The Current - Canada to recognize Palestinian statehood.

Episode Date: July 31, 2025

Canada will now recognize Palestinian statehood, but under certain conditions.  Many in the Canadian Jewish community say this is not the right time.  Palestinians believe this is long overdue.  And what does this dramatic policy shift mean for Canada’s relationship with the U.S., as we negotiate a trade deal?

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Prime Minister Mark Carney has announced that Canada will recognize Palestinian statehood, but there are conditions. This intention is predicated on the Palestinian Authority's commitment to much needed reforms, including commitments by the Palestinian Authority's President Abbas to fundamentally reform its governance, to hold general elections in 2026 in which Hamas can play no part, and to demilitarize the Palestinian state. The Israeli Foreign Ministry says its government rejects Carney's move and overnight US President Donald Trump said the announcement could make a trade deal with Canada very hard. Noah Schaak is the CEO of the Centre for Israel and Jewish Affairs.

Noah, hello. Good morning. So what is your response to this move by the Canadian government? Well, it's a puzzling move. It doesn't seem to be advancing any practical solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict nor to the war that continues to rage in Gaza. The intention is predicated on commitments, vague commitments, by Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, who's notorious for

decades of corruption, a lack of democratic credibility, and support for terrorism, financial support for terrorism. So it doesn't seem to be something that's going to make any material change for the better. But at the same time, it seeks to recognize Palestinian statehood while Hamas remains in control of Gaza, continues to fight, and refuses to lay down its arms and end the war. And while hostages remain in captivity, that doesn't square with steps towards peaceful coexistence that I think all Canadians want to see moving forward. This plan doesn't seem to have a lot of

detail and doesn't seem to be based on any practical changes on the ground. That should be a basic requirement for changes in status of recognition. Well, the Prime Minister has asked that the Palestinian authority commit to making particular changes. He's talked about a need for improved governance, the desire to see elections happen in 2026. There is some amount of money that Canada had announced earlier this week, an additional $10 million to help with these governance reforms. And the Prime Minister also points to the international community, the fact other

partners are doing this, even a statement this week by Arab states saying that they want Hamas to have no part in any of this. To what extent does that offer you some reassurance that change would come with this? Well, to afford the Palestinian authority recognition as a state government in advance of any reforms actually taking place, in advance of any peace building on the ground to ensure that such a state would be positioned to live in peace and security and mutual recognition with Israel, and without any resolution to Hamas being in control of Gaza and the hostages remaining in Hamas captivity, I don't see how that is a meaningful step in the right direction. The facts on the ground will not have changed, and yet Canada will be extending a change in status and recognition and that that doesn't square for me. The Prime Minister did say that traditionally

Canada's hope with regards to a two-state solution would be that this recognition would come as part of a negotiated peace process and when he was asked about now why this is happening now he pointed in large part to actions taken by Israel, talking about settlements, what he described as Israel's failure to prevent rapidly deteriorating a humanitarian disaster in Gaza. Do you accept that that is part of what's motivating Canada here to try to address what is happening at this moment? Well, we all want to see a resolution to the humanitarian situation in Gaza. That is an absolute consensus position through and through. The question is how do we... The Israeli prime minister suggests that starvation isn't taking place.

Well, I don't speak for the Israeli prime minister. I speak for Jewish Canadians, and I'm telling you that there's an absolute consensus that no one wants to see anyone starving, no one wants to see any humanitarian challenge for anyone anywhere in the world, obviously. But when you have Hamas itself responding to these types of recognition with thanks and with praise, it seems clear that it's emboldening this terrorist organization to be more recalcitrant. The fact of the matter is that through these negotiations, whether under the Trump administration or the Biden administration, Israel has

repeatedly come to the table in support of ceasefire agreements that would have would give Hamas up to 95% of what they're asking according to the Biden administration negotiators. And yet, every single time Hamas has rejected those ceasefire agreements. So this was the dynamic at play most recently as the talks broke down. So I think the best way to resolve the situation is to actually get to a ceasefire, to actually put pressure on Hamas to act in good faith and end this war, release the hostages, and end its attacks on Israelis. That is how we're going to have a real resolution of the current crisis.

And only after we resolve the current crisis can there be a true pathway to peace Long term the Canadian government and Mark Kearney has been quite pointed about this insist that Hamas can play no role in in this future Palestinian state Others in the international community of we as we have noted have taken the same stance To what extent do you believe? Do you find comfort in that, in that insistence by the international community and the Canadian government?

Those are important words and an important stance, but practically what's the plan to make that happen? A commitment from Mahmoud Abbas, who has failed to deliver time and again on his commitments, that Hamas won't participate in elections that would happen a year from now. Okay, but what does that mean practically? How is this gonna come to fruition

that Hamas is gonna be removed from Gaza? The hostages are gonna come out, that Hamas will be disarmed and will no longer play a role in governing of the Palestinians. I think that's the key here. What's the plan? What's the plan? They're nice words.

It's an important sentiment. I think the intention is the right one to remove Hamas from the equation. But ultimately, if we're talking about building towards a two-state solution where Israelis and Palestinians can coexist in mutual recognition and in peace. There are more ingredients than just declaring that Hamas should have no role and we have to be very mindful about building that peace, making sure that steps, concrete steps, are taken on the ground in order to move us forward. And that starts with the end of this war, a ceasefire,

the removal of Hamas from Gaza, the release of the hostages, and of course humanitarian aid reaching the people in Gaza who need it. Okay, we are going to leave the conversation there. I thank you for your time this morning. Thank you, appreciate it. Noah Schach is the CEO of the Centre for Israel and Jewish Affairs. Did you know Canadian news is still banned on Instagram and Facebook? of the Center for Israel and Jewish Affairs. to unblock you from the news that matters most. Give us 10 minutes every morning and we'll give

you the biggest stories happening in Canada and around the world. You can find and follow World Report wherever you get your podcasts. We intend to bring you a representative of the perspective of Palestinian Canadians today. We are having some trouble making that connection right now. So we're going to continue this conversation with Thomas Junot. He's a professor at the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa and a former strategic analyst at the Department of National Defense with a focus on the Middle East. Thomas Junot, good morning. Good morning. I think what many Canadians may be asking themselves today is what does this mean? What changes, what is the effect of what Mark Kearney has said?

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c c c c c c c from international recognition by Canada or by France or by the UK as has been also announced. As of right now, a bit more than 140 states have recognized or will recognize Palestinian statehood, and that in reality does not mean that there will be a Palestinian state that can only come as a result of direct negotiations with Israel and the realities that were not there yet. So the answer to your question at this point is not much. The idea, the hope,

and it is in many ways a hope that that needs a lot of other conditions to be fulfilled, is that it can strengthen the Palestinian Authority, it's that it can help build momentum towards these direct negotiations. But as has been said a lot, including by your previous guest, a lot still has to happen before these direct negotiations. But as has been said a lot, including by your previous guest,

a lot still has to happen before we get there. With regards to the Palestinian Authority, Noah Shaq was raising a lot of questions about, you know, questions around corruption, questions around governance. There are certainly questions about support for Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian Authority.

Talk to us a little bit about the challenge that is posed by Canada and the international community placing so much hope in a fraught institution. So that's a good question and it's something that we need to talk a lot about more if there is to be serious debate as opposed to just you know, participants screaming on one side or the other about this issue. The Palestinian Authority governs the West Bank. It has not governed the Gaza Strip,

which Hamas has governed now for more than 15 years. The Palestinian Authority is the de facto government of the West Bank and, ideally, of the Gaza Strip at some point. It is an institution that is weak, that is fragmented, that is deeply corrupt, that is absolutely true, institution that is weak, that is fragmented, that is

deeply corrupt, that is absolutely true, and that is viewed by many Palestinians as not very legitimate. And that's a big problem. The challenge, however, is that from my perspective, at least, there is simply no alternative to the Palestinian Authority. There is no other more legitimate, quote unquote, Palestinian government or authority that could emerge out of thin air in the next months or years or whenever. So the Palestinian Authority, as flawed as it is, and it is flawed, is the best that we have,

or at least the least bad that there is in terms of a negotiation partner to have some kind of peace process at some point. That's why, given that realism, countries like Canada, like Britain, like France, really have no choice but to try to support the Palestinian Authority to boost its capacities, but also to try to boost its legitimacy. The actual moment of recognizing statehood when there is not sort of a de facto elected government. I wonder if we could just sort of pause on that

for a moment. It is certainly something that critics of this move are making, yet at the same time, I'm sure there have been moments where we, or to what extent have we previously seen the world recognize a state that does not have a government with strong democratic support in place? Well, first of all, the democratic dimension does not matter, right?

But ideally, states would be democratic. Ideally the Palestinian Authority would be democratic as anybody else. But in practice, in terms of recognition, in terms of statehood, democraticness is not a recognized criteria. Many states, unfortunately, but that's the reality, are around and they're not democratic and they're still state and Canada still recognizes them. So that aspect, we can kind of divorce it from the discussion. Not to say that it's not important.

I think Canada is right to try to incentivize the pressure that has an authority to democratize the hold elections, but it's not per se a necessarily a condition. I only have a moment left with you, Tomas, you know, and I do want to ask about Donald Trump in all of this because as we were saying previously, he posted overnight on social media that this plan for recognition will make it very hard for us to make a trade deal with them, them being Canada. What do you think the impact is going to be for Canada here?

So as anything with Donald Trump, it's extremely unpredictable. At the very least, I think it's a plausible assumption that this is Trump adding pressure on Canada to extract last minute concessions as part of the trade negotiations that are ongoing. That being said, it is a concern that he would say that, because from my perspective, I've been calling on Canada to recognize Palestinian statehood for a while now, so I do agree with the decision,

even though I'm realistic that it's one small step among many, many others necessary to get to an actual two-state solution. That being said, right now, as we speak, foreign policy priorities, one, two, three, four, and five for Canada, is managing the relationship with the U.S. Everything else has to be secondary and far behind, including Israel-Palestine, including anything else. So to me, the risk with recognition now, especially at such a crunch time in negotiations with the U.S, was always that this would make these negotiations more complicated. And to me, the reality is that that might have been reason enough to at least wait on the Canadian side. The government decided not to wait.

What kind of risk assessment was there in terms of dealing with Trump? I'm not sure, but that clearly was a risk. Okay, we're going to have to leave this conversation there. Thank you for your time, University of Ottawa Professor Tamar Junao. Thank you. Diana Butu is a Palestinian Canadian lawyer and former advisor to the negotiating team of the Palestinian Liberation Organization. We've reached her in Toronto. Good morning. Good morning. Good morning to you. What do you see as the effect of Canada making this decision to recognize Palestinian statehood in September? Well, I would have much rather preferred that Canada recognize Israel's ongoing genocide

of Palestinians. And the reason I would have much rather preferred that is that from there, there are obligations that flow and Canada would then take it upon itself to stop Israel and stop the United States from carrying out these actions. As it stands, I don't think that there is going to be any effective change other than to say that they recognize something, but unless that recognition is matched by deeds. So unless, for example, Canada says to Israel that the settlements are illegal, we're going

to now start putting in sanctions against Israel for continuing the construction of these settlements and so on, I just don't see that it's going to have any positive effect. So I would have much rather seen a recognition that leads to some positive change rather than just something that's quite symbolic. And Israel has denied those allegations of genocide throughout this conflict. I wonder when it comes to what is happening on the ground at this moment vis-a-vis the danger of mass starvation. Is what Canada is doing, what some Western countries, a growing number are doing, likely to have any effect in the immediate time

in terms of the pressure it puts on Israel or just allowing further aid into Gaza? Well, you know, every country that has carried out genocide denies that they're carrying out a genocide. That comes with the territory, and so I'm not at all surprised that Israel's denying it. But we have to look at what the records of other countries, other human rights organizations, including Israeli organizations who are calling it a genocide. But whether you're looking at it from that perspective or looking at it from the perspective of what is happening or not happening on the ground, the fact that Palestinians have not gotten any food in, and this is an area that's completely

blockaded. They can't grow their own food. They can't bring it in from another country. It all depends on Israel. And the fact that we've seen this now for close to two years, and in particular over the course of the past two months with no change, I'm afraid that we are getting to the worst of humanity. We're already seeing that children are dying in numbers because of this starvation. And while I'm not a physician, my friends

who are physicians are telling me that we might be reaching the point of no return. That's very dangerous. And unless there is concrete action now to force Israel to stop these policies. I really fear the worst. Canada has this week, in terms of what it is announcing for support, it says that aid is spring loaded, I believe, was the term the prime minister used and ready to go if indeed aid can get into the territory. But in terms of looking towards statehood, Canada has put much of its emphasis on helping the Palestinian Authority enact

reforms, pushing them to enact reforms and indeed to hold elections in 2026. Do you think that that is feasible? Again, I'm not really so concerned about all of those, the machinery of statehood, because I don't think that even the machinery of statehood is going to end what Israel is doing now. I would have much rather preferred that Canada recognize that this is an ongoing occupation, the denial of freedom, and rather than put in to place more steps to appease Israel or to appease others, we're now in a world where we should be looking at freedom and saying people deserve to be free. It doesn't matter what conditions,

we shouldn't be thinking of conditions, we should be thinking about freedom. Al-Zain's have waited long enough for this and to hear more and more conditions from the international community is just going to set us even further back. So I just want to understand. The time is to end the occupation now. Diana, we only have a moment here. I just want to understand you're suggesting there should be no conditions on improving the state of the Palestinian Authority to allow them to conduct elections.

Palestinians should be the ones determining their own future. It shouldn't be up to Canada or any other country to be putting conditions forward. Let Palestinians do it, not the international community. Okay. We appreciate this. I'm sorry we don't have much time, but thank you for this conversation this morning. Thank you. Thank you.

Diana Butu is a Palestinian Canadian lawyer and former advisor to the negotiating team of the Palestinian Liberation Organization. We reached her in Toronto. You've been listening to The Current Podcast. My name is Matt Galloway. Thanks for listening. I'll talk to you soon.