The Current - Drama plagued Canada’s last G7 summit. Can Carney avoid repeating it?

Episode Date: June 16, 2025

A lot is at stake at this week’s G7 summit in Alberta. Prime Minister Mark Carney will be looking for a deal on tariffs, and avoiding the kind of drama that roiled the meeting last time Canada hosted it. CBC journalist JP Tasker walks us through the challenges Carney faces at this meeting, while Peter McKay and Bessma Momani assess whether world leaders can stay focused on economic issues while the Israel-Iran conflict continues to escalate.

So our podcast House Party was supposed to end right after the election, but we're really not done with the party yet. Yeah, there's way too much to talk about still with the new government and everything. That's right. House Party is now going until the end of June and I am excited to keep nerding out about politics with you guys. I'm Catherine Cullen. I'm Daniel Thibault. And I'm Jason Markossoff. And you can find House Party in the feed for the house wherever you get your podcasts.

This is a CBC Podcast. Hello, I'm Matt Galloway and this is the current podcast. On Saturday, Prime Minister Mark Carney was spotted grabbing beer and watching the hockey game with the UK's Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Unfortunately, the Edmonton Oilers lost, but Carney is hoping for some geopolitical wins this week. The G7 has begun in Cananaskis, Alberta, and the stakes could not be higher. Multiple armed conflicts, trade wars, climate change and more

are at the centre of this summit. JP Tasker is a senior reporter at the CBC's Parliamentary Bureau. He's in Banff. JP, good morning. JP Good morning. What's on the agenda this week? JP Well, an easier question might be what isn't on the agenda, Matt. World leaders seem to be jumping from crisis to crisis as you just laid out there. And there are a few fires to put out here in the Rocky Mountains, both literally and

figuratively, and the list just got longer now that Israel and Iran are at war. So Prime Minister Mark Carney is trying to keep this summit relatively focused and streamlined, and he's putting forward three priorities. He wants to talk about the economy, Trump's trade war, and global security, including what's going on in Ukraine. And President Trump will be front and center for all of these discussions. Carney and the other leaders are trying to get Trump

to do at least two things this week. One, back down on the tariffs, or at least show a willingness to negotiate on trade, and two, convince the president to stay the course in Ukraine and maintain American support for that country as that conflict with Russia drags on. And all of that may be a tall order for Carney, frankly. Trump loves tariffs, of course, and he likes to use them to get what he wants. And there are reports that Trump has kind of lost interest in Ukraine. He's frustrated with how little progress there's been and that situation in the

Middle East it has the potential to really overshadow these discussions, derail Carney's agenda. So war and peace, avoiding an economic meltdown, this really does have the potential to be one of the most consequential G7 meetings in a long time. That's what some observers are saying about the summit in particular. Tell me more about the role that the prime minister is going to play this week. I mean, Canada is playing host in this beautiful location. I was reading this morning about the work that's being done to protect the leaders from grizzly bears that might be

trolling around. But beyond that, what does the prime minister need to do to make this a success for him, for the country, but also for those people who are gathered there and the rest of the world as well. Well, the host is sort of like the head waiter at a restaurant. That's how it's been described to me. He sets the table. He's the first to speak. He keeps the meal moving along, following a set of menu of sorts.

And Carney, just three months into the job, has to take on this crucial role which is really his first major foreign policy test of his time in office. Luckily he knows most of these leaders already before he was elected. Carney was something of a foreign policy heavyweight right given his time in finance and central banking. He's a known entity to these leaders but he can't just wait on these leaders right if you will. He has to put his negotiation skills to work at the table. The country wants progress on the American trade war. If he leaves here empty-handed, it may cause a stir for the domestic audience. That's the issue that matters most, right?

Terrorists, terrorists, terrorists. And if Trump blows up things like he did in Charlevoix, if you remember the last time Canada hosted that summit, he left here angry, he torpedoed the final communique, there was a bunch of angry tweets. That will reflect poorly on Carney, just like it did on former Prime Minister Trudeau seven years ago. So the stakes are very high for Carney, and he hasn't had a lot of time to prepare. It's also, it's not just the G7. There are some additions to this group as well.

Tell me about the tone that those invitations set. Yeah, I mean, it's so different. I mentioned the last summit, you know, the last time we hosted Trudeau invited, um, mostly small island nations, you know, it was like countries, maybe some folks haven't heard of the Marshall Islands, the Seychelles. He wanted to discuss environmental issues,

rising ocean waters. And that is just not the focus this time around. Carney wants some of the big dogs here, given the focus is on the economy and the security. So there are heavy hitters. There is the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He's on the guest list. That has caused quite a stir domestically given what the RCMP has said about India's involvement in the murder of that sick activist, Hardeeb Singh Nijer. But Carney is defending, inviting controversial folks like this, saying if we're going to move on major global challenges, we need the most important leaders here to try and solve

some of these issues. And if Canada is looking to diversify its trade, if we want to move away from the US, we need to talk to folks like Modi. And then Ukraine's Vladimir Zelensky also on the guest list. He's going to be here in Kanaunaski. That's a big part of the day tomorrow, dedicated to the Russia-Ukraine war. So Carney is trying to paint Canada as a global leader, and he's trying to present a guest list, trying to line up some big names to show that we can be a convening power,

that we can bring people together and discuss some of the issues, even if it bothers some groups in Canada, there may be some domestic political blowback as a result. When these meetings end, typically there is some sort of joint communique that comes out and says, this is what we have agreed upon and we'll move forward from there. Canadian officials have said that they're not looking to produce that kind of letter. Why? Yeah, there will be no joint communique because they don't think they can get Trump to sign on to everything that they want to talk about. The last time Trump, Trudeau presented, I think it was 28 areas of agreement for everyone to sign on to, lots of climate stuff and Trump's hostile to

the environment as we know. So we withheld his signature, it didn't go well. Carney is trying to build a consensus. So there will be short, separate joint policy statements that will be released throughout the summit that most people have agreed to in advance. So there's not a lot of mystery here as to what people are going to go along with, because Carney is trying to be less antagonistic, if you will, frankly, with Trump. He's trying to project unity, G7 unity, when the world is really in a chaotic state. So rather than have Trump blow up and not go along with some things, some of the stuff that's

going to be released here may be more milquetoast, frankly, it won't necessarily be as ambitious as some past summits. So before I let you go, I mean, what is, what is the bar for success here? As you mentioned, the last time the Canada hosted the G7, there was an eruption. Trump left early, put out those tweets,

calling Justin Trudeau dishonest and weak in his words. So what is the bar for success, do you think? Well, I think it depends on what Trump does and what kind of Trump shows up. Do we get a hostile, pugilistic president or do we get someone who's softer, more amenable? And also for this country, it really depends on what happens with this trade deal.

That's what success looks like for this country. I mean, some of the senior leaders around the prime minister have been downplaying the possibility of getting a deal with Trump here on the sidelines of the summit. But when you look at the US guest list that was just published and sent to reporters, there's some interesting names on that list from the Canadian perspective. You're looking at US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, US Trade Representative James St. Greer. Will there be a deal today when Carney and Trump sit down later this morning?

Is it possible? When you have some of these folks here, they're not always involved in G7 summons. Is that a sign that there could be some deals brokered? So success for Canada, obviously moving forward on trade and tariffs, but also for the wider g7 Projecting unity and not letting Trump bog down the agenda and getting some big things done Even if it's difficult to get him on side, that's what success looks like JP. Thank you for this Thank you for having me JP Tasker senior reporter up at the CBC's parliamentary bureau. He was in Banff, Alberta.

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fundamental secret to good health. Listen to Bite Back wherever you get your podcasts. Best Momo Money is a professor of political science at the University of Waterloo. Peter McKay is a former minister of foreign affairs under Stephen Harper. He's been in the room in meetings like this and they both join us. Now, good morning to you both. Good morning, Matt. Good morning.

Besme, let's start with what's happening in the Middle East. Escalation in the conflict between Israel and Iran started last Friday. How do you think the G7 leaders will be watching this story as it develops minute by minute? Very closely. This is a major issue. Obviously, the actual ramifications of this tit for tat is problematic, but more importantly, I think as well for the G7 leaders is frankly the issue of oil prices. One of the key agenda items of the summit is really to try to advance the global economy. Everybody's suffering, particularly under the Trump terror force. So the focus on wanting to improve the global economy is a big issue,

but that's going to be highly problematic if oil prices start to go above $100 a barrel. So that is a big issue for all of the partners there. And I think they're going to put it in that context, at least the hope, I think, of many will be to sort of think about how can they bypass this big problem. And then the other issue, of course, is with Ukraine, which is also another agenda item, if moving on the Ukraine issue is a key priority, oil prices at a high level is just going to forestall any advancements in that peace process, particularly because that just means more oil revenue for Russia, and they can then

prolong the conflict. So I think there's a number of issues there. Peter McKay, there is a big long, we just heard this from JP, a big long agenda list of things on that agenda that these leaders are going to try to tackle. Do you think that all of that will be torpedoed, not just by what's happening in the Middle East, but by the issue of tariffs as well? Is that, is there, you can have a bunch of ideas that you want to talk about, but are there really just going to be a couple of things that are going to dominate discussions? I think that's right, Matt. I don't think that tariffs are going to figure as prominently in this discussion as they would have otherwise. As the old expression goes, it's events that have overtaken some of this agenda. And as Besmiss just said, there's a knock on effect to what's happening between Israel and Iran. Will it go to a broader conflict? The impact on energy,

ironically, this meeting happening in Alberta where energy is king and there's a big push obviously for Canada to become a global player, if not a global superpower when it comes to the export of oil and gas. And so, yes, tariffs probably will take a bigger role in the bilateral discussions as opposed to the overall agenda, because the conflict and the consequences of both what's happening with the invasion of Ukraine and the very real possibility that this could become a broader regional conflict, I think that has to take top of the table discussion away from some of the other issues that some world leaders have shown up hoping to push, particularly trade.

How big of a win do you think, and yet we hear that many senior officials in the trade file are traveling with the US president. How big of a win would it be for Prime Minister Mark Carney if he were to land some sort of deal when it comes to trade with the United States? I think it's no question that would be a big personal win for him early in his mandate. I think the officials behind the scene have the

best possibility of doing this because a lot of that work has already been done. It's pro forma. The fact that they're downplaying this tells me that there may be something in the works, at least something that could be announced, that shows progress. But it's almost Kafkaesque with this president. You just don't know what version will show up.

And this is almost not to make light of it, a bit like that Ben Siller movie, Meet the Parents. It's Meet the President. Some, for the very first it's Meet the President. Some for the very first time are going to look him in the eye and try to have a serious consequential discussion as JP alluded to in hopes of moving the dial away from an escalating

trade war that can cripple the Western economies. The last time, as we talked about, that Canada hosted the G7, Justin Trudeau was prime minister. How different can we expect prime minister Carney's leadership to be from what we have seen from the last liberal government? Oh, I think night and day. And as was alluded to, there's a certain amount of heft, respectability on the global scene

that was missing in the last Canadian prime minister. I think Mark Carney is going to try to very much get down to business as soon as this G7 officially kicks off, although there have been discussions already. I think you're seeing a bit of a bond happening between Mark Carney and Prime Minister Keir Starmer of the UK, and they've been able to move forward on a number of important initiatives that have been languishing. And so hopefully that good faith will spill over between Canada and the United States on the economic file. But one other thing I would just add quickly, Matt, and that is the

possibility that China is also going to force its way onto the agenda and their unfair trade practices and the impact that that's happening. The coming together of our adversaries, if you will, puts even more pressure on this meeting to have a positive outcome, not just amongst the G7, but some of the other participants, including Australia, including Ukraine in theory, and other countries who were there in hopes of getting caught in the backdraft of a unified front when it comes to the adversaries. Basma, you were saying that this is night and day compared to the G7 in 2018. Is there the possibility that Mark Carney could be kind of a Trump whisperer? People watched that Oval Office meeting wondering whether he would, in the vernacular,

get Zelensky. He did not. And so a lot a lot of people wonder what he can do with with this volatile US president. Yeah, I don't know about being a Trump, but certainly there is a very different leader in power today. And frankly, it's all about lack of rhetoric and more substance compared to the previous prime minister. In that way, I think we're seeing, of course, consensus issues and less controversial ones like climate change, which unfortunately Trump is not a believer in. Also, I think some gender issues, which again turned off the previous prime minister or the current president. So I think moving those kinds of normative issues and a controversial one like climate change is probably a good thing. And I think just the whole demeanor of Carney being more of a technocrat and less

of an ideologue I think is something that appeals to someone like Trump who sort of is used to having that kind of stiff individual across the table, whether it's a lawyer or other technocrats, I think it kind of appeals to Trump's style of negotiation. But I think what we're gonna see different here too is just a more focused agenda, less lofty, less unachievable goals. And so I think that's a welcome news

and it's gonna be a bit more productive than what we saw obviously in Charlevoix. And I think the success here will be, hopefully, to absolutely tame Trump. Nothing of a repeat, hopefully, like Charlevoix, where not only did Trump sort of mean tweet about the entire process on the plane out of Charlevoix, which I think was a disaster in terms of the optics

of the whole G7 communique. But I think the goal here of not having a communique and really focusing on these kind of joint goals is probably the best one can achieve under the circumstances of a totally divided world and frankly a leaderless one as well. Peter, can we talk about just briefly who else is there? As we talked about with JP, the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been invited to this meeting. One of the goals of the G7 is countering foreign interference. India has been accused of foreign interference.

In particular, the former Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, stood in the House of Commons and accused the Indian government of being involved in the killing of a Canadian citizen. Should Modi be here? I think he should, just given the size of their economy and the importance of India. And yes, it is. How do you square that with the murder of Hari Singh Niger and the accusations that

the Indian government at its highest levels was involved in this? Well, because they're accusations, we've never really seen anything that resembled hard evidence. But given what's at stake for the broader Canadian economy. And look, this is not to downplay the seriousness of the allegations and the fact that this has a very real domestic resonance within Canada, within the Liberal caucus for that matter. But still, I think it was the right call on balance to have the Prime Minister of India

there. I think if we hope to diversify trade, as was alluded to, we have to have India as part of that discussion. But I think just coming back to what Bessman just said, there has to be a bit of an appetizer suppressant in terms of what the outcome of one meeting is going to be. Even though all of these other issues have forced themselves onto the agenda or have been bubbling away, we can't overlook as well the fact that the Mexican president will be there as well to try to get that particular discussion around North American trade onto the agenda, as will

the Secretary General of NATO and Canada's very real commitment now to get to 2%. I think those are both incredibly ambitious agendas and tall orders for the prime minister. So making progress on any of these files, having some consequential substantial outcomes will be a win, but boy, oh boy, this is anything but certain and to mix metaphors, the prime minister's on very thin ice given this president's volatility.

So just very briefly, we're almost out of time. As I said, you're almost out of time. As I said, you've been in those rooms. Is success just damage limitation? Well, no, it's not damage limitation. Just in terms of avoiding an eruption. Well, that for sure, given the history and what has already been discussed that happened in Charlevoix, but I think showing even a little

bit of movement on the dial, just being able to register some notable progress the way the Prime Minister, Prime Minister Carney was able to do so with the UK. Having a few of those nuggets of progress to point to and anything on the trade file, I think, is going to be played up as a win. Will it be in the grand scheme of things? That remains to be seen.

Basma, very last word to you. What qualifies success here for the prime minister? I mean, I think avoiding any sort of blow up is absolutely a success, unfortunately. You know, the bar is low. But if we can get some movement on particularly some of the global economy issues, which everybody's suffering through, and no one wins. I mean, this is what I hope will be really related

to Donald Trump, which is no one's winning from this trade war. No one's winning from the uncertainty of the global economy. And so focusing on that, I think, would be a huge win for the prime minister and will really signify that, again, back to that technocratic view that he has of politics is that he's there to get stuff done on the thorny issues that frankly everybody agrees on, which is economic growth.

We'll be watching. It's good to speak with you both about this. Thank you both for being here. Pleasure, Matt. Thank you. Vesememomini is a professor of political science at the University of Waterloo. Peter McKay is the former Minister of Foreign Affairs under Prime Minister Stephen Harper. You've been listening to The Current Podcast. My name is Matt Galloway. Thanks for listening. I'll talk to you soon.