The Current - Could this week’s election debates sway crucial votes?

Episode Date: April 14, 2025

With two weeks until election day, this week’s English and French debates could be crucial for party leaders to convince voters who are still on the fence. Matt Galloway unpacks what it might take to shift the election story with the CBC’s Rosemary Barton, Toronto Star’s Ryan Tumilty, and the Globe and Mail's Stephanie Levitz.

When they predict we'll fall, we rise to the challenge. When they say we're not a country, we stand on guard. This land taught us to be brave and caring, to protect our values, to leave no one behind. Canada is on the line, and it's time to vote as though our country depends on it, because like never before, it does. I'm Jonathan Pedneau, co-leader of the Green Party of Canada.

This election, each vote makes a difference. Authorized by the Registeredleader of the Green Party of Canada, this election, each vote makes a difference. Authorized by the Registered Agent of the Green Party of Canada. This is a CBC podcast. Hello, I'm Matt Galloway, and this is The Current Podcast. Change so you can afford a home. Change so you can afford food. Change so your paycheck rises faster than your cost of living.

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If you're counting, it's day 23 of the campaign, two weeks to go, tariff whiplash, polls, pipeline politics, the leaders' debates this week to walk us through it all. I'm joined once again by our national affairs panel, Rosemary Barton, the CBC's chief political correspondent and host of Rosemary Barton Live. Stephanie Levitz is a senior reporter with the Globe and Mail's Ottawa Bureau, and Ryan Tomolte is a political reporter at the Toronto Star. Friends, good morning.

Good morning. Good morning. Rosie, I asked you this last week and the week before, so with a couple of weeks to go, what have we learned about the campaign last week? And let's maybe begin with this television appearance last night on Toulumne-en-Ple, more than a million people often will watch this in Quebec, and you had Pierre Poilier and Marc Carney there under the heat lamp. How did they do? Yeah, it's a really important sort of cultural event, that show, for people that aren't familiar with it. It's a lot of fun, but it is also serious. These are not easy questions, and Pierre Poilier got that last night.

Questions like, you know, why are you doing so badly in the polls? Are you a mini Trump? Um, and he, he did his best, um, to try and defend some of his positions and his ideas, but it was, it was a bit of a rough ride, I would say. Uh, he also got asked about defending the CBC and was sort of told off by, uh, the host, Guillapeige that, that that wasn't a good idea, the public broadcasting matters. So, you know, the outing was fine for him. I would say he didn't have very much to lose. Mark Carney had a lot more on the table because Mark Carney needs to keep and

pick up seats in Quebec if he wants this majority government that he's campaigning for. And we've talked previously about his French. You know, he also did okay. But I would say it was a test of whether he understands Quebec and he had clearly done some homework. He was able to cite at least one Quebec band that he knew of. Chord de Perrot.

That's right. And then there was this really key moment, which might not sound like a big deal for the rest of Canada, but the sort of co-host or the sidekick asked, well, you do know the name of Guy Lepage's comedy troupe. And he managed to remember that it was Roqué Belzare. And that was like the audience gasped because they weren't sure that he would get it. And I know that sounds silly, but it was a sign that he does have some understanding

of Quebec culture and why it matters. So I think that that was a fairly good moment for him last night. Ryan, do you want to pick up on that and talk about what we've learned since we last spoke a week ago? Yeah, I think for both of them last night's performance, as Rosie quite eloquently put it, it was a test and it was this opportunity to show Quebec that you are worth voting for. I think Mark Carney has won the support of people in Quebec that in a way that a lot of people find, a lot of political observers find surprising because his language skills

are not great. I mean, they're better than mine, but that does not make them good you know and Culture and identity are so important to people in Quebec But I think in this moment Where the bigger threat to Quebec's culture and identity is coming from south of the border Mark Carney is getting a pass And so you know performing okay last night on that stage was really important, but it sets up a French language debate this week. You know, if the

questions were tough last night, they'll be much worse at the French language debate. We'll get to that in a moment. Steph, from your perspective, and you can talk about Quebec or the rest of the country, I mean, all of this is kind of folding into the last couple of weeks and how people are thinking across this country about this campaign. What have we learned? So one of the things I've observed over the last week is Mr. Polyev trying very hard and through

different mediums to Le Monde en Paule would probably be like the cherry on top of a Sunday, where he's trying to humanize himself to voters, right? Recognizing some of the criticism that's coming at him. Not just the questions about like the cherry on top of a Sunday where he's trying to humanize himself to voters, right? Recognizing some of the criticism that's coming at him. Not just the questions about like the persistent questions about Donald Trump and his campaign, but who he is as a person. And there was a line last night where, you know, he was talking about the difference between being the leader of the opposition and now running to be prime minister and the shift in his tone

and how, you know, he needed to shift from being this attack dog guy to giving people hope. There was a similar version of that question for Mark Carney, which was, do you feel like running for the prime, being the prime minister is easier, harder than being a candidate? He talked about broadly, like how much more difficult he finds politics. He finds being prime minister easy. And so there you almost have two images of this campaign. On the one you have Mr. Carney who all but waltz into the Prime Minister's job without

really having to work for it that hard. And then you have Mr. Poliev who's trying to get himself there but needs to basically undo people's perception of him for the last three years. And I think that's the tension for the last two weeks is which one of these guys is the one that Canadians believe going forward. It's interesting Rosie we talked about this last week crowd size and where the crowd size matters there was this huge rally in Edmonton a pure volley of posted on social media saying 15,000 people came out there were some and it's hard to tell how many but there were some conservative supporters who are

suggesting the size of these crowds mean that the polls aren't to be believed, that there's more support for conservatives than the polls would suggest. The CBC poll tracker suggests that the liberals still have a fairly significant lead. How should people look at polls, do you think, a couple of weeks going into the vote? Well, that's a hard question because I don't think people should actually look at polls to make a decision, right? I actually don't think that's how you should choose your vote, although I know that there's strategic voting and all that kind of thing.

But if you are observing the polls and just want to try and understand what's happening, they really haven't moved very much, frankly, in the past week or so. They have got to this sort of static point where the NDP's collapse is holding and the Bloc Québécois as well. And that is what has led to this huge increase in support for the liberals. I think that the problem for the conservatives is twofold. One, that those two other parties are not doing well, although that could change, and we'll talk about the French debate in particular, why that might change.

And the other is what we call favorability, right? Mark Carney and Pierre Poiliev, and that speaks to what Steph is saying. People don't particularly have a favorable view of Pierre Paulyev. And before Donald Trump and the departure of Justin Trudeau, that probably didn't matter as much because they were looking for someone who was sort of aggressive and a fighter. But now it does matter. And Mark Carney's favorability is really through the roof, even though people don't really know him very well. And that is a very surprising factor and hard to fight against. So those are interesting things, right?

And I think we enjoy talking about polls and watching them, but I do think we should be cautious about it because people will make their decision over the next couple of weeks, perhaps next weekend when a lot of people celebrate Easter. And they'll make a decision about who they think is best suited for this moment in time. Ryan just the last point on polls last week this got all sorts of attention Doug Ford's a campaign manager former director of communications to Stephen Harper Corry tonight blasted the conservative campaign he said and he used language that I can't use on a family radio program but said that

blowing a 25-point lead and being like 10 points down is campaign malpractice at the highest level. Do you think that, is there a concern that the obituary is perhaps being written while the patient is still on the operating table? Yeah, I mean, you know, he was being very critical of Pierre Polia, but also of his campaign manager, Jenny Byrne. I think a lot of us have questioned why the conservative campaign hasn't really pivoted. I was at two Pierre Poliev media events this weekend. They felt like I could have the same way they felt a year ago.

His tone, what he's talking about, have all remained the same while the world has kind of been upended. That said, Jenny Byrne probably knows more about campaigns than anyone, especially conservative campaigns. So, she could still surprise us all. There is a chance, but it is starting to look like this campaign won't change and the polls won't change What is that? What is that elected? What does that infighting tell you Ryan? You know it tells me that The conservative party, you know both the liberal and the conservative parties are big tent parties But the conservative tent has always had many many more sharp edges

So the conservative tent has always had many, many more sharp edges. And I think what you're seeing here is that, you know, for conservatives like Doug Ford, who just won a massive majority, looking at the federal conservatives and seeing them lose a potentially massive majority is really distressing. And it's suggesting that they were right about what a conservative should be in this country. When the predictable fall, we rise to the challenge. When they say we're not a country, we stand on guard. This land taught us to be brave and caring, to protect our values, to leave no one behind. Canada is on the line, and it's time to vote as though our country depends on it, because like never before, it does. I'm Jonathan Pedneau, co-leader

of the Green Party of Canada. This election, each vote makes a difference. Authorized by the Registered Agent of the Green Party of Canada. This message comes from Viking, committed to exploring the world in comfort. Journey through the heart of Europe on a Viking longship with thoughtful service, destination focused dining, and cultural enrichment on board and on shore. With a variety of voyages and sailing dates to choose from, now is the time to explore Europe's waterways. Learn more at Viking.com. Steph, last week, Liberal leader Mark Carney paused his campaign, what, for the third time to deal with the trade war with the United States

and put on the cloak of Prime Minister, such as it is. Yves-Francois Blanchet, leader of the Bloc, Pierre Pauliev, both criticized Mark Carney for skipping the campaign trail. Pierre Pauliev says that Mark Carney is in hiding. Is that a fair accusation? It's always tricky for Prime Min ministers when they go back to campaign because they do wear two hats and we've seen it in every election. The hats look very similar in some ways.

Yes, that's the challenge for Mr. Carney, right? Is that the hat is the very thing he's running on, right? It's a bit of a one note campaign from the Carney liberals, Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump. And plenty of folks have observed in political forums like this one, that every time Mr. Carney goes in front of a microphone, maybe with the exception of last night on Télémondan Pau, he tends to make mistakes, he makes gaffes, he screws up. And so having him put on the prime ministerial hat reminds people of why he's campaigning, the sort of salient features of his campaign. To do what he did this past week, which was to say that there was an urgent matter he had to take care of, he had to go convene a cabinet meeting and then to refuse to take questions, sort of cast some doubt on what was so urgent about

this and why aren't you talking to reporters? I just wonder whether that's, I mean, whether it's fair to say that he's in hiding, whether it's unexpected in some ways. And it goes back to what you said about what he said last night on Tula Manoparro, that in some ways he enjoys being the prime minister more. I mean, hiding seems like one of those words that's politically dancing, right?

I mean, the poly of conservatives used to accuse Justin Trudeau of being in hiding all the time. And I recall that the Trudeau liberals would get their backs up and say, you're importing American language and that's not fair. Um, hiding, is it hiding if he's in plain sight? I mean, he did come in front of the cameras and made some remarks, right? It's the question is what, what was the legitimacy of the decision to quote unquote, pause your campaign? And when you pause your campaign, are you actually pausing it? Are you pulling down all the ads? Are you stopping the social media posts?

Are you telling your candidates to be quiet? No, you're not. So why are you doing it? What is the thing that needed to be done in that exact moment that is not campaigning? Otherwise, it just looks a lot like a kind of campaigning. Presumably the candidates will be juggling that between being public and being tucked away

somewhere to prepare for these debates coming up in the next couple of days. Rosie, the assumption is that Mark Carney is going to get the majority of attention. Um, what, what does he need to do and what does he need to avoid doing? Do you think? I think the two debates are different.

First of all, I should, uh, I should point out because David Cochrane knows more about sports than I do that there is a Habs game on Wednesday. A Montreal Habs game. And so there is concern that there won't be as many viewers of the French debate. And that's part of why last night was pretty important. That's interesting. Yeah. So we'll see if the same number of people watch the the French debate. In that one, I think there's a real potential for Yves-François Blanchet to

punch through the past two campaigns. He's managed to do that partly because of him, partly because of some other circumstances. A question that was asked during the debate. A question that was, yeah, that was offensive to him and he seized it and ran with it. So I think there is a possibility for things to shift a little bit there for the Bloc Québécois. The English debate is something different. And I would say this, normally debates are when people check in. That is not the case this time. People are checked in.

They're paying attention. So Mark Carney is now going to be under attack. He's going to be under attack, he's going to be under siege by all of these people. And I don't know how that's going to play out, frankly. He will struggle a bit in the French one, for sure, because he just doesn't think as quickly on his feet. And in the English one, does he hold himself like the front runner, like the prime minister and just try and take it or does he fight back in some ways? That I think that's going to be fascinating to watch

because we haven't seen him in these kinds of situations. And I'll just say for Pierre Poilier, I think if he becomes too aggressive, which he talked about himself last night, as Steph mentioned, that is really going to be a huge problem for him because that is the thing that is turning people off and turning women in particular off, which is a big, big struggle for conservatives. Steph, pick up on that. Where is Mark Carney vulnerable and where is Pierre

Pauliet vulnerable in these two debates? Mark Carney has a temper. Mark, the sort of steady ship, the steady hand, when he gets pressed on something he does not want to discuss, he recoils, he gets his back up. That's not a great look for people who are opting for change, opting for stability, telling pollsters that they kind of want a stable hand and things to be the same. So if he flies off the handle, if the other leaders can get under his skin, that will be a risk for him. Mr. Poliev is sort of the other side of that coin. It is a question of tone.

It's a question of finding the sweet spot for him. And there probably is a sweet spot for him between that aggressive, take no prisoners persona that people are saying they want a fighter against Donald Trump, but not veering into the smarmy carnival barker part of it that gives that echo of Trump for people that makes them think of Trump as opposed to think of the guy who's going to fight against Trump. Ryan, what are you watching for? I mean, maybe it's with, with Mark Carney or Pierre

Poliev. We haven't mentioned the NDP and Jagmeet Singh and, and presumably this is, I don't know whether it's a, you know, save the furniture sort of approach, but we heard at the clip at the beginning of our conversation, in some ways he's making the case for a minority government. Yeah, I think that's exactly the case he's making at this point. You know, that is their dream scenario at this point.

I think they'd settle for official party status, but, you know, in this race that has become polarized between the liberals and the conservatives, the NDP need to be heard. This is a big opportunity for them because I think a lot of people have focused in on the liberals or the conservatives and maybe forgot the NDP is there. They'll be on center stage. They'll be there also, of course, with the block and with the greens,

who we almost never talk about anymore, but it is a big opportunity for Jagmeet Singh to make the case that more of his MPs need to be there. Because right now it looks as though not only will he lose some MPs, but he may even lose his own seat. Is there a sense that minds can be changed, that people are still trying to figure this out? We've been traveling across the country and

talking to people and there is the sense that some people have made up their minds, but still, I mean, there's a couple of weeks to go and many people are still trying to sort through what's best for them. Ryan, is there a sense that the minds are still open to be persuaded? Yeah, I think they are and debates are always a

moment for that, right? They are a moment where a campaign can really change. I think people are starting to lock in and I think with the pressure that we are under. But if you look at this campaign, one thing that we've talked about this a little bit, but one thing that is remarkable is that even during a campaign, Mark Carney's favorables, people who think he's the better prime minister, the better leader, the better ship captain in a storm, that number has been going up and it almost never does for politicians during an election campaign. It usually only goes down. So people are warming to him even though they didn't

know who he was three months ago. Just a couple of minutes left, Steph. Is there one other thing that you'll be watching for? We'll talk again before the campaign is done, but I mean, this is a big week in many ways. Platforms. I'm watching for platforms. When are we going to get the full piece of what these parties are putting toward to voters? How much it's going to cost, how they're going to pay for them? Ordinarily, those things come out before the debates because in theory, the debates are supposed to be a robust testing of those ideas, right? Your idea versus somebody else's idea.

We haven't really seen that yet from the parties. I know we've all talked about this being a one-note election to a degree, but there are other things the new government is going to have to do, going to want to do, going to need to pay for, and it would behoove them all to get those details before Canadians so people can make the choice they need to make. Rosie, last minute to you. One other thing that you're looking for this week?

I guess I want to see whether Mark Kearney can stand the pressure. Yes, he's a man who's made his way through many crises. He likes to remind us of that. I, I, I don't doubt that. And I don't doubt his ability to do that. The cauldron of politics is different. That's right. Can he handle the pressure of being under the spotlight and the aggression from the other candidates?

I think that is a real test for him this week. Uh, because as Steph said, he can get his backup if he's feeling like he's being attacked. And if that happens this week, I think it could do something to those favourables, as Ryan talked about. But just to go back to the undecided, I do think this weekend, which for many people will be a long weekend, will be a chance for people to sit around and talk about what they want, what they need, and what they're hearing from people and what makes sense for them right now.

I think this is potentially the moment after debates on that long weekend when people really lock in. We will talk again at the end of this week when it's all done and dusted in terms of the debates. In the meantime, thank you all for being here. All right, thank you. Rosemary Barton, CBC's chief political correspondent, Ryan Tomlte, political reporter with the Toronto Star, Stephanie Levitz, senior reporter for the Globe and Mail's Ottawa Bureau. I mentioned our election road trip.

It continues this week. I'm headed to Quebec City later on this afternoon to bring you a program from there on Wednesday morning. That province is a crucial battleground, 78 seats up for grabs. Capital City is politically diverse. The Liberals, the Bloc and the Conservatives all have a presence there. And there are big questions, as we just heard, and questions that will be addressed in this debate about what the parties are pitching and how Quebec receives those pitches. We will talk more about that from Quebec City on Wednesday. For more CBC podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.