The Current - Alberta separatists unveil ballot question, call for 2025 referendum

Episode Date: May 13, 2025

"Do you agree that the province shall become a sovereign country and cease to be a province of Canada?" That’s the ballot question proposed by the Alberta Prosperity Project, a group pushing for a referendum on Alberta leaving Canada by the end of the year. We look at support for independence in the province — and why the APP says they’re confident that Premier Danielle Smith will eventually join their cause.

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This is a CBC Podcast. Hello, I'm Matt Galloway and this is the current podcast. It states quite simply, do you agree that the province of Alberta shall become a sovereign country and cease to be a province of Canada, yes or no? The Alberta lawyer pulled a blue provincial flag off an easel at yesterday's news conference in Calgary, revealing the Alberta Prosperity Project's

proposed ballot question. There is nothing that Mark Carney can offer Alberta that will exceed the value of an end to all federal taxation in the province of Alberta. No more federal income tax, no more federal carbon tax, no more federal corporate tax, no more federal capital gains tax, no more federal excise tax on fuel, no more federal estate taxes, no taxes of any sort levied by the federal government. The Alberta Prosperity Project says it has seen a groundswell of interest since the federal

election, with more than 220,000 pledges of support on its website. The group is seeking Alberta independence. It wants a referendum on separation by the end of this year. But the Premier of Alberta, Danielle Smith, says there is still a lot of work to be done before that referendum could happen. Having people sign up on a website, saying that they will ultimately sign a petition

is one thing. Getting the physical signatures signed up is another. That's why we have to wait for the process to play out. But I've made my position clear. I support a sovereign Alberta within a united Canada, and it's my job to see if we can get a new deal with Ottawa so that I can convince more Albertans I've made my position clear. I support a sovereign Alberta within a united Canada, and it's my job to see if we can get a new deal with Ottawa so that I can convince more Albertans to feel the same.

So will they or won't they? Erika Barutas is the founding president of the United Conservative Party. She co-hosts the Alberta Politics podcast, The Discourse. Erika, good morning. Good morning. The Alberta Prosperity Project

describes its separation pitch as a serious as a heart attack. How serious would you say the separatist movement in Alberta is right now? Well, I would say that it is the most serious it has ever been. Since the results of the federal election, which are democratic, I get that there is a growing frustration with our relationship that we've had for decades with Ottawa. And so I do think it's serious.

I think that the Premier is doing the right thing in listening to Albertans because this can't be dismissed, but there is, as she's laid out, a due process for that to actually come to fruition. What is the pitch as you understand it? I mean, they're talking about no, we just heard the long list of no federal taxes, but also that a separate Alberta would get to keep

its Canadian passport and entitlements from the Canadian pension plan. So what is the pitch to Albertans? Yeah, I definitely think the, and I'm not a part of the prosperity group in any way, shape or form, that they're kind of giving a little bit of falsehood, right? I think if we do go to a conversation of independence or separation, there is a lot more pieces than that to sort out. What is our banking system? What is our infrastructure that we'd

have to set up? Do we have military? What is our pension? Are policing? A lot of other things that weren't named in that laundry list, they were very much focusing on the taxes that would stay in Alberta and not go to Ottawa. But that's easier said than done when you've got to think about all the other things you would have to pay for in your independent state. Pete You say you aren't a member of the Alberta Prosperity Project. Who is? Who's running this? There's a few folks. I mean, don't get me wrong, I get their emails. But there is a group of individuals that have kind of been at the helm for quite some time. And it's

no surprise that this is a group that's leading it because they were also a part of the Sovereignty Act or the Sovereign Alberta within a United Canada Act, which it now exists as. And so there is a group that is there and there is a larger group beyond this one group that's having petitions of who is frustrated, myself included with her relationship with Ottawa. But there are, I mean, you're the founding president of the UCP. There are a number of members from the UCP that are at the center or at the very least deeply involved in this, right? Absolutely, but I wanted to be clear that I have noticed for the first time in a long time, people reaching out to me that do not hold a UCB membership, that do not identify as maybe conservative,

provincially or federally, but since this federal election have reached out, including my native province of Saskatchewan. So the West, there is legitimate frustration, there's legitimate desire for a quote unquote, new deal with Ottawa. And I'm happy that the premier is fighting for that because I'd like to exhaust all resources

before getting to an independent conversation. But this goes far beyond party lines and it is kind of more mainstream Alberta of people that just want us to be equal. I mean, the polling suggests that just 19% of those who are polled want Alberta to leave. More than half of those want to stay. What is your understanding of the Premier, Danielle Smith, and what she's doing? She lowered the threshold for a referendum that came right after the federal election.

What was she doing there? Yeah. Well, I will say I was a part of, obviously, as president when Jason Kenney was running and became a premier, he introduced recall legislation. He introduced citizen-led initiatives. Those thresholds, to be honest, were too high. I also know as former principal secretary to Danielle Smith that these were things that

she had talked about wanting to address. We saw it in Calgary where there was a recall petition for Jodie Gondek. The thresholds were far too high with 600,000 eligible voters as opposed to say the general population or registered voters, I should say. So I do believe- The belief from some is that she did this to save her own political bacon, that she had to do this because there is a constituency, perhaps a significant constituency within her own party that if you mentioned Jason Kenney, if she didn't move on this, she would end up with the same fate as Jason Kenney, which would be being tossed out of the party.

Yeah, and I don't completely agree with that because I know that this was on the legislative agenda for quite some time. Now, to your point, the timing is suspicious because it did come right after the federal election. I appreciate that unlike Tug Ford, she wasn't doing a bunch of stuff against the conservatives or that could hurt anyone in the federal election. And so she waited till after, which I respect. Now, call a spade a spade. If you put this in and you know that the timing does lead to, like you said, that question, whether it's intended or not, I do think that they could have just said, listen, you know, this was coming,

but we held it and now we're dropping it now. We understand that this is the perception, you know, and I do think though that the frustration has grown. It's grown from, you know, 25%, which is kind of always standard in Alberta to about 36, 37% of individuals wanting to, to have the conversation about independence. But what sort of pressure is she under from her own party? She was in an event, uh, at a writing

association last week in which she was asked that question, do you want Alberta in or out? She wouldn't answer the question. She talked about negotiation. She was heckled. And the leader of the organization said, she's either going to decide whether she comes over to our side or not.

And if she doesn't, there will be a problem. What sort of pressure is Danielle Smith under? Well, I've been a part of the conservative movement for a long time. And, you know, there is always that theory that we eat our own and that there is consequences. But to be honest, I think that there's enough individuals within the UCP. She just came out of a leadership where she had 94.5% support. So I think we're a far way away from her as a leadership challenge within the party. But she has a tough job,

as does Prime Minister Mark Carney, right? She is here to unite Alberta, and that is her role and responsibility. And he's got a tough job right now of uniting Canada. So I don't envy either of them, but I don't think that they're in a position where they have to pick a lane. They've got to do what they're supposed to do and work together to find a solution that makes us not ever get to that type of conversation. But what sort of gamble is she taking here? I mean, people have said she's playing with matches in a dry field. You look at what happened with David Cameron, the former prime minister of the UK, who floated

the idea of a referendum. Suddenly the UK is out of the European Union. Do you worry about the gamble and the risk that she's taking here? Lauren Henry I would think it was a risk if she went off the premise that she was given a mandate by Albertans to separate, right? This isn't a Quebec situation where in 2023 she did not run on this. And she said that, she's also said, I do not want to separate my job as premier and rightfully so, that's what her mandate is, is to try and find a relationship or a path forward

with Ottawa. Do you think if there was a referendum, do you think she would campaign on behalf of keeping Alberta within Canada? I don't know do you think she would campaign on behalf of Keeping Alberta Within Canada? I don't know if I think she should campaign one way or not. She's premier. And so I actually like that she's removed herself from it and given it to the process. That to me is the right democratic move.

I think there's people that will look for her to have an answer. I am not one of them. But there will be a time, I think, if we can't get a deal or a compromise or a negotiation. Alberta has been pretty clear what we want from the federal government. And so I think the ball is actually in Mark Carney's court, not Danielle Smith's. Just before I let you go, do you think that there would be this conversation if the conservatives won? Part of this is about that issue of democracy.

You said this right off the top, that there was a democratic vote. Is that how democracy works? That if you don't get what you want, you threaten to leave? You know what? No, because I think that this has been decades upon decades of Western alienation. I mean, I know Dr. Jared Wesley is coming on next. He was my TA, so that might be dating both of us. But Western alienation is a cleavage

and a regional issue that we have and we've had for a long time. We saw it under Prime Minister Harper, didn't give Alberta everything they want. So I still think that even if Pierre was successful, there would have been challenges. I mean, CPP wasn't something that he supported when Alberta was exploring that, right? Like it wasn't going to be sunshine and rainbows always. I think the one thing that he made clear was that he would get out

of the provincial jurisdiction, which all premiers have agreed was infringed upon by the premier's prime minister. So no, I don't think that it would have been, there wouldn't still be frustrated sentiment because that deal still needs to change. You have two new leaders from Trudeau. I hope Mark Carney listens. I hope he comes to the table and I hope that, and he said a lot of great things. I think if he puts actions into, or his words into actions, I think that as a country will be okay. But I just think the growing sentiment was obvious after the election. Pete It's really good to talk to you. Thank you very much. Erica Brutus Yeah, thank you. Have a good morning. Pete And you, Erica Brutus is a former president of the United Conservative Party.

Hey there, I'm David Common. If you're like me, there are things you love about living in the GTA, and things that drive you absolutely crazy. Every day on This Is Toronto, we connect you to what matters most about life in the GTA, the news you gotta know, and the conversations your friends will be talking about. Whether you listen on a run through your neighbourhood or while sitting in the parking lot that is the 401, check out This Is Toronto, wherever you get your podcasts. She mentioned Jared Wesley.

He's been listening in, professor of political science at the University of Alberta. Jared, good morning to you. Good morning. How real is this? Erica talks about the fact that Western alienation isn't new, but this is different. How real is this moment, do you think?

Well, the quality of Western alienation is different in a few ways, but I have to disagree with a lot of the conversation around this. Our team, Common Ground, has been in the field for the last five years with surveys, and we haven't seen any concrete evidence that support for separatism has actually increased. And I'm not saying that it hasn't. I'm just saying that we don't

have any evidence of it in our polling. I think a lot of the polling that's being done by national firms is it lacks a baseline, right? So unlike our team who was there in the aftermath of the 2019 election and sees many of the similar, you know, dynamics that are playing out now as after that election, as you mentioned, because of the Conservative Party of Canada losing. So I think we have to take a bit of a breath and pause and think, is there actually a rise in separatism?

And again, I don't think we have conclusive evidence at this point that there is. What sort of risk do you think the premier is taking in lowering the threshold, the number of signatures required to call a referendum? I think it's a huge risk for reasons that you mentioned. And we have an example of David Cameron's calling of a referendum in the UK. At that time, people that wanted to leave the European Union are about the same level that separatism is in Alberta right now.

And historians will look back at Cameron's decision as a means of kind of calling the bluff of a small fringe element of his own party. Um, and, uh, and he lost that bet. And most of us here in Alberta are hoping that the premier doesn't lose the bet the same way that he did. What sort of political tightrope is she walking? Because she says she's not a separatist, but she's also making it easier for a referendum to be called.

And those who are leading this initiative say she needs to get on their side or else. Yeah, this is the thing to know about the, the separatism movement in Alberta. It's always been fractious. Um, so it won't surprise you, uh, or folks that are paying close attention to this, that after the press conference yesterday by the Alberta Prosperity Project, Twitter lit up with opponents from all across the spectrum, the spectrum of separatism, folks that don't think the question was worded

properly, folks that don't want Alberta to be an independent country, but rather be America's 51st state, folks that don't like the leadership of that party, or that particular project, and they want to lean towards leadership of the Republican Party of Alberta, which is new. And this isn't anything that's unique to separatism specifically. This is a far right movement and like far right movements. It's led by folks that don't like authority, right? By very definition. They don't like to follow.

They like to go their own way. And I think the next six to eight months are really gonna be definitive about this movement. Can they actually pull together behind a common leadership that will honestly determine whether they have one single petition? It's not out of the realm of possibility that there are multiple petitions that are going to be circulating across the province in the barbecue circuit this summer. And what does the Premier do with those? That's a big question. They're making the case that there would be

accelerated oil and gas development. It would double within five years. Multiple new pipelines would extend into the United States, but they're also saying that breakaway Alberta would allow people to keep their Canadian passports and CPP entitlements. Square that for me. Yeah, I'm not an economist and I'm also not a

constitutional lawyer, but those things on their face don't seem like they're possible. I mean, just looking at not the outcome of a positive referendum from their perspective, but even the lead up to it, we're going to see a massive exodus of capital from this province. Investment is not likely to increase, it's likely to decrease because of the uncertainty created by this environment. So, the possibility of oil and gas expanding in that kind of environment, I think is a pipe dream, pardon the pun.

But the notion that Alberta Prosperity Project are gonna be the lead negotiators with the government of Canada to get things like a common currency and passports. I think as the premier said herself is putting the cart ahead of the horse. And we still don't know what those negotiations might be.

If the Quebec referendum in 95 was any indication that that would take years. They're talking about an independent Alberta within a year, which again, it's straightened stradulity really. First nations in the province would like a word about that. There has been furious pushback from first

nations. How are indigenous and first nations rights being incorporated into this, as you understand it? Well, first nations leaders have stepped up and they've been very vocal and they are very organized. It won't surprise folks to know that they're actually engaging with people in Quebec and leaders that were part, First Nations leaders that were part of the Quebec resistance in

1995. And it wouldn't surprise me that in the coming weeks and months, we see similar referendums to the ones that the James Bay Cree launched in reaction to the Quebec referendum in that year. And, you know, so there's tremendous pushback. I would say that that pushback is putting a dent in the separatists language around indigenous people being supportive of separation.

One of the lead bullets in their means is usually, we've talked to indigenous people and they're definitely on side with us leaving Canada as well. That's not the case, at least at the leadership level. Let me just ask you, we have a couple of minutes. Let me just ask you two quick things. One is about Pierre Poliev, who's now going to be running in this by-election, whatever it's called, in the riding of Battle River Crowfoot. What sort of position do you think he's going to find himself in when it comes to managing these sentiments? Well, if he's on the ground and he's facing

media questions, it's going to be tough to dodge this one given that this is the talk of Alberta right now aside from the Oilers playoff run. So I think he is going to be facing some important questions. I also think he has a potential leadership role to play here. So I actually disagree with Erica in terms of his position on the CPP. He came out pretty quickly after after Daniel Smith announced that she was moving forward with more plans to set up an Alberta pension plan and withdraw from CPP. He came out publicly and nationally and said no, the CPP is an important part of the Canadian fabric and I

fully fully support it. So I don't want to say this is kind of a Nixon goes to China moment for Poliev, but there is a real possibility here as the most popular politician in Alberta for him to put the separatist camp back in its place where it used to be with the national and provincial party by saying, you know, we stand with a united Canada and separatism has no place in our party. Just in a word or two, finally, we just have a few seconds. Mark Carney's new cabinet will be revealed today. What would you want to hear from the Prime Minister in terms of, if not addressing this and acknowledging this?

I think he's been giving some really good signals and he's been doing that through Dominic LeBlanc, his intergovernmental relations minister as well. He is not going to be taking a hands-off approach to dealing with premiers. He's either gonna be engaging with them bilaterally and inviting them to multilateral tables, which he has done several times to deal with Trump's trade war. So I'm encouraged.

I hope we see more regularization of those meetings and probably some rules that develop around the formation of agendas and so on. I'd love to see him return to joint cabinet meetings in places like Alberta and Saskatchewan. It helps to not only diffuse the situation and improve the image of the federal government out here, but it also creates those opportunities

for folks to get eyeball to eyeball, which we know develops the kind of trust that's missing. Jared, we'll leave it there. It's good to talk to you. Thank you very much. Thanks, Matt. You've been listening to The Current Podcast. My name is Matt Galloway. Thanks for listening. I'll talk to you soon.