's not. It's, it's a financial engineering company. That's all it is.

Starting point is 00:44:14 But my tin hat theory is in two, three years, they're not going to be at the point where the board of directors want them to be. There is going to be a very splashy merger that I think that open AI's board is going to force upon potentially of an Apple-OpenAI merger where Sam becomes the CEO of Apple. And that would be the tin-at theory that I have of... Because I don't think Sam's going to go public. What about Microsoft? Why would they want that? That's the only hurdle. I think I'm waiting for that sign of like... OpenAI and Microsoft is having this weird conversation back and forth.

Starting point is 00:44:44 Like I think that's going to be much more of a breakup than what we see right now but I think that there's gonna have to be a massive acquisition for Apple to get a product-oriented CEO to run that company right now because Tim Cook isn't product-oriented. A few weeks ago I showed Josh a chart of CapEx divided by revenue of I think I was using Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet. And it was up and to the right. These companies are going all in. They are spending so much money percentage of their top line.

Starting point is 00:45:13 I don't know if it's 30%, it's a huge number. Whereas Apple, it's going down and to the right. They're not doing anything. They're not spending any money. I mean, the natural derivative of what Apple should do is what's the next innovation of hardware. It's humanoids. That's what's going to be the North star for Apple going forward.

Starting point is 00:45:32 I haven't heard one thing about them trying to tackle that. Like why not you spend $10 billion on a car that just fizzled out and it was just a science project in the labs, but you're not willing to spend billions of dollars. Like you're spending $600 billion on buying back stock. Just use 10% of that $60 billion towards some kind of avenue to conquer humanoids. Because I'm talking poorly about Apple, Mac, Apple phone, AirPods. Like they have leverage. Use that leverage to create what the future physical AI world is going to be. Joe, when was the last time you owned Apple?

Starting point is 00:46:04 I don't remember. It's been a while, huh? I haven't owned it in a long, long time. I the last time you owned Apple? I don't remember. It's been a while, huh? I haven't owned it in a long, long time. I don't care to own it. I don't care to own it. I'm a growth manager, they're not growing. Period, end of sentence. And it's 30 times earnings.

Starting point is 00:46:12 It's not even a company. It's not exciting to me. Yeah. All right, so John, chart 15, please. What we're looking at are each individual Mag-7 stocks and their relative performance year to date versus the S&P 500. And what stands out to me, very clearly, is that it's Nvidia, Microsoft, and Meta in one category that are winning,

Starting point is 00:46:34 that are beating the index, that are getting the benefit of all this growth that investors want. And then there's Apple down in the dumps, Tesla for a myriad of reasons not doing well, Apple down in the dumps, Tesla for a myriad of reasons not doing well, Google not great, and Amazon is sort of somewhere in the middle. Any opportunities of the companies that we just mentioned and the latter that are not in favor right now? Tesla. Why? First off, I think Tesla and Apple are experiencing macro causes.

Starting point is 00:46:59 Tesla, EV, solar credits removed, Apple had the China, like you have to go away from China. So like there's a little nudge on that but... So what's the bulk case on Tesla? The bulk case on Tesla is, again, everyone's worried about the car delivery numbers we just got yesterday. 389 estimates, the community had 384. Why did it catch a bid? It's because it wasn't as bad as fear. I think the worst lowest estimates were 350,000.

Starting point is 00:47:23 They're not a car company anymore. But you don't care about cars. I'm right guessing, right? Okay. Yeah. So I think the future, like why I'm bullish on Tesla, I own it still, top 10 position. They are the only player building the AI network from mobility and robotics.

Starting point is 00:47:34 Physical AI is the greatest ham in mankind history. It's the only one that could really replace, it can touch every part of the world and replace head counts at a scale that's never been done before. So what does physical AI mean exactly? Replicating a task that a human can do essentially in a non-digital form. So actual robots. Actual robots. And I think you're seeing all these videos of like, oh, figure's doing this, like, lifting this kid, lifting a string, putting it over here.

Starting point is 00:48:02 They're a robotic leader. No, that's not how it works. General application of robotics is the only scalable approach. The only player to do that right now is Tesla. The timing is awful right now. Who knows how long this is going to take. It's going to be on the Elon Musk timeline. And what that means is you just never know because he just is hyper bullish. But I think there's inevitability that Tesla is going to conquer humanoids They're going to solve autonomy. It could be in 10 years. It could be in five years, but

Starting point is 00:48:31 The just think about how transformative autonomy would be in the car industry Everyone every car is being sold in your gross margins one time now if Autonomies actually solved your car can be your freaking employee. You can make an ROI on your car, acquire, buy it, and it drives other people. There's an application component of it where you capture that note in a vehicle sale, and then you can actually make an ROI on it. That's underpriced in the autonomy angle. It's going to take a while, but I think that's, that's the North star of Tesla.

Starting point is 00:49:04 And when it, I think it's going to hit when it does, it's going to be so transformative that buying it under $2 trillion is going to be a deal because again, caveats, how many companies right now, there are early disruptors in the stock market are the same price they were at four years ago. I think I can maybe do a couple. I mean, the cat, the pushback is Tesla was, I mean that was crazy. That was crazy, but they're also going through a narrative change. Yeah, that was a huge move that they went on.

Starting point is 00:49:31 Was it up a thousand percent in 2020? I think it was a ten-bagger. It was up, yeah, 800 or something, yeah. Yeah, because I remember Cathie Wood at a ten percent position went up 800 percent, and it was half of her gain that year. So on the humanoid, is that like a hardware multiple though? Or, or no. No, it's as soon as here's an example, it's just Elon solves humanoids.

Starting point is 00:49:52 Amazon's going to buy thousands of them. All of these companies are going to buy thousands of them because they don't care about solving the humanoids component because it's too capex. It's too complicated. They don't have the data feedback loop necessary to solve that issue. So as soon as they actually create that product, I'm just giving Amazon an example. McDonald's is going to use them. That's another example, but everywhere else will use them and it's going to be acquired.

Starting point is 00:50:16 And that's why Amazon, for example, I'm a big Amazon bull, top three position. I think their retail presence is going to become, provide them such an enablement on capturing all these growth themes. Like they don't care about creating their own drones or robots. As soon as there's a drone winner, they're just going to acquire all those drones and it's going to be an immediate OPEX boom for them. Same with humanoids. As soon as Tesla sells the humanoids, it's going to be a major margin expansion opportunity

Starting point is 00:50:40 in the retail side of the business. Because Amazon Prime, that's their moat and they don't worry about investing to be having the in-house. They're just going to allow the retailer to enable them. But I think that a lot of people are going to weigh in line to acquire these humanoids from Elon once they solve that. And who knows what the multiple is going to be on that because it's going to be like an Nvidia situation where their GPU is in such high demand that it's going to just cause them to have this 10-year boom probably

Starting point is 00:51:08 that they're going to benefit off. And who knows what multiples deserve when you have a 10-year supply and demand wonkiness and you're the only player in the shop. You're going to do a podcast one day with two robots sitting across from you. Yeah, maybe. I'm telling you. Joe, what names in this orb are you excited about? Like how low in market cap do you go?

Starting point is 00:51:28 I can go low because look, I agree with him that it's not just AI. I mean, even in the 90s, it wasn't just dot coms. There was fiber optics, there was cell phones, Ericsson, Nokia, all this like, so there's other themes going on right now. So I do like that energy data center is technically AI, but there's huge growth there.

Starting point is 00:51:51 And you have, again, people like Elon Musk and Larry Ellison, all these smart people saying like the demand, I mean, expect it to go what, 1% to 8% of the energy grid for data centers and so forth. So energy is a theme. Space is a theme. You also have super smart people like Richard Branson and Musk and Bezos involved in space. I think they're doing that for a reason.

Starting point is 00:52:15 But that's like 2027, 2028. So I'm OK with stuff outside of AI because there's just sexy growth stories out there right now. So when you think about the next Max 7, are we thinking about names like CrowdStrike and Uber or you thinking like companies that like maybe aren't on our radar? Like what's that flying plane one that is a Joby the? Oh Archer Aviation. Archer and Joby are both in this flying taxi.

Starting point is 00:52:38 Is that real or are we just smoking dust? It's I think what's real about it is Anderil, the private company. Yeah. I think the defense component of like, being above your head. I think the reason there's such an appetite for arch-aviation is they're not just a hardware company. They have a software solution on top of that. It feels very much like a Palantir-like component. And Anderol loves them. They pair up with each other all the time.

Starting point is 00:53:01 What do these flying companies do? I mean, it could be something like, I want to go to Brooklyn from here and it just cuts through traffic. It's going to be a much bigger defense component where the old defense has been hardware supremacy. That's a mentality for a lot of what defense has been. The trillion dollar budget just last year has been towards hardware hardware dependency. The future is gonna be a digital battlefield and part of that component is yes cyber security it's gonna be a heavy component

Starting point is 00:53:32 everyone's gonna be attacking each other through that route there's also gonna be above your head the drone component of it there's gonna be heavily vital for the arch-aviation is a component of that. Another one is the Palantir is a decision engine on identifying where the threats are. That's vital as well. So like, I think this digital battlefield is a massive theme that provides somewhat of a offensive and a defensive component because during Q2, one of the strongest names in risk on environment was these new age of defense names.

Starting point is 00:54:02 The Palantir is crowd strikes. It's because geopolitical tensions is somewhat of a tailwind for them, unfortunately. But if you also want exposure in AI and all these growth themes, you also have to invest in them. So they have the benefit of both worlds. And I do believe that it might be very early because Archer Aviation is a five billion dollar company. It's expensive. But they're being used heavily in the 2020 Olympics in LA. Like it's happening, the commercialization of that. Do you think

Starting point is 00:54:27 about the economics of these businesses or is that like, and not to be disrespectful, is that a distraction to you? No, no, it's not disrespectful. The economics a distraction or are you just thinking about like that that really is a distraction? I'm thinking about the explosive growth and the sort of like traditional valuation. It's just a sideshow at this point. So I think valuation becomes part of the calculus based on the maturity of the company and how big it grows. Like Palantir, I could care less a little when I was under 25 billion. Now at 300 billion.

Starting point is 00:54:56 First off, I haven't added in Palantir since the Yen K-Trade crisis when it hit $22. That was the last time I added. I, it's through the roof. I don't need to have built a substantial position, but for archery aviation, it's all about their moats and advantage, especially in the future world we're about to enter where this new age defense theme I'm talking about, Evatols is going to be a component of that. What is?

Starting point is 00:55:14 Evatols. What is that? Electric, essentially the flying, electric vehicle flying jets. So like the Joby Aviations, the archery aviation. And they'll be electric, yeah. Yeah, so that's a heavy component. Not just the defense, but the retail for...

Starting point is 00:55:28 You need to go to Long Island to take an hour and a half. It can take you 20 minutes. Same, they're doing it in Dubai now. But that's the retail side. There's also the military component. So do we genuinely think that there's going to be... Because a lot of the talk has been about these incumbents, the hyperscalers, they are so big and powerful and virtually indestructible, they are the new venture capitalists,

Starting point is 00:55:54 whatever they see that's working, they just acquire. Is there going to be a company that gets to, I don't know, $2 trillion, that is, it could be on our radar or not, like is there going to be another Mag-7? I mean, I think Pound's here is the closest thing to that next Mag-7. All right, what else?

Starting point is 00:56:12 What are some other names? I mean, there's always themes that, you know, they rotate, you know, it went from Fang, and then people drop Netflix, because they didn't like it, and meanwhile Netflix has been a monster. Fine, let me ask, let me ask a question. It's always going to be.

Starting point is 00:56:23 Let me ask you better. Yeah. So, the year been a monster. Fine, let me ask you a question. It's always going to be... Let me ask you better. So, the year is 2039. Are we still talking about Microsoft and Meta the same way we are today? If not, who is going to be in that sort of category? I know it's impossible. No, I mean, I think whoever's... Don't say Palantir again.

Starting point is 00:56:44 Palantir. No, I think it's going to be say Palantir again. Palantir. No, I think it's going to be whoever solves agentic AI at scale. I think whoever can figure out how to orchestrate outcomes at scale is going to be one of the biggest second wave winners of AI. So who's in that category? I think... It's private companies though. That's like, they're all in experimental phase right now.

Starting point is 00:56:59 That's why it's so tricky. Yeah. And then not just AI. I mean, one, I'm talking my book a little bit here with Rocket Lab. Oh, I love Rocket Lab. I mean, Rocket Lab, I wrote about it. I'm in from single digits. I wrote it publicly on my blog at $10.

Starting point is 00:57:11 And if SpaceX just did a, their most recent funding round was 350 billion and Rocket Lab's at like 10 to 15. I'm not saying it's gonna grow to that point, but Barron's called them the closest competitor even ahead of Boeing, the closest competitor to SpaceX. And that's the thing where that demand- Why didn't you tell me about the stock?

Starting point is 00:57:34 Thanks Joe. No, it's the FedEx of space. I've been a big Rock Lab fan under five bucks. What a stock. Oh my God. No, it's because Peter Beck is a- He's executing. He's the Steve Jobs of the space era. Everyone thinks about Elon, because Peter Beck is a he's he's executing is the Steve Jobs of the space era

Starting point is 00:57:45 Everyone thinks about Elon, but Peter Beck is a frickin scientist. He knows how the Rockets built inside and out He's all in on it and they they used to just be a satellite launching company or like rocket launching company They've morphed into a full-on space prime. They are becoming the space logistics coming in the future What are they doing in space? I mean, what aren't they doing in space? An Electron rocket where they've done, I think, 230 successful launches. Now their new Neutron rocket is going to compete

Starting point is 00:58:13 with the Falcon 9, I believe, from SpaceX, meaning it can carry the bigger payloads, all this stuff for satellites. Again, I'm not as- I know, I know. I'm not trying to put you on the spot. But I'm just saying like they are, there is huge demand from companies,

Starting point is 00:58:29 whether it's mostly bringing satellites up there and all this stuff, basically through just, not only companies, but from governments that need, and the, what do you call it, what's the word I'm looking for? The delay is like 12 to 24 months right now. So there are companies working on speeding that up. So that's the holy grail and space is on demand launching.

Starting point is 00:58:50 Right now, if you call Rocket Lab or SpaceX, yeah, we'll get you in in August of 2027. That's the other thing is there's huge potential for growth there. How about this? Let's flip this. What is overhyped garbage? What do we think is completely nonsensical?

Starting point is 00:59:07 If I want to really stick my neck out, I think Salesforce has not proven to me to be the structure. Oh, stop it. I'm talking about companies that are in the $10 billion category. Oh, OK. Let's go there. Like companies that are getting the benefit of the day. Chris, I was talking with Josh.

Starting point is 00:59:24 There's a lot of bullshit out there, right? That's a feature of a bit of a bull market. But this is what's great is the benefit of the doubt. Cause I was talking with Josh, there's a lot of bullshit out there, right? That's a feature of a big market. But this is what's great is a lot of the companies we're talking about, you know, Joby and Archer and Rocket Lab, these are highly shorted companies. Palantir, a friend of mine plays poker and everyone at the poker game is short Palantir and Goreweeds. That's all they talk about.

Starting point is 00:59:43 I'm like, the big short just ruined these people because they're like, they can't stop shorting them. So that's the whole thing is, the answer to your question is, there's two sides to these trades because some of the stocks we're talking about. Aren't you coward, I'll throw out some names. No, I mean, I think Coreweave.

Starting point is 00:59:58 I'm just saying a lot of people are saying, these stocks we're talking about are the ones that are not going to work out, but that's why we'll find out. There's two sides to these trends. I do think Corweave might be the one name that just bloated for capitalizing on the moment. They have a 27 billion like backlog, right?

Starting point is 01:00:14 No, that's the thing, but it's capitalizing on the- They went from 30 million to nine, almost a billion in sales in seven quarters. It's insane. I mean, that's, I've never seen growth like that. Why would you short that? Why would you short it? I wouldn't short it, but I think they're capitalizing on a moment right now where supply and demand

Starting point is 01:00:27 so off sides and they're also could, yeah, with, with the float as well. Yeah. And they have one customer, essentially Microsoft, they have one supplier, Nvidia, and they have one moment, which is right now they're capitalizing on. I think eventually supply and demand are going to even itself out. Who knows if you need a core weave once that happens. That's a risk. I call him the broker of the compute era. Business booming. Exactly. You never know though.

Starting point is 01:00:51 Sometimes things shoot in advance of the market trades on what's going to happen six to 12 months from now. And even with companies, their earnings top two you know, two to three, the stock tops two to three quarters before the earnings top. So Cisco topped in 2000 and they kept coming out with 50%. And everyone's like, why is the stock dropping? Because the market anticipates it's smarter than us. It knows two to three quarters from now that stocks top two to three quarters before their

Starting point is 01:01:21 earnings top. All right. Let me, let me throw two names that I know nothing about like really truly So I'll ask you guys Ruggedy and anionic like names like that. I on cue I on cue There's a bunch of those quantum computing. So is that is quantum computing real or is that just riding the stupid bull market wave? Jensen say it's like ten years down the road. He actually just changed to five recently He went from 15 to 10 to five. But, um, I think here's the issue with quantum.

Starting point is 01:01:47 It's the only way to get captured to pure plays are very speculative names right now. So IonQ is in my opinion, the most scalable approach to quantum because you can run their trapped ion technology in a room, uh, a room temperature environments. You don't have to go in sub zero like the rest rest. But it's highly risky still because I think you, in order for Quantum to reach Chad GBT moment, which I think Gents is accurate, we're nowhere close to that, it's gonna be essentially a science project

Starting point is 01:02:15 that's gonna be running at the expense of shareholders because right now, what, IONQ is worth 15 billion? So you don't mess with like these speculators? I own IONQ. Oh, you do, okay. But I owned it when it was under 10 bucks. Now at $15 billion, I'm like, I don't know if the Chad GBC moment for quantum

Starting point is 01:02:31 will happen by the end of this decade. There is some risk or reward issue there. Nuclear is another one, super, super spec, and space, of course. I think space, quantum, and nuclear are all three super, super speculative. That doesn't mean they're not gonna work out. They could be 10 baggers or they go to zero.

Starting point is 01:02:46 So Joe, I know you like to look at call buying. Why is that a signal? A lot of big institutions will, sometimes getting into 300,000 shares, a million shares, whatever, just doing that on the open market is, you don't wanna show your hand and all that stuff. So a lot of big institutions will get into positions through options.

Starting point is 01:03:10 That's why I like to keep track of the big option trades. Like Carl Icahn, when he got into that Netflix position, it was all through options. He bought in the money calls. Bill Ackman's done the same thing. Even when you've seen some of these activist investors that, you know, Nelson Pelton, some of these things, they get into them, starboard through. You'll see blocks of $2,000, $5,000 in the money calls because then once they exercise, they just get assigned those shares.

Starting point is 01:03:38 They don't have to really buy them on the open market. So I like to follow what they're doing. And for the past two or three months, it's been, I even have the list here, Amazon, Google, Arm, Nvidia, Tesla, Avago, now Palantir, even like Arm Holdings, they're buying June of, just go look at the open interest on June 2027 calls. Like it's insane.

Starting point is 01:03:59 They're buying like 10 million every day. So I'm not saying it's going to work out. I think these are big institutions that are playing for, and I wrote that in my piece, June of 2027, December of 2027, they're putting the huge footprints into these stocks. And who knows if this ends up surpassing what the average person could expect,

Starting point is 01:04:20 these could end up being, if they're all gonna go up because of their waiting on the averages, then the averages are going to go up as well. John, can we throw up chart 16? Shay, tell us about Futurum AI 15. What are we looking at here? Yeah. So again, like I referenced that the biggest winners of the dot com era wasn't just the first stage, like structural arteries.

Starting point is 01:04:43 It was the second stage. This is who we believe will be the second stage winners of AI. So you have the control layer, which again, AMD, I love that they're catching a bit right now because a lot of people had the complete wrong narrative on AMD. Like everyone's like, oh, they have an Nvidia problem,

Starting point is 01:05:00 Nvidia problem. Like, are you kidding me? The AI acceleration market is going to be $500 billion in the next three years. Nvidia will capture 80% of that. So they have $400 billion of that. What's the remaining? All AMD has to do is capture a sub 10% share

Starting point is 01:05:15 and that's $50 billion right there. That's substantial. So I think AMD is going to be using inference and as the massive talent for them to capture that sub 10% share. And if you don't know what inference is, I'm, I mentioned that, um, AI is intelligence, there's just call it inference, the tax on intelligence. So as much as you use, that's why once train data goes lower and lower.

Starting point is 01:05:37 Inference will explode because it's going to be a lot more affordable to have these AI experiments. Um, another metaphor you want to use is cars. Like during a deep sea pullback training data was going to go lower and it took everyone down with it because they were correlating training data and AI when that's not the case. So if, uh, training data is like gas, gas becomes cheaper. Do you think there's gonna be more or less cars on the road?

Starting point is 01:06:01 There's gonna be more cars than a road. Cause going from point A to point B is going to be much more affordable cars on the road. There's going to be more cars on the road because going from point A to point B is going to be much more affordable. Same thing happens in AI. So as training data gets lower and lower, inference will explode and that's where you're seeing AMD be a major beneficiary of that. Seeing Micron with memory being a beneficiary of that.

Starting point is 01:06:16 The biggest beneficiary of that is actually BrawCom, their networking component. Every hyperscale we've talked about uses BrawCom. I think BrawCom is actually going to be a top 10 company for next like five to seven years, maintain that status. A lot of people talk about Nvidia, TSM. That's a forgotten trillion market cap that people don't talk about as much.

Starting point is 01:06:36 I call them Uncle Sam, because remember that reference that made tax on AI? They are legitimately Uncle Sam. So the more people use AI workloads, they're going to benefit on the inference angle on that. So that's a control layer like the first layer of like they're going to benefit from inference. The operating layer is what we're talking about for the software component. Everyone's talking about Palantir. I'm not going to get into that.

Starting point is 01:06:56 We have ServiceNow. They're the IT management go-to. Bill got his finger on the pulse on where the puck's heading. I have full confidence that... Bill Cosby, which... Bill McTherman. Bill McTherman. But Oracle, for example, databases. Everyone talks about, oh, Oracle is like a dead company, like what, seven years ago, it's not going anywhere. This was the

Starting point is 01:07:19 second win that caused the renaissance for them because all this data is going from left brain to right brain constantly. What do you have to do with that data? You have to have governance in place to make sure it handles it correctly. Nobody can do that besides Oracle. Their presence is unmatched and you're seeing their OCI just continue to drive this company into new highs. What's the story with IBM?

Starting point is 01:07:38 We were talking about the stock earlier. My God, it's got on a second wind. Some of these old tech names, and you know better than I do, they've just reinvented themselves. And or they're getting more into either services or the software layer that is helping margins as well. Well, they're so essential in the enterprise space that as soon as there's a revolutionary movement like AI, you're going to have to go through them.

Starting point is 01:08:00 You can't take them out of your ecosystem. So that's why you're seeing the IBM's Oracle. Cisco, like we just talked about Cisco and blah blah blah blah. It's at all time highs now. So it's like they're all experiencing Renaissance, but grandpa's favorite pigs are doing really well. But also the kids picks, CrowdStrike, CloudFlare, Palantir, Service Down, they're also doing really well. Everyone's happy, grandpa and the kids. All right. Maybe a good way to end this conversation is Jeremy Grantham's quarterly letter from 2017.

Starting point is 01:08:31 Joe, why are we talking about this? I thought it was fascinating because, and your interview with him was awesome by the way, I know when he was on. Thank you. I just, from a value manager, because I'm not just the stubborn only want to listen to growth people I love listening to value people whether it's Bill Miller grant them people again super smart

Starting point is 01:08:51 They have a little bit more sober view. Yeah I want to hear the other side and I and he and he basically was making the point when he and I'm paraphrasing this Letter it just really resonated with me ten years ago is that when he got into the game and studied Benjamin Graham and all this stuff, the average PE of the S&P was around 13 or so and it always kept reverting to the mean. But then if he stubbornly stuck with that, he would have ruined his entire career because one of those slides shows that pre, I think it was pre-19, I don't know. John, chart 21 please, or 20?

Starting point is 01:09:26 97, I think it was. Are you talking about margins? No, the one before that. The average PE of the S&P, it's the first one. Okay, John, chart 19. It's the first one on the list there. Yeah, so talk through it, Joe. Yeah, basically he's saying that if he just,

Starting point is 01:09:39 if he went with what was historical, it would have ruined his whole career. So pre-1997, the average PE was 14. And if that was all you knew, and then you saw all of a sudden, stocks are trading at 20 times, and now the average 1996 to today is 24 times, you would have been left in the dust.

Starting point is 01:09:57 That's exactly his point. So when Paul Tudor Jones says, you have to adapt, evolve or die, I think the key word is adapt. And what I love about what Grantham did is he's like, look, if I was stubborn and only went with pre 1997 average PE and it always reverted back to that line, when it got below that it was great value,

Starting point is 01:10:14 when it got above that, well, something changed. Something changed. So from 96, 97 afterwards, you're used to the PE being 14, it goes almost 24, that's a substantial change. Well, here's what changed. Next chart, please. And what changed was profit margins. Well, why did profit margins?

Starting point is 01:10:29 One of the things he talks about, and this is an example with the Shiller PE and the equilibrium, the next one that was profit margins is that corporations got more efficient. Technology. Technology. Things, you know, again, productivity. So profit margins was part of the reason.

Starting point is 01:10:44 He also gets into interest rates as well and leverage and birth rates. It's a pretty deep piece, but the next slide on profit margins shows that we can justify that PEs are going to be higher because the profit margins are better. So you're going to get what you pay for. But this is what I'm getting at is that we might have this conversation 10 years from now and the average PE of the SMP could be 30 for the next 10 years. And someone will say, that is ridiculous. That's insane.

Starting point is 01:11:14 That's not what I studied in my business school and my MBA says otherwise. But Grantham could have done the same thing. If you told them a long time ago, the PE was going to go from 14 to 25, you would have said, that's ridiculous. You could see it go higher. So you absolutely could. Investing, the way that it was taught to the Grantham's generation is that we are investing not just in pieces of paper, we are actually investing in companies. And you have to look at the ratios because this is shorthand for if I'm buying the business just flip the PE It's an earnings yield. You have to earn some reasonable rate of return

Starting point is 01:11:49 I agree the thing that people couldn't nobody could have foreseen going forward Was that the yield today of three was gonna grow to five to six to seven? Because the earnings growth is so explosive and the margins are sustainable and defensible and not only that, they were accelerating. And so technology has had a high bar for the last 10 years. Fang was coined in what 2017? Like it had been hot, but the bar just kept getting raised and they kept going over it and over it and over it.

Starting point is 01:12:21 And where does it end? Obviously, who knows? I'm saying you have to be open-minded to change. You have to be able to adapt. Because if Grantham didn't adapt, he's like, I would have been smoked, and he's viewed as one of the best value investors, in fact, one of the best investors ever.

Starting point is 01:12:37 And I'm saying that it's not going to happen, because someone's going to listen to this, who's an old-school value person, and say, you're saying the PE of the S&P is going to be at 28 or 30 for the next 10 years? I'm not saying it's going to listen to this, who's an old school value person, say, you're saying that PE of the SMP is going to be at 28 or 30 for the next 10 years. I'm not saying it's going to, I'm saying if it does, don't sit there and fight the tape and fight the market. You have to be able to be open-minded.

Starting point is 01:12:53 So Joe, when this bull market ends, I was about to say if and when, because it will end eventually. I'll be crying under my bed. And it might be at 27 or 28 or 34, or who the fuck knows. Right. You will, I know you will know what to do.

Starting point is 01:13:05 Now I'm not saying that you're gonna call the top, but you will see the change in character. You will see the distribution. You will see earnings declining and stocks falling soon. Yeah, leaders breaking down. You will protect yourself. All of that stuff, yeah. What are you going to do?

Starting point is 01:13:17 And how are you going to know when we are approaching, and I know nobody can add, but how are you gonna know when like we're like, all right, this is getting stupid? That's a great question. First off, I think there's going to be multiple derivatives of AI. I think he mentioned it earlier on the show where like right now it's just enterprise AI. There's going to be a physical AI. There's going to be a genetic AI. There's going to be so many different derivatives that if this pop pocket is looking inflated, there's going

Starting point is 01:13:43 to be a next pocket that's really being underappreciated because nobody knows the timing of that transition. So I think an example is like, if things get inflated, like let's just say it's 2030 and it's over 30 times earnings and a lot of these companies, all my holdings are like a pound tier, for example, what am I going to do? I'm probably going to start becoming a little defensive with some maturity names. Like I'm going to be buying the Googles out there, the Amazons.

Starting point is 01:14:06 You're going to buy Apple. Do you sell some if the position gets too big? Never. I never sell. But you know what? You're a young man. That's right. I also have a healthy DCA plan.

Starting point is 01:14:15 So like right now I haven't bought in six weeks. I'm this, I bought, I love to buy when the blood is in the water. Like I love it when it's red. DCA with your stocks or with indices? With my portfolio stocks. So like I think when there's max FUD, like when there's VIX is at 50 handle,

Starting point is 01:14:32 I'd never like to have cash. I'm getting in because I'm very confident in these things long-term, their structural shifts. But I know I underscore, I'm underscoring a digestion period that's gonna be multi-years. I don't think there's going to be like a 2022 pullback of 70, 60%. That was gnarly.

Starting point is 01:14:50 I think there's going to be a dead five years. I think there's going to be a digestion period to let the multiples catch up to the stock price. I think during that digestion period is where you can really capitalize on maybe some other hot pockets that weren't getting the attention right now. Like space. Or the winners might separate themselves. Yeah, winners and pretenders. But like-

Starting point is 01:15:09 Joe, do you think that this could end in a digestion period? Doesn't it have to end in a boom and a bust or not necessarily? It usually does with, you know, where you just get an acceleration period and your neighbor and the mailman and your neighbor's dog and everyone's making money. We're not there. I don't think we're there yet because again, I'm not going by one poker game that my friend plays in, but when they're all like... But there is one poker game.

Starting point is 01:15:32 When they're all shorting everything. When institutions are like, I don't like this, I'm not... And they're reluctant to get back in. And when everyone's like, bubble, bubble, bubble, you know, that whole line is a bubble's asset class that goes up that you don't own because no one's saying it's a bubble if you own it. It's people. So it can go on again. Moves can go on much longer than we can expect. And if you do see a period where in 99, the Qs were up 92% and as like 100 is up, that's an index. The average stock doubled. If something like that happens,

Starting point is 01:16:04 then you're, I'll be here telling you you got to take profits If you don't then you're gonna see it because I don't want people if we do see an accelerated bull market That's really starts accelerate You know as I say you got to ring the register take some profits along the way Because otherwise you're gonna ride it all the way up and ride it all the way down Yeah, so you have to be able to manage risk if you're trading individual stocks. All right. Joe, you were phenomenal as always. Shay, excellent appearance as a first timer.

Starting point is 01:16:29 Thanks for having me. I appreciate it. Thanks for having me. It was awesome. OK, before we let you guys go, what are we looking forward to for the summer? It's July 4th weekend. What do you got? You got any good plans?

Starting point is 01:16:39 Anything you're excited about? Flying back to LA tonight. Probably going to Newport Beach. That's usually the scene. My fiance's friends has a boat there. Might be doing that. Nice. Are you excited about? Flying back to LA tonight. Probably going to Newport Beach. That's usually the scene. My fiance's friends has a boat there. Might be doing that. Nice. Are you from LA?

Starting point is 01:16:49 Angelino. All life, yeah. So gonna be doing that and taking advantage of the time off because gotta say, I did six TV empiricins this week. Good for you. It's fricking disgusting in New York, Al. Like, oh my God. I had to Uber 0.4 miles away

Starting point is 01:17:03 because I didn't trust my sweat right now. Like I was like, I felt awful requesting an Uber, but that's how I did it. Yeah, you gotta do what you gotta do. Job? Humble brag, Andrea Agassi agreed to do my podcast. Get the, how? What?

Starting point is 01:17:15 Yeah. Wow. I ran into him and I, long story short, my friend, she pushed me. I'm like, I'm so nervous. He's a tennis icon. He was sitting there playing slots in Vegas. He's from Vegas.

Starting point is 01:17:24 He's really rough there. So Joe is very humble and modest, but's a tennis icon. He was sitting there playing slots in Vegas. He's from Vegas. He's the only one who grew up there. So Joe is very humble and modest, but I will say this. You are one of these weirdly connected people. I don't know how you do it. I don't know either. This is one I don't know. I've never met him. He's born and raised in Vegas.

Starting point is 01:17:37 My friend. But you know what it is? I think you're very non-threatening. So I told Josh's story, and he really made a funny point. I asked him, I just said, look, my friend, she pushed me to go say hi. I just said, I'm a big fan and I appreciate what you do for the community. He's given millions of dollars to schools and everything. And then I was like, well, while I'm here, I'm like, do you want to do my podcast?

Starting point is 01:17:56 And Josh goes, she just went from, I don't want to bother you to, can I have two hours of your time? And he said, look, I have other friends I have to do, but if you're local and you have a studio here, I support you, because that's where I record, where you've been kind enough to do my podcast and I've got to get you on as well. But he's like, I'll do it later in the fall,

Starting point is 01:18:15 I have to do some others, because I have to do theirs before yours. And he did Andy Roddick's podcast just a couple weeks ago. Holy shit, unbelievable. So anyways, something to look forward to. Joe, how do people find you on the interwebs? JoeFommy.com at JFommy, and the podcast is Joe's Happy Hour on YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts.

Starting point is 01:18:33 All right, Shay, you're blowing up. Where do people find you? Stock Savvy Shy on X, but also- Wait, say that one more time? Stock Savvy Shy. Stock Savvy Shy, okay. I've been calling you Shay this whole time. It's all good.

Starting point is 01:18:43 Okay. Where else? Savvy, shy. Okay. I've been calling you shay this whole time. It's all good. Okay. Where else? FuturumEquities.com. That's a new research firm that we're starting, the democratization of research for everyone. So follow the Twitter account, go on the website. We will launch a lot of... Futurum AI-15 list.

Starting point is 01:19:03 We're going to launch those lists every single month. Listen, your enthusiasm is palpable. I love to say so. Congrats on all your success so far. Thank you. Thank you. All right. That is it for us.

Starting point is 01:19:12 Thank you, Duncan, John, for keeping you late on the Thursday afternoon. Am I the worst? You guys thought you were getting off this week, didn't you? OK. Nicole, Daniel, the whole crew, thank you for watching. We will see you next time.

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