The Current - Are Canadian politicians shifting strategy because of Trump?

Episode Date: February 19, 2025

Donald Trump’s threats to annex Canada — and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation — may have shifted the political landscape in this country, with polls suggesting a shrinking lead for Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. Matt Galloway digs into what that means for a potential federal election with Conservative commentator Kate Harrison, NDP commentator Melanie Richer and Liberal commentator Susan Smith.

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This is a CBC podcast. Hello, it's Matt here. Thanks for listening to The Current, wherever you're getting this podcast. Before we get to today's show, wonder if I might ask a favor of you if you could hit the follow button on whatever app you're using.

There is a lot of news that's out there these days. We're trying to help you make sense of it all and give you a bit of a break from some of that news too. So if you already follow the program, thank you. And if you have done that, maybe you could leave us a rating or review as well. The whole point of this is to let more listeners find our show and perhaps find some of that information that's so important in these really tricky times. So thanks for all of that. Appreciate it. And on to today's show. Cast your mind back way back to January the 5th of this year. Justin Trudeau was

leading the Liberals to historic polling lows. His government on the brink of collapse, Pierre Poliev, could practically taste a majority government and then... Why would we pay $200 billion a year in subsidies to Canada when they're not a state? You do that for a state but you don't do that for somebody else's country. So I think Canada is going to be a very serious contender to be our 51st state. That threat of annexation from President Donald Trump got Canadians thinking about politics differently. There has been a wave of patriotism in this

country and a big shift in the polls as well. And so joining me to discuss the Trump effect in Canada are Susan Smith. She is a liberal commentator, co-founder and principal at Blue Sky Strategy Group. Kate Harrison, who is a conservative commentator with Summer Strategies and Melanie Richet, who is an NDP commentator with Ernst Cliff Strategies.

Good morning, everyone. Good morning everyone. Morning, Matt. Morning. Susan, when you and I spoke in January, the diagnosis seemed to be rather grim for the Liberal Party. Has there been a deathbed revival for the Liberals? I think it's safe to say that, Matt. It definitely was grim. There's no question. The polls were definitely in the wrong direction for the liberals. They were in the right direction for the conservatives. And President Trump, I think, has single-handedly changed that narrative.

He's changed the ballot question. And with Prime Minister Trudeau stepping aside and now a liberal leadership and the emergence of Mark Carney as the frontrunner, it's completely changed the way Canadians are thinking about the election that'll come. Trump's declared economic warfare on us. He's used those words. And so Canadians are thinking differently. They're, they're taking their time.

And I think the ballot question definitely will be who is best to lead the country and deal with Trump for the next four years. Kate, how has Donald Trump scrambled the political landscape in this country? And how has the math changed without Justin Trudeau leading the Liberals? Yeah, well, I think that is a lot of why we're seeing

the fluidity in the polls, Matt, is the departure of Justin Trudeau, deeply unpopular leader. I think that there was a high watermark of support for the conservative... ...with Trudeau around. Now that he's gone, I think things are right sizing a bit. I think that certainly the context has changed, but I'm not sure that

the message and the content for the conservatives has or that it necessarily needs to. I think that, you know, they need to be very firm on the in the face of threats and talk about how they would deal with the Trump presidency. But at the end of the day, people still have bills to pay. And a lot of people's problems started before January 20th. And so I think the further removed we are from the immediacy of the antics from the White House, and the more people realize that they need an economic vision for Canada and more support with their day to day cost of living, I do think that that is going to be what forces people out

to the polls and has them really think about who's best to lead them. do think that that is going to be what forces people out to the polls and has them really think about who's best to lead them. I think that we're in a bit of Trump media right now and we might be over indexing and overestimating the impact that that will have on people's voter preferences. I'm going to come back to that message and whether the message has changed or not from the conservatives in a moment. Melanie, what is your perspective on this?

Do you think that Donald Trump has turned politics in this country upside down? Totally. And, you know, maybe I'll go to a few points that were already shared. I was looking at polling done yesterday by Angus Reid and even the prime minister's favourables are up, I think because of, you know, what's happening with Trump.

So I think there is a shift in the way that the issues that folks care about, you know, we hear the conservatives talk often about the carbon tax and how this is going to be a carbon tax election. And if you would have asked me in December, I would have told you, you know what, a lot of, you know, regular folks in my life are talking to me about that. They haven't said a word of that since December, right? Everybody in my universe is worried about the impact of Trump on their cost of living. So I agree with Kate that the issue continues to be affordability and folks are continued to be worried about what that means for how they're able to pay their bills and make ends meet. But I think it's shifted a little bit. It is no longer affordability in the ways of things in this country are too expensive,

but it has changed in the way of my life is about to get more affordable because of what's happening south of the border and because what President Trump is saying on a day-to-day basis. One of the things that people are paying close attention to is how the conservatives in particular are reacting to that. Over the weekend, Pierre Pauli of Hilda Rowley in Ottawa with a message that was pitched particularly to meet this current mood in many ways. Have a listen to a little bit of Mr. Pauli of speech.

So let me be clear. We will never be the 51st state. We will bear any burden and pay any price to protect the sovereignty and independence of our country. Kate, on the lectern for many, many months, the sign was, acts the tax. The sign on the lectern has changed now. It now says Canada first. And the question is whether this is a pivot from Pierre Poliev or not. You've said, and you just said this, the context

has changed in some ways, but the content has not. So is this not a pivot from Pierre Poliev? I wouldn't describe it as that Matt. And in fact, the carbon tax for the last year, year and a half has been a cornerstone of what conservatives are talking about in terms of day to day affordability and pocketbook issues. That has not gone away.

It's going to go up again on April 1st. The person most likely to succeed, Justin Trudeau, Mark Carney, has been part and parcel with that policy, a big champion of the carbon tax for many, many years. Although he also said that he would scrap the carbon tax. Yeah, that's not true. He said that he would pause it until after the election, and then he has actually since said that consumers will be paying more. So I would say it's not quite clear where he's where he stands on that issue. But it's more than just day-to-day affordability. When we were talking

about economic sovereignty, how to make sure Canada can stand on our own two feet, carbon tax is really foundational to our investment environment. And so I think for Poliev, you know, it's not just a conversation about gas prices, it's also about how we can be more independent from the United States. Very difficult to have that conversation the longer that the carbon tax sticks around. So I think that this is not a shift.

I think that if anything, they're going to be leaning into much of what they've been talking about for the better part of 2018 months. And I'll come back to you in just a moment, Susan. I could hear you in the background. Yeah, yeah, I think the fact in the background. Go ahead. Yeah. I think the fact of the matter is the two front runners in the liberal leadership campaign, Mark Carney and Christopher Preland, have both been crystal clear that they would cut the

carbon tax. They would stop that. And so I think what they've done right away is pull the carpet out from Mr. Poliev on the narrative that he's been pushing for so long. The other narrative that Mr. Poliev has been talking about for the last two years is that Canada's broken. And what we've seen is that Canada is not broken. So what you saw on the weekend with Mr. Pelyev in a rally is something that politicians do

in the lead up to an election. They pull their supporters into the room, they stage a nice backdrop. Mr. Pelyev even had a red tie on and he's trying to pivot from being Captain Canada is broken to Captain Canada and I think it's going to be a tough pivot for him because he was very successful with his ask the tax slogan now that the tax is going to be axed but that's not what Canadians are going to be making their decisions about. The worse Mr. Trump behaves, the worse it

actually is for Mr. Pugliav. He's been a career politician. Mark Carney's run the government, the Bank of Canada. He's been the governor of the Bank of England. He's worked in the real world. Kristofer Freeland has led the country from a finance minister perspective. I do think the polls are looking like Mr. Carney will win, but this is what Canadians are going to be looking at. Definitely affordability issues, but Mr. Trump, it continues to declare war on Canada. He's not going to change his mind. We are going to be feeling the effects of it and we need someone who understands the economy. And that's the message that the Liberals are trying to contrast with the

Conservatives. Kate, is it tricky, just briefly, is it tricky for Pierre Poliev to wrap himself in the flag when he has been saying that Canada is broken? No, I think, I think you can walk and chew gum at the same time. I think it is fair to say that people's problems started before Donald Trump was elected to office. And it is also fair to point out that the

policies of the last nine years under the Liberals have led to Canada's weakened economic state. So that is part of the message, but you also need to offer solutions and what we saw on the weekend was about 40 minutes of substantive delivery of policy. So what would change under a conservative government? That's the message that they need to be leaning to at this point is how things would look different and if you want conservative policy solutions to these

problems you will actually have to vote conservative. Melanie, if the math is very different than when you and I spoke in January, what does Pierre-Paul Eiffel need to do now? It's hard to say, right? So, I agree with Susan. I think that it is super hard to have convinced folks that Canada is broken and then pivot to Canada first. I don't think that works in people's brains, right? It's disjointed. So I'd be super interested to see how that conversation is going with folks. But again, not to go back to polling again, but I do like following it for the sentiment of people feeling and where they're at. And I think Piapolje was super successful when he was able to make people

angry. The Canada is broken, really responded well to that anger, but we're seeing that anger shift into fear. So how do you respond to folks when they're worried about different things and they're looking for somebody that has their back in a different way? I think it will be super hard for the Conservatives to fill that, and I think we're starting to see that. But I do think it's an opportunity, or not even just an opportunity, a challenge for all parties to almost go back to the drawing board a little bit and figure out how they

need to respond to people in this new feeling because it will be very different. Particularly for the liberals who are in the midst of a leadership race right now. Mark Carney is running in that race. He is apparently racking in money and endorsements as well. He spoke with the CBC's Rosemary Barton on the weekend. Have a listen to a little bit of that. It would be helpful for Canadians to know exactly what you would do when it comes to tariffs. So why are you being so reticent to talk about that?

Because I'm a good negotiator. I have negotiated a number of situations in the past. I know how to manage crises. I know what you do in the order you can control things. It is not a good idea to insert yourself in the middle of a negotiation, give conflicting signals. Other candidates are doing that. It's not a good idea to do that.

Susan, Mark Carney won't say what he'll do in response to the Trump's, the tariffs that Donald Trump is proposing. He has not been elected, he has not led a party. Why is it a good idea for Canadians to gamble on him and for the party to gamble on him with all of those big question marks? Well, he's not an unknown quantity. I think the rest of the sentence when he was speaking to Rosie was that I haven't been elected the leader yet,

so not my place to insert myself in the negotiations. Look, I think when you elect a leader, he will be speaking about the policies, he's addressed some of the dollar for dollar tariffs that he would take on. But what he has said he is, is he is an experienced negotiator. He worked at the Bank of Canada under Stephen Harper and Jim Flaherty and he helped us navigate the economic crisis in 2008 as the governor of the Bank of Canada. Then England, Brexit, managing that. Then the private sector.

Pierre Paulyev was elected as an MP when he was 26 years old. He hasn't worked in the real world in financial markets, dealing with the kinds of things and the kinds of global leaders and business people that Canada is going to have to deal with. What we need in this turbulent time with Trump is a steady hand, a calm, a calm manager. And that's not very exciting. Have you warmed up on him? I mean, I think when we spoke in January, you

were a bit coy as to whether he was the guy or not. I was trying to be neutral. Oh, okay. I was trying to be neutral. I, I respect Mark Carney. I respect Christa Freeland. I respect all of the candidates in the race. I have my trust and my faith in Mark Carney's experience. I do know him personally. I also know him to be a warm and friendly person.

You know, a guy who's coached his kids in hockey, his daughters in hockey. So I think he's someone that's going to appeal to Canadians. He's definitely a technocrat. He's smart. He's very technical, but that's what we need right now. We don't need slogans, as he said. We don't need people with cool t-shirts. We need people with smart ideas and a smart approach. Okay, the conservatives seem to see him as a threat, given the amount of attention they are lavishing on him.

Do you think that's fair to say? Yeah, I think that they've been trying to brand Mark Carney because he is a relatively unknown entity to a majority of Canadians. And, you know, a good rule of thumb in communications and PR is generally to define your opponent before they have the ability to define themselves. And we are in a really highly controlled environment, Matt, in a leadership campaign where Mark Carney can have a lot of say in terms of who he speaks to in the media, how he positions

himself. The same is true on the campaign trail. And at the end of the day, he is an untested politician. He has never sought elected office before. The scrutiny that comes with a national campaign is enormous. Right now, he hasn't had much scrutiny. And one of the reasons he's being coy about what he would do around tariffs is because he might not have a proposal that's all that different than the current government. And I think that that's going to be his big challenge. What does he propose in terms of change and

separation and contrast from Justin Trudeau given he's been part of the furniture and the establishment there for the last decade. Melanie, you've talked about polls a couple of times. If you look at the sweep of polls overall, it would appear that the liberal success is coming in some ways at the expense of the NDP, which is getting squeezed. Can I ask you, have a listen to Jagmeet Singh.

Jagmeet Singh was speaking yesterday, and I'm gonna ask you a little bit about the fortunes of the NDP. Have a listen to this. It's no wonder that Stephen Harper, the former Conservative Prime Minister of Canada, wanted Mark Carney to be his finance minister, because clearly they see eye to eye, cutting services, cutting jobs, cutting public sector workers to give to their millionaire, billionaire CEO buddies. If Canadians, Melanie, are looking for strong leadership right now

in the face of Donald Trump and threats coming from south of the border, where does that leave the NDP? It's tricky for sure. And like I talked about earlier about all parties having to shift and figure out where do they sit now. It's the same thing for Jigmeet and it's the same thing for the NDP. There needs to be some reflection on how you can respond to this. And I think a place for the NDP to respond is in the what if. Okay, so Trump has done this thing, then what? Who is making sure that

we are reinforcing our industries, that we're protecting jobs, and we're making sure that people, if they do lose their jobs or they're faced with an even higher cost of living who's taking care of them. So I think that that's an opportunity for Jigmeet and for the NDP to respond in. Are you surprised that Charlie Angus has been kind of the loudest voice on this? I mean turning up on CNN talking, insulting Donald Trump talking about 100% tariffs on Teslas for example. That wasn't Jigmeet Singh who was saying it, it was Charlie Angus. Yeah, well I mean Jigmeet was on CNN before Charlie example, that wasn't Jagmeet Singh who was saying it, it was Charlie Angus. Yeah, well I mean Jagmeet was on CNN before Charlie was,

but to your point, Charlie's being loud, and I think Charlie's being loud because he can be loud, right? He is not gonna be an MP in two weeks from now, so he's trying to figure out how to tackle this threat, because whether he's an MP or not, he sees this as something that will seriously hurt Canadians, so he's doing the Charlie Angus thing and he's taking shots or not, he sees this as something that will seriously hurt Canadians.

So he's doing the Charlie Angus thing and he's taking shots where he can take shots. So I think we'll continue to see that from him, whether he's elected or not. But I do think what's interesting about the clip that you just played for Jigme is the framing of Mark Carney very much to the centre of the Liberals, which is very different from where Justin Trudeau was.

So I do think we're seeing a shift away from the NDP now, but I do think that'll balance itself because that opens the path to ideas that will invest in people and take care of people, which we know is what's needed right now. So I think that that is an opportunity for the NDP to step into. Here's a question for you. What's your email address saying about your business? First impressions matter and your email says a lot. It's your customer's first look at your brand. A custom.ca email shows your credible, professional, and local. It's your business identity.

Own it. Show you mean business from the get-go. Get your custom.ca email now at yourcustomemail.ca and let your email do the talking. I'm Dena Temple-Raston, the host of the Click Here podcast from Record of Future News. Twice a week, we tell true stories about the people making and breaking our digital world. And these days, our digital world is being overrun by hackers. I was just targeted by a nation state. And they range from reflective.

It's a crime, bro. And I live with that every day. To ruthless. Do you feel guilty about it? No, not really. Click here from Recorded Future News. You can find us wherever you get your podcasts. Susan, we're running out of time.

I want to know, I mean, we've talked a lot about Mark Carney. He's not actually the leader of the Liberal Party yet. Is it the possibility that the party could pick somebody else or that during the debates, they could tear each other apart? Well, I hope they don't tear each other apart. And you're right, Matt, that is absolutely a possibility and he has not been elected the leader yet. He is the front runner. He's raised the most money and continues to raise the most money. French debate is on Monday. English debate

is Tuesday. I hope the liberals behave themselves and don't produce cannon fodder for the conservative attack ads. I hope that works. But I do think the poll lines and the trends and the momentum are really quite significant. He's drawing more than a thousand people to events. He's packing rooms and packing halls. And I think the polls are going in the right direction. So we'll see what happens on March 9th. That's the day the liberals vote. And then I think it's game on. As I said, the worst Mr. Trump behaves towards Canada, the worst it is for Mr. Poliev, the worst it is for Canadians.

We're buying Canadian tomatoes, we're booing the American anthem. We've never been more united as a country. So I think Canadians will pause, they'll take stock, and they'll decide, do they want to support someone who's been telling us for two years that Canada years that Canada's broken or do they want someone that has a plan and the experience to manage the economy?

Okay. This last word to you, if the polls are going perhaps broadly in the wrong direction for the conservatives, is there pressure on Pierre Poliev to, to change him, not so much the message, but what he is presenting to Canadians in this moment? Yeah.

The conservatives in most polling still have about 40% support, Matt, and that is exceptionally high for conservatives in Canada. So I think it's more about watching the trend line as opposed to responding and reacting to individual polls. I think we're seeing some right sizing, again, a voter intention with Justin Trudeau gone.

And certainly the Trump threat has, has opened up a voter accessibility, I would say for the liberals. Are you worried about what Donald Trump says next? No, you don't get to 40% or higher in the polls with a message that's not resonating. And I think that the conservatives at this point in time need to lean into a lot of what they've been talking about in terms of affordability,

in terms of public safety. Their entire slogan for the campaign is bring it home. It's been that way for 18 months. And I think that that actually speaks to the moment more now than perhaps it did before. A lot can change in a month, certainly in a couple of weeks too. Perhaps we'll talk again as this continues to roll. Thank you very much for being here this morning. Thank you. Susan Smith is a Liberal Commentator, Co-Founder and Principal with Blue Sky Strategy Group. Kate Harrison, conservative commentator with Summa Strategies. And Melanie Richet is an NDP commentator with Earns Cliff Strategies. For more CBC podcasts go to cbc.ca

slash podcasts.