The Current - Canada's retaliatory tariffs kick in tomorrow - then what?

Episode Date: September 7, 2026

Our national affairs panel, CBC's Rosemary Barton, the Toronto Star's Ryan Tumility and Stephanie Levitz from the Globe and Mail, join us to unpack the latest, and what they'll be watching for from the Prime Minister in the coming weeks.

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This is a CBC podcast. Hello, I'm Matt Galloway, and this is the current podcast. It is Labor Day, and for many, that marks the unofficial end of summer, the last day before back to school, back to the office, back to reality. There are still two more weeks before the House is back in session, but the trade war is in full force, with Canada set to impose dollar-for-dollar retaliatory tariffs on more than $27 billion worth of U.S. goods as of tomorrow. Add to that, a Quebec provincial election and Alberta F referendum on the horizon, there is an awful lot to talk about.

And so our national affairs panel is here. Rosemary Barton is the CBC's chief political correspondent and the host of Rosemary Barton live. Ryan Tomlty is a political reporter with the Toronto Star. He's in Ottawa and Stephanie Levitt's senior reporter in the Globe and Mail's Ottawa Bureau. Good morning, everyone. Good morning. Welcome back. Everybody have a nice summer. Not much news.

Pretty quiet, all things is considered. Maybe not so much. Rosie, the retaliatory terrorists are set to go into place just after, what, midnight, eastern time. That does not seem to be an off-ramp in front of the federal government. No, there isn't one. And anyone that you talk to in government tells you, well, A, that there's no formal negotiations happening. I would say there's barely any exchange of anything happening. There's some texting going on between James and G.

Greer and Minister LeBlanc. It sounds like the president and the prime minister have had no communication since this fell apart. And the prime ministers made it pretty clear and others in the government as well that they expect the Americans to come back first. So that sounds pretty bleak, right? And that means that as of 1201 today or tomorrow morning, these counter-terrorists are going to go into effect. And I think the question then becomes, what are the Americans going to do? There are signs as they've said as much that they will hit back. How hard, how quickly, and what? We don't know. But it could be a much more serious escalation than us just retaliating. Ryan, economists on both sides of the borders say that this is going to increase prices,

both in Canada and in the United States. Take a look at this country. How do you think Canadians are going to feel the pain of these? retaliatory tariffs? They are definitely going to feel the pain of these retaliatory tariffs. They're not just going to feel it though in prices. They're going to feel it in job losses. There are going to be job losses for this. But I would say what I have been struck by

over the last two weeks when it has really become clear that this is what we were headed for, that we weren't going to find a resolution, that the relationship was going to be pretty significantly damaged, is that Canadians, by and large, are on board with that. Canadians understand this is going to cause economic pain and they want to do it anyways.

And so, you know, I mean, there's thinking that you want to do that and then actually experiencing it and we'll see how that goes over the next month or two. But by and large, Canadians really seem on board with this fight and they're not really eager to relent. And I don't think the president particularly helps that cause when he starts renaming lakes and things like that. Renaming lakes and spending much of his free time, apparently posting on his, social media app, he was posting Steph that apparently America owns the moon, that there was an

image he put up of him as a hockey player telling Mark Carney to get up, calling him the governor. You have his posts about how apparently the exchange rate between Canada and the United States is, in his words, unacceptable. You have insults coming as well from the Commerce Secretary, from any number of the Defense Secretary, any number of other affiliates of Donald Trump. How much pain and uncertainty do you think Canadians are willing to take in the face of all of that? I mean, it's a fair question, right? And just as, you know, the counterterriffs that the Canadian government is putting into place are meant to exert political pressure on certain American states where midterms are coming,

where things are looking potentially tenuous for Republicans, maybe, what are Canadians willing to do for the government, right? How much sacrifice is they're willing to be? And it's an interesting thing because Mark Carney, In talking about this trade war, in putting forward the billions of dollars and supports for various sectors, tariff, release, he's never really talked about that part of the bargain here, that thing that he's asking Canadians to do. And he's skirted the issue of how much sacrifice may or may not be required by Canadians, the pressure this might cause, and then in turn some kind of political pressure that might follow. But that's maybe a normal times political argument, and these are not normal times. And as Ryan pointed out, Canadians are much more on side, it seems, with this elbows up, punch the guy in the nose approach than they were with concession after concession after concession.

But the belief is there will be a cost. Have a listen to what the prime minister said last week after the liberals won three by-elections. Canadians are united and Canadians are ready. We've been buying Canadian. We've been visiting Canada. We've been reinforcing our strength here at home and diversifying our partnerships abroad. That's been the plan of this government since the start. We've been putting in place. It's working. So Steph, pick up on that because he says the plan is working, but we also know that Canada lost, what, 42,000 jobs in August? And so to your point, what does he need to say or what does he need to do that perhaps he hasn't said or done yet to deliver to Canadians to ensure that that support stays

in the face of, for example, jobs disappearing? Part of it, you know, there's a section, I think, not insignificant, one of the population that looks at this and says, we understand diversification, we understand looking for new markets. I read a piece about honey bee or honey manufacturers in Alberta, you know, looking to the UAE, for example, trying to find a new market. But the reality is the United States remains our largest trading partner, right? And so the tension that this trade war places on that relationship, Mr. Carney has to get the buy-in from Canadians that this is a long-term play that he is making. This is not an overnight solution.

solution. And the challenge with that becomes, you know, people in the world we're in, it's instantaneous results, instantaneous gratification. And how does he keep Canadians on board for, you know, where we're at, which is the grind part of a marathon. It's grinding it out to try and find these new markets, attract new investment, build new jobs, build new industries, pivot domestically. That takes a lot of hard work. And do people, Canadians want to do that work? Mr. Carney's going have to convince them that they do. Melanie Jolie is the industry minister, and she has spoken about the strategy behind these tariffs, particularly after the trade talks fell apart. Have a listen. Of course, we needed to make sure that we were going to go after really important products that are

strategic. We are putting pressure clearly on different states and different people. We don't want to do this, but we have to do this because it's a question of protecting jobs. and our economy. Rosie, how could the tariffs put pressure on U.S. states when midterms are on the horizon, particularly in states that are on the bubble? Yeah, and that's what the government did, right? They looked at swing states, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, for instance, Ohio, I think, is going to be the hardest hit of the swing states. If that starts to be felt, and I don't know how quickly that will happen, to be honest, but, you know, there's a couple of months here to go before the midterms, could they start to see, as Ryan has predicted, we will, job losses,

industries hurting, et cetera. The things that they chose, as well that the government chose, are also intended to have maximum impact, aluminum, again, which is very problematic for the United States. And then things like appliances that could also hurt Americans. One thing that I've noticed with the Trump administration officials talking about the counterteriffs is they seem to just sort of blow it off and say this has very minimal impact on our economic growth. Fair enough. But when you get into a state, a city, a town, it actually has really damaging impact inside a smaller economy. And I think that's probably what they're misreading. But whether or not it has, whether or not there's enough there to get Republicans upset and banging at the president's door,

honestly, I'm not sure. When we were in Atlantic Canada, we spent some time in New Brunswick with Mack McKenna, former Canadian ambassador to the United States, former New Brunswick Premier, sat out on his deck overlooking the ocean and he said the tide goes out and the tide comes in. And essentially we need to run, we as a nation, need to run the clock here to wait out Donald Trump. Rosie, do you think that is an appropriate strategy? I think it goes back to what Steph is saying. Canadians are on the government side. I mean, look at those by-elections, right?

The liberals took all three of them. the issues were largely about trade and standing up to Donald Trump. I think that's what motivated that vote. So, yeah, I mean, we can wait them out, but we can't wait them out. The government can't wait them out if there's no payoff on the other side. If the domestic things that Mr. Carney, the prime minister, is doing, don't start to see results. You know, he's got this big investment summit coming up next week in Toronto, where the government's trying to play matchmaker with other countries and big business.

and Canadian projects that are ready to go, you're not going to see the results of that immediately, but that's the kind of thing that they need to keep doing so that they can say to Canadians, like, yeah, we're waiting them out, but we're also putting our attention back here, and we're trying to focus on how to strengthen the economy right now. Let's go to the X.

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License RAF 156-8077. Come and celebrate Toronto and do everything you want to have the X. Ryan, there were these by-elections last week, and the Liberals won all three. Their second hat trick of the year, where does that, in this conversation, where does that leave the conservative? Conservatives and NPR Pahliav.

Yeah, I mean, two of those by-elections, the conservatives, didn't really have a shot in. But I think the one that should concern them is Chukotomi. I know it is the one that does concern them. That's in Quebec. It was a riding held by a conservative MP, and the liberals took it after having placed third just last year. So, you know, that has to concern the conservatives, because I'm sure there are a bunch of conservatives MPs who are now thinking, well, if we couldn't hold chakutomi, can we hold my seat? And there are more tests like that for the conservatives coming up. So, you know, I think the conservatives are trying to find a voice in all of this,

and I think they are raising some really legitimate questions about what exactly was in the deal that we didn't sign or almost signed. I think they are raising some questions about the economic pain that these tariffs are going to bring. But I think they're finding a Canadian public that's just much more in a fight with the Americans' mood than I think anyone could have anticipated. I mean, you know, how many Canadians do we all know who haven't traveled to the U.S. in years who are looking for Canadian products in the grocery stores, you know, trying to buy strawberries in January in this country isn't easy, but people are doing it. So where does that leave Pierre-Polive? How much more difficult is it for him to be an

opposition leader if, and oppose what the government is doing if generally, Ryan, people not universally, but generally there is a sentiment of people supporting what the government is doing in this fight. Yeah, it does make it difficult. I don't think it's easy to be a opposition leader during a moment of national unity, frankly. You're, you know, an opposition leader of any political stripe is looking for a little bit of discord, a little bit of people who are frustrated with the way the country is being run, and there aren't as many of those people as there were a year ago. So it's going to be hard for them. That said, things change. You know, what goes up, comes down. And again, the prime minister is walking into a world with a whole bunch of Canadians standing behind him right now.

But those people might change their mind over the course of a year. And, you know, as much as we're all thinking that maybe the midterms will change everything, that maybe Donald Trump will have to back down, protectionist sentiment runs through both parties in the U.S. Democrats can be pretty protectionist as well. Joe Biden was pretty protection. By America. Yeah. So, you know, that sentiment maybe isn't going away. It's just in a future administration will be presented nicer with less memes, but it still potentially is going to be there. Steph, where do you see that liberal momentum going, especially because there are, what, at least five more by-elections that are on the horizon? Yeah, it's a good question. I mean, one thing to watch for is

who was Mark Carney able to recruit to run for the party? You know, the last sort of run of by-elections. Some interesting choices, right, for a party that appears to be on the upswing and for a prime minister who seems to like to bring in private sector executives that he's known his whole life to run major government initiatives like the defense procurement agency and others, right? So I'm looking to see what that momentum means for Mark Carney. And then the converse, of course, for Pierre Polly of, who wants to run to be a conservative right now when there's so much on the down swing. But with the liberals, it is clear that Mark Carney has something in his head that he wants to do with the country, right? He wants to pivot away. He wants to build new markets. He wants to

bring in billions and billions of dollars of foreign investment. So like all governments, he's going to need to take all of that action. And as we've talked about so many times, turn it into tangible results for people. And that's, for now, he has that political goodwill on. And that, for now, he has that political goodwill on side. He has Canadians who are elbows up, buying, you know, doing what they can to support domestic production. And he's got to keep them there. And that's right now what the goodwill buys him. But any government is only one bad scandal away from all of that goodwill evaporating in an instant. Rosie, do you see that goodwill playing out in Quebec? You have a provincial election there. The PQ could win. The polls are pretty tight, but I mean, they can change as well. Does that

goodwill play in Quebec right now? It might. I mean, what that chikudami by-election results, I think, told the leader of the Patsi-Kibbecois was that the issue of trade and standing up to Donald Trump is concerning in Quebec. That's why he also put off any talk of a referendum until after Donald Trump is gone. And I mean, you know, the Patsi-Kibekua wants a referendum until it becomes political inconvenient for a win. And that's what we saw again here. I think that was good news for the Premier, Premier Frischette, who's holding a cabinet meeting, I think today to talk about things that the government can do to help Quebec through this with the counter-tariffs. I think it's

only helpful to a Federalist Party in Quebec this issue. What's so fascinating to me is how this issue is sort of, it's just resonating right across the country, right, too. I mean, with Alberta, the Alberta referendum, it literally affects every little microcosm of politics right now. And it's hard to get a read on how you can do anything but sort of stand up for Canada. And in the case of Quebec, that makes it really hard for the Patsy-Cubeck. Which is why tomorrow we wanted to talk to Canadians. I mean, I've been doing this, and I'm sure you have two over the course of the summer, fall fairs and barbecues and everything in between, about how people.

people feel about this country. And so we are going to ask listeners coast to coast to coast to call in with the answer to that question. How do you feel about Canada in this moment? And not to put you on the spot individually, but how, Ryan, do you think, how are you weighing that question? And how do you think Canadians are thinking about that question right now? Yeah. I mean, you are a spot a little bit here, Matt. But, you know, I have always thought that this country can be more than the sum of its parts. I've always thought that this country has the potential for even more greatness than it has now. And I think that is being tested in this moment. But I think Canadians are finding out that there is more about this country than just not being

American. And I think people are enjoying what they're seeing about this country. As much as we have problems, as much as there are lots of issues. I think a lot of Canadians are seeing this. as a refuge and a lot of people around the world are seeing Canadians as leaders right now. We are seeing that and I think that's important. Steph? I think we're in a moment of time where the country is moving towards a collective of people as opposed to the individualistic identity politics that characterized a lot of the last decade. That it's not about what's best for me, the individual.

we are shifting some of our thinking to what is best for this country in the longer term. At least that's what I hope. And that's positive, right? In an era of silos, in an era of social media algorithm, in an era of rage politics, this idea where we're considering the collective, not the individual, maybe is a positive thing going forward. Rosie, last word to you. Yeah, I'll pick up on something Ryan said. I think that certainly through my childhood and adolescence, a lot of being Canadian was defined by what we're not in relation to the United States.

I would say that's kind of how I grew up. I feel that has really flipped. I feel like it is now who we are. We are all sort of defining ourselves by who we are. And I don't mean that in a political way, right? You can be conservative and be proudly Canadian too, obviously. So it's not an endorsement of what the government's doing. But I think that there is a really interesting thing, and I'll be curious to see what your callers say,

happening around our identity as Canadians because we are so put off by the Trump administration and the way it is needlessly attacking this country. And that's a patriotism, sure, and it's something that Canadians aren't always comfortable with. I think that Canada's getting pretty comfortable with it. And that's kind of nice to see. I'm really glad I asked you the question, and I'm glad that you were willing to answer it. Live on the radio, these things happen.

Thank you all for being here this morning. Thanks. Rosemary Barton is the CBC's chief political correspondent, Ryan Tomolty, political reporter with the Toronto Star, and Stephanie Levitts is a senior reporter in the Global Mail's Ottawa Bureau. You've been listening to the current podcast. My name is Matt Galloway. Thanks for listening.

I'll talk to you soon. For more CBC podcasts, go to cBC.ca slash podcasts. Thank you.