The Current - Almost halfway to election day, what have we learned so far?

Episode Date: April 7, 2025

With three weeks until election day, what have we learned about the candidates criss-crossing the country? What are the leaders focused on — and who’s resonating with Canadians? Matt Galloway breaks down what we’ve seen so far with the CBC’s Rosemary Barton and the Toronto Star’s Ryan Tumilty.

How are Canadians bracing for a full-on trade war? Without U.S. buy-in, can Canada really help Ukraine? And is Canadian patriotism messing with conservative strategy? We explore questions like these on Power and Politics, CBC's only political daily. I'm David Cochran. I speak to the key players in the political stories everyone is talking about. You'll hear from those who've got the power, those who want it, and those affected most by it. You can find Power and Politics wherever you get your podcasts, including YouTube.

This is a CBC Podcast. Hello, I'm Matt Galloway, and this is The Current Podcast. We will invest in the entire pipeline of talent from the workers themselves through to the labour unions, through to the post-secondary institutions, through to the employers and the provinces. A Conservative government will cut red tape by 25% over the next two years. We'll impose a two-for-one rule. Every new regulation or rule will have to be matched with eliminating two existing ones.

If any province or municipality wants federal investments, federal funds to build homes, they have to put in place laws that protect renters. If we build a home and there's no rent control and there's affordability there, well, that affordability will evaporate because there's no rent control. Time flies when you're having fun. It is day 16 of the federal election, US tariffs and President Trump still dominating this

campaign. Add in talk of Western secession and candidates being dropped daily. There is a lot to catch up on with our national affairs panel. Rosemary Barton is the CBC's chief political correspondent, host of Rosemary Barton Live. And Ryan Tomalty is a political reporter for the Toronto Star. Good morning to you both. Good morning.

Rosie, I asked you the last time we were chatting, as the campaign was unfolding, what had we learned in the first couple of weeks, perhaps, as that was unfolding? This far in, we're almost halfway. What have we learned so far about the shape of this campaign? Yeah, I mean, we're almost halfway. What have we learned so far about the shape of this campaign? Yeah.

I mean, we are almost halfway cause I am counting the days while having an enormous amount of fun. Um, I think we've learned a couple of things. I think we've learned, um, and I'll start with Mark Carney. We've learned that Mark Carney is not, uh, just, uh, a former central banker and a technocrat.

We we've learned that he is someone who can is not just a former central banker and a technocrat. We've learned that he is someone who can speak at rallies, who can get people enthused and engaged, and we've learned that he has thought, I think, deeply about the plan for this country going forward. And I think on the other side, for Pierre Poiliev, we've learned again that he remains a very focused politician, that he is quite committed to his party's policies that he helped develop, and that in spite of the threat

of Donald Trump, he is really fixated on pushing those ideas forward, perhaps in times to the detriment of his own campaign, but he believes that this is still, the things he's talking about are still the things that Canadians are concerned about. Those are sort of my two takeaways for the big parties anyway. Yeah, I want to pry apart some of those things. Ryan, for you, what have we learned? Yeah, I mean, I think we have learned that Mark Carney has other gears than Central Banker. I think he started this campaign very much really only able to talk about Trump and the

economy and that was fine because that was all anyone was talking about and some days it still is. But he is able to do more. I still think he is a novice politician and we see this a lot. We saw this with the episode with Paul Chang. I think a lot of politicians were stunned to see that he was holding on to that candidate for as long as he did. We see it sometimes where he stumbles, mixing up the names of his candidates and things

like that. So there are still stumbles there. There is still political skills that I think he is learning on the fly, which is incredible considering the fly in this case is running for prime minister of Canada. But yeah, on the same time, I think we are seeing a conservative campaign

that is only very stubbornly sort of moving to the issues that Canadians are most concerned about and is in a lot of ways still trying to fight an election That we all thought was coming six months ago, you know They are still trying to fight a carbon tax election and I just don't know that that'll work Rosie the president of the United States brought in as we know more terrorists last week There are softwood lumber terrorists that have almost doubled mark Carney Says that I mean he's had to suspend his campaign a couple of different times to deal with these terrorists Although people have said that perhaps that's still campaigning as he's acting as prime minister

Do you think this election will escape the Donald Trump effect? No, I I don't I think that we are, you know, two weeks, two and a half weeks in here. And it is still for many Canadians, the dominant issue. And I think that that's where it is important to think about who that matters to. You know, most of the public opinion polls show that for older Canadians in particular, Donald Trump is the primary concern. They feel their savings, their pensions slipping away in the markets. They feel the threat of sovereignty in a different

way than younger people. The thing with that is that, as everybody knows, older Canadians tend to vote more reliably. So I think that that's an important thing to keep in mind as we head towards election day. But listen, I think that the Trump factor is the story of this election. And I think it is because it is a test of leadership for everyone. So it's, yes, all these policies that are being announced, we can talk about some of them are important,

but I think people are looking for someone who can directly take on Donald Trump. And I've never seen anything like that in an election before. Ryan, pick up on that because the context, I mean immediately, we're talking Monday morning, is that stock markets again are plummeting. If you look at the markets, it's like one of those horror films that you snuck into as a teenager that you weren't supposed to see. It's a nightmare. The Prime Minister, Mark Carney says he's the right person to be Prime Minister because he has navigated this kind of chaos.

Before, Pierre Poliev says, a resume is not a plan. What do you think Canadians are looking for at this moment? I think they are looking for a steady hand at the wheel. I mean, you know, that market collapse, I think, you know, people can think of it as numbers on a balance sheet, but you know, I read yesterday that since Donald Trump

became president, the markets have lost nine trillion dollars in wealth. That is nine trillion dollars that isn't in people's pensions, that isn't in their RRSPs anymore, that isn't in formerly profitable companies, that isn't there for growth and expansion, just as these tariffs are hitting us all with more barriers and with the possibility of a recession.

So what happens to that idea of affordability, Ryan? I mean, as you were saying, and what we talked about before, you said in some ways that this is two different elections, that Pierre Poliev was campaigning in a different frame in some ways. But for a lot of people, affordability is still top of mind. Has that been, I mean, the word is trumped.

Has that been trumped by what's happening in the markets right now? I think in a lot of ways it is. And affordability was such a pressing concern in this country, and remains such a pressing concern in this country that even in the wake of a Donald Trump threat, even in face of these threats, affordability can still be part of

the conversation. I think one of the challenges for Pierre Poliev going forward though is while in most public opinion polls he is shown as more dependable on or more the better choice when it comes to affordability as a concern, it's not by a huge margin the way it was when he was running against Justin Trudeau. The margin in that victory is much smaller, and people are hearing what the liberals are saying on affordability. They're watching, for example, the carbon tax disappear, even though the liberals are the ones who brought it in. They are getting that carbon rebate. They are hearing the liberals talk about affordability.

They are not closed off to them on that issue. And then affordability might not be the biggest issue for most people. So, you know, if you are competitive on the second choice issue and you are winning-handedly on the first choice issue, you're in pretty good shape. Rosie, what do we make of the fact that, I mean, public opinion polls broadly suggest that the liberals have some degree of a lead,

and yet, Pierre Poliev is drawing enormous crowds to these rallies. Airplane hangars filled with people, halls filled with people. He's been asking reporters, you know, what do you make of the size of that crowd? What's going on? If the polls don't reflect that, but he's still drawing huge crowds, how do you square that? I square it in knowing that conservatives have a very, very solid base, a very solid base of support, that they're very good at organizing and that they believe in pure quality of – I don't at this stage see that same ripple effect right across the country, right? So it's great to fill up a room. It certainly energizes your people and it energizes

your leader. The flip side of that is it might turn things into a bit of an echo chamber where you're not necessarily seeing and hearing from the other people. The problem for conservatives is always the same, right? That they have to build a broader coalition than liberals in order to form government. And if you are, you know, at 37, 38, 39 percent in the polls for a conservative, that generally doesn't necessarily mean that you've got support broadly across the country. So that's really what Pierre Poilé is dealing with right now. You know, the Atlantic province is probably not going to go his way.

So he's fighting in Ontario and he's fighting in BC for places where those seats could still flip around and they could still move. He's out in BC now, right? And yesterday he made a big announcement on, uh, drugs. He said that, um, they are going to prevent new supervised consumption sites, that they're going to invest a billion dollars to get 50,000 people into treatment. Um, and, and, and then he was asked again, okay, but you're talking about this issue. What about Donald Trump?

And he said, I reject the idea that we can't deal with domestic issues just because there's a foreign threat. As you know, because you've covered it so much on this show, drugs is such a huge issue in BC. Like that is a really, really powerful message to take to that province. And I think a lot of people were happy to hear what he had to say yesterday. And that might influence some of the votes in BC. But it goes, I think it also tells you a story about where he's having to go to try and increase support because it's so much harder to have a path to victory

for conservatives. We were next door in Alberta last week and we spoke with a number of people in central Alberta who feel very angry, they feel ignored, they feel as though they are stigmatized for the work that they do in the resource sector, particularly oil and gas. You had this editorial in the Globe by Preston Manning who said essentially that a vote for Mark Carney is a vote for Western secession, that it could be if he becomes the prime minister, the last prime minister of the United Canada.

Rosie, what do you make of that editorial? And similar comments in some ways by Danielle Smith, that she would look at if there is a liberal government, there could be a larger conversation, not that she's going to lead, but a citizen-led conversation around the place of Alberta in this country. Yeah, and she also wants to sort of join with Quebec in order to make sure that their province is well protected. Listen, I understand Western alienation. I understand that people in Alberta may be experiencing this election differently, that they are hearing Mark Carney say he will build pipelines but they don't believe him, that they hear Mark Carney get asked about Law C-69, which is like an impact assessment law around pipelines, and they think that that means that's the end of it. I think those are all fair things for them to be thinking about and worried about for sure,

but I don't think that Preston Manning's comments reflect really what most people in Alberta think. I simply don't. I don't think there are people pushing for separation, and I don't actually think at a time when this country is under real threat that the commons comments by Mr. Manning are particularly helpful for Canadians or or that welcome frankly I don't know that that's what people want to be hearing and talking about right now Given that they are feeling things about this country in a way that they haven't before Brian It was really interesting and speaking with people in in central Alberta

They talked about alienation, but they also talked about Canadian unity and that the unity of this country and the future of this country in many ways was on the ballot. Who does that help, do you think, when that is an undercurrent of the larger conversation in this election? I think it probably, you can make the case that it helps both of them. I think certainly Pierre Polyev speaks to people in Western Canada more than Mark Carney does, more than the Liberal Party ever has. And I think there's a great deal of history there. You know, Justin Trudeau, when he was running in 2015, 25 years after the fact, was hearing about his father's national energy

plan. There is certainly a history of central Canada hurting Alberta's economic interests, possibly for the greater good. Historians can debate that, but certainly there were definitely impacts there. I think Pierre Poliev better speaks to those concerns. He represents an Ottawa area riding, but I think his party definitely speaks to the interests of Albertans and people from Saskatchewan and parts of BC. But I think when people are concerned about the you know, the future of this country,

when it is coming from an external threat, because the real threat, you know, there are plenty of internal threats to Alberta's economy, and I understand the concerns they have about tanker bands and pipelines that don't seem to move. You know, I understand all of those concerns, but the real threat to the Canadian economy right now is Donald Trump and remains Donald Trump. And so it is an external threat. And we do still seem to think that Cardi will be the one who will lead that fight, who is best placed to fight that fight. I'm Zing Zing.

And I'm Simon Jack. And together we host Good, Bad, Billionaire. The podcast exploring the lives of some of the world's richest people. In the new season, we're setting our sights on some big names. Yup, LeBron James and Martha Stewart to name just a few. And as always, Simon and I are trying to decide whether we think they're good, bad or just another billionaire. That's Good Bad Billionaire from the BBC World Service.

Find it on BBC.com or wherever you get your BBC podcasts. Well, let's talk about another province that will have certainly a big role in the outcome of this election and that's Quebec. All five leaders were part of an extraordinary firing line on Roger Canada, the Saint-Chef interview. And everybody was watching to see how Mark Carney would do in French. How did he do? He did okay.

And is okay good enough, do you think? I think in a normal election, it probably wouldn't be good enough. I think in this election, okay is just fine. And you know, I lived in Quebec for 10 years. There is an enormous amount of goodwill that Quebecers show when Anglophones are speaking French and making an effort. He laughed at himself. He was self-deprecating. He graded himself a six out of 10. I don't think that that's a serious problem. Where it might be a problem though is in the debate, which will happen next week, the French debate, where Pierre

Poilier, whose French is very good, might kind of eat Mark Carney alive. And it becomes very hard to swipe back when you are not fluently bilingual. You could kind of see Mr. Carney translating in his head as he was answering his questions very deliberately, and sometimes would let an English word slip in that kind of thing. So I think it'll be more of a problem in the debate. I don't think it's a big problem for Quebecers, though. That is not my sense. And listen, the polls show a story there as well.

The Bloc Québécois really suffering in light of the fact that some people are thinking about, well, you know, if this is a real thing, Donald Trump is a real threat, if a recession is potentially coming, is that where I'm going to park my vote this time? I think Mr. Blancheyde is doing a pretty good job of making the case that if you want to make sure Quebec's interests are protected, you need to vote for him. But it doesn't really seem that that message is resonating in the same way that it usually does. Ryan, we haven't spoken about Jagmeet Singh and the NDP, wrapped up a second week at the federal election campaign in Atlantic Canada. He was running for prime minister in the last couple of weeks saying that essentially he wanted to be prime minister. Has that changed?

He certainly doesn't say it as often. He definitely is talking more about being the conscience of parliament. And I think that reflects where the poll numbers are. The NDP have been squeezed out of this conversation. They really have. The conservatives spent two years going after NDP votes, and there are a lot of parts of this country, a lot of writings in the country where the fight is after NDP votes, and there are a lot of parts of this country, a lot of writings in the country, where the fight is conservative NDP. So they lost some support there.

And then when this threat came and it looked like the liberals were the best to lead it, I think they lost some support there. So they really were being squeezed and pushed from both sides, and I think that has really hurt this party. I think it's also part of a big challenge that they have in fighting off two sides of their own party. They have, at the risk of sounding pejorative, the downtown elites, the urban people who live around universities and in core cities, and they have working class union people in Northern Ontario and in Hamilton Steel plants.

And sometimes it can be hard to bridge that divide and I think that's especially hard right now. We just have 90 seconds left, so let me ask you both, what's one thing that you will be watching for this week in the campaign, Ryan? I mean, this week in the campaign is interesting because it is sort of the last real time of the campaign that they will have to set their own agenda. Next week we have the debates. After that, you are getting very quickly into getting out the vote.

They're not going gonna have the same time to set their own agenda. So with the full week to be able to make their own case, what are they gonna use that week for? That's what I'm gonna be watching. Rosie, last word to you, what are you gonna be watching for this week? Yeah, this is sort of the hump week of the campaign, right?

Where there's lots of opportunity and lots of risk. I think I'm gonna watch to see whether the conservatives can make any dent in to Mark Carney's credibility and integrity. They've tried, I don't think it's been working yet, but they have more things to throw at the wall and I think we'll see that this week and it'll be interesting to see whether any of it sticks

because so far it doesn't seem to. Mr. Carney seems to be batting it off pretty easily. He's going to spend most of his time out west so it'll be interesting to see as well whether that time in the west helps him and penetrates in the west a little bit differently. We will be watching and we will talk again. Thank you both. Thank you. Rosemary Barton is the CBC Chief Political Correspondent, Ryan Tumulty, Political Reporter for the Toronto Star. The Currents Election Roadshow rolls into Oshawa later on this week, the home of General Motors.

Tonight, CBC News chief correspondent Adrienne Arsenault is in Medicine Hat, Alberta, to hear from voters there about what matters to them in this election. You can see that tonight on The National. For more CBC podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.