The Current - Alberta conservatives push back against separatists

Episode Date: June 3, 2026

A new group of conservative politicians and academics is pushing back against the separatist movement in Alberta. They call themselves Lead Not Leave and describe themselves as "frustrated federalists.” We’re joined by two of the group's founders, former Alberta finance minister Travis Toews and Jared Wesley of the University of Alberta to discuss the source of Alberta's grievances, and how they plan to counter the separatist movement.

Imagine you've been charged with a crime, and the only witness pointing the finger at you isn't even human. I remember thinking, are you serious? What is this thing? It's something artificial, created by a mysterious Canadian. And it's coming for all of us. A life-defining technology. Crime as we know it will never be the same. I'm like, oh my God, he's lying.

From CBC's Uncover, The Expert Witness. Available now on CBC Listen or wherever you get your podcasts. This is a CBC podcast. Hello, I'm Matt Galloway, and this is the current podcast. In less than five months, Albertans will get a chance to vote on a series of referendum questions, including whether to start the formal process of a vote to separate from Canada. With me now are two of the founders of a new group called Lead, Not Leave,

which brings together right-leaning Albertans who want to stay in Canada. Travis Taves is a former finance minister and president of the Treasury Board for the province of Alberta. He also ran against Danielle Smith for the leadership of Alberta's United Conservative Party. He's in our Calgary studio, and Jared Wesley is a professor of political science at the University of Alberta. He's also the lead researcher for a project called Common Ground, an in-depth multi-year study of Albertaan political culture, normally based in Edmonton. We've reached him today in Ottawa. Gentlemen, thank you so much for being here this morning.

Yeah, my pleasure. Morning, Mark. Travis, let me start with you. You're a former finance minister, as we mentioned. Danielle Smith has come out with a, I guess, a ballpark of estimate of what would cost for Alberta to separate from Canada. She threw out the figure $400 billion up front, $25 to $50 billion a year in annual costs. What do you think about that? How realistic are those numbers?

Well, I can't validate those numbers this morning, but I can certainly confirm that Alberta would be faced with very significant costs if it would go the way of independence. I mean, right now we do make typically a net fiscal contribution to the rest of the country because of our outsized economy, GDP per capita. In Alberta, we make a contribution $15 to $20 billion in terms of a net contribution to the rest of Canada. there would be many, many costs that we would now be fully responsible for if we go the way of independence, if we would become a sovereign nation. And, you know, we can think of those. We would be fully responsible for a Department of Defense, for, you know, foreign service, embassies, border security and customs, a currency, you know, Federal Reserve, Bank of Alberta, if you will. And I could go on and on. There would be, you know, very, very significant costs that Alberta would incur both one time and then on an annual basis to operate a sovereign nation.

And it's important that Albertans understand that. And there will be an expert panel. We're told that we'll be set up to actually try to nail down some more precise figures that that's expected to come in the coming months. And yet already, Travis, I want to ask you about this, already the separatist movement is saying, this is fear mongering. These are scare tactics bringing, putting, putting the, these costs on the table like this. What do you say to that? Well, the concept that we're going to incur and be responsible for additional costs, providing, you know, ultimately institutions that would be consistent, you know, with sovereignty is a fact.

It's not, that's not fear-mongering. It's important that Albertans understand that. And there will be a fair bit of work, including work done by, you know, part of our team here at Lead Not Lead, around, you know, working to develop those numbers, develop those projections. It will be, you know, data-driven. We've got a number of very reputable researchers within our group, academics, including Jared, who's on the show today. And so that work will be very important. It'll be important that Albertans are informed as they head to October 19th.

Jared, let me bring into the conversation. Western alienation is almost as old as Canada itself. which is probably a sad statement, but a reality, going back, you know, Bible Bill Aberhart, the West wants in before the West wants out now. What do you think is different about this movement in this time? Yeah, this isn't your grandparents' Western alienation. I think they're in times past, even a generation ago. It was about railing against Alberta being held back from its full potential and full prosperity.

now there's a palpable sense among folks in the separatist movement, particularly, that Alberta is now falling behind, or at least they are falling behind, where their parents were, where they expected to be at this point in their lives and their careers. And that creates a really, you know, a really attractive mentality for far right populist movements. We've seen this in the United States and in Europe and the separatist movement in Alberta today is just that. It's a far right populist movement that's capitalizing on those fears and anxieties. And as Trevor, sorry, as Travis hinted, you know, playing a little bit fast and loose with facts in order to attract those folks. And that's what lead, not leave is trying to do is to say, you know, these grievances and these feelings are real. They're not illegitimate. You know, we can lecture these folks about how they hold privilege in grander society.

I don't think that gets us very far. I think we need to be rational about this and talk about how those grievances. will not be solved by leaving Canada. But do you see the movement, Jared, do you see that this movement going mainstream, that once time people would have seen it as more of a marginal movement that has gone mainstream and is picking up momentum?

Yeah, actually, that's why I'm in Ottawa this week is to present a paper based on our common ground research that shows that separatism has become part of the conversation in Alberta. It's become accepted as part of our political discourse. but popularity has not increased. So it's one of those situations where, you know, the typical Albertan now feels like it's okay to talk about these things, but they're still not persuaded that separatism is the best route forward.

Now, it's moved into the mainstream or as some folks say, the Overton window has shifted a bit, and that is a necessary step to making a movement popular, but it's not a sufficient one. And so part of what we're trying to do with this group lead, not leave, is to talk to people about how, you know, we can talk about separatism. This is a free and democratic society, but let's do so on a rational basis.

Travis Taves, I was reading a comment in a newspaper article just from an everyday Albertan when asked about, you know, would you vote to yes to continue this process? And his quote was, I want to scare Ottawa. So tell me about that. Tell me about that sentiment and the impact that that's going to have driving this separatist movement. Well, you know, there are many folks who would hold that view in Alberta. Look, we've come through like 10 really, in my view, a very egregious years relative to federal leadership, relative to our federal government. I'm speaking about the treaty years, quite frankly. And those years where really here in Western Canada, certainly within Alberta and our energy industry,

we just experienced one setback after another, many of them as a result of, again, egregious federal policy that was not only encouraging to our primary industry here, our primary engine of wealth creation, the energy industry, but it was obstructionist. And, you know, we can talk about the emissions cap that. But we're also seeing. Prime Minister Truder brought in. Right. And that that is on the record. But we're also seeing right now with Prime Minister Mark Carney, he is making overtures. He is making deals with Alberta.

What impact do you think that that will have on that sense of grievance that currently exists in Alberta? Well, it's true. Prime Minister Carney has chosen a different direction. And there's, you know, I expect a few reasons for that. But I want to get back to the frustration that Albertans are feeling. There's 10 years of scar tissue around a liberal government. And they're, you know, really obstructionist policies, many obstructionist policies towards the West, towards Alberta, and towards our energy industry. And so Mr. Carney is also a leader of the Liberal Party.

And again, there's some scar tissue. There's some skepticism. Now, it's clear. Certainly from my perspective, that Prime Minister Carney has chosen a different track. And likely for a couple of reasons. Number one, Prime Minister Carney during the election campaign, made sense. some very significant promises around the economy, economic promises to Canadians. And I'm pretty certain that Prime Minister Carney knows that in order to deliver on those promises, he will need

a vibrant energy industry. He talks about Canada becoming a energy superpower. And so clearly, he's going to need to move on a number of the egregious policies, move off of the number of the egregious policies that his predecessor brought in. So we have seen. We've seen the emissions cap, you know, killed. We've seen an MOU signed with Alberta, and that's a good start. That MOU will have a very positive impact, particularly around the clean energy regulations, walking back the stringency, taking a much more pragmatic view around delivering on methane emissions.

We've seen the agreement to build a pipeline to the coast. Again, it's going to need a private sector proponent, but there seems to be a willingness and a recognition of the importance of that venture. That is a different direction. However, Albertans, I think, have a level of skepticism because of the previous 10 years. Imagine you've been charged with a crime, and the only witness pointing the finger at you isn't even human. I remember thinking, are you serious?

is. What is this thing? It's something artificial, created by a mysterious Canadian. And it's coming for all of us. A life-defining technology. Crime as we know it will never be the same. I'm like, oh my God, he's lying. From CBC's Uncover, The Expert Witness. Available now on CBC Listen or wherever you get your podcasts. Jared, I want to get your view on that. Do you see the interests right now? Now is this a movement to scare Ottawa or are people really have a serious desire to leave? I think a lot of folks are motivated by that. And in fact, I saw some new separatist billboards that are going up across the province that are saying send Ottawa a message this fall. And as the prime minister has said, as our team has said, that's a very dangerous bluff to make.

We've seen how that kind of rhetoric has led to a sudden groundswell of support for votes like Brexit. And so I'm with Travis. There's a palpable sense of frustration in Alberta. But I, you know, I've been in the field for the last six years with our common ground team. Fiosnagogovsky leads our viewpoint Alberta exercise surveys. And I can tell you, I don't think Albertans feel angry. There are certainly are a small number, probably about 15 or 20 percent that would vote yes to leave Canada if you were given a ballot tomorrow. But a lot of Albertans just feel disappointed.

and frustrated. And a lot of folks from outside of Alberta call Alberta the spoiled child of Confederation. I think Albertans see themselves, a lot of us do, as kind of the jilted lover of Confederation. There's a sense that there's unrequited love there, that when things are going well, Albertans are more than happy to do their share and contribute to the rest of the country and the economy, but when things aren't going well, when there's an oil downturn, for example, They don't feel like the rest of Canada has our back.

And they don't feel like the rest of Canada is supportive of Alberta doing more for the family of Confederation. And if you wrap your head around that kind of mentality, then, you know, lecturing Albertans about how they have it so well. And everything's just fine. And why don't you just, you know, sit down and shut up, as some folks are saying from central Canada. You see it's completely counterproductive. And now we can talk about whether that is a valid set of feelings. but, you know, your judgment of Albertans is not their reality. And I think we need to meet folks where they are.

Well, as we mentioned, you're in Ottawa today and you're going to be speaking to central Canadians. So what role do you see Canadians outside of Alberta playing in the upcoming months leading to this referendum? A lot of people are asking, what can we do? And some folks are worried about being seen like they're interfering. And certainly there are some in Alberta who would look at central Canadians, particularly lecturing Alberta. about their place in Confederation as being counterproductive, and I'd agree with that. But if Albertans do feel underappreciated, then now's the time for the rest of Canada's to recognize. You know, Alberta does make contributions to this country, that Alberta's gains are Canada's gains.

And on the flip side, that Alberta's losses are Canada's losses. So I'd encourage folks in the rest of Canada, if you do appreciate having Alberta part of Confederation, then speak out. Do that on social media. Call up your friends and family in Alberta and talk to them about how to you. you'd love for them to stay. This is a real vote that's happening in October. It's not unlike the types of votes that Quebec has had twice. And it's important for the rest of Canada to have a say in that.

Yeah. And as a Quebecer, I live through those. And I do remember Canadians coming to plus to Canada in the dying days of the referendum in the 90s and saying, you know, our Canada includes Quebec. So there is that sort of emotional component to it. Travis, I want to ask you about the pure politics of Danielle Smith. The UCP president, the United Conservative Party president, Rob Smith, believes the majority of party members will vote against staying in Canada, the party that Danielle Smith leaves. So how does a so-called federalist leader lead a party that has this strong separatist movement inside it? Well, with some challenge.

That's to be polite. Let's face it, these are not easy days for our Premier with this issue, given the folks who now, you know, the demographic that holds UCP memberships in Alberta. Now, that's not to say not every UCP members is a separatist, far from it, far from it. However, it's a tough spot for the Premier. But the Premier's come out very clearly over the last week, stating that both her government, her caucus, and her party is supportive of Alberta remaining within Canada and will, you know, which I believe her words, were advocate for Alberta to stay over the next five months. Those were strong words, certainly stronger words than we've heard from the Premier in the past.

And I know there's a, you know, a large contingent certainly of UCP members who, while they may be frustrated, as we are, as so many of us are with the 10 years of liberal leadership under Prime Minister Trudeau, while we're frustrated, we believe that there's many of us that believe that Alberta's best future is to remain within Canada. And so you're seeing, now that the question's been called for October, you're seeing, you know, these groups pop up such as lead not leave and others, where you've conservative-minded Albertan standing up and saying, look, we share the frustration. We've, you know, in my case, you know, we've seen the frustration, we've lived the frustration. Look, we've felt all the frustration. But again, I deeply believe our best future, Alberta's best future is to remain within Confederation. And so there will be a big push. What will be important? And, you know, Jared mentioned this, and I believe this is fundamental, that Albertans

are going to need to be well informed going into this question. So far, you know, the separatists have largely held the mic. And we've heard a lot of, you know, sloganeering and quite frankly, rhetoric from that side and not a lot of, you know, informed, data-driven research, so where Albertans can draw some. some rational conclusions. And that's going to be important work. Lead not leave will be a contributor to that effort.

Jared, you were mentioning before about the role that you see everyday Canadians playing in the coming months. I wonder about the U.S. where in the Trump administration, the Treasury Secretary said that Alberta is a natural partner for the U.S. Are you concerned about some outside influence, and namely the influence of the U.S., in tipping the balance in this referendum? Yeah, I'm more worried about the subtler influence through social media propaganda and things that we're already seeing.

Yeah, tell me about that. What are you seeing and what are you fearing? Well, I mean, there's other academics and other parts of Canada have done research that shows not just the United States, but also from Europe, from Russia, you know, fake YouTube videos that are making the rounds and trying to influence those folks in Alberta who might see. a vote to continue the conversation this fall as being productive. But the overt, you know, influence of the United States is actually counterproductive. Our research shows quite clearly Albertans, as much as the rest of Canada, are very, very much opposed to being part of the United States to joining as a 51st state. And the separatists themselves have a, have a difficult time with that because they've already publicized, some of them have publicized their deep connections

with the State Department, right? That they've gone down to Washington and met with those folks. They've got guaranteed loans and so on. And Albertans are, I think, wise enough. And hopefully through the work that we're doing at Lead Not Leave, will realize that, you know, an independent Alberta won't remain independent for long. They'll fall into the orbit of the United States even more than Canada is. But isn't that desirable for some people in Alberta? A very, very small proportion.

I mean, our estimates are that only about one in five separatists actually want to become part of the United States. That's interesting. They actually do want to be an independent country. And again, part of our job at Lead Not Leaves to show them that's just not a realistic venture. That leaving Canada means falling into the U.S. orbit and likely being a policy taker from them from a, you know, a government that's even further away philosophically and geographically than Ottawa. Travis Taves, let me put you on the spot. I'm giving you 30 seconds. Last word to you. What does Canada mean to you? Well, Canada means a lot to me. I mean, you know, our shared history amongst the provinces.

The ideals that our forefathers have fought for the sacrifice that has been made over the generations to ultimately ensure that future generations of Canadians, regardless of where they lived, whether it was in British Columbia or Alberta or on the East Coast, that Albertans could live with freedom and with a high degree of prosperity. Those ideals and principles have been fought for. There's been great sacrifice made. And so the concept of Canada is an important one to me. I have family across this nation. And I want to remain within Confederation. The folks who advocate independence typically take an economic argument. And I would say this.

I have children and grandchildren that will be making their home in Alberta. and I deeply, deeply believe that their best economic future, that the future that offers them the most prosperity, hope and freedom, I believe will be Alberta remaining as a part of Confederation. Travis Taves, thank you so much for your time. Travis Taves, former finance minister and president, Treasury Board of Alberta. Jared Wesley also joined us. Jared, thank you for your time.

A professor of political science at the University of Alberta. You've been listening to the current podcast. My name is Matt Galloway. Thanks for listening. I'll talk to you soon. For more CBC podcasts, go to cbc.ca.ca slash podcasts.