The Current - Carney meets Trump today. Will it be a repeat of Zelenskyy’s visit?

Episode Date: May 6, 2025

What kind of reception awaits Prime Minister Mark Carney at the White House? The Liberal leader meets U.S. President Donald Trump this afternoon, but some observers are mindful of the public disparaging that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy endured in the Oval Office earlier this year. Matt Galloway talks to experts who’ve been at these types of meetings to discuss how Carney can manage the risk and make the best case for Canada.

1942, Europe. Soldiers find a boy surviving alone in the woods. They make him a member of Hitler's army. But what no one would know for decades, he was Jewish. Could a story so unbelievable be true? I'm Dan Goldberg. I'm from CBC's personally, Toy Soldier. Available now wherever you get your podcasts. This is a CBC Podcast. Hello, I'm Matt Galloway and this is the current podcast. Today is the day Prime Minister Mark Carney is meeting with US President Donald Trump

face to face in the White House. Donald Trump was asked about the meeting yesterday. What's your expectation for your meeting with the Canadian Prime Minister tomorrow? I don't know, he's coming to see me. I'm not sure what he wants to see me about, but I guess he wants to make a deal. Everybody does. They all want to make a deal because we have something that they all want. Mark Carney made negotiations with Donald Trump a cornerstone of his campaign, arguing he

would be best placed to shepherd Canada through tariffs and annexation threats. So will he be able to make a case for Canada? Katie Simpson is the CBC's Washington correspondent. Katie, good morning. Good morning. People are describing this as a high-stakes meeting. What can we expect to come out of said high-stakes meeting? Well, if things go well from the Canadian perspective, this is really an opportunity

to reset the relationship for Donald Trump and Mark Carney to get some face time. And so that perhaps the Canada US relationship can return to a more constructive and respectful working dialogue. Ultimately, the goal for Canada, of course, is to get to a place where there can be trade negotiations where perhaps tariffs can finally come off. Ultimately, the goal for Canada, of course, is to get to a place where there can be trade negotiations, where perhaps tariffs can finally come off. But in terms of big picture breakthrough, the expectations have been lowered around that.

This is really being seen as a moment to reset the relationship, sort of to get things to a better place eventually. We just heard the president say he's not entirely sure why Mark Carney is going going to meet him on meet the press on the weekend He said that the prime minister is a very nice man Do we have any indication as to how? Donald Trump will deal with Canada's new prime minister

In comparison perhaps to how he treated the former prime minister Justin Trudeau So the slight the early indications that we've seen is he's taking on a slightly more respectful tone. He's not calling Mark Carney governor the way he called Justin Trudeau governor, but he's still sort of saying and doing the same things, right? Even though perhaps maybe he's toning that rhetoric down, he hasn't done anything to indicate that the tariffs are coming off. He hasn't pulled back from his 51st state rhetoric, and it still remains his position

that he thinks that Canada would be better served to be part of the United States. And then perhaps he would stop complaining about different ways that Canada and the United States work together. But, you know, at this point, we are seeing indications that he's treating Prime Minister Mark Carney a little bit different than Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, but this moment where they're going to be on camera together in the

Oval Office, this is really going to sort of set the baseline tone for where we can expect things to go. Which is why people are calling this high stakes. At the beginning of our conversation you said if this goes well. The nightmare scenario I think for people in the prime minister's office and beyond is a Zelensky situation where the US president turns, as he did on Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky. As you understand it, what contingency plans are being made should that unfold? So what I am sort of understanding from people who are sort of in the know in Ottawa who provide advice on this. It's that you have to find a way to, you know, stand up for yourself, stand up for Canada,

but you know, also give Trump sort of the space to do what Trump likes to do to put on a show in front of reporters. But when it comes to things like the 51st state, or it comes to those points of disagreement, it's going to be a challenge for Mark Carney, because how do you sort of navigate the temperamental president and sort of, you know, stand up for Canada, but at the same time, not have this devolve into sort of a shouting match

in the Oval Office, which would be obviously worst case scenario, if this is gonna be the meeting where they reset the relationship, that's obviously not how the PMO wants this to go. So it is a delicate dance. It will certainly be the toughest challenge of Prime Minister Carney's, you know, very short start to his term in office, the biggest challenge right away, dealing with it immediately. And so really, it is a delicate balance that he is going to sort of have to navigate here. You could imagine that many people around the world

will be watching this in part because we saw elections in Australia, for example. Many people thought that those elections turned on the presence, not that he was actually on the ballot, but the involvement of Donald Trump. You have people still remembering what happened when Keir Starmer, the UK Prime Minister, was in the Oval Office. You can imagine that there's a lot at stake and a

lot of people will be paying attention to how Mark Carney responds to the moment. Absolutely. And remember, Canada is the United States' closest ally. Even if the relationship is in a really bad point right now, the rest of the world is looking to see how Donald Trump treats an ally. We have seen some examples, again, Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, he is an ally of the United States and that went really, really poorly. And so again, Canada and the United States, traditionally that relationship runs so deep, the economies are intertwined, the defense apparatus is so intertwined. And yet the relationship is at such a sour point.

And the rest of the world will certainly be looking to see if perhaps Mark Carney can find a way to sort of navigate Donald Trump. And there may perhaps be moments that other world leaders can look to to learn from or learn from in a good way or in a bad way. It doesn't necessarily mean things are gonna go well because you can't predict Donald Trump. Katie we will be watching thank you very much. Thanks. Katie Simpson CBC's Washington correspondent. David Patterson is Ontario's representative in

Washington he's in DC this morning David good morning to you. Good morning Matt. The Prime Minister has said don't look for a puff of smoke coming out of this meeting a puff of white smoke in particular, suggesting that nothing will be decided on coming out of this meeting. But from your perspective, what would make this a successful trip? Well, I think the goal is ultimately to schedule another meeting. I don't really think that as much time as is being given to this that there's an expectation of further tariff relief immediately. It's really more about, as Katie has said, restarting the relationship. There'll

be some airing of grievances and the like. But keep in mind, we've also cleared a lot of the underbrush for this discussion over the past months through the premiers working here. And I think that sets us up perhaps better than many others. The suggestion was, even as the campaign was unfolding, that there was work happening in the background and that that perhaps led Mark Carney and others not to speak as forcefully against the US president as he continued to talk about 51st state, for example. Just, I mean, in, in, in, to peel that back a little bit, is your sense that, that some ground has been laid for this meeting so that Mark Carney, the prime minister, is walking in with a sense as to what is actually possible?

Yeah, I mean, I think it's important from the perspective of those of us here in Washington to realize that a lot has changed really since the beginning of the liberal leadership and the election campaign. Canadians were all focused on that. But down here, the rest of the world caught up to Canada in terms of tariffs in that time period. And certainly on April 2nd, the world changed in significant ways. Countries, major trading partners saw proposed tariffs over 50% and then it sort of settled down to 10%, zero for Canada. And the second thing really is that after that with the reaction of the bond markets and others, we saw the markets wanting to be calmed. And we've been able to, working with Secretary

Lutnick and Ambassador Greer, make some real progress, particularly in the auto sector and other areas to see some mitigation of the tariffs in Canada. And I think that's because the Trump administration does want to see some confidence returning inside the United States for investment, but they can't do it without our supply chain and some of the other things from Canada. And so that can be to our benefit. And as I say, that sort of clears some of the underbrush in preparation for the re-engagement

of the federal government today. I'll come back to the auto sector in a moment, but to Katie's point, how worried are you that Mark Carney is Zelenskyd in the Oval Office? No, I mean, I think that's more the drama in the window dressing. But we saw that in real time and we saw that to Katie's point with a US ally. Yeah, but I'm not so worried about that. I know that Mark Carney will be well-schooled and able to manage through that. What we found in the last several months in working with

the administration is that, you know, coming from a position of strength as we did with Premier Ford, but taking a pragmatic and a fact-based and outcome-oriented approach, those are really our watchwords, and they did pay some dividends. And importantly, to be able to talk to the Americans in terms of their own self-interest, rather than lecturing them. And so those types of sort of watchwords, I think, are the way to get to the next meeting and be successful. So how should he respond if Donald Trump,

if the US president says Canada isn't a real country, that the border is not real, and that we should just become the 51st state. I think you step back and you focus on the fact that you have some great strength at home. You have things, as the president says, we have something in the states they all need. That's their market.

But we have things in Canada that they need as well. They do need our critical minerals and energy. They do need our potash. They do need our critical minerals and energy. They do need our potash. They do need all those things and they know it. We see that they know that. I think go in with confidence knowing that that's the case and knowing you have a major project on your hands at home to take down internal trade barriers and speed up approvals and move on pipelines and invest in defense. And I think that last part will be an important part of the discussion today because we really

can step up and the prime minister has suggested that we will. In terms of North American defense, that's a really high area of interest, especially as the focus on China dominates things here in Washington. You mentioned the auto sector and you know that sector well, having worked for GM for many years, we are already seeing job losses in that sector. We talked yesterday in this program about some 750 people in Oshawa at the GM plant there, who could be out of work by the fall. You have Stellantis that is altering its schedules for the next three months and then a third shift is going to be postponed. The economic development minister

of Ontario says that the province will suit up to fight against possible tariffs against films, for example. When you take a look at all of this, this is already happening. What do you think it's going to take to convince the president to back off these tariffs? I think his own self-interest. I honestly do. And do you think he understands that self-interest? Do you think, you said that, you know, the United States needs Canada, but do you think he sees that? Well, I think he does. And I know his Commerce Secretary does and others do.

And so I think we have to separate signal from noise and realize that part of the art of the deal is to upset people. And at the same time, we are a critical, probably the most critical ally for the United States. And so it's really important to keep that in mind. I think that's something that really should give the Prime Minister confidence going into the meeting and I know it does.

So do you take him at his word when he says he's looking at 100% tariff on the film industry? I mean, you've said in the past that it's not time to panic yet when it comes to these tariffs. A lot of people, if they're not reaching for the panic button, they're trying to figure out where the panic button is. Well, I think people are trying to figure out exactly what that would mean.

I think good lawyers would give you more interpretation, but I think it's hard to understand how putting a tariff on one of the United States' largest exports in IP-based digital industries, you want to sell more of it if you're the United States' largest exports and IP-based digital industries. You want to sell more of it if you're the United States, not restrict the movie industry. So it's really hard to understand how a tariff applies to a service in something like this.

So much more discussion, I think, to be had on something like that. I think it's important to focus on the relationship, and I think it's absolutely right that the Prime Minister has signaled that this is a discussion about security as well as the economy. And I think there's lots of good mutual ground to be worked on in that. David, good to talk to you as always. Thank you. Thanks, Matt. David Patterson, Ontario's representative in Washington, DC. Hey there, I'm David Common. If you're like me, there are things you love about living in the GTA and things that drive you absolutely crazy. Every day on This Is Toronto, we connect you to what

matters most about life in the GTA, the news you got to know, and the conversations your friends will be talking about. Whether you listen on a run through your neighborhood or while sitting in the parking lot that is the 401. Check out This Is Toronto wherever you get your podcasts. Kelly Anne Shaw is a former senior White House trade advisor. She was also deputy assistant to Donald Trump on international economic affairs during his first term. Kelly Anne Shaw, good morning to you. Good morning. People have talked about resetting this relationship between Canada and the United States and that that reset could happen today in a face-to-face meeting between the president

and the prime minister. From your perspective, what would that reset look like? Yeah, and I do see this as an opportunity for a real reset. I think that the relationship was at an all-time low during Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's tenure. It seemed to improve when he stepped down. Trudeau and Trump had a long history of dealing with one another, and it had clearly not gone well, particularly towards the end. So really, I think that the only way to go directionally in this relationship is up. But that said, President Trump is a really relational guy. And I saw him interact with a number of world leaders. And I do think that this in-person meeting, this chance to talk

off camera, behind closed doors, to really build that natural chemistry is a huge part of this bilateral relationship between the United States and Canada. How do you understand the change in relationship? I mean, the president is not calling the prime minister governor anymore. What's going on there? Yeah, as I said, I think part of it was personal towards the end. There seemed to be no love loss between Trudeau and President Trump, frankly, going both ways. And so I think having a new person to interact with and to discuss some of these same issues

is going to help improve the dynamic. Again, President Trump is very relational. And so I think to the extent that Prime Minister Carney is really spending time developing that relationship, it's likely to pay out in dividends in terms of some of these policy outcomes. You've worked with the president closely. What is he looking for in those relationships with other people? Yeah, I think it's about taking the United States concerns seriously and not dismissing

them out of hand. And I think Canada and the United States are the best of friends, but also just given the size of the trading relationship, the size of the border, have a number of bilateral concerns that have been discussed for decades now. And the president has talked about some of them, including dairy and lumber. He recently this week raised some of the subsidies in the film industry. He's been pretty transparent about some of these economic concerns and he's also raised things like military assistance. So I think those will be the issues that will likely be discussed between the

prime minister and president Trump this week. Can you help people understand what's going on with these announcements? To a lot of people, they are incomprehensible. The president would make an announcement. It would be walked back perhaps the next day, another announcement would come. Now he's talking about terrifying, on movies for example. I mean, what's going on behind the scenes? Because from a distance, as people watch it, it feels that there is an improvised element to it. Is there more structure that's happening behind the scenes?

Yeah, I definitely think there is, and there definitely was during the first administration when I served. I think what's happening is there are so many announcements happening almost every single day that it's difficult to keep up with the pace. And those announcements make sense to you? Yeah, every announcement is based on a slightly different rationale. So the fentanyl tariffs, which impact Canada in particular, are based on concerns about the number of deaths related

to fentanyl. There's a concern that Chinese chemicals, precursors, drugs are coming in through both Mexico and Canada. And so tariffs are being used effectively as a replacement for US sanctions policies and other type of policies in the national security space. And then separately, you've got these tariffs on certain supply chains that are critical for US national security, like steel, aluminum, automotive, and those are designed to increase domestic production, but they're also separate from some of the reciprocal tariffs, which are based on unfairness, uneven treatment, as well as this baseline tariff, which is really about the trade deficit.

So there are a lot of different messages coming out of the White House in terms of what they're trying to address. And tariffs are the common tool that's being used, but they all serve a different purpose. And part of it too is this swirl, the speed of these announcements, the different breadth of announcements,

that's part of the president's negotiating strategy and style as well. And so there's always this ambiguity, there's always this uncertainty in dealing with him. But again, that's part of a broader negotiation. And certainly Canada, the United States and Mexico as well have the most to gain from resolving some of these issues, figuring out a path forward and strengthening the North American market as a whole.

We're just about out of time. Let me just quickly ask you, what about this talk of the 51st state, that the border is not real, that Canada would be better off to be absorbed by the United States? Do you think the president understands why so many Canadians are so angry by that kind of talk? You know, on this one, I see it more as posturing from the president. It's the sentiment that Canada needs the United States more than the United States needs Canada. He said that it's not trolling. He said that he's serious about it. And the prime minister has said that the United States wants to break us to own us.

I don't share that interpretation of these comments, but what I would say is that the United States and Canada have a lot to gain from working with one another. And I think there will be some of this, some of this posturing, some of this happening, some of this swirl until the USMCA agreement is renegotiated. And once that happens, I think it will resolve a lot of these issues. Just very briefly, should Canadians be worried that you talked about the president's interaction with world leaders, should Canadians be worried that the interaction with the prime minister could be similar to that of Vladimir Zelensky and that there could be an eruption on camera in the Oval Office?

I mean, what I would say to this is I witnessed a lot of bilateral meetings, a lot of bilateral phone calls at the leader level, many of which were far more contentious than the Zelensky meeting because again, the stakes are incredibly high. Some of the issues that these leaders are discussing come with a fair amount of emotion both ways. But what was so stunning about the Zelensky meeting was that it played out publicly before the cameras. So I think these calls can go any which way, these meetings can go any which way. But really what's important is that there is a attempt

to earnestly build a relationship, which I believe the prime minister wants to do and is going to Washington for the purpose of doing. And that will help with some of these public facing meetings. Kelly and Shaw, thank you very much. We'll be watching. Great. Kelly and Shaw is a senior White House trade advisor,

was a senior White House trade advisor during Donald Trump's first presidency. For more CBC podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.