The Current - Could Democrats win big in the U.S. midterms?

Episode Date: October 5, 2026

In just over a month, voters in America will head to the polls in the U.S. midterms. The elections will decide if US President Donald Trump will remain free to pursue his agenda, or whether he’ll face checks from a new Congress as the Democrats try to flip both the House and the Senate.  Josh Wingrove, Senior White House reporter with Bloomberg News and Barbara Sprunt, Congressional Correspondent with NPR, talk through which races to watch and what’s at stake.

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doing. I have not made up my mind yet because things are changing daily. In four weeks, Americans are heading to the polls for midterm elections. Voters will decide if U.S. President Donald Trump will remain free to pursue his agenda or whether he will face checks from a new Congress as the Democrats try to flip both the House and the Senate. Donald Trump might not be on the ballot, but he is currently on the campaign trail. We have the greatest numbers of any president in the history of our country. I think inflation is very real, but they're the ones that cause the inflation. I'm the one that's bringing it down. So I'm asking you to pretend that I'm on the ballot. I'm on the ballot. As a request that some Republicans might not want voters to listen to,

Donald Trump's approval ratings are at a record low. So how likely is a Democratic wave? How much is this vote a referendum on Donald Trump? And how are voters feeling with a month to go? Josh Wingrove is a senior White House reporter with Bloomberg News, also a Canadian, we should mention. And Barbara Sprunt is the congressional correspondent with NPR. They are both in Washington, D.C. this morning.

Good morning to you both. Good morning. Good morning. Josh, let's start with you. You've been traveling with the president this weekend. You were with him at a rally on Friday night in Alabama. What was the atmosphere like? I mean, it's mixed at best.

He's been doing rallies in really deep red states, Oklahoma, Alabama. He went to Ohio, a very small venue in Ohio. He's campaigning in Texas. Like there's defense, and then there's really playing defense, and he's doing the latter right now. There are two explanations for this. It's not really clear which is true. One is that they're trying to go to safe districts to drive Republican turnout, you know, throughout the region.

For instance, in Alabama, he was near Florida, which has more competitive districts. Another is that he might be too toxic for front-line candidates. Susan Collins of Maine certainly leads the list of candidates that have avoided appearing with him or the vice president or distance themselves from the administration. So he is hitting the trail, as you said, there he wants voters to pretend like he's on the ballot historically when they were sort of wiped out in 2018, the midterms in his first term, he blamed himself not being on the ballot. And so, you know, we'll see where it goes. But the mood is souring quickly for them. And now it looks like not only will the House flip, which seemed likely

a few weeks ago and now seems all but a certainty that the Senate now might flip as well. There's a lot of talk about Texas. And in that state, Republican Senator John Cornyn said that the president's appeal to voters to pretend he is on the ballot might actually hurt. their chances. Have a listen. When the president wants to make all these elections about himself and, you know, vote like I'm on the ticket when his favorability ratings are not what they once were, that's not a plus. That's a negative. Josh, just pick up on that. I mean, again, voters, according to the polls, disapprove of his handling of the economy as well as the war in Iran. Are those the issues that are top of mind for voters? Is this a referendum? Is this a referendum?

him on Donald Trump in many ways? Absolutely, and I'm chuckling a bit because Republicans always get so vocal when they're no longer running. John Cornyn, of course, lost a primary in part because of Donald Trump's intervention. He's not the only Republican senator to have done that. You heard Trump saying, you know, sort of fighting back on the question of inflation, inflation is higher now than it was when he took office here. It's not, you know, five alarm fire high, but it's higher.

And, of course, the way inflation works is that every month it, it's right? prices, price levels themselves continue to rise. So price levels are higher than when he took office. And so there is genuine anger out there. It's also a case where in Texas, he's sort of shot himself in the foot a little bit by he at once was sort of teasing that he would endorse Cornyn, didn't. Paxon is a very, very complicated candidate for Republicans and is kind of created an opening for Texas to swing to the Democrats. Now, we've been here before, 2018, with Beto O'Rourke, people might remember. And so, I don't think a lot of Democrats are counting anything before they hatch.

But it's put Texas on the map in a way that wasn't before the New York Times had a poll over the weekend that basically, long, story short, showed the Senate flipping in part because it looks like Texas will flip according to that poll. I want to get to some of the specific races, Barbara, but you have been speaking with voters in Pennsylvania. Just broadly, what are you hearing from them? What do they care about? Yeah, you know, I mean, it's the economy, economy, economy. I mean, as you said, the president has really dug a hole for himself and making him the center of this. And it's trickling down in the way that people are feeling on the ground. I mean, I talked to voters, particularly in a toss-up district in the Lehigh Valley in Pennsylvania. And it's notable because it contains a city, the third most populous city in the state that is majority Latino city. And that's interesting because President Trump has made such significant gains with the state. Latino voters two years ago. And that support we see now is plummeting. And this is largely because of this very thing, of the cost of living and inflation, you know, how much gas prices are for people. And this is

something that's deeply felt in this region. And what's, what's I think notable about this block of voters, is that about a third of Latino voters, according to polling from Eki's research, don't see themselves as belonging to either the Republican or the Democratic Party. And so they vote cycle by cycle on the top issues that they feel deeply in their families. And that is the economy this year. Let me play a little bit of a conversation with one of the voters that you spoke with Barbara Gonzalez-Rizotti, who votes Republican, but to your point, would be open to voting for a Democrat one day. Regardless of your political party or your ethnicity, we're all feeling the same things.

It's gotten to the point where there's almost, or we're gearing towards two class of people, the filthy rich or the dirt poor. we're squeezing out the middle class, which is where I fall. I'm a little let down. I feel like we're not focusing on what we were initially told was going to be the focus. I feel less America first. Like I'm not hearing that as much. It's so interesting, Barbara, because we were down in Arizona before the presidential election, and we spoke with a number of voters in the Latino communities

who talked about immigration issues, you know, the price of eggs, things that they thought that Donald Trump would deliver on. And to your point, many of them feel let down. What are those parties doing to attract that important base of voters? Well, you know, I think the thing I've been thinking about recently is what are they not doing? And I think in some ways, you know, President Trump is offering sort of a case study of what might not be helpful to do in this area. And what I think is really interesting is that we saw in 2024 a Democratic party telling voters who are worried about the economy, come on, it's not that bad. Look what we've done.

Actually, the economy is pretty good. And you now have sort of like an inverse echo of that with Republicans led by President Trump saying the economy is actually not that bad. And it's hitting people in a way that feels, as they've told me on the ground, a lot like gaslighting. You know, this is something that really frustrates voters. It frustrated them two years ago. And it frustrates them now. Josh, is that gas lighting is interesting. It's also gas prices. Is that one of those key indicators that could swing the election? When people drive by the pumps and they see just how much it costs to fill up the tank now.

Yeah. In particular, things really started going south for Trump when diesel prices started skyrocketing. You've seen him, for instance, lean on the G7, including Canada, but Europe to release diesel stores to try to bring that down. I completely agree that this is shades of Biden all over again. We covered that administration. It was very similar where they would say, hey, the numbers aren't that bad, but of course people were feeling it differently. And to the point on Latino voters, Trump bet the farm a little bit that Latinos would continue to go towards him. We've heard a lot about the gerrymandering wars that led up to this vote, right?

Trump tried to redraw districts, including chiefly and firstly in Texas, to give himself an edge. And now it looks like that will backfire and that some of these districts were redrawn in a way that depended on certain groups voting like they did before, including Latinos. It's just not shaping up that way. So we're having, the Dems are now sort of their eyes are widening and widening, widening, winding. They're looking at districts Trump won by 10 or 15 or more points in thinking, we could win these. Can I ask you just as a Canadian, we would be very interested in this race in part because of what's going on to the trade war in the United States right now. From your perspective, Josh, how much of an issue is this for Americans? Is it an issue at all?

I think it's hanging over several key races, in particular Maine, Ohio, Alaska, Michigan. in, like, there's a lot of Senate races that have a big footprint with exposure to the Canadian tariff fight. I think more broadly, it's feeding into the concerns about costs. But I think fundamentally, some Canadians are sort of putting eggs in the basket of thinking, well, if the House and Senate flipped, then Trump will have his wings clipped, and there won't be a lot he can do, and maybe the temperature will come down. Maybe.

I just, we don't really have a lot of evidence of that. Trump tends to get more, you know, I don't even know what word to use, unpredictable, let's say, when he's sort of backed into a corner. And so I think right now this Canadian tariff issue is hanging over a lot of these key races. But we just simply don't know when the two countries will go back to the table. It seems like it will be in what's called the lame duck after the election, but before the new Congress is sworn in because Trump's next tariffs kick in January 1st.

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download podcasts for free. Barbara, one of those key races, as Josh has said, is in Michigan. Take us to that state, particularly the Senate race. What's going on there? Yeah, you know, this is a race that I think would have looked more promising from the outset for Democrats if someone else had won the primary. Congresswoman Haley Stevens, more of a moderate Democrat ran in that primary against eventual nominee, Abdul Al-Said, much more of a progressive Democrat. He's running against Republican Mike Rogers. I think that this is an interesting race because it shows some of the sort of future challenges that the Democratic Party is going to have to contend with.

Tell me more about that. This sort of tug of war between the more moderate centrist wing of the party and the more progressive left, including other candidates throughout the country and House races who kind of fall under the DSA Democratic Socialist umbrella. I do think, though, that the height or, you know, the extent of this blue wave may negate some of the inherent challenges that El Sayed had in this state. Of course, that comes down to turnout and just exactly how big that wave is. But I do think there are some challenges that he faces in that state. In particular, with some Jewish Michiganders, he apologized recently for some comments that he made. after a terrorist attack at a Jewish synagogue in preschool earlier this year. He said something along the lines of hurt people, hurt people talking about the attacker.

I reported on the aftermath of that attack, and I can say that people there who experience that, many of whom are Democrats, say they cannot bring themselves to vote for him. And to add to that, he hasn't fully separated himself from a controversial figure, the streamer Hassan Piker. many in the party would like to see El Sayed more formally distance himself from him. This is a state that the president carried in 2024. I think it's a slightly bit more challenging for Democrats than perhaps they had wanted from the beginning. But again, that blue wave could crash well over there and lift El Sajad as well.

Can I just ask you one more thing just about that, whether that's split within the party or the tension within the Democratic Party is a real thing. He's, El Cid is being backed by Democratic socialists like AOC, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Bernie Sanders. But he's been very insistent that he is not a Democratic socialist. What is he trying to do there? Yeah, I think he's trying to sort of thread the needle. And I think so far, I mean, I think he's he's doing that a little bit more than I think people in the more middle of the party had expected him to. you know, the other sort of comments about Pike are notwithstanding. I do think, though, that this sort of, this speaks to something that is going to be weighing on the Democratic Party far after El Saeed wins or loses, which is how to figure out just how big this tent is.

I mean, the Democrats like to talk about themselves as a big tent party. Is that true? Who gets to be in the tent going forward? And I think beyond what it says about, like, Democratic. internal struggles, it also speaks to giving, you know, giving something for Republicans to brand the whole party with, which we have seen again and again, and I've talked to GOP officials about this who basically are making the case that, you know, in November, you are voting for a Republican or a socialist.

Or a communist. Which is the language they use, right? Exactly. And regardless of whether or not any of the Democratic candidates actually embrace any of those terms. And I think that is sort of the greater challenge that Democrats have. which is if DSA candidates are successful in pockets of the country. And again, they are successful in the most bluest of blue places.

And yet, Republicans are taking that as a way to sort of, you know, tarnish the whole party. That's a challenge. Josh, take us to Georgia, where John Ossoff is the Democratic senator. He is running for re-election in a state that Trump won handily in 2024. He's getting, John Ossoff is getting a lot of attention. Why is that? He's one of the potential candidates in 2028, and we're seeing this race really start to play out. We could have, by the way, two or even three dozen Democrats running for president.

So everyone should buckle up if that's something that interests you. But he's also the only Democratic incumbent in this cycle running in a Trump one state, or at least in the key battlegrounds. I think the litmus test has kind of quickly gone by the wayside because he just looks like he's going to run away with it in part because the Republicans. had a pretty brutal primary. Aosov's got a bit of an issue, though. He really needs to hope that the gubernatorial candidate in that state wins Kishelan's bottoms, because if not, he would risk giving up his Senate seat to a nominee from a Republican governor. Remember, we're having this election, you know, it's not really apples to apples with Canada,

where we're electing a bunch of governors right now, too, in the cycle of this. It's looking very good for Democrats in the gubernatorial races. But Aossoff's, I think, immediate challenges, it looks like he's going to win, but he really hopes that he has coattails as well. It's not all good news, I should add, for the Democrats, that New Hampshire and Minnesota look maybe more close than Democrats would like them to be Republicans are sort of widening their eyes a little bit there.

And the only thing almost as unpopular right now is Trump is the Democratic brand generally. And so Republicans have something to hang their hat on or at least hope that they can sort of nail the furniture to the floor on. Do you want to talk just quickly, Josh, about Texas and James Tala Rica. I'm heading down to Texas in a couple of weeks' time to speak with voters there. Tala Rico, again, is one of those candidates that's getting all sorts of attention. Just briefly talk about why.

Yeah, he's really trying to be the first person in like 30 years to flip that state blue. Again, he's benefiting from a really unpopular Republican candidate, King Paxton, as well as a libertarian running, they could potentially bleed votes from Paxton. Again, it does feel a bit like Lucy with the football for Democrats, who had always these high hopes in Texas that just never really materializes. but we'll see. This is certainly their best shot in a long time. And I should note the gubernatorial race there also looks close. So, I mean, the notion of having a Democratic governor in Texas also wouldn't have been something you'd think about all that long ago.

Barbara, how much concern is there that Donald Trump may interfere with the results of this election if those results don't go his way? I mean, I will say this is something that I hear a lot from voters when I go out and talk to people. I think confidence is low. And I think Democrats are sort of girding themselves for what that might mean come election day. I think it's hard to predict. I mean, I ordered a crystal ball in the mail and it still hasn't come. But I do think, you know, this is clearly something that people are watching. And I think beyond what actually happens, I think an important factor is how are voters feeling, right?

And confidence in elections is obviously very important. And so anything that tampers with that is something that everyone should be very concerned about. Just before I let you go, both of you, Barbara, we'll start with you. What is one thing that you're keeping an eye on in the next four weeks? Well, I mean, we are now in October, which is spooky season for Americans. The October surprise. And exactly, looking for a potential October surprise. So this is a long month and who knows what can happen.

I am looking particularly at North Carolina. this is a big Senate opportunity for Democrats, looking very promising for them, particularly as the Senate Republicans' campaign spending organization has been pulling money out of the state, sort of a signal, I think, of the lack of confidence that they have in the Republican Party to eke it out and putting it in other places. So, you know, it shows that the Senate map even this far is still sometimes in flux, and money matters, certainly. and Republicans have a huge cash advantage over Democrats. But what Democrats have at this point is the message and momentum. Josh, last minute to you, what's one thing you're watching for? I think we're going to a couple of things. One is how widely the map changes.

Trump is going to Nebraska today, which has a house seat that's sort of a swing seat that seems all but lost for Republicans, but also a Senate race. And if we start looking at Nebraska, Kansas, South Carolina, all of which have warning signs for Republicans right now, that really, suggest that this could be a wave election. We don't know, but the more time Republicans spend there, the more of a warning it is. And the other thing is we just simply don't know what measures the president and the administration will take around voting itself. Could they deploy the National Guard or ICE in ways the impact voting or discourage voting? We just simply are, you know, we're eyes open on that. And I think the people should price that into their sort of landscape as they look is how this is all going to shake out. A lot can change in a month. I hope.

hope we have the chance to talk again before and after this vote. In the meantime, thanks for this morning. Thank you, Kaly. Thank you. Josh Wingrove, Senior White House reporter with Bloomberg News. Barbara Sprunt is a congressional correspondent with NPR. They were both in Washington, D.C. For more CBC podcasts, go to cBC.ca.com.