The Current - Could Hamas leader’s death lead to a ceasefire?

Episode Date: October 18, 2024

Israel says its soldiers killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in a firefight Thursday. What will his death mean for the escalating conflict in the region, the Israeli hostages still held by Hamas, and the plight of Palestinian civilians under assault from Israel in Gaza?

In 2017, it felt like drugs were everywhere in the news, so I started a podcast called On Drugs. We covered a lot of ground over two seasons, but there are still so many more stories to tell. I'm Jeff Turner, and I'm back with Season 3 of On Drugs. And this time, it's going to get personal. I don't know who Sober Jeff is. I don't even know if I like that guy.

On Drugs is available now wherever you get your podcasts. This is a CBC Podcast. Hello, I'm Matt Galloway, and this is The Current Podcast. Yesterday, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, one of the masterminds of the October 7th massacre in Israel, was killed. one of the masterminds of the October 7th massacre in Israel, was killed. Senwar, who topped Israel's most wanted list, died in a firefight with Israeli defense forces in southern Gaza. Alan Pincus is a former ambassador for Israel and foreign policy advisor to Israeli foreign ministers.

We've reached him in Tel Aviv. Good morning. Hello, Rebecca. Good morning. What has been the reaction in Israel to Yahya Sinwar's death? Well, you have to make a distinction between two types of reactions. The first is the visceral, emotional reaction, and that is that people see this as a justice served or retribution exacted, and people were

happy about it. He deserved his fate. It took a year. Then again, it took 10 years to get Osama bin Laden. So, you know, everything is in comparison. And people felt good, sort of as, you know, a sense of closure. But here's the thing. It's not, in any sense, it is not a closure. There are 100 Israeli hostages still in Gaza, and the war isn't over yet or hasn't been terminated yet. And that leads us to the second set of reactions, and that is the people beginning to calculate what exactly are the implications.

Are they positive? Are they implications. Are they positive? Are they negative? Are they mixed? What will happen in the next few days, few weeks? Is Israel bogged into a war of attrition with no end in sight while diverting its attention to Lebanon? So I think, Rebecca, that, you know, give it another day and the, you know, the satisfaction of exacting justice will dissipate and the, I'm sorry, a deeper thinking of the implications will settle in. You mentioned the hostages. Is there a belief, I know a group representing the families of the hostages are hopeful this will mean there's a bigger likelihood that they come home. Do you see that some kind of deal might be struck now? I wish I could. There are three different

scenarios here. One is the most tragic and hopefully will not materialize scenario, and that is that the people holding the hostages will just start to execute them as a sign of panic, hysteria, cluelessness, no chain of command, or just revenge. The second scenario is that Israel now enters a quick negotiating process to release the hostages. But the question is, Rebecca, who do you negotiate with? You just killed the guy that supposedly, hypothetically, was the only one capable of making decisions. And that leads us to a third scenario, and that is that Israel just offers some kind of immunity, a safe passage,

even financial reward to anyone in Gaza, Hamas or not, who turns out, who comes out with a live hostage. That's easier said than done. But to be honest, if I look at all these three said than done. But to be honest, if I look at all these three possibilities or options as a package, I am not very hopeful, unfortunately. To what extent do you think Sinoir's death represents victory for Netanyahu, a vindication or justification, perhaps, of the strategy in Gaza? justification, perhaps, of the strategy in Gaza? He will definitely present it as such, as the killing or the elimination of Hassan Nasrallah, the Secretary General of Hezbollah in Beirut 20 days ago, exactly. However, Mr. Netanyahu failed miserably to define any political goals for Gaza. He only said the idea is to topple, decimate, eradicate, annihilate Hamas. That hasn't happened. On the other hand, the three leaders of Hamas have all been assassinated. Sinir yesterday, and in the last two months, Ismail Haniya, who was targeted in

Tehran in Iran, and Muhammad Def, who was Sinoir's second-in-command, who was killed about two months ago in Gaza, also in southern Gaza. So in terms of killing the three heads of Hamas, he may feel very good about his achievement. The question is, what do you do now? Do you stay in Gaza? And if so, for what purpose? And if you do stay in Gaza, who governs Gaza? Do you, Israel, govern Gaza? Absolutely not, he will tell you. Well, who then? And until now, Rebecca, he's refused to entertain any ideas coming mostly from the U.S., but also from Qatar about this. Kamala Harris, Vice President Kamala Harris and President Biden have both said this represents an opportunity for a day after in Gaza without Hamas in power, and that perhaps there's a way

to negotiate a ceasefire. I mean, what is the appetite for that? I am curious, too, what the Israeli people think of a war that so far we're hearing has claimed the lives of 40,000 Palestinians. Over 40,000. It's 42, I think. Look, both President Biden and Kamala Harris, you know, made the right statement. However, there are 18 days before the American election, so I doubt anything is going to happen in the next 18 days. Secondly, there is an extensive period of time, relatively extensive period of time between the election and inauguration, which is on January 20th, 2025. That, I believe, would be the window of opportunity to come up with a plan.

I've read today in Tom Friedman's column in the New York Times that indeed the Americans, together with the Qataris, the Saudis, and the Egyptians, have in the last few weeks began to rehash or rekindle the Biden plan of December 23 or January 24. It was presented twice about an inter-Arab force that would go into Gaza, fill the political vacuum. Israel will withdraw gradually. There will be a hostage deal. But I don't know how feasible that is at this point. Okay. We'll leave it there for now.

Not a lot of time to chat about this, of course. But Alan Pincus, thank you so much for your time. My pleasure, Rebecca. Thank you. Alan Pincus is a former Israeli ambassador and former foreign policy advisor to Israeli foreign ministers. Omar Rahman is a fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, where he focuses on the Palestinian territories, Middle East geopolitics, and American foreign policy in the region. Omar, good morning.

Good morning, Rebecca. How surprised were you by this news that Sinwar is now dead? Not terribly surprised. You know, Israel has killed much of Hamas's leadership, both in Gaza, outside of Gaza, assassinating members in Lebanon and Iran. And so with its daily bombardment of the Gaza Strip, its forced starvation of the population, you imagine that this was coming at some point or another. What has been the reaction among Palestinians inside and outside of Gaza? Well, I'm not on the ground inside to gauge that at this early point, but, you know, from what I'm hearing from the outside and seeing, you know, in some senses, there's a celebration of the man, including especially in the manner in which he died. He didn't die, you know, in a bunker surrounded by hostages. He didn't die. He wasn't killed, you

know, hiding behind civilians as Israel, you know, constantly portrayed him. He was above ground. He was in military fatigues. One of his arms had been amputated. And in their reporting, he died in a firefight. So this showed, you know, a man who was, you know, out there fighting alongside his people. And he was killed in that manner. So in a way, he'll die a martyr in that sense. Do you think that's how the majority of Palestinians view him? view him? You know, I imagine that is how he will be portrayed and be remembered to an extent. I mean, there, of course, you know, his decision making, his decision to launch the October 7th will be, you know, judged in time. But at the same time, you know, I think people see what Hamas is doing is fighting the Palestinian people's occupation and their dispossession. So he'll be fit into that context. He, now that he's gone, what kind of, I understand they have perhaps Hamas, I'm seeing sources say they have named a new leader. But is that a leader that Hamas can continue against this fight with Israel?

You know, Hamas replaced Ismail Haniyeh very quickly with Yahya Sinwar. And so if they've replaced somebody this quickly, I mean, it shows their ability to do that. But I think as an organization, you know, Hamas is a decentralized organization. It has a leadership council, its fighters operate in cells, you know, and all these things make it a resilient organization that can withstand a lot and continue. And, you know, Hamas also, you know, like all resistance organizations of its kind is rooted in the grievances of its community. And until those grievances are addressed, like Palestinian statelessness, denial of their basic rights, then Hamas is going to live on. And in fact, you know, Israel has compounded those grievances maybe a thousand times over, over the past year through its, you know, conduct in this war in Gaza. So I don't, you know, I think Hamas as an

organization will continue to operate. Is there any renewed interest, do you think, in negotiating a ceasefire? Is that, I mean, it sounds to me you're suggesting it's almost off the table. Not from a Palestinian standpoint. Obviously, I think Hamas has tried to reach a ceasefire. It wants to bring an end to the suffering, the immense suffering that's happening in the Gaza Strip. But on the other side of the table is Netanyahu. He's made it clear he's not interested in a permanent end to this. He was fighting maybe with the release of hostages, but just as a temporary measure in which then he can continue to conduct this pulverization of Gaza that has resulted in pretty much the entire destruction of the Strip and the displacement of most of the 2.3 million people that live there. And I think, you know, they're starting to take measures to push pretty much everybody out of the northern

part of the Gaza Strip, and I think keep a, you know, a long-term, a permanent Israeli military presence there. So we see what Netanyahu is trying to do, and I don't think that leaves room for a ceasefire. I just want to go back to the suggestion that many Palestinians will view Sinjar and have as a martyr now, but speak to some of the concerns we hear about the way Hamas has treated its own people. The Palestinians people have been repressed and oppressed under Hamas. Tell me a little bit about how they feel in that context. I mean, let's not forget that the primary oppressor of Palestinians is not Hamas or Fatah or the PA or whatever. It's Israel who maintains a 57-year-old unlawful occupation of the Palestinian territories and has been dispossessing them for the past 76 years. Yes,

within the Gaza Strip, under Hamas rule in the previous 16 years, you know, Hamas was an organization that was, you know, acting in an authoritarian manner, an oppressive manner. And its popularity among Palestinians was in the 20 to 30 percent. You know, it wasn't super popular. And at the same time, its counterpart in the West Bank, in terms of the Palestinian Authority, is the same or even more unpopular. So, you know, Palestinians have not been allowed to elect their leadership since 2005. And their leadership had grown, you know, relatively authoritarian and corrupt and oppressive. Hamas, for its part, continued to carry on resistance that the Palestinian people as a whole appreciate because they want somebody fighting for

them, you know, against Israel's inexorable encroachment on their lives and their lands. You know, it wasn't a supremely popular organization or ever command, you know, a majority of public support, but it has a bit of support. Before you go, I just want to ask quickly, you know, Benjamin Netanyahu said yesterday, quote, we will not stop the war. What worries you most in the coming days? That is the destruction of Gaza and the displacement of its population. And this is something we're seeing. You know, it's not a coincidence or surprise or undetached reality that people are calling this a genocide. And that's my greatest fear, that unrestrained Israel is implementing a plan for the Gaza Strip that is, you know, the crime of all crimes.

Omar Rahman, thank you so much for your time this morning. Happy to be here. Thank you. Omar Rahman is a fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs. In 2017, it felt like drugs were everywhere in the news. So I started a podcast called On Drugs. We covered a lot of ground over two seasons, but there are still so many more stories to tell. I'm Jeff Turner, and I'm back with season three of On Drugs.

And this time, it's going to get personal. I don't know who Sober Jeff is. I don't even know if I like that guy. On Drugs is available now wherever you get your podcasts. Bob Ray is Canada's ambassador to the UN. He's been listening in. Good morning. Good morning, Rebecca.

Mr. Ray, I just want you to comment on that last conversation. What do you make of what you just heard? I think his comments reflect a view about the conflict, which frankly doesn't help us get to the next stage. I mean, I perfectly well understand the frustration and anger, but not to understand that Hamas is a terrorist organization, that Hamas is a terrorist organization, that Sinwar was the leader of this organization that led to the massacre in Israel, and the suggestion that somehow this can all be described as resistances is frankly

a dangerous fantasy. But I do think that the national aspirations of the Palestinian people are something that Israel cannot ignore and the rest of the world cannot ignore. And nor can we ignore the legitimate concerns that Israel has about its security. unfortunately and tragically stuck in this position where the Israelis have, at least the Netanyahu government, has yet to really make clear what its objectives are beyond just fighting and somehow trying to get the hostages out. But I think everyone recognizes that getting the hostages out will require a negotiation

and a negotiation will require some kind of path to a political resolution. Now I think there are a lot of conversations going on behind the scenes. I think that Mr. Pincus' point is well taken that there are a lot of discussions going on about what does the day after look like? And I think, I think that the, the, so far the Israelis, the Israeli government has not given the world a sense of exactly what it is it intends to do other than to try to destroy Hamas and Hezbollah and, and to dismantle Iran's capacity to attack them and attack others. And it really is essential for this political aspect of the issue to come to the fore, because

unless there's some path that's set out that says this is the direction we need to go in to deal with the fundamental concerns, which are the concerns about the occupation of the West Bank and the occupation of Gaza cannot go on indefinitely. There have to be political ways of resolving this issue. Is it concerning? Is it dangerous now, though, to have the leader of Hamas gone? And does that create a power vacuum? I mean, how do we get towards a ceasefire when that might be the case?

Genarza has to suggest that somehow he's going to be able to survive something like this. He started a war which he was unable to conclude because it was a terrible project to start with. I also think that his record of oppression and Hamas' record of oppression in the Gaza Strip is pretty awful. And I think it's important for people to understand that, that this is, they had one election and then it was over. And then they ended up shooting all the leaders of the opposition parties and locking everybody else in jail. And it's a terribly repressive clique that they've established for themselves, where they made a lot of money and huge corruption.

And these are all issues that now have to be dealt with and are going to have to be faced up to. Is it easy to get to a ceasefire? No, it's not easy, but it's absolutely essential. It's essential, but we don't have a lot of time left. And I want to get this question is because at what point do Canada, the U.S. and other allies lose their moral authority on this if they can't find a way? I know it's difficult, but if you can't find a way and deaths continue and the suffering civilians in Gaza continues, when do we lose our moral authority? Well, I think we've been very clear in what our goal is and what our objective is. And our objective clearly is we're calling for an immediate ceasefire and we want an immediate ceasefire. And we're doing everything we can to persuade the Netanyahu government that this is something that has to come forward as an

objective. Not only a ceasefire in Gaza, but also a ceasefire in Lebanon. And as I've said before, ceasefire in Lebanon. And as I've said before, a military solution can get you so far, but it can't get you to the final conclusion, which has to be a peaceful resolution of the conflict. And we still don't see a sign yet from Israel, from the Israeli government at the moment, from the Netanyahu government, that that's something that they're prepared to talk about or to contemplate. And so we are continuing to do everything we can to persuade the Israeli government that this is something that needs to be put on the table, needs to be something that's discussed in order to get the hostages out and in order to get humanitarian supplies in. This is all what's required to do. Bob Ray, we'll have to leave it there. Thank you for making the time for us.

Thank you very much. have to leave it there. Thank you for making the time for us. Thank you very much. Good to talk to you. Bob Ray is Canada's ambassador to the UN. For more CBC podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.