The Current - Canada is scaling back immigration. What will that mean?

Episode Date: November 7, 2025

Budget 2025 promises generational investments but the housing measures are less than the Liberals promised in the election. We speak to the federal Housing and Infrastructure Minister Gregor Robertson about why they've scaled back their plans and what it means for people who are still priced out of the market — and the role immigration plays in Canada’s housing crisis. We also speak with a labour economist about whether the federal government’s plans to dial back the number of temporary residents coming to Canada by 43% from the target in 2025 is the right approach — and an immigration lawyer about how these cuts impact refugees

We love Zadie Smith for her novels and her essays, not to mention her incredible jumpsuits and beautiful headscarves. She's kind of iconic, but she's also just a mom who has a teen to deal with. I tentatively suggested to my daughter, hey, I wrote this piece about being a teenager. Before I even got to the end of the sentence, she was like, hell no. Get that away from me. You could literally be Zadie Smith and your kids still might not want to listen to you.

But if you want to listen to more of Zadie, you can head to my podcast, Bookends with Matea Roach. This is a CBC podcast. Hello, I'm Matt Galloway, and this is the current podcast. The federal government is selling the budget released this week as a generational investment to make Canada's economy the strongest in the G7. In a moment, we'll hear about how immigration fits into this. But first, one of the big ticket items many observers were watching is housing. And there is a connection to immigration as well.

The Minister of Housing and Infrastructure, Gregor Robertson, joins us now. Minister, good morning. Good morning, Matt. Budget 2025 includes new money for housing, but less than previously promised. The election platform your government ran on just a few months ago, promised $11.8 billion for the Build Canada Homes project over four years. The budget cuts that almost in half, $7.2 billion over five years. Why have you scaled back your ambition on housing?

Actually, we're not scaling back our ambition that we are, this is the first phase of a series of investments that will be unprecedented in terms of investing in affordable housing for Canada. I've been around the block a few times as a mayor and as an MLA and seeing this level of ambition in the federal budget for housing and for community infrastructure is really unprecedented. And that's the whole spectrum of affordable housing from solving homeless. to, you know, load a middle income rental housing that needs to be built, co-op housing that we need, housing for students, seniors, there is opportunity to leverage an enormous amount of private investment into our housing as well. That's what this does is leveraging funding from all levels of government and the private sector, but this is the biggest scale investment that the federal government has made in one single budget into affordable

housing. What changed in the last few months, though, when you promise $11.8 billion over four years and suddenly what's actually promised in the budget is 7.2 over five years. As somebody who's been around the block, you know that the math matters. The math matters and the commitment that we made in our election platform was actually $35 billion into housing. But specifically for build Canada homes, that was almost $12 billion over four years. And now this is $7.2 over five. I'm just wondering, whether that's what's behind that change it's really you know it's how it's scored i mean it's we're talking accrual versus cash uh i won't get into the budget technicalities but what is available to invest in affordable housing in this budget is unprecedented and you know we've got a big job to do to deliver that working with provinces and cities indigenous nations we are all

going to be stepping up together as team Canada but this is the most that a federal government has invested in affordable housing in a single budget. And future budgets, you know, I'm going to continue to push for this level and consistently over these years to come. That's what we need to see. The platform also promised tax incentives to encourage multi-unit residential construction. That also is not in the budget. Why aren't you going through with that? That is a piece that's still in the works. Again, we're not putting every single thing in this year's budget. We've got obviously a lot of priorities, but we've got to do what we can deliver this year in the budget. It's a huge amount to deliver. There's also $51 billion of community

infrastructure to enable housing to be built. So in Toronto, I announced with Mayor Chow, the Downsview lands are getting infrastructure investments in the wastewater systems that will unlock 100,000 homes being built there. And that's that infrastructure investment. Water, public transit, community centers, we need to make those investments as well to build communities to make sure we can build the housing across the country. Combined, that's really off the charts in terms of what's being dedicated in a budget for housing in Canada in one year. I guess one of the reasons why these questions matter is because of the context that we're talking in, where we're seeing prices and sales down in markets like Toronto and Vancouver, as you very well know.

you have people who are selling at a loss, but you also have developers who are canceling projects. And the large Urban Center Alliance, which represents housing developers, said that they're deeply disappointed in the budget because they worry that this downturn in housing could lead to something like 100,000 jobs being lost. How worried are you about that?

Well, certainly keeping a very close eye on it, and we've had lots of meetings with industry, the developers across the country. We're seeing, you know, a mix of levels. Vancouver and Toronto have been struggling with their condo markets. We're seeing housing start significantly up in many other cities across Canada. So it's a mix right now, and that's why my focus is on affordable housing, first and foremost. The market has its ups and downs. It's mostly been way up for many years, which has created

a challenge for three decades on affordable housing. And that's why our government is focused on on really investing in affordable housing. That's where our focus is and making sure that the non-market housing that we don't have because of decades of underinvestment, we need to catch up on that. We need, A, we need to double construction overall. So we're providing enough housing for everyone in the country. But focus of our governments need to be on the affordable end of the spectrum and making sure that's being delivered.

Can you understand why people in this industry say that what was promised in the budget seems to lack urgency and doesn't meet the moment? Can you understand? Again, as somebody who, as a former mayor of Vancouver, has looked at this, do you understand why they're saying that? I understand why they're saying that if they have condo product, if they have condos that they can't sell because too many were built at a high price when the market was driving that. That is a challenge that we're keeping a close eye on it and figuring out how we can make sure that that doesn't upset the apple cart, we have to focus on affordable housing, that we have

had a crisis in housing for decades, and that's what we've got to tackle here. And building communities that are growing really fast right now, we've got to build the community infrastructure that enables us to build more affordable housing. I'd suggested in the introduction that the housing conversation is connected to the one we're about to have, which is around immigration. One of the people that we will often consult on housing policy is Mike Moffat. He's an economist at the missing middle initiative. In his read, was that your government's focus has shifted from increasing housing supply to, in his words, reducing housing demand through scaling back immigration. Is he right about that? Well, we are definitely not reducing supply. I think the focus here is on doubling

construction across the country with making sure the affordable end of the spectrum, like co-ops and workforce housing, that's what we're wanting to deliver across Canada. Immigration levels have been a high. We're a country of immigrants. You know, immigration and cultural diversity is core to who we are as Canadians. We want to continue to welcome people from around the world. We want to welcome great talent to come to our country right now that wants to leave our neighbors to the south. We have opportunities there, but we've got to manage it very carefully and in balance with the housing that we are building.

So we're obviously keeping an eye on those. The levels are down going forward for this next year and making sure that we're catching up on the housing front, on the health care front. I'm now responsible for delivering, on the federal government side, $5 billion into the health care system for hospitals, emergency rooms, clinics. We want to make sure we're helping the provinces

where there is a critical need right now because the services are crunched. Do you believe that, High immigration levels have put a pinch on housing availability. Is there evidence to show that? You know, there's, well, the housing crunch that we have is, again, it's three decades in the making, and that's not building enough housing, not enough affordable housing. What's the role of immigration?

What's the role of immigration in that, if you don't mind me in true. Immigration is obviously contributes to population. So it's one factor in terms of putting pressure on the housing system, but it starts with housing supply, making sure Canadians have enough housing, and particularly on the affordable side, that's where we've been really lagging for many, many, many years, and not seeing federal investment in particular.

When I was a mayor, for most of my years in Vancouver, we had no federal support for affordable housing. And that was a big hole that we dug right across the country. So, you know, we've got to tackle the supply side. We've got to manage carefully the immigration. side and make sure we are welcoming people to come to Canada, but taking care of that and making sure we're building enough to keep up with the needs across Canada. We'll talk more about this. It is one of those pressing issues of our time. Gregor Robertson,

good to speak with you. Thank you very much. Thank you, Matt. Gregor Robertson is the Federal Minister of Housing and Infrastructure. Michael Lewis here. My best-selling book, The Big Short, tells the story of the build-up and birth. of the U.S. housing market back in 2008. A decade ago, the Big Short was made into an Academy Award-winning movie. And now I'm bringing it to you for the first time

as an audiobook narrated by yours truly. The Big Short's story, what it means to bet against the market, and who really pays for an unchecked financial system, is as relevant today as it's ever been. Get the Big Short now at Pushkin.fm. slash audiobooks, or wherever audiobooks are sold. Tuesday's budget, as we've said, is taking steps to dial back the number of temporary residents coming to Canada.

The government aiming to admit 385,000 temporary residents next year, 43% fewer than the target in 2025. McEl Scudoruteroot is an economics professor at the University of Waterloo, director of the Canadian Labor Economics Forum. Good morning to you. Good morning, Matt. What do you make of how this budget is approaching immigration? Well, it's the first time we've had these immigration talks. targets within the budget. So that's something new. But I don't think there's much else new from

last year. I think for the most part, these numbers are on track. The big U-turn happened in the announcement one year ago. And that would, in terms of reducing the number of temporary students in particular, the looking at international students, is that what you're talking about there? I'm thinking more on the permanent resident side. The, you know, the, the, the, the targets on the, on the temporary resident side, the foreign workers and the students, that is also something that was entirely new last year. The one change or update maybe this year is that there's been a very clear drop in the target for foreign students. I think there's a lot of misinterpretation of what's actually happening there that we can talk about if you're interested. But yeah,

I think that's the only real change. Is there evidence, and this is the question that I asked the minister, is there evidence that cutting immigration will help with the concerns that Canadians have around housing? Yes. I mean, I think the way the minister framed it is correct that, you know, this is not just demand. It's not just more immigration. And it's not just supply. It's the two working together. I often display it to my econ students as like the way a pair of scissors works. You know, you don't cut the scissors with either one of the blades. They kind of work together to do something. And that's how demand and supply work in markets. So when you get a big, in any market, you get a big increase in demand and the supply doesn't respond because it's

diff, you know, we call that inelastic supply. It's difficult for supply to respond because of regulations. Then you're going to get increased prices. And that's what's happened. What about concerns around unemployment, specifically youth unemployment? Does this approach, as you've seen it around immigration, address that issue? Because Polling such as it is will tell you that that's one of the issues that Canadians are concerned about, that they believe that youth unemployment in particular has been impacted by the number of immigrants the country is welcoming. You know, putting exact numbers on these kinds of things, it's not binary. It's not whether

they have or not. Clearly, it has not made things better on the youth unemployment front, but there's something much more important at play. And that is that there's been a dramatic decline in the demand for lower skilled labor. You know, jobs that require high school or less, they have dropped from over 600,000 to less than 300,000 in less than three years. That has a dramatic impact on the ability of young people to find jobs in the first place. That's mainly what's driving the increase in youth unemployment. Is your sense that the changes that the federal government has made when it comes to immigration, is it based in in economic policy, or is this about politics?

I mean, the two can be linked, but what is your sense as to what's driving this? So, I mean, that's the part of the changes in immigration that these numbers don't address. What has really happened over the past decade is that Canada has moved from a very strict rules-based immigration system, economic immigration system, that uses a point system to determine and who is selected in the applicant pool. We've moved from that system to a very discretion-based system in which the minister of the day can sort of create special streams or programs to satisfy special interests.

So whether it's mayors and small towns that are seeing their towns declining, whether it's businesses that need labor, whether it's a Francophone lobby group that needs French speakers. And so the whole immigration system has become a patchwork that's very opaque, very non-transparent, very unpredictable. To me, that's the first order problem we have on the immigration front. Mikhail, we'll leave it there. And good to talk to you, as always.

Thank you very much. Thanks, Matt. Mikkel Skudor is an economics professor at the University of Waterloo, director of the Canadian Labor Economics Forum. The federal government is also planning to reduce the number of refugees and asylum seekers who come to this country each year. Warda Shazadee Meehan is a partner at Landings Law firm in Toronto, specializes in immigration and refugee law.

Warda, good to speak with you again. Good to have you here. Do you want to pick up just on what Mikhail said, that immigration policy in past has been kind of a patchwork and that there's been a lack of transparency? How would you see that? There has been a lack of transparency on some fronts, but what I would add to that is there's also been a mismatch between how we award points to certain human capital profile. So there's been a mismatch between what's immigration actually selecting. for and what the Canadian economy needs by the time the immigrant comes to Canada. So there are a number of policy glitches, I think, that have led us to where we are.

We have also seen, I mean, and there are stories about this, but you can talk to people who will tell you, immigrants who are leaving Canada because of high housing costs and inability perhaps to find the jobs that they thought would be promised here. and a belief that perhaps if you arrive here as a student or temporary foreign worker that permanent residency or citizenship would be in your future. Is that being a problem that you think needs to be addressed here or is being addressed here? That is certainly a problem that I'm seeing in my law practice, mismatched between what individuals who were coming to Canada thought they would be getting and what's actually happening. I think on the economic side and the temporary foreign worker side, the messaging and the recalibration is important and it was needed. I mean, we'll see how it plays out when the government actually implements this.

But I think being very clear with people before they come to Canada or before they spend years and years and years and application fees and lawyer fees to let them know what they will be in for is really important. And then they can make an informed decision. And that's been a huge problem in the past. I mentioned that the government is going to drop the number of refugees by more. than 10,000 next year, another additional 2000 in 2027 and 2028. What signal does that send

to refugees around the world? People who are fleeing conflict, persecution, and they see Canada or saw Canada as safe harbor? I think that there is a broader narrative and so the numbers tell one

part of what's happening, but there's also a number of other things that the government has done that shows which direction it's going in. So our refugee intake was already low by global standard. It's far below the per capita levels of countries like Germany or Turkey and many of our allies. And I think what we're seeing is not only a stabilization or a lower number, but we're also seeing that in combination with stricter temporary visa limits, expanded safe third country agreement, and increased border enforcement in the budget. And I think

All of that combined does lead to some questions about, you know, what is Canada's role in international refugee policy? We have a very significant reputation that means, you know, that we really need to honor the principle of refugee protection that's in our Constitution, that's an international law, and that the courts have repeatedly upheld and upheld as Canada's obligation. And so I think refugees looking at all of this from abroad might get a very discouraging messaging. But the other part of it is that refugees don't look at a country's policy in that way necessarily. And so a refugee who's deciding whether or not to come to Canada, they're often pushed by factors that are that, you know, they're not asylum shopping. They are going where they can to get safety for their family. And so I curious whether there's going to be an actual impact in our numbers because of these policies. Can I just ask you finally?

We're almost at a time. But again, there's a political dimension to this. Public polling suggests that sentiment around immigration is changing in this country. And what would you say to people who say, I mean, we're just talking about the housing crisis, but there's also issues when it comes to employment, resources like access to health care, that we have to rethink how many people we can bring in and who we bring in? I think that there is a very common prevalence of using the immigrant and refugee example to scapegoat for policy failures. So take the example of international students.

They shouldn't be scapegoats for housing failures. The housing failures, as Minister Robertson just mentioned, has been going on for decades. These are structural shortages. They're not caused by newcomers. They are the results of decades of underbuilding, restrictive zoning, labor shortages. And they're not from the international refugees or students that arrived two years ago. And a lot of these policy failures come from speculation and vacancy and not proper enforcement. And most students and refugees live in the margins.

And they're not competing for the detached houses. They are living in shared basement, single rooms, and overcrowded. department. So we really need to separate the myth from the evidence where we blame newcomers for structural policy failures. Orda, good to speak with you, as always. Thank you very much. Thank you for having me. Warder Shazadei Meehan is a partner at Landings Law firm in Toronto who specializes in immigration and refugee law. You've been listening to the current podcast. My name is Matt Galloway. Thanks for listening. I'll talk to you soon. For more CBC podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.