The Current - Can Mark Carney sell his budget?

Episode Date: October 23, 2025

The Prime Minister is telling Canadians his upcoming budget will be both affordable and ambitious. But are they — and the opposition parties whose support he needs — convinced?

This ascent isn't for everyone. You need grit to climb this high this often. You've got to be an underdog that always overdelivers. You've got to be 6,500 hospital staff, 1,000 doctors, all doing so much with so little. You've got to be Scarborough. Defined by our uphill battle and always striving towards new heights. And you can help us keep climbing.

Donate at lovescarbro.cairbo. This is a CBC podcast. Hello, I'm Matt Galloway, and this is the current podcast. Building, taking control, and winning. We will make generational investments with a plan to protect our communities, our borders, our way of life. We will build a stronger economy where everyone has a chance to get ahead. And we will empower Canadians with new opportunities, better careers, and a lower cost of living. The Prime Minister, Mark Carney, is getting Canadian.

Canadians ready for his first budget. In a speech last night at the University of Ottawa, the Prime Minister spoke about the work his government has been doing and plans to continue to do. Our upcoming budget will move forward with our bi-Canadian policy, prioritizing Canadian steel, aluminum, lumber, manufactured goods, and technology for Canadian projects. And with new orders for homes, infrastructure, and defense equipment, becoming orders for Canadian suppliers, we will be our own best customer. And while he tried to add a spoonful of sugar with the medicine,

there was certainly some signaling of potential bitter taste on the way. Catherine Cullen is a CBC senior reporter, host of the House, here on CBC Radio 1. Catherine, good morning. Good morning, Matt. A prime time speech, that seems like an unusual thing for a budget that has yet to come out. What is Mark Carney's message to Canadians? I mean, I think the big takeaway is that this is going to be a dramatic budget. And maybe there are some people who are going to scoff to hear a phrase like that,

dramatic budget, we need only to think back to the last time the federal government gave an economic update, right? That was the economic update that Christia Freeland didn't deliver. She resigned, right? There was a heck of a lot of drama around that. The drama in this case, though, it is going to be of a different kind that some of the numbers that we're going to see in this budget, some of the decisions that Mark Carney is making and his finance minister, Francois Philippe Champagne, there are likely to be some pretty remarkable numbers here. You know, Mark Carney has said that he was clear. This is the kind of spending that we haven't seen outside of wartime or a pandemic.

Earlier in the day yesterday, he described this as the largest investment in our country's history. I think a lot of folks know when politicians say investment, it means spending tax dollars. So the speech last night was making the case for it. Why go big? He talked a lot about taking risks. He likes to quote the Roman poet Virgil Fortune favors the bold, but also telling Canadians. in order to do these big things, there is some pain coming in a manner of speaking. He talked about sacrifices.

He talked about Canada not necessarily being able to do all of the things it wants to do in order to be able to do what he believes are the things that the federal government needs to do, ought to do at this moment to meet this time of global economic uncertainty. So let's talk about what that language actually means. When he talks about building, where's the government going to spend the money? Well, I think he's been pretty clear about a lot of this, right? I mean, defense spending is going to be a really big piece of not just the budget for next year, but the years ahead. And I do think Canadians are still wrapping their brains around how significant this is that we're prioritizing the military to this extent.

So defense spending a big piece, national infrastructure projects, right? We've been hearing so much about that, whether it's a new LNG facility, whether we're talking about ports, critical minerals. We know there's a lot coming in that front, and it's going to involve a fair bit of government money, too, and home building. I mean, we've been talking about a housing crisis in this country for years now. Mark Carney's created build Canada homes. So all of that, we sort of knew this was coming. I will say there were two things last night in terms of what the government plans to do, not so much the pulling back, but the new things that did stand out. I think places where we need to keep our eye on the ball.

Immigration, he said the budget is going to include Canada's new immigration plan to do better. for newcomers, for everyone. What does that mean? I'm very interested to see. And climate, we're probably going to want to talk more about this. The new climate competitiveness strategy is going to be introduced in the budget. He says it's going to focus on results over objectives, investments over prohibition. There's a lot we can read into that.

So, again, something we're really going to want to watch. He has to figure out the climate thing. It's interesting. He did an interview with Bloomberg, Michelle Hussain, formerly at the BBC. And she asked him, based on everything that he's done in the past, with his book and work with the UN. Her question was, what happened to you? Suggesting that he is abandoning

some of the climate commitments that he has touted and passed. What's that line that he needs to walk? Well, I mean, I think he tried to lay it out last night. So let's dig into some of those phrases, right? Results over objectives, investments over prohibition. Investments over prohibition. Well, what are we doing in this country right now on the federal level that is prohibitive?

There are things like having an emissions cap, right? on the oil and gas sector, we know the federal government's kind of flirted with dropping that. Danielle Smith, Alberta Premier, doesn't like it at all. The federal government has, in a manner of speaking, said, if we can get to the same place without these same kinds of limitations, maybe that's something we would talk about. The very touchy subject of whether or not there should still be a tanker ban off the coast of BC. So what kind of prohibitions are they ready to get rid of? What kind of climate regulations are they ready to get rid of that they think we can still get to

the same place by investing. And how does that track, as you say, Matt, with the Mark Carney that has been out there for years, writing a book like values, working with the United Nations, to get to a place where there is still meaningful progress towards Canada's emissions targets, which we are not on track to meet right now when it comes to 2030. Another word he used was sacrifice. What is going to end up on the altar of sacrifice? This is a key question. And I do think it's the heart of the speech last night is to tell Canadians, there's some tough stuff coming here. A big part of this, they have said, the liberals have said, they want to balance the government's operational spending, right? So Mark Carney's

created one big bucket capital spending that's for these big infrastructure projects, for this big military spending. And then they're taking a look at government itself and they're saying in the next three years, we want to balance that chunk. So, you know, government workers, other programs, et cetera, et cetera. That is going to require. some pretty massive spending cuts. When you talk to economists, they're really clear about this. They say, you know, there may not, what we hear in the budget right now, this next budget, may not be enough to get us there.

I mean, it is going to require dramatic cuts to the civil service. Mark Carney said during the last election campaign, it was going to be caps, not cuts. I think it's very hard to see how that's true. You already have the Canadian Labor Congress who are saying that, you know, these cuts are going to hurt ordinary people, that the focus should be on, you know, raising corporate taxes instead. Well, and if you think about some of the things that, government does that Canadians, to varying degrees, have, you know, I'll say an emotional investment. And what about foreign aid? Look at what the UK did, right? They cut back on foreign aid in order to boost

military spending. They were really explicit about it. Well, if the government is going to put a whole bunch of money into meeting our NATO targets, growing Canada's armed forces, and they also want to balance at least part of the books in this operational spending, I don't see a world where we come out of this with the same level of international aid. that Canada has previously done. What about indigenous services? That is a big chunk of the federal government's budget. Mark Carney is trying to forge better relationships with indigenous communities in part in hopes of getting these big nation building projects working. What happens if he cuts back on services? Those nation building projects, they're going to potentially benefit

some communities, you know, certain communities, communities that have wealth or the potential for more wealth. Some of these services go to people who are most in need. And Mark Carney has been explicit in saying he believes in reconciliation. He's not going to fail Indigenous Canadian. So how do you square all of that? There are going to be some really, I think, crunchy, challenging decisions in here. And I think Mark Carney was laying the groundwork last night for some of the hard questions that are ahead. If you squinted, the speech kind of looked like a campaign speech. And that's an interesting observation for some people to make. Because this is a minority government, you already have the government house leader saying that

he's increasingly concerned or worried that maybe the votes aren't there to pass this budget. It is a confidence matter. Does Mark Carney have the votes? I mean, I think the federal government does need to worry about this. And, you know, you only need to think back a little ways to Joe Clark and a budget that did not pass. You know, you can't be overconfident when you're a minority government, right? Governments can fall. New governments can fall over a budget.

It has happened in modern Canadian history. That said, I do not think that really the opposition parties, by and large, want another election campaign right now. You know, the NDP could, for instance, sit this one out, right? They're in the middle of a leadership race. I think they're in a very difficult position because Mark Carney has used the word austerity in relation to this budget before. You talked about the Canadian Labor Congress are a lot of public sector unions that are not happy, very publicly not happy about these cuts. It's hard for the NDP to get on board with the budget. potentially in that sense, but at the same time, without a leader, you know, they put them in a, and no money, it puts them in a terrible position. So might they sit it out remains to be seen? I think more than anything. You know, I, the last prime minister's trip I went on was that trip he did to London about a month ago now. And one of the questions that came out of that is, you know, why are you here and why, how do you explain to Canadians what you're doing? Because it's clear that in the mind of Mark Carney and the people around and this all makes perfect sense. They are working in their mind at war.

warp speed. But one thing I was asking some of the folks in the prime minister's office is, you know, are you worried about bringing Canadians along with you? And they're really focused on the work. But I think last night was an effort to say, let's make sure we bring Canadians along with us. Because I don't think they want people to sort of be slapped in the face by some of these dramatic numbers that might come out of nowhere on November 4th when the budget is tabled. What about Pierre Pauliev? Conservative leader met with the prime minister yesterday before this speech and laid out sort of his list of requests, demands. I don't know how you want to phrase it in terms of what he wants to see in the budget.

Mr. Pahliav is also, I mean, he's facing a leadership review. He's in the midst of this turmoil over the comments that he made, but the comments, the leadership of the RCMP saying that they were despicable, that perhaps the prime minister should have been jailed. And have, you know, conservative members speaking up on background saying, We're not sure whether he's the person. I mean, where does it leave Pierre Pahliav? Does he want an election?

No, I do not think that Pier Pollyov is going to be able to support this budget. I'm not sure that this. I mean, we're just coming out of an election ultimately. And I think Pierre Palliev probably needs some more runway first. He needs to, yes, ensure that the whole party is on side with him. And I do think this is a significant bump in the road what he's dealing with right now in terms of his own political fortunes. At this moment, it does not look like a game changer. It does not look like a fatal blow.

We'll see how it plays out. But I think he is still building his case against Mark Carney. But can he support this budget, if that's the question? Do I hear you holding your breath, Matt? Stop it. Don't hold your breath. But to your point, maybe somebody gets caught in the elevator and they don't make it there to vote. Indeed. Urgent bathroom break. But I think you have to think about what for seven people, that seems like that.

You have to think about the case that Pierre Pollyev is making right now, right? Just yesterday in question period, he said Mark Carney's costly, he's out of touch with reality, he's making life harder for, you name it, tradesworkers, single mothers, everybody. He has also said repeatedly that Mark Carney, in his view, is worse than Justin Trudeau. Think about all the things that Pierre Paulyev said about Justin Trudeau. He views Mark Carney as being worse. He cites particular numbers to make this case. I just do not see how the conservatives can get on side. They've also said the deficit has to stay below $42 billion.

Well, Desjardin put out a forecast yesterday that's in line with a lot of other things that we've seen from various economists. They're predicting $74.5 billion, if it's too early for folks to do math, we can say that's just shy of double where the conservative bar is. So I don't see that the conservatives can support this budget. And I'm not sure that they're going to be willing to relent. on their prosecution of Mark Carney either to just step out of the room. The next few days will be fascinating leading up to the budget. Catherine, thank you very much. Thank you.

Catherine Cullen, host of the House here on CBC Radio 1. This has been the current podcast. You can hear our show Monday to Friday on CBC Radio 1 at 8.30am at all time zones. You can also listen online at cbc.ca.ca slash the current or on the CBC Listen app or wherever you get your podcasts. My name is Matt Galloway. Thanks for listening. For more CBC podcasts, go to cbc.ca.ca slash podcasts.